Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/02/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DRY MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE
REORIENTS THROUGH SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
LATEST HRRR AND EARLY NAM RETURNS SHOW A SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO PORTIONS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT 21 HOURS OR SO (AND HERMOSILLO TRENDS ARE UP ABOUT 10
DEGREES)...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE ACROSS SE AZ
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
A LOT IS HAPPENING TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE FIRST 2 NAMED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS OF THE SEASON. THE TROUGH MIGHT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LITTLE
OF THE MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING ANDRES LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A
STRENGTHENING BLANCA MAY BE EVEN MORE OF A PLAYER NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE TRACK PUTS HER IN A BETTER POSITION TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO SONORA
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A LOT DEPENDS ON SUBTLE POSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM.
BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE`S TOO MUCH GOING ON DOWN THERE TO
IGNORE. WE HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES UP A LITTLE MORE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10-15K FT AGL INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT OTHER TIMES.
THEREAFTER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THIS EXPECTED
INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE FORECAST OF
RAINFALL PROBABILITY...COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN COCHISE AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. AN AREA OF CIRRUS WAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WRN
AZ AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS BEGINNING TO SWING THRU
THE GREAT BASIN. 01/22Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOW 90S TO LOW 100S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A DRY
REGIME WAS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AS DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE LOW
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
SPOTS ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED WLY TO SWLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA-WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FEW
DEGREES OF DAYTIME COOLING EACH DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES TO
THE EAST AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY.
A DEEP TROF APPROACHING THE CA COASTLINE FROM THE WEST WILL THEN
BRING A CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THIS WEEKEND. THE 01/12Z
SOLUTIONS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS TROF PULLING
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE ANDRES NEWD TOWARD THE
SWRN CONUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH
REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...COULD OCCUR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THIS CWA BEGINNING FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN AND LOW TEMPS UP JUST
SLIGHTLY.
THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED FURTHER BY A SECOND INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...THIS TIME UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASSOCIATED WITH NOW
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK BLANCA TAKES...THIS
MOISTURE COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH REGARD TO THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
CARRIED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AT THIS
TIME...BRINGING BLANCA UP THE BAJA AS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHEREAS
THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE STORM SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT NEARS ARIZONA.
STILL TIME TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE PRETTY INTERESTING AS WE
CLOSE IN ON THE BEGINNING OF MONSOON 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...MEYER/FRENCH
AVIATION/FIRE WX...MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP THE AZ/NM
BORDER. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AND SOME MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MORNING
TWC/FGZ RAOBS MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEDIAN...THOUGH GPS-BASED IPW INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
PHOENIX AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AMIDST WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES IN SE AZ. EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT NON-ZERO SBCAPE REMAINS RELEGATED
TO FAR SE AZ. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ASSIMILATED THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUGGEST THE EXISTING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INROADS INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING RIDGE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. BUT AGAIN...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL E0NSEMBLES KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HIGHER MTNS OF EAST-CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...WELL EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. FOR LOWER DESERTS...CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME VERY MINOR CIRRUS. SOUTHWEST AND WEST
SURFACE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS OVER METRO PHOENIX...LINGERING THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS OVER SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA THIS
AFTERNOON TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT CHANGING TO WESTERLY
GUSTINESS OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS EVENING. SIMILAR WIND PATTERN
MONDAY EXCEPT MORE DISTINCT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER METRO PHOENIX.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
STATES...THE STRONGEST ONE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL COOLING AND CONTINUED
AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZINESS...FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 PERCENT
RANGE...EVEN HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE QUITE MODEST
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH MIDWEEK...BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IMPROVING DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 106 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
219 PM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP THE AZ/NM
BORDER. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AND SOME MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MORNING
TWC/FGZ RAOBS MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEDIAN...THOUGH GPS-BASED IPW INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
PHOENIX AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AMIDST WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES IN SE AZ. EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT NON-ZERO SBCAPE REMAINS RELEGATED
TO FAR SE AZ. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ASSIMILATED THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUGGEST THE EXISTING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INROADS INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING RIDGE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. BUT AGAIN...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 106 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON INTO
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY
TO AROUND 50 F NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY
UNCHANGED FROM TUCSON WWD VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT DEWPOINTS WERE
ABOUT 10-20 DEGS F HIGHER ACROSS ERN SECTIONS VERSUS THIS TIME SAT.
31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.62 INCH...AND
THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY VALUES WERE NEAR 0.75
INCH ADJACENT THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. 31/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
588 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR SE ARIZONA WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NWD INTO IDAHO. LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WILL BE NE OF TUCSON ACROSS
GRAHAM AND NRN GREENLEE COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE 31/14Z RUC HRRR. THE 31/12Z NAM REMAINED CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING FAIRLY DECENT LIQUID AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
GRAHAM COUNTY.
THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. AT ANY RATE...
BASED ON THE ABOVE DIAGNOSTICS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE INHERITED
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING APPEARS
QUITE REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT
1-4 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST OF A KFHU-KSAD
LINE BEGINNING 18Z-19Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35-40 KTS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR 01/07Z.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FEW
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL UNTIL LATE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY SWLY TO NWLY AT 8-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY
BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM
COUNTY...AND THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /231 AM MST/...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN
FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. THUS...WILL INCREASE POP VALUES FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP THE LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITONS ELSEWHERE. DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING
DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE MEDUIM RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOWED
A SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POP VALUES FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES IN PLACE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP EASTERN
AZ. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND SOME
MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. LATEST TWC/FGZ RAOBS
MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEDIAN. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CU ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...THOUGH THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE BIG STORY. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE
VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY TO TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HIRESW ARW AND NMM/ ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX. STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE
THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON
STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. THERE`S EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS DEWPOINTS
AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS INTO THE
10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
516 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE..TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS OF 0845Z BUT DON`T SEEM TO BE HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT`S CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF
PHOENIX WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S. WHILE WE`VE GOT SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO AND I`M
NOT EXPECTING TO SET ANY RECORDS...I COULD EASILY SEE COMING CLOSE
TO THE RECORD BUT DROPPING BELOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE RECORD WARM MIN
TEMP AT SKY HARBOR IS 84 DEGREES FOR REFERENCE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON...TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND
YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO
TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIRESW ARW AND NMM/
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX.
STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE
WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE`S EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS
DEWPOINTS AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
231 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED A LITTLE MORE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN FORECAST
PREVIOUSLY. THUS...WILL INCREASE POP VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP THE
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITONS
ELSEWHERE. DRY MUCH OF NEXT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE MEDUIM RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A SYSTEM ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POP VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU 31/18Z. AFT 31/18Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST
OF A KTUS TO KSOW LINE...WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF A KFHU-KSAD LINE BETWEEN 31/20Z AND 01/04Z.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/18Z...THEN WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-14 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS TIL 01/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 01/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY
BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM
COUNTY...AND THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS OF 0845Z BUT DON`T SEEM TO BE HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT`S CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF
PHOENIX WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S. WHILE WE`VE GOT SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO AND I`M
NOT EXPECTING TO SET ANY RECORDS...I COULD EASILY SEE COMING CLOSE
TO THE RECORD BUT DROPPING BELOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE RECORD WARM MIN
TEMP AT SKY HARBOR IS 84 DEGREES FOR REFERENCE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON...TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND
YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO
TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIRESW ARW AND NMM/
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX.
STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE
WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE`S EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS
DEWPOINTS AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD LITTLE
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TIMING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRFIELDS. CU
BUILDUP WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH ISOLD
TSRA WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
325 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE/LOW IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE (BRINGING
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING COPIOUS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SOME
HIGH-BASED AND MODEST CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. AS FAR AS WINDS, THEY ARE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AS THE THERMAL PACKING
INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BASIN
AND RANGE. WINDS ON LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE ARE SLOW TO PICK
UP, BUT THEY SHOULD DO SO SHORTLY AS GRADIENTS INCREASE AND
ENCOURAGE MIXING.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING, THE HRRR AND NAM STILL
SHOW MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF RENO. THIS MAKES SENSE AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTINUE TO WORK ON
COOLING AND DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY ANEMIC, SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 60-70 DEGREES SO ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (OR VIRGA) COULD EASILY DROP WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD DROP WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF THEY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY TO BE MEASURABLE GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION AND VERY DRY
LOWER LEVELS.
MONDAY, THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH MODERATE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS GOING AS THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
FOR PYRAMID LAKE ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH (AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE
NORTH) WITH NO UPPER FORCING OF NOTE AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY
ALOFT TRAPPED OVER OREGON.
TUESDAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT DECREASES AND THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK BRUSH-BY
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND CUTTING OFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PROVIDES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE DUE TO HURRICANE ANDRES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
PUSH UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM
ANDRES NEXT WEEKEND AND BRINGING IT UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WE
ARE NOT FOLLOWING THIS FORECAST FOR NOW AND KEEPING WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE GFS MODEL IS NOTORIOUS FOR NOT FORECASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WELL. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
ALSO LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
SUIT. HOON
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/NV WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OVER 50KTS. CHANCES OF TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
EAST REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ071-072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...BEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WAS JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WITH A MORE ENHANCED REGION OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE
FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER. AMPLE UPSTREAM DEEP CONVECTION
WAS ONGOING WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER
NORTH. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
SHOWERS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS FGEN FIELDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. SO MINOR UPDATE THE HOURLY GRIDS AND POPS.
PREV DISC..
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH INTO PA/NJ.
SO...PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM AT BEST WITH
THE RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF COOL AIR OVER THE REGION. ONE LAST
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT
AND EASTWARD MOVING TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL TONIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH RAIN FOR
ANY FLOOD THREAT...OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY ISOLATED PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SO...WORDING
RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN STEADIER PERIODS OF
RAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLE LIFR/ EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO CALM WINDS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
A KPSF WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...AS THE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
AND PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED POP AND SKY COVER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST. SBCAPE VALUES IN THE MODELS RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS
WELL WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...NYC METRO...NE NJ...AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
THE NCAR WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER NE NJ AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND ALSO NYC PER SOME OF THE NCAR WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AS SAGGING FRONT OFFERS FOCUS FOR REPEATED TRAINING OF
STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER NJ.
NAM/SREF AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS...DEPICTING AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FARTHER INLAND FROM THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY UP INTO INTERIOR SW CT. LACK OF A STRONG LLJ TO PROVIDE
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE INFLUX ALSO MAKE PINPOINTING LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN. ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON THE
MOTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST RAIN MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
AND/OR JUST TO ITS NORTH.
LATEST FFG INDICATES AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED IN
AN HOUR FOR FLASH FLOODING OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...WHERE AMTS
OF ABOUT AN INCH WOULD STILL CAUSE URBAN FLOODING.
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS INTO NE NJ...
WITH A MARGINAL RISK A LITTLE FARTHER NE INTO NYC METRO...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AND SW CT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT...BUT HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO THESE AREAS.
ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OVER LONG ISLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY OR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOWER IN THE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE N/NE. INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MARITIME LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE E/NE SETTING UP BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NYC/NJ METRO..SOUTHERN CT...AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE BEST FORCING RESIDES. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
AN ISOLATED STORM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 80S IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE ADDITION OF SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE
REGION BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-90
KT JET. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER WHERE THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
RESIDE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLOWER EASTWARD TREND THEN CURRENT FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT. FOR NOW...HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE
MUCH WARMER AS CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE
70S FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
VFR WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM N TO S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. START TIME OF
TSRA 1-2 HRS EARLIER FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS AND LATE TODAY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RAIN AND BR THIS EVENING
A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND
FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS OVER 25 KT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS S OF THE ROCKAWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER WITH A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUING TODAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAY BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BRIEFLY TO
NEAR 5 FT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT HIGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. OCEAN SEAS
WERE RUNNING JUST UNDER 4 FT AND WILL KEEP AROUND 4 FT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THE WIND SHIFTS TO EASTERLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NYC
METRO...NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD POSE A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. PROBABILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR NW MA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS N CT INTO NW RI WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM. HRRR AND
HI-RES WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FILLING IN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE MOVING TO THE S
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS S ACROSS SNE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE GENERATING OVER 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...MAINLY FROM N CT TO THE MASS PIKE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST SHEAR IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF WE CAN GET OVER
1000 J/KG OF CAPE THERE MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST S
OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LINE UP TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS ARE NEAR 1.75" AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 1-2" RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WITH AXIS FROM I-84 TO THE MASS PIKE AND THIS RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD WITH CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MASS PIKE REGION 16-18Z AND THE S COAST
20-22Z. TEMPS FALL SHARPLY INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MAX TEMPS MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES S OF THE MASS PIKE BEFORE THE
FROPA. ALSO...A PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS LIKELY ACROSS
NE MA AFT 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE A LOT COOLER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN FELT IN SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT AS SURFACE FORCING
MECHANISM IS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT COULD SEE STRATUS/DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
TOMORROW...
MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING
HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE....IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SURFACE AND
850MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW.
EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO BE SCT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE. BUT AS THE SYSTEM AND BETTER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EXPECT COVERAGE TO INTENSIFY...ESP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
LLJ...BELIEVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY THAT
THUNDER WILL DEVELOP AS THE MARITIME AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION STABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CHANGEABLE PATTERN MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN USA LATE THIS WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOW POTENTIAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER MONDAY-TUESDAY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THAT
WOULD FOCUS RAIN/SHOWERS AND BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS. BUT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND THE
GENERAL FLOW OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO GENERATE OUR GRID DATA.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING A COOL MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA.
THIS WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER EACH
DAY. THE PREVAILING FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTHERLY. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
ALSO WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH MAY GENERATE A
COASTAL LOW LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING RAIN UP THE COAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE MASS PIKE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE NE MA IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT...
16-18Z NEAR THE MASS PIKE REACHING SOUTH COAST 20-22Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS ESP
ALONG MASS EAST COASTLINE.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITHIN ANY SCT -SHRA MONDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL PICK UP AND COULD DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF THE PIKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS ALONG
THE MA EAST COAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS FARTHER INLAND. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...
WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE ACROSS E MA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER NE MA
WATERS...A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS...SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.
OTHERWISE ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST
TO NEAR 15 KTS. SCA FOR BUILD SEAS FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
TOMORROW...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. A SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ROUGH SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS AND FOG DID MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING THIS STRATUS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE REGION AND WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TRIED
TO UPDATE TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR LOOKED REASONABLE...SO USED THAT AS THE BASIS FOR THESE
CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN
LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z. APPEARS THAT
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY AGREED ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IS BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW
ALOFT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO A
SLOW STORM MOTION. STILL APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE MASS
PIKE AND ACROSS 1-84 IN CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY. SBCAPES ARE FORECASTED TO
BE AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FROPA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TIME WHERE PERHAPS THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LINE UP TO PRODUCE A STRONG STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
CT/RI TO THE MASS PIKE REGION AS SOUTH COAST WILL REMAIN STABLE DUE
TO THE MARITIME FLOW.
LASTLY...APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESP
NORTH OF THE PIKE AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
DESCENT CAA. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 14C DOWN TO 8C
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PIKE MAY SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
DIE DOWN DURING FROPA...HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH...ESP ALONG THE NORTHEAST MASS COASTLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE A LOT COOLER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN FELT IN SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT AS SURFACE FORCING
MECHANISM IS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT COULD SEE STRATUS/DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
TOMORROW...
MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING
HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE....IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SURFACE AND
850MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW.
EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO BE SCT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE. BUT AS THE SYSTEM AND BETTER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EXPECT COVERAGE TO INTENSIFY...ESP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
LLJ...BELIEVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY THAT
THUNDER WILL DEVELOP AS THE MARITIME AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION STABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CHANGEABLE PATTERN MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN USA LATE THIS WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOW POTENTIAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER MONDAY-TUESDAY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THAT
WOULD FOCUS RAIN/SHOWERS AND BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS. BUT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND THE
GENERAL FLOW OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO GENERATE OUR GRID DATA.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING A COOL MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA.
THIS WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER EACH
DAY. THE PREVAILING FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTHERLY. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
ALSO WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH MAY GENERATE A
COASTAL LOW LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING RAIN UP THE COAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE MASS PIKE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE NE MA IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT...
15-18Z ALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE REACHING SOUTH COAST 21-00Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS ESP
ALONG MASS EAST COASTLINE.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITHIN ANY SCT -SHRA MONDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL PICK UP AND COULD DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF THE PIKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS ALONG
THE MA EAST COAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS FARTHER INLAND. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...
WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE ACROSS E MA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER NE MA
WATERS...A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS...SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.
OTHERWISE ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST
TO NEAR 15 KTS. SCA FOR BUILD SEAS FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
TOMORROW...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. A SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ROUGH SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
748 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
LEAD TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH SINCE THE AFTERNOON
AND IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH MORE STABLE PRECIP
BACK UP ACROSS ERN PA AND THE REST OF NJ. MUCH OF THE STEADY
PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT PRECIP TRENDS.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WINDS ADJUSTED ALONG THE LINES OF HRRR MODEL.
OCNL FLOOD/SVR WARNINGS BEING ISSUED THIS EVENING SO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A STIFF ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES HAVE A CORRECT HANDLE OF THE
TRENDS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME QPF UNDER
1/2 INCH. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER TRENDS IN THE MET/MAV THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES WILL GO A TOUCH LOWER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN THOSE GUIDANCE SETS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A
RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK, AS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BASICALLY WASH OUT ONCE THE ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ONCE IN A WHILE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS WILL MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS FOR A TIME. THE TREND FOR MOSTLY IFR (CIGS) WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THE GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE HOPE THAT THINGS
WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WE WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT
FOR NOW AND TAPER OFF THE STEADY PRECIP FIRST ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST THEN GRADUALLY FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS
POSSIBLE KILG-KMIV-KACY...MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES THRU 02Z AT KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT AT ACY AND OTHER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH MANY OF THE WIND OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING GUSTS TO/OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. A BATCH OF TSTMS APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS FURTHER WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
FOR MAINE STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SMW`S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT WITHOUT UNFAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES, CAPPED WIND GUSTS TO UNDER 25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT IN OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD SCA HEADLINE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
REACHING CRITERIA IN THIS MARGINAL SETUP.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLD.
SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
925 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW DRIVEN
SE CENTRAL GA AND PORTIONS OF NW GA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE
NORTHERN PORTION WAS DELAYED IN DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND SO HAS NOT BEEN AS WORKED OVER. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING SOME 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE STILL LINGERING AND HRRR
HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT PUSHING EASTWARD NEAR THE METRO
AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THINKING IT
WILL NOT QUITE HOLD TOGETHER WITH LOSING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
FRONT NOT STRONG ENOUGH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS ATLANTA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN TWEAKING POP
TRENDS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO PRECIP/INSOLATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
ALREADY. AS SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3 MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE AS WELL.
BIGGEST THREATS REMAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL TO AROUND
SEVERE LIMITS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1.3-1.6
RANGE...ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT NOT EXTREME...WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL ARE ALSO SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW/TROUGH
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DISPLACE
THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MARKED DIURNAL BIAS.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THEREFORE... STILL EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /39
PREVIOUS LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
TERM SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS FILL THE UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE BUT
KEEPS THE H5 TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL GET A SLIGHT PUSH EASTWARD AS A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA EACH DAY IN THE
LONG TERM. NO BIG CHANGE OF AIR MASS AND THEREFORE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE IN DAY TO DAY CHANGES OF MAX TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 09Z AND EVENTUAL LIFTING/SCATTERING BY 14-16Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE MORNING AS WELL BUT LESS CONFIDENT. PRECIP
CHANCES GENERALLY ON DECREASE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING THEN CHANCES
RAMP UP AGAIN BY NEAR 18Z TUESDAY WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS SEEN
FROM TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY SW AT 4-7 KTS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SW TUESDAY FOR MOST SITES SWINGING NW FOR
KATL BY END OF FCST PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW ON MORNING VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON INITIAL PRECIP CHANCES AND EARLY MORNING CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 81 64 83 / 50 60 50 50
ATLANTA 64 82 65 82 / 40 50 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 75 60 76 / 90 60 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 63 82 63 82 / 70 50 40 50
COLUMBUS 66 86 67 86 / 40 50 40 50
GAINESVILLE 65 81 64 80 / 50 60 50 50
MACON 66 83 66 86 / 40 60 50 50
ROME 63 82 62 82 / 70 50 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 62 83 63 83 / 40 50 40 50
VIDALIA 66 85 68 85 / 70 70 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL THROUGH
MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MEANDERING NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A 300 HPA SHEAR AXIS.
THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM HILTON
HEAD SOUTH TO OSSABAW ISLAND ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE LITTLE; ONLY MEANDERING WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE MATURES, LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GROWS.
THE ULTIMATE DEGREE OF SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING A
NUMBER OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH MOST ACTUALLY SHOWING A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN TO STICK
WITH A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE 20-40 POP REGIME TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
GRIDDED POPS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE BEAUFORT-
SAVANNAH-RICHMOND HILL CORRIDOR.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AN INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS IN TACT PER 12Z RAOBS AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO A FEW
STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH PINNING DOWN
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT. SHOULD SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE BEACHES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA /CSRA/...DUE TO THE
PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT LEAST INITIALLY...COULD
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOWS COULD FALL TO THE
LOWER 60S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE AWAY FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. MEANWHILE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND LINGER
INLAND. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL
HELP PUSH RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. TEMPS MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/31 GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND WELL
OFFSHORE. ASSUMING THIS PATTERN HOLDS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY TYPICAL WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 70 AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE KSAV TERMINAL FROM 15-18Z AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL APPEARS VERY
SMALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. SMALL CHANCE FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MOSTLY DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THU.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING.
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN SEAS COULD BUILD
INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...LINGERING SWELL ENERGY AND
PROXIMITY TO FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA/PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/STRONGER INSTABILITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATED HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS 08Z-14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL A COUPLE OF OTHER
MODELS INDICATED IFR ACROSS THE CSRA AFFECTING AGS/DNL 09Z-14Z.
HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD PERSISTENCE WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AROUND 15Z AS
MIXING COMMENCES WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
A SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS GIVEN SCATTERED COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
159 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH OREGON TODAY. MIX OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE DIVIDE. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT MAINLY MAGIC VALLEY SPREADING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL MTNS AS SFC LOW ADVECTS NORTH INTO EAST IDAHO.
HRRR/RAP FURTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW THAN GFS/NAM. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF LOW SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER AND HAVE NUDGED
FORECAST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS REGION. SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH
EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AXIS. FOCUS SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL MTNS AND THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DIVIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING. SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE PUSHED POPS HIGHER IN THIS REGION WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM/GFS. COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY BUT STILL UNSETTLED. BOTH NAM/GFS SWING BROAD AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL MTNS INTO DIVIDE REGION TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE FAVORS GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SNAKE PLAIN WITH NAM MUCH STRONGER THAN GFS IN RESULTING WINDS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
BETTER CONSENSUS FROM MODELS. DMH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS COMING IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS BEGIN TAPPING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANDRES AND ADVANCING IT INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY. KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WENT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.
HINSBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ADVANCING INTO IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS/THUNDER
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY. BEST
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ALONG DIVIDE PER NAM
WITH BEST SHEAR NORTH OF LINE FROM HAILEY TO SUN VALLEY. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAP THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONLY MODIFICATION TO
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO MATCH THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC AREAS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN WEATHER GRIDS. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGES AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
IDAHO FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DAILY OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SNAKE PLAN WELL INTO THE 80S.
WILL START TO COOL DOWN TUESDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT
SOME STORMS WHERE THEY DEVELOP TODAY TO BE NEAR SEVERE.
GK
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG PACIFIC COAST INTO
CALIFORNIA THEN INLAND KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE PUSHING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE THIS
SOLUTION. KEPT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
GK
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW COAST TODAY
WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPORARY TSTM IMPACTS
SNEAKING INTO THE VALLEY AT KBYI AND KPIH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING NORTH TO KSUN AND KIDA OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO
THE OREGON COAST. HUSTON
FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW COAST
TODAY BEFORE EJECTING INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON MONDAY.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH MONDAY WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE
IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHEARS
EAST INTO MONTANA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SECOND STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NW STATES
AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO END TO
THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER IN SIGHT. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1101 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS ABLE TO FEED SOME DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXPECTED
TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. WITH A LOT LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. MAKING ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHOULD HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY 845 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND. 19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL PATCHES OF LOW
VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN IL WHICH WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
WEST. LATEST SHORT TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THIS BAND OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP AT CMI...BMI AND PIA AND KEEP THE BKN CIGS JUST
NORTH OF SPI AND DEC. TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE DECREASED
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT GROUND
FOG IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 3500 FEET. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LIGHT WIND
REGIME WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN EASTERLY
WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS...AND EAST WINDS AT 8 TO 13 KTS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
828 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS ABLE TO FEED SOME DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXPECTED
TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. WITH A LOT LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. MAKING ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHOULD HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY 845 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND. 19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A
STALLED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT THE MVFR
CIGS AROUND AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE BREAKS DEVELOPING
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE LATEST
SOUNDING AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
EASTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE CLOUD COVER TO OUR EAST BACK OVER
OUR AREA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MAY HAVE TO GO
WITH A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS PIA...BMI AND CMI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AS THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. IT MAY
TAKE A WHILE FOR DEC AND SPI TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVE
BASED OFF THE LATEST VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SO WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 03Z WITH SOME LOW VFR CIGS. WE SHOULD
SEE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS
NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
616 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND. 19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A
STALLED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT THE MVFR
CIGS AROUND AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE BREAKS DEVELOPING
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE LATEST
SOUNDING AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
EASTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE CLOUD COVER TO OUR EAST BACK OVER
OUR AREA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MAY HAVE TO GO
WITH A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS PIA...BMI AND CMI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AS THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. IT MAY
TAKE A WHILE FOR DEC AND SPI TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVE
BASED OFF THE LATEST VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SO WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 03Z WITH SOME LOW VFR CIGS. WE SHOULD
SEE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS
NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DESPITE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAST NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BLANKET CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE SLIM.
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH SOME DRYING/MIXING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 15Z/10AM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG A
KRFD TO KOTM LINE...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS ARE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SO CLEARING LINE IS NOT MAKING ANY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE KILX CWA AT THIS TIME. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TODAY. AM
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA
AROUND GALESBURG. FURTHER EAST...HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHERE CURRENT OBS SHOW CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND
REDUCED VISBYS. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S DUE TO SOME LATE DAY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST
OBS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCMI WHERE IFR
LINGERS. NAM/RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 2500FT THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10KT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DESPITE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAST NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BLANKET CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE SLIM.
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH SOME DRYING/MIXING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 15Z/10AM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG A
KRFD TO KOTM LINE...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS ARE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SO CLEARING LINE IS NOT MAKING ANY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE KILX CWA AT THIS TIME. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TODAY. AM
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA
AROUND GALESBURG. FURTHER EAST...HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHERE CURRENT OBS SHOW CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND
REDUCED VISBYS. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S DUE TO SOME LATE DAY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS. PIA
AND SPI SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CLOUD
HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH PIA POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMBING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 20Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ILLINOIS WEAKENS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS. PIA
AND SPI SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CLOUD
HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH PIA POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMBING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 20Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ILLINOIS WEAKENS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BREAK IN THE IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO SOME LOW VFR CIGS PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARDS PIA. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IF THIS DOES
GET INTO PIA...IT WON`T LAST VERY LONG AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WRAPPING ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THRU
MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF
BREAK TO LOW VFR CIGS AT PIA BUT WON`T EXPAND THAT FURTHER ACROSS
THE TAF FORECAST AREA...KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY NEW DATA
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...IF THEN...OVER IN PIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THRU THE NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS. LOOK FOR SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DIMINISHING WINDS
TOWARDS EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
358 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST
PERSISTENT BAND OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LOCATED IN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW MICHIGAN... WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED SOME SINCE FROPA AND RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING WILL NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS...
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS AROUND 11KFT RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. SO STILL APPEARS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND CONSIDERING HIGH AMOUNTS THAT FELL IN
THE AREA YDAY... WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LINGERING MOIST NE FLOW AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY TODAY WITH JUST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM
NW-SE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE M-U40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS OVERALL
TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES,
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INITIALLY BOTTLED
UP AND ALLOW FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HAVE GRUDGINGLY
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WITH SIGNALS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOR PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND HARD TO TIME
SUBTLE WAVES THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST TO WRN PA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT SBN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FWA IN MORE SHOWERY SECTOR OF THE STORM ATTM BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND AFFECTING SBN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NE
INDIANA THIS MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT THE TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTN AS LOW MOVES AWAY... HOWEVER IFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING
THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-024.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SPAWNING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF INDIANA AND OHIO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON DROPPED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WEST OF PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WATCH. RADAR MOSAIC AND
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN IL AND IN TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA WHILE FILLING IN EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH STRONG
THETA E ADVECTION WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WAS VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING QUICK BURSTS OF
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS IN 30-45 MINUTES.
WHILE LOSS OF HEATING MAY TEMPER ACTUAL TSRA...WARM CLOUD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT EXISTS OVERNIGHT WITH 30KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH WEST TO ENCOMPASS MOST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT NOW WELL
INLAND EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE NEAR THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO OPTED TO KEEP LAPORTE AND BERRIEN OUT OF WATCH AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS AND POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING
AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF APCHG POTENT SRN
STREAM SW EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE MO BOOTHILL A LG CONCERN GOING
FWD. NR TERM MARGINAL SVR THREAT TIED TO SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN YET TEMPERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR. THUS SUSPECT NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
WIND THREAT THROUGH SUNSET. HWVR RAPIDLY INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX/ASCENT SEEN INADV OF CLOSING/DEEPENING MID LVL CIRC PORTENTS A
A FURTHER WIDENING/CONSOLIDATION OF CONVN WITHIN DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF WHICH SHLD BE A VRY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.
OTRWS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE SOLUTION SPACE THAT OVER EMPHASIZED
THE MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS NW IN/SW MI AS COMPOSITING OUTFLW
ALG A KCMI-KDFI LINE SHLD IMPEDED BTR NWD MSTR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH LT
EVENING WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL QPF THERE.
UPR WAVE FLATTENS AND SHEARS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN AND XPC
PCPN WILL DIMINISH/END QUICKLY THROUGH MID MORNING. HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLD CVR AND DEEP NERLY FLW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WEAKENING DEFORMATION PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD EXIT
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING INVERSION SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLOW
EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY HELPING TO SLOW EARLY WEEK
WARMING TREND.
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE BLOCKING IN NATURE AS
SOUTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE MEAN
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN FOR LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
GFS IS A BIT MORE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH WEAK VORTS ROTATING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THIS SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK
SIGNALS/FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AS MENTIONED...MODERATING TREND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...BUT SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST TO WRN PA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT SBN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FWA IN MORE SHOWERY SECTOR OF THE STORM ATTM BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND AFFECTING SBN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NE
INDIANA THIS MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT THE TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTN AS LOW MOVES AWAY... HOWEVER IFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING
THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-024.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.
WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.
GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST...AND BY MONDAY MORNING SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF KMCK TERMINAL
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED NOT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION IN TAF AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LLJ. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO ADD
VCTS GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING FROM THE WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR FOUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST...AND BY MONDAY MORNING SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF KMCK TERMINAL
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED NOT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION IN TAF AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LLJ. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO ADD
VCTS GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING FROM THE WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY. WIND
SPEED WILL PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. MEANWHILE
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO BE NEAR KGLD INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF KMCK. SINCE
THIS SO FAR OUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KGLD TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING FOG FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG HAS
BEEN PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST DATA. THEREFORE AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CLOUD FREE SKY OTHER THAN SOME VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS IS PROBABLE AS SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, A COOLER OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTS UPPER 40S TO ABOUT 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND RAP13 ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AFTER 9
UTC, HOWEVER THE RAP 13 DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER WEST THAN CENTRAL
KANSAS VERY PATCHY COVERAGE, WHILE THE NAM , WHICH IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE, EXTENDS AREAS OF FOG MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL
GFS MOS, BUT MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING, SURFACE WINDS
WILL AGAIN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83-COLORADO BORDER CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL PERHAPS TOO RAPIDLY
SURGES DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE SUNDAY AND MID 60 BEYOND
THAT. NAM IS THE ONLY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD BRING SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM SE COLORADO INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AS OF THIS TIME NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ARW/NMM ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME/AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PROCESS TO HANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY INITIATE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AOA 250
THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TODAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GRADUALLY WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNSET AND TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS NEAR 050 AND VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BLO
3NM CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR HYS TO EAST OF DDC
AND TO DISSIPATE IN CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MINOR FLOODING ALONG CROOKED CREEK IN MEADE COUNTY CONTINUED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STREAM HAS CROSSED BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE
RECENTLY AND THE WARNING IS CANCELED. UPSTREAM WATER ACROSS
CREEKS IN NORTHERN FORD AND SOUTHERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES COULD ADD
TO THE FLOW ON THE PAWNEE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO TWO AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REACTIONS DOWNSTREAM ON THE PAWNEE TOWARDS
LARNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 83 65 85 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 59 84 64 87 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 60 90 62 89 / 10 10 20 10
LBL 60 87 62 88 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 56 82 62 85 / 30 30 20 10
P28 58 81 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUTHI
HYDROLOGY...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID TERM
AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS STARTED OUT WELL AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SO ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN GOING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
MORE OF THE FORCING GOES NORTH AND THE LEAST ELEVATED CINH IS ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THAT FORCING AND WEAKNESS IN THE
INHIBITION SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS BUT AM ALSO ANTICIPATING FOG.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES. CONSIDERING THE MORNING STRATUS AND WINDS COMING
MORE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...AM SIDING TOWARD COOLER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. AS ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH
COMES UP AGAIN AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT THAT WARMUP AGAIN WILL BE TEMPERED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUT/CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DOES
SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
IN GENERAL LEE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME STRONGER THAN
OTHERS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AND WET ONCE AGAIN. KNOW IT IS FAR OUT...BUT THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST .05 ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS IT.
SO A WET AND NOT VERY HOT PATTERN LOOK IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY. WIND
SPEED WILL PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. MEANWHILE
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO BE NEAR KGLD INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF KMCK. SINCE
THIS SO FAR OUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KGLD TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING FOG FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG HAS
BEEN PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST DATA. THEREFORE AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1047 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
PRECIP IS ALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES...BUT THE
POP FOR TONIGHT WAS ABLE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DEW POINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH
ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA HAS
STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING STORMS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. FOLLOWING
THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY
YIELDS 400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER
600J/KG USING 78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T
REALLY GET PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL
TREND. WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR...WITH
SOME LOW END MVFR. THE POOR CONDITIONS WERE DUE LARGELY TO
CEILINGS. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING TO MID-DAY
AS CEILINGS RISE AND START TO BREAK UP...WITH A RETURN TO
GENERALLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
851 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DEW POINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH
ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA HAS
STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING STORMS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. FOLLOWING
THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY
YIELDS 400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER
600J/KG USING 78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T
REALLY GET PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL
TREND. WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR...WITH
SOME LOW END MVFR. THE POOR CONDITIONS WERE DUE LARGELY TO
CEILINGS. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING TO MID-DAY
AS CEILINGS RISE AND START TO BREAK UP...WITH A RETURN TO
GENERALLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW
CLOUDS WITH ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR EAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE STORM
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES. FOLLOWING THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW
AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG
WITH THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY YIELDS
400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER 600J/KG USING
78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T REALLY GET
PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND.
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
LOW CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST AIRPORTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED TIMES
OF HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS. AFTER 02Z TONIGHT...
CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP AGAIN WITH FOG AND LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER MOST
OF THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED IN AND DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY KICKING OFF STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD
GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED...TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
GENERALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ALSO
SOME EXPANSION WEST AND NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOWS FROM
THE CURRENT STORMS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MORE SPARSE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A TEMPO WITH THE
STORMS AT THE LOZ SITE THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL THE SITES...THOUGH SJS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL OF A DIRECT HIT
FROM STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...AND LATER STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY.
HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VIS INTO THE MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR RANGE
FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME BR. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED
AND UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN GUSTS. THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED IN AND DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY KICKING OFF STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD
GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED...TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS IT NEARS EASTERN
KY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KSME AND KLOZ FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 18Z...MAKING IT TO KSJS CLOSER
TO 0Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
THE RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE GENERALLY
FROM THE SW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DESPITE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF TAF SITES ARE IMPACTED
BY ANY OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VIS COULD BE
TEMPORARILY LOWERED. SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS EVENING...KEEPING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL...MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT ONCE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z...BUT ULTIMATELY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT IMPACTS AND SEVERITY THE FOG WILL
HAVE AT EACH SITE.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
ISOLATED CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCE/S TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS IT NEARS EASTERN
KY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KSME AND KLOZ FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 18Z...MAKING IT TO KSJS CLOSER
TO 0Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
THE RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE GENERALLY
FROM THE SW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DESPITE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF TAF SITES ARE IMPACTED
BY ANY OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VIS COULD BE
TEMPORARILY LOWERED. SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS EVENING...KEEPING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL...MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT ONCE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z...BUT ULTIMATELY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT IMPACTS AND SEVERITY THE FOG WILL
HAVE AT EACH SITE.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
ISOLATED CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCE/S TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO INCREASING POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER TN AND VA SHOULD
AT LEAST BRUSH PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLED VALLEYS THAT HAD DROPPED
OFF A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POVIDING JUST ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED
CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY DURING THE
DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO INCREASING POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER TN AND VA SHOULD
AT LEAST BRUSH PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLED VALLEYS THAT HAD DROPPED
OFF A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POVIDING JUST ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED
CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY DURING THE
DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
1137 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE: FORECAST IS MOSLTY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BANDS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST. TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AS RAIN COULD
FALL FROM MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION TO HOULTON AND FURTHER SOUTH.
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THAT
LINE...AS DRY 1000-850MB CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CROWN OF
MAINE.
0800 AM UPDATE: DID A QUICK UPDATE THROUGH 00Z TODAY TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AS SUB-TROPICAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. KEPT
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUMONT/MCW
MARINE...DUMONT/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0800 AM UPDATE: DID A QUICK UPDATE THROUGH 00Z TODAY TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AS SUB-TROPICAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. KEPT
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS.
530 AM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS FCST HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTN...BASED ON 5 AM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH AT SOME LCTNS ACROSS THE
N WERE COOLER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BY INCORPORATING A TREND OF THE LATEST 5 AM OBS
INTO AN UPDATED OBSVD LOW TEMP FROM LAST NGT...THEN POSTING THIS
LOW AT 6 AM...THEN INTERPOLATING TO 2 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...SKY...
POP AND 6HRLY FCST QPF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GOING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/DUMONT/MCW
MARINE...VJN/DUMONT/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
541 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS FCST HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTN...BASED ON 5 AM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH AT SOME LCTNS ACROSS THE
N WERE COOLER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BY INCORPORATING A TREND OF THE LATEST 5 AM OBS
INTO AN UPDATED OBSVD LOW TEMP FROM LAST NGT...THEN POSTING THIS
LOW AT 6 AM...THEN INTERPOLATING TO 2 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...SKY...
POP AND 6HRLY FCST QPF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GOING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
356 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
918 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO CURRENT FCST. USED LATEST MDNGT OBS
TO UPDATE FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 5-6AM WHICH WERE RAISED
A FEW DEG F BASED ON MDNGT OBS BEING WARMER THAN THE PRIOR FCST OF
TEMPS AT THIS HR.
ORGNL DISC: ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS
OF 50+ KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE
FIRST BATCH ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
ATTM. THE SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF
CONVECTION. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS
WELL TO ENHANCE THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR
TSTMS FOR NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS
STANDPOINT. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
W/PRECIP JUST IN THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW
PRES WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR
AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT
STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY
RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF
DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES
CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND BHB, VFR GOING TO
MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN
STEADY RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BAD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL SPREAD...WITH KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN
IMPACTED BY IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. THE WIND AND SEAS HAVE
FINALLY COME UP AND THE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. THE WIND WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY
W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP.
SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS
NEARING 15-18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXIT SE ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT TO
FILL AS IT SLIDES ACROSS N MN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE EDGING
A TROUGH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION
WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ITEM OF
NOTE IS THAT NE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20KT AT TIMES TODAY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EVEN HEADING
THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN
THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EVEN HEADING
THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN
THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FAIR AGREEMENT IN GENERAL LOOK OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND MOVES
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD DROP ACROSS NW ONTARIO ON
MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING A TOUCH. ONLY IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WOULD BE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
AFFECT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DID NOT RAISE TEMPS TOO MUCH FM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH SINCE PWATS ARE STILL LOW AROUND 0.30 INCH
AND WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WOULD FALL OFF INTO
THE UPR 20S OR LOWER 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD.
TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MONDAY. COOLEST READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALL DAY. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND WEST WHERE TEMPS REACH MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 60S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY MODELS SHOWING DISAGREEMENT HOW
QUICK A WEAKER SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS
RAIN BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE AND H85-H7 AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVEGENCE
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. LINGERING
WEAK SFC GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN AT
THAT POINT. OVERALL SOME ISOLD SHRA MAY MAKE IT INTO WEST UPR
MICHIGAN WED AFTN AS THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE /MORE SO ON THE GEM-NH/...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
TSRA. THOUGH INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON WED
NIGHT THERE ARE HINTS ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE LIFTING IN DUE TO
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA OR JUST BECAUSE REGION IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER WEST CONUS TROUGH. HARD TO TIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TYPICALLY
WILL SHOW UP IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. INCREASING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000-700MB MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SLIDING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/. H85-H7 FLOW IS
FM WSW SO THIS COULD PROPEL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA. PWATS UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES
AND WEAKER CORFIDI VECTORS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. GEM-NH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHER EAST SOLN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...PRETTY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS. DID
LOWER POPS INITIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON SLOWER TRENDS.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SFC LOW REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEST-EAST FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PROBABLY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING
ON THURSDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY IS OVER MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...H85/H7 WINDS FM SW COULD PULL MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LIKELY THE POPS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CANADIAN FRONT SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL WHILE DEEPER FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. SEEMS THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS
MAX POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT
WILL SHAKE OUT. GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ECMWF WAS
MUCH MORE BULLISH...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE IT RIDES OVER
THE EAST TO WEST FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF ONLY HAD
THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE SINCE 12Z RUN ON 29 MAY...AND LATEST RUN
NOW IS QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A WRAPPED UP SFC
LOW TRACKING WEST OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES OR THE ECMWF
GOES BACK TO A WEAKER LOW. TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. NO MATTER...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 DWPNTS
SURGE ABOVE +12C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN NEXT
SATURDAY. AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE...AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE AFFECTING ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY NEXT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT IT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CONSENSUS CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH STIFF NE WINDS FLOWING OVER THE CHILLY LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS /UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S AS OF THIS MORNING PER MTU AND
NOAA BUOY DATA/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN. LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME. WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST. STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.
APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS REGION INTO TONIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINMKLE POSSIBLE FAR
WEST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
VFR DURING PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NITE...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Low cloud field that has dominated our area the past 36 hours or
so is starting to clear out upstream from our region in eastern
IL. RAP cloud level flow at 1km AGL shows predominantly E-NE flow
slowly veering SE thru 18z/Tue with about a mean speed of
10-15mph. Redrew the cloud forecast along these lines, with
partial clearing occurring for much of STL Metro from late evening
on, the UIN area being on the edge of the clouds much of the
night, and COU/JEF areas likely remaining cloudy all night long,
along with much of southeast MO. Adjusted temps downward a bit
more where some clearing is now expected to occur.
Heading into Tuesday, this trend will likely continue and probably
be further complicated by a diurnal factor that will fill in a bit
during the day and recede towards sunset. It still remains to be
seen whether or not parts of southeast MO and central MO ever
clear out before Tuesday night.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Main issue in the short term is pesky stratus which has blanketed the
region the last few days and has been responsible for well below
average temperatures. The guidance is only showing minor changes
over the next 24 hours that would influence the evolution/erosion.
The upper trof axis has now pushed east of the CWA with the upper
low now in western TN and it will continue moving slowly east.
More important is the expansive and dominate surface/low level
ridge, and it will continue to have a significant influence with only
very slight veering of the lower tropospheric winds. Satellite today
shows a bit more cumuliform appearance to the cloud tops but it remains
quite thick outside of the diurnally driven stratocu on the periphery.
I have been pessimistic and held onto more clouds tonight and into
Tuesday than some of the low level RH fields might suggest. Accordingly
I lowered high temps on Tuesday a bit from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
With each successive model cycle there are new small changes with
the mass and moisture fields during the later part of the week
and into the weekend that suggest greater thunderstorm chances and
lesser heat magnitude. In general the upper ridge now centered in
the Rockies appears to never build into the MS Valley and instead
stays centered through the Plains. From Wednesday night into the
later part of the week a series of weak shortwaves are forecast to
top the ridge crest and traverse parts of the region in the NW
flow aloft. The models differ on timing and placement of these as
well as the moisture return and specifics of the WAA regime on the
backside of the retreating low level anticyclone, with the NAM the
most agressive and fastest. Then as we head into the weekend and
early next week, the northern stream will be more active with
greater digging of shortwaves out of south central Canada and
development of a deepening broad long wave trof over the eastern
U.S. centered in the Great Lakes region. Several fropas will occur
as a result with a wavy frontal boundary impacting the area
Friday-Saturday and another on Monday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Dry air advecting in from IL should lead to breaks in the low
level cloud ceiling at UIN and in the St Louis metro area as well
as the tendency for improvement to VFR conditions later this
evening and overnight. The COU site will likely remain MVFR
through the night. Improvement is expected on Tuesday as the low
level moisture becomes more shallow or thinner with the cloud
ceiling likely scattering out in UIN Tuesday morning, in COU
Tuesday afternoon, and scattering out in the St Louis metro area
by Tuesday evening. The surface wind will be light tonight, then
mainly e-sely on Tuesday as the surface ridge extending from the
Great Lakes region southwest into MO shifts slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: Cloud ceilings of around 3000-3500 feet can be
expected tonight, then rising to around 4000 feet Tuesday morning,
and eventually scattering out by Tuesday evening. A weak nely
surface wind tonight will veer around to an ely direction on Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
559 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Rain associated with an upper level disturbance and an inverted
surface trough should remain s-se of the taf sites. The persistent
stratus cloud deck will continue at the taf sites with the
current ceilings around 2000 feet lowering to around 1000 feet
later this evening or overnight. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise on Monday to around 2000-3000 feet Monday afternoon with some
breaks possible in UIN and COU by late afternoon. N-nely surface
winds will become nely later tonight with a surface ridge
extending from MN and WI south into northeast MO shifting only
slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower tonight to around
1000 feet, then rise to around 2000 feet Monday afternoon. There
may be some breaks in the cloud deck Monday evening. Nly surface
wind will veer around to a nely direction later tonight.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Expect MVFR ceilings throughout the rest of the afternoon with the
ceilings likely staying below 2000 feet at the St. Louis metro
airports. Ceilings may fall below 1000 feet after 04Z tonight at
the St. Louis metro airports and KCOU before lifting mid-late
Monday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings to now remain below 2000 feet
during the forecast period with ceilings falling to IFR late
tonight into late morning Monday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. STORMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE EAST OF
THE WATCH AREA AND ANY FURTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MOST
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SEVERE WIND GUST ALONG THE CONVECTIVE
LINE. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO FLASH
FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN AS WELL. NO REPORTS OF FLOODING IN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY SO WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
BLUE CREEK AREA EXPIRE. STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
WE ARE FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS WITH THIS DISCUSSION...THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF OUR SEVERE PARAMETERS SOMEWHAT
DISJOINTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IN
JUST HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE REST OF THE DAY IS LOW. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PER CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WITH
INCREASING BULK SHEAR TO GENERATE SOME STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANTICIPATED. WATCH 246 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE MAY NEED TO ADD BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
AT 2 PM WE HAD SOME CELLS FIRING QUICKLY OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS
AND BELTS...WITH ANOTHER REGION OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPING NEAR COOKE
CITY IN THE BEARTOOTHS. HRRR DID GREAT LAST NIGHT...BUT IS ALL
OVER THE MAP AND TERRIBLY INCONSISTENT WITH ITS RUNS TODAY. OTHER
MODELS DISAGREE ON SEVERAL FEATURES AND TIMING AS WELL. BUT TAKING
MATTERS FROM CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE I AM ANTICIPATING
STRONGEST CONVECTION BETWEEN 4-7 PM AND TO BE SITUATED FROM
ROUNDUP THROUGH BILLINGS TO NEAR THE BIG HORNS MOVING NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING
OUT EAST AS WELL.
ON THE OTHERSIDE OF THINGS...WEAKER CONVECTION FIRING NOW MAY
PRODUCE COLD POOLS LIMITING CHANCE OF SEVERE CELLS LATER. BUT
THIS HARD TO PREDICT AHEAD OF TIME...SO WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO A CUTOFF
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA. SEVERAL
IMPULSES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS GIVES MUCH OF
THE AREA AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HELPING THIS WILL BE A
GOOD INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. EACH AFTERNOON SOME INSTABILITY
EXISTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF LINES OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40KTS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AREAS OF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL EVALUATE FOG CHANCES WITH MIDNIGHT FORECAST.
CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/074 048/070 051/067 052/073 054/074 053/078 054/074
63/T 32/T 34/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
LVM 049/069 045/068 048/067 047/071 050/071 050/075 050/072
45/T 44/T 45/T 45/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 054/077 047/073 051/070 052/076 054/076 054/080 054/077
63/T 32/T 35/T 34/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 058/075 048/071 051/068 053/075 056/075 054/080 054/076
53/T 31/B 25/T 44/T 55/T 42/T 22/T
4BQ 057/078 049/072 052/068 053/074 056/074 054/078 054/076
52/T 32/T 45/T 34/T 55/T 42/T 33/T
BHK 055/076 046/070 046/067 049/072 052/074 051/077 050/076
53/T 31/B 25/T 33/T 55/T 42/T 22/T
SHR 050/075 045/069 048/068 049/072 051/072 050/075 052/073
43/T 32/T 54/T 44/T 55/T 43/T 44/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
754 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE... FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS ON A DEVELOPED AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND PROHIBITING STRONG CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A
THETA-E RIDGE HAS DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF
THIS FRONT AND IS RUNNING UP THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. THIS WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR REMAINING STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE CWA. WINDS AND DEWPOINT FIELDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS
CHANGE IN FORECAST. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD STILL RECEIVE SOME
FOR OF RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
POTENT SYSTEM KICKS OFF FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT STARTING TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS PUSHING INTO IDAHO AND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT STORMS FIRING UP.
MOISTURE EVIDENT WITH THETA-E ANALYSIS SHOWING A BULLSEYE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS...WHERE STORMS ARE FIRING NOW IN VICINITY OF 4000 CAPE...AND
THE AXIS PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE MT AND ND BORDER. PARAMETERS AND
TIMING ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
BEING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED VERBAIGE FROM THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
ONE MINUTE GOES-14 IMAGERY (THANK YOU CIRA-RAMMB) HAS BEEN GREAT
TO USE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR REALLY SHOWING WHERE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE THINGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. HRRR IS INDICATING CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN MILES CITY
AND GLENDIVE BY 21Z AND WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CELLS TRYING TO FORM...THEY JUST AREN`T CUTTING IT YET. THE SSEO
PAGE FROM SPC SHOWED THIS EARLIER TODAY GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT
THINGS WILL FIRE UP OVER FERGUS COUNTY AREA AND MOVE INTO
PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER 5-6 PM.
A SPECIAL UPPER AIR RUN WAS RELEASED AT 19Z AND DATA SHOULD BE IN
SHORTLY. DATA THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS THAT PWATS HAVE DECREASED BY .2
OF AN INCH SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BIT OF A DRY SOUNDING BELOW
400 MB. THE SPEED SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST STORMS TO BE
MULTICELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR LINE IN OUR CWA WITH A GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF LARGER HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT TRANSITIONS INTO A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KGGW WESTWARD. SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH
OF RAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT`S PUSH INTO CANADA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK WAVES INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE INTRODUCING A WARMING TREND AND
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IT WILL HELP TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
NORTHWESTERLY...INTRODUCING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL TWEAKS THAT WERE MADE WERE
SIMPLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE SW FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SW FOR
THURSDAY...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THAT COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE... SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY
DRY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
THIS EVENING KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR WITH MVFR AFT 12Z MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WX: THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST UP THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY INTO KGDV AND KSDY AFT
06Z. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE STARTING AT 03Z IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING INTO KGGW AND KOLF AFT 06Z.
CIGS/VSBY: VFR AND LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AFT 12Z. OTHERWISE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE... FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS ON A DEVELOPED AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND PROHIBITING STRONG CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A
THETA-E RIDGE HAS DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF
THIS FRONT AND IS RUNNING UP THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. THIS WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR REMAINING STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE CWA. WINDS AND DEWPOINT FIELDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS
CHANGE IN FORECAST. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD STILL RECEIVE SOME
FOR OF RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
POTENT SYSTEM KICKS OFF FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT STARTING TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS PUSHING INTO IDAHO AND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT STORMS FIRING UP.
MOISTURE EVIDENT WITH THETA-E ANALYSIS SHOWING A BULLSEYE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS...WHERE STORMS ARE FIRING NOW IN VICINITY OF 4000
CAPE... AND THE AXIS PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE MT AND ND BORDER.
PARAMETERS AND TIMING ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE BEING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED
VERBAIGE FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
ONE MINUTE GOES-14 IMAGERY (THANK YOU CIRA-RAMMB) HAS BEEN GREAT
TO USE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR REALLY SHOWING WHERE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE THINGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. HRRR IS INDICATING CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN MILES CITY
AND GLENDIVE BY 21Z AND WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CELLS TRYING TO FORM...THEY JUST AREN`T CUTTING IT YET. THE SSEO
PAGE FROM SPC SHOWED THIS EARLIER TODAY GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT
THINGS WILL FIRE UP OVER FERGUS COUNTY AREA AND MOVE INTO
PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER 5-6 PM.
A SPECIAL UPPER AIR RUN WAS RELEASED AT 19Z AND DATA SHOULD BE IN
SHORTLY. DATA THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS THAT PWATS HAVE DECREASED BY .2
OF AN INCH SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BIT OF A DRY SOUNDING BELOW
400 MB. THE SPEED SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST STORMS TO BE
MULTICELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR LINE IN OUR CWA WITH A GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF LARGER HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT TRANSITIONS INTO A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KGGW WESTWARD. SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH
OF RAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT`S PUSH INTO CANADA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK WAVES INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE INTRODUCING A WARMING TREND AND
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IT WILL HELP TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
NORTHWESTERLY...INTRODUCING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL TWEAKS THAT WERE MADE WERE
SIMPLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE SW FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SW FOR
THURSDAY...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THAT COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE... SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY
DRY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. SATELLITE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA WITH THE MAIN JET MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF NOW...ONLY ONE LIGHTING STRIKE ACROSS THE
STATE AND THAT IS WEST OF MISSOULA. QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT
IS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT VISIBLY NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WITH IT AS THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING IT AT THIS TIME. ALSO
NOTED...SATELLITE SHOWING GRAVITY WAVES OVER BIG HORN COUNTY EAST
OF THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS WHICH IS ALSO A SIGN OF STABILITY
ALOFT. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WHEATLAND...GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES.
THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING. STILL BELIEVE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES LOOK LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHIFTED EAST MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CAPES AND BEST SHEAR WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOCATION OF STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS MODELS PLACE IT
JUST EAST OF BILLINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A HIGH PROBABILITY.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY A 90
DEGREE READING AT THE HOTTER LOCATIONS. READINGS TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED
WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE JUNE WITH A DAILY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST...A GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY DROPS INTO
CENTRAL/SRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HAVE MAINTAINED A GENERAL HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS AND OTHER PERIODS OF
ENHANCED STORM CHANCES TIMED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...TOO HARD TO TIME AND IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON ULTIMATE PATH OF UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W TO E THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO KSHR
WESTWARD TO KLVM LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH SHOWERS. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/086 056/075 050/073 052/071 051/072 053/071 051/073
44/T 63/T 33/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
LVM 051/083 051/071 046/068 046/069 047/068 049/068 047/068
47/T 65/T 44/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 43/T
HDN 056/089 056/080 051/075 052/074 051/075 053/074 050/075
33/T 63/T 22/T 44/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
MLS 058/090 060/078 053/075 054/073 053/076 055/074 051/073
13/T 63/T 32/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
4BQ 055/087 057/079 053/074 053/073 054/075 055/073 051/073
22/T 43/T 33/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
BHK 052/085 058/076 050/075 051/070 051/075 052/071 048/072
12/T 64/T 43/T 46/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
SHR 051/087 053/076 046/071 049/071 049/071 050/070 048/070
32/T 43/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
CUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASED THIS MORNING FOR A WHILE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THESE MOVE EAST.
HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
S-CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE
LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY -SHRA
AT THIS POINT DUE TO AMOUNT OF COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S-
CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING
THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT 08Z...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO ERN NEBR...KANSAS TO THE TX PNHDL.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE. A FEW
SHOWERS NW OF THE BLACK HILLS WEST ACROSS NRN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 54 AT PINE RIDGE TO 41 AT BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...THERE MAY BE SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND POSSIBLY AS FEW SPRINKLES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BELOW 700MB STILL FAIRLY DRY SO
NO MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. HIGH FROM NEAR 70 ONL TO 81 AT
IML. ALSO A BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND EAST OF AN IML THROUGH VTN
LINE AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN SRN
IDAHO WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WEST OF AIA THROUGH LBF WHERE HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 80 AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS AREA WHERE MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND 0-3KM CAPES OF
400-800 J/KG. COVERAGE COULD BECOME SCATTERED MOVING ACROSS SWRN
NEBR THIS EVENING WITH POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER MONDAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS.
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE RIDGING
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER NORTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF OF THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WILL CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AS THEY TRACK
EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC DEW PTS NEARING 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL HELP PULL DEEP
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU SE
MT/NERN WY WOULD REACH NRN NEB AROUND 14Z. THE HRRR MODEL WEAKENS
THE STORMS TO HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS. SO THAT IS IN THE
FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE LARAMIE RANGE 18Z-21Z
SUNDAY AND MOVE E-SE INTO SRN PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB 21Z-00Z. THE MODELS MAY
BE TOO FAST WITH THIS SO ACTIVITY COULD REACH WRN NEB 00Z-03Z AND
EXIT EAST AROUND 09Z-12Z. WE WILL SEE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED.
NO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE RAP SLOWED THIS DOWN AND
KEEPS THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THUS VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE...AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WHILE ROSCOE AND BRADY WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THE STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE IS
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT. LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AT TIMES THIS WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THIS RUNOFF COULD CAUSE
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST WARNING
INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S-
CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING
THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AN EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES PUSH WEST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR A BROKEN MVFR
DECK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT GOES LOWER
OR OVERCAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS THREE SHORTWAVES
NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THE FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS...A
SECOND OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND A THIRD OVER SRN COLORADO. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS. ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...SRLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...2 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 57 AT VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH...TO 62 AT
BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A SCT DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SCT DECK TO HELP PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE WARMEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOWER TO MID 50S TD/S BY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IS IN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM
DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY /MORNING/ WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY /AFTERNOON/ WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECOND IMPULSE. THE GFS GENERALLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS POINT
FAVORING AFTERNOON STORMS WHICH FIRST FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA /ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/...THEN THE STORMS SHOULD
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUNDINGS FROM WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND CAPE /GENERATED FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES/ FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF A STRONG STORM OR
TWO...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FLOW NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED SRLY
WINDS WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND HIGH 50S IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
WYOMING AND SERN MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS TOMORROW
EVENING COULD LEAD TO A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE STORM IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...RESULTING IN SB CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z
TUESDAY. LIKE SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM
EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE MON AFTERNOON...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN H850 JET ORIENTED FROM
WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KTS WILL FACILITATE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HRS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ATTM
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GREATER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST OVER SRN SD. ON
TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HEATING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
PUSH CAPES UP TO 4000J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WEAKER ALLEVIATING THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
WILL REACH 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING...SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FCST K INDEXES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ATTM...THIS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED.
.LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO SWRLY MIDWEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY WEEK LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK SO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU SE
MT/NERN WY WOULD REACH NRN NEB AROUND 14Z. THE HRRR MODEL WEAKENS
THE STORMS TO HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS. SO THAT IS IN THE
FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE LARAMIE RANGE 18Z-21Z
SUNDAY AND MOVE E-SE INTO SRN PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB 21Z-00Z. THE MODELS MAY
BE TOO FAST WITH THIS SO ACTIVITY COULD REACH WRN NEB 00Z-03Z AND
EXIT EAST AROUND 09Z-12Z. WE WILL SEE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED.
NO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE RAP SLOWED THIS DOWN AND
KEEPS THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THUS VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. NEAR STEADY RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD EFFECT RIVER LEVELS. PLEASE CHECK THE
LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1001 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH LINGERING PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. AFTER
A FOGGY START EARLY WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1001 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST HOLDING UP WELL THUS FAR WITH
THE ONLY CHANGES BEING TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. STILL SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES PER RECENT COMPOSITE
IMAGERY, CONSISTENT WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN AN OVERCAST
AND SATURATED AIRMASS. RECENT HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUE TO POINT TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, STEADIER RAINS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM PRESENT VALUES UNDER BLANKET OF OVERCAST SKIES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL OR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF. LOWS IN THE
M/U40S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS ERN NY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WILL SEE CLOSED 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LKS...ROTATE EWD AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTN. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR
OUT STRATUS LAYER...SO ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS (5-10
MPH) WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN...YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 55-60F. MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 60S IN
THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. FOR POPS...INDICATED CHANCE 40-50 PERCENT IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES...AND THE AMPLE
RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT
A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NERN VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FOG SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH OF A BRAKE ON FALLING TEMPS THAT FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY
IN THOSE OUTLYING AREAS ATTM.
SHOULD SEE FOG AND LINGERING STRATUS ERODE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...AS MIXING LOOKS A BIT TOO SHALLOW IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
(PERHAPS DUE TO WET GROUND). WITH 850MB TEMPS +7 TO +9C...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK BEST.
CONTINUED QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES <0.5IN AND 1000-500MB
RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT IN 12Z GFS. LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL FOG...BUT
SHOULDN/T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT LOCALLY NEAR 40F AT SARANAC LAKE AND FAR NERN
VERMONT. POPS NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY DRY, BUT
THEN SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSONS BAY AREA, BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A DRYING TREND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY PERIOD
TO LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION MAY
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
2 SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT
THIS POINT, SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON LOCALE
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY -RA/DZ CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCNL IFR TO OCCUR AT KSLK/KMPV
WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE AT KPBG/KMSS. KBTV/KRUT TO REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 3-7 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN CLOUDS BUT CIGS
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OVER TIME. COULD STILL
SEE SOME INTERMITTENT/PATCHY -RA/DZ BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR
DRYING AFTER 18Z AS WINDS TREND LIGHT NORTHERLY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS IN THE 02-13Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE
THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE EAST
BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER BRIEFLY REACHED JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7.0 FEET. THE MAD RIVER AT
MORETOWN (MOOV1) BRIEFLY REACHED ACTION STAGE (BETWEEN 8-9
FEET)...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN BELOW 8 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE
DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RUNOFF IN THE CHAMPLAIN
BASIN SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE CHAMPLAIN RISES FROM AROUND 96.5 FEET
UP TO 96.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/KGM
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED FFA FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES AS CELLS ARE TRAINING AND BACK-
BUILDING OVER THE POCONOES ALREADY. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALMOST 4KM
WITH CAPES IN THE 0-4 KM LAYER CLOSE TO 500 J/KG LEADING TO A VERY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN SET UP AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEE PREV DSCN
BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SFC BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THIS
IS OCCURRING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WORKS INTO WRN PA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THE SFC BNDRY WAS FROM NEAR ONEONTA SW TO LACEYVILLE
PA TO NRN SULLIVAN CO IN PA IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA. THE BNDRY
SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED UP IN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SOME
INSOLATION WAS LEADING TO BNDRY LYR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY IN DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY AND IN ALL OF
NE PA EXCEPT BRADFORD AND SUSQUEHANNA CO/S. THIS BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCV
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THE BNDRY WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD UNTIL THIS MCV PASSES BY THIS EVENING.
MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE
BNDRY WHICH SHUD BE FROM A DELHI NY-TUNKHANNOCK PA LINE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES PEAK BTWN 1500 AND
2500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS AS PER 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARND 21Z OR SO.
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CAPE
VALUES...LIFTING WITH THE MCV AND SHEAR PROFILES WHICH ARE
RUNNING 15 KNOTS 0-1 KM, AND 25-30 KNOTS BOTH 0-3 AND 0-6 KM
LAYERS. IN ADDTN...PWATS ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH NOT MUCH DRY AIR
IN THE SOUNDINGS IN NE PA. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL VIGOROUSNESS OF UPDRAFTS FROM THE
PROJECTED CAPE VALUES. PARCELS DON/T REACH 0C ON THE NAM AVP
SOUNDINGS UNTIL 4 KM AND THE 0-4 KM CAPE IS ARND 500 J/KG AT 21Z!!
THIS MEANS VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES IN ANY STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. SO
HAVE MENTIONED THREAT FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN HWO IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA. I CUD
SEE THE MAIN SHOW BEING S AND W OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUR
FORECAST AREA JUST GETTING BRUSHED ON THE SRN FRINGE. SO WILL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...SPC AND WPC HEAVY RAIN DSCNS AND
OTHER WFO/S INPUT BEFORE HOISTING ANY FFA/S.
FARTHER NORTH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH SHOWATER
INDICES AS LOW AS -2C OR SO INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING AS
HEAVY RAIN FARTHER NORTH FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AREAS FARTHER N
STILL CUD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING SO CONT TO MENTION POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN HWO.
AS FOR TIMING...LATEST NAM DOESN/T HAVE ANY PRECIP IN NE PA UNTIL
CLSR TO 00Z. I BELIEVE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS MCV IN WRN PA THAT ACVTY WILL FIRE BTWN 18Z AND 21Z IN CNTRL
AND ERN PA WITH SCTRD TO NUMEROUS SHRA WORKING ACRS C NY AT THIS
TIME...CLSR TO THE LATEST HRRR RADAR TRENDS. THIS FIRST ACVTY ESP
IN NE PA WILL HAVE THE MOST CAPE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR. THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EASTWARD REACHING
NE PA/C NY CLSR TO 00Z-03Z. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
THIS WAVE AND NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP WELL ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. SO HAVE USED THE HRRR MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF THIS FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP AND THE NAM AFTER 00Z. THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITION
LIKELY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CAPES WILL BE LESS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LEADING TO SLOWING MOVING MBE VECTORS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS SRN PA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE MORE BROAD SCALE RAINS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BNDRY CONTS TO BE PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW AND SLOW TO MVE OUT OF
THE AREA. TROF OVER THE MIDWEST REMAINS IN PLACE HELPING TO FIRE
CONV AND STREAM DEEP MOISTURE NEWRD. ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET MVES LTL THRU THE SHRT TERM SO FOCUS OF DVLPG PCPN CONTS OVER
OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. RAIN SHD INTENSIFY TNGT INTO EARLY MON OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AS STRONG WV PASSES THRU...MEANWHILE
CONV CONTS OVER THE SRN HALF.
WV AND INV SFC TROF WILL PASS BEFORE NOON MON BRINGING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE RAIN...ESP OVER THE NRN ZONES. HWVR...WHILE THE SFC BNDRY
IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL BE CLOSE ENUF FOR CONT CONV.
YET ANOTHER WV APRCHS EARLY TUE AND FIRE MOR PCPN...ESP EAST OF
I81 WITH MORE CONV PCPN OVER NEPA. HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
FNLY BRING SOME DRIER WX LTR TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
I WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY WED/THUR, WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
INCREASING FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA LINE SOUTH. THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS
DOES NOT PUSH OUR EARLY WEEK BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH. THE RESULT
WOULD BE THIS BOUNDARY SNEAKING BACK NORTH AS EARLY AS THURSDAY,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE 0Z AND
12Z EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH, AND KEEPS US DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WPC
GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE WITH SHOWERS BY FRIDAY BUT ONLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OFF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP. A WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS ASCENDING THIS SHALLOW FRNTL BNDRY
SO THERE WAS MAINLY IFR IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP WHICH IS
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. AS A SFC LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SRN PA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MORE RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU 12Z. AT KAVP PROJECT FRONT TO PASS THRU BY ARND 06Z AND HENCE
HAVE INTRODUCED IFR AT THIS POINT. KITH...KBGM LIKELY WILL BE LIFR
TO VLIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP WHICH WILL RANGE
FROM LIGHT WRLY AND SRLY UNTIL FROPA OF WHICH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NRLY.
.OUTLOOK...
MON PM...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO PERSIST...AS
SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...EPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1259 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED FFA FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES AS CELLS ARE TRAINING AND BACK-
BUILDING OVER THE POCONOES ALREADY. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALMOST 4KM
WITH CAPES IN THE 0-4 KM LAYER CLOSE TO 500 J/KG LEADING TO A VERY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN SET UP AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEE PREV DSCN
BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SFC BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THIS
IS OCCURRING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WORKS INTO WRN PA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THE SFC BNDRY WAS FROM NEAR ONEONTA SW TO LACEYVILLE
PA TO NRN SULLIVAN CO IN PA IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA. THE BNDRY
SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED UP IN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SOME
INSOLATION WAS LEADING TO BNDRY LYR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY IN DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY AND IN ALL OF
NE PA EXCEPT BRADFORD AND SUSQUEHANNA CO/S. THIS BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCV
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THE BNDRY WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD UNTIL THIS MCV PASSES BY THIS EVENING.
MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE
BNDRY WHICH SHUD BE FROM A DELHI NY-TUNKHANNOCK PA LINE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES PEAK BTWN 1500 AND
2500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS AS PER 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARND 21Z OR SO.
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CAPE
VALUES...LIFTING WITH THE MCV AND SHEAR PROFILES WHICH ARE
RUNNING 15 KNOTS 0-1 KM, AND 25-30 KNOTS BOTH 0-3 AND 0-6 KM
LAYERS. IN ADDTN...PWATS ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH NOT MUCH DRY AIR
IN THE SOUNDINGS IN NE PA. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL VIGOROUSNESS OF UPDRAFTS FROM THE
PROJECTED CAPE VALUES. PARCELS DON/T REACH 0C ON THE NAM AVP
SOUNDINGS UNTIL 4 KM AND THE 0-4 KM CAPE IS ARND 500 J/KG AT 21Z!!
THIS MEANS VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES IN ANY STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. SO
HAVE MENTIONED THREAT FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN HWO IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA. I CUD
SEE THE MAIN SHOW BEING S AND W OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUR
FORECAST AREA JUST GETTING BRUSHED ON THE SRN FRINGE. SO WILL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...SPC AND WPC HEAVY RAIN DSCNS AND
OTHER WFO/S INPUT BEFORE HOISTING ANY FFA/S.
FARTHER NORTH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH SHOWATER
INDICES AS LOW AS -2C OR SO INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING AS
HEAVY RAIN FARTHER NORTH FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AREAS FARTHER N
STILL CUD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING SO CONT TO MENTION POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN HWO.
AS FOR TIMING...LATEST NAM DOESN/T HAVE ANY PRECIP IN NE PA UNTIL
CLSR TO 00Z. I BELIEVE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS MCV IN WRN PA THAT ACVTY WILL FIRE BTWN 18Z AND 21Z IN CNTRL
AND ERN PA WITH SCTRD TO NUMEROUS SHRA WORKING ACRS C NY AT THIS
TIME...CLSR TO THE LATEST HRRR RADAR TRENDS. THIS FIRST ACVTY ESP
IN NE PA WILL HAVE THE MOST CAPE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR. THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EASTWARD REACHING
NE PA/C NY CLSR TO 00Z-03Z. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
THIS WAVE AND NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP WELL ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. SO HAVE USED THE HRRR MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF THIS FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP AND THE NAM AFTER 00Z. THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITION
LIKELY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CAPES WILL BE LESS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LEADING TO SLOWING MOVING MBE VECTORS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS SRN PA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE MORE BROAD SCALE RAINS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BNDRY CONTS TO BE PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW AND SLOW TO MVE OUT OF
THE AREA. TROF OVER THE MIDWEST REMAINS IN PLACE HELPING TO FIRE
CONV AND STREAM DEEP MOISTURE NEWRD. ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET MVES LTL THRU THE SHRT TERM SO FOCUS OF DVLPG PCPN CONTS OVER
OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. RAIN SHD INTENSIFY TNGT INTO EARLY MON OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AS STRONG WV PASSES THRU...MEANWHILE
CONV CONTS OVER THE SRN HALF.
WV AND INV SFC TROF WILL PASS BEFORE NOON MON BRINGING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE RAIN...ESP OVER THE NRN ZONES. HWVR...WHILE THE SFC BNDRY
IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL BE CLOSE ENUF FOR CONT CONV.
YET ANOTHER WV APRCHS EARLY TUE AND FIRE MOR PCPN...ESP EAST OF
I81 WITH MORE CONV PCPN OVER NEPA. HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
FNLY BRING SOME DRIER WX LTR TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
I WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY WED/THUR, WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
INCREASING FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA LINE SOUTH. THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS
DOES NOT PUSH OUR EARLY WEEK BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH. THE RESULT
WOULD BE THIS BOUNDARY SNEAKING BACK NORTH AS EARLY AS THURSDAY,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE 0Z AND
12Z EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH, AND KEEPS US DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WPC
GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE WITH SHOWERS BY FRIDAY BUT ONLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PREVAILS. ATTM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH
OF KBGM. THIS FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT... BUT SOON EXPECT THE FROPA TO PASS OVER KBGM. NORTH AND
WEST OF KBGM TAF SITES EITHER HAVE LOW END MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS... AND EXPECT KBGM TO SOON SEE IFR. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA AND
MAY DETERIORATE MORE AFTER SUNSET.
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH... KAVP WILL LIKELY
SEE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OVER KAVP AT 22Z... THEN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FROPA... AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO PERSIST...AS
SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...EPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.
WED AND THU...VFR LIKELY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1049 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTION APPEARS TO FINALLY BE DYING
DOWN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BECOMES MORE AND MORE CAPPED OFF DUE TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS PLUS THE 18Z GFS
SUGGESTING WE MAY SEE CONVECTION JUMP EASTWARD INTO HORRY COUNTY AND
THE INTERIOR CAPE FEAR COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 3-4 AM EDT.
WHILE THE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS CLOSE TO THE COAST CONTINUED MOISTENING OF AT AND
ABOVE 850 MB WILL OPEN THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO I HAVE
INTRODUCED SMALL (20-30%) POPS FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD ACROSS
WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INLAND SHOULD KEEP
SKY COVER FIRMLY IN THE "MOSTLY CLOUDY" CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
MAINLY FROM BLOWOFF CIRRUS...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THIS.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXCEPT WARMER ON THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
THE CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO DRIFT EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING THE APPALACHIANS WED AND WED NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT CERTAIN...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ONCE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THEY WILL LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE MID AND LATE EVE. THUS...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY POINT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION...BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE ENHANCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN
BANDS/LINES...WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND
PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IS THE CASE UPSTREAM TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY
LEAD TO A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OR TWO.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER INLAND AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY 90 DEGREE
READINGS EITHER DAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT. LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THE
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE
RESIDUAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
INCLUDE A BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND WAVERING INLAND
FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS
FEATURE BASICALLY WASHES OUT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST AND THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH THE
SEABREEZE. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY TRENDING DOWN TO GOOD CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR AT
THE COASTAL SITES. OVERNIGHT...MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. VFR ON TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE
TO CONVECTION AT KFLO/KLBT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
INLAND SITES REMAIN QUIET WITH VFR. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS...AS NOTED BY
FCST SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES. ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY... A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD STILL BE INLAND FROM
THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
(HIGHEST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR) ARE STILL ALMOST PURELY SOUTHEAST SWELL
AT 8-9 SECONDS PERIOD. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE APPARENTLY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH OF A SHORTER PERIOD CHOP.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT...FROM THE N AND W...WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ILL
DEFINED LATE WEEK. VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
OCCUR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUE WITH MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE ON SE AND THEN S DURING THE DAY WED AND
WED NIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST WED NIGHT...UP TO
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE WAVERING
FRONT THAT INITIALLY IS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH THE
SAME PROGRESSION OF EVENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FRONT.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL FOUR FOOTER OR TWO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
BETTER-THAN-USUAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THIS STRETCH. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HAVE SPLIT BY TUE WITH THE
POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING SRN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
CUTS OFF OVER THE TN VALLEY. AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
STAND TO SEE THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL DPVA
(ALBEIT WEAK BASED ON THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW) AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
THROUGH EARLY TUE... BUT THIS WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE SPREADING
EAST WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD WOBBLE/DRIFT OF THE LOW THROUGH WED. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF NYC DOWN
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO AL EARLY TUE... WITH A WEAK LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NC... OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN. WE`LL BE WITHIN THE THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE TUE WITH
WEAK FLOW AND PW OVER 150% OF NORMAL... BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGE... STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STUBBORN WRN ATLANTIC MID LEVEL RIDGE. SREF PLACES A 70-90+% OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TAPERING TO LESS THAN
50% IN THE EXTREME EAST ON TUE. GFE MUCAPE FORECASTS ARE FOR 500-
1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC (BIT HIGH ON THE NAM) BUT WITH
JUST 10-15 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THESE INDICATORS...
WILL HAVE 70% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
EVENING IN THE WRN CWA TAPERING TO 40-50% EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT BUT IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST GIVEN THE LINGERING MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. MODELS FAVOR DIPPING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NRN AND NW NC EARLY WED... PUSHED BY A COOLER SURFACE HIGH CROSSING
THE NORTHEAST STATES AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD... AS INVERTED TROUGHING
BECOMES MORE DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW... 50-60% POPS WED ARE WARRANTED. ONCE AGAIN...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BUT NOT END OVERNIGHT.
WET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THU AS THE LOW STARTS TO OPEN AND
TRACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL TO MODERATE DAYTIME MUCAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL STAY WEAK BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO AROUND 20 KTS. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH GENERATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF AREAWIDE WITH ATLANTIC-
SOURCE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS (50-60%) THROUGH THU.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRI INTO SUN. THE WEAK BAGGY MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION FRI... BUT THE GFS
THEN DROPS ENERGY BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...
CULMINATING IN ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD BY SUN. THE
ECMWF IN CONTRAST MAINTAINS A VERY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH ONLY VERY WEAK DPVA. BOTH HAVE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING
HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWERING PW
VALUES. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD LOWER COVERAGE WITH MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI-SUN.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP BALANCING THE
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL READINGS WED... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
BACKDOOR FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH
FRONTOLYSIS AND A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS FIRING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THREATENING BOTH KINT AND KGSO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE EAST REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FOR NOW SO ALL OTHER SITES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN THE
TRIAD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE THAN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD GO SUB-VFR AS EARLY
AS 9Z AND EXTEND TO 15Z OR BEYOND IN THE TRIAD. OTHER SITES COULD
SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER.
LONG TERM: FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND AS A RESULT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP DRIVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
MOST LIKELY MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST FROM WELL NE OF BERMUDA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CONTINUING THIS EARLY
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IN A
MORE ISOLATED FASHION THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO EVEN DRIER
AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND A CLEARLY
EVIDENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THIS IS PUTTING A LID ON
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND HAVE CONTINUED ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH NIGHTFALL WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT
THEREAFTER. THIS IS ECHOED BY THE AVAILABLE HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL
WRF GUIDANCE...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SW...ESPECIALLY INLAND...LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...ENOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
HELP MINS STAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...BUT BELIEVE THE SETUP IS BETTER FOR WARMER LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT AND HAVE BLENDED THE VERY-CLOSE MAV/MET NUMBERS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED THANKS TO MINS REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE SLUGGISHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER ATLANTIC RIDGE IS VERY RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP
GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE SE AND
S...AND IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TO OUR N AND NW WED MORNING. THE
NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR WEST DO NOT CLIP THE AREA AS THE LOW APPEARS TO GET
CUTOFF TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE MAY BEGIN TO GET BRUSHED
BY SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...VERY MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NO LONGER SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TAP BLEEDS FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR MON...BELOW
THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE...TO SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS A
BBP TO FLO LINE AND WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE HERE. TUE...WILL DOUBLE
POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO CHANCE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS ROUND 90
MON AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SEABREEZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND
APPEARS TO MAKE A MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND FIND A HOME
OFF THE COAST THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE...LIKELY POPS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING WEAKENS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES
STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARMUP A FEW DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IT WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE SE AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY
INLAND...BUT WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC PUSH AND JUST HEATING TO DRIVE IT DO
NOT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NEAR KILM...BUT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT OR TOO FAR INLAND
TO MENTION IN COASTAL TAFS.
VFR...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR VSBYS AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP
COASTAL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT VFR...WITH VFR LEVEL LOW CIGS...MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS AS IT RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL SHORT OF THE
OBSERVED SWELL PERIOD THIS AFTN...AND WAVES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD
FROM SWAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FT...BUT HAVE
SEEN SOME 5 FTERS AS CLOSE AS FRYING PAN SHOALS. WITH GUIDANCE
UNRELIABLE...HAVE OPTED TO BASICALLY KEEP WAVES CONSTANT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE. THIS KEEPS
SEAS AT 2-4 FT...WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM PREDOMINANTLY SWELL-DRIVEN
THANKS TO SE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SEAWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS WED MORNING. THE FLOW THIS
PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE AND S MON AND THEN S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY ABATING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HAS
BEEN UNDER-FORECASTING THE 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL IN THE
NEAR TERM. WILL SHOW SEAS SUBSIDING ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH THE DAY
MON...BUT AT A SLOWER PACE GIVEN THE SWELL WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER
TO DECAY THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT MON...2 TO
3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
VIA THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. A VERY GRADUAL SHIFT TO
EAST THEN NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO THE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS OR SO.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE MOSTLY 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
FEW FOUR FOOTERS SNEAKING IN THE ZONES FRIDAY VIA A MORE ROBUST
SWELL COMPONENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WETTER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MAINLY TIED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY. THIS SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF VERY
MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS COUPLED WITH A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE TIME
FRAME WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. BASED ON UPPER
SUPPORT...POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THE THREE DAYS TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE REGION TO START THE DAY. PLAN TO HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER WITH TIME. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO
RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS MODEL GUIDANCE
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN
GULF.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY FUNNEL ENOUGH COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RECOVER
BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS FIRING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THREATENING BOTH KINT AND KGSO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE EAST REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FOR NOW SO ALL OTHER SITES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN THE
TRIAD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE THAN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD GO SUB-VFR AS EARLY
AS 9Z AND EXTEND TO 15Z OR BEYOND IN THE TRIAD. OTHER SITES COULD
SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER.
LONG TERM: FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND AS A RESULT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP DRIVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE WOULD MAKE A DECENT FORECAST TODAY
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS RIDGING BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS LOCALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH
AROUND 90 WELL INLAND...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT
AT THE BEACHES. THIS WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
SPC HAD A MRGL RISK FOR THEIR SWODY1 RIGHT UP TO THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...BUT HAVE SINCE PULLED THAT BACK CONSIDERABLY. THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AS ONCE AGAIN DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL LID SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY. IN FACT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS REDUCED POP TO MAINTAIN
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF...DEVELOPS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY...BUT THIS STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE AND EVEN MOVE WEST...SO
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR...IF NOT A LITTLE
LESS...THAN YESTERDAY. PWATS ARE ONLY ABOUT 1.25 INCHES TODAY...SO
MANY COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY...AND ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY
AFTER DARK.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT...AND
LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL WX GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
EAST AS A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUES EVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST...LEAVING SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH TO CUT
OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MON INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT AND POSSIBLY HUNG UP NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...FINALLY REACHING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY WED
MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION TO SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT IS CLOSER TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. THEREFORE MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN INLAND AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND
CONVERGENCE AROUND HIGH. BY LATE TUES RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BRUNT OF
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WEATHER REMAINING FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH.
AS WE LOSE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AS RIDGE SLIPS EAST
THROUGH LATE TUES ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER HEIGHTS. WARM BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO
70. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MID 80S MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 90
INLAND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUES AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BIT LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRETCHED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WED MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WEAKEN MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE BUT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FEEDING MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER END DEWPOINT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IT WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE SE AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY
INLAND...BUT WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC PUSH AND JUST HEATING TO DRIVE IT DO
NOT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
...MAINLY NEAR KILM...BUT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT OR TOO FAR
INLAND TO MENTION IN COASTAL TAFS.
VFR...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR VSBYS AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP
COASTAL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT VFR...WITH VFR LEVEL LOW CIGS...MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM AN
EXPANSIVE CENTER NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AT THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE EAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE OR FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SE IS POSSIBLE. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM TO REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED.
GUIDANCE IS UNDER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL...AS THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING
3-4 FT AT 11 SEC...A FULL 2 SEC LONGER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL
KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT TODAY...HIGHEST NEAR THE 20 NM
BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY
MAKE IT SOUTH REACHING THE WATERS MID WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
WINDS INITIALLY BUT WILL SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WIND WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS
MOST OF THE TIME WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY
DAMPENING OUT THROUGH TUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SOUTH
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY REACH THE WATERS BY THURS. AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EAST-SE BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP S-SE WINDS LESS THEN 10 KTS AND MAY SEE A GREATER SHIFT
TO E-NE IF FRONT DOES MAKE IT SOUTH BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS
3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK LATE THURS IN
INCREASING ON SHORE E TO NE FLOW IF FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WETTER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MAINLY TIED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY. THIS SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF VERY
MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS COUPLED WITH A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE TIME
FRAME WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. BASED ON UPPER
SUPPORT...POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THE THREE DAYS TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE REGION TO START THE DAY. PLAN TO HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER WITH TIME. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO
RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS MODEL GUIDANCE
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN
GULF.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY FUNNEL ENOUGH COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RECOVER
BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS WILL AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING (11-16Z)... WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
OCCURRENCE AT KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION... A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGSO/KINT THIS MORNING AS WELL. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD
LIFT BY 16Z OR SO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
TRIAD REGION (KGSO/KINT). THUS... HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KGSO/KINT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE... PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE TAFS.
LOOKING AHEAD: CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS MON-WED AS A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE WOULD MAKE A DECENT FORECAST TODAY
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS RIDGING BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS LOCALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH
AROUND 90 WELL INLAND...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT
AT THE BEACHES. THIS WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
SPC HAD A MRGL RISK FOR THEIR SWODY1 RIGHT UP TO THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...BUT HAVE SINCE PULLED THAT BACK CONSIDERABLY. THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AS ONCE AGAIN DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL LID SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY. IN FACT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS REDUCED POP TO MAINTAIN
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF...DEVELOPS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY...BUT THIS STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE AND EVEN MOVE WEST...SO
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR...IF NOT A LITTLE
LESS...THAN YESTERDAY. PWATS ARE ONLY ABOUT 1.25 INCHES TODAY...SO
MANY COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY...AND ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY
AFTER DARK.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT...AND
LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL WX GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
EAST AS A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUES EVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST...LEAVING SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH TO CUT
OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MON INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT AND POSSIBLY HUNG UP NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...FINALLY REACHING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY WED
MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION TO SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT IS CLOSER TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. THEREFORE MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN INLAND AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND
CONVERGENCE AROUND HIGH. BY LATE TUES RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BRUNT OF
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WEATHER REMAINING FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH.
AS WE LOSE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AS RIDGE SLIPS EAST
THROUGH LATE TUES ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER HEIGHTS. WARM BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO
70. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MID 80S MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 90
INLAND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUES AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BIT LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRETCHED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WED MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WEAKEN MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE BUT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FEEDING MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER END DEWPOINT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KFLO HAS EXPERIENCED
TEMPO IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO RE-OCCUR. WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT N.
EXPECT THE SAME GENERAL WEATHER TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT VFR FOR THE MOST PART AS
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NW-NE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL TEND TO DECREASE AND MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT TO KLBT/KFLO BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF IFR CIGS INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THU.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM AN
EXPANSIVE CENTER NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AT THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE EAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE OR FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SE IS POSSIBLE. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM TO REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED.
GUIDANCE IS UNDER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL...AS THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING
3-4 FT AT 11 SEC...A FULL 2 SEC LONGER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL
KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT TODAY...HIGHEST NEAR THE 20 NM
BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY
MAKE IT SOUTH REACHING THE WATERS MID WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
WINDS INITIALLY BUT WILL SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WIND WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS
MOST OF THE TIME WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY
DAMPENING OUT THROUGH TUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SOUTH
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY REACH THE WATERS BY THURS. AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EAST-SE BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP S-SE WINDS LESS THEN 10 KTS AND MAY SEE A GREATER SHIFT
TO E-NE IF FRONT DOES MAKE IT SOUTH BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS
3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK LATE THURS IN
INCREASING ON SHORE E TO NE FLOW IF FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
ALL EYES TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EARLY EVENING. TSTMS
ONGOING IN A CLUSTER WEST OF MINOT AND NORTHWEST OF BOTTINEAU IN
MANITOBA. AERA OF STORMS IN MANITOBA DEVELOPING A BIT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT IN THE MINOT-DICKINSON
ZONE. RAP SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
CAPES DROP OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THIS ZONE TOWARD DVL. THUS DO
ANTICIPATE WEAKENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...BUT SOME WILL
SURVIVE AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOCATION
REMAIN NOT TOO CLEAR. NOTHING AS OF YET IN SW ND IN MAX
INSTABILITY ZONE..BUT STORMS WEST OF MINOT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CARRINGTON AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME UPPER JET ENERGY
FEEDING INTO IT. NO REAL SFC BOUNDARY BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING BETWEEN ESTEVAN AND BRANDON IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE ARE MOVING DUE EAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE FA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OUT OVER EASTERN MT WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ATTM THO. DESPITE THIS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WEST/NW FA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETTING THE STAGE...THIS
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT BREAK IT OUT
ANYWHERE TUE AND HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN GUIDANCE HIGHS AS A
RESULT. FROM 12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NORTHWEST SD MOVING TO MOBRIDGE SD...NOT A FAST MOVER BY ANY
MEANS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS KEEP DECENT
850MB FLOW OVER EASTERN SD UP INTO NW MN IMPINGING ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF HEAVIER
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER JET HOLDS BACK CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW. EXPECT BETTER HEATING AND CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC LOW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THINK TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BACK NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND IF IT EXPANDS INTO THIS FA WILL
BE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THESE INITIAL TSTMS
SPREAD EAST-NE. SPC HAS REMOVED THE ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
POSSIBLY DUE TO NOT ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. EITHER WAY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS WEST OF A LINE FROM
KBWP-KFAR-KGFK-KDVL. THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON WED. THEN A
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN AND WI. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...BUT
MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BLENDED
SOLUTION GIVES TOM LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN SOME LOWER ONES FOR MONDAY AS THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW TEENS C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH UNCERTAINITY NOT ONLY IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND TIMING AT THE
TAF SITES THIS FCST PD BUT ALSO IN ANY DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS DOES INCREASE OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO IDEA OF SOME LOWER CIGS
SEEMS REASONABLE. ATTM KEPT IDEA FROM PREV TAFS OF LOW END VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TIMING AND SPECIFICS
JUST NOT CLEAR ATTM. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE 10 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP DURING THE WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE AREA ORIENTED N-S CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS AS WELL.
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND IT. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR START DRYING THE AREA OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RH FIELDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALSO STILL DRY SLOT
THE AREA BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE
PULLED POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASED
POPS OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER.
PREV DISCUSSION->
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVEL
INTO OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70...THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION ARE MOST
PREVALENT. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD SEE ONLY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A REGIME OF WEAKER FORCING BUT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY.
A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER SHALLOW CONVECTION AND WEAK WIND FIELDS.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOUT A HALF
AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH GENEROUS
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGH CAPACITY OF SOILS AND STREAMS
RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBILITY NORTH OF I-70 IN HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION...WITH
HIGH RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHILE CLOUDS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. FOR TUESDAY...THE
HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND ALL LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY ROBUST NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH UP TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MODERATION TO THE LOW TO MID
70S IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO TRANSITION TO IFR FOR OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT HAS ALLOWED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS TO
FORM. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT HAS FORMED AS A DRY
SLOT FROM 500 TO 700 MB HAS FORMED (AS SEEN ON SDF AMDAR
SOUNDING). GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY TIGHT.
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR
CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN CIGS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES. THE SREF SHOWS IFR STAYING FURTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THAT KCVG HAS ALREADY GONE IFR HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS.
MONDAY DURING THE DAY EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS MVFR AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP DURING THE WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE AREA ORIENTED N-S CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS AS WELL.
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND IT. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR START DRYING THE AREA OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RH FIELDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALSO STILL DRY SLOT
THE AREA BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE
PULLED POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASED
POPS OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER.
PREV DISCUSSION->
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVEL
INTO OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70...THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION ARE MOST
PREVALENT. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD SEE ONLY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A REGIME OF WEAKER FORCING BUT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY.
A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER SHALLOW CONVECTION AND WEAK WIND FIELDS.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOUT A HALF
AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH GENEROUS
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGH CAPACITY OF SOILS AND STREAMS
RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBILITY NORTH OF I-70 IN HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION...WITH
HIGH RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHILE CLOUDS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. FOR TUESDAY...THE
HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND ALL LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY ROBUST NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH UP TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MODERATION TO THE LOW TO MID
70S IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPREAD TO CVG/LUK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CIGS DROP INTO IFR TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
OCCURRENCE AND KEPT CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...DO
EXPECT IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT PER SREFS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
824 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME CLEARING HAS BEGUN FROM
WEST TO EAST, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL NOT COME TO AN END, BUT RATHER TAPER OFF
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND START CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE COAST, IFR CIGS WITH LOCAL LIFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. VFR CIGS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THESE MAY LOCALLY LOWER
CIGS TO MVFR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT, MONDAY, 01 JUNE 2015...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OFFSHORE...AND WILL COUPLE WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND
TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WIND DOMINATED SEAS WILL START BUILDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO.
MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A
REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST...GIVING WINDS A STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND DIMINISHING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
-MSC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS
NORCAL INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS EVENING KEEPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
PRETTY WEAK (<500J/KG)...OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS
RIGHT WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING, SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN
THERE. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T GO AWAY COMPLETELY.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE OREGON
COAST. WE`RE STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WON`T BE
NEARLY AS GREAT AS IT IS TODAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT, SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CASCADES, TRINITY ALPS OR THE EAST SIDE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WEST OF
THE CASCADES, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND WARMER, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPILDE
LONG TERM...FRIDAY, JUNE 5TH THROUGH MONDAY, JUNE 8TH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO NEVADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL LINGER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, BUT TO WHAT
DEGREE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
FORECAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
IN SUMMARY, WE EXPECT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON LIKELY TO REACH THE
WARMEST VALUE THEY HAVE OBSERVED, THUS FAR, THIS SPRING THIS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 85-95F
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT WARMER.
THE CHALLENGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PINNING DOWN DETAILS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT WILL BE
POSED BY SPOKES OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE ANTICIPATE THAT
AREAS FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR AREAS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES, WE EXPECT THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGHING FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COMBINES WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HEATING.
OF COURSE, JUST AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, THE PATH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND, THEREFORE, FORECAST DETAILS TEND TO CHANGE
A REASONABLE AMOUNT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO STAY TUNED FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN THESE DETAILS. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BPN/MSC/MAS/BTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
746 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN THE BOOKS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
BUSY AS SUNDAY. ONE LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CROSSED I-84 AND
DEPOSITED PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL. A FEW OTHER SEVERE STORMS
STRUCK RURAL AREAS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WEAKENED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO THE STORMS BECAME LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS. THEY BOTH DEVELOP AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OREGON. HAVE TRENDED THE POP FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TSTMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LIGHTNING TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. 78
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN AREA OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD ACROSS KPDT AND KALW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. PLAN
ON USING VCSH DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY RATHER THAN CARRYING A
SHOWER GROUP. CEILINGS WILL BE 5-7KFT BKN-SCT AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
ABOVE. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT AND SOME
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 69 49 68 / 60 30 20 20
ALW 57 71 54 70 / 60 30 20 20
PSC 58 74 54 75 / 60 20 20 10
YKM 54 69 51 71 / 60 40 20 10
HRI 57 72 54 73 / 60 30 20 10
ELN 51 69 51 70 / 70 50 30 20
RDM 47 64 42 65 / 60 50 20 20
LGD 52 65 48 65 / 70 60 30 30
GCD 51 66 46 67 / 70 60 30 20
DLS 53 68 56 72 / 60 60 20 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
78/78/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS
NORCAL INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS EVENING KEEPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
PRETTY WEAK (<500J/KG)...OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS
RIGHT WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING, SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN
THERE. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T GO AWAY COMPLETELY.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE OREGON
COAST. WE`RE STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WON`T BE
NEARLY AS GREAT AS IT IS TODAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT, SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CASCADES, TRINITY ALPS OR THE EAST SIDE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WEST OF
THE CASCADES, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND WARMER, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPILDE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY, JUNE 5TH THROUGH MONDAY, JUNE 8TH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO NEVADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL LINGER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, BUT TO WHAT
DEGREE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
FORECAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
IN SUMMARY, WE EXPECT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON LIKELY TO REACH THE
WARMEST VALUE THEY HAVE OBSERVED, THUS FAR, THIS SPRING THIS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 85-95F
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT WARMER.
THE CHALLENGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PINNING DOWN DETAILS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT WILL BE
POSED BY SPOKES OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE ANTICIPATE THAT
AREAS FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR AREAS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES, WE EXPECT THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGHING FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COMBINES WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HEATING.
OF COURSE, JUST AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, THE PATH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND, THEREFORE, FORECAST DETAILS TEND TO CHANGE
A REASONABLE AMOUNT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO STAY TUNED FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN THESE DETAILS. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND START CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE COAST, IFR CIGS WITH LOCAL LIFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. VFR CIGS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THESE MAY LOCALLY LOWER
CIGS TO MVFR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT, MONDAY, 01 JUNE 2015...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OFFSHORE...AND WILL COUPLE WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND
TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WIND DOMINATED SEAS WILL START BUILDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND VERY STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A
REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST...GIVING WINDS A STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND DIMINISHING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
-MSC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
MAS/BTL/MSC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
255 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INLAND ON MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY.
COOLER...CLOUDIER AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD RISE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES DUE TO A CAP. HOWEVER...THIS CAP
HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WITH THE FIRST FEW
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR MCKENZIE PASS PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO POP OVER
THE SISKIYOUS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO
THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS
THAT DO GET GOING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. SUSPECT THESE WILL LARGELY
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FAR EASTERN LANE...
LINN AND MARION COUNTIES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING ONE CLIP
THE REGION.
THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORT MAX DRIVING CONVECTION OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN 700-
500MB THETAE LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TRAVERSING THE REGION...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND EVEN ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO
TO ZERO FOR THE COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MEANWHILE SSEO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHTNING IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL WITH FORECASTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION...UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH SHOULD SPREAD PLENTY OF MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN...THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST...PERIODS OF MORNING
CLOUDS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
/NEUMAN
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST WILL LIFT NORTH...BRINGING AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 04Z MON.
STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS REACH FURTHER NORTH
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
10000 FT BY 00Z MON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE TERMINAL AND
VICINITY AFTER 02Z...BUT ONLY A 20 PCT CHANCE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z MON MORNING. /27
&&
.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECT A SOUTH SURGE STARTING OVER THE SRN WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THEN PUSHING N...WITH WINDS STAYING AROUND 10-15 KT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTH WIND OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. COULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
WATERS.
SEAS TO REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SPECTRAL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEVERAL 2 OR 3 FT SWELL SETS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANY OF WHICH COULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SHOULD START TO
SEE MORE FRESH SWELL LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE STRONGER NLY WIND.
WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
912 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
LOCATED FROM DELAWARE INTO N VIRGINIA AT 00Z. A LOOK AT LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV NR KGAI LIFTING
NE. RAP TRACKS THIS FEATURE THRU OUR SE COUNTIES BY ARND
05Z...AFTER WHICH THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN SHOULD WANE CONSIDERABLY.
ALTHOUGH THE SE COUNTIES FROM ADAMS TO LANCASTER APPEAR IN LINE
FOR A PERIOD OF MOD TO HVY RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT HIGH...AS FRONTAL BNDY AND FOCUS OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE BORDER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO
WILL CARRY WATCH THRU MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NR TERM MDL DATA...OVERNIGHT POPS RANGE
FROM NR ZERO ACROSS WARREN COUNTY...TO 100 PCT FROM THE HARRISBURG
AREA SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...CAUSING
LINGERING -SHRA TO TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HIGH PRES AND
ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL EDGE INTO NORTHERN PA...BRINGING
BRIGHTENING SKIES THERE. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NERLY FLOW AND DEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUD COVER AND
NE FLOW OFF THE STILL CHILLY N ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WAY BLW
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/NAM
POINT TOWARD HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM
AVG ACROSS THE S TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AT LNS AND MDT
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO AOO AND UNV LATER TONIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY...GIVEN THE STRONG
JUNE SUN. HOWEVER...NOT CLEAR CUT...AFTER A WARM AND FAIRLY DRY
MAY...PATTERN FAVORS COOLER WEATHER AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY AREAS
OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME LATER IN THE WEEK...AS WE ARE GETTING
TO THAT TIME OF YEAR THAT COLD FRONTS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN S PA OR N MD.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
IT MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR EARLY...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTERIN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE
TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW
MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR
THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 21Z TAFS SENT.
WIND GUST TO 48 KNOTS AT MDT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTERIN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE
TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW
MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR
THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
534 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD.
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW MTN ZONES ATTM. A WELL-DEFINED
AREA OF 925-850 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE...AND ELEVATED PARCEL
LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO C BASED WITHIN THE SAME LAYER...WILL
SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA
ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL BE SMALLER AND MORE SPOTTY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OUT IN A NEARLY EAST-WEST
DIRECTION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE/PERSISTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AND STORM MOVEMENT NEARLY
PARALLEL TO IT AT TIMES...ENCOURAGED US TO FORECAST A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-1.25
INCHES...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY AFTER 2 PM.
IN ADDITION...MDTLY STRONG LLVL VEERING AND 0-1KM HELICITY /ALONG
WITH POCKETS OF EHI BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM ABOUT
KFKL...KDUJ...KUNV AND KSEG/KIPT BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z TO 0.1Z
TEMPS WILL START THE DAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE NRN MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE M/U60S...WHILE
MIN READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL STAY AOA THE 70F
MARK.
8H TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE M80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...HEATING
OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF OHIO...SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...THUS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THIS AREA TO THE
75-80F RANGE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LVL CAA...COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE L60S ALONG THE NY
BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING CFRONT...CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE CAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
THUS...WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SVR WX SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCAL AMTS NR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR DRY STRETCH OF WX...THE FLOODING THREAT
DOESN/T APPEAR ESPECIALLY HIGH. MDL CONSENSUS PLACES THE BEST CHC
OF SHRA/TSRA AND GREATEST MEAN QPF ALONG AND JUST S OF
FRONT...SPANNING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG I-80. POPS RANGE FROM
LIKELY IN THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
SUN AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING
AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND
WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO
ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IPT/UNV TROUBLE SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CIG/VIS. OPENED
TROUBLE TICKET ON MISSING UNV CIG. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TS MOVG
ENEWD BUT NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IND TO PIT
BY 00Z MON AND THEN PUSH SLOWLY EWD ALONG/S OF PA- MD LINE TWD
DELMARVA BY 12Z TUE. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SWD TO THE I80 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DIVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND 60+F DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR/S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NMRS TSTMS OVER WRN PA BY
20Z WITH LESS CVRG TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES
TO CONVEY TSTM IMPACT RISK EXCEPT BFD WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
COOL/STABLE AIR WITH ENE SFC WINDS BY THIS AFTN. IN GENERAL LOOK
LOW CIGS TO COVER THE FAR NRN AIRSPACE WITH MARGINAL TO VFR CONDS
PREVAILING IN THE SOUTH. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS /WITH LCL IFR/
LOOK PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TAFS WITH
PCPN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD. THE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 FROM ...TO
ERIE AND BUFFALO AT 2 AM. THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MUCH
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
ATTM. A WELL DEFINED RIBBON OF 925-850 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND
ELEVATED PARCEL LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO C /AND BASED WITHIN
THE SAME LAYER/...WILL LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING TO THE ENE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS..AND AFFECTING MANLY THE WESTERN AND NRN MTNS OF PENN.
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DECENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF SFC INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENN /AND FEEDING NORTH TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR/ WILL
MAINTAIN/FOCUS THE BULK OF PRECIP TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN
PENN.
CONVECTION WILL BE SMALLER AND MORE SPOTTY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN NEARLY STALLS AND STRETCHES OUT IN A NEARLY EAST-
WEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE/PERSISTENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND STORM MOVEMENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT AT
TIMES...ENCOURAGED US TO FORECAST A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MODERATELY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-1.25 INCHES...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY AFTER 2
PM.
WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BIT OF FOG THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY. HOWEVER...
WILL
TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE U50S OVR THE N TIER TOWARD DAWN W/ARRIVAL
OF COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE M/U60S EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF PA
TODAY. COLD FRONT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL BE PROGGED TO
STALL OUT NEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATER
TODAY.
8H TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE M80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...HEATING
OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF OHIO...SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...THUS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THIS AREA TO THE
75-80F RANGE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LVL CAA...COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE L60S ALONG THE NY
BORDER.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE CAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. THUS...WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
SVR WX SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE
FRONT COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LOCAL AMTS NR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR DRY STRETCH OF
WX...THE FLOODING THREAT DOESN/T APPEAR ESPECIALLY HIGH. MDL
CONSENSUS PLACES THE BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AND GREATEST MEAN QPF
ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT...SPANNING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG
I-80. POPS RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA SUN AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING
AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND
WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO
ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IPT/UNV TROUBLE SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CIG/VIS. OPENED
TROUBLE TICKET ON MISSING UNV CIG. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TS MOVG
ENEWD BUT NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IND TO PIT
BY 00Z MON AND THEN PUSH SLOWLY EWD ALONG/S OF PA- MD LINE TWD
DELMARVA BY 12Z TUE. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SWD TO THE I80 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DIVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND 60+F DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR/S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NMRS TSTMS OVER WRN PA BY
20Z WITH LESS CVRG TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES
TO CONVEY TSTM IMPACT RISK EXCEPT BFD WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
COOL/STABLE AIR WITH ENE SFC WINDS BY THIS AFTN. IN GENERAL LOOK
LOW CIGS TO COVER THE FAR NRN AIRSPACE WITH MARGINAL TO VFR CONDS
PREVAILING IN THE SOUTH. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS /WITH LCL IFR/
LOOK PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TAFS WITH
PCPN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST BY THIS EVENING HEADING EAST
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG LLJ...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR...EXPECT THE
MODELS TO BE ACCURATE AND INCREASED CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STILL HAVE
MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
UP TO 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG. DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE/FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP.
WITH ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY. SHAVED OFF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT THEM BACK MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...AND PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
THE LOW THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY INITIALLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS INFLUENCE THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPS THE
FORECAST LOADED WITH CHANCE POPS. PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE ACTION
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF TERMINALS...MOST LIKELY THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...AND THEN THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z
TUESDAY AND 21Z TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR
CIGS/VISBIES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW FOR SEEING THIS HAPPEN...SO WILL LEAVE TAFS
VFR AND MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXIST MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SMALL AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WITH PREVAILING GRADIENT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY REMAINS
THAT ANY CLOUDINESS IMPACTING KSUX AND KFSD TAF SITES WILL BE JUST
INTO THE VFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY PAST TODAY. DECENT COVERAGE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BEST THREAT
FOR SOME PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KHON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING TIME OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AND UPPER
DYNAMICS OUTRACING THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT KEEPS
MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR KFSD OR KSUX BELOW THRESHOLD FOR
THE TIME. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RETURN SOME
LOWER CLOUDINESS TOWARD KSUX TOWARD END OF PERIOD...AND FOR NOW
HAVE HINTED TOWARD LOWER END OF VFR RANGE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
1500 TO 3500 FT MID MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF
SHRA OR BKN/OVC MVFR CEILINGS AT KFSD AND KHON...BUT POTENTIALLY
LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN KHON. HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS IN
SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES...AT LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM AROUND 70 AT THE COAST TO AROUND 60
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE SKY IS GENERALLY CLEAR. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME ENHANCED COVERGENCE AT THE COAST FROM
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP BROKEN CEILING THERE...WITH CLEAR
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
STORM THERE BUT MAINLY DRY AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED CU
NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT THE USUAL SPOTS...MAINLY LBX AND CXO...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER IS LOOKING UP...PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD. COLD FRONT GETTING DIFFUSE BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART IN THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH (BEHIND
THE FRONT). SO EXPECT TO SEE A PLEASANT DAY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRYING OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS HEADED TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR FROM CLEVELAND TO EDNA WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING AND 30S ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PW NEAR THE COAST CURRENTLY 1.4-1.6" PER GPS
IPWV WHILE BASTROP IS DOWN TO 1". EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO
STRUGGLE TO FIGHT INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER OF THE LL ATMOSPHERE BUT LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND REMAINING
MOISTURE (AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MB) WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AFTER REACHING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 82. STORMS SHOULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE
COAST IF THEY FORM. BY EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD END AND A
PLEASANT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DRY EVENING ON TAP. RESPITE FROM THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 64 85 66 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 87 67 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER IS LOOKING UP...PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD. COLD FRONT GETTING DIFFUSE BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART IN THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH (BEHIND
THE FRONT). SO EXPECT TO SEE A PLEASANT DAY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRYING OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS HEADED TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR FROM CLEVELAND TO EDNA WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING AND 30S ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PW NEAR THE COAST CURRENTLY 1.4-1.6" PER GPS
IPWV WHILE BASTROP IS DOWN TO 1". EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO
STRUGGLE TO FIGHT INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER OF THE LL ATMOSPHERE BUT LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND REMAINING
MOISTURE (AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MB) WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AFTER REACHING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 82. STORMS SHOULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE
COAST IF THEY FORM. BY EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD END AND A
PLEASANT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DRY EVENING ON TAP. RESPITE FROM THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 64 85 66 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 87 67 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
MARINE...46
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 64 85 66 87 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 66 87 67 88 / 30 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AREA RADARS SHOW ONLY VERY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HRRR AND MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THAT AIRMASS HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER FROM SUNDAY STORMS. WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS WELL. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE/
SCT TO BKN VFR DECK CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER KAUS/KSAT/KSSF/KDRT
TERMINALS. CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH 09-12Z TO MVFR AND IFR
EXCEPT KDRT WHICH SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000FT. SOME -SHRA/-DZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 17Z TO VFR. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN WITH WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TO REDEVELOP WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KDRT/KSAT/KSSF.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND FORECAST DATA
MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL THE OBSERVATION
CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR THIS TAF SITE
UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ONGOING EAST OF I-35. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 86 66 88 68 / - 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 85 64 87 66 / - 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 87 66 88 67 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 65 86 66 / - 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 70 91 71 / - 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 65 87 67 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 87 66 89 67 / - 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 65 87 67 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 85 67 87 69 / - 10 - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 86 68 88 69 / - 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 67 88 69 / - 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE/
SCT TO BKN VFR DECK CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER KAUS/KSAT/KSSF/KDRT
TERMINALS. CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH 09-12Z TO MVFR AND IFR
EXCEPT KDRT WHICH SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000FT. SOME -SHRA/-DZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 17Z TO VFR. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN WITH WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TO REDEVELOP WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KDRT/KSAT/KSSF.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND FORECAST DATA
MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL THE OBSERVATION
CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR THIS TAF SITE
UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ONGOING EAST OF I-35. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 64 86 66 88 / 20 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 61 85 64 87 / 20 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 64 87 66 88 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 84 65 86 / 20 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 69 89 70 91 / 30 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 84 65 87 / 20 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 87 66 89 / 30 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 85 65 87 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 63 85 67 87 / 40 - 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 66 86 68 88 / 30 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 86 67 88 / 30 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
119 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL RUNS.
CORFIDI VECTORS AND BEST THETA-E AXIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH ANY POSSIBILITY FOR FOLD-OVER
SHOWERS BACK INTO SE WV COUNTIES NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...OR LATER.
ALSO A SLIGHT HINT IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS OF EASING
DEGREE OF CURRENT SUBSIDENCE AND RETURN OF SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE A MINIMAL THREAT OF SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE IN FORECAST UNTIL DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY BEGINS TO OUR
SOUTH (IF AT ALL) CONSIDERING HOW BULLISH MODELS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY IN GENERATING CONVECTION THAT NOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...MOST OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY IN ALL
AREAS...SO REMOVAL OF THREAT FOR ALL AREAS FOR REST OF THE
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SEEMED WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED TO EXISTING SET OF GRIDS
AT THE PRESENT TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK/LOWER FORECAST CLOUD
COVER. HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS STILL VERIFYING
REMARKABLY WELL AND DO NOT REQUIRE MODIFICATION.
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TONIGHT IN LOCATION THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME PROLONGED CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...NOT MUCH
OTHER LIFT OR SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OR EXPANDED
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY WILL
MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BY DAWN MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADD INSTABILITY TO THE LOW
LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRULY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE HIGH WEDGES AGAINST
THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK...MAINTAINING AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...DO NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SINKING VERY FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUCH...
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
OUR AREA...WILL BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SO BELIEVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WILL
HAVE WATCH FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE MENTION. OTHERWISE MAIN
CONCERN WITH FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CLOUDS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK AS FORECAST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY DEEPENS PER LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE SO ONLY
OPTING TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND KDAN TOWARD DAWN
AND MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
NOW. EXPECT FOG COVERAGE TO BE A BIT LESS THIS MORNING AFTER GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOLING...DO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
THAT MAY AGAIN GET ADVECTED INTO A FEW OF THE TAF SITES INCLUDING
KLWB/KBCB. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF INTRUSION
OF VISIBILITY INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THESE
LOCATIONS WHILE LEAVING IN A BRIEF MENTION AT KLYH/KDAN BUT NOT AT
KROA OR KBLF THIS MORNING PER LACK OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY MORNING...FOG EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE BY
13-14Z/09-10AM SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/NOON-2PM...WITH GREATEST
THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A PREVAILING PERIOD OF CONVECTION AT KBLF/KLWB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED VCTS AT KBCB AND KROA...BUT NOT FURTHER
EAST AT KLYH OR KDAN.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE THREAT
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT
PERIODS OF SUB- VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS BY DAY...AND IN PATCHY FOG EARLY MORNING
FOG. MODELS TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING
MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS
LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WERT
NEAR TERM...AMS/WERT
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1120 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances late Sunday are expected to be more confined
to a small portion of southeast Washington and north central
Idaho. Meanwhile most locations will see very warm temperatures
with highs in the 80s. Thunderstorm chances will increase
markedly Monday and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves
in from the south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong.
Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the remainder of
the work week with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update this morning is to add some light showers or sprinkles to
portions of the Cascades and into the Waterville Plateau and
Okanogan Highlands. A nice cluster of mid level clouds sandwiched
between 2 cirrus shields will keep moving north through the early
afternoon. Should not get much out of this cluster of light
showers.
Focus for later this afternoon will turn south toward
northeast Oregon where convection will begin to fire off after 2pm
and drift northeast into southeast WA and the central ID
Panhandle. The last few runs of the HRRR have been consistent in
showing a stronger area of thunderstorms moving into SE WA around
8pm and tracking northeast through Pullman and Lewiston around
10pm. It doesn`t look to leave our forecast area till after
midnight. Very strong winds and heavy rain will be the main
concern, but hail is also possible. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: There is an increase in mid level moisture with cirrus
clouds over the region through the evening. There is expected to
be enough sun breaks across northeast OR for thunderstorms to
develop aft 21Z. Storm motion will be to the northeast and
confidenece is increasing that it will pass through KLWS and
KPUW. There is the possibility that some of these storms will
become strong or severe and result in gusty outflow winds, heavy
rainfall and hail btwn 03-06Z. The atmosphere will remain unstable
through the night (at least south of I-90). Thunderstorms will
weaken aft 06Z, but will remain in the vicinity of KPUW and KLWS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 81 60 77 53 70 49 / 0 10 70 70 50 30
Coeur d`Alene 81 58 78 53 68 49 / 0 10 70 70 60 60
Pullman 79 56 74 49 66 45 / 10 20 70 60 60 40
Lewiston 88 63 82 56 73 53 / 20 30 80 70 60 50
Colville 84 57 81 54 73 50 / 0 10 70 80 80 60
Sandpoint 80 54 77 52 68 48 / 10 10 70 80 70 70
Kellogg 79 56 75 49 66 45 / 10 10 80 80 80 70
Moses Lake 87 62 83 55 75 51 / 0 0 60 50 40 20
Wenatchee 86 63 80 57 74 55 / 0 10 60 70 50 20
Omak 85 56 81 53 74 51 / 0 0 70 80 80 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
932 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS MOST WILL LIKELY BE
GONE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH RAIN FALLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WE MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM LATE
TONIGHT FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON CUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SHEAR
AND MINIMAL CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LEADING TO PULSE TYPE
STORMS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CAPE VALUES WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE
NAM OR GFS WERE INDICATED ON THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. WHILE A RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY WEEK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LONG LIVED SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY MAKING FOR LESSER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE GENERATING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE CORRECT GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
ADD TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVES COULD EASILY
POP OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER BUT CAPE
VALUES WILL BE LOWER TUESDAY...THUS AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS DEVELOP.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THEREFORE SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIKELY SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAM SHOWS A COLD FRONT DIVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO COLD
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON THE FRONT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...CAPPING OFF THE LOW LEVELS AND
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND A RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT MUCH CHANGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. ANY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GRANTED...IT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN MAY...BUT THAT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT
EVEN THEN...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN ADDITION TO DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW LI/S. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA TO
GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 EACH DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AND WILL IMPACT THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING...BUT THOUGHTS ARE THAT A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DECREASE WITH SUNSET. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT DO RECEIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN
TAFS AT KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN
MORE WITH THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS
TIMEFRAME BY THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEK. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE INCREASES IN RIVER LEVELS WITH VERY SHORT
NOTICE A GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH RIVER
LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE VERY RAPID
SNOW MELT AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SLOW
MOVING OR STATIONARY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
509 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON CUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SHEAR
AND MINIMAL CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LEADING TO PULSE TYPE
STORMS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CAPE VALUES WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE
NAM OR GFS WERE INDICATED ON THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. WHILE A RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY WEEK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LONG LIVED SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY MAKING FOR LESSER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE GENERATING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE CORRECT GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
ADD TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVES COULD EASILY
POP OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER BUT CAPE
VALUES WILL BE LOWER TUESDAY...THUS AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS DEVELOP.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THEREFORE SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIKELY SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAM SHOWS A COLD FRONT DIVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO COLD
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON THE FRONT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...CAPPING OFF THE LOW LEVELS AND
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND A RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT MUCH CHANGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. ANY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GRANTED...IT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN MAY...BUT THAT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT
EVEN THEN...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN ADDITION TO DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW LI/S. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA TO
GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 EACH DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AND WILL IMPACT THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING...BUT THOUGHTS ARE THAT A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DECREASE WITH SUNSET. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT DO RECEIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN
TAFS AT KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN
MORE WITH THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS
TIMEFRAME BY THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEK. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE INCREASES IN RIVER LEVELS WITH VERY SHORT
NOTICE A GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH RIVER
LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE VERY RAPID
SNOW MELT AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SLOW
MOVING OR STATIONARY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF FA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS UPSTREAM RAINFALL MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS COUNTY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY IS
CURRENTLY EXHIBITING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...THIS
TOO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FGEN ALOFT FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO MINOR UPDATE THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT/MDT RAIN. EXPECTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER
INTO THE LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE AT ALL THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BTWN
08Z-12Z WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED AT MOST OF THE SITES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. THE EXCEPTION WAS KPSF WHERE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WERE USED
AFTER 08Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IFR/LOW MVFR LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE PCPN DWINDLING.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR
LEVELS...AND EVENTUALLY TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION FROM THE N TO NE AT 3-6 KTS OR BE
CALM EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE N TO NW AT 4-8
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1219 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF FA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS UPSTREAM RAINFALL MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS COUNTY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY IS
CURRENTLY EXHIBITING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...THIS
TOO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FGEN ALOFT FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO MINOR UPDATE THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLE LIFR/ EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.
MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO CALM WINDS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
A KPSF WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...AS THE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTING OF TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER OUR REGION WITHIN A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME HEALTHY
KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR JUNE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TO SOUTH FLORIDA/FL STRAITS. REGIONAL RADARS
ARE QUIET OVER THE LAND MASS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
BEGINNING TO SEE ACTIVITY EXPAND/MIGRATE INTO THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS STILL WELL OFFSHORE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A "WASHOUT" WOULD NOT BE A GOOD DESCRIPTION OF TODAY FROM A
FORECAST STANDPOINT...HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR JUNE.
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXPANDING
OVER OUR HEADS THROUGH THE DAY...AND CONTRIBUTING TO A DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SWATH OF DECENT DEEP LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WE DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...WITH MOST OF OUR RAINFALL RESULTING FROM MORE
MESOSCALE SEA-BREEZE/HEATING PROCESSES. THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY
SYNOPTIC HELP IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSOLATION. JUST HOW THE SHOWERS WILL
EVOLVE SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY TODAY IS OF LOWER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE...BUT FEEL HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE A GOOD BET FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THEN WOULD EXPECT MOST
SPOTS TO BE DODGING SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AND HOLD ALL AREAS IN THE 80S TODAY.
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE OUT OF THE LOWER/MID 80S.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER JET ENERGY PIVOTING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF THE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AND DIURNAL SUPPORT SHOULD ACT TO QUIET THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN AS WE SHIFT TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE INTERACTION OF
THE SEA-BREEZE AND SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
INCREASINGLY FAVORING THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE FOR BEST
CONVERGENCE TOMORROW. AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE EAST/SE 1000-700MB FLOW...WHICH IS ONE OF OUR
MORE ACTIVE SEA- BREEZE REGIMES. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REALLY DRY
OUT THE COLUMN ABOVE 500MB FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE
BALANCING FACTOR TO KEEP THE CONVECTION DOWN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDER...AND WILL AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO DETERMINE DEGREE TO WHICH IT
WILL HINDER CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ABSORBS THE
CUTOFF LOW...FORMING AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWN THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
FLORIDA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WEAK EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH A LATE AFTERNOON COLLISION
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFTER DARK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH KLAL HAS SEEN PERIODS OF LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT
THESE CIG RESTRICTIONS TO LIFT AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING AND
FORWARD...WITH ANY BRIEF DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO FORM DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT SHOULD STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER COVERAGE EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG IMPACT...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 72 88 74 / 70 50 40 30
FMY 86 71 89 72 / 70 50 40 30
GIF 87 70 89 72 / 70 50 50 30
SRQ 84 72 86 72 / 70 50 40 30
BKV 87 67 88 68 / 70 50 40 30
SPG 85 73 87 75 / 70 50 40 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OUTFLOW DRIVEN
SE CENTRAL GA AND PORTIONS OF NW GA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE
NORTHERN PORTION WAS DELAYED IN DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND SO HAS NOT BEEN AS WORKED OVER. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING SOME 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE STILL LINGERING AND HRRR
HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT PUSHING EASTWARD NEAR THE METRO
AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THINKING IT
WILL NOT QUITE HOLD TOGETHER WITH LOSING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
FRONT NOT STRONG ENOUGH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS ATLANTA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN TWEAKING POP
TRENDS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO PRECIP/INSOLATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
ALREADY. AS SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3 MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE AS WELL.
BIGGEST THREATS REMAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL TO AROUND
SEVERE LIMITS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1.3-1.6
RANGE...ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT NOT EXTREME...WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL ARE ALSO SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW/TROUGH
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DISPLACE
THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MARKED DIURNAL BIAS.
20
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THEREFORE... STILL EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /39
PREVIOUS LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
TERM SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS FILL THE UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE BUT
KEEPS THE H5 TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL GET A SLIGHT PUSH EASTWARD AS A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA EACH DAY IN THE
LONG TERM. NO BIG CHANGE OF AIR MASS AND THEREFORE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE IN DAY TO DAY CHANGES OF MAX TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR BUT CONTINUED CONCERN FOR IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL WATCH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST LATER TODAY WITH AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING WSW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 81 64 83 64 / 60 50 50 50
ATLANTA 82 65 82 65 / 50 40 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 75 60 76 58 / 60 50 50 40
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 82 62 / 50 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 86 67 86 67 / 50 40 50 40
GAINESVILLE 81 64 80 63 / 60 50 50 40
MACON 83 66 86 65 / 60 50 50 50
ROME 82 62 82 62 / 50 40 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 83 63 83 64 / 50 40 50 40
VIDALIA 85 68 85 68 / 70 60 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO
AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SFC OBS SHOWING SPORADIC VSBY DROPS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS
GROUND FOG WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR THROUGH SUNRISE BUT
RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG (DENSE FOG) LOOKS VERY LOW.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN
SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
AROUND 50 AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS OF PERIOD OF BLOCKED MID TROP FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
MIDWEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS GULF OF AK ENERGY BECOMES
CUTOFF ACRS NRN CA LATE WED. HGTS BUILD ACRS CNTL CONUS INTO WRN
GRTLKS WHILE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED OUT AS IT LIFTS NEWD FM INTMTN REGION THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND
WRN GRTLKS BY WED NIGHT. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENTLY HAVE ESCHEWED DRY
FORECAST WITH SALIENT CUTS AGAINST LOW CHCS AFFORDED BY BLENDED POPS
UNTIL FRI. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO CWA /THETA-E
PLUME HELD WELL WEST OF CWA/ ALONG WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH CWA TWIXT PLAINS FOCUS AND SLOW EASTWARD SHIFTING
CUTOFF THROUGH TN VLY INTO CAROLINAS...AFFORDING QUITE WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/COL. MORE SUCCINCT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT THROUGH PERIPHERY
OF PLAINS RIDGE DY4/5 TIMEFRAME WITH AT LEAST DIFFUSE SFC BNDRY TO
APPROACH WRN GRTLKS THEN LYING OUT IN E/W FASHION THROUGH SRN
GRTLKS...SETTLING INTO OHIO VLY SAT. TARGET BEST CHCS FOR TSRA
FRI/FRI NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD END OF
FCST PD CONCEDING BLENDED POPS...WITH ADDNL EFFECTS/TSRA CHCS
ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES EMANATING FM PROLIFIC
UPSTREAM/GULF OF AK VORTEX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FOG LOOP SHOWING AREA OF STRATUS TRYING TO WORK WESTWARD THROUGH
NW OHIO WITH RUC TRYING TO MOVE THIS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF NE
INDIANA INCLUDING KFWA. KAOH BRIEFLY REPORTED 5SM IN FOG BUT THIS
HAS SINCE ENDED. WILL BE LEAVING TEMPO GROUP AT KFWA SINCE IT
LIKELY WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY OF TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WILL MONITOR WESTWARD TREND OF STRATUS FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. AT KSBN...NO WORRIES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CIRRUS TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FEW VFR CU MAY POPS LATE AM INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 457 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF BROAD MID LVL
TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW SUBSIDENT/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE TO SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE LOWER/EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CUT OFF UPPER
PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IN DEFORMATION AXIS GRADUALLY SINKING
SE OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR FULL
DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES DOES BRING PATCHY FOG INTO QUESTION GIVEN
MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO FILL BACK INTO OUR SE ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...BULK OF GUIDANCE/SREF PROBABILITIES NOT ALL
THAT EXCITED ABOUT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL WITH AIRMASS ADVECTING IN
RATHER DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY FOG IN THE FCST FOR NOW
GIVEN THESE TRENDS. AMPLE SUNSHINE (ALTHOUGH EXPECT AT LEAST A
SCATTERED CU FIELD TO POP) AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION TOMORROW
SHOULD AFFORD A DECENT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOW
70S...STILL 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. DRY WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS OTHERWISE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PICTURE IN TERMS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ON EVOLUTION OF CUT
OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
EVENING AS ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION
TO WORK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE A BETTER AFTERNOON CU FIELD...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY FOR GIVEN VERY WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY. NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY POP UP DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST IF A
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF PV
ANOMALY TO THE SOUTH VERIFIES. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. OVERALL TREND
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES HAS BEEN TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE CUT OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MID ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD...BRINGING
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE CORN BELT AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE PHASING DISCREPANCIES WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING MID ATLANTIC PV ANOMALY. AT THIS
POINT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
PRECIP POTENTIAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH FRIDAY WAVE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HANGING UP ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE MAY DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH DAY 7. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH MODERATION ONCE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FOG LOOP SHOWING AREA OF STRATUS TRYING TO WORK WESTWARD THROUGH
NW OHIO WITH RUC TRYING TO MOVE THIS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF NE
INDIANA INCLUDING KFWA. KAOH BRIEFLY REPORTED 5SM IN FOG BUT THIS
HAS SINCE ENDED. WILL BE LEAVING TEMPO GROUP AT KFWA SINCE IT
LIKELY WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG VCNTY OF TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE WILL MONITOR WESTWARD TREND OF STRATUS FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. AT KSBN...NO WORRIES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CIRRUS TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FEW VFR CU MAY POPS LATE AM INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING NEBRASKA AND MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF +10C TO +13C 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND IN AN AREA WHERE AN INSTABILITY AXIS WAS LOCATED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER BASED
ON THE RAP. ALL THE NEAR TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THESE
STORMS BASED ON 07Z VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, LOCATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AND THE RAPS FORECAST OF THE WARMING AT 700MB
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GUIDE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 700S MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 14C. DESPITE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW ENOUGH SO THAT AM LEANING TOWARD NOT MENTIONING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING
DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MCS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RIDING THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA ALMOST EVERY NIGHT WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
CHANCES COME INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL
BE WARM AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTO SUNDAY, THEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 90 67 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 64 90 65 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 91 60 93 63 / 10 10 0 10
LBL 89 62 94 66 / 10 10 0 10
HYS 85 66 87 67 / 10 10 20 40
P28 85 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING NEBRASKA AND MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF +10C TO +13C 700MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND IN AN AREA WHERE AN INSTABILITY AXIS WAS LOCATED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER BASED
ON THE RAP. ALL THE NEAR TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THESE
STORMS BASED ON 07Z VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, LOCATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AND THE RAPS FORECAST OF THE WARMING AT 700MB
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GUIDE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE 700S MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 14C. DESPITE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW ENOUGH SO THAT AM LEANING TOWARD NOT MENTIONING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING
DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 64 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 91 60 91 64 / 10 10 0 10
LBL 89 62 92 67 / 10 10 0 10
HYS 85 66 86 68 / 20 10 10 40
P28 85 67 88 70 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEW MEXICO TO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED OVER COLORADO AND WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +10C TO +13C TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND DENVER. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +18C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH
PLATTE, +23 AT AMARILLO, AND +24C AT RAPID CITY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH, AN AXIS OF H5 VORT MAXIMA ARE
PROJECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK, AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS PROVIDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
BY THE COLORADO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
CONVERGENCE. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS A RESULT OF
DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
A WARMING TREND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
A BIT. AS A RESULT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S(C)
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL
UP INTO THE 80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90F OR ABOVE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 65 88 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 60 91 64 87 / 10 0 10 10
LBL 64 92 67 90 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 68 86 68 84 / 10 10 40 30
P28 68 88 70 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
139 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OD A FEW AREAS OF FOG...MOST OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE LOW CIGS WITH A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
PRECIP IS ALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES...BUT THE
POP FOR TONIGHT WAS ABLE TO BE LOWERED FURTHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DEW POINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH
ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA HAS
STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING STORMS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. FOLLOWING
THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND
THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY
YIELDS 400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER
600J/KG USING 78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T
REALLY GET PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL
TREND. WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP FIELD MIN
CIGS AT NEARLY ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THIS...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE UPPER MI...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKES AND LOW
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005>007-009>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Low cloud field that has dominated our area the past 36 hours or
so is starting to clear out upstream from our region in eastern
IL. RAP cloud level flow at 1km AGL shows predominantly E-NE flow
slowly veering SE thru 18z/Tue with about a mean speed of
10-15mph. Redrew the cloud forecast along these lines, with
partial clearing occurring for much of STL Metro from late evening
on, the UIN area being on the edge of the clouds much of the
night, and COU/JEF areas likely remaining cloudy all night long,
along with much of southeast MO. Adjusted temps downward a bit
more where some clearing is now expected to occur.
Heading into Tuesday, this trend will likely continue and probably
be further complicated by a diurnal factor that will fill in a bit
during the day and recede towards sunset. It still remains to be
seen whether or not parts of southeast MO and central MO ever
clear out before Tuesday night.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Main issue in the short term is pesky stratus which has blanketed the
region the last few days and has been responsible for well below
average temperatures. The guidance is only showing minor changes
over the next 24 hours that would influence the evolution/erosion.
The upper trof axis has now pushed east of the CWA with the upper
low now in western TN and it will continue moving slowly east.
More important is the expansive and dominate surface/low level
ridge, and it will continue to have a significant influence with only
very slight veering of the lower tropospheric winds. Satellite today
shows a bit more cumuliform appearance to the cloud tops but it remains
quite thick outside of the diurnally driven stratocu on the periphery.
I have been pessimistic and held onto more clouds tonight and into
Tuesday than some of the low level RH fields might suggest. Accordingly
I lowered high temps on Tuesday a bit from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
With each successive model cycle there are new small changes with
the mass and moisture fields during the later part of the week
and into the weekend that suggest greater thunderstorm chances and
lesser heat magnitude. In general the upper ridge now centered in
the Rockies appears to never build into the MS Valley and instead
stays centered through the Plains. From Wednesday night into the
later part of the week a series of weak shortwaves are forecast to
top the ridge crest and traverse parts of the region in the NW
flow aloft. The models differ on timing and placement of these as
well as the moisture return and specifics of the WAA regime on the
backside of the retreating low level anticyclone, with the NAM the
most agressive and fastest. Then as we head into the weekend and
early next week, the northern stream will be more active with
greater digging of shortwaves out of south central Canada and
development of a deepening broad long wave trof over the eastern
U.S. centered in the Great Lakes region. Several fropas will occur
as a result with a wavy frontal boundary impacting the area
Friday-Saturday and another on Monday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Dry air advecting in from IL should lead to at least partial
clearing in the St Louis metro area and possibly also COU as has
just occurred in UIN this evening, with resulting VFR conditions
for most of the night. Mainly just scattered low level clouds is
expected on Tuesday as the low level moisture becomes more shallow
or thinner. The surface wind will be light late tonight, then
mainly e-sely on Tuesday as the surface ridge extending from the
Great Lakes region southwest into MO shifts slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling of around 3000-4000 feet
will likely scatter out late tonight, then eventually totally
clear out Tuesday night. A light surface wind late tonight will
become ely Tuesday afternoon, albeit still quite weak.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
417 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
ROLLED EASTWARD AND REACHED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
UNIMPRESSED WITH LATEST RUNS OF MODELS WHICH ARE NOT HANDLING THE
PRE DAWN STORMS WELL AT ALL AND MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO HAD A
HANDLE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOT SHOWING IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF WINDING
DOWN...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DECREASE TO THE EAST AND THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH TIME.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING ACR0SS THE PLAINS
BREAKING DOWN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN THE ROCKIES AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN SFC
DEEPENING IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH AND WEST THRU WESTERN NEB AND EASTERN COLORADO. IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW TO THE WEST...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AROUND H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 30KTS AND HAVE RAMPED UP WIND
SPEEDS FOR TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH WITH
DPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S. WARMER TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE
80S ARE ALSO FORECAST AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO INITIATE
IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH STORMS
REACHING OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHCS
FOR STORMS FAVORS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM. STARTING OUT WITH THE BIG PICTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...OR FIRE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT DISCOUNT EITHER OF
THESE SO WILL NEED TO KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING DURING THE DAYTIME. THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO HOWEVER SEEMS TO FIT MORE WITH THE LATEST EC
SOLUTION WHICH HAS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THEN AN MCS WORKING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP. PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SPC SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. CONCERNS INCLUDE ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION/
CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD DAMPER INSTABILITY. ALSO HAVE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WHICH MAY LOWER THE CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH. FINAL CONCERN
IS WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP...JUST WHERE THE BEST SPEED CONVERGENCE OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. THE EC SHOWS IT MORE TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE LINE WHILE
THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE WEEK GOING FOR THE WED NIGHT TIME FRAME.
PRECIP MAY LINGER AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TO TIME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES COMING ACROSS. MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER
MCS COMING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GFS HAS BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUS A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF OUR CWA BUT OTHER MODELS NOT NECESSARILY
SHOWING THIS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW
CHANGES JUST A BIT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER US A LITTLE. BUT I DONT EXPECT THE RIDGE AND
MID LEVEL WARMING TO BUILD IN STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH. THUS WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH POPS IN THE EAST DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
KEEPING THE POSSIBLE MCS TRACK JUST A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME KIND OF
POPS GOING MOST OF THE TIME. DOUBT IT WILL RAIN EVERY DAYS...BUT
TOUGH TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN MID LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WHILE THE WEST COAST LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT CANNOT BUILD/AMPLIFY DUE TO THE NORTHERN JET STAYING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING MID LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CONVECTION IS WORKING EAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EAST...JUST CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR STORMS IN WAA PATTERN AND
A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. OTHERWISE CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TOWARD
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
WHETHER CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS IFR WITH HRRR SUGGESTING BOTH
SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TO
INCREASE RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY HOLDING UP IN THE WESTERN PART OF
NEBRASKA...MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. UNWILLING TO COMPLETELY TAKE OUT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS COULD
HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING TONIGHT AS THE AXIS MOVES EAST. UPDATED
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY TO INCREASE SKY COVER
A BIT AS WELL AS DELAY THE ONSET OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER.
SREF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS INDICATE PRETTY MUCH NO CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...AND EXTREMELY LOW SHOT AT THUNDER AS
WELL. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONRAW
TENDS TO PICK UP ON SOUTH WIND GUSTS A BIT BETTER THAN
MOST...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL JET INVOLVED. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM WOULD HAVE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY SO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE TIME.
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE A BIT WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START OFF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER WRN MEXICO N/NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH/JUST EAST OF THE CWA. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO /EXTENDING INTO SD/ WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST IN
A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SPARKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING POPS
DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THAT ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
AIDED SOME WITH TIME BY AN INCREASING BUT BROAD LLJ EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL
RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE/WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. MODEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS IS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...BUT SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PLAYS
OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...LEAVING A LEAST SOME LULL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME
QUESTION WITH HOW MUCH OF ONE...AS SOME MODELS LINGERING AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MAIN SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE CWA.
AGAIN...SOME QUESTIONS WITH EXACTLY WHERE THAT FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
END UP. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME AROUND/AFTER 00Z...WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THAT SFC FRONT. FURTHER INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. AGAIN
EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
LOOKING TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN SRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING BEST CHANCES NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE
LINE. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY/DETAILS TO WORK OUT.
FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UNFORTUNATELY OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW...WITH A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST INTO TX BY FRIDAY...PUSHED
BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...BY
FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP NEAR/JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE IN THAT AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL BE
SITTING ON THE EDGE OF THAT RIDGING/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MAY END UP SLIDING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TRYING
TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL WAVES...AND RIGHT
NOW JUST CAN COMPLETELY RULE ANY PERIOD FREE OF POPS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWINGS IN HIGHS
EITHER COOL OR HOT...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPING THINGS NEAR
NORMAL...MOST DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
CONVECTION IS WORKING EAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EAST...JUST CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR STORMS IN WAA PATTERN AND
A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. OTHERWISE CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TOWARD
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
WHETHER CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS IFR WITH HRRR SUGGESTING BOTH
SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TO
INCREASE RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOWLY BUT SURELY THE LL MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH TODAY
ALLOWING A GRADUAL IMPRMT IN THE CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA TNGT AS THE MOSITURE MAY
STALL...OR EVEN RETURN AS WE LOSE MIXING. SO...A GENERAL IMPRMT TO
MVFR IS XPCTD AFT SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING LATE IN THE
DAY...ESP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/RME. WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE PD.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL UTILIZE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH CAM GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. ACTUAL TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE FEATURES...AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. INDIVIDUAL CAMS
AND CAM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT SAID...A GENERAL IDEA DOES EMERGE FROM ALL OF
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE ND WILL EACH SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION TODAY...DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND...SETTING
UP A SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION (WHICH WILL BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL). ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND HEATING
UNCERTAIN...MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING...THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL (SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS) WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SVR POTENTIAL HINGES ON TIMING OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT AND WHEREVER THIS LIKELY TRIGGER IS BY MID-AFTERNOON. CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
(USING UPDRAFT HELICITY). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS INTENSE STORMS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
STILL QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF CONVECTION THRU THE PD
AND CIGS. HRRR CIG FCST SHOWS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE RAIN AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT OVERALL VFR. SOME MODEL MOS STATISTICS
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NR 12Z TUES AND AFTERWARDS.
FOR NOW KEPT IT MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND LATEST HRRR HAS AN OK HANDLE ON IT AND CONTINUES ITS MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD GRAND FORKS AND ECNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AREA BISMARCK TO DICKINSON AND EVIDENCE OF
TSTM AREA DEVELOPING WESTWARD MEETING UP WITH CONVECTION COMING
FROM MONTANA. OVERALL SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE IDEA OF SOME PRECIP
IN ECNTRL ND PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THEN NEW ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST-
NORTHEAST THRU NRN ND TUESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY. SEEMS REASONABLE AND
POPS INHERITED REFLECT THAT TREND WITH HIGHEST POPS NW FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME UPPER JET ENERGY
FEEDING INTO IT. NO REAL SFC BOUNDARY BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING BETWEEN ESTEVAN AND BRANDON IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE ARE MOVING DUE EAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE FA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OUT OVER EASTERN MT WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ATTM THO. DESPITE THIS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WEST/NW FA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETTING THE STAGE...THIS
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT BREAK IT OUT
ANYWHERE TUE AND HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN GUIDANCE HIGHS AS A
RESULT. FROM 12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NORTHWEST SD MOVING TO MOBRIDGE SD...NOT A FAST MOVER BY ANY
MEANS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS KEEP DECENT
850MB FLOW OVER EASTERN SD UP INTO NW MN IMPINGING ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF HEAVIER
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER JET HOLDS BACK CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW. EXPECT BETTER HEATING AND CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC LOW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THINK TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BACK NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND IF IT EXPANDS INTO THIS FA WILL
BE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THESE INITIAL TSTMS
SPREAD EAST-NE. SPC HAS REMOVED THE ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
POSSIBLY DUE TO NOT ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. EITHER WAY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS WEST OF A LINE FROM
KBWP-KFAR-KGFK-KDVL. THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON WED. THEN A
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN AND WI. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...BUT
MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BLENDED
SOLUTION GIVES TOM LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN SOME LOWER ONES FOR MONDAY AS THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW TEENS C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
STILL QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF CONVECTION THRU THE PD
AND CIGS. HRRR CIG FCST SHOWS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE RAIN AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT OVERALL VFR. SOME MODEL MOS STATISTICS
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NR 12Z TUES AND AFTERWARDS.
FOR NOW KEPT IT MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
237 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. A
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. A
DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS NORTH OF GOODLAND KS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON
PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE AND
ADJUST THE POPS AS NEEDED.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SO EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURS AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...GIVING OUR AREA TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE WET MAY.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 68 85 70 / 20 10 10 10
FSM 82 65 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 67 84 69 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 82 66 85 68 / 20 10 10 10
FYV 77 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 77 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 82 65 84 67 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 80 65 86 67 / 20 10 10 10
F10 82 66 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 83 65 85 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN
WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING
AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD
LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
545 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE .THEN
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE IN THE QUASI-STNRYPATTERN
WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AIRSPACE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CIGS LKLY LOWERING
AGAIN TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD
LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 68 90 69 90 / 20 5 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 68 93 69 93 / 20 5 0 0 0
Junction 89 68 91 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS MOST WILL LIKELY BE
GONE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH RAIN FALLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WE MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM LATE
TONIGHT FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON CUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SHEAR
AND MINIMAL CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LEADING TO PULSE TYPE
STORMS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CAPE VALUES WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE
NAM OR GFS WERE INDICATED ON THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. WHILE A RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY WEEK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LONG LIVED SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY MAKING FOR LESSER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE GENERATING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE CORRECT GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
ADD TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVES COULD EASILY
POP OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER BUT CAPE
VALUES WILL BE LOWER TUESDAY...THUS AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS DEVELOP.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THEREFORE SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIKELY SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAM SHOWS A COLD FRONT DIVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO COLD
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON THE FRONT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...CAPPING OFF THE LOW LEVELS AND
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND A RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT MUCH CHANGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. ANY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GRANTED...IT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN MAY...BUT THAT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT
EVEN THEN...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN ADDITION TO DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW LI/S. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA TO
GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 EACH DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
FOG/STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN TAFS AT
KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN MORE WITH
THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS TIMEFRAME BY
THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEK. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
SOME RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE INCREASES IN RIVER LEVELS WITH VERY SHORT
NOTICE A GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH RIVER
LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE VERY RAPID
SNOW MELT AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SLOW
MOVING OR STATIONARY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
...CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE SHUNTING THE WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WAS PRODUCING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUITE FAR SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WAS
PRODUCING A MASSIVE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WAS APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY AND
LIMIT DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION. STILL...COOL TEMPS ALOFT...INCREASED
MOISTURE...WEAK SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BECOMING
ACTIVE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON THEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAUSING
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INLAND AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EVENING.
THE HIGH (70-80) POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING THAT NEEDS UPDATING.
DUE TO LIMITED HEATING AND A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT FROM THAT WHICH
OCCURRED YESTERDAY (LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS). STORMS WILL STILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG TO LOCAL
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MICROBURSTS. OF COURSE...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH
LOOK TO BE JUST INLAND AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING STRATUS WAS INDICATIVE OF THE OVERALL
MOISTENING PROCESS IN PLACE. EXPECT THAT STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF IFR IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION 18-19Z ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THEN
CELLS PROPAGATING TO THE INTERIOR TERMINALS 20-24Z...WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND
FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH MORNING. THE STORMS THAT FIRE OVER OVER THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BUT SOME COULD PROVIDE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS TO THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
936 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH ADAMS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE WERE BEING FORCED BY
ONE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO.
ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING WITH A SPIN ON WATERVAPOR/IR OVER OREGON
THIS MORNING WILL CROSS MAINLY NE OREGON TO WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
TODAY. TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IDAHO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 500 J/LG CAPE AND -4 LI. WET BULB TEMPS ARE RATHER
LOW...6600 FT...SO COULD SEE SMALL HAIL. DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 700
J/KG AND HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME MAX WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. STORMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...SW TO NE 25-30 MPH. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER
ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST. SOME LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER SHEAR ALIGNS WITH WARMER
TEMPS AND GREATER BOUYANCY. MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CHANCE OF
STORMS WED. AFTERNOON ACROSS IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KLKV-KBOI-FAIRFIELD LINE. THIS
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE
FIRST IS MOVING THROUGH SE OREGON AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER
COMING ON THE COAST. THE SECOND WILL ACT TO AID CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO BOISE TO
STANLEY. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YDAY AND THEREFORE
BOTH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY IN SE OWYHEE COUNTY AND IN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YDAY...AND THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BRING READINGS UP 3-5
DEGREES ON WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA SOME OF WHICH IS SHOWN TO BE ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST
PERIOD AND THUS HAVE ABOVE CLIMO POPS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN TO EASTERN TX THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
MUCH OF ILLINOIS, BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NEAR AND SOUTH OF
MATTOON THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFTING UPPER
LOW TO THE SE. WITH THAT CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING TOO WARM TODAY. HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AS A RESULT, WITH MENTION OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
DROPPING THE HIGH BY A DEGREE OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FROM SW MICHIGAN SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ALONG A LINE INCLUDING CHAMPAIGN TO
DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-70. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY. THOSE TWO THINGS SHOULD WORK TO REDUCE OUR CLOUD
COVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CU RULE OUTPUT INDICATES ONLY MINOR
CU FORMATION DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WE WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE GRIDS. SINCE 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT
APPRECIABLY WARM TODAY OVER YESTERDAY...THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
TODAY OVER YESTERDAY ALONE SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH CAROLINA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THURSDAY...MAINLY I-57 WESTWARD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LINKS UP WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING PAST THE ILLINOIS RIVER DURING THE DAY...
AND THE GFS ACTUALLY KEEPS US PRETTY MUCH DRY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TO AN EXTENT...
BRING AN MCS THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POP`S I-55
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HEALTHY 40-50% POP`S EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY.
TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
STRONGER WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STARTS TO COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BY SUNDAY. HAVE LARGELY KEPT JUST 20% POP`S
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT INCLUDED HEALTHY CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS BOTH MODELS FEATURE SOME SORT OF MCS POTENTIAL NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST AS SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THAT DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LINGERING BAND OF LOW VFR
CLOUDS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF SITES OF PIA, BMI, AND SPI FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. TURBULENT MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SCOUR THEM OUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF I-70 THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD NOT REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS DEC. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY,
PULLING THOSE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST IL BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE RAP AND NAM SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE IN
THE CLOUD LAYER, SO GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CU
RULES SHOW ONLY MINOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING PEAK
HEATING, SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT.
WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST, THEN BECOME EAST BY 15-16Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 7-10KT. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FROM SW MICHIGAN SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ALONG A LINE INCLUDING CHAMPAIGN TO
DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-70. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY. THOSE TWO THINGS SHOULD WORK TO REDUCE OUR CLOUD
COVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CU RULE OUTPUT INDICATES ONLY MINOR
CU FORMATION DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WE WILL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE GRIDS. SINCE 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT
APPRECIABLY WARM TODAY OVER YESTERDAY...THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
TODAY OVER YESTERDAY ALONE SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH CAROLINA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST NAM MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THURSDAY...MAINLY I-57 WESTWARD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LINKS UP WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING PAST THE ILLINOIS RIVER DURING THE DAY...
AND THE GFS ACTUALLY KEEPS US PRETTY MUCH DRY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TO AN EXTENT...
BRING AN MCS THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POP`S I-55
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HEALTHY 40-50% POP`S EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY.
TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
STRONGER WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STARTS TO COME BACK INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BY SUNDAY. HAVE LARGELY KEPT JUST 20% POP`S
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT INCLUDED HEALTHY CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS BOTH MODELS FEATURE SOME SORT OF MCS POTENTIAL NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST AS SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THAT DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP A LINGERING BAND OF LOW VFR
CLOUDS NEAR OUR WESTERN TAF SITES OF PIA, BMI, AND SPI FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. TURBULENT MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SCOUR THEM OUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF I-70 THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD NOT REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS DEC. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY,
PULLING THOSE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST IL BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE RAP AND NAM SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE IN
THE CLOUD LAYER, SO GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CU
RULES SHOW ONLY MINOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING PEAK
HEATING, SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT.
WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST, THEN BECOME EAST BY 15-16Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 7-10KT. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WINDS FUNNEL IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGINGS WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE ALREADY
AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ALONG
THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS AND WITH WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELDS ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE TRAVERSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AT LEAST FEATURING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME INTERESTING WIND FEATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE RIDGETOPS...WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES BELOW THE RIDGETOPS AND A
STABLE LAYER NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. THIS SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN FOR THEM TO BE OF MUCH
CONCERN...HOWEVER EASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE
IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN EVOLVES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. THIS SLOWLY TURNS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT TO RUN
INTO THE AREA...INCREASING LAPSE RATES BY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INDICATE A WARMING TREND AS
STRATUS FINALLY GIVES WAY TO BETTER MIXING AND MORE INSOLATION AS
THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS DEFINITION. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROPPING OF THE JET AXIS AND
A BETTER CHANCE THE STRONG TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR IS OCCURRING ALMOST EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTH...AND RIDGING ALOFT...WE MAY BE IN A STRATUS DECK FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. WILL OFFER AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WHICH BRINGS MOST
SITES TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING
AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS
DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR
TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS NORTH/WEST OF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO WED MORNING. ATTM HAVE CAPPED WINDS JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT COULD SEE
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT (BAY) AND 25 KT (OCEAN) TONIGHT.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED WED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW...BUT WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER
THRU TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005>007-009>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.UPDATE...MOST AREAS OF THE REGION ARE EXPERIENCING AN ATYPICALLY
PLEASANT EARLY JUNE MORNING...IF YOU CAN DISCOUNT STUBBORN LOWER
CLOUDS HANGING ON OVER PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ERODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POPPING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY UP NEAR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH ARGUE THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY LOW...BUT HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WILL DEFER TO THE PREVIOUS ENTIRELY DRY OUTLOOK FOR TODAY
GIVEN A MULTITUDE OF FACTORS POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPS WERE TWEAKED A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN ZONES BUT ULTIMATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT LOW CLOUDS BUT THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST SET-UP HAVING SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERS SLOWLY FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW ONE INCH OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL GREATLY LIMIT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~ 5 TO 7 DEG F BELOW
TYPICAL EARLY JUNE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS
WELL INTO THE 60S...EVEN UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF LONG
TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PERSISTING ACROSS TX/S PLAINS THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK BETWEEN UPPER
LOWS ALONG EACH COAST OF CONUS. DEEP LYR MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN
RATHER MINIMAL IN DEEP N/NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...RESULTING IN POPS
REMAINING BELOW SLGT CHC THRESHOLD. BY SAT...SOME SUBTLE CHANGES LOOK
TO EVOLVE AS GFS/EC BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MCS FORMATION IN MID MS
VALLEY...AND WITH GENERAL N/NW FLOW CONTINUING SOME POTENTIAL WOULD
EXIST FOR REMNANTS OF SUCH A COMPLEX TO MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. HENCE
FOR NOW HAVE ACCEPTED LOW POPS GENERATED BY MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
MODELS AGREE ON SUN BEING A DRIER DAY AGAIN IN WAKE OF WEAK BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MORE OF A MOISTURE CHANGE THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. IN FACT...MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER SUN
THAN SAT.
A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION SUN/MON
RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OF THIS WEEK...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THIS NEW PATTERN WILL
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. 00Z GFS SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WHILE
EC TRENDS TOWARD A MORE DEAMPLIFIED SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECENS LEAN TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE OP EC. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
ACCEPTED MODEL BLEND OF INCLUDING SOME POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
REGARDLESS OF ULTIMATE PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD EXPECT INCREASED DEEP
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RELATIVELY SEASONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AND MODEL BLEND LOOKS FINE. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 62 85 64 / 5 4 5 4
MERIDIAN 84 60 86 64 / 7 5 8 7
VICKSBURG 83 60 85 65 / 5 3 4 4
HATTIESBURG 87 63 89 66 / 10 5 8 8
NATCHEZ 84 63 85 66 / 6 3 4 3
GREENVILLE 81 61 84 65 / 5 2 4 3
GREENWOOD 80 60 83 63 / 5 3 5 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/28/EC/AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVF CONDS OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS A
SMALL SFC HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR LVLS LTR THIS
MRNG. WEAK SFC GRADIENT WILL CONT THE LGT WINDS THRU THE PD. AFT
SUNSET AND TWRD THE END OF THE PD...STABLE CONDS AND LEFTOVER LL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DVLPG IONCE AGAIN
WITH SOME IFR CONDS PSBL.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAVE COMBINED TO BRING WET
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR DAYS...MANY INDICATIONS POINTING TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE REASONS
FOR THIS. FIRST...WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS POINT TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF 700 MB WHICH STILL SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN FIVE. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER AS
OPPOSED TO SATURATED TO THE SURFACE WHICH WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS. SECOND...PRE EXISTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD...AND THUS WILL PUSH THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...FURTHER EAST. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY VERY CLEAR IN THE OBSERVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST AND UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX WITH
WET DOWNBURSTS BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. RAP FORECAST REALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS BUT SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO CERTAINLY
THINK IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO MID 80S EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN THE EAST WITH NOT MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 1. LOWS IN THE LOW
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE CHANGES LITTLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY LEAD TO
NUISANCE FLOODING OF STREETS/LOW LYING AREAS. SINCE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND LIMITED IN SCOPE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. NEAR SFC NELY FLOW BEHIND THE
SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LOW
LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 03Z-05Z AS ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES USUAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS LOWER 60S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC STILL ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MODERATING
AIRMASS SOME. HOWEVER... WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. THE MID LEVEL LOW ON
THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS)... WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... OVERALL DEEP
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST. THUS... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME... WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING
AIRMASS... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA (AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST ECWMF... WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MORE) SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE
TO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT.
THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR
NORMAL.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AS A PERTURBATION ALOFT
LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. HEATING OF THE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC. THIS
BATCH OF CONVECTION MAY IMPACT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A SFC
COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
AID TO MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN ITS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CHARACTER. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SLIGHTLY DRIER. THIS WILL LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BOTH MORNINGS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER LARGE INVERSION AS H5 LOW
SWINGS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. OBVIOUSLY THE
FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK TODAY. THE
RAP AND HRRR GRADUALLY BEGIN THE BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE H9 MOISTURE THE LONGEST IN THE NW. THE
MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NW. THE 12Z
NAM JUST CAME IN AND IT NOW LINGERS THE H9 MOISTURE ALL DAY. THE
UPDATE WAS PUT OUT BEFORE THE 12Z NAM CAME IN...SO IT WAS BASED ON
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP. WENT
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST...LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR/RAP SOLUTION...WITH A LITTLE BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM. THIS
PRODUCED A MUCH CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...BACKED OFF ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THIS PULLED AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME
ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACRS TN VLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST HAS KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR CATEGORY ACRS ALL BUT KDAY.
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE THRU THE MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS
AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
550 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NW ARKANSAS RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITY AT FYV
THIS MORNING...AT LEAST TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO BUILD BACK INTO NW ARKANSAS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ABOVE VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH FOG AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z ACROSS NW ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT
INCLUSION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. A
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. A
DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS NORTH OF GOODLAND KS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON
PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE AND
ADJUST THE POPS AS NEEDED.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SO EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURS AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...GIVING OUR AREA TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE WET MAY.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED
TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER
CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE SOUTHERN LAURELS UP INTO THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHEASTWARD...UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
THE RAP SHOWS THIS SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL AT BEST. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY STEADY RAIN IN STORE INTO
THE EVENING FOR ABOUT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER AIR
MAY WORK INTO NRN PA AND ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT AT BFD. A
DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.
A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.
FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.
PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NRN PA AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AT BFD. A
DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
602 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy stratus has developed across the Hill Country. Although VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail, brief MVFR are possible early
this morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across West Central Texas today,
but confidence remains low, so any mention of thunder was left
out of the TAF package. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through
this evening, with stratus possible at mainly KSOA, KBBD and KJCT
early Wednesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 68 90 69 90 / 20 5 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 68 93 69 93 / 20 5 0 0 0
Junction 89 68 91 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING WEDGE OF COOL AIR
WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND STORMS GOING INTO
MIDDLE OR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MTNS OF NE TN THIS MORNING...WITH BEST THETA-E RIDGING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NWD
FROM SOUTH OF THE TRIAD IN NC TO THE ERN CWA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
FAVORING A SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT THINK ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THIS TAKES PLACE...SO MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE CWA IS LOW...THOUGH
THE CMC AND HRRR DO SHOW SOME BREAKS RETURNING TO THE MTNS. WITH
LIMITED SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE...CUT
BACK WORDING OF THUNDER TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF FRONT TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD COVER...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER WET ONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
COMPLICATED IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION TODAY AND
WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH PRECIP FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CULPRITS REMAIN
WITH A CUTOFF 5H LOW JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEP PWATS TO GET BANDS OF CONVECTION GOING THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY SHRA FADES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SW LATER AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS OVER A BIT MORE IN BACKDOOR
FASHION UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTED BY BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS OUT WEST...AND
WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EAST WHERE WILL SLOWLY GET
TRAJECTORIES SWITCHING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT UNDER
THE 85H THETA-E GRADIENT LATER ON. BEST INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH WEAK
ALSO PROGGED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO MERGE ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING PER LATEST ENSEMBLES. THUS APPEARS BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH/EAST WITH THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SE-SW BUT GRADUALLY FILLING IN ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE LATE. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPING POPS FROM CHANCE AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL STAY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN A MILD START BUT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND IFFY TIMING OF ONSET OF THE DEVELOPING WEAK WEDGE
LATER TODAY. MOS VALUES HAVE COOLED QUITE A BIT BUT LIKELY ARE TOO
COOL PARTS OF THE WEST/SOUTH WHERE THINK ANY COOL ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIKELY ENOUGH EARLY CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO LIMIT
RISES TO SOME DEGREE. THUS TRENDED WITH THE WARMER MAV WHICH
STILL KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IF CLOUDS LOWER
SOONER.
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET PINNED IN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE VA BLUE
RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE RUNNING IN
FROM THE SE ALONG THE STALLED 85H FRONT AND UNDER THE 5H LOW. THIS
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE GIVEN DEEP SATURATION AND AN
INVERSION ALOFT. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ELEVATED CONVECTION PER
COOLNESS ALOFT AND PROGGED LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 5H LOW. THIS
WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES PENDING THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
SINCE COVERAGE COULD AGAIN BE MORE SCATTERED NATURE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVERALL FFG RATHER HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. OTRW KEEPING PERSISTENT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN A SWATH ROUGHLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
IN VA TONIGHT AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER THIS MORNING SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND TRAVELS EASTWARD TO THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...EXPECT DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN COOL WEDGE. LOW LEVEL
STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE
RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHAPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM IFR/LIFR IN FOG IN SPOTS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED ON
MONDAY...TO MVFR/IFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE FOG...TO VFR IN MID
DECK. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE STARTING
TO LIFT BACK NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING RESULTING IN BANDS OF SHOWERS...AND
LIKELY MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ONCE ANY FOG FADES BY MID
MORNING.
CLOUDINESS INCLUDING MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON PER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPCLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING. FRONT
BOWING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A LINGERING
CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER IFR TYPE
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL SEE NE FLOW KICK IN. THIS MAY
ALSO TEND TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FRONT
PIVOTS SW UNDER THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD
OF MVFR IN CONVECTION AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
MORE SHRA AND ONLY A VCTS MENTION GIVEN LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY.
WEDGE DEEPENS TONIGHT WHILE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SE OVER THE COOL
POOL MAKING FOR A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE COMBO LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND ADDED
SHRA/RA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION
TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AIDED IN PART BY
SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROF THAT WILL EDGE NORTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS SFC TROF MAY
FOCUS SOME TSTRM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECENT
CAPES LURKING VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST PART OF THE CWA IF NOT JUST A
LITTLE INSIDE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS A MINOR UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
A COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDS. EXPECT TO
SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS WEDS AND THIS COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
DAY. CAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT IT MAY BE A RELATIVELY LATE SHOW FOR STORMS WITH THE NEXT
UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING MORE TOWARDS WEDS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MORE LIKELY WITH BETTER SHEAR EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY CONTINUING OVER THE PLAINS WEDS EVENING.
NO BIG CHANGES SEEN FOR THURSDAY WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE RETREATING SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS MAY
HINDER IT SOME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA
BY SUNDAY AND WEAKENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TO START...LOOKING AT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH
SBCAPES PROGGED BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO WYOMING FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH INCREASED
VEERING FLOW PROGGED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. LOOKING
AT A BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AS A
RESULT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD BE MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE ROCKIES. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...AND A FAIR NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING 80F. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
FOG/STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AND AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR WORDING IN TAFS AT
KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN MORE WITH
THE 06Z TAFS AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOULD COVER THIS TIMEFRAME BY
THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
NO CONCERNS SEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH FUELS PRETTY MUCH IN
GREENUP AND WEATHER FACTORS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. WARM TODAY
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FT LARAMIE AND THE LOWER N PLATTE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE ENTIRELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE INCREASING SNOW
MELT OVER THE MTNS WILL RAISE THE UPPER N PLATTE DURING THE WEEK
BUT NOT YET EXPECTED TO ATTAIN FLOOD STAGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ANY EFFECTS FROM RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVIER RAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ONLY CLOUDS ARE A FEW CIRRUS
RACING OVERHEAD AND A FEW Q DOWN IN SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS OF 130
PM. WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 90
ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...
MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE SOME ISOLD TSRA THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE Q WERE DEVELOPING ALREADY
OVER FAR SE LAS ANIMAS AS OF 130. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE OF CO BY EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO OTHER
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE FAR SE PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
PALMER DVD BY SUNRISE.
TOMORROW...
OVERALL...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE NM BORDER BY
LATE MORNING AND LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THIS UPSLOPE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE WITH A 2NDRY FRONT THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN N OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. LIKEWISE...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO
HAPPEN IN OUR CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE SE COLO PLAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD.
SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN ALL THE INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY OVER THE PALMER
DVD AND NWD...MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS N EL PASO...N OTERO AND N KIOWA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY.
IF STORMS DO INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE. FWIW...NAM GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3500 J/KG OVER NE KIOWA
COUNTY AT 00Z TOMORROW.
I NEED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IF THE 2NDRY FRONT DOES SURGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY EARLY THU
MORNING. TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
60 DEGF DEWPOINTS PUSH WESTWARD INTO CO...WITH NAM CAPES OF 3-4K
J/KG NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WED EVENING. HARD TO FIND MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST TERRAIN FORCED TSRA
DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING. NAM DOES HINT AS SOME TSRA FORMING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE WED NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN PLACE FOR
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOST PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT
WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 40 KTS)
ON THU...FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NM BORDER EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS WAITING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION UNTIL THU EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
HUNCH IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT MAY GIVE THE FRONT A BIGGER
SOUTHWARD SHOVE THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE MARGINAL IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AND WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN
36-48 HR RANGE TO BETTER REFINE BOTH SEVERE THREAT AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LOW
PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHEARING
NORTHEAST LATE SUN/MON. STILL SOME THREAT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...THOUGH 12Z MODELS AREN`T
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY MOVING THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA
NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION REGARDING POSITION OF COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
FRONT DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF WAS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AREA-WIDE
FRI...THEN AGAIN SUN/MON AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
STRENGTHENS. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SLOPES IF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
PLAINS CAN BE PUSHED WESTWARD BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. FORECAST IS RATHER BROAD BRUSHED WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS
THROUGH TUE...WHICH LOOKS OK FOR NOW. TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON CONVECTION...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGF OF EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE THREAT AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
EVENING. THE THREAT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER DURING THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE. 12Z
NAM/14Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM...SO UPDATED POPS WEIGHED TOWARDS A
BLEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI
NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
THROUGH.
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY IFR CIGS
IN LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME LOCAL OCCASIONAL MVFR REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THE WHOLE NIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTING
EARLY WED. NE WINDS NEAR 10 KT...LOWER A FEW KTS TONIGHT AND THEN
BECOME MORE E-SE WED INCREASING BACK TO NEAR 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT AND VSBYS 2 SM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 2 SM POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.
IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL VSBYS 2 SM POSSIBLE BEFORE 01Z.
IFR END TIME COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HRS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF AROUND 1/10 TO 3/4 INCH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ZONES. THE
STILL RIVER AT BROOKVILLE IN NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS THIS MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO
RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...2 JUNE 2015
LOCATION RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FORECAST HIGH TODAY
CENTRAL PARK 52/1946 56
BRIDGEPORT 61/1976 55
ISLIP 59/1997 55
LAGUARDIA 53/1946 56
NEWARK 54/1946 58
J F KENNEDY 62/2005 56
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/MALOIT/JP
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT/JP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE. 12Z
NAM/14Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM...SO UPDATED POPS WEIGHED TOWARDS A
BLEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI
NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
THROUGH.
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM IFR TO
MARGINAL VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. BY LATE MORNING CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL VFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO MID AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...030 TO 060
TRUE...10 TO 15 KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
CHANGING CONDITIONS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME IFR
THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE CEILINGS REMAIN MARGINAL VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR THIS MORNING...AND COULD BE
SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MARGINAL VFR TO VFR FIRST...AROUND 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF AROUND 1/10 TO 3/4 INCH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ZONES. THE
STILL RIVER AT BROOKVILLE IN NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS THIS MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO
RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...2 JUNE 2015
LOCATION RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FORECAST HIGH TODAY
CENTRAL PARK 52/1946 56
BRIDGEPORT 61/1976 55
ISLIP 59/1997 55
LAGUARDIA 53/1946 56
NEWARK 54/1946 58
J F KENNEDY 62/2005 56
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/24
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/24
HYDROLOGY...JP/24
CLIMATE...MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA TODAY. ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE POCONOS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE RAIN
SHOWERS FILLING IN FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO POPS
AND QPF WERE INCREASED A TOUCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGHEST QPF
UP TO 1/3 INCH IS POSSIBLE FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST NJ.
THICK CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH TODAY. LAV GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, NOT RISING MUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PRECIP ACRS THE SRN AREAS, MOST
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN DREARY AND COOL. WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THERE WILL BE
SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER OVER THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE DURING THAT PERIOD
OF TIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND VICINITY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. A ROBUST MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART
OF OUR REGION EACH DAY. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WARM FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS MAY BE VARIABLE POSSIBLY REACHING 1,000 FEET OR SO AT
TIMES, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5
MILES AS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE BETWEEN RDG AND TTN
THROUGH 20Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS. ALSO, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA AS WELL. THERE CUD BE A DROP BELOW SCA DURG THE
MRNG TODAY, BUT CONDS SHUD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF A NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING
AROUND 25 KNOTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND AND TODAY`S FULL MOON, WE
WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
LATE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED
INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEEN REACHED AFTER A SLOW
START AND CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO POP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR FROM CHARLESTON TO MCCLELLANVILLE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH MORE ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE FARTHER INLAND AIDED BY BROAD
UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER EASTERN
TENNESSEE WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
DCAPES RISING TO 800-1000 J/KG...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK
FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS--MAINLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...ALTHOUGH A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. COULD SEE FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOP AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TRAINING AND A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST POTENTIAL COLLIDING WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE AFTER SUNSET. HIGH-END LIKELY POPS OF 70 PERCENT WILL
BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGHER GRIDDED POPS SHIFTING INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
ORGANIZES FARTHER INLAND...A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS COULD APPROACH THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP 30-40
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...EXCEPT MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AT DAYBREAK A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. THROUGH THE DAY THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL SLOWLY SWING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...AND PWATS OF 1.60-1.75 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20-25 KTS AND WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG...A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 600
J/KG WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS PRIMARY THREAT. SPC DOES
HAVE THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOW 80S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DECENT FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT WILL STILL BE IN
THE VICINITY SO THERE WILL AGAIN BE FORCING MECHANISMS PRESENT TO
KICK OFF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE POOR...BUT DECENT SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...SO
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND/LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST...HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HAVE
DECREASED POPS A BIT TO LOW CHANCES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WEAK
SHEAR...POOR LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
RETREATS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER
TO SOME DEGREE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY EVEN RISING JUST ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...THE SEABREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND OF KCHS AS OF 18Z...THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE
TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE AND THE CONVECTION WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...BUT SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THANKS TO DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW.
KSAV...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS BEEN LESS
THAN ANTICIPATED SO FAR TODAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY OVERHEAD OF KSAV AT 18Z. THE
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR
KSAV LOOKS TO BE 19Z TO 22Z. VFR CEILINGS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
FILL IN FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN STORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NO CONCERNS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER/NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY AT
TIMES HOWEVER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FEET ON AVERAGE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/ECT/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
STUBBORN STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM A NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST LOW.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING A 925-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-
RES CAMS TAKE AN MCS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TRACK ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z HRRR DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z. THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE
850MB WARM NOSE/MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD POP GRID GRADIENT GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES
THAT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES RANK IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE BASED ON OAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDS INCREASING FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONSIDERATIONS NEEDED FOR BOTH
MESO SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MAIN FEATURES TO
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE THE MOISTURE CHANNEL BEGINS TO
EDGE EAST WITH TIME. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MOVING EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK H700 WAVE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANOTHER SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND 36 HOURS BEGINS TO DIMINISH...AS EVOLUTION OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY ALTER THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H850 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA. MESO NMM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWARD
DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE EURO KEEPING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TREND FOR NOW. THROUGH FRIDAY THE EURO CONTINUES THE TREND
FOR MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER...WHILE THE GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT/THUNDER OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES. HIGH MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT H850 IS
HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z FRIDAY. GFS
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO ARE ON THE RISE...IN A RANGE OF 11KFT TO NEAR
13KFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE GFS MAY NOT BE THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR ITS MORE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF STORM FEATURES...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE GFS WITH ITS MORE
NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OVER IOWA IS SHOWING 4.25 TO 4.75 INCHES OF QPF
OVER THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE EURO HAS ONLY
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER VALUES SOUTH OF US34. THE EURO
HAS ITS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FROM NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN
MO. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS. FOR NOW HYDRO SITUATION CAN TAKE A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE REMAINS AT 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR A 3 HR PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
ANY TIME...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOCAL URBAN RUNOFF EFFECTS
OR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT OCCUR
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES. GIVEN TODAYS UNCERTAINTY OF
EVOLUTION OF MESO/SYNOPTIC FEATURE INTERACTIONS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
MILD...75 TO 85 RANGE...WITH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAINY PATTERN WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN
IOWA TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE
NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED
3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF
NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND
200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT
ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER
STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA
AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH
SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO
SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW
VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING
THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
PUSH SWD AND STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY DIGS SE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS
TIME. SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY/NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND PWATS
HOVER BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES. FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LESS
OF A GRIP ON THE REGION. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AFTN THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO MID- UPPER 70S SE. LOWS
WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE 60S (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES WED NIGHT).
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENING SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT
OCCURS IN THE NEAR/SHORT PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF FEATURE FAIRLY
LIGHT N/NW FLOW ALOFT SAT INTO SUN AS THE MID ATLC BECOMES
SITUATED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. TEMPS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
THROUGH CANADA THROUGH NEXT TUE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA ON
SUN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS SAT/SUN AS THE GFS IS A BIT
OF A CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY AND THINK IT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YR. DID DROP POPS TO 20% ACRS NE
ZONES. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SUN...WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FLOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SSE AND EVENTUALLY THE SSW MON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A BIT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS MON
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...THEN GO ONLY 20% OR LESS TUE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENLY IN THE 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ALREADY RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION
AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. LATEST SUITE OF
HIGH RES MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY
LATER THIS EVENING FOR 15-20 KT NE WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
SIMILAR WINDS OVERNIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXACT LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WHERE HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED...IN GENERAL SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS WHERE MOST
UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST...SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE
NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT
ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE
NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED
3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF
NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE
TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND
200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT
ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL
RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER
STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA
AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH
SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO
SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW
VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING
THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA
AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR
PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING
THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS
STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE
ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE TRAVERSING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AT LEAST FEATURING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME INTERESTING WIND FEATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE RIDGETOPS...WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES BELOW THE RIDGETOPS AND A
STABLE LAYER NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. THIS SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN FOR THEM TO BE OF MUCH
CONCERN...HOWEVER EASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE
IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN EVOLVES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. THIS SLOWLY TURNS OUR
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW A BIT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
RUN INTO THE AREA...INCREASING LAPSE RATES BY FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INDICATE A WARMING TREND AS
STRATUS FINALLY GIVES WAY TO BETTER MIXING AND MORE INSOLATION AS
THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS DEFINITION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING
A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER
CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KYNG TO NEAR
KBFD...WITH DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS LINE AIDING IN SLOW SOUTHWARD
EROSION OF THE OVERCAST DECK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
SOUTHWARD ONLY A BIT BEFORE WIND DIRECTION TURNS TO THE EAST AND
REINFORCES THE STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
THERE IS LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS GUIDANCE
IS NOT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RESUMING MVFR-IFR CEILING AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. GIVEN THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND VEERING WIND...THIS
FORECAST WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC AT MANY SITES.
AS ESELY WIND INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD HEIGHT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO HIGH
MVFR LEVELS. IN SHORT...MOST TERMINALS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KFKL/ ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
WORSE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACRS THE FAR NE...WHERE ONSHORE E/NE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO
THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO
TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS.
ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO
MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF
NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING
PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY
THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES
BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE
MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS
AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST
AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACRS THE FAR NE...WHERE ONSHORE E/NE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF
LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING
THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 60S.
NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED
AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER.
RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE
LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S...
RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
60S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND
FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG
THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING
AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS
DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR
TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY
HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST
SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW
SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT
ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE
WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA
HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY.
EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS.
PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.
AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.
TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).
THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart
as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa. Updated the forecast to go
dry across eastern KS into western MO region through the afternoon.
May have to watch for a few showers, maybe even a storm moving into
far northwest MO later this afternoon where mid-level isentropic
ascent will increase later today. HRRR has been persistent in
producing precipitation across these areas, although the presence of
an EML below 700 hPa may make it difficult for any showers to really
get going. Threw in a `just-in-case` 20 percent for showers up that
way later today. Otherwise, thick low-level moisture remains trapped
below a deep inversion across northern and central MO, and these
areas appear unlikely to see much sun until maybe early evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Looks like another nice day, especially if the clouds scatter out
some this afternoon. Persistent low clouds through Monday helped
suppress temperatures that greeted the work week, and the trend this
morning is more of the same as low clouds remain trapped under a
modest inversion. As a result, low clouds will once again great the
day, but is more hope as a bit more boundary layer mixing later in
the day should help the clouds break up a bit for the afternoon
hours allowing warmer conditions, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri where cloud cover kept our
highs limited to the 60s Monday. As at result expect a rather
pleasant afternoon high in the 70s. Otherwise, for this morning have
inserted a fleeting slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and extreme western Missouri. Convective activity early this
morning is noted across the high plains to our west as a result of
decent moisture transport and isentropic assent associated with a
shortwave trough exiting the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. As the shortwave transits farther northeast the moisture
transport driving the storms will shift east resulting in many short
range high-res models advertising a line of broken showers or
thunderstorms bubbling up early this morning across eastern Kansas
which will waft toward western Missouri for a couple of hours this
morning. With no strong upper level dynamics to help support the
storms or shear or instability to work with any storms that do
bubble up will not have much life to them. Have limited mention of
storms in the forecast to isolated activity along the
Kansas-Missouri border for the morning hours as a result, but may
remove even these fleeting slight chance POPs if satellite or radar
data don`t start showing any activity bubbling up over the next
couple of hours in eastern Kansas.
Looking beyond today, weather in our section of the country will be
greatly influenced by a ridge poking up into the Plains States and
the shortwave trough that spill over its apex, bringing the
potential for storms to our region. In general, models continue to
advertise a persistent weakness in the flow across the eastern CONUS
over the coming week. Coupled with a persistent ridge axis across
the Plains, and/or southern Rockies, and this sets the stage for
multiple rounds of storms starting Wednesday and lasting through the
weekend as each successive trough slips east to southeast through
the northern and central Plains. Confidence in anyone period for
storms is not the best, so have continued with a general broad brush
of Chance and Likely POPs for Wednesday through Friday. Have gone
with mostly slight-chance to no-chance POPs for the day Saturday as
a hint that it wont be stormy all the time, but confidence in any
period being storm free through the weekend is rather low. Severe
potential is a bit hard to rough out given the uncertainties of the
current crop of model solutions, but in general what rain the storms
bring us in the coming days does not look as significant as the
flooding rain we had in recent weeks. This does not mean that
flooding wont be possible, just not widespread.
Otherwise, with our section of the Nation on the nose of a ridge
axis for the next week, expect temperatures to climb up into the 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s. Starting to feel a bit like summer!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Low level moisture has been stubborn to clear out these past few
days, and current thinking is that today will be similar with
scattered to broken MVFR clouds sticking around for several more
hours. May need to watch for some scattered showers and storms toward
sunrise but confidence is not very high on this.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart
as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa. Updated the forecast to go
dry across eastern KS into western MO region through the afternoon.
May have to watch for a few showers, maybe even a storm moving into
far northwest MO later this afternoon where mid-level isentropic
ascent will increase later today. HRRR has been persistent in
producing precipitation across these areas, although the presence of
an EML below 700 hPa may make it difficult for any showers to really
get going. Threw in a `just-in-case` 20 percent for showers up that
way later today. Otherwise, thick low-level moisture remains trapped
below a deep inversion across northern and central MO, and these
areas appear unlikely to see much sun until maybe early evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
Looks like another nice day, especially if the clouds scatter out
some this afternoon. Persistent low clouds through Monday helped
suppress temperatures that greeted the work week, and the trend this
morning is more of the same as low clouds remain trapped under a
modest inversion. As a result, low clouds will once again great the
day, but is more hope as a bit more boundary layer mixing later in
the day should help the clouds break up a bit for the afternoon
hours allowing warmer conditions, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri where cloud cover kept our
highs limited to the 60s Monday. As at result expect a rather
pleasant afternoon high in the 70s. Otherwise, for this morning have
inserted a fleeting slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and extreme western Missouri. Convective activity early this
morning is noted across the high plains to our west as a result of
decent moisture transport and isentropic assent associated with a
shortwave trough exiting the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains. As the shortwave transits farther northeast the moisture
transport driving the storms will shift east resulting in many short
range high-res models advertising a line of broken showers or
thunderstorms bubbling up early this morning across eastern Kansas
which will waft toward western Missouri for a couple of hours this
morning. With no strong upper level dynamics to help support the
storms or shear or instability to work with any storms that do
bubble up will not have much life to them. Have limited mention of
storms in the forecast to isolated activity along the
Kansas-Missouri border for the morning hours as a result, but may
remove even these fleeting slight chance POPs if satellite or radar
data don`t start showing any activity bubbling up over the next
couple of hours in eastern Kansas.
Looking beyond today, weather in our section of the country will be
greatly influenced by a ridge poking up into the Plains States and
the shortwave trough that spill over its apex, bringing the
potential for storms to our region. In general, models continue to
advertise a persistent weakness in the flow across the eastern CONUS
over the coming week. Coupled with a persistent ridge axis across
the Plains, and/or southern Rockies, and this sets the stage for
multiple rounds of storms starting Wednesday and lasting through the
weekend as each successive trough slips east to southeast through
the northern and central Plains. Confidence in anyone period for
storms is not the best, so have continued with a general broad brush
of Chance and Likely POPs for Wednesday through Friday. Have gone
with mostly slight-chance to no-chance POPs for the day Saturday as
a hint that it wont be stormy all the time, but confidence in any
period being storm free through the weekend is rather low. Severe
potential is a bit hard to rough out given the uncertainties of the
current crop of model solutions, but in general what rain the storms
bring us in the coming days does not look as significant as the
flooding rain we had in recent weeks. This does not mean that
flooding wont be possible, just not widespread.
Otherwise, with our section of the Nation on the nose of a ridge
axis for the next week, expect temperatures to climb up into the 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s. Starting to feel a bit like summer!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
MVFR clouds dominate the Kansas-Missouri border region and all our
terminals as a result this morning. Low clouds should have a bit more
success today scattering out this afternoon with the help of
southeast winds. There is a small potential that isolated
thunderstorms will bubble up across eastern Kansas and drift east
into far western Missouri during the morning hours, but the
likelihood of any of the storms is thought to be so small as to not
warrant including in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.
CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.
THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NORTHEAST PA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT AVP AROUND 20Z...
THEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 02Z. ELSEWHERE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY
BY 00Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON WEDNESDAY... THEN SKIES WILL BE CLEAR LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NW-NE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL AS IT
SLOWLY BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...STORMS CONGREGATING SW TO NE ALONG THE
INLAND-BOUND AND DECELERATING SEA BREEZE. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS LINE AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION
HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS. WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP RETURN
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION.
THE HRRR HOWEVER WHICH IS INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE IS
NOT OVERLY ENAMORED WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REDEVELOPING. JUST
WEST OF OUR CWA THE SKY DOES HAVE A MORE CONVECTIVE/CUMULUS
APPEARANCE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THERE THEY MAY CLIP PART OF THE
AREA WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM 210 DEGREES. SHOULD THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LOWERED A BIT WEST OF THE
CURRENT LINE. SIMILARLY THE MARINE LAYER HAS LARGELY STABILIZED
AREAS EAST OF THE LINE AND POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE THERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. THE
COAST WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WHILE HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT IMPINGE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CUTOFF FROM
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE NORTH THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES WED AND THU AND
THEN FINALLY OPEN UP...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES LATE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LATER WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATE INSTABILITY LEVELS INTO THU. AT THE SAME TIME...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FOSTER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO TRAIN...WHICH OVER TIME...COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
SOME COMMUNITIES. THUS...IN ADDITION TO HIGH POPS...WILL HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAIN RISK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ON WED. THESE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN
SLIGHTLY BY THU. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT AND INTO THU AS WELL
GIVEN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 500 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
DEVELOPING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
LEAD TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THU AND THIS IS
WHEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. REMAINS OF DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
AREA THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF IT LEFT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN WITH LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY AT
TIMES. LOCATING/TIMING THESE FEATURE AT LONG RANGES IS QUITE
DIFFICULT AT BEST SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING HIGH CHC POP THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY MAY NOT JUST BE DIURNAL IN NATURE GIVEN
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT. A SECOND FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IT TOO IS LIKELY TO STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL TEND TO KEEP
HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BUT HOLD LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL SEND US A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR BY
EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE
ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL
FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA
BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS
FROM THIS TREND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND NW BEFORE
STALLING AND THEN WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED FRI AND SAT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WED MORNING WILL SETTLE ON SE DURING THE DAY
WED. SE TO S WINDS WED EVE WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THU MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
BUT UP TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER WED AND WED EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FT THROUGHOUT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AT TIMES...WITH CONVECTION AND
SEA BREEZE BEING THE MOST LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH SUN WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
STORMS CONGREGATING SW TO NE ALONG THE INLAND-BOUND AND DECELERATING
SEA BREEZE. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
THIS LINE AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS. WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP RETURN SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION. THE HRRR HOWEVER WHICH IS
INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE IS NOT OVERLY ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA OF STORMS REDEVELOPING. JUST WEST OF OUR CWA THE SKY DOES HAVE
A MORE CONVECTIVE/CUMULUS APPEARANCE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THERE
THEY MAY CLIP PART OF THE AREA WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM 210
DEGREES. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LOWERED A
BIT WEST OF THE CURRENT LINE. SIMILARLY THE MARINE LAYER HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED AREAS EAST OF THE LINE AND POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE THERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. THE
COAST WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WHILE HEIGHT FALLS
AND COOLING ALOFT IMPINGE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN A BIT AS IT
REACHES OVERHEAD BY FRI MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC TROUGH OR REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW AND ALONG SEA
BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND ANY OTHER LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH DRIVING THE SHWRS/TSTMS LENDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
MAY BE TOUGH TO TIME EXACT PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED
BY SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LENDING TO A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER SPOTS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST WITH DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN
TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. TEMPS MAY NOT
EVEN REACH 80 DURING THE DAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER AS CUTOFF MOVES
CLOSER OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW SHOULD OPEN UP TO TROUGH AS IT
WEAKENS SLOWLY REACHING OVERHEAD FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SHIFT OFF
SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS IT BEGINS TO SLIP OFF THE COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND FROM THE NORTH BUT LOOKS
LIKE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND NEARBY AS IT
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. A DEEPER NW FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLOW FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE LOCALIZED FOR THE MOST
PART WITH SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT EAST MON INTO
TUES WITH INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT.
AFTER A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM START TO THE LONG TERM...EXPECT TEMPS
TO WARM IN INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS AS CUT OFF LOW
DEPARTS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL SEND US A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR BY
EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO
GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD
TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS FROM THIS TREND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHIFTS EAST
REACHING THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY FRI MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE REFLECTION TO LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS.
LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WED MORNING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED
EVEN AND THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE TO N-NW BY END OF PERIOD. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING A LINGERING FRONT TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRI MORNING TO
SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. BY
SATURDAY WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO THE SE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND FRONT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAVE COMBINED TO BRING WET
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR DAYS...MANY INDICATIONS POINTING TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A COUPLE REASONS
FOR THIS. FIRST...WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS POINT TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF 700 MB WHICH STILL SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN FIVE. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER AS
OPPOSED TO SATURATED TO THE SURFACE WHICH WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS. SECOND...PRE EXISTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD...AND THUS WILL PUSH THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...FURTHER EAST. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY VERY CLEAR IN THE OBSERVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST AND UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE DAY AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX WITH
WET DOWNBURSTS BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. RAP FORECAST REALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS BUT SHEAR IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO CERTAINLY
THINK IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO MID 80S EAST.
TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN THE EAST WITH NOT MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 1. LOWS IN THE LOW
60S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE CHANGES LITTLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY LEAD TO
NUISANCE FLOODING OF STREETS/LOW LYING AREAS. SINCE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND LIMITED IN SCOPE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. NEAR SFC NELY FLOW BEHIND THE
SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LOW
LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 03Z-05Z AS ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES USUAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS LOWER 60S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC STILL ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MODERATING
AIRMASS SOME. HOWEVER... WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. THE MID LEVEL LOW ON
THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS)... WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... OVERALL DEEP
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST. THUS... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME... WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING
AIRMASS... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA (AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST ECWMF... WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MORE) SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE
TO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT.
THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR
NORMAL.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL
SMALL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT COULD HELP GENERATE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES RECOVER
AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER TOWARDS
EVENING WITH THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUST INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS ON CEILING AND VISIBILITY. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AFTER 6Z OR SO AND THEN A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CHANCE THAT THESE COULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT MVFR
LEVELS IF NOT LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ADVECTING OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
251 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER LARGE INVERSION AS H5 LOW
SWINGS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. OBVIOUSLY THE
FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK TODAY. THE
RAP AND HRRR GRADUALLY BEGIN THE BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE H9 MOISTURE THE LONGEST IN THE NW. THE
MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NW. THE 12Z
NAM JUST CAME IN AND IT NOW LINGERS THE H9 MOISTURE ALL DAY. THE
UPDATE WAS PUT OUT BEFORE THE 12Z NAM CAME IN...SO IT WAS BASED ON
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP. WENT
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST...LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR/RAP SOLUTION...WITH A LITTLE BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM. THIS
PRODUCED A MUCH CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...BACKED OFF ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THIS PULLED AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME
ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE LINGERED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO WORK SOUTH
FROM LAKE ERIE. CIGS IN CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD GO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS AT THE OTHER TAFS MVFR.
THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE LOCATION OF THE H9 MOISTURE HANDLED
THE BEST...SO FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION. KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE, AFTER SUNSET SLOWLY
LOWERED THE CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG.
HAVE THE FOG AND CIGS LIFTING GRADUALLY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT NOT GOING VFR UNTIL AFT 18Z IN THE EXTENDED CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER
CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE SOUTHERN LAURELS UP INTO THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHEASTWARD...UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE RAP SHOW THIS SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE EVENING. SOME CLEARING HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NW...BUT IMPROVEMENT OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE GRADUAL AT BEST. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PRETTY STEADY RAIN IN STORE INTO THE EVENING FOR ABOUT THE SERN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN LINGERING IN A NARROW ZONE OVER THE MD
BORDER COUNTIES WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE IMPROVING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
HOWEVER COULD SEE SHOWERS LINGER EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE DRY PUSH WILL BE LESS THAN VIGOROUS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S JUST TO THE EAST OF
KBFD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY. THE
SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER AIR
IS WORKING INTO NRN PA AND BRADFORD HAS RESPONDED WITH LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS GOING VFR.
A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LIKELY HOLD LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.
BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 94 61 93 / 0 10 0 10
TULIA 63 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 95 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 65 93 65 92 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 63 96 63 94 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 65 96 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across West
Central Texas this afternoon, but confidence remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the TAF package. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions into tomorrow morning, with MVFR stratus
possible at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT during the early morning hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy stratus has developed across the Hill Country. Although VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail, brief MVFR are possible early
this morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across West Central Texas today,
but confidence remains low, so any mention of thunder was left
out of the TAF package. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through
this evening, with stratus possible at mainly KSOA, KBBD and KJCT
early Wednesday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico
into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in
north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level
ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are
forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser
extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge
remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given
abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level
ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the
northern half of the area. Again, most locations will remain dry,
but an isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible. Highs
today will be slightly higher than what we saw yesterday, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Daniels
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
The synoptic pattern depicted by the medium range models implies a
relatively quiet week across West Central Texas. Basically, the
subtropical ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the next 7 days. This is good news to those that
are anxious for a dry period, but not-so-good news for those
wanting area reservoirs to collect additional runoff. Rain chances
will remain less than 10 percent through the weekend.
There are a few early morning periods where the models produce QPF
across the Hill Country, but this is thought to be the result of
an overactive convective parameterization. That said, low clouds
during the morning hours will certainly be possible during the
morning (mainly across the northwest Hill Country). However,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated during the
afternoon hours with a typical summertime cumulus field developing
by midday.
There is some indication of a pattern change by Tuesday of next
week. A strong shortwave trough is progged to move east across
the central Plains, flattening the subtropical ridge and setting
up northwest flow aloft across the southern Plains. This could
open up the door for potential convection by midweek, but these
are details that will not become apparent for a few more days.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal during this
period, topping out in the low to (possibly) mid 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 90 69 90 68 / 5 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 68 93 69 93 69 / 5 0 0 0 0
Junction 68 91 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL LINGER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL
KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND STORMS GOING INTO MIDDLE OR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MTNS OF NE TN THIS MORNING...WITH BEST THETA-E RIDGING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NWD
FROM SOUTH OF THE TRIAD IN NC TO THE ERN CWA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
FAVORING A SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT THINK ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THIS TAKES PLACE...SO MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE CWA IS LOW...THOUGH
THE CMC AND HRRR DO SHOW SOME BREAKS RETURNING TO THE MTNS. WITH
LIMITED SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE...CUT
BACK WORDING OF THUNDER TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF FRONT TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD COVER...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER WET ONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
COMPLICATED IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION TODAY AND
WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH PRECIP FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CULPRITS REMAIN
WITH A CUTOFF 5H LOW JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEP PWATS TO GET BANDS OF CONVECTION GOING THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY SHRA FADES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SW LATER AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS OVER A BIT MORE IN BACKDOOR
FASHION UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTED BY BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS OUT WEST...AND
WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EAST WHERE WILL SLOWLY GET
TRAJECTORIES SWITCHING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT UNDER
THE 85H THETA-E GRADIENT LATER ON. BEST INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH WEAK
ALSO PROGGED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO MERGE ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING PER LATEST ENSEMBLES. THUS APPEARS BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH/EAST WITH THE
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SE-SW BUT GRADUALLY FILLING IN ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE LATE. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPING POPS FROM CHANCE AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL STAY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN A MILD START BUT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND IFFY TIMING OF ONSET OF THE DEVELOPING WEAK WEDGE
LATER TODAY. MOS VALUES HAVE COOLED QUITE A BIT BUT LIKELY ARE TOO
COOL PARTS OF THE WEST/SOUTH WHERE THINK ANY COOL ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIKELY ENOUGH EARLY CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO LIMIT
RISES TO SOME DEGREE. THUS TRENDED WITH THE WARMER MAV WHICH
STILL KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IF CLOUDS LOWER
SOONER.
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO GET PINNED IN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE VA BLUE
RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE RUNNING IN
FROM THE SE ALONG THE STALLED 85H FRONT AND UNDER THE 5H LOW. THIS
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE GIVEN DEEP SATURATION AND AN
INVERSION ALOFT. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ELEVATED CONVECTION PER
COOLNESS ALOFT AND PROGGED LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 5H LOW. THIS
WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT AS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES PENDING THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
SINCE COVERAGE COULD AGAIN BE MORE SCATTERED NATURE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVERALL FFG RATHER HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. OTRW KEEPING PERSISTENT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN A SWATH ROUGHLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
IN VA TONIGHT AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE WITH LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER THIS MORNING SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND TRAVELS EASTWARD TO THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...EXPECT DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN COOL WEDGE. LOW LEVEL
STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE
RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHAPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IS GOING TO MEANDER TOWARD VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND MORE CONVECTION WEST OF HLX-MWK.
THE MTNS OF SE WV WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIP IF ANY UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO BRING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THINK THE TAF SITES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BACK TO IFR/MVFR AND AT
TIMES LIFR IN THE MTNS/ROANOKE WITH WEDGE SETTING UP. MODELS KEEP
IT WET THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. VSBYS AS WELL WILL COME DOWN TO IFR/MVFR
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FOG TONIGHT/WED
MORNING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION
TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/WP
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
HIGH...AS EVIDENT BY THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ARE HANGING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING. OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE SO
FAR TODAY. AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY TO
PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. OTHER THAN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.
WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOISTURE INVADE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT THE COLUMN MOISTENS
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MIDDAY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS.
EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK IS
HOW LONG IT TAKES A COLD FRONT TO TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND THUS HOW LONG IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS THIS RUN REGARDING
THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS MAINTAIN A TROUGH FEATURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSER
INSPECTION OF THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT SUSPICIOUS...WITH THE
MODEL APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHEN NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL SIDE
WITH THE CONSENSUS IN THIS INSTANCE IN TRACKING THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER
ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DRY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE
COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AGAIN BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE AND
TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH FASTER THAN THE MORE DELIBERATE GFS
SOLUTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE
FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT TOO QUICK THIS RUN. A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THURSDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......PK
AVIATION.......MPC