Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/03/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 905 AM MST MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND 01/12Z 500 MB HEIGHTS INDICATED
THE NOSE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...BOOKENDED BY A TROF MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON THE E
COAST AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWINGING ONSHORE NEAR THE PAC NW
STATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CUMULUS OVER THE
CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF COCHISE COUNTY. MANY LOCATIONS WERE QUITE WARM
ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH 01/15Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. IN FACT...THE
01/15Z KTUS TEMPERATURE OF 86 F IS 6 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THAT SAID...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF SE AZ. SOME ELEVATED W TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
BASIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 600 MB MAY
PRODUCE SOME BUILDUPS MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LATEST RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF DO KEEP PRECIP NORTHEAST OF THIS CWA...HOWEVER
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY AREAS OF
PRECIP WHICH DO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR VERY NEAR TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO WELL.
THEREFORE...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL
EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING SKC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY BETWEEN 01/20Z AND 02/03Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 01/17Z...AND
THEN WLY/NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TIL 02/04Z.
THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND
WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 02/04Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TODAY AND THEN EAST OF TUCSON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL AND
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON A SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY
ENTER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRENCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 218 AM MST MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINES ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL AND
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON A SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY
ENTER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL
EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING SKC. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...OR EAST OF A KDUG-
KSAD LINE BETWEEN 01/20Z AND 02/03Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 01/17Z...AND THEN
WLY/NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TIL 02/04Z...
WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 02/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TODAY AND THEN EAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 222 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Drier weather
for Tues-Wed. Tropical moisture may impact our region later this
week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level trough continues to sit over far northwestern CA and
into the Pacific NW. Much of the precipitation so far today has
been just outside of our forecast area to the west and north.
Radar imagery shows that there have been some brief, isolated
light showers over the coastal terrain in Shasta & Tehama
counties, but nothing significant. The HRRR & WRF ARW high-res
models still in good agreement that any shower activity later this
evening will be mostly within Shasta County, especially between
5-10 pm.

The onshore gradient looks stronger early Tuesday morning than
it was today. Expect a better chance for marine stratus to push through
the delta and possibly into the Sac metro region tomorrow morning.

The upper trough will pull northward on Tuesday & Wednesday so not
much rain is expected for our CWA except for an isolated shower or
two in the mountains, again mostly within Shasta County. Daytime
highs on Tuesday will be about 1-4 degrees below normal across
interior NorCal with valley highs in the low to mid 80s...delta &
foothills in the 70s, mountains in the 50s to low 70s. Wednesday
temperatures will be fairly similar with a few degrees of warming
in the Northern Sacramento valley such that the Redding - Red
Bluff vicinity could be in the upper 80s.

The big weather change this week will begin on Thursday when
another low drops southward over CA. There will be slight cooling
and increased instability on Thursday. There will be a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms across our CWA (valley and
higher terrain). The other interesting variable is whether any
extra moisture from Hurrican Andres may push northward while the
low is over our region. This could enhance the chances for decent
precipitation. However, that variable is harder to predict at this
point so confidence is still low on the Thursday details. JBB

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models in decent agreement that upper level wave will drop
southward across CA and close off near the SoCal coast by Friday.
Closed low is then progged to spin across the state into early
next week. Latest model runs, and GFS most aggressively so, hinting
at subtropical moisture tap and decent instability with this system which
would be enough to generate daily convection. GFS ensembles
showing PWATS in excess of 1 inch which is above 99th percentile
for this time of year. Highest chances for now look to be across
the mountains as typical with this sort of pattern, but might even
be enough for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
valley at some point during the period. Confidence in this
occurring is fairly low at this point but will definitely be
something to watch as system is better resolved. Depending on the low
position, could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees from Friday to the weekend
and will hinge on resulting cloud and precip coverage but will
generally be close to normal. CEO


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected for most of the period. A few showers
possible across northern mountains/valley this afternoon and
evening with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible. Coverage will be
highly scattered. Marine layer has mixed out from this morning,
but still may see some stratus filter from the Delta into the Valley
(mainly SAC and MHR) early Tuesday morning with brief period of
MVFR cigs possible. Winds tonight and Tuesday will generally be
below 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 729 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Temperatures
warm back to around average for early June by mid-week.

&&

.Discussion...
Made some minor updates to this morning`s forecast. Onshore flow
has notably decreased early this morning. The onshore pressure
gradient from San Francisco to Sacramento (SFO-SAC) is only 0.6 mb
compared to the 2.4 mb it was 24 hours ago. Looking at satellite
imagery, marine stratus has only pushed into the delta with a few
low clouds developing south of the Sac Metro region. At this
point, doesn`t look like a strong enough push to warrant mention
of drizzle in the Sacramento vicinity so have removed that. Have
also removed slight chance of precipitation for the Sierra and
parts of the valley this morning. The HRRR and WRF hi-res models
indicate that isolated showers won`t develop until later this
afternoon/early evening for those regions. Any chance of precip
this morning/early afternoon should be limited to the Coastal
range and into the Northern Sacramento Valley (primarily Shasta
County). Otherwise, the forecast of cooler temperatures today is
on track as this weak low moves inland. JBB

.Previous Discussion...
Strong onshore flow that began Sunday afternoon with
the approach of the upper trough has continued overnight and
ushered cooler air inland across NorCal. The greatest cooling has
been over the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and in the
foothills and northern Sierra where temperatures are generally
5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Surface pressure
gradients peaked earlier in the night and are now trending lower,
and winds in many areas have lost their gustiness over the past
couple of hours.

The strong short-wave that initiated showers and thunderstorms
over northwest California Sunday evening is moving up into Oregon.
The upper trough lingers over the region into Tuesday with several
weaker waves embedded in the westerly flow, continuing the chance
for a few showers mainly across the northern third of the forecast
area. The northern mountains may see a few late day thunderstorms
as well.

The marine layer has deepened to over 3000 feet overnight leading
one to believe that we`ll see some stratus make it inland into the
Sacramento area around sunrise. However, T/Td spreads remain quite
wide and humidities are actually lower this morning in the
Sacramento region compared to Sunday morning, so inland stratus is
in doubt.

The trough weakens over the area Tuesday and Wednesday allowing
temperatures to warm up. Only limited mountain convection is likely
both days. Another closed low is forecast to drop southward into
the region on Thursday bringing another increase in showers and
thunderstorms over mainly the mountains.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Extended models are in good agreement with bringing a closed low
southward through the region and lingering over SoCal or offshore
on Friday. The jetstream redirects it`s core over Canada this
weekend and bypasses the Low, resulting in only subtle movement
to the northeast back over central California and into Nevada by
Monday. This dynamic forcing will generate convection, especially
afternoons and evenings this weekend and into Monday. Precipitable
waters become fairly high by this weekend, so thunderstorms may
produce some heavy rainfall with abundant small hail at higher
elevations. NCEP GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport is showing 1
to 1.5 inches. Depending on the Low position, storm motion could
be slow and aid in increased rainfall amounts over smaller areas.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Generally VFR conditions except stratus spreading through
southern Solano co. and potentially into central Sac co. (SAC and
MHR) between 13Z and 16Z. Marine layer near 3000 ft but mixing out
a bit with cigs abnormally high at SUU between 020 and 025 this
morn. Better likelihood of stratus into the Valley (SAC and MHR)
early Tue morn.       JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 1012 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

OVERALL WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TONIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON
MIDSLOPES AND RIDGES.

RADAR ECHOES ARE EVIDENT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS EVENING,
BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. THE ONLY OBSERVATION WITH ANY RAIN WAS AT KNFL,
BUT IT WAS ONLY A TRACE. A FEW SITES IN THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE OF NEVADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FROM THE VIRGA
SHOWERS.

HAVE EXPIRED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ON TIME TONIGHT AS
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PYRAMID LAKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE/LOW IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE (BRINGING
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING COPIOUS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SOME
HIGH-BASED AND MODEST CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. AS FAR AS WINDS, THEY ARE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AS THE THERMAL PACKING
INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BASIN
AND RANGE. WINDS ON LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE ARE SLOW TO PICK
UP, BUT THEY SHOULD DO SO SHORTLY AS GRADIENTS INCREASE AND
ENCOURAGE MIXING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING, THE HRRR AND NAM STILL
SHOW MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF RENO. THIS MAKES SENSE AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTINUE TO WORK ON
COOLING AND DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY ANEMIC, SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 60-70 DEGREES SO ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (OR VIRGA) COULD EASILY DROP WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD DROP WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF THEY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY TO BE MEASURABLE GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION AND VERY DRY
LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY, THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH MODERATE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS GOING AS THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
FOR PYRAMID LAKE ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH (AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE
NORTH) WITH NO UPPER FORCING OF NOTE AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY
ALOFT TRAPPED OVER OREGON.

TUESDAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT DECREASES AND THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK BRUSH-BY
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND CUTTING OFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PROVIDES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION.

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE DUE TO HURRICANE ANDRES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
PUSH UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM
ANDRES NEXT WEEKEND AND BRINGING IT UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WE
ARE NOT FOLLOWING THIS FORECAST FOR NOW AND KEEPING WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE GFS MODEL IS NOTORIOUS FOR NOT FORECASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WELL. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
ALSO LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
SUIT. HOON

AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/NV WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OVER 50KTS. CHANCES OF TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
EAST REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ071-072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN UTAH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO KEEPS REGENERATING AFTER
SUNSET...APPEARS TO BE SOME FORCING MECHANISM THAT KEEP THESE
SHOWERS ONGOING. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN
COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A VERY WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS HELPING ADD A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OVER
RIDGES...WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. THE STRONGER CELL OVER NORTHEAST
UT SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY AND SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ADJACENT UINTA BASIN. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WILL TRAVEL EAST AND ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY...CO THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS TERRAIN INFLUENCE SO EXPECT
THE STORMS TO BE LESS INTENSE. THE REST OF THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER LITTLE WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A FEW OF THEM.

THE CENTRAL AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY. A NOTICABLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND PAC NW
TROUGH INTERACT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LEFT END (SOUTHWEST FLOW) OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
REIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE WEEK CONTINUES...KEEPING
DRIER AIR AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHICH WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCE. THE GFS, EC, AND CMC ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE PROGGING
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO GET CAUGHT IN THIS DOMINENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH ALL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE THERE COULD BE MAJOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOUDY AND WET
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1007 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS OVER CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THEME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
IS SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TODAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION HOWEVER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER CT INTO NORTHERN MA. PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...YIELDING BEST OVERRUNNING ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-NORTHERN
MA. THUS SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...PWATS OF
1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES PROVIDES THE RISK FOR A HEAVY DOWNPOUR AT ANY
TIME.

TEMPS...COLD AIR DAMMING IN EARLY JUNE? THAT/S EXACTLY THE SETUP
WE HAVE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND 1030+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS COOL NE FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY CHILLY OCEAN TEMPS IN THE L50S IN MASS
BAY AND UPSTREAM IN GULF OF ME. THUS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH PERHAPS ONLY U40S HIGHER TERRAIN! MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR JUNE 1ST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS VERY WELL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLED THIS IDEA
VERY WELL...BUT THE TIMING NEEDED SOME TWEAKING.

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST THE RAINFALL TIMING...AND
TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...W.

====================================================================

SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THANK TO HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE
HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND
SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY.
IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED.

ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z.

OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY.

SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING
QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES
WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY A GOOD
FORECAST FOR TODAY. SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW RISK OF
ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN CT AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.
MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUE. RAINFALL NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY
THUNDER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH
COASTS OF MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE
ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE.
LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 744 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH AREA
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND BAND MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. FIT WELL WITH
THE HRRR DEPICTION AND EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST WERE ALSO LOWERED INTO LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY. ONCE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH....A LULL IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN
NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

WHILE SFC INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED TODAY...SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. IF IT MANAGES TO
LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA...TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TUE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TUE...SO
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS RAIN COULD HOWEVER BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL
FLOW THEN REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
KEEPING THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WITH NO BLOCKING PATTERN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE
AND AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

GENERALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS...
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

E-NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT TODAY. E-NE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BACK TO THE N-NNE LATE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING
TO 5-10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FT. INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS REMAINS THROUGH
15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CONDITIONS FALL BELOW BEFORE THEN.
NO CHANGES TO SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF ELY FLOW 15-20 KT PLUS INCOMING 3-FT SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO
4-6 FT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST
INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE
AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF SHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES YESTERDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH FELL OVER A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 00Z WED AND ALSO INCLUDED THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT WHERE
SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED. THESE AREAS ARE
NOW PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE
EVE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THROUGH SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-
     178.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MET
NEAR TERM...24/MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MET



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 729 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEPING CONDITIONS
COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO MOVE ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO
SEA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLED THIS
IDEA VERY WELL...BUT THE TIMING NEEDED SOME TWEAKING.

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST THE RAINFALL TIMING...AND
TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THANK TO
HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE
WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND SHOWALTERS DROP
BELOW 0.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY.
IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED.

ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z.

OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY.

SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING
QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES
WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY
THUNDER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH
COASTS OF MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE
ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE.
LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 507 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN CAPTURING THIS WELL THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND USED IT AS THE BASIS FOR THE POP FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. A
LULL IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS AFTN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN
NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

WHILE SFC INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED TODAY...SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. IF IT MANAGES TO
LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA...TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TUE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TUE...SO
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS RAIN COULD HOWEVER BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL
FLOW THEN REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
KEEPING THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WITH NO BLOCKING PATTERN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE
AND AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

GENERALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIFR IN SOME OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z. -SHRA BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 11Z. A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

E/NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT TODAY. NE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND ARE REACHING SCA LEVELS LONGER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSE SCA. THIS GOES THROUGH
15Z...ALTHOUGH WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN. SEAS HAVE ALSO
BUILT TO 5 FT AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES TO SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ELY FLOW 15-20 KT PLUS INCOMING
3-FT SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO 4-6 FT. GUSTS ARE ALSO CLOSE TO 25
KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST
INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE
AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF SHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES YESTERDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH FELL OVER A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 00Z WED AND ALSO INCLUDED THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT WHERE
SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED. THESE AREAS ARE
NOW PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE
EVE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THROUGH SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-
     178.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 542 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
LEAD TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
CREATING QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE HAD A SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
INTO THE 80`S AND SUNNY SKIES. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE 60`S WITH LOW THICK CLOUDS IN
PLACE. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE THE FRONT AND IN THE REGIONS WITH
THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RAMP-UP. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF, HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH
TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND FOR SOME
BACKBUILDING OF STORMS INTO THE DELMARVA AS WELL. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AN INCH OR TWO, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A STIFF ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES HAVE A CORRECT HANDLE OF THE
TRENDS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME QPF UNDER
1/2 INCH. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER TRENDS IN THE MET/MAV THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES WILL GO A TOUCH LOWER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN THOSE GUIDANCE SETS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A
RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK, AS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BASICALLY WASH OUT ONCE THE ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR RDG, ABE AND TTN... MAINLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
MILES AS WELL. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR ILG,ACY, MIV,PNE AND PHL...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS BUT DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR AND IFR
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT AT ACY AND OTHER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH MANY OF THE WIND OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING GUSTS TO/OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. A BATCH OF TSTMS APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS FURTHER WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
FOR MAINE STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SMW`S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT WITHOUT UNFAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES, CAPPED WIND GUSTS TO UNDER 25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT IN OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD SCA HEADLINE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
REACHING CRITERIA IN THIS MARGINAL SETUP.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLD.

SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 347 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
LEAD TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
CREATING QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE HAD A SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
INTO THE 80`S AND SUNNY SKIES. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE 60`S WITH LOW THICK CLOUDS IN
PLACE. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE THE FRONT AND IN THE REGIONS WITH
THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RAMP-UP. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF, HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH
TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND FOR SOME
BACKBUILDING OF STORMS INTO THE DELMARVA AS WELL. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AN INCH OR TWO, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A STIFF ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES HAVE A CORRECT HANDLE OF THE
TRENDS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME QPF UNDER
1/2 INCH. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER TRENDS IN THE MET/MAV THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES WILL GO A TOUCH LOWER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN THOSE GUIDANCE SETS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A
RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK, AS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BASICALLY WASH OUT ONCE THE ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR RDG, ABE AND TTN... MAINLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
MILES AS WELL. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR ILG,ACY, MIV,PNE AND PHL...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS BUT DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR AND IFR
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT AT ACY AND OTHER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING WITH THE SCA FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENCY AROUND FIVE FEET WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW. WAVEWATCH MAY BE ABOUT A FOOT LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA WITH SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TILL 10Z TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN LONGER. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EASTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS THIS
EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT WITHOUT UNFAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES, CAPPED WIND GUSTS TO UNDER 25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT IN OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD SCA HEADLINE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
REACHING CRITERIA IN THIS MARGINAL SETUP.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLD.

SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAVE LED TO A THICK LOW CLOUD DECK AND COOLER TERMEPRATURES.A
SUNNY SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY REGIONS IN THE DELMARVA
WILL GO WELL INTO THE 80`S WITH AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO
NORTHERN NJ STAYING INTO THE 60`S.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TODAY. SEVERAL WRF`S THE HRRR AND RAP ALL SUGGEST
NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WHERE DOES IT SET
UP? OUR THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA NEAR PHL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NJ. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO
EXPAND THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN INTO DELAWARE. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHEAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED.  BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S.  PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM RDG TO PHL FURTHER
EAST. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS HAS BROUGHT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS
FROM ILG TO MIV AND ACY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN IFR AND EVEN VFR THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z FROM PHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1008 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAVE LED TO A THICK LOW CLOUD DECK AND COOLER TERMEPRATURES.A
SUNNY SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY REGIONS IN THE DELMARVA
WILL GO WELL INTO THE 80`S WITH AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO
NORTHERN NJ STAYING INTO THE 60`S.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TODAY. SEVERAL WRF`S THE HRRR AND RAP ALL SUGGEST
NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WHERE DOES IT SET
UP? OUR THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA NEAR PHL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NJ. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED SOUTHEAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED.  BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S.  PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM RDG TO PHL FURTHER
EAST. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS HAS BROUGHT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS
FROM ILG TO MIV AND ACY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN IFR AND EVEN VFR THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELVOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z FROM PHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-012>022-
     025>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 407 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMPLICATED FCST THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM.  A
CDFNT WAS SLOWLY MOVG SWD. N OF THE FNT, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH A NE WIND.  EXPECT GENLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN THESE
AREAS.  HOWEVER, MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS SAW HVY RAIN ON SUNDAY, SO
EVEN STEADY RAIN CUD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS TODAY.

ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, AND WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES BTWN 1.5 AND 2 AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S), DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED SHEAR, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDER.

EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP IS THE BIG QUESTION.  THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION AS WELL.  MOST GUID AGREES
IT WILL MAKE IT THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.  THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION OF A SFC LOW ALG THE FRONT MOVG FROM SW TO NE DURG
THE LATE AFTN AS WELL.  THIS CUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP.

WPC GUID AS WELL AS HRRR PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM NERN
MD THRU SERN PA AND THEN INTO CNTRL NJ.  CONFIDENCE N AND S OF THAT
LINE IS LESS.  HOWEVER, SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED DECENT PRECIP
ON SUN, SO WILL ISSUE FFA ALG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND JUST NW AND SE.
IT IS PSBL IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED.  BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S.  PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST.  CONDS RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR ACRS
THE AREA.  FOR KABE/KRDG, EXPECT GENLY MVFR/IFR THRU THE PD, BUT
THERE CUD BE SOME PDS OF VFR.  THERE WILL BE SCT SHRA AND AFTN TSRA.

FOR EVERYONE ELSE.  EXPECT MAINLY VFR, AFTER SOME MVFR ERLY THIS
MRNG.  THERE WILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA DURG THE DAY WHICH CUD LWR
CIGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN.  THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT.

FOR KABE/KRDG/KTTN EXPECT A GENLY E TO NE WIND 10 KT OR LESS.

FOR KPNE/KPHL/KILG EXPECT A S WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE TO E
DURG THE AFTN.

FOR KMIV AND KACY...SHUD GENLY STAY S TO SE THRU THE PD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ008>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 817 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...

EARLIER HVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR HAVE WEAKENED. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH REGARDS
TO HVY RAIN/STORMS ARRIVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A FEW MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING LATE, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THE COASTAL
HVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS STAY JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY WEST/NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND STAY OUT OF THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINAL SITES. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS ON SW WINDS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO SOLID MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOMETIME AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AND MOST LIKELY AFFECTING
EAST COAST SITES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT DRYING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST, BUT TOO SOON AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INDICATE IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO WELL OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. GREATEST PWATS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH AMOUNTS AOA 2" PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND NASA SPORT IMAGES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DECENT
VORT MAX WAS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MOSTLY
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING,
HOWEVER WITH LIFT INCREASING AS THE SHRTWV NEARS THE PENINSULA,
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE PM AND THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
EAST AND THE GREATER PWATS WILL COME WITH IT OVERNIGHT. WITH
MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM SW TO NE, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, MAY SETUP RIGHT ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. LIKE YESTERDAY,
THE ECMWF PLACES THE QPF MAX OFFSHORE, WHERE THE GFS, WHICH MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, PUTS SOMEWHAT GREATER QPF
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF PRECIP PROBS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS HEAVY AMOUNTS. THUS, OP GFS DOESN`T HAVE
MUCH SUPPORT AMONG THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE FOR WED. THE
BEST CHC FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR URBAN FLOODING WOULD COME WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BE QUITE
DIFFICULT CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME PWAT VALUES WILL BE OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL EASILY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH POPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE H3 LOW WILL DEEPEN AGAIN AND RELOAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FULCRUM BETWEEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/HVY
RAINFALL OR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY ALBEIT WEAK BY LATE WEEKEND,
THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WITH COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS/SEABREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS. THE PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE OVER TEXAS TRIES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND JOIN FORCES WITH A CLOSED H5
HIGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, FORCING THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH.

MARINE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM, AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE YUCATAN THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
VARIABLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A
BIT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WED AND THURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTH
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT 5-15 KTS. MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  73  89 /  40  70  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  84  74  88 /  60  80  50  50
MIAMI            72  84  74  89 /  60  80  50  50
NAPLES           69  85  74  89 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
01/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA POSITIONED SOLIDLY BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MEAN RIDGING CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH GOES-EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING A
TONGUE OF PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES POISED TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE CAP FORECAST TO WEAKEN INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80 TO LOWER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WELL-DEFINED LAND BREEZE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE
STEADILY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE TWO SURFACE
FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
OR OUTFLOW INDUCED BY GULF COAST SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON
WITH A RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL FOCI
PRESENT TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. INDEED, BOTH THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RAP AND H3R SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CRASH WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE AS MIXING INTENSIFIES, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AVAILABLE FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DESPITE HIGH PWATS. FOR THIS REASON, IT IS NOT EXACTLY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OR EVEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY POINTING TOWARDS LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THEN PREVIOUS
RUNS WITH BOTH THE RAP AND H3R KEEPING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
CONFINED WELL INLAND TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ITSELF AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TODAY.
GIVEN THE VARIOUS CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VALUES WILL BE
LOWERED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA MAY VERY WELL REMAIN DRY TODAY.

DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT TODAYM SO WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE
CLUSTERS ARE UNLIKELY. WFO GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. THIS LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DCAPE AVAILABLE, BUT THE HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...
* LOWERED COASTAL POPS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SPEED OF THE SEA
  BREEZE.
* RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND BASED ON THE
  LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA.
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY PER RAP/H3R SOUNDINGS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
  EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
CONVECTION GOING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE CERTAIN HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SETTING UP A DEEP/MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THE CHANNELED VORTICITY PROVIDES STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/EARLY ONSET ON
PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TO OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
ANY MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT TO OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ILL-DEFINED FRONT
WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE INFLUX OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. AGAIN...STRONG OR
EVEN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP WITH LIMITED INSOLATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...A
MINOR FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO
KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY...THEN OPEN UP INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL THEN
TRACK THROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE...GREATEST DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT SLIGHT MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING EAST SWELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND STALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN PUSH FARTHER
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SOUTHERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGING WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OUT TO 20 NM...AND 2-3 FT
BEYOND. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL
ENERGY AND THE FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.  19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.  HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED.  HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE.
DESPITE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING N/NW OF KPIA AND E OF
KCMI...NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER. END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 20Z THEN
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO KDEC AND KCMI BY AROUND 02Z. AFTER
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BARNES



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM A NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST LOW.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING A 925-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-
RES CAMS TAKE AN MCS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TRACK ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z HRRR DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z. THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE
850MB WARM NOSE/MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD POP GRID GRADIENT GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES
THAT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES RANK IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE BASED ON OAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDS INCREASING FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONSIDERATIONS NEEDED FOR BOTH
MESO SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MAIN FEATURES TO
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
EDGE EAST WITH TIME. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MOVING EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK H700 WAVE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND 36 HOURS BEGINS TO DIMINISH...AS EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY ALTER THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H850 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA. MESO NMM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWARD
DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE EURO KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TREND FOR NOW. THROUGH FRIDAY THE EURO CONTINUES THE TREND
FOR MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER...WHILE THE GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT/THUNDER OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HIGH MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT H850 IS
HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z FRIDAY. GFS
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO ARE ON THE RISE...IN A RANGE OF 11KFT TO NEAR
13KFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE GFS MAY NOT BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR ITS MORE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF STORM FEATURES...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE GFS WITH ITS MORE
NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OVER IOWA IS SHOWING 4.25 TO 4.75 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE EURO HAS ONLY
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER VALUES SOUTH OF US34. THE EURO
HAS ITS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FROM NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN
MO. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS. FOR NOW HYDRO SITUATION CAN TAKE A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE REMAINS AT 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
ANY TIME...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOCAL URBAN RUNOFF EFFECTS
OR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES. GIVEN TODAYS UNCERTAINTY OF
EVOLUTION OF MESO/SYNOPTIC FEATURE INTERACTIONS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
MILD...75 TO 85 RANGE...WITH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAINY PATTERN WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
PUSH OF WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES TOWARD SUNRISE AND TRACK ESE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SITES THAN
KOTM. LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.

Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR ceilings should lift the next few hours and eventually
scatter out later this evening. There is a chance of isolated
elevated showers tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions should
prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.

Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds
east less than 10 kts are expected through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 247 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME SPOTS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY WHERE THE EVENING`S
STORMS HAVE MOVED AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO UNDER A MILE IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.

HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS  EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.

MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW THE SAME
PATTEN AS THEY DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO PASS OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.

THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.

Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Less confident in BR developing for TOP/FOE as 4kft cloud deck
noses in from the north, however T/Td spreads only 6F at this hour
and will keep the tempo group as an uncertainty. MVFR cig
development also looks unlikely. Southeast winds continue through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME SPOTS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY WHERE THE EVENING`S
STORMS HAVE MOVED AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO UNDER A MILE IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.

HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS  EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.

MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.

HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.

GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW
CLOUDS WITH ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR EAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE STORM
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES. FOLLOWING THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW
AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG
WITH THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY YIELDS
400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER 600J/KG USING
78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T REALLY GET
PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND.
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

LOW CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST AIRPORTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED TIMES
OF HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS. AFTER 02Z TONIGHT...
CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP AGAIN WITH FOG AND LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER MOST
OF THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
THEN STALL IT OUT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
UPPER LOWS...BUT WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
EARLY THIS WEEK...FIGURE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE.

SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HOLDING ONTO POPS FARTHER WEST AND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. IF THERE IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WOULD STILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD
START TO DRY OUT...BUT WILL KEEP JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES AND
UP TOWARD THE KOWB AREA.

WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY...BUT AS WE TREND
TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE FELT IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM. MODELS
DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. HOW SOON THIS WOULD ARRIVE IN
OUR CWA IS ANYBODYS GUESS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH NO REAL TRIGGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA
BUT WEAKENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD BUT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP IT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BUMP UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR FRIDAY
WITH THAT RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND
LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS AT KPAH AND KOWB TODAY...BUT KCGI AND
KEVV MAY EVEN CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AGAIN TONIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
THEN STALL IT OUT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
UPPER LOWS...BUT WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
EARLY THIS WEEK...FIGURE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE.

SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HOLDING ONTO POPS FARTHER WEST AND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. IF THERE IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WOULD STILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD
START TO DRY OUT...BUT WILL KEEP JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES AND
UP TOWARD THE KOWB AREA.

WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY...BUT AS WE TREND
TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE FELT IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM. MODELS
DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. HOW SOON THIS WOULD ARRIVE IN
OUR CWA IS ANYBODYS GUESS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH NO REAL TRIGGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA
BUT WEAKENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD BUT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP IT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BUMP UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR FRIDAY
WITH THAT RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TAF ISSUANCE. CURRENT CEILINGS ON
THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE STARTING TO MOVE
TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS...SO KEPT THE CURRENT TREND IN PLACE. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE TAF...AS PERSISTENT
TROUGH WILL BE REFORMING TO THE WEST OF THE WFO TAF SITES THROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...SMITH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 1111 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN AND SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY EWD...AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
NUDGE NEWD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION...WHICH HAS LED TO RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLEVIATE
THIS AND HELP TO LIFT/SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS-IS. AREAS OF DEEP E TX/W CENTRAL
LA ARE CURRENTLY ALREADY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS OF 10 AM. WITH FCST MAX TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

AVIATION...
ALL BUT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS STARTING OFF THIS
MORNING WITH IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND EXPECTING THESE
LOWER SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY WITH THE
CLOUD CEILINGS LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT OR ABOVE AND THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES BY 01/15Z. WITH THE COMBINATION
OF WET SOILS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 02/09Z./06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  84  65 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  84  64  83  64 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  79  61  82  63 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  80  63  82  64 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  80  61  82  62 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  81  64  84  66 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  82  64  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  87  65  86  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 742 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
ALL BUT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS STARTING OFF THIS
MORNING WITH IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND EXPECTING THESE
LOWER SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY WITH THE
CLOUD CEILINGS LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT OR ABOVE AND THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES BY 01/15Z. WITH THE COMBINATION
OF WET SOILS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 02/09Z./06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  84  65 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  82  64  83  64 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  80  61  82  63 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  80  63  82  64 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  80  61  82  62 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  81  64  84  66 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  82  64  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  83  65  86  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  84  65 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  82  64  83  64 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  80  61  82  63 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  80  63  82  64 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  80  61  82  62 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  81  64  84  66 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  82  64  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  83  65  86  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 822 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE
NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED
3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF
NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND
200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT
ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER
STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA
AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH
SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO
SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW
VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING
THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
PUSH SWD AND STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY DIGS SE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS
TIME. SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY/NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND PWATS
HOVER BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES. FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LESS
OF A GRIP ON THE REGION. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AFTN THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO MID- UPPER 70S SE. LOWS
WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE 60S (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES WED NIGHT).
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENING SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT
OCCURS IN THE NEAR/SHORT PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF FEATURE FAIRLY
LIGHT N/NW FLOW ALOFT SAT INTO SUN AS THE MID ATLC BECOMES
SITUATED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. TEMPS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
THROUGH CANADA THROUGH NEXT TUE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA ON
SUN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS SAT/SUN AS THE GFS IS A BIT
OF A CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY AND THINK IT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YR. DID DROP POPS TO 20% ACRS NE
ZONES. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SUN...WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FLOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SSE AND EVENTUALLY THE SSW MON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A BIT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS MON
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...THEN GO ONLY 20% OR LESS TUE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENLY IN THE 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN VA INTO MD
EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AT 23Z. ISOLATED TSTMS WERE ALSO PRESENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STALLS. RAIN MAY NOT BE CONTINUOUS
BUT SHOULD AT LEAST BE INTERMITTENT AND PREFERRED TO LEAVE IT IN THE
TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT ECG. SOME DRYING COULD IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR OR MVFR TEMPORARILY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF OR SBY. TIMING OF ANY BREAKS FROM IFR
OR RAIN CANNOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AT ECG...THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF ECG AND THE PCPN AND LOWER CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND MAY NOT LAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONLY PUT RAIN AND IFR IN THE TAF THERE FROM 08-15Z.

OUTLOOK...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE PSBL FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
FOR MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR OR MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALREADY RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION
AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. LATEST SUITE OF
HIGH RES MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY
LATER THIS EVENING FOR 15-20 KT NE WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

SIMILAR WINDS OVERNIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXACT LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WHERE HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED...IN GENERAL SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS WHERE MOST
UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST...SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE
NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT
ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.

PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LKB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 816 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE SOUTHWARD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE CONSEQUENTLY WAS DIMINISHED IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDED BACK UPWARD DURING THE NIGHT.

WITH MOISTURE LINGERING TOMORROW...STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES. LIMITED INSOLATION IS LIKELY TO
RESTRICT HEATING GIVEN CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO MAXIMA WERE LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

POPS WERE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
PARKED FAR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
OFFERING THE BEST CHANCE OF GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION. AS
SUCH...ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TIED TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS JUST
DOWNSTREAM...SO POP GRADIENT WAS SHARPENED TO REFLECT THIS
EXPECTATION. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE
ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.

AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSED UPPER LOW
IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST ON
FRIDAY. NAM/GFS TRY TO MOVE THE LOW CENTER A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS PREFERABLE IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN.

STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO
THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE
CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP
PROFILES.

FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A
WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER
CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

STRATUS HAS REMAINED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS HAVING MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BVI/BTP/DUJ. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC MODELS QUICKLY CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...THINK THAT GFSLAMP
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON STRATUS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND EASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PREVENT DRIER
AIR THAT WAS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NAM/GFS WERE CORRECT AND
CLOUDS MANAGED TO CLEAR...OR IF GFSLAMP FORECAST TURNS OUT TO NOT
BE TOO PESSIMISTIC AND LIFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER ALL.

AS WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE FROM
THEIR OVERNIGHT HEIGHTS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE FROM
DIURNAL CUMULUS...INSTEAD OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS LINGERED
THE LAST TWO DAYS.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/TGREEN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 723 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE
ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.

AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSED UPPER LOW
IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST ON
FRIDAY. NAM/GFS TRY TO MOVE THE LOW CENTER A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS PREFERABLE IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN.

STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO
THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE
CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP
PROFILES.

FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A
WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER
CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

STRATUS HAS REMAINED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS HAVING MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS
BVI/BTP/DUJ. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC MODELS QUICKLY CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...THINK THAT GFSLAMP
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON STRATUS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND EASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PREVENT DRIER
AIR THAT WAS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NAM/GFS WERE CORRECT AND
CLOUDS MANAGED TO CLEAR...OR IF GFSLAMP FORECAST TURNS OUT TO NOT
BE TOO PESSIMISTIC AND LIFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER ALL.

AS WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE FROM
THEIR OVERNIGHT HEIGHTS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE FROM
DIURNAL CUMULUS...INSTEAD OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS LINGERED
THE LAST TWO DAYS.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 629 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRIMARY CHANGE WITH 630PM UPDATE IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO. WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN HAS REMAINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO. SYNOPTIC MODELS STILL RESOLVE THIS AREA OF RAIN POORLY...AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IT DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS CONSIDERING EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT
REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH.

SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL WAVE
EXITS...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES HANGING ON TO ISOLATED SHRA
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME..CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PIT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL THEN EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE
ON WEDNESDAY.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.  DESPITE MOISTURE
CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS.

BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP
BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER.  THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA-
WIDE.  ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS.  ACTIVITY
WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURES REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT...BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE DAY AND A
PESSIMISTIC OVERALL OUTLOOK WAS RETAINED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH.

SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL WAVE
EXITS...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES HANGING ON TO ISOLATED SHRA
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME..CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PIT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL THEN EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE
ON WEDNESDAY.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.  DESPITE MOISTURE
CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS.

BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP
BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER.  THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA-
WIDE.  ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS.  ACTIVITY
WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 311 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY
REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1152 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE MADE TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE
TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER TUCKER
COUNTY...WITH OBS JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE 70`S AND TO THE
NORTH IN THE 50`S. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A WAVE RIDES ALONG IT. COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION LOCKED IN LOW STRATUS...WITH VERY
LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS TODAY. THUS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
REALIZE HIGHS IN THE 60`S FROM I-70 NORTHWARD.

AREA OF MOISTURE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO AS OF THIS HOUR. USING TIMING FROM THE RAP AND THE
HRRR...THIS SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE HEATING A DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY BUMPING
POPS UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES A TOUCH FOR THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY
REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 135 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.

THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC  FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.

THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC  FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004>006-009>011-013-084.

  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-007-012-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 428 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS WITH LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004>006-009>011-013-084.

  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-007-012-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN.  LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.  THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.  SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME.  WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST.  STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.

APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TEENS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE GUSTS SHOULD HANG ON AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-13KTS DURING THE
DAY. GUSTS MAY HANG ON AFTER SUNSET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE AT 15-20 KT.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15-20 KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 1116 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS BEEN LIFTING AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN
IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE REGION BUT I DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN
COVERAGE TODAY...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PW VALUES PER THE 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING SHOW A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH VALUES AROUND 1.17
INCHES. A DRIER AIRMASS IS NOTED ON OTHER AREA RAOBS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLIX...WHICH IS SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
LOCAL MICROBURST ANALYSIS SHOWS A MEAGER POTENTIAL AND THIS IS
REFLECTED ON HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AROUND THE I-59
CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING GIVEN
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TO SLOW THE WARMING. I ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
REDUCE MORE IN THE WEST AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS...THOUGH VISBYS HAVE IMPROVED. EXPECT
CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HBG/MEI...ELSEWHERE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY
TODAY. ADDITIONAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES MORNING. /DL/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR DENSE FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND WET GROUND. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS TO LAST
UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE PINE BELT REGION
WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING
TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AND MAINLY EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD HELP
TO ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA AND RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME MORE FOG POTENTIAL FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
CUT BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS A BIT AND REMOVED TSTM CHANCES. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WED INTO SAT. THE PATTERN WILL BE
ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE LOW MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE REPRESENTED BY 1.0 IN OR LESS PWS FOR WED-THU AND THEN
VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 IN FOR FRI. IT`S NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
HIGHER DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIP. WITH THE OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG FOR WED-THU AND GENERALLY LOW RH FOR EARLY
JUNE. DUE TO THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT
COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH
LOW/HIGHS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  64  83  63 /  11   9  13   6
MERIDIAN      82  63  84  61 /  40  20  14   8
VICKSBURG     83  62  84  61 /  10   5  11   4
HATTIESBURG   85  66  88  65 /  53  25  15  12
NATCHEZ       82  63  83  63 /  10   7  13   4
GREENVILLE    79  63  82  62 /  10   5   8   3
GREENWOOD     80  61  82  61 /  10   5   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 430 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR DENSE FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND WET GROUND. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS TO LAST
UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE PINE BELT REGION
WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING
TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AND MAINLY EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD HELP
TO ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA AND RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME MORE FOG POTENTIAL FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
CUT BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS A BIT AND REMOVED TSTM CHANCES. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WED INTO SAT. THE PATTERN WILL BE
ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE LOW MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE REPRESENTED BY 1.0 IN OR LESS PWS FOR WED-THU AND THEN
VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 IN FOR FRI. IT`S NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
HIGHER DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIP. WITH THE OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG FOR WED-THU AND GENERALLY LOW RH FOR EARLY
JUNE. DUE TO THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT
COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH
LOW/HIGHS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE CONTENDING WITH LIFR RESTRICTION DUE TO
FOG/STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH OF THE GWO/HKS/JAN CORRIDOR. EXPECT FOG TO MIX
OUT BY AROUND 14-15Z WITH VFR CATEGORY CIGS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTN.
PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL BE IN THE HBG AREA FOR THIS AFTN AS
DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR HELPS TO REDUCE THE THREAT ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS WE GO FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  64  83  63 /  25   9  13   6
MERIDIAN      82  63  84  61 /  40  20  14   8
VICKSBURG     83  62  84  61 /  14   5  11   4
HATTIESBURG   85  66  88  65 /  53  25  15  12
NATCHEZ       82  63  83  63 /  19   7  13   4
GREENVILLE    79  63  82  62 /  10   5   8   3
GREENWOOD     80  61  82  61 /  14   5   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ048-049-
     054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/CME



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

Upper LOW churning over extreme south-central MO this evening has
ejected an upper level disturbance to the northeast of the LOW
center, near KMDH in southern IL, and has resulted in light rain
with some measurable. The expected track of this disturbance
should follow the southeast edge of the CWA boundary in IL,
leaving little more than scattered sprinkles for areas along a
Salem (KSLO) to Farmington (KFAM) line. This is in line with the
current forecast.

This situation is expected to continue until late Monday morning
when the LOW finally pulls away.

Showers continue to form over the mid-MO valley from near a
genesis region near KFSD in southeast SD and while the prevailing
flow will try to push them down into our region, little support to
the southeast to sustain and sheer distance of travel should
prevent any impact in our CWA.

Otherwise, E-NE flow at cloud level should keep cloudy skies over
much of the region overnight and well into Monday. Look for a
minimal temp drop tonight with a somewhat better rise on Monday.
Higher MOS temps for mins tonight and lower MOS for maxes on
Monday preferred.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

Rain associated with an upper level disturbance and an inverted
surface trough should remain se of the taf sites late tonight. The
persistent stratus cloud deck will continue at the taf sites with
the current ceilings around 1500 feet lowering to around 1000
feet late tonight. Ceiling heights may be more variable at UIN as
some drier low level air has filtered into northern MO and west
central IL.  The cloud ceiling will gradually rise on Monday to
around 2000-3000 feet Monday afternoon, and eventually into the
VFR catagory Monday evening. Nely surface winds will continue
through the period with a surface ridge extending from WI and MI
southwest into northeast MO shifting only slowly eastward.

Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower late tonight to
around 1000 feet, then rise to around 2500 feet Monday afternoon.
The cloud ceiling should eventually scatter out Monday night.
Nely surface wind will continue through the period.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

WE ARE FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS WITH THIS DISCUSSION...THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF OUR SEVERE PARAMETERS SOMEWHAT
DISJOINTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IN
JUST HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE REST OF THE DAY IS LOW. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PER CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WITH
INCREASING BULK SHEAR TO GENERATE SOME STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANTICIPATED. WATCH 246 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE MAY NEED TO ADD BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

AT 2 PM WE HAD SOME CELLS FIRING QUICKLY OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS
AND BELTS...WITH ANOTHER REGION OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPING NEAR COOKE
CITY IN THE BEARTOOTHS. HRRR DID GREAT LAST NIGHT...BUT IS ALL
OVER THE MAP AND TERRIBLY INCONSISTENT WITH ITS RUNS TODAY. OTHER
MODELS DISAGREE ON SEVERAL FEATURES AND TIMING AS WELL. BUT TAKING
MATTERS FROM CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE I AM ANTICIPATING
STRONGEST CONVECTION BETWEEN 4-7 PM AND TO BE SITUATED FROM
ROUNDUP THROUGH BILLINGS TO NEAR THE BIG HORNS MOVING NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING
OUT EAST AS WELL.

ON THE OTHERSIDE OF THINGS...WEAKER CONVECTION FIRING NOW MAY
PRODUCE COLD POOLS LIMITING CHANCE OF SEVERE CELLS LATER. BUT
THIS HARD TO PREDICT AHEAD OF TIME...SO WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO A CUTOFF
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA. SEVERAL
IMPULSES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS GIVES MUCH OF
THE AREA AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HELPING THIS WILL BE A
GOOD INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. EACH AFTERNOON SOME INSTABILITY
EXISTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL UPDATE TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR
AND WILL PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/074 048/070 051/067 052/073 054/074 053/078 054/074
    63/T    32/T    34/T    34/W    44/T    43/T    33/T
LVM 049/069 045/068 048/067 047/071 050/071 050/075 050/072
    65/T    44/T    45/T    45/W    44/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 054/077 047/073 051/070 052/076 054/076 054/080 054/077
    53/T    32/T    35/T    34/W    44/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 058/075 048/071 051/068 053/075 056/075 054/080 054/076
    53/T    21/B    25/T    44/W    55/T    42/T    22/T
4BQ 057/078 049/072 052/068 053/074 056/074 054/078 054/076
    32/T    32/T    45/T    34/W    55/T    42/T    33/T
BHK 055/076 046/070 046/067 049/072 052/074 051/077 050/076
    63/T    31/B    25/T    33/W    55/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 050/075 045/069 048/068 049/072 051/072 050/075 052/073
    33/T    32/T    54/T    44/W    55/T    43/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

 156 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENT SYSTEM KICKS OFF FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT STARTING TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS PUSHING INTO IDAHO AND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT STORMS FIRING UP.
MOISTURE EVIDENT WITH THETA-E ANALYSIS SHOWING A BULLSEYE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS...WHERE STORMS ARE FIRING NOW IN VICINITY OF 4000 CAPE...
AND THE AXIS PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE MT AND ND BORDER. PARAMETERS
AND TIMING ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE BEING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED VERBAIGE
FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

ONE MINUTE GOES-14 IMAGERY (THANK YOU CIRA-RAMMB) HAS BEEN GREAT
TO USE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR REALLY SHOWING WHERE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE THINGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. HRRR IS INDICATING CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN MILES CITY
AND GLENDIVE BY 21Z AND WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CELLS TRYING TO FORM...THEY JUST AREN`T CUTTING IT YET. THE SSEO
PAGE FROM SPC SHOWED THIS EARLIER TODAY GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT
THINGS WILL FIRE UP OVER FERGUS COUNTY AREA AND MOVE INTO
PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER 5-6 PM.

A SPECIAL UPPER AIR RUN WAS RELEASED AT 19Z AND DATA SHOULD BE IN
SHORTLY. DATA THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS THAT PWATS HAVE DECREASED BY .2
OF AN INCH SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BIT OF A DRY SOUNDING BELOW
400 MB. THE SPEED SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST STORMS TO BE
MULTICELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR LINE IN OUR CWA WITH A GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF LARGER HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT TRANSITIONS INTO A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KGGW WESTWARD. SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH
OF RAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT`S PUSH INTO CANADA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK WAVES INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE INTRODUCING A WARMING TREND AND
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IT WILL HELP TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
NORTHWESTERLY...INTRODUCING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL TWEAKS THAT WERE MADE WERE
SIMPLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE SW FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SW FOR
THURSDAY...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THAT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THAT COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE... SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY
DRY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 847 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

REMNANTS OF AN MCV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NE/SD WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED NEUTRAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AMPLE H85 MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE WITH +12 TO +14 DEWPOINTS. +12 TO
+16 H70 TEMPS EXIST...AND THIS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF EXISTING DEVELOPMENT.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST WITH KLBF SOUNDING
CONTAINING ABOUT 3800 J/KG OF CAPE.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY STILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...AND LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL
ADJUST ONGOING FOR A LITTLE LATER DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...AND WE MAY SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND NORTH AND EAST...SIMILAR TO
LATEST HRRR DEPICTION. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM...MOIST
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE
METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO
THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE AID OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF STORMS SO HAVE THIS MENTIONED...THEN TREND TO LIKELY
POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA
AN THE MCS SHOULD ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST . SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY TRY TO RE-FORM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE
HIGHS FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/UNSTABLE
AIR (3000J/KG) IN PLACE AND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ADDED TO THE
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.

THE REAL WARM TEMPERATURES STAY TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNCAPPED AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION.  THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS COVERAGE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY.  HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 76 TO 82.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MORE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOUTHEAST
GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTS DIMINISH BY
02-04Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
COULD AFFECT KOFK 07-10Z. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KOFK AFTER THE RAIN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AT KLNK/KOMA 10-14Z.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 19-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 149 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE GENERATING MORE RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL BE A SOGGY...OCTOBER-LIKE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
IN CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
REGIME WILL THUS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TOPPED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A 40 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED ACROSS QUEBEC.

THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES OF A THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING 24 HOUR
RAIN FALL AMOUNTS TO TWO TO THREE INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LUCKILY...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WERE SUCH THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SHOULD GREATLY BENEFIT FROM THE UNUSUAL FALL LIKE RAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 40S THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL PA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TONIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO UNDER A HALF INCH OR SO.

FARTHER WEST...ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP THICK LOW STRATUS IN PLACE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS. THE DEEP LOW
STRATUS AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO MIX
IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW STRATUS WILL INTERSECT THE HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COOL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE HILLS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A DEPARTING FRONTAL WAVE WILL
LEAVE DRYING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND TRAPPED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED DRYING ON TUESDAY WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SOME CHANCE AT CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING INSTABILITY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. WITH A COOL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...+4 TO +6C 850
MB TEMPS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ON TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE LOW
60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS ACROSS NY AND A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SUPPORT RETURN FLOW AND 850
MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. THIS WIND DIRECTION AND WARMER
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW 70S WITH
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+12C AND CORRESPONDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN
INCREASING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH A LACK OF ANY DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FORCING
APPARENT AT THIS TIME...DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. BY
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CROSSING FROM CANADA
ACROSS MAINE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 70S...BUT
RETURN FLOW WILL RECOVER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND BRINGS A
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT A MODEST IMPROVEMENT TODAY...BUT
CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING.

BUF/IAG/ROC...AT 06Z IFR AND ALTHOUGH OBS TO THE NORTHWEST SHOW
IMPROVING CIGS...EXPECT THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPING AND PROBABLY KEEP THESE SITE IFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS HINTED AT BY LOW LEVEL LIFT/QPF IN BUFKIT
AND BY THE HRRR MODEL. THESE SITES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TODAY...BUT THEN CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ART...STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AROUND 08Z WHICH SHOULD
LOWER CIGS TO IFR...BUT ONCE THIS RAIN MOVES OUT EXPECT THAT A 30
KT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOWNSLOPE AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS PROGRESSIVELY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

JHW...LOW CIGS MAY LOWER TO THE GROUND AND RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE INVERSION LOWERS. CIGS/VSBY
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY THIS MORNING...BUT PROBABLY WILL LOWER
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS QUEBEC. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...

AT 02Z AND AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THE CLUSTER OF
PREVIOUSLY SEVERE-WARNED STORMS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
THEN DRAPED SSW INTO THE SC UPSTATE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY ESE.

THE 00Z GSO RAOB SAMPLED THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENVIRONMENT THAT
SUPPORTED EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DIABATIC COOLING AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAVE SINCE DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO AROUND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS...AS
INDICATED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...WHILE AN AXIS OF A LITTLE
BETTER THAN 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER FAR EASTERN SC
AND SE NC...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE  A PERIOD OF MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW
THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY COLLAPSE SLOWLY SE WITH THE
SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A DEEP MOISTURE FEED IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LOW...FED BY THE CONFLUENCE
OF A PAIR OF MOIST PLUMES FROM BOTH THE CARRIBEAN AND EAST
PACIFIC...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST/UNCAPPED/AND (ALBEIT) WEAKLY
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT - ONE
SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE RE-GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND THIS LEAD ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND INDEED THE LATEST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SC/GA MAY
DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TOWARD MORNING.

NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK INSTABILITY...SO HEAVY RAIN AMIDST THE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PROVE THE LONE HAZARD. OTHERWISE...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA ON TUE SHOULD CONTINUE A SIMILAR
TREND INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A LOW OVERCAST IS CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN/IN THE LINGERING WARM
SECTOR. LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S NEAR 70S S AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CEILINGS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER TO MUCH MORE THAN MVFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY. LIFT
GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP STEADY PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE TRIAD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE. POINTS EAST WILL STILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S HOWEVER. CHANCES
FOR LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

WET WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THU... WITH THE
SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO WED WITH A NARROW STABLE SURFACE
WEDGE OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN... ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE
DRIFTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER... INTO THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED (1000-2000 J/KG AREAWIDE ON THE
NAM... SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE GFS) WITH SIMILAR WEAK DPVA ROTATING
AROUND THE E/NE SIDE OF THE LOW... POSSIBLE UPPER DIVERGENCE (MAINLY
NE)... PW AROUND 150% OF NORMAL... AND ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE GENERATING THE
GREATEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE ERN AND NRN SECTIONS...
NEAREST THE BOUNDARY... REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING TO WORK INTO SW SECTIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED (SW) TO NUMEROUS (ELSEWHERE) SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS... PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE WEDGE
AXIS... AND FACTORING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP... WILL KEEP HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL... MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ABOVE NORMAL PW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... WILL TREND
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN BUT NOT OUT THU NIGHT AS THE BY-NOW-WEAKENING
UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN CLIMO FRI... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ZONE ALL PUSH
SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
DISPERSE BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... BUT ONCE THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS BREAKS UP AND LIFTS... WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST... BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN FORCING
FOR ASCENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WILL KEEP NEAR-CLIMO 30-40%
CHANCES MAINLY EAST. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LATE-DAY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION... WHICH MAY
DROP SLOWLY SE INTO THE NW CWA LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRI NIGHT BASED ON THE WEAK NW FLOW. WE`RE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
FRIDAY`S MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY (OR ITS REMNANT MCV) DROP THROUGH THE
WRN/CENTRAL OH VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH AT THIS PACE THIS FEATURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
TO AFFECT US ON SAT. AT ANY RATE... WILL INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NW CWA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

IF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV COMES TO PASS AND MOVES AS MODELS
SUGGEST... IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT...
POTENTIALLY RELOADING THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BUT WITH THE OVERALL NOAM AND WRN ATLANTIC FLOW WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING AT THESE LATITUDES FRI/SAT... IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
AND TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. BY SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE POTENT NRN STREAM ENERGY ESE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUN/MON... AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LIKELY INCREASING SHEAR ENOUGH
OVER OUR AREA FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF STORMS MON INTO TUE. AFTER
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY (BEHIND THE POTENTIAL DEPARTING
MCV BUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH)... THE GFS DEPICTS RISING
MUCAPE VALUES EACH DAY MON/TUE TO 1000-2500 J/KG. WILL RAMP UP LATE-
DAY STORM CHANCES (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG) MON/TUE. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL N
AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM NC.   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
KINT/KGSO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THROUGH ROUGHLY 04Z...AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR...THOUGH SOME LIFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE...AS A NORTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KFAY WHERE CEILINGS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR IF THE FRONT
STALLS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS DURING
THE DAYS.

OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ADVECTING OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS/22




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 306 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY MID WEEK AND THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...BUT IT IS SLOWLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS IS BEING DISPLACED BY A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VLY.
CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS GA AND CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLE HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS...BUT HAS STRUGGLED THUS
FAR WITHIN THE ILM CWA. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE HAVE CREATED
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER HEATING HAS DRIVEN BETTER INSTABILITY...WHICH IS ACTING
IN TANDEM WITH AT LEAST RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES THAN FURTHER
EAST IN THE CWA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE CONVECTION
OUT WEST WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER AND THEN ADVECT NE INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY DUE TO ASSISTANCE OF SHORTWAVE PVA. STILL CANNOT TRULY
IDENTIFY ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AROUND THE PRIMARY CUTOFF...BUT
THEY MUST BE THERE...AND ALL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT. HAVE
BUMPED POP TO HIGH-CHC FOR WEST OF I-95 THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND...BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING. CONVECTION WILL ERODE A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND
SPREAD EAST TOWARDS DAWN AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND EVEN BETTER
MOIST ADVECTION PUSH CLOSER.

CONTINUED SW FLOW AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL
KEEP MINS ELEVATED TONIGHT...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 70...LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES. MOS NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND HAVE BLENDED THE MET/MAV FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
THE CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO DRIFT EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING THE APPALACHIANS WED AND WED NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT CERTAIN...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ONCE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THEY WILL LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE MID AND LATE EVE. THUS...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY POINT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION...BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE ENHANCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN
BANDS/LINES...WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND
PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IS THE CASE UPSTREAM TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY
LEAD TO A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OR TWO.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER INLAND AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY 90 DEGREE
READINGS EITHER DAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT. LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THE
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE
RESIDUAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
INCLUDE A BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND WAVERING INLAND
FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS
FEATURE BASICALLY WASHES OUT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST AND THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH THE
SEABREEZE. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY TRENDING DOWN TO GOOD CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL LIKELY CRATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLO/LBT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS MODELED BY
THE RECENT HRRR AND WRF. HAVE ADDED TEMPO -TSRA TO THESE TWO
TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION...BUT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FINALLY DEEPENS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
FEATURE IS DRIFTING EAST HOWEVER...AND THE SWELL IS SLOWLY ABATING.
WHAT HAD BEEN A 4FT/11SEC EASTERLY SWELL HAS EASED TO 3FT/9SEC...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS HAVE
DROPPED TO 2-3 FT...AND THE LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
MAINTAIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM IN A SWELL-DOMINATED FASHION.
SO...ALTHOUGH THE SWELL IS EASING...IT IS DOING SO ONLY VERY
SLOWLY...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT...FROM THE N AND W...WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ILL
DEFINED LATE WEEK. VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
OCCUR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUE WITH MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE ON SE AND THEN S DURING THE DAY WED AND
WED NIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST WED NIGHT...UP TO
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE WAVERING
FRONT THAT INITIALLY IS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH THE
SAME PROGRESSION OF EVENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FRONT.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL FOUR FOOTER OR TWO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/DL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...HAVE BUMPED POP TO HIGH CHC FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. STILL HAVE DIFFICULT
LOCATING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WV IMAGERY...BUT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPANDING AND DEEPENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...SO CLEARLY SOME PVA IS THERE. HRRR/WRF/NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POP HAS BEEN
ADDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM BELOW:

AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS OF LATE...IS SLOWLY
RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO
DRIFTING TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE TN VLY.
MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE SOARED TO 80+ BY 10 AM...AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD MID 80S WITH SEVERAL 90-91 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70...WILL DRIVE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TODAY AS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME
TIME...SLOWLY LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEP...AND SOME WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT THIS
AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AND MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES ONLY LATE IN THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT
TODAY...WITH THE HRRR VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION INLAND THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE NSSL WRF AND NAM/ARW ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED.
HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARBY IN
WV IMAGERY...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TAP THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE BLENDED THE MODELS THEN...WITH SCHC ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING WEST...RAMPING UP TO CHANCE THIS EVENING WELL INLAND.
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER FORCING...BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A WARM NIGHT FORECAST AS SW WINDS DRIVE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND AT
LEAST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INHIBITS LONGWAVE COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP ONLY TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...WARMEST ALONG
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFF SHORE
ON TUES AS CUTOFF LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED WITH A SOLID STREAM OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT VORT
LOBES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND SUPPLY
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND STRETCHING IT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
COMES AGAINST THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND CUTOFF LOW. IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE STALLING LATE
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOCALLY AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SE TO E AT THE SFC AS FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY MAY SEE
MOST OF ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE BUT BY LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW NUDGES EAST AND
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SHIFT FROM MORE SW-S TO
S-SE PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES UP TO THE
COAST. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA TUES AFTN THROUGH WED WITH THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WHICH IN TURN WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP CLOSER TO 70...WITH SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES.WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON TUES AS MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO START THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH
ON THURS AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
PLAGUING THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THURS INTO FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS FIRST TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST GIVING SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER...BUT NEXT ONE WILL FOLLOW BRINGING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE ENHANCED
SUPPORT BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LINGERING FRONT PRODUCING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES TEMPORARILY. OVERALL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BETTER CHC OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARMER WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL LIKELY CRATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLO/LBT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS MODELED BY
THE RECENT HRRR AND WRF. HAVE ADDED TEMPO -TSRA TO THESE TWO
TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FINALLY DEEPENS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND THIS IS ALLOWING
THE SWELL TO ABATE. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW THE PRIMARY SWELL IS AT 3
FT/10 SEC FROM THE EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT IN THE WEAK
GRADIENT...STRUGGLING TO 10 KTS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN
SWELL-DOMINATED WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF
SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUES THROUGH
WED. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS FRONT STALLS
TO THE NORTH...REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY SEE
A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE. LONGER PERIOD UP TO
8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. THEREFORE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THROUGH EARLY WED BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN A MORE
PERSISTENT SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WED INTO THURS. SEAS
WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E-SE THROUGH
THURS INTO EARLY FRI AS LINGERING FRONT SLIPS SOUTH A LITTLE BIT
AND REMAINS STALLED WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ASIDE
FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT
OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1031 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS OF LATE...IS SLOWLY
RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO
DRIFTING TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE TN VLY.
MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE SOARED TO 80+ BY 10 AM...AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD MID 80S WITH SEVERAL 90-91 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70...WILL DRIVE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TODAY AS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME
TIME...SLOWLY LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEP...AND SOME WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT THIS
AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AND MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES ONLY LATE IN THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT
TODAY...WITH THE HRRR VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION INLAND THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE NSSL WRF AND NAM/ARW ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED.
HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARBY IN
WV IMAGERY...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TAP THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE BLENDED THE MODELS THEN...WITH SCHC ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING WEST...RAMPING UP TO CHANCE THIS EVENING WELL INLAND.
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER FORCING...BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A WARM NIGHT FORECAST AS SW WINDS DRIVE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND AT
LEAST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INHIBITS LONGWAVE COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP ONLY TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...WARMEST ALONG
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFF SHORE
ON TUES AS CUTOFF LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED WITH A SOLID STREAM OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT VORT
LOBES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND SUPPLY
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND STRETCHING IT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
COMES AGAINST THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND CUTOFF LOW. IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE STALLING LATE
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOCALLY AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SE TO E AT THE SFC AS FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY MAY SEE
MOST OF ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE BUT BY LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW NUDGES EAST AND
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SHIFT FROM MORE SW-S TO
S-SE PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES UP TO THE
COAST. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA TUES AFTN THROUGH WED WITH THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WHICH IN TURN WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP CLOSER TO 70...WITH SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES.WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON TUES AS MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO START THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH
ON THURS AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
PLAGUING THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THURS INTO FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS FIRST TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST GIVING SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER...BUT NEXT ONE WILL FOLLOW BRINGING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE ENHANCED
SUPPORT BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LINGERING FRONT PRODUCING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES TEMPORARILY. OVERALL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BETTER CHC OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARMER WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION.THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING...BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG
AROUND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND THIS IS ALLOWING
THE SWELL TO ABATE. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW THE PRIMARY SWELL IS AT 3
FT/10 SEC FROM THE EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT IN THE WEAK
GRADIENT...STRUGGLING TO 10 KTS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN
SWELL-DOMINATED WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF
SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUES THROUGH
WED. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS FRONT STALLS
TO THE NORTH...REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY SEE
A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE. LONGER PERIOD UP TO
8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. THEREFORE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THROUGH EARLY WED BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN A MORE
PERSISTENT SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WED INTO THURS. SEAS
WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E-SE THROUGH
THURS INTO EARLY FRI AS LINGERING FRONT SLIPS SOUTH A LITTLE BIT
AND REMAINS STALLED WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ASIDE
FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT
OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...JDW/RGZ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 730 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE FOR CENTRAL NC BEGINS TODAY AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING A CUT-
OFF LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

THE FIRST SUCH VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING N-NE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL BY THE RAP MODEL AND PROJECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NC THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY SET-OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY LATER THIS MORNING (6-10 AM).
OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM.

STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADING AS FAR
EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
INVERTED V SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS (35-50 MPH) WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW-
OFF/CLOUDINESS. THINK ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AS HIGH AS MAX TEMPS RECORDED SUNDAY (UPPER
80S-90). OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE NW...EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
ANYTIME...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

 UPEPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER
VALUES PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.8-1.9 INCHES IN OUR VICINITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT TIED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND-MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONSIDERED WEAK (LESS THAN
20KTS). SINCE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING
OCCURS OVER URBANIZED AREAS...LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE POPS STARTING OUT IN THE CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES IN THE MORNING...RAMPING UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON....AND SOLID CHANCE OVER THE SE COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE VA
BORDER AND EDGE SWD WITH TIME INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND EXPECTED EARLIER COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ONE-TWO CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED
TO TODAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE FRONT STALLING/BISECTING THE AREA... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE... A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TN VALLEY REGION WEDNEDAY MORNING...
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
WITH GOOD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER... OVERALL
DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO
MODEST AT BEST. THUS... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY INTO THE EVENING... WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE A FEW
STRONG TO MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
(GIVEN WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND NOT GREAT INSTABILITY... BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF)... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT
HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)... WITH PW`S
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY AND DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST IT WASHES OUT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM SEASON CAD... HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY RANGE FROM THE 60S/LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST.  HIGHS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL RESEMBLE THIS PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE RANGE OF TEMPS NOT AS GREAT GIVEN THE DISSIPATING CAD
BOUNDARY. THUS... EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE HEATING OF THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE
TRIAD TERMINALS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PLUS EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS HIGHLY PROBABLE. IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
EACH MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 320 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE FOR CENTRAL NC BEGINS TODAY AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING A CUT-
OFF LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

THE FIRST SUCH VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING N-NE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL BY THE RAP MODEL AND PROJECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NC THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY SET-OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY LATER THIS MORNING (6-10 AM).
OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM.

STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADING AS FAR
EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
INVERTED V SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS (35-50 MPH) WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW-
OFF/CLOUDINESS. THINK ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AS HIGH AS MAX TEMPS RECORDED SUNDAY (UPPER
80S-90). OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE NW...EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
ANYTIME...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

 UPEPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER
VALUES PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.8-1.9 INCHES IN OUR VICINITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT TIED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND-MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONSIDERED WEAK (LESS THAN
20KTS). SINCE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING
OCCURS OVER URBANIZED AREAS...LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE POPS STARTING OUT IN THE CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES IN THE MORNING...RAMPING UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON....AND SOLID CHANCE OVER THE SE COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE VA
BORDER AND EDGE SWD WITH TIME INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND EXPECTED EARLIER COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ONE-TWO CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED
TO TODAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE FRONT STALLING/BISECTING THE AREA... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE... A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TN VALLEY REGION WEDNEDAY MORNING...
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
WITH GOOD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER... OVERALL
DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO
MODEST AT BEST. THUS... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY INTO THE EVENING... WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE A FEW
STRONG TO MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
(GIVEN WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND NOT GREAT INSTABILITY... BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF)... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT
HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)... WITH PW`S
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY AND DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST IT WASHES OUT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM SEASON CAD... HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY RANGE FROM THE 60S/LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST.  HIGHS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL RESEMBLE THIS PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE RANGE OF TEMPS NOT AS GREAT GIVEN THE DISSIPATING CAD
BOUNDARY. THUS... EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE
TRIAD TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 08Z.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK DUE TO A
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THE BULK OF THIS LOW STRATUS LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1...AFFECTING THE TRIAD
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BY 14-15Z.

THE HEATING OF THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE
TRIAD TERMINALS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PLUS EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS HIGHLY PROBABLE. IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
EACH MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 1229 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...RIDGE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.
SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF
FOG. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SFC HTG ON MON AFTN WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEABREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SPC HAS A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 INLAND TO THE LWR AND MID 80S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THU...BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRI-SUN PERIOD. ADJUSTED
POPS MON NIGHT-THU PERIODS BASED ON INCREASED CONFIDENCE...MAINLY
FOR HIGHER POPS WED-THU WITH MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THOSE DAYS.
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FCST TYPICAL CLIMO 20/30 POPS FOR FRI-
SUNDAY.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A WEEK.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.

FRI INTO THE WEEKEND: 12Z ECMWF MOVES WEAKENING UPR LOW OVER WRN
CAROLINAS FRIDAY...WITH WEAKENING UPR TROF PASSAGE OVER ERN NC
SAT-SUN. GFS IS FASTER TO WEAKEN UPR LOW AND MOVER UPR TROF ACROSS
AREA FRI-SAT...BUT THEN HAS STRONGER ENERGY DIVING INTO BACKSIDE
OF TROF RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPR LOW DEVELOPING OVER CAROLINAS
LATE SAT INTO SUN. FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AND LEANED
TO CLMO FCST PER ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS HAVING GONE CALM AT KEWN AND KOAJ. CURRENTLY HAVE A
PERIOD OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG AT KEWN AND WILL ADD AT KOAJ...BUT
WILL END AT 10Z PER THE TREND FROM RECENT NIGHTS. ISOLD DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT TOO LIMITED A
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTN THROUGH THU AS WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
OVER AREA. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SCT ACTIVITY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...WILL BUMP
UP WINDS SLIGHTLY ON THE SOUNDS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. THE
CURRENT 3KM HRRR IS HANDLING THESE HIGHER WINDS A BIT BETTER AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT. SEAS CONTINUE 3 TO 4 FEET WITH 9 TO 10
SECOND SWELLS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER AWAY AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. 3-4 FT SEAS CONT THROUGH MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING FRONT MOVING INTO AREA LATE
TUE INTO WED...THEN STALLING ACROSS WATERS AND DISSIPATING THU-
FRI. S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT INTO
WED...BECOMING E-SE FOR THU-FRI. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FT HEIGHTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...BTC/CTC
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JBM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...AND RAP 850MB-700MB RH FIELD SUGGESTS THESE MID-CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES GIVEN SUFFICIENT MIXING. SPEAKING OF MIXING...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO AROUND 850MB AND
30 KNOTS TO MIX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES. ONE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...AND WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE
ND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK...AND ONLY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (FOR MAINLY NE ND). WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL APPROACH...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER ON TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
OCCUR PAST PEAK HEATING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH MODEL INDICATING 850MB
COMPUTED CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR
40 KNOTS). THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE MID- LEVEL LOW. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES (GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC TYPE FORCING EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AFTER DAY 5. LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DESPITE THE LATEST
ECMWF WAS NOT IN YET. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING WITH FASTER
SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREE FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE TO SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY BEYOND
12Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 623 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ORIGINAL...PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
TO THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SNEAKING UP FROM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...ONLY A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON
THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3- 4 DEGREES IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE BREAKS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO
DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE
TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE
VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 400 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SNEAKING UP FROM
CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ONLY
A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT
MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR
OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES
TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3-
4 DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE
BREAKS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO
DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE
TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE
VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 104 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY COME UP 3-6 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
UNDER OVERCAST DECK AND WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB ANOTHER 3. LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW
20-30 POP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL OHIO. TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE EARLIER POPS AND ADJUSTED SOME AREAS TO
JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT IS UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY
RAIN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON
THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC
OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO
IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS
AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO
VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF
SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE
SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
4 OR BETTER WAVES HANGING ON ON THE LAKE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON AND HOPE THINGS CAN SETTLE DOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST. WAVE ACTION
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AS THE
HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
0H...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ009>012 AND OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
 LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/MAYERS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 1002 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. LOWERED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...CLOSE TO THE RAW 00Z GFS HIGHS. ALSO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND
CHANGES. THE TOLEDO AREA MAY START TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THEM TO BE THE WARM SPOT FOR THE DAY WITH A
HIGH NEAR 60.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN
EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE
REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON
THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC
OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE COLUMBUS
AREA...DRAWING UP MODEST AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY STALL THE
SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH/DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
STILL EXPECT SITES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS CIGS LIFT. WESTERN SITES WILL LIKELY RECOVER EARLIER THAN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

4 OR BETTER WAVES HANGING ON ON THE LAKE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON AND HOPE THINGS CAN SETTLE DOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST. WAVE ACTION
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AS THE
HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
0H...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ009>012 AND OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...ADAMS/MAYERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 739 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO
ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON,
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE COLUMBUS
AREA...DRAWING UP MODEST AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY STALL THE
SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH/DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
STILL EXPECT SITES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS CIGS LIFT. WESTERN SITES WILL LIKELY RECOVER EARLIER THAN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 643 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO
ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON,
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR/IFR AND VISBILIIES WILL
BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES WITH BR AND -DZ. BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR MAY BE
OBSERVED AT WESTERN TERMINALS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.
ISOLATED NON VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 456 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR/IFR AND VISBILIIES WILL
BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES WITH BR AND -DZ. BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR MAY BE
OBSERVED AT WESTERN TERMINALS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.
ISOLATED NON VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003 OHZ007>012 OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 257 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS
NORCAL INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS EVENING KEEPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
PRETTY WEAK (<500J/KG)...OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS
RIGHT WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING, SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN
THERE. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T GO AWAY COMPLETELY.

ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE OREGON
COAST. WE`RE STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WON`T BE
NEARLY AS GREAT AS IT IS TODAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT, SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CASCADES, TRINITY ALPS OR THE EAST SIDE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WEST OF
THE CASCADES, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND WARMER, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY, JUNE 5TH THROUGH MONDAY, JUNE 8TH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO NEVADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL LINGER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, BUT TO WHAT
DEGREE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
FORECAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

IN SUMMARY, WE EXPECT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON LIKELY TO REACH THE
WARMEST VALUE THEY HAVE OBSERVED, THUS FAR, THIS SPRING THIS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 85-95F
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT WARMER.

THE CHALLENGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PINNING DOWN DETAILS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT WILL BE
POSED BY SPOKES OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE ANTICIPATE THAT
AREAS FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR AREAS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES, WE EXPECT THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGHING FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COMBINES WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HEATING.

OF COURSE, JUST AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, THE PATH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND, THEREFORE, FORECAST DETAILS TEND TO CHANGE
A REASONABLE AMOUNT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO STAY TUNED FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN THESE DETAILS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z. INLAND, MVFR WILL ALSO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THESE MAY LOCALLY LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY
TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT, MONDAY, 01 JUNE 2015...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OFFSHORE...AND WILL COUPLE WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND
TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WIND DOMINATED SEAS WILL START BUILDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND VERY STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A
REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST...GIVING WINDS A STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND DIMINISHING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
-MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/BTL/MSC/CZS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 541 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.

BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER
THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE JUST BEFORE 4 PM...AND AGAIN JUST BEFORE
5 PM.

21Z TAFS SENT. ADJUSTED THE TAFS SOME MORE. HARD TO SEE CIG COMING
UP AT JST...SO TOOK OUT HIGHER CIGS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS PAST OUR SITES NOW...EXCEPT
FOR LNS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF AOO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.

WED...VFR.

THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 404 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.

BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.

NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.

WED...VFR.

THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 241 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.

BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.

NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.

WED...VFR.

THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1132 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOL CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLY LOW
HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK. MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING...AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF MID MORNING A WEAK LOW WAS INVOF MARTINSBURG WV WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD BETWEEN PHILLY AND ATLANTIC CITY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF PA COOLER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE
WHERE THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY.

THE MARYLAND BORDER COUNTIES FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY EASTWARD ARE
SEEING THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE UNDER A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. THE HRRR STARTS TO LIGHT THIS AREA UP AFTER ABOUT MID
DAY. WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL BE A RATHER GLOOMY START TO THE
FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH 60 OVER THE FAR NW...AND STRUGGLING TO HIT 70 OVER MUCH OF
THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FOCUSED
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING WAVE EDGES
TO THE NJ COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE SERN TERMINALS WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED
AT INVOF MDT/LNS INTO TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIRMED WITH UNV ATCT THAT THEY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE
AWOS...WHICH OCCASIONALLY IMPACTS THE AUTO OBSERVATIONS. THEY
HOPE TO RESOLVE IT TODAY.

AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
AIRSPACE THRU MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALSO TAKING OUT THE EVENING POP`S WE HAD FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THAT THE RADAR SCOPE HAS BEEN PPINE ACROSS THE
MID STATE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANY
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON TONIGHT, SO WE`LL LEAVE THE REST OF TONIGHT
DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS
ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO AM UPDATING THE
GRIDS AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WE`LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT SCATTER OUT,
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT, SO WILL ISSUE A FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE CHANGE IN
SKY CONDITION ONLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR
EAST HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS INTACT ALL DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE FINALLY TRYING TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS...BUT
THE TREND IN THE SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SHRINKING COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. EITHER WAY...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT ALL 3 MID-
STATE TERMINALS AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. WILL ONLY GO IFR AT
KBNA...BUT KCKV/KCSV SHOULD SEE 1/2SM BY 09-10Z. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR THIS FOG TO CLEAR BY 13-14Z FOR ALL...AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
CALM OVERNIGHT.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF MID TN TODAY. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU HAD SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT LAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS
OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE EVENING.

THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NO MAJOR FRONTS OR OTHER
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MID TN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING AWAY FROM MID TN INTO EAST TN
TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN LIFT TO THE EAST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THIS
PATTERN WILL PUT MID TN UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...BUT
THE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK THROUGH...AND PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A LITTLE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH
MOSTLY MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BULGE TOWARD THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL SKIRT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FOR MID TN...THIS WILL MEAN WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING AN
MCS OR 2 OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW...SO WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND...AND IF STORMS AND CLOUDS ARE LIMITED
ENOUGH...SOME AREAS MAY TOUCH 90.

THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOCUSING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, AND THE HRRR SHOWS THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED JUST TO OUR
WEST, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VSBY`S WILL ALSO BE REDUCED SPORADICALLY BY LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

UPDATE...BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT HAS NOW RE-FOCUSED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST, IN AREAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY REACHING FROM NEAR
FRANKLIN, TN DOWN TO JUST EAST OF HSV. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SHOWERS,
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE MID STATE, THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN
HAS NOW DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT, WILL ISSUE ONE MORE UPDATE OF OUR
SUITE OF PRODUCTS TO INDICATE THIS EXPECTATION.

AS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY, SFC DEW POINT FRONT HAS NOW BECOME ALMOST
STATIONARY, AND AT 03Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR DALE HOLLOW LAKE TO JUST
SOUTH OF BNA, TO NEAR MEM. HOWEVER, SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD
BEGIN ONCE AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED LOW END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO HANDLE
THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING THOUGH
WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TRENDS AS THE SMALL COMPLEX APPROACHES
COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. A LESS THAN 5 PCT CHANCE OF TSTMS
AFFECTING KLBB THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.

BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  94  61  93 /   0  10   0  10
TULIA         63  92  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     63  91  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     64  95  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   63  96  63  94 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  96  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/26/26




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1022 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  PLENTY OF DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
HIGH...AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING.  LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ARE HANGING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING.  OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE SO
FAR TODAY.  AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY TO
PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.  OTHER THAN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.

WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOISTURE INVADE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT THE COLUMN MOISTENS
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MIDDAY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.
EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK IS
HOW LONG IT TAKES A COLD FRONT TO TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND THUS HOW LONG IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS THIS RUN REGARDING
THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS MAINTAIN A TROUGH FEATURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSER
INSPECTION OF THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT SUSPICIOUS...WITH THE
MODEL APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHEN NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL SIDE
WITH THE CONSENSUS IN THIS INSTANCE IN TRACKING THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER
ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DRY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE
COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AGAIN BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE AND
TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH FASTER THAN THE MORE DELIBERATE GFS
SOLUTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE
FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT TOO QUICK THIS RUN. A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THURSDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-DAY WED. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SCT MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA DEVELOPING AFTER
03JUN/21Z IN FAR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AS FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......PK
AVIATION.......JKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 740 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  PLENTY OF DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
HIGH...AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING.  LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ARE HANGING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING.  OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE SO
FAR TODAY.  AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY TO
PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.  OTHER THAN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.

WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOISTURE INVADE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT THE COLUMN MOISTENS
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MIDDAY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.
EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK IS
HOW LONG IT TAKES A COLD FRONT TO TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND THUS HOW LONG IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS THIS RUN REGARDING
THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS MAINTAIN A TROUGH FEATURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSER
INSPECTION OF THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT SUSPICIOUS...WITH THE
MODEL APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHEN NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL SIDE
WITH THE CONSENSUS IN THIS INSTANCE IN TRACKING THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER
ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DRY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE
COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AGAIN BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE AND
TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH FASTER THAN THE MORE DELIBERATE GFS
SOLUTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE
FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT TOO QUICK THIS RUN. A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THURSDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-DAY WED. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 03JUN/21Z IN FAR
WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......PK
AVIATION.......JKL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1046 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CURRENTLY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ONLY CLOUDS ARE A FEW CIRRUS
RACING OVERHEAD AND A FEW Q DOWN IN SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS OF 130
PM. WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 90
ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...

MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE SOME ISOLD TSRA THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE Q WERE DEVELOPING ALREADY
OVER FAR SE LAS ANIMAS AS OF 130. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE OF CO BY EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO OTHER
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE FAR SE PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
PALMER DVD BY SUNRISE.

TOMORROW...

OVERALL...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE NM BORDER BY
LATE MORNING AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS UPSLOPE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH A 2NDRY FRONT THAT...FOR THE MOST
PART...WILL REMAIN N OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.
LIKEWISE...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO HAPPEN IN OUR CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD. SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN
ALL THE INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHWARD...MOST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS N EL
PASO...N OTERO AND N KIOWA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY. IF STORMS
DO INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...NAM GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3500 J/KG OVER
NE KIOWA COUNTY AT 00Z TOMORROW.

I NEED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IF THE 2NDRY FRONT DOES SURGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY EARLY THU
MORNING. TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUSH WESTWARD INTO CO...WITH NAM CAPES OF
3-4K J/KG NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WED EVENING. HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST TERRAIN FORCED TSRA
DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING. NAM DOES HINT AS SOME TSRA FORMING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE WED NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN PLACE FOR
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOST PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT WED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 40 KTS)

ON THU...FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NM BORDER EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS WAITING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION UNTIL THU EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
HUNCH IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT MAY GIVE THE FRONT A BIGGER
SOUTHWARD SHOVE THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE MARGINAL IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AND WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN
36-48 HR RANGE TO BETTER REFINE BOTH SEVERE THREAT AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LOW
PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHEARING
NORTHEAST LATE SUN/MON. STILL SOME THREAT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...THOUGH 12Z MODELS AREN`T
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY MOVING THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA
NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION REGARDING POSITION OF COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
FRONT DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF WAS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AREA-WIDE
FRI...THEN AGAIN SUN/MON AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
STRENGTHENS. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SLOPES IF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
PLAINS CAN BE PUSHED WESTWARD BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. FORECAST IS RATHER BROAD BRUSHED WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS
THROUGH TUE...WHICH LOOKS OK FOR NOW. TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON CONVECTION...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREE OF EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY TO THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AREA BY 06Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 522 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING
SOME HIGH LEVEL DRYING BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A "MESSY" SITUATION THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOT
UNEXPECTED TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MOIST COLUMN AND SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONIC FLOW (IN JUNE) TO AID IN ASCENT. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANCE
POPS REGION-WIDE TO START OUT THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS
WILL ONLY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. A
MORE SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS PIVOTING NORTHWARD FROM
HARDEE/DESOTA/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN POLK. THESE AREAS
WILL BE THE WET ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS POCKET OF
MORE STEADY RAIN SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIME AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SHOWS
THIS UPGLIDE REGIME BECOMING ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE THESE SHOWERS.

AT THE SURFACE WE SEE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH OF OUR ZONES SEEING A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WE WILL SLOWLY SEE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE AXIS WILL PASS BY MIDDAY AROUND
H5...BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO PASS FURTHER ALOFT.
STILL...A SLOW DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 10KFT
SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT ANY LINGERING SYNOPTIC SUPPORTED SHOWERS.
WILL ALSO GO FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MOST SPOTS TO MORE AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LATER IN THE DAY...A
SCATTERING OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS & STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP.
IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THESE STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP AND THE
DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS AT MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS MAY HAVE
TO BE TRIMMED BACK IF THE DRY AIR ADVECTION ENDS UP MORE
AGGRESSIVE.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL IN NATURE AS
WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MUCH DRIER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD COMPARED TO
EARLY THIS MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE STORMS TRYING TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BUT STRUGGLING TO GROW INTO THE DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO REALLY
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT WITH A FAVORABLE EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME...WILL GIVE A FEW STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT...SO
TO SPEAK...AND FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND FINALLY WASHES OUT THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...DISRUPTED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK GENERALLY EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
ABLE TO UTILIZE AMPLE MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
INCHES OR MORE FROM INTERSTATE 4 SOUTHWARD) TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A BOOST IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UP TO 2 INCHES...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH A BKN-OVC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. IF THIS MID-LEVEL DECK CAN HOLD THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND BELIEVE IT WILL...THEN IT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CIG/VIS ISSUES. BEST SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH ALL TERMINALS SEEING THE RISK
FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE GRADIENT FOR
OUR FORECAST WATER TO THE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAK AND
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

FOG IMPACT...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  30  30
FMY  88  72  91  74 /  60  20  40  30
GIF  89  71  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
SRQ  86  72  88  74 /  30  20  20  30
BKV  89  69  91  70 /  30  30  30  30
SPG  87  75  90  77 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 144 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY
THIS MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP IS INCLUDED FOR ALL THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z FOR TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. APART FROM THE PROB GROUP, VCTS IS INCLUDED AT APF AFTER
10Z TODAY. THE MOISTURE DECREASES LATER ON IN THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS AFTER 04Z ON THU.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...

EARLIER HVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR HAVE WEAKENED. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH REGARDS
TO HVY RAIN/STORMS ARRIVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A FEW MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING LATE, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THE COASTAL
HVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS STAY JUST OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO WELL OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. GREATEST PWATS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH AMOUNTS AOA 2" PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND NASA SPORT IMAGES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DECENT
VORT MAX WAS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MOSTLY
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING,
HOWEVER WITH LIFT INCREASING AS THE SHRTWV NEARS THE PENINSULA,
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE PM AND THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
EAST AND THE GREATER PWATS WILL COME WITH IT OVERNIGHT. WITH
MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM SW TO NE, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, MAY SETUP RIGHT ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. LIKE YESTERDAY,
THE ECMWF PLACES THE QPF MAX OFFSHORE, WHERE THE GFS, WHICH MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, PUTS SOMEWHAT GREATER QPF
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF PRECIP PROBS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS HEAVY AMOUNTS. THUS, OP GFS DOESN`T HAVE
MUCH SUPPORT AMONG THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE FOR WED. THE
BEST CHC FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR URBAN FLOODING WOULD COME WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BE QUITE
DIFFICULT CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME PWAT VALUES WILL BE OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL EASILY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH POPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE H3 LOW WILL DEEPEN AGAIN AND RELOAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FULCRUM BETWEEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/HVY
RAINFALL OR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY ALBEIT WEAK BY LATE WEEKEND,
THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WITH COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS/SEABREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS. THE PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE OVER TEXAS TRIES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND JOIN FORCES WITH A CLOSED H5
HIGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, FORCING THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH.

MARINE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM, AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE YUCATAN THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
VARIABLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A
BIT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WED AND THURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTH
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT 5-15 KTS. MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  88  76 /  80  50  50  40
MIAMI            84  74  89  76 /  80  50  50  40
NAPLES           85  74  89  75 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.

BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BAK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM A NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST LOW.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING A 925-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-
RES CAMS TAKE AN MCS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TRACK ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z HRRR DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z. THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE
850MB WARM NOSE/MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD POP GRID GRADIENT GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES
THAT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES RANK IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE BASED ON OAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDS INCREASING FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONSIDERATIONS NEEDED FOR BOTH
MESO SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MAIN FEATURES TO
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
EDGE EAST WITH TIME. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MOVING EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK H700 WAVE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND 36 HOURS BEGINS TO DIMINISH...AS EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY ALTER THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H850 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA. MESO NMM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWARD
DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE EURO KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TREND FOR NOW. THROUGH FRIDAY THE EURO CONTINUES THE TREND
FOR MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER...WHILE THE GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT/THUNDER OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HIGH MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT H850 IS
HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z FRIDAY. GFS
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO ARE ON THE RISE...IN A RANGE OF 11KFT TO NEAR
13KFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE GFS MAY NOT BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR ITS MORE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF STORM FEATURES...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE GFS WITH ITS MORE
NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OVER IOWA IS SHOWING 4.25 TO 4.75 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE EURO HAS ONLY
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER VALUES SOUTH OF US34. THE EURO
HAS ITS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FROM NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN
MO. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS. FOR NOW HYDRO SITUATION CAN TAKE A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE REMAINS AT 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
ANY TIME...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOCAL URBAN RUNOFF EFFECTS
OR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES. GIVEN TODAYS UNCERTAINTY OF
EVOLUTION OF MESO/SYNOPTIC FEATURE INTERACTIONS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
MILD...75 TO 85 RANGE...WITH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAINY PATTERN WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA TO SPREAD ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE...STILL GREATER CERTAINTY OF THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 340 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SOUTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
BY EVENING BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE DAY. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS MOISTURE RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  93  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  65  92  65 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  96  67  94  67 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  90  67  91  65 /  20  40  20  30
P28  90  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 228 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLNIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS SW KANSAS, ANY OUTFLOW THAT MIGHT SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MORE
FAVORED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN KS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EASTERLY
NEXT WEEK WHETHER THE ELKHART LOW LIFTS NORTH, OR A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS PROVIDING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS. LASTLY, A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED COULD FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THE
WEEKEND.

WITH SUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER, HUMIDITY HIGHER AND LOWS STEADY IN THE 60S, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, CONVECTION LOOKS RELEGATED TO POINTS NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM DRIVES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN NC
KANSAS (RUSH-HAYS AREA AND NORTHWARD). THE GFS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS
THAT SCENARIO. THE  MODEL SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN
THE NEB-KS STATE LINE CORRIDOR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS WARM SECTOR MAX INSTABILITY CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND POP
FORECAST. THE GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
UPPER 80S FOR DODGE CITY, AND THE EC AS WELL REMAINS THE COOLER
MODEL VS. A VERY WARM GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE 90S. ADDITIONALLY BY
THE WEEKEND, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM "BLANCA" IS
MODELS TO FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, ROUGHLY BY THE 400 MB RH FIELDS,
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS COULD INCREASE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AND RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SOUTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
BY EVENING BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE DAY. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS MOISTURE RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AGL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  93  66  88  65 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  96  65  89  64 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  96  67  90  66 /   0  10  30  10
HYS  90  67  85  64 /  20  50  30  30
P28  90  68  89  68 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.

THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG
IS STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF TAF SITES TO SOME DEGREE.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE. KSJS AND KJKL ARE ALREADY
HOVERING AROUND AIRPORT MINS AT TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND LOWEST CIGS
MAY SLOWLY BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME
BRIEF SCT/ING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THINGS
WELL ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOUL
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CLOUDS
WILL ACTUALLY BREAK OR NOT. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE IN THE
TAFS AS A RESULT. ISL TO SCT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
KY...INCLUDING KSJS AND KJKL. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER
SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 351 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.

THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND DRIFT EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IS GOOD...BUT TIMING ON THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN REQUIRES KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS GRIP ON
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG
IS STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF TAF SITES TO SOME DEGREE.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE. KSJS AND KJKL ARE ALREADY
HOVERING AROUND AIRPORT MINS AT TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND LOWEST CIGS
MAY SLOWLY BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME
BRIEF SCT/ING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THINGS
WELL ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOUL
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CLOUDS
WILL ACTUALLY BREAK OR NOT. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE IN THE
TAFS AS A RESULT. ISL TO SCT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
KY...INCLUDING KSJS AND KJKL. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER
SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 424 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

KEY FEATURE TODAY THAT WILL BE PLAYING THE PRIMARY ROLL IN WHAT
HAPPENS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE WELL DEFINED MCV THAT WAS OVER
THE ERN SODAK/NEB BORDER AT 3 AM. THE MCS THAT GENERATED THIS MCV IS
RACING TO THE SE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LLJ WHICH HAS SPLIT AS
IT ENTERED THE MPX AREA...WITH ONE ENHANCED ARE OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GOING ACROSS NRN MN AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH NOW NOSING
INTO SW IOWA...THIS EXPLAINS WHY MOST OF US ENDED UP DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONE BATCH OF STORMS REMAINING NORTH AND THE OTHER BATCH GOING
SOUTH.

TO SAY THE INITIALIZATION OF THE MCV IN THE MODELS WAS POOR WOULD
BEEN AN UNDERSTATEMENT...WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND EVEN THE CAMS FOR REALLY THE WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LOOKING THROUGH THE WEEDS THOUGH...THERE WERE A COUPLE OF MODELS
THAT LOOKED TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO SOME IDEA OF THE MCV THIS MORNING
AT THAT WOULD BE THE RAP/HRRR ALONG WITH THE HIRES ARW. FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE GOTTEN CLOSEST TO
INITIALIZING THIS WAVE...THOUGH THINK IT IS UNDERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF IT GENERATES THROUGH TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE ANY ISSUES
WITH WHAT THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE MCV...IT
IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY SENDING IT TO FAR
NORTH.

WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING IS THAT WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH
PRECIP IN THE MPX CWA UNTIL THE MCV ARRIVES...WHICH WILL BE AROUND
12Z IN OUR SW COUNTIES. AS THE MCV MOVES ENE THROUGH THE
MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THIS MCV WILL BRING WITH IT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE FOLKS SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
BECAUSE OF THAT...OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRETTY LOW TODAY GIVEN
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/RAIN EXPECTED. IF WE WERE TO SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...THINK WHERE THE SPC HAS THEIR MARGINAL RISK IS A
PRETTY GOOD ESTIMATE...IS THIS WOULD BE TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF THE
MCV WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MORE ENHANCED
DESTABILIZATION.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE MCV ACROSS MN IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...EXPECT GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN 8PM AND
MIDNIGHT OVER WRN WI BEFORE THIS WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS WAY TOWARD
THE WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MEANS WE
WILL NOT BE ACHIEVING OUR POTENTIAL GIVEN 925-850 TEMPS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY IN MN...WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. INSTEAD FAVORED THE COOLER END OF THE
MODEL ENVELOP FOR HIGHS TODAY...GOING WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S.
TONIGHT...WE DID SLOW DOWN THE ERN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...SO
WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL FOR ALL BUT WRN AND CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND EVEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL POSITION IS THE REASON FOR THE
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS ALONG I-90 IN SOUTHERN MN AND LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN WI ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE OF PRECIP. EVENTUALLY THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO THERE SHOULD BE A 12-24 HOUR
WINDOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY.

MN/WI DOES REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 830-300MB THICKNESS
RIDGE WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH EVERY SO
OFTEN AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF 20%-40%
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. EVENTUALLY A TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA TAKES A TRIP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CANADA AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH /OR SURPASS/ 80 DEGREES LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. MAJORITY OF LEAD MCS OVER NEB SHOULD DIVE
SOUTH INTO IOWA...BUT LIKE THE IDEA OF THE 3&4Z RUNS OF THE HRRR
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN AND INTO WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME. AFTER
THAT...ALSO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/NMM/ARW AND A COUPLE OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS OF SHOWERS/STORM EXPANDING IN WRN MN AROUND 18Z AS
THE MCV ARRIVES. IN THE TAFS...MENTIONED A SHRA OR VCSH FOR WHEN
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAFS...WHILE VCTS WAS USED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MCV PRECIPITATION. ALSO TRIED
TO BACK TRACK SOME ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. RIGHT
NOW...SUB VFR CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THINK
WE NEED TO START GETTING INTO THAT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS BECOME A BIG CONCERN...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
GET INTO THE NW MPX AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW...HENCE THE LONG
PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS. AFRAID THE HRRR MAY BE OVERDONE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE SEE THIS MORNING...BUT THE HRRR HAS SUPPORT FROM A
COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS...SO LEFT THAT
MENTION IN. AFTERNOON HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS IT IS STILL
TO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH THE MCV. TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHEN THE THREAT FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE GREATEST...PER SREF PROBABILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIG/VIS IN MORNING. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH
TOMORROW.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAVE FACILITATED A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM NOCTURNAL DAKOTAS
CONVECTION HAVE HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT UNTIL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
DAKOTAS /CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...MORE SO IN NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION/...SPREADS EASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN LATER THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE PRESSES IN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
SECONDARY ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 09Z...AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS DO FAVOR STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
THE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY...MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DESTABILIZING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO VERY MARGINAL...SO AT THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...WILL BE RELATED TO ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.

FIRST...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD FROM THE WEST...AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THRU FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS A RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...BOTH THE GFS/EC HAVE HELD OR EVEN
SLOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HOLDING ONTO THE PRECIPITATION LONGER INTO THE EVENING
THAN EXPECTED. BUT...WITH THE FAST FLOW...YOU WOULD EXPECT A
FASTER SOLUTION AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD WITH IT. I DO LIKE THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD EAST/SE
OF OUR CWA AFT 00Z AS THE ANTICIPATED SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FASTER FLOW...MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE SECOND CONCERN IS
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE GFS IS WETTER AND
FURTHER NORTH THEN THE EC/GEM WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE
DRIER EAST/NE FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...KEPT SLIGHT CHC AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
FIELDS.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW CONUS...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL LEAD
TOWARD WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BLENDED SCENARIO...BUT THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO
HOLD ONTO CHC POPS STARTING SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MEAN FLOW FROM
BOTH THE EC/GFS BECOMES MORE NW DUE TO A STRONGER SHRTWV MOVING SE
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THERE REMAINS NO REAL WARM WEATHER IN TERMS OF HIGHS IN THE 80S OR
EVEN 90S BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW AND MEAN ENSEMBLES 50H HEIGHTS
PAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE KEY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
WILL OCCUR ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
EASTERN CANADA...SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...OR A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. MAJORITY OF LEAD MCS OVER NEB SHOULD DIVE
SOUTH INTO IOWA...BUT LIKE THE IDEA OF THE 3&4Z RUNS OF THE HRRR
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS MN AND INTO WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME. AFTER
THAT...ALSO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR/NMM/ARW AND A COUPLE OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS OF SHOWERS/STORM EXPANDING IN WRN MN AROUND 18Z AS
THE MCV ARRIVES. IN THE TAFS...MENTIONED A SHRA OR VCSH FOR WHEN
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAFS...WHILE VCTS WAS USED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL MCV PRECIPITATION. ALSO TRIED
TO BACK TRACK SOME ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. RIGHT
NOW...SUB VFR CIGS ARE CONFINED TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THINK
WE NEED TO START GETTING INTO THAT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS BECOME A BIG CONCERN...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT
GET INTO THE NW MPX AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW...HENCE THE LONG
PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS. AFRAID THE HRRR MAY BE OVERDONE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE SEE THIS MORNING...BUT THE HRRR HAS SUPPORT FROM A
COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS...SO LEFT THAT
MENTION IN. AFTERNOON HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS IT IS STILL
TO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH THE MCV. TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHEN THE THREAT FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE GREATEST...PER SREF PROBABILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIG/VIS IN MORNING. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.

Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.

A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.

Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.

At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Pilots can expect more favorable flight conditions overall at area
terminals through Wednesday. Areas of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in light fog may develop overnight. However any lower
ceilings are expected to lift more quickly on Wednesday. Otherwise
pilots can expect a southeasterly breeze at the surface with high
pressure centered to the east of the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

REMNANTS OF AN MCV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NE/SD WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED NEUTRAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AMPLE H85 MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE WITH +12 TO +14 DEWPOINTS. +12 TO
+16 H70 TEMPS EXIST...AND THIS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF EXISTING DEVELOPMENT.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST WITH KLBF SOUNDING
CONTAINING ABOUT 3800 J/KG OF CAPE.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY STILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...AND LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL
ADJUST ONGOING FOR A LITTLE LATER DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...AND WE MAY SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND NORTH AND EAST...SIMILAR TO
LATEST HRRR DEPICTION. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM...MOIST
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE
METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO
THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE AID OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF STORMS SO HAVE THIS MENTIONED...THEN TREND TO LIKELY
POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA
AN THE MCS SHOULD ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST . SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY TRY TO RE-FORM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE
HIGHS FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/UNSTABLE
AIR (3000J/KG) IN PLACE AND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ADDED TO THE
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.

THE REAL WARM TEMPERATURES STAY TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNCAPPED AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION.  THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS COVERAGE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY.  HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 76 TO 82.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MORE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT KOFK
AREA 07-09Z...AND KOMA/KLNK 11-14Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND COULD
LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 16Z.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT
STORM CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY 21Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH MORE
SPECIFIC TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...

AT 02Z AND AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THE CLUSTER OF
PREVIOUSLY SEVERE-WARNED STORMS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
THEN DRAPED SSW INTO THE SC UPSTATE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY ESE.

THE 00Z GSO RAOB SAMPLED THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENVIRONMENT THAT
SUPPORTED EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DIABATIC COOLING AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAVE SINCE DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO AROUND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS...AS
INDICATED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...WHILE AN AXIS OF A LITTLE
BETTER THAN 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER FAR EASTERN SC
AND SE NC...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE  A PERIOD OF MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW
THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY COLLAPSE SLOWLY SE WITH THE
SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A DEEP MOISTURE FEED IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LOW...FED BY THE CONFLUENCE
OF A PAIR OF MOIST PLUMES FROM BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST
PACIFIC...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST/UNCAPPED/AND (ALBEIT) WEAKLY
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT - ONE
SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE RE-GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND THIS LEAD ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND INDEED THE LATEST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SC/GA MAY
DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TOWARD MORNING.

NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK INSTABILITY...SO HEAVY RAIN AMIDST THE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PROVE THE LONE HAZARD. OTHERWISE...POST-FRONTAL STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA ON TUE SHOULD CONTINUE A SIMILAR
TREND INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A LOW OVERCAST IS CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN/IN THE LINGERING WARM
SECTOR. LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S NEAR 70S S AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CEILINGS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER TO MUCH MORE THAN MVFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY. LIFT
GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP STEADY PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE TRIAD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE. POINTS EAST WILL STILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S HOWEVER. CHANCES
FOR LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

WET WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THU... WITH THE
SYNOPTIC CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO WED WITH A NARROW STABLE SURFACE
WEDGE OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN... ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE
DRIFTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER... INTO THE FAR WRN CAROLINAS. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED (1000-2000 J/KG AREAWIDE ON THE
NAM... SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE GFS) WITH SIMILAR WEAK DPVA ROTATING
AROUND THE E/NE SIDE OF THE LOW... POSSIBLE UPPER DIVERGENCE (MAINLY
NE)... PW AROUND 150% OF NORMAL... AND ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE GENERATING THE
GREATEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE ERN AND NRN SECTIONS...
NEAREST THE BOUNDARY... REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING TO WORK INTO SW SECTIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED (SW) TO NUMEROUS (ELSEWHERE) SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS... PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE WEDGE
AXIS... AND FACTORING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP... WILL KEEP HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL... MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ABOVE NORMAL PW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... WILL TREND
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN BUT NOT OUT THU NIGHT AS THE BY-NOW-WEAKENING
UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN CLIMO FRI... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ZONE ALL PUSH
SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
DISPERSE BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... BUT ONCE THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS BREAKS UP AND LIFTS... WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST... BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN FORCING
FOR ASCENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WILL KEEP NEAR-CLIMO 30-40%
CHANCES MAINLY EAST. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LATE-DAY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION... WHICH MAY
DROP SLOWLY SE INTO THE NW CWA LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRI NIGHT BASED ON THE WEAK NW FLOW. WE`RE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
FRIDAY`S MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY (OR ITS REMNANT MCV) DROP THROUGH THE
WRN/CENTRAL OH VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH AT THIS PACE THIS FEATURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
TO AFFECT US ON SAT. AT ANY RATE... WILL INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NW CWA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

IF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV COMES TO PASS AND MOVES AS MODELS
SUGGEST... IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT...
POTENTIALLY RELOADING THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BUT WITH THE OVERALL NOAM AND WRN ATLANTIC FLOW WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING AT THESE LATITUDES FRI/SAT... IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
AND TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. BY SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE POTENT NRN STREAM ENERGY ESE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUN/MON... AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LIKELY INCREASING SHEAR ENOUGH
OVER OUR AREA FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF STORMS MON INTO TUE. AFTER
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY (BEHIND THE POTENTIAL DEPARTING
MCV BUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH)... THE GFS DEPICTS RISING
MUCAPE VALUES EACH DAY MON/TUE TO 1000-2500 J/KG. WILL RAMP UP LATE-
DAY STORM CHANCES (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG) MON/TUE. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64
LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE CEILINGS DROP...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS. AT KRDU AND
KRWI...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS MAY LIFT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IF SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY LOCK IN THE LOW CEILINGS
LONGER THAN INDICATED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THAT WE
WILL SEE AN APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TODAY.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE KFAY VICINITY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORMS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CONVECTION BY LATE
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THE SFC FRONT IS ABLE TO DRIFT INTO THE
SANDHILLS...THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NEWD
AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS OVERTAKES OUR
AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONGLOMERATION OF CIGS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR EAST CLOUDS WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF IFR/MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME REDUCTION IN
VIS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV/KCSV...AS WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF ANY CLOUDS TONIGHT AS ANY
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE 18Z.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS
ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO AM UPDATING THE
GRIDS AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WE`LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT SCATTER OUT,
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT, SO WILL ISSUE A FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE CHANGE IN
SKY CONDITION.

ALSO TAKING OUT THE EVENING POP`S WE HAD FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THAT THE RADAR SCOPE HAS BEEN PPINE ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT
LATER ON TONIGHT, SO WE`LL LEAVE THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.

BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  94  61  93 /   0  10   0  10
TULIA         63  92  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     63  91  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     64  95  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   63  96  63  94 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  96  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1042 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND AGREE
THAT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED...THUS THE
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. 00Z NAM SHOWS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE PRECIPITATION FREE. BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES
UP IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT...THUS AREAS
OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO KIMBALL LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE WEATHER AS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER CELLS SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUSK WYOMING TO BRIDGEPORT
NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AN MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...NOT MUCH GOING ON SINCE
DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY MOVED INTO MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...AND EVEN CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LI/S...LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE 12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE NEW 18Z NAM IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
HOWEVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...SO THE QUESTION IS HOW DEEP WILL THIS SATURATED LAYER BE
AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ACTUALLY SUPPRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT. IT MAY STAY CLOUD UP AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE
RANGE...BUT BELIEVE THE DEPTH WILL BE SHALLOW. SUNSHINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...A CAP INVERSION BELOW 700MB
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION INITIALLY...BUT ONCE THIS CAP IS ERODEDTHE
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL VERY RAPID ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE OR JUST WEST. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL DUE TO THE RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE TSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
REMAINS IN PLACE. SUBTLE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WILL DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH GENERALLY EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS. THE MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES BUT WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MANY
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED GENERALLY FROM KAIA TO KDGW TO KRWL AT 10 PM.
THIS FRONT WILL LAY UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT HIGH FOR KCYS AND KSNY TO GO DOWN IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS 09Z. NOT SO MUCH FOR KCDR...KAIA AND KBFF.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BE WIDESPREAD
INTO EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AIRPORTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH GREEN
FUELS AND A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS DRIEST DAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE TODAY WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS WEEK AS UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS LIMIT THEIR RELEASES. HOWEVER...MITCHELL WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM
HENRY TO MINATARE WILL REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

RIVER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT
LARAMIE...WITH LEVELS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON
FRIDAY. STAGE AT FORT LARAMIE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 1002 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT LOBE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WHICH WAS ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER TN/GA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT HAS SPREAD OVER THE
PENINSULA...BUT MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL HAD PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.  THE VORT LOBE SHOULD MOVE SLOW ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
MORNING CLOUDINESS LINGERED BUT POCKETS OF HEATING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL PATTERN HAS QUITE LIGHT WINDS AS WESTERN END
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS SEAWARD OF THE AREA AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE YUCATAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...SO EVEN THOUGH THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED BY MORNING CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
INLAND PROGRESS TO PUSH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN NOT DEVELOPING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIRRORS THE GFS OUTPUT.  WITH
THE VORT LOBE SLIDING THROUGH THAT AREA...HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN TO
30 PERCENT WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF.  WILL LEAVE
LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE.

&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE VFR CEILINGS BUT LOCAL MVFR AS DAYTIME
HEATING CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OR JUST INLAND FROM THEM.  NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE DRYING ALOFT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
STILL DEVELOP INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN E/SE DURING
THE DAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...SO
NO WIND/SEAS PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.  SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THE CAPE NORTHEASTWARD
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
PUSH UP FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...ULRICH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1037 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, BUT CLEAR
SKIES LOSING GROUND TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MORE LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CU FIELD DEVELOPED EARLY AND RATHER DENSE ON SAT
IMAGERY. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AND ADJUSTED
THE HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST,
HOWEVER, SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY/THE SFC RIDGE. HRRR REMAINS LARGELY DRY ON THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.

BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
HELPED PRODUCE MORNING FOG AND/OR MVFR CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AFFECT
PIA, SPI, DEC AND CMI THROUGH 14Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS REFORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING WEST OF I-55. STORMS APPROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH
WESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING NEAR PEORIA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THE PIA TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10KT OR LESS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 650 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.

BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
HELPED PRODUCE MORNING FOG AND/OR MVFR CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AFFECT
PIA, SPI, DEC AND CMI THROUGH 14Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS REFORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING WEST OF I-55. STORMS APPROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH
WESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING NEAR PEORIA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THE PIA TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10KT OR LESS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 552 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
18-30KT THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-24KT THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KHYS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  65  92  65 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  97  67  94  67 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  90  67  91  65 /  20  40  20  30
P28  91  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MUCH OF
HARLAN COUNTY IS ALREADY SEEING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE...JKL VWP FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING SHOWED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 3K MSL. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP WITH BREAKING UP THE SHALLOW CLOUDINESS OVER AT
LEAST THE SE PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1800 TO 1900 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE OCCURRED. SO BASED ON CURRENT LOCAL ANALYSIS HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO FORECAST. SPC ALSO HAS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED
IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZFP AND HWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.

THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG STILL
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW CIGS AND FOG HAS CAUSED KSJS AND KJKL TO GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND...LIFTING TO MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES...LIKE KJKL AND KSJS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CAUSE LITTLE
IMPACTS. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS WILL
SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS THESE
TWO WILL HAVE HAS BEEN POORLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS...SO JUST WENT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE OVERNIGHT SET UP /WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...ETC/.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 706 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.

THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THIS CLOUD DECK...FOG STILL
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW CIGS AND FOG HAS CAUSED KSJS AND KJKL TO GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND...LIFTING TO MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES...LIKE KJKL AND KSJS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CAUSE LITTLE
IMPACTS. THEN...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS WILL
SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT IMPACTS THESE
TWO WILL HAVE HAS BEEN POORLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS...SO JUST WENT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE OVERNIGHT SET UP /WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS...ETC/.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.

Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.

A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.

Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.

At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings for SGF through 14z with an
improvement by mid to late morning. At BBG...expect LIFR ceilings
through 14z with an improvement by mid to late morning. All TAF
sites will see VFR by midday with scattered clouds between 3k to
4k by the afternoon. Some convection is possible across central
Missouri this afternoon but should stay north of the 3 main TAF
sites for today. There may be some light MVFR fog and ceilings again for
BBG late tonight after 09z. Winds will remain southeasterly around
10 knots or less through the next 24 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 705 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.

TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.

WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...

TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THESE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY EXISTS AT LEAST WITHIN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
KGRI/KEAR...MAINLY DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH WILL LINGER A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE RAIN /STORM-FREE BEFORE THE POTENTIAL NEXT
ROUND FIRES UP. AT LEAST FOR NOW...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SUB-VFR CEILING OR VISIBILITY OTHER THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR SURFACE WIND...A MAINLY EASTERLY
COMPONENT AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE AREA REMAINING NORTH OF THE MAIN WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. OBVIOUSLY THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES COULD
GREATLY AFFECT THIS. IN CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF
ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS FOR
NOW ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST FEW HOURS IS BEING COVERED WITH A
GENERIC VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.

TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.

WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...

TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THESE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY EXISTS...MAINLY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 1-2
HOURS...AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...STORMS WILL PRODUCE
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS INTO AT LEAST THE 30-40 KT
RANGE...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAINLY
AT KGRI. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A VARIETY OF FORECAST
MODEL SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL
BE RAIN/STORM-FREE...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE ARRIVES BY THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
(VCTS) MENTION FOR THIS LATER-PERIOD ACTIVITY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SUB-VFR CEILING OR VISIBILITY OTHER
THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...A SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTION WILL LIKELY SET IN EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF STORMS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15KT. IN CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF
ADJUSTMENTS/AMENDMENTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1016 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SKY COVER NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.

THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POCKETS OF
IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z WHEN ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN ON LOWERING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ERODING THAT DECK. PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. AFTER THAT...VFR
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 643 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.

THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POCKETS OF
IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z WHEN ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN ON LOWERING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ERODING THAT DECK. PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. AFTER THAT...VFR
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 658 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BLOB FEATURING LEADING
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND A WELL DEVELOPED STRATIFORM AREA/MESOHIGH.
COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT AT AN ACCELERATED
RATE EASTWARD...WORKING WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT THE
LEADING EDGE. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF CELLS THREATEN SOME SMALL HAIL
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG THE LEADING LINE...BUT MODE HAS BEEN
GENERALLY LOW CENTROID AND MINIMAL TIME SPENT WITH ANY ELEVATED
CORE. WILL SEE THE MCV WITH THIS CONVECTION TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD SW MN THROUGH MIDDAY. STRATIFORM
REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME HEADING TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
THIS UPPER CENTER SHOULD FOCUS AS LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDDAY AS IT EXITS THE AREA.

OVERALL...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGED BY FACT THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
REPLICATE REALITY. HOWEVER...SEEMS THAT RUC HAS MOST ACCURATE
PICTURE OF THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WELL
AS BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND BY LATE DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PACE
SOUTHEAST...SLOWING UP A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LOCATION NEAR A
KMJQ TO KLCG LINE. OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD...BUT
TREND OF 06Z NAM WAS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD.  MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS TO WHERE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
FATHOM THE EXTREME INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ THAT SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND RATHER SEE THAT SLIGHT RIDGING
BEHIND MORNING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
LIMIT CONVECTION IN A ENVIRONMENT OF LESSER INSTABILITY. WILL KICK
UP THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH OF A VERMILLION TO WINDOM LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY EASE SOUTHWARD IN THE EVENING.
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL/WIND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK TO EXPECT THIS
TO BE THE CASE...WITH THE INSTABILITY VALUES ALREADY A BIT IN
QUESTION.

CONFIDENCE IN LESSER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL IS A BIT STRONGER FOR
TONIGHT...AS DOMINANCE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN I-80 AND I-70 TO
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL MEAN THAT CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. MORE STABLE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MEAN MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ON THE MODERATE SIDE AS THE AREA IS A BIT DEEP INTO THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALSO PRETTY WEAK AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS MARGINAL
AT BEST. DOES AT LEAST LOOK WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THIS WAVE EXITING AND MORE ENERGY BUILDING UP FROM
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. NEITHER NEED VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS A WAVE INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO REAL
COOL AIR COMING DOWN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...MAINLY JUST
ENHANCED MIXING...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EACH DAY...LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MCV ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CARRY ALONG A CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MODELS DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH THE ENTIRE SCENARIO...AND
BIGGEST AVIATION ISSUE NOT COVERED WELL IS THE MASS OF LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD...
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 1002 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORCAL. CLOUD BUILD
UPS ARE GETTING GOING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTH INTO
EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE FOCUSED IN THESE AS SHOW BY SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORCAL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S
AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IS PRESENTLY APPROACHING 130W AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NORCAL TONIGHT, THEN CLOSE-OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
UPSWING IN MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE CLOSED LOW THAT DROPPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS NEVADA AND EXTEND
BACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WRAPAROUND EAST TO NORTHEAST UPPER
FLOW WILL STILL BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY LOOK TO BE IN PLAY. A SECONDARY LOW THEN
DEVELOPS OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN PLACE OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT.
TRAJECTORIES OF THESE TYPES TO CUTOFF LOWS ARE DIFFICULT, SO STAY
TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HINGE ON RESULTING CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE, BUT WILL GENERALLY
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO DO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. 60%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY (MAINLY
KSAC/KMHR)THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13-16Z. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...UP TO 12 KTS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 515 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT...BUT STILL WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME.  AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE
UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED LI/S REMAIN NEAR -4 IN THE
CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND. THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ALSO FAVORS HAIL.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FA
DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY DECREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. LOW CIGS
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 206 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS THAT HAS
OCCURRED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY FARTHER NORTH. ALSO...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THIS AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -4 IN THE CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND.
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ALSO FAVORS HAIL.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FA
DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY DECREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. LOW CIGS
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 238 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AS
CONVECTIVE TOPS APPROACH 35K FT NEAR THE NV BORDER AS OF 2 PM.
RADAR WAS SHOWING EXPANDING ECHOES FROM SE OWYHEE THROUGH TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES....WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES APPROACHING JARBIDGE AS
OF 2 PM. S-CENTRAL IDAHO IS WHERE GFS SHOWS 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR AND -4C LI WITH THE RAP INDICATING SOME CAPE TO 400J/KG...FOR
A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LIFT EXITS THE
AREA TO THE NE LEAVING THE INTERSTATE-84 CORRIDOR FROM BAKER TO
TWIN FALLS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. AREAS ALONG THE NV BORDER NEARER
THE LOW WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATE
SHOWER THERE. THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS SW IDAHO AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS SE OREGON EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER. SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES OF THE NV BORDER
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MAINLY EAST
OF A MCCALL- IDAHO CITY LINE...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE PRECIP-FREE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE A SURGE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING HAS VARIED AND HOW MUCH PRECIP AND
WHERE THE MAX WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN STILL. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WORK
AROUND THE LOW FROM OFFSHORE ON THE SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON UP OVER NV THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS. THIS COULD FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...OR IF
UPPER SUPPORT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE MAX COULD END UP OVER
S-CENTRAL OR CENTRAL IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLE TO TONE DOWN SOME INCH IN
ABOUT 12 HR VALUES SEEN IN SOME RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRIDAY DUE
TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES /AROUND 0.7 INCHES/ AND SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENTS /10-15 MPH/.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO STAY ROUGHLY STATIONARY OVER NEVADA AND SLOWLY GET
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
POSITIONED  WELL TO TAP INTO AND BRING NORTH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH /NOW HURRICANE/ BLANCA. AT THE SAME TIME... AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR AND BE SLIGHTLY
FOLDED OVER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT. THE BORDER OF INFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES /LAYING
NW TO SE/ WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA SEES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...BUT LEFTOVER
MOISTURE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNSET AND BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 15 KTS OR
LESS...BUT GUSTY UP TO 35 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WEST 10 KTS...THEN AFTER 04/10Z...SOUTHEAST 10-15
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1245 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, BUT CLEAR
SKIES LOSING GROUND TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MORE LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CU FIELD DEVELOPED EARLY AND RATHER DENSE ON SAT
IMAGERY. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AND ADJUSTED
THE HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST,
HOWEVER, SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY/THE SFC RIDGE. HRRR REMAINS LARGELY DRY ON THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ON FOG FORMATION IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
YESTERDAY, AND NOW SITS EXTENDS ACROSS IL JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY WORK TO PULL THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN
SE IL TOWARD CENTRAL IL. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM FROM IN AREAS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE TO
LINCOLN. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING LIGHT FOG ALREADY FORMING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2-
3F...SO SOME CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TOWARD EXPANDING OF FOG COVERAGE
AND DENSITY. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF
LINCOLN THROUGH 13Z/8AM. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON ANY DENSE FOG FORMING,
BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FOR TRAVEL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FOCUS ON AN MCS IN THE PLAINS ROLLING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL SEE INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE STORM COMPLEX REACHES NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
18Z, THEN DISSIPATES BY 21Z AS IT REACHES EASTERN MISSOURI. WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY RAIN OR STORMS IN ILLINOIS, JUST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH A RISE OF 2-4C IN 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. THE WARMER HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED IN OUR SW
COUNTIES, WEST OF LINCOLN TO SPRINGFIELD, WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARMING WILL INCREASE THE SOONEST.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AND LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING HOLDING FAIRLY STRONG, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC STORM COMPLEXES TO DRAW
CLOSER BEFORE DISSIPATING.

BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL TOP THE
WEAKENING UPSTREAM RIDGE, PROVIDING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO SIGNAL THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, IT IS PRETTY TOUGH TO PIN-POINT
PERIODS COMPLETELY FREE FROM PRECIPITATION RISK. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXPLICIT
TIMING/TRACK OF DISCRETE SHORT WAVES DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING JUST
ENOUGH FOR A BKN CU FIELD...BUT THE CIRRUS STARTING TO BLOCK SOME
OF THE HEATING IN THE WEST...CONCENTRATING THE CU IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. CLEARING OF THE CU EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE DAY, AND SCT/BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE. WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR
REDUCED VIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 333 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH HAS
LED TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.  ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI.  1 MINUTE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A NUMBER
OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE REMNANTS OF AN UNDULAR BORE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH AND AT 19 Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.  THIS HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE OF CUMULONIMBUS ALONG IT.

THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMCI-KMHK-KHYS- NORTHWEST OF KGCK
WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTH...PASSING EAST OF KHQG-KGUY-KDHT.

KRC
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION.

THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY THAT WAS VERY NOTICEABLE EARLIER TODAY
SOUTH OF THE MCS THAT IS NOW IN MISSOURI...HAS SINCE BEEN RETREATING
NORTHWARD.  CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE...NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY.

MLCAPE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW APPROACHING
3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 35-40 KNOTS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY.  AS A
RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE AND ORGANIZED.

GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.  THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS BEING
MADE BY SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS THAT THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW MAY ALSO CONVECT.  THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT LAPS IS
SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THAT
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT THAT HIGH.  WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS.  THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THESE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MOVING EAST...MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.

THE RIDGE REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY...WITH SO CALLED RIDGE RIDERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNLESS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY HIGH.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST IT WILL WILL BE
COOLER AND WETTER THAN FORECAST.  IF IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WE
WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

EXTREMELY CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST...WITH ONLY LAST NIGHTS
ARW-EAST MODEL HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IT SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF KEMP MID AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTION EXPANDING/DEVELOPING ON BOTH SIDES OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SO KSLN/KHUT WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY AREAS FOR STORMS.
HOWEVER INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AT KHUT. MUCH MORE LIKELY STORMS WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AS
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVERGENCE FROM
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KRSL/KSLN
WHERE CAPPING WOULD IS WEAKER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  68  88 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  90  69  89 /  30  20  20  20
NEWTON          68  88  67  87 /  30  20  20  20
ELDORADO        69  88  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  89  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  90  67  87 /  40  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      68  90  67  89 /  30  20  30  20
SALINA          69  90  68  88 /  40  30  40  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  68  88 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  88  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            68  87  68  86 /  30  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  88  68  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 235 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, THE ARW AND NMM ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION THAN IS THE 12KM NAM AT THIS TIME FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM PRETTY WELL SPLITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND DEEP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION
IS THE NMM WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION BOTH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY FEEDING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO WESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A MODELED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT
MAY BE LIMITED IN VERTICAL EXTENT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THE ARW
SUPPORTS SMALL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE EVENING AS WELL.

AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UNKNOWN MESOSCALE FEATURES, THE FORECASTER
CERTAINTY DROPS OF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MID LEVEL BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN TOT HE NORTHER OF OUR FORECAST  AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS WARM, AND MAY REMAIN THE
GENERAL FOCUS AREA FOR CONTINUE MCS DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF MOS TREND FOR DAILY
MAXIMUM T, ALTHOUGH THE TREND COULD BE CHANGING AS WE ARE HEADING
OUT OF THE RECENT RELATIVELY COOL, VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD. THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SEEMED TO HAVE HANDLED
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE BEST RECENTLY AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID TO
UPPER 60S LOWS DURING THE MID LEVEL TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AT KHYS, SOUTH
WINDS AT KDDC AND LIGHT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KGCK. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDDC/KGCK OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  93  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  66  92  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67  94  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  67  91  67  87 /  40  20  30  30
P28  68  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 116 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AT KHYS, SOUTH
WINDS AT KDDC AND LIGHT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KGCK. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDDC/KGCK OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  93  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  66  92  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67  94  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  67  91  67  87 /  40  20  30  30
P28  68  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPDATED NDFD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH TO LOWER
70S AND HIGHS IN THE FAR SOUTH TO NEAR 80. FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS CONTINUED TO AID IN EROSION OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHERE LOW
OVERCAST SKIES HAVE PERSISTED. PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK
NW. AT THE SAME TIME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER VA AND SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN PIKE COUNTY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MUCH OF
HARLAN COUNTY IS ALREADY SEEING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE...JKL VWP FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING SHOWED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 3K MSL. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP WITH BREAKING UP THE SHALLOW CLOUDINESS OVER AT
LEAST THE SE PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1800 TO 1900 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SUNSHINE OCCURRED. SO BASED ON CURRENT LOCAL ANALYSIS HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO FORECAST. SPC ALSO HAS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED
IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZFP AND HWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS MUCH OF KY...AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOW GONE DOWN TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SJS AND PIKEVILLE. EXPECT
THE FOG TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE FAR
EAST TO BE BACK TO A MILE OR ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECTED THESE
ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OBSERVED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...GIVEN THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUN/HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE
MORE TODAY. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE AGAIN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE ONES WE
SAW YESTERDAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE AGAIN...LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO MORE
ISOLATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE INSTABILITY...
TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER POORLY...SO ITS HARD TO PUT FAITH
ON ANY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM A MODEL. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SEEMED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST...AND LIKELY NO POPS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. LEANED MORE TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THESE
THREE...WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF SUPERBLEND ADDED IN.

THERE IS NO PUSH FOR MOISTURE TO EXIT BY TONIGHT...SO WILL GO FOR
ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS ONCE MORE...MUCH AS IT IS CURRENTLY AT
7Z. THIS WOULD PUT LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS IT TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. JUST BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODELS...EXPECT IT TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND RESULTING BETTER
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...BASED ON THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LACKING. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMED TO BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL THE RIDGE
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THIS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE
FEATURED WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
COUPLE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND WILL EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. BY SUNDAY A MENTION STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WELL AND WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WITH WARM
SOUTHERN AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS DRIFTING SOUTH...AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
WESTERN TIP OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE COVERED
EASTERN KY ARE ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT
DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED OVER VA AND TN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING A TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON
IS VERY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE SJS AND JKL TAFS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SO
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR OR IFR LATER
TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES THURSDAY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS/JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CARIBOU ME

 650 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STUBBORN 850MB HANGING ON ACORSS THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS RH
LEVELS AT 850MB DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 02Z...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING STEADY IN THE
40S...UNDER A MARITIME AIRMASS THINKING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET WIDESPREAD FROST WITH ONLY 4 HOURS OF CLOUD FREE SKIES
TONIGHT. JUST KEPT THE PATCHY FROST GOING IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH,
EXPECT MOST OF TODAY`S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. THIS IS THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, AND SO EXPECT IT`LL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER,
THE USUAL SHLETERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID
30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DON`T EXPECT THE FROST
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY, KEEPING SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
INLAND. INLAND SITES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS.. SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
LATER IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THEREAFTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.


SHORT TERM: WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 FOR WIND
GRIDS. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 1-2
FEET FROM 150 DEGREES/8 SECONDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-10 FEET/9 SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/DUMONT/MIGNONE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 337 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSISTED BY THE MCV
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 03.18Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY 01Z...AND
THROUGH ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA /NEAR
LADYSMITH/ BY 06Z. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO THEN LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS FROM 55 TO 60
DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER WEAK ENERGY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

EMBEDDED SHRTWV IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN THE SW CONUS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN TERMS OF HIGHER CHC/S OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OR BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. PAST FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE W-NW LEADING TO A STRONGER FRONT/SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

SHRTWV IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF SW U.S. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...LEADING TO HIGHER
CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND SOUTH OF THIS
AREA. CONCERNS ON THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
MOVES...AND WHETHER THE SHRTWV MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LEADING TO HIGHER CHC/S INTO MN. THERE HAS BEEN TRENDS OF
BOTH THE EC/GFS OF DRYING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF MPX CWA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT NE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DRIER CONDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS MOVES...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGH CHC/S SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHRTWV
AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. TIMING IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SO LEFT HIGH CHC POPS OR LIKELY IN THE
FORECAST. PAST SUNDAY...A DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY IN A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME. NOT UNTIL MIDWEEK DOES ANY SIGNS THAT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SHRA/TSRA.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE THE SITES AT TIMES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...WITH PREVALENT MVFR CIGS. BY SUNSET...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN WI...WITH ALL SITES DRY BY 09Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
BR AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z.

KMSP...
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS THROUGH AT TAF
TIME...WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK UNTIL THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP...DROPPING BELOW 1700FT BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. SHOULD SEE
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THU.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WIND NNE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -TSRA. WIND SW 7-10 KTS BECOMING NW 7-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an MCS later tonight into Thursday.

Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17Z HRRR does weaken
this complex as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this evening.

Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving MCS into the forecast area.

Otherwise, expect more summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.

Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG taf: Extensive clouds at times, but
generally VFR conditions are expected in the near term. An area of
thunderstorms to the north will need to be watched, but for now
have no thunder in any of the tafs. Guidance is hinting at some
late night fog/stratus over some of the area toward 09z-10z again
and have mvfr ceilings and visibility to cover this for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The MCS across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.

Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance PoPs for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the HRRR pan out.

A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.

Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another MCS with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
MCS could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the SPC marginal area
looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. PoPs were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.

At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on MCS evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where MCS outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG taf: Extensive clouds at times, but
generally VFR conditions are expected in the near term. An area of
thunderstorms to the north will need to be watched, but for now
have no thunder in any of the tafs. Guidance is hinting at some
late night fog/stratus over some of the area toward 09z-10z again
and have mvfr ceilings and visibility to cover this for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 344 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THEN OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SECONDARY PROBLEM.

CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS TENDED TO FOUL UP LOW LEVEL WIND
REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FIGURING OUT WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORM REGENERATION IS A BIT OF A CONCERN. OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES OFF KTWX RADAR SHOW STABLE LAYER BEHIND
OUTFLOW HAD MIXED OUT AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW RETURNED.
FARTHER WEST...KGLD VAD SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER
THERE. MEANWHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AS MID 60S DEW POINTS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MUCAPE VALUES WERE TICKING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PLENTY OF INSOLATION OCCURRING IN THAT
AREA TOO...AND BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WAS FORMING. A SHORTWAVE WAS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN RAP 500MB ANALYSIS MOVING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 9C/KM.

SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION
POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER COOLING/FORCING. A GOOD MAJORITY
OF MESOSCALE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL...OFFERING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN EARLIER RUNS. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED AS PER KGLD VWP...BUT BECOMING SURFACE
BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHEN MUCAPE HANGS AROUND 2000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TRAINING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO SATURATION BEFORE EARLY MORNING
RAINS DUMPED OVER AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS. SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUS WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING MARKEDLY AND BULK SHEAR ALREADY NEAR
40KT...WOULD EXPECT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE AND TAP INTO LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES/HELICITY COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING. AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT TO FIRE
CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
ROLLING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE.

BY MID THURSDAY MORNING AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE WINDING DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE THE NEXT ROUND FIRES.
SYNOPTICALLY...GFS/NAM SUGGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A
BIT...SHUNTING SHORTWAVES/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL PLAY THIS TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY FILLS AND SHALLOW TROUGH
SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SETTLE SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH INVASION
SUNDAY. IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY THE GFS SUGGEST FRONT
WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO
BRING A DRY PERIOD INTO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK AND KOMA BY 20Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 03Z. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. KLNK LOOKS TO
HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STORMS STARTING
03Z-06Z THEN EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z. KOMA AND KOFK MAY SEE STORMS
AFTER 06Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 15Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 136 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG
OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA AND ALONG OR NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 IN KANSAS. SOME FORECAST MODELS HAVE INITIATION NORTH
OF THIS ZONE AND SOME SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BUT THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS FOR INITIATION IS WITHIN THIS REGION OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERALLY FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11 PM. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCREET SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
STORMS LIFE CYCLE PRIOR TO EVENTUAL MCS EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ETC.

TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...WHILE THE FORECAST CARRIES AT LEAST
50-60 PERCENT "LIKELY" CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...THIS
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TO PINPOINT
THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION/LIKELIHOOD. OF COURSE...IT
DOESN/T HELP THAT SEVERAL PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS OF BOTH THE
COARSER DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING VARIETY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVEN GETTING THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS
"RIGHT"...SO IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN FORCES ONE TO DO MORE
"FORECASTING BY NOWCASTING" THAN USUAL.

WITHOUT A DOUBT...THE NUMBER ONE 1 CONCERN DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED...IF NOT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY CENTERED FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD.
LARGELY AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN FOCUSING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA DESERVES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT
RISK FOR NOW. PER THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID)...HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT GO-ROUND...BUT WITH
A POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...GENERALLY WEST-EAST QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...ALONG WITH RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR TWO EITHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SEMI-DISCRETE MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AND THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ESSENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO AT-
TIMES NEAR-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED WEST-EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...LARGELY DRIVEN BY FORCING
FROM A PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A HEALTHY 35-45 LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVIDENT AT
850MB. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INSTANCES OF NEAR-SEVERE
CRITERIA WIND/HAIL THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING
FAIRLY WORKED-OVER IT WAS DECIDED THAT CONTINUING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS LIKELY NOT WARRANTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
SHOVED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN KS AT THIS
TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING IN AFFECTED AREAS HAVE LARGELY
AVERAGED UNDER 1 INCH...BUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...

TODAY: AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS/WEAKENS AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND 00Z 4KM
NSSL WRF THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART OR AT LEAST DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY SET UP A
DECENT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY GO "DRY" IN ALL AREAS FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THUS LINGERED A SLIGHT
CHANCE 20 POP MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE TAKING A CHANCE ON A PRECIP-FREE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH REGARDING
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD
BE HELD DOWN COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES NOT RETURN NORTH VERY FAR...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM
FROM NEAR-80 NORTH TO UPPER 80S MAINLY IN KS ZONES. ALONG THESE
SAME LINES...FORECASTED WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TOO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOT ENOUGH EASTERLY IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT BEHAVES. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN ALOFT...AND INTERACTS WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO FEATURE 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE
AND AT LEAST 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OF COURSE...MID LEVEL TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BECOME PRETTY TOASTY AS WELL WITH 700MB READINGS OF
12-13+ C POTENTIALLY CREATING A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP TO OVERCOME.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE BIG ISSUE BUT ALSO QUESTION SURROUNDS
JUST HOW WIDESPREAD A SEVERE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOMES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AGAIN RAMPS
UP...BUT WITH THINGS IN THEORY STARTING OUT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THEY DID THIS PAST EVENING/NIGHT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT
FAVORED SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW-DRIVEN PROPAGATION WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST COVERAGE VERSUS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHILE THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MODELS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM FROM NSSL AND NCEP...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF ACTUALLY PAINT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT. THE BOTTOM
LINE...NOWHERE CAN BE RULED OUT FROM STORM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND
WITH CONVECTION BEING ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS ITS
UNFORTUNATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ENOUGH IN LOCATION TO
PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN 50-60 POPS AT THIS TIME. AS IS
TYPICAL...EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
REPORT COULD EASILY SPRING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT VERSUS THIS PAST NIGHT...IT SHOULD LARGELY
FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THAT MAINLY STAYED DRY TONIGHT...AND
BESIDES...AS A WHOLE MOST OF THE CWA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT AT THIS TIME. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE
WESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO FILL...THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW
GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT MAY PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
CONVECTION UNFOLDS WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENTLY MODELS MAINTAINING THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEB TO
SOUTHERN KS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS
STORMS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

UNTIL WE SEE THE CHANGE IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DECENT CHANCES
FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

NAILING DOWN THE WIND DIRECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG
AVIATION CONCERNS. THE WIND HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE DUE TO OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. FOR THE TAF...WENT
WITH THE EXPECTED PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE RATHER VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI AND KEAR
WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 3 AM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 122 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD SHIELD OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. UPDATED SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND LOWERED SKY COVER NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY MID MORNING NORTH
CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.

THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KISN AND KMOT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND KDIK AND KBIS WILL LIFT QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO VFR. MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 20Z BEFORE LIFTING TO
LOW VFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD BE A PREIOD OF PATCHY FOG BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOG AT ANY SINGLE TAF SITE YET. LATER
SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. DIMINISHING NORTH FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BLOB FEATURING LEADING
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND A WELL DEVELOPED STRATIFORM AREA/MESOHIGH.
COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT AT AN ACCELERATED
RATE EASTWARD...WORKING WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT THE
LEADING EDGE. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF CELLS THREATEN SOME SMALL HAIL
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ALONG THE LEADING LINE...BUT MODE HAS BEEN
GENERALLY LOW CENTROID AND MINIMAL TIME SPENT WITH ANY ELEVATED
CORE. WILL SEE THE MCV WITH THIS CONVECTION TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD SW MN THROUGH MIDDAY. STRATIFORM
REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME HEADING TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
THIS UPPER CENTER SHOULD FOCUS AS LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDDAY AS IT EXITS THE AREA.

OVERALL...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGED BY FACT THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
REPLICATE REALITY. HOWEVER...SEEMS THAT RUC HAS MOST ACCURATE
PICTURE OF THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WELL
AS BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND BY LATE DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
IS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PACE
SOUTHEAST...SLOWING UP A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LOCATION NEAR A
KMJQ TO KLCG LINE. OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD...BUT
TREND OF 06Z NAM WAS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD.  MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS TO WHERE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
FATHOM THE EXTREME INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ THAT SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND RATHER SEE THAT SLIGHT RIDGING
BEHIND MORNING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
LIMIT CONVECTION IN A ENVIRONMENT OF LESSER INSTABILITY. WILL KICK
UP THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH OF A VERMILLION TO WINDOM LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY EASE SOUTHWARD IN THE EVENING.
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL/WIND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK TO EXPECT THIS
TO BE THE CASE...WITH THE INSTABILITY VALUES ALREADY A BIT IN
QUESTION.

CONFIDENCE IN LESSER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL IS A BIT STRONGER FOR
TONIGHT...AS DOMINANCE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN I-80 AND I-70 TO
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL MEAN THAT CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. MORE STABLE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MEAN MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ON THE MODERATE SIDE AS THE AREA IS A BIT DEEP INTO THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALSO PRETTY WEAK AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS MARGINAL
AT BEST. DOES AT LEAST LOOK WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THIS WAVE EXITING AND MORE ENERGY BUILDING UP FROM
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. NEITHER NEED VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS A WAVE INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO REAL
COOL AIR COMING DOWN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...MAINLY JUST
ENHANCED MIXING...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EACH DAY...LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT SOME SELF DISTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE ON THE BACK EDGE OF
COMPLEX- LEADING TO A SCATTERED-BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES IN THE 2-3K FOOT LEVEL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DEVELOP PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WITH SHORT DAYS AND OPPORTUNITY TO MIX OUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...WAS NOT READY TO ADD MENTION IN THE
TAFS. EASTERLY FLOW AND STRATUS BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 03/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will predominate across area terminals through
04/12Z. Isolated thunderstorms should develop over the Davis
Mountains this afternoon; however, the chances of thunderstorms
impacting KFST and KPEQ are low enough to preclude mention in this
forecast. We should see a brief period of IFR to LIFR cigs at KMAF
beginning around 04/12Z. Southerly winds AOA 12 kts will continue
at all terminals except KCNM through the overnight hours.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

TCU are developing over and east of the Davis Mountains, in line
with the past several HRRR runs, the NSSL WRF run, and other
parameterized models. No radar returns yet. Isolated convection
moving east off the mountains may ingest MLCAPEs of around 2500
to 3000 J/kg; however, forecast soundings also point to LFCs
around 10kft to 12kft. Low level convergence along the surface
trough/dryline is expected to be weak, so do not expect this to be
a big focus for deep convection. Deep layer shear is quite modest
as well, thus updrafts (if they can punch through warm 700 hPa
temperatures of 12-14C) will have a hard time maintaining temporal
integrity. As a result, further convective development over
northern Brewster and western Pecos counties later this afternoon
will be driven by potentially cold pools from earlier convection.
It is interesting to note that KMAF`s dewpoint is holding in the
mid 60s at present, higher than any of the model forecasts.
Secondly, there`s been net positive equivalent potential
temperature rises over most of the Permian Basin in the last three
hours. Should dewpoints should mix down into the upper 50s this
afternoon, sufficient CIN will suppress convection across the
Permian Basin. However, the last several HRRR model runs point to
convective initiation near or south of KMAF around 23Z. Hmm. In
any event, convective threats this afternoon and early this
evening will be restricted to gusty winds (owing to the depth of
the sub-cloud layer) and lightning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TOPPING THIS RIDGING WERE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH THE LATTER ONE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE AND ITS CONVECTION HAS
HELPED BLOCK MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DESPITE A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MN.
THUS...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN DESPITE LOOKING QUITE STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR IS NOT PRODUCING AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT COULD.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER MN AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE ACTING ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXISTS. A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO LIMITING SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD HELP LIFT THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN MN NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...RESULTING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING INTO THIN UNCAPPED INSTABILITY / UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. ITS LOOKING
MORE LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WILL END UP DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FORCING IS FOCUSING ON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP JUST NORTH OF I-
70. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MARCHES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...BUT ITS EASILY JUST AS PLAUSIBLE THE OUTFLOWS KEEP THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 03.12Z ECMWF.
NOW...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...LEFT-OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO DEVELOP ANYTHING.

IN SUMMARY...OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENING...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEY MAY EVEN NEED FURTHER LOWERING FOR THURSDAY.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD GET STUCK WITH SOME
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG
JUNE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY RESTRICTED TOO BY BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS...THAT MIXING PLUS 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WANT TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL
AS A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE IN.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CROSSING
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO MAY TEND TO WANT TO HOLD
THE CONVECTING NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE
03.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAYBE NOT ALL THE WAY DRY BUT DEFINITELY ON THE DRYING
TREND WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE END UP
MAINLY DRY AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF SHOWS. HAVE CONSIDERED THE 03.12Z
CANADIAN AN OUTLIER AS IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH FIRING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN THEN FOR FRIDAY...RAISED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS WELL AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS RELATIVELY COOL AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES.

LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE FIRMING UP
AMONGST MOST MODELS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. A CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST RIGHT NOW
THAT 06-18Z SUNDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. THE
STRONGEST THERMODYNAMICAL ENHANCED CONVECTION BY LOW LEVEL JET...AND
THUS POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...LOOKS TO BE ALONG I-80.

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXTENDS OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING DEEPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE 03.12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD ENDS UP DRY TOO.
TYPICALLY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE COOL...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS MAYBE 12-14C MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK UP TO 14-18C BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE IS SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. MIXED
SIGNAL AMONG ALL THE FCST MODELS HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS PRODUCED...
WHICH LOWERS FCST CONFIDENCE...AS THE FORCING/LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THIS...AND MORE SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED...LEFT CONVECTION
MENTION IN TAFS AS A PERIOD OF VCTS/CB FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VCSH
WITH CIGS MAINLY IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
BAND OF SCT CONVECTION AND BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...WITH SCT 2K-3K FT CLOUDS
DURING MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. PLENTY
OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IN NORTHERN MN/EASTERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW...
WITH THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO THE KRST/KLSE
AREAS NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWEST. DRYING/MIXING THEN LOOKS TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THU.

THAT SAID...LATEST MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS FAVOR PUSHING THE
CURRENT AREA OF SHRA/TS FROM SOUTHERN MN/IA EASTWARD. AS IT DOES
THOUGH...IT WILL START TO RUN OUT OF A FAVORABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. COULD IMPACT KRST FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT LIKELY STAY WEST OF
KLSE.

IN THE AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY AXIS RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
THIS...FIRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TS. SOME MESO MODELS SUGGEST THE
MAIN MASS WOULD STAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...AND COULD IMPACT
KRST/KLSE.

COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE LOWER ON WHEN THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL NOT ADD TO
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME HINTS THAT LOWER/MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES IN. THIS MATCHES WITH LATEST
FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. SOME MVFR VSBY TOO. UNCERTAIN THAT
IT WOULD REACH KRST BEFORE 12Z SO WILL NOT ADD...BUT THE POTENTIAL
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE WHILE GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.  OBS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS.  AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK ENE
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS
THE MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/WRF/NMM...AND ALSO THE GFS ALL
TRACK THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THESE MODELS TAKE THE AREA OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH ELEVATED CAPES WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 400
J/KG...PWATS WILL REACH UP TO 1.70 INCHES AND FORCING WILL BE DECENT
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CREATE SWATHS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF QPF...AND THIS
LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE.
AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRDS SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDELY
SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHER
THAN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN AN INCH.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE EAST.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
CLEAR OUT FIRST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  AS OTHER AREAS
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE RAIN WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TO THE LOWER
70S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THOUGH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO TRIM BACK NOTABLY ON POPS AS IT APPEARS NOW THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT IN THIS REGARD...WITH THE NAM NOT
THAT FAR OFF EXCEPT THAT IT HUNG ONTO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
PRECIPTATION WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GENERALLY IGNORED THE
NAM QPF THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CAN EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 70S.

NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST EARLY SUNDAY AS
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
MAXIMUM QPF...ONE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN-UPPER MICHIGAN
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER OVER
IOWA...NEAR ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANING THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS FAR OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR THE DETAILS TO
EMERGE MORE CLEARLY. CURRENT TIMIMG WOULD SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
THE DAY.

THEN AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTUBANCE...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TOWARD
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...BRINIGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN
ELUSIVE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE...MOSTLY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TAKE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH.  OTHER MESO MODELS
ARE COMING ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY IN
THE TAFS THOUGH DETAILS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT.  HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC