Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING
IN NORTH ARKANSAS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE
HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF
ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM
AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO
REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY
AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 64 86 69 86 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 64 89 67 92 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 65 85 67 86 / 10 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 89 71 91 / 10 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 89 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 87 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 66 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 64 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 68 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A RARE EARLY JUNE RAIN
EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY. RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANDRES NY A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST BROUGHT A
RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (FOR EARLY JUNE) TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE (PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH) AND DECENT LIFT FROM A 40-50KT JET
MAX ROTATING INTO THE REGION PRODUCED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS SAW
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...MOST PLACES SAW GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO HELPED TO
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE 80S AND RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES
MODEL RUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO GILA AND EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL COUNTIES
BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...HAVE MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND DROP HIGH TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A PRETTY
CLOUDY DAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FROM JUST EAST OF YUMA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
GRADUALLY THICKENED AND NOW IS PROVIDING FAIRLY OVERCAST SKIES IN A
NARROW BAND...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CENTERED NEAR KSFO HAS HELPED TO PULL UP THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
WHAT WAS PART OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO
NORTHEAST ARIZONA IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET...AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS STARTED SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. AT THIS POINT...THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY RESULTING IN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES DUE TO VERY DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY QUITE WELL AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND THEN MORE STEADY RAIN BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING IS A FAIRLY NARROW RAIN BAND WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF PHOENIX...AFFECTING MOSTLY GILA AND PINAL
COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE
00-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ABOVE AN INCH AND VALUES OF IVT ARE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AND GIVEN THAT IT HAS NEVER RAINED ON JUNE 5TH IN
PHOENIX...ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ALONG WITH SPC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BREEZY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAR
WEST AS MARICOPA COUNTY AS STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS
IN AN AREA OF VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY...THOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
A RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AGAIN HELPING TO PROPEL THE
REMAINS OF DISSIPATING TC BLANCA NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO POINTS TO THE INCEPTION OF THE
MONSOON HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AT LEAST SOME INFLUX OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO AZ. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARDS
THE 60TH PERCENTILE OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE...WHICH MORE OR LESS
EQUATES TO ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT TUESDAY-THURSDAY...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...SHED FROM FORMER HURRICANE
ANDRES...CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL RESULT IN THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT CIGS
TO DEVELOP AND LOWER TO AROUND 10-12K FEET BY EARLY EVENING AND
SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE ATMOSPHERE WETS UP FROM
ABOVE. WILL LIKELY INITIALLY SEE VIRGA INCREASING IN COVERAGE...AND
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS PRECIP REACHES THE
GROUND. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 8K FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW 6K FEET THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIM THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...FOR NOW WE WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ISOLD STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z OR SO TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25KT POSSIBLE. WINDS TO DECREASE AND TRANSITION BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-12KT RANGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SKIES BECOMING GENLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT AT TIMES...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KBLH THROUGH 03Z OR
SO...DIMINISHING AFTERWARD AND BECOMING RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
12Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAKENING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE OVER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TO STAY BELOW 15 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BOTH DAYS WITH
JUST A BIT OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE BLANCA MAY MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE
AREA...AND LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH
CONDITIONS EACH DAY MAY BE UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS EACH DAY BUT MAY FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY SHOULD
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ELEVATED EACH DAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS RUNNING ABOVE 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PRECHA/KUHLMAN/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1002 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORCAL. CLOUD BUILD
UPS ARE GETTING GOING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTH INTO
EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE FOCUSED IN THESE AS SHOW BY SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORCAL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S
AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IS PRESENTLY APPROACHING 130W AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NORCAL TONIGHT, THEN CLOSE-OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
UPSWING IN MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE CLOSED LOW THAT DROPPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS NEVADA AND EXTEND
BACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WRAPAROUND EAST TO NORTHEAST UPPER
FLOW WILL STILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY LOOK TO BE IN PLAY. A SECONDARY LOW THEN
DEVELOPS OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN PLACE OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT.
TRAJECTORIES OF THESE TYPES TO CUTOFF LOWS ARE DIFFICULT, SO STAY
TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HINGE ON RESULTING CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE, BUT WILL GENERALLY
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO DO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. 60%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY (MAINLY
KSAC/KMHR)THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...UP TO 12 KTS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1001 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SEVERE/FLOOD EVENT IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FROM DENVER
NORTHWARD TO LOVELAND WITH PERSISTENT AND STATIONARY STORMS. WORST
AREAS ARE FROM LYONS TO BERTHOUD BUT CONTINUOUS NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH AND WEST DENVER. LATEST HRRR HAS STORMS
POTENTIALLY GOING THROUGH 07-09Z OVER THESE SAMES AREAS SO EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING EVENT. ALSO STILL SEEING SOME LARGE
HAIL REPORTS AS WELL ACROSS NORTH DENVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
STORMS JUST STARTING TO GET ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL
ISOLATED STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CYS RIDGE AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO ELBERT COUNTY. A BIT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
DOUGLAS AND INTO WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
INITIAL STORMS AND POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADOES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL
BE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK
E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ABLE TO HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
FROM 2000-3000J/KG. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THIS
AFTERNOON VS YESTERDAY AS AREA STILL UNDER SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK RIDGING. STILL ANY STORMS THAT DO GO HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO GO WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT LATER ON DUE TO SOME WEAK
ASCENT MOVING INTO COLORADO AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
SHOULD SEE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND STREAMS IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF BIG LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. PW VALUES
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS NEAR AN INCH WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. STILL AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH
CAPE VALUES STILL FROM 1000-2000J/KG. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE ALTERNATING DAYS WITH
SATURDAY BEING SLIGHTLY DRIER SO A BIT LESS ACTIVITY...THEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING...INCREASED
MOISTURE...AND PROBABLY MORE INSTABILITY AGAIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE LIGHTER...ALREADY EVIDENCED BY SLOWER STORM MOTIONS TODAY...SO
WE WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SLOW-MOVING OR BACK-BUILDING STORMS. WITH
WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. STILL
SOME SEVERE THREAT AS WELL...BUT LESS OF A RISK THAN THE HAIL
FESTS OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
BY MON THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE STARTING TO DECREASE AS THERE
IS SOME RIDGING TO OUR WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HAD CONSISTENT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS...WITH THE EC BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE
RIDGING CUTS OFF OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY AND PROVIDES A MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
AGAIN...BUT STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WITH A BIT MORE SHEAR
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS AND PROBABLY SOME RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THESE DRIER DAYS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE MOST SUPPRESSED DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS
IS OVER US...THEN WE START TO GET SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MORE
SHEAR AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. STILL LOOKING FAIRLY DRY FOR
THURSDAY THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER BJC/DEN AT LEAST THROUGH 05Z POSSIBLY
UP TO 07-09ZS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT LATER TNT BUT STRATUS/FOG A POSSIBILITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS NOW WITH STATIONARY STORMS ACROSS
DENVER...BOULDER...SOUTHEAST LARIMER COUNTIES. RAINFALL ESTIMATES
FROM RADAR UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LYONS TO BERTHOUD. FLASH
FLOOD EMERGENCY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHEAST BOULDER
COUNTY UNTIL 4 AM MDT. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATER ISSUES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1046 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ONLY CLOUDS ARE A FEW CIRRUS
RACING OVERHEAD AND A FEW Q DOWN IN SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS OF 130
PM. WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 90
ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE SOME ISOLD TSRA THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE Q WERE DEVELOPING ALREADY
OVER FAR SE LAS ANIMAS AS OF 130. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE OF CO BY EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO OTHER
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE FAR SE PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
PALMER DVD BY SUNRISE.
TOMORROW...
OVERALL...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE NM BORDER BY
LATE MORNING AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS UPSLOPE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH A 2NDRY FRONT THAT...FOR THE MOST
PART...WILL REMAIN N OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.
LIKEWISE...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO HAPPEN IN OUR CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD. SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN
ALL THE INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHWARD...MOST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS N EL
PASO...N OTERO AND N KIOWA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY. IF STORMS
DO INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...NAM GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3500 J/KG OVER
NE KIOWA COUNTY AT 00Z TOMORROW.
I NEED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IF THE 2NDRY FRONT DOES SURGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY EARLY THU
MORNING. TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUSH WESTWARD INTO CO...WITH NAM CAPES OF
3-4K J/KG NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WED EVENING. HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST TERRAIN FORCED TSRA
DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING. NAM DOES HINT AS SOME TSRA FORMING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE WED NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN PLACE FOR
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOST PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT WED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 40 KTS)
ON THU...FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NM BORDER EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS WAITING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION UNTIL THU EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
HUNCH IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT MAY GIVE THE FRONT A BIGGER
SOUTHWARD SHOVE THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE MARGINAL IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AND WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN
36-48 HR RANGE TO BETTER REFINE BOTH SEVERE THREAT AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LOW
PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHEARING
NORTHEAST LATE SUN/MON. STILL SOME THREAT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...THOUGH 12Z MODELS AREN`T
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY MOVING THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA
NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION REGARDING POSITION OF COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
FRONT DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF WAS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AREA-WIDE
FRI...THEN AGAIN SUN/MON AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
STRENGTHENS. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SLOPES IF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
PLAINS CAN BE PUSHED WESTWARD BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. FORECAST IS RATHER BROAD BRUSHED WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS
THROUGH TUE...WHICH LOOKS OK FOR NOW. TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON CONVECTION...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREE OF EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY TO THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AREA BY 06Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT LOBE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WHICH WAS ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER TN/GA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT HAS SPREAD OVER THE
PENINSULA...BUT MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL HAD PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE VORT LOBE SHOULD MOVE SLOW ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
MORNING CLOUDINESS LINGERED BUT POCKETS OF HEATING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL PATTERN HAS QUITE LIGHT WINDS AS WESTERN END
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS SEAWARD OF THE AREA AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE YUCATAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...SO EVEN THOUGH THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED BY MORNING CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
INLAND PROGRESS TO PUSH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN NOT DEVELOPING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIRRORS THE GFS OUTPUT. WITH
THE VORT LOBE SLIDING THROUGH THAT AREA...HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN TO
30 PERCENT WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF. WILL LEAVE
LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE VFR CEILINGS BUT LOCAL MVFR AS DAYTIME
HEATING CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OR JUST INLAND FROM THEM. NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE DRYING ALOFT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
STILL DEVELOP INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN E/SE DURING
THE DAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...SO
NO WIND/SEAS PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THE CAPE NORTHEASTWARD
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
PUSH UP FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
522 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING
SOME HIGH LEVEL DRYING BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A "MESSY" SITUATION THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOT
UNEXPECTED TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MOIST COLUMN AND SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONIC FLOW (IN JUNE) TO AID IN ASCENT. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANCE
POPS REGION-WIDE TO START OUT THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS
WILL ONLY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. A
MORE SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS PIVOTING NORTHWARD FROM
HARDEE/DESOTA/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN POLK. THESE AREAS
WILL BE THE WET ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS POCKET OF
MORE STEADY RAIN SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIME AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SHOWS
THIS UPGLIDE REGIME BECOMING ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE THESE SHOWERS.
AT THE SURFACE WE SEE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH OF OUR ZONES SEEING A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WE WILL SLOWLY SEE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE AXIS WILL PASS BY MIDDAY AROUND
H5...BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO PASS FURTHER ALOFT.
STILL...A SLOW DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 10KFT
SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT ANY LINGERING SYNOPTIC SUPPORTED SHOWERS.
WILL ALSO GO FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MOST SPOTS TO MORE AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LATER IN THE DAY...A
SCATTERING OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS & STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP.
IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THESE STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP AND THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS AT MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY HAVE
TO BE TRIMMED BACK IF THE DRY AIR ADVECTION ENDS UP MORE
AGGRESSIVE.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL IN NATURE AS
WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MUCH DRIER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD COMPARED TO
EARLY THIS MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE STORMS TRYING TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BUT STRUGGLING TO GROW INTO THE DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT WITH A FAVORABLE EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME...WILL GIVE A FEW STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT...SO
TO SPEAK...AND FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND FINALLY WASHES OUT THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...DISRUPTED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK GENERALLY EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
ABLE TO UTILIZE AMPLE MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
INCHES OR MORE FROM INTERSTATE 4 SOUTHWARD) TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A BOOST IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UP TO 2 INCHES...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH A BKN-OVC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. IF THIS MID-LEVEL DECK CAN HOLD THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND BELIEVE IT WILL...THEN IT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CIG/VIS ISSUES. BEST SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH ALL TERMINALS SEEING THE RISK
FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE GRADIENT FOR
OUR FORECAST WATER TO THE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAK AND
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
FOG IMPACT...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 30 30
FMY 88 72 91 74 / 60 20 40 30
GIF 89 71 91 73 / 30 20 40 20
SRQ 86 72 88 74 / 30 20 20 30
BKV 89 69 91 70 / 30 30 30 30
SPG 87 75 90 77 / 40 20 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY
THIS MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP IS INCLUDED FOR ALL THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z FOR TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. APART FROM THE PROB GROUP, VCTS IS INCLUDED AT APF AFTER
10Z TODAY. THE MOISTURE DECREASES LATER ON IN THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS AFTER 04Z ON THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
UPDATE...
EARLIER HVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR HAVE WEAKENED. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH REGARDS
TO HVY RAIN/STORMS ARRIVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A FEW MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING LATE, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THE COASTAL
HVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS STAY JUST OFF THE COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO WELL OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. GREATEST PWATS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH AMOUNTS AOA 2" PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND NASA SPORT IMAGES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DECENT
VORT MAX WAS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MOSTLY
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING,
HOWEVER WITH LIFT INCREASING AS THE SHRTWV NEARS THE PENINSULA,
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE PM AND THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
EAST AND THE GREATER PWATS WILL COME WITH IT OVERNIGHT. WITH
MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM SW TO NE, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, MAY SETUP RIGHT ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. LIKE YESTERDAY,
THE ECMWF PLACES THE QPF MAX OFFSHORE, WHERE THE GFS, WHICH MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, PUTS SOMEWHAT GREATER QPF
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF PRECIP PROBS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS HEAVY AMOUNTS. THUS, OP GFS DOESN`T HAVE
MUCH SUPPORT AMONG THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE FOR WED. THE
BEST CHC FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR URBAN FLOODING WOULD COME WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BE QUITE
DIFFICULT CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED
TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME PWAT VALUES WILL BE OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL EASILY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH POPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE H3 LOW WILL DEEPEN AGAIN AND RELOAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FULCRUM BETWEEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/HVY
RAINFALL OR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY ALBEIT WEAK BY LATE WEEKEND,
THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WITH COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS/SEABREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS. THE PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE OVER TEXAS TRIES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND JOIN FORCES WITH A CLOSED H5
HIGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, FORCING THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH.
MARINE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM, AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE YUCATAN THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
VARIABLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A
BIT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WED AND THURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTH
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT 5-15 KTS. MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 89 74 / 70 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 88 76 / 80 50 50 40
MIAMI 84 74 89 76 / 80 50 50 40
NAPLES 85 74 89 75 / 60 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
515 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT...BUT STILL WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE
UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED LI/S REMAIN NEAR -4 IN THE
CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND. THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ALSO FAVORS HAIL.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FA
DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY DECREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. LOW CIGS
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS THAT HAS
OCCURRED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY FARTHER NORTH. ALSO...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THIS AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -4 IN THE CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND.
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ALSO FAVORS HAIL.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FA
DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY DECREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. LOW CIGS
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
238 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AS
CONVECTIVE TOPS APPROACH 35K FT NEAR THE NV BORDER AS OF 2 PM.
RADAR WAS SHOWING EXPANDING ECHOES FROM SE OWYHEE THROUGH TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES....WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES APPROACHING JARBIDGE AS
OF 2 PM. S-CENTRAL IDAHO IS WHERE GFS SHOWS 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR AND -4C LI WITH THE RAP INDICATING SOME CAPE TO 400J/KG...FOR
A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LIFT EXITS THE
AREA TO THE NE LEAVING THE INTERSTATE-84 CORRIDOR FROM BAKER TO
TWIN FALLS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. AREAS ALONG THE NV BORDER NEARER
THE LOW WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATE
SHOWER THERE. THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS SW IDAHO AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS SE OREGON EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER. SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES OF THE NV BORDER
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MAINLY EAST
OF A MCCALL- IDAHO CITY LINE...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE PRECIP-FREE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE A SURGE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING HAS VARIED AND HOW MUCH PRECIP AND
WHERE THE MAX WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN STILL. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WORK
AROUND THE LOW FROM OFFSHORE ON THE SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON UP OVER NV THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS. THIS COULD FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...OR IF
UPPER SUPPORT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE MAX COULD END UP OVER
S-CENTRAL OR CENTRAL IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLE TO TONE DOWN SOME INCH IN
ABOUT 12 HR VALUES SEEN IN SOME RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRIDAY DUE
TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES /AROUND 0.7 INCHES/ AND SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENTS /10-15 MPH/.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO STAY ROUGHLY STATIONARY OVER NEVADA AND SLOWLY GET
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL TO TAP INTO AND BRING NORTH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH /NOW HURRICANE/ BLANCA. AT THE SAME TIME... AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR AND BE SLIGHTLY
FOLDED OVER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT. THE BORDER OF INFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES /LAYING
NW TO SE/ WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA SEES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...BUT LEFTOVER
MOISTURE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNSET AND BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 15 KTS OR
LESS...BUT GUSTY UP TO 35 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WEST 10 KTS...THEN AFTER 04/10Z...SOUTHEAST 10-15
KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND WINDSHIFT FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
COMBINATION OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NOTED DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL LIKLEY BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY 05-06Z ACROSS
CHICAGO TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK BEHIND
IMMEDIATE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND SOME
VARIABILITY LINGERING IN DIRECTION. LATEST RAP/HRR/NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A STRONGER PUSH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...COOLER AIR
AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD 11-12Z. HAVE
ADJUSTED TAFS ALONG THIS LINE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSHED LOWER CIGS BACK TOWARD MORNING.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 00Z...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN STATE EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
WI AND NORTHERN IL...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND BECOMING STRONGER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF DETAILS IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO VFR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
NOT INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELD...AND 21Z
AMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING FROM MDW DEPICTS CAP AROUND 800 MB AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS...AND
MAINTAINS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THE
EVENING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK OVERALL FORCING FOR ANY
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND SHIFT TIMING...MEDIUM ON CIG TRENDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
851 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIGHT SSW WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND SHIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND WINDSHIFT FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN STATE EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
WI AND NORTHERN IL...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND BECOMING STRONGER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF DETAILS IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO VFR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
NOT INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELD...AND 21Z
AMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING FROM MDW DEPICTS CAP AROUND 800 MB AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS...AND
MAINTAINS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THE
EVENING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK OVERALL FORCING FOR ANY
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT TIMING AND CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIGHT SSW WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND SHIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND WINDSHIFT FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN STATE EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
WI AND NORTHERN IL...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND BECOMING STRONGER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF DETAILS IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO VFR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
NOT INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELD...AND 21Z
AMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING FROM MDW DEPICTS CAP AROUND 800 MB AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS...AND
MAINTAINS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THE
EVENING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK OVERALL FORCING FOR ANY
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT TIMING AND CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, BUT CLEAR
SKIES LOSING GROUND TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MORE LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CU FIELD DEVELOPED EARLY AND RATHER DENSE ON SAT
IMAGERY. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AND ADJUSTED
THE HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST,
HOWEVER, SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY/THE SFC RIDGE. HRRR REMAINS LARGELY DRY ON THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH FOR A BKN CU FIELD...BUT THE CIRRUS STARTING TO BLOCK SOME
OF THE HEATING IN THE WEST...CONCENTRATING THE CU IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. CLEARING OF THE CU EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE DAY, AND SCT/BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE. WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR
REDUCED VIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, BUT CLEAR
SKIES LOSING GROUND TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MORE LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CU FIELD DEVELOPED EARLY AND RATHER DENSE ON SAT
IMAGERY. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AND ADJUSTED
THE HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST,
HOWEVER, SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY/THE SFC RIDGE. HRRR REMAINS LARGELY DRY ON THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
HELPED PRODUCE MORNING FOG AND/OR MVFR CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AFFECT
PIA, SPI, DEC AND CMI THROUGH 14Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS REFORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING WEST OF I-55. STORMS APPROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH
WESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING NEAR PEORIA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THE PIA TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10KT OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
HELPED PRODUCE MORNING FOG AND/OR MVFR CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AFFECT
PIA, SPI, DEC AND CMI THROUGH 14Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS REFORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING WEST OF I-55. STORMS APPROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH
WESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING NEAR PEORIA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THE PIA TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10KT OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY
SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER IOWA. IF
THIS COMES ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE COMMON HABIT OF CONVECTION IN
SUCH SITUATIONS FOLLOWING THICKNESSES...IT WONT GET NEAR INDIANA
TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH NOW PREDICT A DRY
NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WERE DRY TO BOOT. NOTHING
SUPPORTS RAIN ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT WAS
BASED ON A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS
ON THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL MAIN FEATURES ARE CAPTURED WELL.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SET TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SWINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ANY SURFACE HEATING IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZE. WHILE BL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WAVE AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE FINE ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY PULSE IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES. HELD CLOUD COVER UP JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. IN TIME THOUGH...A DRIER E/NE FLOW SHOULD ERODE
THE INVERSION WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER 850MB JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL PRESENT A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...FIRST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAVMOS GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH E/NE WINDS
BUT STILL A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SNEAKY WARM FOR THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE INTO
THE 18-19C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER INTO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING SITES WHERE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT TOMORROW MORNING AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT REMAIN AT VFR LEVEL.
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...THUS CONDUCIVE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
938 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A SIGNIFICANT REVISION HAS BEEN DONE TO THE FORECAST.
RADAR TRENDS...IN COMBINATION OF WHAT SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING AND 00Z UA DATA...SUPPORT GOING DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AROUND KMCI AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SHOULD SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE AND COMBINE OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS ALONG WITH FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO THEM
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA OR AT THE VERY WORST BRUSHING PARTS
OF SCOTLAND/CLARK COUNTIES IN MISSOURI TOWARD MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION EAST OF KFSD IS A
CONCERN. RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SHOW IT AS OVERLY ROBUST AND
WEAKENING WITH SUNSET.
SO MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF TRENDS FROM
THE RAP CONTINUE...THAT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN
DRY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 23Z AND FROM THE 18Z UKMET/GFS/WRF...
INCLUDING TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL...DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS.
THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHERE WILL THE NEW MCS TRACK. MCS TOOL
APPLIED TO SEVERAL MODELS IS SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE
UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SYNOPSIS...QUIET DAY ACROSS THE DVN CWA TODAY BUT DEFINITELY WARM
AND HUMID WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA AND EXTENDED FROM
THE KS/NE BORDER TO CENTRAL MO WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WAS WEAKENING ACROSS MO BUT WAS STRENGTHENING IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN NORTHERN KANSAS SBCAPES WERE AS HIGH AS
5000 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM HELICITIES OF 500 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IGNITE A
SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MCS WILL THEN TRACK/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. ONCE AGAIN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE
MCS WILL TRACK. THE HRRR/ARW HI-RES MESO MODELS AND THE NAM KEEPS
THE MCS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS BRINGS IT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOCAL MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES THE MCS
WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER PWATS. I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE SOUTH BUT ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A DECREASING TREND IN POPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF NOW THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
MCS AND ASSUMING IT EVEN IMPACTS THE DVN CWA IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
DEPARTING MCS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LOWERING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN OUR
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS ASSUMING THE
MCS IMPACTS THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
CONCERN TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WITH COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE PAST FEW NIGHTS OF CONVECTION
ILLUSTRATE BL TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO QUICK CONVECTION INITIATION
AND THEN TOO FAR TO THE INFLOW OR SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUPPORTS MATURE
CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT
SUNDAY LATE PM.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL DISPLACING MOST CONVECTION TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH...OR INFLOW SIDE. PERSISTENCE AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SUPPORTS
A 60/40 MIX OF GFS WITH HI-RES ECMWF.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY TO DRY WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY. MINS MIDDLE 50S NE TO LOWER 60S IN SW SECTIONS AND HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY POPS WITH BEST CHANCES OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. LOW RISK
OF SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LATE AT NIGHT. MINS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SUNDAY...COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH SUNSHINE TO BE REACHED AROUND 3 TO 4 PM
WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 TO RECEIVE STORMS
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 1500+ TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR ISOLATED 1
INCH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH BASED ON T/TD OF 85/65
OR MORE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK NW FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR IN
THE 80 TO 85+ RANGE AND LOWS MOSTLY 60 TO 65+ RANGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE
55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/05. AFT 06Z/05 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFT 12Z/05 A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. KBRL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A POTENTIAL TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AFT 12Z/05 BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 23Z AND FROM THE 18Z UKMET/GFS/WRF...
INCLUDING TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL...DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS.
THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHERE WILL THE NEW MCS TRACK. MCS TOOL
APPLIED TO SEVERAL MODELS IS SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE
UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SYNOPSIS...QUIET DAY ACROSS THE DVN CWA TODAY BUT DEFINITELY WARM
AND HUMID WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA AND EXTENDED FROM
THE KS/NE BORDER TO CENTRAL MO WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WAS WEAKENING ACROSS MO BUT WAS STRENGTHENING IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN NORTHERN KANSAS SBCAPES WERE AS HIGH AS
5000 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM HELICITIES OF 500 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IGNITE A
SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MCS WILL THEN TRACK/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. ONCE AGAIN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE
MCS WILL TRACK. THE HRRR/ARW HI-RES MESO MODELS AND THE NAM KEEPS
THE MCS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS BRINGS IT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOCAL MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES THE MCS
WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER PWATS. I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE SOUTH BUT ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A DECREASING TREND IN POPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF NOW THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
MCS AND ASSUMING IT EVEN IMPACTS THE DVN CWA IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
DEPARTING MCS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LOWERING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN OUR
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS ASSUMING THE
MCS IMPACTS THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
CONCERN TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WITH COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE PAST FEW NIGHTS OF CONVECTION
ILLUSTRATE BL TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO QUICK CONVECTION INITIATION
AND THEN TOO FAR TO THE INFLOW OR SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUPPORTS MATURE
CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT
SUNDAY LATE PM.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL DISPLACING MOST CONVECTION TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH...OR INFLOW SIDE. PERSISTENCE AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SUPPORTS
A 60/40 MIX OF GFS WITH HI-RES ECMWF.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY TO DRY WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY. MINS MIDDLE 50S NE TO LOWER 60S IN SW SECTIONS AND HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY POPS WITH BEST CHANCES OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. LOW RISK
OF SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LATE AT NIGHT. MINS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SUNDAY...COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH SUNSHINE TO BE REACHED AROUND 3 TO 4 PM
WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 TO RECEIVE STORMS
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 1500+ TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR ISOLATED 1
INCH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH BASED ON T/TD OF 85/65
OR MORE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK NW FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR IN
THE 80 TO 85+ RANGE AND LOWS MOSTLY 60 TO 65+ RANGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE
55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/05. AFT 06Z/05 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFT 12Z/05 A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. KBRL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A POTENTIAL TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AFT 12Z/05 BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
STUBBORN STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM A NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST LOW.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING A 925-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-
RES CAMS TAKE AN MCS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TRACK ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z HRRR DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z. THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE
850MB WARM NOSE/MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD POP GRID GRADIENT GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES
THAT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES RANK IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE BASED ON OAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDS INCREASING FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONSIDERATIONS NEEDED FOR BOTH
MESO SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MAIN FEATURES TO
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
EDGE EAST WITH TIME. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MOVING EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK H700 WAVE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND 36 HOURS BEGINS TO DIMINISH...AS EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY ALTER THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H850 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA. MESO NMM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWARD
DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE EURO KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TREND FOR NOW. THROUGH FRIDAY THE EURO CONTINUES THE TREND
FOR MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER...WHILE THE GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT/THUNDER OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HIGH MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT H850 IS
HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z FRIDAY. GFS
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO ARE ON THE RISE...IN A RANGE OF 11KFT TO NEAR
13KFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE GFS MAY NOT BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR ITS MORE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF STORM FEATURES...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE GFS WITH ITS MORE
NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OVER IOWA IS SHOWING 4.25 TO 4.75 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE EURO HAS ONLY
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER VALUES SOUTH OF US34. THE EURO
HAS ITS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FROM NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN
MO. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS. FOR NOW HYDRO SITUATION CAN TAKE A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE REMAINS AT 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
ANY TIME...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOCAL URBAN RUNOFF EFFECTS
OR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES. GIVEN TODAYS UNCERTAINTY OF
EVOLUTION OF MESO/SYNOPTIC FEATURE INTERACTIONS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
MILD...75 TO 85 RANGE...WITH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAINY PATTERN WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA TO SPREAD ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE...STILL GREATER CERTAINTY OF THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.
KRC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
KRC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EXTREMELY CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST...WITH ONLY LAST NIGHTS
ARW-EAST MODEL HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IT SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF KEMP MID AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTION EXPANDING/DEVELOPING ON BOTH SIDES OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SO KSLN/KHUT WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY AREAS FOR STORMS.
HOWEVER INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AT KHUT. MUCH MORE LIKELY STORMS WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AS
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVERGENCE FROM
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KRSL/KSLN
WHERE CAPPING WOULD IS WEAKER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 20 20
NEWTON 68 88 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
ELDORADO 69 88 69 87 / 20 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 89 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 68 90 67 87 / 40 30 30 20
GREAT BEND 68 90 67 89 / 30 20 30 20
SALINA 69 90 68 88 / 40 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 69 89 68 88 / 30 20 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 10
IOLA 68 87 68 86 / 30 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
235 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, THE ARW AND NMM ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION THAN IS THE 12KM NAM AT THIS TIME FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM PRETTY WELL SPLITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND DEEP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION
IS THE NMM WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION BOTH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY FEEDING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO WESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A MODELED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT
MAY BE LIMITED IN VERTICAL EXTENT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THE ARW
SUPPORTS SMALL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE EVENING AS WELL.
AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UNKNOWN MESOSCALE FEATURES, THE FORECASTER
CERTAINTY DROPS OF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MID LEVEL BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN TOT HE NORTHER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS WARM, AND MAY REMAIN THE
GENERAL FOCUS AREA FOR CONTINUE MCS DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF MOS TREND FOR DAILY
MAXIMUM T, ALTHOUGH THE TREND COULD BE CHANGING AS WE ARE HEADING
OUT OF THE RECENT RELATIVELY COOL, VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD. THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SEEMED TO HAVE HANDLED
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE BEST RECENTLY AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID TO
UPPER 60S LOWS DURING THE MID LEVEL TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AT KHYS, SOUTH
WINDS AT KDDC AND LIGHT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KGCK. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDDC/KGCK OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 93 69 89 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 66 92 67 90 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 65 92 68 92 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 67 94 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 67 91 67 87 / 40 20 30 30
P28 68 93 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
116 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AT KHYS, SOUTH
WINDS AT KDDC AND LIGHT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KGCK. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDDC/KGCK OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 93 69 89 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 66 92 67 90 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 65 92 68 92 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 67 94 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 67 91 67 87 / 40 20 30 30
P28 68 93 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
18-30KT THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-24KT THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KHYS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 67 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 94 66 92 66 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 65 92 65 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 97 67 94 67 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 90 67 91 65 / 20 40 20 30
P28 91 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SOUTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
BY EVENING BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE DAY. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS MOISTURE RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 67 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 93 66 92 66 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 96 65 92 65 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 96 67 94 67 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 90 67 91 65 / 20 40 20 30
P28 90 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLNIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS SW KANSAS, ANY OUTFLOW THAT MIGHT SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MORE
FAVORED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN KS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EASTERLY
NEXT WEEK WHETHER THE ELKHART LOW LIFTS NORTH, OR A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS PROVIDING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS. LASTLY, A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED COULD FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THE
WEEKEND.
WITH SUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER, HUMIDITY HIGHER AND LOWS STEADY IN THE 60S, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, CONVECTION LOOKS RELEGATED TO POINTS NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM DRIVES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN NC
KANSAS (RUSH-HAYS AREA AND NORTHWARD). THE GFS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS
THAT SCENARIO. THE MODEL SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN
THE NEB-KS STATE LINE CORRIDOR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS WARM SECTOR MAX INSTABILITY CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND POP
FORECAST. THE GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
UPPER 80S FOR DODGE CITY, AND THE EC AS WELL REMAINS THE COOLER
MODEL VS. A VERY WARM GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE 90S. ADDITIONALLY BY
THE WEEKEND, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM "BLANCA" IS
MODELS TO FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, ROUGHLY BY THE 400 MB RH FIELDS,
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS COULD INCREASE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AND RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SOUTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
BY EVENING BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE DAY. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS MOISTURE RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 67 87 66 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 93 66 88 65 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 96 65 89 64 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 96 67 90 66 / 0 10 30 10
HYS 90 67 85 64 / 20 50 30 30
P28 90 68 89 68 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED NDFD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TO LOWER
70S AND HIGHS IN THE FAR SOUTH TO NEAR 80. FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS CONTINUED TO AID IN EROSION OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHERE LOW
OVERCAST SKIES HAVE PERSISTED. PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK
NW. AT THE SAME TIME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER VA AND SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN PIKE COUNTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MUCH OF
HARLAN COUNTY IS ALREADY SEEING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE...JKL VWP FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING SHOWED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 3K MSL. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP WITH BREAKING UP THE SHALLOW CLOUDINESS OVER AT
LEAST THE SE PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1800 TO 1900 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE OCCURRED. SO BASED ON CURRENT LOCAL ANALYSIS HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO FORECAST. SPC ALSO HAS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED
IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.
THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS DRIFTING SOUTH...AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
WESTERN TIP OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE COVERED
EASTERN KY ARE ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT
DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED OVER VA AND TN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING A TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON
IS VERY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE SJS AND JKL TAFS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SO
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR OR IFR LATER
TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES THURSDAY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MUCH OF
HARLAN COUNTY IS ALREADY SEEING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE...JKL VWP FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING SHOWED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 3K MSL. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP WITH BREAKING UP THE SHALLOW CLOUDINESS OVER AT
LEAST THE SE PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1800 TO 1900 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE OCCURRED. SO BASED ON CURRENT LOCAL ANALYSIS HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO FORECAST. SPC ALSO HAS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED
IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.
THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG STILL
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW CIGS AND FOG HAS CAUSED KSJS AND KJKL TO GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND...LIFTING TO MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES...LIKE KJKL AND KSJS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CAUSE LITTLE
IMPACTS. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS WILL
SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS THESE
TWO WILL HAVE HAS BEEN POORLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS...SO JUST WENT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE OVERNIGHT SET UP /WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...ETC/.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.
THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG STILL
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW CIGS AND FOG HAS CAUSED KSJS AND KJKL TO GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND...LIFTING TO MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES...LIKE KJKL AND KSJS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CAUSE LITTLE
IMPACTS. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS WILL
SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS THESE
TWO WILL HAVE HAS BEEN POORLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS...SO JUST WENT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE OVERNIGHT SET UP /WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...ETC/.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.
THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG
IS STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF TAF SITES TO SOME DEGREE.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE. KSJS AND KJKL ARE ALREADY
HOVERING AROUND AIRPORT MINS AT TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND LOWEST CIGS
MAY SLOWLY BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME
BRIEF SCT/ING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THINGS
WELL ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOUL
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CLOUDS
WILL ACTUALLY BREAK OR NOT. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE IN THE
TAFS AS A RESULT. ISL TO SCT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
KY...INCLUDING KSJS AND KJKL. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER
SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
351 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.
THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND DRIFT EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IS GOOD...BUT TIMING ON THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN REQUIRES KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS GRIP ON
OUR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG
IS STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF TAF SITES TO SOME DEGREE.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE. KSJS AND KJKL ARE ALREADY
HOVERING AROUND AIRPORT MINS AT TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND LOWEST CIGS
MAY SLOWLY BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME
BRIEF SCT/ING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THINGS
WELL ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOUL
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CLOUDS
WILL ACTUALLY BREAK OR NOT. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE IN THE
TAFS AS A RESULT. ISL TO SCT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
KY...INCLUDING KSJS AND KJKL. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER
SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
650 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACORSS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH
LEVELS AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE
40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES
TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH,
EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER,
THE USUAL SHLETERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID
30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL
GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2
FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1032 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RECENT RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SRN MN. IT SEEMS THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB BOUNDARY ALONG
I-90 AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM THE
DAKOTAS. CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF AN 850 MB JET...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. DID INCREASE
POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT FROM 05-13Z...BUT WILL AWAIT FUTURE TRENDS
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS/ST-CUMULUS CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FIELD BLW
3K. NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION...A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA/SHRA OVER EASTERN SD HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX AND
RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN
WC/CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REDEVELOPING
AFT 3Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY DAY 7... WITH A
STEADY SLOW WARMING TREND OVER TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL... SO DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL MAINLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SO NOT
A PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG ADVERTISED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40KT...
THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THEY/D LIKELY JUST BE A HAIL THREAT. ONCE SATURDAY
NIGHT/S PCPN MOVES OUT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THINGS
LOOK TO BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. PCPN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...
WITH A WEAK FROPA WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PCPN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE.
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MN
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI SHOULD
KEEP THINGS LARGELY VFR THERE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SPORADIC
REPORTS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THERE AS
MIXING BEGINS. REMOVED THE VCTS AT RWF WITH A DECLINING CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COMPARED TO EARLIER THINKING ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
KMSP...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS ARE HOVERING NEAR
MVFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SUCH
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FL025 HOWEVER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
714 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RECENT RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SRN MN. IT SEEMS THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB BOUNDARY ALONG
I-90 AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM THE
DAKOTAS. CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF AN 850 MB JET...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. DID INCREASE
POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT FROM 05-13Z...BUT WILL AWAIT FUTURE TRENDS
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS/ST-CUMULUS CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FIELD BLW
3K. NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION...A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA/SHRA OVER EASTERN SD HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX AND
RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN
WC/CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REDEVELOPING
AFT 3Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY DAY 7... WITH A
STEADY SLOW WARMING TREND OVER TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL... SO DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL MAINLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SO NOT
A PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG ADVERTISED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40KT...
THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THEY/D LIKELY JUST BE A HAIL THREAT. ONCE SATURDAY
NIGHT/S PCPN MOVES OUT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THINGS
LOOK TO BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. PCPN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...
WITH A WEAK FROPA WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PCPN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE.
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DIURNAL CU IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
REMAIN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MN.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR RWF
AFTER 07Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY
FRIDAY.
KMSP...AT THIS POINT...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS BUILD OVERNIGHT...IF THEY
DEVELOP AT ALL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND
THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR
LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER
CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAS BEEN TRENDS OF
BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV
AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE
FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK DOES ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA.
AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE THE SITES AT TIMES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...WITH PREVALENT MVFR CIGS. BY SUNSET...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN WI...WITH ALL SITES DRY BY 09Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
BR AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z.
KMSP...
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS THROUGH AT TAF
TIME...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK UNTIL THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP...DROPPING BELOW 1700FT BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. SHOULD SEE
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THU.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA. WIND SW 7-10 KTS BECOMING NW 7-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
KEY FEATURE TODAY THAT WILL BE PLAYING THE PRIMARY ROLL IN WHAT
HAPPENS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE WELL DEFINED MCV THAT WAS OVER
THE ERN SODAK/NEB BORDER AT 3 AM. THE MCS THAT GENERATED THIS MCV IS
RACING TO THE SE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LLJ WHICH HAS SPLIT AS
IT ENTERED THE MPX AREA...WITH ONE ENHANCED ARE OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GOING ACROSS NRN MN AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH NOW NOSING
INTO SW IOWA...THIS EXPLAINS WHY MOST OF US ENDED UP DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONE BATCH OF STORMS REMAINING NORTH AND THE OTHER BATCH GOING
SOUTH.
TO SAY THE INITIALIZATION OF THE MCV IN THE MODELS WAS POOR WOULD
BEEN AN UNDERSTATEMENT...WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND EVEN THE CAMS FOR REALLY THE WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LOOKING THROUGH THE WEEDS THOUGH...THERE WERE A COUPLE OF MODELS
THAT LOOKED TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO SOME IDEA OF THE MCV THIS MORNING
AT THAT WOULD BE THE RAP/HRRR ALONG WITH THE HIRES ARW. FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE GOTTEN CLOSEST TO
INITIALIZING THIS WAVE...THOUGH THINK IT IS UNDERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF IT GENERATES THROUGH TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE ANY ISSUES
WITH WHAT THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE MCV...IT
IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY SENDING IT TO FAR
NORTH.
WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING IS THAT WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH
PRECIP IN THE MPX CWA UNTIL THE MCV ARRIVES...WHICH WILL BE AROUND
12Z IN OUR SW COUNTIES. AS THE MCV MOVES ENE THROUGH THE
MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THIS MCV WILL BRING WITH IT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE FOLKS SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
BECAUSE OF THAT...OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRETTY LOW TODAY GIVEN
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/RAIN EXPECTED. IF WE WERE TO SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...THINK WHERE THE SPC HAS THEIR MARGINAL RISK IS A
PRETTY GOOD ESTIMATE...IS THIS WOULD BE TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF THE
MCV WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MORE ENHANCED
DESTABILIZATION.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE MCV ACROSS MN IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...EXPECT GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN 8PM AND
MIDNIGHT OVER WRN WI BEFORE THIS WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS WAY TOWARD
THE WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MEANS WE
WILL NOT BE ACHIEVING OUR POTENTIAL GIVEN 925-850 TEMPS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY IN MN...WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. INSTEAD FAVORED THE COOLER END OF THE
MODEL ENVELOP FOR HIGHS TODAY...GOING WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S.
TONIGHT...WE DID SLOW DOWN THE ERN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...SO
WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL FOR ALL BUT WRN AND CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND EVEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL POSITION IS THE REASON FOR THE
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS ALONG I-90 IN SOUTHERN MN AND LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN WI ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE OF PRECIP. EVENTUALLY THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO THERE SHOULD BE A 12-24 HOUR
WINDOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY.
MN/WI DOES REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 830-300MB THICKNESS
RIDGE WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH EVERY SO
OFTEN AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF 20%-40%
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. EVENTUALLY A TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA TAKES A TRIP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CANADA AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH /OR SURPASS/ 80 DEGREES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. MAJORITY OF LEAD MCS OVER NEB SHOULD DIVE
SOUTH INTO IOWA...BUT LIKE THE IDEA OF THE 3&4Z RUNS OF THE HRRR
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN AND INTO WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME. AFTER
THAT...ALSO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/NMM/ARW AND A COUPLE OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS OF SHOWERS/STORM EXPANDING IN WRN MN AROUND 18Z AS
THE MCV ARRIVES. IN THE TAFS...MENTIONED A SHRA OR VCSH FOR WHEN
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAFS...WHILE VCTS WAS USED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MCV PRECIPITATION. ALSO TRIED
TO BACK TRACK SOME ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. RIGHT
NOW...SUB VFR CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THINK
WE NEED TO START GETTING INTO THAT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS BECOME A BIG CONCERN...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
GET INTO THE NW MPX AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW...HENCE THE LONG
PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS. AFRAID THE HRRR MAY BE OVERDONE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE SEE THIS MORNING...BUT THE HRRR HAS SUPPORT FROM A
COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS...SO LEFT THAT
MENTION IN. AFTERNOON HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS IT IS STILL
TO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH THE MCV. TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHEN THE THREAT FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE GREATEST...PER SREF PROBABILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIG/VIS IN MORNING. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH
TOMORROW.
IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAVE FACILITATED A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM NOCTURNAL DAKOTAS
CONVECTION HAVE HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT UNTIL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
DAKOTAS /CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...MORE SO IN NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION/...SPREADS EASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN LATER THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE PRESSES IN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
SECONDARY ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 09Z...AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS DO FAVOR STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
THE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY...MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DESTABILIZING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO VERY MARGINAL...SO AT THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...WILL BE RELATED TO ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.
FIRST...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD FROM THE WEST...AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THRU FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS A RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...BOTH THE GFS/EC HAVE HELD OR EVEN
SLOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HOLDING ONTO THE PRECIPITATION LONGER INTO THE EVENING
THAN EXPECTED. BUT...WITH THE FAST FLOW...YOU WOULD EXPECT A
FASTER SOLUTION AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD WITH IT. I DO LIKE THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD EAST/SE
OF OUR CWA AFT 00Z AS THE ANTICIPATED SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FASTER FLOW...MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE SECOND CONCERN IS
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE GFS IS WETTER AND
FURTHER NORTH THEN THE EC/GEM WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE
DRIER EAST/NE FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...KEPT SLIGHT CHC AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
FIELDS.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW CONUS...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL LEAD
TOWARD WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BLENDED SCENARIO...BUT THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO
HOLD ONTO CHC POPS STARTING SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MEAN FLOW FROM
BOTH THE EC/GFS BECOMES MORE NW DUE TO A STRONGER SHRTWV MOVING SE
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS NO REAL WARM WEATHER IN TERMS OF HIGHS IN THE 80S OR
EVEN 90S BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW AND MEAN ENSEMBLES 50H HEIGHTS
PAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE KEY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
WILL OCCUR ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
EASTERN CANADA...SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...OR A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. MAJORITY OF LEAD MCS OVER NEB SHOULD DIVE
SOUTH INTO IOWA...BUT LIKE THE IDEA OF THE 3&4Z RUNS OF THE HRRR
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN AND INTO WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME. AFTER
THAT...ALSO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/NMM/ARW AND A COUPLE OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS OF SHOWERS/STORM EXPANDING IN WRN MN AROUND 18Z AS
THE MCV ARRIVES. IN THE TAFS...MENTIONED A SHRA OR VCSH FOR WHEN
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAFS...WHILE VCTS WAS USED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MCV PRECIPITATION. ALSO TRIED
TO BACK TRACK SOME ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. RIGHT
NOW...SUB VFR CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THINK
WE NEED TO START GETTING INTO THAT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS BECOME A BIG CONCERN...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
GET INTO THE NW MPX AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW...HENCE THE LONG
PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS. AFRAID THE HRRR MAY BE OVERDONE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE SEE THIS MORNING...BUT THE HRRR HAS SUPPORT FROM A
COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS...SO LEFT THAT
MENTION IN. AFTERNOON HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS IT IS STILL
TO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH THE MCV. TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHEN THE THREAT FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE GREATEST...PER SREF PROBABILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIG/VIS IN MORNING. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Issued at 715 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Based on radar, the complex over northwestern MO is moving more in
a southerly direction. So have adjusted higher pops further west,
mainly affecting central MO through tomorrow morning with lower
pops the further east you go. With this adjustment, had to adjust
pops for 12z-18z Friday with higher pops west. Also, the heavier
rain will be west of forecast area, over EAX`s forecast area once
again.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
An upper level RIDGE centered over the southern Plains is nosing
into MO this afternoon, creating a pivot point for MCSs as they
traverse thru our region, whereby they initially travel to the E-SE
and then turn right near STL metro where they move more to the
south. At the surface, a synoptic cold front extended from just
north of OMA thru central IA and into southern WI. A more ambiguous
boundary from an old convective outflow extended from southeast KS
thru southern MO and into far southern IL. Pcpn from MCS #1 has
nearly completely dissipated over STL metro and southeast MO, while
pcpn from MCS #2 has hung together better than originally
anticipated, rolling into central MO, while its southern fringe has
lit up with TSRA for areas just south of DMO. MCS #3 already is
taking shape over central Nebraska. Plenty of convective debris
clouds over our region has kept the sun`s power at bay, with many
locales remaining in the 70-75 range.
The brunt of MCS #2 in central MO is expected to continue to weaken
as it propagates E-SE into worked over and stable air and should
dissipate before reaching STL metro. Its southern fringe south of
Moniteau and Cole counties stands the best chance at surviving for
several hours longer where the better instability exists but should
be mostly outside the forecast area.
Attention then turns to MCS #3 where the RIDGE aloft is expected to
retrograde westward this evening allowing for a more uniform SE push
tonight. While a few showers and storms may wander into our area
this evening, the main event from MCS #3 will be after midnight and
should be a bit further S and W than originally thought. Once
confidence increases sufficiently on where the most active elements
will line up, and if the storm`s rainfall rates were anything like
what we saw this morning--and they should with 1.8" PWs, this will
be an area that may have an elevated FF threat. For now have likely
PoPs going mainly into central-northeast MO southeastward towards
STL metro which can be adjusted upward as well once confidence
increases. Severe threat looks marginal with limited instability,
except in the evening. So may see a small severe threat in the
evening with isolated-scattered convection and at the initial
approach of MCS #3, but primary concern looks to be heavy rainfall
overnight and into early Friday morning.
MOS min temps look in the ballpark.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Main focus thru the short term will remain precip chances.
Expect another MCS to develop this evening across srn NEB/nrn KS and
propagate ewd into srn IA/nrn MO late tonight into Fri morning as
discussed above. Have pulled higher PoPs further SW compared to the
prev forecast as last couple of mdl cycles have consistently
suggested precip too far newd. Confidence in location of heavy
rainfall overnight into Fri morning is somewhat low attm. If
confidence in location increases, a Flash Flood watch may be needed
this evening or overnight especially for portions of central and
into eastern MO.
Other change from the prev forecast was to lower temps Fri due to
the expected rain and convective debris. Going forecast may still be
on the warm side in some areas. However, breaks in cloud cover may
allow temps in some locations to jump quickly. Lowered temps
slightly on Sat as sfc ridge builds into the area. As the fnt lifts
nwd by Sun, expect temps to rise again briefly ahead of an
approaching cdfnt. Am a little concerned going forecast for Sun is
too cool.
Have increased PoPs Sun night into Mon as the cdfnt is progd to push
thru the region. Currently, the GFS soln seems more likely with the
fnt becoming quasi-stationary across the region Mon and Tues until
being pushed S of the CWA late Tues into Wed as the main trof moves
thru the region. Have kept PoPs on the low end given the uncertainty
and spread among mdl solns.
As for temps in the extd, have trended twd a compromise of the
available guidance given the uncertainty and impacts from precip.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Tranquil weather is expected early this evening, thanks to
subsidence and stability in the wake of this afternoons shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some fog development in the rain-cooled
airmass cannot totally be ruled out late this evening, but
currently anticipating that increasing CI shield from upstream
convection will tend to suppress this.
However, it certainly appears that storms will be overspreading
much of the CWA once again late tonight and into early Friday
morning, with area of convection dropping into extreme nw MO and
ne KS. Storm propagation vectors suggests this activity should
push southeast with time and believe the 21z HRRR has a very good
handle on its evolution and movmement. As a result thunderstorm
trends at each TAF location are closely tied to this output, but
obviously specifics will be adjusted once radar trends become
better defined. Current timing is for MCS to reach KCOU around 08z
and then expand into the STL metro area by around daybreak, with
the most intense convective cores remaining south of KUIN. At the
very least MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected with the stronger parts
of the complex, and occasional IFR is certainly not out of the
question...especially over mid MO where storms will be tapping
some of the high octane air currently residing over KS (MLCAPES of
2500-3500 J/Kg).
Activity should diminsh from west to east across the region during
the morning. One big question for the afternoon hours will be if
AMS can destabilize enough in the wake of the morning precip to
support another round of convection, with a secondary question
being which surface/low level boundary will be driving the low
level forcing...the synoptic surface front which should be draped
over the area but appears to be rather diffuse, or the outflow
boundary tied to the morning convection, which should primarily be
south of our CWA during the afternoon. Because of this large
uncertainty have opted to leave out mention of redevelopment at
this time; overnight/early morning storm trends should give us
some of these answers.
Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with VFR conditions for much of the
evening and early overnight hours. Have an approximate arrival
time of the MCS around daybreak, with occasional MVFR vsbys in the
pockets of moderate rain that occurs in the stronger cores. This
activity should wind down during the morning, leaving VFR cigs
around 5kft in its wake. As mentioned in the primary discussion,
afternoon redevelopment is certainly a possibility but its
location is very much in doubt, so at this time have omitted the
mention of afternoon development in the KSTL TAF.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
716 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 715 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Based on radar and latest HRRR model run, should see a break in
the precipitation this evening for most locations, so lowered pops
everywhere. Then storms that are developing over northeastern
KS/northwestern MO will slowly spread southeast moving into
central/northeast MO and west central IL by midnight and rest of
forecast area before daybreak.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
An upper level RIDGE centered over the southern Plains is nosing
into MO this afternoon, creating a pivot point for MCSs as they
traverse thru our region, whereby they initially travel to the E-SE
and then turn right near STL metro where they move more to the
south. At the surface, a synoptic cold front extended from just
north of OMA thru central IA and into southern WI. A more ambiguous
boundary from an old convective outflow extended from southeast KS
thru southern MO and into far southern IL. Pcpn from MCS #1 has
nearly completely dissipated over STL metro and southeast MO, while
pcpn from MCS #2 has hung together better than originally
anticipated, rolling into central MO, while its southern fringe has
lit up with TSRA for areas just south of DMO. MCS #3 already is
taking shape over central Nebraska. Plenty of convective debris
clouds over our region has kept the sun`s power at bay, with many
locales remaining in the 70-75 range.
The brunt of MCS #2 in central MO is expected to continue to weaken
as it propagates E-SE into worked over and stable air and should
dissipate before reaching STL metro. Its southern fringe south of
Moniteau and Cole counties stands the best chance at surviving for
several hours longer where the better instability exists but should
be mostly outside the forecast area.
Attention then turns to MCS #3 where the RIDGE aloft is expected to
retrograde westward this evening allowing for a more uniform SE push
tonight. While a few showers and storms may wander into our area
this evening, the main event from MCS #3 will be after midnight and
should be a bit further S and W than originally thought. Once
confidence increases sufficiently on where the most active elements
will line up, and if the storm`s rainfall rates were anything like
what we saw this morning--and they should with 1.8" PWs, this will
be an area that may have an elevated FF threat. For now have likely
PoPs going mainly into central-northeast MO southeastward towards
STL metro which can be adjusted upward as well once confidence
increases. Severe threat looks marginal with limited instability,
except in the evening. So may see a small severe threat in the
evening with isolated-scattered convection and at the initial
approach of MCS #3, but primary concern looks to be heavy rainfall
overnight and into early Friday morning.
MOS min temps look in the ballpark.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Main focus thru the short term will remain precip chances.
Expect another MCS to develop this evening across srn NEB/nrn KS and
propagate ewd into srn IA/nrn MO late tonight into Fri morning as
discussed above. Have pulled higher PoPs further SW compared to the
prev forecast as last couple of mdl cycles have consistently
suggested precip too far newd. Confidence in location of heavy
rainfall overnight into Fri morning is somewhat low attm. If
confidence in location increases, a Flash Flood watch may be needed
this evening or overnight especially for portions of central and
into eastern MO.
Other change from the prev forecast was to lower temps Fri due to
the expected rain and convective debris. Going forecast may still be
on the warm side in some areas. However, breaks in cloud cover may
allow temps in some locations to jump quickly. Lowered temps
slightly on Sat as sfc ridge builds into the area. As the fnt lifts
nwd by Sun, expect temps to rise again briefly ahead of an
approaching cdfnt. Am a little concerned going forecast for Sun is
too cool.
Have increased PoPs Sun night into Mon as the cdfnt is progd to push
thru the region. Currently, the GFS soln seems more likely with the
fnt becoming quasi-stationary across the region Mon and Tues until
being pushed S of the CWA late Tues into Wed as the main trof moves
thru the region. Have kept PoPs on the low end given the uncertainty
and spread among mdl solns.
As for temps in the extd, have trended twd a compromise of the
available guidance given the uncertainty and impacts from precip.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Tranquil weather is expected early this evening, thanks to
subsidence and stability in the wake of this afternoons shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some fog development in the rain-cooled
airmass cannot totally be ruled out late this evening, but
currently anticipating that increasing CI shield from upstream
convection will tend to suppress this.
However, it certainly appears that storms will be overspreading
much of the CWA once again late tonight and into early Friday
morning, with area of convection dropping into extreme nw MO and
ne KS. Storm propagation vectors suggests this activity should
push southeast with time and believe the 21z HRRR has a very good
handle on its evolution and movmement. As a result thunderstorm
trends at each TAF location are closely tied to this output, but
obviously specifics will be adjusted once radar trends become
better defined. Current timing is for MCS to reach KCOU around 08z
and then expand into the STL metro area by around daybreak, with
the most intense convective cores remaining south of KUIN. At the
very least MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected with the stronger parts
of the complex, and occasional IFR is certainly not out of the
question...especially over mid MO where storms will be tapping
some of the high octane air currently residing over KS (MLCAPES of
2500-3500 J/Kg).
Activity should diminsh from west to east across the region during
the morning. One big question for the afternoon hours will be if
AMS can destabilize enough in the wake of the morning precip to
support another round of convection, with a secondary question
being which surface/low level boundary will be driving the low
level forcing...the synoptic surface front which should be draped
over the area but appears to be rather diffuse, or the outflow
boundary tied to the morning convection, which should primarily be
south of our CWA during the afternoon. Because of this large
uncertainty have opted to leave out mention of redevelopment at
this time; overnight/early morning storm trends should give us
some of these answers.
Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with VFR conditions for much of the
evening and early overnight hours. Have an approximate arrival
time of the MCS around daybreak, with occasional MVFR vsbys in the
pockets of moderate rain that occurs in the stronger cores. This
activity should wind down during the morning, leaving VFR cigs
around 5kft in its wake. As mentioned in the primary discussion,
afternoon redevelopment is certainly a possibility but its
location is very much in doubt, so at this time have omitted the
mention of afternoon development in the KSTL TAF.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
705 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
An upper level RIDGE centered over the southern Plains is nosing
into MO this afternoon, creating a pivot point for MCSs as they
traverse thru our region, whereby they initially travel to the E-SE
and then turn right near STL metro where they move more to the
south. At the surface, a synoptic cold front extended from just
north of OMA thru central IA and into southern WI. A more ambiguous
boundary from an old convective outflow extended from southeast KS
thru southern MO and into far southern IL. Pcpn from MCS #1 has
nearly completely dissipated over STL metro and southeast MO, while
pcpn from MCS #2 has hung together better than originally
anticipated, rolling into central MO, while its southern fringe has
lit up with TSRA for areas just south of DMO. MCS #3 already is
taking shape over central Nebraska. Plenty of convective debris
clouds over our region has kept the sun`s power at bay, with many
locales remaining in the 70-75 range.
The brunt of MCS #2 in central MO is expected to continue to weaken
as it propagates E-SE into worked over and stable air and should
dissipate before reaching STL metro. Its southern fringe south of
Moniteau and Cole counties stands the best chance at surviving for
several hours longer where the better instability exists but should
be mostly outside the forecast area.
Attention then turns to MCS #3 where the RIDGE aloft is expected to
retrograde westward this evening allowing for a more uniform SE push
tonight. While a few showers and storms may wander into our area
this evening, the main event from MCS #3 will be after midnight and
should be a bit further S and W than originally thought. Once
confidence increases sufficiently on where the most active elements
will line up, and if the storm`s rainfall rates were anything like
what we saw this morning--and they should with 1.8" PWs, this will
be an area that may have an elevated FF threat. For now have likely
PoPs going mainly into central-northeast MO southeastward towards
STL metro which can be adjusted upward as well once confidence
increases. Severe threat looks marginal with limited instability,
except in the evening. So may see a small severe threat in the
evening with isolated-scattered convection and at the initial
approach of MCS #3, but primary concern looks to be heavy rainfall
overnight and into early Friday morning.
MOS min temps look in the ballpark.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Main focus thru the short term will remain precip chances.
Expect another MCS to develop this evening across srn NEB/nrn KS and
propagate ewd into srn IA/nrn MO late tonight into Fri morning as
discussed above. Have pulled higher PoPs further SW compared to the
prev forecast as last couple of mdl cycles have consistently
suggested precip too far newd. Confidence in location of heavy
rainfall overnight into Fri morning is somewhat low attm. If
confidence in location increases, a Flash Flood watch may be needed
this evening or overnight especially for portions of central and
into eastern MO.
Other change from the prev forecast was to lower temps Fri due to
the expected rain and convective debris. Going forecast may still be
on the warm side in some areas. However, breaks in cloud cover may
allow temps in some locations to jump quickly. Lowered temps
slightly on Sat as sfc ridge builds into the area. As the fnt lifts
nwd by Sun, expect temps to rise again briefly ahead of an
approaching cdfnt. Am a little concerned going forecast for Sun is
too cool.
Have increased PoPs Sun night into Mon as the cdfnt is progd to push
thru the region. Currently, the GFS soln seems more likely with the
fnt becoming quasi-stationary across the region Mon and Tues until
being pushed S of the CWA late Tues into Wed as the main trof moves
thru the region. Have kept PoPs on the low end given the uncertainty
and spread among mdl solns.
As for temps in the extd, have trended twd a compromise of the
available guidance given the uncertainty and impacts from precip.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Tranquil weather is expected early this evening, thanks to
subsidence and stability in the wake of this afternoons shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some fog development in the rain-cooled
airmass cannot totally be ruled out late this evening, but
currently anticipating that increasing CI shield from upstream
convection will tend to suppress this.
However, it certainly appears that storms will be overspreading
much of the CWA once again late tonight and into early Friday
morning, with area of convection dropping into extreme nw MO and
ne KS. Storm propagation vectors suggests this activity should
push southeast with time and believe the 21z HRRR has a very good
handle on its evolution and movmement. As a result thunderstorm
trends at each TAF location are closely tied to this output, but
obviously specifics will be adjusted once radar trends become
better defined. Current timing is for MCS to reach KCOU around 08z
and then expand into the STL metro area by around daybreak, with
the most intense convective cores remaining south of KUIN. At the
very least MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected with the stronger parts
of the complex, and occasional IFR is certainly not out of the
question...especially over mid MO where storms will be tapping
some of the high octane air currently residing over KS (MLCAPES of
2500-3500 J/Kg).
Activity should diminsh from west to east across the region during
the morning. One big question for the afternoon hours will be if
AMS can destabilize enough in the wake of the morning precip to
support another round of convection, with a secondary question
being which surface/low level boundary will be driving the low
level forcing...the synoptic surface front which should be draped
over the area but appears to be rather diffuse, or the outflow
boundary tied to the morning convection, which should primarily be
south of our CWA during the afternoon. Because of this large
uncertainty have opted to leave out mention of redevelopment at
this time; overnight/early morning storm trends should give us
some of these answers.
Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with VFR conditions for much of the
evening and early overnight hours. Have an approximate arrival
time of the MCS around daybreak, with occasional MVFR vsbys in the
pockets of moderate rain that occurs in the stronger cores. This
activity should wind down during the morning, leaving VFR cigs
around 5kft in its wake. As mentioned in the primary discussion,
afternoon redevelopment is certainly a possibility but its
location is very much in doubt, so at this time have omitted the
mention of afternoon development in the KSTL TAF.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 69 82 65 82 / 60 70 30 10
Quincy 68 78 61 79 / 60 70 10 10
Columbia 67 81 64 82 / 70 70 30 20
Jefferson City 67 82 65 82 / 70 60 30 20
Salem 67 82 63 82 / 20 60 30 10
Farmington 65 81 63 81 / 50 60 30 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWa overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.
Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.
Friday`s forecast is highly dependent on how tonight`s storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.
Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Forecast is tied to overnight evolution of MCSs. A small MCS over
southeast NE is expected to expand this evening as better
moisture/instability feeds into the western fringe of the complex. A
second MCS is a bit more problematic as short range models have
overplayed the development of convection over western KS. Believe
later activity is more likely to form over north central KS/south
central NE and then roll eastward, much as they did last night.
Low confidence on timing of the second MCS so lengthened the period
containing VCTS. Ceilings will generally remain VFR although when
heavier cells move through MVFR visibilities/ceilings are likely.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday.
Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken
this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening.
Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area.
Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.
Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG taf: Extensive clouds at times, but
generally VFR conditions are expected in the near term. An area of
thunderstorms to the north will need to be watched, but for now
have no thunder in any of the tafs. Guidance is hinting at some
late night fog/stratus over some of the area toward 09z-10z again
and have mvfr ceilings and visibility to cover this for now.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.
Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.
A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.
Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.
The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.
At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG taf: Extensive clouds at times, but
generally VFR conditions are expected in the near term. An area of
thunderstorms to the north will need to be watched, but for now
have no thunder in any of the tafs. Guidance is hinting at some
late night fog/stratus over some of the area toward 09z-10z again
and have mvfr ceilings and visibility to cover this for now.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
...12z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.
Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.
A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.
Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.
The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.
At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Pilots can expect IFR ceilings for SGF through 14z with an
improvement by mid to late morning. At BBG...expect LIFR ceilings
through 14z with an improvement by mid to late morning. All TAF
sites will see VFR by midday with scattered clouds between 3k to
4k by the afternoon. Some convection is possible across central
Missouri this afternoon but should stay north of the 3 main TAF
sites for today. There may be some light MVFR fog and ceilings again for
BBG late tonight after 09z. Winds will remain southeasterly around
10 knots or less through the next 24 hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.
Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.
A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.
Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.
The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.
At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Pilots can expect more favorable flight conditions overall at area
terminals through Wednesday. Areas of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in light fog may develop overnight. However any lower
ceilings are expected to lift more quickly on Wednesday. Otherwise
pilots can expect a southeasterly breeze at the surface with high
pressure centered to the east of the area.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY
OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON HEATING ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 06Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE IS
CAUSING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO EXCEED 40 KTS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. NUTTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES AND WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PUT THE STATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COULSTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED IN
PORTIONS OF FERGUS COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MCDONALD CREEK ALONG
HIGHWAY 200 AND SPRING CREEK UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN
HAVE RISEN TO NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...PEAKING DURING LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA...SO WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AND DROP THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 72 50 75 / 20 40 20 10
CTB 43 73 45 76 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 53 74 53 77 / 30 50 40 10
BZN 48 72 48 72 / 40 50 50 30
WEY 38 67 39 66 / 30 70 40 40
DLN 47 69 49 70 / 40 50 40 30
HVR 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 50 69 51 72 / 30 50 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT FRIDAY
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM.
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND
REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND
OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED.
FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER
THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT
AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM.
SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION
POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY
OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE
BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING
RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR
40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE
CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE.
BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES.
SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A
BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH
SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION
SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT
WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO
BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK AND KOMA BY 20Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 03Z. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. KLNK LOOKS TO
HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STORMS STARTING
03Z-06Z THEN EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z. KOMA AND KOFK MAY SEE STORMS
AFTER 06Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
136 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG
OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA AND ALONG OR NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 IN KANSAS. SOME FORECAST MODELS HAVE INITIATION NORTH
OF THIS ZONE AND SOME SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BUT THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS FOR INITIATION IS WITHIN THIS REGION OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERALLY FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11 PM. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCREET SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
STORMS LIFE CYCLE PRIOR TO EVENTUAL MCS EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.
TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.
WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.
UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NAILING DOWN THE WIND DIRECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG
AVIATION CONCERNS. THE WIND HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE DUE TO OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. FOR THE TAF...WENT
WITH THE EXPECTED PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE RATHER VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI AND KEAR
WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 3 AM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.
TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.
WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.
UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THESE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY EXISTS AT LEAST WITHIN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
KGRI/KEAR...MAINLY DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH WILL LINGER A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE RAIN /STORM-FREE BEFORE THE POTENTIAL NEXT
ROUND FIRES UP. AT LEAST FOR NOW...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SUB-VFR CEILING OR VISIBILITY OTHER THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR SURFACE WIND...A MAINLY EASTERLY
COMPONENT AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE AREA REMAINING NORTH OF THE MAIN WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. OBVIOUSLY THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES COULD
GREATLY AFFECT THIS. IN CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF
ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS FOR
NOW ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST FEW HOURS IS BEING COVERED WITH A
GENERIC VCTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.
TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.
WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.
UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THESE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY EXISTS...MAINLY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 1-2
HOURS...AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...STORMS WILL PRODUCE
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS INTO AT LEAST THE 30-40 KT
RANGE...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAINLY
AT KGRI. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A VARIETY OF FORECAST
MODEL SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL
BE RAIN/STORM-FREE...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE ARRIVES BY THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
(VCTS) MENTION FOR THIS LATER-PERIOD ACTIVITY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SUB-VFR CEILING OR VISIBILITY OTHER
THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...A SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTION WILL LIKELY SET IN EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF STORMS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15KT. IN CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF
ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
REMNANTS OF AN MCV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NE/SD WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.
00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED NEUTRAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AMPLE H85 MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE WITH +12 TO +14 DEWPOINTS. +12 TO
+16 H70 TEMPS EXIST...AND THIS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF EXISTING DEVELOPMENT.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST WITH KLBF SOUNDING
CONTAINING ABOUT 3800 J/KG OF CAPE.
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY STILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...AND LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL
ADJUST ONGOING FOR A LITTLE LATER DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...AND WE MAY SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND NORTH AND EAST...SIMILAR TO
LATEST HRRR DEPICTION. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND
TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM...MOIST
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE
METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO
THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE AID OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF STORMS SO HAVE THIS MENTIONED...THEN TREND TO LIKELY
POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80.
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA
AN THE MCS SHOULD ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST . SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY TRY TO RE-FORM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE
HIGHS FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/UNSTABLE
AIR (3000J/KG) IN PLACE AND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ADDED TO THE
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.
THE REAL WARM TEMPERATURES STAY TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNCAPPED AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS COVERAGE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 76 TO 82.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MORE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT KOFK
AREA 07-09Z...AND KOMA/KLNK 11-14Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND COULD
LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 16Z.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT
STORM CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY 21Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH MORE
SPECIFIC TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
740 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN
MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD UTAH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN REBOUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE
MAY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NAM...GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR ALL WANT TO ADVECT SOME
RICHER MOISTURE NEAR 850MB WESTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHERN ARIZONA...REACHING LAKE MEAD BY SUNRISE. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT IN THOSE AREAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS MOISTURE WESTWARD FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW....BUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
MORNING HOURS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A NICELY DEVELOPED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE REAR EXIT REGION OF THE JET AND
A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND WESTERN
ESMERALDA COUNTIES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE BUT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DEPOSIT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA A LARGE BAND OF CIRRUS WAS PUSHING EAST
AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS QUICKLY
AS THE SKY CLEARS OUT FROM THIS BAND, IT WILL FILL BACK ON IN AS
MORE CIRRUS HEADS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHLAND. THIS CIRRUS DOES NOT
LOOK AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE BUT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING.
THE LOW PRESENTLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD SOCAL TONIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD UTAH BY SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY ELONGATE
AND STARTS TO GET STRETCHED OUT INTO A BROAD AXIS OF ENERGY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH
IN OUR AREA WILL COME FROM THE LOW CENTER ITSELF, HOWEVER, SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDRES THAT HAS
BEEN PUSHED TOWARD ARIZONA DOES APPEAR TO GET CAUGHT IN THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE LOW`S CIRCULATION. THIS MOISTURE WILL START TO GET
FED INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST CLARK AND
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, WE
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN AREAS EAST OF
KINGMAN AND NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 93 BETWEEN HOOVER DAM AND KINGMAN
AND UP TOWARD MESQUITE AND THE MOAPA VALLEY ESPECIALLY AS THE 250 MB
JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES LIFTING OF THE AIR. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MOST UNSTABLE MODEL IN THIS AREA AND AS A
RESULT GENERATES QPF OVER A BIGGER AREA AND EVENTUALLY PROPAGATES
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LAS VEGAS AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE NOT GONE
AS WET AT THE GFS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM
MODELS KEEP ANY QPF OUT OF THE HEART OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW, WE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME SPRINKLES OR
A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND POPS WERE RAISED IN THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE, THE BEST SHOT AT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES AS SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE HERE AND THE FLOW UPSLOPES INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY AS A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO HEAD INTO
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE PLENTIFUL OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF LAS
VEGAS. THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE SO IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER
HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP TEMPS A BIT AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
SOME MARINE AIR IN THROUGH THE PASSES IN SOCAL TOWARD BARSTOW AND
YUCCA VALLEY KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN A BIT.
OVER THE WEEKEND MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY AS THE LOW WANDERS
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW`S CIRCULATION WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN ESMERALDA, CENTRAL
NYE, NORTHERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY, THE
PROSPECTS LOOK LESS EVEN IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A JUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AND WE
TRENDED ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STILL EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPS IN MOST DESERTS.
MEANWHILE, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, BLANCA SHOULD BE
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MONDAY MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND JUST
HOW THAT FEATURE WILL STEER THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. THE ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE DEWPOINTS SOME MORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
THIS WAS DONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA, WHICH IS A
GOOD MIX OF GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA WILL PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SLIGHT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPED OUR WAY WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD SPARK
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON AT LEAST SOME OF THE TERRAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. PLUS THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH TO HELP
TRIGGER SOME DEVELOPMENT. ALSO, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCES WE
ALREADY HAD GOING FOR THOSE AREAS TUESDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE AND FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT
WANTED TO NUDGE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY OR SO
AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME CONFIGURATION
ISSUES FRIDAY BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z AS THE DIRECTION AGAIN VARIES
BETWEEN 140 AND 180 DEGREES TRUE DIRECTION AND HUGS THE
CONFIGURATION 2 AND 4 BORDER. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TREND TOWARD FEW-SCT AOA 25K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AND AGAIN FROM
AROUND 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY FROM NEAR KBIH-KTPH WITH
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA ALONG
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 6K-10K FEET. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS AT 12 KTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...
AT 02Z AND AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THE CLUSTER OF
PREVIOUSLY SEVERE-WARNED STORMS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
THEN DRAPED SSW INTO THE SC UPSTATE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY ESE.
THE 00Z GSO RAOB SAMPLED THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENVIRONMENT THAT
SUPPORTED EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DIABATIC COOLING AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAVE SINCE DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO AROUND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS...AS
INDICATED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...WHILE AN AXIS OF A LITTLE
BETTER THAN 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER FAR EASTERN SC
AND SE NC...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A PERIOD OF MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW
THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY COLLAPSE SLOWLY SE WITH THE
SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A DEEP MOISTURE FEED IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LOW...FED BY THE CONFLUENCE
OF A PAIR OF MOIST PLUMES FROM BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST
PACIFIC...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST/UNCAPPED/AND (ALBEIT) WEAKLY
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT - ONE
SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE RE-GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND THIS LEAD ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND INDEED THE LATEST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SC/GA MAY
DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TOWARD MORNING.
NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK INSTABILITY...SO HEAVY RAIN AMIDST THE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PROVE THE LONE HAZARD. OTHERWISE...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA ON TUE SHOULD CONTINUE A SIMILAR
TREND INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A LOW OVERCAST IS CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN/IN THE LINGERING WARM
SECTOR. LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S NEAR 70S S AND SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CEILINGS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER TO MUCH MORE THAN MVFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY. LIFT
GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP STEADY PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE TRIAD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE. POINTS EAST WILL STILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S HOWEVER. CHANCES
FOR LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
WET WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THU... WITH THE
SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO WED WITH A NARROW STABLE SURFACE
WEDGE OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN... ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE
DRIFTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER... INTO THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED (1000-2000 J/KG AREAWIDE ON THE
NAM... SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE GFS) WITH SIMILAR WEAK DPVA ROTATING
AROUND THE E/NE SIDE OF THE LOW... POSSIBLE UPPER DIVERGENCE (MAINLY
NE)... PW AROUND 150% OF NORMAL... AND ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE GENERATING THE
GREATEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE ERN AND NRN SECTIONS...
NEAREST THE BOUNDARY... REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING TO WORK INTO SW SECTIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED (SW) TO NUMEROUS (ELSEWHERE) SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS... PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE WEDGE
AXIS... AND FACTORING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP... WILL KEEP HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL... MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ABOVE NORMAL PW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... WILL TREND
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN BUT NOT OUT THU NIGHT AS THE BY-NOW-WEAKENING
UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN CLIMO FRI... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ZONE ALL PUSH
SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
DISPERSE BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... BUT ONCE THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS BREAKS UP AND LIFTS... WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST... BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN FORCING
FOR ASCENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WILL KEEP NEAR-CLIMO 30-40%
CHANCES MAINLY EAST. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LATE-DAY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION... WHICH MAY
DROP SLOWLY SE INTO THE NW CWA LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRI NIGHT BASED ON THE WEAK NW FLOW. WE`RE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
FRIDAY`S MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY (OR ITS REMNANT MCV) DROP THROUGH THE
WRN/CENTRAL OH VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH AT THIS PACE THIS FEATURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
TO AFFECT US ON SAT. AT ANY RATE... WILL INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NW CWA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.
IF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV COMES TO PASS AND MOVES AS MODELS
SUGGEST... IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT...
POTENTIALLY RELOADING THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BUT WITH THE OVERALL NOAM AND WRN ATLANTIC FLOW WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING AT THESE LATITUDES FRI/SAT... IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
AND TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. BY SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE POTENT NRN STREAM ENERGY ESE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUN/MON... AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LIKELY INCREASING SHEAR ENOUGH
OVER OUR AREA FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF STORMS MON INTO TUE. AFTER
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY (BEHIND THE POTENTIAL DEPARTING
MCV BUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH)... THE GFS DEPICTS RISING
MUCAPE VALUES EACH DAY MON/TUE TO 1000-2500 J/KG. WILL RAMP UP LATE-
DAY STORM CHANCES (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG) MON/TUE. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64
LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE CEILINGS DROP...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS. AT KRDU AND
KRWI...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS MAY LIFT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IF SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY LOCK IN THE LOW CEILINGS
LONGER THAN INDICATED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THAT WE
WILL SEE AN APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TODAY.
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE KFAY VICINITY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORMS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CONVECTION BY LATE
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THE SFC FRONT IS ABLE TO DRIFT INTO THE
SANDHILLS...THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NEWD
AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS OVERTAKES OUR
AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DID TONE DOWN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 22-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND RECENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS BLENDED
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND 20-22 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES PROPAGATING ATOP THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE. LATEST ITERATIONS OF HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE USED
THESE TO PAINT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS. STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE
IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THUS
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT AREA...BUT GENERALLY PLACEMENT TO THE
WEST AFTER THIS EVENING. WE DO START TO SEE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A CURVED UPPER
LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE AID OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING CAPE AND SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RATHER HEAVY
RAIN. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KDIK. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY TO MVFR AT KJMS
AND VFR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND 20-22 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES PROPAGATING ATOP THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE. LATEST ITERATIONS OF HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE USED
THESE TO PAINT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS. STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE
IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THUS
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT AREA...BUT GENERALLY PLACEMENT TO THE
WEST AFTER THIS EVENING. WE DO START TO SEE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A CURVED UPPER
LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE AID OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING CAPE AND SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RATHER HEAVY
RAIN. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KDIK. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY TO MVFR AT KJMS
AND VFR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD SHIELD OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. UPDATED SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SKY COVER NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.
THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KISN AND KMOT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND KDIK AND KBIS WILL LIFT QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO VFR. MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 20Z BEFORE LIFTING TO
LOW VFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD BE A PREIOD OF PATCHY FOG BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOG AT ANY SINGLE TAF SITE YET. LATER
SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. DIMINISHING NORTH FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SKY COVER NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.
THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POCKETS OF
IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z WHEN ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN ON LOWERING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ERODING THAT DECK. PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. AFTER THAT...VFR
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.
THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POCKETS OF
IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z WHEN ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN ON LOWERING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ERODING THAT DECK. PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. AFTER THAT...VFR
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
709 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD
AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90
AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL
A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO
WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT
MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29...
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH
BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE
TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML
CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT
DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A
NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL
THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY
WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION
WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS
OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND MVFR
CIELINGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SW
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE CONVECTION IN EASTERN NEBRASKA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KSUX. CONVECTION IN SW
NEBRASKA...IF IT CAN EXPAND FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS COULD AFFECT KSUX AFTER 04Z. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THIS EXPECTION TO STAY SOUTH OF KSUX SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN KSUX TAF. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP NEAR I90...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS AREA OF STORMS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOST MODELS KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH OF KHON AND
NORTH OF KFSD SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AROUND KFSD AND KSUX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT AND THEN
LIFT AFTER 15Z. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BLOB FEATURING LEADING
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND A WELL DEVELOPED STRATIFORM AREA/MESOHIGH.
COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT AT AN ACCELERATED
RATE EASTWARD...WORKING WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT THE
LEADING EDGE. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF CELLS THREATEN SOME SMALL HAIL
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG THE LEADING LINE...BUT MODE HAS BEEN
GENERALLY LOW CENTROID AND MINIMAL TIME SPENT WITH ANY ELEVATED
CORE. WILL SEE THE MCV WITH THIS CONVECTION TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD SW MN THROUGH MIDDAY. STRATIFORM
REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME HEADING TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
THIS UPPER CENTER SHOULD FOCUS AS LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDDAY AS IT EXITS THE AREA.
OVERALL...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGED BY FACT THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
REPLICATE REALITY. HOWEVER...SEEMS THAT RUC HAS MOST ACCURATE
PICTURE OF THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WELL
AS BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND BY LATE DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PACE
SOUTHEAST...SLOWING UP A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LOCATION NEAR A
KMJQ TO KLCG LINE. OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD...BUT
TREND OF 06Z NAM WAS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS TO WHERE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
FATHOM THE EXTREME INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ THAT SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND RATHER SEE THAT SLIGHT RIDGING
BEHIND MORNING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
LIMIT CONVECTION IN A ENVIRONMENT OF LESSER INSTABILITY. WILL KICK
UP THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH OF A VERMILLION TO WINDOM LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY EASE SOUTHWARD IN THE EVENING.
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL/WIND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK TO EXPECT THIS
TO BE THE CASE...WITH THE INSTABILITY VALUES ALREADY A BIT IN
QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IN LESSER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL IS A BIT STRONGER FOR
TONIGHT...AS DOMINANCE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN I-80 AND I-70 TO
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL MEAN THAT CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. MORE STABLE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MEAN MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ON THE MODERATE SIDE AS THE AREA IS A BIT DEEP INTO THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALSO PRETTY WEAK AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS MARGINAL
AT BEST. DOES AT LEAST LOOK WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THIS WAVE EXITING AND MORE ENERGY BUILDING UP FROM
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. NEITHER NEED VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS A WAVE INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO REAL
COOL AIR COMING DOWN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...MAINLY JUST
ENHANCED MIXING...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EACH DAY...LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT SOME SELF DISTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE ON THE BACK EDGE OF
COMPLEX- LEADING TO A SCATTERED-BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES IN THE 2-3K FOOT LEVEL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WITH SHORT DAYS AND OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...WAS NOT READY TO ADD MENTION IN THE
TAFS. EASTERLY FLOW AND STRATUS BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
658 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BLOB FEATURING LEADING
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND A WELL DEVELOPED STRATIFORM AREA/MESOHIGH.
COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT AT AN ACCELERATED
RATE EASTWARD...WORKING WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT THE
LEADING EDGE. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF CELLS THREATEN SOME SMALL HAIL
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG THE LEADING LINE...BUT MODE HAS BEEN
GENERALLY LOW CENTROID AND MINIMAL TIME SPENT WITH ANY ELEVATED
CORE. WILL SEE THE MCV WITH THIS CONVECTION TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD SW MN THROUGH MIDDAY. STRATIFORM
REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME HEADING TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
THIS UPPER CENTER SHOULD FOCUS AS LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDDAY AS IT EXITS THE AREA.
OVERALL...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGED BY FACT THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
REPLICATE REALITY. HOWEVER...SEEMS THAT RUC HAS MOST ACCURATE
PICTURE OF THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WELL
AS BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND BY LATE DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PACE
SOUTHEAST...SLOWING UP A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LOCATION NEAR A
KMJQ TO KLCG LINE. OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD...BUT
TREND OF 06Z NAM WAS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS TO WHERE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
FATHOM THE EXTREME INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ THAT SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND RATHER SEE THAT SLIGHT RIDGING
BEHIND MORNING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
LIMIT CONVECTION IN A ENVIRONMENT OF LESSER INSTABILITY. WILL KICK
UP THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH OF A VERMILLION TO WINDOM LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY EASE SOUTHWARD IN THE EVENING.
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL/WIND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK TO EXPECT THIS
TO BE THE CASE...WITH THE INSTABILITY VALUES ALREADY A BIT IN
QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IN LESSER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL IS A BIT STRONGER FOR
TONIGHT...AS DOMINANCE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN I-80 AND I-70 TO
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL MEAN THAT CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. MORE STABLE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MEAN MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ON THE MODERATE SIDE AS THE AREA IS A BIT DEEP INTO THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALSO PRETTY WEAK AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS MARGINAL
AT BEST. DOES AT LEAST LOOK WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THIS WAVE EXITING AND MORE ENERGY BUILDING UP FROM
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. NEITHER NEED VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS A WAVE INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO REAL
COOL AIR COMING DOWN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...MAINLY JUST
ENHANCED MIXING...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EACH DAY...LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MCV ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CARRY ALONG A CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MODELS DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH THE ENTIRE SCENARIO...AND
BIGGEST AVIATION ISSUE NOT COVERED WELL IS THE MASS OF LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD...
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONGLOMERATION OF CIGS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR EAST CLOUDS WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF IFR/MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME REDUCTION IN
VIS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV/KCSV...AS WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF ANY CLOUDS TONIGHT AS ANY
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE 18Z.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS
ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO AM UPDATING THE
GRIDS AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WE`LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT SCATTER OUT,
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT, SO WILL ISSUE A FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE CHANGE IN
SKY CONDITION.
ALSO TAKING OUT THE EVENING POP`S WE HAD FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THAT THE RADAR SCOPE HAS BEEN PPINE ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT
LATER ON TONIGHT, SO WE`LL LEAVE THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 03/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will predominate across area terminals through
04/12Z. Isolated thunderstorms should develop over the Davis
Mountains this afternoon; however, the chances of thunderstorms
impacting KFST and KPEQ are low enough to preclude mention in this
forecast. We should see a brief period of IFR to LIFR cigs at KMAF
beginning around 04/12Z. Southerly winds AOA 12 kts will continue
at all terminals except KCNM through the overnight hours.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TCU are developing over and east of the Davis Mountains, in line
with the past several HRRR runs, the NSSL WRF run, and other
parameterized models. No radar returns yet. Isolated convection
moving east off the mountains may ingest MLCAPEs of around 2500
to 3000 J/kg; however, forecast soundings also point to LFCs
around 10kft to 12kft. Low level convergence along the surface
trough/dryline is expected to be weak, so do not expect this to be
a big focus for deep convection. Deep layer shear is quite modest
as well, thus updrafts (if they can punch through warm 700 hPa
temperatures of 12-14C) will have a hard time maintaining temporal
integrity. As a result, further convective development over
northern Brewster and western Pecos counties later this afternoon
will be driven by potentially cold pools from earlier convection.
It is interesting to note that KMAF`s dewpoint is holding in the
mid 60s at present, higher than any of the model forecasts.
Secondly, there`s been net positive equivalent potential
temperature rises over most of the Permian Basin in the last three
hours. Should dewpoints should mix down into the upper 50s this
afternoon, sufficient CIN will suppress convection across the
Permian Basin. However, the last several HRRR model runs point to
convective initiation near or south of KMAF around 23Z. Hmm. In
any event, convective threats this afternoon and early this
evening will be restricted to gusty winds (owing to the depth of
the sub-cloud layer) and lightning.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.
BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 94 61 93 / 0 10 0 10
TULIA 63 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 95 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 65 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 63 96 63 94 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 65 96 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MORE HUMID WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT WITH A STRONGER BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER AND ALMOST BLOCKY SOUTHERN
STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS...THEN SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE BRANCHES WL OCCUR. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GENERAL WNWLY UPR FLOW ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...FM A BROAD RIDGE OUT WEST TO A TROF OVER THE
ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS DURING THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS GENERATING
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER NW...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE GROWING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOME OF THESE BREAKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUD TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE EVENING...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH IT. THINK BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ARRIVE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING...SO TOOK
OUT OF THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MUGGY UNTIL THE WINDS
KICK UP. LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND DRY AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE INROADS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE BRISK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH AROUND 70 NORTH AND
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. KEPT SKYCON LOW FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLDS ROTG ARND THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THEN BECOMES DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHRTWV CROSSES THE
RGN. THE SYSTEM WL LIKLEY DRAW IN AT LEAST SOME ENERGY FM THE
WEAKENING SRN STREAM...AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A CYCLONE ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SET
UP FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY LATE SAT NGT/SUN MORNING AS LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED ACRS THE
AREA. ONCE THAT SHIFTS E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. BUT
THAT WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW
MUCH DEBRIS CLDS LINGER FM THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. WITH A LOT
OF UNKNOWNS...JUST OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED
FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
MILD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN AS SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNWLY UPR FLOW CROSS THE
RGN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND VFR CONDITIONS IN OTHERS. THE
LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF RHINELANDER
AND ALSO NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
RDM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
738 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MORE HUMID WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT WITH A STRONGER BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER AND ALMOST BLOCKY SOUTHERN
STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS...THEN SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE BRANCHES WL OCCUR. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GENERAL WNWLY UPR FLOW ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...FM A BROAD RIDGE OUT WEST TO A TROF OVER THE
ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS DURING THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS GENERATING
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER NW...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE GROWING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOME OF THESE BREAKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUD TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE EVENING...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH IT. THINK BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ARRIVE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING...SO TOOK
OUT OF THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MUGGY UNTIL THE WINDS
KICK UP. LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND DRY AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE INROADS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE BRISK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH AROUND 70 NORTH AND
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. KEPT SKYCON LOW FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLDS ROTG ARND THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THEN BECOMES DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHRTWV CROSSES THE
RGN. THE SYSTEM WL LIKLEY DRAW IN AT LEAST SOME ENERGY FM THE
WEAKENING SRN STREAM...AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A CYCLONE ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SET
UP FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY LATE SAT NGT/SUN MORNING AS LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED ACRS THE
AREA. ONCE THAT SHIFTS E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. BUT
THAT WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW
MUCH DEBRIS CLDS LINGER FM THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. WITH A LOT
OF UNKNOWNS...JUST OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED
FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
MILD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN AS SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNWLY UPR FLOW CROSS THE
RGN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVED BY. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN OR FORM LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM LATER TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.
RDM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND RIDGING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVES OF
NOTE TOPPING THE RIDGE INCLUDE: ONE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND TWO OTHERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
THESE LATTER SHORTWAVES WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET... CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THESE WERE ALSO ON
A WARM FRONT SET UP NEAR I-70. CLOSER TO HOME...DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT SAME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS DECK IS
FINALLY MIXING OUT. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C PER 12Z RAOBS COMBINED
WITH THE SUN HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT UP INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFY. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE IMPACT TO OUR AREA FROM THIS UPPER FLOW CHANGE IS TO PUT US IN
MORE NORTHWEST FLOW...FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND THE BUILD IN OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THUS A DRY
FORECAST WOULD SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE TWO CONCERNS.
THE FIRST IS THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...
LIKELY INITIATING CONVECTION ON ITS NOSE WITH AID FROM THE NEBRASKA
SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MESOSCALE
MODELS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS LOOKS LIKELY...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD SAY THE MCS WOULD TRAVEL INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FROM
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH WANT TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
STORMS NORTH OF THE MCS. THESE APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS PUSHING EAST. HAVE HELD ONTO 15-25 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH ANOTHER MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION...THE 04.12Z
HIRES-ARW...KEEPS THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SEEMS
VERY PLAUSIBLE.
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES UP...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL ABOUT 2C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WITH
MORE SUN ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS
THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEARING OUT FRIDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN WI SHOULD ALLOW
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. 50S ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...CERTAINLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND 5KM DOWNSCALED NAM
ALREADY WANT TO SPREAD CONVECTION INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ITS WORTH NOTING...THOUGH...THAT A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH FOR
PRECIPITATION...THUS THE FORECAST 60-70 CHANCES...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST THE STORMS TO SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
WI. MEANWHILE...AN MCS COULD EASILY FORM IN WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY
EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE 04.12Z ECMWF AND ITS PAST RUNS. CORFIDI
VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD SUPPORT
THE MCS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST IA...THUS THE SPLIT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
A DEEP TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT BEING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE 04.12Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER TROUGH...HAVE SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN WI. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO 12-14C. THESE ARE STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER RESUMES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AT LEAST 14-18C...
BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN FACT...IF THE 04.12Z EC
PANS OUT WITH 850MB TEMPS TRYING TO REACH 18-20C LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME PLACES COULD PUSH THE UPPER 80S...MAKING IT THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ITS COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM AND REFLECTED AS SUCH IN THE
FORECAST. THE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS NEW TROUGHING MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH 7 PLUS DAYS OUT...LATE
NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE 3000 FT AGL AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL KEEP 5SM IN
BR NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND PERIODS OF
CLEARING. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH 06.06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS
HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN.
THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING
MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I-
70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF.
NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING.
IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG
JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL
AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD
THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE
03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING
TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP
MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z
CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP
AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW
THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE
STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND
THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO.
TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE IS SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. MIXED
SIGNAL AMONG ALL THE FCST MODELS HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS PRODUCED...
WHICH LOWERS FCST CONFIDENCE...AS THE FORCING/LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THIS...AND MORE SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED...LEFT CONVECTION
MENTION IN TAFS AS A PERIOD OF VCTS/CB FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VCSH
WITH CIGS MAINLY IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
BAND OF SCT CONVECTION AND BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...WITH SCT 2K-3K FT CLOUDS
DURING MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. PLENTY
OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IN NORTHERN MN/EASTERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW...
WITH THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE KRST/KLSE
AREAS NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWEST. DRYING/MIXING THEN LOOKS TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THU.
THAT SAID...LATEST MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS FAVOR PUSHING THE
CURRENT AREA OF SHRA/TS FROM SOUTHERN MN/IA EASTWARD. AS IT DOES
THOUGH...IT WILL START TO RUN OUT OF A FAVORABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. COULD IMPACT KRST FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT LIKELY STAY WEST OF
KLSE.
IN THE AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY AXIS RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
THIS...FIRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TS. SOME MESO MODELS SUGGEST THE
MAIN MASS WOULD STAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...AND COULD IMPACT
KRST/KLSE.
COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE LOWER ON WHEN THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL NOT ADD TO
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME HINTS THAT LOWER/MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES IN. THIS MATCHES WITH LATEST
FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. SOME MVFR VSBY TOO. UNCERTAIN THAT
IT WOULD REACH KRST BEFORE 12Z SO WILL NOT ADD...BUT THE POTENTIAL
WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE WHILE GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. OBS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK ENE
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS
THE MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/WRF/NMM...AND ALSO THE GFS ALL
TRACK THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THESE MODELS TAKE THE AREA OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ELEVATED CAPES WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 400
J/KG...PWATS WILL REACH UP TO 1.70 INCHES AND FORCING WILL BE DECENT
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CREATE SWATHS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF QPF...AND THIS
LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE.
AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRDS SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDELY
SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHER
THAN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
CLEAR OUT FIRST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS OTHER AREAS
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TO THE LOWER
70S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO TRIM BACK NOTABLY ON POPS AS IT APPEARS NOW THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD...WITH THE NAM NOT
THAT FAR OFF EXCEPT THAT IT HUNG ONTO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
PRECIPTATION WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GENERALLY IGNORED THE
NAM QPF THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CAN EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 70S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST EARLY SUNDAY AS
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
MAXIMUM QPF...ONE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN-UPPER MICHIGAN
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER OVER
IOWA...NEAR ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANING THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS FAR OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR THE DETAILS TO
EMERGE MORE CLEARLY. CURRENT TIMIMG WOULD SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
THE DAY.
THEN AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTUBANCE...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TOWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...BRINIGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN
ELUSIVE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE...MOSTLY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TAKE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. OTHER MESO MODELS
ARE COMING ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY IN
THE TAFS THOUGH DETAILS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1042 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND AGREE
THAT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED...THUS THE
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. 00Z NAM SHOWS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE PRECIPITATION FREE. BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES
UP IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT...THUS AREAS
OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO KIMBALL LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE WEATHER AS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER CELLS SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUSK WYOMING TO BRIDGEPORT
NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AN MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...NOT MUCH GOING ON SINCE
DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY MOVED INTO MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...AND EVEN CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LI/S...LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE 12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE NEW 18Z NAM IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
HOWEVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...SO THE QUESTION IS HOW DEEP WILL THIS SATURATED LAYER BE
AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ACTUALLY SUPPRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT. IT MAY STAY CLOUD UP AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE
RANGE...BUT BELIEVE THE DEPTH WILL BE SHALLOW. SUNSHINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...A CAP INVERSION BELOW 700MB
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION INITIALLY...BUT ONCE THIS CAP IS ERODEDTHE
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL VERY RAPID ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE OR JUST WEST. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL DUE TO THE RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE TSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
REMAINS IN PLACE. SUBTLE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WILL DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH GENERALLY EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS. THE MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES BUT WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MANY
NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY FROM KAIA TO KDGW TO KRWL AT 10 PM.
THIS FRONT WILL LAY UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT HIGH FOR KCYS AND KSNY TO GO DOWN IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS 09Z. NOT SO MUCH FOR KCDR...KAIA AND KBFF.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BE WIDESPREAD
INTO EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AIRPORTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH GREEN
FUELS AND A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS DRIEST DAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE TODAY WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS WEEK AS UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS LIMIT THEIR RELEASES. HOWEVER...MITCHELL WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM
HENRY TO MINATARE WILL REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
RIVER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT
LARAMIE...WITH LEVELS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON
FRIDAY. STAGE AT FORT LARAMIE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE
HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF
ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM
AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO
REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY
AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 86 67 90 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 67 92 71 93 / 0 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 67 86 67 88 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 91 72 91 / 0 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 68 91 71 91 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 87 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 69 87 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 69 90 71 91 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 90 70 91 / 10 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 67 88 66 90 / 10 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 71 88 70 90 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1040 PM MST THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A RARE EARLY JUNE RAIN
EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY. RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANDRES NY A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST BROUGHT A
RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (FOR EARLY JUNE) TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE (PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH) AND DECENT LIFT FROM A 40-50KT JET
MAX ROTATING INTO THE REGION PRODUCED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS SAW
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...MOST PLACES SAW GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO HELPED TO
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE 80S AND RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES
MODEL RUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO GILA AND EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL COUNTIES
BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...HAVE MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND DROP HIGH TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A PRETTY
CLOUDY DAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FROM JUST EAST OF YUMA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
GRADUALLY THICKENED AND NOW IS PROVIDING FAIRLY OVERCAST SKIES IN A
NARROW BAND...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CENTERED NEAR KSFO HAS HELPED TO PULL UP THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
WHAT WAS PART OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO
NORTHEAST ARIZONA IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE...THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET...AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS STARTED SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. AT THIS POINT...THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY RESULTING IN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES DUE TO VERY DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LATEST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY QUITE WELL AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND THEN MORE STEADY RAIN BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING IS A FAIRLY NARROW RAIN BAND WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF PHOENIX...AFFECTING MOSTLY GILA AND PINAL
COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE
00-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ABOVE AN INCH AND VALUES OF IVT ARE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AND GIVEN THAT IT HAS NEVER RAINED ON JUNE 5TH IN
PHOENIX...ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ALONG WITH SPC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BREEZY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAR
WEST AS MARICOPA COUNTY AS STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS
IN AN AREA OF VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY...THOUGH
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
A RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AGAIN HELPING TO PROPEL THE
REMAINS OF DISSIPATING TC BLANCA NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO POINTS TO THE INCEPTION OF THE
MONSOON HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AT LEAST SOME INFLUX OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO AZ. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARDS
THE 60TH PERCENTILE OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE...WHICH MORE OR LESS
EQUATES TO ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT TUESDAY-THURSDAY...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ANDRES TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM
COULD AFFECT ONE..OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FRIDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANDRES REMAINS OFF TO THE
EAST. GUSY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPT TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS
TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAKENING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE OVER OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TO STAY BELOW 15 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BOTH DAYS WITH
JUST A BIT OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE BLANCA MAY MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE
AREA...AND LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH
CONDITIONS EACH DAY MAY BE UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS EACH DAY BUT MAY FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY SHOULD
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ELEVATED EACH DAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS RUNNING ABOVE 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDTIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE EXPECTED
MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST
AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY AIR ABOVE A CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W-SW
OF OUR COUNTIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING.
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
WILL END UP BECOMING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE N-NW INITIALLY, THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS BEGUN TO INDICATE. WE
WENT WITH A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORM CHANCES FOR NOW, BUT THAT CAN
BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MVFR FOG LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BASED
ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR WIND
PATTERNS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED NOT LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND WIND SHIFT THIS
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS OF
520Z. ANOTHER STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH WITHIN
1-1.5 HOURS OF SUNRISE. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
DROP TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE THIS
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY...WITH
IFR VISIBILITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LAKE MI BEING A
SOURCE FOR FOG. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN SUPPORT THIS.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE SPECIFIC BEGIN TIME OF THIS EVEN
FURTHER LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVEN EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS. THE
CIGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH CERTAINLY SOME LIFTING LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO IFR SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY...MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS AND
DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TODAY AND IN TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS ARRIVING. MEDIUM IN HOW FAR THESE WILL DROP. LOW ON
DURATION.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE BY DAYBREAK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING HIGH OVER ONTARIO.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STEERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE AREAS...SOON AFTER DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS FOG MAY BE
TEMPORARILY DENSE...IT IS LIKELY TO ONLY LAST 2-4 HOURS AS DRIER
AIR CATCHES UP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY JUST
HANDLE WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF INDEED IT MATERIALIZES.
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. THE
MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THAT TIME FOR BOTH THE GUSTS AND SOME WAVES BUILDING
INTO THAT 4-5 FT CATEGORY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MODESTLY DEEP LOW FOR JUNE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL STEER A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH
SOME GUSTY STORMS TOO...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
STRONG...THANKS TO THE LOW MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
851 PM CDT
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ON TMKE RADAR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH A
MORE TEMPERED DROP INLAND. LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIM AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE GRIDS. ORGANIZING MCS(S) OVER THE
PLAINS COULD BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BUT LOOK
LIKELY TO STAY MORE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN CURRENT GRIDDED
TIMING...SO ALSO DECREASED POPS TOMORROW MORNING. A FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY
SUMMER DAY ALONG THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED NOT LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND WIND SHIFT THIS
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS OF
520Z. ANOTHER STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH WITHIN
1-1.5 HOURS OF SUNRISE. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
DROP TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE THIS
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CIGS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY...WITH
IFR VISIBILITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LAKE MI BEING A
SOURCE FOR FOG. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN SUPPORT THIS.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE SPECIFIC BEGIN TIME OF THIS EVEN
FURTHER LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVEN EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS. THE
CIGS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH CERTAINLY SOME LIFTING LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO IFR SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY...MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS AND
DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TODAY AND IN TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS ARRIVING. MEDIUM IN HOW FAR THESE WILL DROP. LOW ON
DURATION.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR/DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...TSRA/AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/DRY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/DRY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF STORMS DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE
LATEST NAM GUIDANCE EVEN DELAYS PRECIP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW CELLS BUBBLING
UP LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT ALSO KEEPS THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
NOW APPEARS OUR MAIN TRIGGER FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO
WILL REDUCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DELAYED ONSET OF
STORM CHANCES. WILL PULL BACK ON POPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL, SINCE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55 ALREADY AT 12Z.
TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CIRRUS HELPING TO
KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AS OUR AREA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI.
20Z/2PM MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS PARTICULAR BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
GREATLY...WITH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING IT INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH
DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KEEPS IT WEST OF ILLINOIS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. THINK THE ACTUAL SOLUTION MAY FOCUS ON
STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THIS ACTIVITY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN WELL TO THE W/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY. HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS
REDEVELOPING ON THE OLD OUTFLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS PUSHES THROUGH THERE WILL BE DRY
WEATHER FOR A PERIOD LAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER MCS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SO A CHANCE OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR MON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-72.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HUMID WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THE FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE LESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY AIR ABOVE A CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W-SW
OF OUR COUNTIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING.
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
WILL END UP BECOMING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE N-NW INITIALLY, THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS BEGUN TO INDICATE. WE
WENT WITH A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORM CHANCES FOR NOW, BUT THAT CAN
BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MVFR FOG LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BASED
ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR WIND
PATTERNS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
222 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY
SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER IOWA. IF
THIS COMES ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE COMMON HABIT OF CONVECTION IN
SUCH SITUATIONS FOLLOWING THICKNESSES...IT WONT GET NEAR INDIANA
TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH NOW PREDICT A DRY
NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WERE DRY TO BOOT. NOTHING
SUPPORTS RAIN ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT WAS
BASED ON A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS
ON THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL MAIN FEATURES ARE CAPTURED WELL.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SET TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SWINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ANY SURFACE HEATING IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZE. WHILE BL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WAVE AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE FINE ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY PULSE IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES. HELD CLOUD COVER UP JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. IN TIME THOUGH...A DRIER E/NE FLOW SHOULD ERODE
THE INVERSION WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER 850MB JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL PRESENT A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...FIRST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAVMOS GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH E/NE WINDS
BUT STILL A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SNEAKY WARM FOR THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE INTO
THE 18-19C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPECTRUM IN BRINGING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHARP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY...SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN.
MODELS THEN KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PER
THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
MIDWEEK AND MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK.
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE /...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT EARLY THIS MORNING AT OUTLYING SITES WHERE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT REMAIN AT VFR LEVEL.
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONDUCIVE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MID MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY
SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MESO CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER IOWA. IF
THIS COMES ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE COMMON HABIT OF CONVECTION IN
SUCH SITUATIONS FOLLOWING THICKNESSES...IT WONT GET NEAR INDIANA
TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH NOW PREDICT A DRY
NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WERE DRY TO BOOT. NOTHING
SUPPORTS RAIN ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT WAS
BASED ON A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS
ON THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL MAIN FEATURES ARE CAPTURED WELL.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SET TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SWINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED BACK INTO THE
REGION AND ANY SURFACE HEATING IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZE. WHILE BL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WAVE AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE FINE ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY PULSE IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES. HELD CLOUD COVER UP JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. IN TIME THOUGH...A DRIER E/NE FLOW SHOULD ERODE
THE INVERSION WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER 850MB JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL PRESENT A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...FIRST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAVMOS GUIDANCE OVERALL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH E/NE WINDS
BUT STILL A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SNEAKY WARM FOR THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE INTO
THE 18-19C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WENT MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER INTO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE /...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT EARLY THIS MORNING AT OUTLYING SITES WHERE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT REMAIN AT VFR LEVEL.
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONDUCIVE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MID MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 12 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A SIGNIFICANT REVISION HAS BEEN DONE TO THE FORECAST.
RADAR TRENDS...IN COMBINATION OF WHAT SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING AND 00Z UA DATA...SUPPORT GOING DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AROUND KMCI AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SHOULD SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE AND COMBINE OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS ALONG WITH FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO THEM
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA OR AT THE VERY WORST BRUSHING PARTS
OF SCOTLAND/CLARK COUNTIES IN MISSOURI TOWARD MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION EAST OF KFSD IS A
CONCERN. RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SHOW IT AS OVERLY ROBUST AND
WEAKENING WITH SUNSET.
SO MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF TRENDS FROM
THE RAP CONTINUE...THAT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN
DRY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 23Z AND FROM THE 18Z UKMET/GFS/WRF...
INCLUDING TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL...DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS.
THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHERE WILL THE NEW MCS TRACK. MCS TOOL
APPLIED TO SEVERAL MODELS IS SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE
UPDATE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SYNOPSIS...QUIET DAY ACROSS THE DVN CWA TODAY BUT DEFINITELY WARM
AND HUMID WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA AND EXTENDED FROM
THE KS/NE BORDER TO CENTRAL MO WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WAS WEAKENING ACROSS MO BUT WAS STRENGTHENING IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN NORTHERN KANSAS SBCAPES WERE AS HIGH AS
5000 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM HELICITIES OF 500 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IGNITE A
SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MCS WILL THEN TRACK/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. ONCE AGAIN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE
MCS WILL TRACK. THE HRRR/ARW HI-RES MESO MODELS AND THE NAM KEEPS
THE MCS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS BRINGS IT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOCAL MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES THE MCS
WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER PWATS. I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE SOUTH BUT ONLY SMALL POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A DECREASING TREND IN POPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF NOW THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
MCS AND ASSUMING IT EVEN IMPACTS THE DVN CWA IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
DEPARTING MCS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LOWERING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN OUR
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS ASSUMING THE
MCS IMPACTS THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
CONCERN TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WITH COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE PAST FEW NIGHTS OF CONVECTION
ILLUSTRATE BL TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO QUICK CONVECTION INITIATION
AND THEN TOO FAR TO THE INFLOW OR SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUPPORTS MATURE
CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT
SUNDAY LATE PM.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL DISPLACING MOST CONVECTION TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH...OR INFLOW SIDE. PERSISTENCE AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SUPPORTS
A 60/40 MIX OF GFS WITH HI-RES ECMWF.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY TO DRY WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY. MINS MIDDLE 50S NE TO LOWER 60S IN SW SECTIONS AND HIGHS
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY POPS WITH BEST CHANCES OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. LOW RISK
OF SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LATE AT NIGHT. MINS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SUNDAY...COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH SUNSHINE TO BE REACHED AROUND 3 TO 4 PM
WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 TO RECEIVE STORMS
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 1500+ TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR ISOLATED 1
INCH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH BASED ON T/TD OF 85/65
OR MORE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK NW FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR IN
THE 80 TO 85+ RANGE AND LOWS MOSTLY 60 TO 65+ RANGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE
55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR VSBYS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KDBQ WHERE DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
AREA. AFT 12Z/05 ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
KBRL MIGHT SEE A VCSH OR VCTS AFT 16Z/05 BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
NOT HIGH.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NNE WIND AT SAW IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT THIS LOCATION THRU SUNRISE. SINCE SOME DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AND THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT PRESENT AS
STRONG AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...CONDITIONS THERE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO FALL BLO MVFR. THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE VEERED ENUF AT IWD TO
LIMIT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THERE...BUT IFR CIGS WL STILL OCCUR AT
TIMES DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. AS THE STEADY N FLOW TO THE S OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRI
DURING DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING FOG WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR WX BY LATE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-
248>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THAT WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FRI NIGHT. THIS TROUGH
THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN. NAM BRINGS IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN INTO THE CWA.
KEPT IN SOME FROST FOR FRI NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES TO DROP INTO THE MID
30S. KEPT FRI NIGHT AND SAT DRY FOR NOW AND THEN HAVE POPS COMING IN
SAT NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS COMING INTO THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT
AND OVERSPREADING THE CWA ON SUN. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE.
THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z TUE AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND SLOWS DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT ON THU AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES PARALLEL WITH IT WHICH SHOULD STALL THIS FRONT JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MON...THEN DRY FOR TUE AND
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FRONTS IN THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NNE WIND AT SAW IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT THIS LOCATION THRU SUNRISE. SINCE SOME DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AND THE LLVL FLOW WL NOT PRESENT AS
STRONG AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...CONDITIONS THERE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO FALL BLO MVFR. THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE VEERED ENUF AT IWD TO
LIMIT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THERE...BUT IFR CIGS WL STILL OCCUR AT
TIMES DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. AS THE STEADY N FLOW TO THE S OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO NW ONTARIO ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRI
DURING DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING FOG WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR WX BY LATE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-
248>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MN
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI SHOULD
KEEP THINGS LARGELY VFR THERE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SPORADIC
REPORTS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THERE AS
MIXING BEGINS. REMOVED THE VCTS AT RWF WITH A DECLINING CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COMPARED TO EARLIER THINKING ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
KMSP...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS ARE HOVERING NEAR
MVFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SUCH
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FL025 HOWEVER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
...Another Thunderstorm Complex Moving into the Area Later This
Morning...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Line of convection was taking aim at central MO late this evening
with more scattered showers and isolated thunder out ahead of
it, extending down into Polk county. We have gone overcast at SGF
around 5000 feet within the last hour. Have gone with VCTS wording
in the TAF at SGF, but not convinced about other sites at this
point. Main area of convection with the linear system should
remain north of the terminal locations. Have some MVFR light fog
in for SGF/BBG overnight, otherwise expecting VFR conditions at
the terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
218 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Forecast for early this morning has been updated to account for
ongoing precip with embedded thunder stretching from NW MO into NE
KS. Ongoing severe weather, primarily with observed and reported severe
and damaging winds across portions of central KS as a line extends
from east-central KS westward into the center of the state, has
prompted a watch across a couple of counties in the southwestern
portion of this forecast area. As this line sags south and east,
it appears to continue to feed on localized instability, along
with maximized area of effective bulk shear. Additionally, LLJ has
been ramping up tonight with the line feeding right into it.
Question mark on how this line may affect this forecast area
locally will be the evolution of the cold pool with this feature.
One other concern to keep an eye on is the moderate to heavy rain
currently riding the border of this forecast area, and monitoring
if it stays together to reach the KC metro area. With FFG already
so low, flooding could very quickly become an issue once more,
especially in urban areas given the quick runoff.
UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWA overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.
Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.
Friday`s forecast is highly dependent on how tonight`s storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.
Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Second complex of heavy rain producing thunderstorms over northern KS
continue to propagate southward with some eastward extension through
northwest and west central MO. Current thinking is strongest storms
with heaviest rains will bypass the terminals. However, stratiform
rain with embedded thunder will occasional affect all of the
terminals overnight. Expect the convective activity to exit the
terminals by mid morning with considerable mid level cloud cover
gradually dissolving. Overall VFR conditions although KIXD could see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings/visibilities should the northern KS
activity turn towards the southeast.
There should be a considerable break in the rain chances from late
morning through the afternoon. Still some concern thunderstorms could
once again affect northern and possibly west central MO Friday
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...lg/MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWa overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.
Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.
Friday`s forecast is highly dependent on how tonight`s storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.
Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Second complex of heavy rain producing thunderstorms over northern KS
continue to propagate southward with some eastward extension through
northwest and west central MO. Current thinking is strongest storms
with heaviest rains will bypass the terminals. However, stratiform
rain with embedded thunder will occasional affect all of the
terminals overnight. Expect the convective activity to exit the
terminals by mid morning with considerable mid level cloud cover
gradually dissolving. Overall VFR conditions although KIXD could see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings/visibilities should the northern KS
activity turn towards the southeast.
There should be a considerable break in the rain chances from late
morning through the afternoon. Still some concern thunderstorms could
once again affect northern and possibly west central MO Friday
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
401 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOUNT FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW HIGH FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIDESPREAD CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -6 AND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. INGREDIENT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THE NAM
PLACES UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BIG SHEEP
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS MAX PRECIP AXIS RUNS FROM GLASGOW NE THROUGH
SCOBEY. THE EC MAX IS EARLIER OVER GARFIELD COUNTY. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BLEND THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING LESSER
AMOUNTS IN A VARIETY OF LOCATIONS. SO...BEST WE CAN SAY IS
SOMEWHERE IN NE MONTANA...A HEAVY RAIN STORM OR TWO WILL BE
SOMEWHERE BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY UNTIL IT
SHOWS UP ON RADAR DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND CALMER WEATHER FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND CALM EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CUT OFF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW DRY DAYS. UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL NORTH...ONLY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
RECONNECT WITH THE OPEN TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFTS
THE UPPER FLOW INTO MONTANA TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE TROF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. UPPER FLOW NOW EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DRIER
FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUD OVER THE REGION COULD DROP
CEILINGS TO MVFR. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OFFICIALS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY REPORT THAT MCDONALD CREEK AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT REPEATED RAINFALL IN
THE AREA. ONE MORE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO KEEP CREEK LEVELS HIGH FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTY UNTIL 915 THIS
MORNING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH UPDATED INFORMATION.
MICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1154 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY
OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LEWISTOWN AREA
UNTIL 07Z FRI...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 20Z FRI. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND IN THE LEWISTOWN AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BRUSDA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR THE LEWISTOWN AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE IS
CAUSING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO EXCEED 40 KTS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. NUTTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES AND WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PUT THE STATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 72 50 75 / 20 40 20 10
CTB 43 73 45 76 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 53 74 53 77 / 30 50 40 10
BZN 48 72 48 72 / 40 50 50 30
WEY 38 67 39 66 / 30 70 40 40
DLN 47 69 49 70 / 40 50 40 30
HVR 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 50 69 51 72 / 30 50 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT FRIDAY
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1140 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY
OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LEWISTOWN AREA
UNTIL 07Z FRI...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 20Z FRI. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND IN THE LEWISTOWN AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE IS
CAUSING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO EXCEED 40 KTS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE DRYING
TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. NUTTER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES AND WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL PUT THE STATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COULSTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR THE LEWISTOWN AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BRUSDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 72 50 75 / 20 40 20 10
CTB 43 73 45 76 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 53 74 53 77 / 30 50 40 10
BZN 48 72 48 72 / 40 50 50 30
WEY 38 67 39 66 / 30 70 40 40
DLN 47 69 49 70 / 40 50 40 30
HVR 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 50 69 51 72 / 30 50 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT FRIDAY
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF KOFK/KOMA THROUGH THE VERY
SHORT TERM. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KLNK...AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT KLNK 07-10Z. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS SIMILAR TO LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
COULD ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE TAF PERIODS...BUT
AGAIN BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WILL OPT
TO LEAVE OUT UNTIL WE CAN BETTER DEFINE IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ065-066-
068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
138 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTH CWA. THE 02Z RUN OF
THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON PRECIP TRENDS...ODDLY
BETTER THAN LATER RUNS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER. ALSO DROPPED THE
TORNADO WATCH AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN
USA. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COMPLETE THIS ACTION TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN
ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
SURFACE: A SFC LOW WAS OVER SW KS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED
NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING
BEHIND THE MCS OVER ERN KS AND THE WRN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR NORTON KS. ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT.
AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
GRADUALLY SINK SE AND BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IT SHOULD MERGE WITH
OTHER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND BE ORIENTED FROM W-E NEAR I-70.
EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO CONT AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
AND EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THRU
ERN NEB/KS. OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
WITHOUT UPR SUPPORT...THESE STORMS PROBABLY WON`T SURVIVE THE TRIP
E.
PLEASE SEE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AS WELL AS THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS.
ALSO REFER TO MESO DISC 887.
HEAVY RAIN: SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH THE LLJ
SUGGESTS REPEATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE THE LLJ
DEVELOPS WITH CELL TRAINING POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM/FRI.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE MADDOX MESOHIGH-TYPE. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
IS A RED FLAG.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THEN
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY. THIS AT LEAST
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WIDESPREAD MODEL
DISCREPANCY WITH WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOW ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE
BOUNDARIES LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME FORECAST MODELS KEEP
THIS BOUNDARY OVER SOME PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN IF THAT MEANS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN
PUSHES BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE GENERAL AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE
LESS THAN 50/50 GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ADJUSTED AND FINE TUNED AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME
FRAME AND AFTER WE SEE HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH AT LEAST A TEMPORARY TREND
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE BRIEF DRY
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO CONVECTION NEARBY. KEPT VCTS AS
CONFIDENCE WOULD NOT BE HIGH FOR ANY KIND OF TIMING OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND VISIBILITY COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ061>064-073>077-
083>087.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT DOESN`T LOOK MUCH
LIKE JUNE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
IS PUSHING A LARGE BODY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH...MARION AND FLORENCE BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND COULD EVEN BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE CLOUD
DEPTH SHOULD BE GREATEST. LOOK FOR THIS CLOUDINESS TO BURN OFF
BETWEEN 830-1030 AM RESULTING IN A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK BY LATE
MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT NE TO A POSITION OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD BE FROM THE NW...WITH WARMING 850-500 MB TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE TO THE UPPER LOW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WEAKENING WITH TIME. A SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2-3
PM...BLOWING COUNTER TO THE MAINLY OFFSHORE WIND OTHERWISE IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SITUATION WHERE EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR WHERE
CONVERGING SEABREEZES WILL BE HELD NEARLY STATIONARY BY THE SYNOPTIC
WIND. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NSSL WRF MODEL SHOWS A PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS BEFORE: A SINGLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE FEAR. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNSUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE THIS
KIND OF FORCING TO GET CONVECTION GOING...AND THIS IS MY SINGLE
CONVECTIVE "FOCUS AREA" FOR THE DAY. HIGHS 80-84...WARMEST WEST OF I-
95.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 9 PM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS 64-68...WARMEST ON
THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A GOOD MIX FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY INLAND LATE AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY.
0-6KM SHEAR ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 17 KNOTS BUT NOT THE
LOWEST VALUE I HAVE SEEN EITHER SO SOME STRONG CELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD SPELL TROUBLE AS WELL. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. WITH PWS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
SUNDAY...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES TO MESH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH POWERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WE CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM THE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/INLAND TROUGH FORCED NUMBERS MONDAY TO GOOD
CHANCE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NUMBERS WITH READINGS SOME THREE TO SEVEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT IN BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO
IFR...ALTHOUGH I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR OVER THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING GIVEN TRENDS OBSERVED IN 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRATUS SHOULD MAKE
IT DOWN EVEN TO THE MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08-10Z...WITH
ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS IN IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT LIFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM
AND LBT AIRPORTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 12Z.
STRATUS WILL BREAK A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT INTO A
DIURNAL VFR CU LAYER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...TURNING TO THE S/SE
AT THE COAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
DARK...LEAVING RESIDUAL VFR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
EVENING IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A NARROW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH
WINDS AT 10-15 KT THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING VARIABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
SHOULD PREDOMINATE TONIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
FEATURE.
AS WE`VE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS A 2 FOOT 8-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE A SHORT (2-4 SECOND) WAVE THIS
MORNING FROM THE NORTH WINDS. THIS SHOULD DIE AWAY THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MAINLY JUST THE SWELL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS SATURDAY DICTATED
MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A NORTHEAST
FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS QUICKLY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SURGE OR
TWO THAT MAY INCREASE WINDS FURTHER AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND TO THE
INCREASE IN WINDS RISING FROM 2-3 FEET SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
AN ISOLATED FIVE FOOTER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A
SURGE OCCURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFIANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER VERY LATE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A HEALTHY 2-
4 FEET DEVELOPING UP FROM THE TEPID 1-3 FEET MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS BASED ON 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK SHOULD COVER ALL AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE...MARION AND
MYRTLE BEACH BY 5-6 AM. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED EFFECT OF
INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS...SO I HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND NORTH BREEZE...SO IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT
THE REGION MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST
TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE
REGION WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG LIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORCING WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND BACK UP ABOVE THAT VALUE ON
SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN AREA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE CAN DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK 5H TROUGHING ON SUN WILL FILL MON AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES FLAT/PROGRESSIVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID LINGERING MOISTURE AND NO REAL CAPPING DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POP SUN/MON. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS 5H TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THE 5H TROUGH MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TUE INTO
WED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LEFT BEHIND...FORMING A SEMI CUTOFF LOW.
THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE STRONGER AND MEANDERS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. EITHER SOLUTION
RESULTS IN THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH POP
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. INHERITED FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE
POP WISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SO PLAN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/....
AS OF 06Z...LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT IN BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO
IFR...ALTHOUGH I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR OVER THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING GIVEN TRENDS OBSERVED IN 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRATUS SHOULD MAKE IT
DOWN EVEN TO THE MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08-10Z...WITH ALL
LOCAL AIRPORTS IN IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT LIFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AT THE ILM
AND LBT AIRPORTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 12Z.
STRATUS WILL BREAK A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT INTO A
DIURNAL VFR CU LAYER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...TURNING TO THE S/SE
AT THE COAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER
DARK...LEAVING RESIDUAL VFR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FINAL NEAR-TERM UPDATE
OF THE NIGHT WAS TO REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES FOR "SLIGHT CHANCE" BEFORE
3 AM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. WINDS AND SEAS
MATCH PREVIOUS FORECASTS CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE
CONDITIONS FOR A NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AN SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY MON AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUE WITH WINDS MON BEING DRIVEN
MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. MODIFIED SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TUE BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON WIND FIELD. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...JDW/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
RADAR RETURNS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADARS. NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS
INDICATES ONLY VIRGA OR IF SOME RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. RADAR
RETURNS SEEN IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
AND NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST. OTHER SHOWERS
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST
RADAR LOOPS/TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT NO COHESIVE AREAL COVERAGE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS ARE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DID TONE DOWN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 22-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND RECENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS BLENDED
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND 20-22 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES PROPAGATING ATOP THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE. LATEST ITERATIONS OF HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE USED
THESE TO PAINT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS. STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE
IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THUS
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT AREA...BUT GENERALLY PLACEMENT TO THE
WEST AFTER THIS EVENING. WE DO START TO SEE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO DID KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A CURVED UPPER
LEVEL JET NEARBY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE AID OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD LEAD TO STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING CAPE AND SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RATHER HEAVY
RAIN. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KDIK. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MAINLY
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO MVFR AT KISN AND KJMS FOR A SHORT TIME
PERIOD AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER/DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 90 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 90 67 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 88 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 89 66 88 68 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 90 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0
F10 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 88 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
SPRINKLES NEARLY GONE NOW.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
STILL A FEW SPRINKLES...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SE.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
04Z HRRR DEPICTS A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. QPF WILL BE LIGHT
AND LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED.
WILL MODIFY POPS UPWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS
THIS MORNING...REFLECTING THE CONTINUE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
LIGHT SHOWERS /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/ WITHIN THE LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BRIGHTENING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY
FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. GEFS/SREF
OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700 J/KG ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO FORM IN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NW
PA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT
DIMINISH THE POPS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
STILL A FEW SPRINKLES...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SE.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
229 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
04Z HRRR DEPICTS A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. QPF WILL BE LIGHT
AND LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED.
WILL MODIFY POPS UPWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AND WRN POCONOS
THIS MORNING...REFLECTING THE CONTINUE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
LIGHT SHOWERS /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/ WITHIN THE LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BRIGHTENING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY
FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. GEFS/SREF
OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700 J/KG ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO FORM IN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NW
PA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT
DIMINISH THE POPS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRI WILL FEATURE LOTS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MAINLY HIGHER-TERRAIN FOG...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMDT-KLNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ON FRI...REDUCTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES BY AFTERNOON /THE SE MAY
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY/. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT. EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE WRN
TERMINALS...AND JUST ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE ERN SITES. CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE AS
RESTRICTING OR WIDESPREAD AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
THE SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN POSS MAINLY OVER THE SE SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD
AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90
AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL
A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO
WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT
MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29...
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH
BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE
TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML
CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT
DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A
NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL
THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY
WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION
WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS
OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KFSD AND
KSUX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT AND THEN LIFT BY LATE
MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z...BUT MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THESE WILL BE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 14 AND
INTERSTATE 90 AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KHON AND KFSD TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL STAY SOUTH OF
KSUX. AFTER 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOCAL
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER
SOCAL TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THUS,
EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SIMILAR WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES IN THE ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS IF IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TODAY, THE HRRR INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AFTER 10
AM ALONG THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INCLUDING SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS (SUCH AS BUTTE, YUBA & NEVADA COUNTIES). SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN CENTRAL
VALLEY JUST BELOW THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. THE GREATER
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SIERRA CREST WITH PEAK AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF INCH. VALLEY HIGHS WILL JUST BE NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VALLEY MAX TEMPS - UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
DELTA - 70S, FOOTHILLS - 70S TO MID 80S, MOUNTAINS - 60S AND 70S.
ON SATURDAY, AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER NORCAL WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
NUDGE DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE SIERRA. WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST TEMPS IN THE THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
WHERE WE MIGHT SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. MONDAY IS WHEN THE
HEAT REALLY KICKS IN...MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
TO 100. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE DESERT SW.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW AS PLACED ITSELF OFF OF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST AND SLOWLY KICKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
TRANSITORY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM
BLANCA MAY BE ENTRAINED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS CUTOFF LOW.
THEREFORE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND A TRIGGER SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY(STILL IN THE 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY) DUE TO THE
LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE LOW, AND STABILIZE THROUGH FRIDAY.
JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KIKK TO NEAR KMQB. WHILE NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ON RADAR...A CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED ITS
FORECAST CLOSELY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH
17Z...THEN INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...SO A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S/SW CWA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER THAT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDTIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE EXPECTED
MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR THE
AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST
AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AMPLE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH CENTRAL IL AFFECTING TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS GENERALLY SHALLOW
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FROM AROUND 13Z-14Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND 17Z-24Z AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERLY 6-12 KTS. TIMING DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO GREATER THAN 40
KTS...MAINLY FOR KSPI-KDEC. PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WITH FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT
KSAW/KIWD TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO VFR. THINK THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST AT KSAW WITH THE FAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...ENDING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
KCMX...THERE IS FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE...BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NOT REALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY HAVE CLEARED OUT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>245-248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A POCKET OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DRIFTED ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS SHOULD LIFT THIS
MORNING. ONCE IT DOES EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN
WI. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.
KMSP...
ANTICIPATING THAT THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TODAY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS THE LIFR CLOUDS ARE JUST TO THE
WEST. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
718 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Pilots can expect prevailing VFR conditions at area terminals today
and tonight. However a few showers and storms may impact some
areas especially north of the terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
920 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THE NAM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENT PLACEMENTS IN REGARDS TO QPF AND BOTH
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOUNT FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIDESPREAD CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF -3 TO -6 AND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THE NAM
PLACES UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BIG SHEEPS.
THE GFS MAX PRECIP AXIS RUNS FROM GLASGOW NE THROUGH SCOBEY. THE
EC MAX IS EARLIER OVER GARFIELD COUNTY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BLEND
THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS
IN A VARIETY OF LOCATIONS. SO...BEST WE CAN SAY IS SOMEWHERE IN NE
MONTANA...A HEAVY RAIN STORM OR TWO WILL BE SOMEWHERE BUT
UNFORTUNATELY WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY UNTIL IT SHOWS UP ON
RADAR DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND CALMER WEATHER FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND CALM EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CUT OFF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW DRY DAYS. UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL NORTH...ONLY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
RECONNECT WITH THE OPEN TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFTS
THE UPPER FLOW INTO MONTANA TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE TROF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. UPPER FLOW NOW EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DRIER
FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS: COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS. ERRATIC AND STRONGER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GAH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OFFICIALS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY REPORT THAT MCDONALD CREEK AND
FLATWILLOW CREEKS HAVE MINOR FLOODING. DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...CREEK LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO
AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEREFORE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...
PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
701 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR. LEFT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES(TSRA/SHRA) UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE AREA
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TARGET...ONLY MINOR GRID TWEAKS FOR MORNING UPDATE.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 90 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 90 67 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 88 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 89 66 88 68 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 90 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0
F10 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 88 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
725 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SINGLE CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE SE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE NE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR /04Z-07Z VERSIONS/ DEPICT A
SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES
AND WRN POCONOS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
LATER THIS A.M. BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS VERY WEAK AND FRAGMENTED.
POPS WILL BE JUST 20-30 PERCENT AT MOST THOUGH.
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN /WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY/ AND THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP /ASIDE FROM JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR BRIEF -SHRA/ WILL BE VERY MINIMAL - LESS THAN 5
PERCENT.
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /AND EARLY MORNING MINS/ PRETTY UNIFORM AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW
DEG F EARLY TODAY FROM THEIR CURRENT 06Z VALUES...REACHING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/MIX
OUT THIS MORNING.OTHERWSIE... BRIGHTENING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SLOWLY NE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST AND WE LOSE THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PTSUNNY SKIES WILL SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT PRODUCING SOME MINIMAL CAPES OF ARND 600-700
J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE/GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO FORM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
RT 219 ON THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROCEED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE /NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
I-99/RT22 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z SAT/.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POP IN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NCENT AND NW MTNS...BUT GRADUALLY TAPER POPS TO AOB 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE AND RATHER LARGE 1024 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LEAD THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM A RATHER BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE NRN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW...6-12MM PWATS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
AND CENTRAL PENN BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF 925-850 MB REL HUM INDICATES THAT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE PA/MARYLAND BORDER.
SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND
THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY
FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW
AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.
WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE GONE...A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL.
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS.
MON-TUE...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN READILY WARMING THIS MORNING SO INCREASED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM REMNANT CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INHIBIT FULL
INSOLATION.
SECONDLY...EXAMINED HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL LATELY AND
THE TREND LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING TODAY AS INITIALIZATION WAS POOR
AND THE HRRR IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP. DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT UNTIL
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER...WILL LET THE
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
UPSTREAM IN MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION.
IT HAS BEEN SINCE OCTOBER 2ND 2014 SINCE WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE THINKS
WE WILL MAKE IT TO 90 DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. I HAVE MY DOUBTS...AND
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE APPROACHING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
HELPS JUSTIFY THOSE DOUBTS. FURTHERMORE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
TOO WARM LATELY. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...88 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT AND RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 4-6 DM OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE BENCHMARK OF 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 95
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT MIDDLE 90S ARE NOT LIKELY. WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES
FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOVE OUR DIRECTION...DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT GETTING CLOSER EACH NIGHT. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A FEW
STORMS REACH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR SUGGEST THEY WON`T BE VERY STRONG IF THE DO MAKE IT.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT I DO NOT SEE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER...THESE MCS`S ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT
MORE THAN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...SO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS
MAY BE IN ORDER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME OUR MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. WE
SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S INSTEAD OF UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
30
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING... WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. MAIN UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD MENTION OF THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS... ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
TOP OUT NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST OF VFR CONDIT-
IONS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WE COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IN/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY MEN-
TION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1037 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS THE WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST EXPECTED WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE NOW SHOWING
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH 12Z SOUNDING VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES AT KRNK...ABOUT 120
PERCENT OF NORMAL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE OPENING UP PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL ERODE AND BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION BY A WEAK FRONT DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MURKY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SHOW
MARKED IMPROVEMENT TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE EXTRA SUN AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE LOW THANKS TO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...ENHANCED
ALOFT BY SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK
OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FRONT WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE THE THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. MODELS BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS WEDGE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
MAY KEEP WEDGE FEATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM
TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITIES WITH
THIS FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. KEPT SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY AND THE PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT SO EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR STARTING IN THE WEST AND PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BEING THE CASE...LOCATIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE MOST SUN AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE VCTS TO COVER THIS
SITUATION AS SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
REMAIN UNDEFINED THIS FAR OUT. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION WITH AT LEAST TEMPO
MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CEILINGS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. IN FACT ONLY A
FEW IFR CIGS LINGER WITH CIGS MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. COOL NE
FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 2 MB/3HR PRES RISE BUBBLE NOTED VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
FOR THE AFTN HRS HOWEVER SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. LLVL
RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
EARLY CONCERN IS WITH FOG AS COOL...MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE EVEN COLDER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. NNE WINDS ARE BRINGING THIS FOG INLAND A FEW MILES. OBS
AND WEB CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY 1 TO 3 MILE
VSBYS...WITH OCCASIONAL 1/4 TO 3/4 MILE. WILL KEEP HANDLING WITH SPS
FOR LAND AND MWS FOR THE LAKE FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. SREF VSBY
PROBS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIFT FOG BY MID-MORNING.
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE COOL WITH ONSHORE NE WINDS
HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 50S ALONG THE SHORE.
LOW TO MID 70S HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
NAM APPEARS TO BEE OVERREACTING TO ALONG SHORE CONVERGENCE AS WINDS
TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEAST...DEVELOPING A POCKET OF SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND PUSHING THEM INLAND AS
FAR AS MSN BY 12Z. WILL TREND WITH MAJORITY SOLUTION AND KEEP
TONIGHT DRY. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW-MID 50S LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS...COOLER IN THE EAST WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SKIES MAY START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH SLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND NORMAL MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM COOLER
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
A SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY JUST TO
THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
MILD...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE. STUCK TO HIGHS NEAR A
MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THE SUN POKES OUT FOR A TIME.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN MODEL TEMPS ALOFT...COULD HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF
THE YEAR TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH IFR VSBYS AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST WITH COOL
MOIST NE WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF
PROBABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL LIFT AND
THEN MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY 15Z...THOUGH NAM GUIDANCE
KEEPS MVFR CLOUDS AT EASTERN-MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
WILL FOLLOW WITH THE EARLIER CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH NAM HAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION OF MVFR
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z SATURDAY AS WINDS
TURN MORE EAST NORTHEAST. WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONSENSUS FORECAST.
MARINE...WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 19Z THROUGH
06Z SAT. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH AS MODELS
RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE LATER END TIME WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ISSUING MWS FOR FOG OVER THE LAKE. OBS AND WEB
CAMS SHOW VARYING VSBYS...SO NOT CONSIDERING A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITY
FORECASTS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL LIFT AND THEN MIX OUT
THE FOG BY 15Z.
BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL
WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE LATER IN THE DAY
TIME PERIOD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TIME TO LOOK AT UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED...BUT WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/WAVE HEIGHTS TO ISSUE/
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS. UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD, CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND I80 SOUTHWARD. THE
STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE KING FIRE BURN AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THERE, WHICH IF IT COMES DOWN
FAST ENOUGH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DEBRIS FLOWS. THIS STORM COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH ARE SEEING THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ACTIVITY INTO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ALONG AND EAST OF I5 THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR AND NMM MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SACRAMENTO METRO AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THERE
SHOULD JUST BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA.
HIGHS TODAY WERE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, REACHING TO AROUND
90 FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY, MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE TRICKY PART IS THE DELTA BREEZE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS OFF SOME FOR DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS
OVERNIGHT. EK
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF MORE OF THE SAME, WITH
MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MAY EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY, MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER UP NORTH,
POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER AROUND THE DELTA.
SHOWERS AMD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HEAT UP A
LITTLE MORE EACH DAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EK
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WITH HOT
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL
SLOWLY KICK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM BLANCA MAY BE ENTRAINED IN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS CUTOFF LOW. THEREFORE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND A TRIGGER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES DECREASE A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY(STILL IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE VALLEY) DUE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE LOW, AND
STABILIZE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF VALLEY CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT THIS LATE DAY CONVECTION PATTERN.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
206 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
STORMS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGAN TODAY IN MONO COUNTY AROUND 11 AM
WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. HRRR MODEL SHOWS MAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PROGRESSING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETTER
CLEARING THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
IN FACT, A SMALL COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE JUST AFTER 1 PM TODAY. WHILE THE STORM JUST NORTH OF STEAD
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE (20 MILES) TO THE RADAR, NO ROTATION WAS
EVIDENT ON RADAR. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS COULD
HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY, THESE TYPE OF COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SHORT-LIVED.
YESTERDAY, AREAS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER QUICKLY RECEIVED
AROUND .3 INCH OF PRECIP. NEAR VIRGINIA CITY, RAINFALL TOTALED
1.2 INCHES WHERE STORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.
MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME WESTWARD MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS
AND STORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL
ALSO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE MORNING. BY
SUNDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALLOWING DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA.
TOLBY
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS MEDIUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED HEATING AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE
WITH SHORTER DURATION PULSE TYPE CELLS. FOR WESTERN NV NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME WARMING ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY TO CAP MOST
CONVECTION.
FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FARTHER OFFSHORE,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORING A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA. WE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BEING MORE UNCERTAIN, WE ARE NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR
AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS AND
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION, TO A RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MASS
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO
THE 90S. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON WHICH TREND EVOLVES, WE WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES FOR THURSDAY, KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS (UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER RAIN. FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS
EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE AROUND KTRK LATER TODAY, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL AND SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS EARLY SAT AM, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MJD
&&
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS PLENTIFUL...BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ALL TOGETHER. THEN WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE
PLENTIFUL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE REACHED AT
TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN
AND SOUTHWEST CO TAF SITES. THEN LOW CLOUDS AND WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD ALSO IMPACT AIR
TRAVEL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND IS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL POPPING UP. HRRR AND RAP SHOW
AREAS SOUTH FAVORED FOR PRECIP TODAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHICH LOOKS TO BE WORKING VERY WELL ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SATURDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY WITH PLENTY MORE PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE APPREARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE THAT WILL PASS TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SAT WHICH ALSO WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TO THIS END...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SERN UT AND SRN CO DUE TO STREAMS AND
CREEKS RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND THIS INCREASED
PRECIP. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE
ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE WAVE THAT
WILL PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY IN
THE EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
END. THIS DOWN TURN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE AREA SEES THE FIRST HINT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS THAT WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
BETTER DRYING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE
SHEARS APART. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THEN WITH THE DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON WED AHEAD OF THEN NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE BLANCA...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SOME RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED FOR KASE KEGE KRIL KTEX AND KDRO AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN TIME. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIP STARTING FROM 12Z
ONWARDS TOMORROW. MANY MTN RANGES WILL BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS. MAIN
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED BANKFULL. THE EAGLE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN
EAGLE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE BANKFULL THIS WEEKEND SO
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER RIVERS RUNNING HIGH
INCLUDE THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND COUNTY LINE TO THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT
CREEK LANDSLIDE ALSO CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ019-021>023.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KIKK TO NEAR KMQB. WHILE NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ON RADAR...A CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED ITS
FORECAST CLOSELY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH
17Z...THEN INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING...SO A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S/SW CWA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER THAT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS
TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SET OF CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ESE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO AREAS
AROUND SPRINGFIELD SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MID MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
COMBINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z ELIMINATING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 83 SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT...BECOMING NE 5-10 MPH AFTER THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WARM AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, ARE
EXPECTED MOST DAYS, WITH SOME 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOKING LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, MOST OF THE PERIOD DOES NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED RAINFALL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA. THEN, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN ANY
HURRY TO CLEAR THE AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME, AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL DEPART AND TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG LIKELY. HOWEVER, SHEAR PROFILES
APPEAR MODEST FOR THE MOST PART, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KTS IN MOST AREAS.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CELLS JUST W/NW OF KSPI. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH VCTS AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z AT KSPI DUE TO THE CURRENT PROXIMITY
OF RADAR ECHOES. FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. LOW VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE I-74 TERMINALS MAY SEE GUSTS OF
AROUND 15KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE
BY SUNSET.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS PLUME
GENERALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH 1.5-1.8 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND ARE PRETTY RARE DURING OUR MONSOON SEASON AT THE
END OF JULY. ONCE THE STORMS REACH THIS AIRMASS AM EXPECTING VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LIKELY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S
EAST/NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL UNFOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THE EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE 850MB TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WANTED TO HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE DECIDED TO KEEP RAINFALL
CHANCES A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND DRIER. THEREFORE WILL HAVE
CHANCES FOR RAIN DECLINE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
EVENING NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 OR
BASICALLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHEST RECORDED FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM SURROUNDING
UPPER AIR SITES.
SUNDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL FIRE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE 20+MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS IT OVER
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES.
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING A SECOND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...UNDER 10MB OR SO. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...FILLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY
HIGH...RIVALING THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS ACCORDING TO
CLIMATOLOGY OF OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM SURROUNDING SITES. WITH THIS
IN MIND PLACED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BRINGING RAINFALL
TO AN END.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST
AND BECOMES ELONGATED OVER THE PLAINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE THROUGH. AFTER WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS PLUME
GENERALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH 1.5-1.8 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND ARE PRETTY RARE DURING OUR MONSOON SEASON AT THE
END OF JULY. ONCE THE STORMS REACH THIS AIRMASS AM EXPECTING VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LIKELY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S
EAST/NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER
THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES ONCE MORE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE 1600 J/KG
TO 2200 J/KG HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS WEAK WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LONG FETCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH.
BASED ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS AND LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
00Z...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES POOLING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THESE VALUES ARE OFF THE CHART FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND USUALLY NOT SEEN TIL LATE IN JULY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL A BIT HIGHER THEN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN YUMA COUNTY...WARMING SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 FROM NEAR HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKEOVER SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE FA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS AND CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SO
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR ON SATURDAY FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA THROUGH 15Z. BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER THE ADVISORY AREA IS
FORECAST TO EXCEED 90 PERCENT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 1 TO 2
DEGREES. MIXING FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS INHIBITED DENSE FOG SO FAR
BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO LOWER IN A FEW HOURS AS STORMS WEAKEN AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. THE NAM INDICATES THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
PLAN TO KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG
NEAR SUNRISE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 80S. UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER
THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF IN RECENT GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES ONCE MORE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE 1600 J/KG
TO 2200 J/KG HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS WEAK WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LONG FETCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015
KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z AS
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING BUT COULD MOVE IN FROM WEST. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING 20KTS OR SO. AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 23Z WITH A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
(23Z-01Z) OF WIND GUSTS (PER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
LESSER EXTENT THE WRF) IN EXCESS OF 45KTS AND COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS (50+ KTS) ALONG WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES (CREATING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN) AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 12KTS OR LESS. BY 15Z
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 11KTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM THE EAST LATE. POSSIBLE LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL BY 01Z AND LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CREATING LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING...WINDS FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 08Z-12Z CIGS LOWER TO VLIFR CATEGORY
WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. AFTER 13Z CIGS RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A CLOSED
500 MB LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE
AREA SUN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA ON SUN AND MOVES BOTH OUT SUN NIGHT. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE FOR THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO DRY FOR SAT NIGHT FAR EASTERN CWA
AND THEN WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUN. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH WRAPAROUND IN THE AREA AND WITH TROUGHING
ON MON ALOFT...COULD STILL SEEM SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POP UP WHICH
WARRANTS LOW POPS FOR MON AND THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP FORM SOME CONVECTION AS WELL.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 12Z TUE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW. THE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AFFECTS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA 12Z WED. UPPER FLOW GETS PARALLEL WITH SFC FRONT 12Z THU
WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THEY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WARRANTS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A
LOW STRATUS IFR DECK REMAINS OVER SAW ON N WINDS...AND SOME MVFR
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W UPPER MI. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE TEMPORARY...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5KTS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE N. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A 1027MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE U.P. EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS LEADING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. BASED ON
SHIP OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE ARE STILL AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND HAVE SEEN THAT OCCASIONALLY MOVING ON SHORE OVER
THE KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.P. THE
VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THUS
FAR THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE WILL ONLY BE HIGH CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THEIR VIEWING
OUTSIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY). BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS INTO SATURDAY. AS
THAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL START TO BRING IN THE DRIER
AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL/CYPL SOUNDINGS AND ON UPSTREAM OBS.
CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE DRYING
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE HELP
OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO THE DRIZZLE/FOG IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 0.3IN...EXPECT A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VEERING WINDS OF 15-20KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REALLY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED SITES)...THINKING
THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT AND
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE SHELTERED
COLD SPOTS OF THE WESTERN U.P....STILL THINK TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S AND PRODUCE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AND NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ERN LAKES INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MIXING TO 3K-4K FT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 BUT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG LAKE MI.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN
CANADA WILL AID AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN LAKES. THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR DLH BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE E END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z/MON. MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI BY
12Z/SUN AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PCPN...FCST IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE
THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER THAT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NRN IL OR SRN
WI. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN.
MON...WITH NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
AND PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500
J/KG...ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION IF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE REALIZED.
TUE-THU...DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TUE WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S CNTRL CANADA
INTO MANITOBA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE
GEM/ECMWF... BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1K J/KG. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH...THE FCST INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A
LOW STRATUS IFR DECK REMAINS OVER SAW ON N WINDS...AND SOME MVFR
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W UPPER MI. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE TEMPORARY...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5KTS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE N. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15KTS). WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
FARTHER WEST BASED OFF SHIP OBS. DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN COAST. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ORIGINATING FROM THE POTENT CALIFORNIA PV ANOMALY MOVED ACROSS
ROCKIES AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISER RIVER.
CLOSER TO HOME...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAX WAS ENTERING WESTERN
MN...BUT IT WAS BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERED
CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO.
NONE THE LESS...THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE...AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE
FORM OF CONVERGENCE/THETA_E ADVECTION...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF-
ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND
11Z...SO HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID
MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY...BUT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPS...SO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 70S. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD /IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ OF
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS WEEKEND IS A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND NAM ALREADY SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF TO SOME DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THE ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIT IN THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW TRACKING NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
STORMS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WITH A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE BOTH MARGINAL SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH AND PUSH THE LESS
STABLE AIR TO THE EAST...TAKING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR
AND IN FACT SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
MORNING FG/LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST AS A
PERSISTENT DRIER E/NE FLOW BLW 3K REMAINS DURING THE NEXT 6-18
HRS. THERE MAY BE AN HR OR TWO OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KRWF/KAXN...BUT
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTN WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONDS
THRU THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME PERIOD. -SHRA SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 6Z IN WC MN...WITH THE BEST CHC AFT 12Z. BEST AREA OF
TSRA WILL OCCUR NEAR KAXN WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE E/ENE THRU THIS EVENING...THEN MORE MORE ESE/SE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFT 18Z/06. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE A
BETTER SCENARIO ON TSRA TIMING IN THE AFTN/EVENING OF JUNE 6.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE/E THRU THE EVENING...BECOMING MORE
ESE OVERNIGHT...AND SE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
An outflow boundary dropped south through the most of the area
early this morning. The boundary is hard to discern now but cu
fields are starting to develop over parts of the area. HRRR for
what it`s worth develops afternoon convection presumably along the
s-sw flank of the left over outflow, but it is running a little
fast on redevelopment. But with temperatures well up into the 80s
and dew points in the upper 60s/near 70 deg F, MLCAPE values over
the sw half of the cwfa are in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 j/kg
with lesser values to the northeast. Mid level winds/vertical shear
look to be a little better than yesterday with a shortwave
expected to move se through southern MO this afternoon, so some
strong/marginally severe nw-se moving pulse like storms or storm
clusters are a possibility through mid evening.
With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and
shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall
chances for storms looks to lessen a bit. A weak backdoor "front"
is expected to get pushed sw into the cwfa by sfc high pressure
over the upper Midwest, and this may serve to produce or at least
focus some chances for convection late tonight and Saturday
morning as modest low level flow veers to the sw producing an
uptick in isentropic upglide/lift. The convection may be a
southern extension of a stronger complex of storms progged to be
to the north.
Saturday afternoon should be fairly quiet by late in the day with
progged lower moisture/PWATS and much poorer mid level lapse rates
and vertical shear. There will still be some chances for pulse
type convection early where boundaries set up, but the overall
chances will be fairly low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
The "ring of fire" storms running over/around the persistent mid
south CONUS upper ridge looks to be shunted north for a brief
time Saturday night/Sunday. W-SW flow over a deep layer will try
to dry the overall atmosphere with even some subtle mid level
capping indicated by GFS progged soundings by late Saturday.
The overall pattern will change again as the upper ridge flattens
out and a shortwave and associated sfc cold front move into the
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances may linger at times over
southern MO as what is left of the w-e sfc boundary hangs up near
or just south of the MO/AR border by Tue-Wed. Guidance also
indicates a weak upper level shear axis or closed low over the
mid/southern MS Vly which may also maintain at least low chances
for diurnal convection. Overall however, the midweek period looks
fairly quiet.
On or by day 7/Friday the pattern looks to get active again as a
shortwave is depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS to move from the
southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains with abundant
moisture progged to be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Thunderstorm complexes from last night have now pushed through the
area...but have left several outflow boundaries to deal with in
their wake. The main one is down along the MO-AR border and is the
focus for some developing cu down around KBBG.
Models also showing a weak upper wave traversing the area over the
top of the upper level ridge this afternoon and evening along with
a weak surface cold front along the northern CWA border. Anyone of
these could act as a focus for scattered convection this
afternoon. At this time...believe most of the convection will be
north and east of the aerodromes. Will continue to monitor for
development throughout the afternoon.
The next question is fog formation overnight. The combination of
moist ground...light winds...mostly clear skies...and high
pressure over the area make for a good scenario for fog formation.
Several models seem to be hinting at this as well. Will mention
MVFR visibilities in the 09-14z time frame as this would be the
prime time for this to occur.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Hi-Res short term models have been having a little bit of a hard
time with these thunderstorm complexes or MCS. One small MCS is
currently moving across the far eastern Missouri Ozarks this
morning. There was one report of a 55 mph wind gust at the Vichy-
Rolla ASOS this morning. This complex will remain below severe
limits and continue to slowly weaken through sunrise as it moves
off to the southeast.
The next complex which is stronger and large is currently over
eastern Kansas as of 3 am. This line has had a history of 60 to 70
mph winds early this morning across eastern Kansas but has shown
some signs of slowly weakening as it advances southeastward
towards southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The HRRR Hi-Res
model has the best handle of the near term situation and have
followed it closely with the forecast over the next 12 hours.
This MCS will continue to weaken by the time it reaches west
central MO by sunrise. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats with this MCS
coming later this morning. This line of storms will most likely
fizzle out before it reaches the I-44 corridor by mid morning with
a few lingering showers possible. The Hi-Res models indicate that
some of the leftover boundaries across central Missouri and the
eastern Missouri Ozarks will be the focus area for additional
convection later this afternoon. This is where the best potential
for additional development later today and where the highest rain
chances are this afternoon. Have also knocked high temperatures
down a few degrees across central Missouri because of more rain
around and clouds today. The warmest temps will be across far
southwestern Missouri...upper 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Looks like the upper level ridge kind of builds back over the
area on Saturday and Sunday which will decrease our rain chances
and warm the temperatures up. The train of MCS will stay further
north of our area through this time. We may flirt with 90 degrees
on Sunday and feeling very summer like!
The ridge will be pushed southwestward by Monday with a small
upper level wave moving across the Midwest. This will help move a
frontal boundary into the Missouri Ozarks and thunderstorm chances
increase again late Sunday night into Monday. The models diverge
on solutions by the middle of next week with the ECMWF pushing the
front south of the area and drying the area out. The GFS keeps the
boundary right through the Ozarks and off and on thunderstorm
chances continue. With this forecast update...will continue chance
pops for thunderstorms through the middle of next week and
slightly cooler temperatures due to added cloud cover and rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
Thunderstorm complexes from last night have now pushed through the
area...but have left several outflow boundaries to deal with in
their wake. The main one is down along the MO-AR border and is the
focus for some developing cu down around KBBG.
Models also showing a weak upper wave traversing the area over the
top of the upper level ridge this afternoon and evening along with
a weak surface cold front along the northern CWA border. Anyone of
these could act as a focus for scattered convection this
afternoon. At this time...believe most of the convection will be
north and east of the aerodromes. Will continue to monitor for
development throughout the afternoon.
The next question is fog formation overnight. The combination of
moist ground...light winds...mostly clear skies...and high
pressure over the area make for a good scenario for fog formation.
Several models seem to be hinting at this as well. Will mention
MVFR visibilities in the 09-14z time frame as this would be the
prime time for this to occur.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TIMING CONVECTION
AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW FROM ARIZONA TOWARD NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE STRONGEST SEEMED
TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...OTHERWISE WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AT 00Z LAST EVENING. SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A WAVY
AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON DETERMINING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR
TODAY...BUT USED THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF MODELS TO TRY TO PIN
THINGS DOWN. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM WITH POPS ONLY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT
SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE A
BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
IN GENERAL...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FOCUS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THAT FRONT
AND IT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS IOWA.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY...
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL TSTM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS OVER THE WEEKEND...COOLING A BIT TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
CEILINGS ARE ON THE CUSP BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN AT MVFR
LEVELS /1500-2500 FT/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BROKEN COVERAGE
NEAR KOFK AND MROE SCATTERED NEAR KOMA/KLNK. AT LEAST SCATTERED
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ALSO MAY SEE VISIBILITY DROP
TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
AROUND 15Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW. IT EXPIRES AT
18Z BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT BY MID MORNING. FLOODING
IS ONGOING IN SOME AREAS...SO DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL AT THIS
POINT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
HYDROLOGY...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
325 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST UTAH BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS A MIX OF SUN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOS ANGELES BASIN WITH A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HAVING PUNCHED
NORTHEAST AS FAR AS CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWFA REMAIN STABLE AND THUS DRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE MAIN STEERING FLOW HAS
BEEN SOUTHERLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
WELL AS A 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES, ENOUGH CAPE, GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LAPS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS
RESULTED IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY NOTED AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS HERE
TRIGGER WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNPOURS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HOLD ON LONGER AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND
LATER CENTRAL NYE COUNTY FROM UTAH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, MOST MODELS DO NOT SHUT DOWN ACTIVITY ALTOGETHER OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWFA. THUS WE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WHICH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS MT
CHARLESTON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CUMULUS HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GROW
OVER CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, POPS OVER MT CHARLESTON MAY BE
OVERDONE FOR THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING IN MOST SPOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES GETTING SUCKED INTO ARIZONA BUT THIS WILL
SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO GET FED BY THE LOW`S BROAD CIRCULATION
BACK INTO OUR AREA. SO OVER THE WEEKEND, ANY MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE
WHAT IS ALREADY CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST CENTER OF THE LOW`S
CIRCULATION. THUS, THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES
IN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. PROSPECTS LOOK EVEN LOWER ON
SUNDAY AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER DECREASES. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN FOR SATURDAY THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE THE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO STRETCH OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ESSENTIALLY JUST BECOMES AN ELONGATED
PIECE OF ENERGY STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY, WE MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO
LAS VEGAS. THEN ALL EYES START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AT WE EYE
WHAT GOES ON WITH BLANCA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE BLANCA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,
BLANCA IS STILL SLATED TO BE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MONDAY
MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY STEER THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON CERTAIN FEATURES, MODELS HAVE
INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS ALSO
AGREEMENT ON A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF BLANCA, I CANNOT IGNORE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH. HAVE UPPED
DEWPOINTS EVEN MORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND YET MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH IN SOME LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING MID-
LEVEL FORCING WORKING NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THE TROUGH MAY EVEN PULL A
LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD, TOWARD US. WITH DESTABILIZATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AT LEAST THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, HAVE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE MORE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO INCREASED
POPS SOME MORE WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LARGER DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY GET INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW MORE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE UNUSUAL FOR JUNE AND MAY KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES GOING FOR SOME AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HAVE TRENDED THEM
COOLER FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE 4-8 KTS EARLY THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONFIGURATION ISSUES AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY AS WINDS VARY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AFTER 05Z
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MAINLY AFTER 20Z FROM NEAR A LINE FROM
KIYK-KELY ON NORTHWEST AND FROM A LINE FROM KELY-KIGM ON NORTHEAST.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. BASED
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU
LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER
LIFTING INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
80. MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE
MID 70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL
STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END OF THE DAY
AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING NOT ALLOWING
FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR AREA AND
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY ALSO MOVE
DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AS
THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A
SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO 500 MB
ON SATURDAY MAY HELP TRIP OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST DURING AND
FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING...AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS PINNED
ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR. AS THE WEAK LOW MIGRATES EAST AND OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND FORM INTO A WEDGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXIMUMS
ON SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY....WITH POTENTIALLY
AN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GRADUAL
THICKNESS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND TO LESS FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE FORMATION AND SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS THE BEST TIME-FRAME FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REACH AT LEAST CLIMO EACH AFTN. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THURSDAY WHEN
SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS JUNE...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
CLEAN PASSAGE...SO WILL SHOW FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FEEL
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE THANKS TO HIGH HEAT INDICES.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TUES/WED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH AND STALLS...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT LATE IN
THE WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL WANE BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-CHC EVEN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BROKEN STRATUS/STRATOCU THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THINGS
PRETTY STABLE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABLIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS WELL AS THE COAST AS A LOT OF THE
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
FLO...BUT EVEN FOR THIS AREA WENT WITH VCSH DUE TO LACK OF
COVERAGE. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
FOG/STRATUS AT BAY...PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS AT FLO...ESPECIALLY
IF THEY RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. SATURDAY...LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY FIRE AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE
TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK BUT VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO LATE SATURDAY. A BIT OF A NE SURGE OF WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE NORTH BUILDS S OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS...BRINGING NE WINDS
TO 15 KT AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE-E
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING IN A 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
SATURDAY MAY BUMP UP TO 3-4 FT SUNDAY AS NE WINDS INCREASE. SEAS
ESE 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS MIXED WITH LIGHT CHOP SATURDAY AND A
MODERATE 1-1.5 FT NE CHOP SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE INSHORE
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT
WILL TRY TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HELD
UP AND STALL JUST IN THE VICINITY INSTEAD OF MAKING A CLEAN PASSAGE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS
RISING FROM 5-10 KTS MONDAY...TO 15-20 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY. A BRIEF
DECREASE IN SPEED ALONG WITH A VEERING TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SE THAT FRONT MAKES IT...BUT A QUICK
RETURN TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SW WIND WAVE AND SE
GROUND SWELL...BOTH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...FROM 2-3 FT MONDAY TO 3-5
FT LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT
WEDNESDAY...AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
244 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED DOWN THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A DECENT STRATO CU LAYER BETWEEN
2500 AND 5000 FT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER LIFTING
INVERSION. THE STRATO CU WERE BREAKING UP MUCH MORE OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA LEAVING SUNNIER SPOTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 80.
MOST PLACES OVER COASTAL NC WERE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE MID
70S IN CLOUDS AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW INCREASE TO SFC HEATING ALLOWING INVERSION
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING THROUGH LATE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL
STRENGTHEN SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
AS FOR ANY PCP...EXPECT GREATEST CHC TO BE TOWARD END OF THE DAY
AS A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST N-NW FLOW KEEPING NOT ALLOWING
FOR MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY BUT STILL SHOWS ISOLATED SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO INLAND CAPE FEAR AREA AND
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERS SHWRS MAY ALSO MOVE
DOWN IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AS
THEY REACH I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PROVIDES A
SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT BUT AS ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A GOOD MIX FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY INLAND LATE AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY.
0-6KM SHEAR ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 17 KNOTS BUT NOT THE
LOWEST VALUE I HAVE SEEN EITHER SO SOME STRONG CELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD SPELL TROUBLE AS WELL. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. WITH PWS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
SUNDAY...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE VALUES TO MESH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH POWERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WE CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM THE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/INLAND TROUGH FORCED NUMBERS MONDAY TO GOOD
CHANCE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NUMBERS WITH READINGS SOME THREE TO SEVEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BROKEN STRATUS/STRATOCU THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THINGS
PRETTY STABLE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS WELL AS THE COAST AS A LOT OF THE
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
FLO...BUT EVEN FOR THIS AREA WENT WITH VCSH DUE TO LACK OF
COVERAGE. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
FOG/STRATUS AT BAY...PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS AT FLO...ESPECIALLY
IF THEY RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. SATURDAY...LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY FIRE AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BACKING OF WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. SEABREEZE WILL COME UP AGAINST THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION IS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSE
TO 8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE OUT OF THE N
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS SATURDAY DICTATED
MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A NORTHEAST
FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS QUICKLY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SURGE OR
TWO THAT MAY INCREASE WINDS FURTHER AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND TO THE
INCREASE IN WINDS RISING FROM 2-3 FEET SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
AN ISOLATED FIVE FOOTER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A
SURGE OCCURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER VERY LATE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A HEALTHY 2-
4 FEET DEVELOPING UP FROM THE TEPID 1-3 FEET MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CU THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR KMOT THROUGH 00Z.
AFTERWARDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ENTER/DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MID TO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CU CLOUD 35-45 HND FT MAINLY AR TAF SITES KFYV KXNA KROG KFSM
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TARGET...ONLY MINOR GRID TWEAKS FOR MORNING UPDATE.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NE OK...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MCS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH INCREASING INHIBITION AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION IS MAY WELL CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO GLANCE ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND EXTREME NW AR HOWEVER RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE. SHOULD PRECIP MAKE IT INTO THE AREA IT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED WITH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUING TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND TRACK EAST AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND POSSIBLE SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO
PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL AXIS RESIDES OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE OK/KS BORDER BY LATE DAY SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 70 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
MLC 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 66 92 68 93 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 65 89 66 90 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 66 88 68 89 / 20 20 10 10
MKO 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 68 90 68 91 / 10 10 0 10
F10 68 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 68 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS AFTN
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE MTNS. THIS WAS WELL
DEPICTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH HAVE THE CONVECTION STEERING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO
THE CONVECTION IS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN SECTIONS. ANY CONVECTION THAT SURVIVES
TO THE PIEDMONT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A RELATIVE LULL WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO NW FLOW AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO MINS.
DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW
SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. ANY DAYBREAK MORNING
SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW SECTIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTN IN LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS.
HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME MEASURE OF
CAPPING THROUGHOUT. ANTICIPATE MAXES REBOUNDING ANOTHER CATEGORY
ABOVE FRI VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE U.S.
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE....A WEAK CAD
CONFIGURATION IS FORECAST IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE NE FLOW OVER
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SE BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AND THEN TO SW ON MONDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATTHER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO SAT EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THANKS
TO WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GRADAULLY VEERS TO THE SE...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
GOOD BET OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION SHOULD FADE SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE DUE
TO WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE AT BEST INSTABILITY. MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY
SEE THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION AS SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MARGINALLY IMPROVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY AND THEN A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO ON MONDAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OUT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST. WE MAY BEGIN WITH A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
AND THUS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT ANCHORED.
INSTEAD... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROF DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY
SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE.
THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THUS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN-VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER END VFR CUMULUS AROUND
THE AIRFIELD UNTIL ANY WRN FOOTHILLS SHOWERS MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE
METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SE RUN IN ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE...WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
LIGHT NW WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY BUT WITH ANY SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD PIEDMONT
STRATUS AT DAYBREAK...BUT IT LOOKS MUCH MORE UNLIKELY THAN PREVIOUS
MORNINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WEAK CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTN AND STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH THIS SE THROUGH LATE AFTN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDER HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS SFC BASED
INSTABILITIES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL THUS MENTION ONLY VCSH AT KAVL
AND THE FOOTHILL SITES THROUGH AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NW
FLOW AT THE NC TAF SITES AND SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TOGGLING SW AT THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES IN WEAK LEE TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO N FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE
NAM HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS AT KAVL. WILL JUST HINT THIS WAY
WITH FEW010...BUT WILL GO THE CONSENSUS ROUTE ON VFR. ANY MORNING
SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING LOOK
TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT PRESENT.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNALLY FAVORED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW AND THEN WASHES OUT NEARBY THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT LOW 57% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/PM
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN READILY WARMING THIS MORNING SO INCREASED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM REMNANT CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INHIBIT FULL
INSOLATION.
SECONDLY...EXAMINED HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL LATELY AND
THE TREND LOOKS TO BE CONTINUING TODAY AS INITIALIZATION WAS POOR
AND THE HRRR IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP. DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT UNTIL
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER...WILL LET THE
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
UPSTREAM IN MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION.
IT HAS BEEN SINCE OCTOBER 2ND 2014 SINCE WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE THINKS
WE WILL MAKE IT TO 90 DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER COMING IN AT 92 DEGREES. I HAVE MY DOUBTS...AND
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE APPROACHING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
HELPS JUSTIFY THOSE DOUBTS. FURTHERMORE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
TOO WARM LATELY. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...88 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT AND RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 4-6 DM OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE BENCHMARK OF 90 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 95
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT MIDDLE 90S ARE NOT LIKELY. WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES
FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOVE OUR DIRECTION...DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT GETTING CLOSER EACH NIGHT. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A FEW
STORMS REACH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR SUGGEST THEY WON`T BE VERY STRONG IF THE DO MAKE IT.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT I DO NOT SEE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER...THESE MCS`S ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT
MORE THAN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...SO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS
MAY BE IN ORDER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME OUR MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. WE
SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S INSTEAD OF UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 16Z HRRR
DEVELOPS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF TSRA DROPPING FROM JBR TO MEM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER INCORRECTLY INITIALING THE
SOURCE REGION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO AT 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...BUT WILL LEAVE A VCTS AT MEM AND INTRODUCE ONLY A SHORT
TEMPO TSRA AT JBR.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIVE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS GROUND FOG COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP AT MKL IF CLOUDS BREAK UP FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS COMPOSED OF UA LOW
DISTURBANCES IMPINGING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS...WHILST UA
RIDGING CONTINUED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE RATHER SLOW ENEWRD TRANSLATING UA LOW NOTED ACROSS SRN CALI IN
PARTICULAR HAS AIDED IN STREAMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS /INCLUDING
HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE ANDRES/ ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LOW SYSTEM NW OF THE
REGION HAS PROMOTED MODEST S-SE SFC BREEZES /10-20 MPH SUSTAINED/
AND THUS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS SUCH DESPITE AN UA
RIDGE OVERHEAD /AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND/...TEMPS
HAVE ONLY BEEN CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST CNTRL NM LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A MEAN
FLOW WIND OF 15-20 KTS DIRECTED OUT OF THE S-SW...THESE STORMS MAY
BE HARD-PRESSED TO REACH THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND THE HRRR DO HINT AT A FEW STRAY STORMS
THAT COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING. IF SO...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO AOA 5-10 MPH. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. TOMORROW...THE UA LOW
ACROSS SRN CALI WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO SRN NV HENCE MAKING VERY
LITTLE HEADWAY...WHILST THE UA RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...STORMS NEARING THE WRN/NWRN ZONES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EARLY EVENING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM. 29
.LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS TRENDS STILL APPEAR MOSTLY ON TRACK REQUIRING FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND UPPER
RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW
MORE PRESSURE FROM MOIST FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. LOW CHANCE THUNDER BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND EDGED AGAINST NORTHWEST CORNER STILL VALID. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFUSED WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND HELP
MAXIMIZE THUNDER OPPORTUNITY BY TUESDAY. AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE SO PERHAPS
WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FAVORING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. AFTER THIS WAVE CLEARS TO THE EAST UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD
REBOUND NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ROGUE STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY BUT WE ARE HOLDING TO A DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS
SHOW. THEN...A MORE BULLISH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALSO
PERHAPS BECOMING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFUSED WITH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A MORE STOUT COLD FRONT ALSO MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY
EARLY SATURDAY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER
END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS SCENARIO. SO AS ALREADY
STATED...NOT MANY CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 85 63 87 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 64 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 64 87 64 88 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 65 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER NEAR KGLS...WENT WITH A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY GET AN
OCCASIONAL VFR CIG THIS AFTN. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD VFR CONDS. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING... WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. MAIN UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD MENTION OF THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS... ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
TOP OUT NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY.
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR STORM MOVING INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY SO ADDED 20
POPS. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NOW THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS VIRTUALLY NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SE TX ALLOWING FOR WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS A LONE STORM OFF SABINE PASS THAT FORMED ALONG A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AND MOVE INTO
GALVESTON AS RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE. PROBLEM IS THAT HRRR IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AND HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE SHOULD IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON. THE
00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDING SHOW AROUND 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL THEN.
TUE/WED NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND AFFECT E TX BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT WORTH AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE HAVING A WEAKER WAVE THE ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH FUTURE FORECAST DATA. TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
THERE IS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN.
39
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES...WITH ISO SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY
BE CHANGING DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO TRANSLATE
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS THE WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST EXPECTED WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE NOW SHOWING
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WITH 12Z SOUNDING VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES AT KRNK...ABOUT 120
PERCENT OF NORMAL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE OPENING UP PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL ERODE AND BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION BY A WEAK FRONT DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MURKY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SHOW
MARKED IMPROVEMENT TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE EXTRA SUN AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE LOW THANKS TO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...ENHANCED
ALOFT BY SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK
OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FRONT WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE THE THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. MODELS BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS WEDGE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
MAY KEEP WEDGE FEATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM
TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITIES WITH
THIS FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. KEPT SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
EXISTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR KROA AND WESTWARD AND VCSH FURTHER
EAST IN THE MORE STABLE AIR. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES
EAST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY STALL
OUT IN THE GENERAL AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR STILL MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
206 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
EXPECTED QUIET WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY
ANTICYCLONIC. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOTED ACRS CNTRL WI AND
ALSO A DRIER SURGE COMING DOWN THE LAKE SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT
IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S FOR
WESTERN 2/3RDS OR SO OF THE CWA.
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH
NUDGING SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LLVL RH DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER SOME SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EARLY SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM
MOS AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES ZONAL AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES
TO AROUND 85 KNOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THE WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. AT 500 MB THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES CHAOTIC DUE TO THE MODEL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A SUNDAY MORNING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE 700 MB SPEED MAX PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE 925 MB LAYER RELATIVELY COOLER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION. 925 MB LAYERS WARM AGAIN DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON. ON THE SLOWER GFS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS DOES
INCREASE THE ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 2000 JOULES/KG
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PRODUCES GREATER POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAN THE NAM.
THE GFS NSHARP DOES SHOW A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR WITH MORE OF A CURVED HODOGRAPH. THERE DOES SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL
OF LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE MID LEVELS DRY TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH MUCH LESS CAPE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE 250 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS WEAK TO MODERATE
UPWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...BUT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY NORTH TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. THEN THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASES THURSDAY ON THE FASTER GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STILL DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
.FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER...SLOWER AND MORE BROAD TROUGH BACK
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE GFS PUTS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT FROM IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SURFACE HIGH NUDGING SOUTH FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR VCNTY. EXTRAP OF VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LLVL RH
DECREASES FOR A TIME TONIGHT PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME MORE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SAT WITH ERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SREF CIGS PROBS/NAM MOS AND RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. OVERALL MORE SUN FOR SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BORDERLINE GUSTS COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
&&
.BEACHES...LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH. GIVEN THE COOL WATER TEMPS AND AIR
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
...WILL CONTINUE THE PRIOR SHIFT IDEA OF NOT ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ