Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE
HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF
ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM
AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO
REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY
AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 86 67 90 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 67 92 71 93 / 0 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 67 86 67 88 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 91 72 91 / 0 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 68 91 71 91 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 87 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 69 87 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 69 90 71 91 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 90 70 91 / 10 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 67 88 66 90 / 10 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 71 88 70 90 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1040 PM MST THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A RARE EARLY JUNE RAIN
EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY. RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANDRES NY A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST BROUGHT A
RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (FOR EARLY JUNE) TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE (PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH) AND DECENT LIFT FROM A 40-50KT JET
MAX ROTATING INTO THE REGION PRODUCED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS SAW
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...MOST PLACES SAW GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO HELPED TO
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE 80S AND RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES
MODEL RUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO GILA AND EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL COUNTIES
BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...HAVE MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND DROP HIGH TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A PRETTY
CLOUDY DAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FROM JUST EAST OF YUMA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
GRADUALLY THICKENED AND NOW IS PROVIDING FAIRLY OVERCAST SKIES IN A
NARROW BAND...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CENTERED NEAR KSFO HAS HELPED TO PULL UP THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
WHAT WAS PART OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO
NORTHEAST ARIZONA IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET...AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS STARTED SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. AT THIS POINT...THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY RESULTING IN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES DUE TO VERY DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY QUITE WELL AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND THEN MORE STEADY RAIN BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING IS A FAIRLY NARROW RAIN BAND WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF PHOENIX...AFFECTING MOSTLY GILA AND PINAL
COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE
00-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ABOVE AN INCH AND VALUES OF IVT ARE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AND GIVEN THAT IT HAS NEVER RAINED ON JUNE 5TH IN
PHOENIX...ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ALONG WITH SPC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BREEZY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAR
WEST AS MARICOPA COUNTY AS STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS
IN AN AREA OF VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY...THOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
A RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AGAIN HELPING TO PROPEL THE
REMAINS OF DISSIPATING TC BLANCA NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO POINTS TO THE INCEPTION OF THE
MONSOON HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AT LEAST SOME INFLUX OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO AZ. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARDS
THE 60TH PERCENTILE OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE...WHICH MORE OR LESS
EQUATES TO ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT TUESDAY-THURSDAY...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ANDRES TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM
COULD AFFECT ONE..OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FRIDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANDRES REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST. GUSY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPT TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS
TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAKENING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE OVER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TO STAY BELOW 15 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BOTH DAYS WITH
JUST A BIT OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE BLANCA MAY MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE
AREA...AND LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH
CONDITIONS EACH DAY MAY BE UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS EACH DAY BUT MAY FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY SHOULD
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ELEVATED EACH DAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS RUNNING ABOVE 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS. UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD, CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND I80 SOUTHWARD. THE
STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE KING FIRE BURN AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THERE, WHICH IF IT COMES DOWN
FAST ENOUGH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DEBRIS FLOWS. THIS STORM COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH ARE SEEING THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ACTIVITY INTO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ALONG AND EAST OF I5 THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR AND NMM MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SACRAMENTO METRO AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THERE
SHOULD JUST BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA.
HIGHS TODAY WERE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, REACHING TO AROUND
90 FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY, MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE TRICKY PART IS THE DELTA BREEZE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF SOME FOR DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS
OVERNIGHT. EK
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF MORE OF THE SAME, WITH
MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MAY EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY, MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER UP NORTH,
POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER AROUND THE DELTA.
SHOWERS AMD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HEAT UP A
LITTLE MORE EACH DAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EK
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WITH HOT
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL
SLOWLY KICK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM BLANCA MAY BE ENTRAINED IN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS CUTOFF LOW. THEREFORE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND A TRIGGER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES DECREASE A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY(STILL IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE VALLEY) DUE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE LOW, AND
STABILIZE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF VALLEY CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT THIS LATE DAY CONVECTION PATTERN.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM
WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER
CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS
EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED.
YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED
AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED
1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.
MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS
AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL
ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY
SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA.
TOLBY
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE
WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST
CONVECTION.
FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR
AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO
THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD
&&
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOCAL
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER
SOCAL TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THUS,
EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SIMILAR WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES IN THE ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS IF IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TODAY, THE HRRR INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AFTER 10
AM ALONG THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INCLUDING SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS (SUCH AS BUTTE, YUBA & NEVADA COUNTIES). SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN CENTRAL
VALLEY JUST BELOW THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. THE GREATER
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST WITH PEAK AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF INCH. VALLEY HIGHS WILL JUST BE NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VALLEY MAX TEMPS - UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
DELTA - 70S, FOOTHILLS - 70S TO MID 80S, MOUNTAINS - 60S AND 70S.
ON SATURDAY, AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER NORCAL WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
NUDGE DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE SIERRA. WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST TEMPS IN THE THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
WHERE WE MIGHT SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. MONDAY IS WHEN THE
HEAT REALLY KICKS IN...MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
TO 100. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE DESERT SW.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW AS PLACED ITSELF OFF OF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST AND SLOWLY KICKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
TRANSITORY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM
BLANCA MAY BE ENTRAINED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS CUTOFF LOW.
THEREFORE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND A TRIGGER SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY(STILL IN THE 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY) DUE TO THE
LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE LOW, AND STABILIZE THROUGH FRIDAY.
JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS PLENTIFUL...BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ALL TOGETHER. THEN WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE
PLENTIFUL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE REACHED AT
TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN
AND SOUTHWEST CO TAF SITES. THEN LOW CLOUDS AND WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD ALSO IMPACT AIR
TRAVEL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPREARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SOME RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED FOR KASE KEGE KRIL KTEX AND KDRO AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN TIME. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIP STARTING FROM 12Z
ONWARDS TOMORROW. MANY MTN RANGES WILL BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS. MAIN
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THEN PASSES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE DIFFICULT EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES AND AIRMASSES MOVING INTO
THE REGION. DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS HAVING PLUMMETED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 70S. AND A SEA BREEZE
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. IN THE SHORT TERM...NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLVING
AIRMASSES. ALSO USED FOR THE WIND IN THE SHORT TERM. CLOUDS WERE
CLEARING IN THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERED PERCENTAGES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. WITH
THE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE STILL ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE SKY
WILL END UP CLEAR AS A RESULT...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF LONG TERM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM AN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING. NOT MUCH INDICATION THAT A
WARM FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS DOES DESTABILIZE MONDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DRIER AIR
AT THE SURFACE BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME GUSTY WIND WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR MONDAY HAVE ADDED GUSTY WIND TO THE
STORMS. TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE DESPITE BEING A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THE EASTERN TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SET TO ROTATE INTO THE TROUGH. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. SO FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MOSTLY USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF. IN GENERAL WARM AND HUMID AIR DOES REMAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AFTER A LITTLE COOL DOWN AND DRIER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THEN PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. VFR WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VARYING WINDS DUE TO SEA BREEZES WILL LIGHTEN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
SUNDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SE/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY. SW GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W/SW GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE RUNNING A HALF TO A FOOT LOWER THAN FORECAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. LATER THIS EVENING OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO AN EASTERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE AND S DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STILL...SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY. IN
ADDITION INCREASING WIND MONDAY MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHES. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS WILL BE SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY WHEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BUILDS SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KIKK TO NEAR KMQB. WHILE NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ON RADAR...A CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED ITS
FORECAST CLOSELY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH
17Z...THEN INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...SO A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S/SW CWA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER THAT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE
EXPECTED MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY
HURRY TO CLEAR THE AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES
APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CELLS JUST W/NW OF KSPI. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH VCTS AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z AT KSPI DUE TO THE CURRENT PROXIMITY
OF RADAR ECHOES. FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. LOW VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE I-74 TERMINALS MAY SEE GUSTS OF
AROUND 15KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE
BY SUNSET.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KIKK TO NEAR KMQB. WHILE NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ON RADAR...A CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED ITS
FORECAST CLOSELY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH
17Z...THEN INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...SO A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S/SW CWA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER THAT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDTIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE EXPECTED
MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST
AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AMPLE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH CENTRAL IL AFFECTING TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS GENERALLY SHALLOW
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND 13Z-14Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND 17Z-24Z AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERLY 6-12 KTS. TIMING DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO GREATER THAN 40
KTS...MAINLY FOR KSPI-KDEC. PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDTIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE EXPECTED
MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST
AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY AIR ABOVE A CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W-SW
OF OUR COUNTIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING.
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
WILL END UP BECOMING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE N-NW INITIALLY, THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS BEGUN TO INDICATE. WE
WENT WITH A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORM CHANCES FOR NOW, BUT THAT CAN
BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MVFR FOG LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BASED
ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR WIND
PATTERNS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED NOT LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND WIND SHIFT THIS
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS OF
520Z. ANOTHER STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH WITHIN
1-1.5 HOURS OF SUNRISE. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
DROP TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE THIS
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY...WITH
IFR VISIBILITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LAKE MI BEING A
SOURCE FOR FOG. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN SUPPORT THIS.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE SPECIFIC BEGIN TIME OF THIS EVEN
FURTHER LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVEN EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS. THE
CIGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH CERTAINLY SOME LIFTING LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO IFR SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY...MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS AND
DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TODAY AND IN TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS ARRIVING. MEDIUM IN HOW FAR THESE WILL DROP. LOW ON
DURATION.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING HIGH OVER ONTARIO.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STEERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE AREAS...SOON AFTER DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS FOG MAY BE
TEMPORARILY DENSE...IT IS LIKELY TO ONLY LAST 2-4 HOURS AS DRIER
AIR CATCHES UP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY JUST
HANDLE WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF INDEED IT MATERIALIZES.
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. THE
MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THAT TIME FOR BOTH THE GUSTS AND SOME WAVES BUILDING
INTO THAT 4-5 FT CATEGORY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MODESTLY DEEP LOW FOR JUNE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL STEER A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH
SOME GUSTY STORMS TOO...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
STRONG...THANKS TO THE LOW MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED NOT LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND WIND SHIFT THIS
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS OF
520Z. ANOTHER STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH WITHIN
1-1.5 HOURS OF SUNRISE. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
DROP TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE THIS
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY...WITH
IFR VISIBILITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LAKE MI BEING A
SOURCE FOR FOG. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN SUPPORT THIS.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE SPECIFIC BEGIN TIME OF THIS EVEN
FURTHER LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVEN EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS. THE
CIGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH CERTAINLY SOME LIFTING LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO IFR SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY...MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS AND
DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TODAY AND IN TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS ARRIVING. MEDIUM IN HOW FAR THESE WILL DROP. LOW ON
DURATION.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF STORMS DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE
LATEST NAM GUIDANCE EVEN DELAYS PRECIP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW CELLS BUBBLING
UP LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT ALSO KEEPS THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
NOW APPEARS OUR MAIN TRIGGER FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO
WILL REDUCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DELAYED ONSET OF
STORM CHANCES. WILL PULL BACK ON POPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL, SINCE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55 ALREADY AT 12Z.
TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CIRRUS HELPING TO
KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AS OUR AREA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI.
20Z/2PM MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS PARTICULAR BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
GREATLY...WITH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING IT INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH
DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KEEPS IT WEST OF ILLINOIS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. THINK THE ACTUAL SOLUTION MAY FOCUS ON
STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THIS ACTIVITY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN WELL TO THE W/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY. HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS
REDEVELOPING ON THE OLD OUTFLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS PUSHES THROUGH THERE WILL BE DRY
WEATHER FOR A PERIOD LAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER MCS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SO A CHANCE OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR MON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-72.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HUMID WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THE FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE LESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY AIR ABOVE A CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W-SW
OF OUR COUNTIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING.
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
WILL END UP BECOMING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE N-NW INITIALLY, THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS BEGUN TO INDICATE. WE
WENT WITH A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORM CHANCES FOR NOW, BUT THAT CAN
BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MVFR FOG LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BASED
ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR WIND
PATTERNS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
222 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY
SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER IOWA. IF
THIS COMES ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE COMMON HABIT OF CONVECTION IN
SUCH SITUATIONS FOLLOWING THICKNESSES...IT WONT GET NEAR INDIANA
TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH NOW PREDICT A DRY
NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WERE DRY TO BOOT. NOTHING
SUPPORTS RAIN ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT WAS
BASED ON A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS
ON THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL MAIN FEATURES ARE CAPTURED WELL.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SET TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SWINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ANY SURFACE HEATING IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZE. WHILE BL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WAVE AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE FINE ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY PULSE IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES. HELD CLOUD COVER UP JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. IN TIME THOUGH...A DRIER E/NE FLOW SHOULD ERODE
THE INVERSION WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER 850MB JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL PRESENT A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...FIRST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAVMOS GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH E/NE WINDS
BUT STILL A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SNEAKY WARM FOR THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE INTO
THE 18-19C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPECTRUM IN BRINGING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHARP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY...SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN.
MODELS THEN KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PER
THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
MIDWEEK AND MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK.
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE /...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT EARLY THIS MORNING AT OUTLYING SITES WHERE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT REMAIN AT VFR LEVEL.
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONDUCIVE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MID MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY
SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER IOWA. IF
THIS COMES ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE COMMON HABIT OF CONVECTION IN
SUCH SITUATIONS FOLLOWING THICKNESSES...IT WONT GET NEAR INDIANA
TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH NOW PREDICT A DRY
NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WERE DRY TO BOOT. NOTHING
SUPPORTS RAIN ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT WAS
BASED ON A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS
ON THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL MAIN FEATURES ARE CAPTURED WELL.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SET TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SWINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ANY SURFACE HEATING IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZE. WHILE BL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WAVE AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE FINE ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY PULSE IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES. HELD CLOUD COVER UP JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. IN TIME THOUGH...A DRIER E/NE FLOW SHOULD ERODE
THE INVERSION WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER 850MB JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL PRESENT A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...FIRST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAVMOS GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH E/NE WINDS
BUT STILL A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SNEAKY WARM FOR THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE INTO
THE 18-19C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER INTO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE /...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT EARLY THIS MORNING AT OUTLYING SITES WHERE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT REMAIN AT VFR LEVEL.
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONDUCIVE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MID MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A SIGNIFICANT REVISION HAS BEEN DONE TO THE FORECAST.
RADAR TRENDS...IN COMBINATION OF WHAT SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING AND 00Z UA DATA...SUPPORT GOING DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AROUND KMCI AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SHOULD SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE AND COMBINE OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS ALONG WITH FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO THEM
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA OR AT THE VERY WORST BRUSHING PARTS
OF SCOTLAND/CLARK COUNTIES IN MISSOURI TOWARD MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION EAST OF KFSD IS A
CONCERN. RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SHOW IT AS OVERLY ROBUST AND
WEAKENING WITH SUNSET.
SO MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF TRENDS FROM
THE RAP CONTINUE...THAT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN
DRY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 23Z AND FROM THE 18Z UKMET/GFS/WRF...
INCLUDING TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL...DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS.
THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHERE WILL THE NEW MCS TRACK. MCS TOOL
APPLIED TO SEVERAL MODELS IS SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE
UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SYNOPSIS...QUIET DAY ACROSS THE DVN CWA TODAY BUT DEFINITELY WARM
AND HUMID WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA AND EXTENDED FROM
THE KS/NE BORDER TO CENTRAL MO WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WAS WEAKENING ACROSS MO BUT WAS STRENGTHENING IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN NORTHERN KANSAS SBCAPES WERE AS HIGH AS
5000 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM HELICITIES OF 500 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IGNITE A
SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MCS WILL THEN TRACK/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. ONCE AGAIN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE
MCS WILL TRACK. THE HRRR/ARW HI-RES MESO MODELS AND THE NAM KEEPS
THE MCS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS BRINGS IT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOCAL MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES THE MCS
WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER PWATS. I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE SOUTH BUT ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A DECREASING TREND IN POPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF NOW THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
MCS AND ASSUMING IT EVEN IMPACTS THE DVN CWA IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
DEPARTING MCS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LOWERING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN OUR
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS ASSUMING THE
MCS IMPACTS THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
CONCERN TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WITH COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE PAST FEW NIGHTS OF CONVECTION
ILLUSTRATE BL TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO QUICK CONVECTION INITIATION
AND THEN TOO FAR TO THE INFLOW OR SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUPPORTS MATURE
CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT
SUNDAY LATE PM.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL DISPLACING MOST CONVECTION TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH...OR INFLOW SIDE. PERSISTENCE AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SUPPORTS
A 60/40 MIX OF GFS WITH HI-RES ECMWF.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY TO DRY WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY. MINS MIDDLE 50S NE TO LOWER 60S IN SW SECTIONS AND HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY POPS WITH BEST CHANCES OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. LOW RISK
OF SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LATE AT NIGHT. MINS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SUNDAY...COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH SUNSHINE TO BE REACHED AROUND 3 TO 4 PM
WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 TO RECEIVE STORMS
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 1500+ TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR ISOLATED 1
INCH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH BASED ON T/TD OF 85/65
OR MORE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK NW FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR IN
THE 80 TO 85+ RANGE AND LOWS MOSTLY 60 TO 65+ RANGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE
55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR VSBYS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KDBQ WHERE DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
AREA. AFT 12Z/05 ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
KBRL MIGHT SEE A VCSH OR VCTS AFT 16Z/05 BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
NOT HIGH.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE
SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND
FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE GARDEN CITY TERMINAL.
WILL FOREGO ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GCK TAF BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 65 84 / 20 20 50 10
GCK 65 91 63 83 / 30 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 63 82 / 30 30 50 20
LBL 66 93 65 84 / 10 30 60 20
HYS 66 89 62 84 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 68 87 / 0 10 60 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS PLUME
GENERALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH 1.5-1.8 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND ARE PRETTY RARE DURING OUR MONSOON SEASON AT THE
END OF JULY. ONCE THE STORMS REACH THIS AIRMASS AM EXPECTING VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LIKELY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S
EAST/NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL UNFOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THE EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE 850MB TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WANTED TO HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE DECIDED TO KEEP RAINFALL
CHANCES A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND DRIER. THEREFORE WILL HAVE
CHANCES FOR RAIN DECLINE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
EVENING NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 OR
BASICALLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHEST RECORDED FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM SURROUNDING
UPPER AIR SITES.
SUNDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL FIRE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE 20+MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS IT OVER
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES.
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING A SECOND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...UNDER 10MB OR SO. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...FILLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY
HIGH...RIVALING THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS ACCORDING TO
CLIMATOLOGY OF OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM SURROUNDING SITES. WITH THIS
IN MIND PLACED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BRINGING RAINFALL
TO AN END.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST
AND BECOMES ELONGATED OVER THE PLAINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE THROUGH. AFTER WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS PLUME
GENERALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH 1.5-1.8 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND ARE PRETTY RARE DURING OUR MONSOON SEASON AT THE
END OF JULY. ONCE THE STORMS REACH THIS AIRMASS AM EXPECTING VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LIKELY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S
EAST/NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER
THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES ONCE MORE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE 1600 J/KG
TO 2200 J/KG HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS WEAK WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LONG FETCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH.
BASED ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS AND LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
00Z...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THESE VALUES ARE OFF THE CHART FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND USUALLY NOT SEEN TIL LATE IN JULY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL A BIT HIGHER THEN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN YUMA COUNTY...WARMING SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 FROM NEAR HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKEOVER SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE FA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS AND CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SO
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR ON SATURDAY FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA THROUGH 15Z. BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER THE ADVISORY AREA IS
FORECAST TO EXCEED 90 PERCENT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 1 TO 2
DEGREES. MIXING FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS INHIBITED DENSE FOG SO FAR
BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER IN A FEW HOURS AS STORMS WEAKEN AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. THE NAM INDICATES THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
PLAN TO KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG
NEAR SUNRISE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 80S. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER
THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES ONCE MORE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE 1600 J/KG
TO 2200 J/KG HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS WEAK WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LONG FETCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A CLOSED
500 MB LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE
AREA SUN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA ON SUN AND MOVES BOTH OUT SUN NIGHT. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE FOR THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO DRY FOR SAT NIGHT FAR EASTERN CWA
AND THEN WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUN. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH WRAPAROUND IN THE AREA AND WITH TROUGHING
ON MON ALOFT...COULD STILL SEEM SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POP UP WHICH
WARRANTS LOW POPS FOR MON AND THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP FORM SOME CONVECTION AS WELL.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 12Z TUE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW. THE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AFFECTS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA 12Z WED. UPPER FLOW GETS PARALLEL WITH SFC FRONT 12Z THU
WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THEY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WARRANTS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A
LOW STRATUS IFR DECK REMAINS OVER SAW ON N WINDS...AND SOME MVFR
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W UPPER MI. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE TEMPORARY...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5KTS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE N. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A
LOW STRATUS IFR DECK REMAINS OVER SAW ON N WINDS...AND SOME MVFR
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W UPPER MI. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE TEMPORARY...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5KTS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE N. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT
KSAW/KIWD TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO VFR. THINK THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST AT KSAW WITH THE FAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...ENDING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
KCMX...THERE IS FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE...BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NOT REALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY HAVE CLEARED OUT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NNE WIND AT SAW IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT THIS LOCATION THRU SUNRISE. SINCE SOME DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AND THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT PRESENT AS
STRONG AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...CONDITIONS THERE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO FALL BLO MVFR. THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE VEERED ENUF AT IWD TO
LIMIT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THERE...BUT IFR CIGS WL STILL OCCUR AT
TIMES DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. AS THE STEADY N FLOW TO THE S OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRI
DURING DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING FOG WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR WX BY LATE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-
248>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THAT WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FRI NIGHT. THIS TROUGH
THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN. NAM BRINGS IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN INTO THE CWA.
KEPT IN SOME FROST FOR FRI NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES TO DROP INTO THE MID
30S. KEPT FRI NIGHT AND SAT DRY FOR NOW AND THEN HAVE POPS COMING IN
SAT NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS COMING INTO THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT
AND OVERSPREADING THE CWA ON SUN. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE.
THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z TUE AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND SLOWS DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT ON THU AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES PARALLEL WITH IT WHICH SHOULD STALL THIS FRONT JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MON...THEN DRY FOR TUE AND
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FRONTS IN THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NNE WIND AT SAW IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT THIS LOCATION THRU SUNRISE. SINCE SOME DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AND THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT PRESENT AS
STRONG AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...CONDITIONS THERE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO FALL BLO MVFR. THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE VEERED ENUF AT IWD TO
LIMIT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THERE...BUT IFR CIGS WL STILL OCCUR AT
TIMES DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. AS THE STEADY N FLOW TO THE S OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRI
DURING DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING FOG WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR WX BY LATE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-
248>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING FG/LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST AS A
PERSISTENT DRIER E/NE FLOW BLW 3K REMAINS DURING THE NEXT 6-18
HRS. THERE MAY BE AN HR OR TWO OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KRWF/KAXN...BUT
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTN WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONDS
THRU THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME PERIOD. -SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 6Z IN WC MN...WITH THE BEST CHC AFT 12Z. BEST AREA OF
TSRA WILL OCCUR NEAR KAXN WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE E/ENE THRU THIS EVENING...THEN MORE MORE ESE/SE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFT 18Z/06. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE A
BETTER SCENARIO ON TSRA TIMING IN THE AFTN/EVENING OF JUNE 6.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE/E THRU THE EVENING...BECOMING MORE
ESE OVERNIGHT...AND SE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A POCKET OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DRIFTED ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS SHOULD LIFT THIS
MORNING. ONCE IT DOES EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN
WI. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.
KMSP...
ANTICIPATING THAT THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TODAY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS THE LIFR CLOUDS ARE JUST TO THE
WEST. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MN
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI SHOULD
KEEP THINGS LARGELY VFR THERE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SPORADIC
REPORTS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THERE AS
MIXING BEGINS. REMOVED THE VCTS AT RWF WITH A DECLINING CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COMPARED TO EARLIER THINKING ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
KMSP...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS ARE HOVERING NEAR
MVFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SUCH
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FL025 HOWEVER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. MADE SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. REMOVED THE RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT...SO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM SEEMS GOOD. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CATEGORY
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING IT RIGHT NOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AT KMEI EARLIER TODAY WILL HELP INCREASE LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 93 71 92 / 10 13 9 19
MERIDIAN 68 94 68 92 / 10 9 7 18
VICKSBURG 73 92 71 91 / 9 15 11 22
HATTIESBURG 68 93 71 92 / 13 11 11 19
NATCHEZ 74 92 73 91 / 9 15 13 21
GREENVILLE 74 92 73 90 / 13 12 10 28
GREENWOOD 72 92 70 90 / 9 11 11 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area
early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu
fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for
what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the
s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little
fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over
the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg
with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear
look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave
expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some
strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm
clusters are a possibility through mid evening.
With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and
shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall
chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front"
is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure
over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least
focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday
morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an
uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a
southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be
to the north.
Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with
progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates
and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse
type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall
chances will be fairly low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid
south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief
time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try
to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level
capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday.
The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens
out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over
southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near
or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also
indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the
mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances
for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks
fairly quiet.
On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a
shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the
southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant
moisture progged to be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Thunderstorm complexes from last night have now pushed through the
area...but have left several outflow boundaries to deal with in
their wake. The main one is down along the MO-AR border and is the
focus for some developing cu down around KBBG.
Models also showing a weak upper wave traversing the area over the
top of the upper level ridge this afternoon and evening along with
a weak surface cold front along the northern CWA border. Anyone of
these could act as a focus for scattered convection this
afternoon. At this time...believe most of the convection will be
north and east of the aerodromes. Will continue to monitor for
development throughout the afternoon.
The next question is fog formation overnight. The combination of
moist ground...light winds...mostly clear skies...and high
pressure over the area make for a good scenario for fog formation.
Several models seem to be hinting at this as well. Will mention
MVFR visibilities in the 09-14z time frame as this would be the
prime time for this to occur.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Thunderstorm complexes from last night have now pushed through the
area...but have left several outflow boundaries to deal with in
their wake. The main one is down along the MO-AR border and is the
focus for some developing cu down around KBBG.
Models also showing a weak upper wave traversing the area over the
top of the upper level ridge this afternoon and evening along with
a weak surface cold front along the northern CWA border. Anyone of
these could act as a focus for scattered convection this
afternoon. At this time...believe most of the convection will be
north and east of the aerodromes. Will continue to monitor for
development throughout the afternoon.
The next question is fog formation overnight. The combination of
moist ground...light winds...mostly clear skies...and high
pressure over the area make for a good scenario for fog formation.
Several models seem to be hinting at this as well. Will mention
MVFR visibilities in the 09-14z time frame as this would be the
prime time for this to occur.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
718 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Pilots can expect prevailing VFR conditions at area terminals today
and tonight. However a few showers and storms may impact some
areas especially north of the terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
...Another Thunderstorm Complex Moving into the Area Later This
Morning...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Line of convection was taking aim at central MO late this evening
with more scattered showers and isolated thunder out ahead of
it, extending down into Polk county. We have gone overcast at SGF
around 5000 feet within the last hour. Have gone with VCTS wording
in the TAF at SGF, but not convinced about other sites at this
point. Main area of convection with the linear system should
remain north of the terminal locations. Have some MVFR light fog
in for SGF/BBG overnight, otherwise expecting VFR conditions at
the terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
218 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Forecast for early this morning has been updated to account for
ongoing precip with embedded thunder stretching from NW MO into NE
KS. Ongoing severe weather, primarily with observed and reported severe
and damaging winds across portions of central KS as a line extends
from east-central KS westward into the center of the state, has
prompted a watch across a couple of counties in the southwestern
portion of this forecast area. As this line sags south and east,
it appears to continue to feed on localized instability, along
with maximized area of effective bulk shear. Additionally, LLJ has
been ramping up tonight with the line feeding right into it.
Question mark on how this line may affect this forecast area
locally will be the evolution of the cold pool with this feature.
One other concern to keep an eye on is the moderate to heavy rain
currently riding the border of this forecast area, and monitoring
if it stays together to reach the KC metro area. With FFG already
so low, flooding could very quickly become an issue once more,
especially in urban areas given the quick runoff.
UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWA overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.
Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.
Friday`s forecast is highly dependent on how tonight`s storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.
Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Second complex of heavy rain producing thunderstorms over northern KS
continue to propagate southward with some eastward extension through
northwest and west central MO. Current thinking is strongest storms
with heaviest rains will bypass the terminals. However, stratiform
rain with embedded thunder will occasional affect all of the
terminals overnight. Expect the convective activity to exit the
terminals by mid morning with considerable mid level cloud cover
gradually dissolving. Overall VFR conditions although KIXD could see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings/visibilities should the northern KS
activity turn towards the southeast.
There should be a considerable break in the rain chances from late
morning through the afternoon. Still some concern thunderstorms could
once again affect northern and possibly west central MO Friday
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...lg/MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWa overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.
Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.
Friday`s forecast is highly dependent on how tonight`s storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.
Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Second complex of heavy rain producing thunderstorms over northern KS
continue to propagate southward with some eastward extension through
northwest and west central MO. Current thinking is strongest storms
with heaviest rains will bypass the terminals. However, stratiform
rain with embedded thunder will occasional affect all of the
terminals overnight. Expect the convective activity to exit the
terminals by mid morning with considerable mid level cloud cover
gradually dissolving. Overall VFR conditions although KIXD could see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings/visibilities should the northern KS
activity turn towards the southeast.
There should be a considerable break in the rain chances from late
morning through the afternoon. Still some concern thunderstorms could
once again affect northern and possibly west central MO Friday
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
920 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THE NAM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENT PLACEMENTS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND BOTH
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOUNT FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIDESPREAD CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -6 AND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THE NAM
PLACES UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BIG SHEEPS.
THE GFS MAX PRECIP AXIS RUNS FROM GLASGOW NE THROUGH SCOBEY. THE
EC MAX IS EARLIER OVER GARFIELD COUNTY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BLEND
THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS
IN A VARIETY OF LOCATIONS. SO...BEST WE CAN SAY IS SOMEWHERE IN NE
MONTANA...A HEAVY RAIN STORM OR TWO WILL BE SOMEWHERE BUT
UNFORTUNATELY WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY UNTIL IT SHOWS UP ON
RADAR DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND CALMER WEATHER FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND CALM EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CUT OFF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW DRY DAYS. UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL NORTH...ONLY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
RECONNECT WITH THE OPEN TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFTS
THE UPPER FLOW INTO MONTANA TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE TROF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. UPPER FLOW NOW EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DRIER
FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS: COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS. ERRATIC AND STRONGER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GAH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OFFICIALS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY REPORT THAT MCDONALD CREEK AND
FLATWILLOW CREEKS HAVE MINOR FLOODING. DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...CREEK LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO
AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEREFORE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...
PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
401 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOUNT FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW HIGH FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIDESPREAD CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -6 AND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. INGREDIENT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THE NAM
PLACES UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BIG SHEEP
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS MAX PRECIP AXIS RUNS FROM GLASGOW NE THROUGH
SCOBEY. THE EC MAX IS EARLIER OVER GARFIELD COUNTY. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BLEND THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING LESSER
AMOUNTS IN A VARIETY OF LOCATIONS. SO...BEST WE CAN SAY IS
SOMEWHERE IN NE MONTANA...A HEAVY RAIN STORM OR TWO WILL BE
SOMEWHERE BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY UNTIL IT
SHOWS UP ON RADAR DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND CALMER WEATHER FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND CALM EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CUT OFF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW DRY DAYS. UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL NORTH...ONLY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
RECONNECT WITH THE OPEN TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFTS
THE UPPER FLOW INTO MONTANA TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE TROF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. UPPER FLOW NOW EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DRIER
FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUD OVER THE REGION COULD DROP
CEILINGS TO MVFR. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OFFICIALS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY REPORT THAT MCDONALD CREEK AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT REPEATED RAINFALL IN
THE AREA. ONE MORE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO KEEP CREEK LEVELS HIGH FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTY UNTIL 915 THIS
MORNING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH UPDATED INFORMATION.
MICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1154 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY
OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LEWISTOWN AREA
UNTIL 07Z FRI...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 20Z FRI. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND IN THE LEWISTOWN AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BRUSDA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR THE LEWISTOWN AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE IS
CAUSING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO EXCEED 40 KTS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. NUTTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES AND WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PUT THE STATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 72 50 75 / 20 40 20 10
CTB 43 73 45 76 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 53 74 53 77 / 30 50 40 10
BZN 48 72 48 72 / 40 50 50 30
WEY 38 67 39 66 / 30 70 40 40
DLN 47 69 49 70 / 40 50 40 30
HVR 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 50 69 51 72 / 30 50 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT FRIDAY
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1140 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY
OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LEWISTOWN AREA
UNTIL 07Z FRI...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 20Z FRI. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND IN THE LEWISTOWN AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE IS
CAUSING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO EXCEED 40 KTS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. NUTTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES AND WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PUT THE STATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COULSTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR THE LEWISTOWN AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BRUSDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 72 50 75 / 20 40 20 10
CTB 43 73 45 76 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 53 74 53 77 / 30 50 40 10
BZN 48 72 48 72 / 40 50 50 30
WEY 38 67 39 66 / 30 70 40 40
DLN 47 69 49 70 / 40 50 40 30
HVR 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 50 69 51 72 / 30 50 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT FRIDAY
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CEILINGS ARE ON THE CUSP BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN AT MVFR
LEVELS /1500-2500 FT/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BROKEN COVERAGE
NEAR KOFK AND MROE SCATTERED NEAR KOMA/KLNK. AT LEAST SCATTERED
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ALSO MAY SEE VISIBILITY DROP
TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
AROUND 15Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
701 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR. LEFT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES(TSRA/SHRA) UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE AREA
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF KOFK/KOMA THROUGH THE VERY
SHORT TERM. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KLNK...AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT KLNK 07-10Z. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS SIMILAR TO LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
COULD ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE TAF PERIODS...BUT
AGAIN BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WILL OPT
TO LEAVE OUT UNTIL WE CAN BETTER DEFINE IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ065-066-
068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
138 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTH CWA. THE 02Z RUN OF
THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON PRECIP TRENDS...ODDLY
BETTER THAN LATER RUNS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER. ALSO DROPPED THE
TORNADO WATCH AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN
USA. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COMPLETE THIS ACTION TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN
ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
SURFACE: A SFC LOW WAS OVER SW KS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED
NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING
BEHIND THE MCS OVER ERN KS AND THE WRN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR NORTON KS. ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT.
AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
GRADUALLY SINK SE AND BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IT SHOULD MERGE WITH
OTHER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND BE ORIENTED FROM W-E NEAR I-70.
EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO CONT AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
AND EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THRU
ERN NEB/KS. OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
WITHOUT UPR SUPPORT...THESE STORMS PROBABLY WON`T SURVIVE THE TRIP
E.
PLEASE SEE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AS WELL AS THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS.
ALSO REFER TO MESO DISC 887.
HEAVY RAIN: SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH THE LLJ
SUGGESTS REPEATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE THE LLJ
DEVELOPS WITH CELL TRAINING POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM/FRI.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE MADDOX MESOHIGH-TYPE. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
IS A RED FLAG.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THEN
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY. THIS AT LEAST
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WIDESPREAD MODEL
DISCREPANCY WITH WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOW ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE
BOUNDARIES LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME FORECAST MODELS KEEP
THIS BOUNDARY OVER SOME PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN IF THAT MEANS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN
PUSHES BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE GENERAL AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE
LESS THAN 50/50 GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ADJUSTED AND FINE TUNED AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME
FRAME AND AFTER WE SEE HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH AT LEAST A TEMPORARY TREND
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE BRIEF DRY
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO CONVECTION NEARBY. KEPT VCTS AS
CONFIDENCE WOULD NOT BE HIGH FOR ANY KIND OF TIMING OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND VISIBILITY COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ061>064-073>077-
083>087.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
325 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST UTAH BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS A MIX OF SUN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOS ANGELES BASIN WITH A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HAVING PUNCHED
NORTHEAST AS FAR AS CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWFA REMAIN STABLE AND THUS DRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MAIN STEERING FLOW HAS
BEEN SOUTHERLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
WELL AS A 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES, ENOUGH CAPE, GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LAPS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS
RESULTED IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY NOTED AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS HERE
TRIGGER WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNPOURS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HOLD ON LONGER AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND
LATER CENTRAL NYE COUNTY FROM UTAH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, MOST MODELS DO NOT SHUT DOWN ACTIVITY ALTOGETHER OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWFA. THUS WE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WHICH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS MT
CHARLESTON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CUMULUS HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GROW
OVER CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, POPS OVER MT CHARLESTON MAY BE
OVERDONE FOR THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING IN MOST SPOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES GETTING SUCKED INTO ARIZONA BUT THIS WILL
SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO GET FED BY THE LOW`S BROAD CIRCULATION
BACK INTO OUR AREA. SO OVER THE WEEKEND, ANY MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE
WHAT IS ALREADY CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST CENTER OF THE LOW`S
CIRCULATION. THUS, THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES
IN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. PROSPECTS LOOK EVEN LOWER ON
SUNDAY AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER DECREASES. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN FOR SATURDAY THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE THE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO STRETCH OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ESSENTIALLY JUST BECOMES AN ELONGATED
PIECE OF ENERGY STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY, WE MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO
LAS VEGAS. THEN ALL EYES START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AT WE EYE
WHAT GOES ON WITH BLANCA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE BLANCA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,
BLANCA IS STILL SLATED TO BE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MONDAY
MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY STEER THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON CERTAIN FEATURES, MODELS HAVE
INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS ALSO
AGREEMENT ON A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF BLANCA, I CANNOT IGNORE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. HAVE UPPED
DEWPOINTS EVEN MORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND YET MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH IN SOME LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING MID-
LEVEL FORCING WORKING NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THE TROUGH MAY EVEN PULL A
LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD, TOWARD US. WITH DESTABILIZATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AT LEAST THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, HAVE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE MORE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO INCREASED
POPS SOME MORE WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LARGER DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY GET INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW MORE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE UNUSUAL FOR JUNE AND MAY KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES GOING FOR SOME AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HAVE TRENDED THEM
COOLER FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE 4-8 KTS EARLY THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONFIGURATION ISSUES AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY AS WINDS VARY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AFTER 05Z
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MAINLY AFTER 20Z FROM NEAR A LINE FROM
KIYK-KELY ON NORTHWEST AND FROM A LINE FROM KELY-KIGM ON NORTHEAST.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. BASED
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL BE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STILL
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KELLY AND CLARKTON
TO BOLTON TO SUPPLY AND SOUTHPORT. A COUPLE SHOWERS WERE ALSO
MOVING INTO THE KINGSTREE AREA. IN ALL CASES THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WAS WANING...OWING TO THE STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AND WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ENDED BY OR AROUND THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT THE COAST...ALONG THE LAND BREEZE...TOWARD
MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A CKI TO SUT LINE LATE THIS
EVE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT ON N TO NE WINDS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE AIR SHOULD BE A LITTLE
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH WARMER NUMBERS
NEARER THE OCEAN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 85 TO 90 WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
EXTENDED...WILL TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEK...AND THE FIRST TRULY HOT WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY...DRIVEN BY A
RATHER POTENT VORTICITY IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
HAS SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER SUPPORT...AND PROFILES DEPICT SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR ON TUESDAY. TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT ORGANIZATION IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING CONVECTION...BUT LIKELY WEAKER THAN WHAT IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS TUE/WED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS.
THEREAFTER...A BIG WARMUP IS STARTING TO LOOK POSSIBLE FOR LATE
WEEK. BIG UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU-SAT WITH
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS 20C. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH ITS RIDGING...BUT EVEN THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THICKNESSES HEADING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOWS HIGH CHANCES FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
ERODE...AND EVEN WITH INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL WANE FRI/SAT AND WILL DROP POP TO SILENT FOR D6/D7. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT AIR MAY CREATE THE FIRST 100-DEGREE
HEAT INDICES OF 2015 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS IFR TSTM CONDITIONS
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KILM BY 02 UTC IF THUNDERSTORM STAY.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BR DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS IFR CEILINGS FROM KILM TO KLBT BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE TOWARDS DAYBREAK LIFTING VSBY TO
VFR... AND CIGS TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 1630 UTC AND 1800 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
FADE WAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY REDEVELOP ALONG THE LAND BREEZE TOWARD MORNING.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SURGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
NORTHERN WATERS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING NE WINDS SUNDAY WHICH WILL VEER
THROUGH TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
OF 4 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL NW OF THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AND SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL RISE TO 15-20 KT THANKS
TO THE PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE
WILL BE 10-15 KT. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND
WAVE AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
REACHING 2-3 FT WED/THU...SLIGHT HIGHER 3-4 FT ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
JUST N OF A FLO TO ILM LINE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WERE GENERALLY FADING
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EVEN ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WERE HOLDING TOGETHER AND
WILL EFFECT PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL
PORTRAYS THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. WHILE IT IS NOT CLEAR CONVECTION WILL
BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF ONCE THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES LATE
THIS EVE...GRID WORK WILL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION SLIPPING SOUTH
AND SLOWLY FADING OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP TO 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE AIR SHOULD BE A LITTLE
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH WARMER NUMBERS
NEARER THE OCEAN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 85 TO 90 WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
EXTENDED...WILL TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEK...AND THE FIRST TRULY HOT WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY...DRIVEN BY A
RATHER POTENT VORTICITY IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
HAS SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER SUPPORT...AND PROFILES DEPICT SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR ON TUESDAY. TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY STRONG
CONVECTION...BUT ORGANIZATION IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING CONVECTION...BUT LIKELY WEAKER THAN WHAT IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS TUE/WED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS.
THEREAFTER...A BIG WARMUP IS STARTING TO LOOK POSSIBLE FOR LATE
WEEK. BIG UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU-SAT WITH
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS 20C. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH ITS RIDGING...BUT EVEN THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THICKNESSES HEADING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOWS HIGH CHANCES FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
ERODE...AND EVEN WITH INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL WANE FRI/SAT AND WILL DROP POP TO SILENT FOR D6/D7. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT AIR MAY CREATE THE FIRST 100-DEGREE
HEAT INDICES OF 2015 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS IFR TSTM CONDITIONS
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KILM BY 02 UTC IF THUNDERSTORM STAY.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BR DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS IFR CEILINGS FROM KILM TO KLBT BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE TOWARDS DAYBREAK LIFTING VSBY TO
VFR... AND CIGS TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 1630 UTC AND 1800 UTC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT IS SHOWING CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS IT
GENERALLY PUSHES SOUTH. THE WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE SE...SHIFTING TO NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURGE WILL DEVELOP
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUN MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO
15 KT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING NE WINDS SUNDAY WHICH WILL VEER
THROUGH TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
OF 4 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL NW OF THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AND SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL RISE TO 15-20 KT THANKS
TO THE PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE
WILL BE 10-15 KT. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND
WAVE AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
REACHING 2-3 FT WED/THU...SLIGHT HIGHER 3-4 FT ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU
LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER
LIFTING INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
80. MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE
MID 70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL
STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END OF THE DAY
AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING NOT ALLOWING
FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR AREA AND
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY ALSO MOVE
DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AS
THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A
SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO 500 MB
ON SATURDAY MAY HELP TRIP OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST DURING AND
FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING...AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS PINNED
ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR. AS THE WEAK LOW MIGRATES EAST AND OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND FORM INTO A WEDGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXIMUMS
ON SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY....WITH POTENTIALLY
AN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GRADUAL
THICKNESS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND TO LESS FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE FORMATION AND SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS THE BEST TIME-FRAME FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AT LEAST CLIMO EACH AFTN. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THURSDAY WHEN
SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS JUNE...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
CLEAN PASSAGE...SO WILL SHOW FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FEEL
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE THANKS TO HIGH HEAT INDICES.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TUES/WED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH AND STALLS...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT LATE IN
THE WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL WANE BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-CHC EVEN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BROKEN STRATUS/STRATOCU THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THINGS
PRETTY STABLE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABLIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS WELL AS THE COAST AS A LOT OF THE
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
FLO...BUT EVEN FOR THIS AREA WENT WITH VCSH DUE TO LACK OF
COVERAGE. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
FOG/STRATUS AT BAY...PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS AT FLO...ESPECIALLY
IF THEY RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. SATURDAY...LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY FIRE AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE
TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK BUT VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO LATE SATURDAY. A BIT OF A NE SURGE OF WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE NORTH BUILDS S OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS...BRINGING NE WINDS
TO 15 KT AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE-E
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING IN A 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
SATURDAY MAY BUMP UP TO 3-4 FT SUNDAY AS NE WINDS INCREASE. SEAS
ESE 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS MIXED WITH LIGHT CHOP SATURDAY AND A
MODERATE 1-1.5 FT NE CHOP SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE INSHORE
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT
WILL TRY TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HELD
UP AND STALL JUST IN THE VICINITY INSTEAD OF MAKING A CLEAN PASSAGE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS
RISING FROM 5-10 KTS MONDAY...TO 15-20 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY. A BRIEF
DECREASE IN SPEED ALONG WITH A VEERING TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SE THAT FRONT MAKES IT...BUT A QUICK
RETURN TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND WAVE AND SE
GROUND SWELL...BOTH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...FROM 2-3 FT MONDAY TO 3-5
FT LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT
WEDNESDAY...AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
244 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU LAYER BETWEEN
2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER LIFTING
INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 80.
MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE MID
70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL
STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END OF THE DAY
AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING NOT ALLOWING
FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR AREA AND
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY ALSO MOVE
DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AS
THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A
SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A GOOD MIX FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY INLAND LATE AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY.
0-6KM SHEAR ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 17 KNOTS BUT NOT THE
LOWEST VALUE I HAVE SEEN EITHER SO SOME STRONG CELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD SPELL TROUBLE AS WELL. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. WITH PWS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
SUNDAY...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES TO MESH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH POWERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WE CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM THE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/INLAND TROUGH FORCED NUMBERS MONDAY TO GOOD
CHANCE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NUMBERS WITH READINGS SOME THREE TO SEVEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BROKEN STRATUS/STRATOCU THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THINGS
PRETTY STABLE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS WELL AS THE COAST AS A LOT OF THE
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
FLO...BUT EVEN FOR THIS AREA WENT WITH VCSH DUE TO LACK OF
COVERAGE. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
FOG/STRATUS AT BAY...PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS AT FLO...ESPECIALLY
IF THEY RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. SATURDAY...LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY FIRE AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE
TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS SATURDAY DICTATED
MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A NORTHEAST
FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS QUICKLY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SURGE OR
TWO THAT MAY INCREASE WINDS FURTHER AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND TO THE
INCREASE IN WINDS RISING FROM 2-3 FEET SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
AN ISOLATED FIVE FOOTER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A
SURGE OCCURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER VERY LATE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A HEALTHY 2-
4 FEET DEVELOPING UP FROM THE TEPID 1-3 FEET MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT DOESN`T LOOK MUCH
LIKE JUNE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
IS PUSHING A LARGE BODY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH...MARION AND FLORENCE BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND COULD EVEN BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE CLOUD
DEPTH SHOULD BE GREATEST. LOOK FOR THIS CLOUDINESS TO BURN OFF
BETWEEN 830-1030 AM RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK BY LATE
MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT NE TO A POSITION OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD BE FROM THE NW...WITH WARMING 850-500 MB TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE TO THE UPPER LOW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WEAKENING WITH TIME. A SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2-3
PM...BLOWING COUNTER TO THE MAINLY OFFSHORE WIND OTHERWISE IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SITUATION WHERE EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR WHERE
CONVERGING SEABREEZES WILL BE HELD NEARLY STATIONARY BY THE SYNOPTIC
WIND. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NSSL WRF MODEL SHOWS A PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS BEFORE: A SINGLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE FEAR. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNSUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE THIS
KIND OF FORCING TO GET CONVECTION GOING...AND THIS IS MY SINGLE
CONVECTIVE "FOCUS AREA" FOR THE DAY. HIGHS 80-84...WARMEST WEST OF I-
95.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 9 PM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS 64-68...WARMEST ON
THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A GOOD MIX FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY INLAND LATE AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY.
0-6KM SHEAR ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 17 KNOTS BUT NOT THE
LOWEST VALUE I HAVE SEEN EITHER SO SOME STRONG CELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD SPELL TROUBLE AS WELL. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. WITH PWS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
SUNDAY...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES TO MESH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH POWERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WE CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM THE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/INLAND TROUGH FORCED NUMBERS MONDAY TO GOOD
CHANCE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NUMBERS WITH READINGS SOME THREE TO SEVEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT IN BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO
IFR...ALTHOUGH I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR OVER THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING GIVEN TRENDS OBSERVED IN 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRATUS SHOULD MAKE
IT DOWN EVEN TO THE MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08-10Z...WITH
ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS IN IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT LIFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM
AND LBT AIRPORTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 12Z.
STRATUS WILL BREAK A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT INTO A
DIURNAL VFR CU LAYER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...TURNING TO THE S/SE
AT THE COAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
DARK...LEAVING RESIDUAL VFR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
EVENING IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A NARROW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH
WINDS AT 10-15 KT THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING VARIABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
SHOULD PREDOMINATE TONIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
FEATURE.
AS WE`VE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS A 2 FOOT 8-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE A SHORT (2-4 SECOND) WAVE THIS
MORNING FROM THE NORTH WINDS. THIS SHOULD DIE AWAY THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MAINLY JUST THE SWELL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS SATURDAY DICTATED
MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A NORTHEAST
FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS QUICKLY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SURGE OR
TWO THAT MAY INCREASE WINDS FURTHER AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND TO THE
INCREASE IN WINDS RISING FROM 2-3 FEET SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
AN ISOLATED FIVE FOOTER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A
SURGE OCCURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFIANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER VERY LATE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A HEALTHY 2-
4 FEET DEVELOPING UP FROM THE TEPID 1-3 FEET MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS BASED ON 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD COVER ALL AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE...MARION AND
MYRTLE BEACH BY 5-6 AM. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED EFFECT OF
INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS...SO I HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND NORTH BREEZE...SO IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT
THE REGION MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST
TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE
REGION WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG LIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORCING WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND BACK UP ABOVE THAT VALUE ON
SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN AREA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE CAN DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK 5H TROUGHING ON SUN WILL FILL MON AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES FLAT/PROGRESSIVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID LINGERING MOISTURE AND NO REAL CAPPING DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POP SUN/MON. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS 5H TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THE 5H TROUGH MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TUE INTO
WED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LEFT BEHIND...FORMING A SEMI CUTOFF LOW.
THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE STRONGER AND MEANDERS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. EITHER SOLUTION
RESULTS IN THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH POP
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. INHERITED FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE
POP WISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SO PLAN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/....
AS OF 06Z...LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT IN BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO
IFR...ALTHOUGH I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR OVER THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING GIVEN TRENDS OBSERVED IN 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRATUS SHOULD MAKE IT
DOWN EVEN TO THE MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08-10Z...WITH ALL
LOCAL AIRPORTS IN IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT LIFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM
AND LBT AIRPORTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 12Z.
STRATUS WILL BREAK A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT INTO A
DIURNAL VFR CU LAYER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...TURNING TO THE S/SE
AT THE COAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
DARK...LEAVING RESIDUAL VFR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FINAL NEAR-TERM UPDATE
OF THE NIGHT WAS TO REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES FOR "SLIGHT CHANCE" BEFORE
3 AM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. WINDS AND SEAS
MATCH PREVIOUS FORECASTS CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE
CONDITIONS FOR A NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AN SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY MON AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUE WITH WINDS MON BEING DRIVEN
MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. MODIFIED SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TUE BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON WIND FIELD. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...JDW/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
THROUGH 08 UTC AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY FADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FOG POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ORGANIZATION WITH 00 UTC RAP ANALYZED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND UPSTREAM. TWO GROUPS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN OUR AREA WITH
THE FIRST NEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG)
AND MODEST SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST GROUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING SUNDAY EVENING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED WAVE THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW/AT TIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE
WILL SEE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH PRECISE
TIMING/LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPECIFIC IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO
25 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO SIGNIIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY FADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FOG POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ORGANIZATION WITH 00 UTC RAP ANALYZEDDEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND UPSTREAM. TWO GROUPS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN OUR AREA WITH
THE FIRST NEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG)
AND MODEST SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST GROUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING SUNDAY EVENING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED WAVE THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW/AT TIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE
WILL SEE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH PRECISE
TIMING/LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPECIFIC IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO
25 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
723 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ORGANIZATION WITH 00 UTC RAP ANALYZEDDEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND UPSTREAM. TWO GROUPS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN OUR AREA WITH
THE FIRST NEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG)
AND MODEST SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST GROUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING SUNDAY EVENING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED WAVE THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW/AT TIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE
WILL SEE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH PRECISE
TIMING/LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNSET. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPECIFIC IMPACTS
AT ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CU THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR KMOT THROUGH 00Z.
AFTERWARDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ENTER/DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MID TO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
RADAR RETURNS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADARS. NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS
INDICATES ONLY VIRGA OR IF SOME RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. RADAR
RETURNS SEEN IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
AND NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST. OTHER SHOWERS
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST
RADAR LOOPS/TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT NO COHESIVE AREAL COVERAGE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS ARE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DID TONE DOWN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 22-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND RECENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS BLENDED
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND 20-22 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES PROPAGATING ATOP THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE. LATEST ITERATIONS OF HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE USED
THESE TO PAINT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS. STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE
IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THUS
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT AREA...BUT GENERALLY PLACEMENT TO THE
WEST AFTER THIS EVENING. WE DO START TO SEE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A CURVED UPPER
LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE AID OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING CAPE AND SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RATHER HEAVY
RAIN. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KDIK. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MAINLY
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO MVFR AT KISN AND KJMS FOR A SHORT TIME
PERIOD AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER/DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM CLUSTER W OF KAMA WILL MOVE E OVERNIGHT...BUT IS UNLIKELY
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON W OK. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW SHRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH
LIKE SATURDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW OK SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BEGIN A CHANCE OF TSRA IN FAR NW OK IN THE
EVENING...SPREADING E AND SE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEYOND.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... THOUGHTS ON PRECIP CHANCES IN NW TONIGHT...
DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WITH TEMPS... RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO
COOL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS
EVENING... UPPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO NWRN OK
LATER TONIGHT... THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME QPF AS WELL 06 TO 12Z.
STILL NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH... AS THE
SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE S/SE INTO KS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... BUT THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN N/NW IN KS THROUGH 12Z. CURRENT IR SAT LOOP SHOWS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS WELL AS THEY STREAM EWRD INTO THE ERN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK AS ANY INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE THROUGH
THIS EVENING ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER. FOR THE MOMENT...
WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF PRECIP GOING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... THE
INCOMING 00Z NAM DOES HAVE SOME BRIEF CONVECTION MID MORNING
TOMORROW. WITH SUCH A LOW PROB AT THE MOMENT... WILL WAIT FOR THE
ADDITIONAL 00Z GUIDANCE TO FOCUS ON TMRW MORNING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER THROUGH
00Z TOMORROW EVENING...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF -TSRA IN FAR NW OK
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 06Z.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST TO
GIVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD GENERATE A MCS IN SOUTHEAST CO OR KANSAS WHICH
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY MONDAY. LATER IN THE DAY, THE STALLED FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND, WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THESE EVENTS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARRIVE COINCIDENTALLY WITH A SURFACE FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 90 68 89 / 0 0 20 20
HOBART OK 70 91 68 90 / 0 0 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 90 64 86 / 10 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 69 88 / 0 10 50 30
DURANT OK 70 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... THOUGHTS ON PRECIP CHANCES IN NW TONIGHT...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WITH TEMPS... RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO
COOL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS
EVENING... UPPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO NWRN OK
LATER TONIGHT... THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME QPF AS WELL 06 TO 12Z.
STILL NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH... AS THE
SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE S/SE INTO KS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... BUT THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN N/NW IN KS THROUGH 12Z. CURRENT IR SAT LOOP SHOWS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS WELL AS THEY STREAM EWRD INTO THE ERN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK AS ANY INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE THROUGH
THIS EVENING ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER. FOR THE MOMENT...
WILL KEEP NO MENTION OF PRECIP GOING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... THE
INCOMING 00Z NAM DOES HAVE SOME BRIEF CONVECTION MID MORNING
TOMORROW. WITH SUCH A LOW PROB AT THE MOMENT... WILL WAIT FOR THE
ADDITIONAL 00Z GUIDANCE TO FOCUS ON TMRW MORNING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER THROUGH
00Z TOMORROW EVENING...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF -TSRA IN FAR NW OK
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 06Z.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST TO
GIVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD GENERATE A MCS IN SOUTHEAST CO OR KANSAS WHICH
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY MONDAY. LATER IN THE DAY, THE STALLED FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND, WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THESE EVENTS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARRIVE COINCIDENTALLY WITH A SURFACE FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 90 68 89 / 0 0 20 20
HOBART OK 70 91 68 90 / 0 0 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 90 64 86 / 10 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 69 88 / 0 10 50 30
DURANT OK 70 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CU CLOUD 35-45 HND FT MAINLY AR TAF SITES KFYV KXNA KROG KFSM
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TARGET...ONLY MINOR GRID TWEAKS FOR MORNING UPDATE.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 70 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
MLC 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 66 92 68 93 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 65 89 66 90 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 66 88 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
MKO 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 68 90 68 91 / 10 10 0 10
F10 68 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 68 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TARGET...ONLY MINOR GRID TWEAKS FOR MORNING UPDATE.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 90 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 90 67 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 88 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 89 66 88 68 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 90 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0
F10 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 88 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 90 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 90 67 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 88 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 89 66 88 68 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 90 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0
F10 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 88 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
725 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.
WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE GONE...A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL.
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
SPRINKLES NEARLY GONE NOW.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
STILL A FEW SPRINKLES...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SE.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
04Z HRRR DEPICTS A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. QPF WILL BE LIGHT
AND LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED.
WILL MODIFY POPS UPWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS
THIS MORNING...REFLECTING THE CONTINUE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
LIGHT SHOWERS /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/ WITHIN THE LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BRIGHTENING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY
FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. GEFS/SREF
OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700 J/KG ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO FORM IN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NW
PA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT
DIMINISH THE POPS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
STILL A FEW SPRINKLES...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SE.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
229 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
04Z HRRR DEPICTS A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. QPF WILL BE LIGHT
AND LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED.
WILL MODIFY POPS UPWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS
THIS MORNING...REFLECTING THE CONTINUE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
LIGHT SHOWERS /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/ WITHIN THE LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BRIGHTENING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY
FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. GEFS/SREF
OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700 J/KG ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO FORM IN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NW
PA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT
DIMINISH THE POPS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS AFTN
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE MTNS. THIS WAS WELL
DEPICTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH HAVE THE CONVECTION STEERING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO
THE CONVECTION IS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN SECTIONS. ANY CONVECTION THAT SURVIVES
TO THE PIEDMONT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A RELATIVE LULL WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO NW FLOW AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO MINS.
DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW
SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. ANY DAYBREAK MORNING
SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW SECTIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTN IN LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS.
HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME MEASURE OF
CAPPING THROUGHOUT. ANTICIPATE MAXES REBOUNDING ANOTHER CATEGORY
ABOVE FRI VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE U.S.
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE....A WEAK CAD
CONFIGURATION IS FORECAST IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE NE FLOW OVER
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SE BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AND THEN TO SW ON MONDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATTHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THANKS
TO WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GRADAULLY VEERS TO THE SE...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
GOOD BET OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION SHOULD FADE SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE DUE
TO WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE AT BEST INSTABILITY. MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY
SEE THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION AS SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MARGINALLY IMPROVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY AND THEN A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO ON MONDAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OUT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST. WE MAY BEGIN WITH A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
AND THUS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT ANCHORED.
INSTEAD... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROF DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY
SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE.
THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THUS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN-VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER END VFR CUMULUS AROUND
THE AIRFIELD UNTIL ANY WRN FOOTHILLS SHOWERS MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE
METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SE RUN IN ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE...WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
LIGHT NW WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY BUT WITH ANY SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD PIEDMONT
STRATUS AT DAYBREAK...BUT IT LOOKS MUCH MORE UNLIKELY THAN PREVIOUS
MORNINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WEAK CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTN AND STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH THIS SE THROUGH LATE AFTN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDER HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS SFC BASED
INSTABILITIES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL THUS MENTION ONLY VCSH AT KAVL
AND THE FOOTHILL SITES THROUGH AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NW
FLOW AT THE NC TAF SITES AND SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TOGGLING SW AT THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES IN WEAK LEE TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO N FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE
NAM HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS AT KAVL. WILL JUST HINT THIS WAY
WITH FEW010...BUT WILL GO THE CONSENSUS ROUTE ON VFR. ANY MORNING
SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING LOOK
TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT PRESENT.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNALLY FAVORED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW AND THEN WASHES OUT NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/PM
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD
AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90
AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL
A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO
WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT
MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29...
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH
BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE
TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML
CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT
DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A
NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL
THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY
WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION
WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS
OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KFSD AND
KSUX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT AND THEN LIFT BY LATE
MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z...BUT MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THESE WILL BE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 14 AND
INTERSTATE 90 AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KHON AND KFSD TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL STAY SOUTH OF
KSUX. AFTER 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN READILY WARMING THIS MORNING SO INCREASED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM REMNANT CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INHIBIT FULL
INSOLATION.
SECONDLY...EXAMINED HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL LATELY AND
THE TREND LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING TODAY AS INITIALIZATION WAS POOR
AND THE HRRR IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP. DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT UNTIL
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER...WILL LET THE
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
UPSTREAM IN MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION.
IT HAS BEEN SINCE OCTOBER 2ND 2014 SINCE WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE THINKS
WE WILL MAKE IT TO 90 DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. I HAVE MY DOUBTS...AND
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE APPROACHING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
HELPS JUSTIFY THOSE DOUBTS. FURTHERMORE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
TOO WARM LATELY. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...88 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT AND RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 4-6 DM OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE BENCHMARK OF 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 95
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT MIDDLE 90S ARE NOT LIKELY. WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES
FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOVE OUR DIRECTION...DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT GETTING CLOSER EACH NIGHT. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A FEW
STORMS REACH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR SUGGEST THEY WON`T BE VERY STRONG IF THE DO MAKE IT.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT I DO NOT SEE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER...THESE MCS`S ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT
MORE THAN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...SO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS
MAY BE IN ORDER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME OUR MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. WE
SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S INSTEAD OF UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 16Z HRRR
DEVELOPS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF TSRA DROPPING FROM JBR TO MEM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER INCORRECTLY INITIALING THE
SOURCE REGION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO AT 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...BUT WILL LEAVE A VCTS AT MEM AND INTRODUCE ONLY A SHORT
TEMPO TSRA AT JBR.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIVE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS GROUND FOG COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP AT MKL IF CLOUDS BREAK UP FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN READILY WARMING THIS MORNING SO INCREASED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM REMNANT CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INHIBIT FULL
INSOLATION.
SECONDLY...EXAMINED HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL LATELY AND
THE TREND LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING TODAY AS INITIALIZATION WAS POOR
AND THE HRRR IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP. DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT UNTIL
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER...WILL LET THE
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
UPSTREAM IN MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION.
IT HAS BEEN SINCE OCTOBER 2ND 2014 SINCE WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE THINKS
WE WILL MAKE IT TO 90 DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. I HAVE MY DOUBTS...AND
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE APPROACHING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
HELPS JUSTIFY THOSE DOUBTS. FURTHERMORE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
TOO WARM LATELY. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...88 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT AND RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 4-6 DM OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE BENCHMARK OF 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 95
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT MIDDLE 90S ARE NOT LIKELY. WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES
FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOVE OUR DIRECTION...DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT GETTING CLOSER EACH NIGHT. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A FEW
STORMS REACH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR SUGGEST THEY WON`T BE VERY STRONG IF THE DO MAKE IT.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT I DO NOT SEE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER...THESE MCS`S ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT
MORE THAN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...SO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS
MAY BE IN ORDER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME OUR MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. WE
SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S INSTEAD OF UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
30
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS COMPOSED OF UA LOW
DISTURBANCES IMPINGING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS...WHILST UA
RIDGING CONTINUED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE RATHER SLOW ENEWRD TRANSLATING UA LOW NOTED ACROSS SRN CALI IN
PARTICULAR HAS AIDED IN STREAMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS /INCLUDING
HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE ANDRES/ ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LOW SYSTEM NW OF THE
REGION HAS PROMOTED MODEST S-SE SFC BREEZES /10-20 MPH SUSTAINED/
AND THUS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS SUCH DESPITE AN UA
RIDGE OVERHEAD /AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND/...TEMPS
HAVE ONLY BEEN CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST CNTRL NM LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A MEAN
FLOW WIND OF 15-20 KTS DIRECTED OUT OF THE S-SW...THESE STORMS MAY
BE HARD-PRESSED TO REACH THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND THE HRRR DO HINT AT A FEW STRAY STORMS
THAT COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING. IF SO...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO AOA 5-10 MPH. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. TOMORROW...THE UA LOW
ACROSS SRN CALI WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO SRN NV HENCE MAKING VERY
LITTLE HEADWAY...WHILST THE UA RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...STORMS NEARING THE WRN/NWRN ZONES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EARLY EVENING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM. 29
.LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS TRENDS STILL APPEAR MOSTLY ON TRACK REQUIRING FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND UPPER
RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW
MORE PRESSURE FROM MOIST FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. LOW CHANCE THUNDER BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND EDGED AGAINST NORTHWEST CORNER STILL VALID. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFUSED WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HELP
MAXIMIZE THUNDER OPPORTUNITY BY TUESDAY. AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE SO PERHAPS
WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FAVORING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. AFTER THIS WAVE CLEARS TO THE EAST UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD
REBOUND NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ROGUE STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY BUT WE ARE HOLDING TO A DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS
SHOW. THEN...A MORE BULLISH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALSO
PERHAPS BECOMING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFUSED WITH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A MORE STOUT COLD FRONT ALSO MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY
EARLY SATURDAY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER
END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS SCENARIO. SO AS ALREADY
STATED...NOT MANY CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 85 63 87 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 64 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 64 87 64 88 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 65 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER NEAR KGLS...WENT WITH A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY GET AN
OCCASIONAL VFR CIG THIS AFTN. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD VFR CONDS. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING... WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. MAIN UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD MENTION OF THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS... ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
TOP OUT NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING... WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. MAIN UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD MENTION OF THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS... ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
TOP OUT NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
921 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN ERODE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 903 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE
PASSING A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE MID LEVEL CAP HOLDING AS MOST GUIDANCE WAS TOO UNSTABLE
WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE CAP BEING ERODED VIA COOLING
ALOFT WITH THE PASSING WAVE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOP OFF OLD OUTFLOW GIVEN SOME POOLING OF
MOISTURE PER LOSS OF MIXING AS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING CAPES
OF UP TO 1K J/KG. HOWEVER LOSS OF HEATING ALONG WITH A DRIER NE
FLOW LIKELY TO HINDER MUCH COVERAGE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE FAR SW
PER LATEST HRRR WHICH INSISTS ON SCATTERED COVERAGE UNTIL LATE.
THUS LEFT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHILE
BASICALLY REMOVING ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE
REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALSO TRIMMED BACK
CLOUDS TO INIT PER IR PICS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIGHT EAST/SE FLOW AIDS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV
NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING IN LATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW...LOW
STRATUS DECK LIKELY TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY.
WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS SHALLOW WEDGE
LIKELY TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY LATE IN THE
DAY. WHERE THE WEDGE ERODES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO FIRE. CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE. SPC HAS
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND BASED
OFF MODELS APPEARS A WIND THREAT EXISTS GIVEN SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES INCREASING WITH THE TROUGH. THE WINDS AT MID LEVELS OF
50 KTS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TO MULTICELLULAR NATURE AND
POSSIBLE A FEW LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH A LESS THREAT EAST BUT A THREAT NONETHELESS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER EARLY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THINK ENOUGH MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
SCOUR OUT ANY MORNING CLOUDS.
GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER EAST MONDAY...AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA AREAS EAST TO
SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC WITH LOWER THREAT INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS THIS PERIOD SWING TO SUMMER TIME WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS INTO THE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW 70S MTNS. TUESDAY COULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FROPA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S-NEAR 80S
MTNS TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
LOOKING AT TRANSITION TO MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK
AS WESTERLIES ARE GOING BE SHIFTED NWD ACROSS NRN U.S. INTO CANADA
WITH BROAD WEAK FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING.
EARLY THOUGH...THE 5H TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH AREA OF LIFT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...SO KEPT OVERALL DRY
FORECAST IN THE NW CWA...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE SOUTH/EAST
CWA.
THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL WILL CROSS FROM
TX/LA INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN MORE OF
A VERY WARM/HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WED-THU...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVE STORMS.
HIGHS WED-THU WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS...TO
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
ROANOKE.
UP UNTIL THEN...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT...BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS WEAKER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE IMPULSES TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
A STRONGER RIDGE AND LESS STORM COVERAGE/WARMER TEMPS. LEANED
TOWARD WPC SOLUTION OF ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND WHICH FAVORS A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT
STILL MAINTAIN HUMID/WARM AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST...SOME 70S IF MORE STORMS FORM TO MID TO UPPER 80 EAST.
THE ECMWF BRING SFC FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY STILL
MAINTAINING SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER US...SO KEPT POPS AROUND INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
NIGHTTIME LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD STAYING ELEVATED IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE NE FROM
NE TO SW THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME CLUSTERING
ALONG AND SW OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING
DECREASES A BIT. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...THEREFORE
WILL ONLY HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA IN A FEW SPOTS INTO THIS
EVENING.
MOISTENING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING A STRATUS DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS NOT SEEING CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE
PATCHY DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT
DRYNESS/MIXING AND LACK OF CONVECTION...SOME DOUBT TO THE DEGREE
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL VERY LATE SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR FOG
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF
REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC IN LOWERING CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO
IFR LATE WITH POSSIBLE LIFR IN STRATUS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS MAY AGAIN BE OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN TRENDS OFF MOST
SOLUTIONS PLAN TO ADD IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EITHER IN THE
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP LATE TONIGHT EXCLUDING KBLF WHERE WILL
BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE ERODING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AN
AREA IS FREE OF THE WEDGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN RIDGES. OTRW MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO LIFT TO MVFR OR BETTER...AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OVERALL VFR EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE
NIGHT- EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-
VFR AT TIMES INTO MID OR LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS THE WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST EXPECTED WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE NOW SHOWING
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH 12Z SOUNDING VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES AT KRNK...ABOUT 120
PERCENT OF NORMAL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE OPENING UP PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL ERODE AND BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION BY A WEAK FRONT DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MURKY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SHOW
MARKED IMPROVEMENT TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE EXTRA SUN AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE LOW THANKS TO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...ENHANCED
ALOFT BY SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK
OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FRONT WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE THE THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. MODELS BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS WEDGE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
MAY KEEP WEDGE FEATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM
TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITIES WITH
THIS FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. KEPT SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
EXISTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR KROA AND WESTWARD AND VCSH FURTHER
EAST IN THE MORE STABLE AIR. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES
EAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY STALL
OUT IN THE GENERAL AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR STILL MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1037 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS THE WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST EXPECTED WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE NOW SHOWING
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH 12Z SOUNDING VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES AT KRNK...ABOUT 120
PERCENT OF NORMAL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE OPENING UP PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL ERODE AND BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION BY A WEAK FRONT DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MURKY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SHOW
MARKED IMPROVEMENT TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE EXTRA SUN AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE LOW THANKS TO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...ENHANCED
ALOFT BY SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK
OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FRONT WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE THE THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. MODELS BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS WEDGE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
MAY KEEP WEDGE FEATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM
TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITIES WITH
THIS FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. KEPT SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY AND THE PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT SO EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR STARTING IN THE WEST AND PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BEING THE CASE...LOCATIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE MOST SUN AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE VCTS TO COVER THIS
SITUATION AS SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
REMAIN UNDEFINED THIS FAR OUT. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION WITH AT LEAST TEMPO
MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CEILINGS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
206 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
EXPECTED QUIET WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY
ANTICYCLONIC. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOTED ACRS CNTRL WI AND
ALSO A DRIER SURGE COMING DOWN THE LAKE SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT
IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S FOR
WESTERN 2/3RDS OR SO OF THE CWA.
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH
NUDGING SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LLVL RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER SOME SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EARLY SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM
MOS AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES ZONAL AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES
TO AROUND 85 KNOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THE WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. AT 500 MB THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES CHAOTIC DUE TO THE MODEL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A SUNDAY MORNING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE 700 MB SPEED MAX PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE 925 MB LAYER RELATIVELY COOLER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION. 925 MB LAYERS WARM AGAIN DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON. ON THE SLOWER GFS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS DOES
INCREASE THE ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 2000 JOULES/KG
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PRODUCES GREATER POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAN THE NAM.
THE GFS NSHARP DOES SHOW A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR WITH MORE OF A CURVED HODOGRAPH. THERE DOES SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL
OF LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE MID LEVELS DRY TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH MUCH LESS CAPE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS WEAK TO MODERATE
UPWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...BUT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY NORTH TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. THEN THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASES THURSDAY ON THE FASTER GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STILL DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
.FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER...SLOWER AND MORE BROAD TROUGH BACK
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE GFS PUTS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT FROM IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LLVL RH
DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BORDERLINE GUSTS COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
&&
.BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL WATER TEMPS AND AIR
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
...WILL CONTINUE THE PRIOR SHIFT IDEA OF NOT ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. IN FACT ONLY A
FEW IFR CIGS LINGER WITH CIGS MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. COOL NE
FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 2 MB/3HR PRES RISE BUBBLE NOTED VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
FOR THE AFTN HRS HOWEVER SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. LLVL
RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
EARLY CONCERN IS WITH FOG AS COOL...MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE EVEN COLDER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. NNE WINDS ARE BRINGING THIS FOG INLAND A FEW MILES. OBS
AND WEB CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY 1 TO 3 MILE
VSBYS...WITH OCCASIONAL 1/4 TO 3/4 MILE. WILL KEEP HANDLING WITH SPS
FOR LAND AND MWS FOR THE LAKE FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. SREF VSBY
PROBS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIFT FOG BY MID-MORNING.
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE COOL WITH ONSHORE NE WINDS
HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 50S ALONG THE SHORE.
LOW TO MID 70S HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
NAM APPEARS TO BEE OVERREACTING TO ALONG SHORE CONVERGENCE AS WINDS
TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEAST...DEVELOPING A POCKET OF SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND PUSHING THEM INLAND AS
FAR AS MSN BY 12Z. WILL TREND WITH MAJORITY SOLUTION AND KEEP
TONIGHT DRY. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW-MID 50S LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS...COOLER IN THE EAST WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SKIES MAY START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH SLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND NORMAL MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM COOLER
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
A SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY JUST TO
THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
MILD...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE. STUCK TO HIGHS NEAR A
MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THE SUN POKES OUT FOR A TIME.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN MODEL TEMPS ALOFT...COULD HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF
THE YEAR TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH IFR VSBYS AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST WITH COOL
MOIST NE WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF
PROBABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL LIFT AND
THEN MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY 15Z...THOUGH NAM GUIDANCE
KEEPS MVFR CLOUDS AT EASTERN-MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
WILL FOLLOW WITH THE EARLIER CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH NAM HAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION OF MVFR
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z SATURDAY AS WINDS
TURN MORE EAST NORTHEAST. WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONSENSUS FORECAST.
MARINE...WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 19Z THROUGH
06Z SAT. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH AS MODELS
RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE LATER END TIME WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ISSUING MWS FOR FOG OVER THE LAKE. OBS AND WEB
CAMS SHOW VARYING VSBYS...SO NOT CONSIDERING A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITY
FORECASTS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL LIFT AND THEN MIX OUT
THE FOG BY 15Z.
BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL
WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE LATER IN THE DAY
TIME PERIOD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TIME TO LOOK AT UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED...BUT WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/WAVE HEIGHTS TO ISSUE/
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE
STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MORRILL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS
DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST.
NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START
GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO
25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AREAS THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND A BOUNDARY WILL GIVE THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO
CHEYENNE THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT KCYS...KIBM...KSNY
AND KBFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1012 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY OVER
VALLEYS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. WEAK DELTA BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THROUGH THE DELTA AND 15 MPH INLAND TO SACRAMENTO. THIS IS AT
LEAST PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS VERSUS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING OVER NORCAL. A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW WITH UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE IN
THE VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED MORE VALLEY AREAS WITH SOME MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY
MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROGGED WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW DAYS, ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTORM INTO THE VALLEY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AS RIDGING RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY WITH 70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
946 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WINDING DOWN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND MOSTLY BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY
DECREASING OVER WESTERN NV AND WE HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER A BIT
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY INCLUDING KTRK AND POSSIBLY
KLOL WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT. HOHMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GOOD INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR. IT PUSHED IN
FROM IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SIERRA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ELKO COUNTY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM TO 11PM THIS
EVENING. WE BUMPED UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECONDARY WAVE.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORM CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.LARGE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH STORMS HAVING A FAIRLY QUICK
STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY FROM THE NNE TO SSW DIRECTION FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF MULTIPLE
CELLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING GOOD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 5PM AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES WEST OF THE SIERRA.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES DOWN ON THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. WARMING ALOFT WILL CAP ANY
CONVECTION THAT STARTS TO GET GOING. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, SO
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVED TO MEDIUM THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
INCREASED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AND SOUTHERN NV. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY,
BUT COULD END UP EVEN COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER OR
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS SET UP.
FOR THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
MOSTLY NEAR THE SIERRA. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV, DRIER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO BUILD IN, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.
FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE BUILDING INTO CA-NV WILL
CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT, BUT BY SATURDAY
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BECOME TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. MJD
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21-01Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS THRU THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION AND THE MAIN TERMINALS AS DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR KMMH WHERE ISOLD
CB TOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE
SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND
FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY, BUT WILL STALL OUT
AND WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND THE FRONT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AND
HAVE INSERTED TSRA/CB TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 65 84 / 10 20 50 10
GCK 65 91 63 83 / 20 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 63 82 / 20 30 50 20
LBL 66 93 65 84 / 10 30 60 20
HYS 66 89 62 84 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 68 87 / 0 10 60 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE
MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S EACH
AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM
SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND LIKELY
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LOWERING VIS THROUGH 12Z. LOW
CLOUDS LEFT PARTS OF THE REGION FROM NEAR SJS WEST ALONG THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR NORTH TO NEAR SYM SUPPRESSED AS FAR AS TEMPS ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THESE AREAS HAD HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AND VIS AND OR CIG BELOW
AIRPORT MINS ACROSS THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE SJS AND SYM BY 9Z OR
SO. OTHER NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR FOG...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY WORSE VIS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY
AFTER 16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR VIS WITH THIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN
SYM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS A STRENGTHENING SW WIND ADVECTS MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...EXPECT SHRA TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE W-E OVER UPR MI. WHILE THERE MAY BE A TS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AT IWD...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTER AIR WL ALSO CAUSE LOWER MVFR AND THEN IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP W-E...REACHING SAW BY SUNRISE. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AS WELL. THE SHRA WL DIMINISH W-E LATER THIS MRNG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN
LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW LATER IN THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A LOWER MVFR CIG AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS A STRENGTHENING SW WIND ADVECTS MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...EXPECT SHRA TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE W-E OVER UPR MI. WHILE THERE MAY BE A TS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AT IWD...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTER AIR WL ALSO CAUSE LOWER MVFR AND THEN IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP W-E...REACHING SAW BY SUNRISE. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AS WELL. THE SHRA WL DIMINISH W-E LATER THIS MRNG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN
LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW LATER IN THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A LOWER MVFR CIG AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN
TRACK SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. EXPECT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO FOLLOW INTO THE W GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
...Warmest Day So Far This Season On The Way Today...Strong to
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Tonight...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Convection ended early in the evening with a clearing sky by late
this evening. Wind has stayed up during the evening and should
help to prevent some of the fog we had last night. BBG has dropped
to calm wind which is typical there and have continued to mention
MVFR fog overnight there. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
re-enter the forecast on Sunday night, but have not included in
this forecast package with the main convection expected to remain
northwest of the TAF sites until after 06z. So for now, have
generally gone with VFR through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
TSRA ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU
IA/NEB. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CLEARED KOFK AND EXPECT A FEW CELLS
AT KOMA THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS FOR KLNK...LATEST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AREA OF TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB WILL
REACH KLNK AROUND 08Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE 06Z KLBF TAF FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL CLIMB TO 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT
AGL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THINKING
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED FOG MENTION TO PATCHY FOR THIS
UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LOW VSBYS ONLY IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. JAMESTOWN MAY BE THE ONLY AREA WHERE FOG HAS A
BETTER POTENTIAL. DESPITE HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WEST...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NOW...BUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S IN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...MUST ADMIT THAT
FORECASTING FOG IS NOT EASY...AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE SHOULD TRENDS
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
THROUGH 08 UTC AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY FADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FOG POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ISOLATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ORGANIZATION WITH 00 UTC RAP ANALYZED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND UPSTREAM. TWO GROUPS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN OUR AREA WITH
THE FIRST NEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG)
AND MODEST SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST GROUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING SUNDAY EVENING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED WAVE THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW/AT TIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE
WILL SEE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH PRECISE
TIMING/LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SPECIFIC IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT KJMS FOR 3SM BR FROM 09Z-13Z. IFR
VSBYS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND GETTING 1/4SM
VSBYS ALREADY AT GRAFTON/RDR AND HCO AND EXPECT AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN VALLEY TO SEE DENSE FOG. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE THROUGH 12Z. THE RAP INDICATES PORTIONS OF
NW MN MAY ALSO HAVE DENSE FOG TONIGHT...SO AN EXPANSION OF THE FOG
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG
ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY CURRENT RAIN EVENT AND LATER LOW END
PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE BLEND.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHIFTING INTO NW MN AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND CAPE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER ANY SEVERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLD IF ANY
GET THAT STRONG. OTHERWISE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE MOST PCPN OUT OF THE
FA NEAR 06Z AND TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON THE MILD SIDE.
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CROSSES FA TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE AND DIMINISHED POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. FA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS AS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE
MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. GFS BEGINS TO DEVELOP MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN US
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHEREAS THE 12Z EC MAINTAINS
NW FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING HEAVIER RAINS IN SD. THE GFS
BRINGS THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE TIMING AND OF COURSE PLACEMENT IN
QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE...IN THE
70S...DEPENDENT HIGHLY ON CLOUD COVER AND MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE THE BEST FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN ERODE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING STARTING
WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND TRENDED TOWARDS LAMP MOS. MODIFIED CLOUD
COVER WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHAPED TOWARDS MOSGUIDE. SLOWED
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODIFIED POPS
WITH WSR-88D TRENDS ALLOWING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
AS OF 903 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE
PASSING A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE MID LEVEL CAP HOLDING AS MOST GUIDANCE WAS TOO UNSTABLE
WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE CAP BEING ERODED VIA COOLING
ALOFT WITH THE PASSING WAVE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOP OFF OLD OUTFLOW GIVEN SOME POOLING OF
MOISTURE PER LOSS OF MIXING AS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING CAPES
OF UP TO 1K J/KG. HOWEVER LOSS OF HEATING ALONG WITH A DRIER NE
FLOW LIKELY TO HINDER MUCH COVERAGE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE FAR SW
PER LATEST HRRR WHICH INSISTS ON SCATTERED COVERAGE UNTIL LATE.
THUS LEFT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHILE
BASICALLY REMOVING ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE
REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALSO TRIMMED BACK
CLOUDS TO INIT PER IR PICS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIGHT EAST/SE FLOW AIDS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV
NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING IN LATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW...LOW
STRATUS DECK LIKELY TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY.
WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS SHALLOW WEDGE
LIKELY TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY LATE IN THE
DAY. WHERE THE WEDGE ERODES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO FIRE. CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE. SPC HAS
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND BASED
OFF MODELS APPEARS A WIND THREAT EXISTS GIVEN SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES INCREASING WITH THE TROUGH. THE WINDS AT MID LEVELS OF
50 KTS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TO MULTICELLULAR NATURE AND
POSSIBLE A FEW LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH A LESS THREAT EAST BUT A THREAT NONETHELESS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER EARLY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THINK ENOUGH MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
SCOUR OUT ANY MORNING CLOUDS.
GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER EAST MONDAY...AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA AREAS EAST TO
SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC WITH LOWER THREAT INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS THIS PERIOD SWING TO SUMMER TIME WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS INTO THE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW 70S MTNS. TUESDAY COULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FROPA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S-NEAR 80S
MTNS TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
LOOKING AT TRANSITION TO MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK
AS WESTERLIES ARE GOING BE SHIFTED NWD ACROSS NRN U.S. INTO CANADA
WITH BROAD WEAK FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING.
EARLY THOUGH...THE 5H TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH AREA OF LIFT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...SO KEPT OVERALL DRY
FORECAST IN THE NW CWA...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE SOUTH/EAST
CWA.
THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL WILL CROSS FROM
TX/LA INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN MORE OF
A VERY WARM/HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WED-THU...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVE STORMS.
HIGHS WED-THU WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS...TO
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
ROANOKE.
UP UNTIL THEN...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT...BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS WEAKER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE IMPULSES TO RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
A STRONGER RIDGE AND LESS STORM COVERAGE/WARMER TEMPS. LEANED
TOWARD WPC SOLUTION OF ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND WHICH FAVORS A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT
STILL MAINTAIN HUMID/WARM AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST...SOME 70S IF MORE STORMS FORM TO MID TO UPPER 80 EAST.
THE ECMWF BRING SFC FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY STILL
MAINTAINING SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER US...SO KEPT POPS AROUND INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
NIGHTTIME LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD STAYING ELEVATED IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST. MOISTENING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING A STRATUS DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS A
CHALLENGE AND APPEARS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS DELAYED TIMING COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK DOES
NOT FORM.
THERE IS LOWER CONFIENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUD
CLOUDS THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT DRYNESS/MIXING AND LACK OF
CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS A WINDOW FOR FOG AFTER 09Z THIS
MORNING.
MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SREF REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC IN
LOWERING CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO IFR WITH POSSIBLE LIFR IN
STRATUS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT
GIVEN TRENDS OFF MOST SOLUTIONS PLAN TO KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS EITHER IN THE PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING
EXCLUDING KBLF WHERE WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING
WEDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE ERODING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AN
AREA IS FREE OF THE WEDGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN RIDGES. OTRW MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO LIFT TO MVFR OR BETTER...AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OVERALL VFR EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE
NIGHT- EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-
VFR AT TIMES INTO MID OR LATE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A POTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR MADISON BY 7AM. IT IS AN ACTIVE
MCV WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALL
COME ROLLING IN THEN OUT BETWEEN 10-16Z THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS STUFF COULD MAINTAIN A DECENT
BOW-LIKE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WARNINGS UPSTREAM HAVE ENDED
FOR THE TIME BEING AND THAT MAY BE IT FOR SEVERE WITH THIS ROUND
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PUSHING 40KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY FROM THE 40S AND 50S
TO THE MID 60S AS IT MOVES IN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS HITTING 50
KTS JUST 1.5-2KFT FEET UP WITH THE CORE OF THE LLV JET...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH TO MIX THAT MOMENTUM DOWN FOR SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE.
NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO QUICK FLOODING.
THIS MCV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY 9 TO 11 AM. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS WITHOUT PRECIP. THEN WE
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF WE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH AND BUILD THE CAPE
UP BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN EXIT QUICKLY INTO ILLINOIS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEPT FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT THRESHOLD WHERE
IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A TAD COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED HAIL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
EXPECTED. SO NATURALLY...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE STORMS THIS MORNING. THESE MORNING STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF KMSN BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 16-
17Z.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY
KMKE/KENW. THIS THREAT WOULD JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM ABOUT MILWAUKEE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BEACHES...A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
ELEVATED WAVES. BUT THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF A HIGH RISK. THAT
SAID...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S...SO HYPOTHERMIA IS
LIKELY THE GREATER THREAT TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1022 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE
STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MORRILL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS
DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST.
NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START
GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO
25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WYOMING TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE FROM
08Z TO 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR.
NEBRASKA TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THEN
BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
AFTER DENSE FOG INUNDATED PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BASED OF VIS SAT
AND AREA WEBCAMS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED WITH MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED DEEPER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG. WARM AND SOME WHAT MUGGY
DAY STILL ON TAP WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
COULD ALSO HELP TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER...HOWEVER BASED ON MESO MODELS THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLIGHT SIDE. INCREASE IN CIRRUS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP ZFP AND HWO TO REMOVE MORNING
FOG WORDING. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING VIS AND OR CIGS TO AIRPORT MINS
AT ALL BUT SJS WHERE THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. THE LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER
16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR VIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN SYM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FOG ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING VIS AND OR CIGS TO AIRPORT MINS
AT ALL BUT SJS WHERE THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. THE LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR VIS BY 14Z AT THE
LATEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER
16Z...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCES A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR VIS. CONVECTION MIGHT ALSO THREATEN SYM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAS SPREAD THRU ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITHIN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE
ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
OUR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL NOT CLEAR OUR
CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REPRESENTED IN THE GOING
FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM WEST OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. WILL NEED TO RELY ON SOME CLEARING TO PRODUCE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CLEARING/INSTABILITY EVOLVES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
...SHOWERS MOVING IN...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE WORKING ACROSS THE NC PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SWATH OF MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ STRETCHED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BACK
THROUGH IOWA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT. FORCING IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND OF COURSE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND SFC LOW. GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA/MO...WITH LITTLE TO NONE FROM NRN WI AND
AREAS NORTH OF THERE. THUNDER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNEAPOLIS...BUT WAS MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THERE. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT 00Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWS HOW DRY WE CURRENTLY ARE...WITH PWATS AT 0.32". THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING...BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE UPSTREAM IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT ROLLS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY...PUSHING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WAA/DPVA AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION (TO 1.75" PWATS)
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. BEST FORCING IS TIED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM MCV FROM CONVECTION IN SRN MN/IA...WHICH ROLLS RIGHT ACROSS
NRN LOWER. CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND MODEL SFC TD`S TOO
HIGH...LIKELY DENYING THEIR INSISTENCE ON CREATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALL THE HINTS FOR THIS RESIDE WELL SOUTH FROM SRN LOWER
BACK THROUGH NRN IN/IL...WITHIN STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET AND
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.
FOR US...WE HAVE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FIRST...WHICH WILL HOLD
OFF THE START TIME FOR SHOWERS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE
THAT A LATE MORNING START ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN NRN LOWER
IS GOOD...PUSHING THROUGH NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...A RESULT OF POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN EASTERN WI (BEHIND THE INITIAL CURRENT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION). THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY BE SUSTAINED ALONG
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES US TONIGHT. THE KEY IS HOW FAST THE FRONT
GETS HERE...A NEBULOUS PART OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TREND WILL BE
FOR DRYING HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH...WARMING UP PRIOR TO THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS
NE LOWER...AND WARMING UP BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINS WILL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED WHILE RAINING...BUT CAN
SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF NRN
LOWER...AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER.
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S...LOWER 60S FAR SE IN
DOWNSLOPING AND LAST TO COOL LOCALES BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD MAYBE BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THAT (AS USUAL) IS DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER SHOT AT STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING AS WE WELCOME THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AS OVERALL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN FINDS ITSELF BENEATH THE
FAMILIAR REGIME OF PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. IN THIS CASE...IT
STILL APPEARS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PAY THE AREA A VISIT...WITH
THE FIRST AND MOST PRONOUNCED ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON (TIED TO A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY)...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY IS A NOTABLE ONE...WITH PWAT VALUES TAKING A DIVE FROM VERY
HIGH LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES TOWARD SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
"NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - GENERALLY IN THE 0.9 INCH RANGE.
THAT IS NOTED DOWN LOW BY A DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BACK
THROUGH THE 50S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLAVOR FOR MONDAY...AS WE
AWAIT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING AFTER 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF
THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE STILL LOOKS TO SPILL
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP STEEPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL WHILE WEAK
GRADIENT/LIGHTER WIND REGIME LIKELY ALLOWS FOR SOME TURNING OF THE
WINDS ONSHORE LOCALLY. BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW MEETING UP LAKE
HURON ONSHORE COMPONENT LOOKS TO DO ITS USUAL THING OF FORCING
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF BETTER POOLING OF MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 800J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS NOTED INTO INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AS WELL (AS WE
OFTEN SEE IN BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW REGIMES)...WITH INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT LESS BUT PUSHING 500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT
WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK PUSH OF BETTER UPPER FORCING (MAINLY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING)...AND THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DIURNAL
UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS TO
OUR WEST OVER WISCONSIN BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY TRY ITS BEST TO SNEAK OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF IT WILL FALL APART
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH CERTAINLY HAVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING WILL HELP A LITTLE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LIMITED
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH GIVEN LOW FREEZING/WET BULB 0
LEVELS DOWN NEAR 9KFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES PERHAPS NEARING 30
KNOTS FOR A TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORMS PUT OUT
SOME SMALLER HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...
THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND BETTER
LAPSE RATES SWINGING THROUGH...FEEL THE NEED TO EXTEND SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. CLEARING AND REMAINING HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE (HELPED ALONG WHEREVER IT HAPPENS TO RAIN) STRONGLY
ARGUES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION...WITH
SOME OF THAT POTENTIALLY RATHER DENSE WITH A POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES
COMPONENT. AFTER THAT...GETTING A GOOD VIBE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ROLLS OVERHEAD.
THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED
RIBBON OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES UP INTO THE REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIED TO QUITE THE PROGRESSIVE/STRONG
SHORTWAVE RUNNING THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONG GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE UP THIS
WAY...BUT BASED ON THE SETUP HONESTLY THINK THIS MAY BE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO FOLD OVER FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD DOWN INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RACING
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WE CAN
SNEAK THIS FAR NORTH...BUT STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT DO AT
LEAST GIVE ONE PAUSE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
TO SURVIVE THE JOURNEY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURPRISE...SURPRISE. AS EXPECTED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGLY TRENDED AGAINST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...OWING TO BETTER AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THUS FORCING OUR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTHEAST AREAS FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TREND IS FOR A RATHER NICE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...COMPLETE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS
GIVEN AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR (AKA WARM DAYS...COOLISH NIGHTS). RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...THOUGH STILL LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. CERTAINLY A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID/MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLE IFR...
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS IS EXPECTED...BEFORE A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CROSS THE AIRPORTS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL START IN NW LOWER 13-16Z...EXITING NE LOWER
21-00Z. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...BUT MOISTENING. AFTER THE RAIN
STARTS...IT`LL TAKE SOME TIME TO DROP CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND NW WHILE
WEAKENING.
THIS EVENING IS RATHER NEBULOUS. COULD SEE PLN/APN...MAYBE TVC
STUCK IN SOME POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS...WHILE MBL IS MOST
LIKELY TO SCOUR OUT THE IFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF PLN/APN. CONFIDENCE IS THIS
IS LOW...THE ACTUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. PLN COULD
BE STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TRENDS SUPPORT
EVENTUALLY SCOURING OUT MVFR/IFR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THAT SCENARIO.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
WATER SFC...BUT CAN SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE NW LOWER SHORELINE...AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT...AND WINDS START TO SUBSIDE AS
THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A
WEAKISH GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM RAIN AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS DROPPED CIGS TO LOW MVFR OR IFR EARLY TODAY ALTHOUGH A
DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW HAS TEMPORARILY BROUGHT CIGS UP AT IWD CMX. AS
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND W...EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AGAIN. WITH A
STRONG SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC...PLAN ON LLWS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. THE SHRA WILL DIMINISH W-E THIS MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND
SAW LATE TODAY...BUT UPSLOPE W WIND AT CMX OFF THE COLD LAKE SUPERIOR
WATERS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN AN IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON THAT MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING POPS INTO MORNING PERIOD. MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHES OF WHAT APPEAR TO BE ACCAS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS...AND HENCE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHRA IN THE MORNING...AND EXPAND
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY EAST. ANALYSIS OF 12Z RAOBS DOES NOT REVEAL AN
ATMOSPHERE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND PW VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.5 IN. HENCE KEEPING FORECAST POPS
AT 20 OR LESS LOOKS REASONABLE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
SUFFERING FROM A SIGNIFICANT WARM/DRY BIAS SHOWING TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 90S OVER PARTS OF THE AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE 50S. CURRENT FORECAST OF MAXES IN LOWER 90S SEEM REASONABLE...
WITH BETTER MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MS WHERE
KBMX RAOB SHOWS DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEG OR
SO IN THOSE EASTERN AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. AREA AROUND KMEI
HAS ALSO SEEN MUCH LESS RAINFALL LAST MONTH THAN MOST AREAS WHICH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MID CLOUDINESS IMPACTING KGLH AND THE JACKSON
AREA SITES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR. EXPECT SOME
LOWER BASED CUMULUS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KHBG SO WILL
EVALUATE THAT FURTHER FOR 18Z TAFS. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT)...THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
QUIET AS MEAN DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
REDUCING PRECIP POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW ISO SHOWERS ON
SAT...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR. LOOK FOR THIS ISO
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BE MORE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MS
RIVER. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...BUT EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT IS IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH A
FEW PLACES BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. OVERALL...89-92 IS
THE PRIMARY RANGE AND THIS IS 1-2 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREV
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG PART OF THE FORECAST GOING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR HIGHS MONDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS/TSRA IN THE FAR N. BY LATE
IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY MON NGT...WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN
SOME AS A DECENT S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND HELPS LOWER
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV BUT
WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL...INCREASED ASCENT AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY
STARTING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR N AND LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT MOVES MORE INTO THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME...THIS SETUP SEEMS TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH ELEMENTS MISSING AT THIS TIME TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL WE GET CLOSER. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. /CME/
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A MID/
UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN
UPPER JET MAX EXTENDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION. ALONG WITH A DISSIPATING
SURFACE FRONT AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION, THIS
WOULD PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED HIGHER POPS INTO TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND THE STRONGER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, BUT WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGHING AND GENERALLY LOWER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS, PROVIDING CONTINUED ABOVE-CLIMO POPS,
THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST, BUT AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND (OR
PERHAPS EVEN INCREASE ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS PWAT PROGS). THUS
CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GREATER THAN TYPICAL DAYTIME COVERAGE
EXPECTED. /DL/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONDITION THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SITES BRIEFING REACHING MVFR VIS
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 10-13Z. /CME/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
Pilots can expect favorable flight conditions today with VFR
conditions prevailing at area terminals.
A cold front will approach from the north late tonight bringing an
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms primarily after
06z tonight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
STRONG PAC NW RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. THERE STILL EXISTS
SOME PV IN THE STRONGER NW FLOW OVER FAR EASTERN MT. THIS COUPLED
WITH SOME VERY MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR AREAS OF VIRGA ACROSS MAINLY OUR SE
PARTS THIS AFTN...AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING. OTHERWISE CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK TSTM OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS EITHER.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET WX DAY.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OUR FLOW ALOFT HAS
TURNED FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT AND IS LESS LIKELY
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS
HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED POPCORN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WRF DOES SHOW SOME VERY WEAK
ENERGY ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THE RAPID REFRESH MAY ALSO BE PICKING UP ON SOMEWHAT
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR SO FAR HAS MAINLY
AFFECTED OUR WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT WANT TO ADVERTISE
THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DECENT SHOWERS TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND SUCH WEAK TRIGGERS AVAILABLE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE THE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.
BY TONIGHT WE CERTAINLY HAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMP PROGGS REACH 26C/28C TRANSLATING TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. EASILY OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR...BUT NOT
REALLY CLOSE TO ANY DAILY RECORDS. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO NORTH...BUT
IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A DRY FRONT. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MAIN FOCUS IS AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING
TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND AID
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL TOP THE
RIDGE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...LOOKS LIKE SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN ENERGY
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ALSO LOOKS TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. PRECIPITATABLE
WATERS ALSO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME EFFICIENT RAINERS
AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY LATER ON THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. FRIEDERS/SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 058/090 061/084 059/079 056/075 054/082 055/082
0/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 62/T 21/B 11/B
LVM 082 052/090 055/085 057/078 052/076 050/082 050/080
0/B 00/U 02/T 46/T 62/T 21/B 22/T
HDN 083 054/091 057/086 059/083 056/076 054/084 055/084
1/B 00/U 00/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
MLS 083 059/091 061/083 059/078 057/074 054/080 055/082
0/B 00/U 10/U 45/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
4BQ 080 055/088 059/084 059/079 056/071 052/079 054/081
1/B 00/B 00/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
BHK 081 054/089 057/083 054/074 052/070 048/077 050/080
1/B 00/B 10/U 35/T 63/T 21/B 11/B
SHR 078 049/085 053/082 054/079 053/070 049/077 049/079
1/B 00/B 01/U 35/T 64/T 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOUD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
TWO COMPLEXES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR
THE FCST AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING COMPLEX ACROSS THE
SRN PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE FCST AREA 19Z-21Z. A
SECOND AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP PER HRRR...ACROSS SWRN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
526 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE 06Z KLBF TAF FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL CLIMB TO 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT
AGL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI
WITH SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE. SFC LOW VCNTY LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
TRAILING FRONT INTO WRN WI/SE MN/ERN IA. MCV ASSOC WITH MORNING
COMPLEX SHIFTING EAST INTO LWR MI WHILE WATER VAPOR AND VSBL
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER SPEED MAX LIFTING NEWD INTO NW WI. MESO
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD/SCT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND WITH
ENOUGH HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARRIVES. WILL HAVE A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
INTO WI MON AFTN/EVE FOR RENEWED TSRA CHANCES.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A POTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR MADISON BY 7AM. IT IS AN ACTIVE
MCV WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALL
COME ROLLING IN THEN OUT BETWEEN 10-16Z THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS STUFF COULD MAINTAIN A DECENT
BOW-LIKE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WARNINGS UPSTREAM HAVE ENDED
FOR THE TIME BEING AND THAT MAY BE IT FOR SEVERE WITH THIS ROUND
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PUSHING 40KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY FROM THE 40S AND 50S
TO THE MID 60S AS IT MOVES IN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS HITTING 50
KTS JUST 1.5-2KFT FEET UP WITH THE CORE OF THE LLV JET...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH TO MIX THAT MOMENTUM DOWN FOR SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE.
NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO QUICK FLOODING.
THIS MCV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY 9 TO 11 AM. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS WITHOUT PRECIP. THEN WE
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF WE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH AND BUILD THE CAPE
UP BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN EXIT QUICKLY INTO ILLINOIS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEPT FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT THRESHOLD WHERE
IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A TAD COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED HAIL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
EXPECTED. SO NATURALLY...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE STORMS THIS MORNING. THESE MORNING STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF KMSN BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 16-
17Z.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY
KMKE/KENW. THIS THREAT WOULD JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM ABOUT MILWAUKEE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES...A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
ELEVATED WAVES. BUT THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF A HIGH RISK. THAT
SAID...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S...SO HYPOTHERMIA IS
LIKELY THE GREATER THREAT TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
455 PM CDT
REPORTS CONTINUE TO COME IN OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANKAKEE COUNTY ARE
TAKING ON A WIND SIGNATURE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW
JET. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS MAY START TO SPREAD MORE
SOUTHEAST AS THESE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF
IROQUOIS...NEWTON...AND JASPER COUNTIES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE.
DEUBELBEISS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCT TSRA MOVING THROUGH 23-01 OR 02Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
A LINGERING BROKEN LINE OF TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA BETWEEN 23 AND
01 AND MAYBE 02Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN BROKEN SO IT MAY NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT WILL BE CLOSE BY.
OTHERWISE...SPOTTY TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE NEAR GYY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR BUT THEN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH BUT THE BAND TO
THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL TOWARD 01Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT
OF THE TERMINALS FOR MID EVENING WITH STEADY WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAID OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT TSRA CROSSING THE TERMINAL AREA
INTO EARLY EVENING...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
457 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
455 PM CDT
REPORTS CONTINUE TO COME IN OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANKAKEE COUNTY ARE
TAKING ON A WIND SIGNATURE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW
JET. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS MAY START TO SPREAD MORE
SOUTHEAST AS THESE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF
IROQUOIS...NEWTON...AND JASPER COUNTIES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE.
DEUBELBEISS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPING TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAYED OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
436 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
435 PM CDT
A COUPLE STRONG SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MESOSITE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS
DO SHOW BACKED WINDS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE MID 70S MAY TEMPER BUOYANCY OF BL PARCELS SOME...BUT THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM NEAR PONTIAC TO
VALPARAISO. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LINE RESULTING IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF 1.9-2.0 INCH PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE POOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEEP MOISTURE
/TROPICAL-LIKE SOUNDINGS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES...AND HAVE ALREADY HAD A HANDFUL OF
REPORTS WITH THUS FAR LOW END/NUISANCE FLOODING.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EASTWARD AND LOOKING REASONABLY LIKELY THAT ADDED ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO
SOUTH OF PONTIAC THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED AS IT
EXTENDS WNW TOWARD QUAD CITIES.
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS GROWING VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 18 ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 2000 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH 700-500MB FLOW OF 35-45KT NOTED ON AREA VWPS RESULTING
IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ENCOURAGE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY SHEAR COMBO CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL GOES-R 1 MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SLOWLY
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WC IL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 SO NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING POPS.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST IN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH EXCEPTION OF
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CWA TIED TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EXITING TO THE EAST. 850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXING POSSIBLY
TO 750 MB OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA/EASTERN 2/3 ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN UPWARD MOTION. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO THE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...BUT
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD AID
IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL DUE
TO COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LOSS OF LIFT FROM EXITING TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...SO THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD.
ON TUESDAY...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE MID 80S DUE TO 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +20 AND +22 CELSIUS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET A WEAK LAKE BREEZE SLIP IN TO
IMMEDIATE SHORE AREAS FROM COOK COUNTY TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...RESULTING IN STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
GET ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE AREA. 850 TEMPS IN HIGH TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS WILL YIELD AT LEAST MID-UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 AND AROUND 90 SOUTH...WITH WARMER TEMPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF
SLOWER FROPA VERIFIES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT GENERALLY. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DAYS TO BE
TOTAL WASHOUTS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO
INDICATE A POSSIBLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION
PASSING NEARBY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SO MAY HAVE TO
WATCH THAT PERIOD FOR STRONGER CONVECTION.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPING TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO REMAIN MURKY WITH
PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE SCATTERED HOWEVER PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
THAT SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAYED OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THOUGH HAS BEGAN TO WAVE BACK NORTH ON THE NOSE
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS
WITH UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST AND
THIS AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RENEWED AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT MAY BE NEAR BUT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDORS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. DID TRY TO TEMPER THE FORECAST SOME BY BACKING OFF FROM
PREVAILING TSRA TO TEMPO TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
351 PM CDT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM AIR MASS OVER LAND COULD YIELD
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STABLE OPEN LAKE. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN LAKE UP TO 25 KT
DESPITE STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND IT.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG A HENRY...TO GALESBURG...TO
FORT MADISON IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE/SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS AS THEY TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...THEN EXITING INTO INDIANA BY
AROUND 01Z. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. BY THAT
POINT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. DESPITE THIS...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.50 TO 1.75. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MONTHLY AND YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THINK WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
INSTEAD HIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HARD IN THE HWO...ZONE FORECAST...AND
ESF.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT
LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN AS
EVERYTHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE REGION FOR WE AND WED NIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IF THERE IS ANY PCPN THEN IT
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
GRIDS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE WORDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OF THUR AND
THUR NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. 1730Z RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAICS
SHOW A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY...SO THEY ARE OF LITTLE
USE TO THE FORECAST. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING FROM NEAR KORD TO KGBG AROUND 20Z. HAVE
TAILORED THE AVIATION FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...FEATURING TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z AT KPIA...THEN
BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z FURTHER SOUTH AT THE I-72 TERMINALS. ONCE THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS PASSES...MANY MODELS HINT THAT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED THAT WITH PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS THROUGH THE 08-09Z
TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT HAVE GONE DRY WITH A VFR CEILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS SURMISED YDA...IA BORN MCS OVERNIGHT CONTS TO FESTER EWD ACRS CNTRL
THROUGH NE IL W/RECENT LINE INTENSIFICATION ALG OUTFLW BNDRY NOTED THROUGH
CNTRL IL ALG NOSE OF RTNG LL THETA-E RIDGE. HWVR DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION HAMPERED CONSIDERABLY BOTH BY EWD SPILLING CIRRUS
SHIELD AND SLOWED BNDRY LYR MOISTENING. THUS SUSPECT A CONTD SLOW
EWD DECAY OF ADVG LINE COMING OUT OF NE IL.
LT AFTN/EVE FCST BECOMES EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL BASED ON
SUPPOSITION OF AIRMASS RECOVERY POST OUTFLW WHICH SEEMS TO BE
ONGOING ATTM OVR NW IL. CERTAINLY MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED
DVLPG ACRS MUCH OF MO HWVR STALLING SWWD FLANK OF OUTFLW LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO STEER ANY AFTN SVR RISK WELL SOUTH OF CWA...THROUGH
SRN IL/CNTRL IN. WILL RETAIN SOME MEASURE OF CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
GRIDDED FCST BASED ON 12Z HRRR WHICH DOES INDICATE SOME RENEWED
DVLPMNT PSBL OVR NW IN/SW MI AFT 21Z HWVR ADDNL CUTS MAY BE
NECESSARY BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS THAT LEAD
TO SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH WELL DEVELOPED
MCS. TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 40 KT LLJ SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATER TODAY AND ADVECTING A VERY THETA-E RICH ENVIRONMENT
INTO OUR AREA. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS JUST UPSTREAM AND STRENGTHENING
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORTING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME RAIN VIRTUALLY ASSURED FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA AS THIS FRONT INTERSECTS EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING.
EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS THE WILDCARD THAT COULD BE
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SEVERE RISK. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
HAVE ALTERED COURSE A BIT. INSTEAD OF SHUNTING THIS CONVECTION INTO
MICHIGAN EARLY AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY ACTIVITY AROUND CHICAGO
LATER IN THE DAY...THEY SUGGEST THIS MCV WILL SPAWN CONVECTION IN
OUR CWA A BIT EARLIER ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BE THE
MAIN "SHOW" FOR OUR AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MORE PRECARIOUS SEVERE
RISK GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING/COLD FRONT AND MAKES DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS
LIKELY...JUST LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
INSTABILITY TODAY AND NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT PREFRONTAL
CLOUDS/REDUCED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM YIELDING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND
ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LLJ SUGGESTS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
SEGMENTS/LINES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED LAPSE RATES/CAPE VALUES AND WARM/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE IF ANY 0-1 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A
LOW...BUT NON-ZERO...TORNADO THREAT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. PWATS ARE NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 17C. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH-SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND RELATIVELY HIGH FFG SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AND WILL FORGO
A WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
TO SUMMARIZE...STILL A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY WITH
SCOPE OF EVENT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM MCS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND
POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. TIMING OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
FLOODING THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS FAR NRN ALB/ TO
FURTHER ENTRENCH ANTECEDENT LONGWAVE AXIS ACRS GRTLKS MON THROUGH
TUE. OVERLAP OF LAGGED LOW LEVEL ISODROSOTHERMAL WITH LEADING EDGE
APPROACH OF M13-15C MIDTROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL...LENDS SUCCINCT ZONE
OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTN EXTNDG FM LONDON ONT/SLICING
THROUGH CWA NE TO SW CORNER INTO CNTL IL. RESULTANT MLCAPES IN
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND 25-35 KTS MAGNITUDE 0-6 KM SHEAR/FAVORABLE
30-40M/12 HR HFC/FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENT QUAD POSITIONING INTO
100-110 KT UL JETLET LIFTNG NEWD THROUGH SERN MI INTO FAR SERN ONT.
LESSER MENTION WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER EXPANSIVE/NOTABLY MORE
STABLE LAKE SHADOW ACRS FAR NWRN CWA INLAND NORTH OF TOLL ROAD...IN
VEERING TO WLY FLOW. FAIRLY HIGH POPS SRN/FAR SERN CWA AS CONVECTION
MATURES/ORGANIZES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY QUICK DEMISE
AS CONVECTION TO BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIURNAL CYCLE ALONG WITH SERLY
COLD POOL PUSH THROUGH CWA. WHILE ISOLD SVR RISK NOT ENTIRELY
ZERO...SUSPECT SUB/NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTS 40-50
MPH PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN PRIOR OVERTURNED ATMOS FM LT SUN
CONVECTION. CARVED OUT SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF NILL SENSIBLE WX
TUE NIGHT TIL WED AFTN AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LATER TIMING OF
NEXT NRN STREAM FEATURE /CURRENTLY NEAR 50N/155W/ INTO NRN UPR
GRTLKS. LACK OF GOMEX INFLUX AND HIGH BELTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
GARNERS DOUBT TOWARDS BLENDED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS AND HAVE
REDUCED/RELEGATED TO AFTN/ERLY WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER LATEST MODEL
RUNS EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD...THOUGH UNSETTLED PD LIKELY AS PIECEMEAL
UPSTREAM EJECTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS VORTEX MOVES ONSHORE CA COAST
WED AM...LIFTING OUT LAGGARDLY IN POS TILT FASHION ACRS MIDDLE CONUS
INTO THE WEEKEND. NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
POOLING OF MID/UPR 60S DPS FM CORN BELT INTO CNTL/NRN IN AND HIR
THAN CLIMO MEAN ENSEMBLE POP AVGS NECESSITATE BROADBRUSH MENTION
DYS5-7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MURKY NR TERM OWING TO RAPIDLY DECAYING OUTFLW BNDRY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA AND NEW ELEVATED DVLPMNT ALG WRN FLANK OF BUBBLE
HIGH CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR NRN IL. UPSTREAM AIRMASS ACRS NRN MO/SW IL
QUITE UNSTABLE AT THIS HOUR W/ROBUST LLJ IN PLACE AHD OF MCV
TRACKING ACRS NRN LK MI. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF LLJ XPC CONTD
REDVLPMNT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH NW IN/SW MI BFR FOCUSING SWWD FM
NE MO THROUGH CNTRL IL BY MID AFTN. THIS SHLD SPURN SOME EMBEDDED
STRATIFORM SHRA ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING YET SHIFT THE
THUNDER THREAT TO DOWNSTATE IL/IN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1017 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS SURMISED YDA...IA BORN MCS OVERNIGHT CONTS TO FESTER EWD ACRS CNTRL
THROUGH NE IL W/RECENT LINE INTENSIFICATION ALG OUTFLW BNDRY NOTED THROUGH
CNTRL IL ALG NOSE OF RTNG LL THETA-E RIDGE. HWVR DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION HAMPERED CONSIDERABLY BOTH BY EWD SPILLING CIRRUS
SHIELD AND SLOWED BNDRY LYR MOISTENING. THUS SUSPECT A CONTD SLOW
EWD DECAY OF ADVG LINE COMING OUT OF NE IL.
LT AFTN/EVE FCST BECOMES EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL BASED ON
SUPPOSITION OF AIRMASS RECOVERY POST OUTFLW WHICH SEEMS TO BE
ONGOING ATTM OVR NW IL. CERTAINLY MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED
DVLPG ACRS MUCH OF MO HWVR STALLING SWWD FLANK OF OUTFLW LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO STEER ANY AFTN SVR RISK WELL SOUTH OF CWA...THROUGH
SRN IL/CNTRL IN. WILL RETAIN SOME MEASURE OF CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
GRIDDED FCST BASED ON 12Z HRRR WHICH DOES INDICATE SOME RENEWED
DVLPMNT PSBL OVR NW IN/SW MI AFT 21Z HWVR ADDNL CUTS MAY BE
NECESSARY BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA
LATER TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS THAT LEAD TO SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH WELL DEVELOPED MCS.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT 40 KT LLJ SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
LATER TODAY AND ADVECTING A VERY THETA-E RICH ENVIRONMENT INTO OUR
AREA. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS JUST UPSTREAM AND STRENGTHENING RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORTING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME RAIN VIRTUALLY ASSURED FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA AS THIS FRONT INTERSECTS EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
THIS EVENING.
EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED MCS IS THE WILDCARD THAT COULD BE
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SEVERE RISK. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
HAVE ALTERED COURSE A BIT. INSTEAD OF SHUNTING THIS CONVECTION INTO
MICHIGAN EARLY AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY ACTIVITY AROUND CHICAGO
LATER IN THE DAY...THEY SUGGEST THIS MCV WILL SPAWN CONVECTION IN
OUR CWA A BIT EARLIER ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BE THE
MAIN "SHOW" FOR OUR AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MORE PRECARIOUS SEVERE
RISK GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING/COLD FRONT AND MAKES DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS
LIKELY...JUST LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
INSTABILITY TODAY AND NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT PREFRONTAL
CLOUDS/REDUCED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM YIELDING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND
ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LLJ SUGGESTS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
SEGMENTS/LINES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED LAPSE RATES/CAPE VALUES AND WARM/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE IF ANY 0-1 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A
LOW...BUT NON-ZERO...TORNADO THREAT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. PWATS ARE NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 17C. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT LATEST HI-RES
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH-SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND RELATIVELY HIGH FFG SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AND WILL FORGO
A WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
TO SUMMARIZE...STILL A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY WITH
SCOPE OF EVENT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM MCS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND
POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. TIMING OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
FLOODING THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS FAR NRN ALB/ TO
FURTHER ENTRENCH ANTECEDENT LONGWAVE AXIS ACRS GRTLKS MON THROUGH
TUE. OVERLAP OF LAGGED LOW LEVEL ISODROSOTHERMAL WITH LEADING EDGE
APPROACH OF M13-15C MIDTROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL...LENDS SUCCINCT ZONE
OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTN EXTNDG FM LONDON ONT/SLICING
THROUGH CWA NE TO SW CORNER INTO CNTL IL. RESULTANT MLCAPES IN
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND 25-35 KTS MAGNITUDE 0-6 KM SHEAR/FAVORABLE
30-40M/12 HR HFC/FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENT QUAD POSITIONING INTO
100-110 KT UL JETLET LIFTNG NEWD THROUGH SERN MI INTO FAR SERN ONT.
LESSER MENTION WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER EXPANSIVE/NOTABLY MORE
STABLE LAKE SHADOW ACRS FAR NWRN CWA INLAND NORTH OF TOLL ROAD...IN
VEERING TO WLY FLOW. FAIRLY HIGH POPS SRN/FAR SERN CWA AS CONVECTION
MATURES/ORGANIZES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY QUICK DEMISE
AS CONVECTION TO BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIURNAL CYCLE ALONG WITH SERLY
COLD POOL PUSH THROUGH CWA. WHILE ISOLD SVR RISK NOT ENTIRELY
ZERO...SUSPECT SUB/NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTS 40-50
MPH PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN PRIOR OVERTURNED ATMOS FM LT SUN
CONVECTION. CARVED OUT SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF NILL SENSIBLE WX
TUE NIGHT TIL WED AFTN AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LATER TIMING OF
NEXT NRN STREAM FEATURE /CURRENTLY NEAR 50N/155W/ INTO NRN UPR
GRTLKS. LACK OF GOMEX INFLUX AND HIGH BELTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
GARNERS DOUBT TOWARDS BLENDED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS AND HAVE
REDUCED/RELEGATED TO AFTN/ERLY WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER LATEST MODEL
RUNS EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD...THOUGH UNSETTLED PD LIKELY AS PIECEMEAL
UPSTREAM EJECTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS VORTEX MOVES ONSHORE CA COAST
WED AM...LIFTING OUT LAGGARDLY IN POS TILT FASHION ACRS MIDDLE CONUS
INTO THE WEEKEND. NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
POOLING OF MID/UPR 60S DPS FM CORN BELT INTO CNTL/NRN IN AND HIR
THAN CLIMO MEAN ENSEMBLE POP AVGS NECESSITATE BROADBRUSH MENTION
DYS5-7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MCS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHETHER THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA
OR A SECONDARY BATCH WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY GIVEN GOOD FORCING IN VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY
WHEN. CURRENT THINKING IS TO STICK WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
(AROUND 21Z FOR KSBN AND 23Z FOR KFWA) BUT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE FINE-TUNED LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CATEGORY
ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS OF 18Z CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATING A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO LATE
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND FOCUSED THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA
OF FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE MEAN 2-8KM WINDS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FURTHER NORTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING
2C TO 4 BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPIN EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY. THIS LOW THEN STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN INTO THE 80S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 86 64 87 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 62 85 63 87 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 61 84 62 86 / 50 10 20 20
LBL 63 85 64 86 / 50 10 20 20
HYS 63 85 64 88 / 40 10 10 10
P28 67 88 67 88 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AS OF 18Z CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATING A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO LATE
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND FOCUSED THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA
OF FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE MEAN 2-8KM WINDS PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FURTHER NORTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING
2C TO 4 BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE EVENT, WE WILL SEE
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN-GEM)
ALL SHOW THE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT EVENT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, AND AS SUCH, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND EVEN REMOVED THEM EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ADJACENT ROCKIES...INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN.
IN THE DAYS 4-7 TIME FRAME (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), POPULATED
BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED,
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH WHILE A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES COME DOWN.
AFTER FRIDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES REALLY CHALLENGING. WE COULD
ACTUALLY ENTER ANOTHER FAIRLY WET PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT RIGHT OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. THERE COULD
BE A FAIRLY DECENT, DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IF THIS PATTERN
PANS OUT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (JUNE 13-15 TIME FRAME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 86 64 87 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 62 85 63 87 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 61 84 62 86 / 50 10 20 20
LBL 63 85 64 86 / 50 10 20 20
HYS 63 85 64 88 / 40 10 10 10
P28 67 88 67 88 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN
KANSAS. EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A 500MB THERMAL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. AS OF 14Z CONVECTION WAS ALREADY
APPEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS THERMAL
TROUGH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN WYOMING. A 700MB
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL THINK THAT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT. MODELS DO SOMEWHAT
AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AN 85 KT
250-HPA JET WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE (30-40 KT).
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SUPERCELL TRANSIENT STRUCTURES,
BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS UPSCALE GROWTH. PWATS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
THERE ALSO COULD BE WET MICROBURSTS AS LINEAR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES ARE EVENTUALLY REALIZED. THE OTHER THREAT IS HAIL,
WHICH COULD BE UP TO GOLF BALLS OR PERHAPS EVEN 2" IF CELL
ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN DISCRETE LONG ENOUGH BEFORE EVOLVING INTO
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE TOWARDS
03Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
HEADING INTO THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE EVENT, WE WILL SEE
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN-GEM)
ALL SHOW THE LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT EVENT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, AND AS SUCH, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND EVEN REMOVED THEM EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ADJACENT ROCKIES...INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN.
IN THE DAYS 4-7 TIME FRAME (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), POPULATED
BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED,
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH WHILE A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES COME DOWN.
AFTER FRIDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES REALLY CHALLENGING. WE COULD
ACTUALLY ENTER ANOTHER FAIRLY WET PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING OUT RIGHT OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. THERE COULD
BE A FAIRLY DECENT, DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IF THIS PATTERN
PANS OUT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (JUNE 13-15 TIME FRAME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THAT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
400FT AGL LATE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED
ON THE NAM AND RAP WILL FOCUS CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z SUNDAY AND
03Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 64 84 64 / 20 50 10 10
GCK 91 62 83 63 / 30 40 10 10
EHA 90 61 82 62 / 50 50 10 20
LBL 92 63 84 64 / 30 50 10 20
HYS 90 63 84 64 / 20 40 10 10
P28 95 67 87 67 / 10 60 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTED A WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAIN
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUD WISE THIS AFTERNOON IS
FEATURING HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. RIGHT NOW PAYING ATTENTION TO WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
AND ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS LIFTING MECHANISM. WSR-88D SHOWS SOME VERY
SMALL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MUCH OF THE AREA IS ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
AFTER DENSE FOG INUNDATED PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BASED OF VIS SAT
AND AREA WEBCAMS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED WITH MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED DEEPER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG. WARM AND SOME WHAT MUGGY
DAY STILL ON TAP WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
COULD ALSO HELP TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER...HOWEVER BASED ON MESO MODELS THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLIGHT SIDE. INCREASE IN CIRRUS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP ZFP AND HWO TO REMOVE MORNING
FOG WORDING. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DENSE FOG IS PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE RIDGETOP
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. THIS FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEY FLOORS AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT.
AN SPS IS OUT TO HANDLE THIS AND IT WAS ALSO COVERED IN THE HWO.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES ATTM. 6Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ATTM WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. CORRESPONDING
SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES
WORKING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE
BEGINNING TO DAMPEN THIS RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND AMPLIFY. AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE CURRENT DAY...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND
9 AM EDT. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR
THE TN BORDER WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BREAK A WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WHICH SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SOME DEGREE AND GENERALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVEN AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM...OPTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE TN BORDER REGION AND FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER. IF RAP AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SLIGHT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS CALENDAR YEAR. THE WARM SPOTS SHOULD THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY IF CU DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS EXTENSIVE
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW COULD
THREATEN THE NW PART OF THE CWA LATE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IN ADDITION...STRAY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS EXPERIENCING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RAIN...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...INITIALLY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...0Z ECMWF AND 0Z NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE 0Z GFS INDICATE MUCH OR POSSIBLY ALL OF EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY REGION COULD BE SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 3Z SREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF LI LESS THAN -4 REACHING
80 PERCENT OR MORE BY MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SBCAPE SHOULD AT LEAST NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE WEAK FORECAST CAP BY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND OR A LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN
INSTABILITY...BUT FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AND WBZ OF 10 TO 11KFT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ON SUNDAY SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTH. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP
FOR THE MIDWEEK PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY IS LOOKING TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO SPEAK OF...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S EACH AFTERNOON. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON
MONDAY...WOULD NO BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREE READINGS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOES WAY UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARDS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...SO WILL PLAN TO JUST GO WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT ON POPS AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER/STORM SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD HIGH COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WARMER SPELL OF WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR SOME TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
AREAS SEEING VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. HIGH PRESSURE
IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TODAY HELPING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LATER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A ISSUE AT TAF SITES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW DID ADD VCTS TO SYM AT 13Z AND
JKL/SJS AT 15Z...BUT KEEP ALL SITES AT VFR GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SOUTH
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO TRIED TO LEAN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. THINKING MOST SITES WILL SEE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON
EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON
EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE GENERATING A ROUGHLY 995MB LOW THAT
SHOULD MOVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE FINAL TRACK WILL
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION. A STOUT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BRING 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20C PER THE NAM AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING COOLER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF TO REACH OR EXCEED 80F TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN THAT
CAPE LEVELS EXCEEDING 1000J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CAP TO
OVERCOME...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO JUST
THAT. MODELS DO PICK UP ON THIS WITH THE NAM...GEM...GFS AND ECMWF
ALL SHOWING MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF QPF OUT AHEAD OF A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AHEAD AND ALONG THE SHORTWAVE WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 40-50KTS
AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A
TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/CHANCES OF STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG IF THEY DO FORM AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS GREATER.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES LATER TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT AS MODELS
INDICATE A QUICK HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ALONG THE CAPE
GRADIENT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA. THREAT WILL
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT AND A VERY LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL THREAT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ARE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT IS GOOD. WITH THE STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED QUICK
HITTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEICHE
ACTIVITY.
WED LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH SKIES OVERALL CLEARING.
THU ALSO LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH ENHANCED QPF POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE
BLANCA IS TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE FRONT AND THE SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS QUITE LOW AND OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SUN...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MON. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.AVIATION...
THE INITIAL BAND OF DECAYING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL APART OVER SEMICH DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING 22-03Z TIME WINDOW. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LOWER
CIGS FROM VFR MIDCLOUD INTO BROKEN MVFR 030-040 BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE 22-03Z TIME WINDOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWER AND PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 6Z
TONIGHT. BOTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING DUE
TO BR/HZ.
FOR DTW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME
NUMEROUS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY THEN
PERSIST INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE FOR A LOW MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 AFTER 22Z...HIGH
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRAS BETWEEN 23Z-3Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1222 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A NOWCAST
FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR
AND AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
RESIDES WITHIN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH OF M 59 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER.
OBSERVATIONAL PRODUCTS THIS MORNING SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MCV IN
PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE IS WELL
SUPPORTED ALOFT AND RESIDES WITHIN THE HEART OF MAIN 1000-500MB
HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE. FOR TODAY...MAIN SUPPORT FOR THIS MCV ALOFT
WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT 18Z...OVER GEORGIAN BAY AT 00Z THIS EVENING. NWP DATA SUPPORTS A
ROBUST MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER. MODELS FORECAST THAT 0-6
KM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/0-1 KM WINDSPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS/0-0.5
KM WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE VALIDITY OF THE EXACT
MAGNITUDES WITH LACK OF SAMPLING IN THE RAOB NETWORK...BUT PRETTY
SAFE TO SAY THAT HIGH END WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH EJECTION OF IA/MO LLJ MAX
TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST THING TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WELL THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...GIVEN THE SHIELD OF OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD PUSHING OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL FORCING. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 07.12Z
KDTX RAOB SUPPORTS VIRTUALLY NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
RELATIVE BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES OF THE INBOUND
PARCELS ARE OFF OF THE STABLE/DRY ANTICYCLONE. NAM IS ADVERTISING
RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN BUFR SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
PRESERVATION OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN HAPPEN GIVEN
MIDLEVEL AIRMASS REPLACEMENT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT EVEN IF MARGINAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AND STORMS CAN POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA....THAN SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MODE MAY FAVOR A SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELL
MODE EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLES. A PLAN VIEW CUT OF A PSEUDO MIXED
LAYER CAPE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT 750 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONFLUENCE STREAMLINES/MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF MCV AND DRIVING
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FLARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IS
19-23Z.
WHAT IS OF BETTER CERTAINTY IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MIDLEVEL JET IMPULSE ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALL RESPONSE WILL BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL IN ALLOWING A BETTER THETA E RIDGE TO ROLL/FOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF M 59 COINCIDENT WITH THE END OF
PEAK HEATING. NAM AND RAP BOTH ADVERTISE THAT RICHER LOW LEVEL THETA
E CONTENT WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT. VARIOUS
HIGH RESOLUTION/DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE LEAD
EDGE OF THIS THETA E GRADIENT/SECONDARY WARM FRONT REGION AS A
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WITH FORECASTING THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS
POOR HANDLING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA. OVERALL....TIMING OUTLINED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 22-
02Z LOOKS VERY GOOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM MULTICELL STRUCTURES FOR THIS SOUTHERN/LATER
ACTIVITY TO THAT OF LINE SEGEMENTS AND POSSIBLE BOW STRUCTURES.
PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS ON TRACK AS WELL AS SECONDARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND A 2
PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY MID LEVELS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING DEPTHS REACHING 850 MB YESTERDAY...BUT THE 850 MB TEMP
CAME IN AT BIT COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AT 9 C. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ENERGY TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PW VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN 1.75 INCHES TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. DEVELOPING DEEP AND
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS EVEN
DOWN LOW AT 850 MB...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE ADVERTISED EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME A LOT OF WARM
AIR...AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE ABOVE 14000 KFT...AND 700 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE
MAX FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPES MOSTLY BELOW
1000 J/KG. MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY ADVERTISED SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND MORE LIKELY LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
ATTEMPTS TO FOLD OVER AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. GOOD
0-1 KM LOW LEVEL WIND BULK SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH WARM
FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAIN THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CAPE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO DRYING OUT PROCESS OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED THE
INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
SOME CONCERN THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD STRUGGLE WITH THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INTERACT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BROAD SCALE SUPPORT FOR
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE TROUGH AND THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SETTING UP ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. THE MAIN
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST DURING MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MID LEVELS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE. MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR
10C WILL COMBINE WITH 500 MB COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP 850 MB LI NEAR
ZERO. A NUDGE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET WILL
BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO TOUCH OFF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN GET ADDED TO THE MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. MODEL CAPE PROJECTIONS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AVAILABLE AND AS
500 MB TEMPS SETTLE AROUND -15C...ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR 8-9 JUNE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IN THE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A BROAD/WEAK REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SPOKES
OF ENHANCED TROUGHINESS HAVING LOW PREDICTABILITY. THAT LEAVES THE
THUMB REGION AS THE ONLY TARGET AREA FOR A POP FORECAST MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN CHANCE DUE TO ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING IN FROM
NORTHERN LOWER AND DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION...A LITTLE LESS SO IN THE DETROIT AREA NEAR THE
LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZE.
TUESDAY WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THANKS
TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE EXIT TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND ON THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 80/LOWS AROUND 60.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE IN THE GREAT LAKES DURING
WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER DYNAMICALLY IN THE MODELS THAN THE
ONE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE QUALITY. MEAN RH
FIELDS IN THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THEN APPEAR UNDERDONE WITH AN
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SEEMS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT AS 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 9C AND 500
MB TEMPS NEAR -7C ARE SHOWN SLIDING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.
AFTER ANOTHER BREAK POST FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE
MORE THAN HINTS AT A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE REMNANTS OF "BLANCA" CURRENTLY
OFF BAJA AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING MID
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A MODERATE
INCREASE IN WIND AND WAVES MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
HURON. MORE IMPORTANT FOR MARINERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
ARE LIKELY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS SET TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAS SPREAD THRU ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND HAS REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITHIN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE
ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
OUR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL NOT CLEAR OUR
CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REPRESENTED IN THE GOING
FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM WEST OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. WILL NEED TO RELY ON SOME CLEARING TO PRODUCE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CLEARING/INSTABILITY EVOLVES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
...SHOWERS MOVING IN...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE WORKING ACROSS THE NC PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SWATH OF MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ STRETCHED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BACK
THROUGH IOWA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT. FORCING IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND OF COURSE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND SFC LOW. GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA/MO...WITH LITTLE TO NONE FROM NRN WI AND
AREAS NORTH OF THERE. THUNDER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNEAPOLIS...BUT WAS MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THERE. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
WE HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT 00Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWS HOW DRY WE CURRENTLY ARE...WITH PWATS AT 0.32". THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING...BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE UPSTREAM IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT ROLLS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY...PUSHING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WAA/DPVA AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION (TO 1.75" PWATS)
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. BEST FORCING IS TIED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM MCV FROM CONVECTION IN SRN MN/IA...WHICH ROLLS RIGHT ACROSS
NRN LOWER. CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND MODEL SFC TD`S TOO
HIGH...LIKELY DENYING THEIR INSISTENCE ON CREATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALL THE HINTS FOR THIS RESIDE WELL SOUTH FROM SRN LOWER
BACK THROUGH NRN IN/IL...WITHIN STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET AND
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.
FOR US...WE HAVE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FIRST...WHICH WILL HOLD
OFF THE START TIME FOR SHOWERS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE
THAT A LATE MORNING START ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN NRN LOWER
IS GOOD...PUSHING THROUGH NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...A RESULT OF POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN EASTERN WI (BEHIND THE INITIAL CURRENT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION). THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY BE SUSTAINED ALONG
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES US TONIGHT. THE KEY IS HOW FAST THE FRONT
GETS HERE...A NEBULOUS PART OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TREND WILL BE
FOR DRYING HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TOUGH...WARMING UP PRIOR TO THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS
NE LOWER...AND WARMING UP BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINS WILL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED WHILE RAINING...BUT CAN
SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF NRN
LOWER...AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER.
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S...LOWER 60S FAR SE IN
DOWNSLOPING AND LAST TO COOL LOCALES BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD MAYBE BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THAT (AS USUAL) IS DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER SHOT AT STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING AS WE WELCOME THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AS OVERALL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN FINDS ITSELF BENEATH THE
FAMILIAR REGIME OF PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. IN THIS CASE...IT
STILL APPEARS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PAY THE AREA A VISIT...WITH
THE FIRST AND MOST PRONOUNCED ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON (TIED TO A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY)...WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER FEATURE TRAVERSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATER
SUNDAY IS A NOTABLE ONE...WITH PWAT VALUES TAKING A DIVE FROM VERY
HIGH LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES TOWARD SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
"NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - GENERALLY IN THE 0.9 INCH RANGE.
THAT IS NOTED DOWN LOW BY A DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BACK
THROUGH THE 50S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLAVOR FOR MONDAY...AS WE
AWAIT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING AFTER 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF
THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE STILL LOOKS TO SPILL
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP STEEPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL WHILE WEAK
GRADIENT/LIGHTER WIND REGIME LIKELY ALLOWS FOR SOME TURNING OF THE
WINDS ONSHORE LOCALLY. BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW MEETING UP LAKE
HURON ONSHORE COMPONENT LOOKS TO DO ITS USUAL THING OF FORCING
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF BETTER POOLING OF MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 800J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS NOTED INTO INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AS WELL (AS WE
OFTEN SEE IN BACKGROUND WEAK WEST FLOW REGIMES)...WITH INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT LESS BUT PUSHING 500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT
WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK PUSH OF BETTER UPPER FORCING (MAINLY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING)...AND THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DIURNAL
UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS TO
OUR WEST OVER WISCONSIN BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY TRY ITS BEST TO SNEAK OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF IT WILL FALL APART
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH CERTAINLY HAVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING WILL HELP A LITTLE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LIMITED
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH GIVEN LOW FREEZING/WET BULB 0
LEVELS DOWN NEAR 9KFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES PERHAPS NEARING 30
KNOTS FOR A TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORMS PUT OUT
SOME SMALLER HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...
THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND BETTER
LAPSE RATES SWINGING THROUGH...FEEL THE NEED TO EXTEND SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. CLEARING AND REMAINING HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE (HELPED ALONG WHEREVER IT HAPPENS TO RAIN) STRONGLY
ARGUES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION...WITH
SOME OF THAT POTENTIALLY RATHER DENSE WITH A POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES
COMPONENT. AFTER THAT...GETTING A GOOD VIBE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ROLLS OVERHEAD.
THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED
RIBBON OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES UP INTO THE REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIED TO QUITE THE PROGRESSIVE/STRONG
SHORTWAVE RUNNING THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONG GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE UP THIS
WAY...BUT BASED ON THE SETUP HONESTLY THINK THIS MAY BE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO FOLD OVER FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD DOWN INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RACING
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WE CAN
SNEAK THIS FAR NORTH...BUT STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT DO AT
LEAST GIVE ONE PAUSE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
TO SURVIVE THE JOURNEY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SURPRISE...SURPRISE. AS EXPECTED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGLY TRENDED AGAINST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...OWING TO BETTER AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THUS FORCING OUR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTHEAST AREAS FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TREND IS FOR A RATHER NICE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...COMPLETE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS
GIVEN AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR (AKA WARM DAYS...COOLISH NIGHTS). RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...THOUGH STILL LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. CERTAINLY A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID/MILD
CONDITIONS...WITH RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THRU OUR STATE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD CONTINUE TO SWING THRU
THE NRN GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE LOW CENTER FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
WATER SFC...BUT CAN SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...BUT WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE NW LOWER SHORELINE...AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT...AND WINDS START TO SUBSIDE AS
THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A
WEAKISH GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC
NW INTO WRN CANADA RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN INTO SW IA WITH SRLY FLOW FROM WI INTO
UPPER MI. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG 300K-305K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA SHRA/TSRA FROM
CENTRAL WI INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER IA...MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORTED SOME EMBEDDED TSRA FROM CNTRL INT NRN WI.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN WILL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS SINCE 06Z RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.75
INCH...GREATEST OVER THE EAST HALF. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 400
J/KG WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT TSRA...SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN LAKES...SOME ISOLD
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY PCPN
WILL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MAIN QUIET PERIOD WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY AFTN AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SETS UP SOMEWHERE
FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES PUTS UPR MICHIGAN
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN. SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MLCAPES BTWN 750-
1000J/KG TO TRIGGER TSRA MID-LATE AFTN. LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. WEAKNESS IN THE SFC GRADIENT LEADS TO LAKE BREEZES
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FOCUS. WINDS H85-H7 FM NW SO
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR MAYBE GETS TO 30 KTS. AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT
ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS ON THE LAKE BREEZES...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW ATTM. WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT AGL...SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER. ANY ORGANIZED CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIMES WITH LOWER
WBZERO. DCAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BLO 500 J/KG...SO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SEEMS MARGINAL. LCL/S ARE PRETTY LOW...SO IF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TOPS OUT MORE 35-40 KTS AND CAPES ARE MORE 1000 J/KG THAN
500 J/KG...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG LAKE BREEZE IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
MEAN STORM MOTION WNW INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
FORMS UPSTREAM WILL SURVIVE TRIP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ISLE ROYALE FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A QUIET LULL IN THE WEATHER LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN MORE
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NW
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUESDAY. SUB 1000MB
LOW...MAYBE AS LOW AS 995MB...TRACKS ACROSS NW ONTARIO DURING THIS
TIME WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES H85 TEMPS UP
TOWARD +16C OVER THE WESTERN U.P...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY AFTN WELL INTO THE 80S WEST AND MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN. DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH AT LEAST UPR 50S
EXPECTED...IF NOT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
INITIALLY...THINK TSRA ON TUE AFTN WILL BE ISOLD OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING LAYER H7-H6. EVEN
SO...LAKE BREEZES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP UP SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS THERE ARE IN THE MID-UPR
70S...COMPARED TO LOWER 80S TOWARD WI BORDER AND ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUE AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF OF CWA
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL MEET UP WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY BY
LATE DAY. ATTN BY LATE AFTN OR MORE EARLY EVENING WILL BE TO W AND
NW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE NEARS. EXPECT PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
NW ONTARIO...JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY ON TUESDAY EVENING. WAVE
WILL PROVIDE STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO MONDAY...BOTH FM DIRECTIONAL
STANDPOINT AS H85 WINDS ARE FM SW WHILE H7-H25 WINDS ARE MORE NW.
STRENTH OF SHEAR NOTABLE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KTS WITH H85
WINDS 30-40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS 50+ KTS AND H25 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80
KTS. DEGREE OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG BY 00Z
AND MUCAPES UP TO 3KM WELL OVER 1000J/KG SUGGEST STRONG TSRA COULD
OCCUR...EITHER ISOLD TO START OR POSSIBLY FM A COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT
WOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR BASED ON H85-H3
THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. DAY3 SPC DOES
MENTION AT LEAST WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. TRENDED HIGHER FOR POPS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO AND EHWO
GRAPHICS. IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST
VERIFY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...ATTN
LATE IN THE WEEK IS ON DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS SURGE TOWARD 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH
END OF CLIMO AT KGRB PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA CURRENTLY
CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HARD TO KNOW HOW EXACTLY THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT AS THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT ARE YET TO
BE SEEN. OVERALL THOUGH APPEARS THAT WHERE THAT MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER FOCUS WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN OR MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH IS NOT CLEAR JUST YET. AFTER THE WARMER TEMPS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL REST
OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THERE IF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE OF THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKE IT WOULD
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS NOT SURE HOW MUCH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EXCEPT AT CMX WHERE
THINK WIND AND FOG OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THEM TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING BACK IN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS THAT SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. LAKE BREEZE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS LATE MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1222 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A NOWCAST
FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR
AND AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
RESIDES WITHIN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH OF M 59 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER.
OBSERVATIONAL PRODUCTS THIS MORNING SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MCV IN
PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE IS WELL
SUPPORTED ALOFT AND RESIDES WITHIN THE HEART OF MAIN 1000-500MB
HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE. FOR TODAY...MAIN SUPPORT FOR THIS MCV ALOFT
WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT 18Z...OVER GEORGIAN BAY AT 00Z THIS EVENING. NWP DATA SUPPORTS A
ROBUST MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER. MODELS FORECAST THAT 0-6
KM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/0-1 KM WINDSPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS/0-0.5
KM WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SAGINAW BAY
BETWEEN 18-21Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE VALIDITY OF THE EXACT
MAGNITUDES WITH LACK OF SAMPLING IN THE RAOB NETWORK...BUT PRETTY
SAFE TO SAY THAT HIGH END WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH EJECTION OF IA/MO LLJ MAX
TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST THING TO MONITOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WELL THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...GIVEN THE SHIELD OF OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD PUSHING OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL FORCING. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 07.12Z
KDTX RAOB SUPPORTS VIRTUALLY NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
RELATIVE BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES OF THE INBOUND
PARCELS ARE OFF OF THE STABLE/DRY ANTICYCLONE. NAM IS ADVERTISING
RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN BUFR SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
PRESERVATION OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN HAPPEN GIVEN
MIDLEVEL AIRMASS REPLACEMENT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT EVEN IF MARGINAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AND STORMS CAN POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA....THAN SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MODE MAY FAVOR A SUPERCELLULAR/MULTICELL
MODE EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLES. A PLAN VIEW CUT OF A PSEUDO MIXED
LAYER CAPE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT 750 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONFLUENCE STREAMLINES/MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF MCV AND DRIVING
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FLARE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IS
19-23Z.
WHAT IS OF BETTER CERTAINTY IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MIDLEVEL JET IMPULSE ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALL RESPONSE WILL BE
MORE SUCCESSFUL IN ALLOWING A BETTER THETA E RIDGE TO ROLL/FOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF M 59 COINCIDENT WITH THE END OF
PEAK HEATING. NAM AND RAP BOTH ADVERTISE THAT RICHER LOW LEVEL THETA
E CONTENT WILL LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT. VARIOUS
HIGH RESOLUTION/DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE LEAD
EDGE OF THIS THETA E GRADIENT/SECONDARY WARM FRONT REGION AS A
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WITH FORECASTING THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS
POOR HANDLING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA. OVERALL....TIMING OUTLINED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 22-
02Z LOOKS VERY GOOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM MULTICELL STRUCTURES FOR THIS SOUTHERN/LATER
ACTIVITY TO THAT OF LINE SEGEMENTS AND POSSIBLE BOW STRUCTURES.
PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS ON TRACK AS WELL AS SECONDARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND A 2
PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 718 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING...AS COLD FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. LIMITED DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN ENDS UP FALLING LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE CARRIED LOW MVFR AND LIGHT FOG IN TAFS.
FOR DTW...A CLEAR START TO THE DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT IS
FOR A LOW MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 AFTER 22Z INTO
MONDAY MORNING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRAS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY MID LEVELS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING DEPTHS REACHING 850 MB YESTERDAY...BUT THE 850 MB TEMP
CAME IN AT BIT COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AT 9 C. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ENERGY TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PW VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN 1.75 INCHES TO
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. DEVELOPING DEEP AND
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS EVEN
DOWN LOW AT 850 MB...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE ADVERTISED EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME A LOT OF WARM
AIR...AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE ABOVE 14000 KFT...AND 700 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE
MAX FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPES MOSTLY BELOW
1000 J/KG. MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY ADVERTISED SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND MORE LIKELY LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
ATTEMPTS TO FOLD OVER AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. GOOD
0-1 KM LOW LEVEL WIND BULK SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH WARM
FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAIN THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CAPE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO DRYING OUT PROCESS OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED THE
INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
SOME CONCERN THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD STRUGGLE WITH THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INTERACT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BROAD SCALE SUPPORT FOR
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE TROUGH AND THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SETTING UP ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS JET IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. THE MAIN
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST DURING MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MID LEVELS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE. MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR
10C WILL COMBINE WITH 500 MB COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP 850 MB LI NEAR
ZERO. A NUDGE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET WILL
BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO TOUCH OFF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN GET ADDED TO THE MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. MODEL CAPE PROJECTIONS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AVAILABLE AND AS
500 MB TEMPS SETTLE AROUND -15C...ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL FOR 8-9 JUNE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IN THE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A BROAD/WEAK REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SPOKES
OF ENHANCED TROUGHINESS HAVING LOW PREDICTABILITY. THAT LEAVES THE
THUMB REGION AS THE ONLY TARGET AREA FOR A POP FORECAST MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN CHANCE DUE TO ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING IN FROM
NORTHERN LOWER AND DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION...A LITTLE LESS SO IN THE DETROIT AREA NEAR THE
LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZE.
TUESDAY WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THANKS
TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE EXIT TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND ON THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OFFERS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 80/LOWS AROUND 60.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE IN THE GREAT LAKES DURING
WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER DYNAMICALLY IN THE MODELS THAN THE
ONE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE QUALITY. MEAN RH
FIELDS IN THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THEN APPEAR UNDERDONE WITH AN
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SEEMS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT AS 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 9C AND 500
MB TEMPS NEAR -7C ARE SHOWN SLIDING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.
AFTER ANOTHER BREAK POST FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE
MORE THAN HINTS AT A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE REMNANTS OF "BLANCA" CURRENTLY
OFF BAJA AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING MID
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A MODERATE
INCREASE IN WIND AND WAVES MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
HURON. MORE IMPORTANT FOR MARINERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
ARE LIKELY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS SET TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly
move southeastward today. A surface low pressure will move
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region as well.
There will be a bit of a pressure gradient over the region today
which will develop breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. A
few wind gusts could be around 25 mph.
A southwest wind for this area is a very warm wind and will help
boost temperatures up to around 90 for most locations...maybe some
lower 90s! It will certainly be the warmest day so far this
season. The humidity will make the heat index feel like
temperature in the middle to upper 90s. Most of the area will
remain dry during the day but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm popping up across far south central Missouri or the eastern
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The 4km WRF and the HRRR indicate
this potential with the latest model runs.
Strong to severe convection will develop late today just to our
north across Kansas and northern Missouri. This convection will
slowly sag southward late this evening and overnight. The first
area to be impacted will be Central Missouri late this evening and
then southern Missouri by daybreak Monday. There will be enough
instability and shear to have some organized storms tonight which
some could be severe along and north of the I-44 corridor.
MUCape values will be between 1500 to 2000 J/kg tonight and 0-6km
Bulk shear will be about 35 knots. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of
the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds
at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. This
potential is low but not zero for areas north of I-44. SPC has the
area along and north of I-44 in a slight risk.
The storm mode will be clusters and bow like segments with the
storms late this evening and overnight. Any storm surges to the
east northeast will have the best potential for damaging wind
gusts. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight
and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening. Average
rainfall amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch with
isolated amounts close to an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
The front continues to slowly move southward during the day on
Monday. The best chance for additional showers and storms will be
along and south of I-44 on Monday. There is a marginal risk for a
strong storm or two over southern Missouri on Monday. The rain
will end across southern Missouri by Monday evening.
The models have trended somewhat drier with the latest guidance on
Tuesday and Wednesday and have followed suit with the rain
chances. A weak front will try to make a run for the area late
Wednesday night into early Thursday and have included some 20
percent rain chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s for
the middle of the week. Another stronger storm system will affect
the central Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a more
stormy weather pattern potentially for the Missouri Ozarks late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
An approaching cold front will begin to impact the regions terminals
during the late evening and overnight tonight. Prior to and after
the frontal passage, the regions weather will be rather night with
VFR ceilings and visibilities. The cold front will bring the
chance for thunderstorms with quickly changing conditions near
storms. Will handle these changes as needed. A strong low level
flow into the region will bring the potential for LLWS for a
portion of the hours from roughly midnight through sunrise.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
103 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TSTM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING
DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA
WERE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA HAD WORKED ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AND SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING 00Z RUNS
OF THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL BUT HAVE NOT DONE
A GREAT JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT SO FAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING THIS MORNING. THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEEMED TO BE MAINLY
FROM AROUND NOON TO 5 PM...BUT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
TONIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
GIVE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN TO DRY OUT AT LEAST A BIT.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 83 TO 87. BUMPED HIGHS UP A LITTLE FOR
TUESDAY...INTO THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY...
THEN THAT BUILD TOWARD MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND
EVEN THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. POPS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE KOFK SITE
WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SATELLITE TREND IS FOR CONTINUED WARMING
CLOUD TOPS SO ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. STILL INCLUDED VCSH IN FIRST PERIOD OF KOFK TAF. ONE MINUTE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO HELPFUL IN DEPICTING LOW CLOUD DECK THAT
WAS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING...MORPH INTO BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUE FIELD. KTQE LOWERED TO
MVFR CIG BUT FEEL KOMA WILL STAY SCT FOR NOW. MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE KOMA SITE. OTHERWISE ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE...OR
REMAIN...VFR AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
A NEW FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH USES MORE OF THE RAP AND HRRR
MODELS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A NOTE FROM NESDIS
SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWAT AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THE MCS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP EAST THIS MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WEAKER MCS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST AN ALL-OUT METEOROLOGICAL CONFLAGRATION
OF TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEB. SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT TODAY STEERING A DISTURBANCES
OFF THE ROCKIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT WHICH MIGHT BE GENEROUS IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE ACTUALLY THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST BUT WE
SHIFT THE MODEL BLEND SOUTH ABOUT 70 MILES TOWARD THE SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND LIMIT POPS TO 40 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE ADVECTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE
THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED. AS IT STANDS NOW THESE MODELS ARE FAR FROM
REALITY AND APPEAR TO BE BLINDLY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW DOMINANT SFC
BASED CONVECTION AT WILL.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME CLOUDINESS FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN
HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST MID RANGE
MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TRANSITORY UPPER PATTERN
WHICH LEADS TO A DRY REGIME AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINING ENERGY LEFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY GETS REORIENTED AND SHOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU TUESDAY. IN THE QUICKER NRN
STREAM ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PV ANOMALY
HANDLED SIMILARLY IN THIS REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A CLASSIC WRLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SFC PAIRED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRECEEDING THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 90S ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEB WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT THRU TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND KEEPING IT DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSITIVE CAPE
AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
FRONT DOES STALL AS IT MEETS RESISTENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE NRN STREAM PV ANOMALY OUT RUNS THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF UPPER FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION BY WED AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. HEMISPHERICALLY
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TRANSITIONS TAKING PLACE AS THE POLAR LOW
BIFURCATES AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AK AND WRN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA DOES GET PULLED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 320K PAIRED WITH
LAYER RH SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WILL GET DRAWN UP
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING A SHEARING
WRN STATES TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT PLAYER WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED FRONT WILL BE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THEN ALLOWING
A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER CAPE...BUT ALSO K INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
40 WHICH IS A KEY NUMBER WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. AS EXPECTED PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER LEADING TO
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH WHATEVER
THUDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU WED
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM.
MODEL DIFFS INCREASE TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES THE CHANGES. THE NEWD MOVING UPPER LOW DOES
DRAG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWD AS IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SATURDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN CIGS REMAINING
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BACK
TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT THE
KLBF TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO THE STATE FROM DISINTEGRATING HURRICANE
BLANCA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST MONDAY...BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD
AGAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR RATHER ACTIVE...BUT NO DAY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE TOTALLY DRY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE RADAR RANCH. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FAR
WEST AND DEWPOINTS OUT THERE STARTING TO CRATER. THE EAST IS IN LINE
TO SEE MORE STORM ACTION THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTER
TERM MODELS...WITH THE RUC HOLDING ONTO MORE PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDER
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND SUGGESTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD AGAIN
BY TUESDAY...IN THE MEANTIME THERE MAY BE SOME DRY-ISH STORMS OUT TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER. THE MAIN PORTION OF WHAT/S LEFT OF BLANCA MAY GO UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF. MAIN STORY IS INCREASED POPS
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THAT
ANOTHER TROF KEEPS MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION...SO NO DAY IS DRY FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH...WETTING RAIN HAS BEEN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT IT HAS BEEN SPOTTIER ACROSS THE WEST. MOST STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET...THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NE PLAINS...AND MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. AS THE
FRONT OOZES SOUTH AND WEST...IT SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OR
SO OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
STATE. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...AND
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONT BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. ISO-SCT STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OR POINTS
JUST WEST...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING MUCH SLOWER
THAN TODAY...SO SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LATER
MONDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...STEERING THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WESTWARD INTO AZ/CA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WEST BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE
STORMS.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
BLANCA WILL GO LATE TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
CALI COAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM AZ/CA INTO UTAH...WITH NM ON THE EDGE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO NM. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE TUE INTO WED.
LATEST MODELS SHOW THURS TO BE MUCH DRIER AS A DRY SLOT ENVELOPES
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH/LOW SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE NM/CO BORDER LATE THURS AND FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PLAINS. THUS...MORE STORMS
POSSIBLE.
FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS NOON HOUR...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO INSERT MENTION AT KABQ/KAEG. A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...THOUGH THEREAFTER...A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND IT BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z MONDAY ACROSS NE AND EC NM.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 86 52 87 / 10 10 10 20
DULCE........................... 40 80 47 83 / 10 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 46 80 49 79 / 10 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 44 84 47 81 / 5 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 44 83 46 79 / 10 20 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 44 85 49 81 / 10 20 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 47 86 52 79 / 10 20 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 50 88 53 84 / 10 30 40 30
CHAMA........................... 41 75 43 76 / 10 20 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 80 55 79 / 40 40 40 40
PECOS........................... 53 77 53 78 / 30 50 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 75 46 77 / 20 50 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 42 67 42 68 / 30 50 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 71 44 72 / 30 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 45 78 46 78 / 20 30 20 30
MORA............................ 48 76 49 76 / 30 50 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 49 86 51 83 / 10 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 53 82 53 79 / 20 40 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 85 55 82 / 20 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 85 61 83 / 20 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 87 64 85 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 88 58 86 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 88 58 86 / 10 20 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 89 60 87 / 10 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 88 63 85 / 10 20 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 62 90 62 88 / 30 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 81 57 81 / 30 30 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 55 84 60 83 / 30 30 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 84 51 84 / 30 30 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 79 55 81 / 30 30 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 82 57 82 / 30 30 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 59 84 / 30 30 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 78 56 79 / 30 40 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 53 74 53 77 / 60 50 40 40
RATON........................... 51 80 51 81 / 40 40 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 50 77 50 82 / 40 30 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 76 50 77 / 30 30 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 59 82 59 86 / 50 40 40 30
ROY............................. 54 80 56 84 / 50 40 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 62 84 62 86 / 50 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 86 63 87 / 50 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 89 64 91 / 50 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 62 86 61 89 / 50 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 63 88 63 90 / 50 20 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 90 64 90 / 50 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 64 92 65 92 / 40 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 59 84 60 86 / 30 20 20 20
ELK............................. 59 80 58 81 / 30 50 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS IL
HAS BEGUN TO TURN SE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS CONTOURS WHICH WILL TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
QUESTION IS HOW SOON MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. NEW GUIDANCE
COMING IN IS SHOWING THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE EVENING BEFORE MOST OF
THE AREA HAS A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
PREVIOUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. DECIDED TO TAKE THIS OUT AS BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST SPIC DISCUSSION TALKS ABOUT POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STILL NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THIS THING WILL TRACK AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS STARTING TO
TAKE A DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN
BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITY.
DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ALL AREAS EXCEPT
EXTREME EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S WEST TO UPPER 70S
IN THE EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AT BAY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS IT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER BRINGS THE ENHANCED RISK AS FAR EAST AS THE INDIANA OHIO
BORDER AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED BE VERY
MOISTURE STARVED BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS. FURTHER WEST...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
BEGINNING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...EXPECTING LOWS TO BE A
BIT COOLER THERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD AT
ALL AND EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
HIGHS MONDAY AND 60S FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATIONS OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE GRIDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN INCREASES BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITHOUT A TRIGGER UNDER THE INCREASING 5H
HEIGHTS IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDER CHANCES. THE LAKE BREEZE COULD PLAY A ROLL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO
WARM CONDITIONS. BELIEVE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING WHILE SSW WINDS GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TRIGGERING A BAND OF TSRA. THE HRRR KEEP JUMPING AROUND WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO THE POINT OF
BEING USELESS. WILL GO WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT GENERALLY STARTING ABOUT 23Z AND CONTINUING INTO
MON MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY JUST THE MFD/CAK/YNG AREA BY
18Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES INTO MON EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SCT NON VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY WITH WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED WAVES DUE TO
THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER
THE SWIMMING RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY ON MONDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
241 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH THIS MORNING. 1PM HUMIDITIES HERE AT
CHEYENNE DOWN TO AROUND 40 PERCENT MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE
AFTERNOON.AREA RADAR DOES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME CLUSTERS
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE REMAIN HIGH...58 AT
CHADRON AND 57 AT ALLIANCE...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS UP THAT WAY AS WELL.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING PEAK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z OR
SO. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA. SHOULD BE OUR NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK TUESDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12 TO
+14C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR
AREA AS MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA...MOVES UP ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHER
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIGHT NOW TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT
WILL SEE A RISK OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER WITH A FAIRLY
DECENT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...WE
DECREASE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST AND WE SEE A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE REGIME OF DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL AIRPORT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. CARRIED VCNTY TSRA ALL SITES
THROUGH 02Z...WITH A TEMPO MENTION OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR KBFF AND
KSNY WHERE COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE A BIT GREATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS. NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE ONCE AGAIN COME UNDER SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015
LATEST RIVER GAUGES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AT
MOST AREAS. ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT CONTINUED DECREASES. FOR THE WHITE RIVER UP IN DAWES
COUNTY NEBRASKA...FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS IN
ITS TRIBUTARIES HAS DECREASED...SO NARROWED DOWN AERIAL FLOOD
WARNING TO JUST THE RIVER. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE THAT WILL KEEP THE RIVER HIGH OUT THERE. NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC