Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE
HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF
ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM
AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO
REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY
AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 64 86 69 86 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 64 89 67 92 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 65 85 67 86 / 10 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 89 71 91 / 10 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 89 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 87 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 66 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 64 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 68 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT / LONG TERM...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
706 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SATURDAY SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS HAD BEEN
UNDERPLAYING THIS POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z NAM SHOWED IT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AND CONSIDER ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM
WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER
CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS
EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED.
YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED
AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED
1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.
MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS
AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL
ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY
SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA.
TOLBY
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE
WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST
CONVECTION.
FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR
AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO
THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MJD
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
647 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS
ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED
CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET
THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY
TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY.
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY...
PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE
NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY
DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
.MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER
MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID
WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA TAF
SITES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS
ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED
CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET
THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY
TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY.
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY...
PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE
NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY
DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
.MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER
MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID
WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA TAF
SITES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU
00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN
EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF
KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM
AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z
OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN
PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO
THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM
SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO
COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT
LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS
INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT
COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL
PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS
AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE.
MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NORTH TO EAST OF
KCOS MAY EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
1930Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU
00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN
EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF
KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM
AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z
OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN
PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO
THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM
SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO
COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT
LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS
INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT
COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL
PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS
AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE.
MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS WL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT MIDMORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND IFR AT KCOS. AFTER
MIDMORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB. THIS
AFTERNOON IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS OR A TSTMS COULD MOVE
INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z LOW STRATUS WL
LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB AND SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON KALS SHOULD HAVE BREEZY S TO SW WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
129 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND TO UPDATE POPS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5
AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL
BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN
SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE
OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z
NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF
ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW
LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS
ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END
OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND
PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN
3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON
IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5
AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL
BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN
SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE
OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z
NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF
ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW
LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS
ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END
OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND
PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN
3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON
IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES THROUGH
BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY THEN OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY THIS
EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NW INTERIOR
ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS THE HUDSON RIVER.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD ALSO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING EXPECTED UNTIL LATE OR SAT MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH
RH VALUES THOUGH WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS.
A GUSTY NLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PASSES TO
THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NE FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
MET MOS IS WARMER ON SAT AS THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING.
USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA
COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC
EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON
SATURDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS MOVEMENT...EXPANSION. AS
SUCH...CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR IN SCT TO
BKN STRATUS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUTSIDE NYC METRO.
ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO
EAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. BY AFTERNOON...SKIES CLEAR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 12-14Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SEA BREEZES...OTHER THAN KGON POSSIBLY LATE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW
GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GIVES TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK.
NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SAT WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM THE
ISSUANCE OF SCA ON SAT. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING N FLOW.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD MONDAY
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVE
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/DS
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT DROP
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CT/WESTERN MA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13
SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES...AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN TACONICS A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS COULD EVEN EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS WELL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
INCREASES YIELDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.
ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 50S...COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT ASSUMING LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-90 NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT. THIS WILL TEND TO
KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER...MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD BRINGING CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AS THE
MOISTENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/PVS ECMWF) FOR THIS PERIOD. HWVR THE NORTHWARD
SPREAD OF MOISTURE IS GREATER BY FRIDAY THAN PVS RUNS HAD IT.
FRIDAY BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RH OVER THE RGN
FROM THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND AN INCRG
SE LLVL FLOW. MEANWHILE TO THE N...A CDFNT ONLY REACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VLY BY 00UTC SAT. AT 500 HPA A TROF MOVING THRU N QB/LAB
SHARPENS FRI...WHILE THE CUTOFF OVER NC EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLC.
THE N TROF IS SUF TO PUSH THE CDFNT THRU THE FCA FRI NT. THIS
FRONTAL TIMING IS SLOWER THAN PVS RUNS...BUT UNTIL FRI EVNG THE
FCA IS SANDWICHED BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR
FRI.
INSPITE OF ALL THE LLVL MOISTURE THE DAY STARTS WITH MUCH OF THAT
SHIFTS EAST IN THE MRNG. THE STRONG JUNE SUN MIXES SOME THE REST
OUT. MOST STAT GUID IS SUG BKN CLOUD COVER AND SOME SUNSHINE FRI.
CFP WILL REACH NW CORNER OF FCA DURING FRI EVNG.
AT THE TIME OF CFP DURING FRI EVNG SB CAPES N & W OF ALB REACH
200-600 J/KG ON THE GFS AND 500-1000 J/KG ON THE USUALLY OVER
JUICED NAM. MEANWHILE DCAPE IN NW FCA REACH 600-800 FRI AFTN.
ALSO 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 15-20 KTS SOUTH AND 20 TO 30 KTS N FRI EVNG.
WHILE THE SVR THREAT IS LOW...SOME SUB SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NW FRI EVNG. FOR NOW WILL FCST SCT -SHRA/TSTMS NW AND ISOLD
TO SCT -SHRA..ISOLD TSTM FURTHER S & E...OVERALL THE BEST CHC N &
W OF ALB FRI AFTN AND EVNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE
MID 70S.
FRI NT THE 500HPA TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS RGN AND DRIVES CDFNT
S. WHILE THE GEM IS FASTER...ALL THE MDLS HAVE CDFNT TO THE CST
BFE DAYBREAK SAT.
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMP IT S THROUGH THE
RGN...BUT THE INSTAB IS LIMITED WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF ALB.
BY SAT MRNG MASSIVE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO GRTLKS AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE RGN. SAT WILL BE SUNNY BUT BRISK N WINDS
AT TIMES USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR INTO FCA. AFTN MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 70S WITH 60S OVER N HIR TRRN.
SAT NT FLAT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR FCA AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
NYS AND NEW ENG. WHILE AN IDEAL RADIATION NIGHT...THE SHORT 9
HOURS OF DARKNESS WILL KEEP IT IN CHECK WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCRG SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 70S..AND FEW NEAR 80 SOUTH VLYS.
SKIES MAY BCM PC AS INCR LLVL MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW ARND HIGH
WILL RESULT IN MORE CU.
SUN NT WMFNT APPROACHES RGN FM SW AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC SHORT WV
MV INTO THE GRTLKS. CLOUDS AND THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTM WILL INCR
OVERNIGHT. THE GEM KEEPS MOST PCP WEST OF RGN...GFS ALLUDES TO
POSSIBLE MCS DUN NT INTO MON MRNG. FOR NOW CHC -SHRA/TSTM WILL
SUFFICE. SUN NT WILL BE A MUCH WARMER MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN OF
LATE WITH MINS ARND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED AS 1Z GFS/CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE FRONT GOES BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ENERGY FROM THE STRONG UPPER
AIR LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA...COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER
70S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY
MORNING...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
DURING THURSDAY. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
GROUND FOG MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-11Z/THU. SOME
LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH KPOU AND KALB AS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-
13Z/THU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST OCCASIONAL HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TOWARD 06Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY KALB.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THU...ALTHOUGH MAY
TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 80 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5
MPH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS NOSING DOWN BEHIND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WHICH
WAS PUSHING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND. THE OVERALL
DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. BUT THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURRING NEAR
THE LAKE-SUMTER COUNTY LINE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION FOR ISOLATED EVENING STORMS THERE AND INTO WESTERN
METRO ORLANDO. THEREAFTER WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS THE
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO PUSH ANY ISOLATED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTO THE COAST.
MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRI-SUN...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC
CLOSED LOW BROADEN/OPEN FRI TRANSITIONING SEAWARD SAT INTO SUN AS
MODEST UPPER RIDGING REPLACES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INVERTED SFC
TROUGHING JUST OFF THE SEABOARD WILL DEVELOP SFC LOW WHICH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE NE MARITIMES TRAILING AND STRETCHING A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...LOCAL BLYR FLOW WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE
DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE LOW FRI THEN
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE SCT RANGE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES INLAND.
MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS IN LOWER 70S.
MON-THU...DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF UPPER PATTERN INDICATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING LOCALLY. MOISTURE
VALUES FORECAST TO STEADILY RISE. SFC PATTERN YIELDS INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW VEERING FROM SE TO S TO SW MON-THU AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL DIAL TO 40-50 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION FOR STORMS ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLD ATLC SHRA
MAY BRUSH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION VC TERM FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
TO GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZE AND GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
FRI-MON...SEAS AOB 3 FT WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT. CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE NORTHWARD FRI-SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 20
MCO 72 90 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
MLB 72 88 71 87 / 10 20 20 20
VRB 71 87 70 88 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 72 91 73 91 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 71 90 70 89 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 73 91 73 90 / 10 30 20 40
FPR 70 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GRIDS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EXTENSIVE
DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH SOME OF THE DRIER AIR EVEN FILTERING
DOWN QUITE LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK...SO THESE SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO AFFECT THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA
BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. DO NOT SEE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING VERY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO SMALL SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOK OKAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT WELL
INLAND TO MAINLY LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER/OKEECHOBEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA...WILL
TWEAK INLAND POPS DOWN AND ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS SLIGHTLY.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WAS INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS...
COMBINED WITH TIDAL INFLUENCES FROM THE RECENT FULL MOON WILL LEAD
TO A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. USUALLY THESE ASTRONOMICAL
CONDITIONS PRODUCE THE GREATEST RISK AT THE BEACHES ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND RECENT DAYTONA BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTS INDICATE THAT RIP CURRENTS STILL HAVE A STRONG SEAWARD PULL.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO INTERIOR SITES
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...NOT MUCH WIND INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAYBE 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. A STEADY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF
THE WATERS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. SEAS 1-3FT. SMALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD
TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS
ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE
MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER
VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. CAE/CUB IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. CLOUDINESS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING TO SCT TO BKN CU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
WHERE SATELLITE SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR
NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY.
EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS WILL
TRY TO WORK BACK TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING A RETURN TO IFR AT
CAE/CUB...AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS. ANY MORNING FOG AND
LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
FRIDAY WITH DIRUNAL HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD
TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS
ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE
MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER
VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDINESS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS. WILL EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING TO LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST ACTIVITY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE SATELLITE
SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY. EXPECT SOME
THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THAT IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY.
JEE/RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
338 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
348 AM CDT...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS
WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE
RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY
TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT
SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH
THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW
GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF
ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
348 AM CDT...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS
WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE
RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY
TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT
SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH
THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW
GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF
ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR
MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS
FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN
S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE
WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A
RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE
TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB
LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE
DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO
JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS
TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP
AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT
FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT.
GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP
SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S
IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID
WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING: HOWEVER, THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE
STORMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. NAM IS THE FASTEST MODEL...BRINGING
STORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS EARLY AS 09Z. MEANWHILE,
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAPID REFRESH IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER,
SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
AT THIS POINT PREFER THE SLOWER RAPID REFRESH. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES, DO NOT WANT TO INCLUDE PREDOMINANT THUNDER AT THE
TAF SITES YET. INSTEAD, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT RAIN
WITH VCTS AT KPIA BY 12Z, THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 16Z. BASED
ON PRELIMINARY FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE MAINTAINED LOW VFR
CEILINGS AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
TO MVFR WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR
MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS
FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN
S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE
WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A
RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE
TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB
LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE
DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO
JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS
TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP
AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT
FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT.
GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP
SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S
IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID
WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. POCKETS OF MVFR CLOUDS NEAR PIA WILL SHIFT EAST AND LIFT
TO VFR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY DESPITE PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A VEIL OF CIRRUS
FROM AN MCS IN MISSOURI WILL COVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB WITH HEATING TODAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. A NOCTURNAL MCS
IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF IL THIS EVE...AND ROLL INTO
WESTERN IL LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS HOLD OUR STORMS FOR PIA
AND SPI UNTIL AFTER 08-09Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS NO STORMS NEAR OUR
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. VCTS WAS STILL INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH OF THE MCS. MVFR VIS AND CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY
STORMS LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START OUT SSE, THEN BECOME SW AND CLIMB TO 8-10KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KT TONIGHT AND REMAIN SW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO GO DRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS HENRY COUNTY ILLINOIS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS FROM THE RAP
MODEL SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE TRYING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF KALO. THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY MOVES
EAST.
00Z UA DATA INDICATES THE NEW NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND HAVING IT GROW UPSCALE AND
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. THE 18Z
UKMET/GFS/WRF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS DID RAP TRENDS OF THE
PAST 4 HOURS. THE INCOMING 00Z WRF RUN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED PRIOR TO REACHING THE
AREA.
A MATURE/DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSTJ/KFNB AT
SUNRISE THURSDAY. BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DICTATE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS/EVOLVES
ON THURSDAY. DATA CURRENTLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT POTENTIALLY WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON TRENDS...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE
UKMET/WRF/GFS AND RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL WATCH TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND WERE MOVING EAST. LACK OF
CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. 3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST FORCING AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
EXIST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE MODELS TOTALLY DRY. I WILL ONLY HAVE 30
POPS DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST MAINLY IN THE PLAINS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.
LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
POOR WITH SOLUTIONS POOR ABILITY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN TRANSLATE
THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERIFICATION
FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF EVOLUTIONS
ARE POORLY HANDLED. PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MODERATE STRENGTH AND MATURING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. THIS WILL IMPACT REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
PM AND EVENING WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. LOCAL PAST EVENTS SUGGEST
AREAS OF .5 TO LOCALLY 1.5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE
UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY PM IF HAVE ENOUGH HEATING. IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION POOR TO VERY WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WITH HI-RES ECMWF AND FORCING FROM UKMET THE MOST ADEQUATE.
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS LARGE AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN SOLUTIONS
WITH A 60/40 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS AND 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING FROM MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE NEAR MIDNIGHT OR LATER WITH POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTH NEAR INFLOW REGION. THIS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MINS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SUGGESTING LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH IN SOUTH FOR
LATER SHIFTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL BUT FAR NORTH.
FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG WITH BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. RELIABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND EVENING. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESS
WILL PRECLUDE RELIABILITY OF ANY SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE OR FAR E SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 DEGREES NE TO SW WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME AREAS MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SUGGESTED TO FALL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN TIMING AN ISSUE AS MENTIONED BEFORE. BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. CLEARING LATE IN NE
SECTIONS SUGGESTED FOR MINS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER.
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME LATE PM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM IN FAR WEST TOWARD
EVENING WITH NEXT APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS SUGGESTED
WITH NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE FOR MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS ISSUE SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH
60 TO 65 DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 77 TO 83 A DECENT STARTING POINT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION TO END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...DRY TO MOSTLY DRY AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/04. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. KBRL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS BUT KCID/KMLI/KDBQ MIGHT SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT
15Z/04 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AFT 18Z/04 AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN IOWA AFT
00Z/05.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
REST OF TONIGHT:
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALONG & NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS
PARKED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN
& RUSSELL COUNTIES TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. WITH SW UPPER-DECK FLOW
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN KS. TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION HAVE KEPT TORNADO #252 IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN
COUNTIES BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFFECTED COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER &
QPF...REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
UNTIL ~5AM WHEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHWEST & WESTERN KS
MAY VENTURE INTO THESE SUBDIVISIONS.
.UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS INSERT TORNADO WATCH
#252 FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.
KRC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
KRC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THRU THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH SCT DECKS
~3,000FT ARE POSSIBLE E OF I-135 TOWARD 12Z. S WINDS WILL INCREASE
MID-LATE THU MRNG WITH SUSTAINED 17KTS/20MPH WITH 22-30KT/25-35MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS & GUSTS LKLY ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS PREVAILING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 10
NEWTON 67 87 67 87 / 20 20 20 10
ELDORADO 69 87 68 88 / 10 10 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 67 87 66 89 / 30 20 40 10
GREAT BEND 67 89 66 89 / 30 10 30 10
SALINA 68 88 68 89 / 40 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 68 88 67 89 / 30 20 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10
IOLA 68 86 68 86 / 20 20 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND
DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT
KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE
SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE
WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EAST COLORADO...SPREADING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL REACH KGLD FIRST AND KMCK AN
HOUR OR TWO LATER. HAIL...WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS IS NOW DEVELOPING AND
MVFR CIGS ARE NOW REPORTED AT KGLD. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO LIFR
BY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED AT KGLD WITH STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIKELY FURTHER WEST. FOG/STRATUS DECK ERODES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1111 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND
DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT
KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE
SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE
WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRATUS REACHING BOTH TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS IS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RAPIDLY ADVANCING WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD PLACE KGLD UNDER THE THREAT
OF SOME FOG. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WHEN A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. THINK THIS AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS SOUTH
OF BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE
SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT
FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN
IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN
BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS
POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START
RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL
CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE
SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING
PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K
J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER
WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT
IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA
THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL
LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT
TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE
GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING
AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS
RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO
EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE
GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS
SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN
THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON WED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE VA AND WV BORDERS. AS A RESULT
WILL NOT FORECAST THUNDER AT ANY TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION
VCTS AT SJS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF ON
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE
SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT
FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN
IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN
BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS
POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START
RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL
CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE
SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING
PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K
J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER
WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT
IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA
THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL
LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT
TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE
GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING
AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS
RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO
EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE
GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS
SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN
THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON WED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FOG HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID 50S TO LOW
60S. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY BURN OFF AND CIGS TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. STILL EXPECTING A
SIMILAR DAY TODAY TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...GENERALLY BORDERING THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
RAIN/THUNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR IN THE
FAR EAST...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT KSJS AND KJKL...AND AS
FAR WEST AS KLOZ. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE AT KSYM AND KSME. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF LATE LAST NIGHT/INTO
THIS MORNING WITH CONCERNS TO THE FOG. WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED
TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXACT IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT TODAY...AND CLOUD COVER/TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
LOCLDS ARE STUCK UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER 00Z CAR
RAOB. TRENDED MIN TEMPS UP JUST A TAD MORE AND ALSO INCREASED CLD
CVR THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR WRN ZONES TWD 09Z.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
930 PM UPDATE...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SEEM TO BE HANGING ON LONGER THEN
EXPECTED...WITH THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 850MB. TRENDED
CLOUD COVER UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT...TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF FROST. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HANGING ON AND DEWPOINTS NOT MOVING MUCH ON THE EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW...FEEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACRS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH LEVELS
AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE
40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES
TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH,
EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER,
THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MID 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL
GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2
FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU MAINLY IN
THE 4-5K FT RANGE. THIS CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WEAK
SURFACE GRADIENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DTW TAF SITE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED SO SHOWER CHANCE WITH PASSAGE WILL
BE LOW. WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY FROM THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE.
SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ALL TAF SITES.
FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY IS
LOW. THE LATER THE PASSAGE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY IT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATE...
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN
AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO.
WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRC
UPDATE.......DRC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN
AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO.
WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS
/BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT
AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS.
FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES
AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DRC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS
/BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT
AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS.
FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES
AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
&&
.MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH JUST A SCT-BKN PATCH OF
LOWER VFR STRATUS TRYING TO EDGE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY H95/H8 FLOW
INCREASES GRADUALLY AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. WILL
MAINTAIN SCT WORDING FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK
NOTABLY THIS EVENING...SO BKN CIGS WILL BE MORE THE EXCEPTION AND
UNLIKELY ANYWHERE NORTH OF KPTK.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS LESS THAN 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN INTO WCNTRL WI PRODUCING LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PER TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ALLIGNED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
H7 RH AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA THAT
FORMED JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE ON
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM
OVER REST OF EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO LK MICHIGAN REGION. TWEAKED
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER
EAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO CLIPPED BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES ON LAND JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF MQT TRIES TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. BASED ON OBSERVED PRESSURE FALLS THIS
EVENING...SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WI...SIMILAR TO WHAT 18Z NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOWED AND
NOT LIKE THE WRAPPED UP AND FARTHER NORTH RAP MODEL. THUS...LIKE
IDEA FM GOING FORECAST THAT GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER SCNTRL CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SFC LOW.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE GREATEST MOSITURE TRANSPORT IS ALLIGNED AT H85-H7.
TSRA CHANCES REST OF THE NIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA SEEM MINIMAL BASED ON
UPSTREAM LIGHTNING TRENDS AND FORECAST DEPARTURE OF STEEPER H7-H5
LAPSE RATES. DOWNPLAYED TSRA OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT DID
NOT GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY DUE TO THE STRONGER/COMPACT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING.
LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THURSDAY MORNING THINKING FOG WILL
BECOME BIGGER ISSUE OVER WEST-NORTHWEST CWA AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE DENSE FOG...BUT JUST
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE
EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE MUCH OF THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW OVER MN HAVE LED TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/WI BORDER AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST
FROM THERE OVER CENTRAL MN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER AND NEAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE SHOWERS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI ARE LIKELY NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS DRY LOW LEVELS ARE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM TRENDS SEEM WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR...WHICH SHOWS
CONVECTION TO THE W-SW SHIFTING NNE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ENTERING FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND 03Z THU...WHICH IS THE GENERAL IDEA
AMONG OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS AS WELL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CWA TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED UNDER AND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP PLACEMENT/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS (NAM/NAM-DNG/GEM-
REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP HIGH-RES WRFS) HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONVECTION...SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP ALONG THE SRN CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE THE NCENTRAL AS
WELL.
NO FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S...WARMEST S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE OVER MT 00Z FRI. NAM SHOWS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN GOES TO THE RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT.
POPS MOVE OUT FOR THU NIGHT AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR EARLY
THU NIGHT...THEN WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT THAT GETS FLATTENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z MON. A
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS OUT TUE INTO WED. HAVE POPS IN FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
WITH AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUE WITH LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER NW WISCONSIN. AS BOTH AREAS OF RAIN ARE
MOVING E TO NE...EXPECT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK AND
ON INTO THURSDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MOVE IN OFF LK SUPERIOR
ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN DIMINISHES. IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN
THE MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS FAVOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOOON WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF IFR CLOUDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR WITH LOWER VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15 KTS. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH
IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL STRETCH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FINALLY...WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND THICKNESS...SO WILL JUST HAVE
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS/ST-CUMULUS CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FIELD BLW
3K. NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION...A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA/SHRA OVER EASTERN SD HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX AND
RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN
WC/CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REDEVELOPING
AFT 3Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY DAY 7... WITH A
STEADY SLOW WARMING TREND OVER TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL... SO DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL MAINLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SO NOT
A PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG ADVERTISED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40KT...
THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THEY/D LIKELY JUST BE A HAIL THREAT. ONCE SATURDAY
NIGHT/S PCPN MOVES OUT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THINGS
LOOK TO BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. PCPN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...
WITH A WEAK FROPA WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PCPN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE.
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DENSE STRATUS AND WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP
THE LOWER CLDS THIS MORNING...AND WITH HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...IT SEEMS THAT IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HR OR TWO BEFORE CIGS
LIFT TO VFR...OR HIGH END MVFR. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT MOST OF
THE LOW CLDS SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR BETWEEN 18-20Z...THEN
LOW END VFR DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS LIFTING TO
LOW END VFR IN EC MN/WC WI...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WC/SW MN
DUE TO MORE HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK AS OF 1215 PM. BY THIS
EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE WIND FLOW BLW 3K...SOME OF THE STRATUS
MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. BEST SCENARIO
IS TO SEE HOW CLDS ERODE THIS AFTN AND SEE HOW A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSRA TRANSLATE ACROSS SE SD...AND INTO SW MN.
KMSP...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. ESPECIALLY DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV
1.7K DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE THIS AFTN...THEN MORE EAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND INCREASING SOME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTN...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS
GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER
TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A
THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE
BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY
STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT.
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD GROUPS COVERS THE TERMINALS FROM IFR TO
MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF LIFR NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BEFORE 00Z WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AND HAVE A VCSH MENTION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECTING SOME BR WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS
GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER
TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A
THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE
BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY
STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT.
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE.
EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD
AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND
HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE.
EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD
AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND
HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10
INL 68 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 20 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 40 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND
THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR
LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER
CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAVE BEEN TRENDS
OF BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV
AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE
FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK ARE THERE ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT
WILL LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER THE REGION NOW...WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW OVER EAU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO THE NW NEAR
BEMIDJI. RAIN IS NOW EAST OF ALL TERMINALS AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MORE PRECIP THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH IS LIFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE SECONDARY
LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FILL IN...RESULTING IN
A BAGGY SFC TROUGH. WITHIN THIS BAGGY TROUGH WE NOW HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE THANKS TO RECENT RAINS AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
GENERATING LOW STRATUS AND BR. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE
HRRR/GFSLAMP WITH THE STRATUS EVENTUALLY FINDING ITS WAY TO ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WRN WI BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. INDICATIONS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RAP IS THAT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE QUITE HESITANT TO LEAVE CENTRAL MN...SO DID SLOW
DOWN IMPROVEMENTS AT AXN/STC. EVENTUALLY...ARRIVAL OF NE SFC WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF ANY MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS.
KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS UNDER 1K FT TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. 500 FT CIG IN TAF IS LIKELY THE LOWER BOUND FOR
CIGS...WITH HEIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FEET LIKELY INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK SFC WINDS...WE MAY BE A BIT EARLY WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR...THOUGH THE SUN BEING ABOUT AS HIGH IN THE
SKY AS IT GETS DOES BODE WELL FOR BREAKING THE LOW STRATUS UP BY
18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area
early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu
fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for
what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the
s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little
fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over
the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg
with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear
look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave
expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some
strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm
clusters are a possibility through mid evening.
With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and
shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall
chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front"
is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure
over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least
focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday
morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an
uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a
southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be
to the north.
Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with
progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates
and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse
type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall
chances will be fairly low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid
south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief
time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try
to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level
capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday.
The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens
out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over
southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near
or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also
indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the
mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances
for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks
fairly quiet.
On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a
shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the
southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant
moisture progged to be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Convection was mostly on the wane across the area. A few storms
were developing on the outflow from the SGF storm and may track
towards the BBG site between 23z and 01z and for this reason have
kept in VCTS for the BBG site through 01z. Elsewhere, generally
expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the evening. Have
thrown in some MVFR conditions overnight for light fog development
at BBG/SGF with a light wind and clearing sky, expecting some fog
development between 09z and 14z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term
model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely
dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The
other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened
considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that
is won`t survive this far south, given increasing
heights/inhibition across the area.
The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the
outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will
currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45
AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the
remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable
whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow
convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just
maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half
or so of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Mid and high level cloud cover will remain in place over the area
for much of the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm chances will generally
remain north and east of the terminals, though thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out 1. later this afternoon at SGF and BBG, though
chances are too low attm for TAF inclusion, and 2. early tomorrow
morning as an expected complex of storms drops south toward the
area. Chances of convection affecting JLN and SGF tomorrow morning
are high enough for a PROB30 group attm, though overall confidence
in timing, track, and strength of convection late tonight and
early tomorrow morning is rather low.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1047 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...Short Term Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term
model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely
dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The
other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened
considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that
is won`t survive this far south, given increasing
heights/inhibition across the area.
The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the
outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will
currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45
AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the
remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable
whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow
convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just
maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half
or so of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog
around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid
morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours.
BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower
ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and
visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some
additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds
will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term
forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of
TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the
next 24 hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...12z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog
around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid
morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours.
BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower
ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and
visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some
additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds
will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term
forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of
TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the
next 24 hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A weak convective complex has formed over SC Nebraska into far NW
Missouri, and has gradually started to slide south with time. Unlike
last night this complex has a little better environment with which
to sustain itself, as MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg ahead
of the complex and effective bulk shear values are approaching 25 to
35 knots. Both parameters are an improvement over what yesterday
morning`s complex had. Also according to SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT
values are approaching 1.8 inches where the storms are located, and
only fall off marginally with southward extent, as a good portion of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri contain 1.6 to 1.7 inches of
precipitable water. This will allow this complex to have very
efficient rain rates, as it eventually slides into the forecast
area. Short range models have been pretty consistent with this
complex eventually sliding south/southeast through western Missouri.
Should this complex slide south as the short-term hi-res models
suggest it could bring another round of morning and early afternoon
thunderstorms to the area, which would exacerbate the already
ongoing flooding problems across the area. Tough to say exactly how
much rain each area will receive, but considering the generally slow
motion of this complex along with a fairly efficient rain-making
ability, it`s conceivable that some areas could see another 1 to
several inches of rain through the morning hours. As a result of
this concern, a flash flood watch continue for the area through 10
am.
This afternoon`s chances for severe convection will depend much on
how this complex moves through the area. If the complex drops south
as the models suggest it`s conceivable that there could be enough
lingering cloud cover to prevent much in the way of
afternoon/evening destabilization. Should the complex take on more
of an easterly component or fizzle out early there could be enough
of a clearing period to get some destabilization. Confluence along a
mesoscale/synoptic boundary which will likely run through northern
Kansas and/or southern Nebraska will be maximized likely to the west
of the forecast area, and this max confluence will be the best focus
for afternoon convection. Across far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri, depending on how the boundary sets up there will not be
quite a good of a chance to get a storm going along the weaker
confluence, but NAM indicates a relatively uncapped environment, so
it may not take much to get a storm going this afternoon. Should a
surface based storm get going this afternoon there will be plenty of
instability, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE as well as
30 to 40 kts of deep shear. This would be ample for supercellular
activity, with all modes of severe weather possible, again, mainly
west of I-29 and north of HWY 36. As the afternoon/evening
convection grows upscale into a complex, another round of heavy rain
is possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
Friday convection again is dependent on how Thursday night evolves,
but for now models want to move the mid level ridge more centered
over the forecast area, which would serve as a bit of a dampener to
mid day convection, however, with some mid level flow over the apex
of the ridge, it`s possible that once again, overnight MCS
development will roll through the area, bringing yet more heavy
rain.
Saturday then sees the boundary likely move north of the forecast
area, which should take the best chances of severe weather with it.
MCS formation from Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms could
conceivably move over the area, but given the likely initiation as
well as the somewhat flattened mid level ridge it`s more likely that
the complex(es) will ride north of at least Interstate 70, if not
north of Missouri all together.
The rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week as
the mid level pattern transitions into more of a eastern trough
scenario with a sagging boundary. Should the boundary sag across the
area the generally zonal flow could result in one or several days of
training cells, so will continue to watch for more days of
potentially heavy rain through the mid range and extended forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex
is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and
in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The
convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS
overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn
hours as the cold pool takes over.
With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as
earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect
convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals
with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing
ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR
visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms,
especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the
afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as
it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish
themselves from the morning convection.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Convection continues moving slowly eastward through southeast
Nebraska and northwest MO with more scattered activity across
northeast MO. The convection across northwest MO will likely
weaken later this morning as it shifts further southeast into our
forecast area as it encounters slightly more stable air and slightly
less low level moisture. Should see at least scattered convection
across northeast and central MO this morning. There may be some
redevelopment this afternoon along left over outflow boundaries from
late night/morning convection across central and eastern MO,
generally west of the Mississippi River. The morning convective
cloud debris should hinder the maximum temperatures today,
especially across northeast and central MO.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
A shortwave overtopping the upper level ridge over the southern
Plains should lead to another MCS which will impact at least
northeast MO late tonight. Convection will spread into the rest of
the forecast area on Friday, particularly across west central and
southwest IL as the shortwave drops southeastward through IL and a
cold front drops southward through the area. Much of the convection
may shift south and southwest of our forecast area Friday night and
Saturday as a surface ridge over the Great Lakes region noses into
our area with slightly more stable and drier air filtering southward
into much of the forecast area. Temperatures may also be a little
cooler Friday night and Saturday, especially across northeast MO and
west central IL. Another shortwave will overtop the upper level
ridge Saturday night into Sunday, but it appears that most of the
convection associated with this feature will remain north of our
forecast area. The threat for convection wlll shift southward into
our area Sunday night and Monday as an upper level trough develops
over the Great Lakes region, breaking down or flattening the upper
level ridge and causing another cold front to sag southward into our
area. The ECMWF model shifts the precipitation south of our
forecast area by Monday night, while the GFS is slower with the
southward progression of the convection keeping it going across at
least the southern half of the forecast area through Tuesday
evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF model generate precipitation across
the southern portion of the forecast area on Wednesday due to an
upper level trough/low moving eastward through the southern Plains.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as
surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC
with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the
CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and
latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of
this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog
threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is
concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought
in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid
shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat
needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF
trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU
overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work
south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have
introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70
corridor towards the end of the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected
throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of
precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat
should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 84 67 84 63 / 30 30 60 40
Quincy 81 67 80 60 / 50 70 70 30
Columbia 84 67 83 64 / 30 40 40 40
Jefferson City 84 67 85 64 / 30 40 40 40
Salem 81 65 82 62 / 10 20 60 40
Farmington 82 63 84 63 / 10 10 40 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE
as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight.
Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight
and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now.
Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog
overnight at SGF/BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Have lowered near term PoPs to reflect current radar trends and a
more northern solution of MCS development into south
central/southeast NE per 01Z HRRR and 00Z NAM. While initial
convection over north central KS was a bit further south than
anticipated the trend has been for new development to take place
towards south central NE with smaller cells popping up towards
southeast NE. This fits with the location of h8 jet per latest VWPs
which intersects the western edge of highest PWs.
So, have pared back PoPs over the southern CWA and focused higher
PoPs over northwest MO/northeast KS. Given the above expectations
believe flash flooding remains a high concern over northwest MO and
northeast KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Very active pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms
possible as early as this afternoon and this evening, potentially
continuing off and on into the weekend. This potential for repeated
rounds of storms will continue to pose a threat for flash flooding
into the weekend.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms have already developed along
an elevated boundary over north central KS, being fed by a low-level
jet nosing into the area. This jet is forecast to weaken and pull
back a bit through the early evening, while storm motion vectors push
these storms into a more stable airmass over far eastern KS and
western MO in the wake of this morning`s MCS. Would therefore expect
this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches the KS/MO state
line with the stronger activity staying to our west for the next
several hours.
A better chance for widespread thunderstorms, possibly
evolving into another organized convective complex, will arrive
overnight when a stronger impulse will eject out of the
Rockies into our region and interact with a re-intensifying low-level
jet nosing into northeast KS. This would conceptually bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to southeast NE and northeast KS
which could roll southeast into western MO through early Thursday.
Unfortunately models are really struggling to resolve convection in
this pattern so confidence is not terribly high on this.
Nevertheless, torrential rains from Wednesday morning combined with
our anomalously wet May has left soils incapable of holding much if
any additional water. In fact 3-hour flash flood guidance is 1.5" or
lower for most areas near and west of I-35 with some spots under an
inch. Additionally, many ingredients are in place for very heavy rain
tonight including strong moisture advection/convergence over
northeast KS and northwest MO, deep moisture and warm cloud depth and
precipitable water values over 1.75" So even though there remains
some uncertainty regarding storm evolution overnight, there`s a real
risk for flash flooding if and where storms do develop. Therefore we
issued a flash flood watch through 10 AM for areas that received the
heaviest rain on Wednesday.
A lot of Thursday`s storm potential depends on the timing and
coverage of any activity that develops late tonight. If precipitation
and clouds clear early enough, there could be another round of
storms during the afternoon, some of which could be strong with
slightly stronger 700- and 500-hPa winds nosing into the area.
Conversely if storms are slow to move into the area in the morning,
southeastern portions of the area could destabilize enough for strong
storms through the early afternoon. At this time the most likely
scenario seems to be similar to today with morning convection keeping
things stable into the early evening. Of course, any storm that does
develop will have to be watched closely for additional heavy
rainfall.
This active MCS pattern looks to continue into Thursday night and
into Friday and Saturday. The orientation of the upper-level ridge
and projected LLJ would favor storms developing over northern KS,
southeast NE and IA during the daytime hours then potentially congealing
into complexes that would navigate southward into our area during the
evening and overnight. The heavy rain potential may be particularly
enhanced on Friday and Saturday when a warm front looks to become
oriented northwest to southeast from western Iowa into the Missouri
Ozarks. This would be parallel to the upper flow and overall storm
motion and could potentially lead to training storm complexes with
very heavy rain. Confidence isn`t terribly high through this period
so decided not to issue the flash flood watch beyond Thursday just
yet, though it eventually may need to be.
By Sunday and Monday the upper ridge to our south which is
responsible for this active pattern will gradually flatten out, and
could bring an end to this parade of storm complexes. However, a
lingering frontal boundary near our area and a very unstable airmass
could still spark storms either day. Enough northerly flow may spread
into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday to finally push this active
pattern to our south, but this could change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex
is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and
in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The
convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS
overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn
hours as the cold pool takes over.
With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as
earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect
convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals
with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing
ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR
visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms,
especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the
afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as
it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish
themselves from the morning convection.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
CWA remains high and dry at 0230z, as we watch convection over
north central KS continue its slow expansion in coverage and
intensity. This area...or an extension of it...should be the
primary precip threat in our CWA during the predawn hours. The
last few runs of the HRRR, as well as a quick peek at the 00z NAM,
suggest that the main convective complex will likely remain west
of our area through 12z, although westerly component of low
level/850mb flow may cause some eastward expansion of weaker
showers and thunderstorms during the predawn hours. Based on the
very latest guidance, have taken the axis of this eastward
expansion of precip through mid MO in the 09-12z time frame with
chance PoPs.
Other than a very minor tweak to PoPs early Thursday to dovetail
tonights thunderstorm chances into going forecast, no real changes
to Thursdays forecast. Obviously, exact PoPs for Thursday will
likely hinge on how overnight convection evolves, so will leave
any fine-tuning of Thursday`s PoPs to mid shift as they monitor
overnight and early morning precip.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Focus remains precip chances thru tonight.
MCV remnants across cntl MO shud continue to dissipate this evening.
The SHRA shud continue to slowly move ewd some this afternoon into
the evening while the more intense area of TSRA continues to sink
SSE. That area shud start building more swd than SE.
Focus then turns TSRA activity overnight. Have generally trended twd
the GFS soln, tho other solns have similar ideas. Expect a complex
across srn NEB/nrn KS to extend into nrn MO/srn IA late tonight into
Thurs morning. Main question will be how far E this complex builds.
Believe that as the upper trof over MN continues to lift newd, the
weak sfc fnt will gradually sag swd. As the LLJ veers tonight, this
fnt shud provide a focus for TSRA. The main question will be how far
S these TSRA develop/propagate.
Pulled PoPs further S compared to the prev forecast and is some
concern these PoPs are still not far enuf S. With little to focus on
and given that many of these features will be impacted by
convection, have kept PoPs in the chance category for now.
Hopefully, timing/location can be fine tuned with future updates.
As for temps tonight, kept warm trends aoa warmest guidance due to
cloud cover and generally sly winds. Only exception is across ern
Ozarks region where low lying areas may decouple allowing more
cooling.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Not many changes from the prev forecast overall.
With upper air pattern becoming more amplified and upper ridge
building into the region, warming trend is expected to continue thru
this weekend. However, with RA chances each day over at least some
portion of the CWA, any storms and outflow bndys will complicate the
temp forecast.
Mdls are in an agreement bringing an upper trof and associated cdfnt
swd into the region on Mon, possibly thru the CWA by Tues. That
said, am not certain this fnt will push as far swd as currently
advertised by mdls. Have therefore kept low PoPs behind the fnt but
did trend cooler for Tues and esp on Wed.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as
surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC
with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the
CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and
latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of
this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog
threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is
concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought
in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid
shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat
needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF
trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU
overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work
south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have
introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70
corridor towards the end of the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected
throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of
precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat
should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 65 85 68 86 / 10 30 30 50
Quincy 64 81 67 82 / 20 50 60 60
Columbia 63 83 67 85 / 30 40 30 50
Jefferson City 64 85 67 87 / 30 30 30 50
Salem 59 82 66 85 / 5 10 20 50
Farmington 60 83 62 86 / 10 10 10 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday.
Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken
this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening.
Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area.
Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.
Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE
as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight.
Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight
and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now.
Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog
overnight at SGF/BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
634 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE OVERHAULED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS/
IS DOING A TERRIBLE JOB HANDLING THE FACT THAT RAIN IS SIMPLY MUCH
LIGHTER AND QUICKER-MOVING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THAT/S BECAUSE THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE DEEP...MOISTURE-ROBBING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN SD. IN SUMMARY...WE LEFT A LIKELY
POP AROUND BAKER FOR A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT DRASTICALLY REDUCED
POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEASTERN MT AND COMPLETELY TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WE ALSO
TOOK OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY...AS OF 09 UTC THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TWO SEPARATE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING A DOWN-
WARD TREND RECENTLY AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING. THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION IN EASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD...AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTH END IS
PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELY
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH 18 UTC TODAY IN RESPECT TO THAT
AND MODEL INSISTENCE IN MOISTURE THERE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUGGEST THE DEEPER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DISRUPTING MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT
AND SO WE BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH SHORTWAVES
WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL...FROM NEAR 60 F IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MT TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE HAVE
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE AGAIN FEEL THAT MOST DIURNALLY-INITIATED
CONVECTION WILL BE HELD RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE AREA WILL ONCE MORE BE BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BY
PEAK HEATING.
TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND A FEW CELLS COULD COME OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 00 AND 06
UTC. THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LESS THAN IT WAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITHOUT ANY DEFINED SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES. THERE IS NONETHELESS A VERY LOW...BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM DURING THE EVENING TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS BASED ON MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR.
FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL MOVE DEEPER INTO THE 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. THE 00 UTC NAM ACTUALLY SUGGESTS MLCAPE COULD BE HIGHER
THAN THAT /OVER 2000 J/KG/ IN PLACES LIKE SHERIDAN AND BROADUS. AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES BY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF A 500-MB LOW
THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
CONTINUE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ON AT LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY NOT BE OVERCOME UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH. BOTH EFFECTIVE AND
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE HELD NEAR 30 KT...BUT WE MAY
STILL HAVE ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE DEMONSTRATED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH AND K-INDEX VALUES OF 35+ IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...AND
SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOW-MOVING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE RESULT COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND WE MAY
EVEN NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH A LATER
FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES.
FINALLY...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCED
QUICK RISES...BUT ONCE LOCAL RUNOFF FINISHED MOST CREEKS DROPPED
JUST AS FAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RESIDUAL PULSE OF WATER
MOVING THROUGH SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS TODAY AND THE GREATER RISK
OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WATCH
IS CERTAINLY STILL WARRANTED. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. DESPITE AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US...OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHUNTS A MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION. AREA MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY
SHERIDAN AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
THEREFORE BROUGHT IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. KEEPING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST COAST
TROUGH. WITH THE DRYING TREND...COMES WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD 80S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AREAS...FROM KBIL TO KLVM. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 051/074 055/076 054/079 054/083 058/085 058/083
2/T 34/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
LVM 071 049/072 048/074 049/077 049/082 053/082 053/080
3/T 44/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 34/T
HDN 073 051/077 055/079 054/081 055/085 058/087 058/086
2/T 23/T 53/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
MLS 066 051/078 058/078 055/081 056/084 059/085 059/084
2/T 13/T 53/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T
4BQ 066 050/076 055/076 054/079 055/082 058/084 058/084
2/T 13/T 63/T 30/B 01/B 11/B 23/T
BHK 060 049/076 055/077 051/079 051/081 054/083 056/082
6/T 23/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T
SHR 070 048/074 051/072 050/074 050/079 051/081 053/082
3/T 45/T 64/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1115 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AREA
FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CENTER OVER FERGUS...AND PARTS OF
JUDITH BASIN...CHOTEAU...BLAINE...AND CASCADE COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0515Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNLESS
OTHERWISE MENTIONED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING KBZN AND KHLN)
THROUGH 09Z, AND PARTIAL CLEARING THERE COULD BRING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG THROUGH AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE, A
DISTURBANCE IN THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EAST
OF INTERSTATE 15 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA (INCLUDING KLWT AND
KHVR) THROUGH AROUND 16Z. MOUNTAINS THERE WILL GENERALLY BE
OBSCURED. CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOSTLY BE LOW VFR, BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 15 (INCLUDING KGTF AND
KCTB), BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MEAGER...JUDITH BASIN...FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES. PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER BLAINE COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. NUTTER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE INDICATING STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER SATURDAY, SO HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THIS TIME AND MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK INSTABILITY PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY, BUT WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERALL, THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 69 49 72 / 50 30 20 40
CTB 44 69 42 72 / 30 30 20 10
HLN 49 72 52 75 / 70 30 30 30
BZN 45 70 48 72 / 60 20 40 40
WEY 36 66 39 68 / 30 20 20 60
DLN 43 68 47 70 / 60 30 30 40
HVR 52 69 47 76 / 50 70 20 40
LWT 50 67 49 70 / 80 60 30 40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE
MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE
LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY
15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS
NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE
BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE
NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS
3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE
FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN
PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO
STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS
A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO
LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL
COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE
IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS
OF ANDRES OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORMS FIRED JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF NORTH PLATTE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DRIFTING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENT TERMINAL AREA FORECAST
DOES NOT MENTION MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
MODELS GREATLY VARYING LOCATIONS. THUS FELT IT WILL BE BETTER TO
AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. DO HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING AND INCLUDED IN TAF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO
THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE
VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS
ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS
CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM
AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED
LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE
FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS
AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL
BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS
THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A
SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A
FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE
POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET
THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE
FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A
COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES
OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 16Z-18Z THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MCS ACROSS SWRN SD COULD
BRUSH NRN NEB THIS MORNING AFFECTING KVTN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD LIFT INTO SD AND REMAIN NORTH OF NEB.
MEANWHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN NEB WILL MOVE MOSTLY EAST-
NORTHEAST. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE FCST AREA COULD REMAIN
STORM FREE THROUGH 21Z. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS
WEAK...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
FROM 22Z ONWARD ACROSS WRN AND SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY MAY LAST INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WEAKEN 06Z-09Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP 03Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO
THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE
VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS
ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS
CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM
AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED
LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE
FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS
AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL
BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS
THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A
SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A
FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE
POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET
THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE
FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A
COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES
OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. USING A BLEND OF THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS
THAT...BY 07Z...THE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO WILL BE SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY 08Z
NEAR A LXN-MHN-OGA LINE. THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH
LATER TIME FOR THE MERGER...SOMETIME 10Z OR LATER. THE TIMING CAN BE
TIED DOWN TO ABOUT A FOUR-HOUR PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD AN
EARLIER TIME AND SET 08Z FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT LBF.
WITH EASTERLY WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH 1000-1500 FEET CEILINGS LIKELY AND A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET. THE PROBABILITY OF
CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA FIRING ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
H500 HEIGHTS WERE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS
LENDING TO THE SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...LIKELY MAKING PROGRESS
TO ABOUT I80 BEFORE TURNING EAST AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS...AND NOT
SURE IT WILL MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THE SEVERE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING. A LONE STORM WELL EAST OF THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RICHARDSON COUNTY AND LIKELY HAS
PRODUCED AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH SOME REGENERATION ON THE
BACK SIDE. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND IN SOUTHEAST NE. ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL AS PW VALUES WERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WITH BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM.
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND
REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND
OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED.
FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER
THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT
AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM.
SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION
POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY
OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE
BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING
RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR
40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE
CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE.
BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES.
SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A
BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH
SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION
SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT
WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO
BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD AFFECT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 10-14Z. BELIEVE KOFK
MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS 11-14Z. COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 11-16Z...THEN SCATTERING OUT. COULD BE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...LIKELY BY 18-21Z
AND BEYOND...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...
WILL LET LATER FORECASTS FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST UTAH BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND SKY GRIDS...NAMELY TO
REDUCE SKY COVER ACROSS THE DESERTS WHERE FAIRLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE. SOME ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS
LINCOLN...NORTHERN MOHAVE...AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE
THESE AREAS WELL HANDLED. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN LINCOLN COUNTY HAVE
BEEN STRONG AT TIMES...WITH PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING NEAR PANACA BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD IMPLY THE SEVERE
THREAT IS DECREASING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS A MIX OF SUN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOS ANGELES BASIN WITH A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HAVING PUNCHED
NORTHEAST AS FAR AS CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWFA REMAIN STABLE AND THUS DRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MAIN STEERING FLOW HAS
BEEN SOUTHERLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
WELL AS A 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES, ENOUGH CAPE, GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LAPS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS
RESULTED IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY NOTED AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS HERE
TRIGGER WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNPOURS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HOLD ON LONGER AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND
LATER CENTRAL NYE COUNTY FROM UTAH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, MOST MODELS DO NOT SHUT DOWN ACTIVITY ALTOGETHER OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWFA. THUS WE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WHICH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS MT
CHARLESTON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CUMULUS HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GROW
OVER CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, POPS OVER MT CHARLESTON MAY BE
OVERDONE FOR THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING IN MOST SPOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES GETTING SUCKED INTO ARIZONA BUT THIS WILL
SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO GET FED BY THE LOW`S BROAD CIRCULATION
BACK INTO OUR AREA. SO OVER THE WEEKEND, ANY MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE
WHAT IS ALREADY CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST CENTER OF THE LOW`S
CIRCULATION. THUS, THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES
IN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. PROSPECTS LOOK EVEN LOWER ON
SUNDAY AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER DECREASES. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN FOR SATURDAY THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE THE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO STRETCH OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ESSENTIALLY JUST BECOMES AN ELONGATED
PIECE OF ENERGY STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY, WE MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO
LAS VEGAS. THEN ALL EYES START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AT WE EYE
WHAT GOES ON WITH BLANCA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE BLANCA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,
BLANCA IS STILL SLATED TO BE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MONDAY
MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY STEER THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON CERTAIN FEATURES, MODELS HAVE
INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS ALSO
AGREEMENT ON A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF BLANCA, I CANNOT IGNORE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. HAVE UPPED
DEWPOINTS EVEN MORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND YET MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH IN SOME LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING MID-
LEVEL FORCING WORKING NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THE TROUGH MAY EVEN PULL A
LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD, TOWARD US. WITH DESTABILIZATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AT LEAST THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, HAVE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE MORE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO INCREASED
POPS SOME MORE WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LARGER DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY GET INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW MORE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE UNUSUAL FOR JUNE AND MAY KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES GOING FOR SOME AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HAVE TRENDED THEM
COOLER FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE 4-8 KTS EARLY THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONFIGURATION ISSUES AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY AS WINDS VARY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AFTER 05Z
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MAINLY AFTER 20Z FROM NEAR A LINE FROM
KIYK-KELY ON NORTHWEST AND FROM A LINE FROM KELY-KIGM ON NORTHEAST.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. BASED
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH...ATTM DO HAVE A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS ALONG THE PINNED SEA
BREEZE BETWEEN OAK ISLAND AND SURF CITY...VIA KLTX 88D. WILL
CARRY ISOLATED POPS THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY ALONG THE PINNED SEA
BREEZE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN WITH PWS
ACROSS THE FA PROGGED AROUND 1.50 INCHES. A SFC BASED INVERSION
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS DECOUPLING. AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT
HOURS...AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL AND RAOB DATA TO DETERMINE
WHETHER TO HIT THE FOG HARDER. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TONIGHTS MIN
TEMPS...WITH MID 60S COVERING IT...EXCEPT UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU
LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER
LIFTING INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
80. MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE
MID 70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL
STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END
OF THE DAY AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND. THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING
NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON MOST SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR
AREA AND CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY
ALSO MOVE DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION
WHICH DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST
PART AS THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A
SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO 500 MB
ON SATURDAY MAY HELP TRIP OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST DURING AND
FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING...AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS PINNED
ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR. AS THE WEAK LOW MIGRATES EAST AND OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND FORM INTO A WEDGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXIMUMS
ON SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY....WITH POTENTIALLY
AN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GRADUAL
THICKNESS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND TO LESS FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE FORMATION AND SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS THE BEST TIME-FRAME FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AT LEAST CLIMO EACH AFTN. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THURSDAY WHEN
SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS JUNE...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
CLEAN PASSAGE...SO WILL SHOW FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
FEEL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE THANKS TO HIGH HEAT INDICES.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TUES/WED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH AND STALLS...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT LATE IN
THE WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL WANE BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-CHC EVEN FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OTHER THAN A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...QUIET
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN
MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GIVEN SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AOB 8 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NW-N FLOW TO BACK TO THE WSW-WNW
OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF ANY SFC PG WILL YIELD WIND SPEEDS AT 10
KT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PINNED SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
RESULT IN S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS NEARSHORE THRU MID-EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SEAS IN THE FORM OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8
SECOND PERIODS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OVERNIGHT THAT COULD DRIFT PARTIALLY
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR.
PREVIOUS......................................................
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE
TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK BUT VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO LATE SATURDAY. A BIT OF A NE SURGE OF WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE NORTH BUILDS S OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS...BRINGING NE WINDS
TO 15 KT AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE-E
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING IN A 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
SATURDAY MAY BUMP UP TO 3-4 FT SUNDAY AS NE WINDS INCREASE. SEAS
ESE 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS MIXED WITH LIGHT CHOP SATURDAY AND A
MODERATE 1-1.5 FT NE CHOP SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE INSHORE
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY
GET HELD UP AND STALL JUST IN THE VICINITY INSTEAD OF MAKING A
CLEAN PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS RISING FROM 5-10 KTS MONDAY...TO 15-20 KTS
BY LATE TUESDAY. A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEED ALONG WITH A VEERING TO
THE WEST IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SE THAT FRONT
MAKES IT...BUT A QUICK RETURN TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS IS EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND WAVE AND SE
GROUND SWELL...BOTH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...FROM 2-3 FT MONDAY TO 3-5
FT LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT
WEDNESDAY...AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DUE TO THE
IMPINGING UPPER LOW MIGRATING ENE OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM. LOW
LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR MAY AID
IN A BROKEN LINE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
DUE TO OVERALL LIGHT COLUMN WINDS AND STEERING FLOW AS THIS
UPPER FEATURES TRAVERSES...STORM MOTION MAY BE SLUGGISH BUT
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH. THE LIGHT COLUMN WINDS WILL
HINDER OVERALL POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...BUT SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
DWINDLE. MINIMUMS TONIGHT MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S BEHIND A WEAK
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND LINGERING CLOUDS....NEAR 70 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT
THE REGION MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST
TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE
REGION WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG LIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORCING WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND BACK UP ABOVE THAT VALUE ON
SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN AREA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE CAN DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK 5H TROUGHING ON SUN WILL FILL MON AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES FLAT/PROGRESSIVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID LINGERING MOISTURE AND NO REAL CAPPING DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CARRY SLT CHC TO CHC POP SUN/MON. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS 5H TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THE 5H TROUGH MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TUE INTO
WED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LEFT BEHIND...FORMING A SEMI CUTOFF LOW.
THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE STRONGER AND MEANDERS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. EITHER SOLUTION
RESULTS IN THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH POP
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. INHERITED FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE
POP WISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SO PLAN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW
INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE INLAND WITH EQUALLY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WAVERING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS
WITH A LIGHT CHOP NE-E WIND CHOP. ISOLATED TSTMS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM WATERS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF WATER SPOUTS INTO EARLY EVENING BENEATH ANY DEVELOPING
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WINDS WILL
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT DURING THE
PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE
CONDITIONS FOR A NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AN SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY MON AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUE WITH WINDS MON BEING DRIVEN
MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. MODIFIED SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TUE BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON WIND FIELD. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE UPPER LOW
EASING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE ASSOCIATED AROUND AND BENEATH THE FEATURE. MORNING CLOUD COVER
HAS HELD SURFACE WARMING TO MINIMUM VALUES. AS A RESULT NO NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
HOWEVER ARE BEGINNING TO EXPAND PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY WHICH WILL
HELP STEEPEN COLUMN LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE BY 18Z ALONG
THE LENGTH OF OUR COASTAL INTERIOR SEPARATELY FORMED FROM THE COOL
POOL OVER INTERIOR SC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL ALSO
FORM BENEATH THE UPPER SWIRL ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SC...WHICH MAY
EXHIBIT LITTLE MOTION OVERALL. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER INTERIOR SC. MAXIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP
SLIGHTLY SINCE PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS ALREADY DEBUTING IN MANY
AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S MORE LIKELY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
TEXAS. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE
LEAVING ONLY THE USUAL CULPRITS FOR CONVECTION...THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY
AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE SATURDAY. I HAVE DECREASED POPS
BASICALLY ACROSS THE BOARD. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THERE MAY
BE SOME OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WITH THESE FEATURES BUT TIMING
OBVIOUSLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO COMFORTABLE
RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN
ELONGATED RIDGE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE FLOW CERTAINLY AT 700MB AND AT TIMES AT 850MB
WILL BE FROM THE WEST...WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW FOR THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IF REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE
WITH 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AT LEAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A FRONT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA APPEARS TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY. REGARDING POPS...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS
UNTIL THE FRONT LATE THUS ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART TRENDING UP
LATE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW
INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND IS HEADING OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE NORTH AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SURGE LINE
WORKS ITS WAY OFF THE COAST. UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS...BUT MAY INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FT NEARSHORE AND 3 FT OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE IN A COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND A TOUCH OF
SHORTER PERIOD LOCAL WIND WAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A VERY MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND
TEN KNOTS. THIS DUE TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS DEFINED FLOW WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAVE ESSENTIALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT THE
LANDBREEZE WILL DICTATE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EARLY SATURDAY
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
CERTAINLY REFLECTIVE OF THIS BENIGN PATTERN WITH 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS MOST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN LOW WITH A FEW MORE
THREE FOOTERS LATER SUNDAY BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL 1-3 WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE
INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS
REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 05-06 UTC TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WAS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST HRRR ITERATION SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE AREAL
SPREAD/MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION AND FOLLOWED THAT MODEL FOR MAIN
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS
UPDATE REGARDING THIS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT
MAINLY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR
INDICATES THE AREA OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO REACH THE MISSOURI
RIVER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AS OF
230 UTC...WHICH GIVEN LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS PROGGED TO ENTER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 04-06 UTC AHEAD OF MULTIPLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 23 THROUGH 01 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE CLOSE TO THIS TIMELINE...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR
SOLUTIONS FOR POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS CONVECTION PROPAGATING INTO MORE STABLE AIR INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. REGARDING FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. BUT DO EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. WITH OUR RECENT RAINS AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TRIES TO ENCROACH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TONIGHT. HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEST...KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND THERE
ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW ANY CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER. DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE TRACK OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FLATTENS AND LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE GLOBAL MODELS PAINT MODERATE VALLEYS OF CAPE AND
SHEAR ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
FOR CERTAIN...THERE DOES AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS TO CONTINUE AT KJMS UNTIL BEFORE/AROUND
12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER
KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KMOT. SHOWERS AND LOWER VFR EXPECTED TO APPROACH KDIK
AROUND 15Z AND BECOME MORE DEFINITE BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z AT
KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
915 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING. ALSO
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ADJUSTING DOWN
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS MOST OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL IDEA MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD IN.
HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD STILL TRIGGER AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER US WITH
NEXT TO ZERO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE UMPQUA BASING FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS, THEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 21 AND 3Z IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT, THURSDAY, 3 JUNE 2015...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND CHOPPY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AREAS
OF GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CONDITIONS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
STILL TRENDING NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND
PERSISTS. ISOLATED GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING AREAS OF GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
MAINLY FOR WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE FORECAST ON WEDENSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MODELS VARYING ON WHETHER NORTH WINDS MAY WEAKEN OR REMAIN STRONG
DURING THAT PERIOD. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOWS
UP VERY CLEARLY ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THIS LOW BROUGHT SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVED 0.20" TO 0.60" ACCORDING TO RAIN GAGE
REPORTS FROM MESOWEST.
THIS MORNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED SUCH THAT IT IS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE JET
STREAM SUPPORT HAS BEEN YIELDING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
WESTERN MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES THAT HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE THIS MORNING AND
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SAME AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS PROVIDE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT WEST SIDE RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE,
THOUGH EXPECT IT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
IN SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS 850MB
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES REACH -2C TO -4C. BY 03Z MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO YIELD
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TO SQUASH MOST, IF NOT ALL, CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING PRODUCING CELLS. THIS SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE PREVALENT ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO
BRING GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW AND A RESULTANT HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEDFORD NEARING 100F AND THE
SOMES AND SAWYERS BARS AREAS LIKELY SURPASSING 100F. DETAILS
RELATED TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CHANGE EACH DAY, BUT
THE GENERAL SUMMARY IS THAT SURGES IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OREGON CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ENOUGH TO BRING A
NORTHWARD SURGE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A
COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. AS IS
USUALLY TRUE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE SPRING, THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTION OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN DOES THE GFS40.
BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022-618.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
$$
MAP/MAP/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
847 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS COVER 98PCT OF THE AREA. BUT SMALL HOLES IN THE NRN HALF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIGHT RAIN SLIDING
NORTHWARD...BUT PRECIP NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH AS
THESE MOVE PAST THE SENSORS. WILL INCH POPS DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LATEST MESO MDLS PROTRAY A MAINLY DRY TIME. LAKE BREEZE
STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
WELL-CONFINED TO WARREN COUNTY. LIGHT BUT DEVELOPING GRADIENT WIND
FROM THE S SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO FAR INLAND.
PREV...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY
MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO
1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING
INTO S PA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT
SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
723 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY
MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO
1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING
INTO S PA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT
SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS BAD AS FCST.
A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE BEFORE 09Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT
KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN
FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/
CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF
DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE
UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING.
ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR
DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT
KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN
FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/
CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF
DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE
UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING.
ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR
DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 H. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW
NEBRASKA AS OF 02Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS BRING
THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 06Z. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS REALLY IMPACTS WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS TONIGHT...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE NOSE OF THIS ANOMALY. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED WITH TREND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH RESULTS IN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z AND REACHING I29 AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AS MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BUT IF
STORMS ORGANIZE...A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AT OR EVEN ABOVE AN INCH. STORM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE INTO SW MN AND FAR NW IA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
LOOKS LIKE A 3 TO 6 H BREAK BEFORE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND RAISES CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WETTING THE GROUND
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF WET GROUND AND THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL AS STORMS
EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MESO HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN EAST/WEST
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-80.
AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AS CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN.
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT A MINIMUM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IF NOT ADDITIONAL
STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE VALUES.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY 12-
18 HOURS LATER. WITH THIS WAVE....THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE...AND WITH TALL THIN CAPE
PROFILES IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING SPEED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED
SPEED...CERTAINLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GREAT SPEED SHEAR. WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...GREAT VALUES OF HELICITY...VGP AND BULK SHEAR.
01KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 -30 KNOT RANGE...WITH
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WITH THIS GOOD SETUP THOUGH...AM
CONCERNED IT WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL...SO STILL APPEARS THERE IS GOOD HAIL POTENTIAL
IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT
CLEARING POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS AND POPS WILL BE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
EVENING BUT SOME THREAT IS THERE... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A QLCS
AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SHOWER/STORM THREAT
BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE EVENING STARTS
WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE...AND THE DECREASE WILL CONTINUE
STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO COME IN ON A NORTHWEST
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
THE REGIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MILD AND DRY...BECOMING SLOWLY WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING CLOSE TO MIDSUMMER NORMALS...THAT IS...HOLDING SHORT OF 90
DEGREE HIGHS STILL. A PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER FLOW. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS
FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AS IS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...IF
ANY...FOR THE WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION AND CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND ALSO WEST OF KFSD. THESE SHOWERS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT AND ARE
DRIVEN BY DAY TIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND...AS A RESULT...VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF HITTING ANY
AIRPORT.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY OF UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AROUND
SUNRISE AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AND HAVE ADDED THIS CHANCE INTO
TAFS FOR AROUND 1200 UTC. WITH THE LOWER PROBABILITY AT
KSUX...HAVE NOT INCLUDED STORMS IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THEN EXPECT A
BREAK IN CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
STORMS DEVELOP. FOR KHON AND KFSD...THIS SHOULD BE BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TAF. AT KSUX...THIS MAY BE AFTER 00Z
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. AND WITH MORNING
CONVECTION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KFSD AND KHON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT KSUX...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEATING MAY ERODE
LOWEST CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT.
AS ALWAYS...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE 20 TO 40 MINUTES OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF LOCATION.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD
AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90
AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL
A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO
WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT
MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29...
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH
BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE
TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML
CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT
DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A
NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL
THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY
WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION
WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS
OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE TIMED BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING...BUT IN BAND OF
SHOWERS CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE FURTHER
EAST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER MENTION AT KSUX AS END OF THE
LINE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE METRO.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW
OVER CA. ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN GENERAL...BUT THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY. KEPT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AND INTO NORTHEAST WY AS WEAK ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO
2500 J/KG ARE PROGGED FOR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE TROF. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEAN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS
NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT
MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
625 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS
NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT
MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
530 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS
AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT
FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT ALL BUT MEM. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PUBLIC DISCUSSION ABOVE...IT APPEARS THE TSRA COMPLEX OVER MO
WON/T LIKELY MAKE INTO THE JBR AREA BY 22Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
MONITOR.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED MUCH IN THE
AREA...THEREFORE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TS AND EVEN VCTS. THE
BIGGEST HEADLINE DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOG CLOSER TO
DAYLIGHT TOMORROW. CSV SHOULD DROP TO MVFR VIS AND EVEN SOME TEMPO
IFR. DROPPED CKV DOWN TO MVFR AND LEFT BNA VFR. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OR CALM THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK.
REAGAN
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS
AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT
FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM
VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CSV WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING...WITH VCNTY
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE EARLY EVENING EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEGREADE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS. BNA/CKV MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LATE NIGHT
FOG BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THE PERIOD.
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM
VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY AT TUP...MKL AND JBR NEAR SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR. POTENTIAL EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR A BOUT OF LOW CIGS AT LBB
AND PVW AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL
FOR AN EXPLICIT TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS COMPOSED OF UA LOW
DISTURBANCES IMPINGING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS...WHILST UA
RIDGING CONTINUED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE RATHER SLOW ENEWRD TRANSLATING UA LOW NOTED ACROSS SRN CALI IN
PARTICULAR HAS AIDED IN STREAMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS /INCLUDING
HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE ANDRES/ ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LOW SYSTEM NW OF THE
REGION HAS PROMOTED MODEST S-SE SFC BREEZES /10-20 MPH SUSTAINED/
AND THUS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS SUCH DESPITE AN UA
RIDGE OVERHEAD /AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND/...TEMPS
HAVE ONLY BEEN CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST CNTRL NM LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A MEAN
FLOW WIND OF 15-20 KTS DIRECTED OUT OF THE S-SW...THESE STORMS MAY
BE HARD-PRESSED TO REACH THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND THE HRRR DO HINT AT A FEW STRAY STORMS
THAT COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING. IF SO...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO AOA 5-10 MPH. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. TOMORROW...THE UA LOW
ACROSS SRN CALI WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO SRN NV HENCE MAKING VERY
LITTLE HEADWAY...WHILST THE UA RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...STORMS NEARING THE WRN/NWRN ZONES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EARLY EVENING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM. 29
LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS TRENDS STILL APPEAR MOSTLY ON TRACK REQUIRING FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND UPPER
RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW
MORE PRESSURE FROM MOIST FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. LOW CHANCE THUNDER BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND EDGED AGAINST NORTHWEST CORNER STILL VALID. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFUSED WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HELP
MAXIMIZE THUNDER OPPORTUNITY BY TUESDAY. AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE SO PERHAPS
WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FAVORING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. AFTER THIS WAVE CLEARS TO THE EAST UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD
REBOUND NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ROGUE STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY BUT WE ARE HOLDING TO A DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS
SHOW. THEN...A MORE BULLISH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALSO
PERHAPS BECOMING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFUSED WITH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A MORE STOUT COLD FRONT ALSO MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY
EARLY SATURDAY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER
END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS SCENARIO. SO AS ALREADY
STATED...NOT MANY CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR IS ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING INTO MVFR ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 17Z TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING
NEAR AND NORTH OF SAT-DRT LINE. SOME PATCHES MAY WORK TOWARDS THE
AUS TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AROUND 15Z ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST...AND AROUND 17Z OVER THE RIO GRANDE
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCT CU FIELD
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT AUS/SAT AND TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THU AFTERNOON AT DRT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT
FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN
THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT
FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN
THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Overall a decreasing threat of showers is expected into
Thursday...becoming confined to mainly the northern mountains.
Much warmer weather is expected Friday into the weekend as a high
pressure ridge returns to the region. Saturday, Sunday and Monday
will feel like summer, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s
to mid 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Rain chances have been increased across the
northern mountains and specifically between the Pasayten
Wilderness and Colville Area. Satellite reveals the remnants of a
trowal airstream continuing to stream across southern BC and into
Central WA. While radar does not look like much...precipitation
rates to 0.11" per hour have been observed with this activity.
Any convection this evening has been rather shallow and not very
impressive via radar but was capable of a quick 0.10 give or take.
One shower, with similar characteristics, tracked through the
Carlton Burn Complex just northwest of Malott briefly flooding
Chiliwist Road near Chiliwist Creek. With dewpoints in these areas
still in the lower 50s, even the shallow convection is putting
down brief tropical-like downpours. It is a good thing that
convection is shallow or we could be seeing a lot more flood
issues.
Satellite reveals a small vort max taking shape over Grant County at
this hour. HRRR suggest some shower activity is possible with this
feature but should be ongoing as of 04z. There are definitely
clouds due to the lift from this feature but little to no echoes
on radar thus far except a small shower south of Creston. Perhaps
a few more showers will spring to life but confidence is low given
the lack of current activity. /sb
&&
.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A filling trof of low pressure remains over
the region for one more day. The main pcpn threat will be over the
northern mountains however several small scale swirls evident
on radar could deliver a few weak showers through Thur morning.
Otherwise...strato-cumulus developing with heating on Thur
will give way to decr clouds and dry conditions Thur PM. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 74 54 80 58 86 / 20 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 47 73 51 79 55 86 / 20 10 10 10 10 0
Pullman 42 71 47 78 52 84 / 10 10 0 10 0 0
Lewiston 52 78 54 83 59 90 / 10 10 0 10 10 0
Colville 53 76 50 82 53 88 / 60 30 20 10 0 0
Sandpoint 44 73 48 79 52 85 / 30 20 10 10 10 0
Kellogg 43 73 47 78 50 84 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
Moses Lake 51 79 54 87 59 94 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 56 80 60 86 65 93 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 54 78 52 84 56 91 / 90 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...FEW CIRRUS PASSING ACROSS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN WI
OVERNIGHT. MORE CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER SRN
LK MI AND AFFECTING SOUTHEAST WI LATER TNGT. SEE BELOW AVIATION
DISCUSSION WRT STRATUS.
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREAS INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SOME CONCERN ABOUT A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS
MOVING ASHORE FROM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. LATEST
11-3.9 MICON IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SMALL AREAS OF ST DEVELOPING
WEST OF KBEH OVER FAR SRN LK MI. ST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VCNTY
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH INVERTED TROF OVER SW LOWER
MI. LATEST HRRR BRINGS IN LOWER CIGS INTO SE WI LATER TNGT. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...WL PROBABLY GO WITH SCT WORDING INTO THE
MRNG...UNLESS ST EXPANDS RAPIDLY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. FEW
VESSELS IN MILWAUKEE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
17KTS AT 02Z. ALSO SHEBOYGAN COAST GUARD REPORTED 4 FT WAVES ABOUT
1 MILE FROM SHORE AROUND 01Z...WHERE WINDS HAD NOT BEEN AS
STRONG LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
&&
.BEACHES...ONSHORE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY...IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. SWIM RISK WILL BE LOW FOR THOSE
WHO VENTURE BRIEFLY INTO THE COLD LAKE MI WATERS. HYPOTHERMIA
COULD STILL OCCUR IN 30-60 MINUTES IN WATER TEMPERATURES THIS
COLD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
EXPECTED QUIET WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY
ANTICYCLONIC. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOTED ACRS CNTRL WI AND
ALSO A DRIER SURGE COMING DOWN THE LAKE SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT
IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S FOR
WESTERN 2/3RDS OR SO OF THE CWA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH
NUDGING SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LLVL RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER SOME SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EARLY SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM
MOS AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES ZONAL AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES
TO AROUND 85 KNOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THE WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. AT 500 MB THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES CHAOTIC DUE TO THE MODEL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A SUNDAY MORNING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE 700 MB SPEED MAX PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE 925 MB LAYER RELATIVELY COOLER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION. 925 MB LAYERS WARM AGAIN DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON. ON THE SLOWER GFS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS DOES
INCREASE THE ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 2000 JOULES/KG
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PRODUCES GREATER POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAN THE NAM.
THE GFS NSHARP DOES SHOW A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR WITH MORE OF A CURVED HODOGRAPH. THERE DOES SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL
OF LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE MID LEVELS DRY TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH MUCH LESS CAPE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS WEAK TO MODERATE
UPWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...BUT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY NORTH TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. THEN THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASES THURSDAY ON THE FASTER GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STILL DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER...SLOWER AND MORE BROAD TROUGH BACK
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE GFS PUTS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT FROM IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LLVL RH
DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MARINE...
BORDERLINE GUSTS COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL WATER TEMPS AND AIR
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
..WILL CONTINUE THE PRIOR SHIFT IDEA OF NOT ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND RIDGING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVES OF
NOTE TOPPING THE RIDGE INCLUDE: ONE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND TWO OTHERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
THESE LATTER SHORTWAVES WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET... CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THESE WERE ALSO ON
A WARM FRONT SET UP NEAR I-70. CLOSER TO HOME...DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT SAME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS DECK IS
FINALLY MIXING OUT. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C PER 12Z RAOBS COMBINED
WITH THE SUN HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT UP INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFY. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE IMPACT TO OUR AREA FROM THIS UPPER FLOW CHANGE IS TO PUT US IN
MORE NORTHWEST FLOW...FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND THE BUILD IN OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THUS A DRY
FORECAST WOULD SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE TWO CONCERNS.
THE FIRST IS THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...
LIKELY INITIATING CONVECTION ON ITS NOSE WITH AID FROM THE NEBRASKA
SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MESOSCALE
MODELS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS LOOKS LIKELY...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD SAY THE MCS WOULD TRAVEL INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FROM
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH WANT TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
STORMS NORTH OF THE MCS. THESE APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS PUSHING EAST. HAVE HELD ONTO 15-25 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH ANOTHER MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION...THE 04.12Z
HIRES-ARW...KEEPS THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SEEMS
VERY PLAUSIBLE.
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES UP...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL ABOUT 2C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WITH
MORE SUN ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS
THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEARING OUT FRIDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN WI SHOULD ALLOW
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. 50S ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...CERTAINLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND 5KM DOWNSCALED NAM
ALREADY WANT TO SPREAD CONVECTION INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ITS WORTH NOTING...THOUGH...THAT A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH FOR
PRECIPITATION...THUS THE FORECAST 60-70 CHANCES...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST THE STORMS TO SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
WI. MEANWHILE...AN MCS COULD EASILY FORM IN WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY
EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE 04.12Z ECMWF AND ITS PAST RUNS. CORFIDI
VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD SUPPORT
THE MCS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST IA...THUS THE SPLIT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
A DEEP TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT BEING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE 04.12Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER TROUGH...HAVE SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN WI. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO 12-14C. THESE ARE STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER RESUMES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AT LEAST 14-18C...
BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN FACT...IF THE 04.12Z EC
PANS OUT WITH 850MB TEMPS TRYING TO REACH 18-20C LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME PLACES COULD PUSH THE UPPER 80S...MAKING IT THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ITS COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM AND REFLECTED AS SUCH IN THE
FORECAST. THE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS NEW TROUGHING MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH 7 PLUS DAYS OUT...LATE
NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WERE SLOWLY MIXING/
ERODING THE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH THE CLOUD
DECK AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT BY 20Z. CLOUDS THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SCT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FAVOR SOME BR ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME.
ADDED SOME 5SM BR TO KLSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING BEING MORE
SHELTERED IN THE MS VALLEY...WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF 5SM BR AT KRST
WITH A BIT MORE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS. CONVECTION THE
NEXT 24HRS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MORE HUMID WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT WITH A STRONGER BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER AND ALMOST BLOCKY SOUTHERN
STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS...THEN SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE BRANCHES WL OCCUR. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GENERAL WNWLY UPR FLOW ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...FM A BROAD RIDGE OUT WEST TO A TROF OVER THE
ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS DURING THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS GENERATING
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER NW...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE GROWING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOME OF THESE BREAKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUD TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE EVENING...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH IT. THINK BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ARRIVE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING...SO TOOK
OUT OF THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MUGGY UNTIL THE WINDS
KICK UP. LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND DRY AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE INROADS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE BRISK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH AROUND 70 NORTH AND
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. KEPT SKYCON LOW FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLDS ROTG ARND THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THEN BECOMES DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHRTWV CROSSES THE
RGN. THE SYSTEM WL LIKLEY DRAW IN AT LEAST SOME ENERGY FM THE
WEAKENING SRN STREAM...AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A CYCLONE ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SET
UP FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY LATE SAT NGT/SUN MORNING AS LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED ACRS THE
AREA. ONCE THAT SHIFTS E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. BUT
THAT WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW
MUCH DEBRIS CLDS LINGER FM THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. WITH A LOT
OF UNKNOWNS...JUST OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED
FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
MILD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN AS SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNWLY UPR FLOW CROSS THE
RGN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THEN AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING QUICKLY WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 80. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID
LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SCATTERED OR BROKEN CUMULOUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IT
AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS
WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN
THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE
ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE
EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY.
925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER
COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS...
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE.
THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER
CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN
850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME
FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT
DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW
THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO
WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN
LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS
WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN
THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE
ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE
EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY.
925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER
COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS...
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE.
THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER
CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN
850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME
FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT
DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW
THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO
WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN
LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
.MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS
HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN.
THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING
MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I-
70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF.
NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING.
IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG
JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL
AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD
THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE
03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING
TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP
MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z
CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP
AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW
THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE
STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND
THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO.
TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WITH SHOWERS HAVING MOVED EAST OF KRST/KLSE...MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS. LARGE MVFR/IFR
CLOUD DECK ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON TIMING AND CEILING HEIGHT...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OVER TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
04.09 TO 04.10Z PERIOD. LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
959 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TRENDS AND RAISE POPS SATURDAY. SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND LOCALLY ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY, WE RAISED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NV. WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE GOOD, THE STRENGTH OF STORMS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW QUICK
CONVECTION FIRES. IF WE CAN GET 4-5 HOURS OF HEATING, THEN STORMS
WOULD BE STRONGER. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
A QUICK LOOK AT SATURDAY SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS HAD BEEN
UNDERPLAYING THIS POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z NAM SHOWED IT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AND CONSIDER ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM
WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER
CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS
EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED.
YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED
AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED
1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.
MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS
AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL
ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY
SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA.
TOLBY
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE
WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST
CONVECTION.
FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR
AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO
THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MJD
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPDATED TO CANCEL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
HEADING TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL HAS THIS
ARRIVING IN EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 02Z...WHICH IS AFTER THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THINK THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MTS. ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND THAT TIME. HIGH RES HRRR DOES DEVELOP AN ISOLATED
CELL ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 03Z...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS VERIFIES. SO THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY NOT ENTIRELY OVER YET
THIS EVENING FOR EL PASO...AND PUEBLO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT QUICKLY
TO END TOR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE STORM ACTIVITY.
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
INCLUDE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS(SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE) OVER EASTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST QG ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH FOR BACA...BENT...CROWLEY...
PASO...HUERFANO...KIOWA...LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
ALSO...NEAR SEASONAL EARLY JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES THE
NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGION OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK. SUBTLE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. MODESTLY
DRIER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DECREASE IN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
.MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. EC IS FASTER
MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SLOWER. SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
LOWER SCATTERER POPS FOR THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA MID
WEEK...THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING OUR WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP WITH A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. CURRENT
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME STORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE CWA. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAINFALL
WHICH OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCOS TOWARDS MORNING...HOWEVER
PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SO
DO NOT HAVE THIS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KALS MAY SEE
SOME SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT IN THE
MORNING...THEN ALL THREE TAF SITES STAND A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR KCOS
AND KPUB AS THUNDERSTORMS ROLL OFF TO THE EAST. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
EASTERN UT THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO SW CO FROM NEW MEXICO BY ABOUT 09Z. THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
EVERY AIRPORT...AND TAF SITES WILL SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING
TO ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED AND HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
506 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM NRN NJ TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ACTING ON ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG
PER HRRR KEWR SOUNDING. THE BAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NYC
METRO...SW CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NW AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY BECOMING SFC-BASED IN THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS THE WEAK FRONT WASHES
OUT OVER THIS AREA...LEAVING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
BEHIND. H8 COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STILL BE TO THE NW...WITH AXIS OF
HIGHER H8 DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH ONE LAST WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GUSTY N WIND
INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK E-SE COASTAL SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING LATE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH 3
FT SE SWELLS AFFECTING THE SHORELINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INVOF NYC AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
SUBSIDENCE...LOWER H8-10 THICKNESSES AND THEN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS
A FEW DEG COOLER...MOSTLY 70-75...BUT WITH UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL
AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM
NYC EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA...WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z...WEAKENING AS IT
MOVE FARTHER EAST. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z
AND 14Z WITH WEAK FRONT. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BTWN 11Z AND 14Z. SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 13Z TO
15Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE SEA BREEZE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING
KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW
GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
N FLOW TODAY MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...INCOMING SWELLS MAY BUILD
OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OUT EAST FOR A TIME TOWARD EVENING.
SCA NOT ISSUED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MEETING CRITERIA...AND HAVE
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS WILL COME MON-TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ON ALL WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES
AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM NRN NJ TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ACTING ON ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG
PER HRRR KEWR SOUNDING. THE BAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NYC
METRO...SW CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NW AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY BECOMING SFC-BASED IN THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS THE WEAK FRONT WASHES
OUT OVER THIS AREA...LEAVING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
BEHIND. H8 COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STILL BE TO THE NW...WITH AXIS OF
HIGHER H8 DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH ONE LAST WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLD ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GUSTY N WIND
INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK E-SE COASTAL SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING LATE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE INTERIOR CT
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWERS 70 ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INVOF NYC AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
SUBSIDENCE...LOWER H8-10 THICKNESSES AND THEN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS
A FEW DEG COOLER...MOSTLY 70-75...BUT WITH UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL
AREA COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM
NYC EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY
WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TSTM
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS
INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE
SEA BREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW
GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
N FLOW TODAY MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...INCOMING SWELLS MAY BUILD
OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OUT EAST FOR A TIME TOWARD EVENING.
SCA NOT ISSUED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON MEETING CRITERIA...AND HAVE
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS WILL COME MON-TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ON ALL WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES
AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS
SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT CERTAIN.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR
BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 60.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB
FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO
GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER
40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE
UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE
WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
06.00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL THINKING FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. INITIAL NRN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ABOUT 48 HRS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FORCED RIDGE AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...MAINLY DUE TO IT/S BEING EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN JET. THE SFC REFLECTION...A COLD FRONT...COULD PARALLEL THE
FLOW ALOFT AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS ON
BOTH THE ECENS/GEFS SIDE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING NOW FOR THE MIDDLE PERIOD...BUT
ERR TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND THE FACT THE
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING E OF THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN
REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SFC DWPTS BEGIN TO
RISE. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MON AND TUE...
UPPER LVL DEEPENING WAVE WILL BE MOVING E FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC...PUSHING THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
JET INTO PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS US UP FOR
LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
/NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ PROVIDE THE REST OF THE SUPPORT. SO...WITH A WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH LATE MON...EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT. FEEL IT WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE DAY THANKS TO THE
MOISTURE FLUX BEING TOP-DOWN PRIMARILY...SO THE LOW LVL DRY AIR
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON
TUE...YIELDING YET ANOTHER ROUND FOR SHOWERS. THE ONE QUESTION
THAT REMAINS IS INSTABILITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING ALONG THE SRN
TIER. STILL K-VALUES REACH OVER 30 /LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF MOISTURE/
AND SOME MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF 500J/KG SFC CAPE ON
TUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
POTENTIAL BREAK WHICH MAY YIELD BETTER SFC HEATING. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF TS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE...BUT LIMIT THE
WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING.
WED AND WED NIGHT...
RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C.
THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE..AND WHILE THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...IT/S LIKELY SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THU OR FRI WILL YIELD -SHRA INITIALLY...BUT THEN IT
MAY STALL IS IT PARALLELS THE MEAN JET DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS IS
ALONG THE RIM OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE...SO WARM TEMPS ARE
LIKELY...BUT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVE COULD DEVELOP PERIODS OF
WET/UNSTABLE WX AT TIMES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EXACT
FRONT PLACEMENT IS RESOLVED...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW TIMING OR HOW
MUCH RAIN WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LINGERING IFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS AS THE FRONT
CAME ACROSS NEW YORK SHOWED MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CLEARING
AND DRIER WEATHER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GUST TO 25
KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OR TREND THAT WAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT NEAR S COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH NIGHT A SERIES OF FRONTS EACH DAY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR WILL
DOMINATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S.
WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BUILDING
SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE 5-6FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUE...BUT IT MAY TAKE MORE
TIME FOR THE SEAS TO FULLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOG/RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS
SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT CERTAIN.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR
BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 60.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB
FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO
GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER
40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE
UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE
WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT FOR A COMPROMISE AMONGST THE
ECMWF/GFS TO BE USED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS FAVORED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS SO WILL
FOCUS ON THE ECMWF WHERE DIFFERENCES ARISE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO
POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
SO NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT THE THUNDER CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE REGION.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING QUIET...SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LINGERING IFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO...A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS AS THE FRONT
CAME ACROSS NEW YORK SHOWED MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. CLEARING
AND DRIER WEATHER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GUST TO 25
KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OR TREND THAT WAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER RETURNS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AGAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
THEN OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER THROUGH THIS MORNING. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH RH VALUES
THOUGH WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS.
A GUSTY NLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LATE DAY E/SE
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NE FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
MET MOS IS WARMER ON SAT AS THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING.
USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FCST MODELS WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA
COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE FROM NYC N AND W LATE MONDAY THEN FROM NYC
EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR WED
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY
WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TSTM
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. SPEEDS
INCREASE AFTER 13-15Z...WITH GUSTS BECOMING OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON E/ESE
SEABREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR/KLGA TOWARDS 00Z.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SW
GUSTS 20-25KT PM.
.TUESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR IN SHRA...MAINLY AM. W GUSTS 20 KT PM.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GIVES TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK.
NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SAT WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM THE
ISSUANCE OF SCA ON SAT. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING N FLOW.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD MONDAY
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS...WAVES AND LIGHTNING BOTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVE
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AND EVE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MON-TUE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
427 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far
northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to
produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty
persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly
approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on
one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per
hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced
flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in
northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through
9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east
with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields
aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is
steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong
enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts
have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent
along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular
to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current
complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly
high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to
occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and
flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease
in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions
through the day.
As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by
afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon
and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However,
expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the
forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected
MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may
spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast
soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight
hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more
strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the
case though based on recent model performance and have maintained
thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with
recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and
flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging
wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area
on the southern flank.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.
Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue
to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern
half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and
the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that
area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western
U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping
to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at
least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops
over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains,
helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area
and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is
model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary,
ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit
more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away
point for this system is that it will bring another round of
thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional
heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued
flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady
conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the taf period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible early
this morning. Confidence on the coverage is low therefore went
with vicinity for now. There might be brief periods of MVFR/IFR if
storms track over the airport.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
GENERALLY LED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SINCE A FEW VALLEY
LOCATIONS WERE NEAR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONVECTION
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIMINISHED LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA NEAR CRW AND IN
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE WV COALFIELDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL
INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE ATTM. OUTSIDE OF THIS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN SEVERAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SMALL AND FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IT BECOMING DENSE WITH SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS WORKING OVERHEAD AND THE WEAK FRONT POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SOME MIXING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
RAIN SHOWERS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED.
PATCHY FOG IS STILL ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL BE JUST AS
UNPREDICTABLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
RAN THE ESTF DATA LOAD AND BLEND TOO TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS DATA
INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS. THE FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD THUS
FAR THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR DATA
TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP IN OUR AREA OR
MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IF NO SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT...MAY UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
REMOVE RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ALTOGETHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VISIBLE SAT SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OF CU RIDING ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CU FIELD AND HAVE GENERALLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER TRACKING SLOWLY SE. THEREFORE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE
EVENING...AND THEREFORE SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND
WEAKEN. THE BETTER LIFT AND ENERGY WILL BE SPLIT WITH SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST AND WAVE TO THE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THIS HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WITH
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OUT OF
THIS EVENT.
OVERNIGHT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT DECENT INVERSION SO
DID OPT TO LEAN TOWARD SOME MAINLY VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER AREAS THAT
DO MANAGE TO GET SOME SHOWERS WOULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME PATCHY FOG. SATURDAY EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE
HINTS AT BETTER CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE BRIEF NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW MORE SPOTS STAYING CLOSE TO
80 SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
UNDER INVERSION. EXPECTING LOWS TO GENERALLY DROP OFF INTO THE
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HANG UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR
OVERHEAD PROVIDING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY APPEARS LIKE A NICE DAY.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW
THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
EAST KENTUCKY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROGGED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND WIND FIELDS SUPPORT A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING. THE FRONT
ITSELF ONLY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING A THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS
A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CUTS
OFF AND SETTLES IN TO OUR WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING BACK NORTH SO WAS NOT ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR THE BULK
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG FORMATION BETWEEN
NOW AND DAWN. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS TO MVFR OR IFR
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT SME AND
GUIDANCE TAKING VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS...CONTINUED TO FORECAST VIS
BELOW SME MINS FROM 10Z TO 12Z. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...ANY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT COULD SEE VIS OR CIGS DOWN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
341 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
...Feeling More Summer Like and Humid This Weekend...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning.
Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will
keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two
warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper
80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and
tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances
will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest
day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the
upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No
precip is expected during the day on Sunday.
A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri
into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south
late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas
in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging
wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be
best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or
isolated severe storm.
The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the
Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up.
This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the
middle of the week especially across the southern half of the
Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June
next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week
with another chance of widespread showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Convection has shifted south of the area late this evening and not
expecting additional convection through the forecast period as
ridge builds more into the region. Light surface winds and very
moist boundary layer will likely lead to some fog overnight. Have
dropped down into MVFR conditions with TAFS overnight and threw in
a tempo group with some LIFR ceilings at SGF for a few hours
towards morning. Should generally see quickly improving conditions
on Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area
early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu
fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for
what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the
s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little
fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over
the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg
with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear
look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave
expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some
strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm
clusters are a possibility through mid evening.
With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and
shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall
chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front"
is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure
over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least
focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday
morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an
uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a
southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be
to the north.
Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with
progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates
and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse
type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall
chances will be fairly low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid
south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief
time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try
to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level
capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday.
The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens
out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over
southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near
or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also
indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the
mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances
for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks
fairly quiet.
On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a
shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the
southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant
moisture progged to be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Convection has shifted south of the area late this evening and not
expecting additional convection through the forecast period as
ridge builds more into the region. Light surface winds and very
moist boundary layer will likely lead to some fog overnight. Have
dropped down into MVFR conditions with TAFS overnight and threw in
a tempo group with some LIFR ceilings at SGF for a few hours
towards morning. Should generally see quickly improving conditions
on Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO
CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS
LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95
KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA.
THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM
PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST
EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN)
PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS.
TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z
HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY
DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM.
IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY
70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S
NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA YIELDS AROUND 09-12Z AT KLNK AND SHORTLY
AFTER THAT AT KOMA/KOFK. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CONVECTION. THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY MID MRNG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS POST
RA BEFORE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. SOME
THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA SAT EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES...BUT
ESPECIALLY AT KOMA/KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY
COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED
ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS
SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY
SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO
1.7 INCH RANGE.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT.
INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY
83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA
IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY
OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE
5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.
POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT
BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY
AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL
MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT
SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD
BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS
SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH
SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO
1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH
STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...
NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY
LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH
RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET.
AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 07 OR 08Z OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS
TIME...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER MID MORNING...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE 00Z TO
06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30
GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH FOR STORMS. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP FROM 02Z TO
06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CROSBY
ALREADY REPORTING ALMOST 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF DIVIDE AND
WILLIAMS COUNTIES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KENMARE AND STANLEY TO BOWMAN. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE
INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS
REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK EARLY
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT
STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND
THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE.
I HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE.
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE
SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF PA. AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH...EARLY CLOUDS MIX OUT AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL BE
COUNTERACTED BY A COOL NORTH BREEZE...WITH TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 70
IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO A NRN STREAM DOMINATED FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SHIFTS
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IN THE MID RANGE TIMEFRAME IS THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT
MID RANGE MODELS BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OUT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WARM MOIST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AND SVR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GEFS HAS AMPLE PWATS AND STRONG LLVL FLOW WHICH SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. DRIER...MORE STABLE
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE
VFR BY MID MORNING...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.
OVERALL...NOT A BAD WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME PERSISTENT SPOTTY CONVECTION LINGERS THIS HOUR FROM ABOUT
STATE COLLEGE TO ALTOONA AND EASTWARD. DESPITE THE GENERAL TREND
THAT SEEMS TO SHOWS THINGS WEAKENING SLOWLY...THE HRRR KEEPS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MARCHING INTO SERN PA THROUGH SUNRISE. I
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. BUT I DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CAPE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE.
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLACES WHERE IT RAINED AND THE
SKIES TRY TO CLEAR OUT. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE SHOWERS/FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF PA. AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH...EARLY CLOUDS MIX OUT AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL BE
COUNTERACTED BY A COOL NORTH BREEZE...WITH TEMPS PEAKING NEAR 70
IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO A NRN STREAM DOMINATED FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SHIFTS
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IN THE MID RANGE TIMEFRAME IS THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT
MID RANGE MODELS BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OUT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WARM MOIST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AND SVR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GEFS HAS AMPLE PWATS AND STRONG LLVL FLOW WHICH SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. DRIER...MORE STABLE
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS
IN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED IF ANY CELLS THREATEN SPECIFIC
AIRFIELDS.
MODELS HINT THAT LOWER MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SHALLOW MOIST LOW LAYER. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH DRYING CONDITIONS...SHOULD RETURN ALL
AIRFIELDS TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z TOMORROW MORNING.
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ONLY
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 H. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW
NEBRASKA AS OF 02Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS BRING
THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 06Z. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE WAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS REALLY IMPACTS WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS TONIGHT...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE NOSE OF THIS ANOMALY. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED WITH TREND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH RESULTS IN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z AND REACHING I29 AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AS MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BUT IF
STORMS ORGANIZE...A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AT OR EVEN ABOVE AN INCH. STORM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE INTO SW MN AND FAR NW IA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
LOOKS LIKE A 3 TO 6 H BREAK BEFORE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND RAISES CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WETTING THE GROUND
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF WET GROUND AND THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL AS STORMS
EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MESO HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN EAST/WEST
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF I-80.
AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AS CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN.
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT A MINIMUM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IF NOT ADDITIONAL
STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE VALUES.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY 12-
18 HOURS LATER. WITH THIS WAVE....THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE...AND WITH TALL THIN CAPE
PROFILES IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING SPEED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH INCREASED
SPEED...CERTAINLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GREAT SPEED SHEAR. WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...GREAT VALUES OF HELICITY...VGP AND BULK SHEAR.
01KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 -30 KNOT RANGE...WITH
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WITH THIS GOOD SETUP THOUGH...AM
CONCERNED IT WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL...SO STILL APPEARS THERE IS GOOD HAIL POTENTIAL
IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT
CLEARING POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS AND POPS WILL BE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
EVENING BUT SOME THREAT IS THERE... INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A QLCS
AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SOME SHOWER/STORM THREAT
BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE EVENING STARTS
WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE...AND THE DECREASE WILL CONTINUE
STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO COME IN ON A NORTHWEST
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
THE REGIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MILD AND DRY...BECOMING SLOWLY WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING CLOSE TO MIDSUMMER NORMALS...THAT IS...HOLDING SHORT OF 90
DEGREE HIGHS STILL. A PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER FLOW. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS
FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AS IS THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...IF
ANY...FOR THE WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA KICKING OFF CONVECTION AT 05Z.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TAF LOCATIONS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT BUT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND
KHON...AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT KFSD...AND MAINLY JUST
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KSUX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLE AFFECT ALL AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS
WELL IF ON-GOING CONVECTION IN WESTERN NE AND SD HOLDS TOGETHER INTO
EASTERN SD. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BY 12Z SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTH. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KFSD AND KHON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AT KSUX...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEATING MAY ERODE LOWEST
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH
CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT.
AS ALWAYS...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY
TAF LOCATION.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION BY NOON.
TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW
90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH
AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.
LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL
REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
THE EARLY EVENING MCS HAS FALLEN APART AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR KTUP. OTHERWISE ALL
OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND TRENDED THIS MORNING
TOWARDS HRRR WITH CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER
WORDS...ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST THIS
EVENING...ROUGHLY FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NW NC. THIS
WITHIN A NARROW AXIS BETWEEN MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND
RESIDUAL COOL AIR OUT EAST AIDED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO JUST WEST OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL 1K J/KG CAPE
AND 1+ INCH PWAT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS HELPING TO KEEP CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION GOING. WOULD EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
A WHILE AFTER SUNSET BUT GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW/MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
CONTINUING ESPCLY WEST OVERNIGHT. THUS KEPT SIMILAR HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WHILE CONFINING MORE TO AN AXIS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LITTLE OUT IN THE PIEDMONT OR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL
AS HAVE SEEN AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD THIS
EVENING. OTRW PC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.
STILL RATHER COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S OVERALL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY
RELINQUISHING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AMPLIFIES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO THE NORTH. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT
AND IT WILL END UP PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY JUNE NORMALS...GENERALLY UPPER 50 TO MID- 60S. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TRY TO PUSH SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
BUT SILL ONLY 30S POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEST PWATS WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS BUT
NOTHING OF MUCH HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH ONLY GENERAL THUNDER LIKELY PER SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE..UPPER 70S NW TO MID-80S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WEDGE WILL BE SHALLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ERODING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH
AND ALONG WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY WRING OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS WEEKEND`S WEDGE MAY STILL BE IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT
WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
INCREASING MIXING WILL REMOVE ANY LEFT-OVER WEDGE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TRACKING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH IN ZONAL FLOW...THEREFORE IT
WILL TAKE A GOOD 24-36 HOURS TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TAPER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM A CLOSED LOW
HOVERS OVER THE MID WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT BEST GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY THIS
MORNING. OTRW FOG AND STRATUS THE OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING
ESPCLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OR WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER EASTERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH MORE OF A STRATUS TO FOG SCENARIO LATE. IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ESPCLY ALONG THE
KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR WITH MVFR ELSW.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES EAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WHERE INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO QUICKLY
FADE SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS
LIKELY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD FADE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NW. THIS LOOKS TO MAKE FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY AS MOST LIFT GETS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
ESPCLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NUDGE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERALL VFR
EXPECTED. THIS IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT
TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD
EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE
500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH
ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS
EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT
HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE
06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF
SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION
N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB-
KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS
COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT
LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY
NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST
AREA.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD
THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE
BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY...
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST
WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE
MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER
SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE
THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR.
MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME
CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT
MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS
SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE
GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME
SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND
THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT
FORECAST CONTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F
IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER
THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP
MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST
IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE...MORE JUNE-
LIKE END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 07.06Z AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT KRST BY 07.03Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN A THIRD COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY...THE BACK END OF THE -SHRA
BAND MOVING THROUGH SE MA MARKS THE COLD FRONT BASED ON A MIX OF
OBS/MSAS DATA. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DUE TO
STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF -SHRA IN WRN MA/CT IS
REMNANT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT IT TOO DRIES AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE. THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM
NW-SE THROUGH THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EARLY CLOUD MAY
LIMIT TEMPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK N-NE FLOW AND
REMNANTS OF A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COASTAL LOCATIONS
LIKELY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...WITH AREAS INLAND MAKE
ANOTHER RUN AT THE 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND LINE APPROACHING. THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS
SECOND LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S WHILE HRRR CAPE DIMINISHES. SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT CERTAIN.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MIDDAY TO SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON REACHES 850 MB IN THE INTERIOR
BUT STRUGGLES FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CLEARING IS LATER.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-9C IN THE WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THERE. COOLER TEMPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MARINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 60.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS AT 1000 MB
FORECAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...AND 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT. SO
GUSTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST MAY REACH 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER
40S AND POSSIBLE BELOW 40 IN SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WE
UNDERCUT THE LOW-END MIN TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTS. MIXING SHOULD AGAIN REACH 850 MB WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES. WE
WENT A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY BUT RECOGNIZE THAT WE MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. OVERALL RANGE SHOULD BE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AND AGAIN THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
06.00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL THINKING FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. INITIAL NRN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ABOUT 48 HRS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FORCED RIDGE AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...MAINLY DUE TO IT/S BEING EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN JET. THE SFC REFLECTION...A COLD FRONT...COULD PARALLEL THE
FLOW ALOFT AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS ON
BOTH THE ECENS/GEFS SIDE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING NOW FOR THE MIDDLE PERIOD...BUT
ERR TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND THE FACT THE
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING E OF THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN
REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SFC DWPTS BEGIN TO
RISE. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MON AND TUE...
UPPER LVL DEEPENING WAVE WILL BE MOVING E FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC...PUSHING THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
JET INTO PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS US UP FOR
LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
/NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ PROVIDE THE REST OF THE SUPPORT. SO...WITH A WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH LATE MON...EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT. FEEL IT WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE DAY THANKS TO THE
MOISTURE FLUX BEING TOP-DOWN PRIMARILY...SO THE LOW LVL DRY AIR
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON
TUE...YIELDING YET ANOTHER ROUND FOR SHOWERS. THE ONE QUESTION
THAT REMAINS IS INSTABILITY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYING ALONG THE SRN
TIER. STILL K-VALUES REACH OVER 30 /LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF MOISTURE/
AND SOME MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF CORRIDOR OF 500J/KG SFC CAPE ON
TUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
POTENTIAL BREAK WHICH MAY YIELD BETTER SFC HEATING. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF TS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUE...BUT LIMIT THE
WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING.
WED AND WED NIGHT...
RIDGING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRES. THE HIGH PASSING TO THE S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL STATUS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO +12C TO +14C.
THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE..AND WHILE THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...IT/S LIKELY SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THU OR FRI WILL YIELD -SHRA INITIALLY...BUT THEN IT
MAY STALL IS IT PARALLELS THE MEAN JET DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS IS
ALONG THE RIM OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE...SO WARM TEMPS ARE
LIKELY...BUT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVE COULD DEVELOP PERIODS OF
WET/UNSTABLE WX AT TIMES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THE EXACT
FRONT PLACEMENT IS RESOLVED...IT/S DIFFICULT TO KNOW TIMING OR HOW
MUCH RAIN WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR ALONG E MA WITH VFR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. THE
GRADUAL TREND FROM 12Z-15Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
ACK...WHICH WILL STAY MVFR LONGER. A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DONE EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 14Z. TREND WILL
BE TOWARD VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY N-NE...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT
LATER IN THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON THE E COAST ESPECIALLY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT NEAR S COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH NIGHT A SERIES OF FRONTS EACH DAY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR WILL
DOMINATE DURING THE DAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S.
WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TODAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSSES THE WATERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WIND WILL DIMINISH
EARLY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS/SEAS. NO HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BUILDING
SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHERE 5-6FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUE...BUT IT MAY TAKE MORE
TIME FOR THE SEAS TO FULLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOG/RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE AROUND 1.65 INCHES AND 1.52 INCHES AT TAMPA. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL 250 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE SW FL COAST WITH THE MID LVL
TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE FL EAST COAST. MID LVL STEERING FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NW-NNW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING AT THE SFC WILL VEER TO THE NE-E INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND NCEP 4KM WRF RUN FOR SPC
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE
CSTL COUNTIES AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 20-30 PCT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST BREEZE MAINLY WEST OF I-95 SOUTH
OF THE CAPE. WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HIGHS MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR
THE INTERIOR. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT EAST
CENTRAL FL BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 14Z. OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS
ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
INLAND 14Z-17Z. ISOLD TSRA JUST WEST OF COASTAL TAF SITES FROM KMLB
SOUTHWARDS 15Z-18Z...BECOMING SCT OVER INTERIOR AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT NW-N FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE-E THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT NEARSHORE TO 2-3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 70 85 73 / 20 10 20 10
MCO 91 71 90 73 / 40 20 30 10
MLB 88 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 88 70 86 74 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 91 73 91 73 / 40 30 40 10
SFB 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 30 10
ORL 90 72 90 74 / 40 20 30 10
FPR 87 69 86 72 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far
northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to
produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty
persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly
approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on
one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per
hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced
flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in
northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through
9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east
with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields
aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is
steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong
enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts
have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent
along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular
to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current
complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly
high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to
occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and
flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease
in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions
through the day.
As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by
afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon
and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However,
expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the
forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected
MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may
spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast
soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight
hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more
strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the
case though based on recent model performance and have maintained
thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with
recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and
flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging
wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area
on the southern flank.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kts. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.
Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue
to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern
half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and
the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that
area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western
U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping
to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at
least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops
over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains,
helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area
and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is
model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary,
ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit
more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away
point for this system is that it will bring another round of
thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional
heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued
flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady
conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
An outflow from thunderstorms near/north of TAF sites will cause
winds to be initially from the north to northeast...with a gradual
turn out of the southeast by late morning. TS will be very close
to TOP and FOE so have a VCTS but can not rule out a stray storm
developing overhead so will monitor closely. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions through the TAF with LLWS conditions developing after
05Z as a southwesterly low level jet increases to 45-50 kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
710 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning.
Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will
keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two
warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper
80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and
tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances
will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest
day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the
upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No
precip is expected during the day on Sunday.
A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri
into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south
late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas
in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging
wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be
best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or
isolated severe storm.
The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the
Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up.
This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the
middle of the week especially across the southern half of the
Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June
next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week
with another chance of widespread showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
After some patchy morning fog pilots can expect VFR conditions at
area terminals today. A few thunderstorms may develop during the
heat of the day but the coverage will be low. Surface winds will
be light through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
917 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER NORTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS MT...WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. PV REMAINS DRAPED ALONG A LVM-GDV LINE...AND
BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ON LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO POP UP BY LATE MORNING IN AREAS SUCH AS BILLINGS AND
MILES CITY. OTHERWISE AS MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER...WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE
WILL NOT SEE THE HEAVY RAINERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.
HAVE TWEAKED MORNING POPS AND SKY AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLD TS
FROM 15-18Z. HIGHS TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCED VERY HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT
FOR POTENTIAL LINGERING FLOODING.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LINGERED WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
EXPECTED. STILL SOME GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS IN THE EAST AND EVEN
DOWN AROUND FORT SMITH AS OF 230 AM THIS MORNING. MAIN SHORT WAVE
ENERGY FROM NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND WE ALSO
HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING ABOUT. THEREFORE...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ODD DUCK SHOWERS HERE AND THERE THIS MORNING. WE
STILL EXPECT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH TODAY WHICH IS CONFIRMED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SO
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TAPERED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AND ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HYDRO NOTES...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WATCHES GOING
UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AT 12Z /6AM/ THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SATURATED AND FLOODED AREAS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS A DRY MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE NEAR
90F IN PLACES. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015.
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS...SO MAINLY
JUST A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS TURN MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN AS
TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. BACKING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO TAP BACK INTO SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH THE ADDITION OF MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
THINGS LOOK DRIER AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED...WITH THE SKIES OPENING UP AT KLVM...KBIL...AND KSHR.
EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 053/080 057/088 060/083 058/077 056/074 053/077
2/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 22/T
LVM 075 048/080 051/086 053/084 054/076 052/072 048/077
3/T 21/U 00/U 02/T 35/T 53/T 22/T
HDN 078 051/082 053/089 057/086 055/079 055/075 053/079
3/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 22/T
MLS 079 054/083 058/089 060/084 058/077 056/074 053/076
2/T 00/U 00/U 01/U 45/T 52/T 21/B
4BQ 075 053/080 055/085 058/083 057/077 056/073 051/074
3/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 53/T 21/B
BHK 077 051/082 053/086 057/082 053/074 052/071 048/072
2/T 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/T 43/T 21/B
SHR 071 048/076 049/084 052/082 053/077 054/070 049/073
5/T 22/T 00/U 01/B 35/T 53/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. SO
CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS
LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95
KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA.
THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM
PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST
EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN)
PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS.
TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z
HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY
DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM.
IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY
70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S
NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT KOMA BTWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AT KOMA AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH KOFK AFTER 0700Z.
THREAT OF HAIL AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS...BUT PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL
WILL BE AT KOMA AND KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY
COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED
ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS
SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY
SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO
1.7 INCH RANGE.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT.
INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY
83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA
IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY
OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE
5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.
POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT
BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY
AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL
MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT
SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD
BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS
SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH
SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO
1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH
STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...
NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY
LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH
RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET.
AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
RADAR AND THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS AZ WILL CROSS COLO AND SET OFF CONVECTION ACROSS ERN COLO
THIS AFTN. THE MODEL SHOWS TSTMS WOULD REACH SWRN NEB AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS
WRN/NCNTL NEB AOA 20Z-22Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA 06Z-08Z TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR 16Z-18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RICH PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THE STATE FROM THE
SW. MODELS ARE FAVORING N AND E AREAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
CENTRAL AREAS FOR CONVECTION WITH NW AREAS FIRING FIRST. ACCORDING
TO THE TRUSTED HRRR MODEL...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS MAY
RESULT IN LARGE DIVERSIONS FROM FLIGHT ROUTES. SOME OF THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS N AND E AREAS...WITH ONLY SPOTTY
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO W AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE E.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...NOT THAT
DIFFERENT A DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVITY FROM WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY...
AGAIN MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ALSO WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH QUARTER OF THE
STATE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY DOWNSIZING THE DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND CHANCES ACROSS WEST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A BIT OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...EARLY TO MID WEEK...IT
BECOMES A STRUGGLE BETWEEN DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM BLANCA TRYING TO COME IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH...EAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM LATE THIS MORN AND ESPEC
THIS AFTN. MODEST DRY AIR INTRUSION MAY TENTATIVELY BEGIN ACROSS
THE SW QUARTER OR SO OF THE FCST AREA...DECREASING COVERAGE A BIT
THERE. BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG OR
PERHAPS LOW END SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NEARLY
ANY SPOT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE
DEGRADED AT LEAST A BIT PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN EXPECTED THERE.
DRIER AIR TO GAIN MORE GROUND IN THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SUN
WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS AT LEAST WEST AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. AGAIN...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. THE DRIER TREND WILL ALSO ALLOW AT LEAST A
MODEST DEGREE OF WARMING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA STILL IS DEPICTED BY MOST
FCST MODELS TO EASE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND SOCAL BETWEEN LATE
MONDAY AND WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD OVER NM. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER OVER
NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO ENCOURAGE
GREATER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NM.
THE NEXT TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH NM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME MOISTURE FROM BLANCA MAY REMAIN...
ENOUGH SO THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. JUST HOW MUCH SO FOR NM IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
SHEARS APART. SOME OF THE RICHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH READINGS FROM 130 TO OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR MORE
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO
THE ARIZONA BORDER. THE FOUR CORNERS AREA COULD ACCUMULATE NEARLY A
HALF INCH OF FRESH PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY THE CASE ELSEWHERE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER DUE TO WEAKER
DYNAMICS AND LESS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLUME. AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...READINGS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGREES MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NE PLAINS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY
BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TILT EVEN FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD FOR AREAS OF
WETTING PRECIPITATION.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA SHOULD TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ AS IT GETS INGESTED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
AREAWIDE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS UPPER LOW WEAKENS
AND TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER. A COLD FRONT MAY
THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH
THE NW FA. ELSEWHERE PCPN MORE ISOLATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR
LANGDON. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NW AND
DECREASING POPS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF
HEAVY RAIN REPORTS WITH THE BAND JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AND RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES SO CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS AND QPF.
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH MT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
NAM AND GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS HAS THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BEST WITH THE
ECMWF AT LEAST AT THE 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE
TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
PRECIP SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN HEAVY OVER WESTERN ND...AND
GIVEN THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF PRECIP BULLSEYE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...THINK SOME HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS AT THIS
POINT. CURRENT WPC QPF HAS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE FFG IS LOWER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY
ONE SPOT TO INCLUDE A WATCH AT THIS POINT.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF AROUND 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GFS
IS A LOT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY...BUT THE RAP SHOWS
SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF WE GET ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP DESTABILIZE...BUT THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING OFF INTO MN BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
FOCUS OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARM 850MB TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.
WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THINK WE WILL
GET SOME SCATTERED PRECIP AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND WITH SUN AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...TEMPS WILL BECOME
QUITE TOASTY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS WELL INTO CANADA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW
AND WILL MONITOR.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK
TO BE VERY WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH THE UPPER LIMIT
ON TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE INFLUENCED ON FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WITH RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL TEMP
PROFILES. SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS
THOUGH.
COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SPREADING EAST ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS...ALTHOUGH HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND...WITH THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BAND. THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS...WITH SOME RECOVERY TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT KEPT MOST SITES WITH VIS ABOVE 6SM BUT WILL WATCH
THOSE THAT GET HEAVIER RAIN WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC
LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF
HEAVY RAIN REPORTS WITH THE BAND JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AND RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES SO CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS AND QPF.
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH MT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
NAM AND GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS HAS THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BEST WITH THE
ECMWF AT LEAST AT THE 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE
TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
PRECIP SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN HEAVY OVER WESTERN ND...AND
GIVEN THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF PRECIP BULLSEYE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...THINK SOME HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS AT THIS
POINT. CURRENT WPC QPF HAS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE FFG IS LOWER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY
ONE SPOT TO INCLUDE A WATCH AT THIS POINT.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
OF AROUND 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GFS
IS A LOT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY...BUT THE RAP SHOWS
SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF WE GET ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP DESTABILIZE...BUT THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING OFF INTO MN BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
FOCUS OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARM 850MB TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.
WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THINK WE WILL
GET SOME SCATTERED PRECIP AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND WITH SUN AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...TEMPS WILL BECOME
QUITE TOASTY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS WELL INTO CANADA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW
AND WILL MONITOR.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOOK
TO BE VERY WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH THE UPPER LIMIT
ON TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE INFLUENCED ON FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...WITH RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL TEMP
PROFILES. SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS
THOUGH.
COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SPREADING EAST ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS...ALTHOUGH HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND...WITH THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BAND. THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS...WITH SOME RECOVERY TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT KEPT MOST SITES WITH VIS ABOVE 6SM BUT WILL WATCH
THOSE THAT GET HEAVIER RAIN WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC
LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS LATE THIS MORNING BUT IN
GENERAL...COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
CEASED. CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ISOLATED
T`STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION BY NOON.
TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW
90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH
AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.
LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL
REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION BY NOON.
TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW
90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH
AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.
LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL
REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANCE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT
TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD
EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE
500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH
ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS
EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT
HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE
06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF
SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION
N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB-
KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS
COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT
LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY
NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST
AREA.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD
THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE
BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY...
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST
WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE
MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER
SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE
THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR.
MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME
CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT
MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS
SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE
GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME
SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND
THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT
FORECAST CONTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F
IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER
THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP
MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST
IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE...MORE JUNE-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOCUS IS CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPO
BOUTS OF IFR DURING HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
KRST IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND KLSE IN THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
WEAKEN WITH AN INLAND WARMING TREND AND GRADUALLY SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER. FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE COULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SLOW COOLING AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MORE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AT WEEKS END.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SOME BUILDING CUMULUS OVER THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE LATEST HRRR DID A GOOD JOB SHOWING THOSE VENTURA COUNTY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT DOES NOT INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY FOR OUR
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEITHER DOES ANY OF THE OTHER HI-
RES MODELS. USING MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND WRF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO DOES NOT INDICATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TODAY.
SOME WARMING IS OCCURRING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT REPLACING IT. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH
THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE HIGHER PRESSURE
ALOFT...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUNDAY...AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN DEPTH...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS.
FOR TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST OF POINT CONCEPTION WHICH WILL HELP CHURN SOME REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH MORE OF THE MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.3 TO NEAR
1.7 INCHES IN OUR AREA. THE END OF THE NAM12 RUN SHOWS SOME 850-300
MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ENTERING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MOISTURE AROUND 50-300 J/KG...AND ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK
GREAT...THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE...VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE
COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION...IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR REGION...IT HAS
TRENDED WEST WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME...BRINGING MORE INTO OUR AREA
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE DECLINE DURING
THIS PERIOD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THEN DEVELOPS INTO AN ELONGATED WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. THIS PATTERN WOULD
BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY SCT/BKN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 21Z WITH BASES
MOSTLY 3000-3500 FT MSL. AREAS OF BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FT
MSL...SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VIS WILL BE BELOW 3
MI IN THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM.
MTNS/DESERTS...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 10000
FT MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
100 PM...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
AND PEAK MONDAY AT 3 FT/16-18 SECONDS. THIS WILL GENERATE ELEVATED
SURF ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GOOD INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR. IT PUSHED IN
FROM IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SIERRA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ELKO COUNTY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5PM TO 11PM THIS
EVENING. WE BUMPED UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECONDARY WAVE.
THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORM CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.LARGE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH STORMS HAVING A FAIRLY QUICK
STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY FROM THE NNE TO SSW DIRECTION FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF MULTIPLE
CELLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING GOOD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 5PM AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES WEST OF THE SIERRA.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES DOWN ON THE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. WARMING ALOFT WILL CAP ANY
CONVECTION THAT STARTS TO GET GOING. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, SO
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVED TO MEDIUM THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
INCREASED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AND SOUTHERN NV. WHILE THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY,
BUT COULD END UP EVEN COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER OR
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS SET UP.
FOR THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PULLS
FARTHER EAST, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
MOSTLY NEAR THE SIERRA. FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV, DRIER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO BUILD IN, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.
FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE BUILDING INTO CA-NV WILL
CONTINUE THE OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT, BUT BY SATURDAY
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BECOME TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21-01Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS THRU THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION AND THE MAIN TERMINALS AS DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR KMMH WHERE ISOLD
CB TOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
109 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS THIS EVENING OF THE VALLEY. POSSIBLE
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE IN
THE VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED MORE VALLEY AREAS WITH SOME MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY
MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROGGED WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW DAYS, ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTORM INTO THE VALLEY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AS RIDGING RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY WITH 70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY PM
ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL MVFR CIGS. A SMALL CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD REACH THE VALLEY THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS
EXCEPT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
909 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING IN THE VALLEY. MAINLY FROM AROUND
OROVILLE SOUTHWARD. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO
THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
MIXTURE OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
ON SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REDUCE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA WHERE SOME ACTIVITY
MIGHT OCCUR WOULD BE ALONG THE CREST FROM AROUND LAKE TAHOE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CREST.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 90S
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO THE 70S AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
REMNANTS FROM CURRENT HURRICANE BLANCA LOOK TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO INDICATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY UNDER THIS WEAK THROUGH. EVEN WITH
TROUGH OVERHEAD...AIRMASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH TO BRING IN
DAYTIMES HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY SO ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE SIERRA ONLY WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS WARMING A BIT MORE.
MODELS VARY ON DETAILS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ALL SHOW SOME SORT
OF WEAK RIDGING AND ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PRECLUDE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 10 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. LCL COASTAL STRATUS IN THE DELTA THROUGH 17Z. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
80+ 250 MB JET ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESES STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY BUT THEN BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BUT STILL IN THE
SLIGHT PROBABILITY CATEGORY. SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AND
FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ONLY DIP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF GCK AND HYS SO
HAVE DECIDE NOT TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 64 83 / 10 20 50 20
GCK 65 91 63 82 / 20 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 62 82 / 20 30 50 30
LBL 66 93 64 84 / 10 30 50 30
HYS 66 89 62 83 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 67 87 / 0 10 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE NAM AND RAP
0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AT 00Z SUNDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIXING DEPTH BETWEEN THE 800MB TO
750MB LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING LITTLE TO NO CAP PRESENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON, DODGE CITY AND GREAT BEND. CAPE VALUES AT
00Z MONDAY FROM THE NAM WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG AND SOME
WEAK 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. BETTER 0-1KM FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARDS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
THE FOCUS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL CENTER
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING. TWO STORM SYSTEMS WITH
NOTABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING
AND ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL COME OUT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. A 60-80 KNOT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
LIFT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE DECENT SIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH WOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS. A LARGE COLD POOL
TIED TO THIS WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PUSH IT
QUICKLY SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 63 TO 66F LIKELY,
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MODEL. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS OUR
REGION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS, THOUGH, REGARDING MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE 500-700MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA QUICKER
THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM, WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT-
INDUCED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WOULD BE CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA. THE POP
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE
GLOBAL MODEL DISCREPANCY.
EVENTUALLY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET AROUND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN ACROSS
COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
PERSIST VERY LONG, THOUGH, WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AGAIN
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DECENT POLAR FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, BUT THE TIMING IS AN ISSUE (WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED FOR A DAY+6 FORECAST). NEVERTHELESS, ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF GCK AND HYS SO
HAVE DECIDE NOT TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 93 64 83 / 10 20 50 20
GCK 65 91 63 82 / 20 30 50 20
EHA 65 90 62 82 / 20 30 50 30
LBL 66 93 64 84 / 10 30 50 30
HYS 66 89 62 83 / 20 30 50 10
P28 68 96 67 87 / 0 10 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Early Saturday morning, yet another MCS was pushing east through far
northern KS. This system has lacked the instability needed to
produce any sort of severe winds , but appears to have a pretty
persistently propagating segment at 30-40 mph with winds possibly
approaching 40 mph at times. The quick propagation is good news on
one hand as the rainfall rates have approached or exceeded 2" per
hour at times and the multiple rounds of rain have likely produced
flash flooding. The heaviest rain so far appears to have fallen in
northern Washington county and has probably topped 3 inches. Through
9 AM on Saturday, expect this complex to continue progressing east
with a bit of a southeast turn owing to a veer in the wind fields
aloft. There is also a band of focused isentropic ascent that is
steadily moving east across the forecast area and has been strong
enough to produce more isolated thunderstorms this AM. RUC forecasts
have been consistent in showing an increase in isentropic ascent
along this area between 4 AM and 8 AM as the LLJ veers perpendicular
to the slope. This may aid in a bit of back-building of the current
complex across northeast KS although confidence is not particularly
high given the current propagation. Regardless, expect heavy rain to
occur this morning in areas that can not handle much more rain and
flash flood potential is high. Do expect this activity to decrease
in coverage over the area by 9 AM followed by mostly dry conditions
through the day.
As temperatures warm up, expect moderate instability to develop by
afternoon. Will need to monitor remnant outflow as a potential focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon
and evening...mainly over the northern half of the area. However,
expect the vast majority of thunderstorms to be focused north of the
forecast area and will be watching the southern flank of an expected
MCS over Nebraska as the outflow and associated convection may
spread south into northern KS once again. Currently, forecast
soundings indicate a more stable MU parcel through the overnight
hours with indications of slightly drier lower levels and more
strongly capped MU parcels. Not going to count on this being the
case though based on recent model performance and have maintained
thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-70 through the night. As with
recent nights, any storms will be capable of heavy rain and
flooding...while there will be some attendant threat for damaging
wind and hail especially if the northern MCS develops into the area
on the southern flank.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Sunday is shaping up to be the next threat for widespread storms
across the outlook area. Models show a mid-level trough skimming
eastward across the northern U.S. on Sunday, deepening across the
north central U.S. as it tracks toward the Great Lakes region into
Sunday night. This advancing trough finally will help to push the
area of surface low pressure that has been lingering west of the CWA
for the last several days eastward across the area, with the
associated cold front slowly tracking into the CWA Sunday morning,
being draped across east central Kansas by Sunday evening. With
strong southwesterly winds ahead of this front, expect decent warm
air advection with afternoon high temperatures surging at least into
the mid 80s and possibly even into the low 90s (depending upon cloud
cover). Expect storms to ignite along this boundary by mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Models are depicting a large
amount of instability in place (possibly upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg)
with 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40kt. These conditions combined
with little in the way of inhibition will set the stage for strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop along this boundary, with forward
propagating vectors looking to be nearly parallel to the boundary.
Damaging winds and large hail will be threats with these storms, but
there is also a concern for heavy rain as PWAT values reach upwards
of around 1.7-1.9 inches. With flooding issues currently ongoing, it
will not take much additional rainfall to spawn the return of
localized flash flooding and cause rivers to rise, so we will need
to monitor this potential very closely. These storms should exit to
the east overnight into Monday morning with dry conditions likely
the remainder of the day as surface high pressure advances into the
area.
Conditions should be dry through Monday night, but models continue
to show a shortwave trough skimming eastward across the southern
half of the CWA on Tuesday, bringing additional thunderstorms and
the potential for more heavy rain as storms may train over that
area. A stronger mid-level ridge will build in across the western
U.S. and track eastward into the central U.S. by mid-week, helping
to bring a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday night through at
least Wednesday night. However, another mid-level trough develops
over the northern Rockies and tracks into the Northern Plains,
helping to push another area of surface low pressure into the area
and an associated cold front through the CWA. However, there is
model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal boundary,
ranging from Friday to Sunday, so the PoP forecast becomes a bit
more uncertain by the latter part of the week. The main take-away
point for this system is that it will bring another round of
thunderstorms to the area as well as the potential for additional
heavy rain, so we will need to be on the look-out for continued
flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect fairly steady
conditions this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
There remains little if any large scale forcing for convection with
the mid level ridge axis overhead. Will need to watch the outflow
boundary around KMHK for an isolated storm or two as peek heating
and localized convergence possibly get a storm to go. Otherwise
anticipate any organized convection to remain north overnight with
the low level jet nosing into eastern NEB and western IA. Models
continue to prog the low level jet strength around 40KT.
Therefore have maintained a mention of LLWS in the forecast. Not
sure the nocturnal inversion will be terribly strong as MOS
guidance keeps surface winds around 10KT, but the chance for LLWS
is there. Think VFR conditions should prevail.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
There are no big changes in the previous forecast this morning.
Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will
keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two
warmer than yesterday. Most areas will reach the middle to upper
80s. The Hi-Res ARW and the HRRR hint at a couple isolated and
tiny showers or storm may develop this afternoon. The rain chances
will be less than 20 percent. Most areas will remain dry and humid.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
Breezy southwest winds will return tomorrow and likely the warmest
day we have seen so far this season. Most areas will be in the
upper 80s and flirt with 90 for the first time this year. No
precip is expected during the day on Sunday.
A frontal boundary will sag southward across northern Missouri
into central Missouri by late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south
late Sunday night through Monday. SPC has the far northern areas
in a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging
wind gusts being the main threats. Thunderstorms chances will be
best area wide on Monday with a marginal risk for a strong or
isolated severe storm.
The frontal boundary will slow down and stall just south of the
Missouri border through the middle of the week before backing up.
This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast through the
middle of the week especially across the southern half of the
Ozarks. Temperatures will remain seasonable for middle of June
next week. Another storm system may affect the area late next week
with another chance of widespread showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. The
remains of a weak front will help produce some isolated
showers/thunderstorms early in the taf period but expected coverage
doesn`t warrant much attention at the fcst sites at this point. A
cold front extending from IA into central KS by late in the taf
period will increase sw winds over the area.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
114 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MCS FROM THIS MORNING MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION/TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS
LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95
KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA.
THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST EVENING WERE FROM
PARTS OF UTAH INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST UP INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. DEWPOINTS OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS. IT WAS NICE TO SEE SOME DATA FROM THE TWO SOUNDINGS LAST
EVENING FROM THE NSSL PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT (PECAN)
PROJECT...ONE IN NEBRASKA AND ONE IN KANSAS.
TODAY...CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SHOW THAT FAIRLY WELL. RUNS PRIOR TO 05Z
HAD MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MORE RECENT RUNS LINGER THE ACTIVITY A BIT LONGER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GENERALLY
DEPICTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SHIFTING INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS 20-40 PERCENT MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HASTINGS TOWARD NORFOLK BY 5 PM.
IF STORMS CAN GET GOING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN VARY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FELT THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW WAS TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
GOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEAR THE BORDERS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN OVERALL. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA. STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL COOL TO MOSTLY
70S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS COOLING DROPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S
NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AT 18Z LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSOURI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO THE
ROUGH LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF FORECAST AREA EXPECT VFR AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION INITIATES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE BROUGHT THUNDER INTO ALL
THREE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IF
STORMS FIRE EARLIER. AFTER 12Z FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DISCERNED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE BIG PLAYERS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
PACIFIC...AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
THE SHERIFF FROM HAYS SPRINGS CALLED THIS EVENING. A LONE FAIRLY
COMPACT THUNDERSTORM WITH A VIL OF 40-45 MOVING AT 15 MPH PRODUCED
ABOUT TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THIS
SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE BUT IT WAS THE ONLY
SUCH STORM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD
CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE PWAT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO
1.7 INCH RANGE.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING
TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
MOVES EAST A BIT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BULK SHEAR BL-9.5KM OF 40-50KT.
INSTABILITY IS GOOD EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTN...HIGHWAY
83. THE REAL GOOD HELICITY 0-1 AND 0-3 KM IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA
IN THE RAP MODEL BUT THIS COULD TOO FAR EAST AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY
OVER-FORECAST THIS PROGRESSION OF THESE FRONTS. THUS THE SPC DAY ONE
5 PERCENT TORNADO FORECAST ACROSS HOLT COUNTY COULD BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.
POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH MIGHT
BE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. THE ARW AND NMM SHOW VERY
AMBITIOUS QPF TOTALS AND ARE THE LONERS OF THE MODEL PACK. OVERALL
MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN VERY CHAOTIC WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR WORKED WELL YESTERDAY. AT 21Z THIS AFTN IT
SHOWS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION OVER WCNTL KS AND ECNTL COLO WHICH WOULD
BE HOURS AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
00Z-03Z. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS
SRN SD. NO STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WHICH
SUPPORT THE FCST FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE 1100J/KG FOR 800MB BASED AND UP TO
1900J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED WITH 45-55KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WITH
STORM MOTION AT300/10KT...THE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...
NEGATIVE EVEN. STILL WITH THOSE SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY
LEVELS...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL THOUGH NOT A HIGH ENOUGH
RISK TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST YET.
AS A BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS FROM THE NORTH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE ROCKIES...A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING SETTING THE SCENE FOR A POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND STALLS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE SIMILAR WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE RESULT IS THAT...AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
TAF FOR KLBF AND KVTN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW DUE
TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST MADE AS
NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...BKN MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM KOGA NORTHWARD TO NEAR KVTN AND KONL. CIGS WILL
RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TS
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
UPDATE...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS LATE THIS MORNING BUT IN
GENERAL...COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
CEASED. CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ISOLATED
T`STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR HAS DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THIS
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT SHOWS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION BY NOON.
TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOMORROW...LIKELY INTO THE LOW
90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGH
AT MEMPHIS BY 3 DEGREES...COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. HOWEVER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES. 950MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 23C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS.
LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH AND WE WILL
REVERT BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN...MUCH LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK...ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE PLAINS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING THE LOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WEST
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MVFR DECK IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AR SHOULD
MIX OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.
12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CAP WILL
HOLD OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. HAVE LEFT THE 18Z TAFS FREE OF
VCTS/TS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MONITOR GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY FOR ANY EARLY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND REALLY THERE WASNT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM SASKATCHEWAN-MT
TROUGH AND UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES WILL WORK OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ELICITS A NICE NORTHWARD
EVOLUTION THE MOIST PLUME AND BRINGS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB REGION FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM GENERATION. THIS AIR MASS HAS 5-6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /STABLE/ AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO LOWER CAPE OVERALL /MAYBE
500 J/KG/. BUT THE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS. HAVE BETTER TIMED THE CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED MORE SW-NE WITH NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING RAIN FIRST.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE QG FORCING FROM THE CANADA TROUGH
ALOFT. THEN CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED RISK OVER WRN IA SHIFTS
EAST A BIT LATER TONIGHT ARRIVING BEFORE SUNRISE IN NERN IA.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FORCING AND THIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE A BROADER BAND OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RATHER THAN A SPLIT TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT A SPLIT WONT
HAPPEN...SIMILAR TO 06.00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH...AND SOUTH INTO I-80 AREA OF IOWA. THE
06.00Z HI RES WINDOWS...NCAR HI RES ENSEMBLE...AND NSSL WRF
SUGGEST A SPLIT. SO...HAVE NOT BUMPED THE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
80 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO DONT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VARIATION
N-S ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN CHANCES TO SUGGEST A SPLIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WAVES OVER MT-SD-NEB-
KS AT 09Z...AS THEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY EXIST...THIS
COULD ENHANCE SOME LATER AFTERNOON EARLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE AROUND 700 MB. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS CAPE IN THAT
LAYER AROUND 100 J/KG....ENOUGH FOR SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONFIRM SIM RADAR ECHO FROM THIS EARLY PRE-MAIN EVENT FORCING. MAY
NEED AN EARLIER RAIN CHANCE RAMP UP IN THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST
AREA.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SO LOW...WOULD
THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THEN HIGHER CAPE WOULD STAND THE
BEST CHANCE. IF THE FRONT SLOWS...MAYBE THE BEST CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM IS ACROSS SWRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPON INITIATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY...
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN PRESSES EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK 6-7F WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE AND NEARLY NEUTRAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST
WI BY LATER AFTERNOON...BASICALLY SWRN WI AND SOUTH. PROVIDED THE
MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPE
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND RE-INITIATION OVER
SOUTHERN WI IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH A MID-RANGE
THUNDER CHANCE DOWN IN GRANT COUNTY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AROUND LONG AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE MINOR.
MONDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE PERIOD.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SOME
CAPE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER WI. WITHOUT ANY CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZING LIFT
MECHANISM WOULD BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AT MID-LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS
SEEM TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY OF AN EARLY DAY FORCING...BUT THE
GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI. CUD SEE SOME
SCT TSRA MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THOSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET. ALSO...MIXING DEPTHS ARE 2-3 KM AGL AND
THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN CURRENT
FORECAST CONTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD THAT COULD HOLD SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT 90F
IN LA CROSSE. THIS HAS SOME UNDERPINNINGS OF A MORE CLASSIC HOTTER
THAN EXPECTED DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEP
MIXING...AND AFTERNOON FULL SUN SHOULD THE TIMING HOLD. FORECAST
IS ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CANADA...BUT THE
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE FRONT TO DRAW NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO EJECT/DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
FOCUS FOR ANY AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERS ON TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION NEXT 24 HOURS.
FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT IMPULSES TO
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION. LACK OF TRUE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES BUT
COULD SEE WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVE IN BY EVENING WITH STRONGER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSES. KEPT IN WINDOW OF
STORM RISK BUT BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STILL COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
338 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY. RECEIVED A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL WHEN THE
STORMS WERE WEST OF CHEYENNE. CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN XXX COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO
CHEYENNE COUNTY. WITH SFC WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFN...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT 25-30 K`S. BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS INTO COLORADO. THUS...WITH THESE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SIR STORM AS THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD SIR EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE BLACK HILLS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD XXX AND AWES COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE FROM THIS
OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING FROM 00-03Z. SINCE NORTHERN XXX AND AWES RECEIVED QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THERE IS CREEK/RIVER FLOODING...THIS IS
DEFINITELY AN AREA THAT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE CST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFN. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF A STRONG/SIR THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ARMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. DO HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWFA FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE WEST.
NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WE START
GETTING PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
EMANATING OFF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND LAYS UP NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS AT 850MBWHILE ECMWF SHOWING 20 TO
25KTS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CONDITIONS DO LOOK GOOD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HEALTHY QPF FORECASTS...SO DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL THERE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LATEST HRRR USED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF CREEK FLOODING IN THE TRIBUTARIES TO
THE NORTH OF THE WHITE RIVER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAYS HEAVY
RAINS IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT AT SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SVR THREAT
STILL LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL THIS AFTN AS THE SFC TROUGH IS JUST
EAST OF THE CWA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LOW INVOF SOUTHEAST
CA/SOUTHERN NV WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
CO AND WY. A WAVY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED
INTO EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS. CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE SEVERAL HOURS AGO MOVED NORTHEAST INTO
SD. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED FROM THE SOUTH LARAMIE
RANGE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES
ITS NORTHEAST TREK TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE OVER UT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CO INTO
SOUTHERN WY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST THIS MORNING
THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL/SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHEAST CO WITH 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO. STILL A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000J/KG. MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S TO
AROUND 80.
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS/TSTORMS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING
AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. MONDAY
WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT REBOUND
TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH HOT TEMPS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MAINLY
OROGRAPHICALLY BASED... DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING. RIDGING OVERHEAD LOOKS TO SUPPRESS THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS...HOWEVER A FEW MODERATE STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITHIN
MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE GFS BRINGS A
STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A POSITIVELY ORIENTED TROUGH WITH OVERALL WEAKER ENERGY
ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING CONTINUED TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKS END. AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL
COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
LATEST HRRR USED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING FELL ACROSS
FLOOD-STRICKEN NIOBRARA...AS WELL AS SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
SLOW TO RECEDE...WITH MINOR FLOODING STILL A CONCERN TODAY. ROADS
INTO AND OUT OF LUSK REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. THE NIOBRARA
RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH WITH STANDING WATER ON HIGHWAY 20 EAST
OF LUSK TO VAN TASSEL AND THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. HIGHWAY 270
NORTH OF MANVILLE IS ALSO CLOSED. FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAY`S STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED WEST OF NIOBRARA COUNTY.
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT MITCHELL...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER LATE THIS WEEK. THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THIS WEEKEND...CRESTING AT 8.2 FEET EARLY MONDAY. SARATOGA`S
FORECAST YESTERDAY PREDICTED THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER TO
CREST JUST ABOVE THE ACTION STAGE MONDAY. THESE FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH MORE RAINFALL AND INCREASED RESERVOIR
RELEASES AT GUERNSEY AND GLENDO.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ/TJT