Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1012 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY OVER
VALLEYS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. WEAK DELTA BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THROUGH THE DELTA AND 15 MPH INLAND TO SACRAMENTO. THIS IS AT
LEAST PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS VERSUS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING OVER NORCAL. A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW WITH UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE IN
THE VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED MORE VALLEY AREAS WITH SOME MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY
MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROGGED WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW DAYS, ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTORM INTO THE VALLEY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AS RIDGING RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY WITH 70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
946 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WINDING DOWN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND MOSTLY BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY
DECREASING OVER WESTERN NV AND WE HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER A BIT
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY INCLUDING KTRK AND POSSIBLY
KLOL WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT. HOHMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GOOD INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR. IT PUSHED IN
FROM IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SIERRA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ELKO COUNTY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM TO 11PM THIS
EVENING. WE BUMPED UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECONDARY WAVE.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORM CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.LARGE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH STORMS HAVING A FAIRLY QUICK
STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY FROM THE NNE TO SSW DIRECTION FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF MULTIPLE
CELLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING GOOD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 5PM AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES WEST OF THE SIERRA.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES DOWN ON THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. WARMING ALOFT WILL CAP ANY
CONVECTION THAT STARTS TO GET GOING. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, SO
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVED TO MEDIUM THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
INCREASED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AND SOUTHERN NV. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY,
BUT COULD END UP EVEN COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER OR
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS SET UP.
FOR THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
MOSTLY NEAR THE SIERRA. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV, DRIER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO BUILD IN, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.
FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE BUILDING INTO CA-NV WILL
CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT, BUT BY SATURDAY
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BECOME TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. MJD
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21-01Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS THRU THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION AND THE MAIN TERMINALS AS DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR KMMH WHERE ISOLD
CB TOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK DECAYING OR STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THIS NEXT ESTF UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE LATEST
HRRR AND COSPA SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION IS MORPHING MORE INTO A
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKES. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGES, JUST UPPING POPS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
DELMARVA CONVECTION MOVES THRU THE PHILLY METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH. THEN DELAYING THE WESTERN PCPN ARRIVAL BY ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUNT OF TIME. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON OR CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG, BUT STILL MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. RAIN-COOLED AIR IN WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION CONSISTS OF TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP MUCH
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TUESDAYS WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE SFC FRONT
WASHES OUT. POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER N THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH-OUT. THERE COULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVEL NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A RESULT, KNOCKING A LITTLE OFF THE
HEAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE IT`S SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AS WELL. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY WITH THE FURTHER
NORTH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND THE ECMWF BEING
COOLER. FOR NOW WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL IMPACT OF FOG.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LLVL JET (50 KT AT 2000 FT AGL FROM THE HRRR) DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BETWEEN 02Z-08Z, WHICH WOULD WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER, THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE
MODEL. COULD NOT FIND ANY EVIDENCE IN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
THAT INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THEREFORE, DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO
VERIFY WITH LESS WIND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
UNCERTAINTY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS. EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT FROM W-SW TO W-NW WITH FROPA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE VWP AT KDOV AND KDIX ARE VERIFYING LESS THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING,E ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM. WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND AN INVERSION IN PLACE, WE WILL CANCEL THE SCA
FOR DELAWARE BAY.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND
STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CHOP. SCA
FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS DO NOT
SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS AROUND FOUR FEET TUESDAY EVENING, SCA EXTENSION UNLIKELY ATTM.
SEAS THEN AROUND THREE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TUESDAY IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
900 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
ONCE THE FEW REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY REQUIRES A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NIGHTTIME HOURLY TRENDS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
GENERALLY QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AND WINDS GENERALLY FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
642 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
GENERALLY QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AND WINDS GENERALLY FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
455 PM CDT
REPORTS CONTINUE TO COME IN OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANKAKEE COUNTY ARE
TAKING ON A WIND SIGNATURE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW
JET. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS MAY START TO SPREAD MORE
SOUTHEAST AS THESE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF
IROQUOIS...NEWTON...AND JASPER COUNTIES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE.
DEUBELBEISS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCT TSRA MOVING THROUGH 23-01 OR 02Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
A LINGERING BROKEN LINE OF TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA BETWEEN 23 AND
01 AND MAYBE 02Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN BROKEN SO IT MAY NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT WILL BE CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...SPOTTY TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE NEAR GYY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR BUT THEN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH BUT THE BAND TO
THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL TOWARD 01Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT
OF THE TERMINALS FOR MID EVENING WITH STEADY WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT TSRA CROSSING THE TERMINAL AREA
INTO EARLY EVENING...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
457 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
455 PM CDT
REPORTS CONTINUE TO COME IN OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANKAKEE COUNTY ARE
TAKING ON A WIND SIGNATURE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW
JET. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS MAY START TO SPREAD MORE
SOUTHEAST AS THESE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF
IROQUOIS...NEWTON...AND JASPER COUNTIES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE.
DEUBELBEISS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPING TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAYED OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
436 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPING TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAYED OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG A HENRY...TO GALESBURG...TO
FORT MADISON IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE/SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS AS THEY TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...THEN EXITING INTO INDIANA BY
AROUND 01Z. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. BY THAT
POINT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. DESPITE THIS...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.50 TO 1.75. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MONTHLY AND YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THINK WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
INSTEAD HIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HARD IN THE HWO...ZONE FORECAST...AND
ESF.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT
LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN AS
EVERYTHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE REGION FOR WE AND WED NIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IF THERE IS ANY PCPN THEN IT
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
GRIDS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE WORDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OF THUR AND
THUR NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. 1730Z RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAICS
SHOW A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY...SO THEY ARE OF LITTLE
USE TO THE FORECAST. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING FROM NEAR KORD TO KGBG AROUND 20Z. HAVE
TAILORED THE AVIATION FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...FEATURING TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z AT KPIA...THEN
BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z FURTHER SOUTH AT THE I-72 TERMINALS. ONCE THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS PASSES...MANY MODELS HINT THAT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED THAT WITH PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS THROUGH THE 08-09Z
TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT HAVE GONE DRY WITH A VFR CEILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS SURMISED YDA...IA BORN MCS OVERNIGHT CONTS TO FESTER EWD ACRS CNTRL
THROUGH NE IL W/RECENT LINE INTENSIFICATION ALG OUTFLW BNDRY NOTED THROUGH
CNTRL IL ALG NOSE OF RTNG LL THETA-E RIDGE. HWVR DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION HAMPERED CONSIDERABLY BOTH BY EWD SPILLING CIRRUS
SHIELD AND SLOWED BNDRY LYR MOISTENING. THUS SUSPECT A CONTD SLOW
EWD DECAY OF ADVG LINE COMING OUT OF NE IL.
LT AFTN/EVE FCST BECOMES EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL BASED ON
SUPPOSITION OF AIRMASS RECOVERY POST OUTFLW WHICH SEEMS TO BE
ONGOING ATTM OVR NW IL. CERTAINLY MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED
DVLPG ACRS MUCH OF MO HWVR STALLING SWWD FLANK OF OUTFLW LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO STEER ANY AFTN SVR RISK WELL SOUTH OF CWA...THROUGH
SRN IL/CNTRL IN. WILL RETAIN SOME MEASURE OF CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
GRIDDED FCST BASED ON 12Z HRRR WHICH DOES INDICATE SOME RENEWED
DVLPMNT PSBL OVR NW IN/SW MI AFT 21Z HWVR ADDNL CUTS MAY BE
NECESSARY BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS THAT LEAD
TO SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH WELL DEVELOPED
MCS. TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 40 KT LLJ SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATER TODAY AND ADVECTING A VERY THETA-E RICH ENVIRONMENT
INTO OUR AREA. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS JUST UPSTREAM AND STRENGTHENING
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORTING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME RAIN VIRTUALLY ASSURED FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA AS THIS FRONT INTERSECTS EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING.
EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS THE WILDCARD THAT COULD BE
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SEVERE RISK. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
HAVE ALTERED COURSE A BIT. INSTEAD OF SHUNTING THIS CONVECTION INTO
MICHIGAN EARLY AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY ACTIVITY AROUND CHICAGO
LATER IN THE DAY...THEY SUGGEST THIS MCV WILL SPAWN CONVECTION IN
OUR CWA A BIT EARLIER ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BE THE
MAIN "SHOW" FOR OUR AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MORE PRECARIOUS SEVERE
RISK GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING/COLD FRONT AND MAKES DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS
LIKELY...JUST LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
INSTABILITY TODAY AND NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT PREFRONTAL
CLOUDS/REDUCED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM YIELDING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND
ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LLJ SUGGESTS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
SEGMENTS/LINES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED LAPSE RATES/CAPE VALUES AND WARM/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE IF ANY 0-1 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A
LOW...BUT NON-ZERO...TORNADO THREAT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. PWATS ARE NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 17C. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH-SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND RELATIVELY HIGH FFG SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AND WILL FORGO
A WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
TO SUMMARIZE...STILL A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY WITH
SCOPE OF EVENT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM MCS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND
POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. TIMING OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
FLOODING THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS FAR NRN ALB/ TO
FURTHER ENTRENCH ANTECEDENT LONGWAVE AXIS ACRS GRTLKS MON THROUGH
TUE. OVERLAP OF LAGGED LOW LEVEL ISODROSOTHERMAL WITH LEADING EDGE
APPROACH OF M13-15C MIDTROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL...LENDS SUCCINCT ZONE
OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTN EXTNDG FM LONDON ONT/SLICING
THROUGH CWA NE TO SW CORNER INTO CNTL IL. RESULTANT MLCAPES IN
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND 25-35 KTS MAGNITUDE 0-6 KM SHEAR/FAVORABLE
30-40M/12 HR HFC/FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENT QUAD POSITIONING INTO
100-110 KT UL JETLET LIFTNG NEWD THROUGH SERN MI INTO FAR SERN ONT.
LESSER MENTION WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER EXPANSIVE/NOTABLY MORE
STABLE LAKE SHADOW ACRS FAR NWRN CWA INLAND NORTH OF TOLL ROAD...IN
VEERING TO WLY FLOW. FAIRLY HIGH POPS SRN/FAR SERN CWA AS CONVECTION
MATURES/ORGANIZES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY QUICK DEMISE
AS CONVECTION TO BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIURNAL CYCLE ALONG WITH SERLY
COLD POOL PUSH THROUGH CWA. WHILE ISOLD SVR RISK NOT ENTIRELY
ZERO...SUSPECT SUB/NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTS 40-50
MPH PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN PRIOR OVERTURNED ATMOS FM LT SUN
CONVECTION. CARVED OUT SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF NILL SENSIBLE WX
TUE NIGHT TIL WED AFTN AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LATER TIMING OF
NEXT NRN STREAM FEATURE /CURRENTLY NEAR 50N/155W/ INTO NRN UPR
GRTLKS. LACK OF GOMEX INFLUX AND HIGH BELTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
GARNERS DOUBT TOWARDS BLENDED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS AND HAVE
REDUCED/RELEGATED TO AFTN/ERLY WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER LATEST MODEL
RUNS EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD...THOUGH UNSETTLED PD LIKELY AS PIECEMEAL
UPSTREAM EJECTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS VORTEX MOVES ONSHORE CA COAST
WED AM...LIFTING OUT LAGGARDLY IN POS TILT FASHION ACRS MIDDLE CONUS
INTO THE WEEKEND. NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
POOLING OF MID/UPR 60S DPS FM CORN BELT INTO CNTL/NRN IN AND HIR
THAN CLIMO MEAN ENSEMBLE POP AVGS NECESSITATE BROADBRUSH MENTION
DYS5-7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MURKY NR TERM OWING TO RAPIDLY DECAYING OUTFLW BNDRY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA AND NEW ELEVATED DVLPMNT ALG WRN FLANK OF BUBBLE
HIGH CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR NRN IL. UPSTREAM AIRMASS ACRS NRN MO/SW IL
QUITE UNSTABLE AT THIS HOUR W/ROBUST LLJ IN PLACE AHD OF MCV
TRACKING ACRS NRN LK MI. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF LLJ XPC CONTD
REDVLPMNT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH NW IN/SW MI BFR FOCUSING SWWD FM
NE MO THROUGH CNTRL IL BY MID AFTN. THIS SHLD SPURN SOME EMBEDDED
STRATIFORM SHRA ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING YET SHIFT THE
THUNDER THREAT TO DOWNSTATE IL/IN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1017 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS SURMISED YDA...IA BORN MCS OVERNIGHT CONTS TO FESTER EWD ACRS CNTRL
THROUGH NE IL W/RECENT LINE INTENSIFICATION ALG OUTFLW BNDRY NOTED THROUGH
CNTRL IL ALG NOSE OF RTNG LL THETA-E RIDGE. HWVR DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION HAMPERED CONSIDERABLY BOTH BY EWD SPILLING CIRRUS
SHIELD AND SLOWED BNDRY LYR MOISTENING. THUS SUSPECT A CONTD SLOW
EWD DECAY OF ADVG LINE COMING OUT OF NE IL.
LT AFTN/EVE FCST BECOMES EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL BASED ON
SUPPOSITION OF AIRMASS RECOVERY POST OUTFLW WHICH SEEMS TO BE
ONGOING ATTM OVR NW IL. CERTAINLY MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED
DVLPG ACRS MUCH OF MO HWVR STALLING SWWD FLANK OF OUTFLW LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO STEER ANY AFTN SVR RISK WELL SOUTH OF CWA...THROUGH
SRN IL/CNTRL IN. WILL RETAIN SOME MEASURE OF CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
GRIDDED FCST BASED ON 12Z HRRR WHICH DOES INDICATE SOME RENEWED
DVLPMNT PSBL OVR NW IN/SW MI AFT 21Z HWVR ADDNL CUTS MAY BE
NECESSARY BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA
LATER TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS THAT LEAD TO SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH WELL DEVELOPED MCS.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT 40 KT LLJ SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
LATER TODAY AND ADVECTING A VERY THETA-E RICH ENVIRONMENT INTO OUR
AREA. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS JUST UPSTREAM AND STRENGTHENING RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORTING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME RAIN VIRTUALLY ASSURED FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA AS THIS FRONT INTERSECTS EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
THIS EVENING.
EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS THE WILDCARD THAT COULD BE
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SEVERE RISK. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
HAVE ALTERED COURSE A BIT. INSTEAD OF SHUNTING THIS CONVECTION INTO
MICHIGAN EARLY AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY ACTIVITY AROUND CHICAGO
LATER IN THE DAY...THEY SUGGEST THIS MCV WILL SPAWN CONVECTION IN
OUR CWA A BIT EARLIER ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BE THE
MAIN "SHOW" FOR OUR AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MORE PRECARIOUS SEVERE
RISK GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING/COLD FRONT AND MAKES DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS
LIKELY...JUST LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
INSTABILITY TODAY AND NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT PREFRONTAL
CLOUDS/REDUCED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM YIELDING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND
ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LLJ SUGGESTS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
SEGMENTS/LINES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED LAPSE RATES/CAPE VALUES AND WARM/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE IF ANY 0-1 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A
LOW...BUT NON-ZERO...TORNADO THREAT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. PWATS ARE NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 17C. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH-SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND RELATIVELY HIGH FFG SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AND WILL FORGO
A WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
TO SUMMARIZE...STILL A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY WITH
SCOPE OF EVENT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM MCS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND
POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. TIMING OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
FLOODING THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS FAR NRN ALB/ TO
FURTHER ENTRENCH ANTECEDENT LONGWAVE AXIS ACRS GRTLKS MON THROUGH
TUE. OVERLAP OF LAGGED LOW LEVEL ISODROSOTHERMAL WITH LEADING EDGE
APPROACH OF M13-15C MIDTROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL...LENDS SUCCINCT ZONE
OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTN EXTNDG FM LONDON ONT/SLICING
THROUGH CWA NE TO SW CORNER INTO CNTL IL. RESULTANT MLCAPES IN
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND 25-35 KTS MAGNITUDE 0-6 KM SHEAR/FAVORABLE
30-40M/12 HR HFC/FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENT QUAD POSITIONING INTO
100-110 KT UL JETLET LIFTNG NEWD THROUGH SERN MI INTO FAR SERN ONT.
LESSER MENTION WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER EXPANSIVE/NOTABLY MORE
STABLE LAKE SHADOW ACRS FAR NWRN CWA INLAND NORTH OF TOLL ROAD...IN
VEERING TO WLY FLOW. FAIRLY HIGH POPS SRN/FAR SERN CWA AS CONVECTION
MATURES/ORGANIZES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY QUICK DEMISE
AS CONVECTION TO BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIURNAL CYCLE ALONG WITH SERLY
COLD POOL PUSH THROUGH CWA. WHILE ISOLD SVR RISK NOT ENTIRELY
ZERO...SUSPECT SUB/NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTS 40-50
MPH PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN PRIOR OVERTURNED ATMOS FM LT SUN
CONVECTION. CARVED OUT SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF NILL SENSIBLE WX
TUE NIGHT TIL WED AFTN AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LATER TIMING OF
NEXT NRN STREAM FEATURE /CURRENTLY NEAR 50N/155W/ INTO NRN UPR
GRTLKS. LACK OF GOMEX INFLUX AND HIGH BELTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
GARNERS DOUBT TOWARDS BLENDED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS AND HAVE
REDUCED/RELEGATED TO AFTN/ERLY WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER LATEST MODEL
RUNS EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD...THOUGH UNSETTLED PD LIKELY AS PIECEMEAL
UPSTREAM EJECTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS VORTEX MOVES ONSHORE CA COAST
WED AM...LIFTING OUT LAGGARDLY IN POS TILT FASHION ACRS MIDDLE CONUS
INTO THE WEEKEND. NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
POOLING OF MID/UPR 60S DPS FM CORN BELT INTO CNTL/NRN IN AND HIR
THAN CLIMO MEAN ENSEMBLE POP AVGS NECESSITATE BROADBRUSH MENTION
DYS5-7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MCS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHETHER THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA
OR A SECONDARY BATCH WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY GIVEN GOOD FORCING IN VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY
WHEN. CURRENT THINKING IS TO STICK WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
(AROUND 21Z FOR KSBN AND 23Z FOR KFWA) BUT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE FINE-TUNED LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CATEGORY
ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS OF 18Z CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATING A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO LATE
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND FOCUSED THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA
OF FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE MEAN 2-8KM WINDS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FURTHER NORTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING
2C TO 4 BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPIN EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY. THIS LOW THEN STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN INTO THE 80S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 86 64 87 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 62 85 63 87 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 61 84 62 86 / 50 10 20 20
LBL 63 85 64 86 / 50 10 20 20
HYS 63 85 64 88 / 40 10 10 10
P28 67 88 67 88 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS OF 18Z CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATING A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO LATE
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND FOCUSED THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA
OF FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE MEAN 2-8KM WINDS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FURTHER NORTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING
2C TO 4 BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE EVENT, WE WILL SEE
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN-GEM)
ALL SHOW THE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT EVENT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, AND AS SUCH, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND EVEN REMOVED THEM EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ADJACENT ROCKIES...INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN.
IN THE DAYS 4-7 TIME FRAME (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), POPULATED
BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED,
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH WHILE A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES COME DOWN.
AFTER FRIDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES REALLY CHALLENGING. WE COULD
ACTUALLY ENTER ANOTHER FAIRLY WET PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT RIGHT OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. THERE COULD
BE A FAIRLY DECENT, DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IF THIS PATTERN
PANS OUT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (JUNE 13-15 TIME FRAME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 86 64 87 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 62 85 63 87 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 61 84 62 86 / 50 10 20 20
LBL 63 85 64 86 / 50 10 20 20
HYS 63 85 64 88 / 40 10 10 10
P28 67 88 67 88 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN
KANSAS. EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A 500MB THERMAL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. AS OF 14Z CONVECTION WAS ALREADY
APPEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS THERMAL
TROUGH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN WYOMING. A 700MB
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL THINK THAT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT. MODELS DO SOMEWHAT
AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AN 85 KT
250-HPA JET WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE (30-40 KT).
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SUPERCELL TRANSIENT STRUCTURES,
BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS UPSCALE GROWTH. PWATS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
THERE ALSO COULD BE WET MICROBURSTS AS LINEAR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES ARE EVENTUALLY REALIZED. THE OTHER THREAT IS HAIL,
WHICH COULD BE UP TO GOLF BALLS OR PERHAPS EVEN 2" IF CELL
ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN DISCRETE LONG ENOUGH BEFORE EVOLVING INTO
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE TOWARDS
03Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
HEADING INTO THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE EVENT, WE WILL SEE
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN-GEM)
ALL SHOW THE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT EVENT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, AND AS SUCH, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND EVEN REMOVED THEM EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ADJACENT ROCKIES...INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN.
IN THE DAYS 4-7 TIME FRAME (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), POPULATED
BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED,
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH WHILE A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES COME DOWN.
AFTER FRIDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES REALLY CHALLENGING. WE COULD
ACTUALLY ENTER ANOTHER FAIRLY WET PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT RIGHT OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. THERE COULD
BE A FAIRLY DECENT, DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IF THIS PATTERN
PANS OUT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (JUNE 13-15 TIME FRAME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 64 84 64 / 20 50 10 10
GCK 91 62 83 63 / 30 40 10 10
EHA 90 61 82 62 / 50 50 10 20
LBL 92 63 84 64 / 30 50 10 20
HYS 90 63 84 64 / 20 40 10 10
P28 95 67 87 67 / 10 60 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE
SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND
FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY, BUT WILL STALL OUT
AND WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND THE FRONT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AND
HAVE INSERTED TSRA/CB TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 65 84 / 10 20 50 10
GCK 65 91 63 83 / 20 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 63 82 / 20 30 50 20
LBL 66 93 65 84 / 10 30 60 20
HYS 66 89 62 84 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 68 87 / 0 10 60 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PER TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR AREA IS PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER...
THOUGH...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH IF IT MANAGES
TO MAKE IT DOWN HERE. ANYWAYS...DID ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS AS A
POSSIBILITY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ALSO BEEFED UP THE FOG A BIT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FINALLY...USED THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS TO UPDATE THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE ALL HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
THE ISSUANCE OF AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WHILE THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...IT HAS
EFFECTIVELY MOVED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THANKS TO THE MANY ROUNDS
OF STORMS THAT CROSSED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FACT THAT THESE STORMS MOVED THROUGH AT VARYING TIMES KEPT THEM
FROM BEING WORSE BY SAPPING THE INSTABILITY IN STAGES AND LEAVING
DEBRIS CLOUDS BEHIND TO HINDER ANY REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...THERE
WERE PLENTY OF REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE FROM GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO OF
SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. NOW...IN THESE STORM/S
WAKE...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES DEEPER
INTO THE STATE. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE CLOUDS
THIN LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THANKS TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE NEARLY UNIFORMLY IN THE MID 60S
WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
POPS/SKY/WX/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEAR TERM DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTION...BUT WITH A FRONT
CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STILL TO THE WEST. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATE
TO THE ZFP AND HWO REMOVING THE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS AND THEN HI RES MODELS HAVE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. BASED UPON TRENDS...IT SEEMS
THIS EARLIER LINE HAS REAPED A BUNCH OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER.
HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z.
WITH A BIT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR WOULD
SUGGEST THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN NEARLY
WASHING OUT ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME
AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT ENOUGH AND SLIDES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RATHER
UNREMARKABLE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY WHILE OTHER WEAK BATCHES
SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE - INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONGEST IN THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL BRUSH PAST THE STATE AND
SOME BETTER ENERGY CLUSTERS MAY MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST
KENTUCKY TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS NORTHERN WAVE...THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WOULD THEN
FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT LIKELY NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BENEATH IT. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT...A BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY AT MID WEEK WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS AND RATHER WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME AIR
MASS CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH...AS A COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS NEARBY...LIKELY HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE UPON US THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH RELIEF
OFFERED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
NOW THAT THE STORMS ARE THROUGH THE AREA THE CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN
LATER TONIGHT WILL HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME RENEWED SHOWERS AROUND.
THIS IS REPRESENTED BY VCSH IN THE TAFS. LATER...EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY BECOME THICK FOR A TIME AT THE TAF SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS OUT ON
TUESDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR WX EXPECTED
BENEATH SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE BULK OF
THE EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY SHOULD
PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
825 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WHILE THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...IT HAS
EFFECTIVELY MOVED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THANKS TO THE MANY ROUNDS
OF STORMS THAT CROSSED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FACT THAT THESE STORMS MOVED THROUGH AT VARYING TIMES KEPT THEM
FROM BEING WORSE BY SAPPING THE INSTABILITY IN STAGES AND LEAVING
DEBRIS CLOUDS BEHIND TO HINDER ANY REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...THERE
WERE PLENTY OF REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE FROM GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO OF
SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. NOW...IN THESE STORM/S
WAKE...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES DEEPER
INTO THE STATE. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE CLOUDS
THIN LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THANKS TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE NEARLY UNIFORMLY IN THE MID 60S
WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
POPS/SKY/WX/QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEAR TERM DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTION...BUT WITH A FRONT
CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STILL TO THE WEST. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATE
TO THE ZFP AND HWO REMOVING THE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS AND THEN HI RES MODELS HAVE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. BASED UPON TRENDS...IT SEEMS
THIS EARLIER LINE HAS REAPED A BUNCH OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER.
HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z.
WITH A BIT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR WOULD
SUGGEST THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN NEARLY
WASHING OUT ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME
AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT ENOUGH AND SLIDES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RATHER
UNREMARKABLE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY WHILE OTHER WEAK BATCHES
SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE - INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONGEST IN THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL BRUSH PAST THE STATE AND
SOME BETTER ENERGY CLUSTERS MAY MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST
KENTUCKY TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS NORTHERN WAVE...THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WOULD THEN
FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT LIKELY NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BENEATH IT. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT...A BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY AT MID WEEK WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS AND RATHER WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME AIR
MASS CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH...AS A COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS NEARBY...LIKELY HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE UPON US THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH RELIEF
OFFERED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
NOW THAT THE STORMS ARE THROUGH THE AREA THE CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN
LATER TONIGHT WILL HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME RENEWED SHOWERS AROUND.
THIS IS REPRESENTED BY VCSH IN THE TAFS. LATER...EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY BECOME THICK FOR A TIME AT THE TAF SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS OUT ON
TUESDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR WX EXPECTED
BENEATH SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE BULK OF
THE EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY SHOULD
PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTED A WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAIN
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUD WISE THIS AFTERNOON IS
FEATURING HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. RIGHT NOW PAYING ATTENTION TO WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
AND ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS LIFTING MECHANISM. WSR-88D SHOWS SOME VERY
SMALL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
AFTER DENSE FOG INUNDATED PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BASED OF VIS SAT
AND AREA WEBCAMS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED WITH MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED DEEPER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG. WARM AND SOME WHAT MUGGY
DAY STILL ON TAP WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
COULD ALSO HELP TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER...HOWEVER BASED ON MESO MODELS THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLIGHT SIDE. INCREASE IN CIRRUS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP ZFP AND HWO TO REMOVE MORNING
FOG WORDING. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AREAS SEEING VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. HIGH PRESSURE
IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TODAY HELPING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A ISSUE AT TAF SITES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW DID ADD VCTS TO SYM AT 13Z AND
JKL/SJS AT 15Z...BUT KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SOUTH
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO TRIED TO LEAN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. THINKING MOST SITES WILL SEE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
AFTER DENSE FOG INUNDATED PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BASED OF VIS SAT
AND AREA WEBCAMS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED WITH MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED DEEPER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG. WARM AND SOME WHAT MUGGY
DAY STILL ON TAP WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
COULD ALSO HELP TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER...HOWEVER BASED ON MESO MODELS THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLIGHT SIDE. INCREASE IN CIRRUS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP ZFP AND HWO TO REMOVE MORNING
FOG WORDING. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING VIS AND OR CIGS TO AIRPORT MINS
AT ALL BUT SJS WHERE THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. THE LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER
16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR VIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN SYM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING VIS AND OR CIGS TO AIRPORT MINS
AT ALL BUT SJS WHERE THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. THE LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER
16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR VIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN SYM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE
MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S EACH
AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM
SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND LIKELY
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LOWERING VIS THROUGH 12Z. LOW
CLOUDS LEFT PARTS OF THE REGION FROM NEAR SJS WEST ALONG THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR NORTH TO NEAR SYM SUPPRESSED AS FAR AS TEMPS ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THESE AREAS HAD HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AND VIS AND OR CIG BELOW
AIRPORT MINS ACROSS THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE SJS AND SYM BY 9Z OR
SO. OTHER NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR FOG...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY WORSE VIS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY
AFTER 16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR VIS WITH THIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN
SYM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON
EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON
EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE GENERATING A ROUGHLY 995MB LOW THAT
SHOULD MOVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE FINAL TRACK WILL
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION. A STOUT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BRING 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20C PER THE NAM AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING COOLER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF TO REACH OR EXCEED 80F TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT
CAPE LEVELS EXCEEDING 1000J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CAP TO
OVERCOME...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO JUST
THAT. MODELS DO PICK UP ON THIS WITH THE NAM...GEM...GFS AND ECMWF
ALL SHOWING MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF QPF OUT AHEAD OF A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AHEAD AND ALONG THE SHORTWAVE WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 40-50KTS
AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A
TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/CHANCES OF STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG IF THEY DO FORM AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS GREATER.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES LATER TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT AS MODELS
INDICATE A QUICK HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ALONG THE CAPE
GRADIENT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA. THREAT WILL
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT AND A VERY LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL THREAT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ARE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT IS GOOD. WITH THE STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED QUICK
HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEICHE
ACTIVITY.
WED LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH SKIES OVERALL CLEARING.
THU ALSO LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH ENHANCED QPF POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE
BLANCA IS TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE FRONT AND THE SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS QUITE LOW AND OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SUN...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MON. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.AVIATION...
THE INITIAL BAND OF DECAYING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL APART OVER SEMICH DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING 22-03Z TIME WINDOW. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LOWER
CIGS FROM VFR MIDCLOUD INTO BROKEN MVFR 030-040 BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE 22-03Z TIME WINDOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWER AND PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 6Z
TONIGHT. BOTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING DUE
TO BR/HZ.
FOR DTW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME
NUMEROUS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY THEN
PERSIST INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE FOR A LOW MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 AFTER 22Z...HIGH
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRAS BETWEEN 23Z-3Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1222 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A NOWCAST
FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR
AND AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
RESIDES WITHIN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH OF M 59 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER.
OBSERVATIONAL PRODUCTS THIS MORNING SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MCV IN
PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE IS WELL
SUPPORTED ALOFT AND RESIDES WITHIN THE HEART OF MAIN 1000-500MB
HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE. FOR TODAY...MAIN SUPPORT FOR THIS MCV ALOFT
WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT 18Z...OVER GEORGIAN BAY AT 00Z THIS EVENING. NWP DATA SUPPORTS A
ROBUST MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER. MODELS FORECAST THAT 0-6
KM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/0-1 KM WINDSPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS/0-0.5
KM WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE VALIDITY OF THE EXACT
MAGNITUDES WITH LACK OF SAMPLING IN THE RAOB NETWORK...BUT PRETTY
SAFE TO SAY THAT HIGH END WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH EJECTION OF IA/MO LLJ MAX
TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST THING TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WELL THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...GIVEN THE SHIELD OF OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD PUSHING OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL FORCING. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 07.12Z
KDTX RAOB SUPPORTS VIRTUALLY NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
RELATIVE BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES OF THE INBOUND
PARCELS ARE OFF OF THE STABLE/DRY ANTICYCLONE. NAM IS ADVERTISING
RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN BUFR SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
PRESERVATION OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN HAPPEN GIVEN
MIDLEVEL AIRMASS REPLACEMENT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT EVEN IF MARGINAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AND STORMS CAN POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA....THAN SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MODE MAY FAVOR A SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELL
MODE EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLES. A PLAN VIEW CUT OF A PSEUDO MIXED
LAYER CAPE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT 750 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONFLUENCE STREAMLINES/MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF MCV AND DRIVING
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FLARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IS
19-23Z.
WHAT IS OF BETTER CERTAINTY IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MIDLEVEL JET IMPULSE ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALL RESPONSE WILL BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL IN ALLOWING A BETTER THETA E RIDGE TO ROLL/FOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF M 59 COINCIDENT WITH THE END OF
PEAK HEATING. NAM AND RAP BOTH ADVERTISE THAT RICHER LOW LEVEL THETA
E CONTENT WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT. VARIOUS
HIGH RESOLUTION/DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE LEAD
EDGE OF THIS THETA E GRADIENT/SECONDARY WARM FRONT REGION AS A
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WITH FORECASTING THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS
POOR HANDLING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA. OVERALL....TIMING OUTLINED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 22-
02Z LOOKS VERY GOOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM MULTICELL STRUCTURES FOR THIS SOUTHERN/LATER
ACTIVITY TO THAT OF LINE SEGEMENTS AND POSSIBLE BOW STRUCTURES.
PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS ON TRACK AS WELL AS SECONDARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND A 2
PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY MID LEVELS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING DEPTHS REACHING 850 MB YESTERDAY...BUT THE 850 MB TEMP
CAME IN AT BIT COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AT 9 C. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ENERGY TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PW VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN 1.75 INCHES TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. DEVELOPING DEEP AND
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS EVEN
DOWN LOW AT 850 MB...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE ADVERTISED EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME A LOT OF WARM
AIR...AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE ABOVE 14000 KFT...AND 700 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE
MAX FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPES MOSTLY BELOW
1000 J/KG. MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY ADVERTISED SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND MORE LIKELY LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
ATTEMPTS TO FOLD OVER AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. GOOD
0-1 KM LOW LEVEL WIND BULK SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH WARM
FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAIN THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CAPE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO DRYING OUT PROCESS OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED THE
INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
SOME CONCERN THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD STRUGGLE WITH THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INTERACT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BROAD SCALE SUPPORT FOR
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE TROUGH AND THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SETTING UP ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. THE MAIN
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST DURING MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MID LEVELS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE. MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR
10C WILL COMBINE WITH 500 MB COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP 850 MB LI NEAR
ZERO. A NUDGE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET WILL
BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO TOUCH OFF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN GET ADDED TO THE MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. MODEL CAPE PROJECTIONS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AVAILABLE AND AS
500 MB TEMPS SETTLE AROUND -15C...ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR 8-9 JUNE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IN THE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A BROAD/WEAK REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SPOKES
OF ENHANCED TROUGHINESS HAVING LOW PREDICTABILITY. THAT LEAVES THE
THUMB REGION AS THE ONLY TARGET AREA FOR A POP FORECAST MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN CHANCE DUE TO ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING IN FROM
NORTHERN LOWER AND DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION...A LITTLE LESS SO IN THE DETROIT AREA NEAR THE
LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZE.
TUESDAY WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THANKS
TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE EXIT TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND ON THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 80/LOWS AROUND 60.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE IN THE GREAT LAKES DURING
WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER DYNAMICALLY IN THE MODELS THAN THE
ONE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE QUALITY. MEAN RH
FIELDS IN THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THEN APPEAR UNDERDONE WITH AN
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SEEMS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT AS 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 9C AND 500
MB TEMPS NEAR -7C ARE SHOWN SLIDING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.
AFTER ANOTHER BREAK POST FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE
MORE THAN HINTS AT A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE REMNANTS OF "BLANCA" CURRENTLY
OFF BAJA AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING MID
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A MODERATE
INCREASE IN WIND AND WAVES MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
HURON. MORE IMPORTANT FOR MARINERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
ARE LIKELY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS SET TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAS SPREAD THRU ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITHIN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE
ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
OUR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL NOT CLEAR OUR
CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REPRESENTED IN THE GOING
FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM WEST OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. WILL NEED TO RELY ON SOME CLEARING TO PRODUCE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CLEARING/INSTABILITY EVOLVES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
...SHOWERS MOVING IN...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE WORKING ACROSS THE NC PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SWATH OF MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ STRETCHED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BACK
THROUGH IOWA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT. FORCING IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND OF COURSE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND SFC LOW. GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA/MO...WITH LITTLE TO NONE FROM NRN WI AND
AREAS NORTH OF THERE. THUNDER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNEAPOLIS...BUT WAS MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THERE. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT 00Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWS HOW DRY WE CURRENTLY ARE...WITH PWATS AT 0.32". THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING...BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE UPSTREAM IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT ROLLS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY...PUSHING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WAA/DPVA AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION (TO 1.75" PWATS)
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. BEST FORCING IS TIED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM MCV FROM CONVECTION IN SRN MN/IA...WHICH ROLLS RIGHT ACROSS
NRN LOWER. CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND MODEL SFC TD`S TOO
HIGH...LIKELY DENYING THEIR INSISTENCE ON CREATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALL THE HINTS FOR THIS RESIDE WELL SOUTH FROM SRN LOWER
BACK THROUGH NRN IN/IL...WITHIN STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET AND
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.
FOR US...WE HAVE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FIRST...WHICH WILL HOLD
OFF THE START TIME FOR SHOWERS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE
THAT A LATE MORNING START ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN NRN LOWER
IS GOOD...PUSHING THROUGH NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...A RESULT OF POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN EASTERN WI (BEHIND THE INITIAL CURRENT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION). THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY BE SUSTAINED ALONG
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES US TONIGHT. THE KEY IS HOW FAST THE FRONT
GETS HERE...A NEBULOUS PART OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TREND WILL BE
FOR DRYING HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH...WARMING UP PRIOR TO THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS
NE LOWER...AND WARMING UP BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINS WILL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED WHILE RAINING...BUT CAN
SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF NRN
LOWER...AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER.
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S...LOWER 60S FAR SE IN
DOWNSLOPING AND LAST TO COOL LOCALES BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD MAYBE BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THAT (AS USUAL) IS DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER SHOT AT STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING AS WE WELCOME THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AS OVERALL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN FINDS ITSELF BENEATH THE
FAMILIAR REGIME OF PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. IN THIS CASE...IT
STILL APPEARS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PAY THE AREA A VISIT...WITH
THE FIRST AND MOST PRONOUNCED ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON (TIED TO A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY)...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY IS A NOTABLE ONE...WITH PWAT VALUES TAKING A DIVE FROM VERY
HIGH LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES TOWARD SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
"NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - GENERALLY IN THE 0.9 INCH RANGE.
THAT IS NOTED DOWN LOW BY A DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BACK
THROUGH THE 50S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLAVOR FOR MONDAY...AS WE
AWAIT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING AFTER 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF
THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE STILL LOOKS TO SPILL
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP STEEPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL WHILE WEAK
GRADIENT/LIGHTER WIND REGIME LIKELY ALLOWS FOR SOME TURNING OF THE
WINDS ONSHORE LOCALLY. BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW MEETING UP LAKE
HURON ONSHORE COMPONENT LOOKS TO DO ITS USUAL THING OF FORCING
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF BETTER POOLING OF MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 800J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS NOTED INTO INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AS WELL (AS WE
OFTEN SEE IN BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW REGIMES)...WITH INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT LESS BUT PUSHING 500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT
WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK PUSH OF BETTER UPPER FORCING (MAINLY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING)...AND THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DIURNAL
UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS TO
OUR WEST OVER WISCONSIN BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY TRY ITS BEST TO SNEAK OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF IT WILL FALL APART
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH CERTAINLY HAVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING WILL HELP A LITTLE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LIMITED
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH GIVEN LOW FREEZING/WET BULB 0
LEVELS DOWN NEAR 9KFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES PERHAPS NEARING 30
KNOTS FOR A TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORMS PUT OUT
SOME SMALLER HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...
THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND BETTER
LAPSE RATES SWINGING THROUGH...FEEL THE NEED TO EXTEND SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. CLEARING AND REMAINING HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE (HELPED ALONG WHEREVER IT HAPPENS TO RAIN) STRONGLY
ARGUES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION...WITH
SOME OF THAT POTENTIALLY RATHER DENSE WITH A POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES
COMPONENT. AFTER THAT...GETTING A GOOD VIBE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ROLLS OVERHEAD.
THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED
RIBBON OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES UP INTO THE REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIED TO QUITE THE PROGRESSIVE/STRONG
SHORTWAVE RUNNING THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONG GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE UP THIS
WAY...BUT BASED ON THE SETUP HONESTLY THINK THIS MAY BE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO FOLD OVER FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD DOWN INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RACING
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WE CAN
SNEAK THIS FAR NORTH...BUT STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT DO AT
LEAST GIVE ONE PAUSE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
TO SURVIVE THE JOURNEY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURPRISE...SURPRISE. AS EXPECTED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGLY TRENDED AGAINST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...OWING TO BETTER AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THUS FORCING OUR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTHEAST AREAS FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TREND IS FOR A RATHER NICE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...COMPLETE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS
GIVEN AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR (AKA WARM DAYS...COOLISH NIGHTS). RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...THOUGH STILL LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. CERTAINLY A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID/MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THRU OUR STATE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD CONTINUE TO SWING THRU
THE NRN GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE LOW CENTER FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
WATER SFC...BUT CAN SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE NW LOWER SHORELINE...AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT...AND WINDS START TO SUBSIDE AS
THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A
WEAKISH GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1222 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A NOWCAST
FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR
AND AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
RESIDES WITHIN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH OF M 59 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER.
OBSERVATIONAL PRODUCTS THIS MORNING SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MCV IN
PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE IS WELL
SUPPORTED ALOFT AND RESIDES WITHIN THE HEART OF MAIN 1000-500MB
HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE. FOR TODAY...MAIN SUPPORT FOR THIS MCV ALOFT
WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT 18Z...OVER GEORGIAN BAY AT 00Z THIS EVENING. NWP DATA SUPPORTS A
ROBUST MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER. MODELS FORECAST THAT 0-6
KM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/0-1 KM WINDSPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS/0-0.5
KM WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE VALIDITY OF THE EXACT
MAGNITUDES WITH LACK OF SAMPLING IN THE RAOB NETWORK...BUT PRETTY
SAFE TO SAY THAT HIGH END WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH EJECTION OF IA/MO LLJ MAX
TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST THING TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WELL THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...GIVEN THE SHIELD OF OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD PUSHING OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL FORCING. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 07.12Z
KDTX RAOB SUPPORTS VIRTUALLY NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
RELATIVE BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES OF THE INBOUND
PARCELS ARE OFF OF THE STABLE/DRY ANTICYCLONE. NAM IS ADVERTISING
RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN BUFR SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
PRESERVATION OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN HAPPEN GIVEN
MIDLEVEL AIRMASS REPLACEMENT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT EVEN IF MARGINAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AND STORMS CAN POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA....THAN SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MODE MAY FAVOR A SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELL
MODE EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLES. A PLAN VIEW CUT OF A PSEUDO MIXED
LAYER CAPE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT 750 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONFLUENCE STREAMLINES/MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF MCV AND DRIVING
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FLARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IS
19-23Z.
WHAT IS OF BETTER CERTAINTY IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MIDLEVEL JET IMPULSE ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALL RESPONSE WILL BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL IN ALLOWING A BETTER THETA E RIDGE TO ROLL/FOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF M 59 COINCIDENT WITH THE END OF
PEAK HEATING. NAM AND RAP BOTH ADVERTISE THAT RICHER LOW LEVEL THETA
E CONTENT WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT. VARIOUS
HIGH RESOLUTION/DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE LEAD
EDGE OF THIS THETA E GRADIENT/SECONDARY WARM FRONT REGION AS A
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WITH FORECASTING THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS
POOR HANDLING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA. OVERALL....TIMING OUTLINED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 22-
02Z LOOKS VERY GOOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM MULTICELL STRUCTURES FOR THIS SOUTHERN/LATER
ACTIVITY TO THAT OF LINE SEGEMENTS AND POSSIBLE BOW STRUCTURES.
PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS ON TRACK AS WELL AS SECONDARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND A 2
PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 718 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING...AS COLD FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. LIMITED DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN ENDS UP FALLING LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE CARRIED LOW MVFR AND LIGHT FOG IN TAFS.
FOR DTW...A CLEAR START TO THE DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT IS
FOR A LOW MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 AFTER 22Z INTO
MONDAY MORNING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRAS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY MID LEVELS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING DEPTHS REACHING 850 MB YESTERDAY...BUT THE 850 MB TEMP
CAME IN AT BIT COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AT 9 C. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ENERGY TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PW VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN 1.75 INCHES TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. DEVELOPING DEEP AND
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS EVEN
DOWN LOW AT 850 MB...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE ADVERTISED EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME A LOT OF WARM
AIR...AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE ABOVE 14000 KFT...AND 700 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE
MAX FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPES MOSTLY BELOW
1000 J/KG. MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY ADVERTISED SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND MORE LIKELY LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
ATTEMPTS TO FOLD OVER AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. GOOD
0-1 KM LOW LEVEL WIND BULK SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH WARM
FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAIN THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CAPE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO DRYING OUT PROCESS OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED THE
INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
SOME CONCERN THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD STRUGGLE WITH THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INTERACT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BROAD SCALE SUPPORT FOR
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE TROUGH AND THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SETTING UP ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. THE MAIN
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST DURING MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MID LEVELS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE. MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR
10C WILL COMBINE WITH 500 MB COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP 850 MB LI NEAR
ZERO. A NUDGE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET WILL
BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO TOUCH OFF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN GET ADDED TO THE MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. MODEL CAPE PROJECTIONS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AVAILABLE AND AS
500 MB TEMPS SETTLE AROUND -15C...ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR 8-9 JUNE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IN THE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A BROAD/WEAK REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SPOKES
OF ENHANCED TROUGHINESS HAVING LOW PREDICTABILITY. THAT LEAVES THE
THUMB REGION AS THE ONLY TARGET AREA FOR A POP FORECAST MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN CHANCE DUE TO ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING IN FROM
NORTHERN LOWER AND DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION...A LITTLE LESS SO IN THE DETROIT AREA NEAR THE
LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZE.
TUESDAY WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THANKS
TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE EXIT TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND ON THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 80/LOWS AROUND 60.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE IN THE GREAT LAKES DURING
WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER DYNAMICALLY IN THE MODELS THAN THE
ONE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE QUALITY. MEAN RH
FIELDS IN THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THEN APPEAR UNDERDONE WITH AN
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SEEMS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT AS 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 9C AND 500
MB TEMPS NEAR -7C ARE SHOWN SLIDING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.
AFTER ANOTHER BREAK POST FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE
MORE THAN HINTS AT A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE REMNANTS OF "BLANCA" CURRENTLY
OFF BAJA AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING MID
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A MODERATE
INCREASE IN WIND AND WAVES MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
HURON. MORE IMPORTANT FOR MARINERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
ARE LIKELY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS SET TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAS SPREAD THRU ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITHIN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE
ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
OUR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL NOT CLEAR OUR
CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REPRESENTED IN THE GOING
FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM WEST OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. WILL NEED TO RELY ON SOME CLEARING TO PRODUCE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CLEARING/INSTABILITY EVOLVES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
...SHOWERS MOVING IN...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE WORKING ACROSS THE NC PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SWATH OF MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ STRETCHED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BACK
THROUGH IOWA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT. FORCING IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND OF COURSE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND SFC LOW. GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA/MO...WITH LITTLE TO NONE FROM NRN WI AND
AREAS NORTH OF THERE. THUNDER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNEAPOLIS...BUT WAS MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THERE. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT 00Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWS HOW DRY WE CURRENTLY ARE...WITH PWATS AT 0.32". THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING...BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE UPSTREAM IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT ROLLS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY...PUSHING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WAA/DPVA AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION (TO 1.75" PWATS)
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. BEST FORCING IS TIED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM MCV FROM CONVECTION IN SRN MN/IA...WHICH ROLLS RIGHT ACROSS
NRN LOWER. CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND MODEL SFC TD`S TOO
HIGH...LIKELY DENYING THEIR INSISTENCE ON CREATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALL THE HINTS FOR THIS RESIDE WELL SOUTH FROM SRN LOWER
BACK THROUGH NRN IN/IL...WITHIN STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET AND
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.
FOR US...WE HAVE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FIRST...WHICH WILL HOLD
OFF THE START TIME FOR SHOWERS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE
THAT A LATE MORNING START ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN NRN LOWER
IS GOOD...PUSHING THROUGH NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...A RESULT OF POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN EASTERN WI (BEHIND THE INITIAL CURRENT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION). THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY BE SUSTAINED ALONG
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES US TONIGHT. THE KEY IS HOW FAST THE FRONT
GETS HERE...A NEBULOUS PART OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TREND WILL BE
FOR DRYING HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH...WARMING UP PRIOR TO THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS
NE LOWER...AND WARMING UP BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINS WILL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED WHILE RAINING...BUT CAN
SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF NRN
LOWER...AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER.
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S...LOWER 60S FAR SE IN
DOWNSLOPING AND LAST TO COOL LOCALES BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD MAYBE BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THAT (AS USUAL) IS DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER SHOT AT STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING AS WE WELCOME THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AS OVERALL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN FINDS ITSELF BENEATH THE
FAMILIAR REGIME OF PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. IN THIS CASE...IT
STILL APPEARS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PAY THE AREA A VISIT...WITH
THE FIRST AND MOST PRONOUNCED ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON (TIED TO A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY)...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY IS A NOTABLE ONE...WITH PWAT VALUES TAKING A DIVE FROM VERY
HIGH LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES TOWARD SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
"NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - GENERALLY IN THE 0.9 INCH RANGE.
THAT IS NOTED DOWN LOW BY A DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BACK
THROUGH THE 50S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLAVOR FOR MONDAY...AS WE
AWAIT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING AFTER 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF
THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE STILL LOOKS TO SPILL
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP STEEPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL WHILE WEAK
GRADIENT/LIGHTER WIND REGIME LIKELY ALLOWS FOR SOME TURNING OF THE
WINDS ONSHORE LOCALLY. BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW MEETING UP LAKE
HURON ONSHORE COMPONENT LOOKS TO DO ITS USUAL THING OF FORCING
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF BETTER POOLING OF MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 800J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS NOTED INTO INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AS WELL (AS WE
OFTEN SEE IN BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW REGIMES)...WITH INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT LESS BUT PUSHING 500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT
WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK PUSH OF BETTER UPPER FORCING (MAINLY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING)...AND THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DIURNAL
UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS TO
OUR WEST OVER WISCONSIN BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY TRY ITS BEST TO SNEAK OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF IT WILL FALL APART
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH CERTAINLY HAVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING WILL HELP A LITTLE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LIMITED
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH GIVEN LOW FREEZING/WET BULB 0
LEVELS DOWN NEAR 9KFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES PERHAPS NEARING 30
KNOTS FOR A TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORMS PUT OUT
SOME SMALLER HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...
THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND BETTER
LAPSE RATES SWINGING THROUGH...FEEL THE NEED TO EXTEND SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. CLEARING AND REMAINING HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE (HELPED ALONG WHEREVER IT HAPPENS TO RAIN) STRONGLY
ARGUES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION...WITH
SOME OF THAT POTENTIALLY RATHER DENSE WITH A POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES
COMPONENT. AFTER THAT...GETTING A GOOD VIBE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ROLLS OVERHEAD.
THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED
RIBBON OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES UP INTO THE REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIED TO QUITE THE PROGRESSIVE/STRONG
SHORTWAVE RUNNING THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONG GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE UP THIS
WAY...BUT BASED ON THE SETUP HONESTLY THINK THIS MAY BE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO FOLD OVER FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD DOWN INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RACING
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WE CAN
SNEAK THIS FAR NORTH...BUT STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT DO AT
LEAST GIVE ONE PAUSE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
TO SURVIVE THE JOURNEY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURPRISE...SURPRISE. AS EXPECTED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGLY TRENDED AGAINST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...OWING TO BETTER AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THUS FORCING OUR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTHEAST AREAS FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TREND IS FOR A RATHER NICE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...COMPLETE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS
GIVEN AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR (AKA WARM DAYS...COOLISH NIGHTS). RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...THOUGH STILL LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. CERTAINLY A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID/MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLE IFR...
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS IS EXPECTED...BEFORE A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CROSS THE AIRPORTS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL START IN NW LOWER 13-16Z...EXITING NE LOWER
21-00Z. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...BUT MOISTENING. AFTER THE RAIN
STARTS...IT`LL TAKE SOME TIME TO DROP CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND NW WHILE
WEAKENING.
THIS EVENING IS RATHER NEBULOUS. COULD SEE PLN/APN...MAYBE TVC
STUCK IN SOME POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS...WHILE MBL IS MOST
LIKELY TO SCOUR OUT THE IFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF PLN/APN. CONFIDENCE IS THIS
IS LOW...THE ACTUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. PLN COULD
BE STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRENDS SUPPORT
EVENTUALLY SCOURING OUT MVFR/IFR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THAT SCENARIO.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
WATER SFC...BUT CAN SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE NW LOWER SHORELINE...AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT...AND WINDS START TO SUBSIDE AS
THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A
WEAKISH GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM RAIN AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS DROPPED CIGS TO LOW MVFR OR IFR EARLY TODAY ALTHOUGH A
DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW HAS TEMPORARILY BROUGHT CIGS UP AT IWD CMX. AS
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND W...EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN. WITH A
STRONG SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. THE SHRA WILL DIMINISH W-E THIS MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND
SAW LATE TODAY...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE COLD LAKE SUPERIOR
WATERS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN AN IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON THAT MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS A STRENGTHENING SW WIND ADVECTS MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...EXPECT SHRA TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE W-E OVER UPR MI. WHILE THERE MAY BE A TS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AT IWD...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTER AIR WL ALSO CAUSE LOWER MVFR AND THEN IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP W-E...REACHING SAW BY SUNRISE. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AS WELL. THE SHRA WL DIMINISH W-E LATER THIS MRNG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN
LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW LATER IN THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A LOWER MVFR CIG AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS A STRENGTHENING SW WIND ADVECTS MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...EXPECT SHRA TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE W-E OVER UPR MI. WHILE THERE MAY BE A TS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AT IWD...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTER AIR WL ALSO CAUSE LOWER MVFR AND THEN IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP W-E...REACHING SAW BY SUNRISE. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AS WELL. THE SHRA WL DIMINISH W-E LATER THIS MRNG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN
LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW LATER IN THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A LOWER MVFR CIG AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN
TRACK SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. EXPECT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO FOLLOW INTO THE W GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING POPS INTO MORNING PERIOD. MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHES OF WHAT APPEAR TO BE ACCAS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS...AND HENCE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHRA IN THE MORNING...AND EXPAND
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY EAST. ANALYSIS OF 12Z RAOBS DOES NOT REVEAL AN
ATMOSPHERE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND PW VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.5 IN. HENCE KEEPING FORECAST POPS
AT 20 OR LESS LOOKS REASONABLE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
SUFFERING FROM A SIGNIFICANT WARM/DRY BIAS SHOWING TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 90S OVER PARTS OF THE AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE 50S. CURRENT FORECAST OF MAXES IN LOWER 90S SEEM REASONABLE...
WITH BETTER MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MS WHERE
KBMX RAOB SHOWS DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEG OR
SO IN THOSE EASTERN AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. AREA AROUND KMEI
HAS ALSO SEEN MUCH LESS RAINFALL LAST MONTH THAN MOST AREAS WHICH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MID CLOUDINESS IMPACTING KGLH AND THE JACKSON
AREA SITES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR. EXPECT SOME
LOWER BASED CUMULUS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KHBG SO WILL
EVALUATE THAT FURTHER FOR 18Z TAFS. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT)...THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
QUIET AS MEAN DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
REDUCING PRECIP POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW ISO SHOWERS ON
SAT...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR. LOOK FOR THIS ISO
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BE MORE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MS
RIVER. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...BUT EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT IS IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH A
FEW PLACES BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. OVERALL...89-92 IS
THE PRIMARY RANGE AND THIS IS 1-2 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREV
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG PART OF THE FORECAST GOING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR HIGHS MONDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS/TSRA IN THE FAR N. BY LATE
IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY MON NGT...WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN
SOME AS A DECENT S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND HELPS LOWER
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV BUT
WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL...INCREASED ASCENT AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY
STARTING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR N AND LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT MOVES MORE INTO THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME...THIS SETUP SEEMS TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH ELEMENTS MISSING AT THIS TIME TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL WE GET CLOSER. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. /CME/
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A MID/
UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN
UPPER JET MAX EXTENDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION. ALONG WITH A DISSIPATING
SURFACE FRONT AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION, THIS
WOULD PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED HIGHER POPS INTO TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND THE STRONGER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, BUT WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGHING AND GENERALLY LOWER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS, PROVIDING CONTINUED ABOVE-CLIMO POPS,
THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST, BUT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND (OR
PERHAPS EVEN INCREASE ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS PWAT PROGS). THUS
CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GREATER THAN TYPICAL DAYTIME COVERAGE
EXPECTED. /DL/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONDITION THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SITES BRIEFING REACHING MVFR VIS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 10-13Z. /CME/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
An approaching cold front will begin to impact the regions terminals
during the late evening and overnight tonight. Prior to and after
the frontal passage, the regions weather will be rather night with
VFR ceilings and visibilities. The cold front will bring the
chance for thunderstorms with quickly changing conditions near
storms. Will handle these changes as needed. A strong low level
flow into the region will bring the potential for LLWS for a
portion of the hours from roughly midnight through sunrise.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
Pilots can expect favorable flight conditions today with VFR
conditions prevailing at area terminals.
A cold front will approach from the north late tonight bringing an
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms primarily after
06z tonight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
...Warmest Day So Far This Season On The Way Today...Strong to
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Tonight...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Convection ended early in the evening with a clearing sky by late
this evening. Wind has stayed up during the evening and should
help to prevent some of the fog we had last night. BBG has dropped
to calm wind which is typical there and have continued to mention
MVFR fog overnight there. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
re-enter the forecast on Sunday night, but have not included in
this forecast package with the main convection expected to remain
northwest of the TAF sites until after 06z. So for now, have
generally gone with VFR through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON CANADIAN RADAR
TRAVELING SOUTH THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 06Z. NAM AND GFS ARE
DRY WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE HRRR PICKED UP ISOLATED SHOWERS. SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IT DOES CREATE A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL BEGIN COOLING TEMPERATURES A
BIT. MAIN CHANGES WERE MINOR TO UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE RUNS INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RESIDES IN
THE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE FRONT
RANGE OF ALBERTA.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE UP NORTH WILL
LATCH ONTO A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER AND PUSH IT FORWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPIKE
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE
FRONTS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODELS
REMAIN DRY A FEW INCLUDING THE HRRR AND CMC REGIONAL GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS ON THIS TROUGH/FRONT OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTY
AND MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE ABOVE 500 MB TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THEY ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY THICK YET WEAK
LAYER OF INVERSION FROM 700 TO 500 MB THAT MUST FIRST BE
OVERPOWERED TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. THE TROUGHS PASSAGE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH OF A PERTURBANCE TO DO THIS. THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP FROM NOTHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WILL
STABILIZE OUT THE SURFACE LAYER. BUT THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY SHRUG OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD BE DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. MEANWHILE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE BLUNTED AND ZONAL FLOW WILL
OPEN UP A LANE THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR NEW SHORTWAVES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH WILL SET
UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL OVERRUN IT ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO EXPAND AND MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ACT TO MOISTEN A VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER.
SEVERE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE LOW...MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS
RAIN SHOWERS SHUTTING OFF AROUND MID DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND
A CLEAR AIR DRY SLOT FORMING DUE TO A INCOMING JET. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO WARM...AT WHICH
POINT BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FORM SEVERE
CELLS. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO ENTIRELY HANGS ON A JET ENTERING AND
A CLEAR AIR OPENING BEING IN THE CORRECT TIME AND PLACE. MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT JETS ARE OFF IN TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PLACEMENT THIS
FAR OUT IN THE MODELS...HENCE LOW CONFIDENCE.
GAH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE AGAIN TODAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT QUITE CAN/T BE WORKED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z EC WANTS TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT
HANGING AROUND. EC SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS SO
LOWERED POPS A BIT.
OTHERWISE...COULD GET INTERESTING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SENDS A DISTURBANCE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA OVER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A TROF DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY...PHASING WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE
LEE TROF IN CENTRAL MONTANA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO HAVE SOME POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EXTENT OF
THE STORMS.
THIS UPPER WAVE WINDS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOLER AIRMASS OVER MONTANA FOR
SUNDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND TO THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
WX: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE THREAT IS SO SMALL THAT THEY WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
WIND: BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
STRONG PAC NW RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. THERE STILL EXISTS
SOME PV IN THE STRONGER NW FLOW OVER FAR EASTERN MT. THIS COUPLED
WITH SOME VERY MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR AREAS OF VIRGA ACROSS MAINLY OUR SE
PARTS THIS AFTN...AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING. OTHERWISE CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK TSTM OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS EITHER.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET WX DAY.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FLOW ALOFT HAS
TURNED FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT AND IS LESS LIKELY
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS
HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED POPCORN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WRF DOES SHOW SOME VERY WEAK
ENERGY ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THE RAPID REFRESH MAY ALSO BE PICKING UP ON SOMEWHAT
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR SO FAR HAS MAINLY
AFFECTED OUR WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT WANT TO ADVERTISE
THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DECENT SHOWERS TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND SUCH WEAK TRIGGERS AVAILABLE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE THE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.
BY TONIGHT WE CERTAINLY HAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMP PROGGS REACH 26C/28C TRANSLATING TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. EASILY OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR...BUT NOT
REALLY CLOSE TO ANY DAILY RECORDS. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO NORTH...BUT
IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A DRY FRONT. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MAIN FOCUS IS AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING
TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND AID
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL TOP THE
RIDGE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...LOOKS LIKE SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN ENERGY
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ALSO LOOKS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. PRECIPITATABLE
WATERS ALSO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME EFFICIENT RAINERS
AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY LATER ON THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. FRIEDERS/SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 058/090 061/084 059/079 056/075 054/082 055/082
0/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 62/T 21/B 11/B
LVM 082 052/090 055/085 057/078 052/076 050/082 050/080
0/B 00/U 02/T 46/T 62/T 21/B 22/T
HDN 083 054/091 057/086 059/083 056/076 054/084 055/084
1/B 00/U 00/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
MLS 083 059/091 061/083 059/078 057/074 054/080 055/082
0/B 00/U 10/U 45/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
4BQ 080 055/088 059/084 059/079 056/071 052/079 054/081
1/B 00/B 00/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
BHK 081 054/089 057/083 054/074 052/070 048/077 050/080
1/B 00/B 10/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
SHR 078 049/085 053/082 054/079 053/070 049/077 049/079
1/B 00/B 01/U 35/T 64/T 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
103 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE KOFK SITE
WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SATELLITE TREND IS FOR CONTINUED WARMING
CLOUD TOPS SO ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. STILL INCLUDED VCSH IN FIRST PERIOD OF KOFK TAF. ONE MINUTE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO HELPFUL IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUD DECK THAT
WAS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING...MORPH INTO BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUE FIELD. KTQE LOWERED TO
MVFR CIG BUT FEEL KOMA WILL STAY SCT FOR NOW. MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE KOMA SITE. OTHERWISE ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE...OR
REMAIN...VFR AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN CIGS REMAINING
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT THE
KLBF TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOUD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
TWO COMPLEXES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR
THE FCST AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING COMPLEX ACROSS THE
SRN PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE FCST AREA 19Z-21Z. A
SECOND AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP PER HRRR...ACROSS SWRN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
526 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE 06Z KLBF TAF FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL CLIMB TO 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT
AGL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
TSRA ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU
IA/NEB. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CLEARED KOFK AND EXPECT A FEW CELLS
AT KOMA THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS FOR KLNK...LATEST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AREA OF TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB WILL
REACH KLNK AROUND 08Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE 06Z KLBF TAF FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL CLIMB TO 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT
AGL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO THE STATE FROM DISINTEGRATING HURRICANE
BLANCA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST MONDAY...BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD
AGAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR RATHER ACTIVE...BUT NO DAY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE TOTALLY DRY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE RADAR RANCH. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FAR
WEST AND DEWPOINTS OUT THERE STARTING TO CRATER. THE EAST IS IN LINE
TO SEE MORE STORM ACTION THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTER
TERM MODELS...WITH THE RUC HOLDING ONTO MORE PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDER
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND SUGGESTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD AGAIN
BY TUESDAY...IN THE MEANTIME THERE MAY BE SOME DRY-ISH STORMS OUT TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER. THE MAIN PORTION OF WHAT/S LEFT OF BLANCA MAY GO UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF. MAIN STORY IS INCREASED POPS
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THAT
ANOTHER TROF KEEPS MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION...SO NO DAY IS DRY FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH...WETTING RAIN HAS BEEN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT IT HAS BEEN SPOTTIER ACROSS THE WEST. MOST STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET...THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NE PLAINS...AND MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. AS THE
FRONT OOZES SOUTH AND WEST...IT SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OR
SO OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
STATE. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...AND
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONT BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. ISO-SCT STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OR POINTS
JUST WEST...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING MUCH SLOWER
THAN TODAY...SO SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LATER
MONDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...STEERING THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WESTWARD INTO AZ/CA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WEST BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE
STORMS.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
BLANCA WILL GO LATE TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
CALI COAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM AZ/CA INTO UTAH...WITH NM ON THE EDGE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO NM. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE TUE INTO WED.
LATEST MODELS SHOW THURS TO BE MUCH DRIER AS A DRY SLOT ENVELOPES
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH/LOW SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE NM/CO BORDER LATE THURS AND FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PLAINS. THUS...MORE STORMS
POSSIBLE.
FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS NOON HOUR...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO INSERT MENTION AT KABQ/KAEG. A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...THOUGH THEREAFTER...A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND IT BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z MONDAY ACROSS NE AND EC NM.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 86 52 87 / 10 10 10 20
DULCE........................... 40 80 47 83 / 10 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 46 80 49 79 / 10 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 44 84 47 81 / 5 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 44 83 46 79 / 10 20 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 44 85 49 81 / 10 20 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 47 86 52 79 / 10 20 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 50 88 53 84 / 10 30 40 30
CHAMA........................... 41 75 43 76 / 10 20 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 80 55 79 / 40 40 40 40
PECOS........................... 53 77 53 78 / 30 50 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 75 46 77 / 20 50 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 42 67 42 68 / 30 50 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 71 44 72 / 30 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 45 78 46 78 / 20 30 20 30
MORA............................ 48 76 49 76 / 30 50 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 49 86 51 83 / 10 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 53 82 53 79 / 20 40 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 85 55 82 / 20 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 85 61 83 / 20 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 87 64 85 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 88 58 86 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 88 58 86 / 10 20 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 89 60 87 / 10 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 88 63 85 / 10 20 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 62 90 62 88 / 30 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 81 57 81 / 30 30 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 55 84 60 83 / 30 30 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 84 51 84 / 30 30 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 79 55 81 / 30 30 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 82 57 82 / 30 30 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 59 84 / 30 30 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 78 56 79 / 30 40 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 53 74 53 77 / 60 50 40 40
RATON........................... 51 80 51 81 / 40 40 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 50 77 50 82 / 40 30 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 76 50 77 / 30 30 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 59 82 59 86 / 50 40 40 30
ROY............................. 54 80 56 84 / 50 40 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 62 84 62 86 / 50 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 86 63 87 / 50 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 89 64 91 / 50 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 62 86 61 89 / 50 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 63 88 63 90 / 50 20 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 90 64 90 / 50 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 64 92 65 92 / 40 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 59 84 60 86 / 30 20 20 20
ELK............................. 59 80 58 81 / 30 50 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER
MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLIER
THIS EVENING...RADAR INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND FURTHER IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THREAT OF THUNDER LOW WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORM. GOING
FORECAST HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. ONLY CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. TEMPS REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...BY TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SWINGING INTO THE REGION, AND PROVIDE IMPETUS TO PUSH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND STEADILY EAST. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER, AND WITH ADDED ENERGY FROM FRONT-END 100KT JET AT
250 MB WE`RE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST CONCENTRATED FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT ONCE AGAIN IF YOU BELIEVE THE
BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY STORMS. HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAINLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
EVENING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
SREF/MOS BLENDED QPF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD LEAD TO SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO A FEW STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.
WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE TAFS, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY BASED ON HRRR AND BTV-4 WRF OUTPUT. I`VE SHOWN
5-6 SM -SHRA THROUGH 11-13Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK UNTIL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER RE-DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT I`VE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE
EVENING AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD MODDERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY
TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING
THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER
MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT MONDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS DECREASE
WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARY. MORE SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTH
ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY BASICALLY NIL...THUNDER HAS BEEN
ABSENT TO THIS POINT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST
UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...BUT FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED THUNDER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING AT A WET 24 HOUR PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTH AND EAST ALONG A SEMI-STATIONARY AND DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AN EVOLVING LINE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NY STATE. WHILE
SHEAR/HELICITY REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE, BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
IS LITERALLY NON- EXISTENT ACROSS OUR AREA, CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/FAR SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT AND POINTS
SOUTH. SO WHILE I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY AND OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT
COUNTIES, BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT IN IN THESE AREAS. REGARDLESS, HIGH
(70-100%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RIDE NORTHEAST IN THE
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 12-HOUR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS USING A BLEND OF MESOSCALE/GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT A SOLID
BAND OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO MOST OF
VERMONT, WITH SLIGHT LOWER AMOUNTS (APPROX ONE QUARTER INCH) IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING, LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...BY TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SWINGING INTO THE REGION, AND PROVIDE IMPETUS TO PUSH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND STEADILY EAST. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER, AND WITH ADDED ENERGY FROM FRONT-END 100KT JET AT
250 MB WE`RE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST CONCENTRATED FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT ONCE AGAIN IF YOU BELIEVE THE
BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY STORMS. HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAINLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
EVENING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
SREF/MOS BLENDED QPF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD LEAD TO SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO A FEW STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.
WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE TAFS, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY BASED ON HRRR AND BTV-4 WRF OUTPUT. I`VE SHOWN
5-6 SM -SHRA THROUGH 11-13Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK UNTIL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER RE-DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT I`VE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE
EVENING AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD MODDERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY
TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING
THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECTS THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE EARLY THEN
SUBSIDING WITH CHOPPY WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5
FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN
EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AS THE REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER MILD SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A WET 24 HOUR PERIOD
AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTH AND EAST ALONG A
SEMI-STATIONARY AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AN
EVOLVING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NY
STATE. WHILE SHEAR/HELICITY REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE, BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY IS LITERALLY NON- EXISTENT ACROSS OUR AREA,
CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/FAR SOUTHWESTERN
VERMONT AND POINTS SOUTH. SO WHILE I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY AND OUR
SOUTHERN VERMONT COUNTIES, BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY SHOULD LARGELY
INHIBIT A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT IN IN THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS, HIGH (70-100%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RIDE
NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 12-HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS USING A BLEND OF MESOSCALE/GLOBAL MODELS
SUPPORT A SOLID BAND OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EAST
INTO MOST OF VERMONT, WITH SLIGHT LOWER AMOUNTS (APPROX ONE
QUARTER INCH) IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...BY TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SWINGING INTO THE REGION, AND PROVIDE IMPETUS TO PUSH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND STEADILY EAST. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER, AND WITH ADDED ENERGY FROM FRONT-END 100KT JET AT
250 MB WE`RE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST CONCENTRATED FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT ONCE AGAIN IF YOU BELIEVE THE
BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY STORMS. HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAINLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
EVENING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
SREF/MOS BLENDED QPF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD LEAD TO SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO A FEW STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.
WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE TAFS, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY BASED ON HRRR AND BTV-4 WRF OUTPUT. I`VE SHOWN
5-6 SM -SHRA THROUGH 11-13Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK UNTIL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER RE-DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT I`VE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE
EVENING AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD MODDERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY
TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING
THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECTS THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE EARLY THEN
SUBSIDING WITH CHOPPY WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5
FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN
EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL
OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES AND REALIGNMENTS OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THE BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TRANSITION ZONE FIZZLING OUT IN TERMS OF
BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOSS OF
HEATING RESULTING IN DWINDLING CAPE AND INCREASING CINH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO DROPPED AS WELL EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. WE
SHOULD MAINTAIN VERY MARGINAL VALUES OF SKINNY CAPE (MAINLY UNDER 50
J/KG) THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALONG WITH PASSAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL PW
VALUES AND WEAK DPVA IN THE BASE OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGH...
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. THE NSSL WRF...
3 KM NAMRR... AND LATEST HRRR SHOW THIS INITIAL CONVECTION BREAKING
UP BUT BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION (NOW OVER SE
TN) LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THESE MODELS... WHICH ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB WITH EXISTING PATTERN... HAVE TAKEN THE INITIALLY HIGH POPS IN
THE TRIAD BACK DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE... THEN EXPAND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA... FOCUSING
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SW CWA. MILD DEWPOINTS SHOULD WARM A BIT
FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE BY DAWN... TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM MONDAY... STRONG HEATING OF THE
MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE THIS CONVECTION TEMPORARILY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NE TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUSTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO OUR NW THROUGH
SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT AFTER 03Z. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SOLID
CHANCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
FORECAST BULK SHEAR NEAR 30KTS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST
LIKELIHOOD OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IS REMOTE AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM MONDAY...
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING...AND INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILL COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH. DID NOTE THAT LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A
GSB-MEB LINE. WITH SHEAR AXIS LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS DURING MAX HEATING AND PRECIP WATER 1.5-1.7 INCHES...STILL
EXPECT BEST CONCENTRATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THIS
REGION. FOR NOW WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE SE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NW. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH BULK OF
CONVECTION DIMINISHING PRIOR TO 10 PM. HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
LOWS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM A LIFTING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME.
LOOKING AT DAILY DETAILS...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST MARGINALLY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST A
RETARDED SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE HAVE EXPANDED
POPS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A FAIRLY PROMINENT
LAYER OF CUMULUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO
91.
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH...DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANEMIC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST BETS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 94 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 93 AT KRDU THE WARMEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2. HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 594DM OVER AL/MS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND THREATEN OUR REGION WITH
A BACKDOOR LIKE APPROACH. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
FRONT WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM MONDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD (KINT AND KGSO) THIS EVENING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...MOVING INTO THE
TRIANGLE (KRDU) AROUND 03-06Z. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERS
MAY STAY OUT OF THE KFAY VICINITY...BUT POSSIBLY PUSH AS FAR EAST AS
KRWI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST...AND FOR
HOW LONG AND HOW FAR EAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
AVERAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AS A LAYER OF STRATUS DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP AROUND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXISTS. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED. IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD: AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LEADING TO JUST
ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EARLY MORNING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY PROBABLE EACH
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 15Z-17Z EACH DAY. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE PROBABLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...RAH/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO AGAIN SLOW THE INTRODUCTION AND
PROGRESSION OF POPS TONIGHT. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR
AND RAP GENERALLY CONCUR WITH THE NAM...BUT STILL HAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE WEST. OUTSIDE OF THE ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE SLOWED
THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
NEAR TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
03Z OR AFTER. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED
STRETCHING THROUGH WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSHES INTO
THE AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PUSHING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAINLY 80S BEHIND IT. LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SETTLING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COMPLICATED FLOW ALOFT
HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM.
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT
ON NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. HOWEVER...AS LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PHASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS BECOME LESS HARMONIOUS. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY. AS OF NOW...SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AERODROMES
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES WERE TOO SMALL TO PUT INTO THE
TAF. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY. OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THINKING
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED FOG MENTION TO PATCHY FOR THIS
UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LOW VSBYS ONLY IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. JAMESTOWN MAY BE THE ONLY AREA WHERE FOG HAS A
BETTER POTENTIAL. DESPITE HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WEST...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NOW...BUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S IN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...MUST ADMIT THAT
FORECASTING FOG IS NOT EASY...AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE SHOULD TRENDS
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
THROUGH 08 UTC AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY FADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FOG POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ORGANIZATION WITH 00 UTC RAP ANALYZED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND UPSTREAM. TWO GROUPS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN OUR AREA WITH
THE FIRST NEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG)
AND MODEST SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST GROUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING SUNDAY EVENING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED WAVE THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW/AT TIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE
WILL SEE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH PRECISE
TIMING/LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPECIFIC IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT KJMS FOR 3SM BR FROM 09Z-13Z. IFR
VSBYS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND GETTING 1/4SM
VSBYS ALREADY AT GRAFTON/RDR AND HCO AND EXPECT AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN VALLEY TO SEE DENSE FOG. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE THROUGH 12Z. THE RAP INDICATES PORTIONS OF
NW MN MAY ALSO HAVE DENSE FOG TONIGHT...SO AN EXPANSION OF THE FOG
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG
ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY CURRENT RAIN EVENT AND LATER LOW END
PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE BLEND.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHIFTING INTO NW MN AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND CAPE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER ANY SEVERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLD IF ANY
GET THAT STRONG. OTHERWISE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE MOST PCPN OUT OF THE
FA NEAR 06Z AND TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON THE MILD SIDE.
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CROSSES FA TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE AND DIMINISHED POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. FA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS AS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. GFS BEGINS TO DEVELOP MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN US
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHEREAS THE 12Z EC MAINTAINS
NW FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING HEAVIER RAINS IN SD. THE GFS
BRINGS THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE TIMING AND OF COURSE PLACEMENT IN
QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE...IN THE
70S...DEPENDENT HIGHLY ON CLOUD COVER AND MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE THE BEST FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE REGION
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERMIT
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL STRETCH WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NW OF CWA THAT WILL TRACK INTO AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WHEN THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CWA.
USED A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST WITH THE 22Z RAP AND 18Z NAM12 FOR A
STARTING POINT AND MADE HAND ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE. MODELS THAT
SEE THIS FEATURE AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION
AFTER 6Z IN CWA AND I AM BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO ATTM. THIS IS
IN POLAR OPPOSITION TO EARLIER STATEMENTS OF LITTLE THUNDER THIS
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SKIES TAKE A LITTLE
BIT LONGER TO CLEAR OUT GIVEN THE THERMAL AXIS OF COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE PUSHING THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PLEASANT DAY APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES. ONE
LAST COOL NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE FOUND TUES
NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW PERMITS INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. WED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS KEEPING ABOVE 65 DEG WILL OCCUR AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT AND DRAPES W-E ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE SOME MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA STARTING IN THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD WITH A CDFNT HUNG UP ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO INDIANA. CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENUF FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. A H5 S/W SWINGING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUT A RIPPLE ON THE FRONT. THIS CAUSES
THE FRONT OT LIFT NORTH OF THE FA ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE FA.
THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SO WENT
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL...KEEPING THE
PATTERN RELATIVITY UNCHANGED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID DAYS...WITH THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE FA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES. THINGS
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 80. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID 80S MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. FOR INITIAL ISSUANCE ONLY
INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA AT KDAY. OTHER SITES CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDING TOGETHER WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AND THUS OPTED
FOR VCSH. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR. APPEARS
THAT SOME MIST/FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CINCINNATI AREA AND ALSO
KILN. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE REGION
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERMIT
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL STRETCH WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NW OF CWA THAT WILL TRACK INTO AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WHEN THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CWA.
USED A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST WITH THE 22Z RAP AND 18Z NAM12 FOR A
STARTING POINT AND MADE HAND ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE. MODELS THAT
SEE THIS FEATURE AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION
AFTER 6Z IN CWA AND I AM BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO ATTM. THIS IS
IN POLAR OPPOSITION TO EARLIER STATEMENTS OF LITTLE THUNDER THIS
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SKIES TAKE A LITTLE
BIT LONGER TO CLEAR OUT GIVEN THE THERMAL AXIS OF COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE PUSHING THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PLEASANT DAY APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES. ONE
LAST COOL NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE FOUND TUES
NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW PERMITS INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. WED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS KEEPING ABOVE 65 DEG WILL OCCUR AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT AND DRAPES W-E ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE SOME MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA STARTING IN THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD WITH A CDFNT HUNG UP ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO INDIANA. CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENUF FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. A H5 S/W SWINGING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUT A RIPPLE ON THE FRONT. THIS CAUSES
THE FRONT OT LIFT NORTH OF THE FA ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE FA.
THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SO WENT
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL...KEEPING THE
PATTERN RELATIVITY UNCHANGED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID DAYS...WITH THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE FA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES. THINGS
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 80. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID 80S MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDAY. LIMITED ANY THUNDER
MENTION TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE
UPPER THROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.
ANY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT. HAVE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT KILN AND KLUK.
LIMITED FOG TO MVFR AT KILN AND DROPPED KLUK TO IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS IL
HAS BEGUN TO TURN SE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS CONTOURS WHICH WILL TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
QUESTION IS HOW SOON MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. NEW GUIDANCE
COMING IN IS SHOWING THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE EVENING BEFORE MOST OF
THE AREA HAS A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
PREVIOUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. DECIDED TO TAKE THIS OUT AS BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST SPIC DISCUSSION TALKS ABOUT POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STILL NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THIS THING WILL TRACK AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS STARTING TO
TAKE A DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN
BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITY.
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ALL AREAS EXCEPT
EXTREME EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S WEST TO UPPER 70S
IN THE EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AT BAY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS IT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER BRINGS THE ENHANCED RISK AS FAR EAST AS THE INDIANA OHIO
BORDER AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED BE VERY
MOISTURE STARVED BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS. FURTHER WEST...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
BEGINNING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...EXPECTING LOWS TO BE A
BIT COOLER THERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD AT
ALL AND EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
HIGHS MONDAY AND 60S FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATIONS OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE GRIDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN INCREASES BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITHOUT A TRIGGER UNDER THE INCREASING 5H
HEIGHTS IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDER CHANCES. THE LAKE BREEZE COULD PLAY A ROLL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO
WARM CONDITIONS. BELIEVE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING WHILE SSW WINDS GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TRIGGERING A BAND OF TSRA. THE HRRR KEEP JUMPING AROUND WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO THE POINT OF
BEING USELESS. WILL GO WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT GENERALLY STARTING ABOUT 23Z AND CONTINUING INTO
MON MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY JUST THE MFD/CAK/YNG AREA BY
18Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES INTO MON EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SCT NON VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY WITH WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED WAVES DUE TO
THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER
THE SWIMMING RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY ON MONDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
622 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL BE QUIET AS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS RESULT
OF DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO EASE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DISSIPATE. THERE IS A
SUBTLE WAVE BACK ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. RAP ACTUALLY RUNS WITH THIS TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...WHERE A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK ON
THE LARGER SCALE...SO WENT ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEPT ANY
ISOLATED PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT...SIMPLY
MARKING AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
TUESDAY EASILY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 90S WILL BE
COMMON WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
925 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 90S WITH EVEN MODEST
MIXING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE DAY.
HOWEVER... CONVERGENCE INDICATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
MINIMAL...MAIN DYNAMICS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEP
MIXING WILL ELIMINATE A GOOD DEAL OF CAPE. ENOUGH SHALLOW FRONTAL
FORCING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH POOLING OF MOISTURE TO WRING UP A 500-
1000 J/KG CAPE. HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE FAIRLY LINEAR AND VECTORS
ORIENTED TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
TIME...ONLY VERY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FIND ANY CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AND THAT WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA CLOSEST
TO THE FRONTAL FORCING. INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GENERATE STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT. A MARGINAL...BUT VERY
CONDITIONAL...RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM APPROPRIATE...
MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WITH COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST QUICKLY
TUESDAY EVENING AND AIR WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER SUNSET. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW COVERAGE OF WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING...MAINLY EARLY EVENING...
FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT AND
MODEST CLOUD COVER WILL PASS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD
LEAVE SKIES EVERYWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR LATE NIGHT. VERY MODEST
COOLING WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 60 NORTH WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AFTER THE HOT DAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EAST AND DRY UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE 80 TO 86
RANGE...OF COURSE SOME NOTCHES BELOW TUESDAYS HEAT.
THERE IS ENOUGH THERMAL SUPPORT AND ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
LIKELY COPIOUS INCOMING MOISTURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. WILL NOT MENTION THE HEAVY THREAT IN THE
GRIDS THIS FAR AHEAD IN DEFERENCE TO DOUBTS IN THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE. CERTAINLY THE PATTERNS OF SOME OF THE COPIOUS MODEL
RAINFALL OUTPUT CAN CHANGE EVEN IF THEY HAVE THE GENERAL THREAT
NAILED. BUT WE CAN CERTAINLY EMPHASIZE THE WIDESPREAD NATURE AND
POSSIBLY THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN SOME OF OUR PRODUCTS.
AGAIN...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS FROM THE CURRENT DYING
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM MAY FIGURE INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES
OF COURSE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BETWEEN COOLING AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE BUT NOT
COMPLETE END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A DAY OR SO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...AGAIN
UPPING THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONGLY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER. A COOL REGIME WILL
WARM JUST A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. SOME
RIDGING BY MONDAY BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A DRY DAY
MONDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION IN MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE WEEKEND HAVING
GAINED A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER LOOKING DRY A COUPLE DAYS
AGO...AND MONDAY COULD DO THE SAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION SLIDING INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF KHON TO KFSD
LINE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...BUT EXPECT NO NO MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1024 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...AND MARK THE START OF
A WARMING TREND WITH HOT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT MONDAY...
BANDS OF SHALLOW BUT STILL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE THIS EVENING ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW. EXPECT WITH ADDED SHRA UPSTREAM TO SEE THE MOST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO BUMPED POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. HOWEVER GIVEN
SLOW LOSS OF INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WITH TRAINING OF BANDS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. OTRW THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY TO REACH THE FAR WEST AND EASTERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE ADDED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH PER THE LATEST HRRR. THEREFORE CUT
POPS TO LOW CHANCE OR JUST ISOLATED LATE WHICH MAY BE TOO SLOW
ONCE WE GET IN BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND FRONT LATER TONIGHT. BUMPED
DOWN LOWS IN SPOTS GIVEN CURRENT RAIN COOLED VALUES WITH OVERALL
TEMPS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
APPEARS WESTERLY FLOW TO LIMIT COVERAGE ON TUESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WHEN MIXING SUBSIDES AND POSSIBLY
WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNDER THE COOL POOL WHERE UPSLOPE AIDED. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST PER EXODUS OF DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO RUNNING WITH OVERALL 20ISH POPS PIEDMONT
FOR NOW. HIGHS MOSTLY 80S WITH SOME 70S FAR WEST ALTHOUGH TURNING
A BIT DRIER LATER IN THE DAY AS DRY ADVECTION SWINGS IN AND MIXES
DOWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW SEVERE WATCH 277 EXPIRE GIVEN FOCUS
OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOX AND IDEA THAT ANY
ADDED STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER BUMPED UP POPS TO A PERIOD OF LIKELYS/CATEGORICAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ESPCLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE CURRENT
OUTFLOW BAND OF STORMS HEADING QUICKLY EAST...AND OUT IN THE
PIEDMONT FOR RESIDUAL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHSIDE VA BACK INTO NW
NC ALONG THE TAIL OF THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST CAPE PERSISTS BUT EXPECT THE WESTERN LINE TO ENCOUNTER A
BIT MORE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT MAKING STORMS MORE ELEVATED
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE WITH BURSTS OF
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN TRAINING NATURE IN SPOTS OVER
THE SE. OTRW ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTS WITH ANOTHER UPDATE EXPECTED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHEN SHOULD SEE COVERAGE DECREASE MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT THEN 500 MB
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS THIS
TIME FRAME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND +20 BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROF THAT FORECAST IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS WHEN ENCOUNTERING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. WPC
WAS FAVORING A STALLING THEN DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE IS NO ORGANIZED FOCUS OR LIFT THIS TIME FRAME TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY
FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AND
WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A SEVERE OR STRONGER STORM THREAT AFTER
SUNSET. THUS WILL INIT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IN WHERE TO
PUT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO IN LOWER IFR CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
APPEARS BEST SHOT AT DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE AT KDAN AND KLYH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND PERHAPS KBCB-KROA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO BRING ANOTHER BROKEN
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY TO
COVERAGE GIVEN LIKELY LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN SPOTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THIS POINT.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND FOLLOWS THE SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR LOWER CIGS. WENT A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THE GFS BUT STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WRN TERMINALS
KBLF/KLWB...WITH MOST TAF SITES INCREASE TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-WNW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME HINT OF POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF A
KLYH/KDAN LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT BLF/LWB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS BUT NOT INCLUDING AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL BE HEATING UP WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND MORNING
AT BCB/LWB...AND POSSIBLY LYH/DAN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER MIDWEEK...AND MARK THE
START OF A WARMING TREND WITH HOT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW SEVERE WATCH 277 EXPIRE GIVEN FOCUS
OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOX AND IDEA THAT ANY
ADDED STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER BUMPED UP POPS TO A PERIOD OF LIKELYS/CATEGORICAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ESPCLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE CURRENT
OUTFLOW BAND OF STORMS HEADING QUICKLY EAST...AND OUT IN THE
PIEDMONT FOR RESIDUAL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHSIDE VA BACK INTO NW
NC ALONG THE TAIL OF THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST CAPE PERSISTS BUT EXPECT THE WESTERN LINE TO ENCOUNTER A
BIT MORE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT MAKING STORMS MORE ELEVATED
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE WITH BURSTS OF
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN TRAINING NATURE IN SPOTS OVER
THE SE. OTRW ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTS WITH ANOTHER UPDATE EXPECTED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHEN SHOULD SEE COVERAGE DECREASE MORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. WE ALREADY HAVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 OVER FAR SW VA INTO SE WV TIL 8 PM.
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST WAS NARROW AXIS
ALONG THETA-E GRADIENT/RIDGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING
NE INTO THE PIEDMONT ATTM. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY
DECENT JOB OF SHIFTING THIS WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT IN SCATTERED
FASHION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG SO EXPECT
SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED HAIL.
THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS LINE TO GET INTO SE WV INTO GREENBRIER COUNTY BY 5 PM
SLIDING TOWARD BLF BETWEEN 5-6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHER PWATS IN THE AREA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE STORM MOTION SUGGESTS DECENT
MOVEMENT...BUT SRLY INFLOW INTO THE STORMS MAY ALLOW FOR
BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH FFG GUIDANCE IS HIGH.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...MODELS START TO
DIVERGE...WITH GFS/HRRR SPEEDING THINGS ALONG...WHILE LOCAL
WRF/ECWMF HOLD THINGS BACK A LITTLE LONGER. WENT TOWARD A BLEND
WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THREAT OF SVR MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS MOVES
TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL CUT BACK
INSTABILITY. SEEMS BEST FOCUS WILL BE INTO THE SHD VALLEY AND
NORTH AND WEST OF LYNCHBURG THIS EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER LONGER.
THINK OVERNIGHT THE TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH
DRYING BETWEEN THE WRN SLOPES AND PIEDMONT. MODELS HAVE VARIED ON
HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL THINK WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST...WE SHOULD BE GETTING AN EWD PUSH OF
DRIER AIR TO ALLOW MOST OF THE CWA TO DRY OUT TUESDAY. MAY SEE SHRA
SE WV UPSLOPE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SE PIEDMONT.
LOWS TONIGHT BE MILD/MUGGY WITH RAIN...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY
LOWER...BUT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE
MTNS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT THEN 500 MB
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS THIS
TIME FRAME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND +20 BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROF THAT FORECAST IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS WHEN ENCOUNTERING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. WPC
WAS FAVORING A STALLING THEN DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE IS NO ORGANIZED FOCUS OR LIFT THIS TIME FRAME TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY
FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AND
WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A SEVERE OR STRONGER STORM THREAT AFTER
SUNSET. THUS WILL INIT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IN WHERE TO
PUT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO IN LOWER IFR CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
APPEARS BEST SHOT AT DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE AT KDAN AND KLYH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND PERHAPS KBCB-KROA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO BRING ANOTHER BROKEN
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY TO
COVERAGE GIVEN LIKELY LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN SPOTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THIS POINT.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND FOLLOWS THE SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR LOWER CIGS. WENT A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THE GFS BUT STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WRN TERMINALS
KBLF/KLWB...WITH MOST TAF SITES INCREASE TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-WNW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME HINT OF POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF A
KLYH/KDAN LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT BLF/LWB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS BUT NOT INCLUDING AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL BE HEATING UP WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND MORNING
AT BCB/LWB...AND POSSIBLY LYH/DAN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER MIDWEEK...AND MARK THE
START OF A WARMING TREND WITH HOT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. WE ALREADY HAVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 OVER FAR SW VA INTO SE WV TIL 8 PM.
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST WAS NARROW AXIS
ALONG THETA-E GRADIENT/RIDGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING
NE INTO THE PIEDMONT ATTM. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE DOING A FAIRLY
DECENT JOB OF SHIFTING THIS WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT IN SCATTERED
FASHION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG SO EXPECT
SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED HAIL.
THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS LINE TO GET INTO SE WV INTO GREENBRIER COUNTY BY 5 PM
SLIDING TOWARD BLF BETWEEN 5-6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHER PWATS IN THE AREA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE STORM MOTION SUGGESTS DECENT
MOVEMENT...BUT SRLY INFLOW INTO THE STORMS MAY ALLOW FOR
BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH FFG GUIDANCE IS HIGH.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...MODELS START TO
DIVERGE...WITH GFS/HRRR SPEEDING THINGS ALONG...WHILE LOCAL
WRF/ECWMF HOLD THINGS BACK A LITTLE LONGER. WENT TOWARD A BLEND
WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THREAT OF SVR MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS MOVES
TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL CUT BACK
INSTABILITY. SEEMS BEST FOCUS WILL BE INTO THE SHD VALLEY AND
NORTH AND WEST OF LYNCHBURG THIS EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY
LINGER LONGER.
THINK OVERNIGHT THE TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH
DRYING BETWEEN THE WRN SLOPES AND PIEDMONT. MODELS HAVE VARIED ON
HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL THINK WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST...WE SHOULD BE GETTING AN EWD PUSH OF
DRIER AIR TO ALLOW MOST OF THE CWA TO DRY OUT TUESDAY. MAY SEE SHRA
SE WV UPSLOPE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SE PIEDMONT.
LOWS TONIGHT BE MILD/MUGGY WITH RAIN...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY
LOWER...BUT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE
MTNS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT THEN 500 MB
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS THIS
TIME FRAME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND +20 BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROF THAT FORECAST IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS WHEN ENCOUNTERING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. WPC
WAS FAVORING A STALLING THEN DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE IS NO ORGANIZED FOCUS OR LIFT THIS TIME FRAME TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY
FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AND
WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A SEVERE OR STRONGER STORM THREAT AFTER
SUNSET. THUS WILL INIT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IN WHERE TO
PUT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO IN LOWER IFR CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
APPEARS BEST SHOT AT DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE AT KDAN AND KLYH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND PERHAPS KBCB-KROA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO BRING ANOTHER BROKEN
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY TO
COVERAGE GIVEN LIKELY LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN SPOTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THIS POINT.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND FOLLOWS THE SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR LOWER CIGS. WENT A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THE GFS BUT STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WRN TERMINALS
KBLF/KLWB...WITH MOST TAF SITES INCREASE TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-WNW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME HINT OF POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF A
KLYH/KDAN LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT BLF/LWB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS BUT NOT INCLUDING AT THIS
POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL BE HEATING UP WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND MORNING
AT BCB/LWB...AND POSSIBLY LYH/DAN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN ERODE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING STARTING
WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED TOWARDS LAMP MOS. MODIFIED CLOUD
COVER WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHAPED TOWARDS MOSGUIDE. SLOWED
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODIFIED POPS
WITH WSR-88D TRENDS ALLOWING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
AS OF 903 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE
PASSING A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE MID LEVEL CAP HOLDING AS MOST GUIDANCE WAS TOO UNSTABLE
WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE CAP BEING ERODED VIA COOLING
ALOFT WITH THE PASSING WAVE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOP OFF OLD OUTFLOW GIVEN SOME POOLING OF
MOISTURE PER LOSS OF MIXING AS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING CAPES
OF UP TO 1K J/KG. HOWEVER LOSS OF HEATING ALONG WITH A DRIER NE
FLOW LIKELY TO HINDER MUCH COVERAGE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE FAR SW
PER LATEST HRRR WHICH INSISTS ON SCATTERED COVERAGE UNTIL LATE.
THUS LEFT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHILE
BASICALLY REMOVING ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE
REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALSO TRIMMED BACK
CLOUDS TO INIT PER IR PICS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIGHT EAST/SE FLOW AIDS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV
NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING IN LATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW...LOW
STRATUS DECK LIKELY TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY.
WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS SHALLOW WEDGE
LIKELY TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY LATE IN THE
DAY. WHERE THE WEDGE ERODES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO FIRE. CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE. SPC HAS
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND BASED
OFF MODELS APPEARS A WIND THREAT EXISTS GIVEN SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES INCREASING WITH THE TROUGH. THE WINDS AT MID LEVELS OF
50 KTS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TO MULTICELLULAR NATURE AND
POSSIBLE A FEW LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH A LESS THREAT EAST BUT A THREAT NONETHELESS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER EARLY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THINK ENOUGH MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
SCOUR OUT ANY MORNING CLOUDS.
GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER EAST MONDAY...AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA AREAS EAST TO
SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC WITH LOWER THREAT INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS THIS PERIOD SWING TO SUMMER TIME WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS INTO THE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW 70S MTNS. TUESDAY COULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FROPA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S-NEAR 80S
MTNS TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
LOOKING AT TRANSITION TO MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK
AS WESTERLIES ARE GOING BE SHIFTED NWD ACROSS NRN U.S. INTO CANADA
WITH BROAD WEAK FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING.
EARLY THOUGH...THE 5H TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH AREA OF LIFT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...SO KEPT OVERALL DRY
FORECAST IN THE NW CWA...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE SOUTH/EAST
CWA.
THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL WILL CROSS FROM
TX/LA INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN MORE OF
A VERY WARM/HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WED-THU...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVE STORMS.
HIGHS WED-THU WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS...TO
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
ROANOKE.
UP UNTIL THEN...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT...BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS WEAKER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE IMPULSES TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
A STRONGER RIDGE AND LESS STORM COVERAGE/WARMER TEMPS. LEANED
TOWARD WPC SOLUTION OF ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND WHICH FAVORS A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT
STILL MAINTAIN HUMID/WARM AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST...SOME 70S IF MORE STORMS FORM TO MID TO UPPER 80 EAST.
THE ECMWF BRING SFC FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY STILL
MAINTAINING SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER US...SO KEPT POPS AROUND INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
NIGHTTIME LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD STAYING ELEVATED IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST. MOISTENING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING A STRATUS DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS A
CHALLENGE AND APPEARS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS DELAYED TIMING COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK DOES
NOT FORM.
THERE IS LOWER CONFIENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUD
CLOUDS THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT DRYNESS/MIXING AND LACK OF
CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS A WINDOW FOR FOG AFTER 09Z THIS
MORNING.
MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SREF REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC IN
LOWERING CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO IFR WITH POSSIBLE LIFR IN
STRATUS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT
GIVEN TRENDS OFF MOST SOLUTIONS PLAN TO KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS EITHER IN THE PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING
EXCLUDING KBLF WHERE WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING
WEDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE ERODING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AN
AREA IS FREE OF THE WEDGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN RIDGES. OTRW MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO LIFT TO MVFR OR BETTER...AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OVERALL VFR EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE
NIGHT- EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-
VFR AT TIMES INTO MID OR LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI
WITH SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE. SFC LOW VCNTY LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
TRAILING FRONT INTO WRN WI/SE MN/ERN IA. MCV ASSOC WITH MORNING
COMPLEX SHIFTING EAST INTO LWR MI WHILE WATER VAPOR AND VSBL
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER SPEED MAX LIFTING NEWD INTO NW WI. MESO
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD/SCT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND WITH
ENOUGH HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARRIVES. WILL HAVE A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
INTO WI MON AFTN/EVE FOR RENEWED TSRA CHANCES.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A POTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR MADISON BY 7AM. IT IS AN ACTIVE
MCV WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALL
COME ROLLING IN THEN OUT BETWEEN 10-16Z THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS STUFF COULD MAINTAIN A DECENT
BOW-LIKE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WARNINGS UPSTREAM HAVE ENDED
FOR THE TIME BEING AND THAT MAY BE IT FOR SEVERE WITH THIS ROUND
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PUSHING 40KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY FROM THE 40S AND 50S
TO THE MID 60S AS IT MOVES IN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS HITTING 50
KTS JUST 1.5-2KFT FEET UP WITH THE CORE OF THE LLV JET...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH TO MIX THAT MOMENTUM DOWN FOR SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE.
NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO QUICK FLOODING.
THIS MCV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY 9 TO 11 AM. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS WITHOUT PRECIP. THEN WE
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF WE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH AND BUILD THE CAPE
UP BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN EXIT QUICKLY INTO ILLINOIS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEPT FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT THRESHOLD WHERE
IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A TAD COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED HAIL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
EXPECTED. SO NATURALLY...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE STORMS THIS MORNING. THESE MORNING STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF KMSN BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 16-
17Z.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY
KMKE/KENW. THIS THREAT WOULD JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM ABOUT MILWAUKEE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES...A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
ELEVATED WAVES. BUT THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF A HIGH RISK. THAT
SAID...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S...SO HYPOTHERMIA IS
LIKELY THE GREATER THREAT TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A POTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR MADISON BY 7AM. IT IS AN ACTIVE
MCV WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALL
COME ROLLING IN THEN OUT BETWEEN 10-16Z THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS STUFF COULD MAINTAIN A DECENT
BOW-LIKE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WARNINGS UPSTREAM HAVE ENDED
FOR THE TIME BEING AND THAT MAY BE IT FOR SEVERE WITH THIS ROUND
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PUSHING 40KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY FROM THE 40S AND 50S
TO THE MID 60S AS IT MOVES IN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS HITTING 50
KTS JUST 1.5-2KFT FEET UP WITH THE CORE OF THE LLV JET...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH TO MIX THAT MOMENTUM DOWN FOR SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE.
NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO QUICK FLOODING.
THIS MCV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY 9 TO 11 AM. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS WITHOUT PRECIP. THEN WE
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF WE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH AND BUILD THE CAPE
UP BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN EXIT QUICKLY INTO ILLINOIS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEPT FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT THRESHOLD WHERE
IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A TAD COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED HAIL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
EXPECTED. SO NATURALLY...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE STORMS THIS MORNING. THESE MORNING STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF KMSN BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 16-
17Z.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY
KMKE/KENW. THIS THREAT WOULD JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM ABOUT MILWAUKEE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BEACHES...A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
ELEVATED WAVES. BUT THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF A HIGH RISK. THAT
SAID...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S...SO HYPOTHERMIA IS
LIKELY THE GREATER THREAT TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
241 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH THIS MORNING. 1PM HUMIDITIES HERE AT
CHEYENNE DOWN TO AROUND 40 PERCENT MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE
AFTERNOON.AREA RADAR DOES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME CLUSTERS
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE REMAIN HIGH...58 AT
CHADRON AND 57 AT ALLIANCE...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS UP THAT WAY AS WELL.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING PEAK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z OR
SO. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA. SHOULD BE OUR NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK TUESDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12 TO
+14C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR
AREA AS MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA...MOVES UP ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHER
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIGHT NOW TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT
WILL SEE A RISK OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER WITH A FAIRLY
DECENT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...WE
DECREASE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST AND WE SEE A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE REGIME OF DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL AIRPORT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. CARRIED VCNTY TSRA ALL SITES
THROUGH 02Z...WITH A TEMPO MENTION OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR KBFF AND
KSNY WHERE COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE A BIT GREATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS. NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE ONCE AGAIN COME UNDER SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LATEST RIVER GAUGES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AT
MOST AREAS. ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT CONTINUED DECREASES. FOR THE WHITE RIVER UP IN DAWES
COUNTY NEBRASKA...FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS IN
ITS TRIBUTARIES HAS DECREASED...SO NARROWED DOWN AERIAL FLOOD
WARNING TO JUST THE RIVER. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE THAT WILL KEEP THE RIVER HIGH OUT THERE. NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1022 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE
STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MORRILL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS
DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST.
NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START
GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO
25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WYOMING TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE FROM
08Z TO 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR.
NEBRASKA TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THEN
BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 PM MST MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA WAS
LOCATED AT 27.8N LAT; 113.7W LONG...OR ABOUT 90 MILES WNW OF SANTA
ROSALIA MEXICO (WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE BAJA SPUR). BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST A
REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MAKES A GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA/NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAT COVERS MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MUCH OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
LARGE BATCH OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS IS JUST VIRGA (RAIN THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND). DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF AREAS THAT HAVE ACTUALLY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND EASTERN ZONES TOWARD NEW MEXICO.
THIS IS BECAUSE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE PHOENIX AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 30S...WHILE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT 04Z (9 PM MST) RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS TO SAFFORD...WHILE DEWPOINTS AREA IN
THE LOWER 50S AT TUCSON AND STILL IN THE 30S NORTHWEST OF TUCSON
TOWARD RED ROCK AND PICACHO PEAK. THIS MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS
THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL THEN HAVE A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE AT REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WAS THE CASE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THE 09/00Z KTWC SOUNDING REVEALS THIS SCENARIO WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 600MB...WHILE IT WAS VERY MOIST FROM 600MB-
250MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE SOUNDING WAS UP TO 1.04
INCHES...WHICH WAS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE 0.97 INCHES FROM 08/12Z.
A DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND RADAR SHOWS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX JUST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION QUITE WELL...WITH NUMEROUS CATEGORY
POP FOR THE NOGALES/SIERRA VISTA AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES THE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CATEGORY
POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TYPE POPS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO...THE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST WITH SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF BLANCA MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THAT
SAID...I DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST SINCE IT SEEMS TO CAPTURE RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS
QUITE WELL AND THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING
WELL BASED ON THOSE TRENDS.
AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 90
DEGS...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 82 DEGS
AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 99 DEGS...WHICH WAS NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 20K FT
AGL...WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 5-9K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT AGL BY 09/08Z. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR ABOUT 09/15Z... AND THEN SCT-
NUMEROUS -SHRA/-TSRA AFT 09/15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE BLANCA WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER BECOMING THE EARLIEST LANDFALLING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON RECORD FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...BLANCA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. AS OF 2 PM SHE WAS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAJA SPUR AND HAD BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED VERTICALLY.
MID LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS LIKE IT`S SHEARING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
OUR GENERAL DIRECTION...WHILE THE REMNANT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL COME INTO
PLAY TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUES (ALBEIT SLOWLY
INITIALLY) WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW UP TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF US...TO 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THAT. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH IS 1.43 (6/12/97) AND THE OVERALL ALL TIME
HIGHEST FOR JUNE IS 1.7 (6/29/84). AT LEAST THE EARLY ONE AND MAYBE
BOTH OF THOSE ARE IN TROUBLE.
FOR TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SHEARING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH...COMBINED WITH
THE MOISTURE...SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
INITIALLY THE UPSTREAM WESTERLY FLOW UNDER ALL OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BE MOIST AS EVERYTHING LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD BE GUIDING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WE EXPECT TO HANG ONTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A DROP
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK DECAYING OR STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIS NEXT ESTF UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE LATEST
HRRR AND COSPA SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION IS MORPHING MORE INTO A
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKES. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGES, JUST UPPING POPS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
DELMARVA CONVECTION MOVES THRU THE PHILLY METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH. THEN DELAYING THE WESTERN PCPN ARRIVAL BY ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUNT OF TIME. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON OR CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG, BUT STILL MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. RAIN-COOLED AIR IN WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION CONSISTS OF TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP MUCH
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TUESDAYS WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE SFC FRONT
WASHES OUT. POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER N THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH-OUT. THERE COULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVEL NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A RESULT, KNOCKING A LITTLE OFF THE
HEAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE IT`S SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AS WELL. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY WITH THE FURTHER
NORTH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND THE ECMWF BEING
COOLER. FOR NOW WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS DO NOT START THE DAY OFF ON AN EASY NOTE, WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE MORNING CONTINUES OUTSIDE OF ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LAST BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 07Z. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND, WE ARE EXPECTING A MVFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBYS TO
DEVELOP. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
KPHL METRO AIRPORTS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
LLWS CONCERNS, GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING TOO STRONG WITH THE LLJ VS
THE KDIX VAD WIND PROFILE. LLWS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED. THIS JET
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z.
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP PRECEDING A PRE FRONTAL
TROF, MOST LIKELY FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS EAST AND SOUTH.
TSTMS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY NOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE KRDG AND KABE TAFS BECAUSE OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED
TO CONFIDENTLY PLACE IN THE TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEST
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
THIS EVENING...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WEST
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE VWP AT KDOV AND KDIX ARE VERIFYING LESS THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING,E ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM. WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND AN INVERSION IN PLACE, WE WILL CANCEL THE SCA
FOR DELAWARE BAY.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND
STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CHOP. SCA
FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS DO NOT
SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS AROUND FOUR FEET TUESDAY EVENING, SCA EXTENSION UNLIKELY ATTM.
SEAS THEN AROUND THREE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TUESDAY IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
ONCE THE FEW REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY REQUIRES A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NIGHTTIME HOURLY TRENDS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WITH LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING...EXPECT FOG TO LOWER VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT THE TAF
SITES. ANY FOG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MSTR RETURNS IN
A DVLPG SW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE
OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. AS THIS FNT CLOSES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW
STORMS WL CAUSE CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT WL END THE
TS THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WITH LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING...EXPECT FOG TO LOWER VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT THE TAF
SITES. ANY FOG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MSTR RETURNS IN
A DVLPG SW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE
OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. AS THIS FNT CLOSES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW
STORMS WL CAUSE CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT WL END THE
TS THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF
RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AS THE REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER MILD SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THUS GOING FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS REAL GOOD FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...BY TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SWINGING INTO THE REGION, AND PROVIDE IMPETUS TO PUSH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND STEADILY EAST. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER, AND WITH ADDED ENERGY FROM FRONT-END 100KT JET AT
250 MB WE`RE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST CONCENTRATED FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT ONCE AGAIN IF YOU BELIEVE THE
BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY STORMS. HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAINLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
EVENING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
SREF/MOS BLENDED QPF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD LEAD TO SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO A FEW STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.
WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE TAFS, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY BASED ON HRRR AND BTV-4 WRF OUTPUT. I`VE SHOWN
5-6 SM -SHRA THROUGH 11-13Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK UNTIL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER RE-DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT I`VE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE
EVENING AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY
TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING
THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OWING IN LARGE PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND POSITIONING OF PERTURBED AND CONFLUENT
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD PUSH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT INTERESTINGLY BECOMES STRONGER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A 324 DM 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. INCONSISTENCY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS
SUGGESTS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OR
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITIONING WILL BE EVIDENT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. AN ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SINCE 324 DM
BECOMES PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE THAT
MAINTAINS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH LESSER STRENGTH. THE
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WOULD YIELD A FRONTAL POSITIONING
THAT SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...AND ALLOW THE RELATIVELY
HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE (INCLUDING AROUND
SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM A LIFTING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME.
LOOKING AT DAILY DETAILS...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST MARGINALLY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST A
RETARDED SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE HAVE EXPANDED
POPS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A FAIRLY PROMINENT
LAYER OF CUMULUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO
91.
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH...DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANEMIC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST BETS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 94 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 93 AT KRDU THE WARMEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2. HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 594DM OVER AL/MS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND THREATEN OUR REGION WITH
A BACKDOOR LIKE APPROACH. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
FRONT WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL
OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
HOLDS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PIEDMONT HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE NICELY AMIDST SOME
LINGERING WEAK MUCAPE AND A 30-35KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RADAR SIGNATURES AND VARIOUS METARS SUGGEST 30-
40KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WITH FULL
FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES AND REALIGNMENTS OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THE BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TRANSITION ZONE FIZZLING OUT IN TERMS OF
BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOSS OF
HEATING RESULTING IN DWINDLING CAPE AND INCREASING CINH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO DROPPED AS WELL EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. WE
SHOULD MAINTAIN VERY MARGINAL VALUES OF SKINNY CAPE (MAINLY UNDER 50
J/KG) THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALONG WITH PASSAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL PW
VALUES AND WEAK DPVA IN THE BASE OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGH...
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. THE NSSL WRF...
3 KM NAMRR... AND LATEST HRRR SHOW THIS INITIAL CONVECTION BREAKING
UP BUT BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION (NOW OVER SE
TN) LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THESE MODELS... WHICH ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB WITH EXISTING PATTERN... HAVE TAKEN THE INITIALLY HIGH POPS IN
THE TRIAD BACK DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE... THEN EXPAND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA... FOCUSING
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SW CWA. MILD DEWPOINTS SHOULD WARM A BIT
FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE BY DAWN... TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM MONDAY... STRONG HEATING OF THE
MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE THIS CONVECTION TEMPORARILY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NE TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUSTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO OUR NW THROUGH
SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT AFTER 03Z. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SOLID
CHANCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
FORECAST BULK SHEAR NEAR 30KTS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST
LIKELIHOOD OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IS REMOTE AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM MONDAY...
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING...AND INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILL COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH. DID NOTE THAT LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A
GSB-MEB LINE. WITH SHEAR AXIS LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS DURING MAX HEATING AND PRECIP WATER 1.5-1.7 INCHES...STILL
EXPECT BEST CONCENTRATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THIS
REGION. FOR NOW WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE SE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NW. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH BULK OF
CONVECTION DIMINISHING PRIOR TO 10 PM. HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
LOWS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM A LIFTING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME.
LOOKING AT DAILY DETAILS...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST MARGINALLY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST A
RETARDED SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE HAVE EXPANDED
POPS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A FAIRLY PROMINENT
LAYER OF CUMULUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO
91.
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH...DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANEMIC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST BETS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 94 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 93 AT KRDU THE WARMEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2. HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 594DM OVER AL/MS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND THREATEN OUR REGION WITH
A BACKDOOR LIKE APPROACH. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
FRONT WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATERINSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AERODROMES
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMOT...BUT THE CHANCES WERE TOO
SMALL TO PUT INTO THE TAF. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 09Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 14-19 KNOTS MAINLY DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS. BY 19Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WAS HOLDING
TOGETHER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CLIP THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR INDICATE THE CONVECTION WOULD MISS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
THE RAP BRINGS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. AFTER DAYBREAK IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS OR JAMES VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO AGAIN SLOW THE INTRODUCTION AND
PROGRESSION OF POPS TONIGHT. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR
AND RAP GENERALLY CONCUR WITH THE NAM...BUT STILL HAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE WEST. OUTSIDE OF THE ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE SLOWED
THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
NEAR TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
03Z OR AFTER. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED
STRETCHING THROUGH WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSHES INTO
THE AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PUSHING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAINLY 80S BEHIND IT. LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SETTLING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COMPLICATED FLOW ALOFT
HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM.
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT
ON NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. HOWEVER...AS LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PHASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS BECOME LESS HARMONIOUS. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY. AS OF NOW...SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AERODROMES
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMOT...BUT THE CHANCES WERE TOO
SMALL TO PUT INTO THE TAF. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 09Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 14-19 KNOTS MAINLY DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS. BY 19Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
APPEARS THAT A VORT MAX IS OVERHEAD AND MOVING NE. HOWEVER...MORE
FORCING IS OFF TO THE WEST AND CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO SERN
INDIANA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AT 1 AM.
THE THREAT REMAINS HEAVY RAIN - MAINLY FROM TRAINING ECHOES. THE
RESPONSE ON THE LARGER WATERWAYS IS SO FAR ALMOST NIL. NEWEST HRR
AND RAP HAVE A GOOD CLUE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AND
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF WHERE IT WILL BE GOING. THEY
EVEN CAUGHT THE STUFF WHICH RECENTLY DEVELOPD OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
DEWPOINTS PRETTY HIGH AND TEMPS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
BOUNDARY LAYER JET MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/ISOLATED
THUNDER AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
AT THIS HOUR. WILL WATCH FOR TRAINING...BUT ALL OF THIS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS MOST OF THE AREA IS STILL
RUNNING DEFICITS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE 850 MB JET...UPPER SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-100+ KT 250 MB JET
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE FORCING OVERNGIHT FOR LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 5H
TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...CATEGORICAL POPS CARRIED FOR
MOST OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MANY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
WESTERN OH AND EASTERN MI. EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS INTO
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL TO THE WEST...AND A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
AID MORE STORM FORMATION...AS THE STRONG JUNE SUN WORKS ON
MODERATE DEWPOINTS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL LATER THIS AFT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WINDY UNTIL LATE
AFT.
SOME VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG STORMS NEAR BFD
ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS RIGHT. INTENSE WARM ADVECTION
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM FORMATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERS RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A FRONT NEARBY...AND FAST
FLOW...RESULTING IN SYSTEMS LIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...CHC OF STORMS NEAR BFD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THU-SAT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
APPEARS THAT A VORT MAX IS OVERHEAD AND MOVING NE. HOWEVER...MORE
FORCING IS OFF TO THE WEST AND CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO SERN
INDIANA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AT 1 AM.
THE THREAT REMAINS HEAVY RAIN - MAINLY FROM TRAINING ECHOES. THE
RESPONSE ON THE LARGER WATERWAYS IS SO FAR ALMOST NIL. NEWEST HRR
AND RAP HAVE A GOOD CLUE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AND
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF WHERE IT WILL BE GOING. THEY
EVEN CAUGHT THE STUFF WHICH RECENTLY DEVELOPD OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
DEWPOINTS PRETTY HIGH AND TEMPS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
BOUNDARY LAYER JET MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/ISOLATED
THUNDER AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
AT THIS HOUR. WILL WATCH FOR TRAINING...BUT ALL OF THIS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS MOST OF THE AREA IS STILL
RUNNING DEFICITS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE 850 MB JET...UPPER SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-100+ KT 250 MB JET
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE FORCING OVERNGIHT FOR LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 5H
TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...CATEGORICAL POPS CARRIED FOR
MOST OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LINGERING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST...CAUSED BY MOIST SWRLY
FLOW ASCENDING THE MTNS. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BTWN 12Z-14Z...AS
LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND CONDS RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-SAT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
BROAD NW FLOW ACROSS WRN CNDA/NRN PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST CROSSING THE SASKATCHEWAN
PROVINCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS CROSSING
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN MT AND APPROACHING NW ND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ND TODAY AND INTO NW SD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MODELS TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE...NOW SUGGESTING
CNTRL SD REACHING WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS
SCNTRL SD HITTING 100. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP MAY BREAK. OTHERWISE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TO CNTRL SD WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NE WY/FAR WRN SD. WITH HIGHER THETA E ACROSS
THE AREAS...THIS WILL BE BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPROACH FROM THE SW. THE GFS IS HAS
THE MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS
COMPLETELY DRY. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SL CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED 700/850MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER AIR FORCING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA WED...AND INCREASING
COVERAGE/QPF WED NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW SD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH 700MB LOW
CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WDSPRD
TSRA LATE WED INTO THU. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH NEXT APPROACHING TROF. WARM
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SLOW WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1111 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL BE QUIET AS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS RESULT
OF DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO EASE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DISSIPATE. THERE IS A
SUBTLE WAVE BACK ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. RAP ACTUALLY RUNS WITH THIS TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...WHERE A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK ON
THE LARGER SCALE...SO WENT ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEPT ANY
ISOLATED PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT...SIMPLY
MARKING AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
TUESDAY EASILY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 90S WILL BE
COMMON WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
925 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 90S WITH EVEN MODEST
MIXING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE DAY.
HOWEVER... CONVERGENCE INDICATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
MINIMAL...MAIN DYNAMICS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEP
MIXING WILL ELIMINATE A GOOD DEAL OF CAPE. ENOUGH SHALLOW FRONTAL
FORCING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH POOLING OF MOISTURE TO WRING UP A 500-
1000 J/KG CAPE. HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE FAIRLY LINEAR AND VECTORS
ORIENTED TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
TIME...ONLY VERY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FIND ANY CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AND THAT WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA CLOSEST
TO THE FRONTAL FORCING. INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GENERATE STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT. A MARGINAL...BUT VERY
CONDITIONAL...RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM APPROPRIATE...
MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WITH COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST QUICKLY
TUESDAY EVENING AND AIR WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER SUNSET. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW COVERAGE OF WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING...MAINLY EARLY EVENING...
FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT AND
MODEST CLOUD COVER WILL PASS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD
LEAVE SKIES EVERYWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR LATE NIGHT. VERY MODEST
COOLING WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 60 NORTH WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AFTER THE HOT DAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EAST AND DRY UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE 80 TO 86
RANGE...OF COURSE SOME NOTCHES BELOW TUESDAYS HEAT.
THERE IS ENOUGH THERMAL SUPPORT AND ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
LIKELY COPIOUS INCOMING MOISTURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. WILL NOT MENTION THE HEAVY THREAT IN THE
GRIDS THIS FAR AHEAD IN DEFERENCE TO DOUBTS IN THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE. CERTAINLY THE PATTERNS OF SOME OF THE COPIOUS MODEL
RAINFALL OUTPUT CAN CHANGE EVEN IF THEY HAVE THE GENERAL THREAT
NAILED. BUT WE CAN CERTAINLY EMPHASIZE THE WIDESPREAD NATURE AND
POSSIBLY THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN SOME OF OUR PRODUCTS.
AGAIN...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS FROM THE CURRENT DYING
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM MAY FIGURE INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES
OF COURSE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BETWEEN COOLING AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE BUT NOT
COMPLETE END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A DAY OR SO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...AGAIN
UPPING THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONGLY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER. A COOL REGIME WILL
WARM JUST A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. SOME
RIDGING BY MONDAY BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A DRY DAY
MONDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION IN MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE WEEKEND HAVING
GAINED A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER LOOKING DRY A COUPLE DAYS
AGO...AND MONDAY COULD DO THE SAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY SPOTTY MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF KHON/KFSD THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY...BUT SEEING
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING UPSTREAM AND THUS ANTICIPATE NO
MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT THE KHON/KFSD
TAF LOCATIONS. SECOND WAVE COULD BRING SPOTTY MID LEVEL CONVECTION
TO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION
OF MORE THAN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA
WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING AS THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA ARE CERTAINLY MOIST
ENOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES NOTED AT TUCSON AND 1.6 INCHES
NOTED AT YUMA. BOTH VALUES ARE OBVIOUSLY WELL INTO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT
SURPRISINGLY SOME LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/. AROUND PHOENIX MOST OF THE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
TRACE WHEREAS A FEW SITES AROUND YUMA ARE STARTING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR
WHAT IT`S WORTH...ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE AT YUMA WOULD BE A NEW
RECORD FOR THE DATE.
AS WE`RE NOW INTO THE EVENT...THE FULL SUITE OF HI-RES MODEL DATA IS
AVAILABLE AND THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS /HIT AND MISS/ WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
CERTAINLY BLENDS WELL WITH THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. TOOK A
LOOK THROUGH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND ASIDE FROM SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS...IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS
POINT. DESPITE IT`S SLOW ARRIVAL...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES
INLAND.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH MODELS TAKE THE REMAINS OF BLANCA/S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NW-
WARD INTO SE CA/EXTREME SW AZ TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND BRING
0.15-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN TO THAT REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS AS HIGH AS -
3C)...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SPARSE...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA/SW AZ...WHERE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY. STILL...EVEN WITHOUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS...TROPICAL WARM RAIN PROCESSES CAN STILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF
THE GREATER PHX AREA MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...THAT IS WHEN THE WRF AND
GFS PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO REGION FROM SE CA AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROF...THAT IS NOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...MOVES INLAND INTO
CA/NV...AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WESTERLY. SOME SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT AND DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. SOME SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHX AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS BY WED NIGHT. THE RAIN AND
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND WED...WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW
AZ NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 80S TODAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER...WEAKER UPPER TROF WILL INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHX.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY... RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY SKIES SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH 02Z WED...CIGS
LOWERING TO BETWEEN 8-10 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DEEP REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH 18Z TUE...CLDS
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND BECOMING BKN-OVC 6-8 THSD AGL BY 18Z TUE.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN BY 18Z TUE. FROM
18Z TUE TO 04Z WED...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER IN LIGHT OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. CIGS BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6 THSD AGL BY 23Z TUE. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR HEAVIER SHWRS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL STABILIZE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
349 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER OF SHASTA COUNTY, BUT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
MOST PEOPLE WILL BE WAKING UP TO A WARM MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM RANGED 72 TO 84 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. ONLY THE DELTA REGION IS
A BIT COOLER WITH TRAVIS AFB MEASURING 66 AT 3 AM. EVIDENCE THAT
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BE MAKING HER RETURN TODAY AS WINDS AT
TRAVIS ARE ABOUT 15 MPH AND THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS TRENDING THICKER...NOW ABOUT 1500 FT AS
OPPOSED TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT WAS LESS THAN 1000 FT THICK. ALL
THANKS TO THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING FOR TODAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MAX
TEMPERATURE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS INFLUENCED
BY THE DELTA BREEZE. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS ARE BOTH INDICATING
THAT THE DELTA BREEZE WILL REALLY START TO KICK IN AROUND 1 PM AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY,
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CAN THE DELTA BREEZE WORK HER
COOLING MAGIC. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCY FOR
HIGHS TODAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM (SOMETIMES CLOSE TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE). HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES TO TRY AND BLEND
BOTH THOSE MODELS. THE GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE SACRAMENTO METRO
REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (PERHAPS
MORE IF THE DELTA BREEZE STRENGTHENS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED).
FOR REGIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, THE COOLING TREND WILL ONLY BE
A FEW DEGREES TODAY. SO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DELTA AND MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE IN
THE 70S TO 80S.
ANOTHER "COOL" FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA ARE WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOCAL THIS MORNING TO INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS CLOUDS APPROACHING SANTA MARIA AND BAKERSFIELD AT 3:30
AM WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE OCEAN. THE REMNANTS OF
BLANCA WILL ALSO AID IN THE COOLING TREND TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TO POP OVER THE WESTERN SIERRA AND COASTAL RANGE AROUND 1
PM WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. NAM SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, ALL OF OUR CWA WILL NOTICE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EFFECT FROM THE LOW AS IT TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL CA. MUCH OF
THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 80S! THIS WILL PUT US NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT SHOULD START DIMINISHING AFTER 5 PM. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP) WHILE THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH TO OVER AN INCH.
THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MEANS OUR REGION
WILL RETURN TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETS UP AGAIN OVER NORCAL AND VALLEY HIGHS
WILL SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
NORCAL IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND A
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DIPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. IT IS A
FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH, SO WE WOULD EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SUNDAY OVER SHASTA COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE DELTA BREEZE AND COOL THE SURROUNDING VALLEY AREA.
THE PATTERN STABILIZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORCAL, WHICH
STILL REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE
TROUGH PLACEMENT AND LIMITED AMPLITUDE WILL ONLY MAKE FOR A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN VALLEY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S
FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS). JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY AND
POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY MOUNTAINS, BUT COULD
IMPACT VALLEY SITES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER REGION. DELTA BREEZE INCREASES LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
344 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BRING A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAYS BLISTERING HEAT...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE...BUT IT WILL COME AT A PRICE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KERN COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS IT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT`S ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.25
INCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT OUR CURRENT PATTERN IS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ANDRES IS SPINNING OFF THE COAST AND IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BLANCA. ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE
SEEN CONVECTION BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD PVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL JET MAX COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE UPPER LOW CENTER TO MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS CENCAL AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CENCAL
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST OF THE
SIERRA. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SIERRA THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY WE SEE THE RETURN OF THE EPAC
RIDGE. THIS ALSO MEANS THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WITH
MANY LOCALES GETTING BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SJV AND
KERN DESERT NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND
DIABLO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-09 110:2014 66:1954 74:2014 48:1901
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 73:2014 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KBFL 06-09 110:2014 72:1954 78:1973 45:1908
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 76:2014 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 76:2014 42:1913
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR REGION FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE BACK SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVG GENLY NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE BUT MENTION OF THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED. A WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND IS EVIDENT ON THE VIS STLT
LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY FCST DECREASING RH IN THE RAP MODEL.
A FAIRLY STG VORT CENTER IS NOTED OVER NW PA MOVG NEWD INTO WRN NY
STATE. MOST OF THE CURRENT STRONGER CONVECTION ATTM IS ASSOCD WITH
THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD STAY WELL N/W OF OUR FCST AREA.
SFC DEWPTS ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND WITH DAYTIME HTG
SOME INSTBY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER ERN PA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED OVER WRN PA IS FCST TO WORK ITS WAY EWD INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCD SFC TROF SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...ALTHO DRIER AIR
MOVG IN ALOFT MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY S/W OVER DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. A MARGINAL CHC FOR SVR STORMS IS INDICATED OVER NRN HALF
NJ AND ADJACENT PA WHERE DYNAMICS ARE SMWHT STRONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS OF PCPN GETTING OFFSHORE BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING
SOUTH. ANY LINGERING POPS EARLY FOR TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO THE COLD
POOL NORTHEAST AND ALL DONE BY 00Z. WITH THE PREDICTED 500MB FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL FAST WITH NVA, RAPID CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
PREDICTED. SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM. NOT SURE PENDING HOW MUCH
PCPN OCCURS IF IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUBLIC IMPACT. FOR THIS
REASON WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. MIN TEMPS WERE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW STAT GUIDANCE IN OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS AND CLOSER TO
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN THIS
WEAKENS AS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BUILDS SOME DURING
FRIDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS, THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO
AMPLIFY A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY WITH SOME
RIDGING THEN RETURNING SUNDAY. THE FLOW MAY THEN TURN MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER IT MAY TEND TO STALL OR EVEN OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BUILDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATER IN THE WEEK, HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED SOME AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL EASE OFF THE COAST AND THEN
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE INTO
OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL TEND TO BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT THEREFORE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
SHOULD SLOW.
A DRY BUT RATHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN A VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS WE CARRIED LOW CHC POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR THE AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MANY AREAS SHOULD
GET TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND IF THE DEW POINTS
STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THEN HEAT INDICES ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY ESPECIALLY. THE
POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHC THURSDAY EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR AREA FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY THEN SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
INITIALLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
ENHANCED SOME BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW. THERE COULD BE A LEE SIDE TROUGH FRIDAY THAT MAY HELP FOCUS
SOME CONVECTION AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
A POTENTIAL CAP THOUGH MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR EAST.
THE CONVECTIVE CHCS SHOULD INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD AND SOME HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME
ORGANIZATION SATURDAY IN AN WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY
POTENTIALLY REACHING 95 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING. THE FLOW ON
FRIDAY MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER COOLING SEA BREEZE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME COOLING THEN
STARTS TO TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LURKING IN THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BUILDS SOME. BASED ON THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE FRONT AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THIS MAY THEN CREEP NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND HOW
MUCH FORCING CAN BE GENERATED. SOME GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WE USED
A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY NOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE KABE TAF BECAUSE OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY PLACE IN THE TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
THIS EVENING...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WEST
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO CLOUDS PREDICTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 10
KNOTS THURSDAY, THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER TIMES OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE IN TIME OR AREA WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINE FOR COASTAL AREAS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BEING
OVERFORECAST, WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALREADY AROUND 5 FEET
AND IN LINE WITH WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. IT NOW DROPS SEAS FASTER
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE PREDICTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES CLOSER TO OUR MARINE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THEN STALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH INTO SATURDAY. IT SHOULD THEN SETTLE BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHIFTING WINDS, ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
536 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ATTM. FOLLOWING THE HRRR OUTPUT...COULD SEE VCTS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO
COVER THIS WITH VCTS MENTION AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANY TEMPO TSRA
EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE TSRA IS CLOSE THIS MORNING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN AR.
TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TODAY
MAKING THE FRONT MORE DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THIS SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER W TX BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE
AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SE CONUS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NW OF US...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 30 10
MLU 92 71 92 71 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 93 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 91 71 92 71 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 94 72 92 72 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 94 71 92 72 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 92 73 91 72 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS IN A DEVELOPING SW FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL END THE TS
THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OWING IN LARGE PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND POSITIONING OF PERTURBED AND CONFLUENT
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD PUSH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT INTERESTINGLY BECOMES STRONGER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A 324 DM 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. INCONSISTENCY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS
SUGGESTS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OR
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITIONING WILL BE EVIDENT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. AN ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SINCE 324 DM
BECOMES PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE THAT
MAINTAINS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH LESSER STRENGTH. THE
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WOULD YIELD A FRONTAL POSITIONING
THAT SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...AND ALLOW THE RELATIVELY
HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE (INCLUDING AROUND
SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
CONVECTION CROSSING CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
AND WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY...LEAVING A FEW AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS...INCLUDING LIFR/IFR AT KINT/KGSO. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT BY MID-MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU. WHILE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL STORMS IS UNCERTAIN...RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS INDICATED
A BAND SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY LATE MORNING AND IMPACT KFAY BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS BELOW
AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT TAF SITES IS LOW.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES
TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR KISN/KMOT AT 12Z IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
616 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES
TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR KISN/KMOT AT 12Z IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES SHOW 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE CLEAR SKIES
YESTERDAY. HRRR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FASTER MORNING WARM-
UP, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 94 70 95 72 / 10 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0
GAGE OK 92 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 94 70 95 72 / 0 10 0 20
DURANT OK 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
552 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING
EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT IS WRAPPING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON...
AND MAY CLIP THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WITH A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO LATE SPRING NORMALS AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS REACHING LANE COUNTY AS CELLS NEAR ROSEBURG ARE
GETTING A LITTLE TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE NORTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS LINE DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW OREGON AND ASSOCIATED
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...STILL SHOWN BY LATEST RAP RUNS. NONETHELESS
CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD TO OUR SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AND SEEM TO
HAVE SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THIS
MORNING LANE COUNTY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CYCLE DOWN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SURFACE
BASED AND FAVORING THE CASCADES LATER TODAY.
ALSO DECREASED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WEAGLE
/PREV DISC ISSUED 321 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FINALLY LOOSENING ITS GRIP ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING TO
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS REDUCED SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS THE
MARINE LAYER TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE A BIT. SUSPECT THE BEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA DOWNSTREAM OF PDX/TTD...WITH MAX
TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WILLAMETTE AND TUALATIN VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY TOUCH 90 DEGREES AGAIN
TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE
AIR MASS REMAINS WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS +18 TO +20 DEG C. ALL IN ALL
TODAY WILL PROBABLY FEEL LIKE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE.
MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KMAX NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO SW OREGON AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALOFT WRAPPING
AROUND OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON RETURN FLOW. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLIP LANE COUNTY
TODAY...DUE TO WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE
ABOVE 700 MB. A COUPLE VERY SMALL CELLS HAVE TRIED TO POP UP NEAR
OAKRIDGE...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED YET. IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY
LINE...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ACCESS TO HIGH
THETA-E AIR ARE. THAT SAID WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE OR/CA BORDER OVER THE COMING HOURS. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH FCST POPS/WX...BUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
THEY COULD COME WITH PROLIFIC LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700 MB.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS SHOULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR
FOR DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW...WITH MORE PROLIFIC COOLING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED/THU. THIS WILL BE RELATIVE COOLING...ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES INLAND VERSUS YESTERDAY...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH THE DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW...MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT. THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD FURTHER SERVE TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WED/THU.
WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL
GAPS AND COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT/WED AS COOLER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE DISTRICT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN FULL FORCE ALONG
THE COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING UP THE COLUMBIA TO THE PDX METRO WED
AND THU MORNINGS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER
TEMPERATURES. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRI SHOULD AID
ANOTHER NW MARINE PUSH..BUT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH...THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
JUST GETTING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF OF A
LOW OVER THE NW...BUT THE NET EFFECT REMAINS A DRY PATTERN CONTINUING
WITH ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-06Z. MARINE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
11-18Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 05Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-06Z. /64
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND DRIVEN WITH A DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND
8 SECONDS TILL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. /64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT THE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS
AREA..WITH ANOTHER PRONOUNCED REGION OF ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG
OVER MUCH OF OUR OREGON FORECAST ZONES. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DESCHUTES COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH
CROOK...GRANT...SOUTHERN UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST 06Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND TRIES TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY PRIOR
TO 18Z OVER MUCH OF OUR OREGON ZONES...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE SO LEANED
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DRIER UNTIL AFTER 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOK
FOR MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST
RATHER SLOWLY NEAR 10-20 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCAPE VALUES HOVER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN
THE OREGON MOUNTAINS AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 25KTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DROPPING BACK
ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
STILL PUT THE VALLEYS/BASINS BETWEEN 95-101 FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS LATER
TODAY...THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THUS HAVE
SEVERAL RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. BY LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS/T`STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LIKELY DRYING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS DRY/BREEZY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
FIRE WEATHER RELATED ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
BUT ON A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE VALLEYS AND BASINS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY. 77
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ZONAL ON FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN COOLER AIR TO THE CWA. THE
FORMING UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING BECAUSE THE TROUGH WILL BE SO WIDE
AND BROAD. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE WIND MAY COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF FAR NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT AND REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE COOLING TREND. 88
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL EFFECT TAF SITES KRDM AND KBDN. ELSEWHERE THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT THEN WILL
INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 60 92 57 / 10 0 0 0
ALW 97 64 93 61 / 10 0 0 0
PSC 101 61 97 56 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 99 60 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 100 59 96 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 96 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 51 88 42 / 20 10 0 0
LGD 92 55 87 49 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 94 55 89 47 / 30 30 10 0
DLS 97 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/88/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE
WINDSHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 17-18 UTC.
OTHER THAN A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS AS LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH GRAZES THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM
THAT DEVELOPS INVOF OF A GIVEN TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. MAIN HAZARDS
OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE AIR MASS REMAINED RATHER MOIST FOR JUNE AS SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT THE RAPID STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...A
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS ELSWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MEDUIM RANGES MODELS
WERE SIMILAR WITH DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
MOSITURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL START
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT MONDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/23Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-8K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 9-14K FT THRU
10/09Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K
FT AGL. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THRU 10/06Z...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 10/17Z. AFT 10/17Z...
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25-28 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF KFHU...
KALK...KDUG AND KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
THEN FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
903 AM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR A BIT THIS MORNING SOUTH OF TUCSON. THIS
CLEARING WILL BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE SURFACE HEATING. AT
ANY RATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THE TRENDS WELL.
THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF TSRA...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE COVERAGE OF -SHRA WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
-SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
BASES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6-12K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTH OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
INTO MONDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON WHERE VARIOUS 09/12Z NWP MODELS DEPICT THE
MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OCCUR. THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO NRN ARIZONA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON TO PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WED WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.75
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
LATER TODAY...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME.
A DRIER REGIME WILL START WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MAINLY NE OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THUR-FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH
DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY SUN NIGHT. THESE MODELS LINGERED SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS INTO MON. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SAT-MON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON. A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WED AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
220 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
TO NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY REACHING
THE IL/WI STATE LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSITION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERHAPS MAINLY NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOUTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE AND
LOCATION IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH BUT
WHEREVER PRECIP SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
COULD BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ARE QUITE
TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE AND THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. COULD BE A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WITH LOWER 70S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO POOL IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE AREA...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ENDING THE
PRECIP THREAT WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY ENDING UP DRY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
ON SUNDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WITH PERHAPS A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPS COULD BE WELL INTO THE MID/
UPPER 80S. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HAS SET UP WLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS INLAND WARMING WITH TEMPS
IN THE 80S SHOULD SET UP A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE STRONGER AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND MAKE
LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. SO...WINDS AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD START
OUT THE PERIOD WLY...BUT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EWD...WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SWLY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN WISCONSIN TO NERN IOWA...INCREASING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO ARND 12KT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW SFC BASED INVERSION
INCREASING TO 40-45KT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR LLWS FROM ARND MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY ARND 15Z TO ALLOW THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST...BUT MIXING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 20-25KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
PASS ACROSS NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY/NWLY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS SQUEEZE THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECREASING SFC
BASED FORCING. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE
GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT
BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH.
ITS POSSIBLE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY
TO NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AND THEN TURN NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
GRADIENT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BECOME TOO STRONG. BUT AREAS OF FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS PROBABLE IN THE CORN BELT/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC TO EVEN
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE FAVORS SUCH WITH 1.) CWA
UNDER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND FREQUENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS RIDGING ALONG THIS...2.) CONTINUOUSLY WARM AND LIKELY OFTEN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND...3.) PWATS IN THE TOP TEN PERCENTILE
REGULARLY IN THIS TIME. SPEAKING TO THE LAST POINT...WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH THAT COMES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ENTERING THE SW
U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED INTO THE MIDWEST. SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THAT TRACK AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE IMPULSE...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A
WELL-VERIFYING MODEL BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED. THIS LENDS ITSELF
TO A LOT OF CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT CONVEYS
THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL GET REFINED IN
TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HAS SET UP WLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS INLAND WARMING WITH TEMPS
IN THE 80S SHOULD SET UP A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE STRONGER AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND MAKE
LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. SO...WINDS AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD START
OUT THE PERIOD WLY...BUT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EWD...WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SWLY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN WISCONSIN TO NERN IOWA...INCREASING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO ARND 12KT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW SFC BASED INVERSION
INCREASING TO 40-45KT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR LLWS FROM ARND MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY ARND 15Z TO ALLOW THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST...BUT MIXING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 20-25KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
PASS ACROSS NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY/NWLY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS SQUEEZE THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECREASING SFC
BASED FORCING. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE...THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD AND HIGH DEWPOINT
AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE
EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME HIGHER
WINDS.
PERIODS OF FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND
VERY MOIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBILE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS PROBABLE IN THE CORN BELT/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC TO EVEN
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE FAVORS SUCH WITH 1.) CWA
UNDER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND FREQUENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS RIDGING ALONG THIS...2.) CONTINUOUSLY WARM AND LIKELY OFTEN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND...3.) PWATS IN THE TOP TEN PERCENTILE
REGULARLY IN THIS TIME. SPEAKING TO THE LAST POINT...WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH THAT COMES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ENTERING THE SW
U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED INTO THE MIDWEST. SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THAT TRACK AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE IMPULSE...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A
WELL-VERIFYING MODEL BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED. THIS LENDS ITSELF
TO A LOT OF CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT CONVEYS
THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL GET REFINED IN
TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
LAKE BREEZE MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WESTERLY
WINDS TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE LAKE BREEZES INLAND
PENETRATION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE...THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD AND HIGH DEWPOINT
AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE
EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME HIGHER
WINDS.
PERIODS OF FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND
VERY MOIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
SITS OFF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...CLOSER TO HOME
WEAK SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A DRY/HOT FLOW. THE RAP RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING WERE REALLY GOOD WITH THE HIGHS...BETTER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER RUNS. WENT WITH THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
RESULTED IN WARMER HIGHS FOR TODAY.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER UNDER CUTTING HIGHS YESTERDAY...HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
TODAY AND EVEN HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF MANY DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE BEST LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...BUT
CHANCES STILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN WITH
A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS LIKELY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT AND THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THOUGH.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE FRONT WILL HELP TO FIRE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING...AND SHEAR WILL
BE AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE EVENT...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AS WILL THE FRONT...REMOVING THE BOUNDARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS REPEATS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BILLING WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
AT 7K FEET. THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KRC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 99 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 99 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
NEWTON 98 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 97 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 68 94 71 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 100 69 98 69 / 0 0 10 50
GREAT BEND 99 69 97 69 / 10 0 10 50
SALINA 100 69 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
MCPHERSON 99 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 40
COFFEYVILLE 96 68 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 95 69 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 95 68 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 95 69 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
SITS OFF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...CLOSER TO HOME
WEAK SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A DRY/HOT FLOW. THE RAP RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING WERE REALLY GOOD WITH THE HIGHS...BETTER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER RUNS. WENT WITH THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
RESULTED IN WARMER HIGHS FOR TODAY.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER UNDER CUTTING HIGHS YESTERDAY...HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
TODAY AND EVEN HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF MANY DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE BEST LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...BUT
CHANCES STILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN WITH
A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS LIKELY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT AND THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THOUGH.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE FRONT WILL HELP TO FIRE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING...AND SHEAR WILL
BE AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE EVENT...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AS WILL THE FRONT...REMOVING THE BOUNDARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS REPEATS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BILLING WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A GRADUALLY WIND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CAN EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 99 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 99 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
NEWTON 98 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 97 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 68 94 71 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 100 69 98 69 / 0 0 10 50
GREAT BEND 99 69 97 69 / 10 0 10 50
SALINA 100 69 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
MCPHERSON 99 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 40
COFFEYVILLE 96 68 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 95 69 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 95 68 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 95 69 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGGING S ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY HAS GENERATED AN MCS OVER MS/SE LA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. NEW AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED JUST E OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...LIKELY AIDED FROM THE REMNANT OUT...MOVING W
AROUND 15 MPH. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA &
MVFR VSBY/CEILING FROM 19-23Z FOR ARA/LFT...20-24Z FOR AEX...22-02Z
FOR LCH...AND 23-03Z FOR BPT...IF AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THIS EVENING
AS THE NAM12 & HRRR SUGGESTS. LATER THIS EVENING...REMAINING
INSTABILITY MAY KEEP VCSH OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH
SEA BREEZE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD AID IN THE INITIATION
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO COOLED TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN COOLED AIR AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTH AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID AND UPR
LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACRS THE
AREA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
MAINLY NR THE LA TERMINALS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO SE
TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISLTD NR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LT SWLY WINDS. CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS NOTED FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 50H HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR KLCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. REALLY GOOD
MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON THE 09/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH PWAT
OVER 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 70 PERCENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN
GPS-MET INTEGRATED PWAT AND SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT SHOWS
VALUES LOWER AND IN THE 1.8 RANGE...STILL ABOVE THE JUNE NORM. ONE
OTHER NOTE...THE SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT STILL SHOWS A LARGE
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.5 INCHES.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
GRIP AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CUT OFF FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AND RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH MEAN RH IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. ALSO...WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SEA
BREEZE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LOOKS
LIKE TYPICAL DAYTIME HEATING TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY NEAR MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES...SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOWS/ATCHAFALAYA BASIN CONVERGENCE. THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE BEST TIME TO SEE THE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SO DO NOT EXPECT ALOT OF STRONG ACTIVITY...MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF
PULSE TYPE STORMS IF BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN THE LONG TERM...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF OF FLORIDA WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...PUSHING
THIS WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL ALLOW A STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THAT WILL LIKELY TAP
INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FUNNEL
IT UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO BETWEEN
2 AND 2.25 INCHES WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT. THIS TROPICAL LIKE
AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE AIR MASSES...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
THE COASTAL AREA...WITH IT EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PROCESS THEN STARTING OVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EXPECTED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE. THE GFS KEEPS THE WEAKNESS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BUILDING
AND STRENGTHENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
THAT WOULD PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST...WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HELPING TO
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS...THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY
THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW SEAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HELP BUILD
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 91 71 89 / 20 40 20 40
LCH 74 91 74 89 / 30 40 20 40
LFT 73 89 73 88 / 30 50 30 50
BPT 74 92 74 89 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1136 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SWWD INTO W TX AND A WEAK
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS OVER E TX BASED UPON CURRENT
OBS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENCE. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ATTM. FOLLOWING THE HRRR OUTPUT...COULD SEE VCTS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO
COVER THIS WITH VCTS MENTION AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANY TEMPO TSRA
EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE TSRA IS CLOSE THIS MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN AR.
TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TODAY
MAKING THE FRONT MORE DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THIS SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER W TX BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE
AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SE CONUS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NW OF US...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 72 93 72 / 20 10 30 10
MLU 92 71 92 71 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 93 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 91 71 92 71 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 94 72 92 72 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 95 71 92 72 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 95 73 91 72 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME THAT A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP DEVELOPED OVER MN AND FAR NWRN WI THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE IT MOVED WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO LOW AND CIN TOO HIGH FOR
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHOUT MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW MLCAPES
DECREASING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEN INCREASING TO 700-1200J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH STRONG 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND BOTH 0-3KM AND
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO MOVING THROUGH (OR AT LEAST ALONG THE
EDGES) OF THE CWA. WHILE THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
THE HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM-DNG)...AND
EVEN THE LOWER-RES GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO BE ON A REASONABLE TRACK
OF SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
(CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE) AND ANOTHER MOVING ESE THROUGH THE
U.P. PARALLEL TO THE CAPE GRADIENT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED STORM MODE
BEING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS...THINK
THAT DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND
MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
AGAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE TO THE E...SHOULD SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER OVER
THE ERN U.P.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT
NWS JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO HELP STORMS ORGANIZE A ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
UPDRAFTS ARE OCCASIONALLY PULSING UP TO NEAR SEVERE INTENSITY.
MOREOVER...NEARLY OPPOSED PROPAGATION AND CELL MOTIONS ARE RESULTING
IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. OVER
EASTERN MS...THE AIRMASS WAS DEPLETED BY OVERNIGHT EARLY MORNING TSTM
COMPLEX...BUT HAS SINCE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PRETTY INSISTENT ON MOVING THE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BACK INTO THE PINE BELT REGION AS WE GO INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN HWO MUCH STABILIZATION TOOK PLACE THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS A
LITTLE. GOING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WITH COOLING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED. THE GFS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS IN THAT
REGION AS WELL THAT WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THE GFS FORECASTS VERTICAL TOTALS TO APPROACH 27 SUGGESTING THAT A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /EC/
&&
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE AS PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE MOIST FEED WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT A GREATER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR
90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR. WEAK STEERING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...INCREASED RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL
BEGIN DRYING/WARMING THE COLUMN. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO BEGIN LESSENING IN THE EAST AND MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. /26/
&&
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN
CONCERN SCT TSRA THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN 1/2 OF MS
INTO NE LA AND SE AR. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THIS
AREA BEHIND MORNING MCS THAT MOVED S ACROSS AREA...AND ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS
THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY W AND S OF TAF SITES SO HAVE
JUST WENT VCTS AT KHKS AND KJAN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SAT
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF CONDITIONAL TSRA AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING WED
AM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN IN LAST 24 HOURS.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS OVER SE AND HAVE WENT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KHBG. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 89 69 87 / 35 40 19 48
MERIDIAN 68 88 68 86 / 30 42 23 49
VICKSBURG 70 90 70 88 / 44 35 15 40
HATTIESBURG 69 88 70 86 / 30 53 30 56
NATCHEZ 70 88 70 87 / 34 43 22 47
GREENVILLE 71 92 73 89 / 16 17 10 29
GREENWOOD 70 90 71 87 / 17 23 11 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/26/AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHED. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH WINDS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES SHOW 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE CLEAR SKIES
YESTERDAY. HRRR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FASTER MORNING WARM-
UP, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 94 70 95 72 / 10 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0
GAGE OK 92 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 94 70 95 72 / 0 10 0 20
DURANT OK 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE
WITH JUST A QUESTION ON WHETHER IT IS OVERDONE OR WAY OVERDONE. ALSO
SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GOING WESTERLY
RAISES CONVERGENCE QUESTIONS. FOR THE MOMENT WILL PLAN ON KEEPING
COVERAGE LOW BUT NOT TAKING OUT. ALSO...FOR NOW AM KEEPING A SLIGHT
MENTION EAST CENTRAL TO AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET...BUT GIVEN THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER THAN BEFORE
DURING THIS TIME...WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ANYTHING LEFT ASSUMING
THERE IS SOMETHING TO START WITH.
LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITH 60 TO 65 LOWS. FOR WEDNESDAY STILL PLAN ON A FAIRLY SUNNY START
WITH A CLOUD INCREASE STARTING SLOWLY...AND NOT REALLY PICKING UP
STEAM UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OUT WEST...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STARTING LATE AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS THE EXPECTED WET
SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 80
TO 85 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LIKELY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY BY LATER NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE
EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET..WILL START TO GET A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD 06Z...
AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF I-90 LATE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SETTLES IN A 400-800 J/KG WHICH COULD SUGGEST A
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE NIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
THURSDAY PERIOD APPEARS SECONDARY TO RAINFALL THREAT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY LATER
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. TRACK OF LEVEL WAVE AND LOCATION
OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS/LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HPC IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES HAS UPDATED TO
PLACE MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI...AND EVEN A MODERATE
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND SPENCER/STORM LAKE/IDA GROVE.
WITH AS MUCH IMPACT AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
EVENTUAL SET UP OF PREFERRED PRECIPITATION LOCATION ON THURSDAY...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS AND DECIDED NOT TO YET ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AT THIS TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERSITY IN
SOLUTIONS OF WHERE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL OCCUR...
WITH NUMEROUS AREA HAVING SOME DEGREE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
LATELY...AND CONSISTENCY OF A REGIONAL HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE...
WOULD BELIEVE A WATCH WOULD BE ALMOST CERTAIN WITH THE NEXT MAIN
FORECAST PACKAGE.
THERE SHOULD BE A TIME WHERE THINGS DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MEAN RIDGING TAKES A WEAK GRIP ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER IN EXITING SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW SYSTEM EXITS
REQUIRED MAINTAINING A MEAGER CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FLOW TRENDS AGAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AND ANOTHER BROAD WAVE CREEPING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE OF
GREAT CONCERN...SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS FLATTENING OF RIDGE BY
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BOTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 10/18Z. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA 21Z-02Z MAY PRODUCE VERY
BRIEF AND LOCAL LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
BROAD NW FLOW ACROSS WRN CNDA/NRN PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST CROSSING THE SASKATCHEWAN
PROVINCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS CROSSING
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN MT AND APPROACHING NW ND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ND TODAY AND INTO NW SD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MODELS TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE...NOW SUGGESTING
CNTRL SD REACHING WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS
SCNTRL SD HITTING 100. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP MAY BREAK. OTHERWISE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TO CNTRL SD WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NE WY/FAR WRN SD. WITH HIGHER THETA E ACROSS
THE AREAS...THIS WILL BE BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPROACH FROM THE SW. THE GFS IS HAS
THE MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS
COMPLETELY DRY. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SL CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED 700/850MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER AIR FORCING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA WED...AND INCREASING
COVERAGE/QPF WED NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW SD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH 700MB LOW
CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WDSPRD
TSRA LATE WED INTO THU. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH NEXT APPROACHING TROF. WARM
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SLOW WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
ISOLATED TSTM OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN COULD BRING LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MRNG MAINLY FROM NERN WY INTO NWRN SD. WHILE MOST CIGS
WITH THIS PCPN WILL BE VFR...SOME LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WILL BE FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND GRADUAL WINDSHIFT.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF STIES...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY DWINDLE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS INVOF OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW THAT ANY ONE TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED SO WILL ONLY CARRY
VCTS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...STORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
BAIN
&&
.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MOISTURE IS RATHER THIN THOUGH AS MCKINNEY AND GREENVILLE HAVE
ALREADY MIXED OUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. FAVORED AREA FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ACROSS THE METROPLEX
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO ADJUST
THE 20 POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST CU FIELD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 10 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 20 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 84 DEGREES. AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE TOWARD SE TX FROM THE NE LATER THIS AFTN. THE NCEP 4 KM WRF
IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE VORT MAX AS IT
MOVES SW. THE RAP IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR. ADDED
VCSH FOR IAH TAF AND TSRA MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IS THE 4 KM
WRF IS CORRECT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER QUIET TODAY YET THEY
ALL SHOW THE VORT APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIFFLUENT SO AM LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WRF/RAP.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDS AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING NW TO SE ORIENTED UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NE TEXAS ON EASTERN FLANK OF
UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ARE TWO
POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING COVERAGE OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT SHOULD
COVER IT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. PWAT FROM CRP
AND FWD MORNING SOUNDING JUST 1.3 INCHES...SHV MORE LIKE 1.6
INCHES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...GOING WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC START. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES IS STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY
RISING MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORMATION STAGES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
EDGE INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOO. 42
MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG FETCH
STRETCHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO INCREASING
SEASON AND ADVISORIES/CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PARTS OF
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI-SUN. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 92 73 91 / 20 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 74 92 74 92 / 30 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 79 89 80 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE INCLUDE TWO OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WAVE...EXTENDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TO PIERRE SD. SO FAR
THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 925MB TEMPS WARMING TO NOW IN THE 23C NEAR I-
39 TO AROUND 27C NEAR I-35 PER ACARS SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPORTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP DRY AIRMASS IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE GREATLY REDUCING CAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST REDUCING DYNAMIC
FORCING...IS WHY CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ON THE FRONT.
LASTLY...WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...A MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES WERE
PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UTAH AND ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDES
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THESE ARE PROGGED TO TAKE AIM AT
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z TUSCON
SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO HEADS SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MN WILL FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM TRACKING ACROSS
TAYLOR COUNTY BEING CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT. KEPT SOME 15-30
PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THE EVENING...HIGHEST NORTHWEST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...PLUS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS. PLENTY
OF SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DEFINITELY
COOLER TOMORROW...18-20C AT 18Z...BUT THESE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS...WARMEST
SOUTH. THAT DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.75 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX PRETTY WELL AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A NUMBER OF FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALLER 100 MILE
BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL REGION BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20.
1. DPVA FROM SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON
BRINGING THE COLLECTIVE OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
2. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. NOT ONLY DO THE SHORTWAVES BRING THE DEEPER
PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
PROPEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY...REACHING 1.5 - 2 INCHES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF IA. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DOES NOT LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.
3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB
HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK.
5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION
6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD.
A VARIETY OF MODEL QPFS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EASILY LIKELY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT
SMALLER BAND. WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS...FLOODING OF
RIVERS IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH URBAN AND POSSIBLY AREAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THAT LOCATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE 09.00Z
CIPS ANALOGS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING NORTHERN IOWA...THE 09.12Z NAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO I-90...THE 09.12Z ECMWF ALONG I-90 TO GREEN
BAY...AND THE 09.12Z CANADIAN/GFS JUST NORTH OF I-90.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP...AND
THE EVENT STILL BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PERIOD THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY TO NOW DRY IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. STILL MAINTAINED SOME
20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE EVENT THE SHORTWAVES
PULL OUT SLOWER LIKE THE 09.12Z CANADIAN. AFTER SATURDAY AND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE LITTER THE FORECAST. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME DRY
PERIODS...BUT TIMING THAT LOOKS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC AS WE SIT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S..
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 09.00Z/12Z ECMWF OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
TAME. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS THU/FRI...WE DEFINITELY DO NOT THE ECMWF
RAIN. BEING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A GENERALLY DRY...QUIET VFR PERIOD EXPECTED...EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WARM...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH A MDT
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND MOST OF THE FORCING/LIFT WITH IT
LOOKS TO PASS NORTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT 00Z THE
FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A KDLH-KFSD LINE.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU KRST AROUND 06Z AND KLSE AROUND 08Z. BY
THAT TIME ANY SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF/ALONG IT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. ONLY CARRIED A VCSH AT KRST IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED AS A WEAK
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY 8-12KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO
5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IS LOOKING TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20 IN OUR REGION BETWEEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
USING THIS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS GAUGES ON ANY RIVER EXCEPT
THE MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH MODERATE OR MAJOR STAGE. THE MISSISSIPPI
COULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO MINOR. AREAL AND URBAN FLOODING WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY SHOULD THE BAND SET UP OVER LA CROSSE OR
AUSTIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL
MAY FALL IN 3 HOURS ACCORDING TO HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ