Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

142 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
WEAKEN WITH AN INLAND WARMING TREND AND GRADUALLY SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER. FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE COULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SLOW COOLING AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MORE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AT WEEKS END.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SOME BUILDING CUMULUS OVER THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE LATEST HRRR DID A GOOD JOB SHOWING THOSE VENTURA COUNTY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT DOES NOT INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY FOR OUR
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEITHER DOES ANY OF THE OTHER HI-
RES MODELS. USING MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND WRF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO DOES NOT INDICATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TODAY.

SOME WARMING IS OCCURRING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT REPLACING IT. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH
THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE HIGHER PRESSURE
ALOFT...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUNDAY...AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN DEPTH...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS.

FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST OF POINT CONCEPTION WHICH WILL HELP CHURN SOME REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH MORE OF THE MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.3 TO NEAR
1.7 INCHES IN OUR AREA. THE END OF THE NAM12 RUN SHOWS SOME 850-300
MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ENTERING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MOISTURE AROUND 50-300 J/KG...AND ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK
GREAT...THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE...VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE
COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION...IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR REGION...IT HAS
TRENDED WEST WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME...BRINGING MORE INTO OUR AREA
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE DECLINE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THEN DEVELOPS INTO AN ELONGATED WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL.

.AVIATION...
062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY SCT/BKN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 21Z WITH BASES
MOSTLY 3000-3500 FT MSL. AREAS OF BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FT
MSL...SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VIS WILL BE BELOW 3
MI IN THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM.

MTNS/DESERTS...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 10000
FT MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
AND PEAK MONDAY AT 3 FT/16-18 SECONDS. THIS WILL GENERATE ELEVATED
SURF ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...

STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GOOD INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR. IT PUSHED IN
FROM IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SIERRA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ELKO COUNTY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM TO 11PM THIS
EVENING. WE BUMPED UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECONDARY WAVE.

THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORM CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.LARGE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH STORMS HAVING A FAIRLY QUICK
STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY FROM THE NNE TO SSW DIRECTION FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF MULTIPLE
CELLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING GOOD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 5PM AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES WEST OF THE SIERRA.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES DOWN ON THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. WARMING ALOFT WILL CAP ANY
CONVECTION THAT STARTS TO GET GOING. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, SO
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVED TO MEDIUM THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
INCREASED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AND SOUTHERN NV. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY,
BUT COULD END UP EVEN COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER OR
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS SET UP.

FOR THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
MOSTLY NEAR THE SIERRA. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV, DRIER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO BUILD IN, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.

FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE BUILDING INTO CA-NV WILL
CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT, BUT BY SATURDAY
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BECOME TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. MJD

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21-01Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS THRU THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION AND THE MAIN TERMINALS AS DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR KMMH WHERE ISOLD
CB TOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. MJD

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

109 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS THIS EVENING OF THE VALLEY. POSSIBLE
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE IN
THE VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED MORE VALLEY AREAS WITH SOME MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY
MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROGGED WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW DAYS, ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTORM INTO THE VALLEY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AS RIDGING RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY WITH 70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY PM
ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL MVFR CIGS. A SMALL CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD REACH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS
EXCEPT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

909 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING IN THE VALLEY. MAINLY FROM AROUND
OROVILLE SOUTHWARD. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO
THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 90S
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO THE 70S AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO INDICATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY UNDER THIS WEAK THROUGH. EVEN WITH
TROUGH OVERHEAD...AIRMASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH TO BRING IN
DAYTIMES HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY SO ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE SIERRA ONLY WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS WARMING A BIT MORE.
MODELS VARY ON DETAILS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ALL SHOW SOME SORT
OF WEAK RIDGING AND ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PRECLUDE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 10 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. LCL COASTAL STRATUS IN THE DELTA THROUGH 17Z. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

959 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDS AND RAISE POPS SATURDAY. SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND LOCALLY ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY, WE RAISED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NV. WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE GOOD, THE STRENGTH OF STORMS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW QUICK
CONVECTION FIRES. IF WE CAN GET 4-5 HOURS OF HEATING, THEN STORMS
WOULD BE STRONGER. HOHMANN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

A QUICK LOOK AT SATURDAY SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS HAD BEEN
UNDERPLAYING THIS POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z NAM SHOWED IT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AND CONSIDER ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM
WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER
CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.

IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS
EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED.

YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED
AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED
1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.
MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS
AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL
ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY
SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA.
TOLBY

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE
WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST
CONVECTION.

FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR
AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO
THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MJD

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS.

WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1133 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS
ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED
CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET
THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY
TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY.
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.

CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES.

LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY...
PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE
NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY
DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.

.MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER
MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID
WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW--

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAINFALL
WHICH OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCOS TOWARDS MORNING...HOWEVER
PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SO
DO NOT HAVE THIS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KALS MAY SEE
SOME SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT IN THE
MORNING...THEN ALL THREE TAF SITES STAND A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR KCOS
AND KPUB AS THUNDERSTORMS ROLL OFF TO THE EAST. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.

OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.

BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
EASTERN UT THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO SW CO FROM NEW MEXICO BY ABOUT 09Z. THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
EVERY AIRPORT...AND TAF SITES WILL SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
TO ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED AND HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.

CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.

SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...EH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

728 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY...THE BACK END OF THE -SHRA
BAND MOVING THROUGH SE MA MARKS THE COLD FRONT BASED ON A MIX OF
OBS/MSAS DATA. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DUE TO
STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF -SHRA IN WRN MA/CT IS
REMNANT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT IT TOO DRIES AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE. THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM
NW-SE THROUGH THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EARLY CLOUD MAY
LIMIT TEMPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK N-NE FLOW AND
REMNANTS OF A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COASTAL LOCATIONS
LIKELY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...WITH AREAS INLAND MAKE
ANOTHER RUN AT THE 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS
SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT CERTAIN.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR
BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 60.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB
FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO
GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER
40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE
UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE
WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
06.00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL THINKING FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. INITIAL NRN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ABOUT 48 HRS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FORCED RIDGE AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...MAINLY DUE TO IT/S BEING EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN JET. THE SFC REFLECTION...A COLD FRONT...COULD PARALLEL THE
FLOW ALOFT AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS ON
BOTH THE ECENS/GEFS SIDE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING NOW FOR THE MIDDLE PERIOD...BUT
ERR TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND THE FACT THE
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING E OF THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN
REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SFC DWPTS BEGIN TO
RISE. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MON AND TUE...
UPPER LVL DEEPENING WAVE WILL BE MOVING E FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC...PUSHING THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
JET INTO PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS US UP FOR
LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
/NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ PROVIDE THE REST OF THE SUPPORT. SO...WITH A WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH LATE MON...EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT. FEEL IT WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE DAY THANKS TO THE
MOISTURE FLUX BEING TOP-DOWN PRIMARILY...SO THE LOW LVL DRY AIR
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON
TUE...YIELDING YET ANOTHER ROUND FOR SHOWERS. THE ONE QUESTION
THAT REMAINS IS INSTABILITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING ALONG THE SRN
TIER. STILL K-VALUES REACH OVER 30 /LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF MOISTURE/
AND SOME MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF 500J/KG SFC CAPE ON
TUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
POTENTIAL BREAK WHICH MAY YIELD BETTER SFC HEATING. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF TS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE...BUT LIMIT THE
WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING.

WED AND WED NIGHT...
RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE..AND WHILE THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...IT/S LIKELY SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THU OR FRI WILL YIELD -SHRA INITIALLY...BUT THEN IT
MAY STALL IS IT PARALLELS THE MEAN JET DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS IS
ALONG THE RIM OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE...SO WARM TEMPS ARE
LIKELY...BUT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVE COULD DEVELOP PERIODS OF
WET/UNSTABLE WX AT TIMES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EXACT
FRONT PLACEMENT IS RESOLVED...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW TIMING OR HOW
MUCH RAIN WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR ALONG E MA WITH VFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. THE
GRADUAL TREND FROM 12Z-15Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
ACK...WHICH WILL STAY MVFR LONGER. A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DONE EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 14Z. TREND WILL
BE TOWARD VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS MAINLY N-NE...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT
LATER IN THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON THE E COAST ESPECIALLY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT NEAR S COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH NIGHT A SERIES OF FRONTS EACH DAY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR WILL
DOMINATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S.

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BUILDING
SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE 5-6FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUE...BUT IT MAY TAKE MORE
TIME FOR THE SEAS TO FULLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOG/RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

506 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM NRN NJ TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ACTING ON ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG
PER HRRR KEWR SOUNDING. THE BAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NYC
METRO...SW CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NW AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY BECOMING SFC-BASED IN THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS.

COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS THE WEAK FRONT WASHES
OUT OVER THIS AREA...LEAVING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
BEHIND. H8 COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STILL BE TO THE NW...WITH AXIS OF
HIGHER H8 DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH ONE LAST WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GUSTY N WIND
INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK E-SE COASTAL SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING LATE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH 3
FT SE SWELLS AFFECTING THE SHORELINE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INVOF NYC AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
SUBSIDENCE...LOWER H8-10 THICKNESSES AND THEN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS
A FEW DEG COOLER...MOSTLY 70-75...BUT WITH UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL
AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM
NYC EAST ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA...WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z...WEAKENING AS IT
MOVE FARTHER EAST. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z
AND 14Z WITH WEAK FRONT. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BTWN 11Z AND 14Z. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 13Z TO
15Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE SEA BREEZE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING
KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW
GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
N FLOW TODAY MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...INCOMING SWELLS MAY BUILD
OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OUT EAST FOR A TIME TOWARD EVENING.
SCA NOT ISSUED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MEETING CRITERIA...AND HAVE
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT.

NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS WILL COME MON-TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ON ALL WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES
AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

431 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY
WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TSTM
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS
INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE
SEA BREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

350 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS
SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT CERTAIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WED AND WED NIGHT...
RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LINGERING IFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS AS THE FRONT
CAME ACROSS NEW YORK SHOWED MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CLEARING
AND DRIER WEATHER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GUST TO 25
KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OR TREND THAT WAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

328 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER
40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE
UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT FOR A COMPROMISE AMONGST THE
ECMWF/GFS TO BE USED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS FAVORED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS SO WILL
FOCUS ON THE ECMWF WHERE DIFFERENCES ARISE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO
POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
SO NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT THE THUNDER CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE REGION.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING QUIET...SEASONABLE WEATHER.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER RETURNS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AGAIN.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

151 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
THEN OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER THROUGH THIS MORNING. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING.

LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH RH VALUES
THOUGH WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS.

A GUSTY NLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LATE DAY E/SE
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NE FLOW.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

MET MOS IS WARMER ON SAT AS THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING.
USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA
COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC
EAST ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS
INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE
SEABREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GIVES TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK.
NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SAT WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM THE
ISSUANCE OF SCA ON SAT. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING N FLOW.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD MONDAY
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVE
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

957 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A LITTLE MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW MAXIMIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY AND MOVING INLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INTERESTINGLY, THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF
THIS APPROACH, KEEPING ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WOULD SEEM AT THIS POINT THAT A
LESS ACTIVE SOLUTION WOULD BE APPROPRIATE, HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER APALACHEE BAY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
STORMS FIRING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
09-10Z WHEN PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TLH/VLD.
BY 13Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT A LITTLE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS GROUPS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION [326 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEK, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT
WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. MONDAY, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SEA-BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF. TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
WILL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT, MAKING FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THAT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG IN OUR AREA,
SO STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAT DAY WITH
DOWNBURSTS OF DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AN EXTENSION OF THE +PV ANOMALY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL SIT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND
HANGING IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTH FLORIDA ZONES THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO AT 40-50%. OUR MORE TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE PATTERN WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO 20-40%.

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THOUGH
WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 LATE IN THE WEEK.
WAVES WILL STAY AROUND 1-2 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK, INCREASING OVER
OUR WESTERN WATERS TO 2-3 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4-
5 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED SWELL FROM FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THUS HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. INCREASING MOISTURE BY TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.HYDROLOGY...
DESPITE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, COVERAGE WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED, KEEPING THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
1.25" OR LESS. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ON OUR AREA
RIVERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE 71 92 71 91 72 / 20 30 10 30 30
PANAMA CITY 73 87 75 86 74 / 20 30 10 30 30
DOTHAN 70 92 71 89 71 / 10 40 30 40 30
ALBANY 71 92 71 91 71 / 10 30 30 40 30
VALDOSTA 69 93 71 92 71 / 10 20 10 40 30
CROSS CITY 69 91 71 91 71 / 20 20 20 30 20
APALACHICOLA 75 88 74 88 75 / 40 20 10 20 20

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

915 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE AROUND 1.65 INCHES AND 1.52 INCHES AT TAMPA. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL 250 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE SW FL COAST WITH THE MID LVL
TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE FL EAST COAST. MID LVL STEERING FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW-NNW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING AT THE SFC WILL VEER TO THE NE-E INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND NCEP 4KM WRF RUN FOR SPC
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE
CSTL COUNTIES AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 20-30 PCT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST BREEZE MAINLY WEST OF I-95 SOUTH
OF THE CAPE. WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HIGHS MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR
THE INTERIOR. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT EAST
CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 14Z. OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS
ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
INLAND 14Z-17Z. ISOLD TSRA JUST WEST OF COASTAL TAF SITES FROM KMLB
SOUTHWARDS 15Z-18Z...BECOMING SCT OVER INTERIOR AFTER 18Z.

.MARINE...LIGHT NW-N FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE-E THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT NEARSHORE TO 2-3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 70 85 73 / 20 10 20 10
MCO 91 71 90 73 / 40 20 30 10
MLB 88 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 88 70 86 74 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 91 73 91 73 / 40 30 40 10
SFB 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 30 10
ORL 90 72 90 74 / 40 20 30 10
FPR 87 69 86 72 / 20 20 20 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

VOLKMER/BRAGAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

926 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

STORMS ARE VINALLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. WILL BE WORKING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AND
TO REMOVE PARTS OF THE WATCH. UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING BUT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG A HENRY...TO GALESBURG...TO
FORT MADISON IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE/SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS AS THEY TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...THEN EXITING INTO INDIANA BY
AROUND 01Z. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. BY THAT
POINT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. DESPITE THIS...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.50 TO 1.75. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MONTHLY AND YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THINK WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
INSTEAD HIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HARD IN THE HWO...ZONE FORECAST...AND
ESF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT
LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN AS
EVERYTHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE REGION FOR WE AND WED NIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IF THERE IS ANY PCPN THEN IT
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
GRIDS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE WORDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OF THUR AND
THUR NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SITES TONIGHT. PIA
AND BMI WILL SEE PREDOMINATE STORMS FOR QUITE A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THINK THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THEN SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SPI/DEC/CMI SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE STORMS IN THE
NEXT 1-2HRS WITH JUST VCTS FOR WHILE AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR ABOUT
4HRS DURING THE LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AND
THEN WESTERLY AFTER THE NEXT WAVE COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN TOMORROW.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

654 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

305 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE
SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND
FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF GCK AND HYS SO
HAVE DECIDE NOT TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 64 83 / 10 20 50 20
GCK 65 91 63 82 / 20 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 62 82 / 20 30 50 30
LBL 66 93 64 84 / 10 30 50 30
HYS 66 89 62 83 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 67 87 / 0 10 50 40

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

136 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL CENTER
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING. TWO STORM SYSTEMS WITH
NOTABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING
AND ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL COME OUT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. A 60-80 KNOT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
LIFT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE DECENT SIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH WOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS. A LARGE COLD POOL
TIED TO THIS WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PUSH IT
QUICKLY SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 63 TO 66F LIKELY,
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MODEL. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS OUR
REGION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS, THOUGH, REGARDING MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE 500-700MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA QUICKER
THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM, WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT-
INDUCED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WOULD BE CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA. THE POP
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE
GLOBAL MODEL DISCREPANCY.

EVENTUALLY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET AROUND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN ACROSS
COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
PERSIST VERY LONG, THOUGH, WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AGAIN
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DECENT POLAR FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, BUT THE TIMING IS AN ISSUE (WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED FOR A DAY+6 FORECAST). NEVERTHELESS, ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far
northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to
produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty
persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly
approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on
one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per
hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced
flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in
northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through
9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east
with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields
aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is
steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong
enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts
have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent
along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular
to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current
complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly
high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to
occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and
flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease
in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions
through the day.

As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by
afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon
and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However,
expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the
forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected
MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may
spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast
soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight
hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more
strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the
case though based on recent model performance and have maintained
thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with
recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and
flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging
wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area
on the southern flank.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kt. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.

Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue
to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern
half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and
the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that
area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western
U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping
to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at
least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops
over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains,
helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area
and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is
model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary,
ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit
more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away
point for this system is that it will bring another round of
thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional
heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued
flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady
conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

There remains little if any large scale forcing for convection with
the mid level ridge axis overhead. Will need to watch the outflow
boundary around KMHK for an isolated storm or two as peek heating
and localized convergence possibly get a storm to go. Otherwise
anticipate any organized convection to remain north overnight with
the low level jet nosing into eastern NEB and western IA. Models
continue to prog the low level jet strength around 40KT.
Therefore have maintained a mention of LLWS in the forecast. Not
sure the nocturnal inversion will be terribly strong as MOS
guidance keeps surface winds around 10KT, but the chance for LLWS
is there. Think VFR conditions should prevail.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

623 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

An outflow from thunderstorms near/north of TAF sites will cause
winds to be initially from the north to northeast...with a gradual
turn out of the southeast by late morning. TS will be very close
to TOP and FOE so have a VCTS but can not rule out a stray storm
developing overhead so will monitor closely. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions through the TAF with LLWS conditions developing after
05Z as a southwesterly low level jet increases to 45-50 kts.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

427 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the taf period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible early
this morning. Confidence on the coverage is low therefore went
with vicinity for now. There might be brief periods of MVFR/IFR if
storms track over the airport.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

220 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
GENERALLY LED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SINCE A FEW VALLEY
LOCATIONS WERE NEAR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONVECTION
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIMINISHED LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA NEAR CRW AND IN
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE WV COALFIELDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL
INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE ATTM. OUTSIDE OF THIS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN SEVERAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SMALL AND FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IT BECOMING DENSE WITH SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS WORKING OVERHEAD AND THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SOME MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
RAIN SHOWERS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED.
PATCHY FOG IS STILL ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL BE JUST AS
UNPREDICTABLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

RAN THE ESTF DATA LOAD AND BLEND TOO TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS DATA
INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS. THE FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD THUS
FAR THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR DATA
TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP IN OUR AREA OR
MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IF NO SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT...MAY UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
REMOVE RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ALTOGETHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

VISIBLE SAT SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OF CU RIDING ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CU FIELD AND HAVE GENERALLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER TRACKING SLOWLY SE. THEREFORE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE
EVENING...AND THEREFORE SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND
WEAKEN. THE BETTER LIFT AND ENERGY WILL BE SPLIT WITH SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST AND WAVE TO THE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THIS HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WITH
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OUT OF
THIS EVENT.

OVERNIGHT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT DECENT INVERSION SO
DID OPT TO LEAN TOWARD SOME MAINLY VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER AREAS THAT
DO MANAGE TO GET SOME SHOWERS WOULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME PATCHY FOG. SATURDAY EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE
HINTS AT BETTER CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE BRIEF NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW MORE SPOTS STAYING CLOSE TO
80 SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
UNDER INVERSION. EXPECTING LOWS TO GENERALLY DROP OFF INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HANG UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR
OVERHEAD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY APPEARS LIKE A NICE DAY.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW
THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
EAST KENTUCKY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND WIND FIELDS SUPPORT A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING. THE FRONT
ITSELF ONLY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING A THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS
A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CUTS
OFF AND SETTLES IN TO OUR WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING BACK NORTH SO WAS NOT ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR THE BULK
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG FORMATION BETWEEN
NOW AND DAWN. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS TO MVFR OR IFR
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT SME AND
GUIDANCE TAKING VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS...CONTINUED TO FORECAST VIS
BELOW SME MINS FROM 10Z TO 12Z. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...ANY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT COULD SEE VIS OR CIGS DOWN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

729 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.

TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.

TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON
EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON
EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE GENERATING A ROUGHLY 995MB LOW THAT
SHOULD MOVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE FINAL TRACK WILL
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION. A STOUT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BRING 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20C PER THE NAM AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING COOLER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF TO REACH OR EXCEED 80F TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT
CAPE LEVELS EXCEEDING 1000J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CAP TO
OVERCOME...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO JUST
THAT. MODELS DO PICK UP ON THIS WITH THE NAM...GEM...GFS AND ECMWF
ALL SHOWING MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF QPF OUT AHEAD OF A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AHEAD AND ALONG THE SHORTWAVE WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 40-50KTS
AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A
TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/CHANCES OF STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG IF THEY DO FORM AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS GREATER.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES LATER TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT AS MODELS
INDICATE A QUICK HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ALONG THE CAPE
GRADIENT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA. THREAT WILL
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT AND A VERY LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL THREAT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ARE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT IS GOOD. WITH THE STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED QUICK
HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEICHE
ACTIVITY.

WED LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH SKIES OVERALL CLEARING.

THU ALSO LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH ENHANCED QPF POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE
BLANCA IS TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE FRONT AND THE SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS QUITE LOW AND OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SUN...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MON. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALF WL BRING DRY WX TNGT...LINGERING LLVL
MSTR DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS SOME OF THE TIME. EXPECT THE WORST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNGT AT CMX DUE TO LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AT THAT SITE OFF
THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP. DAYTIME HEATING ON MON WL ALLOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF UPR DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH THE SURFACE HEATING WL RESULT IN INSTABILITY -SHRA...WHICH WL BE
MOST LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TS MAINLY AT THESE
TWO SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS LIKELY TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES BY LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

629 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

Primary concern for tonight will be on severe weather. Currently
anticipate a shortwave near STJ travelling ENE to help initiate a
corridor of strong to severe storms near the IA/MO border. As the
synoptic cold front slides slowly south and eastward...additional
development should occur along/ahead of it by this evening.
Certainly ample instability (SBCAPE aoa 3000 J/kg) which compensates
for the more marginal deep-layer shear values (~20-25 knots). Best
odds of more widespread strong/severe storms continues to be across
portions of northeast MO...west-central IL where best combination of
forcing for ascent...instability...and shear will be collocated.
Multicells with possible bowing segments will likely occur with
damaging winds the primary threat. Large hail will also be
possible...particularly with any cells that stay discrete and gain
the ability to rotate. As we head deeper into the
evening...instability will wane a bit so a bit lesser of a threat
for severe weather roughly from I-70 and south. Heavy rain also is a
possible threat with any training convection which is possible as
flow becomes more and more parallel to baroclinic zone. Behind the
effective frontal boundary...also expecting widespread shra w/
embedded thunder to affect the CWA through the late night hours.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

(Monday)

Models show decent lift thru the column at 12z from near what should
be the low level frontal zone still expected to be just north and
west of STL metro but this will sweep thru much of the CWA by
midday. Prefer at or above higher MET MOS PoPs for most areas
because of this, but it also looks like the further south expected
position of the front Monday afternoon will limit the area where
re-development of TSRA can occur. Trimmed this area a bit and
limited mainly to the far southern counties just south of KFAM.
Still believe there will at least be a marginal threat for severe
with combo of moderately unstable air and decent bulk shear, but the
window of opportunity will be small spatially and temporally for a
short period of the afternoon in parts of southeast MO.

Despite being behind the cold front for most of the day, should
still see a warm day with mid-upper 80s for maxes expected, save in
parts of southeast MO where more persistent cloud and better rain
chances will limit their warmup.

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Quiet period expected with NW flow aloft, with reduced moisture
thru the column and lack of any fronts or clear upper level
disturbances until late Wednesday. Very warm temps expected, with
maxes each day in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

(Thursday - Next Sunday)

SW flow aloft pattern resumes, bringing back occasional upper level
disturbances, moisture increasing thru the column, and a surface
frontal boundary lingering. This will result in above climo PoPs
thru much of this period, meaning persistent 30% chances and higher.
Temps look to be at least seasonably warm if not remaining above
average thru the period.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

Focus continues to be on timing of thunderstorms and severity
through this evening. Once again have delayed onset of storms
another 1-2 hours per latest radar imagery and HRRR guidance. Band
of convection has very slowly moved southward late this afternoon
with individual elements predominantly travelling east or even
a bit northeast. Have timing of onset around 0100 UTC at
KUIN...0400 UTC at KCOU...and 0500-0600 at metro TAF sites. Storms
may be strong to severe...particularly for KUIN early this
evening. Predominant threats would be damaging winds and large
hail. Still also expecting some shra with embedded thunder behind
convective line as secondary shortwave rotates down the base of
the amplifying trough. Quieter weather with winds veering to the
northwest behind the cold front is anticipated by late Monday
morning along with scattering out of the cloud deck.

Specifics for KSTL:

Focus continues to be on timing of thunderstorms and severity
through this evening. Once again have delayed onset of storms
another hour per latest radar imagery and HRRR guidance. Band
of convection has very slowly moved southward late this afternoon
with individual elements predominantly travelling east or even
a bit northeast. Have timing of onset at Lambert Field around 0500 UTC.
A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and small
hail possible. Still also expecting some shra with embedded thunder behind
convective line as secondary shortwave rotates down the base of
the amplifying trough through about 1300 UTC Monday morning. Quieter
weather with winds veering to the northwest behind the cold front
is anticipated by late Monday morning along with scattering out of
the cloud deck.

Gosselin

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning.
Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will
keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two
warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper
80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and
tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances
will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest
day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the
upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No
precip is expected during the day on Sunday.

A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri
into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south
late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas
in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging
wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be
best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or
isolated severe storm.

The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the
Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up.
This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the
middle of the week especially across the southern half of the
Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June
next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week
with another chance of widespread showers and storms.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. The
remains of a weak front will help produce some isolated
showers/thunderstorms early in the taf period but expected coverage
doesn`t warrant much attention at the fcst sites at this point. A
cold front extending from IA into central KS by late in the taf
period will increase sw winds over the area.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

710 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

After some patchy morning fog pilots can expect VFR conditions at
area terminals today. A few thunderstorms may develop during the
heat of the day but the coverage will be low. Surface winds will
be light through the period.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

341 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015

...Feeling More Summer Like and Humid This Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

Convection has shifted south of the area late this evening and not
expecting additional convection through the forecast period as
ridge builds more into the region. Light surface winds and very
moist boundary layer will likely lead to some fog overnight. Have
dropped down into MVFR conditions with TAFS overnight and threw in
a tempo group with some LIFR ceilings at SGF for a few hours
towards morning. Should generally see quickly improving conditions
on Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area
early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu
fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for
what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the
s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little
fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over
the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg
with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear
look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave
expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some
strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm
clusters are a possibility through mid evening.

With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and
shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall
chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front"
is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure
over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least
focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday
morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an
uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a
southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be
to the north.

Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with
progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates
and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse
type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall
chances will be fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid
south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief
time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try
to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level
capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday.

The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens
out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over
southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near
or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also
indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the
mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances
for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks
fairly quiet.

On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a
shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the
southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant
moisture progged to be in place.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

917 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER NORTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS MT...WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. PV REMAINS DRAPED ALONG A LVM-GDV LINE...AND
BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ON LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO POP UP BY LATE MORNING IN AREAS SUCH AS BILLINGS AND
MILES CITY. OTHERWISE AS MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER...WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE
WILL NOT SEE THE HEAVY RAINERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

HAVE TWEAKED MORNING POPS AND SKY AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLD TS
FROM 15-18Z. HIGHS TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCED VERY HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT
FOR POTENTIAL LINGERING FLOODING.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LINGERED WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
EXPECTED. STILL SOME GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS IN THE EAST AND EVEN
DOWN AROUND FORT SMITH AS OF 230 AM THIS MORNING. MAIN SHORT WAVE
ENERGY FROM NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND WE ALSO
HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING ABOUT. THEREFORE...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ODD DUCK SHOWERS HERE AND THERE THIS MORNING. WE
STILL EXPECT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH TODAY WHICH IS CONFIRMED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SO
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TAPERED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AND ISOLATED IN NATURE.

TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

HYDRO NOTES...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES GOING
UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AT 12Z /6AM/ THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SATURATED AND FLOODED AREAS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS A DRY MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR
90F IN PLACES. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015.
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS...SO MAINLY
JUST A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS TURN MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN AS
TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. BACKING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO TAP BACK INTO SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH THE ADDITION OF MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
THINGS LOOK DRIER AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED...WITH THE SKIES OPENING UP AT KLVM...KBIL...AND KSHR.
EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION. SINGER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 053/080 057/088 060/083 058/077 056/074 053/077
2/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 22/T
LVM 075 048/080 051/086 053/084 054/076 052/072 048/077
3/T 21/U 00/U 02/T 35/T 53/T 22/T
HDN 078 051/082 053/089 057/086 055/079 055/075 053/079
3/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 22/T
MLS 079 054/083 058/089 060/084 058/077 056/074 053/076
2/T 00/U 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 21/B
4BQ 075 053/080 055/085 058/083 057/077 056/073 051/074
3/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 21/B
BHK 077 051/082 053/086 057/082 053/074 052/071 048/072
2/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 43/T 21/B
SHR 071 048/076 049/084 052/082 053/077 054/070 049/073
5/T 22/T 00/U 01/B 35/T 53/T 32/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

114 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MCS FROM THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS
LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95
KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA.
THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM
PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST
EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN)
PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS.

TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z
HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY
DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM.
IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS.

ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY
70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S
NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

AT 18Z LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSOURI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO THE
ROUGH LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF FORECAST AREA EXPECT VFR AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION INITIATES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE BROUGHT THUNDER INTO ALL
THREE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IF
STORMS FIRE EARLIER. AFTER 12Z FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY
COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED
ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS
SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY
SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO
1.7 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT.
INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY
83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA
IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY
OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE
5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT
BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY
AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL
MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT
SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD
BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS
SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH
SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO
1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH
STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...
NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY
LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH
RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET.

AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW DUE
TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST MADE AS
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...BKN MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM KOGA NORTHWARD TO NEAR KVTN AND KONL. CIGS WILL
RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TS
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

731 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO
CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT KOMA BTWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AT KOMA AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH KOFK AFTER 0700Z.
THREAT OF HAIL AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS...BUT PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL
WILL BE AT KOMA AND KOFK.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

RADAR AND THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS AZ WILL CROSS COLO AND SET OFF CONVECTION ACROSS ERN COLO
THIS AFTN. THE MODEL SHOWS TSTMS WOULD REACH SWRN NEB AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS
WRN/NCNTL NEB AOA 20Z-22Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR 16Z-18Z.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA YIELDS AROUND 09-12Z AT KLNK AND SHORTLY
AFTER THAT AT KOMA/KOFK. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CONVECTION. THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY MID MRNG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS POST
RA BEFORE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. SOME
THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA SAT EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES...BUT
ESPECIALLY AT KOMA/KOFK.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

316 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 07 OR 08Z OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS
TIME...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER MID MORNING...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE 00Z TO
06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30
GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH FOR STORMS. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 02Z TO
06Z SUNDAY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

803 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 18Z NAM12 OUTPUT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NE HAS EXPIRED. A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...532 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM KONM TO KCAO. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 20-25KT AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THRU THE EVE. TAF SITES KTCC AND KROW WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THIS EVENING...AND
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THEREAFTER...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND IMPACT
KTCC...AND PERHAPS KLVS...GENERALLY AFT 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS
SOME AREAS UNTIL 15Z MON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TONIGHT/MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH ISO ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE W/SW AS WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SNEAK INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO THE STATE FROM
DISINTEGRATING HURRICANE BLANCA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST
MONDAY...BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD AGAIN. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR RATHER ACTIVE...BUT NO DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK WILL BE TOTALLY DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE RADAR RANCH. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FAR
WEST AND DEWPOINTS OUT THERE STARTING TO CRATER. THE EAST IS IN LINE
TO SEE MORE STORM ACTION THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTER TERM MODELS...WITH THE RUC HOLDING ONTO
MORE PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDER AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND
SUGGESTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD AGAIN
BY TUESDAY...IN THE MEANTIME THERE MAY BE SOME DRY-ISH STORMS OUT
TOWARD THE AZ BORDER. THE MAIN PORTION OF WHAT/S LEFT OF BLANCA
MAY GO UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND OVER NRN
NM AND SRN CO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROF. MAIN STORY IS INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THAT ANOTHER TROF
KEEPS MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION...SO NO DAY IS DRY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH...WETTING RAIN HAS BEEN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT IT HAS BEEN SPOTTIER ACROSS THE WEST. MOST STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET...THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NE PLAINS...AND MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. AS THE
FRONT OOZES SOUTH AND WEST...IT SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OR
SO OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
STATE. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...AND
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH THE FRONT BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. ISO-SCT STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OR POINTS
JUST WEST...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING MUCH SLOWER
THAN TODAY...SO SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LATER
MONDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...STEERING THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WESTWARD INTO AZ/CA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WEST BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE
STORMS.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
BLANCA WILL GO LATE TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
CALI COAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM AZ/CA INTO UTAH...WITH NM ON THE EDGE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO NM. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE TUE INTO WED.

LATEST MODELS SHOW THURS TO BE MUCH DRIER AS A DRY SLOT ENVELOPES
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH/LOW SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE NM/CO BORDER LATE THURS AND FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PLAINS. THUS...MORE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

532 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM KONM TO KCAO. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 20-25KT AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THRU THE EVE. TAF SITES KTCC AND KROW WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THIS EVENING...AND
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THEREAFTER...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND IMPACT
KTCC...AND PERHAPS KLVS...GENERALLY AFT 06Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS
SOME AREAS UNTIL 15Z MON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TONIGHT/MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH ISO ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE W/SW AS WELL.

FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

558 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RICH PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THE STATE FROM THE
SW. MODELS ARE FAVORING N AND E AREAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
CENTRAL AREAS FOR CONVECTION WITH NW AREAS FIRING FIRST. ACCORDING
TO THE TRUSTED HRRR MODEL...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS MAY
RESULT IN LARGE DIVERSIONS FROM FLIGHT ROUTES. SOME OF THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS N AND E AREAS...WITH ONLY SPOTTY
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO W AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE E.

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...NOT THAT
DIFFERENT A DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVITY FROM WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY...
AGAIN MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ALSO WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH QUARTER OF THE
STATE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY DOWNSIZING THE DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND CHANCES ACROSS WEST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A BIT OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...EARLY TO MID WEEK...IT
BECOMES A STRUGGLE BETWEEN DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM BLANCA TRYING TO COME IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH...EAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM LATE THIS MORN AND ESPEC
THIS AFTN. MODEST DRY AIR INTRUSION MAY TENTATIVELY BEGIN ACROSS
THE SW QUARTER OR SO OF THE FCST AREA...DECREASING COVERAGE A BIT
THERE. BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG OR
PERHAPS LOW END SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NEARLY
ANY SPOT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE
DEGRADED AT LEAST A BIT PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN EXPECTED THERE.

DRIER AIR TO GAIN MORE GROUND IN THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SUN
WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS AT LEAST WEST AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. AGAIN...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. THE DRIER TREND WILL ALSO ALLOW AT LEAST A
MODEST DEGREE OF WARMING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA STILL IS DEPICTED BY MOST
FCST MODELS TO EASE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND SOCAL BETWEEN LATE
MONDAY AND WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD OVER NM. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER OVER
NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO ENCOURAGE
GREATER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NM.

THE NEXT TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH NM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME MOISTURE FROM BLANCA MAY REMAIN...
ENOUGH SO THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. JUST HOW MUCH SO FOR NM IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
SHEARS APART. SOME OF THE RICHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH READINGS FROM 130 TO OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR MORE
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO
THE ARIZONA BORDER. THE FOUR CORNERS AREA COULD ACCUMULATE NEARLY A
HALF INCH OF FRESH PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY THE CASE ELSEWHERE.

THE MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER DUE TO WEAKER
DYNAMICS AND LESS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLUME. AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...READINGS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGREES MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NE PLAINS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY
BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TILT EVEN FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD FOR AREAS OF
WETTING PRECIPITATION.

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA SHOULD TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ AS IT GETS INGESTED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
AREAWIDE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS UPPER LOW WEAKENS
AND TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER. A COLD FRONT MAY
THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

942 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH
THE NW FA. ELSEWHERE PCPN MORE ISOLATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR
LANGDON. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NW AND
DECREASING POPS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF
HEAVY RAIN REPORTS WITH THE BAND JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AND RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES SO CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS AND QPF.

RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH MT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
NAM AND GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS HAS THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BEST WITH THE
ECMWF AT LEAST AT THE 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE
TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

PRECIP SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN HEAVY OVER WESTERN ND...AND
GIVEN THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF PRECIP BULLSEYE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...THINK SOME HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS AT THIS
POINT. CURRENT WPC QPF HAS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE FFG IS LOWER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY
ONE SPOT TO INCLUDE A WATCH AT THIS POINT.

THE NAM BRINGS SOME CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF AROUND 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GFS
IS A LOT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY...BUT THE RAP SHOWS
SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF WE GET ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP DESTABILIZE...BUT THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING OFF INTO MN BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
FOCUS OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARM 850MB TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.
WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THINK WE WILL
GET SOME SCATTERED PRECIP AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND WITH SUN AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...TEMPS WILL BECOME
QUITE TOASTY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS WELL INTO CANADA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW
AND WILL MONITOR.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK
TO BE VERY WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH THE UPPER LIMIT
ON TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE INFLUENCED ON FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WITH RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL TEMP
PROFILES. SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS
THOUGH.

COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SPREADING EAST ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS...ALTHOUGH HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND...WITH THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BAND. THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS...WITH SOME RECOVERY TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT KEPT MOST SITES WITH VIS ABOVE 6SM BUT WILL WATCH
THOSE THAT GET HEAVIER RAIN WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC
LOW.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CROSBY
ALREADY REPORTING ALMOST 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF DIVIDE AND
WILLIAMS COUNTIES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KENMARE AND STANLEY TO BOWMAN. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE
INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS
REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK EARLY
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1134 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AND TAKE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY TO CLEAR THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WV LOOP SHOWS A DIGGING MID LVL TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS
WITH ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LINED UP ALONG LL JET FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA
ACROSS THE NW MTNS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS NOSE OF LL JET APPROACHES.
FURTHER EAST...HAVE ZEROED OUT THE POPS THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SERLY FLOW/STABLE AIR MASS PRESENT EAST
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY ALONG SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MARCH ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 04Z-11Z IN ASSOC W/BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT NOSE OF LL JET. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS. MINS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WEST...RANGING THROUGH THE M60S UNDER
CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE EAST...MORE BINOVC WILL ALLOW BETTER
COOLING WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE L60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SLOW
MOVING FRONT PRODUCES A SEVERE AND/OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL PA.

BY 12Z MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GLAKS...WITH PW GREATER THAN 1.5" IN
A PLUME FROM CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF PA. THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH WRN PA AND INTO CENTRAL PA AT THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...PUSHING A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. CENTRAL PA IS PAINTED INTO DAY 2 SLGT RISK FOR THIS
AND CONCUR...COULD BE THE BEST SETUP SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR
SEVERE...AND TRAINING CELLS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED...MODELS GENERATE IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
CAPE AND WIND SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION THAT
INTENSIFIES AS IT SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA. MODELS CONT TO
GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE ABS VORTICITY UNDER THE STRONG
JET ENTRANCE REGION...OFTEN A GOOD INDICATION OF THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE MODELS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RICH PLUME
OF PW IS NUDGED TO THE PEIDMONT REGION BY 12Z TUE AND OFFSHORE.
TRAILING VIGOROUS H5 TROF DIGS IN ON THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DESPITE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW 80S SOUTH. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DROPS TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR LVL TROF PASSING
OVER CENTRAL PA AT 00Z WED AND THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST OVER
NIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS WOULD INDICATE A CLEARING
PATTER BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
FLATTENING ANY UPR LVL RIDGING AND PROBABLY ALLOWING SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA. ALSO PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NW
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRON UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WED
NIGHT AND DROPS IT A LITTLE SOUTH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY E-W
THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSINVE ADVANING THE
FRONT SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO THU WHERE IT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER. WPC COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS
AND CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT WITH ONLY A WEAK 1017 HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WOULD LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WENT WITH GUIDANCE BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EFFECT ON CLOUDS
AND POPS WHICH COULD LOWER THE MAX TEMPS. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
REACHING UP TO 90 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GULF MOISTURE TAP IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER PWATS MOVING NORTH UP THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OVERRUNING THE OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS...CAP MAX
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GFS SWEEP A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH A PRETTY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION MOVING NORTHEAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE PA A NICE DAY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS NOSE OF MAIN LL JET CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
SHOWERS /WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISO TSTMS/ FROM A DECAYING MCS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 LATE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
ISO/SCT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA AS WELL DURING
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T IMPACT CIGS/VSBY EXCEPT LOCALLY.
HOWEVER...CIG RESTRICTIONS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NE PA INTO
KBGM-KELM...AND THESE WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA IMPACTING MOST
LOCALES OUTSIDE THE LOWER SUSQ DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
MID MORNING.

MON WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY WITH LLWS LIKELY...LINGERING INTO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR LATER
PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

141 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT
STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND
THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE.
I HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE.

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE
SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF PA. AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH...EARLY CLOUDS MIX OUT AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL BE
COUNTERACTED BY A COOL NORTH BREEZE...WITH TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 70
IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO A NRN STREAM DOMINATED FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SHIFTS
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IN THE MID RANGE TIMEFRAME IS THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT
MID RANGE MODELS BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OUT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WARM MOIST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AND SVR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GEFS HAS AMPLE PWATS AND STRONG LLVL FLOW WHICH SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. DRIER...MORE STABLE
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.

WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE
VFR BY MID MORNING...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.

OVERALL...NOT A BAD WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

114 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT
STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND
THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE. I
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE.

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE
SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT.

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS
IN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED IF ANY CELLS THREATEN SPECIFIC
AIRFIELDS.

MODELS HINT THAT LOWER MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SHALLOW MOIST LOW LAYER. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH DRYING CONDITIONS...SHOULD RETURN ALL
AIRFIELDS TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ONLY
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 H. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW
NEBRASKA AS OF 02Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS BRING
THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 06Z. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS REALLY IMPACTS WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS TONIGHT...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE NOSE OF THIS ANOMALY. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED WITH TREND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH RESULTS IN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z AND REACHING I29 AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AS MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BUT IF
STORMS ORGANIZE...A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AT OR EVEN ABOVE AN INCH. STORM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE INTO SW MN AND FAR NW IA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
LOOKS LIKE A 3 TO 6 H BREAK BEFORE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND RAISES CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WETTING THE GROUND
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF WET GROUND AND THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL AS STORMS
EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MESO HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN EAST/WEST
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-80.

AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AS CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN.

MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT A MINIMUM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IF NOT ADDITIONAL
STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE VALUES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY 12-
18 HOURS LATER. WITH THIS WAVE....THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE...AND WITH TALL THIN CAPE
PROFILES IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING SPEED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED
SPEED...CERTAINLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GREAT SPEED SHEAR. WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...GREAT VALUES OF HELICITY...VGP AND BULK SHEAR.
01KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 -30 KNOT RANGE...WITH
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WITH THIS GOOD SETUP THOUGH...AM
CONCERNED IT WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL...SO STILL APPEARS THERE IS GOOD HAIL POTENTIAL
IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY.

HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT
CLEARING POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS AND POPS WILL BE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
EVENING BUT SOME THREAT IS THERE... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A QLCS
AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SHOWER/STORM THREAT
BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE EVENING STARTS
WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE...AND THE DECREASE WILL CONTINUE
STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO COME IN ON A NORTHWEST
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

THE REGIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MILD AND DRY...BECOMING SLOWLY WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING CLOSE TO MIDSUMMER NORMALS...THAT IS...HOLDING SHORT OF 90
DEGREE HIGHS STILL. A PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER FLOW. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS
FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AS IS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...IF
ANY...FOR THE WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA KICKING OFF CONVECTION AT 05Z.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TAF LOCATIONS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT BUT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND
KHON...AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT KFSD...AND MAINLY JUST
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KSUX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLE AFFECT ALL AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS
WELL IF ON-GOING CONVECTION IN WESTERN NE AND SD HOLDS TOGETHER INTO
EASTERN SD. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BY 12Z SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTH. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KFSD AND KHON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AT KSUX...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEATING MAY ERODE LOWEST
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH
CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT.

AS ALWAYS...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY
TAF LOCATION.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

UPDATE...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS LATE THIS MORNING BUT IN
GENERAL...COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
CEASED. CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ISOLATED
T`STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION BY NOON.

TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW
90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH
AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.

LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL
REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

MVFR DECK IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AR SHOULD
MIX OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.

12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CAP WILL
HOLD OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. HAVE LEFT THE 18Z TAFS FREE OF
VCTS/TS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MONITOR GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY FOR ANY EARLY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...

TVT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

THE EARLY EVENING MCS HAS FALLEN APART AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR KTUP. OTHERWISE ALL
OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

JLH

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

913 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
ERODE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITHIN A
NARROW SWATH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE MID LEVEL
INVERSIONS OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS...ONLY EXPECTING CONTINUED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SW PER THE LATEST HRRR AND IN AN AREA SUPPORTED BY LIGHT SE FLOW
ON THE PERIMETER OF THE EASTERN WEDGE. THUS KEEPING IN SOME LOW
CHANCES ESPCLY NW NC RIDGES/FOOTHILLS TONIGHT...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
SHRA. APPEARS THE RESIDUAL WEDGE WILL LINGER ENOUGH OUT EAST WITH
LOSS OF HEATING TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHRA CHANCES THERE SO KEEPING
THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
WHERE WILL TREND TO BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PC ELSEWHERE OVER
PATCHY FOG LATE. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH ONLY SMALL
ADJUSTS TO LOWS THAT LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS
START TO INCH UP BY DAWN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ARRIVING ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV/SW VA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WASHED-
OUT OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GENERATE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. BULK
OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK CAP AND
MODEST INSTABILITIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KEEPING THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HIGHLIGHTING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SPC
STILL SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS OVER EASTERN WV BY MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW BEST LIFT AND WINDS SHOULD ENTER OUR WRN CWA
BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL AROUND DARK SOME SVR
POTENTIAL EXISTS...SO ADDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CWA. THE BEST ENERGY WILL SHIFT MORE OVER NRN WV INTO
PA BY DAWN TUESDAY SO KEEPING MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST...THINKING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY
BELOW SVR LEVELS OVERALL...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT WIND BASED ON
40KT MID LEVEL FLOW.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH WITH FROPA WITH WESTERLY FLOW CURTAILING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY. COULD BE BREEZY TUESDAY.
SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING
THREAT OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT
INTO NC..BUT BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOME
SEMBLANCE OF UPSLOPE WITH ANOTHER VORT TRACKING ACROSS NRN WV
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COOL POCKET MAY STRING SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO
WV...FAR SW VA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AWAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH SOME MID 50S MTNS TO LOWER TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD
BRING A FEW STORMS AROUND THE BOONE TO FANCY GAP AREA WED
AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...

YOU CAN EXPECT A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR MID-LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
MAIN BELT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/WESTERLIES STAYING UP OVER THE
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ANY WEAK VORTS THAT CAN WORK INTO THE
RIDGE. BEST THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PA/MD CORRIDOR FRIDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE INTO THE WV MTNS.

ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THE SFC RIDGE TRIES TO HANG ON...THOUGH THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GOING ACROSS THE NE WHICH
COULD SINK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE
ARE INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE COLD FRONTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH ARE LESS FREQUENT...SO KEPT HIGHS WARMER THAN CLIMO...WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL THREAT OF STORMS...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS EACH DAY OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 80S WEST...TO AROUND
90-LOWER 90S EAST...WITH 60S AT NIGHT...AND EVEN AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WEST
THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR HEADING NE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING WEDGE. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
COVERAGE MAY MAKE IT OR DEVELOP FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER THINK MOST TO WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
LEAVE IN A VCSH IN SPOTS GIVEN THE GRADUAL RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHERWISE WILL INIT VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE OTHER CONCERN
WITH THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT FILL BACK IN ESPCLY EAST
AS THE WEDGE FLOPS BACK TO SOME DEGREE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING.
LATEST NAM/SREF AGAIN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH PROGGED IFR IN
STRATUS MOST SPOTS AND DENSE FOG IN OTHER SPOTS WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR LONGER. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL DELAY THE CURRENT EARLY
ONSET OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN TEMPO IN SOME LOWER IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN SPOTS FROM
KBCB/KROA EAST OVERNIGHT.

RESIDUAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD ERODE BY MID MORNING MONDAY
AS HEATING COMMENCES ALTHOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS MAY GET STUCK OUT
EAST UNTIL WHATS LEFT OF THE LINGERING WEDGE FINALLY ERODES BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AND MAY NOT REACH
KBLF/KLWB UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED PREFRONTAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO
INCLUDING A VCSH MENTION IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON.
EXPECT DEEPER CONVECTION TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD SOUTHEAST WEST VA BY
EARLY EVENING SO GIVEN HIGH PROBABILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD INSERTING A MVFR
PREVAILING GROUP FOR SHRA/VCTS AT KBLF/KLWB BY MONDAY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR ESPCLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS OVER
THE RIDGES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...RESULTING IN BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THIS OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG
WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR AT TIMES INTO LATE
WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND TRENDED THIS MORNING
TOWARDS HRRR WITH CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER
WORDS...ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST THIS
EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NW NC. THIS
WITHIN A NARROW AXIS BETWEEN MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND
RESIDUAL COOL AIR OUT EAST AIDED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO JUST WEST OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL 1K J/KG CAPE
AND 1+ INCH PWAT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS HELPING TO KEEP CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION GOING. WOULD EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
A WHILE AFTER SUNSET BUT GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW/MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
CONTINUING ESPCLY WEST OVERNIGHT. THUS KEPT SIMILAR HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WHILE CONFINING MORE TO AN AXIS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LITTLE OUT IN THE PIEDMONT OR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL
AS HAVE SEEN AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD THIS
EVENING. OTRW PC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.
STILL RATHER COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S OVERALL.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY
RELINQUISHING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AMPLIFIES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO THE NORTH. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT
AND IT WILL END UP PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY JUNE NORMALS...GENERALLY UPPER 50 TO MID- 60S. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TRY TO PUSH SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
BUT SILL ONLY 30S POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEST PWATS WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS BUT
NOTHING OF MUCH HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH ONLY GENERAL THUNDER LIKELY PER SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE..UPPER 70S NW TO MID-80S
SE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WEDGE WILL BE SHALLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ERODING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH
AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY WRING OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS WEEKEND`S WEDGE MAY STILL BE IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT
WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
INCREASING MIXING WILL REMOVE ANY LEFT-OVER WEDGE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TRACKING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH IN ZONAL FLOW...THEREFORE IT
WILL TAKE A GOOD 24-36 HOURS TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TAPER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM A CLOSED LOW
HOVERS OVER THE MID WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT BEST GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING. OTRW FOG AND STRATUS THE OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING
ESPCLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OR WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER EASTERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH MORE OF A STRATUS TO FOG SCENARIO LATE. IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ESPCLY ALONG THE
KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR WITH MVFR ELSW.

INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES EAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WHERE INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO QUICKLY
FADE SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS
LIKELY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD FADE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NW. THIS LOOKS TO MAKE FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY AS MOST LIFT GETS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
ESPCLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERALL VFR
EXPECTED. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT
TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD
EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE
500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH
ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS
EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT
HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE
06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF
SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION
N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB-
KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS
COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT
LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY
NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST
AREA.

SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD
THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE
BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

SUNDAY...
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST
WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE
MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER
SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE
THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR.

MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME
CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT
MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS
SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE
GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME
SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND
THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT
FORECAST CONTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F
IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER
THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP
MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST
IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

FOCUS FOR ANY AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERS ON TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION NEXT 24 HOURS.

FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT IMPULSES TO
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION. LACK OF TRUE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES BUT
COULD SEE WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVE IN BY EVENING WITH STRONGER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSES. KEPT IN WINDOW OF
STORM RISK BUT BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

FOCUS IS CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPO
BOUTS OF IFR DURING HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
KRST IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND KLSE IN THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 07.06Z AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT KRST BY 07.03Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

531 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH THIS MORNING. 1PM HUMIDITIES HERE AT
CHEYENNE DOWN TO AROUND 40 PERCENT MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE
AFTERNOON.AREA RADAR DOES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME CLUSTERS
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE REMAIN HIGH...58 AT
CHADRON AND 57 AT ALLIANCE...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS UP THAT WAY AS WELL.

LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING PEAK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z OR
SO. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA. SHOULD BE OUR NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK TUESDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12 TO
+14C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR
AREA AS MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA...MOVES UP ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHER
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIGHT NOW TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT
WILL SEE A RISK OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER WITH A FAIRLY
DECENT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...WE
DECREASE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST AND WE SEE A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE REGIME OF DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THROUGH 02Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH TURBULENCE
AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.

AFTER 02Z...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 6000 TO 8000 FEET AGL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS. NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE ONCE AGAIN COME UNDER SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

LATEST RIVER GAUGES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AT
MOST AREAS. ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT CONTINUED DECREASES. FOR THE WHITE RIVER UP IN DAWES
COUNTY NEBRASKA...FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS IN
ITS TRIBUTARIES HAS DECREASED...SO NARROWED DOWN AERIAL FLOOD
WARNING TO JUST THE RIVER. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE THAT WILL KEEP THE RIVER HIGH OUT THERE. NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WEDNESDAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

338 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE
STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN XXX COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO
CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS
DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST.

NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START
GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO
25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

LATEST HRRR USED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1140 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF CREEK FLOODING IN THE TRIBUTARIES TO
THE NORTH OF THE WHITE RIVER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAYS HEAVY
RAINS IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT AT SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SVR THREAT
STILL LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL THIS AFTN AS THE SFC TROUGH IS JUST
EAST OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LOW INVOF SOUTHEAST
CA/SOUTHERN NV WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
CO AND WY. A WAVY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED
INTO EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS. CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE SEVERAL HOURS AGO MOVED NORTHEAST INTO
SD. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED FROM THE SOUTH LARAMIE
RANGE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES
ITS NORTHEAST TREK TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER UT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CO INTO
SOUTHERN WY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST THIS MORNING
THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL/SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHEAST CO WITH 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO. STILL A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000J/KG. MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S TO
AROUND 80.

SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS/TSTORMS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING
AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. MONDAY
WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT REBOUND
TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH HOT TEMPS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MAINLY
OROGRAPHICALLY BASED... DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING. RIDGING OVERHEAD LOOKS TO SUPPRESS THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS...HOWEVER A FEW MODERATE STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITHIN
MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE GFS BRINGS A
STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A POSITIVELY ORIENTED TROUGH WITH OVERALL WEAKER ENERGY
ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING CONTINUED TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKS END. AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL
COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING FELL ACROSS
FLOOD-STRICKEN NIOBRARA...AS WELL AS SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECEDE...WITH MINOR FLOODING STILL A CONCERN TODAY. ROADS
INTO AND OUT OF LUSK REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. THE NIOBRARA
RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH WITH STANDING WATER ON HIGHWAY 20 EAST
OF LUSK TO VAN TASSEL AND THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. HIGHWAY 270
NORTH OF MANVILLE IS ALSO CLOSED. FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAY`S STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED WEST OF NIOBRARA COUNTY.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT MITCHELL...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER LATE THIS WEEK. THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THIS WEEKEND...CRESTING AT 8.2 FEET EARLY MONDAY. SARATOGA`S
FORECAST YESTERDAY PREDICTED THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER TO
CREST JUST ABOVE THE ACTION STAGE MONDAY. THESE FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH MORE RAINFALL AND INCREASED RESERVOIR
RELEASES AT GUERNSEY AND GLENDO.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ/TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

905 PM MST SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
MONDAY...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY AND
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA-WIDE. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.

.DISCUSSION... LATEST IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TS BLANCA ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ. THIS IS
ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OF THETA-E
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
GROUND THIS FAR NORTH WHERE THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER. POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...EVEN ACROSS PINAL COUNTY
THROUGH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE LOW DESERTS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 90S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS STARTING TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. KEMX RADAR PICKING UP SOME VERY WEAK ECHOES
WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO WITH 1.0 INCH VALUES
GETTING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OVER SOUTHERN SONORA...PWAT
VALUES ARE DOUBLE THAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GET SOME COOLING. THE CENTER OF BLANCA...NOW A
TROPICAL STORM AND WEAKENING FAST...IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AS OF 21Z. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. LATEST TRACK HAS IT
WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION MONDAY NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE AZ/MEXICO
BORDER BUT WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS TRACK...MOST
NOTICEABLY FOR THE DEPRESSION STAGE. THIS CHANGE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC LARGE
SCALE FLOW FEATURES...ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO/TEXAS...
TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND DISSIPATING BLANCA IN BETWEEN.
THERE IS HOWEVER DISAGREEMENT ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IN THE
THE MORPHOLOGY OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS CONTINUE
TO BRING ABOUT WIDELY VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE QPF. THUS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE CAPE WILL BE
MEAGER. THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHEREIN
MODEST LIFT CAN LEAD TO SHOWERS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. PRECIP MAY GET STARTED WITH CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA MONDAY DRIFTING INTO OUR AREA. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THAT
WOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANT CLOUD MASS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...PORTIONS
OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ALSO MOVE THROUGH...FIRST AT UPPER LEVELS
THEN MID LEVELS. THESE WAVES MAY OR MAY NOT AID IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. ANTICIPATE A SCENARIO WITH AN UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ANTICIPATE THAT THE
INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MORE LIKELY BE FELT OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY...THOUGH VEF FORECAST AREA
WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE DIFFLUENCE RELATED FORCING THAN US. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO BE INLAND BUT GFS IS A BIT
WEAKER WITH IT THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS STARTS DRY ADVECTION
FROM THE WEST FASTER THAN ECMWF. EITHER WAY...ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED PRECIP POTENTIAL. OF NOTE...QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MODEST...LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF
CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING. NOT NEAR ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS
POINT TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING AS WELL. A SERIES OF SMALLER
PACIFIC TROFS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY
ACROSS NEVADA...UTAH...AND NORTHERN AZ. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR
EXAMPLE...700 MB DEWPOINTS WHICH PEAK IN THE 8 DEGREE C RANGE (WHICH
IS EXCESSIVE) TUESDAY EVENING...FALL TO NEAR 0 DEG C IN PHOENIX...
AND INTO THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE OVER YUMA. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH COOLER 500 MB TEMPS POINT TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. STABLE
ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...
ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC TROFS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEEPEN INTO CENTRAL AZ AND
BECOME A CUTOFF LOW SATURDAY MORNING. WITH 500 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UNSTABLE RANGE OF MINUS 11 DEG C...AND WITH A WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER AND REMNANT MOISTURE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF NOW TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THIS INITIAL
AREA OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS WILL GNLY STAY 20-25KFT. WINDS TO FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS GNLY 8KTS OR LESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM BLANCA
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY RAISING AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES. WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DECREASE. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER DIFFICULTY
REMAINS IN NARROWING DOWN THE AREAS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
SUPPORT SOME AFTN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE...SAVE FOR ANY
ENHANCED BREEZINESS IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

449 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
IMPACTING THE AREA...ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START...AS STRATOCU FIELD ALREADY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO ERN CT/LONG ISLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED STRONG SEA BREEZE
EVENTS WILL UNFOLD AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY...INCREASING THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OFF TO THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN A 40-50
KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY
AGGRESSIVE...WITH FCST GUSTS OF 35-45 KT IN COASTAL SECTIONS.
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THINK MOST PEAK GUSTS
WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH AN ISOLD
GUST UP TO 40 KT AS WITH OTHER RECENT EVENTS...AND 25-30
KT ELSEWHERE FROM NYC EAST.

THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR OVER MOST AREAS FROM NYC EAST WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THERE TODAY...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE
CASE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP THERE WITH PEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON...ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES
AFTER 21Z...WHERE SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL HELP FUEL TSTMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...WITH WINDS VEERING
FROM S TO SW WITH HEIGHT...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS OR ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...EVEN A
BRIEF TORNADO. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS INTO ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL NORTH/WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN STORMS OVER ORANGE/WRN PASSAIC SHOULD PROGRESS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST TOWARD NYC METRO AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD 23Z-00Z...WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SVR
WIND/HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
THINK WEAKENING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE LATE EVENING THAN WITH OTHER RECENT
EVENTS...SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER SW FLOW OVER 40 KT AND A REMNANT
EML BETWEEN 700-900 MB...SO HAVE CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND
CT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND LATE
DAY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...SINCE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST BY THAT TIME. HI-RES ARW FCSTS THAT
POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS RUNNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

BULK SHEAR IS STRONGER ON TUE VIA MID LEVEL SW FLOW OF 50
KT...WITH MLCAPE UP T0 1000 J/KG NW OF NYC AND UP TO 500 J/KG
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT...SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLD SVR. TEMPS ON TUE LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER AND MID
80S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND MID/UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS SW...BUT STILL ONLY LOWER 70S FOR ERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM INTO
FRI...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ANY ISO
TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY E OF NYC AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE E
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING SW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED
NIGHT. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N/W
OF NYC THU AFTN/EVE WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. A SW FLOW
CONTINUES UNTIL THE FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THU CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE NY/NJ METRO.

FRI THROUGH SUN...THERE`S UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS IS
FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/08 RUN
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOESN`T CUTOFF THE FLOW AT
H5 UNTIL THE TROUGH REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NIGHT. DID
NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG IT. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS THAN
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY WEST OF NYC
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY WEST OF NYC.

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SUB-VFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOUTH WINDS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT INCREASE MONDAY.
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AIRPORTS AS THEY INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. BY
LATE DAY...SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN ANY NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS/TSTMS. S WINDS DIMINISH. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR/KGON.
.TUE...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. W WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AT KSWF...
OTHERWISE VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.FRI...VFR.

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRENGTHENING S FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ON THE OCEAN JUST E OF SANDY HOOK...AND ON
THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7
FT PER 00Z WAVEWATCH.

WINDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE EVE...ALTHOUGH SEAS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL WED MORNING E OF
MORICHES INLET...DUE TO A MODERATE SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TUESDAY...AN AVERAGE OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WITH ABOUT 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE MOST
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...WHERE ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1232 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE PIA AND BMI AIRPORTS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CARRY VCSH NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-4 MILES WITH HEAVIER RAINS ALONG I-72
UNTIL 08Z ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH CMI FOR
POSSIBLE CELINGS BELOW 1K FT TOO WHERE FEW004 CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO NW IL WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL IL
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SHIFTING WEST. WINDS
WILL BE WNW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 15Z MON AND THEN DIMINISH LIGHT BY SUNSET MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE ISOLATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS 4-6K FT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ALL IS QUIET IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY WITH ONLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
SAID...THE WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTHEAST WITH THE DYING CONVECTION AND MAY
EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. STILL LOOKING LIKE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE AFTER 2 PM AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
CAPTURE LATEST WEATHER VERY WELL...BUT RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK
AND HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
THUS...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE RAP SOLUTION THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PLAN TO REMOVE THUNDER THIS MORNING AS THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THINGS AT BAY. STILL EXPECTING US TO
DESTABILIZE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF CLOUD COVER PERSIST...THAT WOULD PUT A HUGE HIT ON OUR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WORK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FOR NOW...JUST TWEAKED POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND REMOVED THUNDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. BASED ON LATEST NAM12 MODEL
DATA AND TRENDS OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT ENTERS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA UNTIL 10 OR
11Z ON MONDAY. INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT HAD FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. NOW
THAT SUN SET IS APPROACHING...AND WITH NO NEW ACTIVITY HAVING
POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA...DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY.
WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE
LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD INCLUDED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND TO REMOVE
ANY OUTDATED WORDING IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD THAT MAY HAVE BEEN IN
THERE BEFORE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LIFT
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WISE THIS HAS BEEN BEST PICKED UP BY THE HRRR.
GIVEN THIS DID INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL FEATURE PASSING CIRRUS FROM WHAT IS LEFT
FROM NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TONIGHT ALL
EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL BE AIDED BY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. RIGHT NOW THIS BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FROM PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NW GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-64. THINKING THE INITIAL LINE WILL BE UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AT THIS POINT AS IT TRACKS SE. THE CAVEAT TO THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS WHAT ROLE DOES IT PLAY IN LATER SEVERE TREAT. ANY
LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER COULD WANE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WOULD LIMIT
BETTER INSTABILITY.

RIGHT NOW DO THINK A SEVERE TREAT EXISTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z TO 05Z GIVEN CAPES AOA 2000
J/KG...DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AT TIMES...SOME REASONABLE SPEED
SHEAR/SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MID LEVEL DRYING. THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH MORE A MULTICELL CLUSTER/SQUALL LINE STORM MODE.
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE FORM OF CIPS ANALOGS BRING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE SHOWING A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS UNDER
SIMILAR REGIMES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER FZL ABOVE 10
KFT AND WBZ MOSTLY ABOVE 10 KFT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE MOSTLY
EAST OF THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EXITING TO
THE EAST. AFTER THIS...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGES MOVES SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY...THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND IT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE TN AND
VA BORDER AND THIS AREA BECOMES A FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH HOT AND
MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH THESE DAYS...CONVECTION WILL TAKE A MORE DIURNAL
TREND AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHT
PERIODS. AS WELL...THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN THE EXTENDED LEAD TO
SOME LOWERING OF DAYTIME POPS A BIT AS WELL.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SO THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE A MORE DIURNAL
TREND FOR PRECIP WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE ARE SOME BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. FIRST...WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION
SO HAVE NARROWED IN THE TIME RANGE IN THE TAFS WITH A 4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS...A PERIOD
OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THESE ISSUES...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEPART AND WEAKEN...AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE PAC NW INTO SRN BC/ALBERTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NW WI SUPPORTED MID CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES.
AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV WITH SOME DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO NW MN. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI WITH AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE EAST.

TODAY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV APPROACHES AND DAYTIME HEATING PUSHES MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. EXPECT THE GREATEST PCPN COVERAGE ALONG AND
INLAND FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL SAG INTO SRN UPPER MI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
FCST 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY NEAR 20 KNOTS AND INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL...RELATIVELY LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM 8K-9K FT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TS WITH SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...ANY ONGOING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV EXITS TO THE
EAST. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. QUIET PERIOD WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IF MOST OF THE RAIN
AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN OR REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER SETTLES OVER FOR NEXT SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
NEXT SUNDAY AS SFC TROUGH APPROACHES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS PRESENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA DROPS ACROSS NW ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE
OF H25 JET SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA COMBINE
TO INCREASE LIFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. DESPITE TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE 80S OVER WEST HALF TUE AFTN...INSTABILITY REMAINS
MINIMIZED THROUGH MID AFTN DUE TO H7-H6 CAPPING. SHRA AND TSRA MAY
TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN ON LAKE BREEZES OF WEST AND NCNTRL CWA. DUE
TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY AT LEAST TO START THE AFTN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE AFTN AS SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER
AND MLCAPES INCREASE OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING NW ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN
BY 00Z WED INCREASE SHARPLY. RESULT IS 0-6KM SHEAR 45-50 KTS BY 00Z
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OVER 20 KTS. LIFT AND SHEAR ARE CERTAINLY THERE.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AFTN COMES DOWN TO EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. GFS/NAM SHOW MLCAPES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 750-
1000J/KG WHILE ECMWF AND GEM-NH KEEP THOSE HIGHER CAPE VALUES MORE
OVER MN AND NW WI. GIVEN H85-H3 WINDS...MEAN STORM MOTION OF NW-SE
WOULD KEEP STRONGER STORMS ONLY OVER WEST CWA OR MAYBE SW OF CWA.
OVERALL...ISOLD STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH
MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FAR WEST CWA...CLOSER TO SPC DAY2 SLIGHT RISK.

STILL APPEARS THAT COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL ROLL WNW-ESE ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR AND/OR UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY EVENING. COULD BE ADDITIONAL
COMPLEXES ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION AS WELL. NAM/GEM-NH FARTHER NORTH
WITH NORTHERN GRADIENT OF MUCAPE TO 3KM OVER 1000J/KG WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE SOUTH. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 50 KTS...SEEMS
THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
TSRA MOVE THROUGH. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING WELL OVER 20 KTS INDICATES
THAT COMPLEX WOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AS IT TRACKS EAST...LIKELY ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ALL THE SHRA/TSRA WILL ESSENTIALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA AFT 06Z ON WED.

NAM/SREF POINT TO WEAK DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. LIMITING FACTORS ARE GFS SHOWING
MORE MIXED/DRIER PROFILE THROUGH H7 AND WELL AGREED UPON LARGE SCALE
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BY ALL THE MODELS. PUT SMALL CHANCES IN FOR
NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA...BUT NO TSRA AS THINK WOULD ONLY SEE SHALLOW
CU/TCU AND A FEW SHRA AS EVEN NAM SHOWS CAPPING LAYER H7-H5. MAY BE
BREEZY FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS MIXED
LAYER WINDS JUST OFF SFC INCREASE OVER 20 KTS. WARMEST TEMPS ON WED
AFTN OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA WHERE LINGERING WARM AIR AT H85 COMBINES
WITH STIFF DOWNSLOPE WINDS. KMNM MAY REACH LOW-MID 80S. TEMPS
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING QUIET PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ATTN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS ON LOW PRESSURE AND
WARM FRONT LIFTING FM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING IN HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING WARM FRONT BOTH AT THE SFC AND
ALSO AT H85-H7. ATTM...APPEARS MAIN H85-H7 FRONTS WILL BE JUST SOUTH
OF UPR MICHIGAN SO BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LIKELY WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. POSSIBLE THAT KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN AT ALL. RIGHT ENTRANCE JET
FORCING WILL ACT TO OFFSET THIS SOME...BUT WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...THINK THERE WILL BE SHARP GRADIENT FM
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO NOT MUCH RAIN AT ALL. AFTER BRIEF VISIT BY
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOUTH FLOW
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA BACK TO CWA FM
WEST TO EAST NEXT SUNDAY.

AFTER WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...REST OF WEEK SHOULD SEE
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. COOLEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH WILL PROBABLY BE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
WIDEPSPREAD RAIN AFFECTING SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN AND EASTERLY WINDS
OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SFC MSTR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING INDICATES FOG/IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL IMPACT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS MAY
IMPACT CMX AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING ON MON WL ALLOW STEADY
IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF UPR DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH THE SURFACE HEATING WL RESULT IN INSTABILITY -SHRA...WHICH WL
BE MOST LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TS MAINLY AT
THESE TWO SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO LO TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES
BY LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WED AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

456 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MON MORNING
AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

430 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENSURES A
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY FORECAST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT WE WILL MIX TO NEAR 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE LOWERED
DEWPOINTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. I HAVE THEM BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THEY MAY VERY WELL GO LOWER THAN
THIS. ONE ISSUE MAY BE THAT RECENT RAIN WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR. THIS MAY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS WELL...BUT FOR
NOW...I HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S WITH A COMBINATION OF ARW AND RAP FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...THANKS TO A TROUGH AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CO...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS CANADA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXTENDS S/SW INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THAT CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
KEEPS PUSHING EAST...WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO DRIFT
SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE CWA W/SWRLY
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END /10 TO 15
MPH/ AS THAT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FAR N/NW CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND THAT WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...HAVE
FORECAST HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THAT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER
THE REGION...THROUGH THE AXIS WILL BE PUSHING EAST AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO DO SO...BUT AS IT LOSES ITS
PUSH FROM ALOFT...WEAKENS/STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. HAD INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTN...DECIDED TO KEEP THEM GENERALLY AS IS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WRN
LOW...MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY VALUES SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
AREA.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THAT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMES COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN BY THAT WRN
ENERGY...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH...KEPT POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING) ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BECOME JUST A BIT GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KGRI. WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT LIGHT ENOUGHTO
PRECLUDE A NEW FM GROUP.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

356 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP SKY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIXING UP TO 700 MB IS EXPECTED...SO A BIT OF A GUST MAY OCCUR IN
THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR KGRI.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1154 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES...POTENTIALLY LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR STATUS AT
KCAO...KLVS...KTCC...AND PERHAPS KCVS. THESE WILL DISPERSE INTO
THE LATE MORNING WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
FAVORING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...803 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 18Z NAM12 OUTPUT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NE HAS EXPIRED. A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

359 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN
AROUND THE HIGH DIRECTED INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRIAD AREA. THERE`S NOTHING TO REALLY SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...THOUGH THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SOME SIMULATED ECHOES
AROUND AS FAR EAST AS GREENSBORO BY 12Z.

DEVELOPING STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 20KT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WV
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY PASS TO OUR NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. FULL SUN
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF THE TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A BETTER (BROKEN) LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE DECENT DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...POOR DIURNAL TIMING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BY
MIDNIGHT...AND MOST CAMS SHOW LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

DESPITE THE EARLY PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A
SHARPER PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH AND DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE EAST OF US 1) BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TOT HE NORTH
OVER VA...BUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ITS STILL
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL END UP NEAR THE
SANDHILLS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW AND DRYING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ANY
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED MORE BY SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THAN COOLING...AND THE TAIL END OF AN ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
TROUGH REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NC WED. BEFORE THE FOLLOWING HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT/DEVELOPING CAP SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC...SOME OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NW AS
THE RAH EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. WARM AND OTHERWISE DRY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OTHERWISE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST US. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL
RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 90S...LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW OWING TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM RIDGE...WITH THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON STORM ON THE SEA BREEZE
(INCLUDING AROUND SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST
WILL BE SLIGHTLY PRECEDED BY OR WILL INCLUDE THE ABSORBED REMNANTS
OF BLANCA...WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRI-SAT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRECEDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST SAT...AND QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMAIN RELATIVELY
HOT...WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE
RETURN IS DIRECTED ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NC THIS MORNING AND SOME
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT KGSO AND KINT...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY BRIEFLY FROM KFAY TO KRDU. WHAT STRATUS
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 15-20KT AT TIMES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AT KGSO AND KINT AFTER 22Z AND A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY AND
THEN MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

335 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

TUE STILL APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP SHARPEN
SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NC... PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A MOIST CONVEYOR BAND OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW (OVER 150% OF NORMAL)... AS
WELL AS A BATCH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SSWRLY UPPER JET OVER SE CANADA/INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
TIMING COULD BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT THE LATEST MODELS
HAVE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY (THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF)... POTENTIALLY MAKING FOR TOO MANY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK
HEATING. AND THE 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH
AND NE EARLY TUE... ALSO LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
LATEST SREF FOR TUE HAS > 70% PROBABILITIES OF A SURFACE CAPE OVER
1000 J/KG AREAWIDE AND A 50% PROBABILITY OF MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...
DECENT BUT NOT GREAT... AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO PEAK AT
25-30 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE NORTH ONLY. THIS IS REINFORCED
BY THE LATEST GFS WHICH HAS SKINNY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SO THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING VIA DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC LIFT PROCESSES TO
SUPPORT 50-60% POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PW VALUES... BUT THE THREAT
OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS LOOKS MINOR. COVERAGE IS
APT TO BE GREATEST IN THE EAST... WITH ADDED FOCUS NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE. THICKNESSES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL... AND WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN... EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... IN THE MID
80S. LOWS TUE NIGHT 64-70 WITH CONVECTION CHANCES DWINDLING AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST... WITH STABILIZATION AFTER SUNDOWN BEHIND
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CROSSING NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT
WELL EAST WED... DEAMPLIFYING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO JUST
5-15 KTS WITH A LOSS OF EVEN WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING. MUCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA WED... AND PW
SLIPS TO UNDER 1.50". WILL RETAIN LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/ERN CWA
ONLY WED... PEAKING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND DIMINISHING
AFTER NIGHTFALL. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO CLIMB... ABOUT 5 M HIGHER
ON WED THAN ON TUE... AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE... HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 90. LOWS 67-72.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THU/FRI WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH HOLDING IN
PLACE... LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE... VERY WEAK SHEAR... AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. MODELS DO DRIFT SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO
SRN/WRN CWA BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH (IF IT EVEN
OCCURS) GIVEN THE ABOVE MITIGATING FACTORS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS
FOCUSED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE AND PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
NW (MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN) BOTH THU
AND FRI. MODEL DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY IN THEIR NORTHERN STREAM PATTERNS... ALTHOUGH THEY
GENERALLY AGREE ON MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NC BY SUN... HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH
A FEATURE IS HIGH CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER AND
WARMER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND... WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY... WITH
LOWS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...

REC REC
REC REC LO HI REC
DAY MAX YR MIN YR MAX YR MIN YR PCPN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/07 100 2008 47 1977 61 1997 74 2008 5.14 2013
06/08 101 2008 38 1977 63 1891 75 1899 1.71 1943
06/09 100 2008 47 2002 58 1913 75 1993 3.29 1943
GSO RECORDS
06/07 98 1925 47 1998 63 1997 73 2008 4.42 1916
06/08 98 1933 42 1977 65 1997 73 2008 1.68 1951
06/09 99 1933 46 1931 59 1957 72 2008 2.00 1909
FAY RECORDS
06/07 99 2008 40 1929 60 1997 75 2008 2.36 2013
06/08 101 2008 47 1977 66 1997 74 2008 1.30 1985
06/09 101 2008 50 1997 59 1913 77 2008 2.02 1957

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

428 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POP UP ALONG IT IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE
COLUMBUS AREA. MEANWHILE WITH THE BOUNDARY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN ACROSS INDIANA...CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BACK TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME BETTER MOISTURE
UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WITH PWS RISING UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY...BUT
ASSUMING WE CAN AT LEAST GET SOME MODERATE INSTABILITIES...PLENTY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESET FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR THROUGH
THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRIMARY
THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
A LINGERING CHANCE MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WE
WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...COULD LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMING INTO THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW HAS PICKED UP BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER CDFNT SWINGS INTO THE REGION TO HELP FOCUS THE
MOISTURE AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE FRONT STALLS
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLY FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH THOSE DAYS. FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND
80...WITH A REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE
LIMITED TO KDAY/ KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWER BASED. THE NEW RAP ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE LINE
ENOUGH TO WHERE KDAY ONLY GETS THUNDER. DURING THE DAY TODAY
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. A LOT IS
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. IF
MORE PRECIP OCCURS THAN EXPECTED IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE. IF THERE IS LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR SOONER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH CURRENT
THINKING IN TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

420 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING TOWARDS/INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
HOWEVER STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. PRECIP ACTUALLY SHRINKING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH RUC SHOWS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO EXPAND AGAIN INTO THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH CAT POPS MOST AREAS. HIGH WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD SPROUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY BUT
WEDNESDAY BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AS DEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
CONTINUITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THURSDAY
BEGINNING TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO LARGE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA SENDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN ITS BACKSIDE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AMPLE MIXED LAYER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SFC WILL LEND ITSELF TO CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR
SFC BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS OUTERMOST
PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWESTERN STATES. DESPITE
THIS RIDGING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEY
WOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES OF VCTS WILL BE
AT WESTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BY AND LARGE ANY RA OR TS WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER...VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH BR AROUND
9-12Z. NOT EXPECTING VIS TO DROP MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE STRONG TO
GUSTY WIND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CARRY ON UNTIL LATE MONDAY. BY
THEN MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL SETTLE IN UNTIL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND
AGAIN LATER ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
MONDAY WAVES WILL START OFF IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IN
THE NEAR SHORE AND COULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO NEAR SCA IN THE EASTERN
BASIN BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY...BUT FOR NOW THINKING FLOW REGIME ISN`T OPTIMAL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DESPITE THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ON THE LAKE...TO INCLUDE THE OPEN
WATERS...WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 FEET. LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LE AND THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK
FROM THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A FOOT.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

110 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ITSELF
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY HEAD EAST. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WEAKENING TRENDS SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
WAVE. SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER
RAIN IN SOME OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MINOR
FLOOD THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS NORTHWEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH IN THE LATE MORNING AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE
SOME WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

VERY LITTLE IS NOTED AFTER 0Z IN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE AROUND A MAYSVILLE/CHILLICOTHE LINE OR EVEN FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PIKETON OR PORTSMOUTH. SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR IN THE EVENING BUT THE LIONS
SHARE OF RAIN WILL BE DONE BY EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MUTED
DUE TO THE RAIN AND ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON NOT GETTING ANY OF THE
STORMS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
80. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS SE INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP
WEDNESDAY DRY AND DROP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED CHANCE OF
CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW HAS PICKED UP BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH THOSE DAYS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80...WITH A
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE
LIMITED TO KDAY/ KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWER BASED. THE NEW RAP ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE LINE
ENOUGH TO WHERE KDAY ONLY GETS THUNDER. DURING THE DAY TODAY
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. A LOT IS
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. IF
MORE PRECIP OCCURS THAN EXPECTED IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE. IF THERE IS LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR SOONER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH CURRENT
THINKING IN TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

530 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 4 AM. ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SWRN PA
IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WHAT I TRIED TO DEPICT IN MY
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CLEAR MY
EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING THE MORNING MAINLY
DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE LAURELS AT THIS HOUR WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND HAS THEM ENDING IN MY
EASTERN ZONES BY AROUND 6-7 AM. THIS THEN LEAVES MOST OF THE AREA
DRY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION MOVES INTO NWRN PA. HRRR
SHOWS THIS BY MID MORNING BUT I AM ALWAYS LEARY OF MODEL
INITIATION TIMING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW WEAK THE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO LOOKS AT THIS TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO EASTERN PA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING
IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DIABATIC HEATING IN
THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODELS THEN SHOW FAIRLY RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THE ONLY POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR BEING HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MANAGE. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
GOES FURTHER AND SUGGESTS A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
HELICITY FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN PA
SUGGESTING IF WE CAN GET SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANOTHER RISK WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL OF THE POTENT UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT EDGES SOUTH IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME A
CONCERN. NO REAL AREA STICKS OUT AT THE MOMENT AS THE MOST LIKELY.
IT WILL DEPEND A LOT ON MESO BOUNDARIES AND THE PROGRESS OF THE
SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA NOW. LONE HEAVY SHOWER JUST BRUSHING THE
STATE COLLEGE AREA. CIGS STILL GOOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. 09Z TAFS
SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. OTHER
THAN BFD...MUCH OF THE MORNING MAY NOT FEATURE MUCH...AS
THE MAIN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE...AND FURTHER SW ACROSS THE OH VLY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

510 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 4 AM. ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SWRN PA
IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WHAT I TRIED TO DEPICT IN MY
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CLEAR MY
EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING THE MORNING MAINLY
DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

157 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TAKE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FIRST SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AS OF 1 AM
OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE WARM FROM THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
EAST OF ERIE DOWN EAST OF PITTSBURGH. MOISTURE IS COMING UP
QUICKLY WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY INTO WESTERN PA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO THE STILL RELATIVELY
STABLE AIRMASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWING A
BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD MORNING. WILL SPEND THE BULK OF THE
NEXT NEAR/SHORT TERM UPDATE TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHAT LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF SEPARATE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WHAT LOOKS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST.

FROM EARLIER...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SLOW
MOVING FRONT PRODUCES A SEVERE AND/OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL PA.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NW
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WED
NIGHT AND DROPS IT A LITTLE SOUTH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY E-W
THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ADVANCING THE
FRONT SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO THU WHERE IT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER. WPC COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS
AND CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT WITH ONLY A WEAK 1017 HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WOULD LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WENT WITH GUIDANCE BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EFFECT ON CLOUDS
AND POPS WHICH COULD LOWER THE MAX TEMPS. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
REACHING UP TO 90 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GULF MOISTURE TAP IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER PWATS MOVING NORTH UP THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OVERRUNNING THE OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS...CAP MAX
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GFS SWEEP A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH A PRETTY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION MOVING NORTHEAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE PA A NICE DAY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

131 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TAKE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE FIRST SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AS OF 1 AM
OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE WARM FROM THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
EAST OF ERIE DOWN EAST OF PITTSBURGH. MOISTURE IS COMING UP
QUICKLY WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY INTO WESTERN PA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

FROM EARLIER...

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NW
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WED
NIGHT AND DROPS IT A LITTLE SOUTH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY E-W
THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ADVANCING THE
FRONT SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO THU WHERE IT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER. WPC COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS
AND CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT WITH ONLY A WEAK 1017 HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WOULD LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WENT WITH GUIDANCE BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EFFECT ON CLOUDS
AND POPS WHICH COULD LOWER THE MAX TEMPS. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
REACHING UP TO 90 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

145 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD
BRING A FEW STORMS AROUND THE BOONE TO FANCY GAP AREA WED
AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGHS EACH DAY OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 80S WEST...TO AROUND
90-LOWER 90S EAST...WITH 60S AT NIGHT...AND EVEN AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO MVFR AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF LATE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. BELIEVE THE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NC NORTHEASTWARD INTO
VA WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT KLYH AND ON THE LOW SIDE AT KDAN SO MAY HAVE TO
AMEND BEFORE 12Z IF RADAR TRENDS AND MESO MODELS INDICATE A WETTER
SOLUTION.

AFTER DAYBREAK TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF UPSTREAM SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT AS IT REACHES US TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z...THEN
INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT -TSRA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AT KBLF AND KLWB. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO INDICATE ANY SVR STORMS IN THE TAFS AS LATER ISSUANCES
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION AS THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS AND MIXING BRINGS THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
EXPECT GUSTS TO 20KT/25KT AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...RESULTING IN BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THIS OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG
WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR AT TIMES INTO LATE
WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

331 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
SURFACE TEMPS WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT WE/LL BE MIXING UP TO NEAR 800MB...HELPING TO LOWER THOSE
VALUES MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN LOWER. THOUGH
IT/S GETTING DRIER AT THE SURFACE...THE COLUMN HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND THE
SIMULATED ABI SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE WILL BE WITH A SURFACE TROF/CDFNT THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE WITH THE UPPER TROF/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PEAK FOR ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME POTENT
WIND GUSTS AND SPC HAS KEPT US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE DUE TO
THIS. SOME HAIL ALSO LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS.

OVERALL...IT SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE REMAINING CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT
THRESHOLD WHERE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A LITTLE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. IF WINDS STAY OFFSHORE LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...TEMPS WILL END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST NEAR
THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. COULD SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING MAX HEATING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY STRONGER...AND HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...OR POSSIBLY LARGER. THE PEAK ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 15 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WELL WITH SUNSET.

.MARINE...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND POINT SOUTH TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO 22-24KTS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1023 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA. SHOULD BE OUR NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK TUESDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12 TO
+14C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

VFR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1022 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW....WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE SLOWING COLD FRONT IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOMORROW BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS OF 1022 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS HOUR. SCT SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EXTREME WRN NY...AND NEAR
SE ONTARIO AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A
COLD FRONT TRAILS UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST.

THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY IF THE FCST AREA HAS SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE SOME BREAK UPSTREAM OVER
CNTRL PA...AND CNTRL NY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE FILLING BACK IN OVER
WRN NY.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER
LOCATIONS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG FOR THIS PM. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ON THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASES TO 30-40+ KTS IN THE PM AND EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF THE
SHORT-WAVE. SOME DEEP...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IS
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
FAIRLY WEAK AT 5-6.2C/KM BASED ON THE THE 12Z KBUF/KALY SOUNDINGS.
PWATS ARE ON THE RISE TO AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH BACKBUILDING OR STALLED STORMS...BUT
THEY COULD LOCALLY PUT DOWN THE BETTER PART OF AN INCH IN A VERY
SHORT TIME IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...NRN-ERN CATSKILLS INCLUDING GREENE AND
ULSTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE BEST OVERLAY OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE MID PM INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA IS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LATEST HRRR COLUMNAR MAX REF PRODUCT HAS CONVECTION FIRING UP
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-20Z...AND
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH 00Z/TUE. SOME LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS DEVELOP WITH SOME BOWING ELEMENTS. WE AGREE
WITH SPC THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF SHOWS A LATER DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LINES OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
FORMING OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 03Z. WE TRIED TO COMPROMISE THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY 18Z-21Z...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST 21Z-02Z.

DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER OF CLOSE
TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE
WARM SECTOR...THERE IS A ISOLD THREAT OF A TORNADO. ACCORDING TO
SPC...THERE IS A 2 PERCENT OF TORNADO DEVELOPING WITHIN 25 MILES
OF ANY GIVEN SPOT IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...SO A VERY LOW
THREAT (BUT NOT ZERO).

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A
FEW LOWER 80S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. EXPECT U60S TO
L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT...JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND LIKELY TRIGGER YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THEY
STILL COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...THE BIGGER THREAT TONIGHT WOULD BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IN FACT...AS OF
NOW...THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE HEAVY QPF COMING THROUGH. MANY AREAS
COULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAST MOVING 500HPA FLOW AS FORECAST AREA AND N
TIER OF USA IS THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HOT HUMID AIR JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND MILDER AIR ACROSS THE N TIER OF USA AND S CANADA.

TUES MORNING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS REGION AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT
A 500 HPA TROF AND COLD POOL OVER THE REGION. THE GEM/GFS/NAM ALL SUPPORT
A WAVE FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEAK-MODEST
CYCLOGENSIS...WHICH WITH RICH MOISTER OVER FORECAST AREA (PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED MUCH OF TUES...1.7 INCHES IN THE MORNING...FALLING SLOWLY TO
1.3 IN IN THE EVENING...FINALLY DROPPING OFF TUE NT) AND RICHER
YET THETA-E AIRMASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PERIOD OF RN WITH SCT TSTMS IN S PORTION OF FORECAST AREA NR COLD FRONT. AFTER
SFC WV EXITS TUES AFTN/EVNG CAPES REACH 500-1000 J/KG ON THE
NAM/GFS. -SHRA WILL LINGER INTO TUES NT AS 500 HPA TROF AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS VARY AMONG THE MODELS GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...BUT AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH
TO AN INCH SEEMS A GOOD BET IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND TUE EVENING.

WED FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WK SFC HIGH CRESTS OVR REGION WITH
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMP
SHORT WV WILL REACH NYS IN THE AFTN WITH INCRG CLOUDS...TD AND AT
THIS TIME SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY W OF FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS
REGION WED NT.

THUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW AND WK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN FORECAST AREA WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MAJOR BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
NOT FAIR AWAY..E-W ACROSS PA IN THE I80 CORRIDOR...SOUTH OF WHICH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S AND TD IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FAST PARADE OF SYSTEMS THAT DOMINATED THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS N TIER OF USA REMAINS THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN MILDER AIR...AND HOT HUMID AIR.

FRIDAY A WARM FRONT AND THE VERY WARM AIRMASS SURGE N THROUGH
FORECAST AREA...AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM E GREAT LAKES. FRI NT...500 HPA SHORT WV
DIVES SE IN FLOW...AND DRIVES SFC COLD FRONT THRU FORECAST AREA FRI NT AND SAT
MORNING WITH SCT -SHRA/TSTMS.

THE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING THIS FRONT AS FAR NORTH...AND SUGGESTS AN MCS
DEVELOPMENT FRI NT INTO SAT FM I90 NORTH.

GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS TAKING HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION...SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM UPR GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN TO OVER FORECAST AREA SUN. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER REGION...1000-500 DM THICKNESS REMAINING ARND 565-570DM...TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABV NORMALS.

WPC CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ALONG THE LINES OF ECMWF PLACEMENT FOR FRONTAL
SYSTEM SAT...AND AND GIVEN WERE TALKING ABOUT DAY 6...POPS IN GFS
ARE STILL IN THE HI CHC RANGE...WILL POPULATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD W/WPC...WITH
MENTION OF TSTMS SAT AS PRECIP MECHANISM.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT.

THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. WE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 14Z-15Z AT ALL TAFS BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS LINE WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THIS BATCH MOVES OUT...THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-15 KTS...GUSTING AT TIMES
TO 20-25KTS.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN PLACED IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THUNDER MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON (A LITTLE LATER AT KPOU)...MAINLY IN THE
21Z-01/TUE TIME FRAME. WE INCLUDED VRBG25KT AS THE STORMS MIGHT
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HELD CONDITIONS NO WORSE THAN
HIGH LEVEL MVFR.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS...A WAVE MIGHT FORM ALONG IT AND
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN. FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE EVENING
PEAK...DROPPING TO LOW MVFR /EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED/ AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SCT TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST...IF NOT ALL AREAS...SHOULD RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL TURN DECISIVELY MORE HUMID TODAY...AS DEWPOINTS RISE FROM
THE 40S...TO AROUND BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NOT ONLY TODAY...BUT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY
50 PERCENT OR HIGHER.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 MPH TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS
A COLD SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1010 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN GUIDES SOUTH WINDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST TODAY
AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES
NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND THEN STALLS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COMPARING THE 12Z ALBANY VERSUS CHATHAM SOUNDINGS GIVES A SENSE OF
THE AIRMASS THE PRESENT LINE OF WET-WEATHER ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND
IS UP AGAINST. ERODING INTO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WENT TO A HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM BLEND WITH
GREATER WEIGHTING WITH THE HRRR TO TREND OUT THE POP FORECAST. NOT
ANTICIPATING THESE SHOWERS TO GO SO FAR E BUT RATHER DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO THAT. LIKELY POPS INITIALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
DEPARTING FROM THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT AND FORCING VIA LOW-LEVEL-
JET...NOTHING MUCH BUT WETTING ROADWAYS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ON THE AFTERNOON. AN EVALUATION OF THE NEAR-
TERM GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT WELL TO THE W. NOTING
THE HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE EVENT WITH SHEAR ORIENTED W/SW IT IS NO
SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTING LEWPS AND BOW
ECHO PATTERNS. ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED W WITHIN THE BETTER MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DECENT FORCING IS LIKELY TO RACE E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. COULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY LATE-AFTERNOON WHICH MOST MODELS SUGGEST. THEREAFTER...
DISCONNECTED FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
ENCOUNTERING THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GO DOWNHILL AS IT PRESSES E. MORE STABLE AND
AWAY FROM THE THETA-E RIDGING - INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PA / W NY /
N VT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA AS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS THEY PUSH E.

CONVECTION IS TRICKY TO FORECAST...SO EXPECT CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PENDING UPSTREAM EVENTS.

OTHERWISE...BREAKING OUT LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF
FASTER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING DECENT S-FLOW WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS S/SE-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION FIRING IN CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN PA WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT ALSO SHIFTING EAST.
WE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASING TREND FOR POPS OVERNIGHT.

WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 THE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN
THAT...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG...LI VALUES AROUND ZERO...TOTALS IN THE UPPER 40S ALL SHOW
INSTABILITY. DEEP MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRECIP WATER
VALUES. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH A 50-KNOT CORE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. BUT 30-40 KNOTS LINGERS OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY WILL BE OUR MOST CONFIDENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SO WE WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK
* UNSETTLED WX POSSIBLE SAT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE 08.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CONTINUED OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE MID TERM REMAINS HIGH.
AS NOTED EARLIER...THE ISSUES REALLY BEGIN TO APPEAR UNDER FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
FORMING PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINING
STRENGTH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVE/RIDGE COUPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...SO EXACT TIMING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
QUESTION UNTIL THE WAVES ARE BETTER SAMPLED. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT ECENS MEAN
WHICH SHOULD INCORPORATE MOST TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...REMNANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF -SHRA BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
THROUGH 06Z...BUT GRADUALLY REDUCE THEM THROUGH THE AM HOURS.

WED...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES E FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGESTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. WHICH WILL BE ASSISTED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE THE
REGION WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE
TO THE SE REGAINING STRENGTH...ITS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH FROPA AND LITTLE INSTABILITY THANKS TO A ROBUST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THE DAYTIME THU ESPECIALLY...WITH THE FROPA ITSELF.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...
INITIALLY THIS WEAKENED FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE S OF THE REGION AS
ANOTHER WEAK FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FRI. THE MODEL BLEND
USE SUGGESTS ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
THANKS TO INFLUENCE OF THE SE RIDGE. WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CLOUDINESS TO OVERCOME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE WAINS SOMEWHAT HERE...BUT INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MODELS
INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD WAVE. INITIALLY THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS N...THEN A ROBUST LOW PRES CENTER MAY FORM TO THE
W...PASSING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN
NEW ENGLAND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS N. THIS FEATURE IS
QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH GOOD F-GEN/40+ KT LLJ/AND A VERY DESTABILIZED
WARM SECTOR. PWATS ALSO ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 2.0 INCHES /2 STD
DEVIATIONS/. THIS IS ALL INTERESTING GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW THE WAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO. FOR NOW IT BARES WATCHING AS THIS COULD PROVE
TO A VERY WET/SEVERE PATTERN DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW PRES
FORMATION/TRACK. CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED.

SUN INTO MON...
THE TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE POTENTIALLY STRONG /BY
JUNE STANDARDS/ LOW PRES ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT...BUT SHOULD THE
WAVE BE AS DEEP AS PROGGED...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO
DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. HOW LONG AND WARM WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. BUT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A 582+HPA RIDGE...COULD BE LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY
WARM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

14Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR CIGS. SCT -SHRA TOWARDS MIDDAY DISSIPATING E. A MIX OF
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR W-TERMINALS...ALBEIT LEANING
MAINLY RA/+RA. S-WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS ISSUES
WITH 30-40 KT SW-WINDS 2 KFT AGL.

TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR. SCT SHRA POSSIBLE TSRA. BEST
CHANCE IN THE CT VALLEY AND VICINITY. +RA POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS ESPECIALLY BOS-PVD AND SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA WITH PATCHES OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN +SHRA AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT...WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT FOR SOME
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL
BE SHIFTING TO THE W-SW.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE VFR DOMINATES. WINDS MAINLY
S...ALTHOUGH GRADIENT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES. LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...S-WINDS INCREASING. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS TO NEARLY 30
KTS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED GALE-FORCE GUSTS
WILL IMPACT THE E/SE-INNER WATERS. SEAS BUILD 5-6 FEET WITH WIND
STRESS INTO AFTERNOON. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-6 FEET WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. LEADING THAT WILL
BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 5-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END ON THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WHILE CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE W-SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE SWELL TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE S ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE W ON FRI.
THEY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

827 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOLLOWING LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST NJ. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN WILL CLIP
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC METRO AS IT MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS THAT SEE
THESE SHOWERS WILL SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAIN.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START...AS STRATOCU FIELD
ALREADY OVER MOST OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO ERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
STRONG SEA BREEZE EVENTS WILL UNFOLD AS THE HIGH GIVES
WAY...INCREASING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NJ COAST. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE...WITH FCST GUSTS OF
35-45 KT IN COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT NOT BY
MUCH...AND THINK MOST PEAK GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH AN ISOLD GUST UP TO 40 KT AS WITH OTHER
RECENT EVENTS...AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE FROM NYC EAST.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY WEST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WEST OF NYC.

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AIRPORTS AS THEY INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. BY
LATE DAY...SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS AT 2000 FT
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. W WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AT KSWF...
OTHERWISE VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.FRI...VFR.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

746 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SRN CT THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1049 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SOUTHERN PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD GET
AN ADDED PUSH AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHERN AREAS
EARLIER...AND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS KPHL-KPNE-KBLM
HAVE...FOR THE MOST PART...WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF.

INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE, A STRENGTHENING SRLY SYNOPTIC WIND
AND RISING TEMPS WILL CAUSE CAPES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWERS THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY AND MORE TO THE WEST/NW ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
SRN POCONOS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE HRRR TRENDS.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED
ALTHOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. THE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, THEREFORE BECOMING HUMID.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
JET SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SOLID TO
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INCOMING FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING,
HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING WITH TIME. THIS MAY RESULT
IN ARRIVING STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
SLIDES EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD. WE SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS COOLING ALOFT TAKES
PLACE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING THEN AT
LEAST SOME DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORGANIZATION INCOMING FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER SOME STORMS TO START
THE EVENING AT LEAST IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING WITHIN A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB
AS WELL AS WITH 850MB TEMPS AND DEWS AND IT WAS AN EVEN SPLIT
AT 925MB. THE 500MB TROF LOOKS A BIT BROADER THAN THE NAM HAS AND
ALSO SLOWER. DP/DTING THE GFS IT HAS SLOWED FROM YESTERDAY AND
TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH THE TROF. THE OP GFS
REMAINS FASTER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALSO FASTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS. THIS PACKAGE SLOWS THE GFS DOWN 3-6HRS AND LOOKS FOR
MODEL QPF CONSENSUS TO UNDO ITS WET BIAS. THE END OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS HOT AND MORE HUMID. THE PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EDGING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, SO OUR END OF WEEK MAX TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND IS TO GO MORE WITH PREDICTED MAX TEMPS OFF
OF RELATIVELY LOWER 850S VS THE MORE TORRID 925S.

FOR PCPN CHANCES ON TUESDAY, WE MAY HAVE THE REVERSE TIMING OF TODAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS
IN THE MORNING. WHILE WE ARE GETTING COLDER ALOFT (AND HOLDING OUR OWN
CLOSER TO THE SFC) DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE HAVE PREDICTED NEGATIVE
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE (APPARENTLY
CAA > DPVA). ITS LIKELY THE REASON MODEL QPF LOOKS RATHER
DISJOINTED. STILL PVA USUALLY WORKS BETTER THAN MODEL RH HANDLING
AND OFTEN THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH DEVELOPING A CAPPING INVERSION IN
SUMMER. OVERALL OUR POPS ARE HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. AS PER
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WE HAVE HIGHER POPS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON THAN LATER IN THE DAY. WE ALSO HAVE HIGHER POPS
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND TROF.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL, WE HAVE THE NICE JET STREAK THAT HAS A
HAND IN KEEPING OUR PREDICTED BULK SHEAR NORTH OF 30 KNOTS. PREDICTED
DCAPES ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON RISE TO 1000J. THE GFS`S EML IS STILL
THERE, BUT IS NOW A LATE ARRIVER. IF ONE LOOKS AT OTHER MODELS,
THE COLD POOL IS EVEN A LATER ARRIVER. WITH PREDICTED MIXED LAYER
CAPES NOW BELOW 1000J, ONE HAS TO WONDER IF THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. WBZ DO DROP INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
HEIGHT FOR HAIL, BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE, RIGHT NOW IT
WOULD BE SMALL IF IT OCCURS. MAX TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO HIGHER STAT
GUIDANCE.

WE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY EVENING AS PER SOME LEFTOVER STABILITY AND MODELING TREND
OF A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE TROF`S VORT MAX AND OVERALL SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MOVING OF THE COLD FRONT.

COMPLETE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY. BORDERLINE TOO AS TO
HOW MUCH CU WILL BE AROUND AS THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BEING IN REACH WHILE THE WRF-NMMB BARELY DOES. THE
GFS AND WRF HAVE BEEN PLAYING LEAP FROG WITH THEIR THERMAL FIELDS
WITH TODAY THE WRF`S TURN TO BE THE HOT MODEL FOR WED. HERE WE
USED THE GFS`S RAW 925S AND 2M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS EDGING CLOSER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
MODELS HAVE REMNANT PCPN POSSIBLY GETTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY
MORNING. WITHOUT PREDICTED PVA AND DISAPPEARING OMEGA, WE KEPT IT DRY.

THE MODEL TREND IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME CLOSER OR INTO OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY RETREATING FARTHER NORTH. THIS
DOES ADD A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE HEAT POTENTIAL AND ALSO ADDS A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED
UP POPS IN TERMS OF GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT AND OVERALL VALUES.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT OF BANKING A HOT AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IN SPITE OF THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY, THE UPSIDE POTENTIAL
IS THERE AND ITS NOT EXACTLY FISHING IN A BARREL EXPECTING A
THUNDERSTORM TO SAVE THE MAX TEMP DAY. SO WE UPPED MAX TEMPS A BIT
OVER WPC AND STAT GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
BRINK OF URBANIZED AREAS HEAT RELATED HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WANT TO MAKE SURE
THIS SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL TREND DOES NOT CONTINUE AND THAT
RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESSES FOR 90S (1420 YDA IN THE MIDWEST)
DONT PERSIST BEFORE COMMITTING MENTION TO THE HWO OR BEYOND.
LASTLY DEW POINTS IN JUNE DO FIND WAYS TO DROP IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS THIS IS THE NEXT LEVEL HIGHER FROM LATE MAY`S WARM
SPELL AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING MORE INTENTLY AS WE GET ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER BREAK FROM
THE HEAT FOLLOWING THE CFP ON OR ABOUT SATURDAY. WE USED WPC
GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH A CEILING AROUND 5000 FEET THAT SHOULD
SCATTERED OUT AT TIMES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT MIDDAY
ONWARD. SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS EARLY, THEN
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES
TO THE WEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR WEST. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS AT KRDG AND KABE, AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE CARRY A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER MVFR/IFR WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ORGANIZED LINE
FROM THE WEST MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE KTTN TO KILG
CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG AND CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL AS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR AT OTHER TIMES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS NORTH ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER CHANCES NORTH.

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE BETTER MIXING ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SINCE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING HIGHER GUSTS NEARSHORE, WE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY BUT EXTENDED IT THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTS MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN INTO TUESDAY DAY. WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT
ABOUT SEAS THAN WINDS AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. NEVERTHELESS, AN EVENING EXTENSION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE WATERS,
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES. THIS IS BASED ON A DECENT
LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING, WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOME
NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/PO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN KILX CWA AND THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TODAY. LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME STEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO FEATURE A MORE DISTINCT WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MCS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST IL
INTO MID MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE
IN SOUTHEAST IL AT 3 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THE MORNING AND LINGER LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL. THEN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL. SPC HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WARM HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER
EASTERN IL MAINLY UP UNTIL SUNSET. DIRUNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DISSIPATES OR SHIFTS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF
IL BY SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH GALESBURG BEING THE
COOLEST NEAR 60F. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM IL.
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (WARMEST
IN SW CWA). DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SO NOT TOO
HUMID OF A DAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (COOLEST IN EASTERN IL).

A NORTHERNS STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WED AND DRIVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY WED
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH HAVE SOME INSTABLITY WITH CAPES OF 1000
J/KG. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM I-
72 NORTH WED INTO WED EVENING AND SPC EVEN HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS DURING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
VERY WARM WED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F AND GETTING MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NORTHERN IL THU WITH
CENTRAL/SE IL IN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO GIVE CENTRAL IL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
FROM I-74 NORTH. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 90F
IN SOUTHEAST IL.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE AND OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO IL. THIS
TO PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS FRI RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE
UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND LESS OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE READINGS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING KDEC-KCMI EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...WHILE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AFFECT AT KSPI-KPIA-KBMI.
RESULTING CONDITIONS GENERALLY IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 13Z-14Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE GENERAL CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
TAFS...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCE FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
OR WORSE POSSIBLE. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. WINDS S-SW 5-10
KTS BECOMING W 10-12 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS
DECREASING AND TURNING WNW AFTER 00Z.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

RADAR MOSAIC AT 330 AM SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
ILLINOIS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION MOVES
MAINLY EASTWARD BUT ALSO SAGS SOUTH WITH TIME.

FOR TODAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND THERE IS
AN INDICATION THAT A SURFACE WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING IT
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST THINK THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE NOT CLIMBED AS HIGH AS MODELS WERE
PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE AREA THINK THE BIG HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD BE BEHIND US.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IS LOW ENOUGH TO DROP THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL STILL BE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TODAY BUT IT SHOULD WANE
AS ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER AND CONTINUED RAINFALL AROUND KEEPS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL RISK IS PRETTY LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD CONTINUED TO CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 6Z. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE FRONT WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SO NOT SURE THAT IT
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT MODELS
HAVE A LITTLE FASTER/STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT SO INCLUDED SOME LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A MOS AVERAGE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS THOUGH WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE 18C.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES AGREEING
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC
UPPER FLOW. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND IS NOT GREAT. PREFER NOT TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WHICH HAS POPS ALL
PERIODS BUT MAINLY DURING THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR VARIOUS SHORT WAVES...THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OVER TOP AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S PER REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CHAOTIC CEILINGS/WINDS THIS MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING
RAIN SHIELD. WINDS HAVE LARGELY REVERTED TO W/SW AT AROUND 10KTS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST. EXPECT SLOW VEERING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOWER IN SOME AREAS...WILL SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. REORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
WELL...DELAYING VCTS MENTION LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...AND TRAILING
UPPER WAVE SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SOLID RAIN WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AT ALL BUT LAF. EVEN AT
LAF...THERE WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FAIRLY CLOSE
BY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON TIMING...WITH A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING IT DOWN. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SOLID RAIN AT IND...HUF AND BMG AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LAF WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF ALL THE TERMINALS...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. SO...WILL CARRY VCSH AT LAF THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN
AFTER 19Z. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 16Z WITH VCTS
AFTER 19Z. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FROM VFR AC TO MVFR
CUMULONIMBUS OR NIMBOSTRATUS. PREFER TO GO PESSIMISTIC UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. BRIEF CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR OR WORSE STRATOCU LIKELY FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TO 12 KNOTS AND LESS THAN 9
KNOTS AFTER 01Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1024 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING
NORTHEAST AS THE OVERALL LINE SHIFTS EAST. CURRENTLY...CLOUD
COVER AND MID MORNING CONDITIONS ARE KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY PRETTY
TAME. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
FOR THIS EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS LINE
BEGINNING TO CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT TO
FOLLOW IT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...THERE WILL BE
A GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT...HENCE WHY
SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK AND LOWERED THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KY. THIS ALSO
LEAD TO A LESS CERTAINTY OF A HAIL THREAT AND FOR THE UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL SEVERE MENTION TO THE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A NEW ZFP HAS
BEEN SENT OUT ALONG WITH THE GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

READJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HAS SLOWED UP AND IS JUST INCHING SOUTHWARD NOW. ITS
JUST ABOUT TO CROSS INTO FLEMING COUNTY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP IS SPEEDING UP ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT NO NEED
TO ADJUST ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS ONSET SHOULD
STILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND TODAY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. THUS...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS INDIANA...BUT HAS SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WITH NORTH WINDS INTERSECTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SEGMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WON`T HAVE THE SAME
CONVERGENCE AS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THUS...NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
MUCH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
MORNING...BUT WE HAVE NOTED SOME WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOPS
UPSTREAM...SUGGESTING THE CLOUDS MAY GIVE WAY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
A KEY FACTOR TODAY...AS ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO
DESTABILIZE...AND BUILD INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HELP TO
FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTS SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH GOOD DYNAMICS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THUS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A DECENT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SEEING SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO WE CAN DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER...ASSUMING
THIS HAPPENS...HERE IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT... BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
SUPPORTING MORE LINEAR CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE LOW
LEVEL (0-3KM) SHEAR COMPONENT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR WILL BE LINE
NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR QLCS TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AND BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 10KFT...WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH...BUT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD...LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT COLD
FRONT MAY LAG BEHIND AND MAY NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
THUS...THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A POP UP THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE TRICKY...AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS (IF ANY) WE SEE
POSTFRONTAL. FOR NOW...GOING TO GO MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 80
AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE AXIS OF A TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THAT TIME... A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE A BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN US
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE NEARING THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE INITIAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US SOUTH TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT ON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A
BIT BECOMING CENTERED CLOSER TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO OUR NORTHERN MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALIGNED
WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KY FROM THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE...BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ROCKIES.

DRIER AIR WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THU.
THEN... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WHETHER OR
NOT THERE IS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT NIGHT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL ZONE IS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD COME ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL RANGES MAY BE
LIMITED LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE ARE SOME BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. FIRST...WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION SO
HAVE NARROWED IN THE TIME RANGE IN THE TAFS WITH A 3 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS...A PERIOD
OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THESE ISSUES...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEPART AND WEAKEN...AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1024 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
DISSIPATING ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN CREOLE AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. THIS BOUNDARY
UNDOUBTLY WILL SETUP MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS FORESHADOWED BY THE HRRR
REFLECTIVTY FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED TODAY. ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE
ALSO APPEAR TO PICK UP ON THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDING FORECASTS ALONG WITH THIS MORNINGS LCH
SOUNDING SHOW PW`S AT 1.83" PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASING TO
NEAR 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA WHICH I HAVE UPDATED INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO HIT
FORECAST HIGHS. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZONE FOECAST PACKAGE FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
08/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME
LT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW ISLTD SHRA DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR LCH/LFT/ARA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SCT DURING THE AFTN AREAWIDE BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO WARRANT MORE THAN A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME. SWLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT AND SCT CONVECTION TODAY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WEATHER PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK LOOK
LIKE THIS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND SURFACE IS
LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FINALLY...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE
DATA SHOWS POOLING OF VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.4 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE INCREASE AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE DECREASE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING THE SURFACE TROF NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP DECENT
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NORMAL JUNE PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES...AND THESE VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EXCEED THIS VALUE.

THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE LESS INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NOTED...AND SURFACE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS BEST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE UPPED TO CHANCE FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH END CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE ONE OVER OLD MEXICO TO PROVIDE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALSO...THE LEFT OVER SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND MESO SCALE OUTFLOWS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON
THESE DAYS WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT SHIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE TROF WILL
FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE STRONGER
AND DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A CONNECTION TO TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES SURGING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A LIKELIHOOD OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOWER PRESSURES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE MET BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS GULF MOISTURE...THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 72 91 72 / 30 20 50 30
LCH 92 75 91 74 / 40 10 40 30
LFT 92 74 90 73 / 40 20 50 30
BPT 93 74 92 73 / 30 10 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

800 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WAS IN PLACE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
OBSERVED VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED GENERALLY TO 3 TO 5 MILES DUE
TO A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE OF 1.6 INCHES. WITH FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL ERODE
THIS INVERSION.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW ECHOS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING. 11Z
HRRR HAS TRIED TO CAPTURED THIS AND IT ISN`T BAD IN ITS
REPRESENTATION. BASED ON THE HRRR AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF
ONLY 84...WE SHOULD SEE MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 16600 FEET AND A 500MB
TEMPERATURE AROUND -5C. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS JUST ABOVE THE 950 J/KG
THRESHOLD SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. MEAN WIND IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER IS 3 KNOTS SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND A PEAK WIND SPEED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OF 44 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 35800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.5 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND BEFORE BURSTING NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE CAUSEWAY OVER
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 28 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. TOTAL TIME
OF THE BALLOON`S ASCENT WAS 106 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

SHORT TERM...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE THE TEXAS UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT WESTWARD...BUT
THAT MOVEMENT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED BY NOW TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REACHING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER AREAL COVERAGE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. 08/00Z LIX SOUNDING HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES...INCREASING TO 1.85 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING
IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND REMAINING IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 80S IS REACHED. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT DOWNBURST
WINDS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TODAY...THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A DOWNTURN IN
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS UNTIL THE MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT A COASTAL AIRPORT OR TWO
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO MAY ADD A VICINITY SHRA TO A FEW TAFS BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AIRPORTS WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES ADDING MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL START TO BECOME PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 1 FOOT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND TENDENCY FOR LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND PLAINS REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 71 89 71 / 30 30 60 40
BTR 92 73 90 73 / 30 30 50 30
ASD 91 75 88 74 / 30 20 40 30
MSY 90 76 88 75 / 30 20 40 30
GPT 90 76 87 75 / 30 20 40 30
PQL 90 74 87 73 / 30 20 40 30

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

733 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS
EARLY TODAY AT CMX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW STEADY IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
CONCERT WITH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHRA
WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TS
MAINLY AT THESE TWO SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF
SITES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1016 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST THEN WEAKENS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID
MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THE INLAND
THREAT...ALBEIT SMALL...STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CATALYST SHOULD BE THE GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WELL TO THE
WEST. SEA BREEZE WILL PLAY A ROLE AS WELL. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A DETERMINATION AFTER ALL
OF THE 1200 UTC GUIDANCE ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BEFORE DECAYING ON WED. THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT REACH THE
AREA AND INSTEAD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE TUE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH HELPS MASK THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE PLENTY OF CONVECTION. FURTHER AIDING CONVECTION
WILL BE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANY LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE CONVECTION. DCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 1000J/KG
SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BE ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN BY WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF. SUBTLE HEIGHT INCREASES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND 5H
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALONG WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL DRYING MAKE A GOOD
ARGUMENT AGAINST CARRY POP HIGHER THAN LOW CHC SO WILL TREND WED
POP FORECAST DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE EXPANDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH
REMAINS OF WASHED OUT FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING THU MAY GENERATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOW THE SIGNS
OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. IT MAY BE THAT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT ENDS UP QUITE WEAK.

MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FRI THROUGH SAT WITH 500
TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO. DESPITE THIS WARMING AND LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING. IN
FACT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START CLIMBING LATE IN THE
PERIOD...PEAKING AT OVER 2 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS OF 18 TO
20C SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S BUT DO WONDER A LITTLE
ABOUT POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTION BUT NOT SOLD THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP FRI THROUGH SUN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 TEMPS. IN ADDITION THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SEEMS QUITE LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW CU/SC CLOUDS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HEATING BEGINS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TEMPO MVFR CIGS BUT THINK CIGS WILL BE LOW VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MAINLY JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE S-SSW TODAY AROUND
10KT WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO
15-20KT AS INLAND TEMPS MAX OUT. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AFTER 01-03Z THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN 5-8 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY AFFECT INLAND TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR EACH DAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

VEERING WINDS FROM ESE-SSE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE COAST SLIPS OFFSHORE...AND A RETURN
WIND FLOW IS FORMED. INSHORE GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON DURING HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEAS AROUND 3 FEET TODAY IN A MIX OF 2-3 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S CHOP. NO TSTMS OR
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WIND FIELD DURING THE PERIOD.
APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENS INTO WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT
WHICH RESULTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT DROP
TO 2 TO 3 FT WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
REMAINS THE KEY FEATURE THROUGH FRI. THE LACK OF ANY OTHER
NOTEWORTHY SURFACE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED NEARSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

635 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WASH OUT AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...

STRATUS IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST MODELS PROJECTED THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD STILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT...GUSTING TO 15-
20KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT KGSO AND KINT AFTER 22Z AND A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND TO THE EAST TOWARD KRDU/KRWI/KFAY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE.

OUTLOOK... SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTER NC) AND THEN MAINLY JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1119 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POP GRIDS USING A MIX OF HRRR AND 12Z
NAM. TRIED TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED POPS...FIRST WITH THE
LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CWA...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
TIED TO THE UPPER VORT MAX FOR LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION TO WEATHER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEATING TODAY. SOME OF THESES
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS CAPE AND MOISTURE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT. FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING...DYNAMIC FORCING ALSO DEPARTS
LEAVING ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND A COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS DROPPING IN
THE 4-6C RANGE. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
STALL THERE...WELL NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. KEEP THE POPS
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE PBZ CWA
BORDER.

AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C...SUGGESTING SURFACE READINGS
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE 90F MARK. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. IF RAINFALL COVERAGE/AMOUNTS ARE NOT
VERY GOOD TODAY...THE DRY GROUND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEATING
REQUIRING HIGHER VALUES IN THE MAX FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PATTERN WILL FEATURE SERIES OF
WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN...IT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS TODAY.
MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THEM. MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
ON TODAY.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1117 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT VERY CLOSE TO THE HIRESW ARW AND NMM FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS SITUATION
WELL AND THE HRRR HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO PUT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN.

DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT FOR ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. KILN
SOUNDING INDICATED PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
DUE TO THIS PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND
OR IS VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
AND THEREFORE WITH SOME MIXING SOME OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH HAVE BEEN SEEN DUE TO THIS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT STILL
EXISTS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARILY THREAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR STORM WITH HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS TO OUR WEST EARLIER
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY FIZZLED. THERE IS REDEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
ONGOING TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE.
HIGH RES MODELS CAPTURED THE INITIAL TREND OF THE WEAKENING OF THE
LINE PRETTY WELL BUT HAVE PERFORMED POORLY AS WHAT TO DO WITH THE
LINE ONCE IT WEAKENED. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR LOUISVILLE
ARE PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL APPROACH KCVG/ KLUK
BETWEEN 730 - 830 AM. COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN PWATS NEARING 1.80" AND K INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
30S THIS MAKES SENSE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS TO COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TUESDAY
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTICULAR AT THE NORMAL
PROBLEM SITE OF KLUK. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A HINT OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

931 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO FILL IN SOME. HAVE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA. NW OHIO
SHOULD DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

ORIGINAL...RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING TOWARDS/INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST HOWEVER STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. PRECIP ACTUALLY SHRINKING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH RUC SHOWS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO EXPAND AGAIN INTO THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH CAT POPS MOST AREAS. HIGH WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD SPROUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY BUT
WEDNESDAY BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AS DEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
CONTINUITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THURSDAY
BEGINNING TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY ALL
SITES ARE VFR. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS OHIO. TIMING OF THE -RA AND VCSH/TS IN THE TAFS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED FINETUNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHOWERS
EVOLVE.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED NON-VFR TUE WITH BR. NON-VFR AGAIN ON WED AND
FRI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

636 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING
ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE TO THE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND
AGAIN LATER ON FRIDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

654 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

BULK OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA NOW.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE...AND FAR SW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
A LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING
A BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1043 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADD ISOLD CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...PLUS TEMPS ARE STILL COLD
ALOFT OVER THAT REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A FEW STUBBORN LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AM. THE MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT
HOWEVER. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT MIXING. AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MOST PART WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...HOWEVER PROFILES INDICATE
SOME ELEVATED SHALLOW/SKINNY CAPE...SUGGESTING SOME HIGH BASED CU.

700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND +10C BY TUESDAY...WITH BUFKIT
PROFILES MIXING TO AROUND THAT HEIGHT. MIXED DOWN TEMPERATURES YIELD
READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...THOUGH PROFILES AGAIN INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED CAPE/THUNDER. WILL ALSO SEE A SURFACE TROF PASS THROUGH THE
CWA MID DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN MIXING.

A COOLER...CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL UNDER CUT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FOR
WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW
THAT TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REMAIN WITH MODELS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA DROPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WAA SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE FAR NORTHERN CWA MAYBE RECEIVING LESS
RAINFALL. THE GFS HAD LESS QPF THAN THE EC. KEPT WITH THE HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD DRY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION WAS SHOWN TO CLOSE OFF AND NOW LIFT INTO AND ACROSS
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SUNDAY MAY
END UP BEING DRY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1036 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHOWERS IS LOCATED FROM MACON COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
TO WAYNE COUNTY. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THROUGH 18Z PER THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS. BUMPED POPS UP ON THE PLATEAU PRIOR TO 18Z FOR THIS LINE AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO BUMPED UP HIGHS ON THE PLATEAU WITH
QUICK WARMING THIS MORNING DUE FULL SUN.

AS FAR AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE THIS
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO AOB 30 KTS BY
21Z. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY
THAT TIME WITH SFC BOUNDARY JUST PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE CWA. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN BREAKING OUT DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD CAPE VALUES TO 1500 J/KG OR LESS AND NOT
FAVOR A LARGE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL REPORT COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
BUT WBZ HEIGHT WAS 10.7 KFT ON 12Z OHX SOUNDING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO ANY ENHANCED SHEAR
WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION. IF
CONVECTION IS SCATTERED PER HRRR THEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE ISSUE.

REAGAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH ISO SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD THRU THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ALSO MOVED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FURTHER S ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE. TWEAKED HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1020 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH KICKING
OFF SOME SHRA FROM MKE TO WALWORTH COUNTIES. RATHER QUIET UPSTREAM
FOR NOW. HOWEVER MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA AS MID LEVELS COOL WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN BY MID
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK RIDGING TAKES HOLD. RENEWED WAA
ON TUESDAY PROGGD TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NRN WI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OVERALL...IT SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. COULD SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING MAX HEATING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY STRONGER...AND HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...OR POSSIBLY LARGER. THE PEAK ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 15 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WELL WITH SUNSET.

MARINE...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND POINT SOUTH TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO 22-24KTS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

550 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK DECAYING OR STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
540 PM UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 278 WAS EXPANDED A TIER EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NJ, AND BUCKS, MONTGOMERY AND CHESTER
COUNTIES IN PA. WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO ORAGANIZE INTO A LINE. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
LONG INTO THE EVENING THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED
AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
THE SITUATION AND COORDINATE WITH SPC IF CONVECTIVE WATCHES ARE
NEEDED FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 278 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THRU 10 PM. WE ARE WATCHING SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS BACK TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. WE AREA ALSO
WATCHING MORE STORMS ORGANIZING BACK INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA
THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET).

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ERUPTING ACROSS NY/PA AND FURTHER SW THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A DECENT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE (3PM - 5PM) OVER THE DELMARVA AND
LOWER DEL VALLEY. POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE N
TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CHC ACROSS THE S. GUSTY WINDS/LOCAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S S/E.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TUESDAYS WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE SFC FRONT
WASHES OUT. POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER N THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH-OUT. THERE COULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVEL NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A RESULT, KNOCKING A LITTLE OFF THE
HEAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE IT`S SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AS WELL. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY WITH THE FURTHER
NORTH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND THE ECMWF BEING
COOLER. FOR NOW WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO POORER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS 20Z/21Z OVER THE DEL VALLEY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO TEMPO THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS FOR NOW WITH
LOW/MED CONFID. OF OCCURRENCE. IT COULD END UP BEING MORE TSTMS...SO
AMDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER (THAN
LATE AFTERNOON) AND THE CHC FOR THUNDER GOOD WITH THE FRONT GETTING
CLOSER. TRIED TO TIME THE TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE HRRR MODEL WITH ITS
SOLUTION LOOKING REASONABLE. BEHIND THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW CIGS (MVFR) POSSIBLE AND PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUE AFTER 13/14Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CHOP. SCA FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS
DO NOT SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.

OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS AROUND FOUR FEET TUESDAY EVENING, SCA EXTENSION UNLIKELY ATTM.
SEAS THEN AROUND THREE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/99
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/99
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/99
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/99
RIP CURRENTS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

420 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 278 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THRU 10 PM. WE ARE WATCHING SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS BACK TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. WE AREA ALSO
WATCHING MORE STORMS ORGANIZING BACK INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA
THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET).

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/99
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/99
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/99
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/99
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

340 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ERUPTING ACROSS NY/PA AND FURTHER SW THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A DECENT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE (3PM - 5PM) OVER THE DELMARVA AND
LOWER DEL VALLEY. POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE N
TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CHC ACROSS THE S. GUSTY WINDS/LOCAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S S/E.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CHOP. SCA FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS
DO NOT SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/LAGUARDIA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/LAGUARDIA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/LAGUARDIA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/LAGUARDIA
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

352 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FL PENINSULA...DEFINED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. LARGE REGION OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS
EXPANDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/FL EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST ZONE OF DRY AIR IS STILL TO OUR
EAST/NE...THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ABOVE 600MB. THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
IS EVIDENT WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 600-500MB. THE
DRYING AROUND 500MB IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
IN THAT ZONE OF THE TROP NOW OF THE MAGNITUDE AROUND 40C. THE
SUMMATION OF THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE/MORE HOSTILE COLUMN TOWARD
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP ALL STORMS DOWN...BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 600MB WILL
CERTAINLY BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS
THROUGH ENTRAINMENT...AND LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MID
TROP UNDER 6C/KM SUGGEST OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE KEPT IN
CHECK.

OK...SO ALOFT IT IS RATHER NEGATIVE. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT
CHANCE POPS ARE NECESSARY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...BECAUSE CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS MORE CLIMO FAVORED FOR WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE STORMS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS WEAK...BUT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR ZONES IN A
LIGHT EAST/SE 1000-700MB FLOW REGIME. THIS REGIME IS TYPICALLY ONE
OF OUR MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERNS (GIVEN A TYPICAL LESS
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT)...DUE TO ITS MORE OPPOSING AND NORMAL
(RIGHT ANGLE) OF APPROACH TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND THUS
TENDENCY TO FOCUS GREATER CONVERGENCE FOR UPDRAFT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY STRUGGLE... WOULD STILL EXPECT A FEW
OF THE CONVECTIVE COLUMNS TO REACH MATURITY. ALTHOUGH...STORM
LIFE-CYCLE MAY BE SHORTER THAN NORMAL THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE
SIGNIFICANT MID- LEVEL ENTRAINMENT WILL WORK NEGATIVELY AGAINST
THE UPDRAFTS THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL DELIVER
THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR. UNTIL THEN A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR
ZONES (POLK/HIGHLANDS)...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/
OR MORE LIKELY EARLY EVENING THAT THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY. IT WILL BE AT THIS
TIME THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REACH THRESHOLDS
TO SUPPORT BETTER CONVECTIVE COLUMNS INTO THE MID-LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES AFTER 21Z WILL THEN MAXIMIZE WITH 40-50% THROUGH A NARROW
ZONES ALONG I-75. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD 20-30% FURTHER
EAST INTO THE INTERIOR...AND FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE COAST (BEHIND
THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY). SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MIGRATE BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS
ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL MIGRATION WESTWARD TOWARD
SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE LAST FEW HRRR
RUNS HAS BEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENTUAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF PASCO/HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES IN THE MODEL ENVIRONMENT ARE UPWARDS
OF 14-15M/S...WHICH IS ROBUST FOR SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. WILL
SIMPLY HAVE TO WATCH...BUT DESPITE THE DRY AIR ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS DOES SEEM LIKE IT MAY STILL
EXIST.

FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS THAT DO REACH FULL MATURITY...THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES MAY
SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE WET
MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO BRIEFLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS AROUND 50KTS. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN RADAR OPERATIONS
LATER TODAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...WE SEE A SYNOPTIC CHANGE OCCUR AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOST NWP MEMBERS SHOW THE DRIEST OF
THE AIR ALOFT RETREATING EASTWARD AND LEAVING OUR COLUMN MORE
FAVORABLE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST STORM CHANGES SHIFTING TO OUR INLAND
ZONES...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW PUSHES THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE 60-70% ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR...AND DECREASE TO AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES. IN
FACT...THE 30% AT THE COAST IS ONLY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASES EVEN MORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY WITHIN THE POST SEA BREEZE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT. THIS
THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION PHILOSOPHY FOR TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SEEM
REASONABLE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THU THEN THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN END GETS
SHUNTED WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK END AND DOMINATES
THE GULF REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH FROM THE
ATLANTIC...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...GRADUALLY LIFTS TO NORTHERN
FL BY LATE FRI THEN MEANDERS ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GA/FL LINE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AND THEN TRENDING DOWN AND SHIFTING NORTH THU.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE GULF. FOR FRI THROUGH MON THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOME BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE TREKS NORTH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. THIS MAY IMPEDE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND ALSO RESULT IN ROBUST WINDS ON THE GULF. FOR THIS
FORECAST HAVE KEPT WINDS AT OR BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN GENERALLY AT JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
SEA BREEZE HAS SHIFTED WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST...AND
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR (KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW). SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER
22Z. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. NO SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG
ISSUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO A
POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST HIGHER ASSOCIATED WITH TYPICAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY SHIFTING THE LARGE SCALE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
THEN BE MOST LIKELY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOG IMPACT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND IS LIKELY ACROSS OPEN FIELDS
IN SPOTS THAT SEE LATE DAY RAINFALL...BUT IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 88 / 30 30 20 60
FMY 73 90 74 89 / 40 40 40 50
GIF 73 91 73 90 / 30 60 30 60
SRQ 74 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 60
BKV 70 91 70 89 / 40 30 20 60
SPG 77 88 77 86 / 20 30 20 60

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

320 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI THROUGH 19Z BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND PUSHING EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI AS
THIS WAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON WED AND DRIVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH HAVE SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 J/KG. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM I- 72 NORTH WED INTO WED EVENING AND SPC EVEN HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. VERY WARM WED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F AND GETTING
MORE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

158 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY
BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
FOLLOWING THIS...RIDGING WILL RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM
WESTERN IOWA...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...UP INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
REGIONAL BLEND SUPPORTS THIS PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FEED FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FLOWING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. THIS FEED LOOKS TO ORIGINATE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT RECENTLY IMPACTED
THE BAJA PENINSULA OFF OF MEXICO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.

INITIALIZATION HANDLES THE TEMPERATURES WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN COOL OFF TO START THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH EXPECTATION THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 4KFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBMG AND KIND BOTH LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DRY WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING...LIKELY SPARKING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CARRY A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03-04Z. BEYOND THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR FOG
LATE AT ALL BUT KIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY TUESDAY WITH
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT UP TO 10KTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MMB/RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S PER REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

351 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS AND THEN HI RES MODELS HAVE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. BASED UPON TRENDS...IT SEEMS
THIS EARLIER LINE HAS REAPED A BUNCH OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER.
HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z.

WITH A BIT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR WOULD
SUGGEST THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN NEARLY
WASHING OUT ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME
AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT ENOUGH AND SLIDES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RATHER
UNREMARKABLE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY WHILE OTHER WEAK BATCHES
SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE - INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONGEST IN THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL BRUSH PAST THE STATE AND
SOME BETTER ENERGY CLUSTERS MAY MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST
KENTUCKY TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS NORTHERN WAVE...THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WOULD THEN
FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT LIKELY NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BENEATH IT. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT...A BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY AT MID WEEK WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS AND RATHER WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME AIR
MASS CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH...AS A COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS NEARBY...LIKELY HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE UPON US THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH RELIEF
OFFERED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EXPECT TWO SEPARATE LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
SJS...JKL...AND LOZ WILL EXPERIENCE SOME BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21Z WITH THE LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS. AFTER THIS...A SECOND
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z BRINGING TAF
SITES DOWN TO FIELD MINS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES BUT WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AS WELL.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN TOMORROW
MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEVERE BUT MAINLY DEPENDENT UPON SOME GOOD INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AND SENT TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

214 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

140 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...
A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST MINIMUM CLOUD
DECKS AT AROUND 3KFT. THIS SHOULDN`T CHANGE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BUT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS.
COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SUCH THAT VCTS WILL BE
APPROPRIATE RATHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP. MOST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
SLOW NE MOVEMENT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 89 71 86 / 30 60 40 60
BTR 73 90 73 87 / 30 50 30 60
ASD 75 88 74 86 / 20 40 30 60
MSY 76 88 75 87 / 20 40 30 60
GPT 76 87 75 86 / 20 40 30 50
PQL 74 87 73 86 / 20 40 30 50

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND SAW AS
HEATING RAISES THE CEILING TO VFR FROM MVFR. INSTABILITY AND LAKE
BREEZE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE. COULD BE SOME FOG FOR
CMX LATER TONIGHT AND PUT MVFR CIGS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

236 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE RUNS INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RESIDES IN
THE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE FRONT RANGE
OF ALBERTA.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... THE SHORTWAVE UP NORTH WILL
LATCH ONTO A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER AND PUSH IT FORWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPIKE
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
THE FRONTS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST
MODELS REMAIN DRY A FEW INCLUDING THE HRRR AND CMC REGIONAL
GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS ON THIS TROUGH/FRONT OVER HILL AND
BLAINE COUNTY AND MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE ABOVE 500 MB TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER... THEY ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY
THICK YET WEAK LAYER OF INVERSION FROM 700 TO 500 MB THAT MUST
FIRST BE OVERPOWERED TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. THE TROUGHS
PASSAGE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A PERTURBANCE TO DO THIS. THEREFORE
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FROM NOTHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WILL
STABILIZE OUT THE SURFACE LAYER. BUT THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY SHRUG OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD BE DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. MEANWHILE... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT... THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE BLUNTED AND ZONAL FLOW WILL
OPEN UP A LANE THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR NEW SHORTWAVES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH WILL SET
UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL OVERRUN IT ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO EXPAND AND MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ACT TO MOISTEN A VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER.

SEVERE POSSIBLE... CONFIDENCE LOW... MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS
RAIN SHOWERS SHUTTING OFF AROUND MID DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND
A CLEAR AIR DRY SLOT FORMING DUE TO A INCOMING JET. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO WARM... AT WHICH POINT
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FORM SEVERE
CELLS. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO ENTIRELY HANGS ON A JET ENTERING AND A
CLEAR AIR OPENING BEING IN THE CORRECT TIME AND PLACE. MORE OFTEN
THAN NOT JETS ARE OFF IN TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT IN THE MODELS... HENCE LOW CONFIDENCE.

GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE AGAIN TODAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT QUITE CAN/T BE WORKED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z EC WANTS TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT
HANGING AROUND. EC SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS SO
LOWERED POPS A BIT.

OTHERWISE...COULD GET INTERESTING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SENDS A DISTURBANCE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA OVER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A TROF DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY...PHASING WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE
LEE TROF IN CENTRAL MONTANA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO HAVE SOME POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EXTENT OF
THE STORMS.

THIS UPPER WAVE WINDS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOLER AIRMASS OVER MONTANA FOR
SUNDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND TO THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EBERT

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THEY MAY
CREATE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS
TUESDAY. TFJ

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A RISE IN CREEK LEVELS
IN PETROLEUM COUNTY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE FLATWILLOW
CREEK HAS HAD A SLOW DECREASE AND THUS THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING.

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1229 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT...THIS WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD
WEATHER-WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

242 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN,
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, TO THE OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN TREND WARMER FROM MID
WEEK ONWARD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1232 PM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MENTION SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF DEVELOPING STORMS
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
YORK IN FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, ENOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM SHEAR AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LIKELY KEEP THIS LINE PROGRESSING
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST VERMONT. LATEST HI-RES CAM
OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 14Z HRRR DEPICT BEST BOWING-TYPE STRUCTURE
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF RUTLAND COUNTY IN THE 4-5 PM TIME FRAME. AS
A RESULT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR STORMS/GUSTY WINDS IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THINKING ABOVE AND LATEST UPDATED SWODY1 OUTPUT FROM THE
STORM PREDCITION CENTER. REST OF FORECAST IN REGARD TO POPS/TEMPS
ETC STILL REASONABLY ON TRACK, SO ONLY NOMINAL/NOISE LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THESE DATASETS AT THE NOONTIME HOUR.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE 700 MB TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO JUST TO OUT IMMEDIATE WEST OF NEW
YORK WHICH WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THUS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BECOME OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER
RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

THEN INTO TUESDAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH BRINGING A SECOND
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS BURST OF ENERGY WILL
IMPACT MAINLY THE GREENS EASTWARD SO THAT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
GETS THEIR FAIR SHOT AT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
EVENT. USING A BLENDED APPROACH I USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH THE NAM/WRF/SREF WHICH LEAD TO A
SLIGHT REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE INDIVIDUAL RUNS FROM THE CMC AND
THE GFS. THE NET RESULT OF THAT IS THE AREA WIDE FOR THE 48 HOUR
EVENT OUR STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2.5 INCHES WITH AN
ISOLATED 3" INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.

WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY...MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TAF
SITES. THIS LINE WILL ENTER SLK BTWN 18Z-20Z...RUT/MPV/BTV BTWN
19Z-22Z...AND EXITING OUR TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SFC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RUTLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED MVFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES BTWN 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AT SLK AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MPV...EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT TIMES THRU 12Z TUES. BREEZY SFC
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS PERIODS OF RAIN IMPACT OUR TAF SITES
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHIFT TO OUR EAST. STILL
ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IN AND
AROUND STORMS THRU THIS AFTN. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 4 AM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
ON HOURLY TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT
TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS
NEARING THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY, THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECTS THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE EARLY THEN
SUBSIDING WITH CHOPPY WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5
FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN
EXPOSURES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...BTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

142 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE 700 MB TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO JUST TO OUT IMMEDIATE WEST OF NEW
YORK WHICH WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THUS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BECOME OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER
RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL AND IF IT WERE NOT FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WE COULD SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HAVE KEPT READINGS MORE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80. SPEAKING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING TAKES PLACE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLE DRYING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY...MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TAF
SITES. THIS LINE WILL ENTER SLK BTWN 18Z-20Z...RUT/MPV/BTV BTWN
19Z-22Z...AND EXITING OUR TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SFC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RUTLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED MVFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES BTWN 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AT SLK AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MPV...EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT TIMES THRU 12Z TUES. BREEZY SFC
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS PERIODS OF RAIN IMPACT OUR TAF SITES
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHIFT TO OUR EAST. STILL
ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IN AND
AROUND STORMS THRU THIS AFTN. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION.

.MARINE...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINING
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE. WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH THE LOW 40S. THE HIGH WINDS WILL CAUSE CHOPPY
WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5 FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND
IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN EXPOSURES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1232 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...19Z AND 02Z...AND AFTER 10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 16Z WITH
40 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 2000 FEET. THESE WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 16Z WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

148 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDAY. LIMITED ANY THUNDER
MENTION TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE
UPPER THROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.

ANY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT. HAVE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT KILN AND KLUK.
LIMITED FOG TO MVFR AT KILN AND DROPPED KLUK TO IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

100 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
APPEARS ON TRACK TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH A SECOND
COLD FRONT DROPPING ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THEN
ESE OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIDESPREAD SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A MORE NARROW BAND THAT MOVES SE OF THE AREA BY 00Z WITH THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE WORKING WITH A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS SO MOSTLY JUST SCT SHRA WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
COOL THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
OPPOSITE. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL TAKE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TUE BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR WED THRU SAT WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1240 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADD ISOLD CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...PLUS TEMPS ARE STILL COLD
ALOFT OVER THAT REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

305 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AND MARK THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH HOT SUMMERLIKE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHERE SVR TSTM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SE WV INTO ALLEGHANYS/FAR SW VA. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THRU THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOW SEEING CONVECTION FIRING FROM FAR SW VA/NW NC MTNS NE INTO THE
NRV. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
OVERALL TO FOLLOW LATEST HRRR AND TRENDS SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
ERUPT OVER MOST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEARBY THEN TAKE OFF TOWARD
THE NE IN THE MEAN SW FLOW OF 20-25KTS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 2-4PM.
FURTHER WEST...SECONDARY AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH BETTER
POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL START TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION HOLDING OFF TIL
AFTER 3-4PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MODEST
LIFT ARRIVES INTO THE WV MTNS.

ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO OTHER WX ELEMENTS. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN...WITH MID 80S COMMON...AND SOME UPPER
80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE URBAN AREAS OF ROANOKE/LYH/DAN.
SW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE SCENARIO FOR TODAY HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US AND DRIVING A SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS BACK FROM THE LOW
THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500J/KG AND THIS WILL
EASILY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

THE QUESTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN HOW MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY TO POTENTIALLY GENERATE
SEVERE STORMS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST SUPPORT WILL SHEAR OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND BELIEVE THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT
RISK RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. 850MB WINDS DO INCREASE AND GIVE
US A SUBSTANTIAL HODOGRAPH...BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT WHICH IS AFTER PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. ALSO...BELIEVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON..LIKELY BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT
VIGOROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK TIME MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKENING STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THINGS THEN START TO WIND DOWN AFTER
ABOUT 2AM AS THE LINGERING ACTIVITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK OR
SO AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LARGER SCALE HYDRO ISSUES IF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TO THE
WEST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

AT 12Z TUE...WE SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC...WITH THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGGING
BACK ACROSS WV...AS WILL BE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
THE MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.
HOWEVER...LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND A LINGERING
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT NOT AS NUMEROUS ON MON IN
ADVANCE OF/ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN FOCUS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSEST TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY LYH-MTV-TNB
EASTWARD...AND DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WOULD EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFT
04Z WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
STILL WELL INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WED-THU WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN. 500MB
HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD 588DM DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL
GA INTO SC/NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR CWA BY FRI. FOR WED-THU...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE HELD SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WATAUGA UP INTO
GRAYSON...WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD TREND OF THIS ACTIVITY
ON THU. BY FRI...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WOULD
EXPECT A GREATER PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH.

TWO FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH AT A MINIMUM WILL ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
BEING TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LATER FEATURE
HAS A LIMITED CHANCE OF MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND BLOCKING FLOW ALOFT.

COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY IS MINIMAL...WITH ONLY A BRIEF
DROP IN 850MB TEMPS. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
YIELD MAX TEMPS HIGHER TUE THAN ON MON. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH POCKETS OF 850MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO POKE INTO THE LOW 90S WED-FRI...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S MOUNTAINS AND WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMPS WILL SHOW
A SLIGHT DECREASE TUE IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WED AS A
RESULT OF DRIER AIR...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST THREAT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS REMAINING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS OF A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SAT-SUN. THIS
BOUNDARY IS LEFT LINGERING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD YIELD
ABOVE AVERAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THANKS TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS. LOWS 60S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 PIEDMONT AND
HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL FOLLOW HIGH-RES MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN MORE
OF THE GFS/WRF OVERNIGHT-18Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CENTER AROUND TSRA AND GUSTY
SW WINDS. RADAR SHOWING STORMS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED FROM
TRI- SOUTH OF ROA...WITH A BETTER LINE OF STORMS FURTHER WEST FROM
CRW-HTS SOUTH INTO SE KY. THINK ROA/LYH WILL HAVE THE TSRA INVOF
TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE REST OF
TERMINALS STARTING AFTER 19Z-20Z. SINCE THE COVERAGE IS MORE
SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT GO WITH PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN THE
TAFS...BUT HAVE TEMPO AT ROANOKE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.

AS WE HEAD TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD BLF/LWB THEN SHIFT TO BCB/ROA IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME
FRAME. WILL STILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS DOMINATE WX WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS IN THE WEST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND FOLLOWS THE SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR LOWER CIGS. WENT A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THE 12Z GFS BUT STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WRN
TERMINALS BLF/LWB...WITH MOST TAF SITES INCREASE TO VFR AFTER
12-13Z TUESDAY.

THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-WNW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME HINT OF POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF A
LYH/DAN LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT BLF/LWB WITH LOW
END VFR CIGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL BE HEATING UP WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND MORNING
AT BCB/LWB...AND POSSIBLY LYH/DAN.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

144 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT MONDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL FOLLOW HIGH-RES MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN MORE
OF THE GFS/WRF OVERNIGHT-18Z TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1234 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT MONDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
WE COMMENCE DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WITH BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LWB BRIEFLY WENT TO MVFR AND VERY
BRIEFLY IFR IN BR...BUT HAS NOW IMPROVED TO VFR. BCB SHOWING 5SM
BR...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY LOCALIZED. ANY RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY FROM BR/FG WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND GONE BY 13Z.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
CIGS/VSBYS/AND WIND ISSUES. STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFT 18Z.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. MODELS
GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA WEST 18Z...ROA/BCB AREA BY 20/21Z...AND REACHING DAN/LYH BY
00Z. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT LT. ANY CONVECTION COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR OR WORSE
CIGS/VSBYS AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OR TIMING TO ADVERTISE ANY MORE IN THE TAF
AT THIS POINT THAN A PROB30 EAST/TEMPO WEST.

GREATER POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BLF-LWB AND
SOUTHWEST VA AFT THE MAIN CONVECTION DIMINISHES/DRIFTS EAST AFT
04Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE UNTIL CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER TODAY. SW10-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 POSSIBLE MOST AREAS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB