Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
825 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN
SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE
OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z
NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF
ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW
LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS
ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END
OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND
PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN
3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE STAYED HIGHER THAN SOME OF THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HAD INITIALLY INDICATED...THINK THAT CIGS
AT COS AND PUB WILL DROP LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 00Z TAFS
WILL CARRY AN IFR CIG FROM 12Z TO 15Z AT KCOS. WILL KEEP KPUB IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE BASED AS WE SEE
HOW THE NIGHT EVOLVES. CIGS SHOULD BREAK WED MORNING BY AROUND 16Z
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS AND DRIFTING OFF INTO THE SE PLAINS. HAVE PUT VCTS IN FOR
KCOS FOR NOW...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KPUB FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY
LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
537 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE STAYED HIGHER THAN SOME OF THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HAD INITIALLY INDICATED...THINK THAT CIGS
AT COS AND PUB WILL DROP LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 00Z TAFS
WILL CARRY AN IFR CIG FROM 12Z TO 15Z AT KCOS. WILL KEEP KPUB IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE BASED AS WE SEE
HOW THE NIGHT EVOLVES. CIGS SHOULD BREAK WED MORNING BY AROUND 16Z
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS AND DRIFTING OFF INTO THE SE PLAINS. HAVE PUT VCTS IN FOR
KCOS FOR NOW...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KPUB FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY
LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ONLY CLOUDS ARE A FEW CIRRUS
RACING OVERHEAD AND A FEW Q DOWN IN SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS OF 130
PM. WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 90
ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE SOME ISOLD TSRA THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE Q WERE DEVELOPING ALREADY
OVER FAR SE LAS ANIMAS AS OF 130. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE OF CO BY EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO OTHER
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE FAR SE PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
PALMER DVD BY SUNRISE.
TOMORROW...
OVERALL...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE NM BORDER BY
LATE MORNING AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THIS UPSLOPE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE WITH A 2NDRY FRONT THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN N OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. LIKEWISE...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO
HAPPEN IN OUR CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE SE COLO PLAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD.
SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN ALL THE INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY OVER THE PALMER
DVD AND NWD...MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS N EL PASO...N OTERO AND N KIOWA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY.
IF STORMS DO INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE. FWIW...NAM GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3500 J/KG OVER NE KIOWA
COUNTY AT 00Z TOMORROW.
I NEED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IF THE 2NDRY FRONT DOES SURGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY EARLY THU
MORNING. TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
60 DEGF DEWPOINTS PUSH WESTWARD INTO CO...WITH NAM CAPES OF 3-4K
J/KG NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WED EVENING. HARD TO FIND MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST TERRAIN FORCED TSRA
DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING. NAM DOES HINT AS SOME TSRA FORMING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE WED NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN PLACE FOR
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOST PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT
WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 40 KTS)
ON THU...FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NM BORDER EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS WAITING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION UNTIL THU EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
HUNCH IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT MAY GIVE THE FRONT A BIGGER
SOUTHWARD SHOVE THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE MARGINAL IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AND WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN
36-48 HR RANGE TO BETTER REFINE BOTH SEVERE THREAT AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LOW
PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHEARING
NORTHEAST LATE SUN/MON. STILL SOME THREAT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...THOUGH 12Z MODELS AREN`T
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY MOVING THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA
NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION REGARDING POSITION OF COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
FRONT DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF WAS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AREA-WIDE
FRI...THEN AGAIN SUN/MON AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
STRENGTHENS. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SLOPES IF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
PLAINS CAN BE PUSHED WESTWARD BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. FORECAST IS RATHER BROAD BRUSHED WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS
THROUGH TUE...WHICH LOOKS OK FOR NOW. TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON CONVECTION...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGF OF EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE THREAT AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
EVENING. THE THREAT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER DURING THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1012 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CT/WESTERN MA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13
SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES...AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN TACONICS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS COULD EVEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP/EXPAND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS WELL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES YIELDING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 50S...COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT ASSUMING LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OF ON TIMING OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CLOSE TO AVERAGE...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY.
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHERE CLOUDS VS. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SET UP. WILL MENTION THE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH UPPER 40S...AND LOWER TO MID 50S FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SOUTH OF
ALBANY WITH LIMITED FORCING.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATING MODEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST
UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER QUEBEC. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CLOUDS MAY HOLD
FOR A WHILE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WESTWARD...BUT SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AT GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OR LESS. THE NAM IS SHOWING
HIGHER VALUES COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS. ALSO 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20-
25 KTS SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD START TO
WANE AFTER DARK. ALSO MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED AS 1Z GFS/CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND IT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP IT DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 70S. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THESE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST...AND IS
FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING POTENT UPPER AIR LOW MOVING
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...INCREASE CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT BY MONDAY.
DESPITE THE FACT THE LATEST GFS INDICATED ONLY MEAGER CAPE FOR
MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE WERE TO GET SOME SUNSHINE...THE AIRMASS COULD
EASILY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
THE FRONT GOES BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ENERGY FROM THE STRONG UPPER
AIR LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA...COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER
70S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY
MORNING...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSYBS/CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08Z-
11Z/THU...MAINLY AT KPSF AND KGFL...AS SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
GROUND FOG FORMS. AS A LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPS AFTER
08Z/THU...SOME LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT
KALB/KGFL...BUT AGAIN...IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-
13Z/THU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST OCCASIONAL HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 80 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5
MPH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE. 12Z
NAM/14Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM...SO UPDATED POPS WEIGHED TOWARDS A
BLEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI
NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
THROUGH.
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY IFR CIGS
IN LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME LOCAL OCCASIONAL MVFR REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THE WHOLE NIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTING
EARLY WED. NE WINDS NEAR 10 KT...LOWER A FEW KTS TONIGHT AND THEN
BECOME MORE E-SE WED INCREASING BACK TO NEAR 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 2 SM POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.
IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 2 SM POSSIBLE BEFORE 01Z.
IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF AROUND 1/10 TO 3/4 INCH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ZONES. THE
STILL RIVER AT BROOKVILLE IN NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS THIS MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO
RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...2 JUNE 2015
LOCATION RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FORECAST HIGH TODAY
CENTRAL PARK 52/1946 56
BRIDGEPORT 61/1976 55
ISLIP 59/1997 55
LAGUARDIA 53/1946 56
NEWARK 54/1946 58
J F KENNEDY 62/2005 56
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/MALOIT/JP
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT/JP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE. 12Z
NAM/14Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM...SO UPDATED POPS WEIGHED TOWARDS A
BLEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI
NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
THROUGH.
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM IFR TO
MARGINAL VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. BY LATE MORNING CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL VFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO MID AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...030 TO 060
TRUE...10 TO 15 KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
CHANGING CONDITIONS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME IFR
THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE CEILINGS REMAIN MARGINAL VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR THIS MORNING...AND COULD BE
SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MARGINAL VFR TO VFR FIRST...AROUND 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF AROUND 1/10 TO 3/4 INCH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ZONES. THE
STILL RIVER AT BROOKVILLE IN NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS THIS MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO
RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...2 JUNE 2015
LOCATION RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FORECAST HIGH TODAY
CENTRAL PARK 52/1946 56
BRIDGEPORT 61/1976 55
ISLIP 59/1997 55
LAGUARDIA 53/1946 56
NEWARK 54/1946 58
J F KENNEDY 62/2005 56
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/24
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/24
HYDROLOGY...JP/24
CLIMATE...MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF FA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS UPSTREAM RAINFALL MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS COUNTY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY IS
CURRENTLY EXHIBITING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...THIS
TOO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FGEN ALOFT FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO MINOR UPDATE THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT/MDT RAIN. EXPECTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER
INTO THE LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE AT ALL THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BTWN
08Z-12Z WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED AT MOST OF THE SITES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WAS KPSF WHERE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WERE USED
AFTER 08Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IFR/LOW MVFR LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE PCPN DWINDLING.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR
LEVELS...AND EVENTUALLY TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION FROM THE N TO NE AT 3-6 KTS OR BE
CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE N TO NW AT 4-8
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1219 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF FA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS UPSTREAM RAINFALL MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS COUNTY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY IS
CURRENTLY EXHIBITING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...THIS
TOO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FGEN ALOFT FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO MINOR UPDATE THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLE LIFR/ EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO CALM WINDS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
A KPSF WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...AS THE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA TODAY. ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE POCONOS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE RAIN
SHOWERS FILLING IN FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO POPS
AND QPF WERE INCREASED A TOUCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGHEST QPF
UP TO 1/3 INCH IS POSSIBLE FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST NJ.
THICK CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH TODAY. LAV GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, NOT RISING MUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PRECIP ACRS THE SRN AREAS, MOST
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN DREARY AND COOL. WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER OVER THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE DURING THAT PERIOD
OF TIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND VICINITY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. A ROBUST MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART
OF OUR REGION EACH DAY. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WARM FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS MAY BE VARIABLE POSSIBLY REACHING 1,000 FEET OR SO AT
TIMES, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5
MILES AS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE BETWEEN RDG AND TTN
THROUGH 20Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS. ALSO, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA AS WELL. THERE CUD BE A DROP BELOW SCA DURG THE
MRNG TODAY, BUT CONDS SHUD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF A NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING
AROUND 25 KNOTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND AND TODAY`S FULL MOON, WE
WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX FOR CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL
AND THE SE ATLC SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH AN INVERTED H100-H70 TROF
OVER THE FL STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS TO KEEP THE LCL LOW/MID LVL PGRAD
FIELD DISRUPTED. WINDS THRU 10KFT AOB 10KTS...VEERING FROM E/SE 5KT
TO E/NE BTWN 5-10KFT. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H85-H50 VORT MIN DRAPED
OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR... UPR LVL JET PATTERN SHOWS A DIGGING 50-60KT
JET OVER GA AND A LIFTING 70KT JET N OF THE BAHAMAS...PLACING
CENTRAL FL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THEIR DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT AND
LEFT REAR QUADS RESPECTIVELY.
EVNG KXMR/KMFL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
H100-H70 LYR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW TO PUSH BRIEF ISOLD SHRAS ONSHORE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...BUT THESE RARELY HAVE ANY SIG IMPACT.
EVNG UPDATE BASICALLY TO REFRESH WORDING...SO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES
NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 05/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/04Z...E 7-10KTS BCMG LGT/VRBL...CONTG THRU
04/13Z. BTWN 04/13Z-04/16Z...BCMG NE 7-11KTS...CONTG THRU 05/00Z.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES. THRU 04/15Z...SLGT CHC
BRIEF MVFR SHRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT 04/15Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR
TSRAS S OF KISM-KFPR...SLGT CHC N OF KISM-KFPR.
&&
.MARINE...
LCL ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN A AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
A STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A WEAK
SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD. LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT MAINLY DUE TO A LINGERING E/NE SWELL...
DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
...CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE SHUNTING THE WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WAS PRODUCING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUITE FAR SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WAS
PRODUCING A MASSIVE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WAS APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY AND
LIMIT DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION. STILL...COOL TEMPS ALOFT...INCREASED
MOISTURE...WEAK SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ACTIVE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON THEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAUSING
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INLAND AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EVENING.
THE HIGH (70-80) POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING THAT NEEDS UPDATING.
DUE TO LIMITED HEATING AND A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT FROM THAT WHICH
OCCURRED YESTERDAY (LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS). STORMS WILL STILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG TO LOCAL
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MICROBURSTS. OF COURSE...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH
LOOK TO BE JUST INLAND AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING STRATUS WAS INDICATIVE OF THE OVERALL
MOISTENING PROCESS IN PLACE. EXPECT THAT STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF IFR IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION 18-19Z ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THEN
CELLS PROPAGATING TO THE INTERIOR TERMINALS 20-24Z...WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND
FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH MORNING. THE STORMS THAT FIRE OVER OVER THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BUT SOME COULD PROVIDE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS TO THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTING OF TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER OUR REGION WITHIN A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME HEALTHY
KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR JUNE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TO SOUTH FLORIDA/FL STRAITS. REGIONAL RADARS
ARE QUIET OVER THE LAND MASS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
BEGINNING TO SEE ACTIVITY EXPAND/MIGRATE INTO THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS STILL WELL OFFSHORE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A "WASHOUT" WOULD NOT BE A GOOD DESCRIPTION OF TODAY FROM A
FORECAST STANDPOINT...HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR JUNE.
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXPANDING
OVER OUR HEADS THROUGH THE DAY...AND CONTRIBUTING TO A DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WE DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...WITH MOST OF OUR RAINFALL RESULTING FROM MORE
MESOSCALE SEA-BREEZE/HEATING PROCESSES. THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY
SYNOPTIC HELP IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSOLATION. JUST HOW THE SHOWERS WILL
EVOLVE SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY TODAY IS OF LOWER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE...BUT FEEL HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE A GOOD BET FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THEN WOULD EXPECT MOST
SPOTS TO BE DODGING SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AND HOLD ALL AREAS IN THE 80S TODAY.
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE OUT OF THE LOWER/MID 80S.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER JET ENERGY PIVOTING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF THE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AND DIURNAL SUPPORT SHOULD ACT TO QUIET THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN AS WE SHIFT TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE INTERACTION OF
THE SEA-BREEZE AND SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
INCREASINGLY FAVORING THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE FOR BEST
CONVERGENCE TOMORROW. AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE EAST/SE 1000-700MB FLOW...WHICH IS ONE OF OUR
MORE ACTIVE SEA- BREEZE REGIMES. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REALLY DRY
OUT THE COLUMN ABOVE 500MB FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE
BALANCING FACTOR TO KEEP THE CONVECTION DOWN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER...AND WILL AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO DETERMINE DEGREE TO WHICH IT
WILL HINDER CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ABSORBS THE
CUTOFF LOW...FORMING AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWN THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
FLORIDA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WEAK EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH A LATE AFTERNOON COLLISION
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFTER DARK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH KLAL HAS SEEN PERIODS OF LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT
THESE CIG RESTRICTIONS TO LIFT AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING AND
FORWARD...WITH ANY BRIEF DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO FORM DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT SHOULD STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER COVERAGE EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG IMPACT...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 72 88 74 / 70 50 40 30
FMY 86 71 89 72 / 70 50 40 30
GIF 87 70 89 72 / 70 50 50 30
SRQ 84 72 86 72 / 70 50 40 30
BKV 87 67 88 68 / 70 50 40 30
SPG 85 73 87 75 / 70 50 40 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1023 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT...BUT STILL WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE
UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED LI/S REMAIN NEAR -4 IN THE
CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND. THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ALSO FAVORS HAIL.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS CAN HANDLE PRECIPITATION WITH
VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE IFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY
ALSO BE LIMITED.
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. WILL HANDLE STORMS WITH A
VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT...BUT STILL WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE
UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED LI/S REMAIN NEAR -4 IN THE
CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND. THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ALSO FAVORS HAIL.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LATEST RADAR
RETURNS SHOW SOME STRONG STORMS NEAR AGS/DNL...WHICH ADDRESS WITH
TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 01Z THURSDAY. MAY ADJUST TIMES OF TEMPO GROUPS AS
NECESSARY.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL USE VCTS AT CAE/CUB/OGB MAINLY 02Z-06Z
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ADJUST TIMES AS NECESSARY. CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
LATE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED
INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEEN REACHED AFTER A SLOW
START AND CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO POP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR FROM CHARLESTON TO MCCLELLANVILLE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH MORE ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE FARTHER INLAND AIDED BY BROAD
UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER EASTERN
TENNESSEE WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
DCAPES RISING TO 800-1000 J/KG...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK
FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS--MAINLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...ALTHOUGH A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. COULD SEE FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TRAINING AND A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST POTENTIAL COLLIDING WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE AFTER SUNSET. HIGH-END LIKELY POPS OF 70 PERCENT WILL
BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGHER GRIDDED POPS SHIFTING INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
ORGANIZES FARTHER INLAND...A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS COULD APPROACH THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP 30-40
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...EXCEPT MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AT DAYBREAK A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. THROUGH THE DAY THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL SLOWLY SWING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...AND PWATS OF 1.60-1.75 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20-25 KTS AND WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG...A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 600
J/KG WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS PRIMARY THREAT. SPC DOES
HAVE THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOW 80S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DECENT FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT WILL STILL BE IN
THE VICINITY SO THERE WILL AGAIN BE FORCING MECHANISMS PRESENT TO
KICK OFF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE POOR...BUT DECENT SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...SO
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND/LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST...HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HAVE
DECREASED POPS A BIT TO LOW CHANCES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WEAK
SHEAR...POOR LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
RETREATS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER
TO SOME DEGREE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY EVEN RISING JUST ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...THE SEABREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND OF KCHS AS OF 18Z...THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE
TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE AND THE CONVECTION WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...BUT SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THANKS TO DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW.
KSAV...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS BEEN LESS
THAN ANTICIPATED SO FAR TODAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY OVERHEAD OF KSAV AT 18Z. THE
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR
KSAV LOOKS TO BE 19Z TO 22Z. VFR CEILINGS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
FILL IN FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN STORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NO CONCERNS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER/NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY AT
TIMES HOWEVER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FEET ON AVERAGE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/ECT/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW DRIVEN
SE CENTRAL GA AND PORTIONS OF NW GA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE
NORTHERN PORTION WAS DELAYED IN DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND SO HAS NOT BEEN AS WORKED OVER. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING SOME 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE STILL LINGERING AND HRRR
HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT PUSHING EASTWARD NEAR THE METRO
AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THINKING IT
WILL NOT QUITE HOLD TOGETHER WITH LOSING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
FRONT NOT STRONG ENOUGH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS ATLANTA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN TWEAKING POP
TRENDS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO PRECIP/INSOLATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
ALREADY. AS SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3 MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE AS WELL.
BIGGEST THREATS REMAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL TO AROUND
SEVERE LIMITS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1.3-1.6
RANGE...ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT NOT EXTREME...WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL ARE ALSO SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW/TROUGH
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DISPLACE
THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MARKED DIURNAL BIAS.
20
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THEREFORE... STILL EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /39
PREVIOUS LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
TERM SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS FILL THE UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE BUT
KEEPS THE H5 TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL GET A SLIGHT PUSH EASTWARD AS A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA EACH DAY IN THE
LONG TERM. NO BIG CHANGE OF AIR MASS AND THEREFORE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE IN DAY TO DAY CHANGES OF MAX TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR BUT CONTINUED CONCERN FOR IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL WATCH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST LATER TODAY WITH AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING WSW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 81 64 83 64 / 60 50 50 50
ATLANTA 82 65 82 65 / 50 40 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 75 60 76 58 / 60 50 50 40
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 82 62 / 50 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 86 67 86 67 / 50 40 50 40
GAINESVILLE 81 64 80 63 / 60 50 50 40
MACON 83 66 86 65 / 60 50 50 50
ROME 82 62 82 62 / 50 40 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 83 63 83 64 / 50 40 50 40
VIDALIA 85 68 85 68 / 70 60 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
832 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SE OREGON AND SW
IDAHO...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SEVERELY DIMINISHED AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER A FACTOR AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MOST CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY. TWO LONELY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ONE IS LOCATED IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS EAST OF
MCCALL AND ANOTHER IN NE OWYHEE COUNTY...CLOSE TO THE OREGON
BORDER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE
REGION/S SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT /EXCEPT ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER/ ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND TO IT/S NORTH AND
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ACROSS SW IDAHO....THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TERRIBLY
EXCITING. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS/ ENDING BY 03Z.
SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE
TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AS
CONVECTIVE TOPS APPROACH 35K FT NEAR THE NV BORDER AS OF 2 PM.
RADAR WAS SHOWING EXPANDING ECHOES FROM SE OWYHEE THROUGH TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES....WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES APPROACHING JARBIDGE AS
OF 2 PM. S-CENTRAL IDAHO IS WHERE GFS SHOWS 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR AND -4C LI WITH THE RAP INDICATING SOME CAPE TO 400J/KG...FOR
A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LIFT EXITS THE
AREA TO THE NE LEAVING THE INTERSTATE-84 CORRIDOR FROM BAKER TO
TWIN FALLS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. AREAS ALONG THE NV BORDER NEARER
THE LOW WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATE
SHOWER THERE. THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS SW IDAHO AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS SE OREGON EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER. SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES OF THE NV BORDER
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MAINLY EAST
OF A MCCALL- IDAHO CITY LINE...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE PRECIP-FREE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE A SURGE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING HAS VARIED AND HOW MUCH PRECIP AND
WHERE THE MAX WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN STILL. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WORK
AROUND THE LOW FROM OFFSHORE ON THE SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON UP OVER NV THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS. THIS COULD FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...OR IF
UPPER SUPPORT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE MAX COULD END UP OVER
S-CENTRAL OR CENTRAL IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLE TO TONE DOWN SOME INCH IN
ABOUT 12 HR VALUES SEEN IN SOME RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRIDAY DUE
TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES /AROUND 0.7 INCHES/ AND SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENTS /10-15 MPH/.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO STAY ROUGHLY STATIONARY OVER NEVADA AND SLOWLY GET
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL TO TAP INTO AND BRING NORTH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH /NOW HURRICANE/ BLANCA. AT THE SAME TIME... AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR AND BE SLIGHTLY
FOLDED OVER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT. THE BORDER OF INFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES /LAYING
NW TO SE/ WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA SEES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...BUT LEFTOVER
MOISTURE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
936 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH ADAMS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE WERE BEING FORCED BY
ONE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO.
ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING WITH A SPIN ON WATERVAPOR/IR OVER OREGON
THIS MORNING WILL CROSS MAINLY NE OREGON TO WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
TODAY. TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IDAHO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 500 J/LG CAPE AND -4 LI. WET BULB TEMPS ARE RATHER
LOW...6600 FT...SO COULD SEE SMALL HAIL. DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 700
J/KG AND HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME MAX WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. STORMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...SW TO NE 25-30 MPH. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER
ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST. SOME LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER SHEAR ALIGNS WITH WARMER
TEMPS AND GREATER BOUYANCY. MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CHANCE OF
STORMS WED. AFTERNOON ACROSS IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KLKV-KBOI-FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE
FIRST IS MOVING THROUGH SE OREGON AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER
COMING ON THE COAST. THE SECOND WILL ACT TO AID CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO BOISE TO
STANLEY. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YDAY AND THEREFORE
BOTH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY IN SE OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YDAY...AND THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BRING READINGS UP 3-5
DEGREES ON WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA SOME OF WHICH IS SHOWN TO BE ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST
PERIOD AND THUS HAVE ABOVE CLIMO POPS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN TO EASTERN TX THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
MUCH OF ILLINOIS, BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NEAR AND SOUTH OF
MATTOON THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFTING UPPER
LOW TO THE SE. WITH THAT CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING TOO WARM TODAY. HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AS A RESULT, WITH MENTION OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
DROPPING THE HIGH BY A DEGREE OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FROM SW MICHIGAN SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ALONG A LINE INCLUDING CHAMPAIGN TO
DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-70. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY. THOSE TWO THINGS SHOULD WORK TO REDUCE OUR CLOUD
COVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CU RULE OUTPUT INDICATES ONLY MINOR
CU FORMATION DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WE WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE GRIDS. SINCE 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT
APPRECIABLY WARM TODAY OVER YESTERDAY...THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
TODAY OVER YESTERDAY ALONE SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH CAROLINA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THURSDAY...MAINLY I-57 WESTWARD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LINKS UP WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING PAST THE ILLINOIS RIVER DURING THE DAY...
AND THE GFS ACTUALLY KEEPS US PRETTY MUCH DRY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TO AN EXTENT...
BRING AN MCS THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POP`S I-55
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HEALTHY 40-50% POP`S EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY.
TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
STRONGER WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STARTS TO COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BY SUNDAY. HAVE LARGELY KEPT JUST 20% POP`S
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT INCLUDED HEALTHY CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS BOTH MODELS FEATURE SOME SORT OF MCS POTENTIAL NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST AS SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THAT DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LINGERING BAND OF LOW VFR
CLOUDS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF SITES OF PIA, BMI, AND SPI FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. TURBULENT MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SCOUR THEM OUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF I-70 THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD NOT REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS DEC. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY,
PULLING THOSE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST IL BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE RAP AND NAM SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE IN
THE CLOUD LAYER, SO GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CU
RULES SHOW ONLY MINOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING PEAK
HEATING, SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT.
WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST, THEN BECOME EAST BY 15-16Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 7-10KT. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FROM SW MICHIGAN SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ALONG A LINE INCLUDING CHAMPAIGN TO
DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-70. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY. THOSE TWO THINGS SHOULD WORK TO REDUCE OUR CLOUD
COVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CU RULE OUTPUT INDICATES ONLY MINOR
CU FORMATION DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WE WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE GRIDS. SINCE 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT
APPRECIABLY WARM TODAY OVER YESTERDAY...THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
TODAY OVER YESTERDAY ALONE SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH CAROLINA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THURSDAY...MAINLY I-57 WESTWARD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LINKS UP WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING PAST THE ILLINOIS RIVER DURING THE DAY...
AND THE GFS ACTUALLY KEEPS US PRETTY MUCH DRY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TO AN EXTENT...
BRING AN MCS THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POP`S I-55
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HEALTHY 40-50% POP`S EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY.
TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
STRONGER WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STARTS TO COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BY SUNDAY. HAVE LARGELY KEPT JUST 20% POP`S
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT INCLUDED HEALTHY CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS BOTH MODELS FEATURE SOME SORT OF MCS POTENTIAL NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST AS SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THAT DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LINGERING BAND OF LOW VFR
CLOUDS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF SITES OF PIA, BMI, AND SPI FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. TURBULENT MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SCOUR THEM OUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF I-70 THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD NOT REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS DEC. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY,
PULLING THOSE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST IL BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE RAP AND NAM SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE IN
THE CLOUD LAYER, SO GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CU
RULES SHOW ONLY MINOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING PEAK
HEATING, SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT.
WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST, THEN BECOME EAST BY 15-16Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 7-10KT. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO
AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SFC OBS SHOWING SPORADIC VSBY DROPS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS
GROUND FOG WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR THROUGH SUNRISE BUT
RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG (DENSE FOG) LOOKS VERY LOW.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN
SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND 50 AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS OF PERIOD OF BLOCKED MID TROP FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDWEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS GULF OF AK ENERGY BECOMES
CUTOFF ACRS NRN CA LATE WED. HGTS BUILD ACRS CNTL CONUS INTO WRN
GRTLKS WHILE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED OUT AS IT LIFTS NEWD FM INTMTN REGION THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND
WRN GRTLKS BY WED NIGHT. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENTLY HAVE ESCHEWED DRY
FORECAST WITH SALIENT CUTS AGAINST LOW CHCS AFFORDED BY BLENDED POPS
UNTIL FRI. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO CWA /THETA-E
PLUME HELD WELL WEST OF CWA/ ALONG WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH CWA TWIXT PLAINS FOCUS AND SLOW EASTWARD SHIFTING
CUTOFF THROUGH TN VLY INTO CAROLINAS...AFFORDING QUITE WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/COL. MORE SUCCINCT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT THROUGH PERIPHERY
OF PLAINS RIDGE DY4/5 TIMEFRAME WITH AT LEAST DIFFUSE SFC BNDRY TO
APPROACH WRN GRTLKS THEN LYING OUT IN E/W FASHION THROUGH SRN
GRTLKS...SETTLING INTO OHIO VLY SAT. TARGET BEST CHCS FOR TSRA
FRI/FRI NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD END OF
FCST PD CONCEDING BLENDED POPS...WITH ADDNL EFFECTS/TSRA CHCS
ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES EMANATING FM PROLIFIC
UPSTREAM/GULF OF AK VORTEX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FOG LOOP SHOWING AREA OF STRATUS TRYING TO WORK WESTWARD THROUGH
NW OHIO WITH RUC TRYING TO MOVE THIS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF NE
INDIANA INCLUDING KFWA. KAOH BRIEFLY REPORTED 5SM IN FOG BUT THIS
HAS SINCE ENDED. WILL BE LEAVING TEMPO GROUP AT KFWA SINCE IT
LIKELY WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY OF TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WILL MONITOR WESTWARD TREND OF STRATUS FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. AT KSBN...NO WORRIES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CIRRUS TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FEW VFR CU MAY POPS LATE AM INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 457 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF BROAD MID LVL
TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW SUBSIDENT/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE TO SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE LOWER/EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CUT OFF UPPER
PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IN DEFORMATION AXIS GRADUALLY SINKING
SE OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR FULL
DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES DOES BRING PATCHY FOG INTO QUESTION GIVEN
MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO FILL BACK INTO OUR SE ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...BULK OF GUIDANCE/SREF PROBABILITIES NOT ALL
THAT EXCITED ABOUT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL WITH AIRMASS ADVECTING IN
RATHER DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY FOG IN THE FCST FOR NOW
GIVEN THESE TRENDS. AMPLE SUNSHINE (ALTHOUGH EXPECT AT LEAST A
SCATTERED CU FIELD TO POP) AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION TOMORROW
SHOULD AFFORD A DECENT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOW
70S...STILL 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. DRY WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS OTHERWISE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PICTURE IN TERMS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ON EVOLUTION OF CUT
OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
EVENING AS ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION
TO WORK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE A BETTER AFTERNOON CU FIELD...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY FOR GIVEN VERY WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY. NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY POP UP DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST IF A
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF PV
ANOMALY TO THE SOUTH VERIFIES. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. OVERALL TREND
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES HAS BEEN TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE CUT OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MID ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD...BRINGING
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE CORN BELT AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE PHASING DISCREPANCIES WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING MID ATLANTIC PV ANOMALY. AT THIS
POINT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
PRECIP POTENTIAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH FRIDAY WAVE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HANGING UP ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE MAY DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH DAY 7. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH MODERATION ONCE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FOG LOOP SHOWING AREA OF STRATUS TRYING TO WORK WESTWARD THROUGH
NW OHIO WITH RUC TRYING TO MOVE THIS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF NE
INDIANA INCLUDING KFWA. KAOH BRIEFLY REPORTED 5SM IN FOG BUT THIS
HAS SINCE ENDED. WILL BE LEAVING TEMPO GROUP AT KFWA SINCE IT
LIKELY WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY OF TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WILL MONITOR WESTWARD TREND OF STRATUS FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. AT KSBN...NO WORRIES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CIRRUS TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FEW VFR CU MAY POPS LATE AM INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
928 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO GO DRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS HENRY COUNTY ILLINOIS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS FROM THE RAP
MODEL SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE TRYING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF KALO. THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY MOVES
EAST.
00Z UA DATA INDICATES THE NEW NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND HAVING IT GROW UPSCALE AND
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. THE 18Z
UKMET/GFS/WRF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS DID RAP TRENDS OF THE
PAST 4 HOURS. THE INCOMING 00Z WRF RUN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED PRIOR TO REACHING THE
AREA.
A MATURE/DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSTJ/KFNB AT
SUNRISE THURSDAY. BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DICTATE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS/EVOLVES
ON THURSDAY. DATA CURRENTLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT POTENTIALLY WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON TRENDS...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE
UKMET/WRF/GFS AND RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL WATCH TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND WERE MOVING EAST. LACK OF
CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. 3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST FORCING AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
EXIST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE MODELS TOTALLY DRY. I WILL ONLY HAVE 30
POPS DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST MAINLY IN THE PLAINS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.
LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
POOR WITH SOLUTIONS POOR ABILITY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN TRANSLATE
THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERIFICATION
FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF EVOLUTIONS
ARE POORLY HANDLED. PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MODERATE STRENGTH AND MATURING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. THIS WILL IMPACT REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
PM AND EVENING WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. LOCAL PAST EVENTS SUGGEST
AREAS OF .5 TO LOCALLY 1.5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE
UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY PM IF HAVE ENOUGH HEATING. IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION POOR TO VERY WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WITH HI-RES ECMWF AND FORCING FROM UKMET THE MOST ADEQUATE.
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS LARGE AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN SOLUTIONS
WITH A 60/40 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS AND 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING FROM MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE NEAR MIDNIGHT OR LATER WITH POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTH NEAR INFLOW REGION. THIS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MINS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SUGGESTING LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH IN SOUTH FOR
LATER SHIFTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL BUT FAR NORTH.
FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG WITH BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. RELIABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND EVENING. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESS
WILL PRECLUDE RELIABILITY OF ANY SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE OR FAR E SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 DEGREES NE TO SW WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME AREAS MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SUGGESTED TO FALL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN TIMING AN ISSUE AS MENTIONED BEFORE. BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. CLEARING LATE IN NE
SECTIONS SUGGESTED FOR MINS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER.
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME LATE PM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM IN FAR WEST TOWARD
EVENING WITH NEXT APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS SUGGESTED
WITH NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE FOR MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS ISSUE SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH
60 TO 65 DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 77 TO 83 A DECENT STARTING POINT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION TO END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...DRY TO MOSTLY DRY AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/04 WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. AFT 06Z/04 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.
TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS IOWA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON TRENDS...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE
UKMET/WRF/GFS AND RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL WATCH TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND WERE MOVING EAST. LACK OF
CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. 3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST FORCING AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
EXIST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE MODELS TOTALLY DRY. I WILL ONLY HAVE 30
POPS DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST MAINLY IN THE PLAINS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.
LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
POOR WITH SOLUTIONS POOR ABILITY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN TRANSLATE
THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERIFICATION
FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF EVOLUTIONS
ARE POORLY HANDLED. PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MODERATE STRENGTH AND MATURING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. THIS WILL IMPACT REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
PM AND EVENING WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. LOCAL PAST EVENTS SUGGEST
AREAS OF .5 TO LOCALLY 1.5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE
UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY PM IF HAVE ENOUGH HEATING. IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION POOR TO VERY WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WITH HI-RES ECMWF AND FORCING FROM UKMET THE MOST ADEQUATE.
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS LARGE AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN SOLUTIONS
WITH A 60/40 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS AND 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING FROM MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE NEAR MIDNIGHT OR LATER WITH POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTH NEAR INFLOW REGION. THIS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MINS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SUGGESTING LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH IN SOUTH FOR
LATER SHIFTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL BUT FAR NORTH.
FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG WITH BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. RELIABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND EVENING. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESS
WILL PRECLUDE RELIABILITY OF ANY SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE OR FAR E SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 DEGREES NE TO SW WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME AREAS MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SUGGESTED TO FALL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN TIMING AN ISSUE AS MENTIONED BEFORE. BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. CLEARING LATE IN NE
SECTIONS SUGGESTED FOR MINS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER.
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME LATE PM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM IN FAR WEST TOWARD
EVENING WITH NEXT APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS SUGGESTED
WITH NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE FOR MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS ISSUE SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH
60 TO 65 DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 77 TO 83 A DECENT STARTING POINT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION TO END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...DRY TO MOSTLY DRY AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/04 WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. AFT 06Z/04 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.
TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS IOWA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
STUBBORN STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM A NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST LOW.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING A 925-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-
RES CAMS TAKE AN MCS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TRACK ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z HRRR DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z. THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE
850MB WARM NOSE/MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD POP GRID GRADIENT GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES
THAT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES RANK IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE BASED ON OAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDS INCREASING FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONSIDERATIONS NEEDED FOR BOTH
MESO SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MAIN FEATURES TO
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
EDGE EAST WITH TIME. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MOVING EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK H700 WAVE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND 36 HOURS BEGINS TO DIMINISH...AS EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY ALTER THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H850 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA. MESO NMM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWARD
DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE EURO KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TREND FOR NOW. THROUGH FRIDAY THE EURO CONTINUES THE TREND
FOR MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER...WHILE THE GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT/THUNDER OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HIGH MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT H850 IS
HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z FRIDAY. GFS
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO ARE ON THE RISE...IN A RANGE OF 11KFT TO NEAR
13KFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE GFS MAY NOT BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR ITS MORE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF STORM FEATURES...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE GFS WITH ITS MORE
NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OVER IOWA IS SHOWING 4.25 TO 4.75 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE EURO HAS ONLY
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER VALUES SOUTH OF US34. THE EURO
HAS ITS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FROM NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN
MO. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS. FOR NOW HYDRO SITUATION CAN TAKE A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE REMAINS AT 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
ANY TIME...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOCAL URBAN RUNOFF EFFECTS
OR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES. GIVEN TODAYS UNCERTAINTY OF
EVOLUTION OF MESO/SYNOPTIC FEATURE INTERACTIONS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
MILD...75 TO 85 RANGE...WITH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAINY PATTERN WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN
IOWA TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1020 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
REST OF TONIGHT:
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALONG & NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS
PARKED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN
& RUSSELL COUNTIES TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. WITH SW UPPER-DECK FLOW
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN KS. TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION HAVE KEPT TORNADO #252 IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN
COUNTIES BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFFECTED COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER &
QPF...REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
UNTIL ~5AM WHEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHWEST & WESTERN KS
MAY VENTURE INTO THESE SUBDIVISIONS.
.UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS INSERT TORNADO WATCH
#252 FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.
KRC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
KRC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
ISOLD (+)TSRA DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER CNTRL KS ALG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF KMCI. THE MORE INTENSE CELL...LKLY
SVR...WAS SITUATED ~50NM W OF KGBD. THE CELL IS MAKING A RIGHT
TURN WITH THE CELL NOW MOVG SE~20KTS & ACCELERATING. A 2ND TSRA
DEVELOPED OVER I-135 ~15NM SE OF KSLN. INITIAL MOVEMENT WAS
NE~20KTS WITH THE CELL NOW MOVG N~25KTS JUST A HAILSTONE`S THROW E
OF I-135. THE CELL WILL REMAIN E OF THE KSLN TERMINAL. DUE TO
ISOLD NATURE OF CONVECTION HAVE ASSIGNED "VCTS" TO BOTH KRSL &
KSLN TIL 03Z. OTHERWISE ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH
THU EVENING & LKLY BEYOND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 20 10
NEWTON 68 88 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
ELDORADO 69 88 69 87 / 20 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 89 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 68 90 67 87 / 40 30 30 20
GREAT BEND 68 90 67 89 / 30 20 30 10
SALINA 69 90 68 88 / 40 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 69 89 68 88 / 30 20 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 10
IOLA 68 87 68 86 / 30 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
704 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS INSERT TORNADO WATCH
#252 FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.
KRC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
KRC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
ISOLD (+)TSRA DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER CNTRL KS ALG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF KMCI. THE MORE INTENSE CELL...LKLY
SVR...WAS SITUATED ~50NM W OF KGBD. THE CELL IS MAKING A RIGHT
TURN WITH THE CELL NOW MOVG SE~20KTS & ACCELERATING. A 2ND TSRA
DEVELOPED OVER I-135 ~15NM SE OF KSLN. INITIAL MOVEMENT WAS
NE~20KTS WITH THE CELL NOW MOVG N~25KTS JUST A HAILSTONE`S THROW E
OF I-135. THE CELL WILL REMAIN E OF THE KSLN TERMINAL. DUE TO
ISOLD NATURE OF CONVECTION HAVE ASSIGNED "VCTS" TO BOTH KRSL &
KSLN TIL 03Z. OTHERWISE ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH
THU EVENING & LKLY BEYOND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 20 10
NEWTON 68 88 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
ELDORADO 69 88 69 87 / 20 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 89 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 68 90 67 87 / 40 30 30 20
GREAT BEND 68 90 67 89 / 30 20 30 10
SALINA 69 90 68 88 / 40 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 69 89 68 88 / 30 20 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 10
IOLA 68 87 68 86 / 30 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND
DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT
KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE
SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE
WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRATUS REACHING BOTH TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS IS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RAPIDLY ADVANCING WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD PLACE KGLD UNDER THE THREAT
OF SOME FOG. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WHEN A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. THINK THIS AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS SOUTH
OF BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING NEBRASKA AND MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF +10C TO +13C 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND IN AN AREA WHERE AN INSTABILITY AXIS WAS LOCATED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER BASED
ON THE RAP. ALL THE NEAR TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THESE
STORMS BASED ON 07Z VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, LOCATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AND THE RAPS FORECAST OF THE WARMING AT 700MB
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GUIDE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 700S MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 14C. DESPITE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW ENOUGH SO THAT AM LEANING TOWARD NOT MENTIONING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING
DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MCS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RIDING THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA ALMOST EVERY NIGHT WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
CHANCES COME INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL
BE WARM AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTO SUNDAY, THEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 90 67 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 64 90 65 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 91 60 93 63 / 10 10 0 10
LBL 89 62 94 66 / 10 10 0 10
HYS 85 66 87 67 / 10 10 20 40
P28 85 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING NEBRASKA AND MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF +10C TO +13C 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND IN AN AREA WHERE AN INSTABILITY AXIS WAS LOCATED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER BASED
ON THE RAP. ALL THE NEAR TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THESE
STORMS BASED ON 07Z VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, LOCATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AND THE RAPS FORECAST OF THE WARMING AT 700MB
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GUIDE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 700S MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 14C. DESPITE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW ENOUGH SO THAT AM LEANING TOWARD NOT MENTIONING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING
DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 64 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 91 60 91 64 / 10 10 0 10
LBL 89 62 92 67 / 10 10 0 10
HYS 85 66 86 68 / 20 10 10 40
P28 85 67 88 70 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEW MEXICO TO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED OVER COLORADO AND WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +10C TO +13C TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND DENVER. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +18C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH
PLATTE, +23 AT AMARILLO, AND +24C AT RAPID CITY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH, AN AXIS OF H5 VORT MAXIMA ARE
PROJECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK, AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS PROVIDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
BY THE COLORADO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
CONVERGENCE. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS A RESULT OF
DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
A WARMING TREND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
A BIT. AS A RESULT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S(C)
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL
UP INTO THE 80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90F OR ABOVE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 65 88 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 60 91 64 87 / 10 0 10 10
LBL 64 92 67 90 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 68 86 68 84 / 10 10 40 30
P28 68 88 70 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
139 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OD A FEW AREAS OF FOG...MOST OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE LOW CIGS WITH A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
PRECIP IS ALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES...BUT THE
POP FOR TONIGHT WAS ABLE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DEW POINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH
ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA HAS
STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING STORMS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. FOLLOWING
THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY
YIELDS 400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER
600J/KG USING 78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T
REALLY GET PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL
TREND. WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP FIELD MIN
CIGS AT NEARLY ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THIS...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
952 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SEEM TO BE HANGING ON LONGER THEN
EXPECTED...WITH THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 850MB. TRENDED
CLOUD COVER UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT...TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF FROST. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HANGING ON AND DEWPOINTS NOT MOVING MUCH ON THE EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW...FEEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACORSS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH
LEVELS AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE
40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES
TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH,
EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER,
THE USUAL SHLETERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID
30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL
GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2
FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE
NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED
3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF
NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND
200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT
ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER
STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA
AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH
SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO
SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW
VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING
THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
PUSH SWD AND STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY DIGS SE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS
TIME. SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY/NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND PWATS
HOVER BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES. FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LESS
OF A GRIP ON THE REGION. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AFTN THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO MID- UPPER 70S SE. LOWS
WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE 60S (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES WED NIGHT).
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENING SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT
OCCURS IN THE NEAR/SHORT PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF FEATURE FAIRLY
LIGHT N/NW FLOW ALOFT SAT INTO SUN AS THE MID ATLC BECOMES
SITUATED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. TEMPS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
THROUGH CANADA THROUGH NEXT TUE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA ON
SUN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS SAT/SUN AS THE GFS IS A BIT
OF A CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY AND THINK IT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YR. DID DROP POPS TO 20% ACRS NE
ZONES. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SUN...WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FLOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SSE AND EVENTUALLY THE SSW MON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A BIT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS MON
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...THEN GO ONLY 20% OR LESS TUE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENLY IN THE 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ALREADY RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION
AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. LATEST SUITE OF
HIGH RES MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY
LATER THIS EVENING FOR 15-20 KT NE WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
SIMILAR WINDS OVERNIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXACT LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WHERE HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED...IN GENERAL SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS WHERE MOST
UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST...SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE
NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT
ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE
NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED
3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF
NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND
200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT
ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER
STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA
AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH
SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO
SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW
VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING
THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE
ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE TRAVERSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AT LEAST FEATURING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME INTERESTING WIND FEATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE RIDGETOPS...WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES BELOW THE RIDGETOPS AND A
STABLE LAYER NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. THIS SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN FOR THEM TO BE OF MUCH
CONCERN...HOWEVER EASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE
IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN EVOLVES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. THIS SLOWLY TURNS OUR
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW A BIT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
RUN INTO THE AREA...INCREASING LAPSE RATES BY FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INDICATE A WARMING TREND AS
STRATUS FINALLY GIVES WAY TO BETTER MIXING AND MORE INSOLATION AS
THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS DEFINITION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER
CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KYNG TO NEAR
KBFD...WITH DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS LINE AIDING IN SLOW SOUTHWARD
EROSION OF THE OVERCAST DECK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
SOUTHWARD ONLY A BIT BEFORE WIND DIRECTION TURNS TO THE EAST AND
REINFORCES THE STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
THERE IS LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS GUIDANCE
IS NOT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RESUMING MVFR-IFR CEILING AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. GIVEN THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND VEERING WIND...THIS
FORECAST WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC AT MANY SITES.
AS ESELY WIND INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD HEIGHT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO HIGH
MVFR LEVELS. IN SHORT...MOST TERMINALS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KFKL/ ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
WORSE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACRS THE FAR NE...WHERE ONSHORE E/NE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACRS THE FAR NE...WHERE ONSHORE E/NE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING
AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS
DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR
TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WINDS FUNNEL IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGINGS WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE ALREADY
AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ALONG
THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS AND WITH WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELDS ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE TRAVERSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AT LEAST FEATURING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME INTERESTING WIND FEATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE RIDGETOPS...WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES BELOW THE RIDGETOPS AND A
STABLE LAYER NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. THIS SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN FOR THEM TO BE OF MUCH
CONCERN...HOWEVER EASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE
IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN EVOLVES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. THIS SLOWLY TURNS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT TO RUN
INTO THE AREA...INCREASING LAPSE RATES BY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INDICATE A WARMING TREND AS
STRATUS FINALLY GIVES WAY TO BETTER MIXING AND MORE INSOLATION AS
THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS DEFINITION. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROPPING OF THE JET AXIS AND
A BETTER CHANCE THE STRONG TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR IS OCCURRING ALMOST EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTH...AND RIDGING ALOFT...WE MAY BE IN A STRATUS DECK FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. WILL OFFER AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WHICH BRINGS MOST
SITES TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING
AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS
DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR
TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS NORTH/WEST OF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO WED MORNING. ATTM HAVE CAPPED WINDS JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT COULD SEE
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT (BAY) AND 25 KT (OCEAN) TONIGHT.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED WED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW...BUT WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
940 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN INTO WCNTRL WI PRODUCING LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PER TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ALLIGNED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
H7 RH AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA THAT
FORMED JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE ON
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM
OVER REST OF EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO LK MICHIGAN REGION. TWEAKED
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER
EAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO CLIPPED BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES ON LAND JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF MQT TRIES TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. BASED ON OBSERVED PRESSURE FALLS THIS
EVENING...SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WI...SIMILAR TO WHAT 18Z NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOWED AND
NOT LIKE THE WRAPPED UP AND FARTHER NORTH RAP MODEL. THUS...LIKE
IDEA FM GOING FORECAST THAT GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER SCNTRL CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SFC LOW.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE GREATEST MOSITURE TRANSPORT IS ALLIGNED AT H85-H7.
TSRA CHANCES REST OF THE NIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA SEEM MINIMAL BASED ON
UPSTREAM LIGHTNING TRENDS AND FORECAST DEPARTURE OF STEEPER H7-H5
LAPSE RATES. DOWNPLAYED TSRA OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT DID
NOT GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY DUE TO THE STRONGER/COMPACT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING.
LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THURSDAY MORNING THINKING FOG WILL
BECOME BIGGER ISSUE OVER WEST-NORTHWEST CWA AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE DENSE FOG...BUT JUST
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE
EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE MUCH OF THE MORNING. &&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW OVER MN HAVE LED TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/WI BORDER AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST
FROM THERE OVER CENTRAL MN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER AND NEAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE SHOWERS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI ARE LIKELY NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS DRY LOW LEVELS ARE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM TRENDS SEEM WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR...WHICH SHOWS
CONVECTION TO THE W-SW SHIFTING NNE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ENTERING FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND 03Z THU...WHICH IS THE GENERAL IDEA
AMONG OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS AS WELL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CWA TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED UNDER AND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP PLACEMENT/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS (NAM/NAM-DNG/GEM-
REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP HIGH-RES WRFS) HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONVECTION...SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP ALONG THE SRN CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE THE NCENTRAL AS
WELL.
NO FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S...WARMEST S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE OVER MT 00Z FRI. NAM SHOWS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN GOES TO THE RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT.
POPS MOVE OUT FOR THU NIGHT AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR EARLY
THU NIGHT...THEN WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT THAT GETS FLATTENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z MON. A
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS OUT TUE INTO WED. HAVE POPS IN FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
WITH AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUE WITH LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER NW WISCONSIN. AS BOTH AREAS OF RAIN ARE
MOVING E TO NE...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO AFFECT KIWD THIS EVENING
WITH SHRA AND A FEW RUMBLES OF TSRA (VCTS) AT KCMX AS WELL.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE MVFR TO VFR.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MOVE IN OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN
DIMINISHES. IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE LIKELY...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN THE MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS FAVOR
UPSLOPE LIFTING. AT KSAW...EXPECT RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE
MAY BE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOOON WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF IFR CLOUDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR. COULD BE LOWER VSBY AS WELL...MORE SO ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15 KTS. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH
IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL STRETCH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FINALLY...WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND THICKNESS...SO WILL JUST HAVE
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER
THRU TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005>007-009>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE UPPER MI...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKES AND LOW
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005>007-009>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND
THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR
LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER
CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAVE BEEN TRENDS
OF BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV
AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE
FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK ARE THERE ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT
WILL LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND SUNSET AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE METRO NOW BUT NW WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DRASTICALLY DROP TO LIFR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE SOME
AREAS THAT DROP TO 1 OR 2 MILES. STILL...THINK 3-5 MILES WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMMON. CEILINGS SHOULD GO IFR MOST AREAS. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY...THEN
IMPROVE...WITGH SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP... LAST BATCH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAS JUST EXITED KMSP... AND
JUST SOME RATHER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CEILINGS BECOMING IFR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN TODAY. WNW WIND SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO DOUBT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 3
MILES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA. WIND SW 7-10 KTS BECOMING NW 7-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...MOST AREAS OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING AN ATYPICALLY
PLEASANT EARLY JUNE MORNING...IF YOU CAN DISCOUNT STUBBORN LOWER
CLOUDS HANGING ON OVER PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ERODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POPPING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY UP NEAR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH ARGUE THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY LOW...BUT HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WILL DEFER TO THE PREVIOUS ENTIRELY DRY OUTLOOK FOR TODAY
GIVEN A MULTITUDE OF FACTORS POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPS WERE TWEAKED A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT ULTIMATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT LOW CLOUDS BUT THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST SET-UP HAVING SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERS SLOWLY FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW ONE INCH OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL GREATLY LIMIT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~ 5 TO 7 DEG F BELOW
TYPICAL EARLY JUNE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS
WELL INTO THE 60S...EVEN UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF LONG
TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PERSISTING ACROSS TX/S PLAINS THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK BETWEEN UPPER
LOWS ALONG EACH COAST OF CONUS. DEEP LYR MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN
RATHER MINIMAL IN DEEP N/NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...RESULTING IN POPS
REMAINING BELOW SLGT CHC THRESHOLD. BY SAT...SOME SUBTLE CHANGES LOOK
TO EVOLVE AS GFS/EC BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MCS FORMATION IN MID MS
VALLEY...AND WITH GENERAL N/NW FLOW CONTINUING SOME POTENTIAL WOULD
EXIST FOR REMNANTS OF SUCH A COMPLEX TO MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. HENCE
FOR NOW HAVE ACCEPTED LOW POPS GENERATED BY MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
MODELS AGREE ON SUN BEING A DRIER DAY AGAIN IN WAKE OF WEAK BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MORE OF A MOISTURE CHANGE THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. IN FACT...MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER SUN
THAN SAT.
A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION SUN/MON
RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OF THIS WEEK...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THIS NEW PATTERN WILL
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. 00Z GFS SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WHILE
EC TRENDS TOWARD A MORE DEAMPLIFIED SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECENS LEAN TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE OP EC. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
ACCEPTED MODEL BLEND OF INCLUDING SOME POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
REGARDLESS OF ULTIMATE PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD EXPECT INCREASED DEEP
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RELATIVELY SEASONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AND MODEL BLEND LOOKS FINE. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 62 85 64 / 5 4 5 4
MERIDIAN 84 60 86 64 / 7 5 8 7
VICKSBURG 83 60 85 65 / 5 3 4 4
HATTIESBURG 87 63 89 66 / 10 5 8 8
NATCHEZ 84 63 85 66 / 6 3 4 3
GREENVILLE 81 61 84 65 / 5 2 4 3
GREENWOOD 80 60 83 63 / 5 3 5 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/28/EC/AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
941 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Have lowered near term PoPs to reflect current radar trends and a
more northern solution of MCS development into south
central/southeast NE per 01Z HRRR and 00Z NAM. While initial
convection over north central KS was a bit further south than
anticipated the trend has been for new development to take place
towards south central NE with smaller cells popping up towards
southeast NE. This fits with the location of h8 jet per latest VWPs
which intersects the western edge of highest PWs.
So, have pared back PoPs over the southern CWA and focused higher
PoPs over northwest MO/northeast KS. Given the above expectations
believe flash flooding remains a high concern over northwest MO and
northeast KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Very active pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms
possible as early as this afternoon and this evening, potentially
continuing off and on into the weekend. This potential for repeated
rounds of storms will continue to pose a threat for flash flooding
into the weekend.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms have already developed along
an elevated boundary over north central KS, being fed by a low-level
jet nosing into the area. This jet is forecast to weaken and pull
back a bit through the early evening, while storm motion vectors push
these storms into a more stable airmass over far eastern KS and
western MO in the wake of this morning`s MCS. Would therefore expect
this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches the KS/MO state
line with the stronger activity staying to our west for the next
several hours.
A better chance for widespread thunderstorms, possibly
evolving into another organized convective complex, will arrive
overnight when a stronger impulse will eject out of the
Rockies into our region and interact with a re-intensifying low-level
jet nosing into northeast KS. This would conceptually bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to southeast NE and northeast KS
which could roll southeast into western MO through early Thursday.
Unfortunately models are really struggling to resolve convection in
this pattern so confidence is not terribly high on this.
Nevertheless, torrential rains from Wednesday morning combined with
our anomalously wet May has left soils incapable of holding much if
any additional water. In fact 3-hour flash flood guidance is 1.5" or
lower for most areas near and west of I-35 with some spots under an
inch. Additionally, many ingredients are in place for very heavy rain
tonight including strong moisture advection/convergence over
northeast KS and northwest MO, deep moisture and warm cloud depth and
precipitable water values over 1.75" So even though there remains
some uncertainty regarding storm evolution overnight, there`s a real
risk for flash flooding if and where storms do develop. Therefore we
issued a flash flood watch through 10 AM for areas that received the
heaviest rain on Wednesday.
A lot of Thursday`s storm potential depends on the timing and
coverage of any activity that develops late tonight. If precipitation
and clouds clear early enough, there could be another round of
storms during the afternoon, some of which could be strong with
slightly stronger 700- and 500-hPa winds nosing into the area.
Conversely if storms are slow to move into the area in the morning,
southeastern portions of the area could destabilize enough for strong
storms through the early afternoon. At this time the most likely
scenario seems to be similar to today with morning convection keeping
things stable into the early evening. Of course, any storm that does
develop will have to be watched closely for additional heavy
rainfall.
This active MCS pattern looks to continue into Thursday night and
into Friday and Saturday. The orientation of the upper-level ridge
and projected LLJ would favor storms developing over northern KS,
southeast NE and IA during the daytime hours then potentially congealing
into complexes that would navigate southward into our area during the
evening and overnight. The heavy rain potential may be particularly
enhanced on Friday and Saturday when a warm front looks to become
oriented northwest to southeast from western Iowa into the Missouri
Ozarks. This would be parallel to the upper flow and overall storm
motion and could potentially lead to training storm complexes with
very heavy rain. Confidence isn`t terribly high through this period
so decided not to issue the flash flood watch beyond Thursday just
yet, though it eventually may need to be.
By Sunday and Monday the upper ridge to our south which is
responsible for this active pattern will gradually flatten out, and
could bring an end to this parade of storm complexes. However, a
lingering frontal boundary near our area and a very unstable airmass
could still spark storms either day. Enough northerly flow may spread
into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday to finally push this active
pattern to our south, but this could change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Challenging and complex forecast. Keeping an eye on scattered
convection north of KTOP. Short term models suggest this activity
could increase in coverage/intensity while spreading east as the
airmass recovers over west central MO. However, of greater interest
will be over northern KS where a larger convective complex could
evolve which would likely track similarly as this mornings MCS. So,
while overall confidence is high that convection will affect the
terminals as well as northwest and west central MO later
tonight/Thursday morning the timing is less uncertain.
By the 06z forecast time things should have become more clear and
thus provide greater detail on timing/storm intensity/ceilings/
visibilities.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
...Aviation Update 00z...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday.
Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken
this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening.
Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area.
Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.
Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
The earlier thunderstorm complex has weakened and pushed east of
the terminals this evening. Another convective cluster we are
watching is located across NE KS is moving our direction,
however, the convection has shown a weakening trend over the last
hour or two. VFR conditions are expected through the evening and
into tonight. Both SGF and BBG may experience another low
stratus/fog event toward morning. MVFR conditions are highlighted
and perhaps BBG may even flirt with IFR conditions. There may be
a shot at convection again Thursday afternoon, however, confidence
is low at this point to highlight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Frye
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart
as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa. Updated the forecast to go
dry across eastern KS into western MO region through the afternoon.
May have to watch for a few showers, maybe even a storm moving into
far northwest MO later this afternoon where mid-level isentropic
ascent will increase later today. HRRR has been persistent in
producing precipitation across these areas, although the presence of
an EML below 700 hPa may make it difficult for any showers to really
get going. Threw in a `just-in-case` 20 percent for showers up that
way later today. Otherwise, thick low-level moisture remains trapped
below a deep inversion across northern and central MO, and these
areas appear unlikely to see much sun until maybe early evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Looks like another nice day, especially if the clouds scatter out
some this afternoon. Persistent low clouds through Monday helped
suppress temperatures that greeted the work week, and the trend this
morning is more of the same as low clouds remain trapped under a
modest inversion. As a result, low clouds will once again great the
day, but is more hope as a bit more boundary layer mixing later in
the day should help the clouds break up a bit for the afternoon
hours allowing warmer conditions, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri where cloud cover kept our
highs limited to the 60s Monday. As at result expect a rather
pleasant afternoon high in the 70s. Otherwise, for this morning have
inserted a fleeting slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and extreme western Missouri. Convective activity early this
morning is noted across the high plains to our west as a result of
decent moisture transport and isentropic assent associated with a
shortwave trough exiting the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. As the shortwave transits farther northeast the moisture
transport driving the storms will shift east resulting in many short
range high-res models advertising a line of broken showers or
thunderstorms bubbling up early this morning across eastern Kansas
which will waft toward western Missouri for a couple of hours this
morning. With no strong upper level dynamics to help support the
storms or shear or instability to work with any storms that do
bubble up will not have much life to them. Have limited mention of
storms in the forecast to isolated activity along the
Kansas-Missouri border for the morning hours as a result, but may
remove even these fleeting slight chance POPs if satellite or radar
data don`t start showing any activity bubbling up over the next
couple of hours in eastern Kansas.
Looking beyond today, weather in our section of the country will be
greatly influenced by a ridge poking up into the Plains States and
the shortwave trough that spill over its apex, bringing the
potential for storms to our region. In general, models continue to
advertise a persistent weakness in the flow across the eastern CONUS
over the coming week. Coupled with a persistent ridge axis across
the Plains, and/or southern Rockies, and this sets the stage for
multiple rounds of storms starting Wednesday and lasting through the
weekend as each successive trough slips east to southeast through
the northern and central Plains. Confidence in anyone period for
storms is not the best, so have continued with a general broad brush
of Chance and Likely POPs for Wednesday through Friday. Have gone
with mostly slight-chance to no-chance POPs for the day Saturday as
a hint that it wont be stormy all the time, but confidence in any
period being storm free through the weekend is rather low. Severe
potential is a bit hard to rough out given the uncertainties of the
current crop of model solutions, but in general what rain the storms
bring us in the coming days does not look as significant as the
flooding rain we had in recent weeks. This does not mean that
flooding wont be possible, just not widespread.
Otherwise, with our section of the Nation on the nose of a ridge
axis for the next week, expect temperatures to climb up into the 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s. Starting to feel a bit like summer!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Low level moisture has been stubborn to clear out these past few
days, and current thinking is that today will be similar with
scattered to broken MVFR clouds sticking around for several more
hours. May need to watch for some scattered showers and storms toward
sunrise but confidence is not very high on this.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart
as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa. Updated the forecast to go
dry across eastern KS into western MO region through the afternoon.
May have to watch for a few showers, maybe even a storm moving into
far northwest MO later this afternoon where mid-level isentropic
ascent will increase later today. HRRR has been persistent in
producing precipitation across these areas, although the presence of
an EML below 700 hPa may make it difficult for any showers to really
get going. Threw in a `just-in-case` 20 percent for showers up that
way later today. Otherwise, thick low-level moisture remains trapped
below a deep inversion across northern and central MO, and these
areas appear unlikely to see much sun until maybe early evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Looks like another nice day, especially if the clouds scatter out
some this afternoon. Persistent low clouds through Monday helped
suppress temperatures that greeted the work week, and the trend this
morning is more of the same as low clouds remain trapped under a
modest inversion. As a result, low clouds will once again great the
day, but is more hope as a bit more boundary layer mixing later in
the day should help the clouds break up a bit for the afternoon
hours allowing warmer conditions, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri where cloud cover kept our
highs limited to the 60s Monday. As at result expect a rather
pleasant afternoon high in the 70s. Otherwise, for this morning have
inserted a fleeting slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and extreme western Missouri. Convective activity early this
morning is noted across the high plains to our west as a result of
decent moisture transport and isentropic assent associated with a
shortwave trough exiting the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. As the shortwave transits farther northeast the moisture
transport driving the storms will shift east resulting in many short
range high-res models advertising a line of broken showers or
thunderstorms bubbling up early this morning across eastern Kansas
which will waft toward western Missouri for a couple of hours this
morning. With no strong upper level dynamics to help support the
storms or shear or instability to work with any storms that do
bubble up will not have much life to them. Have limited mention of
storms in the forecast to isolated activity along the
Kansas-Missouri border for the morning hours as a result, but may
remove even these fleeting slight chance POPs if satellite or radar
data don`t start showing any activity bubbling up over the next
couple of hours in eastern Kansas.
Looking beyond today, weather in our section of the country will be
greatly influenced by a ridge poking up into the Plains States and
the shortwave trough that spill over its apex, bringing the
potential for storms to our region. In general, models continue to
advertise a persistent weakness in the flow across the eastern CONUS
over the coming week. Coupled with a persistent ridge axis across
the Plains, and/or southern Rockies, and this sets the stage for
multiple rounds of storms starting Wednesday and lasting through the
weekend as each successive trough slips east to southeast through
the northern and central Plains. Confidence in anyone period for
storms is not the best, so have continued with a general broad brush
of Chance and Likely POPs for Wednesday through Friday. Have gone
with mostly slight-chance to no-chance POPs for the day Saturday as
a hint that it wont be stormy all the time, but confidence in any
period being storm free through the weekend is rather low. Severe
potential is a bit hard to rough out given the uncertainties of the
current crop of model solutions, but in general what rain the storms
bring us in the coming days does not look as significant as the
flooding rain we had in recent weeks. This does not mean that
flooding wont be possible, just not widespread.
Otherwise, with our section of the Nation on the nose of a ridge
axis for the next week, expect temperatures to climb up into the 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s. Starting to feel a bit like summer!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MVFR clouds dominate the Kansas-Missouri border region and all our
terminals as a result this morning. Low clouds should have a bit more
success today scattering out this afternoon with the help of
southeast winds. There is a small potential that isolated
thunderstorms will bubble up across eastern Kansas and drift east
into far western Missouri during the morning hours, but the
likelihood of any of the storms is thought to be so small as to not
warrant including in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Low cloud field that has dominated our area the past 36 hours or
so is starting to clear out upstream from our region in eastern
IL. RAP cloud level flow at 1km AGL shows predominantly E-NE flow
slowly veering SE thru 18z/Tue with about a mean speed of
10-15mph. Redrew the cloud forecast along these lines, with
partial clearing occurring for much of STL Metro from late evening
on, the UIN area being on the edge of the clouds much of the
night, and COU/JEF areas likely remaining cloudy all night long,
along with much of southeast MO. Adjusted temps downward a bit
more where some clearing is now expected to occur.
Heading into Tuesday, this trend will likely continue and probably
be further complicated by a diurnal factor that will fill in a bit
during the day and recede towards sunset. It still remains to be
seen whether or not parts of southeast MO and central MO ever
clear out before Tuesday night.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Main issue in the short term is pesky stratus which has blanketed the
region the last few days and has been responsible for well below
average temperatures. The guidance is only showing minor changes
over the next 24 hours that would influence the evolution/erosion.
The upper trof axis has now pushed east of the CWA with the upper
low now in western TN and it will continue moving slowly east.
More important is the expansive and dominate surface/low level
ridge, and it will continue to have a significant influence with only
very slight veering of the lower tropospheric winds. Satellite today
shows a bit more cumuliform appearance to the cloud tops but it remains
quite thick outside of the diurnally driven stratocu on the periphery.
I have been pessimistic and held onto more clouds tonight and into
Tuesday than some of the low level RH fields might suggest. Accordingly
I lowered high temps on Tuesday a bit from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
With each successive model cycle there are new small changes with
the mass and moisture fields during the later part of the week
and into the weekend that suggest greater thunderstorm chances and
lesser heat magnitude. In general the upper ridge now centered in
the Rockies appears to never build into the MS Valley and instead
stays centered through the Plains. From Wednesday night into the
later part of the week a series of weak shortwaves are forecast to
top the ridge crest and traverse parts of the region in the NW
flow aloft. The models differ on timing and placement of these as
well as the moisture return and specifics of the WAA regime on the
backside of the retreating low level anticyclone, with the NAM the
most agressive and fastest. Then as we head into the weekend and
early next week, the northern stream will be more active with
greater digging of shortwaves out of south central Canada and
development of a deepening broad long wave trof over the eastern
U.S. centered in the Great Lakes region. Several fropas will occur
as a result with a wavy frontal boundary impacting the area
Friday-Saturday and another on Monday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Dry air advecting in from IL should lead to at least partial
clearing in the St Louis metro area and possibly also COU as has
just occurred in UIN this evening, with resulting VFR conditions
for most of the night. Mainly just scattered low level clouds is
expected on Tuesday as the low level moisture becomes more shallow
or thinner. The surface wind will be light late tonight, then
mainly e-sely on Tuesday as the surface ridge extending from the
Great Lakes region southwest into MO shifts slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling of around 3000-4000 feet
will likely scatter out late tonight, then eventually totally
clear out Tuesday night. A light surface wind late tonight will
become ely Tuesday afternoon, albeit still quite weak.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERIDAN TO
HYSHAM...THROUGH SOME STORMS MAY TRACK FROM HARLOWTON TO MILES
CITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
BE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH
BILLINGS LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC WITH
THE LIMITED CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING IN OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OUR NW AND EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. SCT-BKN STRATU
CU PERSISTS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING...THE
LATTER OF WHICH WAS EXPECTED AS OUR REGION IS UNDERGOING GRADUAL
HEIGHT RISES. COUPLE FEATURES OF INTEREST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INCLUDE THE SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT LIFTING THRU THE GREAT
BASIN...AND 70KT JET MAX COMING OUT OF AZ. EXPECT CONVECTION IN
OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE TOWARD
EVENING AS BROAD SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. PER TRACK OF GREAT BASIN
PV OUR W-NW PARTS SHOULD BE FAVORED THIS EVENING...AND PER TRACK
OF AZ ENERGY HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE BIGHORNS INTO
THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON EACH OF THESE AREAS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT MORE.
HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE AND IN THE LEE OF THE
BIGHORNS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND TRACKING ACROSS SE MT LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ISSUES THAT
MAY ARISE FROM THE ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS. THE TONGUE RIVER AT BIRNEY
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND SHOULD RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
IN RESPONSE TO TONIGHT/S PCPN. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF PCPN
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR EAST
TOMORROW PER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF WY TONIGHT.
EXPECT SFC COOLING WITH EAST WINDS AND SOME STABILIZING TOMORROW
IN THE WAKE OF ENERGY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION COMING OFF OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BUT HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR OUR CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWARD
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WEST OF BAJA. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THIS
MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING PERIOD OF CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS...NEAR AN INCH IN OUR EAST...ALONG WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOOD ISSUES AND WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THIS IN HWO.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT RISK AT THIS TIME
PRIMARILY DUE TO EPISODES OF WEAK SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US..BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. MODEL
QPF VALUES ARE PAINTING THE EASTERN ZONES WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POTENTIAL FLOOD ISSUES NEAR ON BOTH THE TONGUE AND GOOSE CREEKS.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING TAKES OVER AFTER THAT...DRYING EVERYTHING OUT.
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL START...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GRIDS WERE POPULATED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB OVER THE PAST WEEK. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST FO BILLINGS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TO IFR.
TIME AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL IN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/070 051/074 055/075 054/077 054/081 058/085 058/081
42/T 24/T 53/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/T
LVM 046/071 049/072 050/073 049/075 049/079 053/082 053/079
53/T 44/T 53/W 22/T 21/B 12/T 34/T
HDN 054/072 051/077 055/078 054/079 055/083 058/087 058/083
54/T 23/T 53/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
MLS 055/065 052/078 057/077 055/079 056/082 059/085 059/081
57/T 23/T 53/B 21/U 11/U 11/U 22/T
4BQ 054/069 052/076 056/075 054/077 055/080 058/084 058/082
77/T 23/T 63/T 31/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
BHK 049/063 050/076 055/076 051/077 051/079 054/083 056/080
37/T 23/T 64/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 22/T
SHR 049/071 049/074 052/071 050/072 050/077 051/081 053/080
74/T 45/T 54/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AREA
FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CENTER OVER FERGUS...AND PARTS OF
JUDITH BASIN...CHOTEAU...BLAINE...AND CASCADE COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE BY 06Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...KBZN COULD
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MEAGER...JUDITH BASIN...FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES. PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER BLAINE COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. NUTTER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE INDICATING STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER SATURDAY, SO HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THIS TIME AND MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK INSTABILITY PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY, BUT WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERALL, THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 69 49 72 / 50 30 20 40
CTB 44 69 42 72 / 30 30 20 10
HLN 49 72 52 75 / 70 30 30 30
BZN 45 70 48 72 / 60 20 40 40
WEY 36 66 39 68 / 30 20 20 60
DLN 43 68 47 70 / 60 30 30 40
HVR 52 69 47 76 / 50 70 20 40
LWT 50 67 49 70 / 80 60 30 40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM.
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND
REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND
OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED.
FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER
THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT
AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM.
SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION
POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY
OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE
BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING
RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR
40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE
CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE.
BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES.
SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A
BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH
SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION
SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT
WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO
BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH
TIME...AFFECTING KLNK AS EARLY AS 04-06Z...AND LIKELY NOT REACHING
KOMA/KLNK BY 11-12Z. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
11-17Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WANE BY 15-18Z. UNCERTAIN OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
417 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
ROLLED EASTWARD AND REACHED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
UNIMPRESSED WITH LATEST RUNS OF MODELS WHICH ARE NOT HANDLING THE
PRE DAWN STORMS WELL AT ALL AND MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO HAD A
HANDLE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOT SHOWING IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF WINDING
DOWN...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DECREASE TO THE EAST AND THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH TIME.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING ACR0SS THE PLAINS
BREAKING DOWN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN THE ROCKIES AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN SFC
DEEPENING IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH AND WEST THRU WESTERN NEB AND EASTERN COLORADO. IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW TO THE WEST...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AROUND H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 30KTS AND HAVE RAMPED UP WIND
SPEEDS FOR TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH WITH
DPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S. WARMER TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE
80S ARE ALSO FORECAST AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO INITIATE
IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH STORMS
REACHING OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHCS
FOR STORMS FAVORS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM. STARTING OUT WITH THE BIG PICTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...OR FIRE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT DISCOUNT EITHER OF
THESE SO WILL NEED TO KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING DURING THE DAYTIME. THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO HOWEVER SEEMS TO FIT MORE WITH THE LATEST EC
SOLUTION WHICH HAS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THEN AN MCS WORKING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP. PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SPC SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. CONCERNS INCLUDE ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION/
CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD DAMPER INSTABILITY. ALSO HAVE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WHICH MAY LOWER THE CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH. FINAL CONCERN
IS WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP...JUST WHERE THE BEST SPEED CONVERGENCE OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. THE EC SHOWS IT MORE TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE LINE WHILE
THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE WEEK GOING FOR THE WED NIGHT TIME FRAME.
PRECIP MAY LINGER AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TO TIME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES COMING ACROSS. MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER
MCS COMING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GFS HAS BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUS A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF OUR CWA BUT OTHER MODELS NOT NECESSARILY
SHOWING THIS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW
CHANGES JUST A BIT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER US A LITTLE. BUT I DONT EXPECT THE RIDGE AND
MID LEVEL WARMING TO BUILD IN STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH. THUS WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH POPS IN THE EAST DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
KEEPING THE POSSIBLE MCS TRACK JUST A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME KIND OF
POPS GOING MOST OF THE TIME. DOUBT IT WILL RAIN EVERY DAYS...BUT
TOUGH TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN MID LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WHILE THE WEST COAST LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT CANNOT BUILD/AMPLIFY DUE TO THE NORTHERN JET STAYING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING MID LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CONVECTION IS WORKING EAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EAST...JUST CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR STORMS IN WAA PATTERN AND
A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. OTHERWISE CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TOWARD
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
WHETHER CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS IFR WITH HRRR SUGGESTING BOTH
SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TO
INCREASE RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY HOLDING UP IN THE WESTERN PART OF
NEBRASKA...MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. UNWILLING TO COMPLETELY TAKE OUT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS COULD
HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING TONIGHT AS THE AXIS MOVES EAST. UPDATED
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY TO INCREASE SKY COVER
A BIT AS WELL AS DELAY THE ONSET OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER.
SREF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS INDICATE PRETTY MUCH NO CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...AND EXTREMELY LOW SHOT AT THUNDER AS
WELL. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONRAW
TENDS TO PICK UP ON SOUTH WIND GUSTS A BIT BETTER THAN
MOST...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL JET INVOLVED. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM WOULD HAVE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY SO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE TIME.
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE A BIT WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START OFF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER WRN MEXICO N/NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH/JUST EAST OF THE CWA. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO /EXTENDING INTO SD/ WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST IN
A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SPARKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING POPS
DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THAT ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
AIDED SOME WITH TIME BY AN INCREASING BUT BROAD LLJ EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL
RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE/WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. MODEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS IS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...BUT SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PLAYS
OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...LEAVING A LEAST SOME LULL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME
QUESTION WITH HOW MUCH OF ONE...AS SOME MODELS LINGERING AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MAIN SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE CWA.
AGAIN...SOME QUESTIONS WITH EXACTLY WHERE THAT FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
END UP. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME AROUND/AFTER 00Z...WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THAT SFC FRONT. FURTHER INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. AGAIN
EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
LOOKING TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN SRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING BEST CHANCES NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE
LINE. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY/DETAILS TO WORK OUT.
FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UNFORTUNATELY OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW...WITH A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST INTO TX BY FRIDAY...PUSHED
BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...BY
FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP NEAR/JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE IN THAT AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL BE
SITTING ON THE EDGE OF THAT RIDGING/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MAY END UP SLIDING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TRYING
TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL WAVES...AND RIGHT
NOW JUST CAN COMPLETELY RULE ANY PERIOD FREE OF POPS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWINGS IN HIGHS
EITHER COOL OR HOT...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPING THINGS NEAR
NORMAL...MOST DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CONVECTION IS WORKING EAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EAST...JUST CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR STORMS IN WAA PATTERN AND
A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. OTHERWISE CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TOWARD
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
WHETHER CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS IFR WITH HRRR SUGGESTING BOTH
SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TO
INCREASE RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NORTHEAST PA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT AVP AROUND 20Z...
THEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 02Z. ELSEWHERE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY
BY 00Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NW-NE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVF CONDS OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS A
SMALL SFC HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR LVLS LTR THIS
MRNG. WEAK SFC GRADIENT WILL CONT THE LGT WINDS THRU THE PD. AFT
SUNSET AND TWRD THE END OF THE PD...STABLE CONDS AND LEFTOVER LL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DVLPG IONCE AGAIN
WITH SOME IFR CONDS PSBL.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY BUT SURELY THE LL MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH TODAY
ALLOWING A GRADUAL IMPRMT IN THE CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA TNGT AS THE MOSITURE MAY
STALL...OR EVEN RETURN AS WE LOSE MIXING. SO...A GENERAL IMPRMT TO
MVFR IS XPCTD AFT SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING LATE IN THE
DAY...ESP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/RME. WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE PD.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL AS IT
SLOWLY BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...STORMS CONGREGATING SW TO NE ALONG THE
INLAND-BOUND AND DECELERATING SEA BREEZE. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS LINE AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION
HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS. WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP RETURN
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION.
THE HRRR HOWEVER WHICH IS INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE IS
NOT OVERLY ENAMORED WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REDEVELOPING. JUST
WEST OF OUR CWA THE SKY DOES HAVE A MORE CONVECTIVE/CUMULUS
APPEARANCE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THERE THEY MAY CLIP PART OF THE
AREA WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM 210 DEGREES. SHOULD THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LOWERED A BIT WEST OF THE
CURRENT LINE. SIMILARLY THE MARINE LAYER HAS LARGELY STABILIZED
AREAS EAST OF THE LINE AND POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE THERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. THE
COAST WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WHILE HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT IMPINGE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CUTOFF FROM
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE NORTH THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES WED AND THU AND
THEN FINALLY OPEN UP...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES LATE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LATER WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATE INSTABILITY LEVELS INTO THU. AT THE SAME TIME...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FOSTER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO TRAIN...WHICH OVER TIME...COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
SOME COMMUNITIES. THUS...IN ADDITION TO HIGH POPS...WILL HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAIN RISK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ON WED. THESE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN
SLIGHTLY BY THU. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT AND INTO THU AS WELL
GIVEN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 500 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
DEVELOPING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
LEAD TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THU AND THIS IS
WHEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. REMAINS OF DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
AREA THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF IT LEFT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN WITH LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY AT
TIMES. LOCATING/TIMING THESE FEATURE AT LONG RANGES IS QUITE
DIFFICULT AT BEST SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING HIGH CHC POP THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY MAY NOT JUST BE DIURNAL IN NATURE GIVEN
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT. A SECOND FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IT TOO IS LIKELY TO STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL TEND TO KEEP
HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BUT HOLD LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL SEND US A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR BY
EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE
ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL
FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA
BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS
FROM THIS TREND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND NW BEFORE
STALLING AND THEN WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED FRI AND SAT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WED MORNING WILL SETTLE ON SE DURING THE DAY
WED. SE TO S WINDS WED EVE WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THU MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
BUT UP TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER WED AND WED EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FT THROUGHOUT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AT TIMES...WITH CONVECTION AND
SEA BREEZE BEING THE MOST LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH SUN WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
STORMS CONGREGATING SW TO NE ALONG THE INLAND-BOUND AND DECELERATING
SEA BREEZE. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
THIS LINE AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS. WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP RETURN SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION. THE HRRR HOWEVER WHICH IS
INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE IS NOT OVERLY ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA OF STORMS REDEVELOPING. JUST WEST OF OUR CWA THE SKY DOES HAVE
A MORE CONVECTIVE/CUMULUS APPEARANCE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THERE
THEY MAY CLIP PART OF THE AREA WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM 210
DEGREES. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LOWERED A
BIT WEST OF THE CURRENT LINE. SIMILARLY THE MARINE LAYER HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED AREAS EAST OF THE LINE AND POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE THERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. THE
COAST WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WHILE HEIGHT FALLS
AND COOLING ALOFT IMPINGE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN A BIT AS IT
REACHES OVERHEAD BY FRI MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC TROUGH OR REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW AND ALONG SEA
BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND ANY OTHER LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH DRIVING THE SHWRS/TSTMS LENDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
MAY BE TOUGH TO TIME EXACT PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED
BY SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LENDING TO A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER SPOTS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST WITH DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN
TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. TEMPS MAY NOT
EVEN REACH 80 DURING THE DAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER AS CUTOFF MOVES
CLOSER OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW SHOULD OPEN UP TO TROUGH AS IT
WEAKENS SLOWLY REACHING OVERHEAD FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SHIFT OFF
SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS IT BEGINS TO SLIP OFF THE COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND FROM THE NORTH BUT LOOKS
LIKE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND NEARBY AS IT
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. A DEEPER NW FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLOW FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE LOCALIZED FOR THE MOST
PART WITH SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT EAST MON INTO
TUES WITH INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT.
AFTER A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM START TO THE LONG TERM...EXPECT TEMPS
TO WARM IN INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS AS CUT OFF LOW
DEPARTS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL SEND US A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR BY
EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO
GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD
TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS FROM THIS TREND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHIFTS EAST
REACHING THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY FRI MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE REFLECTION TO LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS.
LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WED MORNING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
EVEN AND THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE TO N-NW BY END OF PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING A LINGERING FRONT TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRI MORNING TO
SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. BY
SATURDAY WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO THE SE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND FRONT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAVE COMBINED TO BRING WET
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR DAYS...MANY INDICATIONS POINTING TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE REASONS
FOR THIS. FIRST...WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS POINT TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF 700 MB WHICH STILL SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN FIVE. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER AS
OPPOSED TO SATURATED TO THE SURFACE WHICH WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS. SECOND...PRE EXISTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD...AND THUS WILL PUSH THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...FURTHER EAST. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY VERY CLEAR IN THE OBSERVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST AND UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX WITH
WET DOWNBURSTS BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. RAP FORECAST REALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS BUT SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO CERTAINLY
THINK IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO MID 80S EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN THE EAST WITH NOT MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 1. LOWS IN THE LOW
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE CHANGES LITTLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY LEAD TO
NUISANCE FLOODING OF STREETS/LOW LYING AREAS. SINCE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND LIMITED IN SCOPE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. NEAR SFC NELY FLOW BEHIND THE
SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LOW
LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 03Z-05Z AS ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES USUAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS LOWER 60S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC STILL ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MODERATING
AIRMASS SOME. HOWEVER... WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. THE MID LEVEL LOW ON
THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS)... WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... OVERALL DEEP
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST. THUS... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME... WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING
AIRMASS... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA (AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST ECWMF... WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MORE) SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE
TO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT.
THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR
NORMAL.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL
SMALL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT COULD HELP GENERATE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES RECOVER
AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER TOWARDS
EVENING WITH THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUST INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS ON CEILING AND VISIBILITY. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AFTER 6Z OR SO AND THEN A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CHANCE THAT THESE COULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT MVFR
LEVELS IF NOT LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ADVECTING OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAVE COMBINED TO BRING WET
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR DAYS...MANY INDICATIONS POINTING TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE REASONS
FOR THIS. FIRST...WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS POINT TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF 700 MB WHICH STILL SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN FIVE. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER AS
OPPOSED TO SATURATED TO THE SURFACE WHICH WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS. SECOND...PRE EXISTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD...AND THUS WILL PUSH THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...FURTHER EAST. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY VERY CLEAR IN THE OBSERVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST AND UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX WITH
WET DOWNBURSTS BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. RAP FORECAST REALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS BUT SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO CERTAINLY
THINK IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO MID 80S EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN THE EAST WITH NOT MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 1. LOWS IN THE LOW
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE CHANGES LITTLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY LEAD TO
NUISANCE FLOODING OF STREETS/LOW LYING AREAS. SINCE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND LIMITED IN SCOPE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. NEAR SFC NELY FLOW BEHIND THE
SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LOW
LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 03Z-05Z AS ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES USUAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS LOWER 60S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC STILL ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MODERATING
AIRMASS SOME. HOWEVER... WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. THE MID LEVEL LOW ON
THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS)... WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... OVERALL DEEP
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST. THUS... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME... WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING
AIRMASS... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA (AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST ECWMF... WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MORE) SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE
TO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT.
THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR
NORMAL.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AS A PERTURBATION ALOFT
LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. HEATING OF THE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC. THIS
BATCH OF CONVECTION MAY IMPACT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SFC
COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
AID TO MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN ITS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CHARACTER. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SLIGHTLY DRIER. THIS WILL LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BOTH MORNINGS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL UTILIZE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH CAM GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. ACTUAL TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE FEATURES...AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. INDIVIDUAL CAMS
AND CAM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT SAID...A GENERAL IDEA DOES EMERGE FROM ALL OF
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE ND WILL EACH SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION TODAY...DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND...SETTING
UP A SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION (WHICH WILL BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL). ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND HEATING
UNCERTAIN...MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING...THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL (SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS) WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SVR POTENTIAL HINGES ON TIMING OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT AND WHEREVER THIS LIKELY TRIGGER IS BY MID-AFTERNOON. CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
(USING UPDRAFT HELICITY). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS INTENSE STORMS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
STILL QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF CONVECTION THRU THE PD
AND CIGS. HRRR CIG FCST SHOWS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE RAIN AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT OVERALL VFR. SOME MODEL MOS STATISTICS
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NR 12Z TUES AND AFTERWARDS.
FOR NOW KEPT IT MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND LATEST HRRR HAS AN OK HANDLE ON IT AND CONTINUES ITS MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD GRAND FORKS AND ECNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AREA BISMARCK TO DICKINSON AND EVIDENCE OF
TSTM AREA DEVELOPING WESTWARD MEETING UP WITH CONVECTION COMING
FROM MONTANA. OVERALL SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE IDEA OF SOME PRECIP
IN ECNTRL ND PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THEN NEW ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST-
NORTHEAST THRU NRN ND TUESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY. SEEMS REASONABLE AND
POPS INHERITED REFLECT THAT TREND WITH HIGHEST POPS NW FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME UPPER JET ENERGY
FEEDING INTO IT. NO REAL SFC BOUNDARY BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING BETWEEN ESTEVAN AND BRANDON IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE ARE MOVING DUE EAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE FA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OUT OVER EASTERN MT WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ATTM THO. DESPITE THIS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WEST/NW FA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETTING THE STAGE...THIS
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT BREAK IT OUT
ANYWHERE TUE AND HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN GUIDANCE HIGHS AS A
RESULT. FROM 12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NORTHWEST SD MOVING TO MOBRIDGE SD...NOT A FAST MOVER BY ANY
MEANS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS KEEP DECENT
850MB FLOW OVER EASTERN SD UP INTO NW MN IMPINGING ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF HEAVIER
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER JET HOLDS BACK CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW. EXPECT BETTER HEATING AND CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC LOW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THINK TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BACK NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND IF IT EXPANDS INTO THIS FA WILL
BE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THESE INITIAL TSTMS
SPREAD EAST-NE. SPC HAS REMOVED THE ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
POSSIBLY DUE TO NOT ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. EITHER WAY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS WEST OF A LINE FROM
KBWP-KFAR-KGFK-KDVL. THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON WED. THEN A
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN AND WI. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...BUT
MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BLENDED
SOLUTION GIVES TOM LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN SOME LOWER ONES FOR MONDAY AS THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW TEENS C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
STILL QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF CONVECTION THRU THE PD
AND CIGS. HRRR CIG FCST SHOWS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE RAIN AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT OVERALL VFR. SOME MODEL MOS STATISTICS
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NR 12Z TUES AND AFTERWARDS.
FOR NOW KEPT IT MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
251 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER LARGE INVERSION AS H5 LOW
SWINGS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. OBVIOUSLY THE
FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK TODAY. THE
RAP AND HRRR GRADUALLY BEGIN THE BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE H9 MOISTURE THE LONGEST IN THE NW. THE
MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NW. THE 12Z
NAM JUST CAME IN AND IT NOW LINGERS THE H9 MOISTURE ALL DAY. THE
UPDATE WAS PUT OUT BEFORE THE 12Z NAM CAME IN...SO IT WAS BASED ON
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP. WENT
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST...LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR/RAP SOLUTION...WITH A LITTLE BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM. THIS
PRODUCED A MUCH CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...BACKED OFF ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THIS PULLED AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME
ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE LINGERED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO WORK SOUTH
FROM LAKE ERIE. CIGS IN CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD GO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS AT THE OTHER TAFS MVFR.
THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE LOCATION OF THE H9 MOISTURE HANDLED
THE BEST...SO FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION. KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE, AFTER SUNSET SLOWLY
LOWERED THE CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG.
HAVE THE FOG AND CIGS LIFTING GRADUALLY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT NOT GOING VFR UNTIL AFT 18Z IN THE EXTENDED CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER LARGE INVERSION AS H5 LOW
SWINGS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. OBVIOUSLY THE
FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK TODAY. THE
RAP AND HRRR GRADUALLY BEGIN THE BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE H9 MOISTURE THE LONGEST IN THE NW. THE
MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NW. THE 12Z
NAM JUST CAME IN AND IT NOW LINGERS THE H9 MOISTURE ALL DAY. THE
UPDATE WAS PUT OUT BEFORE THE 12Z NAM CAME IN...SO IT WAS BASED ON
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP. WENT
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST...LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR/RAP SOLUTION...WITH A LITTLE BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM. THIS
PRODUCED A MUCH CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...BACKED OFF ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THIS PULLED AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME
ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACRS TN VLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST HAS KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR CATEGORY ACRS ALL BUT KDAY.
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE THRU THE MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS
AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
550 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NW ARKANSAS RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITY AT FYV
THIS MORNING...AT LEAST TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO BUILD BACK INTO NW ARKANSAS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ABOVE VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH FOG AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z ACROSS NW ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT
INCLUSION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. A
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. A
DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS NORTH OF GOODLAND KS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON
PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE AND
ADJUST THE POPS AS NEEDED.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SO EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURS AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...GIVING OUR AREA TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE WET MAY.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
237 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. A
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. A
DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS NORTH OF GOODLAND KS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON
PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE AND
ADJUST THE POPS AS NEEDED.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SO EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURS AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...GIVING OUR AREA TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE WET MAY.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 68 85 70 / 20 10 10 10
FSM 82 65 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 67 84 69 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 82 66 85 68 / 20 10 10 10
FYV 77 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 77 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 82 65 84 67 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 80 65 86 67 / 20 10 10 10
F10 82 66 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 83 65 85 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER
CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE SOUTHERN LAURELS UP INTO THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHEASTWARD...UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE RAP SHOW THIS SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE EVENING. SOME CLEARING HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NW...BUT IMPROVEMENT OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE GRADUAL AT BEST. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PRETTY STEADY RAIN IN STORE INTO THE EVENING FOR ABOUT THE SERN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN LINGERING IN A NARROW ZONE OVER THE MD
BORDER COUNTIES WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE IMPROVING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
HOWEVER COULD SEE SHOWERS LINGER EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE DRY PUSH WILL BE LESS THAN VIGOROUS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S JUST TO THE EAST OF
KBFD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY. THE
SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER AIR
IS WORKING INTO NRN PA AND BRADFORD HAS RESPONDED WITH LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS GOING VFR.
A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LIKELY HOLD LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED
TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER
CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE SOUTHERN LAURELS UP INTO THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHEASTWARD...UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
THE RAP SHOWS THIS SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL AT BEST. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY STEADY RAIN IN STORE INTO
THE EVENING FOR ABOUT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER AIR
MAY WORK INTO NRN PA AND ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT AT BFD. A
DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NRN PA AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AT BFD. A
DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN
WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING
AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD
LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
545 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE .THEN
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN
WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING
AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD
LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST BY THIS EVENING HEADING EAST
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG LLJ...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR...EXPECT THE
MODELS TO BE ACCURATE AND INCREASED CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STILL HAVE
MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
UP TO 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG. DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE/FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP.
WITH ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY. SHAVED OFF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT THEM BACK MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...AND PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
THE LOW THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY INITIALLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS INFLUENCE THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPS THE
FORECAST LOADED WITH CHANCE POPS. PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE ACTION
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL TRACK
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...IMPACTING THE KMBG AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z TO 15Z...AND THE KABR/KATY REGION BETWEEN 15Z
AND 21Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.
BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 94 61 93 / 0 10 0 10
TULIA 63 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 95 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 65 93 65 92 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 63 96 63 94 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 65 96 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across West
Central Texas this afternoon, but confidence remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the TAF package. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions into tomorrow morning, with MVFR stratus
possible at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT during the early morning hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy stratus has developed across the Hill Country. Although VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail, brief MVFR are possible early
this morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across West Central Texas today,
but confidence remains low, so any mention of thunder was left
out of the TAF package. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through
this evening, with stratus possible at mainly KSOA, KBBD and KJCT
early Wednesday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 90 69 90 68 / 5 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 68 93 69 93 69 / 5 0 0 0 0
Junction 68 91 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
602 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy stratus has developed across the Hill Country. Although VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail, brief MVFR are possible early
this morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across West Central Texas today,
but confidence remains low, so any mention of thunder was left
out of the TAF package. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through
this evening, with stratus possible at mainly KSOA, KBBD and KJCT
early Wednesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 68 90 69 90 / 20 5 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 68 93 69 93 / 20 5 0 0 0
Junction 89 68 91 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 68 90 69 90 / 20 5 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 68 93 69 93 / 20 5 0 0 0
Junction 89 68 91 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL LINGER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL
KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND STORMS GOING INTO MIDDLE OR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MTNS OF NE TN THIS MORNING...WITH BEST THETA-E RIDGING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NWD
FROM SOUTH OF THE TRIAD IN NC TO THE ERN CWA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
FAVORING A SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT THINK ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THIS TAKES PLACE...SO MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE CWA IS LOW...THOUGH
THE CMC AND HRRR DO SHOW SOME BREAKS RETURNING TO THE MTNS. WITH
LIMITED SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE...CUT
BACK WORDING OF THUNDER TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF FRONT TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD COVER...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER WET ONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
COMPLICATED IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION TODAY AND
WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH PRECIP FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CULPRITS REMAIN
WITH A CUTOFF 5H LOW JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEP PWATS TO GET BANDS OF CONVECTION GOING THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY SHRA FADES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SW LATER AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS OVER A BIT MORE IN BACKDOOR
FASHION UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTED BY BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS OUT WEST...AND
WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EAST WHERE WILL SLOWLY GET
TRAJECTORIES SWITCHING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT UNDER
THE 85H THETA-E GRADIENT LATER ON. BEST INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH WEAK
ALSO PROGGED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO MERGE ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING PER LATEST ENSEMBLES. THUS APPEARS BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH/EAST WITH THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SE-SW BUT GRADUALLY FILLING IN ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE LATE. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPING POPS FROM CHANCE AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL STAY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN A MILD START BUT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND IFFY TIMING OF ONSET OF THE DEVELOPING WEAK WEDGE
LATER TODAY. MOS VALUES HAVE COOLED QUITE A BIT BUT LIKELY ARE TOO
COOL PARTS OF THE WEST/SOUTH WHERE THINK ANY COOL ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIKELY ENOUGH EARLY CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO LIMIT
RISES TO SOME DEGREE. THUS TRENDED WITH THE WARMER MAV WHICH
STILL KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IF CLOUDS LOWER
SOONER.
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET PINNED IN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE VA BLUE
RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE RUNNING IN
FROM THE SE ALONG THE STALLED 85H FRONT AND UNDER THE 5H LOW. THIS
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE GIVEN DEEP SATURATION AND AN
INVERSION ALOFT. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ELEVATED CONVECTION PER
COOLNESS ALOFT AND PROGGED LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 5H LOW. THIS
WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES PENDING THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
SINCE COVERAGE COULD AGAIN BE MORE SCATTERED NATURE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVERALL FFG RATHER HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. OTRW KEEPING PERSISTENT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN A SWATH ROUGHLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
IN VA TONIGHT AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER THIS MORNING SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND TRAVELS EASTWARD TO THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...EXPECT DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN COOL WEDGE. LOW LEVEL
STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE
RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHAPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IS GOING TO MEANDER TOWARD VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND MORE CONVECTION WEST OF HLX-MWK.
THE MTNS OF SE WV WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIP IF ANY UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO BRING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THINK THE TAF SITES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BACK TO IFR/MVFR AND AT
TIMES LIFR IN THE MTNS/ROANOKE WITH WEDGE SETTING UP. MODELS KEEP
IT WET THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. VSBYS AS WELL WILL COME DOWN TO IFR/MVFR
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FOG TONIGHT/WED
MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION
TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING WEDGE OF COOL AIR
WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND STORMS GOING INTO
MIDDLE OR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MTNS OF NE TN THIS MORNING...WITH BEST THETA-E RIDGING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NWD
FROM SOUTH OF THE TRIAD IN NC TO THE ERN CWA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
FAVORING A SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT THINK ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THIS TAKES PLACE...SO MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE CWA IS LOW...THOUGH
THE CMC AND HRRR DO SHOW SOME BREAKS RETURNING TO THE MTNS. WITH
LIMITED SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE...CUT
BACK WORDING OF THUNDER TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF FRONT TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD COVER...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER WET ONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
COMPLICATED IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION TODAY AND
WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH PRECIP FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CULPRITS REMAIN
WITH A CUTOFF 5H LOW JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEP PWATS TO GET BANDS OF CONVECTION GOING THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY SHRA FADES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SW LATER AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS OVER A BIT MORE IN BACKDOOR
FASHION UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTED BY BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS OUT WEST...AND
WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EAST WHERE WILL SLOWLY GET
TRAJECTORIES SWITCHING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT UNDER
THE 85H THETA-E GRADIENT LATER ON. BEST INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH WEAK
ALSO PROGGED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO MERGE ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING PER LATEST ENSEMBLES. THUS APPEARS BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH/EAST WITH THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SE-SW BUT GRADUALLY FILLING IN ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE LATE. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPING POPS FROM CHANCE AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL STAY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN A MILD START BUT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND IFFY TIMING OF ONSET OF THE DEVELOPING WEAK WEDGE
LATER TODAY. MOS VALUES HAVE COOLED QUITE A BIT BUT LIKELY ARE TOO
COOL PARTS OF THE WEST/SOUTH WHERE THINK ANY COOL ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIKELY ENOUGH EARLY CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO LIMIT
RISES TO SOME DEGREE. THUS TRENDED WITH THE WARMER MAV WHICH
STILL KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IF CLOUDS LOWER
SOONER.
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET PINNED IN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE VA BLUE
RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE RUNNING IN
FROM THE SE ALONG THE STALLED 85H FRONT AND UNDER THE 5H LOW. THIS
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE GIVEN DEEP SATURATION AND AN
INVERSION ALOFT. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ELEVATED CONVECTION PER
COOLNESS ALOFT AND PROGGED LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 5H LOW. THIS
WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES PENDING THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
SINCE COVERAGE COULD AGAIN BE MORE SCATTERED NATURE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVERALL FFG RATHER HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. OTRW KEEPING PERSISTENT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN A SWATH ROUGHLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
IN VA TONIGHT AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER THIS MORNING SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND TRAVELS EASTWARD TO THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...EXPECT DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN COOL WEDGE. LOW LEVEL
STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE
RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHAPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM IFR/LIFR IN FOG IN SPOTS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED ON
MONDAY...TO MVFR/IFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE FOG...TO VFR IN MID
DECK. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE STARTING
TO LIFT BACK NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING RESULTING IN BANDS OF SHOWERS...AND
LIKELY MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ONCE ANY FOG FADES BY MID
MORNING.
CLOUDINESS INCLUDING MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON PER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPCLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING. FRONT
BOWING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A LINGERING
CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER IFR TYPE
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL SEE NE FLOW KICK IN. THIS MAY
ALSO TEND TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FRONT
PIVOTS SW UNDER THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD
OF MVFR IN CONVECTION AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
MORE SHRA AND ONLY A VCTS MENTION GIVEN LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY.
WEDGE DEEPENS TONIGHT WHILE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SE OVER THE COOL
POOL MAKING FOR A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE COMBO LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND ADDED
SHRA/RA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION
TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE WHILE GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. OBS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK ENE
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS
THE MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/WRF/NMM...AND ALSO THE GFS ALL
TRACK THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THESE MODELS TAKE THE AREA OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ELEVATED CAPES WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 400
J/KG...PWATS WILL REACH UP TO 1.70 INCHES AND FORCING WILL BE DECENT
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CREATE SWATHS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF QPF...AND THIS
LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE.
AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRDS SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDELY
SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHER
THAN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
CLEAR OUT FIRST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS OTHER AREAS
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TO THE LOWER
70S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO TRIM BACK NOTABLY ON POPS AS IT APPEARS NOW THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD...WITH THE NAM NOT
THAT FAR OFF EXCEPT THAT IT HUNG ONTO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
PRECIPTATION WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GENERALLY IGNORED THE
NAM QPF THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CAN EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 70S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST EARLY SUNDAY AS
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
MAXIMUM QPF...ONE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN-UPPER MICHIGAN
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER OVER
IOWA...NEAR ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANING THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS FAR OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR THE DETAILS TO
EMERGE MORE CLEARLY. CURRENT TIMIMG WOULD SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
THE DAY.
THEN AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTUBANCE...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TOWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...BRINIGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN
ELUSIVE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 35 KNOTS AT 500 AGL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
RDM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
639 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE WHILE GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. OBS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK ENE
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS
THE MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/WRF/NMM...AND ALSO THE GFS ALL
TRACK THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THESE MODELS TAKE THE AREA OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ELEVATED CAPES WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 400
J/KG...PWATS WILL REACH UP TO 1.70 INCHES AND FORCING WILL BE DECENT
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CREATE SWATHS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF QPF...AND THIS
LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE.
AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRDS SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDELY
SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHER
THAN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
CLEAR OUT FIRST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS OTHER AREAS
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TO THE LOWER
70S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO TRIM BACK NOTABLY ON POPS AS IT APPEARS NOW THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD...WITH THE NAM NOT
THAT FAR OFF EXCEPT THAT IT HUNG ONTO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
PRECIPTATION WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GENERALLY IGNORED THE
NAM QPF THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CAN EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 70S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST EARLY SUNDAY AS
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
MAXIMUM QPF...ONE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN-UPPER MICHIGAN
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER OVER
IOWA...NEAR ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANING THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS FAR OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR THE DETAILS TO
EMERGE MORE CLEARLY. CURRENT TIMIMG WOULD SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
THE DAY.
THEN AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTUBANCE...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TOWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...BRINIGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN
ELUSIVE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS AT 500 AGL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
END THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
RDM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS
HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN.
THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING
MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I-
70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF.
NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING.
IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG
JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL
AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD
THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE
03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING
TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP
MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z
CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP
AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW
THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE
STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND
THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO.
TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
03.2330Z RADAR SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS FROM KEAU TO KCCY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
25 KTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE AFTER IT PASSES KLSE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERHAPS A
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS ND/NORTHERN MN
OOZE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS A
BIT UNCERTAIN BUT WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW...SHOWING
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AFTER SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
HIGH...AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ARE HANGING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING. OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE SO
FAR TODAY. AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY TO
PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. OTHER THAN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.
WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOISTURE INVADE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT THE COLUMN MOISTENS
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MIDDAY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.
EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK IS
HOW LONG IT TAKES A COLD FRONT TO TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND THUS HOW LONG IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS THIS RUN REGARDING
THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS MAINTAIN A TROUGH FEATURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSER
INSPECTION OF THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT SUSPICIOUS...WITH THE
MODEL APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHEN NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL SIDE
WITH THE CONSENSUS IN THIS INSTANCE IN TRACKING THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER
ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DRY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE
COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AGAIN BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE AND
TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH FASTER THAN THE MORE DELIBERATE GFS
SOLUTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE
FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT TOO QUICK THIS RUN. A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THURSDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......PK
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AIDED IN PART BY
SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROF THAT WILL EDGE NORTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS SFC TROF MAY
FOCUS SOME TSTRM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECENT
CAPES LURKING VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST PART OF THE CWA IF NOT JUST A
LITTLE INSIDE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS A MINOR UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
A COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDS. EXPECT TO
SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS WEDS AND THIS COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
DAY. CAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT IT MAY BE A RELATIVELY LATE SHOW FOR STORMS WITH THE NEXT
UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING MORE TOWARDS WEDS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MORE LIKELY WITH BETTER SHEAR EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY CONTINUING OVER THE PLAINS WEDS EVENING.
NO BIG CHANGES SEEN FOR THURSDAY WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE RETREATING SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS MAY
HINDER IT SOME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA
BY SUNDAY AND WEAKENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TO START...LOOKING AT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH
SBCAPES PROGGED BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO WYOMING FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH INCREASED
VEERING FLOW PROGGED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. LOOKING
AT A BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AS A
RESULT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD BE MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE ROCKIES. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...AND A FAIR NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING 80F. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
FOG/STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN TAFS AT
KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN MORE WITH
THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS TIMEFRAME BY
THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
NO CONCERNS SEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH FUELS PRETTY MUCH IN
GREENUP AND WEATHER FACTORS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. WARM TODAY
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FT LARAMIE AND THE LOWER N PLATTE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE ENTIRELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE INCREASING SNOW
MELT OVER THE MTNS WILL RAISE THE UPPER N PLATTE DURING THE WEEK
BUT NOT YET EXPECTED TO ATTAIN FLOOD STAGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ANY EFFECTS FROM RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVIER RAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS MOST WILL LIKELY BE
GONE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH RAIN FALLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WE MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM LATE
TONIGHT FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON CUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SHEAR
AND MINIMAL CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LEADING TO PULSE TYPE
STORMS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CAPE VALUES WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE
NAM OR GFS WERE INDICATED ON THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. WHILE A RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY WEEK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LONG LIVED SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY MAKING FOR LESSER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE GENERATING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE CORRECT GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
ADD TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVES COULD EASILY
POP OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER BUT CAPE
VALUES WILL BE LOWER TUESDAY...THUS AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS DEVELOP.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THEREFORE SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIKELY SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAM SHOWS A COLD FRONT DIVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO COLD
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON THE FRONT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...CAPPING OFF THE LOW LEVELS AND
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND A RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT MUCH CHANGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. ANY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GRANTED...IT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN MAY...BUT THAT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT
EVEN THEN...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN ADDITION TO DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW LI/S. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA TO
GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 EACH DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
FOG/STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN TAFS AT
KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN MORE WITH
THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS TIMEFRAME BY
THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEK. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE INCREASES IN RIVER LEVELS WITH VERY SHORT
NOTICE A GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH RIVER
LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE VERY RAPID
SNOW MELT AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SLOW
MOVING OR STATIONARY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
129 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND TO UPDATE POPS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5
AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL
BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN
SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE
OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z
NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF
ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW
LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS
ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END
OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND
PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN
3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON
IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL JET HAS MANAGED TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. PER COORD WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5
AM...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST CO PORTION OF THIS WATCH WILL
BE CANCEL-ABLE BY 1 TO 2 AM AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NW KS OVERNIGHT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY. IN
SPITE OF THE CAPE...SEEMS BEST FORCING HAS STAYED TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S TO HELP
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE
OPTED TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH. LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND EVEN THE 00Z
NAM12 ARE INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
INITIAL HOURS OF THESE MODELS AREN`T VERIFYING WELL...WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. CERTAINLY A LOT OF
ELEVATED CAPE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
SE PLAINS IS CAPPED...AND WITHOUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT
WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE...IT SEEMS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. LOW
LEVEL JET APPEARS TO CRANK UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UT/NW CO WITH DRYING EVIDENT IN WV PICS
ACROSS ERN UT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END
OF THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WITH IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AND
PLAY IT BY EAR. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED JUN
3 2015
PLENTY OF POTENTIAL OUT THERE...JUST SEEM TO BE MISSING THE
TRIGGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SANGRES AND WET MTS TO BE THE INITIATOR OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO NOW KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTION NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EAST OF KLHX LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE FORCED DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN OUT THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW...BUT WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW AND MAY BLEND TO CONSSHORT TO CAPTURE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SRN CO BORDER. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING EL PASO COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY PUSHED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH 70S TO TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A STORM SHOULD MOVE YOUR WAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL. ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES TOO DRY IN
DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY POP...AND IF THEY DO...THE COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SPREADING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WARM
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EL PASO COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE APPEARS TO BE. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO LIKELY BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING MOST OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY GOING TO MOISTEN UP ALOFT AS
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOISTURE GET INGESTED INTO
THE MID LVL SW FLOW.
FRIDAY...
CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE OVERS CALIF THIS DAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION WHILE MOIST SE UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM TC ANDRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE GETTING WET OVER THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCTD VALUES MOST OTHER AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY. SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH NAM SHOWING 1500-2000 CAPE
WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. REASON FOR THIS IS GFS BRING WARM
FRONT NWD TO THE PALMER DVD SCOURING OUT THE BETTER LLVL MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS WARM FRONT OVER THE
RATON MESA. FOR NOW...GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THIS
SPRING...BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN A MOISTER PATTERN AND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE WE WILL SEE ORGANIZED TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
SATURDAY...
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA THIS DAY. LLVL FLOW GOES SOUTHERLY AS PER
ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THREAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC TC`S CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. PRECIP
ON PLAINS MAY BE A BIT LESS THIS DAY BUT HI POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVER THE MTNS. SVR STORMS ON THE PLAINS NOT LIKELY THIS DAY AS IT
STANDS NOW AS SHEAR MARGINAL.
SUNDAY...
TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE MAY START TO COME INTO PLAY AS NHC HAS THIS
STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BAJA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AND OUR LLVL
FLOW WILL GO MOIST UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN. SHEARED 500 MB CIRC WILL BE
OVER NV/UT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVERHEAD. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY SEE STRONG CONVECTION THIS DAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ALL REGIONS. HAVE DRAWN UP LIKELY/SCTD POPS FCST AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY...
FLOWS GOES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT THIS DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT
OF TC BLANCA`S MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF US. WITH THE COOL POOL OF
THE REMNANT 500 MB CIRC OVER US...STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE...THREAT OF SVR WX WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON THE PLAINS. WE
STILL COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.
TUES...WED...
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON NW COMP SO TROPICAL MSTR WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
THESE DATES. HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND LLVL UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE SO CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KCOS LATE TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE FLOW AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT KPUB...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...THOUGH COULD BORDER ON
IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BREAK AT TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH KCOS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS. COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT DROP
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CT/WESTERN MA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13
SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/BERKSHIRES...AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN TACONICS A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS COULD EVEN EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS WELL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
INCREASES YIELDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.
ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 50S...COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT ASSUMING LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-90 NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT. THIS WILL TEND TO
KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER...MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD BRINGING CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AS THE
MOISTENING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/PVS ECMWF) FOR THIS PERIOD. HWVR THE NORTHWARD
SPREAD OF MOISTURE IS GREATER BY FRIDAY THAN PVS RUNS HAD IT.
FRIDAY BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RH OVER THE RGN
FROM THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND AN INCRG
SE LLVL FLOW. MEANWHILE TO THE N...A CDFNT ONLY REACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VLY BY 00UTC SAT. AT 500 HPA A TROF MOVING THRU N QB/LAB
SHARPENS FRI...WHILE THE CUTOFF OVER NC EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLC.
THE N TROF IS SUF TO PUSH THE CDFNT THRU THE FCA FRI NT. THIS
FRONTAL TIMING IS SLOWER THAN PVS RUNS...BUT UNTIL FRI EVNG THE
FCA IS SANDWICHED BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR
FRI.
INSPITE OF ALL THE LLVL MOISTURE THE DAY STARTS WITH MUCH OF THAT
SHIFTS EAST IN THE MRNG. THE STRONG JUNE SUN MIXES SOME THE REST
OUT. MOST STAT GUID IS SUG BKN CLOUD COVER AND SOME SUNSHINE FRI.
CFP WILL REACH NW CORNER OF FCA DURING FRI EVNG.
AT THE TIME OF CFP DURING FRI EVNG SB CAPES N & W OF ALB REACH
200-600 J/KG ON THE GFS AND 500-1000 J/KG ON THE USUALLY OVER
JUICED NAM. MEANWHILE DCAPE IN NW FCA REACH 600-800 FRI AFTN.
ALSO 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 15-20 KTS SOUTH AND 20 TO 30 KTS N FRI EVNG.
WHILE THE SVR THREAT IS LOW...SOME SUB SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NW FRI EVNG. FOR NOW WILL FCST SCT -SHRA/TSTMS NW AND ISOLD
TO SCT -SHRA..ISOLD TSTM FURTHER S & E...OVERALL THE BEST CHC N &
W OF ALB FRI AFTN AND EVNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE
MID 70S.
FRI NT THE 500HPA TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS RGN AND DRIVES CDFNT
S. WHILE THE GEM IS FASTER...ALL THE MDLS HAVE CDFNT TO THE CST
BFE DAYBREAK SAT.
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMP IT S THROUGH THE
RGN...BUT THE INSTAB IS LIMITED WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF ALB.
BY SAT MRNG MASSIVE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO GRTLKS AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE RGN. SAT WILL BE SUNNY BUT BRISK N WINDS
AT TIMES USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR INTO FCA. AFTN MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 70S WITH 60S OVER N HIR TRRN.
SAT NT FLAT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR FCA AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
NYS AND NEW ENG. WHILE AN IDEAL RADIATION NIGHT...THE SHORT 9
HOURS OF DARKNESS WILL KEEP IT IN CHECK WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCRG SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 70S..AND FEW NEAR 80 SOUTH VLYS.
SKIES MAY BCM PC AS INCR LLVL MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW ARND HIGH
WILL RESULT IN MORE CU.
SUN NT WMFNT APPROACHES RGN FM SW AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC SHORT WV
MV INTO THE GRTLKS. CLOUDS AND THREAT OF -SHRA/TSTM WILL INCR
OVERNIGHT. THE GEM KEEPS MOST PCP WEST OF RGN...GFS ALLUDES TO
POSSIBLE MCS DUN NT INTO MON MRNG. FOR NOW CHC -SHRA/TSTM WILL
SUFFICE. SUN NT WILL BE A MUCH WARMER MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN OF
LATE WITH MINS ARND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED AS 1Z GFS/CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE FRONT GOES BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ENERGY FROM THE STRONG UPPER
AIR LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA...COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER
70S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY
MORNING...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
DURING THURSDAY. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
GROUND FOG MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-11Z/THU. SOME
LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH KPOU AND KALB AS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-
13Z/THU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST OCCASIONAL HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TOWARD 06Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY KALB.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THU...ALTHOUGH MAY
TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM ONTARIO WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 80 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5
MPH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO GO DRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS HENRY COUNTY ILLINOIS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS FROM THE RAP
MODEL SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE TRYING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF KALO. THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY MOVES
EAST.
00Z UA DATA INDICATES THE NEW NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND HAVING IT GROW UPSCALE AND
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. THE 18Z
UKMET/GFS/WRF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS DID RAP TRENDS OF THE
PAST 4 HOURS. THE INCOMING 00Z WRF RUN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED PRIOR TO REACHING THE
AREA.
A MATURE/DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSTJ/KFNB AT
SUNRISE THURSDAY. BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DICTATE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS/EVOLVES
ON THURSDAY. DATA CURRENTLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT POTENTIALLY WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON TRENDS...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE
UKMET/WRF/GFS AND RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL WATCH TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND WERE MOVING EAST. LACK OF
CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. 3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST FORCING AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
EXIST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE MODELS TOTALLY DRY. I WILL ONLY HAVE 30
POPS DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST MAINLY IN THE PLAINS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.
LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
POOR WITH SOLUTIONS POOR ABILITY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND THEN TRANSLATE
THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERIFICATION
FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF EVOLUTIONS
ARE POORLY HANDLED. PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MODERATE STRENGTH AND MATURING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. THIS WILL IMPACT REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
PM AND EVENING WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. LOCAL PAST EVENTS SUGGEST
AREAS OF .5 TO LOCALLY 1.5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF SEVERE
UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY PM IF HAVE ENOUGH HEATING. IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION POOR TO VERY WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WITH HI-RES ECMWF AND FORCING FROM UKMET THE MOST ADEQUATE.
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS LARGE AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN SOLUTIONS
WITH A 60/40 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS AND 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING FROM MCS GENERATION TOOL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE NEAR MIDNIGHT OR LATER WITH POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTH NEAR INFLOW REGION. THIS WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MINS WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SUGGESTING LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH IN SOUTH FOR
LATER SHIFTS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL BUT FAR NORTH.
FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG WITH BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. RELIABLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND EVENING. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESS
WILL PRECLUDE RELIABILITY OF ANY SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE OR FAR E SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 DEGREES NE TO SW WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME AREAS MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SUGGESTED TO FALL ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN TIMING AN ISSUE AS MENTIONED BEFORE. BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. CLEARING LATE IN NE
SECTIONS SUGGESTED FOR MINS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER.
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME LATE PM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM IN FAR WEST TOWARD
EVENING WITH NEXT APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS SUGGESTED
WITH NOCTURNAL MCS THAT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE FOR MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS ISSUE SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH
60 TO 65 DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 77 TO 83 A DECENT STARTING POINT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION TO END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...DRY TO MOSTLY DRY AND MODERATE HUMIDITIES. HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/04. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. KBRL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS BUT KCID/KMLI/KDBQ MIGHT SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT
15Z/04 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA AFT 18Z/04 AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN IOWA AFT
00Z/05.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. 1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
REST OF TONIGHT:
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALONG & NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS
PARKED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN
& RUSSELL COUNTIES TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. WITH SW UPPER-DECK FLOW
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN KS. TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION HAVE KEPT TORNADO #252 IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN
COUNTIES BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFFECTED COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER &
QPF...REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
UNTIL ~5AM WHEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHWEST & WESTERN KS
MAY VENTURE INTO THESE SUBDIVISIONS.
.UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS INSERT TORNADO WATCH
#252 FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.
KRC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
KRC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THRU THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH SCT DECKS
~3,000FT ARE POSSIBLE E OF I-135 TOWARD 12Z. S WINDS WILL INCREASE
MID-LATE THU MRNG WITH SUSTAINED 17KTS/20MPH WITH 22-30KT/25-35MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS & GUSTS LKLY ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS PREVAILING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 10
NEWTON 67 87 67 87 / 20 20 20 10
ELDORADO 69 87 68 88 / 10 10 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 67 87 66 89 / 30 20 40 10
GREAT BEND 67 89 66 89 / 30 10 30 10
SALINA 68 88 68 89 / 40 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 68 88 67 89 / 30 20 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10
IOLA 68 86 68 86 / 20 20 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND
DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT
KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE
SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE
WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EAST COLORADO...SPREADING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL REACH KGLD FIRST AND KMCK AN
HOUR OR TWO LATER. HAIL...WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STRATUS IS NOW DEVELOPING AND
MVFR CIGS ARE NOW REPORTED AT KGLD. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO LIFR
BY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED AT KGLD WITH STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIKELY FURTHER WEST. FOG/STRATUS DECK ERODES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1111 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
254. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 52. THIS WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT. MAIN CONCERN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY SOME NEAR-TERM HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...IS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HAYS AND
DODGE CITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST RAP HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS AT
KHLC INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
BELIEVE THE HIGHER...MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DENVER METRO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED STORM INITIATION
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR WHICH HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT SIGNATURE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT MDT. THIS LATE NIGHT THREAT IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
DEVELOPING WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE SEVERITY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE EXTEND AND THICKNESS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE POINT WHERE
KANSAS/COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER ONE ANOTHER. A THICK OVERCAST LAYER
FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT FROM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT KEPT
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT 1 MINUTE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO THIN INTO
A BROKEN LAYER. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO
BREAK...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY THAT THE CAP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE BROKEN. HIRES WRF
RUNS AND NAM12 HAVE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 3Z TONIGHT ON THE
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ARE A
LITTLE BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIRES WRF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK UP ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS DIFFERENCES STILL LEAVE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF AND
MCS DOES DEVELOP...WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. NAM...HRRR...WRF...AND
CONSSHORT MODELS ALSO INDICATED FOG DEVELOPING FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND FOR KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING COLORADO...SO PLACED
MENTION IN WEATHER FORECAST FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH VARYING
INTENSITIES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW STAYING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...IT SEEMED LIKELY
THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. NAM
INDICATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GFS WAS NOT AS STRONG IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EITHER
WAY...LARGE HAIL AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE NAM/GFS BRING A
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.2-1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND WOULD PROMOTE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR SATURDAY THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT A LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TIED TO ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE AREA/AROUND THE AREA IT COULD
BE LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S (WEST TO EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE
SUNDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MONDAY...MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST 1/2
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CANT SAY THERE
WONT BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THEM GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...SOME HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRATUS REACHING BOTH TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS IS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RAPIDLY ADVANCING WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD PLACE KGLD UNDER THE THREAT
OF SOME FOG. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WHEN A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. THINK THIS AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS SOUTH
OF BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
LOCLDS ARE STUCK UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER 00Z CAR
RAOB. TRENDED MIN TEMPS UP JUST A TAD MORE AND ALSO INCREASED CLD
CVR THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR WRN ZONES TWD 09Z.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
930 PM UPDATE...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SEEM TO BE HANGING ON LONGER THEN
EXPECTED...WITH THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 850MB. TRENDED
CLOUD COVER UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT...TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF FROST. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HANGING ON AND DEWPOINTS NOT MOVING MUCH ON THE EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW...FEEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACRS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH LEVELS
AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE
40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES
TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH,
EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER,
THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MID 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL
GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z.
SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2
FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
&&
.MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH JUST A SCT-BKN PATCH OF
LOWER VFR STRATUS TRYING TO EDGE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY H95/H8 FLOW
INCREASES GRADUALLY AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. WILL
MAINTAIN SCT WORDING FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK
NOTABLY THIS EVENING...SO BKN CIGS WILL BE MORE THE EXCEPTION AND
UNLIKELY ANYWHERE NORTH OF KPTK.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS LESS THAN 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN INTO WCNTRL WI PRODUCING LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PER TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHRA AND TSRA IS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ALLIGNED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
H7 RH AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA THAT
FORMED JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE ON
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM
OVER REST OF EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO LK MICHIGAN REGION. TWEAKED
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER
EAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO CLIPPED BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES ON LAND JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF MQT TRIES TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. BASED ON OBSERVED PRESSURE FALLS THIS
EVENING...SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN SHOULD TRACK MORE OR LESS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WI...SIMILAR TO WHAT 18Z NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOWED AND
NOT LIKE THE WRAPPED UP AND FARTHER NORTH RAP MODEL. THUS...LIKE
IDEA FM GOING FORECAST THAT GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER SCNTRL CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SFC LOW.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE GREATEST MOSITURE TRANSPORT IS ALLIGNED AT H85-H7.
TSRA CHANCES REST OF THE NIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA SEEM MINIMAL BASED ON
UPSTREAM LIGHTNING TRENDS AND FORECAST DEPARTURE OF STEEPER H7-H5
LAPSE RATES. DOWNPLAYED TSRA OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT DID
NOT GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY DUE TO THE STRONGER/COMPACT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING.
LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO THURSDAY MORNING THINKING FOG WILL
BECOME BIGGER ISSUE OVER WEST-NORTHWEST CWA AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE DENSE FOG...BUT JUST
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY OVER KEWEENAW WITH FAVORABLE
EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE MUCH OF THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW OVER MN HAVE LED TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/WI BORDER AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST
FROM THERE OVER CENTRAL MN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER AND NEAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE SHOWERS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI ARE LIKELY NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS DRY LOW LEVELS ARE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM TRENDS SEEM WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR...WHICH SHOWS
CONVECTION TO THE W-SW SHIFTING NNE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ENTERING FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND 03Z THU...WHICH IS THE GENERAL IDEA
AMONG OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS AS WELL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CWA TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED UNDER AND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP PLACEMENT/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS (NAM/NAM-DNG/GEM-
REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP HIGH-RES WRFS) HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONVECTION...SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP ALONG THE SRN CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. BY LATE THU AFTERNOON...PRECIP
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE THE NCENTRAL AS
WELL.
NO FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S...WARMEST S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE OVER MT 00Z FRI. NAM SHOWS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN GOES TO THE RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT.
POPS MOVE OUT FOR THU NIGHT AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR EARLY
THU NIGHT...THEN WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT THAT GETS FLATTENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z MON. A
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS OUT TUE INTO WED. HAVE POPS IN FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
WITH AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUE WITH LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER NW WISCONSIN. AS BOTH AREAS OF RAIN ARE
MOVING E TO NE...EXPECT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK AND
ON INTO THURSDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG MOVE IN OFF LK SUPERIOR
ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN DIMINISHES. IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX IN
THE MORNING AS EASTERLY WINDS FAVOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOOON WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF IFR CLOUDS OFF LK
SUPERIOR WITH LOWER VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 15 KTS. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH
IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL STRETCH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FINALLY...WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND THICKNESS...SO WILL JUST HAVE
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE.
EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD
AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND
HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10
INL 68 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 20 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 40 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND
THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR
LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER
CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAVE BEEN TRENDS
OF BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV
AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE
FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK ARE THERE ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT
WILL LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER THE REGION NOW...WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW OVER EAU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO THE NW NEAR
BEMIDJI. RAIN IS NOW EAST OF ALL TERMINALS AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MORE PRECIP THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH IS LIFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE SECONDARY
LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FILL IN...RESULTING IN
A BAGGY SFC TROUGH. WITHIN THIS BAGGY TROUGH WE NOW HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE THANKS TO RECENT RAINS AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
GENERATING LOW STRATUS AND BR. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE
HRRR/GFSLAMP WITH THE STRATUS EVENTUALLY FINDING ITS WAY TO ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WRN WI BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. INDICATIONS FROM THE SREF/NAM/RAP IS THAT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BE QUITE HESITANT TO LEAVE CENTRAL MN...SO DID SLOW
DOWN IMPROVEMENTS AT AXN/STC. EVENTUALLY...ARRIVAL OF NE SFC WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF ANY MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS.
KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS UNDER 1K FT TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY. 500 FT CIG IN TAF IS LIKELY THE LOWER BOUND FOR
CIGS...WITH HEIGHT BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FEET LIKELY INTO THE
MORNING. WITH WEAK SFC WINDS...WE MAY BE A BIT EARLY WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR...THOUGH THE SUN BEING ABOUT AS HIGH IN THE
SKY AS IT GETS DOES BODE WELL FOR BREAKING THE LOW STRATUS UP BY
18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A weak convective complex has formed over SC Nebraska into far NW
Missouri, and has gradually started to slide south with time. Unlike
last night this complex has a little better environment with which
to sustain itself, as MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg ahead
of the complex and effective bulk shear values are approaching 25 to
35 knots. Both parameters are an improvement over what yesterday
morning`s complex had. Also according to SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT
values are approaching 1.8 inches where the storms are located, and
only fall off marginally with southward extent, as a good portion of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri contain 1.6 to 1.7 inches of
precipitable water. This will allow this complex to have very
efficient rain rates, as it eventually slides into the forecast
area. Short range models have been pretty consistent with this
complex eventually sliding south/southeast through western Missouri.
Should this complex slide south as the short-term hi-res models
suggest it could bring another round of morning and early afternoon
thunderstorms to the area, which would exacerbate the already
ongoing flooding problems across the area. Tough to say exactly how
much rain each area will receive, but considering the generally slow
motion of this complex along with a fairly efficient rain-making
ability, it`s conceivable that some areas could see another 1 to
several inches of rain through the morning hours. As a result of
this concern, a flash flood watch continue for the area through 10
am.
This afternoon`s chances for severe convection will depend much on
how this complex moves through the area. If the complex drops south
as the models suggest it`s conceivable that there could be enough
lingering cloud cover to prevent much in the way of
afternoon/evening destabilization. Should the complex take on more
of an easterly component or fizzle out early there could be enough
of a clearing period to get some destabilization. Confluence along a
mesoscale/synoptic boundary which will likely run through northern
Kansas and/or southern Nebraska will be maximized likely to the west
of the forecast area, and this max confluence will be the best focus
for afternoon convection. Across far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri, depending on how the boundary sets up there will not be
quite a good of a chance to get a storm going along the weaker
confluence, but NAM indicates a relatively uncapped environment, so
it may not take much to get a storm going this afternoon. Should a
surface based storm get going this afternoon there will be plenty of
instability, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE as well as
30 to 40 kts of deep shear. This would be ample for supercellular
activity, with all modes of severe weather possible, again, mainly
west of I-29 and north of HWY 36. As the afternoon/evening
convection grows upscale into a complex, another round of heavy rain
is possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
Friday convection again is dependent on how Thursday night evolves,
but for now models want to move the mid level ridge more centered
over the forecast area, which would serve as a bit of a dampener to
mid day convection, however, with some mid level flow over the apex
of the ridge, it`s possible that once again, overnight MCS
development will roll through the area, bringing yet more heavy
rain.
Saturday then sees the boundary likely move north of the forecast
area, which should take the best chances of severe weather with it.
MCS formation from Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms could
conceivably move over the area, but given the likely initiation as
well as the somewhat flattened mid level ridge it`s more likely that
the complex(es) will ride north of at least Interstate 70, if not
north of Missouri all together.
The rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week as
the mid level pattern transitions into more of a eastern trough
scenario with a sagging boundary. Should the boundary sag across the
area the generally zonal flow could result in one or several days of
training cells, so will continue to watch for more days of
potentially heavy rain through the mid range and extended forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex
is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and
in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The
convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS
overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn
hours as the cold pool takes over.
With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as
earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect
convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals
with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing
ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR
visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms,
especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the
afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as
it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish
themselves from the morning convection.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
Convection continues moving slowly eastward through southeast
Nebraska and northwest MO with more scattered activity across
northeast MO. The convection across northwest MO will likely
weaken later this morning as it shifts further southeast into our
forecast area as it encounters slightly more stable air and slightly
less low level moisture. Should see at least scattered convection
across northeast and central MO this morning. There may be some
redevelopment this afternoon along left over outflow boundaries from
late night/morning convection across central and eastern MO,
generally west of the Mississippi River. The morning convective
cloud debris should hinder the maximum temperatures today,
especially across northeast and central MO.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
A shortwave overtopping the upper level ridge over the southern
Plains should lead to another MCS which will impact at least
northeast MO late tonight. Convection will spread into the rest of
the forecast area on Friday, particularly across west central and
southwest IL as the shortwave drops southeastward through IL and a
cold front drops southward through the area. Much of the convection
may shift south and southwest of our forecast area Friday night and
Saturday as a surface ridge over the Great Lakes region noses into
our area with slightly more stable and drier air filtering southward
into much of the forecast area. Temperatures may also be a little
cooler Friday night and Saturday, especially across northeast MO and
west central IL. Another shortwave will overtop the upper level
ridge Saturday night into Sunday, but it appears that most of the
convection associated with this feature will remain north of our
forecast area. The threat for convection wlll shift southward into
our area Sunday night and Monday as an upper level trough develops
over the Great Lakes region, breaking down or flattening the upper
level ridge and causing another cold front to sag southward into our
area. The ECMWF model shifts the precipitation south of our
forecast area by Monday night, while the GFS is slower with the
southward progression of the convection keeping it going across at
least the southern half of the forecast area through Tuesday
evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF model generate precipitation across
the southern portion of the forecast area on Wednesday due to an
upper level trough/low moving eastward through the southern Plains.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as
surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC
with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the
CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and
latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of
this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog
threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is
concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought
in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid
shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat
needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF
trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU
overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work
south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have
introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70
corridor towards the end of the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected
throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of
precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat
should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 84 67 84 63 / 30 30 60 40
Quincy 81 67 80 60 / 50 70 70 30
Columbia 84 67 83 64 / 30 40 40 40
Jefferson City 84 67 85 64 / 30 40 40 40
Salem 81 65 82 62 / 10 20 60 40
Farmington 82 63 84 63 / 10 10 40 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE
as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight.
Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight
and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now.
Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog
overnight at SGF/BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Have lowered near term PoPs to reflect current radar trends and a
more northern solution of MCS development into south
central/southeast NE per 01Z HRRR and 00Z NAM. While initial
convection over north central KS was a bit further south than
anticipated the trend has been for new development to take place
towards south central NE with smaller cells popping up towards
southeast NE. This fits with the location of h8 jet per latest VWPs
which intersects the western edge of highest PWs.
So, have pared back PoPs over the southern CWA and focused higher
PoPs over northwest MO/northeast KS. Given the above expectations
believe flash flooding remains a high concern over northwest MO and
northeast KS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Very active pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms
possible as early as this afternoon and this evening, potentially
continuing off and on into the weekend. This potential for repeated
rounds of storms will continue to pose a threat for flash flooding
into the weekend.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms have already developed along
an elevated boundary over north central KS, being fed by a low-level
jet nosing into the area. This jet is forecast to weaken and pull
back a bit through the early evening, while storm motion vectors push
these storms into a more stable airmass over far eastern KS and
western MO in the wake of this morning`s MCS. Would therefore expect
this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches the KS/MO state
line with the stronger activity staying to our west for the next
several hours.
A better chance for widespread thunderstorms, possibly
evolving into another organized convective complex, will arrive
overnight when a stronger impulse will eject out of the
Rockies into our region and interact with a re-intensifying low-level
jet nosing into northeast KS. This would conceptually bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to southeast NE and northeast KS
which could roll southeast into western MO through early Thursday.
Unfortunately models are really struggling to resolve convection in
this pattern so confidence is not terribly high on this.
Nevertheless, torrential rains from Wednesday morning combined with
our anomalously wet May has left soils incapable of holding much if
any additional water. In fact 3-hour flash flood guidance is 1.5" or
lower for most areas near and west of I-35 with some spots under an
inch. Additionally, many ingredients are in place for very heavy rain
tonight including strong moisture advection/convergence over
northeast KS and northwest MO, deep moisture and warm cloud depth and
precipitable water values over 1.75" So even though there remains
some uncertainty regarding storm evolution overnight, there`s a real
risk for flash flooding if and where storms do develop. Therefore we
issued a flash flood watch through 10 AM for areas that received the
heaviest rain on Wednesday.
A lot of Thursday`s storm potential depends on the timing and
coverage of any activity that develops late tonight. If precipitation
and clouds clear early enough, there could be another round of
storms during the afternoon, some of which could be strong with
slightly stronger 700- and 500-hPa winds nosing into the area.
Conversely if storms are slow to move into the area in the morning,
southeastern portions of the area could destabilize enough for strong
storms through the early afternoon. At this time the most likely
scenario seems to be similar to today with morning convection keeping
things stable into the early evening. Of course, any storm that does
develop will have to be watched closely for additional heavy
rainfall.
This active MCS pattern looks to continue into Thursday night and
into Friday and Saturday. The orientation of the upper-level ridge
and projected LLJ would favor storms developing over northern KS,
southeast NE and IA during the daytime hours then potentially congealing
into complexes that would navigate southward into our area during the
evening and overnight. The heavy rain potential may be particularly
enhanced on Friday and Saturday when a warm front looks to become
oriented northwest to southeast from western Iowa into the Missouri
Ozarks. This would be parallel to the upper flow and overall storm
motion and could potentially lead to training storm complexes with
very heavy rain. Confidence isn`t terribly high through this period
so decided not to issue the flash flood watch beyond Thursday just
yet, though it eventually may need to be.
By Sunday and Monday the upper ridge to our south which is
responsible for this active pattern will gradually flatten out, and
could bring an end to this parade of storm complexes. However, a
lingering frontal boundary near our area and a very unstable airmass
could still spark storms either day. Enough northerly flow may spread
into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday to finally push this active
pattern to our south, but this could change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Radar and satellite loops indicate the expected convective complex
is developing further north across south central and southeast NE and
in line with the northern trend of the latest HRRR model run. The
convection will likely be focused over northwest MO/far northeast KS
overnight but do expect it to propagate southeast during the pre-dawn
hours as the cold pool takes over.
With that in mind KSTJ can expect higher rain chances as well as
earlier arrival time. Confidence lowers farther south but do expect
convection to eventually arrive at the Kansas City area terminals
with lowest confidence at KIXD, the southernmost TAF site. Prevailing
ceilings will generally be VFR although as occasional MVFR
visibilities and ceilings can be expected with the stronger storms,
especially at KSTJ. Should see a lull in activity during the
afternoon. Low confidence on convective activity Thursday evening as
it will highly dependent on where the boundaries establish
themselves from the morning convection.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
CWA remains high and dry at 0230z, as we watch convection over
north central KS continue its slow expansion in coverage and
intensity. This area...or an extension of it...should be the
primary precip threat in our CWA during the predawn hours. The
last few runs of the HRRR, as well as a quick peek at the 00z NAM,
suggest that the main convective complex will likely remain west
of our area through 12z, although westerly component of low
level/850mb flow may cause some eastward expansion of weaker
showers and thunderstorms during the predawn hours. Based on the
very latest guidance, have taken the axis of this eastward
expansion of precip through mid MO in the 09-12z time frame with
chance PoPs.
Other than a very minor tweak to PoPs early Thursday to dovetail
tonights thunderstorm chances into going forecast, no real changes
to Thursdays forecast. Obviously, exact PoPs for Thursday will
likely hinge on how overnight convection evolves, so will leave
any fine-tuning of Thursday`s PoPs to mid shift as they monitor
overnight and early morning precip.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Focus remains precip chances thru tonight.
MCV remnants across cntl MO shud continue to dissipate this evening.
The SHRA shud continue to slowly move ewd some this afternoon into
the evening while the more intense area of TSRA continues to sink
SSE. That area shud start building more swd than SE.
Focus then turns TSRA activity overnight. Have generally trended twd
the GFS soln, tho other solns have similar ideas. Expect a complex
across srn NEB/nrn KS to extend into nrn MO/srn IA late tonight into
Thurs morning. Main question will be how far E this complex builds.
Believe that as the upper trof over MN continues to lift newd, the
weak sfc fnt will gradually sag swd. As the LLJ veers tonight, this
fnt shud provide a focus for TSRA. The main question will be how far
S these TSRA develop/propagate.
Pulled PoPs further S compared to the prev forecast and is some
concern these PoPs are still not far enuf S. With little to focus on
and given that many of these features will be impacted by
convection, have kept PoPs in the chance category for now.
Hopefully, timing/location can be fine tuned with future updates.
As for temps tonight, kept warm trends aoa warmest guidance due to
cloud cover and generally sly winds. Only exception is across ern
Ozarks region where low lying areas may decouple allowing more
cooling.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Not many changes from the prev forecast overall.
With upper air pattern becoming more amplified and upper ridge
building into the region, warming trend is expected to continue thru
this weekend. However, with RA chances each day over at least some
portion of the CWA, any storms and outflow bndys will complicate the
temp forecast.
Mdls are in an agreement bringing an upper trof and associated cdfnt
swd into the region on Mon, possibly thru the CWA by Tues. That
said, am not certain this fnt will push as far swd as currently
advertised by mdls. Have therefore kept low PoPs behind the fnt but
did trend cooler for Tues and esp on Wed.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Over the last few hours low cloud satellite enhancement as well as
surface obs have indicated a slow but steady increase of VFR SC
with bases around 5kft, with patchy fog over northwest half of the
CWA adding an extra headache to this TAF set. Based on 00z NAM and
latest RUC RH progs have gone with a gradual eastward expansion of
this VFR cloud deck, with a corresponding decrease of the fog
threat as this cloud deck increases. As far as precipitation is
concerned, have attempted to follow latest HRRR trends and brought
in some VCTS into KCOU during the predawn hours, and will let mid
shift monitor overnight convection to determine if this threat
needs to be expanded. From mid morning into Thursday afternoonm, TAF
trends attempt to reflect a warm sector look, with scattered CU
overtopped by a mid deck. Next round of convection should work
south Thursday evening, and given good model consensus have
introduced prevailing TSRA at KUIN, with VCTS along the I-70
corridor towards the end of the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered-broken clouds 3-5kft are expected
throughout the period. At this point have omitted mention of
precipitation through Thursday evening, but thunderstorm threat
should be increasing dramatically in the 06-12z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 65 85 68 86 / 10 30 30 50
Quincy 64 81 67 82 / 20 50 60 60
Columbia 63 83 67 85 / 30 40 30 50
Jefferson City 64 85 67 87 / 30 30 30 50
Salem 59 82 66 85 / 5 10 20 50
Farmington 60 83 62 86 / 10 10 10 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday.
Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken
this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening.
Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area.
Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.
Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
Convection has formed this evening across northern KS/Southeast NE
as expected and will likely develop into a complex overnight.
Mesoscale models keep much of this activity to our north overnight
and on Thursday and will keep our TAFS on the dry side for now.
Will continue with previous forecast of some stratus/light fog
overnight at SGF/BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1115 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AREA
FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CENTER OVER FERGUS...AND PARTS OF
JUDITH BASIN...CHOTEAU...BLAINE...AND CASCADE COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0515Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNLESS
OTHERWISE MENTIONED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING KBZN AND KHLN)
THROUGH 09Z, AND PARTIAL CLEARING THERE COULD BRING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG THROUGH AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE, A
DISTURBANCE IN THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EAST
OF INTERSTATE 15 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA (INCLUDING KLWT AND
KHVR) THROUGH AROUND 16Z. MOUNTAINS THERE WILL GENERALLY BE
OBSCURED. CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOSTLY BE LOW VFR, BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 15 (INCLUDING KGTF AND
KCTB), BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MEAGER...JUDITH BASIN...FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES. PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER BLAINE COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. NUTTER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE INDICATING STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER SATURDAY, SO HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THIS TIME AND MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK INSTABILITY PERIOD OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY, BUT WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERALL, THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 69 49 72 / 50 30 20 40
CTB 44 69 42 72 / 30 30 20 10
HLN 49 72 52 75 / 70 30 30 30
BZN 45 70 48 72 / 60 20 40 40
WEY 36 66 39 68 / 30 20 20 60
DLN 43 68 47 70 / 60 30 30 40
HVR 52 69 47 76 / 50 70 20 40
LWT 50 67 49 70 / 80 60 30 40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO
THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE
VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS
ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS
CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM
AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED
LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE
FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS
AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL
BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS
THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A
SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A
FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE
POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET
THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE
FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A
COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES
OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. USING A BLEND OF THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS
THAT...BY 07Z...THE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO WILL BE SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY 08Z
NEAR A LXN-MHN-OGA LINE. THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH
LATER TIME FOR THE MERGER...SOMETIME 10Z OR LATER. THE TIMING CAN BE
TIED DOWN TO ABOUT A FOUR-HOUR PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD AN
EARLIER TIME AND SET 08Z FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT LBF.
WITH EASTERLY WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH 1000-1500 FEET CEILINGS LIKELY AND A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET. THE PROBABILITY OF
CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA FIRING ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
H500 HEIGHTS WERE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS
LENDING TO THE SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...LIKELY MAKING PROGRESS
TO ABOUT I80 BEFORE TURNING EAST AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS...AND NOT
SURE IT WILL MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THE SEVERE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING. A LONE STORM WELL EAST OF THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RICHARDSON COUNTY AND LIKELY HAS
PRODUCED AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH SOME REGENERATION ON THE
BACK SIDE. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND IN SOUTHEAST NE. ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL AS PW VALUES WERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WITH BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM.
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND
REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND
OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED.
FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER
THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT
AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM.
SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION
POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY
OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE
BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING
RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR
40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE
CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE.
BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES.
SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A
BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH
SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION
SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT
WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO
BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD AFFECT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 10-14Z. BELIEVE KOFK
MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS 11-14Z. COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 11-16Z...THEN SCATTERING OUT. COULD BE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...LIKELY BY 18-21Z
AND BEYOND...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...
WILL LET LATER FORECASTS FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WAS SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST HRRR ITERATION SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE AREAL
SPREAD/MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION AND FOLLOWED THAT MODEL FOR MAIN
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS
UPDATE REGARDING THIS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT
MAINLY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR
INDICATES THE AREA OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO REACH THE MISSOURI
RIVER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AS OF
230 UTC...WHICH GIVEN LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS PROGGED TO ENTER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 04-06 UTC AHEAD OF MULTIPLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 23 THROUGH 01 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE CLOSE TO THIS TIMELINE...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR
SOLUTIONS FOR POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS CONVECTION PROPAGATING INTO MORE STABLE AIR INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. REGARDING FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. BUT DO EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. WITH OUR RECENT RAINS AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TRIES TO ENCROACH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TONIGHT. HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEST...KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND THERE
ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW ANY CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER. DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE TRACK OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FLATTENS AND LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE GLOBAL MODELS PAINT MODERATE VALLEYS OF CAPE AND
SHEAR ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
FOR CERTAIN...THERE DOES AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS TO CONTINUE AT KJMS UNTIL BEFORE/AROUND
12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER
KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KMOT. SHOWERS AND LOWER VFR EXPECTED TO APPROACH KDIK
AROUND 15Z AND BECOME MORE DEFINITE BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z AT
KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS BAD AS FCST.
A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE BEFORE 09Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT
KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN
FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/
CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF
DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE
UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING.
ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR
DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MOIST ALBEIT LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT
KJST /AND MVFR AT KAOO/. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR HAS SLID IN
FROM THE EAST RAISING CIGS TO VFR FROM KUNV EASTWARD AT 04Z.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS WIDESPREAD MVFR /LOCAL IFR/
CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF
DRIZZLE SLIDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE
UPSLOPE/MARITIME SSE FLOW PATTER WILL THEN HELP SUPPORT THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY RA-- INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FOG IMPACTS WILL BE LESS THAN WED MORNING.
ON THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE OR SCT LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CFROPA ON FRI WILL LEAD TO SCT/NMRS TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BUT BEFORE FROPA...MIXING AND A SRLY BREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO A VFR
DAY AFTER SOME MORNING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY AT TUP...MKL AND JBR NEAR SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT
FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN
THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS
WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN
THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE
ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE
EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY.
925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER
COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS...
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE.
THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER
CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN
850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME
FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT
DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW
THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO
WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN
LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
.MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS
HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN.
THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING
MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I-
70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF.
NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING.
IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG
JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL
AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD
THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE
03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING
TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP
MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z
CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP
AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW
THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE
STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND
THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO.
TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
WITH SHOWERS HAVING MOVED EAST OF KRST/KLSE...MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS. LARGE MVFR/IFR
CLOUD DECK ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON TIMING AND CEILING HEIGHT...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OVER TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
04.09 TO 04.10Z PERIOD. LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU
00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN
EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF
KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM
AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z
OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN
PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO
THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM
SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO
COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT
LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS
INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT
COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL
PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS
AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE.
MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS WL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT MIDMORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND IFR AT KCOS. AFTER
MIDMORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB. THIS
AFTERNOON IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS OR A TSTMS COULD MOVE
INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z LOW STRATUS WL
LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB AND SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON KALS SHOULD HAVE BREEZY S TO SW WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EXTENSIVE
DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH SOME OF THE DRIER AIR EVEN FILTERING
DOWN QUITE LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK...SO THESE SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO AFFECT THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA
BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. DO NOT SEE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING VERY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO SMALL SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOK OKAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT WELL
INLAND TO MAINLY LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER/OKEECHOBEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA...WILL
TWEAK INLAND POPS DOWN AND ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS SLIGHTLY.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WAS INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS...
COMBINED WITH TIDAL INFLUENCES FROM THE RECENT FULL MOON WILL LEAD
TO A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. USUALLY THESE ASTRONOMICAL
CONDITIONS PRODUCE THE GREATEST RISK AT THE BEACHES ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND RECENT DAYTONA BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTS INDICATE THAT RIP CURRENTS STILL HAVE A STRONG SEAWARD PULL.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO INTERIOR SITES
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...NOT MUCH WIND INDICATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAYBE 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. A STEADY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF
THE WATERS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. SEAS 1-3FT. SMALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD
TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS
ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE
MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER
VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDINESS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS. WILL EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING TO LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST ACTIVITY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE SATELLITE
SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY. EXPECT SOME
THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THAT IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR
MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS
FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN
S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE
WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A
RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE
TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB
LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE
DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO
JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS
TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP
AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT
FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT.
GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP
SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S
IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID
WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. POCKETS OF MVFR CLOUDS NEAR PIA WILL SHIFT EAST AND LIFT
TO VFR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY DESPITE PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A VEIL OF CIRRUS
FROM AN MCS IN MISSOURI WILL COVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB WITH HEATING TODAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. A NOCTURNAL MCS
IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF IL THIS EVE...AND ROLL INTO
WESTERN IL LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS HOLD OUR STORMS FOR PIA
AND SPI UNTIL AFTER 08-09Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS NO STORMS NEAR OUR
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. VCTS WAS STILL INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH OF THE MCS. MVFR VIS AND CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY
STORMS LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START OUT SSE, THEN BECOME SW AND CLIMB TO 8-10KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KT TONIGHT AND REMAIN SW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE
SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT
FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN
IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN
BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS
POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START
RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL
CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE
SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING
PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K
J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER
WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT
IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA
THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL
LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT
TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE
GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING
AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS
RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO
EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE
GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS
SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN
THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON WED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
FOG HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID 50S TO LOW
60S. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY BURN OFF AND CIGS TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. STILL EXPECTING A
SIMILAR DAY TODAY TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...GENERALLY BORDERING THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
RAIN/THUNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR IN THE
FAR EAST...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT KSJS AND KJKL...AND AS
FAR WEST AS KLOZ. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE AT KSYM AND KSME. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF LATE LAST NIGHT/INTO
THIS MORNING WITH CONCERNS TO THE FOG. WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED
TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXACT IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT TODAY...AND CLOUD COVER/TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN
AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO.
WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS
/BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT
AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS.
FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES
AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DRC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LED TO A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF STRATUS
/BASED BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FEET/ THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT
AS THEY RESIDE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS.
FOR DTW...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD CEILINGS HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH 18 TO 20Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS BASES
AND SCATTERS THE MOISTURE OUT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. MEDIUM THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS
GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER
TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A
THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE
BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY
STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT.
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KINL...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL AT KINL AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SITE.
EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND VIS TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
15-17Z DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THIS TIME
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. ALL SITES EXCEPT KBRD
AND KINL WILL RETURN TO LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 22-01Z...AND
HINTED AT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 40 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT LIKELY REMAIN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR OVC THROUGH THE DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 30 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 30 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 20 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1047 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...Short Term Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term
model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely
dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The
other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened
considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that
is won`t survive this far south, given increasing
heights/inhibition across the area.
The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the
outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will
currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45
AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the
remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable
whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow
convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just
maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half
or so of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog
around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid
morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours.
BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower
ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and
visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some
additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds
will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term
forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of
TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the
next 24 hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...12z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR will remain for JLN through the next 24 hours. Light fog
around 5sm this morning for SGF through 14z will burn off by mid
morning and VFR will prevail for SGF through the next 24 hours.
BBG has some fog down to around 2sm this morning and some lower
ceilings through 15z but an improvement both in ceilings and
visibility will occur by late morning. BBG could see some
additional light fog development late tonight after 09z. Winds
will remain southerly 10 knots or less. Hi-Res short term
forecast models suggest scattered convection will stay north of
TAF sites across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks through the
next 24 hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
634 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE OVERHAULED POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS/
IS DOING A TERRIBLE JOB HANDLING THE FACT THAT RAIN IS SIMPLY MUCH
LIGHTER AND QUICKER-MOVING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THAT/S BECAUSE THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE DEEP...MOISTURE-ROBBING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN SD. IN SUMMARY...WE LEFT A LIKELY
POP AROUND BAKER FOR A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT DRASTICALLY REDUCED
POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEASTERN MT AND COMPLETELY TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WE ALSO
TOOK OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY...AS OF 09 UTC THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TWO SEPARATE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING A DOWN-
WARD TREND RECENTLY AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING. THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION IN EASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD...AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTH END IS
PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELY
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH 18 UTC TODAY IN RESPECT TO THAT
AND MODEL INSISTENCE IN MOISTURE THERE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUGGEST THE DEEPER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DISRUPTING MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT
AND SO WE BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH SHORTWAVES
WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL...FROM NEAR 60 F IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MT TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE HAVE
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE AGAIN FEEL THAT MOST DIURNALLY-INITIATED
CONVECTION WILL BE HELD RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE AREA WILL ONCE MORE BE BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BY
PEAK HEATING.
TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND A FEW CELLS COULD COME OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 00 AND 06
UTC. THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LESS THAN IT WAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITHOUT ANY DEFINED SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES. THERE IS NONETHELESS A VERY LOW...BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM DURING THE EVENING TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS BASED ON MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR.
FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL MOVE DEEPER INTO THE 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. THE 00 UTC NAM ACTUALLY SUGGESTS MLCAPE COULD BE HIGHER
THAN THAT /OVER 2000 J/KG/ IN PLACES LIKE SHERIDAN AND BROADUS. AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES BY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF A 500-MB LOW
THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
CONTINUE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ON AT LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY NOT BE OVERCOME UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH. BOTH EFFECTIVE AND
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE HELD NEAR 30 KT...BUT WE MAY
STILL HAVE ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE DEMONSTRATED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH AND K-INDEX VALUES OF 35+ IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...AND
SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOW-MOVING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE RESULT COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND WE MAY
EVEN NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH A LATER
FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES.
FINALLY...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCED
QUICK RISES...BUT ONCE LOCAL RUNOFF FINISHED MOST CREEKS DROPPED
JUST AS FAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RESIDUAL PULSE OF WATER
MOVING THROUGH SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS TODAY AND THE GREATER RISK
OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WATCH
IS CERTAINLY STILL WARRANTED. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. DESPITE AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US...OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHUNTS A MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION. AREA MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY
SHERIDAN AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
THEREFORE BROUGHT IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. KEEPING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST COAST
TROUGH. WITH THE DRYING TREND...COMES WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD 80S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AREAS...FROM KBIL TO KLVM. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 051/074 055/076 054/079 054/083 058/085 058/083
2/T 34/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
LVM 071 049/072 048/074 049/077 049/082 053/082 053/080
3/T 44/T 53/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 34/T
HDN 073 051/077 055/079 054/081 055/085 058/087 058/086
2/T 23/T 53/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/T
MLS 066 051/078 058/078 055/081 056/084 059/085 059/084
2/T 13/T 53/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T
4BQ 066 050/076 055/076 054/079 055/082 058/084 058/084
2/T 13/T 63/T 30/B 01/B 11/B 23/T
BHK 060 049/076 055/077 051/079 051/081 054/083 056/082
6/T 23/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 23/T
SHR 070 048/074 051/072 050/074 050/079 051/081 053/082
3/T 45/T 64/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO
THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE
VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS
ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS
CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM
AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED
LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE
FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS
AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL
BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS
THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A
SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A
FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE
POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET
THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE
FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A
COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES
OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 16Z-18Z THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MCS ACROSS SWRN SD COULD
BRUSH NRN NEB THIS MORNING AFFECTING KVTN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD LIFT INTO SD AND REMAIN NORTH OF NEB.
MEANWHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN NEB WILL MOVE MOSTLY EAST-
NORTHEAST. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE FCST AREA COULD REMAIN
STORM FREE THROUGH 21Z. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS
WEAK...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
FROM 22Z ONWARD ACROSS WRN AND SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY MAY LAST INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WEAKEN 06Z-09Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP 03Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
847 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS COVER 98PCT OF THE AREA. BUT SMALL HOLES IN THE NRN HALF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIGHT RAIN SLIDING
NORTHWARD...BUT PRECIP NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH AS
THESE MOVE PAST THE SENSORS. WILL INCH POPS DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LATEST MESO MDLS PROTRAY A MAINLY DRY TIME. LAKE BREEZE
STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
WELL-CONFINED TO WARREN COUNTY. LIGHT BUT DEVELOPING GRADIENT WIND
FROM THE S SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO FAR INLAND.
PREV...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY
MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO
1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING
INTO S PA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT
SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
723 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AS PER WV AND IR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER CLOUDY AND AT TIMES WET OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA.
EARLY TODAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL PA. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HI RES HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...WITH NO STRONG
FORCING TO BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE WITH
PW AROUND 1.5" SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND TRACKS/TRAINS SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW.
KEPT MAXES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE NORTH WILL BE THE MILDEST...WITH
READINGS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARITIME INFLUENCE RELAXES
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION NUDGING THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...MIXING MAY BE IMPROVED ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CIGS RISING AND PERHAPS BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF
SUN BY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC AS OF NOW.
THE NW WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT WITH NEARLY NORMAL L/M70S FOR
HIGHS...AND AGAIN KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL
SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS MAINLY
MVFR...BUT IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN GOOD MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOW DOWN TO
1/4 MI IN JST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS JUST MOVING
INTO S PA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFT...BUT SE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET MUCH BETTER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
OVERALL THE LOWEST CIGS MAY BE AT JST...WHERE THE LIGHT
SE FLOW IS UPSLOPE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN...CHC OF PM TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE.
MON...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AND SHRA/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW
OVER CA. ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN GENERAL...BUT THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY. KEPT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AND INTO NORTHEAST WY AS WEAK ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO
2500 J/KG ARE PROGGED FOR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE TROF. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEAN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS
NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT
MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
625 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. UPDATED POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AS
NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS TODAY MAY INHIBIT
MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT GENERALLY MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
530 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF WHICH REMAINS
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHERN ND. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL
EJECT INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL REACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THEREFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
AGAIN...AND SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THERE TODAY SO WILL FORGO WATCH FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
TO 10 KTS IN THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CONSIDER
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY EVENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
INGREDIENTS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY WEAK. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
SATURDAY BETWEEN EXITING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. SYSTEM WEAKENS SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SCT MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVER WESTERN SD IN RAIN/TS. LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SCT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AM WITH SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT KRAP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF NE WY. REMOVED MVFR CIG MENTION AT KGCC PER SAT TRENDS...WITH
THE RAP MODEL INDICATING LL DRY WESTERLY FLOW ENSUING THERE.
AFTERNOON TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW/S AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AN
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN TS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS
AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT
FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM
VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CSV WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING...WITH VCNTY
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE EARLY EVENING EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEGREADE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS. BNA/CKV MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LATE NIGHT
FOG BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THE PERIOD.
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOG TRIGGERING IFR AND/OR MVFR
VSBY NEAR TUP AND MKL NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE LIGHT WINDS FROM
VARYING DIRECTIONS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING QUICKLY WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 80. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID
LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SCATTERED OR BROKEN CUMULOUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IT
AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MEAGER PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS
WERE TIED TO CVA AND OMEGA WITH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NRN WI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH QPF IN
THE NEAR TERM...SO FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR AND NAMNEST THAT INDICATE
ONLY A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NRN CWA...STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEAK 1000-925 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
NARROW RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE
EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY.
925 MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO SRN WI ON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WARMING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKE COOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE. INSTABILITY ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PREDICATED ON UNREALISTIC NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS....TRIGGERING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE IL BORDER
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...KEEPING COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY... ALONG WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WINDS AND FRONT WILL USHER
COOLER LAKE AIR TO INLAND LOCATIONS... SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE... AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THUS...
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE... BUT UP A NOTCH FROM FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE.
THE FRONT WILL CUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH WI FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PW IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6 AND INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHEST TOWARD THE IL BORDER. SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET... BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE RIDGE RIDER.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
IOWA/ILLINOIS... WITH SOUTHERN WI BEING BRUSHED BY THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE... BUT THAT/S
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING AT THIS TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN WI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
LIKELY IN SOUTHERN WI... SO I REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THE THUNDER
CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN
850MB FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT/THU TIME
FRAME. THE GFS LIGHTS IT UP WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS IT
DRY AND SLIDES IT FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WATCHING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SURFACE LOW
THAT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE COULD DROP INTO
WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z...SPREADING INTO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING THEN
LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PCPN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
HAVE COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...MODELS RAMP UP NE 925 MB WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX UP TO THESE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION THEY COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE MIXING AND WE COULD SEE SOME WND GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BUILDING LARGER WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. EARLIER IN THE DAY...WRF AND HRRR WERE
HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF
ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN NW FLOW. OUT WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE AND END UP FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS BEING NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE STATE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE TREND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS. THE NAM
AND EURO AGREE ON HOLDING OFF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. BUT EVEN STILL...CAN NOT JUSTIFY MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEATHER LOOKING TO
REMAIN DRY WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE MONDAY
AND BE ORIENTED EAST...WEST...AND DO BELIEVE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NW ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NATURAL STATE. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 64 86 69 86 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 64 89 67 92 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 65 85 67 86 / 10 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 89 71 91 / 10 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 89 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 87 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 66 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 64 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 68 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT / LONG TERM...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THRU THAT TIME AS WELL
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN CA. FOR TODAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THRU
00Z FRI...WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN TELLER AND NRN
EL PASO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR HINTING AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PALMER DVD OVR ELBERT COUNTY AND THE NSSL WRF
KEEPING THAT AREA DRY. FEEL THAT WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THAT AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE THING THAT THE NSSL WRF...NAM
AND HRRR ALL AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY ABOUT 21Z
OVR ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND MOVING INTO BACA...SRN BENT AND SRN
PROWERS COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO
THAT AREA. OTRW...WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPC HAS A GOOD SHARE OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WX...WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVR KIOWA AND NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTIES. THE NAM
SHOWS AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVR NRN EL PASO
COUNTY...CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. IT
LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WL PROBABLY BE AT 20-30 KTS.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...A SFC LOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS BRINGS NERLY WINDS
INTO EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND OVR CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA AND BENT
COUNTIES. THE NAM PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN OVR TELLER...EL
PASO...PUEBLO...OTERO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS
AS IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS BANKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
INDUCED LEE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO LA JUNTA LINE.
MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...COULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER...AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LOW SHEARING
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND A HINT OF
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...PASSING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NORTH TO EAST OF
KCOS MAY EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
1930Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS NOSING DOWN BEHIND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WHICH
WAS PUSHING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND. THE OVERALL
DRIER AIR MASS HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. BUT THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURRING NEAR
THE LAKE-SUMTER COUNTY LINE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION FOR ISOLATED EVENING STORMS THERE AND INTO WESTERN
METRO ORLANDO. THEREAFTER WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS THE
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO PUSH ANY ISOLATED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTO THE COAST.
MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRI-SUN...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC
CLOSED LOW BROADEN/OPEN FRI TRANSITIONING SEAWARD SAT INTO SUN AS
MODEST UPPER RIDGING REPLACES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INVERTED SFC
TROUGHING JUST OFF THE SEABOARD WILL DEVELOP SFC LOW WHICH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE NE MARITIMES TRAILING AND STRETCHING A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...LOCAL BLYR FLOW WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE
DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE LOW FRI THEN
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE SCT RANGE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES INLAND.
MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS IN LOWER 70S.
MON-THU...DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF UPPER PATTERN INDICATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING LOCALLY. MOISTURE
VALUES FORECAST TO STEADILY RISE. SFC PATTERN YIELDS INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW VEERING FROM SE TO S TO SW MON-THU AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL DIAL TO 40-50 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION FOR STORMS ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND RATHER
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLD ATLC SHRA
MAY BRUSH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION VC TERM FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
TO GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZE AND GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
FRI-MON...SEAS AOB 3 FT WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT. CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE NORTHWARD FRI-SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 20
MCO 72 90 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
MLB 72 88 71 87 / 10 20 20 20
VRB 71 87 70 88 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 72 91 73 91 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 71 90 70 89 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 73 91 73 90 / 10 30 20 40
FPR 70 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GRIDS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND GREATER HEATING WILL LEAD
TO MORE INSTABILITY. THE HRRR SHOWED GREATER COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SUPPORTING A POSSIBILITY OF
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR HAIL.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
EXPECT A DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MAV AND MET MOS POPS
ARE LOW. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY BE GREATER SATURDAY. THE
MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY RIDGING OR A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE EARLY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OR TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER
VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. CAE/CUB IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. CLOUDINESS IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING TO SCT TO BKN CU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
WHERE SATELLITE SUGGESTS BETTER HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR
NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP FOR OGB/AGS/DNL ONLY.
EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR FOG OR LOWER CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS WILL
TRY TO WORK BACK TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING A RETURN TO IFR AT
CAE/CUB...AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS. ANY MORNING FOG AND
LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
FRIDAY WITH DIRUNAL HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FRIDAY.
JEE/RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
338 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKES INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHORE
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AREAS WELL INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF 582 DM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO
A SHARPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL JET SPURRED ON BY A LEAD MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUMP IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ENABLE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
CREEP IN FROM WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEPARTING HIGH WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH RETURN MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS ON SUNDAY...BUT FELT
COMFORTABLE IN THE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF
GLOBAL GEM TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY.
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
UNDOUBTEDLY WILL IMPACT INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO ABOUT 50 KT
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. 12Z GFS CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SEVERE REPORTS
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT AGAIN MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MODULATE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/MINOR FLOODING COULD
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ATTAIN PEAK WARMING
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN BEHIND SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKING AT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IN THE
80S...WITH LOW POPS ON MONDAY FOR A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY MID WEEK AND YIELD
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
348 AM CDT...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS
WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE
RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY
TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT
SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH
THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW
GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF
ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
214 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. ANOTHER
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE
OF THESE WAVES...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS HOWEVER THEY DO SO WITHIN A TIME FRAME OF NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WILL ONLY
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ON THE OFF CHANCE THE WEAK FORCING IS ABLE TO
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS SOME CU PERCOLATING OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA TO
SEE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY DEEPER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MID/LATE
THIS EVENING AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT AS IT IS A
SLOW OUTLIER. THE INCREASING FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH TEMPERED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE FRONT...TO LOW 70S INLAND. SOUTH OF I-80...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
348 AM CDT...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD AFTER A QUIETER DAY ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MOST ORGANIZED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL 3+ DAYS OUT SO THE SPECIFICS
WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN...BUT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE
RADAR SCREEN AS WELL. MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN CANADA
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY INCLUDING THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY...WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...THE APPROACHING TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATIVELY
TILT UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS OCCURS WELL NORTH. THAT
SAID...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFIC HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VERY HIGH EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
DEEP MOIST PROFILE. THE FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS WILL BE ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY THE CASE WITH
THE ECMWF...BUT THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
IF THE DEEP MOIST PROFILE WINS OUT. WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW
GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WIND PROFILE...THOUGH NOT A ZERO THREAT IF
ANY LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR AS LCLS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SHIFT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WILL REMAIN. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARING AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS PUSH IN BEHIND WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCATTERED A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH
THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. NOT SURE HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE AS THERE
IS AMPLE IFR AND LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND
THINKING THAT MIXING WILL HELP CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF IFR CIGS HANG OUT OVER THE LAKE
AND KEEP MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
WE SHOULD GET TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE TO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE
BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING...CROSSING NORTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...
PERHAPS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE NOTED ON 15Z/10AM SATELLITE/RADAR
MOSAICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE FIRST IS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS AREA...WHILE THE SECOND IS
FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED ON UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS...THE TRAJECTORY OF BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN
S/SW OF THE KILX CWA TODAY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE
WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FAR SW CWA. HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A
RUSHVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE ONLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE
TO MID/HIGH CLOUD BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE 950-850MB
LAYER. THAT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIP AT BAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO THIS POINT. DESPITE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...THE
DRY NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF POPS MOST OF TODAY TO
JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SEEMS
TO HAVE SET UP AND SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED SCOTT COUNTY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP
AS FAR EAST AS PEORIA TO SPRINGFIELD...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT EASTERN EXTENT...BUT
FEELING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-55. THE MAIN REASONING FOR THIS IS LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN TO SUPPORT RAIN/STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...PROVIDING A WARMING INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TRACK OF OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MCS. EVENING SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL ADVERTISE SOME SORT OF MCS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA VICINITY BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP`S EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSH THROUGH. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE PULLED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME VARIANCES AMONG THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION DIMINISHMENT RATES
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE LIMITED POP`S TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE EVENING AND QUICKLY DRIED IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT.
GETTING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW OVER ILLINOIS BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY. HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP`S TO KEEP
SATURDAY EVENING DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S
IN THE NORTH AS A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER POTENTIAL OF THE GFS. BY MID
WEEK...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM...WITH THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE...ALTHOUGH BOTH LARGELY KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING: HOWEVER, THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE
STORMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. NAM IS THE FASTEST MODEL...BRINGING
STORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS EARLY AS 09Z. MEANWHILE,
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAPID REFRESH IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER,
SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
AT THIS POINT PREFER THE SLOWER RAPID REFRESH. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES, DO NOT WANT TO INCLUDE PREDOMINANT THUNDER AT THE
TAF SITES YET. INSTEAD, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT RAIN
WITH VCTS AT KPIA BY 12Z, THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 16Z. BASED
ON PRELIMINARY FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE MAINTAINED LOW VFR
CEILINGS AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
TO MVFR WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE HOURLY FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. INSTABILITY IS
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE HRRR AND NAM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ONGOING FOG THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAD BEEN
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST...SUCH AS KSME AND KSYM HAVE
SINCE DROPPED TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISSUED A SPS FOR FOG PRETTY EARLY ON IN THE SHIFT...BUT
FOG HAS SINCE SPREAD WEST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA. LUCKILY...THE SUN
IS STARTING TO RISE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...AND WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERHEAD...EXPECT SUN TO BEGIN
BURNING OFF THE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
MORNING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THAT BY THIS
POINT...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THEIR LOWEST POINT AND SHOULD START
RISING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE SUNRISE. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL
CURVE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING TEMPS FROM HERE ON
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC TODAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL SEE
SOME EFFECTS OF THIS LOW FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A BREAK IN
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS WE WILL SOON FIND OUT.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY...EXPECT
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCT OUT OF CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND BETTER INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...STILL EXPECTING BEST ENERGY TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION...NEAREST THE FORCING
PRODUCED BY THE EXITING LOW. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2K
J/KG...SO NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY RESULTED IN THUNDER
WITH LESS INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ANYWHERE THERE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY LOST AS THE SUN SETS...AND ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BEGIN EDGING ITS WAY INTO KY. THE PRESENCE OF LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE WHICH BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS...WILL PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT
IMPACTS OF THAT FOG WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PRESENT TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVEL ALONG THIS RIDGE AND END UP CROSSING THROUGH OUR CWA
THROUGH THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS KY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TWO THINGS TO LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FIRST...THE EXITING LOW TO OUR SE WILL
LIKELY STILL BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SE. SECOND...THE INCOMING BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAK IN THE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THE EXACT
TIMING AND SET UP IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AS EACH OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SEEM TO TAKE DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA. TOOK A MORE
GFS APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...LEADING TO INCREASING POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
AFTER 0Z FRIDAY...BUT THIS SOLUTION ALSO SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING RIDGE ERODING
AWAY AT CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A MUCH MORE MILD LOW 60S OVERNIGHT...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...ANY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR AREA OF CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE/MCV OR MCS APPROACHING EASTERN KY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
IT WORKS AROUND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS
RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THIS...WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE/MCV IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE S SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS FROM THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED BY SUNDAY AS IT IS DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HOLD ONTO HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHING WORKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAK RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO
EASTERN KY TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN END LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WORKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH EASTERN KY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION WHILE THE
GFS RUNS ARE SLOWER.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE MCS OR MCV/SHORTWAVE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PASS
SOUTHWEST OF MUCH OF EASTERN KY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO EASTERN KY. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON SAT WITH THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS IN
THE VICINITY. GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON WED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE VA AND WV BORDERS. AS A RESULT
WILL NOT FORECAST THUNDER AT ANY TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION
VCTS AT SJS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF ON
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
145 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU MAINLY IN
THE 4-5K FT RANGE. THIS CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WEAK
SURFACE GRADIENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DTW TAF SITE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED SO SHOWER CHANCE WITH PASSAGE WILL
BE LOW. WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY FROM THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE.
SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ALL TAF SITES.
FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY IS
LOW. THE LATER THE PASSAGE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY IT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
UPDATE...
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD DECK UNDER 825MB INVERSION VERY THIN
AND INVERSION VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING STRATUS SHIELD THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE FROM DIURNAL MIXING. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FOUR COUNTIES. THE STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE SHRINKING WITH THUMB REGION LAST TO GO.
WILL STILL HAVE SCT CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A REGION OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN AND FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TIED TO THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NW WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WILL DAMPEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO CREST A LONGER WAVELENGTH RIDGE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
S-SE FLOW ACROSS SRN MI OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOWEVER RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM SOLUTION BECOMES
RATHER BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY OWING TO ITS
APPARENT OVER PRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GFS AND RAP PLAN VIEWS...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO 60. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SB CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH WILL
TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACHIEVE. THE BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WILL
OVERSPREAD SE MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE
BUILD UP OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LATE DAY CONVECTION
/IF ANY/ TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MOST PROBABLE MEANS FOR
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG A
NARROW MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE /PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ANY ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY OR LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT MINS IN COMPARISON TO THE
LAST FOUR NIGHTS.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGE IN LOCAL AIRMASS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SET LOCATIONS ON
A PACE TO ACHIEVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RIGHT ABOUT 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGING. LAKE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED LEAD COLD FRONT TO
RACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A MORE
WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/NMM/ARW ALL
DEPICT A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN WHICH A MUCH STRONGER LAKE INFLUENCE
ALLOWS THE LEAD EDGE TO RACE NORTH-TO-SOUTH OFF OF LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO, VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS AND GENERAL IRRELEVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF M59 BUT
ONLY 60S FROM MIDLAND COUNTY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN EARLY
FROPA. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
FRI AFTN. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25-30 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY DUE TO FUNNELING OF NE WIND.
CONTINUE TO QUESTION LEGITIMACY OF NWP OUTPUT REGARDING QPF ALONG
THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, DESPITE HIGH CAPE
INDICATED BY THE NAM/NMM DUE TO DEWPOINTS THAT CONTINUE TO BE FAR
TOO HIGH. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORCING FIELD AND THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP IS THAT A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WILL
BECOME RAPIDLY TILTED GIVEN FAST PACE OF SURFACE-BASED FORCING AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING AND THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED 30 POP IN THE DETROIT AREA WHERE
FROPA WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT WENT SCHC OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION OF
MARINE MODIFIED AIR WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE BETWEEN 48-55
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND NEARLY FULL INSOLATION. NOTHING MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT MODERATE NE
GRADIENT OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL REINFORCE EXISTING SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CONTAINING HIGHS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, EXCEPT 55 TO 60 IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRC
UPDATE.......DRC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW STRATUS/ST-CUMULUS CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WIND FIELD BLW
3K. NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION...A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA/SHRA OVER EASTERN SD HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX AND
RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN
WC/CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REDEVELOPING
AFT 3Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY... WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY DAY 7... WITH A
STEADY SLOW WARMING TREND OVER TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL... SO DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO WITH ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL MAINLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SO NOT
A PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AOA 1500 J/KG ADVERTISED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40KT...
THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THEY/D LIKELY JUST BE A HAIL THREAT. ONCE SATURDAY
NIGHT/S PCPN MOVES OUT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THINGS
LOOK TO BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. PCPN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...
WITH A WEAK FROPA WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PCPN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE.
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DENSE STRATUS AND WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP
THE LOWER CLDS THIS MORNING...AND WITH HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...IT SEEMS THAT IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HR OR TWO BEFORE CIGS
LIFT TO VFR...OR HIGH END MVFR. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT MOST OF
THE LOW CLDS SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR BETWEEN 18-20Z...THEN
LOW END VFR DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS LIFTING TO
LOW END VFR IN EC MN/WC WI...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WC/SW MN
DUE TO MORE HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK AS OF 1215 PM. BY THIS
EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE WIND FLOW BLW 3K...SOME OF THE STRATUS
MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. BEST SCENARIO
IS TO SEE HOW CLDS ERODE THIS AFTN AND SEE HOW A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSRA TRANSLATE ACROSS SE SD...AND INTO SW MN.
KMSP...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO LOW END VFR IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. ESPECIALLY DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WEAK WIND FLOW BLW 3K. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV
1.7K DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE THIS AFTN...THEN MORE EAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND INCREASING SOME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTN...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA EARLY. WIND S BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON THE FOG NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE PCPN CHANCES/THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THE VISIBILITY IS
GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER CLOSER
TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THEREFORE...LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE FOG COULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
REFINED THE PCPN CHANCES AND THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM12/RAP13/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. DO NOT SEE A
THREAT FOR THUNDER UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SINCE THE OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER IS LIMITING PREVENTING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO BUILD SURFACE
BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY
STORM ACTIVITY IS THE SW FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z NAM12 DEVELOPS UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE MUCH LOWER CAPE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT.
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM WALKER NORTHEAST TOWARD ORR. WE ALSO ADDED THE NORTH SHORE TO
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS FORCING WEAKENS.
THE MCV/SHORTWAVE THAT HAD ENHANCED THE SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER
WEAKER WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KEAU AT 08Z WITH A TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 925MB
THETA-E SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO...AND WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE EXPANDED ON THE LOW POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
KEPT MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CONCERN THE STRONG EARLY JUNE SUN WILL
CAUSE SOME CLEARING TODAY...BUT WE ALSO EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WELL TONIGHT WITH KDLH
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE AND KDYT/KSUW ALSO DOWN TO A HALF MILE AS
OF 08Z. WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A MOIST OFF LAKE WIND CONTINUING. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND IT UP
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER PORTIONS WELL INLAND...BUT AS OF 08Z...A
FEW SITES HAD DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. WE KEPT A MENTION OF FOG
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...THEN DECREASED IT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS DRIER FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WORKS DOWN THE LAKE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES TO
LOWER SEVENTIES. ANY CLEAR SPOTS THAT DEVELOP WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OUR EXPECTED HIGHS...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE FROM 68 TO 73. EXPECT AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER DUE TO OFF LAKE WINDS BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND BUT MOVE EWD LATE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
CONVECTION TAPING MORE INTO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE THAN
CAPE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY HAS REALLY COME DOWN IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON A TRAILING WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TUE AND WED...BUT RAINFALL AMTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD INLAND AND COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND 50S
AROUND LS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WARM AIR STARTS TO REALLY PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S LIKELY MON THROUGH WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD GROUPS COVERS THE TERMINALS FROM IFR TO
MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF LIFR NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BEFORE 00Z WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AND HAVE A VCSH MENTION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECTING SOME BR WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 48 62 43 / 20 20 0 10
INL 69 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 72 54 73 50 / 30 30 10 10
HYR 70 51 71 44 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 61 44 63 39 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Forecast has been updated to reflect latest radar and near term
model trends. Initial MCS over Central Missouri has largely
dissipated as it pushed east of the Lake of the Ozarks region. The
other complex of convection over NE Kansas as weakened
considerably this morning, and it appears increasingly likely that
is won`t survive this far south, given increasing
heights/inhibition across the area.
The main play for convection for this afternoon will be the
outflow boundary from the initial round of convection, will
currently stretches from roughly Schell City to Rolla (as of 10:45
AM). This boundary should sink a bit further south through the
remainder of the morning. Right now, it remains questionable
whether inhibition will be too strong/lift too weak to allow
convection to fire this afternoon along the boundary, so have just
maintained a broad 30-40 percent PoP across the northeastern half
or so of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Another quiet morning underway across extreme southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. High clouds have been on the increase
over the past several hours with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 60s
elsewhere. An area of clear skies across south central Missouri
has resulted in radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog
development. This will likely persist through the morning rush
hour.
Convection has once again lit up along/north of a boundary across
portions of Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. To this point, this activity has been mainly cellular in
mode and slow to move. System propagation vectors are quite
sluggish in this region, which explains the slow movement and cell
training. Forward propagation vectors are a bit faster with a
direction toward the east southeast. If the activity to our north
can eventually congeal and develop a cold pool, an acceleration
to the southeast is to be expected. Recent runs of the HRRR have
shown varying solutions, with the most recent runs keeping most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our north, with the
southwestern periphery of the activity clipping the northern
portion of the outlook area later this morning into early this
afternoon. Have included chance PoPs accordingly, though
alterations will likely be necessary to account for mesoscale
trends.
A warm day is on tap for the region. Most areas should warm well
into the 80s. The only exception may be portions of central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks, which have been quite difficult to forecast
for the past few days. If everyone receives even broken sunshine,
80s should not be hard to attain. That said, if clouds can hang on
out east, another day in the 70s is possible.
Heading into tonight, the focus will once again be on thunderstorm
development to our northwest and north. Little change in the upper
pattern is expected and system motion vectors will likely ride the
ridge, keeping our central Missouri counties in a risk for storms
overnight. Depending on how tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) develops and tracks, there is a low risk for a few damaging
wind gusts. At this time, the better risk will be to our north and
northwest, though it is advised to check back to later forecast
updates as mesoscale trends will rule.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. The upper level ridge stays in place through most of
the weekend, breaking down during the first half of next week.
The rainfall forecast Friday through the weekend will be governed
by the exact position of the ridge and the evolution of mesoscale
convective behavior. The better chances for showers/storms will be
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. With the risk for rain shunting to
the southwest with time as the ridge begins to weaken. The risk
for severe weather will end up being a "game time decision" as
much depends on how individual MCSs track and what (if any)
outflow boundaries linger across the area. As a result, keeping
tabs with the new Day 1 outlooks will be key to assess
instability and any resultant risk for (mainly) wind.
A cold front moves into the region early next week and looks to
linger near the area for a few days. As a result, chance PoPs have
been included with this forecast each day.
Temperatures will be above average and have bust potential for any
days that see more cloud coverage. Readings will edge back toward
normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
Mid and high level cloud cover will remain in place over the area
for much of the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm chances will generally
remain north and east of the terminals, though thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out 1. later this afternoon at SGF and BBG, though
chances are too low attm for TAF inclusion, and 2. early tomorrow
morning as an expected complex of storms drops south toward the
area. Chances of convection affecting JLN and SGF tomorrow morning
are high enough for a PROB30 group attm, though overall confidence
in timing, track, and strength of convection late tonight and
early tomorrow morning is rather low.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE
MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE
LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY
15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS
NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE
BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB.
THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE
NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS
3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE
FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN
PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO
STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF.
BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND
CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING
ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS
A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH
PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO
LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL
COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE
IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS
OF ANDRES OFF BAJA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6
/TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORMS FIRED JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF NORTH PLATTE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DRIFTING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENT TERMINAL AREA FORECAST
DOES NOT MENTION MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
MODELS GREATLY VARYING LOCATIONS. THUS FELT IT WILL BE BETTER TO
AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. DO HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING AND INCLUDED IN TAF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DUE TO THE
IMPINGING UPPER LOW MIGRATING ENE OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM. LOW
LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR MAY AID
IN A BROKEN LINE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
DUE TO OVERALL LIGHT COLUMN WINDS AND STEERING FLOW AS THIS
UPPER FEATURES TRAVERSES...STORM MOTION MAY BE SLUGGISH BUT
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH. THE LIGHT COLUMN WINDS WILL
HINDER OVERALL POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...BUT SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
DWINDLE. MINIMUMS TONIGHT MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S BEHIND A WEAK
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND LINGERING CLOUDS....NEAR 70 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT
THE REGION MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST
TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE
REGION WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG LIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORCING WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND BACK UP ABOVE THAT VALUE ON
SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN AREA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE CAN DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK 5H TROUGHING ON SUN WILL FILL MON AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES FLAT/PROGRESSIVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THAT SAID LINGERING MOISTURE AND NO REAL CAPPING DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CARRY SLT CHC TO CHC POP SUN/MON. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS 5H TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THE 5H TROUGH MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TUE INTO
WED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LEFT BEHIND...FORMING A SEMI CUTOFF LOW.
THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE STRONGER AND MEANDERS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST. EITHER SOLUTION
RESULTS IN THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH POP
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. INHERITED FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE
POP WISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SO PLAN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW
INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE INLAND WITH EQUALLY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WAVERING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL 2-3 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS
WITH A LIGHT CHOP NE-E WIND CHOP. ISOLATED TSTMS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM WATERS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF WATER SPOUTS INTO EARLY EVENING BENEATH ANY DEVELOPING
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WINDS WILL
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT DURING THE
PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE
CONDITIONS FOR A NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AN SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SUN WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY MON AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUE WITH WINDS MON BEING DRIVEN
MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. MODIFIED SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TUE BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT ON WIND FIELD. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE UPPER LOW
EASING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE ASSOCIATED AROUND AND BENEATH THE FEATURE. MORNING CLOUD COVER
HAS HELD SURFACE WARMING TO MINIMUM VALUES. AS A RESULT NO NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
HOWEVER ARE BEGINNING TO EXPAND PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY WHICH WILL
HELP STEEPEN COLUMN LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE BY 18Z ALONG
THE LENGTH OF OUR COASTAL INTERIOR SEPARATELY FORMED FROM THE COOL
POOL OVER INTERIOR SC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL ALSO
FORM BENEATH THE UPPER SWIRL ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SC...WHICH MAY
EXHIBIT LITTLE MOTION OVERALL. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER INTERIOR SC. MAXIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP
SLIGHTLY SINCE PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS ALREADY DEBUTING IN MANY
AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S MORE LIKELY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
TEXAS. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE
LEAVING ONLY THE USUAL CULPRITS FOR CONVECTION...THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY
AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE SATURDAY. I HAVE DECREASED POPS
BASICALLY ACROSS THE BOARD. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT. THERE MAY
BE SOME OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WITH THESE FEATURES BUT TIMING
OBVIOUSLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO COMFORTABLE
RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN
ELONGATED RIDGE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE FLOW CERTAINLY AT 700MB AND AT TIMES AT 850MB
WILL BE FROM THE WEST...WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW FOR THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IF REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE
WITH 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AT LEAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A FRONT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA APPEARS TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY. REGARDING POPS...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS
UNTIL THE FRONT LATE THUS ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART TRENDING UP
LATE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LEANED FAIRLY HEAVY ON THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE HEAD INLAND.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE WEAK COLD CORE ALOFT MAY KICK A FEW
INDEPENDENT SHOWER BY EARLY EVENING. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER DARK WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 118 PM THURSDAY...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND IS HEADING OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACKING
AROUND TO THE NORTH AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SURGE LINE
WORKS ITS WAY OFF THE COAST. UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS...BUT MAY INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FT NEARSHORE AND 3 FT OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE IN A COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND A TOUCH OF
SHORTER PERIOD LOCAL WIND WAVES. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A VERY MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND
TEN KNOTS. THIS DUE TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS DEFINED FLOW WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAVE ESSENTIALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT THE
LANDBREEZE WILL DICTATE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EARLY SATURDAY
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
CERTAINLY REFLECTIVE OF THIS BENIGN PATTERN WITH 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS MOST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN LOW WITH A FEW MORE
THREE FOOTERS LATER SUNDAY BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL 1-3 WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
915 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING. ALSO
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ADJUSTING DOWN
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS MOST OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN CAL AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL IDEA MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD IN.
HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD STILL TRIGGER AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER US WITH
NEXT TO ZERO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE UMPQUA BASING FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS, THEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 21 AND 3Z IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT, THURSDAY, 3 JUNE 2015...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND CHOPPY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AREAS
OF GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CONDITIONS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
STILL TRENDING NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND
PERSISTS. ISOLATED GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING AREAS OF GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
MAINLY FOR WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE FORECAST ON WEDENSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MODELS VARYING ON WHETHER NORTH WINDS MAY WEAKEN OR REMAIN STRONG
DURING THAT PERIOD. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOWS
UP VERY CLEARLY ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THIS LOW BROUGHT SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVED 0.20" TO 0.60" ACCORDING TO RAIN GAGE
REPORTS FROM MESOWEST.
THIS MORNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED SUCH THAT IT IS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE JET
STREAM SUPPORT HAS BEEN YIELDING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
WESTERN MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES THAT HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE THIS MORNING AND
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SAME AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS PROVIDE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT WEST SIDE RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE,
THOUGH EXPECT IT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
IN SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS 850MB
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES REACH -2C TO -4C. BY 03Z MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO YIELD
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TO SQUASH MOST, IF NOT ALL, CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING PRODUCING CELLS. THIS SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE PREVALENT ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO
BRING GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW AND A RESULTANT HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEDFORD NEARING 100F AND THE
SOMES AND SAWYERS BARS AREAS LIKELY SURPASSING 100F. DETAILS
RELATED TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CHANGE EACH DAY, BUT
THE GENERAL SUMMARY IS THAT SURGES IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OREGON CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ENOUGH TO BRING A
NORTHWARD SURGE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A
COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. AS IS
USUALLY TRUE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE SPRING, THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTION OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN DOES THE GFS40.
BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022-618.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
$$
MAP/MAP/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW STORMS IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVING INTO EASTERN SD
AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I90. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE VICNITY OF I90
AND I29. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
NEXT CONCERN IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CELL MOTION COULD BRING WEAKENING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY FAIRLY LOW...40 PECENT OR LESS...SINCE THERE IS STILL
A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO I80 BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
LASTLY HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR I90 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE HRRR AND MANY HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY. ESSENTIALLY...THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED COMPLES IN NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WORKING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TEENS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE VARIOUS MODELS EXHIBIT SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER AND WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAD SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CORRESPONDING SHORT WAVES. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIKELY POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
RUNNING ALONG OUR MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTY ZONES. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO ND AND NORTHWEST MN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE STUBBORNLY MOVES UP AND OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO OUR ZONES WEST OF I 29...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ARE PLACED IN NEBRASKA. THE TWO
WAVES SHOULD PHASE IN SOMEWHAT AND CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA MINUS OUR EXTREME WEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
LIKELY WILL NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH THAT
MANY AREAS SHOULD GET WET. THE CRUX OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
WARRANTED SATURDAY EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29...
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN NORTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DO PHASE IN BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IA AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN BEFORE THE WHOLE THING EXITS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HARD TO LOOK AT THOUGH
BECAUSE THE GFS IS TOO FAST...AND THE NAM LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE
TOO HIGH MAKING CAPE VALUES TOO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF STABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH KEEP THE 1000 J/KG AND HIGHER ML
CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH 925-850MB
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 OR -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE ALL TOLD AGREE WITH SPC`S CURRENT
DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER A
NORTHWEST WIND. AFTER SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL
THE VERY TAIL END OF IT BY NEXT THURSDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY
WARM JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DISPLAYING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +24C IN OUR REGION
WHICH WILL GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT LOWER 90S IN OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO COOL...AND WARMED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS
OF 85 TO 90. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH THE RAIN THREAT INCREASING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
HAVE TIMED BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING...BUT IN BAND OF
SHOWERS CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE FURTHER
EAST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER MENTION AT KSUX AS END OF THE
LINE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE METRO.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS NW MO WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS OF NOW...HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS
AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DO SO. 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT
FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COLD POOL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SOLE FORCING MECHANISM AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN LIGHT RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TODAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EACH NIGHT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
HAS DIED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AHEAD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR SHOW THEM REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL MODELS SHOW
THAT TONIGHT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS MAY MOVE AS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN 20 POPS FRIDAY FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. READINGS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THUS EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
30S AND 40S BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS. EXPECT AT LEAST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CONVECTION. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE BUT MODELS DO
SHOW WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH EITHER BEHIND THE WEAKENING
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BY
MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FURTHER.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
HOW MUCH DEVELOPS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM EITHER GETTING TO
90 OR NOT.
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT BOTH SHOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD AT LEAST IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S POSSIBLY LOWER IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT ALL BUT MEM. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PUBLIC DISCUSSION ABOVE...IT APPEARS THE TSRA COMPLEX OVER MO
WON/T LIKELY MAKE INTO THE JBR AREA BY 22Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
MONITOR.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED MUCH IN THE
AREA...THEREFORE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TS AND EVEN VCTS. THE
BIGGEST HEADLINE DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOG CLOSER TO
DAYLIGHT TOMORROW. CSV SHOULD DROP TO MVFR VIS AND EVEN SOME TEMPO
IFR. DROPPED CKV DOWN TO MVFR AND LEFT BNA VFR. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OR CALM THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR TODAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE EAST
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK.
REAGAN
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR IS ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING INTO MVFR ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 17Z TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
UPDATE...12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING
NEAR AND NORTH OF SAT-DRT LINE. SOME PATCHES MAY WORK TOWARDS THE
AUS TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AROUND 15Z ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST...AND AROUND 17Z OVER THE RIO GRANDE
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCT CU FIELD
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT AUS/SAT AND TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THU AFTERNOON AT DRT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT NOT
FOR LONG. THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE LOWS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM BEFORE THEY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE THAN
THE ECM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN FAR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENTLY HURRICANE BLANCA...IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GETS SHEAR OFF AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 67 90 / 0 0 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 93 71 91 / - 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 89 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND RIDGING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVES OF
NOTE TOPPING THE RIDGE INCLUDE: ONE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND TWO OTHERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
THESE LATTER SHORTWAVES WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET... CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THESE WERE ALSO ON
A WARM FRONT SET UP NEAR I-70. CLOSER TO HOME...DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT SAME SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS DECK IS
FINALLY MIXING OUT. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C PER 12Z RAOBS COMBINED
WITH THE SUN HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT UP INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFY. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE IMPACT TO OUR AREA FROM THIS UPPER FLOW CHANGE IS TO PUT US IN
MORE NORTHWEST FLOW...FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND THE BUILD IN OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THUS A DRY
FORECAST WOULD SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE TWO CONCERNS.
THE FIRST IS THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...
LIKELY INITIATING CONVECTION ON ITS NOSE WITH AID FROM THE NEBRASKA
SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MESOSCALE
MODELS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS LOOKS LIKELY...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD SAY THE MCS WOULD TRAVEL INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FROM
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH WANT TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
STORMS NORTH OF THE MCS. THESE APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS PUSHING EAST. HAVE HELD ONTO 15-25 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH ANOTHER MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION...THE 04.12Z
HIRES-ARW...KEEPS THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SEEMS
VERY PLAUSIBLE.
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES UP...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL ABOUT 2C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WITH
MORE SUN ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS
THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEARING OUT FRIDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN WI SHOULD ALLOW
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. 50S ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...CERTAINLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WITH IT...WITH SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE 04.12Z GFS AND 5KM DOWNSCALED NAM
ALREADY WANT TO SPREAD CONVECTION INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ITS WORTH NOTING...THOUGH...THAT A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH FOR
PRECIPITATION...THUS THE FORECAST 60-70 CHANCES...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST THE STORMS TO SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
WI. MEANWHILE...AN MCS COULD EASILY FORM IN WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY
EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE 04.12Z ECMWF AND ITS PAST RUNS. CORFIDI
VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD SUPPORT
THE MCS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST IA...THUS THE SPLIT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
A DEEP TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT BEING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE 04.12Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER TROUGH...HAVE SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN WI. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO 12-14C. THESE ARE STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER RESUMES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AT LEAST 14-18C...
BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN FACT...IF THE 04.12Z EC
PANS OUT WITH 850MB TEMPS TRYING TO REACH 18-20C LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME PLACES COULD PUSH THE UPPER 80S...MAKING IT THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ITS COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM AND REFLECTED AS SUCH IN THE
FORECAST. THE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS NEW TROUGHING MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH 7 PLUS DAYS OUT...LATE
NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WERE SLOWLY MIXING/
ERODING THE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH THE CLOUD
DECK AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT BY 20Z. CLOUDS THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SCT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FAVOR SOME BR ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME.
ADDED SOME 5SM BR TO KLSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING BEING MORE
SHELTERED IN THE MS VALLEY...WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF 5SM BR AT KRST
WITH A BIT MORE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS. CONVECTION THE
NEXT 24HRS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MORE HUMID WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT WITH A STRONGER BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER AND ALMOST BLOCKY SOUTHERN
STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS...THEN SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE BRANCHES WL OCCUR. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GENERAL WNWLY UPR FLOW ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...FM A BROAD RIDGE OUT WEST TO A TROF OVER THE
ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS DURING THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS GENERATING
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER NW...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE GROWING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOME OF THESE BREAKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...AND CLOUD TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE EVENING...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH IT. THINK BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ARRIVE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING...SO TOOK
OUT OF THE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MUGGY UNTIL THE WINDS
KICK UP. LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND DRY AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE INROADS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE BRISK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH AROUND 70 NORTH AND
EAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOWERED MINS A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. KEPT SKYCON LOW FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLDS ROTG ARND THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THEN BECOMES DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHRTWV CROSSES THE
RGN. THE SYSTEM WL LIKLEY DRAW IN AT LEAST SOME ENERGY FM THE
WEAKENING SRN STREAM...AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A CYCLONE ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SET
UP FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY LATE SAT NGT/SUN MORNING AS LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED ACRS THE
AREA. ONCE THAT SHIFTS E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. BUT
THAT WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW
MUCH DEBRIS CLDS LINGER FM THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. WITH A LOT
OF UNKNOWNS...JUST OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED
FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
MILD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN AS SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNWLY UPR FLOW CROSS THE
RGN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THEN AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC