Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 64 86 69 86 / 10 20 20 20 CAMDEN AR 64 89 67 92 / 10 0 0 10 HARRISON AR 65 85 67 86 / 10 20 20 20 HOT SPRINGS AR 65 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 68 89 71 91 / 10 10 10 20 MONTICELLO AR 65 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 10 MOUNT IDA AR 63 89 65 91 / 10 10 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 87 68 87 / 10 20 20 20 NEWPORT AR 66 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20 PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20 SEARCY AR 64 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 20 STUTTGART AR 68 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT / LONG TERM...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
706 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A QUICK LOOK AT SATURDAY SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS HAD BEEN UNDERPLAYING THIS POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z NAM SHOWED IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS AND A FEW REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CONSIDER ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOHMANN && .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED 1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA. TOLBY LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST CONVECTION. FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MJD AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA. FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS. WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
647 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY. PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY... PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. .MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA TAF SITES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY. PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY... PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. .MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA TAF SITES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU 00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS. LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NORTH TO EAST OF KCOS MAY EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 1930Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU 00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS. LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW STRATUS WL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT MIDMORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND IFR AT KCOS. AFTER MIDMORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB. THIS AFTERNOON IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS OR A TSTMS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z LOW STRATUS WL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB AND SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON KALS SHOULD HAVE BREEZY S TO SW WINDS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
129 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5 AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH. TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 ...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD... THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO THE MID LVL SW FLOW. FRIDAY... CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY... CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL. SUNDAY... TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE. MONDAY... FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. TUES...WED... FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE. /HODANISH && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5 AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH. TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 ...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY... CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 ...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD... THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO THE MID LVL SW FLOW. FRIDAY... CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY... CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL. SUNDAY... TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE. MONDAY... FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. TUES...WED... FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE. /HODANISH && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY THEN OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NW INTERIOR ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS THE HUDSON RIVER. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALSO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED UNTIL LATE OR SAT MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH RH VALUES THOUGH WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. A GUSTY NLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. MET MOS IS WARMER ON SAT AS THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS MOVEMENT...EXPANSION. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR IN SCT TO BKN STRATUS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUTSIDE NYC METRO. ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. BY AFTERNOON...SKIES CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 12-14Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEA BREEZES...OTHER THAN KGON POSSIBLY LATE. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW GUSTS 20-25KT PM. .TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GIVES TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ISSUANCE OF SCA ON SAT. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING N FLOW. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD MONDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/DW NEAR TERM...DW/DS SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...JC/PW MARINE...GC/DW HYDROLOGY...GC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT DROP FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CT/WESTERN MA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES...AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN TACONICS A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS COULD EVEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP/EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS WELL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES YIELDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S...COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT ASSUMING LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-90 NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER...MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD BRINGING CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AS THE MOISTENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/PVS ECMWF) FOR THIS PERIOD. HWVR THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF MOISTURE IS GREATER BY FRIDAY THAN PVS RUNS HAD IT. FRIDAY BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RH OVER THE RGN FROM THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND AN INCRG SE LLVL FLOW. MEANWHILE TO THE N...A CDFNT ONLY REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY BY 00UTC SAT. AT 500 HPA A TROF MOVING THRU N QB/LAB SHARPENS FRI...WHILE THE CUTOFF OVER NC EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLC. THE N TROF IS SUF TO PUSH THE CDFNT THRU THE FCA FRI NT. THIS FRONTAL TIMING IS SLOWER THAN PVS RUNS...BUT UNTIL FRI EVNG THE FCA IS SANDWICHED BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR FRI. INSPITE OF ALL THE LLVL MOISTURE THE DAY STARTS WITH MUCH OF THAT SHIFTS EAST IN THE MRNG. THE STRONG JUNE SUN MIXES SOME THE REST OUT. MOST STAT GUID IS SUG BKN CLOUD COVER AND SOME SUNSHINE FRI. CFP WILL REACH NW CORNER OF FCA DURING FRI EVNG. AT THE TIME OF CFP DURING FRI EVNG SB CAPES N & W OF ALB REACH 200-600 J/KG ON THE GFS AND 500-1000 J/KG ON THE USUALLY OVER JUICED NAM. MEANWHILE DCAPE IN NW FCA REACH 600-800 FRI AFTN. ALSO 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 15-20 KTS SOUTH AND 20 TO 30 KTS N FRI EVNG. WHILE THE SVR THREAT IS LOW...SOME SUB SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW FRI EVNG. FOR NOW WILL FCST SCT -SHRA/TSTMS NW AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA..ISOLD TSTM FURTHER S & E...OVERALL THE BEST CHC N & W OF ALB FRI AFTN AND EVNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S. FRI NT THE 500HPA TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS RGN AND DRIVES CDFNT S. WHILE THE GEM IS FASTER...ALL THE MDLS HAVE CDFNT TO THE CST BFE DAYBREAK SAT. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMP IT S THROUGH THE RGN...BUT THE INSTAB IS LIMITED WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF ALB. BY SAT MRNG MASSIVE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO GRTLKS AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE RGN. SAT WILL BE SUNNY BUT BRISK N WINDS AT TIMES USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR INTO FCA. AFTN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH 60S OVER N HIR TRRN. SAT NT FLAT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR FCA AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER NYS AND NEW ENG. WHILE AN IDEAL RADIATION NIGHT...THE SHORT 9 HOURS OF DARKNESS WILL KEEP IT IN CHECK WITH MINS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCRG SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 70S..AND FEW NEAR 80 SOUTH VLYS. SKIES MAY BCM PC AS INCR LLVL MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW ARND HIGH WILL RESULT IN MORE CU. SUN NT WMFNT APPROACHES RGN FM SW AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC SHORT WV MV INTO THE GRTLKS. CLOUDS AND THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTM WILL INCR OVERNIGHT. THE GEM KEEPS MOST PCP WEST OF RGN...GFS ALLUDES TO POSSIBLE MCS DUN NT INTO MON MRNG. FOR NOW CHC -SHRA/TSTM WILL SUFFICE. SUN NT WILL BE A MUCH WARMER MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN OF LATE WITH MINS ARND 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED AS 1Z GFS/CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE FRONT GOES BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ENERGY FROM THE STRONG UPPER AIR LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA...COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THURSDAY. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN THROUGH DAYBREAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND GROUND FOG MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-11Z/THU. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH KPOU AND KALB AS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z- 13Z/THU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST OCCASIONAL HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD 06Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THU...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DECREASING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...HWJIV/KL FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS NOSING DOWN BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS HAS ALLOWED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WAS PUSHING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND. THE OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST BEFORE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. BUT THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURRING NEAR THE LAKE-SUMTER COUNTY LINE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION FOR ISOLATED EVENING STORMS THERE AND INTO WESTERN METRO ORLANDO. THEREAFTER WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS THE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO PUSH ANY ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTO THE COAST. MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FRI-SUN...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW BROADEN/OPEN FRI TRANSITIONING SEAWARD SAT INTO SUN AS MODEST UPPER RIDGING REPLACES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INVERTED SFC TROUGHING JUST OFF THE SEABOARD WILL DEVELOP SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE MARITIMES TRAILING AND STRETCHING A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY...LOCAL BLYR FLOW WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE LOW FRI THEN GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE SCT RANGE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES INLAND. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS IN LOWER 70S. MON-THU...DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF UPPER PATTERN INDICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING LOCALLY. MOISTURE VALUES FORECAST TO STEADILY RISE. SFC PATTERN YIELDS INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW VEERING FROM SE TO S TO SW MON-THU AS RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL DIAL TO 40-50 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION FOR STORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLD ATLC SHRA MAY BRUSH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION VC TERM FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS AFTN. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZE AND GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. FRI-MON...SEAS AOB 3 FT WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT. CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE NORTHWARD FRI-SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 20 MCO 72 90 71 90 / 10 30 20 40 MLB 72 88 71 87 / 10 20 20 20 VRB 71 87 70 88 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 72 91 73 91 / 10 40 20 40 SFB 71 90 70 89 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 73 91 73 90 / 10 30 20 40 FPR 70 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ GRIDS...LASCODY IMPACT WX....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EXTENSIVE DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH SOME OF THE DRIER AIR EVEN FILTERING DOWN QUITE LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK...SO THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO AFFECT THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. DO NOT SEE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING VERY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO SMALL SHOWER CHANCES IN THE COASTAL ZONES LOOK OKAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT WELL INLAND TO MAINLY LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER/OKEECHOBEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA...WILL TWEAK INLAND POPS DOWN AND ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS SLIGHTLY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WAS INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS... COMBINED WITH TIDAL INFLUENCES FROM THE RECENT FULL MOON WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. USUALLY THESE ASTRONOMICAL CONDITIONS PRODUCE THE GREATEST RISK AT THE BEACHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND RECENT DAYTONA BEACH OCEAN RESCUE REPORTS INDICATE THAT RIP CURRENTS STILL HAVE A STRONG SEAWARD PULL. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO INTERIOR SITES BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TAFS. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...NOT MUCH WIND INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...MAYBE 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. A STEADY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE WATERS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. SEAS 1-3FT. SMALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY. EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR TERMINALS. CAE/CUB IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. CLOUDINESS IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO SCT TO BKN CU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE SATELLITE SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY. EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS WILL TRY TO WORK BACK TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING A RETURN TO IFR AT CAE/CUB...AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS. ANY MORNING FOG AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH DIRUNAL HEATING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY. EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW CLOUDINESS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. WILL EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING TO LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST ACTIVITY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE SATELLITE SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY. EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THAT IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... 214 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 335 PM CDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK. RC && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. * IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY. JEE/RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE/RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS. * TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... 348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS... PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
338 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... 214 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 335 PM CDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK. RC && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. * IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS. * TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... 348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS... PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... 214 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 348 AM CDT... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY CONDITIONS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. * IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS. * TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... 348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS... PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... 214 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S. DEUBELBEISS && .LONG TERM... 348 AM CDT... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY CONDITIONS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. * IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS. * TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... 348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS... PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY... WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING: HOWEVER, THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE STORMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. NAM IS THE FASTEST MODEL...BRINGING STORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS EARLY AS 09Z. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAPID REFRESH IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER, SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT AT THIS POINT PREFER THE SLOWER RAPID REFRESH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES, DO NOT WANT TO INCLUDE PREDOMINANT THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES YET. INSTEAD, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS AT KPIA BY 12Z, THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 16Z. BASED ON PRELIMINARY FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE MAINTAINED LOW VFR CEILINGS AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MVFR WITH LATER FORECASTS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARNES SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY... WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. POCKETS OF MVFR CLOUDS NEAR PIA WILL SHIFT EAST AND LIFT TO VFR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DESPITE PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A VEIL OF CIRRUS FROM AN MCS IN MISSOURI WILL COVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB WITH HEATING TODAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. A NOCTURNAL MCS IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF IL THIS EVE...AND ROLL INTO WESTERN IL LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS HOLD OUR STORMS FOR PIA AND SPI UNTIL AFTER 08-09Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS NO STORMS NEAR OUR TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. VCTS WAS STILL INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE MCS. MVFR VIS AND CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY STORMS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START OUT SSE, THEN BECOME SW AND CLIMB TO 8-10KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KT TONIGHT AND REMAIN SW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARNES SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO GO DRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS HENRY COUNTY ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE TRYING TO FORM IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF KALO. THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. 00Z UA DATA INDICATES THE NEW NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND HAVING IT GROW UPSCALE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. THE 18Z UKMET/GFS/WRF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS DID RAP TRENDS OF THE PAST 4 HOURS. THE INCOMING 00Z WRF RUN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED PRIOR TO REACHING THE AREA. A MATURE/DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSTJ/KFNB AT SUNRISE THURSDAY. BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DICTATE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS/EVOLVES ON THURSDAY. DATA CURRENTLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT POTENTIALLY WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON TRENDS...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE UKMET/WRF/GFS AND RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND WERE MOVING EAST. LACK OF CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL EXIST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE PLENTY OF DRY HOURS. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE MODELS TOTALLY DRY. I WILL ONLY HAVE 30 POPS DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST MAINLY IN THE PLAINS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE. LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE OR FAIR TO POOR WITH SOLUTIONS POOR ABILITY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN TRANSLATE THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERIFICATION FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF EVOLUTIONS ARE POORLY HANDLED. PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MODERATE STRENGTH AND MATURING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. THIS WILL IMPACT REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY PM AND EVENING WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. LOCAL PAST EVENTS SUGGEST AREAS OF .5 TO LOCALLY 1.5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY PM IF HAVE ENOUGH HEATING. IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY. OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION POOR TO VERY WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH HI-RES ECMWF AND FORCING FROM UKMET THE MOST ADEQUATE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS LARGE AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN SOLUTIONS WITH A 60/40 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS AND 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING. THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING FROM MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE NEAR MIDNIGHT OR LATER WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTH NEAR INFLOW REGION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON MINS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUGGESTING LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH IN SOUTH FOR LATER SHIFTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL BUT FAR NORTH. FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. RELIABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND EVENING. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESS WILL PRECLUDE RELIABILITY OF ANY SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE OR FAR E SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 DEGREES NE TO SW WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME AREAS MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SUGGESTED TO FALL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN TIMING AN ISSUE AS MENTIONED BEFORE. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. CLEARING LATE IN NE SECTIONS SUGGESTED FOR MINS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR A SEASONABLE DAY WITH SOME LATE PM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM IN FAR WEST TOWARD EVENING WITH NEXT APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS SUGGESTED WITH NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE FOR MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS ISSUE SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH 60 TO 65 DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 77 TO 83 A DECENT STARTING POINT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION TO END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...DRY TO MOSTLY DRY AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/04. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. KBRL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BUT KCID/KMLI/KDBQ MIGHT SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT 15Z/04 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AFT 18Z/04 AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN IOWA AFT 00Z/05. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...NICHOLS AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 REST OF TONIGHT: SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALONG & NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS PARKED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN & RUSSELL COUNTIES TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. WITH SW UPPER-DECK FLOW PREVAILING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN KS. TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION HAVE KEPT TORNADO #252 IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN COUNTIES BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER & QPF...REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS UNTIL ~5AM WHEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHWEST & WESTERN KS MAY VENTURE INTO THESE SUBDIVISIONS. .UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS INSERT TORNADO WATCH #252 FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION. THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY. MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT AREA. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH. KRC .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER. KRC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THRU THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH SCT DECKS ~3,000FT ARE POSSIBLE E OF I-135 TOWARD 12Z. S WINDS WILL INCREASE MID-LATE THU MRNG WITH SUSTAINED 17KTS/20MPH WITH 22-30KT/25-35MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS & GUSTS LKLY ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 69 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 10 NEWTON 67 87 67 87 / 20 20 20 10 ELDORADO 69 87 68 88 / 10 10 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 68 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 67 87 66 89 / 30 20 40 10 GREAT BEND 67 89 66 89 / 30 10 30 10 SALINA 68 88 68 89 / 40 20 30 10 MCPHERSON 68 88 67 89 / 30 20 30 10 COFFEYVILLE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10 IOLA 68 86 68 86 / 20 20 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW. TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EAST COLORADO...SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL REACH KGLD FIRST AND KMCK AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. HAIL...WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS IS NOW DEVELOPING AND MVFR CIGS ARE NOW REPORTED AT KGLD. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO LIFR BY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED AT KGLD WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY FURTHER WEST. FOG/STRATUS DECK ERODES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...DDT AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1111 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW. TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND STRATUS REACHING BOTH TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS IS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RAPIDLY ADVANCING WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD PLACE KGLD UNDER THE THREAT OF SOME FOG. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. THINK THIS AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS SOUTH OF BOTH SITES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...DDT AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON OUT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER. AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON WED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE VA AND WV BORDERS. AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST THUNDER AT ANY TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCTS AT SJS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO FRIDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON OUT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER. AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON WED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 FOG HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID 50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY BURN OFF AND CIGS TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. STILL EXPECTING A SIMILAR DAY TODAY TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GENERALLY BORDERING THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON RAIN/THUNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR IN THE FAR EAST...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT KSJS AND KJKL...AND AS FAR WEST AS KLOZ. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AT KSYM AND KSME. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF LATE LAST NIGHT/INTO THIS MORNING WITH CONCERNS TO THE FOG. WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXACT IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT TODAY...AND CLOUD COVER/TEMPS OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM UPDATE... LOCLDS ARE STUCK UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER 00Z CAR RAOB. TRENDED MIN TEMPS UP JUST A TAD MORE AND ALSO INCREASED CLD CVR THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR WRN ZONES TWD 09Z. PREV DISCOS BLO... 930 PM UPDATE...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SEEM TO BE HANGING ON LONGER THEN EXPECTED...WITH THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWING THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 850MB. TRENDED CLOUD COVER UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT...TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF FROST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HANGING ON AND DEWPOINTS NOT MOVING MUCH ON THE EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW...FEEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. 630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACRS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH LEVELS AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE 40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .AVIATION... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU MAINLY IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE. THIS CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DTW TAF SITE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED SO SHOWER CHANCE WITH PASSAGE WILL BE LOW. WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY FROM THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE. SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ALL TAF SITES. FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY IS LOW. THE LATER THE PASSAGE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY IT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPDATE... 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO. WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION /IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FOUR NIGHTS. LONG TERM... NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND. CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB. MARINE... DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DRC UPDATE.......DRC SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO. WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS /BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION /IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FOUR NIGHTS. LONG TERM... NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND. CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB. MARINE... DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......DRC AVIATION.....SC SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .AVIATION... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS /BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION /IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FOUR NIGHTS. LONG TERM... NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND. CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB. MARINE... DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION /IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FOUR NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM... NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND. CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB. && .MARINE... DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH JUST A SCT-BKN PATCH OF LOWER VFR STRATUS TRYING TO EDGE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY H95/H8 FLOW INCREASES GRADUALLY AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN SCT WORDING FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK NOTABLY THIS EVENING...SO BKN CIGS WILL BE MORE THE EXCEPTION AND UNLIKELY ANYWHERE NORTH OF KPTK. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW IN CEILINGS LESS THAN 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC AVIATION.....DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN INTO WCNTRL WI PRODUCING LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PER TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA IS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ALLIGNED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER H7 RH AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA THAT FORMED JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE ON THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM OVER REST OF EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO LK MICHIGAN REGION. TWEAKED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER EAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO CLIPPED BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES ON LAND JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF MQT TRIES TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. BASED ON OBSERVED PRESSURE FALLS THIS EVENING...SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI...SIMILAR TO WHAT 18Z NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOWED AND NOT LIKE THE WRAPPED UP AND FARTHER NORTH RAP MODEL. THUS...LIKE IDEA FM GOING FORECAST THAT GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER SCNTRL CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SFC LOW. THIS IS ALSO WHERE GREATEST MOSITURE TRANSPORT IS ALLIGNED AT H85-H7. TSRA CHANCES REST OF THE NIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA SEEM MINIMAL BASED ON UPSTREAM LIGHTNING TRENDS AND FORECAST DEPARTURE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. DOWNPLAYED TSRA OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT DID NOT GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY DUE TO THE STRONGER/COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING. LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THURSDAY MORNING THINKING FOG WILL BECOME BIGGER ISSUE OVER WEST-NORTHWEST CWA AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE DENSE FOG...BUT JUST INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE MUCH OF THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW OVER MN HAVE LED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/WI BORDER AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST FROM THERE OVER CENTRAL MN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER AND NEAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE SHOWERS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI ARE LIKELY NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS DRY LOW LEVELS ARE PRESENT. SHORT TERM TRENDS SEEM WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR...WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION TO THE W-SW SHIFTING NNE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ENTERING FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND 03Z THU...WHICH IS THE GENERAL IDEA AMONG OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CWA TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED UNDER AND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP PLACEMENT/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS (NAM/NAM-DNG/GEM- REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP HIGH-RES WRFS) HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTION...SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP ALONG THE SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE THE NCENTRAL AS WELL. NO FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WARMEST S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE OVER MT 00Z FRI. NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN GOES TO THE RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. POPS MOVE OUT FOR THU NIGHT AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR EARLY THU NIGHT...THEN WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT THAT GETS FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z MON. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS OUT TUE INTO WED. HAVE POPS IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUE WITH LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER NW WISCONSIN. AS BOTH AREAS OF RAIN ARE MOVING E TO NE...EXPECT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MOVE IN OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN DIMINISHES. IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE LIKELY...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN THE MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS FAVOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. AT KSAW...EXPECT RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOOON WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF IFR CLOUDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WITH LOWER VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15 KTS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL STRETCH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. FINALLY...WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND THICKNESS...SO WILL JUST HAVE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW STRATUS/ST-CUMULUS CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTN DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FIELD BLW 3K. NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA/SHRA OVER EASTERN SD HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX AND RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN WC/CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS INCREASING INSTABILITY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REDEVELOPING AFT 3Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015 A FAIRLY QUIET LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY DAY 7... WITH A STEADY SLOW WARMING TREND OVER TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL... SO DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GOING FORECAST. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL MAINLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SO NOT A PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG ADVERTISED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40KT... THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS... ALTHOUGH THEY/D LIKELY JUST BE A HAIL THREAT. ONCE SATURDAY NIGHT/S PCPN MOVES OUT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHRA OVER THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME... WITH A WEAK FROPA WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PCPN... ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE. BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 DENSE STRATUS AND WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLDS THIS MORNING...AND WITH HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...IT SEEMS THAT IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HR OR TWO BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO VFR...OR HIGH END MVFR. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT MOST OF THE LOW CLDS SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR BETWEEN 18-20Z...THEN LOW END VFR DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR IN EC MN/WC WI...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WC/SW MN DUE TO MORE HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK AS OF 1215 PM. BY THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE WIND FLOW BLW 3K...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. BEST SCENARIO IS TO SEE HOW CLDS ERODE THIS AFTN AND SEE HOW A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA TRANSLATE ACROSS SE SD...AND INTO SW MN. KMSP... LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. ESPECIALLY DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV 1.7K DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE THIS AFTN...THEN MORE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASING SOME. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI AFTN...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS. SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS. SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM... AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD GROUPS COVERS THE TERMINALS FROM IFR TO MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF LIFR NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BEFORE 00Z WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND HAVE A VCSH MENTION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECTING SOME BR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10 INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10 INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10 INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021- 037. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE. EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL 15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10 INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021- 037. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10 INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021- 037. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS. THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE. EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL 15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10 INL 68 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10 BRD 72 54 73 50 / 20 20 10 10 HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10 ASX 61 44 63 39 / 40 20 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAVE BEEN TRENDS OF BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK ARE THERE ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HAVE A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER THE REGION NOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER EAU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO THE NW NEAR BEMIDJI. RAIN IS NOW EAST OF ALL TERMINALS AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MORE PRECIP THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IS LIFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FILL IN...RESULTING IN A BAGGY SFC TROUGH. WITHIN THIS BAGGY TROUGH WE NOW HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE THANKS TO RECENT RAINS AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR GENERATING LOW STRATUS AND BR. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/GFSLAMP WITH THE STRATUS EVENTUALLY FINDING ITS WAY TO ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WRN WI BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN. INDICATIONS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RAP IS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY BE QUITE HESITANT TO LEAVE CENTRAL MN...SO DID SLOW DOWN IMPROVEMENTS AT AXN/STC. EVENTUALLY...ARRIVAL OF NE SFC WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF ANY MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS UNDER 1K FT TO START THE DAY THURSDAY. 500 FT CIG IN TAF IS LIKELY THE LOWER BOUND FOR CIGS...WITH HEIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FEET LIKELY INTO THE MORNING. WITH WEAK SFC WINDS...WE MAY BE A BIT EARLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR...THOUGH THE SUN BEING ABOUT AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS IT GETS DOES BODE WELL FOR BREAKING THE LOW STRATUS UP BY 18Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS. SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS. SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm clusters are a possibility through mid evening. With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front" is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be to the north. Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall chances will be fairly low. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday. The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks fairly quiet. On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant moisture progged to be in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 Convection was mostly on the wane across the area. A few storms were developing on the outflow from the SGF storm and may track towards the BBG site between 23z and 01z and for this reason have kept in VCTS for the BBG site through 01z. Elsewhere, generally expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening. Have thrown in some MVFR conditions overnight for light fog development at BBG/SGF with a light wind and clearing sky, expecting some fog development between 09z and 14z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 ...18Z Aviation Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that is won`t survive this far south, given increasing heights/inhibition across the area. The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45 AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half or so of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog development. This will likely persist through the morning rush hour. Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale trends. A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine, 80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on out east, another day in the 70s is possible. Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast updates as mesoscale trends will rule. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week. The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any) outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind. A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have been included with this forecast each day. Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward normal next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Mid and high level cloud cover will remain in place over the area for much of the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm chances will generally remain north and east of the terminals, though thunderstorms can`t be ruled out 1. later this afternoon at SGF and BBG, though chances are too low attm for TAF inclusion, and 2. early tomorrow morning as an expected complex of storms drops south toward the area. Chances of convection affecting JLN and SGF tomorrow morning are high enough for a PROB30 group attm, though overall confidence in timing, track, and strength of convection late tonight and early tomorrow morning is rather low. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Boxell SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Gagan AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1047 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 ...Short Term Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that is won`t survive this far south, given increasing heights/inhibition across the area. The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45 AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half or so of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog development. This will likely persist through the morning rush hour. Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale trends. A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine, 80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on out east, another day in the 70s is possible. Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast updates as mesoscale trends will rule. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week. The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any) outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind. A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have been included with this forecast each day. Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward normal next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours. BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the next 24 hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Boxell SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Gagan AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 ...12z Aviation Forecast Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog development. This will likely persist through the morning rush hour. Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale trends. A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine, 80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on out east, another day in the 70s is possible. Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast updates as mesoscale trends will rule. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week. The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any) outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind. A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have been included with this forecast each day. Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward normal next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours. BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the next 24 hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Gagan AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 A weak convective complex has formed over SC Nebraska into far NW Missouri, and has gradually started to slide south with time. Unlike last night this complex has a little better environment with which to sustain itself, as MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg ahead of the complex and effective bulk shear values are approaching 25 to 35 knots. Both parameters are an improvement over what yesterday morning`s complex had. Also according to SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT values are approaching 1.8 inches where the storms are located, and only fall off marginally with southward extent, as a good portion of eastern Kansas and western Missouri contain 1.6 to 1.7 inches of precipitable water. This will allow this complex to have very efficient rain rates, as it eventually slides into the forecast area. Short range models have been pretty consistent with this complex eventually sliding south/southeast through western Missouri. Should this complex slide south as the short-term hi-res models suggest it could bring another round of morning and early afternoon thunderstorms to the area, which would exacerbate the already ongoing flooding problems across the area. Tough to say exactly how much rain each area will receive, but considering the generally slow motion of this complex along with a fairly efficient rain-making ability, it`s conceivable that some areas could see another 1 to several inches of rain through the morning hours. As a result of this concern, a flash flood watch continue for the area through 10 am. This afternoon`s chances for severe convection will depend much on how this complex moves through the area. If the complex drops south as the models suggest it`s conceivable that there could be enough lingering cloud cover to prevent much in the way of afternoon/evening destabilization. Should the complex take on more of an easterly component or fizzle out early there could be enough of a clearing period to get some destabilization. Confluence along a mesoscale/synoptic boundary which will likely run through northern Kansas and/or southern Nebraska will be maximized likely to the west of the forecast area, and this max confluence will be the best focus for afternoon convection. Across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, depending on how the boundary sets up there will not be quite a good of a chance to get a storm going along the weaker confluence, but NAM indicates a relatively uncapped environment, so it may not take much to get a storm going this afternoon. Should a surface based storm get going this afternoon there will be plenty of instability, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE as well as 30 to 40 kts of deep shear. This would be ample for supercellular activity, with all modes of severe weather possible, again, mainly west of I-29 and north of HWY 36. As the afternoon/evening convection grows upscale into a complex, another round of heavy rain is possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday convection again is dependent on how Thursday night evolves, but for now models want to move the mid level ridge more centered over the forecast area, which would serve as a bit of a dampener to mid day convection, however, with some mid level flow over the apex of the ridge, it`s possible that once again, overnight MCS development will roll through the area, bringing yet more heavy rain. Saturday then sees the boundary likely move north of the forecast area, which should take the best chances of severe weather with it. MCS formation from Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms could conceivably move over the area, but given the likely initiation as well as the somewhat flattened mid level ridge it`s more likely that the complex(es) will ride north of at least Interstate 70, if not north of Missouri all together. The rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week as the mid level pattern transitions into more of a eastern trough scenario with a sagging boundary. Should the boundary sag across the area the generally zonal flow could result in one or several days of training cells, so will continue to watch for more days of potentially heavy rain through the mid range and extended forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn hours as the cold pool takes over. With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms, especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish themselves from the morning convection. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025- 102>105. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005- 011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...Leighton AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 Convection continues moving slowly eastward through southeast Nebraska and northwest MO with more scattered activity across northeast MO. The convection across northwest MO will likely weaken later this morning as it shifts further southeast into our forecast area as it encounters slightly more stable air and slightly less low level moisture. Should see at least scattered convection across northeast and central MO this morning. There may be some redevelopment this afternoon along left over outflow boundaries from late night/morning convection across central and eastern MO, generally west of the Mississippi River. The morning convective cloud debris should hinder the maximum temperatures today, especially across northeast and central MO. GKS .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 A shortwave overtopping the upper level ridge over the southern Plains should lead to another MCS which will impact at least northeast MO late tonight. Convection will spread into the rest of the forecast area on Friday, particularly across west central and southwest IL as the shortwave drops southeastward through IL and a cold front drops southward through the area. Much of the convection may shift south and southwest of our forecast area Friday night and Saturday as a surface ridge over the Great Lakes region noses into our area with slightly more stable and drier air filtering southward into much of the forecast area. Temperatures may also be a little cooler Friday night and Saturday, especially across northeast MO and west central IL. Another shortwave will overtop the upper level ridge Saturday night into Sunday, but it appears that most of the convection associated with this feature will remain north of our forecast area. The threat for convection wlll shift southward into our area Sunday night and Monday as an upper level trough develops over the Great Lakes region, breaking down or flattening the upper level ridge and causing another cold front to sag southward into our area. The ECMWF model shifts the precipitation south of our forecast area by Monday night, while the GFS is slower with the southward progression of the convection keeping it going across at least the southern half of the forecast area through Tuesday evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF model generate precipitation across the southern portion of the forecast area on Wednesday due to an upper level trough/low moving eastward through the southern Plains. GKS && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70 corridor towards the end of the forecast period. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 84 67 84 63 / 30 30 60 40 Quincy 81 67 80 60 / 50 70 70 30 Columbia 84 67 83 64 / 30 40 40 40 Jefferson City 84 67 85 64 / 30 40 40 40 Salem 81 65 82 62 / 10 20 60 40 Farmington 82 63 84 63 / 10 10 40 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog development. This will likely persist through the morning rush hour. Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale trends. A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine, 80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on out east, another day in the 70s is possible. Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast updates as mesoscale trends will rule. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week. The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any) outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind. A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have been included with this forecast each day. Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward normal next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight. Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now. Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog overnight at SGF/BBG. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Gagan AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Have lowered near term PoPs to reflect current radar trends and a more northern solution of MCS development into south central/southeast NE per 01Z HRRR and 00Z NAM. While initial convection over north central KS was a bit further south than anticipated the trend has been for new development to take place towards south central NE with smaller cells popping up towards southeast NE. This fits with the location of h8 jet per latest VWPs which intersects the western edge of highest PWs. So, have pared back PoPs over the southern CWA and focused higher PoPs over northwest MO/northeast KS. Given the above expectations believe flash flooding remains a high concern over northwest MO and northeast KS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Very active pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms possible as early as this afternoon and this evening, potentially continuing off and on into the weekend. This potential for repeated rounds of storms will continue to pose a threat for flash flooding into the weekend. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms have already developed along an elevated boundary over north central KS, being fed by a low-level jet nosing into the area. This jet is forecast to weaken and pull back a bit through the early evening, while storm motion vectors push these storms into a more stable airmass over far eastern KS and western MO in the wake of this morning`s MCS. Would therefore expect this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches the KS/MO state line with the stronger activity staying to our west for the next several hours. A better chance for widespread thunderstorms, possibly evolving into another organized convective complex, will arrive overnight when a stronger impulse will eject out of the Rockies into our region and interact with a re-intensifying low-level jet nosing into northeast KS. This would conceptually bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southeast NE and northeast KS which could roll southeast into western MO through early Thursday. Unfortunately models are really struggling to resolve convection in this pattern so confidence is not terribly high on this. Nevertheless, torrential rains from Wednesday morning combined with our anomalously wet May has left soils incapable of holding much if any additional water. In fact 3-hour flash flood guidance is 1.5" or lower for most areas near and west of I-35 with some spots under an inch. Additionally, many ingredients are in place for very heavy rain tonight including strong moisture advection/convergence over northeast KS and northwest MO, deep moisture and warm cloud depth and precipitable water values over 1.75" So even though there remains some uncertainty regarding storm evolution overnight, there`s a real risk for flash flooding if and where storms do develop. Therefore we issued a flash flood watch through 10 AM for areas that received the heaviest rain on Wednesday. A lot of Thursday`s storm potential depends on the timing and coverage of any activity that develops late tonight. If precipitation and clouds clear early enough, there could be another round of storms during the afternoon, some of which could be strong with slightly stronger 700- and 500-hPa winds nosing into the area. Conversely if storms are slow to move into the area in the morning, southeastern portions of the area could destabilize enough for strong storms through the early afternoon. At this time the most likely scenario seems to be similar to today with morning convection keeping things stable into the early evening. Of course, any storm that does develop will have to be watched closely for additional heavy rainfall. This active MCS pattern looks to continue into Thursday night and into Friday and Saturday. The orientation of the upper-level ridge and projected LLJ would favor storms developing over northern KS, southeast NE and IA during the daytime hours then potentially congealing into complexes that would navigate southward into our area during the evening and overnight. The heavy rain potential may be particularly enhanced on Friday and Saturday when a warm front looks to become oriented northwest to southeast from western Iowa into the Missouri Ozarks. This would be parallel to the upper flow and overall storm motion and could potentially lead to training storm complexes with very heavy rain. Confidence isn`t terribly high through this period so decided not to issue the flash flood watch beyond Thursday just yet, though it eventually may need to be. By Sunday and Monday the upper ridge to our south which is responsible for this active pattern will gradually flatten out, and could bring an end to this parade of storm complexes. However, a lingering frontal boundary near our area and a very unstable airmass could still spark storms either day. Enough northerly flow may spread into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday to finally push this active pattern to our south, but this could change. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn hours as the cold pool takes over. With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms, especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish themselves from the morning convection. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025- 102>105. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005- 011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 CWA remains high and dry at 0230z, as we watch convection over north central KS continue its slow expansion in coverage and intensity. This area...or an extension of it...should be the primary precip threat in our CWA during the predawn hours. The last few runs of the HRRR, as well as a quick peek at the 00z NAM, suggest that the main convective complex will likely remain west of our area through 12z, although westerly component of low level/850mb flow may cause some eastward expansion of weaker showers and thunderstorms during the predawn hours. Based on the very latest guidance, have taken the axis of this eastward expansion of precip through mid MO in the 09-12z time frame with chance PoPs. Other than a very minor tweak to PoPs early Thursday to dovetail tonights thunderstorm chances into going forecast, no real changes to Thursdays forecast. Obviously, exact PoPs for Thursday will likely hinge on how overnight convection evolves, so will leave any fine-tuning of Thursday`s PoPs to mid shift as they monitor overnight and early morning precip. Truett && .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 Focus remains precip chances thru tonight. MCV remnants across cntl MO shud continue to dissipate this evening. The SHRA shud continue to slowly move ewd some this afternoon into the evening while the more intense area of TSRA continues to sink SSE. That area shud start building more swd than SE. Focus then turns TSRA activity overnight. Have generally trended twd the GFS soln, tho other solns have similar ideas. Expect a complex across srn NEB/nrn KS to extend into nrn MO/srn IA late tonight into Thurs morning. Main question will be how far E this complex builds. Believe that as the upper trof over MN continues to lift newd, the weak sfc fnt will gradually sag swd. As the LLJ veers tonight, this fnt shud provide a focus for TSRA. The main question will be how far S these TSRA develop/propagate. Pulled PoPs further S compared to the prev forecast and is some concern these PoPs are still not far enuf S. With little to focus on and given that many of these features will be impacted by convection, have kept PoPs in the chance category for now. Hopefully, timing/location can be fine tuned with future updates. As for temps tonight, kept warm trends aoa warmest guidance due to cloud cover and generally sly winds. Only exception is across ern Ozarks region where low lying areas may decouple allowing more cooling. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 Not many changes from the prev forecast overall. With upper air pattern becoming more amplified and upper ridge building into the region, warming trend is expected to continue thru this weekend. However, with RA chances each day over at least some portion of the CWA, any storms and outflow bndys will complicate the temp forecast. Mdls are in an agreement bringing an upper trof and associated cdfnt swd into the region on Mon, possibly thru the CWA by Tues. That said, am not certain this fnt will push as far swd as currently advertised by mdls. Have therefore kept low PoPs behind the fnt but did trend cooler for Tues and esp on Wed. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70 corridor towards the end of the forecast period. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 65 85 68 86 / 10 30 30 50 Quincy 64 81 67 82 / 20 50 60 60 Columbia 63 83 67 85 / 30 40 30 50 Jefferson City 64 85 67 87 / 30 30 30 50 Salem 59 82 66 85 / 5 10 20 50 Farmington 60 83 62 86 / 10 10 10 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday. Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening. Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the boundary with additional convective initiation late this afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area. Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for tonight and Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will have to monitor for severe weather threat. Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active weather with periodic rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight. Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now. Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog overnight at SGF/BBG. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Raberding LONG TERM...Raberding AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
634 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... WE HAVE OVERHAULED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS/ IS DOING A TERRIBLE JOB HANDLING THE FACT THAT RAIN IS SIMPLY MUCH LIGHTER AND QUICKER-MOVING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THAT/S BECAUSE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE DEEP...MOISTURE-ROBBING CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN SD. IN SUMMARY...WE LEFT A LIKELY POP AROUND BAKER FOR A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT DRASTICALLY REDUCED POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEASTERN MT AND COMPLETELY TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WE ALSO TOOK OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS. SCHULTZ && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY...AS OF 09 UTC THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TWO SEPARATE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING A DOWN- WARD TREND RECENTLY AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING. THE OTHER SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION IN EASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD...AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTH END IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH 18 UTC TODAY IN RESPECT TO THAT AND MODEL INSISTENCE IN MOISTURE THERE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THE DEEPER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS MORE THAN LIKELY DISRUPTING MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SO WE BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL...FROM NEAR 60 F IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE HAVE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE AGAIN FEEL THAT MOST DIURNALLY-INITIATED CONVECTION WILL BE HELD RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE AREA WILL ONCE MORE BE BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BY PEAK HEATING. TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND A FEW CELLS COULD COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IT WAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITHOUT ANY DEFINED SHORT- WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES. THERE IS NONETHELESS A VERY LOW...BUT NON- ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM DURING THE EVENING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS BASED ON MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR. FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL MOVE DEEPER INTO THE 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE 00 UTC NAM ACTUALLY SUGGESTS MLCAPE COULD BE HIGHER THAN THAT /OVER 2000 J/KG/ IN PLACES LIKE SHERIDAN AND BROADUS. AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES BY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF A 500-MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON AT LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY NOT BE OVERCOME UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH. BOTH EFFECTIVE AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE HELD NEAR 30 KT...BUT WE MAY STILL HAVE ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE DEMONSTRATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH AND K-INDEX VALUES OF 35+ IS FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...AND SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOW-MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULT COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND WE MAY EVEN NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH A LATER FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES. FINALLY...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCED QUICK RISES...BUT ONCE LOCAL RUNOFF FINISHED MOST CREEKS DROPPED JUST AS FAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RESIDUAL PULSE OF WATER MOVING THROUGH SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS TODAY AND THE GREATER RISK OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WATCH IS CERTAINLY STILL WARRANTED. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. DESPITE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US...OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHUNTS A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION. AREA MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY SHERIDAN AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS. HAVE THEREFORE BROUGHT IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. KEEPING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH. WITH THE DRYING TREND...COMES WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD 80S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRIEDERS && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AREAS...FROM KBIL TO KLVM. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR CONDITIONS. FRIEDERS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 051/074 055/076 054/079 054/083 058/085 058/083 2/T 34/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 11/B 23/T LVM 071 049/072 048/074 049/077 049/082 053/082 053/080 3/T 44/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 34/T HDN 073 051/077 055/079 054/081 055/085 058/087 058/086 2/T 23/T 53/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/T MLS 066 051/078 058/078 055/081 056/084 059/085 059/084 2/T 13/T 53/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T 4BQ 066 050/076 055/076 054/079 055/082 058/084 058/084 2/T 13/T 63/T 30/B 01/B 11/B 23/T BHK 060 049/076 055/077 051/079 051/081 054/083 056/082 6/T 23/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T SHR 070 048/074 051/072 050/074 050/079 051/081 053/082 3/T 45/T 64/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 34/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 98-99. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1115 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AREA FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CENTER OVER FERGUS...AND PARTS OF JUDITH BASIN...CHOTEAU...BLAINE...AND CASCADE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0515Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNLESS OTHERWISE MENTIONED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING KBZN AND KHLN) THROUGH 09Z, AND PARTIAL CLEARING THERE COULD BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG THROUGH AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE, A DISTURBANCE IN THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 15 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA (INCLUDING KLWT AND KHVR) THROUGH AROUND 16Z. MOUNTAINS THERE WILL GENERALLY BE OBSCURED. CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOSTLY BE LOW VFR, BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 15 (INCLUDING KGTF AND KCTB), BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. COULSTON && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEAGER...JUDITH BASIN...FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER BLAINE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. NUTTER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY ARE INDICATING STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER SATURDAY, SO HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THIS TIME AND MAINLY DURING THE PEAK INSTABILITY PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY, BUT WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERALL, THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. COULSTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 69 49 72 / 50 30 20 40 CTB 44 69 42 72 / 30 30 20 10 HLN 49 72 52 75 / 70 30 30 30 BZN 45 70 48 72 / 60 20 40 40 WEY 36 66 39 68 / 30 20 20 60 DLN 43 68 47 70 / 60 30 30 40 HVR 52 69 47 76 / 50 70 20 40 LWT 50 67 49 70 / 80 60 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF. BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES OFF BAJA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORMS FIRED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH PLATTE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENT TERMINAL AREA FORECAST DOES NOT MENTION MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MODELS GREATLY VARYING LOCATIONS. THUS FELT IT WILL BE BETTER TO AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. DO HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING AND INCLUDED IN TAF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF. BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES OFF BAJA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 16Z-18Z THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MCS ACROSS SWRN SD COULD BRUSH NRN NEB THIS MORNING AFFECTING KVTN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD LIFT INTO SD AND REMAIN NORTH OF NEB. MEANWHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN NEB WILL MOVE MOSTLY EAST- NORTHEAST. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE FCST AREA COULD REMAIN STORM FREE THROUGH 21Z. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM 22Z ONWARD ACROSS WRN AND SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WEAKEN 06Z-09Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 03Z ONWARD. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF. BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES OFF BAJA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT...BY 07Z...THE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY 08Z NEAR A LXN-MHN-OGA LINE. THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH LATER TIME FOR THE MERGER...SOMETIME 10Z OR LATER. THE TIMING CAN BE TIED DOWN TO ABOUT A FOUR-HOUR PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD AN EARLIER TIME AND SET 08Z FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT LBF. WITH EASTERLY WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH 1000-1500 FEET CEILINGS LIKELY AND A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET. THE PROBABILITY OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF FOR THE TIME BEING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FIRING ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. H500 HEIGHTS WERE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS LENDING TO THE SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...LIKELY MAKING PROGRESS TO ABOUT I80 BEFORE TURNING EAST AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS...AND NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THE SEVERE STORMS HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING. A LONE STORM WELL EAST OF THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RICHARDSON COUNTY AND LIKELY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH SOME REGENERATION ON THE BACK SIDE. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND IN SOUTHEAST NE. ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS PW VALUES WERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WITH BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM. CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z. HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED. FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM. SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR 40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE. BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES. SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES. WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD AFFECT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 10-14Z. BELIEVE KOFK MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS 11-14Z. COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 11-16Z...THEN SCATTERING OUT. COULD BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...LIKELY BY 18-21Z AND BEYOND...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE... WILL LET LATER FORECASTS FINE TUNE THE DETAILS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ078-088>093. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST UTAH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND SKY GRIDS...NAMELY TO REDUCE SKY COVER ACROSS THE DESERTS WHERE FAIRLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE. SOME ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHERN MOHAVE...AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THESE AREAS WELL HANDLED. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN LINCOLN COUNTY HAVE BEEN STRONG AT TIMES...WITH PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR PANACA BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD IMPLY THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED. -OUTLER- && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS A MIX OF SUN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOS ANGELES BASIN WITH A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HAVING PUNCHED NORTHEAST AS FAR AS CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWFA REMAIN STABLE AND THUS DRY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MAIN STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN SOUTHERLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THE BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES, ENOUGH CAPE, GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LAPS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY NOTED AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS HERE TRIGGER WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HOLD ON LONGER AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND LATER CENTRAL NYE COUNTY FROM UTAH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT, MOST MODELS DO NOT SHUT DOWN ACTIVITY ALTOGETHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THUS WE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WHICH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS MT CHARLESTON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CUMULUS HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GROW OVER CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, POPS OVER MT CHARLESTON MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING IN MOST SPOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES GETTING SUCKED INTO ARIZONA BUT THIS WILL SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO GET FED BY THE LOW`S BROAD CIRCULATION BACK INTO OUR AREA. SO OVER THE WEEKEND, ANY MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE WHAT IS ALREADY CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST CENTER OF THE LOW`S CIRCULATION. THUS, THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES IN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. PROSPECTS LOOK EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER DECREASES. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR SATURDAY THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE THE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO STRETCH OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ESSENTIALLY JUST BECOMES AN ELONGATED PIECE OF ENERGY STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY, WE MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO LAS VEGAS. THEN ALL EYES START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AT WE EYE WHAT GOES ON WITH BLANCA. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE BLANCA AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, BLANCA IS STILL SLATED TO BE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MONDAY MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY STEER THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON CERTAIN FEATURES, MODELS HAVE INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT ON A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF BLANCA, I CANNOT IGNORE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. HAVE UPPED DEWPOINTS EVEN MORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND YET MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH IN SOME LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING MID- LEVEL FORCING WORKING NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THE TROUGH MAY EVEN PULL A LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD, TOWARD US. WITH DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AT LEAST THE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, HAVE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE MORE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. THE MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO INCREASED POPS SOME MORE WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LARGER DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY GET INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW MORE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE UNUSUAL FOR JUNE AND MAY KEEP SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SOME AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HAVE TRENDED THEM COOLER FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE 4-8 KTS EARLY THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONFIGURATION ISSUES AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z SATURDAY AS WINDS VARY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AFTER 05Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MAINLY AFTER 20Z FROM NEAR A LINE FROM KIYK-KELY ON NORTHWEST AND FROM A LINE FROM KELY-KIGM ON NORTHEAST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. BASED COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI LONG TERM...PADDOCK FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...ATTM DO HAVE A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE BETWEEN OAK ISLAND AND SURF CITY...VIA KLTX 88D. WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN WITH PWS ACROSS THE FA PROGGED AROUND 1.50 INCHES. A SFC BASED INVERSION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS DECOUPLING. AS A RESULT...FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN LOW LEVEL STRATUS. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS...AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL AND RAOB DATA TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO HIT THE FOG HARDER. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS...WITH MID 60S COVERING IT...EXCEPT UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PREVIOUS..................................................... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER LIFTING INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 80. MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE MID 70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW. HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END OF THE DAY AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND. THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON MOST SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR AREA AND CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY ALSO MOVE DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AS THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS. EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO 500 MB ON SATURDAY MAY HELP TRIP OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST DURING AND FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING...AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS PINNED ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR. AS THE WEAK LOW MIGRATES EAST AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESS IN FROM THE NORTH AND FORM INTO A WEDGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXIMUMS ON SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY....WITH POTENTIALLY AN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GRADUAL THICKNESS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND TO LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE FORMATION AND SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEARS THE BEST TIME-FRAME FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST CLIMO EACH AFTN. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THURSDAY WHEN SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT IS JUNE...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN PASSAGE...SO WILL SHOW FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FEEL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE THANKS TO HIGH HEAT INDICES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TUES/WED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND STALLS...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL WANE BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-CHC EVEN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...QUIET VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AOB 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NW-N FLOW TO BACK TO THE WSW-WNW OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF ANY SFC PG WILL YIELD WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PINNED SEA BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS NEARSHORE THRU MID-EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SEAS IN THE FORM OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 SECOND PERIODS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OVERNIGHT THAT COULD DRIFT PARTIALLY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PREVIOUS...................................................... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT. OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK BUT VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST AND OFFSHORE INTO LATE SATURDAY. A BIT OF A NE SURGE OF WIND CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS S OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS...BRINGING NE WINDS TO 15 KT AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE-E SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING IN A 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT SATURDAY MAY BUMP UP TO 3-4 FT SUNDAY AS NE WINDS INCREASE. SEAS ESE 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS MIXED WITH LIGHT CHOP SATURDAY AND A MODERATE 1-1.5 FT NE CHOP SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE INSHORE SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AND STALL JUST IN THE VICINITY INSTEAD OF MAKING A CLEAN PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS RISING FROM 5-10 KTS MONDAY...TO 15-20 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY. A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEED ALONG WITH A VEERING TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SE THAT FRONT MAKES IT...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND WAVE AND SE GROUND SWELL...BOTH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...FROM 2-3 FT MONDAY TO 3-5 FT LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY...AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DUE TO THE IMPINGING UPPER LOW MIGRATING ENE OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM. LOW LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR MAY AID IN A BROKEN LINE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. DUE TO OVERALL LIGHT COLUMN WINDS AND STEERING FLOW AS THIS UPPER FEATURES TRAVERSES...STORM MOTION MAY BE SLUGGISH BUT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH. THE LIGHT COLUMN WINDS WILL HINDER OVERALL POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...BUT SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT. DIURNAL COOLING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE DWINDLE. MINIMUMS TONIGHT MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S BEHIND A WEAK POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND LINGERING CLOUDS....NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE REGION MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE REGION WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE FORCING WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND BACK UP ABOVE THAT VALUE ON SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AREA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE CAN DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK 5H TROUGHING ON SUN WILL FILL MON AS MID LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES FLAT/PROGRESSIVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID LINGERING MOISTURE AND NO REAL CAPPING DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CARRY SLT CHC TO CHC POP SUN/MON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS 5H TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE 5H TROUGH MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TUE INTO WED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LEFT BEHIND...FORMING A SEMI CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE STRONGER AND MEANDERS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. EITHER SOLUTION RESULTS IN THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. INHERITED FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE POP WISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SO PLAN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE INLAND WITH EQUALLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVERING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS WITH A LIGHT CHOP NE-E WIND CHOP. ISOLATED TSTMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM WATERS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WATER SPOUTS INTO EARLY EVENING BENEATH ANY DEVELOPING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WINDS WILL HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CONDITIONS FOR A NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AN SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY MON AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUE WITH WINDS MON BEING DRIVEN MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. MODIFIED SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TUE BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON WIND FIELD. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE UPPER LOW EASING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ASSOCIATED AROUND AND BENEATH THE FEATURE. MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS HELD SURFACE WARMING TO MINIMUM VALUES. AS A RESULT NO NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HOWEVER ARE BEGINNING TO EXPAND PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN COLUMN LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE BY 18Z ALONG THE LENGTH OF OUR COASTAL INTERIOR SEPARATELY FORMED FROM THE COOL POOL OVER INTERIOR SC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL ALSO FORM BENEATH THE UPPER SWIRL ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SC...WHICH MAY EXHIBIT LITTLE MOTION OVERALL. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER INTERIOR SC. MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY SINCE PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS ALREADY DEBUTING IN MANY AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S MORE LIKELY THROUGH AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE LEAVING ONLY THE USUAL CULPRITS FOR CONVECTION...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE SATURDAY. I HAVE DECREASED POPS BASICALLY ACROSS THE BOARD. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WITH THESE FEATURES BUT TIMING OBVIOUSLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO COMFORTABLE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED RIDGE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE FLOW CERTAINLY AT 700MB AND AT TIMES AT 850MB WILL BE FROM THE WEST...WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IF REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WITH 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AREA APPEARS TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. REGARDING POPS...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS UNTIL THE FRONT LATE THUS ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART TRENDING UP LATE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE BEACHES AND IS HEADING OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTH AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SURGE LINE WORKS ITS WAY OFF THE COAST. UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS...BUT MAY INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FT NEARSHORE AND 3 FT OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE IN A COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND A TOUCH OF SHORTER PERIOD LOCAL WIND WAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A VERY MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND TEN KNOTS. THIS DUE TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS DEFINED FLOW WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE ESSENTIALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT THE LANDBREEZE WILL DICTATE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EARLY SATURDAY QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS CERTAINLY REFLECTIVE OF THIS BENIGN PATTERN WITH 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS MOST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN LOW WITH A FEW MORE THREE FOOTERS LATER SUNDAY BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL 1-3 WILL CONTINUE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF 700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON 12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL PRODUCTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 05-06 UTC TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR ITERATION SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE AREAL SPREAD/MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION AND FOLLOWED THAT MODEL FOR MAIN PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE REGARDING THIS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO REACH THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AS OF 230 UTC...WHICH GIVEN LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 04-06 UTC AHEAD OF MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 23 THROUGH 01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE CLOSE TO THIS TIMELINE...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THIS CONVECTION PROPAGATING INTO MORE STABLE AIR INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. REGARDING FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST AREAS. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. BUT DO EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. WITH OUR RECENT RAINS AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TRIES TO ENCROACH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TONIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEST...KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW ANY CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER. DID NOT MENTION THUNDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE TRACK OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FLATTENS AND LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GLOBAL MODELS PAINT MODERATE VALLEYS OF CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN...THERE DOES AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS TO CONTINUE AT KJMS UNTIL BEFORE/AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KMOT. SHOWERS AND LOWER VFR EXPECTED TO APPROACH KDIK AROUND 15Z AND BECOME MORE DEFINITE BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z AT KDIK AND KISN. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
915 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 .DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ADJUSTING DOWN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS MOST OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL IDEA MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD IN. HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD STILL TRIGGER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER US WITH NEXT TO ZERO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE UMPQUA BASING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS, THEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 21 AND 3Z IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. -PETRUCELLI && .MARINE...MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT, THURSDAY, 3 JUNE 2015...NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD. SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AREAS OF GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL TRENDING NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND PERSISTS. ISOLATED GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AREAS OF GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE FORECAST ON WEDENSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS VARYING ON WHETHER NORTH WINDS MAY WEAKEN OR REMAIN STRONG DURING THAT PERIOD. /CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOWS UP VERY CLEARLY ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW BROUGHT SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVED 0.20" TO 0.60" ACCORDING TO RAIN GAGE REPORTS FROM MESOWEST. THIS MORNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED SUCH THAT IT IS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE JET STREAM SUPPORT HAS BEEN YIELDING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN WESTERN MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES THAT HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE THIS MORNING AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SAME AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS PROVIDE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WEST SIDE RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE, THOUGH EXPECT IT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS IN SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES REACH -2C TO -4C. BY 03Z MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO YIELD ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TO SQUASH MOST, IF NOT ALL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING PRODUCING CELLS. THIS SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE PREVALENT ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO BRING GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW AND A RESULTANT HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEDFORD NEARING 100F AND THE SOMES AND SAWYERS BARS AREAS LIKELY SURPASSING 100F. DETAILS RELATED TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CHANGE EACH DAY, BUT THE GENERAL SUMMARY IS THAT SURGES IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ENOUGH TO BRING A NORTHWARD SURGE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. AS IS USUALLY TRUE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE SPRING, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTION OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN DOES THE GFS40. BTL && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022-618. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370. $$ MAP/MAP/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
847 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... CLOUDS COVER 98PCT OF THE AREA. BUT SMALL HOLES IN THE NRN HALF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIGHT RAIN SLIDING NORTHWARD...BUT PRECIP NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH AS THESE MOVE PAST THE SENSORS. WILL INCH POPS DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST MESO MDLS PROTRAY A MAINLY DRY TIME. LAKE BREEZE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL-CONFINED TO WARREN COUNTY. LIGHT BUT DEVELOPING GRADIENT WIND FROM THE S SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO FAR INLAND. PREV... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW. THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO 1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING INTO S PA. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
723 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW. THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO 1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING INTO S PA. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW. THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS BAD AS FCST. A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE BEFORE 09Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/ CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING. ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER. CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW. THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/ CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING. ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER. CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 H. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW NEBRASKA AS OF 02Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 06Z. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS REALLY IMPACTS WHERE CONVECTION WILL FOCUS TONIGHT...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THIS ANOMALY. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH RESULTS IN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND REACHING I29 AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AS MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BUT IF STORMS ORGANIZE...A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AT OR EVEN ABOVE AN INCH. STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO SW MN AND FAR NW IA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT LOOKS LIKE A 3 TO 6 H BREAK BEFORE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND RAISES CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WETTING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF WET GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL AS STORMS EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH MESO HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN EAST/WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-80. AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT A MINIMUM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IF NOT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY 12- 18 HOURS LATER. WITH THIS WAVE....THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE...AND WITH TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND INCREASING SPEED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED SPEED...CERTAINLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GREAT SPEED SHEAR. WITH STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...GREAT VALUES OF HELICITY...VGP AND BULK SHEAR. 01KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 -30 KNOT RANGE...WITH 30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WITH THIS GOOD SETUP THOUGH...AM CONCERNED IT WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL...SO STILL APPEARS THERE IS GOOD HAIL POTENTIAL IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT CLEARING POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS AND POPS WILL BE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EVENING BUT SOME THREAT IS THERE... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A QLCS AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SHOWER/STORM THREAT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE EVENING STARTS WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE...AND THE DECREASE WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO COME IN ON A NORTHWEST BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. THE REGIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY...BECOMING SLOWLY WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO MIDSUMMER NORMALS...THAT IS...HOLDING SHORT OF 90 DEGREE HIGHS STILL. A PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER FLOW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AS IS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...IF ANY...FOR THE WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION AND CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ALSO WEST OF KFSD. THESE SHOWERS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT AND ARE DRIVEN BY DAY TIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND...AS A RESULT...VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF HITTING ANY AIRPORT. OF GREATER CONCERN IS EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY OF UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AND HAVE ADDED THIS CHANCE INTO TAFS FOR AROUND 1200 UTC. WITH THE LOWER PROBABILITY AT KSUX...HAVE NOT INCLUDED STORMS IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THEN EXPECT A BREAK IN CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE STORMS DEVELOP. FOR KHON AND KFSD...THIS SHOULD BE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TAF. AT KSUX...THIS MAY BE AFTER 00Z SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. AND WITH MORNING CONVECTION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KFSD AND KHON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT KSUX...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEATING MAY ERODE LOWEST CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. AS ALWAYS...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE 20 TO 40 MINUTES OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF LOCATION. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SCHUMACHER SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90 AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES. LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29... POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HAVE TIMED BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING...BUT IN BAND OF SHOWERS CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE FURTHER EAST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER MENTION AT KSUX AS END OF THE LINE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE METRO. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SCHUMACHER SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW OVER CA. ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...BUT THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY. KEPT WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND INTO NORTHEAST WY AS WEAK ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE PROGGED FOR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE. AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...26 SHORT TERM...POJORLIE LONG TERM...POJORLIE AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
625 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE. AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...POJORLIE SHORT TERM...POJORLIE LONG TERM...POJORLIE AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
530 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE. AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...POJORLIE LONG TERM...POJORLIE AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE... THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO 90 OR NOT. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. KRM && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS LIGHT WINDS AND VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT MVFR/PATCHY IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT ALL BUT MEM. AS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLIC DISCUSSION ABOVE...IT APPEARS THE TSRA COMPLEX OVER MO WON/T LIKELY MAKE INTO THE JBR AREA BY 22Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED MUCH IN THE AREA...THEREFORE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TS AND EVEN VCTS. THE BIGGEST HEADLINE DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOG CLOSER TO DAYLIGHT TOMORROW. CSV SHOULD DROP TO MVFR VIS AND EVEN SOME TEMPO IFR. DROPPED CKV DOWN TO MVFR AND LEFT BNA VFR. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. REAGAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE... FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK. REAGAN .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. TVT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO 90 OR NOT. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. KRM .AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK. REAGAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE... 12Z TAFS. AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CSV WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING...WITH VCNTY STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY EVENING EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEGREADE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS. BNA/CKV MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LATE NIGHT FOG BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THE PERIOD. $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO 90 OR NOT. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. KRM AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO 90 OR NOT. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. KRM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR VSBY AT TUP...MKL AND JBR NEAR SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE. JAB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .AVIATION... VFR. POTENTIAL EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR A BOUT OF LOW CIGS AT LBB AND PVW AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR AN EXPLICIT TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ SHORT TERM... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS COMPOSED OF UA LOW DISTURBANCES IMPINGING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS...WHILST UA RIDGING CONTINUED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RATHER SLOW ENEWRD TRANSLATING UA LOW NOTED ACROSS SRN CALI IN PARTICULAR HAS AIDED IN STREAMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS /INCLUDING HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE ANDRES/ ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LOW SYSTEM NW OF THE REGION HAS PROMOTED MODEST S-SE SFC BREEZES /10-20 MPH SUSTAINED/ AND THUS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS SUCH DESPITE AN UA RIDGE OVERHEAD /AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND/...TEMPS HAVE ONLY BEEN CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST CNTRL NM LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A MEAN FLOW WIND OF 15-20 KTS DIRECTED OUT OF THE S-SW...THESE STORMS MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO REACH THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND THE HRRR DO HINT AT A FEW STRAY STORMS THAT COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. IF SO...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO AOA 5-10 MPH. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. TOMORROW...THE UA LOW ACROSS SRN CALI WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO SRN NV HENCE MAKING VERY LITTLE HEADWAY...WHILST THE UA RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS NEARING THE WRN/NWRN ZONES BY LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EARLY EVENING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM. 29 LONG TERM... PREVIOUS TRENDS STILL APPEAR MOSTLY ON TRACK REQUIRING FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND UPPER RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW MORE PRESSURE FROM MOIST FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. LOW CHANCE THUNDER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND EDGED AGAINST NORTHWEST CORNER STILL VALID. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFUSED WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HELP MAXIMIZE THUNDER OPPORTUNITY BY TUESDAY. AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE SO PERHAPS WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FAVORING OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER THIS WAVE CLEARS TO THE EAST UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ROGUE STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT WE ARE HOLDING TO A DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW. THEN...A MORE BULLISH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALSO PERHAPS BECOMING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFUSED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MORE STOUT COLD FRONT ALSO MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY EARLY SATURDAY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS SCENARIO. SO AS ALREADY STATED...NOT MANY CHANGES. RMCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .AVIATION... VFR IS ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING INTO MVFR ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 17Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPDATE...12Z AVIATION BELOW. AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF SAT-DRT LINE. SOME PATCHES MAY WORK TOWARDS THE AUS TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AROUND 15Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST...AND AROUND 17Z OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCT CU FIELD THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT AUS/SAT AND TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THU AFTERNOON AT DRT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1050 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Overall a decreasing threat of showers is expected into Thursday...becoming confined to mainly the northern mountains. Much warmer weather is expected Friday into the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region. Saturday, Sunday and Monday will feel like summer, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Rain chances have been increased across the northern mountains and specifically between the Pasayten Wilderness and Colville Area. Satellite reveals the remnants of a trowal airstream continuing to stream across southern BC and into Central WA. While radar does not look like much...precipitation rates to 0.11" per hour have been observed with this activity. Any convection this evening has been rather shallow and not very impressive via radar but was capable of a quick 0.10 give or take. One shower, with similar characteristics, tracked through the Carlton Burn Complex just northwest of Malott briefly flooding Chiliwist Road near Chiliwist Creek. With dewpoints in these areas still in the lower 50s, even the shallow convection is putting down brief tropical-like downpours. It is a good thing that convection is shallow or we could be seeing a lot more flood issues. Satellite reveals a small vort max taking shape over Grant County at this hour. HRRR suggest some shower activity is possible with this feature but should be ongoing as of 04z. There are definitely clouds due to the lift from this feature but little to no echoes on radar thus far except a small shower south of Creston. Perhaps a few more showers will spring to life but confidence is low given the lack of current activity. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A filling trof of low pressure remains over the region for one more day. The main pcpn threat will be over the northern mountains however several small scale swirls evident on radar could deliver a few weak showers through Thur morning. Otherwise...strato-cumulus developing with heating on Thur will give way to decr clouds and dry conditions Thur PM. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 50 74 54 80 58 86 / 20 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 73 51 79 55 86 / 20 10 10 10 10 0 Pullman 42 71 47 78 52 84 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Lewiston 52 78 54 83 59 90 / 10 10 0 10 10 0 Colville 53 76 50 82 53 88 / 60 30 20 10 0 0 Sandpoint 44 73 48 79 52 85 / 30 20 10 10 10 0 Kellogg 43 73 47 78 50 84 / 30 10 0 10 10 10 Moses Lake 51 79 54 87 59 94 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 56 80 60 86 65 93 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 54 78 52 84 56 91 / 90 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE...FEW CIRRUS PASSING ACROSS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN WI OVERNIGHT. MORE CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER SRN LK MI AND AFFECTING SOUTHEAST WI LATER TNGT. SEE BELOW AVIATION DISCUSSION WRT STRATUS. LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREAS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SOME CONCERN ABOUT A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MOVING ASHORE FROM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICON IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SMALL AREAS OF ST DEVELOPING WEST OF KBEH OVER FAR SRN LK MI. ST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH INVERTED TROF OVER SW LOWER MI. LATEST HRRR BRINGS IN LOWER CIGS INTO SE WI LATER TNGT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WL PROBABLY GO WITH SCT WORDING INTO THE MRNG...UNLESS ST EXPANDS RAPIDLY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. && .MARINE...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. FEW VESSELS IN MILWAUKEE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 17KTS AT 02Z. ALSO SHEBOYGAN COAST GUARD REPORTED 4 FT WAVES ABOUT 1 MILE FROM SHORE AROUND 01Z...WHERE WINDS HAD NOT BEEN AS STRONG LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. && .BEACHES...ONSHORE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY...IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. SWIM RISK WILL BE LOW FOR THOSE WHO VENTURE BRIEFLY INTO THE COLD LAKE MI WATERS. HYPOTHERMIA COULD STILL OCCUR IN 30-60 MINUTES IN WATER TEMPERATURES THIS COLD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE EXPECTED QUIET WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY ANTICYCLONIC. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOTED ACRS CNTRL WI AND ALSO A DRIER SURGE COMING DOWN THE LAKE SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S FOR WESTERN 2/3RDS OR SO OF THE CWA. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LLVL RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES ZONAL AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 85 KNOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THE WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. AT 500 MB THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES CHAOTIC DUE TO THE MODEL CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A SUNDAY MORNING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE 700 MB SPEED MAX PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 925 MB LAYER RELATIVELY COOLER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION. 925 MB LAYERS WARM AGAIN DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. ON THE SLOWER GFS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS DOES INCREASE THE ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 2000 JOULES/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PRODUCES GREATER POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAN THE NAM. THE GFS NSHARP DOES SHOW A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR WITH MORE OF A CURVED HODOGRAPH. THERE DOES SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL OF LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE MID LEVELS DRY TOO MUCH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH MUCH LESS CAPE. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE 250 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS WEAK TO MODERATE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...BUT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY NORTH TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. THEN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASES THURSDAY ON THE FASTER GFS WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER...SLOWER AND MORE BROAD TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE GFS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT FROM IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LLVL RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MARINE... BORDERLINE GUSTS COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE. BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ..WILL CONTINUE THE PRIOR SHIFT IDEA OF NOT ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646. && $$ UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE TOPPING THE RIDGE INCLUDE: ONE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND TWO OTHERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THESE LATTER SHORTWAVES WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING...AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET... CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THESE WERE ALSO ON A WARM FRONT SET UP NEAR I-70. CLOSER TO HOME...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT SAME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS DECK IS FINALLY MIXING OUT. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C PER 12Z RAOBS COMBINED WITH THE SUN HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED. THE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT UP INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFY. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE IMPACT TO OUR AREA FROM THIS UPPER FLOW CHANGE IS TO PUT US IN MORE NORTHWEST FLOW...FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND THE BUILD IN OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THUS A DRY FORECAST WOULD SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE TWO CONCERNS. THE FIRST IS THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT... LIKELY INITIATING CONVECTION ON ITS NOSE WITH AID FROM THE NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS LOOKS LIKELY...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SAY THE MCS WOULD TRAVEL INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE KANSAS CITY AREA...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FROM SOME MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH WANT TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS NORTH OF THE MCS. THESE APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS PUSHING EAST. HAVE HELD ONTO 15-25 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH ANOTHER MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION...THE 04.12Z HIRES-ARW...KEEPS THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE. CLOUDS BLOWING OFF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP OUR LOW TEMPERATURES UP...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. 850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL ABOUT 2C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WITH MORE SUN ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEARING OUT FRIDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN WI SHOULD ALLOW THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. 50S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE...CERTAINLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND 5KM DOWNSCALED NAM ALREADY WANT TO SPREAD CONVECTION INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ITS WORTH NOTING...THOUGH...THAT A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES THERE. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS THE FORECAST 60-70 CHANCES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE STORMS TO SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN WI. MEANWHILE...AN MCS COULD EASILY FORM IN WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE 04.12Z ECMWF AND ITS PAST RUNS. CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD SUPPORT THE MCS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST IA...THUS THE SPLIT. SOMETHING TO WATCH. A DEEP TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BEING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE 04.12Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER TROUGH...HAVE SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN WI. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO 12-14C. THESE ARE STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER RESUMES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AT LEAST 14-18C... BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN FACT...IF THE 04.12Z EC PANS OUT WITH 850MB TEMPS TRYING TO REACH 18-20C LATE IN THE DAY...SOME PLACES COULD PUSH THE UPPER 80S...MAKING IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA...AND ITS COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM AND REFLECTED AS SUCH IN THE FORECAST. THE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS NEW TROUGHING MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH 7 PLUS DAYS OUT...LATE NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WERE SLOWLY MIXING/ ERODING THE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT BY 20Z. CLOUDS THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THRU TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FAVOR SOME BR ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. ADDED SOME 5SM BR TO KLSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING BEING MORE SHELTERED IN THE MS VALLEY...WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF 5SM BR AT KRST WITH A BIT MORE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS. CONVECTION THE NEXT 24HRS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MORE HUMID WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT WITH A STRONGER BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER AND ALMOST BLOCKY SOUTHERN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...THEN SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE BRANCHES WL OCCUR. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GENERAL WNWLY UPR FLOW ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS...FM A BROAD RIDGE OUT WEST TO A TROF OVER THE ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS DURING THAT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS GENERATING SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER NW...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE GROWING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOME OF THESE BREAKS TO MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUD TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. TONIGHT...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE EVENING...TAKING ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH IT. THINK BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. THE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING...SO TOOK OUT OF THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MUGGY UNTIL THE WINDS KICK UP. LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND DRY AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BRISK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH AROUND 70 NORTH AND EAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. KEPT SKYCON LOW FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLDS ROTG ARND THE SWRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THEN BECOMES DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY PCPN OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHRTWV CROSSES THE RGN. THE SYSTEM WL LIKLEY DRAW IN AT LEAST SOME ENERGY FM THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM...AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A CYCLONE ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATE SAT NGT/SUN MORNING AS LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED ACRS THE AREA. ONCE THAT SHIFTS E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. BUT THAT WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW MUCH DEBRIS CLDS LINGER FM THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. WITH A LOT OF UNKNOWNS...JUST OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN AS SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNWLY UPR FLOW CROSS THE RGN. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THEN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .UPDATE... SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 80. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED OR BROKEN CUMULOUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IT AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ SHORT TERM... MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY. 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S INLAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS... TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN 850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY. 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S INLAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS... TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN 850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. .MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN. THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I- 70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF. NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING. IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16 SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES. LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO. TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 WITH SHOWERS HAVING MOVED EAST OF KRST/KLSE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS. LARGE MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND CEILING HEIGHT...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OVER TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE 04.09 TO 04.10Z PERIOD. LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
959 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDS AND RAISE POPS SATURDAY. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND LOCALLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, WE RAISED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NV. WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD, THE STRENGTH OF STORMS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW QUICK CONVECTION FIRES. IF WE CAN GET 4-5 HOURS OF HEATING, THEN STORMS WOULD BE STRONGER. HOHMANN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ UPDATE... OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A QUICK LOOK AT SATURDAY SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS HAD BEEN UNDERPLAYING THIS POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z NAM SHOWED IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS AND A FEW REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CONSIDER ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOHMANN SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED 1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA. TOLBY LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST CONVECTION. FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MJD AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA. FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS. WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY. PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY... PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. .MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCOS TOWARDS MORNING...HOWEVER PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SO DO NOT HAVE THIS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KALS MAY SEE SOME SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT IN THE MORNING...THEN ALL THREE TAF SITES STAND A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THUNDERSTORMS ROLL OFF TO THE EAST. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM. OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY. BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER EASTERN UT THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...AND A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SW CO FROM NEW MEXICO BY ABOUT 09Z. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EVERY AIRPORT...AND TAF SITES WILL SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED AND HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY. CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS MAY BECOME UNSTABLE. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR/EH LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...CC HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
506 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM NRN NJ TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ACTING ON ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG PER HRRR KEWR SOUNDING. THE BAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NYC METRO...SW CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NW AND INSTABILITY POSSIBLY BECOMING SFC-BASED IN THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS THE WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THIS AREA...LEAVING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEHIND. H8 COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STILL BE TO THE NW...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER H8 DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH ONE LAST WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GUSTY N WIND INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK E-SE COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH 3 FT SE SWELLS AFFECTING THE SHORELINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INVOF NYC AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. SUBSIDENCE...LOWER H8-10 THICKNESSES AND THEN AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER...MOSTLY 70-75...BUT WITH UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z...WEAKENING AS IT MOVE FARTHER EAST. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z WITH WEAK FRONT. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BTWN 11Z AND 14Z. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 13Z TO 15Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE SEA BREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z. LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW GUSTS 20-25KT PM. .TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... N FLOW TODAY MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...INCOMING SWELLS MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OUT EAST FOR A TIME TOWARD EVENING. SCA NOT ISSUED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MEETING CRITERIA...AND HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS WILL COME MON-TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ON ALL WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN AVIATION...NV MARINE...GC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM NRN NJ TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ACTING ON ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG PER HRRR KEWR SOUNDING. THE BAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NYC METRO...SW CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NW AND INSTABILITY POSSIBLY BECOMING SFC-BASED IN THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS THE WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THIS AREA...LEAVING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEHIND. H8 COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STILL BE TO THE NW...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER H8 DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH ONE LAST WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GUSTY N WIND INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK E-SE COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INVOF NYC AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. SUBSIDENCE...LOWER H8-10 THICKNESSES AND THEN AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER...MOSTLY 70-75...BUT WITH UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE SEA BREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z. LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW GUSTS 20-25KT PM. .TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... N FLOW TODAY MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...INCOMING SWELLS MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OUT EAST FOR A TIME TOWARD EVENING. SCA NOT ISSUED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MEETING CRITERIA...AND HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS WILL COME MON-TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ON ALL WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN AVIATION...NV MARINE...GC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... * THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU * TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 06.00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. INITIAL NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ABOUT 48 HRS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FORCED RIDGE AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...MAINLY DUE TO IT/S BEING EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN JET. THE SFC REFLECTION...A COLD FRONT...COULD PARALLEL THE FLOW ALOFT AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS ON BOTH THE ECENS/GEFS SIDE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING NOW FOR THE MIDDLE PERIOD...BUT ERR TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND THE FACT THE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MENTIONED ABOVE. DETAILS... SUN NIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING E OF THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SFC DWPTS BEGIN TO RISE. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MON AND TUE... UPPER LVL DEEPENING WAVE WILL BE MOVING E FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET INTO PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS US UP FOR LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES /NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ PROVIDE THE REST OF THE SUPPORT. SO...WITH A WARM FRONTAL APPROACH LATE MON...EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA DEVELOPMENT. FEEL IT WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE DAY THANKS TO THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING TOP-DOWN PRIMARILY...SO THE LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON TUE...YIELDING YET ANOTHER ROUND FOR SHOWERS. THE ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS INSTABILITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING ALONG THE SRN TIER. STILL K-VALUES REACH OVER 30 /LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF MOISTURE/ AND SOME MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF 500J/KG SFC CAPE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A POTENTIAL BREAK WHICH MAY YIELD BETTER SFC HEATING. WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF TS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE...BUT LIMIT THE WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING. WED AND WED NIGHT... RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C. THU INTO THE WEEKEND... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE..AND WHILE THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...IT/S LIKELY SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THU OR FRI WILL YIELD -SHRA INITIALLY...BUT THEN IT MAY STALL IS IT PARALLELS THE MEAN JET DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS IS ALONG THE RIM OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE...SO WARM TEMPS ARE LIKELY...BUT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVE COULD DEVELOP PERIODS OF WET/UNSTABLE WX AT TIMES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EXACT FRONT PLACEMENT IS RESOLVED...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW TIMING OR HOW MUCH RAIN WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING IFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS AS THE FRONT CAME ACROSS NEW YORK SHOWED MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CLEARING AND DRIER WEATHER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON OR TREND THAT WAY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT NEAR S COASTAL TERMINALS EACH NIGHT A SERIES OF FRONTS EACH DAY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR WILL DOMINATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S. WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE 5-6FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUE...BUT IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME FOR THE SEAS TO FULLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOG/RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...WTB/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... * THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU * TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT FOR A COMPROMISE AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS TO BE USED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS FAVORED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS SO WILL FOCUS ON THE ECMWF WHERE DIFFERENCES ARISE. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED SO NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT THE THUNDER CHANCES. WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING QUIET...SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING IFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS AS THE FRONT CAME ACROSS NEW YORK SHOWED MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CLEARING AND DRIER WEATHER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON OR TREND THAT WAY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEDNESDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER RETURNS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AGAIN. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...WTB/RLG MARINE...WTB/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY THEN OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER THROUGH THIS MORNING. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH RH VALUES THOUGH WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. A GUSTY NLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LATE DAY E/SE SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. MET MOS IS WARMER ON SAT AS THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE SEABREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z. LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW GUSTS 20-25KT PM. .TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GIVES TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ISSUANCE OF SCA ON SAT. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING N FLOW. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD MONDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...NV MARINE...GC/DW HYDROLOGY...GC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
427 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through 9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions through the day. As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However, expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the case though based on recent model performance and have maintained thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area on the southern flank. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA for the last several days eastward across the area, with the associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning, being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg) with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the area. Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains, helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary, ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away point for this system is that it will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 VFR conditions expected through the majority of the taf period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning. Confidence on the coverage is low therefore went with vicinity for now. There might be brief periods of MVFR/IFR if storms track over the airport. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS GENERALLY LED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SINCE A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE NEAR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIMINISHED LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA NEAR CRW AND IN NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE WV COALFIELDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES THERE ATTM. OUTSIDE OF THIS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SMALL AND FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IT BECOMING DENSE WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS WORKING OVERHEAD AND THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME MIXING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF IN CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY RAIN SHOWERS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED. PATCHY FOG IS STILL ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL BE JUST AS UNPREDICTABLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 RAN THE ESTF DATA LOAD AND BLEND TOO TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS. THE FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD THUS FAR THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR DATA TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP IN OUR AREA OR MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IF NO SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN AND PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT...MAY UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ALTOGETHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 VISIBLE SAT SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OF CU RIDING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CU FIELD AND HAVE GENERALLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER TRACKING SLOWLY SE. THEREFORE DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE EVENING...AND THEREFORE SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND WEAKEN. THE BETTER LIFT AND ENERGY WILL BE SPLIT WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND WAVE TO THE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THIS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS EVENT. OVERNIGHT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT DECENT INVERSION SO DID OPT TO LEAN TOWARD SOME MAINLY VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO GET SOME SHOWERS WOULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. SATURDAY EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HINTS AT BETTER CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE BRIEF NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW MORE SPOTS STAYING CLOSE TO 80 SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG UNDER INVERSION. EXPECTING LOWS TO GENERALLY DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HANG UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR OVERHEAD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY APPEARS LIKE A NICE DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND WIND FIELDS SUPPORT A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING. THE FRONT ITSELF ONLY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING A THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CUTS OFF AND SETTLES IN TO OUR WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK NORTH SO WAS NOT ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG FORMATION BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS TO MVFR OR IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT SME AND GUIDANCE TAKING VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS...CONTINUED TO FORECAST VIS BELOW SME MINS FROM 10Z TO 12Z. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...ANY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT COULD SEE VIS OR CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
341 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 ...Feeling More Summer Like and Humid This Weekend... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning. Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper 80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No precip is expected during the day on Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or isolated severe storm. The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up. This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the middle of the week especially across the southern half of the Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week with another chance of widespread showers and storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 Convection has shifted south of the area late this evening and not expecting additional convection through the forecast period as ridge builds more into the region. Light surface winds and very moist boundary layer will likely lead to some fog overnight. Have dropped down into MVFR conditions with TAFS overnight and threw in a tempo group with some LIFR ceilings at SGF for a few hours towards morning. Should generally see quickly improving conditions on Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm clusters are a possibility through mid evening. With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front" is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be to the north. Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall chances will be fairly low. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday. The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks fairly quiet. On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant moisture progged to be in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 Convection has shifted south of the area late this evening and not expecting additional convection through the forecast period as ridge builds more into the region. Light surface winds and very moist boundary layer will likely lead to some fog overnight. Have dropped down into MVFR conditions with TAFS overnight and threw in a tempo group with some LIFR ceilings at SGF for a few hours towards morning. Should generally see quickly improving conditions on Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN) PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS. TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY 70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. TIMING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA YIELDS AROUND 09-12Z AT KLNK AND SHORTLY AFTER THAT AT KOMA/KOFK. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION. THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MRNG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS POST RA BEFORE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. SOME THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA SAT EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES...BUT ESPECIALLY AT KOMA/KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY 83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE 5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON TRACK. POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO 1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK... NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET. AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 07 OR 08Z OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS TIME...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED. AFTER MID MORNING...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH FOR STORMS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 02Z TO 06Z SUNDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CROSBY ALREADY REPORTING ALMOST 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KENMARE AND STANLEY TO BOWMAN. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF 700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON 12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL PRODUCTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE. I HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD INTENSIFICATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF PA. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH...EARLY CLOUDS MIX OUT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY A COOL NORTH BREEZE...WITH TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NRN STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SHIFTS OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IN THE MID RANGE TIMEFRAME IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT MID RANGE MODELS BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WARM MOIST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AND SVR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GEFS HAS AMPLE PWATS AND STRONG LLVL FLOW WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. DRIER...MORE STABLE WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. OVERALL...NOT A BAD WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS. MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS. TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE. I HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD INTENSIFICATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF PA. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH...EARLY CLOUDS MIX OUT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY A COOL NORTH BREEZE...WITH TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NRN STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SHIFTS OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IN THE MID RANGE TIMEFRAME IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT MID RANGE MODELS BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WARM MOIST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AND SVR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GEFS HAS AMPLE PWATS AND STRONG LLVL FLOW WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. DRIER...MORE STABLE WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE EVENING HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS IN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED IF ANY CELLS THREATEN SPECIFIC AIRFIELDS. MODELS HINT THAT LOWER MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SHALLOW MOIST LOW LAYER. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH DRYING CONDITIONS...SHOULD RETURN ALL AIRFIELDS TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ONLY POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS. MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS. TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 H. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW NEBRASKA AS OF 02Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 06Z. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS REALLY IMPACTS WHERE CONVECTION WILL FOCUS TONIGHT...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THIS ANOMALY. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH RESULTS IN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND REACHING I29 AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AS MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BUT IF STORMS ORGANIZE...A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AT OR EVEN ABOVE AN INCH. STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO SW MN AND FAR NW IA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT LOOKS LIKE A 3 TO 6 H BREAK BEFORE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND RAISES CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WETTING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF WET GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL AS STORMS EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH MESO HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN EAST/WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-80. AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT A MINIMUM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IF NOT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY 12- 18 HOURS LATER. WITH THIS WAVE....THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE...AND WITH TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND INCREASING SPEED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED SPEED...CERTAINLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GREAT SPEED SHEAR. WITH STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...GREAT VALUES OF HELICITY...VGP AND BULK SHEAR. 01KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 -30 KNOT RANGE...WITH 30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WITH THIS GOOD SETUP THOUGH...AM CONCERNED IT WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL...SO STILL APPEARS THERE IS GOOD HAIL POTENTIAL IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT CLEARING POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS AND POPS WILL BE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EVENING BUT SOME THREAT IS THERE... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A QLCS AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SHOWER/STORM THREAT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE EVENING STARTS WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE...AND THE DECREASE WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO COME IN ON A NORTHWEST BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. THE REGIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY...BECOMING SLOWLY WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO MIDSUMMER NORMALS...THAT IS...HOLDING SHORT OF 90 DEGREE HIGHS STILL. A PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER FLOW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AS IS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...IF ANY...FOR THE WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA KICKING OFF CONVECTION AT 05Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TAF LOCATIONS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT BUT APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND KHON...AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT KFSD...AND MAINLY JUST THROUGH THE EVENING AT KSUX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLE AFFECT ALL AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS WELL IF ON-GOING CONVECTION IN WESTERN NE AND SD HOLDS TOGETHER INTO EASTERN SD. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KFSD AND KHON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT KSUX...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEATING MAY ERODE LOWEST CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. AS ALWAYS...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF LOCATION. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SCHUMACHER SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BY NOON. TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE THE EARLY EVENING MCS HAS FALLEN APART AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR KTUP. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 125 AM EDT SATURDAY... ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND TRENDED THIS MORNING TOWARDS HRRR WITH CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER WORDS...ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MORE CHANGES LATER... AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY... CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NW NC. THIS WITHIN A NARROW AXIS BETWEEN MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND RESIDUAL COOL AIR OUT EAST AIDED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO JUST WEST OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL 1K J/KG CAPE AND 1+ INCH PWAT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS HELPING TO KEEP CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION GOING. WOULD EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY A WHILE AFTER SUNSET BUT GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW/MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING ESPCLY WEST OVERNIGHT. THUS KEPT SIMILAR HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WHILE CONFINING MORE TO AN AXIS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LITTLE OUT IN THE PIEDMONT OR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL AS HAVE SEEN AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING. OTRW PC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. STILL RATHER COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S OVERALL. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY RELINQUISHING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AMPLIFIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO THE NORTH. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL END UP PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EARLY JUNE NORMALS...GENERALLY UPPER 50 TO MID- 60S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRY TO PUSH SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN BUT SILL ONLY 30S POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODEST PWATS WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS BUT NOTHING OF MUCH HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH ONLY GENERAL THUNDER LIKELY PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE..UPPER 70S NW TO MID-80S SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WEDGE WILL BE SHALLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ERODING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY WRING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY... THIS WEEKEND`S WEDGE MAY STILL BE IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... INCREASING MIXING WILL REMOVE ANY LEFT-OVER WEDGE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TRACKING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH IN ZONAL FLOW...THEREFORE IT WILL TAKE A GOOD 24-36 HOURS TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM A CLOSED LOW HOVERS OVER THE MID WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 152 AM EDT SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT BEST GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. OTRW FOG AND STRATUS THE OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING ESPCLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OR WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH MORE OF A STRATUS TO FOG SCENARIO LATE. IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR WITH MVFR ELSW. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES EAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WHERE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO QUICKLY FADE SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS LIKELY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD FADE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NW. THIS LOOKS TO MAKE FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY AS MOST LIFT GETS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND ESPCLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERALL VFR EXPECTED. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS NEAR TERM...JH/KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE 500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE 06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN 80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB- KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST AREA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY... THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR. MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT FORECAST CONTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE...MORE JUNE- LIKE END TO THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 07.06Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT KRST BY 07.03Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7AM UPDATE... ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY...THE BACK END OF THE -SHRA BAND MOVING THROUGH SE MA MARKS THE COLD FRONT BASED ON A MIX OF OBS/MSAS DATA. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DUE TO STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF -SHRA IN WRN MA/CT IS REMNANT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT IT TOO DRIES AS IT INTERACTS WITH THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE. THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EARLY CLOUD MAY LIMIT TEMPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK N-NE FLOW AND REMNANTS OF A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...WITH AREAS INLAND MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT THE 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... * THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU * TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 06.00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. INITIAL NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ABOUT 48 HRS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FORCED RIDGE AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...MAINLY DUE TO IT/S BEING EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN JET. THE SFC REFLECTION...A COLD FRONT...COULD PARALLEL THE FLOW ALOFT AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS ON BOTH THE ECENS/GEFS SIDE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING NOW FOR THE MIDDLE PERIOD...BUT ERR TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND THE FACT THE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MENTIONED ABOVE. DETAILS... SUN NIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING E OF THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SFC DWPTS BEGIN TO RISE. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MON AND TUE... UPPER LVL DEEPENING WAVE WILL BE MOVING E FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET INTO PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS US UP FOR LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES /NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ PROVIDE THE REST OF THE SUPPORT. SO...WITH A WARM FRONTAL APPROACH LATE MON...EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA DEVELOPMENT. FEEL IT WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE DAY THANKS TO THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING TOP-DOWN PRIMARILY...SO THE LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON TUE...YIELDING YET ANOTHER ROUND FOR SHOWERS. THE ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS INSTABILITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING ALONG THE SRN TIER. STILL K-VALUES REACH OVER 30 /LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF MOISTURE/ AND SOME MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF 500J/KG SFC CAPE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A POTENTIAL BREAK WHICH MAY YIELD BETTER SFC HEATING. WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF TS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE...BUT LIMIT THE WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING. WED AND WED NIGHT... RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C. THU INTO THE WEEKEND... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE..AND WHILE THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...IT/S LIKELY SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THU OR FRI WILL YIELD -SHRA INITIALLY...BUT THEN IT MAY STALL IS IT PARALLELS THE MEAN JET DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS IS ALONG THE RIM OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE...SO WARM TEMPS ARE LIKELY...BUT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVE COULD DEVELOP PERIODS OF WET/UNSTABLE WX AT TIMES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EXACT FRONT PLACEMENT IS RESOLVED...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW TIMING OR HOW MUCH RAIN WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MIX OF MVFR/IFR ALONG E MA WITH VFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. THE GRADUAL TREND FROM 12Z-15Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACK...WHICH WILL STAY MVFR LONGER. A FEW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DONE EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 14Z. TREND WILL BE TOWARD VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY N-NE...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT LATER IN THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON THE E COAST ESPECIALLY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT NEAR S COASTAL TERMINALS EACH NIGHT A SERIES OF FRONTS EACH DAY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR WILL DOMINATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S. WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE 5-6FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUE...BUT IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME FOR THE SEAS TO FULLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOG/RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...WTB/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.65 INCHES AND 1.52 INCHES AT TAMPA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL 250 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE SW FL COAST WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE FL EAST COAST. MID LVL STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW-NNW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING AT THE SFC WILL VEER TO THE NE-E INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND NCEP 4KM WRF RUN FOR SPC SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE CSTL COUNTIES AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 20-30 PCT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST BREEZE MAINLY WEST OF I-95 SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGHS MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 14Z. OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND 14Z-17Z. ISOLD TSRA JUST WEST OF COASTAL TAF SITES FROM KMLB SOUTHWARDS 15Z-18Z...BECOMING SCT OVER INTERIOR AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE...LIGHT NW-N FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE-E THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT NEARSHORE TO 2-3 FT WELL OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 70 85 73 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 91 71 90 73 / 40 20 30 10 MLB 88 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 88 70 86 74 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 91 73 91 73 / 40 30 40 10 SFB 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 30 10 ORL 90 72 90 74 / 40 20 30 10 FPR 87 69 86 72 / 20 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ VOLKMER/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through 9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions through the day. As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However, expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the case though based on recent model performance and have maintained thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area on the southern flank. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA for the last several days eastward across the area, with the associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning, being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg) with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the area. Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains, helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary, ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away point for this system is that it will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 615 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 An outflow from thunderstorms near/north of TAF sites will cause winds to be initially from the north to northeast...with a gradual turn out of the southeast by late morning. TS will be very close to TOP and FOE so have a VCTS but can not rule out a stray storm developing overhead so will monitor closely. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF with LLWS conditions developing after 05Z as a southwesterly low level jet increases to 45-50 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
710 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning. Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper 80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No precip is expected during the day on Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or isolated severe storm. The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up. This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the middle of the week especially across the southern half of the Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week with another chance of widespread showers and storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 704 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 After some patchy morning fog pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today. A few thunderstorms may develop during the heat of the day but the coverage will be low. Surface winds will be light through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
917 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER NORTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS MT...WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. PV REMAINS DRAPED ALONG A LVM-GDV LINE...AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO POP UP BY LATE MORNING IN AREAS SUCH AS BILLINGS AND MILES CITY. OTHERWISE AS MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE WILL NOT SEE THE HEAVY RAINERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HAVE TWEAKED MORNING POPS AND SKY AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLD TS FROM 15-18Z. HIGHS TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCED VERY HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL LINGERING FLOODING. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LINGERED WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS EXPECTED. STILL SOME GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS IN THE EAST AND EVEN DOWN AROUND FORT SMITH AS OF 230 AM THIS MORNING. MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND WE ALSO HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING ABOUT. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ODD DUCK SHOWERS HERE AND THERE THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WHICH IS CONFIRMED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SO THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HYDRO NOTES...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES GOING UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AT 12Z /6AM/ THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SATURATED AND FLOODED AREAS. BT .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS A DRY MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90F IN PLACES. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015. FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS...SO MAINLY JUST A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS TURN MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN AS TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. BACKING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO TAP BACK INTO SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE ADDITION OF MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THINGS LOOK DRIER AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. FRIEDERS && .AVIATION... MOST OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED...WITH THE SKIES OPENING UP AT KLVM...KBIL...AND KSHR. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION. SINGER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 077 053/080 057/088 060/083 058/077 056/074 053/077 2/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 22/T LVM 075 048/080 051/086 053/084 054/076 052/072 048/077 3/T 21/U 00/U 02/T 35/T 53/T 22/T HDN 078 051/082 053/089 057/086 055/079 055/075 053/079 3/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 22/T MLS 079 054/083 058/089 060/084 058/077 056/074 053/076 2/T 00/U 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 21/B 4BQ 075 053/080 055/085 058/083 057/077 056/073 051/074 3/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 21/B BHK 077 051/082 053/086 057/082 053/074 052/071 048/072 2/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 43/T 21/B SHR 071 048/076 049/084 052/082 053/077 054/070 049/073 5/T 22/T 00/U 01/B 35/T 53/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN) PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS. TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY 70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT KOMA BTWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AT KOMA AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH KOFK AFTER 0700Z. THREAT OF HAIL AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS...BUT PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE AT KOMA AND KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY 83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE 5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON TRACK. POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO 1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK... NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET. AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 RADAR AND THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS AZ WILL CROSS COLO AND SET OFF CONVECTION ACROSS ERN COLO THIS AFTN. THE MODEL SHOWS TSTMS WOULD REACH SWRN NEB AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB AOA 20Z-22Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR 16Z-18Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RICH PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THE STATE FROM THE SW. MODELS ARE FAVORING N AND E AREAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CENTRAL AREAS FOR CONVECTION WITH NW AREAS FIRING FIRST. ACCORDING TO THE TRUSTED HRRR MODEL...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN LARGE DIVERSIONS FROM FLIGHT ROUTES. SOME OF THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS N AND E AREAS...WITH ONLY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO W AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE E. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...NOT THAT DIFFERENT A DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVITY FROM WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY... AGAIN MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ALSO WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH QUARTER OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY DOWNSIZING THE DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND CHANCES ACROSS WEST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A BIT OF WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...EARLY TO MID WEEK...IT BECOMES A STRUGGLE BETWEEN DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM BLANCA TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTH...EAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM LATE THIS MORN AND ESPEC THIS AFTN. MODEST DRY AIR INTRUSION MAY TENTATIVELY BEGIN ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OR SO OF THE FCST AREA...DECREASING COVERAGE A BIT THERE. BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS LOW END SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NEARLY ANY SPOT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE DEGRADED AT LEAST A BIT PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED THERE. DRIER AIR TO GAIN MORE GROUND IN THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SUN WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS AT LEAST WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. AGAIN...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. THE DRIER TREND WILL ALSO ALLOW AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF WARMING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA STILL IS DEPICTED BY MOST FCST MODELS TO EASE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND SOCAL BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD OVER NM. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER OVER NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO ENCOURAGE GREATER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NM. THE NEXT TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH NM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME MOISTURE FROM BLANCA MAY REMAIN... ENOUGH SO THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. JUST HOW MUCH SO FOR NM IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHEARS APART. SOME OF THE RICHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH READINGS FROM 130 TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. THE FOUR CORNERS AREA COULD ACCUMULATE NEARLY A HALF INCH OF FRESH PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERALLY THE CASE ELSEWHERE. THE MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER DUE TO WEAKER DYNAMICS AND LESS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLUME. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGREES MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NE PLAINS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TILT EVEN FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD FOR AREAS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA SHOULD TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ AS IT GETS INGESTED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE NW FA. ELSEWHERE PCPN MORE ISOLATED. THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR LANGDON. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NW AND DECREASING POPS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN REPORTS WITH THE BAND JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AND RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES SO CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS AND QPF. RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH MT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE NAM AND GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BEST WITH THE ECMWF AT LEAST AT THE 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. PRECIP SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN HEAVY OVER WESTERN ND...AND GIVEN THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF PRECIP BULLSEYE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THINK SOME HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT. CURRENT WPC QPF HAS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE FFG IS LOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY ONE SPOT TO INCLUDE A WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE NAM BRINGS SOME CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GFS IS A LOT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY...BUT THE RAP SHOWS SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF WE GET ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP DESTABILIZE...BUT THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING OFF INTO MN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT FOCUS OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARM 850MB TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE SFC LOW...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THINK WE WILL GET SOME SCATTERED PRECIP AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...TEMPS WILL BECOME QUITE TOASTY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL INTO CANADA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK TO BE VERY WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH THE UPPER LIMIT ON TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY ALSO BE INFLUENCED ON FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WITH RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS THOUGH. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SPREADING EAST ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS...ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. && && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND...WITH THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BAND. THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...WITH SOME RECOVERY TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT KEPT MOST SITES WITH VIS ABOVE 6SM BUT WILL WATCH THOSE THAT GET HEAVIER RAIN WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN REPORTS WITH THE BAND JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AND RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES SO CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS AND QPF. RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH MT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE NAM AND GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BEST WITH THE ECMWF AT LEAST AT THE 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. PRECIP SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN HEAVY OVER WESTERN ND...AND GIVEN THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF PRECIP BULLSEYE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THINK SOME HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT. CURRENT WPC QPF HAS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE FFG IS LOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY ONE SPOT TO INCLUDE A WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE NAM BRINGS SOME CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GFS IS A LOT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY...BUT THE RAP SHOWS SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF WE GET ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP DESTABILIZE...BUT THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING OFF INTO MN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT FOCUS OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARM 850MB TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE SFC LOW...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY. WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THINK WE WILL GET SOME SCATTERED PRECIP AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...TEMPS WILL BECOME QUITE TOASTY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL INTO CANADA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK TO BE VERY WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH THE UPPER LIMIT ON TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY ALSO BE INFLUENCED ON FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WITH RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS THOUGH. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SPREADING EAST ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS...ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND...WITH THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BAND. THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...WITH SOME RECOVERY TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT KEPT MOST SITES WITH VIS ABOVE 6SM BUT WILL WATCH THOSE THAT GET HEAVIER RAIN WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS LATE THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL...COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CEASED. CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ISOLATED T`STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TVT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BY NOON. TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BY NOON. TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE 500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE 06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN 80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB- KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST AREA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY... THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR. MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT FORECAST CONTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE...MORE JUNE- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 FOCUS IS CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPO BOUTS OF IFR DURING HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KRST IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND KLSE IN THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL WEAKEN WITH AN INLAND WARMING TREND AND GRADUALLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SLOW COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AT WEEKS END. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SOME BUILDING CUMULUS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA. THE LATEST HRRR DID A GOOD JOB SHOWING THOSE VENTURA COUNTY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT DOES NOT INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY FOR OUR MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEITHER DOES ANY OF THE OTHER HI- RES MODELS. USING MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DOES NOT INDICATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY. SOME WARMING IS OCCURRING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT REPLACING IT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN DEPTH...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF POINT CONCEPTION WHICH WILL HELP CHURN SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH MORE OF THE MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.3 TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES IN OUR AREA. THE END OF THE NAM12 RUN SHOWS SOME 850-300 MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ENTERING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND 50-300 J/KG...AND ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK GREAT...THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE...VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR REGION...IT HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME...BRINGING MORE INTO OUR AREA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE DECLINE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THEN DEVELOPS INTO AN ELONGATED WEST- SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. && .AVIATION... 062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY SCT/BKN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 21Z WITH BASES MOSTLY 3000-3500 FT MSL. AREAS OF BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FT MSL...SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VIS WILL BE BELOW 3 MI IN THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM. MTNS/DESERTS...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 10000 FT MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .BEACHES... 100 PM...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY AT 3 FT/16-18 SECONDS. THIS WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...HARRISON AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM... STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GOOD INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR. IT PUSHED IN FROM IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ELKO COUNTY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM TO 11PM THIS EVENING. WE BUMPED UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECONDARY WAVE. THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORM CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH STORMS HAVING A FAIRLY QUICK STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY FROM THE NNE TO SSW DIRECTION FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF MULTIPLE CELLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 5PM AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES WEST OF THE SIERRA. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES DOWN ON THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. WARMING ALOFT WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION THAT STARTS TO GET GOING. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, SO OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVED TO MEDIUM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. INCREASED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY, BUT COULD END UP EVEN COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER OR BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS SET UP. FOR THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PULLS FARTHER EAST, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NEAR THE SIERRA. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV, DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO BUILD IN, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE BUILDING INTO CA-NV WILL CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT, BUT BY SATURDAY EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BECOME TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. MJD && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21-01Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS THRU THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND THE MAIN TERMINALS AS DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR KMMH WHERE ISOLD CB TOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
109 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS THIS EVENING OF THE VALLEY. POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE IN THE VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED MORE VALLEY AREAS WITH SOME MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROGGED WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW DAYS, ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTORM INTO THE VALLEY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. AS RIDGING RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY WITH 70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. CEO && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY PM ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL MVFR CIGS. A SMALL CHANCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD REACH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
909 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING IN THE VALLEY. MAINLY FROM AROUND OROVILLE SOUTHWARD. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CREST. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO THE 70S AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INDICATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY UNDER THIS WEAK THROUGH. EVEN WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD...AIRMASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH TO BRING IN DAYTIMES HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY SO ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA ONLY WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS WARMING A BIT MORE. MODELS VARY ON DETAILS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF WEAK RIDGING AND ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... VFR TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. LCL COASTAL STRATUS IN THE DELTA THROUGH 17Z. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DELTA. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO 750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN 80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF GCK AND HYS SO HAVE DECIDE NOT TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 93 64 83 / 10 20 50 20 GCK 65 91 63 82 / 20 30 50 20 EHA 65 90 62 82 / 20 30 50 30 LBL 66 93 64 84 / 10 30 50 30 HYS 66 89 62 83 / 20 30 50 10 P28 68 96 67 87 / 0 10 50 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO 750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT 00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE FOCUS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING. TWO STORM SYSTEMS WITH NOTABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING AND ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL COME OUT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. A 60-80 KNOT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE DECENT SIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH WOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS. A LARGE COLD POOL TIED TO THIS WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PUSH IT QUICKLY SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 63 TO 66F LIKELY, ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MODEL. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS OUR REGION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS, THOUGH, REGARDING MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 500-700MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM, WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT- INDUCED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WOULD BE CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA. THE POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODEL DISCREPANCY. EVENTUALLY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET AROUND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT PERSIST VERY LONG, THOUGH, WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DECENT POLAR FRONT MOVING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, BUT THE TIMING IS AN ISSUE (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A DAY+6 FORECAST). NEVERTHELESS, ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF GCK AND HYS SO HAVE DECIDE NOT TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 93 64 83 / 10 20 50 20 GCK 65 91 63 82 / 20 30 50 20 EHA 65 90 62 82 / 20 30 50 30 LBL 66 93 64 84 / 10 30 50 30 HYS 66 89 62 83 / 20 30 50 10 P28 68 96 67 87 / 0 10 50 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...UMSCHEID AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through 9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions through the day. As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However, expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the case though based on recent model performance and have maintained thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area on the southern flank. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA for the last several days eastward across the area, with the associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning, being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg) with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kt. These conditions combined with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the area. Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains, helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary, ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away point for this system is that it will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 There remains little if any large scale forcing for convection with the mid level ridge axis overhead. Will need to watch the outflow boundary around KMHK for an isolated storm or two as peek heating and localized convergence possibly get a storm to go. Otherwise anticipate any organized convection to remain north overnight with the low level jet nosing into eastern NEB and western IA. Models continue to prog the low level jet strength around 40KT. Therefore have maintained a mention of LLWS in the forecast. Not sure the nocturnal inversion will be terribly strong as MOS guidance keeps surface winds around 10KT, but the chance for LLWS is there. Think VFR conditions should prevail. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning. Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper 80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No precip is expected during the day on Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or isolated severe storm. The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up. This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the middle of the week especially across the southern half of the Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week with another chance of widespread showers and storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. The remains of a weak front will help produce some isolated showers/thunderstorms early in the taf period but expected coverage doesn`t warrant much attention at the fcst sites at this point. A cold front extending from IA into central KS by late in the taf period will increase sw winds over the area. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
114 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MCS FROM THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN) PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS. TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY 70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 AT 18Z LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSOURI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO THE ROUGH LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF FORECAST AREA EXPECT VFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION INITIATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE BROUGHT THUNDER INTO ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IF STORMS FIRE EARLIER. AFTER 12Z FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY 83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE 5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON TRACK. POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO 1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK... NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET. AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW DUE TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST MADE AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...BKN MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM KOGA NORTHWARD TO NEAR KVTN AND KONL. CIGS WILL RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TS ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ UPDATE... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS LATE THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL...COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CEASED. CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ISOLATED T`STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BY NOON. TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS MVFR DECK IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AR SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. HAVE LEFT THE 18Z TAFS FREE OF VCTS/TS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MONITOR GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY FOR ANY EARLY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE 500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE 06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN 80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB- KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST AREA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY... THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR. MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT FORECAST CONTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 FOCUS FOR ANY AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERS ON TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT IMPULSES TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ON-GOING CONVECTION. LACK OF TRUE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES BUT COULD SEE WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVE IN BY EVENING WITH STRONGER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSES. KEPT IN WINDOW OF STORM RISK BUT BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
338 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN XXX COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST. NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO 25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LATEST HRRR USED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF CREEK FLOODING IN THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE NORTH OF THE WHITE RIVER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAINS IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT AT SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SVR THREAT STILL LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL THIS AFTN AS THE SFC TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LOW INVOF SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHERN NV WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO CO AND WY. A WAVY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS. CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE SEVERAL HOURS AGO MOVED NORTHEAST INTO SD. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED FROM THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST TREK TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE OVER UT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CO INTO SOUTHERN WY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST THIS MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL/SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHEAST CO WITH 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO. STILL A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000J/KG. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S TO AROUND 80. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS/TSTORMS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HOT TEMPS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY BASED... DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE MORNING AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. RIDGING OVERHEAD LOOKS TO SUPPRESS THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER A FEW MODERATE STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITHIN MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A POSITIVELY ORIENTED TROUGH WITH OVERALL WEAKER ENERGY ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST- NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING CONTINUED TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LATEST HRRR USED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING FELL ACROSS FLOOD-STRICKEN NIOBRARA...AS WELL AS SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...FLOOD WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE...WITH MINOR FLOODING STILL A CONCERN TODAY. ROADS INTO AND OUT OF LUSK REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. THE NIOBRARA RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH WITH STANDING WATER ON HIGHWAY 20 EAST OF LUSK TO VAN TASSEL AND THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. HIGHWAY 270 NORTH OF MANVILLE IS ALSO CLOSED. FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAY`S STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED WEST OF NIOBRARA COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT MITCHELL... ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER LATE THIS WEEK. THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...CRESTING AT 8.2 FEET EARLY MONDAY. SARATOGA`S FORECAST YESTERDAY PREDICTED THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER TO CREST JUST ABOVE THE ACTION STAGE MONDAY. THESE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH MORE RAINFALL AND INCREASED RESERVOIR RELEASES AT GUERNSEY AND GLENDO. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZF SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...MAJ HYDROLOGY...MAJ/TJT