Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/01/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
958 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN UTAH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO KEEPS REGENERATING AFTER
SUNSET...APPEARS TO BE SOME FORCING MECHANISM THAT KEEP THESE
SHOWERS ONGOING. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN
COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A VERY WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS HELPING ADD A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OVER
RIDGES...WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. THE STRONGER CELL OVER NORTHEAST
UT SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY AND SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ADJACENT UINTA BASIN. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WILL TRAVEL EAST AND ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY...CO THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS TERRAIN INFLUENCE SO EXPECT
THE STORMS TO BE LESS INTENSE. THE REST OF THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER LITTLE WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A FEW OF THEM.
THE CENTRAL AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY. A NOTICABLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND PAC NW
TROUGH INTERACT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LEFT END (SOUTHWEST FLOW) OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
REIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE WEEK CONTINUES...KEEPING
DRIER AIR AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHICH WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCE. THE GFS, EC, AND CMC ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE PROGGING
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO GET CAUGHT IN THIS DOMINENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH ALL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE THERE COULD BE MAJOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOUDY AND WET
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LESS STORMS
OVER THE SRN HALF. A FEW STORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I70
CORRIDOR AND AFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF KRIL...KEGE AND KASE. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...BUT VERY LOCALIZED
THUNDER MAY LAST UNTIL 06Z.
AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH INITIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL TRACK TOWARD NE-E.
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS E NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. FURTHER E ACROSS W NEW
ENG...MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED BUT KI VALUES ARE
LESS THAN WHAT IS OBSERVED OVER E NY...MOSTLY LESS THAN 30
INDICATING LESS MOISTURE. KI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A
BIT SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM IN W MA AND HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLD CONVECTION.
STRATUS AND FOG CONFINED TO S COASTAL WATERS AND ISLANDS AND
LIFTING N SO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND CAPE COD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES AND STABILIZE E
HALF NEW ENG. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND VT IN HIGHER THETA-E AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY. MODELS DO
GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN W NEW ENG WITH CAPES 500-1000
J/KG BUT 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. HRRR SHOWS A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS W MA FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM THE S COAST WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR NE MA. OTHERWISE 70S NEAR THE S COAST DUE
TO GUSTY SW FLOW. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
NOTICED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHOWALTERS WILL BE BELOW
0 WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. AREA THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...ESP NORTH OF ROUTE 2.
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL
BE DENSE OR NOT.
TOMORROW...
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION AS LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT. REGARDLESS BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS ELEVATED THUNDER PARAMETERS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IS BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.6 INCHES AND THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW
ALOFT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO A
SLOW STORM MOTION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE WILL SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. PERHAPS IT WILL
PUSH WORCESTER OUT OF THE TOP 5 DRIEST MAYS ON RECORD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
QUITE A CHANGE IN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE 30/00Z GUIDANCE FROM THOSE
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT IT WAS NOTEWORTHY THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE LATCHED ON TO THIS SLOWER TIMING. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE RIDGING RETURNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVORED A MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE TO
SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR DIFFERENCES...WHERE POSSIBLE.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
TIMING A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ALL MOVE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT THEN SHOULD ALIGN WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA...SHOULD BRING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...
PROVIDING BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY...DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR LOCAL SEABREEZES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL WARM-UP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z...MOSTLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ISLANDS. LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN MA.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NWD
ACROSS SNE. FOG WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SE COASTAL NEW ENG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL EXPAND N ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
SNE. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NEAR THE MASS PIKE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW
TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE NE MA IN THE
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT...15-18Z ALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE
REACHING S COAST 21-00Z.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. LOCAL
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL GENERATE
5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. HOWEVER...5 FOOT SWELL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CAA
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY
ON THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20
KT...AND PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...EACH DAY. SEAS 5 TO 8
FEET ON THE EASTERN MA WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED WITH EXCEPTION OF THE S COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF RI COAST...WHILE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS
NE CT AND RI. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY
MIDDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT PT-MOSUNNY SKIES.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES AND STABILIZE E
HALF NEW ENG. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND VT IN HIGHER THETA-E AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY. MODELS DO
GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN W NEW ENG WITH CAPES 500-1000
J/KG BUT 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. HRRR SHOWS A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS W MA FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM THE S COAST WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR NE MA. OTHERWISE 70S NEAR THE S COAST DUE
TO GUSTY SW FLOW. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
NOTICED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHOWALTERS WILL BE BELOW
0 WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. AREA THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...ESP NORTH OF ROUTE 2.
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL
BE DENSE OR NOT.
TOMORROW...
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION AS LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT. REGARDLESS BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS ELEVATED THUNDER PARAMETERS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IS BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.6 INCHES AND THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW
ALOFT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO A
SLOW STORM MOTION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE WILL SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. PERHAPS IT WILL
PUSH WORCESTER OUT OF THE TOP 5 DRIEST MAYS ON RECORD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
QUITE A CHANGE IN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE 30/00Z GUIDANCE FROM THOSE
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT IT WAS NOTEWORTHY THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE LATCHED ON TO THIS SLOWER TIMING. MODELS HAVE ALSO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE RIDGING RETURNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVORED A MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE TO
SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR DIFFERENCES...WHERE POSSIBLE.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
TIMING A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ALL MOVE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT THEN SHOULD ALIGN WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA...SHOULD BRING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...
PROVIDING BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY...DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT
WINDS WILL FAVOR LOCAL SEABREEZES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL WARM-UP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE
S COAST ERODING BY MIDDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-TSRA. FOG AND STRATUS MAY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE COULD SEE SOME LLWS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES ON SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. LOCAL
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL GENERATE
5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. HOWEVER...5 FOOT SWELL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CAA
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY
ON THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20
KT...AND PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...EACH DAY. SEAS 5 TO 8
FEET ON THE EASTERN MA WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ALBANY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A REVIEW OF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PWATS ARE
CLIMBING ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA WITH THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS
TRANSVERSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA. H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODIFYING THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM YIELDS SBCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SPC OUTLOOK OF `MARGINAL` 5%. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE NOON HOUR THEN EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS UPSTREAM FRONT SLOWS
DOWN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
PWATS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE CWFA. SO FOR THIS
ESTF...MODIFIED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
OBSERVATIONS...ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RESPECT TO SOME GUST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AND PER THE
SOUNDINGS...OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISC...
AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...IT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST (AROUND 5.5 C/KM). HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL
RAMP UP TO ABOUT 1500 SBCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR
MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL WHICH MEANS SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT. WE WILL INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WIND
APPEARS THE BIGGER THREAT.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS
EVENING...AND WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...COMBINING WITH PWATS WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS SET UP IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD
BET TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
NOW IT WILL PROBABLY NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME FRAME. INITIALLY IT
LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE MIGHT BE A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ONE WAVE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
FORM BY LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY...WESTERN PA AND UP ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FIRST AREAS
TO FEEL THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...WHILE MUGGIER 60S WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT HOLD IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...STILL WARMER
SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE WILL LIKELY POP INTO THE 70S.
MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE COOL SECTORS...GENERALLY AROUND 70 SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 60S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...60 OR LOWER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE
MUCH CLOSER FOR THE 1ST DAY OF MAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FIRST DAY OF
JUNE.
TO THE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH.
CHECKING ANOMALIES...THE PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUE TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850 SOUTHERLY COMPONENT REACHED
THE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE...AND THE 250 WIND (EAST WEST)
COMPONENT NEVER STRAYS THAT MUCH FROM NORMAL. THE 03Z SREFS AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR ALBANY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 3.5
INCHES. THE 00Z GEFS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AVERAGING AROUND 3
INCHES WITH MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND
1.3 INCHES.
FOR NOW OUR QPF WAS BLEND OF THE GEFS/SREF. MORE ABOUT THE QPF CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WAVE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WE CAN STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 50.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH KGFL BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS AND SCT CUMULUS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A MVFR STRATUS DECK
WAS OVER KPOU AS OF 630 AM. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY
AROUND 14Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF AFTER 21Z...AND INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
30/21Z- 22Z AND 31/03Z-04Z. AT KPOU THE VCSH STARTS AT 23Z WITH
THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 30/23Z TO 31/05Z. AFTER THE THREAT OF
TSTMS...HAVE FORECAST CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...VSBYS SHOULD LOWER EVEN FURTHER...WITH CIGS
LOWERING INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KALB. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL START OFF WITH HIGH RH VALUES TODAY...IN THE 75-90
PERCENT RANGE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...LESS NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY HAPPEN TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WHILE IT NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THIS
TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY EVERYONE WILL END UP WITH WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL...MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING AROUND TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL.
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS
ARE REPLACED BY DRIER AND EVENTUALLY A RETURNS TO WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR
REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ALBANY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADARS STILL DEPICTED NO ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATEST RAP INDICATED THE
SAME IDEA...NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DID HINT AT SOME
THETA-RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND
GFS DID NOT HAVE THIS. AT THIS TIME WE LEANED AGAINST THIS HAPPENING
BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING DOES.
THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS UP ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LAKE ONTARIO...OUT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT...WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WAS HEADING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 MPH.
ASSUMING NO SHOWERS DEVELOP IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT WORK INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND WE DO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A BREEZE TOOK PLACE AS
WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 10
MPH...WHILE OTHER PLACES WERE CLOSER TO 60...OR EVEN IN THE UPPER
50S DUE TO THIN CLOUDS AND LITTLE OR NO WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE BEFORE DAWN.
SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY ENJOY SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND CU DEVELOP. THERE WAS ALSO SOME STRATUS
WORKING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...IT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST (AROUND 5.5 C/KM). HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL
RAMP UP TO ABOUT 1500 SBCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR
MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL WHICH MEANS SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT. WE WILL INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WIND
APPEARS THE BIGGER THREAT.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS
EVENING...AND WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...COMBINING WITH PWATS WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS SET UP IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD
BET TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
NOW IT WILL PROBABLY NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME FRAME. INITIALLY IT
LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE MIGHT BE A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ONE WAVE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
FORM BY LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY...WESTERN PA AND UP ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FIRST AREAS
TO FEEL THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...WHILE MUGGIER 60S WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT HOLD IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...STILL WARMER
SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE WILL LIKELY POP INTO THE 70S.
MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE COOL SECTORS...GENERALLY AROUND 70 SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 60S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...60 OR LOWER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE
MUCH CLOSER FOR THE 1ST DAY OF MAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FIRST DAY OF
JUNE.
TO THE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH.
CHECKING ANOMALIES...THE PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUE TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850 SOUTHERLY COMPONENT REACHED
THE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE...AND THE 250 WIND (EAST WEST)
COMPONENT NEVER STRAYS THAT MUCH FROM NORMAL. THE 03Z SREFS AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR ALBANY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 3.5
INCHES. THE 00Z GEFS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AVERAGING AROUND 3
INCHES WITH MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND
1.3 INCHES.
FOR NOW OUR QPF WAS BLEND OF THE GEFS/SREF. MORE ABOUT THE QPF CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WAVE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WE CAN STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 50.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH KGFL BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS AND SCT CUMULUS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A MVFR STRATUS DECK
WAS OVER KPOU AS OF 630 AM. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY
AROUND 14Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION LATR TODAY...AND HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF AFTER 21Z...AND INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
30/21Z- 22Z AND 31/03Z-04Z. AT KPOU THE VCSH STARTS AT 23Z WITH
THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 30/23Z TO 31/05Z. AFTER THE THREAT OF
TSTMS...HAVE FORECAST CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...VSBYS SHOULD LOWER EVEN FURTHER...WITH CIGS
LOWERING INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KALB. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL START OFF WITH HIGH RH VALUES TODAY...IN THE 75-90
PERCENT RANGE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...LESS NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY HAPPEN TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WHILE IT NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THIS
TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY EVERYONE WILL END UP WITH WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL...MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING AROUND TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL.
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS
ARE REPLACED BY DRIER AND EVENTUALLY A RETURNS TO WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR
REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ALBANY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADARS STILL DEPICTED NO ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATEST RAP INDICATED THE
SAME IDEA...NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DID HINT AT SOME
THETA-RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND
GFS DID NOT HAVE THIS. AT THIS TIME WE LEANED AGAINST THIS HAPPENING
BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING DOES.
THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS UP ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LAKE ONTARIO...OUT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT...WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WAS HEADING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 MPH.
ASSUMING NO SHOWERS DEVELOP IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT WORK INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND WE DO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A BREEZE TOOK PLACE AS
WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 10
MPH...WHILE OTHER PLACES WERE CLOSER TO 60...OR EVEN IN THE UPPER
50S DUE TO THIN CLOUDS AND LITTLE OR NO WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE BEFORE DAWN.
SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY ENJOY SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND CU DEVELOP. THERE WAS ALSO SOME STRATUS
WORKING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...IT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST (AROUND 5.5 C/KM). HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL
RAMP UP TO ABOUT 1500 SBCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR
MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL WHICH MEANS SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT. WE WILL INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW...WIND
APPEARS THE BIGGER THREAT.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS
EVENING...AND WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...COMBINING WITH PWATS WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS SET UP IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD
BET TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
NOW IT WILL PROBABLY NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME FRAME. INITIALLY IT
LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE MIGHT BE A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ONE WAVE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
FORM BY LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY...WESTERN PA AND UP ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FIRST AREAS
TO FEEL THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...WHILE MUGGIER 60S WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT HOLD IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...LOWER 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...STILL WARMER
SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE WILL LIKELY POP INTO THE 70S.
MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE COOL SECTORS...GENERALLY AROUND 70 SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 60S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...60 OR LOWER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE
MUCH CLOSER FOR THE 1ST DAY OF MAY AS OPPOSED TO THE FIRST DAY OF
JUNE.
TO THE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH.
CHECKING ANOMALIES...THE PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUE TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850 SOUTHERLY COMPONENT REACHED
THE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE...AND THE 250 WIND (EAST WEST)
COMPONENT NEVER STRAYS THAT MUCH FROM NORMAL. THE 03Z SREFS AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR ALBANY...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 3.5
INCHES. THE 00Z GEFS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AVERAGING AROUND 3
INCHES WITH MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND
1.3 INCHES.
FOR NOW OUR QPF WAS BLEND OF THE GEFS/SREF. MORE ABOUT THE QPF CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WAVE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WE CAN STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 50.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY WITH MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS AND SCT CUMULUS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS
MORNING (BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL AT
KPSF/KPOU FOR SOME FOG AND A VFR STRATUS DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD
DUE TO MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LATE IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF AFTER
21Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 30/21Z-22Z AND 31/03Z-04Z. AT KPOU THE VCSH
STARTS AT 23Z WITH THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 30/23Z TO 31/05Z. AFTER
THE THREAT OF TSTMS...HAVE FORECAST CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVES IN.
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS AT
KALB. DURING SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AT ALL
THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA
SUN-MON AM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON AFT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL START OFF WITH HIGH RH VALUES TODAY...IN THE 75-90
PERCENT RANGE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...LESS NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY HAPPEN TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WHILE IT NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THIS
TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY EVERYONE WILL END UP WITH WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL...MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING AROUND TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL.
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS
ARE REPLACED BY DRIER AND EVENTUALLY A RETURNS TO WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THIS WILL LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR
REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND
AND NEW LONDON COUNTY CONNECTICUT AS FOG HAS EXPANDED AND SHOULD
REMAIN DENSE THROUGH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.
THE CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS TO BE HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST/INLAND THE
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST WORDING AS
PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE TWIN FORKS AND NEW LONDON COUNTY.
STRENGTHENING WINDS THOUGH OFF THE DECK MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. HRRR AND NARRE CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHER PROBS OF VSBY BELOW 1 MILE OVER ERN ZONES...WHERE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND TO AT LEAST THE
REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT BEFORE DAY BREAK WITH
RADIATIVE COOLING.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT...LOWER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 60S INVOF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BURN OFF ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. SFC RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE OVER MOST OF THE CWA FROM NYC EAST...
WHILE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SPARK ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND COULD AGAIN SEE GUSTS
20-30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 80-85 INLAND AND IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE SAT EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THEN COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM LATE AT
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PREFER SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DRIER
FRONTAL APPROACH PER NAM/ECMWF VS FASTER/WETTER GFS...AND SO HAVE
SCALED BACK GUIDANCE POP...WITH ONLY CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
INLAND. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
SATURDAY. STRONGEST RIP CURRENTS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION FORECAST...WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS AND AT LEAST
MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG IT...PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF US ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE PASSAGE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO CHC ON TUESDAY. MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF US...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAIN/CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...FAVORING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH. TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL. FRIDAY LIKELY
REMAINS DRY AS WELL WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WELL OFF TO THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LOW STRATUS...300 FT TO 500 FT
WAS ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
CONNECTICUT.
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL CONNECTICUT OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS INTO THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. IFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE
LIKELY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WITH A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR 13Z TOP 14Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR TO
IFR CEILINGS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL VFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
POOR VSBYS FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT IN FOG. DENSE FOG FOR SOME OF
THE WATERS IN EFFECT.
QUIET CONDS THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES
ENHANCED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD THEN HELP
GENERATE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING...SO HAVE
RAISED SCA FOR THE OCEAN AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
OCEAN SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH 5 FT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS HELD THEM
AT 4 FT.
SCA CONDS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WHERE THE CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET. E WINDS OTHERWISE
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH SCA CONDS PROBABLE ON MOST OF THE WATERS.
WINDS THEN SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SWELL MAY KEEP
OCEAN SEAS AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...AND PROBABLY THROUGH
MOST OF WED AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. AS USUAL...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT
OF FLOODING...BUT MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH ANTECEDENT
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
100 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND
AND NEW LONDON COUNTY CONNECTICUT AS FOG HAS EXPANDED AND SHOULD
REMAIN DENSE THROUGH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.
THE CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS TO BE HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST/INLAND THE
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST WORDING AS
PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE TWIN FORKS AND NEW LONDON COUNTY.
STRENGTHENING WINDS THOUGH OFF THE DECK MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. HRRR AND NARRE CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHER PROBS OF VSBY BELOW 1 MILE OVER ERN ZONES...WHERE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND TO AT LEAST THE
REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT BEFORE DAY BREAK WITH
RADIATIVE COOLING.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT...LOWER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 60S INVOF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BURN OFF ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. SFC RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE OVER MOST OF THE CWA FROM NYC EAST...
WHILE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SPARK ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND COULD AGAIN SEE GUSTS
20-30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 80-85 INLAND AND IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE SAT EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THEN COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM LATE AT
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PREFER SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DRIER
FRONTAL APPROACH PER NAM/ECMWF VS FASTER/WETTER GFS...AND SO HAVE
SCALED BACK GUIDANCE POP...WITH ONLY CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
INLAND. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
SATURDAY. STRONGEST RIP CURRENTS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION FORECAST...WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS AND AT LEAST
MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG IT...PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF US ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE PASSAGE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO CHC ON TUESDAY. MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF US...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAIN/CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...FAVORING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH. TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL. FRIDAY LIKELY
REMAINS DRY AS WELL WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WELL OFF TO THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND BELOW IN LOW
STRATUS/FOG...ESPECIALLY KISP AND KGON. MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER
WEST...IFR POTENTIAL LATE AT KJFK AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOR OTHER
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 13Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT AFTN THROUGH
SAT EVE WITH MVFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING HAS UNCERTAINTY AND CATEGORICAL CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY
2-4 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...GUSTY S WINDS UP TO 20 KT SAT
NIGHT BUT PERHAPS AT MORE OCCASIONAL FREQUENCY. MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
POOR VSBYS FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT IN FOG. DENSE FOG FOR SOME OF
THE WATERS IN EFFECT.
QUIET CONDS THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES
ENHANCED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD THEN HELP
GENERATE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING...SO HAVE
RAISED SCA FOR THE OCEAN AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
OCEAN SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH 5 FT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS HELD THEM
AT 4 FT.
SCA CONDS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WHERE THE CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET. E WINDS OTHERWISE
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH SCA CONDS PROBABLE ON MOST OF THE WATERS.
WINDS THEN SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SWELL MAY KEEP
OCEAN SEAS AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...AND PROBABLY THROUGH
MOST OF WED AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. AS USUAL...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT
OF FLOODING...BUT MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH ANTECEDENT
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
843 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRM RADAR TRENDS...WITH DRY AIRMASS
WRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ERN HALF.
RADAR SHOWING SCT`D SHOWERS AFFECTING COASTLINE. HRRR AND NAM
SUGGEST WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL WORK WESTWARD...MOVING WELL
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFT FROM
COASTAL/EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING TO WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXPECTED EASTERN AREAS...SOME
HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW T-STORMS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT HOURLY POP TRENDS SHOW THIS WELL. ANTICIPATING SIMILAR
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VS. YESTERDAY...88-90 INTERIOR...84-87 EASTERN
AREAS AND COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
VICINTY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA VICINITY KGNV
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS
AND 3-5 FT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 68 90 68 / 30 10 40 40
SSI 83 73 83 73 / 40 20 20 0
JAX 86 69 88 71 / 40 10 30 0
SGJ 84 72 84 71 / 40 20 20 0
GNV 88 67 90 68 / 30 10 50 30
OCF 89 68 91 69 / 40 10 50 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BLANKET THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ARE OCCURRING FURTHER
EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DUE TO THE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS IS THE AREA WE
WILL BE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NEAR THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST DAY 1
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO SHELBYVILLE LINE WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE LATER
TODAY. BASED ON HRRR FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING FORECAST...BUT OVERALL TREND IS RIGHT ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS ILLINOIS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON AN AXIS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THAT LLJ WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING PRECIP WATER
VALUES INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR ONE
HOUR IS GENERALLY 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
THE HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS. SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER, BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM. PEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REACH TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
MUCAPE SE OF I-55, WHICH WILL INCREASE RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STORMS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW SE OF I-55 COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODIC RAIN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 AROUND GALESBURG,
WITH LOW 80S FOR 80S SE OF I-70 WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING TO HELP BOOST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE LOW PROJECTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS FAVORING A
POSITION IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HEAVIER
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE EVENING WITH THIS TRACK...WHERE CATEGORICAL POP`S WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WITH THE CHANGES TO THE TRACK...HAVE
HAD TO RE-ORIENT THE ORIGINAL POP GRIDS TO FAVOR A MORE WEST-EAST
TAPERING OF THE RAIN VS A CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS...POP`S
WILL LINGER EAST OF I-57 PAST MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE IN AREAS FROM EFFINGHAM
NORTHEAST TO DANVILLE. STIFF NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL DRIVE IN MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FAR EAST DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE DEPARTING LOW.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND WILL NOT BE IN ANY PARTICULAR HURRY TO LEAVE. GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT...THEY BASICALLY KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT 80S SHOULD RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT THE KILX TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL
CONSENSUS BRINGS THE RAIN TO AN END AT KPIA BY AROUND 23Z...THEN
FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 05Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS WINDS SWING
AROUND TO THE N/NE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BLANKET THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ARE OCCURRING FURTHER
EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DUE TO THE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS IS THE AREA WE
WILL BE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NEAR THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST DAY 1
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO SHELBYVILLE LINE WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE LATER
TODAY. BASED ON HRRR FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING FORECAST...BUT OVERALL TREND IS RIGHT ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS ILLINOIS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON AN AXIS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THAT LLJ WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING PRECIP WATER
VALUES INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR ONE
HOUR IS GENERALLY 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
THE HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS. SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER, BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM. PEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REACH TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
MUCAPE SE OF I-55, WHICH WILL INCREASE RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STORMS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW SE OF I-55 COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODIC RAIN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 AROUND GALESBURG,
WITH LOW 80S FOR 80S SE OF I-70 WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING TO HELP BOOST TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE LOW PROJECTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS FAVORING A
POSITION IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HEAVIER
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE EVENING WITH THIS TRACK...WHERE CATEGORICAL POP`S WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WITH THE CHANGES TO THE TRACK...HAVE
HAD TO RE-ORIENT THE ORIGINAL POP GRIDS TO FAVOR A MORE WEST-EAST
TAPERING OF THE RAIN VS A CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS...POP`S
WILL LINGER EAST OF I-57 PAST MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE IN AREAS FROM EFFINGHAM
NORTHEAST TO DANVILLE. STIFF NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL DRIVE IN MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FAR EAST DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE DEPARTING LOW.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND WILL NOT BE IN ANY PARTICULAR HURRY TO LEAVE. GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT...THEY BASICALLY KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT 80S SHOULD RETURN BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINAL SITES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AT TIMES.
IFR/LIFR CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES AT LEAST
THIS MORNING, BUT POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN IL LATER TODAY AND IT PULLS MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS INTO IL. PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN VFR COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN RAIN AND STORMS TODAY, BUT OVERALL CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THE LOW
CROSSES SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTS AROUND 3OKT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 06-08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 508 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP ON
MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE SPRINKLES
TO LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE LEFT IN THE AREA TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THEN THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAINLY DRY/UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS IN WAKE OF AN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST OF A BUILDING
NORTHERN/WESTERN GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGE AXIS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ALONG TRAILING 700 MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS NEAR A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY AND STALLED SECONDARY
CIRCULATION. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING (SAVE
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME GRADUAL EROSION IS
EXPECTED). THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL LOSS/TEMP FALLS TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING AS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL THEN UNFOLD THROUGH MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS A CUT OFF UPPER PV ANOMALY WILL BE MEANDERING
SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT
LEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE MEAGER.
SOME SUBTLE VEERING IN FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION TO WORK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OHIO/NORTHEAST INDIANA. WITH SOME
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND PARENT CUT-OFF CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT LOW END SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN SUCH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY. WEAK GRADIENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT WEAK LAKE BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE POSSIBLY ALLOWING WEAK
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH WITH MORE
PROMINENCE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF PV
ANOMALY/GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND A BIT MORE SUBDUED MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WARMING TREND MAY BE A BIT TEMPERED. WEAK STEERING FLOW TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE-TOPPING WAVE JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. OTHERWISE...PATTERN DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS GIVEN EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF WEAK BOUNDARY
WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINING
LOCKED ACROSS THE REGION WHILE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. SOME SMALL BREAKS NOTED WITHIN CLOUD DECK
WHILE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOUDS EXTEND FROM NEAR KBEH TO KLAN.
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AT KSBN AND UNTIL MID MORNING
MONDAY AT KFWA. HAVE PUSHED BACK VFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN BY A FEW
HOURS PER LATEST GUIDANCE WHILE HOLDING ONTO MVFR THROUGH 16Z AT
KFWA. MIXING MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTRATION SHOULD
HELP BREAK UP CLOUD DECK AND BRING CLEARING TO TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
INDIANA WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
IN LIGHT OF WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND EXPANDING CONVN FM ERN IL THROUGH CNTRL IN AND IN REFLECTION OF
NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE WILL HOIST FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF ERN
ZONES...GENERALLY INVOF AND EAST OF I-69.
VIS IMAGERY AND MESONET OBS INDICATE A LOOSELY DEFINED
OUTFLW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAD DVLPG FM NR KLAF TO KDFI
AHD OF EJECTING POTENT SRN STREAM SW LIFTING NEWD OUT OF MO
BOOTHILL. NR TERM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDNL UPTICK AND
CONSOLIDATION OF ALG AND SOUTH OF A GUS>FWA>DFI LINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUS GIVEN GOES SNDG DRIVED PWS APCHG 1.8" AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING FORCED ASCENT AHD OF APCHG UPR WAVE SEE LTL REASON WHY
HEAVY RAIN RATES IN CONVN WILL NOT MATERIALIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE
E-SE TO WI/IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT SHOULD DROP SE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY WITH VORT MAX/SFC WAVE OVER ARKANSAS LIFTING NE
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. GENERALLY WK INSTABILITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER LIMIT HEATING HWVR
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE FROPA WILL
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS... THOUGH EXPECT ALL WILL REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS GIVEN
LACK OF SGFNT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES IN WARM/MOIST AIRMASS PSBL ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR LEVEL JET DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TONIGHT.
00Z MODELS HAVE HEAVY QPF IN OUR AREA BUT DIFFER ON LOCATION.
PREFER NAM/ECMWF WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS CLOSER TO FRONT
ACROSS NE INDIANA/SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER NW
AXIS FCST BY GFS. IT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA RECENTLY
AND RIVER FLOWS GENERALLY RUNNING BLO NORMAL IN OUR CWA SO WHILE
SOME FLOODING MAY BE PSBL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS... CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE L70S NW TO THE L80S SE... WITH TEMPS FALLING AFTER
FROPA... ESPECIALLY NW WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CDFNT. WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD TEMPER CAA WITH LOWS
FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S NW TO THE U50S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS WILL EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SFC WAVE WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TRACK. WHILE MODELS DO VARY ON POSITIONING OF
REMNANTS OF WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/RAINSHOWERS...THEY AT LEAST HAVE COME INTO SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT
TO NUDGED POPS UPWARDS MAINLY SE AND NE SUNDAY MORNING. BAROCLINIC
ZONE MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT SE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT CHC POPS
IN SE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF SUNDAY MORNING TO SOME SPOTS. WITH PWATS
SLOWLY DECREASING AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE MODELS HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS MORE SUBDUED QPF GRIDS FROM SUPERBLEND OF MODELS. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...MODEL GUIDANCE TANKED HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. TREND HAS BEEN
COLDER AND WILL CONTINUE IT AS A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE. THIS COMBINED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY END TO MAY.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PHASES WITH REMNANTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY ENERGY. THIS
WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS HERE AND THERE THURS INTO FRIDAY BUT NO REAL CLEAR
SIGNALS AT THIS TIME FOR MORE FOCUSED CHANCES AS WHAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY BE DIURNALLY BASED. WILL STICK WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDS TO BEING WILL DETERIORIATE QUICKLY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHD OF POTENT NEWD EJECTING SW OUT OF THE MO BOOTHILL. EXPANDING
CONVN FM ERN IL INTO CNTRL IN SHLD STEADILY BRIDGE NWD THROUGH THIS
AFTN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LL WAA ALTHOUGH DO XPC A MORE
SUBDUED THUNDER THREAT INVOF KSBN AS SFC CYCLONE TRACKS WELL SOUTH
THROUGH CNTRL IN. OTRWS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS XPCD TO DVLP THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN DVLPS ACRS THE TERMINALS. IN
ADDN...WINDS XPCD TO VEER NERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERHEAD W/SFC GUSTS TO 25KTS LIKELY
AFT 06Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ009-017-018-022>027-
032-033.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
024.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
839 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.
WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.
GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TAFS. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KMCK. WILL INVESTIGATE THIS FURTHER
FOR THE 6Z TAFS. IF LOWER CEILINGS/VIS. DO DEVELOP...WILL LAST
INTO MID MORNING FOR KMCK. IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF...KGLD WILL HAVE STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.
WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.
GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TAFS. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR KMCK. WILL INVESTIGATE THIS FURTHER
FOR THE 6Z TAFS. IF LOWER CEILINGS/VIS. DO DEVELOP...WILL LAST
INTO MID MORNING FOR KMCK. IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF...KGLD WILL HAVE STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID TERM
AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS STARTED OUT WELL AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SO ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN GOING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
MORE OF THE FORCING GOES NORTH AND THE LEAST ELEVATED CINH IS ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THAT FORCING AND WEAKNESS IN THE
INHIBITION SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS BUT AM ALSO ANTICIPATING FOG.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES. CONSIDERING THE MORNING STRATUS AND WINDS COMING
MORE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...AM SIDING TOWARD COOLER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. AS ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH
COMES UP AGAIN AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT THAT WARMUP AGAIN WILL BE TEMPERED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUT/CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DOES
SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
IN GENERAL LEE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME STRONGER THAN
OTHERS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AND WET ONCE AGAIN. KNOW IT IS FAR OUT...BUT THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST .05 ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS IT.
SO A WET AND NOT VERY HOT PATTERN LOOK IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
STRATUS DECK WITH HEIGHTS 1200-2500 AGL IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CLEARING OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGLD AND KMCK BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CLOUD FREE SKY OTHER THAN SOME VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS IS PROBABLE AS SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, A COOLER OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTS UPPER 40S TO ABOUT 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND RAP13 ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AFTER 9
UTC, HOWEVER THE RAP 13 DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER WEST THAN CENTRAL
KANSAS VERY PATCHY COVERAGE, WHILE THE NAM , WHICH IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE, EXTENDS AREAS OF FOG MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL
GFS MOS, BUT MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING, SURFACE WINDS
WILL AGAIN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83-COLORADO BORDER CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL PERHAPS TOO RAPIDLY
SURGES DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE SUNDAY AND MID 60 BEYOND
THAT. NAM IS THE ONLY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD BRING SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM SE COLORADO INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AS OF THIS TIME NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ARW/NMM ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME/AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PROCESS TO HANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KS,
DRYING OUT THE STRATUS LAYER WITH TIME AS SURFACE WARMING INCREASES.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO
WELL BELOW 12 KNOTS AND VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GCK TERMINAL BY 15-18 UTC SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MINOR FLOODING ALONG CROOKED CREEK IN MEADE COUNTY CONTINUED THIS
AFTNEROON. HOWEVER THE STREAM HAS CROSSED BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE
RECENTLY AND THE WARNING IS CANCELED. UPSTREAM WATER ACROSS
CREEKS IN NORTHERN FORD AND SOUTHERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES COULD ADD
TO THE FLOW ON THE PAWNEE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO TWO AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REACTIONS DOWNSTREAM ON THE PAWNEE TOWARDS
LARNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 77 58 83 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 49 79 59 84 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 54 82 60 90 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 49 79 60 87 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 45 76 56 82 / 0 0 30 30
P28 49 77 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
HYDROLOGY...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO IM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW AND CROSS OUR REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME... ON THE SURFACE... ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN BY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
STRATUS DECK WITH HEIGHTS 1200-2500 AGL IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CLEARING OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGLD AND KMCK BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE JET. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR ARE VERY WARM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO NEAR 160E. ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
AROUND THE GLOBE, AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A
KELVIN WAVE IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC, WHERE HURRICANE ANDRES HAS DEVELOPED. THIS KELVIN WAVE LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
SHOULD REACH THE INDIAN OCEAN BY MID JUNE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE COHERENT SIGNAL AND ITS
EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE SIGNAL AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR 100W AND THE CONSISTENT PROPAGATION SPEED OF KELVIN
WAVES AROUND THE GLOBE IN RECENT WEEKS. AS SUCH, ENHANCED TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON
PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE PROBABLY EXTENDING INTO
PHASE THREE THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM ARE CORRELATED
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND A TENDENCY FOR TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH TROUGH IN
CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAINTENANCE OF RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SEEMS LIKE A MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION THAN THE TROUGHING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.
IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN
KANSAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS
EVENING. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED RAPIDLY THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAD
INVADED NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY 07Z, BUT CLEARING WAS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTHERN KANSAS SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AND LIKELY WILL BE GONE FROM ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN
ON FRIDAY EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AFTER THE STRATUS ERODES. NORTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS,
AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND INCREASING FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF
LEE TROUGHING. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY, AND AS MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE
AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WILL BE JUST EAST OF A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BASED ON TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS 850MB AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN 10 TO
NEAR 13C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. LATE DAY
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER, HOWEVER THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY APPROACH FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES. NAM AND GFS DIFFERS ON WHERE THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL BE LOCATED MONDAY NIGHT
SO AT THIS TIME WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND NOT MENTION
PRECIPITATION JUST YET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON 850MB
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM +12C AND
NEAR +16C. 850MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BASED ON THESE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR HIGHS BOTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM 85 TO NEAR 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
BE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEK ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIODS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEPS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AS THEY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. HYS WILL BEGIN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW
MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC AND GCK AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 48 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 69 49 80 59 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 71 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 71 49 80 60 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 69 45 77 56 / 0 0 0 30
P28 71 49 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.
HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW AND CROSS OUR REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME... ON THE SURFACE... ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN BY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KMCK AND
KGLD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
TONIGHT:
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HRRR AND ARW GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION
TOWARDS 06Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS DESCRIBED BY THE NAM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS SOLUTION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN AND INSTABILITY BECOMES
MEDIOCRE TO NON-EXISTENT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
CAPE IS MARGINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL STORMS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER
AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE.
TOMORROW:
A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH POPS AT ZERO
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. EXPECTING
VALUES IN THE 68-71F RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
BY DUSK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN A QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER-WISE DURING
THE FIRST FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. EAST OF THE
TROUGH, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN.
BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HOLDS TROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR EVENING AND NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE FOCUSED MORE OVER NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
REMAIN BETTER CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, KEEPING
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED.
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY, THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AT MIDNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS
015-020 IN THE REGION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY 16Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
MPH WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING AND WILL BECOME EAST
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 77 57 83 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 49 79 58 84 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 52 83 59 87 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 50 80 59 85 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 46 77 55 82 / 0 0 10 10
P28 49 77 56 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUTHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.
HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH IT WARMS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLE WELL ON THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH
SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MODELS DO NOT START OUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE NAM WAS DOING
THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO WARM. OVERALL THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO VERY DEEP DRY LAYER WITH ONLY THE VERY LOW LEVELS
HAVING ANY MOISTURE. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RETURN FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.
MODELS HINTING AT...MAINLY THE NAM...ABOUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADING IN CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE
FAR EAST WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE BEST COOLING
CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING IN WITH SOME MINOR
HEIGHT RISES.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE
EAST OF IT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW
MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT. DURING THE
NIGHT MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CINH...WITH THE WEAKEST CAP LATER IN THE
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP THE IT
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL HAVE HIGH SILENT POPS. WILL
KEEP HIGH SILENT/DRY POPS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLS WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY OR NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND DIRECTION DOES
NOT BECOME DOWNSLOPE EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR WEST. NEWER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LITTLE WARMER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WILL USE
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE IN MAKING THOSE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE
NIGHT...DOES LOOK LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS.
MONDAY...LEE TROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND IS RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALOFT THE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING RATHER WARM BUT
BREAKABLE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. STORM MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW. AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST.
NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL HINDER THE WARMUP A
LITTLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN WARMER. CONSIDERING THAT PLUS
RECENT RAINS...WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENS/AMPLIFIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH A PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE/SOME BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KMCK AND
KGLD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CU DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE STORMS IS TOUGH TO DISCERN SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION
OF VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN SETTING UP. UNLESS RAIN DIRECTLY AFFECTS A
TAF SITE THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO REMAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT ANY TAF AIRPORT. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A VCSH IN PLACE. LATER ON SUNDAY...THE
NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
STILL WAITING FOR THE BETTER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS NOW BACKED OFF ITS
EASTERNMOST SPROUTINGS SO HAVE GONE BACK TO MAINLY A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE T/TD ONES PER
THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST STILL HOLDING
SOME INFLUENCE OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SPECIFICALLY...
READINGS ARE NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST PLACES ALONG WITH SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HELPED TO LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND NOW ALL THAT IS GONE...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN.
A ROGUE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR AND INCOMING NAM12...ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CLIMATOLOGY... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
AREA SHORTLY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
AND IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS MORE
INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST AND
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND NO
CAPPING...WILL NOT RULE IT OUT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BROUGHT HIGH
CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR ALOFT TO
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR JUST THAT FROM SPC
WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS FOUND JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. ANY
LATE DAY STORM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE UPDATED GRIDS...INCLUDING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T/TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS...
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A
TOUCHED UP SET OF ZONES...MAINLY REMOVING THE MORNING FOG
WORDING...HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE STILL REPORTING VIS BELOW 2 MILES. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO TAKE OUT FOG IN THE WESTERN
CWA...AND THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SO LEFT
IN FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. ALSO...RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY...MOVING NNE. ALSO
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE EARLIER ONSET OF
CONVECTION. ONCE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE
DATABASE...LOADED THESE INTO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AFTER RAINS IMPACTED SECTIONS OF THE CWA YESTERDAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE HAS LED TO DECENT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC CONUS WILL SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI...WILL REACH WESTERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...THEN
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY. STILL
FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
TRAVERSE WESTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...CENTRAL KY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF KY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 0Z MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...CONTINUED STRONG WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER HIGH HUMIDITY/WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY DON/T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINERS AND DECENT
LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE BEST
FORCING OF THE INCOMING FRONT. BEGAN INCREASING POPS AGAIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY AS SUN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ONCE
MORE...PEAKING AS THE FRONT BEGINS PASSING OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH MUCH MORE DRYING ALOFT AND DECENT CAPE VALUES
IN THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT LI/S WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -6C RANGE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
ALL IN ALL...EXPECT SOME DECENT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO
SPC/S MARGINAL RISK OVER THIS SAME AREA FOR SUNDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OUT FOR. HOWEVER...DID NOTE THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH HYDRO CONCERNS...UNLESS STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SAME LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE NW
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70 TO LOW 80 RANGE FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /COOLEST IN THE
WEST/. OVERALL...SUPERBLEND AND GFS WERE THE MODELS OF CHOICE DURING
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PRETTY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
EXIT THE OH VALLEY AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT DOES WASH OUT A BIT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS BUT WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACHING COOLER AIR MASS. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND ALONG THE VA/KY BORDER AND SO
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAX CHANCE OCCURRING EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION WITH THE LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.
BY THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...A WEAK WAVE
OVERHEAD...AND THE MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY...A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP FRO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY
CONVECTION. STILL KEPT CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION BUT DID
NUDGE POPS BELOW A BIT DURING THE FEW DAYS WITH LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...BESIDES THE EXITING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...NO DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A DEFINITE CHANCE
OF PRECIP OR AT LEAST THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IS
SUCH THAT NOTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS DISCERNIBLE. FOR
THIS FACT...DID STAY RATHER CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CU DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE STORMS IS TOUGH TO DISCERN SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION
OF VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN SETTING UP. UNLESS RAIN DIRECTLY AFFECTS A
TAF SITE THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO REMAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT ANY TAF AIRPORT. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A VCSH IN PLACE. LATER ON SUNDAY...THE
NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST STILL HOLDING
SOME INFLUENCE OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SPECIFICALLY...
READINGS ARE NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST PLACES ALONG WITH SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HELPED TO LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND NOW ALL THAT IS GONE...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN.
A ROGUE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR AND INCOMING NAM12...ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CLIMATOLOGY... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
AREA SHORTLY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
AND IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS MORE
INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST AND
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND NO
CAPPING...WILL NOT RULE IT OUT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BROUGHT HIGH
CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR ALOFT TO
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR JUST THAT FROM SPC
WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS FOUND JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. ANY
LATE DAY STORM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE UPDATED GRIDS...INCLUDING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T/TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS...
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A
TOUCHED UP SET OF ZONES...MAINLY REMOVING THE MORNING FOG
WORDING...HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SUN BEGINS TO RISE. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE STILL REPORTING VIS BELOW 2 MILES. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO TAKE OUT FOG IN THE WESTERN
CWA...AND THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SO LEFT
IN FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. ALSO...RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY...MOVING NNE. ALSO
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE EARLIER ONSET OF
CONVECTION. ONCE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE
DATABASE...LOADED THESE INTO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AFTER RAINS IMPACTED SECTIONS OF THE CWA YESTERDAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE HAS LED TO DECENT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC CONUS WILL SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI...WILL REACH WESTERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...THEN
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY. STILL
FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
TRAVERSE WESTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...CENTRAL KY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF KY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 0Z MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...CONTINUED STRONG WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER HIGH HUMIDITY/WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY DON/T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINERS AND DECENT
LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE BEST
FORCING OF THE INCOMING FRONT. BEGAN INCREASING POPS AGAIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY AS SUN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ONCE
MORE...PEAKING AS THE FRONT BEGINS PASSING OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH MUCH MORE DRYING ALOFT AND DECENT CAPE VALUES
IN THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT LI/S WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -6C RANGE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
ALL IN ALL...EXPECT SOME DECENT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO
SPC/S MARGINAL RISK OVER THIS SAME AREA FOR SUNDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OUT FOR. HOWEVER...DID NOTE THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH HYDRO CONCERNS...UNLESS STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SAME LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE NW
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70 TO LOW 80 RANGE FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /COOLEST IN THE
WEST/. OVERALL...SUPERBLEND AND GFS WERE THE MODELS OF CHOICE DURING
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PRETTY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
EXIT THE OH VALLEY AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT DOES WASH OUT A BIT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS BUT WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACHING COOLER AIR MASS. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND ALONG THE VA/KY BORDER AND SO
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAX CHANCE OCCURRING EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION WITH THE LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.
BY THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...A WEAK WAVE
OVERHEAD...AND THE MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY...A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP FRO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY
CONVECTION. STILL KEPT CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION BUT DID
NUDGE POPS BELOW A BIT DURING THE FEW DAYS WITH LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...BESIDES THE EXITING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...NO DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A DEFINITE CHANCE
OF PRECIP OR AT LEAST THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IS
SUCH THAT NOTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS DISCERNIBLE. FOR
THIS FACT...DID STAY RATHER CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ACROSS EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SO
FAR HAD LITTLE IMPACT. GIVEN THAT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THESE DEVELOPING STORMS IS UNKNOWN...CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF
VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY EXPECTED. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20KT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING...CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE BEST INSTABILITY AND
HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
TAKING HOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ONCE MORE. UNLESS RAIN
DIRECTLY AFFECTS A TAF SITE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG
TO REMAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
650 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS OF 08Z ARE FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THEY
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 09Z AND MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY AT SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z NMM AND ARW WRF RUNS DEVELOP SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY...AND MAINTAIN GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM LIKE THE WAY TO GO. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH HEATING WE WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MAY
PUSH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REALLY NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FROM THE 00Z MODELS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
THE FORECAST IS DRY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
COOL...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...AND WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM PERIOD
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS MAKES. THOUGH THERE WERE HINTS PREVIOUSLY
THAT IT MIGHT HAPPEN...THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED MUCH
DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF. THE
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE DOMINANCE NOW AS A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA INITIALLY. AS A WRN CONUS TROF PERSISTS
IN VARYING DEGREES ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME
VERSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE NRN STREAM REMAINING
ACTIVE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE ERN CONUS RIDGE
APPEARED TO BE FAR AWAY ENOUGH FROM THE PAH FORECAST AREA (THE
ATLANTIC COAST) AS TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL BE WEAK.
BY THU...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT
OVER OUR REGION...AND THEREFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE MADE
AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISAPPEAR THU NIGHT..THEN RETURN FOR FRI
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE.
IN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MID WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
STILL REACH ABOUT 80 TUE...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 60 INITIALLY TO ABOUT
65.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TS MENTION IN TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES. THERE COULD EASILY BE MORE THAN ONE STORM AT LEAST
IN THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN THE EVENING IN
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A SURFACE
LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF ALL SITES...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN. CEILINGS WILL DROP FROM MVFR BEHIND
THE CONVECTION TO IFR...IF NOT LIFR...OVERNIGHT.
TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GENERAL TRENDS IN CONVECTION...WINDS
AND CEILINGS...BUT EXACT TIMING MAY VARY AT EACH SITE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS OF 08Z ARE FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THEY
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 09Z AND MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY AT SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z NMM AND ARW WRF RUNS DEVELOP SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY...AND MAINTAIN GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM LIKE THE WAY TO GO. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH HEATING WE WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MAY
PUSH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REALLY NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FROM THE 00Z MODELS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
THE FORECAST IS DRY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
COOL...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...AND WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM PERIOD
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS MAKES. THOUGH THERE WERE HINTS PREVIOUSLY
THAT IT MIGHT HAPPEN...THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED MUCH
DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF. THE
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE DOMINANCE NOW AS A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA INITIALLY. AS A WRN CONUS TROF PERSISTS
IN VARYING DEGREES ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME
VERSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE NRN STREAM REMAINING
ACTIVE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE ERN CONUS RIDGE
APPEARED TO BE FAR AWAY ENOUGH FROM THE PAH FORECAST AREA (THE
ATLANTIC COAST) AS TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL BE WEAK.
BY THU...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT
OVER OUR REGION...AND THEREFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE MADE
AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISAPPEAR THU NIGHT..THEN RETURN FOR FRI
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE.
IN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MID WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
STILL REACH ABOUT 80 TUE...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 60 INITIALLY TO ABOUT
65.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
VFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK COLD
FRONT DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES, CEILINGS WILL
WORK DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER
MONTHS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BROAD
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NOW LOOK MAINLY DRY
AND A LITTLE COOLER. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COOLER.
POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDER. LINGERING
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST
INTO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGHS RETREATS TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
COME A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL INCH BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
VFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK COLD
FRONT DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES, CEILINGS WILL
WORK DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 81 63 81 / 40 20 10 20
MLU 66 82 63 80 / 50 40 30 30
DEQ 55 78 59 78 / 40 20 10 20
TXK 60 79 61 79 / 40 20 10 20
ELD 62 80 60 79 / 40 30 20 30
TYR 62 80 61 81 / 40 20 10 20
GGG 62 80 62 81 / 40 20 10 20
LFK 65 82 63 83 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
624 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
624 PM UPDATE...THUS FAR THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK...NORTHERN SOMERSET...AND NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE AND HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THAT ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT ENTER THE CWA FROM THE
WEST COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS DIMINISHING. THE BEST SFC BASED AND MU CAPES AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE LATER THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT
1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS OF 50+
KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE FIRST BATCH
ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATTM. THE
SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION.
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS WELL TO ENHANCE
THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH FLOODING IS LOW
DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS FOR
NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS STANDPOINT.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN W/PRECIP JUST IN
THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR
AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT
STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY
RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF
DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES
CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOING TO MVFR THIS EVENING
W/SOME TSTMS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND
BHB, VFR GOING TO MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBNG/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN STEADY
RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD...WITH
KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN IMPACTED BY IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. THE WIND AND SEAS HAVE
FINALLY COME UP AND THE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. THE WIND WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY
W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP.
SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...RAHE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
407 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT
1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS OF 50+
KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE FIRST BATCH
ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATTM. THE
SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION.
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS WELL TO ENHANCE
THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH FLOODING IS LOW
DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS FOR
NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS STANDPOINT.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN W/PRECIP JUST IN
THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR
AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT
STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY
RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF
DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES
CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOING TO MVFR THIS EVENING
W/SOME TSTMS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND
BHB, VFR GOING TO MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBNG/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN STEADY
RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD...WITH
KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN IMPACTED BY IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME
UP HOLDING AT 10 KTS W/SEAS AROUND 2 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP LATER THIS EVENING W/WINDS HITTING 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS
AT 25 KT ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS
ON SUNDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP.
SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...RAHE
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: WE BEEFED UP CLD CVR OVR DOWNEAST...E CNTRL AND NE
PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO ERLY MORN
HRS SAT WI THE THE ADVC OF MARINE ST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
WERE UPDATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT BASED ON MDNGT
OBSVD TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 5 AM.
PREV DISC: CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.
FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LI`S DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING 5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1231 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL CONTINUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR ALL MAINE COASTAL AREAS AND
MOST ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AS WELL. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF DENSE FOG
HAD DEVEPED ALONG THE COAST AND HAD PUSHED INLAND. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES.
720 PM UPDATE: OCEAN STRATUS/FOG HAS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND TO THE
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AT THIS TIME. MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR
PLACEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FURTHER INLAND. ALSO MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE MARINE STRATUS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE COAST. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT DEPICTION BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. LEANING
HEAVILY ON THE NARRE AND HRRR FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COASTAL ME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPWM WILL SEE
STRATUS SOONEST...WITH ALL COASTAL AREAS LIKELY SEEING LOW CIGS BY
00Z. THRU THE NIGHT THIS WILL CREEP INLAND...AND SHOULD ROUGHLY
MATCH THE CURRENT SEA BREEZE FRONT OUTLINE. WINDS SHIFTING TO SWLY
WILL KEEP STRATUS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE GREAT BAY AREA AND E IN
SERN NH...WHILE ALLOWING IT TO PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG AND KWVL
IN CENTRAL ME.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOW CLOUDS...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER IN FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT THIS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS AGGRESSIVE ON
VSBYS BELOW 1/2 SM...WHILE NARRE IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR.
SREF VSBYS PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT FOR LESS THAN
1 SM VSBY POINT TOWARDS SOME FOG MORE LIKELY THAT NOT. SO WILL
HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SAT. THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IT WILL DELAY IN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. SREF
CALIBRATED SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES PEAK AROUND 21Z ACROSS THE
FAR NRN ZONES. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIR ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL
ADD GUSTY WINDS TO THESE ZONES...AND DELAY TSTMS FOR COAST UNTIL
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND SLOW FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH TRAINING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME WATER
ISSUES. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP ANY STORMS TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED...BUT A RENEWAL OF DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY SUN AS THE DAY HEATS UP AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAY OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS COMING
TO AN END IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DENSE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY SOUTH HOWEVER AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT. LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOL (MID 50S)
WHILE MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN CLEARS OUT AND WARMS INTO THE
UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE 60S.
THE PROXIMITY OF OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS A STEADY
STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY TO BE HAD BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHTNING OFFSHORE. FOLLOWING THIS A STOUT CUTOFF SHORT WAVE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS AS MARINE STRATUS INVADES THE AREA. BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z
MOST SITES SHOULD BE IFR OR LOWER. KAUG MAY TAKE A COUPLE EXTRA
HOURS FOR LOW CIGS TO WORK INLAND...BUT BY 03Z IFR IS EXPECTED.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. GUSTY SW WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT
INTO SUN FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSTMS IS FOR
KHIE SAT EVENING.
LONG TERM...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT. COOL WATERS SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT BY LATE
SAT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER.
LONG TERM...WAVES DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
SEAS RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WETTING RAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ019>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$ ..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MUCH COOLER AIRMASS NOW
FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND MUCH EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. LAGGING BEHIND OFF
THE DECK FRONTAL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RER UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS RAIN AXIS...WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SPREADING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MERGER AND DEVELOPING OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVENING RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...STEADY SOUTHWARD PUSH TO CURRENT RAIN AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER IMPRESSIVE (FOR THE
SEASON) SHORTWAVE TROUGH MERGER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FORCING THIS RAIN SHIELD TO STALL AND INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR...BUT HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY TAKING THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...ENDING ALL RAINS
OVERNIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT...SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH STILL DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND JUST GOTTA
SIDE WITH THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (ESSENTIALLY
IGNORING ALL STRAIGHT MOS GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THAT GIVES MID
30S/LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...NEGATING ANY MENTION OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT. READINGS SHOULD BE A TOUCH CHILLER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. EVEN HERE...MAINTENANCE OF
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A NEED FOR
A HEADLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEK/COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH BULK OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JUST CLIPPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. UNSEASONABLY STRONG
(FOR LATE MAY) 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (850MB 0C ISOTHERM CREEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR).
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL SLIDE MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY...
WHILE NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG IT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING...KEEPING A DECENT NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING GETS ORGANIZED
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE "BUBBLE" IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO. THIS WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THICKER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (COULD BE CLOSE FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES SO THAT IS ONE AREA
WORTH WATCHING). WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AROUND 60 PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER).
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY STARTING
THE NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S HAVE A GOOD BIT OF ROOM TO DROP. COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING...WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING/COVERAGE WOULD STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER WITH A
MENTION OF FROST BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MONDAY...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 60S
(BUT STILL 4-8F OFF EARLY JUNE NORMALS). WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SPOTS.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RECOVER (MORE 70S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SLIDES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
OVERHEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH...EXITING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DO THE
SAME...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A BROKEN/SCATTERED CIRRUS DECK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HOIST SCA/S FOR THIS AREA...LETTING OTHERS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS
REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE LAKE HURON SCA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...BERGER/DE
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FAIRLY SOON ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS DRIER AIR PER 00Z INL RAOB MOVES AND SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA. REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. EXPECT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE DRIER PBL AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE MOVES ACROSS.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.
COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION AND
IFR CIGS AT SAW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LEADING TO A GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. THERE MAY BE SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT SAW...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN. LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME. WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST. STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.
APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TEENS
MONDAY.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-13KTS DURING THE
DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE AT 15-20 KT.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15-20 KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Upper LOW churning over extreme south-central MO this evening has
ejected an upper level disturbance to the northeast of the LOW
center, near KMDH in southern IL, and has resulted in light rain
with some measurable. The expected track of this disturbance
should follow the southeast edge of the CWA boundary in IL,
leaving little more than scattered sprinkles for areas along a
Salem (KSLO) to Farmington (KFAM) line. This is in line with the
current forecast.
This situation is expected to continue until late Monday morning
when the LOW finally pulls away.
Showers continue to form over the mid-MO valley from near a
genesis region near KFSD in southeast SD and while the prevailing
flow will try to push them down into our region, little support to
the southeast to sustain and sheer distance of travel should
prevent any impact in our CWA.
Otherwise, E-NE flow at cloud level should keep cloudy skies over
much of the region overnight and well into Monday. Look for a
minimal temp drop tonight with a somewhat better rise on Monday.
Higher MOS temps for mins tonight and lower MOS for maxes on
Monday preferred.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Rain associated with an upper level disturbance and an inverted
surface trough should remain s-se of the taf sites. The persistent
stratus cloud deck will continue at the taf sites with the
current ceilings around 2000 feet lowering to around 1000 feet
later this evening or overnight. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise on Monday to around 2000-3000 feet Monday afternoon with some
breaks possible in UIN and COU by late afternoon. N-nely surface
winds will become nely later tonight with a surface ridge
extending from MN and WI south into northeast MO shifting only
slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower tonight to around
1000 feet, then rise to around 2000 feet Monday afternoon. There
may be some breaks in the cloud deck Monday evening. Nly surface
wind will veer around to a nely direction later tonight.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
POORLY ORGANIZED ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING. I HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH
CATEGORICAL BETWEEN BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON WHERE GOOD BATCH OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN/SPOTTY SMALL HAIL CURRENTLY IS TRACKING
EASTWARD. RAPID REFRESH BRINGS BATCH INTO BILLINGS BETWEEN ABOUT
930-1030PM. CONVECTION EAST OF BILLINGS HAS NOT HELD TOGETHER VERY
WELL THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. BUT I DID
CARRY SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH
SOME LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. SATELLITE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA WITH THE MAIN JET MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF NOW...ONLY ONE LIGHTING STRIKE ACROSS THE
STATE AND THAT IS WEST OF MISSOULA. QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT
IS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT VISIBLY NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WITH IT AS THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING IT AT THIS TIME. ALSO
NOTED...SATELLITE SHOWING GRAVITY WAVES OVER BIG HORN COUNTY EAST
OF THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS WHICH IS ALSO A SIGN OF STABILITY
ALOFT. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WHEATLAND...GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES.
THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING. STILL BELIEVE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES LOOK LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHIFTED EAST MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CAPES AND BEST SHEAR WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOCATION OF STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS MODELS PLACE IT
JUST EAST OF BILLINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A HIGH PROBABILITY.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY A 90
DEGREE READING AT THE HOTTER LOCATIONS. READINGS TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED
WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE JUNE WITH A DAILY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST...A GOOD CHUNCK OF ENERGY DROPS INTO
CENTRAL/SRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HAVE MAINTAINED A GENERAL HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS AND OTHER PERIODS OF
ENHANCED STORM CHANCES TIMED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...TOO HARD TO TIME AND IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON ULTIMATE PATH OF UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 45KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DIME
SIZE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 06Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/086 056/075 050/073 052/071 051/072 053/071 051/073
64/T 63/T 33/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
LVM 051/083 051/071 046/068 046/069 047/068 049/068 047/068
27/T 65/T 44/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 43/T
HDN 056/089 056/080 051/075 052/074 051/075 053/074 050/075
33/T 63/T 22/T 44/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
MLS 058/090 060/078 053/075 054/073 053/076 055/074 051/073
13/T 63/T 32/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
4BQ 055/087 057/079 053/074 053/073 054/075 055/073 051/073
22/T 43/T 33/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
BHK 052/085 058/076 050/075 051/070 051/075 052/071 048/072
12/T 64/T 43/T 46/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
SHR 051/087 053/076 046/071 049/071 049/071 050/070 048/070
42/T 43/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...939 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE T STORM WATCH HEADLINES AND THE
SEVERE WORDING...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REDEVELOP A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM MORE BULLISH FOR
SE THIRD OF NM WHILE HRRR MODEL INDICATES MORE THE NE THIRD OR SO
OF THE STATE. ONLY A FEW MODEST SHOWERS UP IN NE AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REST OF PRE
MIDNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CUTTING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ZONE FCST
PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE BRIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN A LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.
THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN
STALL OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A SLOW
WARMING TREND AND RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO STAY IN THIS
GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING...WITH A LARGE STABLE LAKE
SHADOW KEEPING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO MUCH OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY DRY.
SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING RELATIVELY MODEST SBCAPE OF
AROUND 1500J/KG WITH VERY LIMITED 25 KNOT 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A LARGE NUMBER OF CLOSELY SPACED
CELLS...WHICH ARE COMPETING FOR THE RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY ONE STORM FROM BECOMING VERY
STRONG...WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE
STRONGER CORES. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND BY THAT TIME NOCTURNAL COOLING
WILL HAVE STABILIZED THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS.
LATER THIS EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LATER TONIGHT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND A MUCH MORE STABLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER
AS THE FRONT BECOMES ANABATIC IN NATURE...WITH ASCENT FOCUSING ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL FROM OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA. A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TOPPED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
FRONTOGENSIS AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...BUT
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. RAIN TOTALS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL APPROACH AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL FALL
BEYOND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S PRE-DAWN ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S BY MID MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION AND
RAIN CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL THEN ONLY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 50S LATE IN
THE DAY AT BEST IN MOST AREAS. MILD TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT WILL
PREVENT THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS FROM BEING APPROACHED.
FINALLY...WITH THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT FOG TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE LOW STRATUS WILL INTERSECT THE TERRAIN. FOG MAY ALSO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS CROSSING THE STILL COLD LAKE WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LOCALLY. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT STABLE LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MOST
OF THE TAF SITES.
TONIGHT THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DURING THE EVENING CIGS/VSBY WILL STAY MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR LOCALLY.
OVERNIGHT EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RARE LATE SPRING
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CIGS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EVEN THE LAKE PLAINS WILL SEE PLENTY OF IFR.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LOZ044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CWA IS RAIN-FREE AT DAYBREAK
AND THE DEPARTURE OF A MODEST LLJ SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. IR SATELLITE SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR DELAYS THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS WHICH SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING KEEP
THE LAKE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED A FOCUS...AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
IT WILL PROBABLY BE LAKE BREEZE OR TERRAIN BOUNDARIES THAT DO THIS.
DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH.
WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS.
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS
IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z- 03Z SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY
A TSTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.
BUFFALO RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
1 64.3 1991
2 63.8 2012
3 63.4 1944
4 62.8 1998
5 62.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
6 62.2 1975
ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
1 63.7 1911
2 63.6 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
3 63.2 2012
4 63.2 1944
WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
1 60.5 2012
2 60.0 1998
3 59.3 1975
4 58.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
5 58.8 1960
6 58.3 1991
MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.
BUFFALO RANK PRECIP YEAR
1 0.53 1877
2 0.54 1934
3 0.60 2005
4 0.83 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
5 0.90 2012
..
10 1.11 1926
ROCHESTER RANK PRECIP YEAR
1 0.24 2007
..
27 1.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
28 1.55 1876
29 1.59 1954
30 1.64 1926
WATERTOWN RANK PRECIP YEAR
1 0.70 1965
2 0.87 2005
3 0.88 1980
4 0.90 1974
5 0.99 1966
6 1.04 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
7 1.08 1972
8 1.09 1951
9 1.14 1949
10 1.16 1962
AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.
BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LOZ044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BECOME A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT, DECOUPLED WINDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED HOURLY
TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PRIOR EXPECTATIONS IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION BEGINS, SHOULD SEE TEMPS HOVER STEADY AND RISE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, SO ULTIMATELY OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS GOING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID/UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AFTER 18Z...AND MAINLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OUT OF SPC. BETTER DYNAMICS AND STRONGER SHEAR WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. CAPE VALUES REACH OVER 2000 IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION
TO END AND JUST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
TO OUR SOUTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS MENTIONED IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
REGION IS IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
FORESEEN BASED ON CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z
ECMWF. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IF SURFACE
WINDS DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEASTERNVT...TO AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS PROVIDING PLEASANT/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY...BEFORE MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S
ON FRIDAY.
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONCERNING
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND TRACKS STRONGEST UVV ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF - ON THE OTHER HAND -
KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY 15-30 POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POP VALUES ACROSS SRN ZONES. CLOUDS COULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRENDING WARMING (LOW-MID 70S) WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR (POSSIBLE MVFR MIST AT MPV) WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TOWARDS MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION FOCUS
WILL BE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MID-
TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE 10-18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-28 KTS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED...BUT
SOME COULD TURN STRONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LIGHTNING AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST SHOT AT SEEING THIS
ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z WOULD BE AT MSS AND SLK...AND AFTER 22Z AT
REST OF SITES.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING N-NW WINDS BEHIND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRENDING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...BUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
FOR RUT/MPV. AVIATION WX CONDITION PREDICTABILITY LOW AT THIS
POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO
MARINE...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A RIDGE
AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD
WHILE JUST ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NE. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER
WILL CONTINUE THE WARM...BUT AT TIMES SHOWERY...WEATHER TODAY.
MOIST ADVECTION ON LONG E/SE FETCH IS FINALLY OVERCOMING THE
CONTINENTAL DRY AIR AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
REGION AND OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY THIS MORNING. AS NOTED
YESTERDAY...AIR PARCELS ARE ACTUALLY ORIGINATING OVER SE CANADA
BEFORE TRAVERSING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE AND ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS OF DRY
ORIGIN...AND THUS IT IS DIFFICULT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TODAY THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE CURRENT HRRR IS PERFORMING WELL AND IS
LEANED UPON FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AT THE COAST WILL BE
MOST FAVORED THIS MORNING...THEN TRENDING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A SURGE OF DRIER AIR FORECAST BY LOWER PWATS ON
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW GUIDANCE...AND NOTED ON WV SATELLITE...WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. HAVE BUMPED POP TO
CHC...USING THE SCT WORDING HOWEVER...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN ADDED ISOLATED TO THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTN. THE DRY PUSH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT
BEST HOWEVER...ENDING BEFORE DARK...AND NO LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED.
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING HIGHS TOO LOW THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EVEN WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW HAVE FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...AND AM EXPECTING 80-82 AT THE BEACHES...TO AS HIGH AS 90
FROM KINGSTREE TO BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S...MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
WILL NEED TO WATCH ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POP FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWER ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 70 AND DAY TIME HIGHS MID HIGHS TO NEAR
90.
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS TROUGH DISPLACES THE HIGH FURTHER
EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...TAPPING INTO INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH SUN MORNING WILL BE 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES BY MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF
FRONT ON MONDAY. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEST OF AREA ON MONDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR OR WEST. BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GULF AS RIDGE
GETS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT THE FRONT MORE
WEST TO EAST JUST NORTHWEST OR OVER FORECAST AREA BY TUES MORNING
AND WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE SLOWER OR STALL. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE MONDAY AS CAP BECOMES
ERODED...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF MON EVENING SHOULD BE LEFT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUES BUT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...IT MAY
CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH LEAVING FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
W-SW TO E-NE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD
DOWN BEHIND IT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT NORTHWARD...BUT EITHER WAY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MAY WIN OUT OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT GFS WOULD HAVE LOW OVER GA/SC BORDER WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP CHC OF PCP EACH DAY WITH GREATEST CHC TUES/WED AS FRONT SAGS
OVER AREA.
CLOUDS...PCP AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD....WHILE KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN VFR LEVEL LOW/MID CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND TERMINALS WITH E-SE WINDS. THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KILM...ENDING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT BECOMING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODELS AGAIN ARE SUGGESTING MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...AND HAVE ADDED MVFR PREDOMINANT AT CRE/FLO/LBT. SOME
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ILM OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...AND SINCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BUT VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VCSH CONTINUES AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT ALL TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THUR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY AS
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES
ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY WEAK...SO E/SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING FROM 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RETURN TO 5-10 KTS IS
FORECAST LATE. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE NEARLY ENTIRELY SWELL
DOMINATED...AS A 4 FT AT 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTS...PUSHING
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SE WIND EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETREAT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS HEADING INTO TUES WHICH WILL HELP TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LESS THAN 10
KTS SUN INTO MON UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO BY TUES MORNING. THE
LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY FETCH WITH A PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS WILL
COMBINE A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TUES
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALLS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE DEPENDING WHERE
FRONT STALLS WITH N-NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF FRONT AND S-SE
WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A RIDGE
AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD
WHILE JUST ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NE. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER
WILL CONTINUE THE WARM...BUT AT TIMES SHOWERY...WEATHER TODAY.
MOIST ADVECTION ON LONG E/SE FETCH IS FINALLY OVERCOMING THE
CONTINENTAL DRY AIR AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
REGION AND OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY THIS MORNING. AS NOTED
YESTERDAY...AIR PARCELS ARE ACTUALLY ORIGINATING OVER SE CANADA
BEFORE TRAVERSING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE AND ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS OF DRY
ORIGIN...AND THUS IT IS DIFFICULT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TODAY THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE CURRENT HRRR IS PERFORMING WELL AND IS
LEANED UPON FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AT THE COAST WILL BE
MOST FAVORED THIS MORNING...THEN TRENDING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A SURGE OF DRIER AIR FORECAST BY LOWER PWATS ON
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW GUIDANCE...AND NOTED ON WV SATELLITE...WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. HAVE BUMPED POP TO
CHC...USING THE SCT WORDING HOWEVER...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN ADDED ISOLATED TO THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTN. THE DRY PUSH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT
BEST HOWEVER...ENDING BEFORE DARK...AND NO LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED.
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING HIGHS TOO LOW THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EVEN WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW HAVE FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...AND AM EXPECTING 80-82 AT THE BEACHES...TO AS HIGH AS 90
FROM KINGSTREE TO BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S...MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
WILL NEED TO WATCH ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POP FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWER ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 70 AND DAY TIME HIGHS MID HIGHS TO NEAR
90.
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS TROUGH DISPLACES THE HIGH FURTHER
EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...TAPPING INTO INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH SUN MORNING WILL BE 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES BY MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF
FRONT ON MONDAY. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEST OF AREA ON MONDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR OR WEST. BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GULF AS RIDGE
GETS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT THE FRONT MORE
WEST TO EAST JUST NORTHWEST OR OVER FORECAST AREA BY TUES MORNING
AND WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE SLOWER OR STALL. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE MONDAY AS CAP BECOMES
ERODED...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF MON EVENING SHOULD BE LEFT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUES BUT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...IT MAY
CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH LEAVING FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
W-SW TO E-NE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD
DOWN BEHIND IT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT NORTHWARD...BUT EITHER WAY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MAY WIN OUT OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT GFS WOULD HAVE LOW OVER GA/SC BORDER WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP CHC OF PCP EACH DAY WITH GREATEST CHC TUES/WED AS FRONT SAGS
OVER AREA.
CLOUDS...PCP AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD....WHILE KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUD LEVELS WILL BE VFR. LIGHT
NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-SE BY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KILM THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY AS
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES
ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY WEAK...SO E/SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING FROM 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RETURN TO 5-10 KTS IS
FORECAST LATE. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE NEARLY ENTIRELY SWELL
DOMINATED...AS A 4 FT AT 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTS...PUSHING
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SE WIND EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETREAT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS HEADING INTO TUES WHICH WILL HELP TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LESS THAN 10
KTS SUN INTO MON UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO BY TUES MORNING. THE
LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY FETCH WITH A PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS WILL
COMBINE A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TUES
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALLS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE DEPENDING WHERE
FRONT STALLS WITH N-NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF FRONT AND S-SE
WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWING A PRETTY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE
WITH PWATS AT 1.50" (NORMAL JUST ABOVE 1" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
K INDEX WAS ALSO 35. HIGH RES MODELS ARE A BIT OVERDONE THIS
MORNING. LATEST HRRR DIDN`T INITIALIZE WELL WITH LATEST RAP
OVERDONE. THE NCEP WRF AND NSSL WRF SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB SO
FAR WITH MORNING RAIN AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PUSHED HIGHER POPS MORE
TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z KILN
SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH HIGH RES MODELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOWER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH 850 TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION->
AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED
TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION
WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST
UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR
CURRENTLY. DUE TO COVERAGE HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA TO ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION BEST
COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN ARE INDICATING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG A FRONT. HIGH RES MODELS THEN WEAKEN THE N-S LINE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS. NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR CIGS OFF TO THE WEST WITH MVFR TOWARDS
THE EAST. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED CIGS DOWN.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
924 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWING A PRETTY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE
WITH PWATS AT 1.50" (NORMAL JUST ABOVE 1" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
K INDEX WAS ALSO 35. HIGH RES MODELS ARE A BIT OVERDONE THIS
MORNING. LATEST HRRR DIDN`T INITIALIZE WELL WITH LATEST RAP
OVERDONE. THE NCEP WRF AND NSSL WRF SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB SO
FAR WITH MORNING RAIN AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PUSHED HIGHER POPS MORE
TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z KILN
SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH HIGH RES MODELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOWER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH 850 TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION->
AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED
TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION
WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST
UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
ILN AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER COULD MOVE TOWARD CMH. WILL LIKELY HAVE
VCSH IN ATTM THROUGH 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUE VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT 06Z. SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND KEPT CIGS IN VFR ATTM.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED
TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION
WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST
UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
ILN AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER COULD MOVE TOWARD CMH. WILL LIKELY HAVE
VCSH IN ATTM THROUGH 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUE VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT 06Z. SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND KEPT CIGS IN VFR ATTM.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED
TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION
WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST
UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. IN MOIST FLOW...EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN BR AT KLUK...OTHERWISE VFR THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUED VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES MAY START TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE
DAY/CVG TERMINALS CLOSE TO 06Z.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW LINES OF STRONG TSRA WERE
CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID SUSQ VALLEY AT 0245Z. THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE AN EAST/WEST LINE OF TSRA WAS FORMING NEAR THE
LEBANON/LACASTER COUNTY LINE...IN ADVANCE OF A LINE OF STRONG
TSRA.
AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NRN LANCASTER AND SRN LEBANON COUNTY
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD EASTWARD TO
BETWEEN SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG INTO EASTERN PA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COOLER AIR.
THE HRRR KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THINGS OFF OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SE SITES.
03Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1056 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW LINES OF STRONG TSRA WERE
CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID SUSQ VALLEY AT 0245Z. THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE AN EAST/WEST LINE OF TSRA WAS FORMING NEAR THE
LEBANON/LACASTER COUNTY LINE...IN ADVANCE OF A LINE OF STRONG
TSRA.
AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NRN LANCASTER AND SRN LEBANON COUNTY
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD EASTWARD TO
BETWEEN SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG INTO EASTERN PA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COOLER AIR.
THE HRRR KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THINGS OFF OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENINGAMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 00Z TAFS SENT.
WIND GUST TO 48 AND 50 KNOTS AT MDT. TWO SEPERATE CELLS
FOR THIS SITE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
806 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL QUITE ACTIVE ON THE RADAR FRONT. SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN FIRING
ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN CLEARFIELD COUNTY.
THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD EASTWARD TO BETWEEN
SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG INTO EASTERN PA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COOLER AIR.
THE HRRR KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THINGS OFF OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENINGAMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 00Z TAFS SENT.
WIND GUST TO 48 AND 50 KNOTS AT MDT. TWO SEPERATE CELLS
FOR THIS SITE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL QUITE ACTIVE ON THE RADAR FRONT. SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN FIRING
ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN CLEARFIELD COUNTY.
THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD EASTWARD TO BETWEEN
SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG INTO EASTERN PA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COOLER AIR.
THE HRRR KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THINGS OFF OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENINGAMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 21Z TAFS SENT.
WIND GUST TO 48 KNOTS AT MDT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY. RAP SHOWS WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE VALLEY WHILE THE
HRRR A LITTLE MORE SOLD ON SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. BOUGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY CONCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA OR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF CHA SO KEPT SOME
OF THIS AT CHA BUT KEPT MENTION OUT AT TYS AND TRI. THERE COULD BE
SOME FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT BUT DON`T EXPECT IT TO BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH SO MUCH MID DECK BUILDING IN WITH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
UPPER TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT SO
USED THE VICINITY THUNDER CONCEPT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF POPS IN THE DELTA THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR INDICATING A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER AND AN ILL-
DEFINED DRY SLOT ROTATING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES.
HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THIS LATTER REGION TO INCLUDE THE MEMPHIS
METRO THROUGH NOON. AFTER WHICH...THE BRUNT OF THE STORMS WILL RUN
EAST OF A UNION CITY TENNESSEE...TO AN OXFORD MISSISSIPPI
LINE...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM RUNNING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
AR...MOVING EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN AR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. 07Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST MS AND AREAS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER BY
MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANY
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING... AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST MS BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY
EVENING... LEAVING DRIER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEITHER MODEL
RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ONLY THE GFS
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE LOWER 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WARMER TREND DEVELOPING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCV CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPOS FOR TSRA HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KMKL AND KTUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL CARRY VCTS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS
WHERE COVERAGE IS LOWER.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS SHOULD
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
850 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF POPS IN THE DELTA THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR INDICATING A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER AND AN ILL-
DEFINED DRY SLOT ROTATING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES.
HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THIS LATTER REGION TO INCLUDE THE MEMPHIS
METRO THROUGH NOON. AFTER WHICH...THE BRUNT OF THE STORMS WILL RUN
EAST OF A UNION CITY TENNESSEE...TO AN OXFORD MISSISSIPPI
LINE...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM RUNNING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
AR...MOVING EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN AR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. 07Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST MS AND AREAS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER BY
MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANY
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING... AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST MS BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY
EVENING... LEAVING DRIER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEITHER MODEL
RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ONLY THE GFS
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE LOWER 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WARMER TREND DEVELOPING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED IN
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER THUS REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT VCTS WORDING THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT KTUP. AT KMEM
ENDED THREAT AT 9Z. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LOWER...WILL
IMPACT KJBR...KMKL AND KMEM AFTER 8-9Z. GUSTY SSW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-8 KTS BEHIND
FRONT.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
AR...MOVING EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN AR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. 07Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST MS AND AREAS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER BY
MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANY
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING... AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST MS BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY
EVENING... LEAVING DRIER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEITHER MODEL
RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ONLY THE GFS
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE LOWER 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WARMER TREND DEVELOPING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED IN
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER THUS REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT VCTS WORDING THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT KTUP. AT KMEM
ENDED THREAT AT 9Z. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LOWER...WILL
IMPACT KJBR...KMKL AND KMEM AFTER 8-9Z. GUSTY SSW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-8 KTS BEHIND
FRONT.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
424 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AR...MOVING
EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN AR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. 07Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST MS AND AREAS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER BY
MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANY
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING... AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST MS BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY
EVENING... LEAVING DRIER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEITHER MODEL
RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ONLY THE GFS
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE LOWER 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WARMER TREND DEVELOPING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR BY LATE TONIGHT AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP...MVFR AT
KJBR. CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 30/17Z. WINDS TONIGHT SOUTHERLY 7-10
KTS. WINDS SATURDAY SW INCREASING TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 31/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS TURNING TO W AND NW 6-8 KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 84 64 86 66 / 50 20 - 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 83 61 85 64 / 50 20 - 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 64 87 66 / 50 30 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 62 84 65 / 40 20 - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 69 89 70 / 40 30 - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 62 84 65 / 40 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 65 87 66 / 50 30 - 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 63 85 65 / 50 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 63 85 67 / 60 40 - 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 85 66 86 68 / 50 30 - 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 86 67 / 60 30 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVIING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY
ONCE STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 84 64 86 66 / 50 20 - 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 83 61 85 64 / 50 20 - 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 64 87 66 / 50 30 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 62 84 65 / 40 20 - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 69 89 70 / 40 30 - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 62 84 65 / 40 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 65 87 66 / 50 30 - 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 63 85 65 / 50 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 63 85 67 / 60 40 - 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 85 66 86 68 / 50 30 - 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 86 67 / 60 30 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
.MESOANALYSIS...
19Z ANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FROM HOUSTON TO VICTORIA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH C TX NOW THROUGH WACO/TEMPLE AREAS. VIS
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE WITH ANOTHER AREA POSSIBLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CROCKETT TO COLLEGE STATION AND THEN NEAR SAN
ANTONIO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH N C TX AND W TX WHICH HAS ALREADY INITIATED CONVECTION
DOWN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. CONVECTION ALONG THE OUT FLOW OVER C TX
AND HILL COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE GETTING SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
ASSOCIATED LIFT. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY BUILDING UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. CHANGES IN CAPE/CIN THE LAST 3
HRS HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE CAPE AND DECREASE CIN SO STARTING TO SEE
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE AREA.
THINK THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIATING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S ALREADY. SUSPECT THAT IF PRECIP
WATER VALUES WERE HIGHER STORMS WOULD BE FORMING ALREADY. RECENT
TRENDS IN HRRR STILL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS DO 12Z
WRF ARW/NMM RUNS. EVEN TX TECH WRF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 21Z SAT TO 03Z. ONLY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
BE KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING IS SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE
THAN EXPECTED AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK RIDGING AT 700MB. THAT SAID
THERE IS A COLD POCKET OF -13C AT 500MB OVER C TX THAT MAY PUSH
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. TROUGH AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY MID LEVEL RIDGING.
ONCE STORMS DO FORM...THINKING IS THAT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY
SLOW. BUT HI RES MODELS SEEM TO THINK A LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM
WITH A COLD POOL. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS IS THAT STORMS MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND DECREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. STILL NEED TO WATCH BECAUSE ANY STORMS THAT
EXCEED RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR COULD STILL POTENTIALLY
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. IN GENERAL ANY AREA THAT GETS OVER 3
INCHES QUICKLY COULD HAVE FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD STORMS MOVE
SLOWER THE EVEN STORM WITH 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR COULD CAUSE PROBLEM
IF THEY PERSIST FOR ONLY 2-3 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON WE
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS IS.
SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW PRECIP WATER
VALUES DROPPING TO UNDER 1 INCH FOR MONDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
COULD REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK RAIN CHANCES. UPPER LOW THAT WAS
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER LA IS NOW PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SO LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.
LONG TERM...
THUR/FRI/SAT FOR THE COMING WEEK BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND ALLOW FOR GROUNDS TO DRY OUT. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES KEPT IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.
39
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE MOMENT AND SEAS
OF 2 FEET. THIS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
STYSEM COMING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE AND EXTENDING INTO THE AUSTIN AREA
TO MAKE SURE THEY DON`T TURN EAST. IF SO THEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE COAST
AROUND 4 AM PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING RELAX AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE FORMS. A LITTLE STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KNOTS.
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL A SECOND
PUSH OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS ONE IS SHORTER
LIVED. WEDNESDAY IS RETURN FLOW AND MAY FINALLY SEE SUSTAINED 10-15
KNOT SE-SSE WINDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIDE LEVELS ONE HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY WITH ONSET OF THE MORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 82 64 85 68 / 50 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 84 66 87 68 / 60 40 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 84 73 85 74 / 50 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
150 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-500MB RIDGING APPARENT WITH DEMISE OF MOST OF
THE STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SEABREEZE IS SPREADING
INLAND AND RIDGING ALOFT IS SLIDING EAST SO FULLY EXPECT THAT WITH
87-90 DEGREE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON THAT STORMS WILL FIRE UP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR SW-NE
THROUGH THE HOUSTON TAF SITES. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISBY WITH GUSTY WINDS.
21-01Z SHOULD BE THE TIME THEY FOCUS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THEN
SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING. BOUNDARY NEARING A JAS/UTS/CLL/AUS
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO BECOME AS
ACTIVE AS THE SEABREEZE AND FOR ANY POTENTIAL COLLISIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EVEN ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY
FLOW ON TAP SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO SE TX FROM CONVECTION OVER N TX
THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
FEW SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG US 59 FROM HOUSTON
TO LUFKIN. OTHER ISO CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE FORMED FROM COLUMBUS
TO PALACIOS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO PULSE IN INTENSITY
WITH MAYBE RAIN RATES OF HALF INCH AN HOUR. THE MAIN TREND TO NOTE
IS THAT STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY MUCH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N TX INTO W C TX. FRONT SHOULD BE
MAKING ITS WAY TO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. BEGINNING OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH COLLEGE STATION/CROCKETT LINE 3-4PM AND THEN HOUSTON
AREA 6-7PM BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUN.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS STORMS FORMING ON SEA
BREEZE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS WILL
NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF
HRS WILL CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT VERY
SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH MEANS EVEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS
BUT WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WATCH FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 67 81 64 85 / 70 50 30 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 70 83 66 87 / 80 70 50 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 75 81 74 81 / 50 50 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A LINE OF STORMS LEAVING KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MERGES WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR VBSYS WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.
OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 83 64 86 66 / 40 20 0 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 82 61 85 64 / 40 20 0 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 64 87 66 / 50 20 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 62 84 65 / 40 10 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 86 69 89 70 / 50 20 - 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 62 84 65 / 40 10 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 65 87 66 / 50 20 - 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 63 85 65 / 50 20 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 83 63 85 67 / 50 20 - 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 84 66 86 68 / 40 20 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 67 86 67 / 40 20 0 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO SE TX FROM CONVECTION OVER N TX
THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
FEW SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG US 59 FROM HOUSTON
TO LUFKIN. OTHER ISO COVECTIVE CELLS HAVE FORMED FROM COLUMBUS TO
PALACIOS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO PULSE IN INTENSITY WITH
MAYBE RAIN RATES OF HALF INCH AN HOUR. THE MAIN TREND TO NOTE IS
THAT STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY MUCH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N TX INTO W C TX. FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS
WAY TO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. BEGINNING OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
COLLEGE STATION/CROCKETT LINE 3-4PM AND THEN HOUSTON AREA 6-7PM
BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUN.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS STORMS FORMING ON SEA
BREEZE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS WILL
NOT BE MOVING QUIKCLY. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF
HRS WILL CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT VERY
SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH MEANS EVEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS
BUT WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WATCH FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT
KCLL AND KUTS BEFORE 15Z. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE HOLDING
BACK ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THESE TWO SITES UNTIL MID MORNING.
THIS MAY PAN OUT AS THE LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SQUALL
LINE WAS WEAKENING AT 11Z AS IT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE KGRK RADAR
SITE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS IF THESE STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER.
KEPT THE SAME TIMING FOR THE MOST PART AS IN THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE. BY MID MORNING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND BY MIDDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME BETTER. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. IF SO...THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS MAY HAVE ADVERSE
IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 03Z. AFTER A BREAK...THE
NAM12 BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM KCXO TO THE
COAST AFTER 09Z.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT OKLAHOMA CITY TO
ABILENE TO FORT STOCKTON. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTH...AND PUSHES EAST A BIT MORE SLOWLY.
SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES SHOW 1.6-1.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 82 DEGREES.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT AND ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
DIVERGENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SE TX WILL BRIEFLY LIE IN A
RIGHT REAR QUAD SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 15-17Z AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST AND
WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES ABOUT 18Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN
TO WORK INLAND DURING THE AFTN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THE TWO FEATURES SHOULD MERGE OVER SE TX DURING THE
AFTN. THE NAM 12 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE/FRONT
COLLIDING AROUND 21Z WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE NAM IS PRODUCING 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS HARRIS...BRAZORIA AND FT BEND COUNTIES. THE QPF OUTPUT FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE BENIGN BUT THEY ARE BASICALLY ON THE
SAME PAGE WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT FEEL THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THINK THE WATCH
WILL BE TRIMMED FROM THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING ONCE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME CLEAR.
THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A
TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTN.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ON MONDAY BUT IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL TRIGGER A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES ON MON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TUE-FRI. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. 43
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY GET TO ABOVE CAUTION LEVELS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 67 81 64 85 / 70 50 30 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 70 83 66 87 / 80 70 50 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 75 81 74 81 / 50 50 50 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.
OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 67 81 65 85 / 70 50 30 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 66 81 62 85 / 70 60 30 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 67 82 65 86 / 70 60 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 79 63 84 / 70 50 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 67 85 68 89 / 70 40 30 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 65 80 62 84 / 70 50 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 83 66 86 / 70 50 30 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 66 81 64 84 / 70 60 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 68 81 65 85 / 70 60 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 68 83 67 86 / 70 50 30 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 83 67 86 / 70 50 30 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
AN MCS CURRENTLY FROM N OF KABI TO N OF KMAF WILL MOVE TO THE SE
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO EDWARDS PLATEAU BY SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO WEAKENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE DAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS
AND TTU WRF WITH PROB30S FOR THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AND VCSH OTHERWISE. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL TURN MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND BR DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SOME MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...
RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 82 64 85 66 / 40 20 10 20 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 81 62 85 63 / 40 30 10 20 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 83 64 86 66 / 50 30 10 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 62 83 65 / 40 20 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 86 68 88 69 / 40 30 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 62 84 64 / 40 20 10 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 83 65 86 66 / 40 40 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 81 64 84 65 / 50 30 10 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 82 65 85 66 / 50 40 10 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 83 66 85 67 / 50 30 10 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 66 86 67 / 50 40 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH
OF ROANOKE AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BUENA VISTA TO BLUEFIELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO HAVE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES
IN THAT AREA. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR BUT STILL
SHOWED NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT BEST. ELSEWHERE CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PER HEATING...DECENT
INSTABILITY...AND HIGH 85H THETA-E WITH BEST CHANCES MOUNTAINS
WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE.
SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON GIVEN A WARM START
AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUDS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN APPEARS MOS A BIT
COOL AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGHS
CLOSE TO 90 SE...WITH LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAY LINGER ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING CAUSE SHOWERS TO FADE
SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THIS EVENING MAINLY FAR WEST. UPSTREAM
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS TOO FAR WEST TO REACH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. HOWEVER RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AS
SEEN IN MODEL PWATS LATE SUPPORTS INCLUDING SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY WESTERN THIRD LATE. OTHERWISE MAINLY PC WITH ADDED PATCHY
FOG BY MORNING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE WITH MOST SPOTS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60-66 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT..
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MORE NOTICEABLE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ONCE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE LIFT EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS HIGHER PWAT AIR
RETURNS...BEST SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE...GREATER CONCERN MAY BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...PUSHED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
KEPT POPS GOING AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY WITH FORCING FROM SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHERE
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A SFC WAVE FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DEVELOPING IN NC. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS A RESULT...LOWER INSTABILITY.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...850MB THETA-E AXIS LINGERS IN NC AND SOUTHERN VA AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NWS RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOP AT THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WEST OF A LINE
FROM BUENA VISTA VIRGINIA TO ROANOKE TO TAZEWELL VIRGINIA. KLWB
HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HAVE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 00Z
TODAY BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD TSRA OR VCTS IN FOR THE KROA AND
KBCB TAFS DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS.
ONCE THE SUN SET THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. AIRPORT THAT GET RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
TURN SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO OTHER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/NOON-2PM BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH IN THAT TIME FRAME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPCLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE
FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AND WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH
OF ROANOKE AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BUENA VISTA TO BLUEFIELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO HAVE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES
IN THAT AREA. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR BUT STILL
SHOWED NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT BEST. ELSEWHERE CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PER HEATING...DECENT
INSTABILITY...AND HIGH 85H THETA-E WITH BEST CHANCES MOUNTAINS
WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE.
SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON GIVEN A WARM START
AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUDS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN APPEARS MOS A BIT
COOL AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGHS
CLOSE TO 90 SE...WITH LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAY LINGER ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING CAUSE SHOWERS TO FADE
SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THIS EVENING MAINLY FAR WEST. UPSTREAM
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS TOO FAR WEST TO REACH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. HOWEVER RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AS
SEEN IN MODEL PWATS LATE SUPPORTS INCLUDING SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY WESTERN THIRD LATE. OTHERWISE MAINLY PC WITH ADDED PATCHY
FOG BY MORNING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE WITH MOST SPOTS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60-66 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT..
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MORE NOTICEABLE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ONCE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE LIFT EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS HIGHER PWAT AIR
RETURNS...BEST SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE...GREATER CONCERN MAY BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...PUSHED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
KEPT POPS GOING AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY WITH FORCING FROM SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHERE
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A SFC WAVE FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DEVELOPING IN NC. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS A RESULT...LOWER INSTABILITY.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...850MB THETA-E AXIS LINGERS IN NC AND SOUTHERN VA AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FOG REMAINS PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DENSE
IN SPOTS WITH IFR/LIFR AT KBCB/KLWB AND AREAS OF MVFR AROUND KROA.
THIS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME LOWER STRATUS AS WELL WITH MOSTLY MID
DECK ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STILL SEEING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NW OF KLWB. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH
HEATING AROUND 13Z/9AM...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF VFR 4-6K FT
CU FIELDS BY MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE NUDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUCH
THAT ANY DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN OVERALL COVERAGE
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE...VCTS
KEPT AT KBLF AND KLWB AROUND 17Z/1PM...BUT NOT AT THE REMAINING
AVIATION FORECAST POINTS FOR NOW GIVEN MORE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD AGAIN FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE WEST COULD SEE A BIT MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH
MORE IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
PATCHY BUT BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH BETTER SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPCLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO
THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB- VFR
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND WEDGING IN
PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
655 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY ALL BUT FADED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING LEAVING MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW/MID CLOUDS TO INIT.
HOWEVER AGAIN EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING
LEADING TO ANOTHER RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY RISE JUST A BIT FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS TO THE SE ON FRIDAY TO PUSH
NORTH/NW AND PUT MORE OF A LID ON CONVECTION GIVEN FORECAST DRYING
ALOFT OFF SOUNDINGS. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DROP IN PWATS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT 5H TROUGH TO THE WEST. APPEARS BEST WEAK CONVERGENCE TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE NW WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDER A LEFTOVER
WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT MORE TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERING OF CONVECTION. THIS IN LINE WITH MOST SOLUTIONS AND ESPCLY
THE LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR BUT STILL NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT
BEST. ELSEWHERE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PER
HEATING...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND HIGH 85H THETA-E WITH BEST CHANCES
MOUNTAINS WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE.
SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON GIVEN A WARM START
AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUDS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN APPEARS MOS A BIT
COOL AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGHS
CLOSE TO 90 SE...WITH LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAY LINGER ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING CAUSE SHOWERS TO FADE
SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THIS EVENING MAINLY FAR WEST. UPSTREAM
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS TOO FAR WEST TO REACH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. HOWEVER RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AS
SEEN IN MODEL PWATS LATE SUPPORTS INCLUDING SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY WESTERN THIRD LATE. OTHERWISE MAINLY PC WITH ADDED PATCHY
FOG BY MORNING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE WITH MOST SPOTS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60-66 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT..
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MORE NOTICEABLE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ONCE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE LIFT EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS HIGHER PWAT AIR
RETURNS...BEST SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE...GREATER CONCERN MAY BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...PUSHED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
KEPT POPS GOING AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY WITH FORCING FROM SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHERE
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A SFC WAVE FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DEVELOPING IN NC. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS A RESULT...LOWER INSTABILITY.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...850MB THETA-E AXIS LINGERS IN NC AND SOUTHERN VA AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FOG REMAINS PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DENSE
IN SPOTS WITH IFR/LIFR AT KBCB/KLWB AND AREAS OF MVFR AROUND KROA.
THIS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME LOWER STRATUS AS WELL WITH MOSTLY MID
DECK ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STILL SEEING ISOLATED
SHOWERS NW OF KLWB. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH
HEATING AROUND 13Z/9AM...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF VFR 4-6K FT
CU FIELDS BY MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE NUDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUCH
THAT ANY DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN OVERALL COVERAGE
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE...VCTS
KEPT AT KBLF AND KLWB AROUND 17Z/1PM...BUT NOT AT THE REMAINING
AVIATION FORECAST POINTS FOR NOW GIVEN MORE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD AGAIN FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE WEST COULD SEE A BIT MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH
MORE IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KLWB/KBCB BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
PATCHY BUT BRIEF MVFR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH BETTER SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPCLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO
THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB- VFR
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND WEDGING IN
PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
308 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY ALL BUT FADED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING LEAVING MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW/MID CLOUDS TO INIT.
HOWEVER AGAIN EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING
LEADING TO ANOTHER RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY RISE JUST A BIT FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS TO THE SE ON FRIDAY TO PUSH
NORTH/NW AND PUT MORE OF A LID ON CONVECTION GIVEN FORECAST DRYING
ALOFT OFF SOUNDINGS. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DROP IN PWATS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT 5H TROUGH TO THE WEST. APPEARS BEST WEAK CONVERGENCE TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE NW WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDER A LEFTOVER
WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT MORE TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERING OF CONVECTION. THIS IN LINE WITH MOST SOLUTIONS AND ESPCLY
THE LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR BUT STILL NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT
BEST. ELSEWHERE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PER
HEATING...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND HIGH 85H THETA-E WITH BEST CHANCES
MOUNTAINS WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE.
SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON GIVEN A WARM START
AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUDS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN APPEARS MOS A BIT
COOL AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGHS
CLOSE TO 90 SE...WITH LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAY LINGER ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING CAUSE SHOWERS TO FADE
SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THIS EVENING MAINLY FAR WEST. UPSTREAM
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS TOO FAR WEST TO REACH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. HOWEVER RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AS
SEEN IN MODEL PWATS LATE SUPPORTS INCLUDING SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY WESTERN THIRD LATE. OTHERWISE MAINLY PC WITH ADDED PATCHY
FOG BY MORNING. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE WITH MOST SPOTS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60-66 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT..
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MORE NOTICEABLE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ONCE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE LIFT EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS HIGHER PWAT AIR
RETURNS...BEST SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE...GREATER CONCERN MAY BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...PUSHED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
KEPT POPS GOING AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY WITH FORCING FROM SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHERE
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A SFC WAVE FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DEVELOPING IN NC. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS A RESULT...LOWER INSTABILITY.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...850MB THETA-E AXIS LINGERS IN NC AND SOUTHERN VA AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
STILL SEEING ISOLATED SHRA LINGER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN
LEFTOVER INSTABILITY BUT EXPECTING MOST RAINFALL TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION PENDING LOCATION OF SHRA AT RELEASE OTRW
LEAVING OUT MENTION OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER TODAY STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AND THIS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. KLWB...KLYH...AND KBCB HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...LESS
SO AT KDAN...KBLF...AND KROA. HOWEVER STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO GIVEN PATCHY NATURE TO FOG AND LINGERING
STRATO-CU/AC THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW ADDED IN BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS AT
KBCB/KLWB WHERE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOST LATE NIGHT FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM...TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF
CUMULUS WITH ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE NUDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUCH
THAT ANY DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN OVERALL COVERAGE
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE...VCTS
COMMENT KEPT AT KBLF AND KLWB TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS AT
17Z/1PM...BUT NOT AT THE REMAINING AVIATION FORECAST POINTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW
MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
825 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND ON MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. COOLER...CLOUDIER AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
COULD RISE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CREST
OF THE OREGON CASCADES...BUT AS THE EVENING HAS WORN ON STORMS HAVE
SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE IN LINE WITH WHERE MODELS HAVE INDICATED BEST
INSTABILITY WOULD GO. CONVECTION THOUGH HAS PICKED UP TO THE S OVER
SW OREGON...IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
PICTURES MOVING ONTO THE N CA COAST. MODELS SHOW THE LOW LIFTING NE
TONIGHT AND MON...PASSING JUST TO THE S AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE NE
QUARDRANT OF THE LOW...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL
TO LASS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDER IN WITH THE POPS INLAND AREAS...BUT DROP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATE EVENING VISIBILE PICTURES SHOWED
MARINE CLOUDS DEVELOPING QUICKLY N UP THE OREGON AS ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS STRENGTHENED. EXPECT A STRONG MARINE PUCH TO BEGIN TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES PAST AND SW ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MON. THE ASTRONG MARINE PUSH WILL RESULT
IN MUCCH COOLER TEMPS MON. CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST...PERIODS OF MORNING CLOUDS FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
/NEUMAN
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED UP THE COAST AND ARE NOW
AFFECTING ALL COASTAL TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
INLAND BUT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. TSRA CURRENTLY AROUND ROSEBURG WILL MOVE
NORTH TO NEAR EUGENE BY ABOUT 05Z AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT FURTHER
NORTH. CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE TERMINAL AND
VICINITY AFTER 07Z...BUT ONLY ABOUT A 20 PCT CHANCE. COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z BUT GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TS. BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECT A SOUTH SURGE STARTING OVER THE SRN WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THEN PUSHING N...WITH WINDS STAYING AROUND 10-15 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WIND OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS.
SEAS TO REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SPECTRAL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEVERAL 2 OR 3 FT SWELL SETS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANY OF WHICH COULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SHOULD START TO
SEE MORE FRESH SWELL LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE STRONGER NLY WIND.
BOWEN/WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
757 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances this evening are expected to be more
confined to a small portion of southeast Washington and north
central Idaho. Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly Monday
and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the
south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong. Unsettled and
cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week
with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops down south to account for the
thunderstorms moving northeast through Eastern Oregon that have
been moving through Southeast Washington and southern portions of
the North Idaho Panhandle. Have also inserted mention of areas of
blowing dusts as an outflow boundar ahead of a line of
thunderstorms moving through Northeast Oregon propagates out ahead
of the line of thunderstorms and has been lofting dust. Sustained
winds will show an increase and gusts could approach 55 mph along
this outflow boundary and the dust associated with it will lower
visibility in Southeast Washington and Southern Portions of the
North Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The atmosphere over the aviation area continues to
moisten with substantial destabilization and abundant triggering
mechanisms moving up from the south tonight and especially Monday
morning and through the day Monday. Of note are the thunderstorms
currently near KLWS and vicinity. This activity and additional
activity this evening are likely to impact that area over and
around KLWS with hail...heavy rain...infrequent lightning...and
gusty wind before subsiding close to 6Z Monday. As early as 12Z
Monday a strong front moves from south to north and is expected to
bring very powerful thunderstorms dropping hail and heavy rain
along with frequent lightning and very gusty wind over the
aviation area. Outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will loft
dust and lower visibilities as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 77 53 67 50 68 / 10 70 70 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 58 78 52 65 49 67 / 10 80 80 60 60 30
Pullman 56 73 49 64 47 66 / 50 70 60 60 40 20
Lewiston 64 82 54 70 52 73 / 60 80 60 60 50 20
Colville 57 81 55 68 51 70 / 10 80 90 80 60 40
Sandpoint 54 77 53 65 49 67 / 10 80 100 70 70 60
Kellogg 56 75 50 63 46 66 / 10 90 90 80 70 30
Moses Lake 63 83 54 72 52 75 / 0 70 40 40 20 20
Wenatchee 64 79 54 70 52 72 / 10 70 70 50 20 20
Omak 57 81 54 69 50 71 / 0 70 90 80 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
757 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances this evening are expected to be more
confined to a small portion of southeast Washington and north
central Idaho. Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly Monday
and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the
south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong. Unsettled and
cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week
with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops down south to account for the
thunderstorms moving northeast through Eastern Oregon that have
been moving through Southeast Washington and southern portions of
the North Idaho Panhandle. Have also inserted mention of areas of
blowing dusts as an outflow boundar ahead of a line of
thunderstorms moving through Northeast Oregon propagates out ahead
of the line of thunderstorms and has been lofting dust. Sustained
winds will show an increase and gusts could approach 55 mph along
this outflow boundary and the dust associated with it will lower
visibility in Southeast Washington and Southern Portions of the
North Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The atmosphere over the aviation area continues to
moisten with substantial destabilization and abundant triggering
mechanisms moving up from the south tonight and especially Monday
morning and through the day Monday. Of note are the thunderstorms
currently near KLWS and vicinity. This activity and additional
activity this evening are likely to impact that area over and
around KLWS with hail...heavy rain...infrequent lightning...and
gusty wind before subsiding close to 6Z Monday. As early as 12Z
Monday a strong front moves from south to north and is expected to
bring very powerful thunderstorms dropping hail and heavy rain
along with frequent lightning and very gusty wind over the
aviation area. Outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will loft
dust and lower visibilities as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 77 53 67 50 68 / 10 70 70 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 58 78 52 65 49 67 / 10 80 80 60 60 30
Pullman 56 73 49 64 47 66 / 50 70 60 60 40 20
Lewiston 64 82 54 70 52 73 / 60 80 60 60 50 20
Colville 57 81 55 68 51 70 / 10 80 90 80 60 40
Sandpoint 54 77 53 65 49 67 / 10 80 100 70 70 60
Kellogg 56 75 50 63 46 66 / 10 90 90 80 70 30
Moses Lake 63 83 54 72 52 75 / 0 70 40 40 20 20
Wenatchee 64 79 54 70 52 72 / 10 70 70 50 20 20
Omak 57 81 54 69 50 71 / 0 70 90 80 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
757 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances this evening are expected to be more
confined to a small portion of southeast Washington and north
central Idaho. Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly Monday
and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the
south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong. Unsettled and
cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week
with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops down south to account for the
thunderstorms moving northeast through Eastern Oregon that have
been moving through Southeast Washington and southern portions of
the North Idaho Panhandle. Have also inserted mention of areas of
blowing dusts as an outflow boundar ahead of a line of
thunderstorms moving through Northeast Oregon propagates out ahead
of the line of thunderstorms and has been lofting dust. Sustained
winds will show an increase and gusts could approach 55 mph along
this outflow boundary and the dust associated with it will lower
visibility in Southeast Washington and Southern Portions of the
North Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The atmosphere over the aviation area continues to
moisten with substantial destabilization and abundant triggering
mechanisms moving up from the south tonight and especially Monday
morning and through the day Monday. Of note are the thunderstorms
currently near KLWS and vicinity. This activity and additional
activity this evening are likely to impact that area over and
around KLWS with hail...heavy rain...infrequent lightning...and
gusty wind before subsiding close to 6Z Monday. As early as 12Z
Monday a strong front moves from south to north and is expected to
bring very powerful thunderstorms dropping hail and heavy rain
along with frequent lightning and very gusty wind over the
aviation area. Outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will loft
dust and lower visibilities as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 77 53 67 50 68 / 10 70 70 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 58 78 52 65 49 67 / 10 80 80 60 60 30
Pullman 56 73 49 64 47 66 / 50 70 60 60 40 20
Lewiston 64 82 54 70 52 73 / 60 80 60 60 50 20
Colville 57 81 55 68 51 70 / 10 80 90 80 60 40
Sandpoint 54 77 53 65 49 67 / 10 80 100 70 70 60
Kellogg 56 75 50 63 46 66 / 10 90 90 80 70 30
Moses Lake 63 83 54 72 52 75 / 0 70 40 40 20 20
Wenatchee 64 79 54 70 52 72 / 10 70 70 50 20 20
Omak 57 81 54 69 50 71 / 0 70 90 80 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances this evening are expected to be more
confined to a small portion of southeast Washington and north
central Idaho. Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly Monday
and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the
south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong. Unsettled and
cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week
with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon and Tonight: Low pressure system currently off the
California coast near 37N/127W will continue to make its way
onshore late this evening/tonight. Dense cirrus clouds have been
streaming in from the south all day. Convection has recently
started to fire off across the Clearwater Mountains with an
isolated thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains. Expect more
convection to get going across northeast Oregon and travel into
southeast WA and the central ID panhandle late this afternoon and
evening. The last several runs of the HRRR have shown an area of
showers and thunderstorms developing and moving into the southeast
corner of WA and the central ID panhandle around 8pm. The runs
have also shown a gust front associated with the convection with
gusts as high as 50 mph. The only kink in this scenario is they
are waffling on where to place the gust front. It has varied from
the Tri-Cities to just south of the Camas Prairie. For now have
increased our chance of precipitation across this area from 8-11pm
and put in some general gusts to 20 mph. But if the gust front
stays together the aforementioned areas could see damaging winds
tonight. Definitely something we will be keeping an eye on as the
evening progresses. Moisture will continue to stream in through
the overnight hours with weak instability remaining across the
south. It will be priming the environment of what is to come
Monday... /Nisbet
...Severe Thunderstorms possible on Monday as well as Flash Flooding....
Significant pattern change is still expected during this period as
anomalously deep 500 mb low, currently off the NorCal coast,
moves northward toward the region. The models remain fairly
consistent with timing and move the associated shortwave trough
into central Oregon by morning and just north of the Washington-
Oregon border by afternoon. As the trough moves northward it still
is expected to attain a negatively tilted orientation...which is
typically a good indication for a potential severe weather event.
So how do we expect tomorrow to develop?
* Morning weather...Moisture and instability will continue to
creep into southern Washington overnight as the mid-level flow
backs to the south. Surprisingly the GFS and 12z NAM model
solutions remain consistent in placing an unusually high amount
of potential instability in the Blue Mountains by 12z. Surface
CAPES ranging from 500-800 j/kg and MUCAPES of 1500-2000
continue to be forecast in this region. Whether or not we can
tap into that potential instability remains to be seen as there
is a little bit of convective inhibition. However that may be
overcome by very strong upper level difluence ahead of the
incoming low with good mid- level ascent ahead of the trough.
Given this setup we expect to see some elevated convection to
move northward across the WA/OR border overnight and spread
northward through the morning. It may not make it much north of
Highway 2 by late morning. If the model stability indicies are
correct, these storms would be stronger than what we typically
see for the morning in this region. While we don`t necessarily
expect severe weather in the morning...it would not be
surprising to get some small to moderate hail reports and
perhaps some gusty winds. As is typically the case, this
elevated convection will begin to taper off and weaken as it
moves north into more stable air.
* Afternoon and evening weather...This is where we will likely see
most of the weather action. As previously mentioned the upper
level trough crosses the WA/OR border and brings rather strong
ascent and deep ascent to most of the Inland NW. Meanwhile
precipitable water values climb to just over an inch which is
quite unusual for the first day of June. This increased moisture
will lead to a rapid destabilization of the atmosphere
especially if we receive good daytime heating. Since the morning
convection should be nearing the Canadian Border by
midday...there should be a good potential for sufficient
afternoon heating. This results in widespread MUCAPES in the
1500-2200 j/kg range which is about as good as it gets around
here for instability. Most of this instability will occur over
the eastern third of Washington, the Idaho Panhandle, and
perhaps near the Cascades. The shear is not terrific with 0-6 km
values generally topping out around 20-25 kts with the best
values over the Panhandle. This is where we`d expect to see the
biggest risk of severe weather, but given the forecast CAPES it
could occur over the eastern third of Washington as well. The
main threat based on the forecast sounding will be large hail,
although we won`t rule out strong gusts as well however the
telltale inverted V sounding profile does not look likely. Aside
from severe weather, the other risk will be flash flooding.
Given the high precipitable water values over most of the region
as well as relatively slow steering flow these storms will have
the potential to produce flash flooding. In the Cascades the
risk is the greatest as the steering flow in this area will be
out of the southeast at a mere 5 mph or less. Needless to say
the burn scars will be at risk. Over the Idaho Panhandle the
steering flow also looks very weak. The threat of convection
will persist well into the evening as the trough moves toward
the Canadian Border. By this time most of the models consolidate
the convection into a widespread band extending from the
Cascades to the northern tip of the Idaho Panhandle. This is
when we would expect to see the most widespread precipitation.
By this point we couldn`t rule out severe weather but it looks
like we will rapidly transition to a heavy rain region. Based on
this pattern, a flash flood watch may be necessary. fx
Monday night through Thursday night...The wet and unsettled weather
will continue over the Inland Northwest during the first half of the
work week. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
prevail overnight Monday and into Tuesday as the tap into deep
moisture (Pwats in the 1.00 inch range) continues. Mid-level
instability remains elevated overnight so nocturnal thunderstorms
will be possible but bulk shear decreases significantly overnight so
the threat of strong organized storms will be low.
By Tuesday night the trough weakens, the subtropical moisture fetch
is lost and Pwats diminish closer to a half inch which is normal for
this time of year. Daytime heating will allow isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop during peak heating. Shear remains rather
low for most of the forecast area except for the southeast corner
where marginally higher values are forecast. The region will remain
under a broad cold pool aloft which will keep a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday, but mainly over
the higher terrain. Daytime temperatures will start out slightly
below seasonal normals then gradually trend warmer through the week.
/Kelch
Friday through Sunday...Models are in good agreement that by next
weekend an upper ridge will build over the region with a cutoff
low over the Southwest US. As it does so 850mb temperatures warm
considerably to 22-24C by next Sunday. Given the good agreement
between the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models have gone a bit warmer
than MOS guidance with valley highs warming into the mid 80s to
mid 90s. With the ridge in place dry conditions are
expected...except for a small chance of lingering showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening over the Idaho Panhandle
before the ridge builds in. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The atmosphere over the aviation area continues to
moisten with substantial destabilization and abundant triggering
mechanisms moving up from the south tonight and especially Monday
morning and through the day Monday. Of note are the thunderstorms
currently near KLWS and vicinity. This activity and additional
activity this evening are likely to impact that area over and
around KLWS with hail...heavy rain...infrequent lightning...and
gusty wind before subsiding close to 6Z Monday. As early as 12Z
Monday a strong front moves from south to north and is expected to
bring very powerful thunderstorms dropping hail and heavy rain
along with frequent lightning and very gusty wind over the
aviation area. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 77 53 67 50 68 / 10 70 70 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 58 78 52 65 49 67 / 10 80 80 60 60 30
Pullman 56 73 49 64 47 66 / 50 70 60 60 40 20
Lewiston 64 82 54 70 52 73 / 50 80 60 60 50 20
Colville 57 81 55 68 51 70 / 10 80 90 80 60 40
Sandpoint 54 77 53 65 49 67 / 10 80 100 70 70 60
Kellogg 56 75 50 63 46 66 / 10 90 90 80 70 30
Moses Lake 63 83 54 72 52 75 / 0 70 40 40 20 20
Wenatchee 64 79 54 70 52 72 / 10 70 70 50 20 20
Omak 57 81 54 69 50 71 / 0 70 90 80 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
348 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW OFF THE COAST...SHARPENING THE
UPPER RIDGE... RESTRICTING THE MARINE LAYER MORE TO THE COAST
AGAIN...AND ALLOWING INLAND TEMPS TO WARM. AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOOK FOR MORE CLOUDS...AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT NIGHT...AS WELL AS
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. SOME STORMS ON SUNDAY MAY BECOME STRONG. THE
COOLER SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK OR SO...THEN
SOME DRYING AND A BIT OF WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MODESTLY DEEP TROUGH TO DIG
OFFSHORE AND THEN SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND BE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE MOST INTERESTING
WEATHER DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION.
SUNDAY WILL SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REBOUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL OFF. 500 MB FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT WITH TIME. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING. ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM OVER CASCADES WILL HAVE
SOME GOOD BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS PLUS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. MOST OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE FROM INCREASING SPEED ALOFT AND NOT SO MUCH ROTATIONAL SHEAR.
STORM MOTIONS ARE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY SLOW AT NO
MORE THAN 10 KTS. PW VALUES ARE AT 0.85 INCHES AND HAVE SOME
MODERATE RAIN CAPABILITY AS WELL. THEREFORE...THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINS...0.50 INCH HAIL
WITH A NON-TRIVIAL CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...MAY
SEE CONVECTION BEGIN INITIATING AS FAR WEST AS THE EUGENE AREA BUT
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FAR WEAKER OVER THERE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEAR THE STRENGTH POTENTIAL FROM THOSE STORMS SHOULD ANY DEVELOP.
AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD DIPPING DOWN TO 500 MB APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR POTENTIAL
FOR THAT FOLD TO ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR SOME ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. WE HAD THE CASCADES COVERED WITH CHANCE WORDING ALREADY
BUT THESE EVENTS COMMONLY INITIATE ABOUT 75 TO 100 MILES FURTHER
WEST THAN MODEL DATA WOULD INDICATE. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BY ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THERE
MAY AN OCCASIONAL HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES BUT THE LACK
OF DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN JUST A PRIMARY IN CLOUD SHOW...AGAIN IF
ANY DO OCCUR.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD LARGELY END THE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
TRAILING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
IN OFFSHORE AND BEGINS FILLING AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY WARNING AT THIS POINT AND
LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN WITH THE OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL
SHAFT. /JBONK
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH. WEDNESDAY LARGELY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE
WASHINGTON ZONES POSSIBLY GETTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. THE
CASCADES STILL HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES OFFSHORE WITH RISING HEIGHTS. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY APPEAR DRY FOR NOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD
AND BEGINS TO TAKE A POSITIVE TILT OVER THE PACNW FOR DRY WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WAS QUICK TO RECEDE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EXPECT
MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN BY 23Z SAT-02Z SUN ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR COASTAL STRATUS WILL
LOWER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TO 1500 FT TONIGHT...AND TRY TO MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NOT REACH AS FAR INLAND EARLY SUN
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. /27
&&
.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NW TO N WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS...WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS PRIMARILY 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS SEVERAL 2 OR 3 FT SWELL SETS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANY OF WHICH COULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. EXPECT MAINLY
WIND-WAVE DOMINATED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A
SECONDARY LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELL. WEISHAAR/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
308 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible in the Idaho Panhandle and
in the Northeast Mountains early this evening with large hail,
gusty winds and heavy rains possible. Thunderstorm chances will
lessen on Sunday and are expected to be more confined to a small
portion of southeast Washington and north central Idaho.
Meanwhile most locations will see very warm temperatures with
highs in the 80s through the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will
increase markedly on Monday into Tuesday as a strong upper level
trough moves in from the south. Some of the storms on Monday could
be strong. Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the
remainder of the work week with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight: Short term models seem to
agree on the best shower and thunderstorm activity to continue
through the afternoon and then begin to tapper off quickly after
about 5pm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue...mainly impacting eastern WA and north ID. The best
chance of strong storms will be across NE WA and north ID. All
storms will produce torrential rains and frequent lightning.
However the stronger storms will also see gusty winds and large
hail. After 5 pm showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease,
and even more so during the overnight hours. Drier air is moving
through the Kittitas Valley and will continue to push east into
portions of the Columbia Basin. This will hinder showers and
thunderstorms from developing. The Cascades will also see a break
today/tonight. Activity will decrease overnight but some high
clouds will begin to stream in from the south. /Nisbet
Sunday and Monday...The strong upper level low currently over
central British Columbia will shift into Alberta on Sunday with
a shortwave ridge temporarily setting up over the area. With the
passage of the low...most of the moisture and instability will be
shunted into NE Oregon and central Idaho with the extreme
southeast portion of our forecast area...ie the Blues, Lewiston
Area, and Camas Prairie remaining subject to a continued chance of
diurnal convection. Nothing looks too impressive on Sunday with
little if any upper level forcing combined with weak upper level
subsidence associated with the shortwave trough. Meanwhile temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm with valley highs generally in the 80s
to lower 90s. The lofty precipitable water values of late will
take a temporary reprieve with most dewpoints falling into the mid
30s and 40s which is significantly drier than the 50s of the past
couple days.
...STRONG to SEVERE Storms looking more likely for Monday...
By late Sunday night or Monday the pattern changes significantly
as a deep offshore trough...currently off the California
Coast...heads into SW Oregon in the morning and then up the WA/OR
border by afternoon. The trough will take on a negative
orientation ( a classic orientation for severe weather over the
Inland NW) as it heads northward into our area resulting in good
upper level difluent flow combined with significant atmospheric
destabilization. Its interesting to note that as early as 5am
Monday...some of the instability parameters are quite impressive
along the Oregon/Washington border. The High Level Total Totals
suggest a good potential for elevated nocturnal convection moving
northward from Oregon and into the southern portions of Washington
and NC Idaho. Even more impressive are surface CAPES around 700
j/kg in the Blues with MUCAPES approaching 2000 j/kg. These are
impressive values for this region during the peak of the afternoon
heating but this early in the morning would be something rather
unusual and this could foretell the weather for the remainder of
the day. Model agreement is growing that this instability will
continue to spread northward through the day ahead of the incoming
trough. The trough will bring good lifting potential to much of
the area while the potential instability will likely allow
numerous thunderstorms to form. MUCAPES will approach or exceed
2000 over much of the region by afternoon. Meanwhile the shear
associated with the incoming trough wont be great...but with 0-6
km values of 20-30 kts over portions of the forecast area it is
certainly sufficient for strong/isolated severe development.
Precipitable water values will also near an inch...which is even
heavier than we`ve seen over the past several days and given weak
steering flow, especially near the Cascades we will need to be
concerned with more flash flooding potential as well. It would not
be surprising if Monday turns out to be the most active day of the
past several days. fx
Monday night through Saturday...the upper level low will take up
residence over the Inland Northwest through at least the midweek
period. Showers will be widespread Monday night into Tuesday as the
low pressure center is directly over the forecast area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible during peak daytime heating each day,
with the higher elevations more favored for development. Shower
coverage will diminish as the low drifts off to the southeast toward
the end of the work week with mostly dry conditions expected for
Friday and Saturday. Cool temperatures on Tuesday will start to
trend a bit warmer as shower coverage lessens. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: A very unstable atmosphere will remain fixed
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle
through at least 00z. This will lead to a chance of thunderstorms
by this afternoon...with the best chances likely impacting GEG SFF
and COE with smaller chances at PUW and LWS. We did not put
prevailing thunder in the forecasts since the HRRR has
consistently kept the bulk of the thunder north and east of GEG-
COE as well as east of PUW-LWS. Nonetheless not confident that
will pan out as the atmosphere is quite ripe for convection with
clearing skies moving in from the west-southwest which should tap
into this instability. Thunderstorms will be capable of small
hail, gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning strikes and
torrential rainfall. Drier air across the Cascades will quickly
eradicate the thunder chances between 00z-02z with the last
remnants hanging on over the northern Panhandle. Remainder of the
forecast should see dry weather with VFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 82 59 77 52 70 / 10 10 10 70 70 60
Coeur d`Alene 55 81 57 78 52 68 / 30 10 10 70 70 60
Pullman 54 80 56 74 49 66 / 10 10 20 70 60 60
Lewiston 62 88 62 82 56 73 / 20 20 20 80 70 60
Colville 53 84 56 81 54 73 / 20 10 10 70 80 80
Sandpoint 52 80 54 77 51 68 / 60 10 10 70 80 80
Kellogg 53 79 55 75 49 66 / 50 10 10 80 80 80
Moses Lake 56 87 61 83 55 75 / 0 0 0 60 50 50
Wenatchee 60 86 62 80 56 74 / 0 0 10 60 70 70
Omak 52 85 56 81 53 74 / 10 0 0 70 80 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOW PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF IT...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT SINKS ACROSS ILL BY LATE MORNING BUT THE TROUGH AXIS ISN/T
SLATED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TIL THIS EVENING. NAM POINTS TO
SOME ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY...BUT MINIMAL IF ANY INSTABILITY
AND NON-IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. THE NAM WOULD HANG ONTO SOME RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MESO
MODELS WANT TO CLEAR IT BY 18Z. GOING TO SIDE THE FORECAST TOWARD
THESE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AND HANGS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL SERVE TO
BOUNCE ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES SOUTH/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
850 BM TEMPS FALLING FROM NEAR 12C LAST NIGHT...TO 4 C BY 00Z MON.
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME
MID 30 LOWS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI. PATCHY/AREAS FROST IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS THOUGH...WHICH LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD EVENT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL ISSUE FROST ADV FOR TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WI. IF WIND SPEEDS LOOK LOWER...THE ADV COULD BE EXPANDED INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE IS COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST HINGES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S...WILL IT BE ENOUGH
TO HOLD AT BAY THE VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
SEND AT US.
MODELS ALREADY AT ODDS WITHIN AND BETWEEN EACH OTHER...AND EXPECT
THE DIFFERENCES TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS
LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY-NOT DRY QUESTION. WILL HAVE TO
LEAN ON CONSENSUS AS A RESULT...WHICH PAINTS A LOT OF SMALL
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH.
AS IT STANDS NOW...THE GFS FAVORS THE DRIER SOLUTION...USING THE
RIDGE TO KEEP/SHUNT PCPN CHANCES WEST/NORTH. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
EVIDENT ON WED WHERE THE EC/GEM TAKES A SHORTWAVE THEY ALL FORECAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EC THEN STAYS THE WET MODEL WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A SFC FRONT TO CONTINUE THE RAIN
THREAT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS WOULD FINALLY BREAK INTO THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING SOME SMALL PCPN CHANCES INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MVFR DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT.
BASED ON THE 30.15Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT KRST AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KLSE. WITH THE
RECENT RAINS...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH ALL
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND
THE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ADVECT THIS DRIER AIR IN HELPING TO
MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...INTO EASTERN NEB. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...FOCUS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV-
ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...EXITING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAP MODEL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/700-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING 700-500MB LAPSE RATES GOING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
RATES WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAND/BOG COUNTRY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THAT AREA...AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD/THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
70-75 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AT KRST THROUGH 30.08Z AND
AT KLSE THROUGH 30.10Z. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING AT BOTH TAF
SITES AND THEN SKIES WILL BECOME VFR AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
218 AM MST MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINES ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL AND
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON A SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY
ENTER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL
EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING SKC. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...OR EAST OF A KDUG-
KSAD LINE BETWEEN 01/20Z AND 02/03Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 01/17Z...AND THEN
WLY/NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TIL 02/04Z...
WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 02/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TODAY AND THEN EAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1012 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TONIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON
MIDSLOPES AND RIDGES.
RADAR ECHOES ARE EVIDENT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS EVENING,
BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. THE ONLY OBSERVATION WITH ANY RAIN WAS AT KNFL,
BUT IT WAS ONLY A TRACE. A FEW SITES IN THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE OF NEVADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FROM THE VIRGA
SHOWERS.
HAVE EXPIRED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ON TIME TONIGHT AS
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PYRAMID LAKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. DJ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE/LOW IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE (BRINGING
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING COPIOUS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SOME
HIGH-BASED AND MODEST CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. AS FAR AS WINDS, THEY ARE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AS THE THERMAL PACKING
INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BASIN
AND RANGE. WINDS ON LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE ARE SLOW TO PICK
UP, BUT THEY SHOULD DO SO SHORTLY AS GRADIENTS INCREASE AND
ENCOURAGE MIXING.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING, THE HRRR AND NAM STILL
SHOW MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF RENO. THIS MAKES SENSE AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTINUE TO WORK ON
COOLING AND DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY ANEMIC, SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 60-70 DEGREES SO ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (OR VIRGA) COULD EASILY DROP WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD DROP WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF THEY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY TO BE MEASURABLE GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION AND VERY DRY
LOWER LEVELS.
MONDAY, THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH MODERATE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS GOING AS THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
FOR PYRAMID LAKE ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH (AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE
NORTH) WITH NO UPPER FORCING OF NOTE AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY
ALOFT TRAPPED OVER OREGON.
TUESDAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT DECREASES AND THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK BRUSH-BY
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. SNYDER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND CUTTING OFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PROVIDES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE DUE TO HURRICANE ANDRES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
PUSH UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM
ANDRES NEXT WEEKEND AND BRINGING IT UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WE
ARE NOT FOLLOWING THIS FORECAST FOR NOW AND KEEPING WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE GFS MODEL IS NOTORIOUS FOR NOT FORECASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WELL. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
ALSO LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
SUIT. HOON
AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/NV WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OVER 50KTS. CHANCES OF TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
EAST REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ071-072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN UTAH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO KEEPS REGENERATING AFTER
SUNSET...APPEARS TO BE SOME FORCING MECHANISM THAT KEEP THESE
SHOWERS ONGOING. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN
COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A VERY WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS HELPING ADD A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OVER
RIDGES...WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. THE STRONGER CELL OVER NORTHEAST
UT SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY AND SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ADJACENT UINTA BASIN. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WILL TRAVEL EAST AND ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY...CO THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS TERRAIN INFLUENCE SO EXPECT
THE STORMS TO BE LESS INTENSE. THE REST OF THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER LITTLE WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A FEW OF THEM.
THE CENTRAL AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY. A NOTICABLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND PAC NW
TROUGH INTERACT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LEFT END (SOUTHWEST FLOW) OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
REIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE WEEK CONTINUES...KEEPING
DRIER AIR AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHICH WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCE. THE GFS, EC, AND CMC ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE PROGGING
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO GET CAUGHT IN THIS DOMINENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH ALL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE THERE COULD BE MAJOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOUDY AND WET
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
507 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN CAPTURING THIS WELL THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND USED IT AS THE BASIS FOR THE POP FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. A
LULL IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS AFTN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN
NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED TODAY...SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. IF IT MANAGES TO
LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA...TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TUE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TUE...SO
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS RAIN COULD HOWEVER BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL
FLOW THEN REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
KEEPING THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WITH NO BLOCKING PATTERN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE
AND AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
GENERALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIFR IN SOME OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z. -SHRA BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 11Z. A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
E/NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT TODAY. NE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TODAY. TIMING OF -SHRA BECOMING VCSH MAY BE QUICKER THAN INDICATED
IN TAF. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR
TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND ARE REACHING SCA LEVELS LONGER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSE SCA. THIS GOES THROUGH
15Z...ALTHOUGH WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN. SEAS HAVE ALSO
BUILT TO 5 FT AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES TO SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ELY FLOW 15-20 KT PLUS INCOMING
3-FT SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO 4-6 FT. GUSTS ARE ALSO CLOSE TO 25
KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST
INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE
AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF SHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES YESTERDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH FELL OVER A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 00Z WED AND ALSO INCLUDED THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT WHERE
SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED. THESE AREAS ARE
NOW PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE
EVE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THROUGH SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMPLICATED FCST THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM. A
CDFNT WAS SLOWLY MOVG SWD. N OF THE FNT, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH A NE WIND. EXPECT GENLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS SAW HVY RAIN ON SUNDAY, SO
EVEN STEADY RAIN CUD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS TODAY.
ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, AND WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES BTWN 1.5 AND 2 AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S), DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED SHEAR, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDER.
EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP IS THE BIG QUESTION. THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION AS WELL. MOST GUID AGREES
IT WILL MAKE IT THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION OF A SFC LOW ALG THE FRONT MOVG FROM SW TO NE DURG
THE LATE AFTN AS WELL. THIS CUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
WPC GUID AS WELL AS HRRR PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM NERN
MD THRU SERN PA AND THEN INTO CNTRL NJ. CONFIDENCE N AND S OF THAT
LINE IS LESS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED DECENT PRECIP
ON SUN, SO WILL ISSUE FFA ALG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND JUST NW AND SE.
IT IS PSBL IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S. PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERALL, NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. CONDS RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR ACRS
THE AREA. FOR KABE/KRDG, EXPECT GENLY MVFR/IFR THRU THE PD, BUT
THERE CUD BE SOME PDS OF VFR. THERE WILL BE SCT SHRA AND AFTN TSRA.
FOR EVERYONE ELSE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, AFTER SOME MVFR ERLY THIS
MRNG. THERE WILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA DURG THE DAY WHICH CUD LWR
CIGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN. THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT.
FOR KABE/KRDG/KTTN EXPECT A GENLY E TO NE WIND 10 KT OR LESS.
FOR KPNE/KPHL/KILG EXPECT A S WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE TO E
DURG THE AFTN.
FOR KMIV AND KACY...SHUD GENLY STAY S TO SE THRU THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ008>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
247 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME SPOTS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY WHERE THE EVENING`S
STORMS HAVE MOVED AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO UNDER A MILE IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW THE SAME
PATTEN AS THEY DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO PASS OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.
Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
Less confident in BR developing for TOP/FOE as 4kft cloud deck
noses in from the north, however T/Td spreads only 6F at this hour
and will keep the tempo group as an uncertainty. MVFR cig
development also looks unlikely. Southeast winds continue through
the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME SPOTS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY WHERE THE EVENING`S
STORMS HAVE MOVED AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO UNDER A MILE IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.
WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.
GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
THEN STALL IT OUT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
UPPER LOWS...BUT WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
EARLY THIS WEEK...FIGURE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE.
SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HOLDING ONTO POPS FARTHER WEST AND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. IF THERE IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WOULD STILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD
START TO DRY OUT...BUT WILL KEEP JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES AND
UP TOWARD THE KOWB AREA.
WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY...BUT AS WE TREND
TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE FELT IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM. MODELS
DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. HOW SOON THIS WOULD ARRIVE IN
OUR CWA IS ANYBODYS GUESS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH NO REAL TRIGGER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA
BUT WEAKENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD BUT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP IT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BUMP UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR FRIDAY
WITH THAT RIDGE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TAF ISSUANCE. CURRENT CEILINGS ON
THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE STARTING TO MOVE
TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS...SO KEPT THE CURRENT TREND IN PLACE. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE TAF...AS PERSISTENT
TROUGH WILL BE REFORMING TO THE WEST OF THE WFO TAF SITES THROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 82 64 83 64 / 20 10 10 10
DEQ 80 61 82 63 / 20 10 0 10
TXK 80 63 82 64 / 20 10 0 10
ELD 80 61 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 81 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 82 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 83 65 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS WITH LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004>006-009>011-013-084.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-007-012-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN. LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME. WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST. STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.
APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TEENS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE GUSTS SHOULD HANG ON AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN MN.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-13KTS DURING THE
DAY. GUSTS MAY HANG ON AFTER SUNSET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE AT 15-20 KT.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15-20 KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR DENSE FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND WET GROUND. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS TO LAST
UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.
MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE PINE BELT REGION
WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING
TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AND MAINLY EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD HELP
TO ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA.
FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA AND RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME MORE FOG POTENTIAL FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
CUT BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS A BIT AND REMOVED TSTM CHANCES. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WED INTO SAT. THE PATTERN WILL BE
ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE LOW MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE REPRESENTED BY 1.0 IN OR LESS PWS FOR WED-THU AND THEN
VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 IN FOR FRI. IT`S NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
HIGHER DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIP. WITH THE OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG FOR WED-THU AND GENERALLY LOW RH FOR EARLY
JUNE. DUE TO THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT
COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH
LOW/HIGHS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...WILL BE CONTENDING WITH LIFR RESTRICTION DUE TO
FOG/STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH OF THE GWO/HKS/JAN CORRIDOR. EXPECT FOG TO MIX
OUT BY AROUND 14-15Z WITH VFR CATEGORY CIGS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTN.
PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL BE IN THE HBG AREA FOR THIS AFTN AS
DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR HELPS TO REDUCE THE THREAT ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS WE GO FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 82 64 83 63 / 25 9 13 6
MERIDIAN 82 63 84 61 / 40 20 14 8
VICKSBURG 83 62 84 61 / 14 5 11 4
HATTIESBURG 85 66 88 65 / 53 25 15 12
NATCHEZ 82 63 83 63 / 19 7 13 4
GREENVILLE 79 63 82 62 / 10 5 8 3
GREENWOOD 80 61 82 61 / 14 5 9 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ048-049-
054>058-061>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Upper LOW churning over extreme south-central MO this evening has
ejected an upper level disturbance to the northeast of the LOW
center, near KMDH in southern IL, and has resulted in light rain
with some measurable. The expected track of this disturbance
should follow the southeast edge of the CWA boundary in IL,
leaving little more than scattered sprinkles for areas along a
Salem (KSLO) to Farmington (KFAM) line. This is in line with the
current forecast.
This situation is expected to continue until late Monday morning
when the LOW finally pulls away.
Showers continue to form over the mid-MO valley from near a
genesis region near KFSD in southeast SD and while the prevailing
flow will try to push them down into our region, little support to
the southeast to sustain and sheer distance of travel should
prevent any impact in our CWA.
Otherwise, E-NE flow at cloud level should keep cloudy skies over
much of the region overnight and well into Monday. Look for a
minimal temp drop tonight with a somewhat better rise on Monday.
Higher MOS temps for mins tonight and lower MOS for maxes on
Monday preferred.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Rain associated with an upper level disturbance and an inverted
surface trough should remain se of the taf sites late tonight. The
persistent stratus cloud deck will continue at the taf sites with
the current ceilings around 1500 feet lowering to around 1000
feet late tonight. Ceiling heights may be more variable at UIN as
some drier low level air has filtered into northern MO and west
central IL. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise on Monday to
around 2000-3000 feet Monday afternoon, and eventually into the
VFR catagory Monday evening. Nely surface winds will continue
through the period with a surface ridge extending from WI and MI
southwest into northeast MO shifting only slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower late tonight to
around 1000 feet, then rise to around 2500 feet Monday afternoon.
The cloud ceiling should eventually scatter out Monday night.
Nely surface wind will continue through the period.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE GENERATING MORE RAIN OVER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL BE A SOGGY...OCTOBER-LIKE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
IN CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
REGIME WILL THUS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TOPPED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A 40 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED ACROSS QUEBEC.
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES OF A THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING 24 HOUR
RAIN FALL AMOUNTS TO TWO TO THREE INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LUCKILY...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WERE SUCH THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SHOULD GREATLY BENEFIT FROM THE UNUSUAL FALL LIKE RAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 40S THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL PA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TONIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO UNDER A HALF INCH OR SO.
FARTHER WEST...ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP THICK LOW STRATUS IN PLACE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS. THE DEEP LOW
STRATUS AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO MIX
IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW STRATUS WILL INTERSECT THE HILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COOL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE HILLS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A DEPARTING FRONTAL WAVE WILL
LEAVE DRYING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND TRAPPED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED DRYING ON TUESDAY WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SOME CHANCE AT CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING INSTABILITY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. WITH A COOL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...+4 TO +6C 850
MB TEMPS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ON TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE LOW
60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY WEDNESDAY RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS ACROSS NY AND A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SUPPORT RETURN FLOW AND 850
MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. THIS WIND DIRECTION AND WARMER
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW 70S WITH
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN STORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+12C AND CORRESPONDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN
INCREASING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH A LACK OF ANY DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FORCING
APPARENT AT THIS TIME...DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. BY
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CROSSING FROM CANADA
ACROSS MAINE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 70S...BUT
RETURN FLOW WILL RECOVER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND BRINGS A
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT A MODEST IMPROVEMENT TODAY...BUT
CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING.
BUF/IAG/ROC...AT 06Z IFR AND ALTHOUGH OBS TO THE NORTHWEST SHOW
IMPROVING CIGS...EXPECT THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPING AND PROBABLY KEEP THESE SITE IFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS HINTED AT BY LOW LEVEL LIFT/QPF IN BUFKIT
AND BY THE HRRR MODEL. THESE SITES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TODAY...BUT THEN CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ART...STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AROUND 08Z WHICH SHOULD
LOWER CIGS TO IFR...BUT ONCE THIS RAIN MOVES OUT EXPECT THAT A 30
KT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOWNSLOPE AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS PROGRESSIVELY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
JHW...LOW CIGS MAY LOWER TO THE GROUND AND RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE INVERSION LOWERS. CIGS/VSBY
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY THIS MORNING...BUT PROBABLY WILL LOWER
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS QUEBEC. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE FOR CENTRAL NC BEGINS TODAY AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING A CUT-
OFF LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
THE FIRST SUCH VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING N-NE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL BY THE RAP MODEL AND PROJECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NC THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY SET-OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY LATER THIS MORNING (6-10 AM).
OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM.
STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADING AS FAR
EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
INVERTED V SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS (35-50 MPH) WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW-
OFF/CLOUDINESS. THINK ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AS HIGH AS MAX TEMPS RECORDED SUNDAY (UPPER
80S-90). OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE NW...EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
ANYTIME...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
UPEPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER
VALUES PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.8-1.9 INCHES IN OUR VICINITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT TIED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND-MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONSIDERED WEAK (LESS THAN
20KTS). SINCE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING
OCCURS OVER URBANIZED AREAS...LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE POPS STARTING OUT IN THE CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES IN THE MORNING...RAMPING UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON....AND SOLID CHANCE OVER THE SE COUNTIES.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE VA
BORDER AND EDGE SWD WITH TIME INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND EXPECTED EARLIER COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ONE-TWO CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED
TO TODAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE FRONT STALLING/BISECTING THE AREA... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE... A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TN VALLEY REGION WEDNEDAY MORNING...
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
WITH GOOD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER... OVERALL
DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO
MODEST AT BEST. THUS... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY INTO THE EVENING... WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE A FEW
STRONG TO MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
(GIVEN WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND NOT GREAT INSTABILITY... BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF)... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT
HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)... WITH PW`S
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY AND DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST IT WASHES OUT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM SEASON CAD... HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY RANGE FROM THE 60S/LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL RESEMBLE THIS PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE RANGE OF TEMPS NOT AS GREAT GIVEN THE DISSIPATING CAD
BOUNDARY. THUS... EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE
TRIAD TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 08Z.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK DUE TO A
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THE BULK OF THIS LOW STRATUS LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1...AFFECTING THE TRIAD
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BY 14-15Z.
THE HEATING OF THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE
TRIAD TERMINALS.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PLUS EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS HIGHLY PROBABLE. IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
EACH MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PWB/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...RIDGE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.
SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF
FOG. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SFC HTG ON MON AFTN WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEABREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SPC HAS A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 INLAND TO THE LWR AND MID 80S
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THU...BUT CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRI-SUN PERIOD. ADJUSTED
POPS MON NIGHT-THU PERIODS BASED ON INCREASED CONFIDENCE...MAINLY
FOR HIGHER POPS WED-THU WITH MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THOSE DAYS.
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FCST TYPICAL CLIMO 20/30 POPS FOR FRI-
SUNDAY.
MON NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A WEEK.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND: 12Z ECMWF MOVES WEAKENING UPR LOW OVER WRN
CAROLINAS FRIDAY...WITH WEAKENING UPR TROF PASSAGE OVER ERN NC
SAT-SUN. GFS IS FASTER TO WEAKEN UPR LOW AND MOVER UPR TROF ACROSS
AREA FRI-SAT...BUT THEN HAS STRONGER ENERGY DIVING INTO BACKSIDE
OF TROF RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPR LOW DEVELOPING OVER CAROLINAS
LATE SAT INTO SUN. FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AND LEANED
TO CLMO FCST PER ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS HAVING GONE CALM AT KEWN AND KOAJ. CURRENTLY HAVE A
PERIOD OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG AT KEWN AND WILL ADD AT KOAJ...BUT
WILL END AT 10Z PER THE TREND FROM RECENT NIGHTS. ISOLD DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT TOO LIMITED A
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTN THROUGH THU AS WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
OVER AREA. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SCT ACTIVITY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...WILL BUMP
UP WINDS SLIGHTLY ON THE SOUNDS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. THE
CURRENT 3KM HRRR IS HANDLING THESE HIGHER WINDS A BIT BETTER AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT. SEAS CONTINUE 3 TO 4 FEET WITH 9 TO 10
SECOND SWELLS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER AWAY AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. 3-4 FT SEAS CONT THROUGH MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING FRONT MOVING INTO AREA LATE
TUE INTO WED...THEN STALLING ACROSS WATERS AND DISSIPATING THU-
FRI. S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT INTO
WED...BECOMING E-SE FOR THU-FRI. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FT HEIGHTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...BTC/CTC
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
456 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR/IFR AND VISBILIIES WILL
BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES WITH BR AND -DZ. BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR MAY BE
OBSERVED AT WESTERN TERMINALS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.
ISOLATED NON VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003 OHZ007>012 OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOCUSING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, AND THE HRRR SHOWS THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED JUST TO OUR
WEST, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VSBY`S WILL ALSO BE REDUCED SPORADICALLY BY LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FINALLY PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
UPDATE...BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT HAS NOW RE-FOCUSED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST, IN AREAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY REACHING FROM NEAR
FRANKLIN, TN DOWN TO JUST EAST OF HSV. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SHOWERS,
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE MID STATE, THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN
HAS NOW DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT, WILL ISSUE ONE MORE UPDATE OF OUR
SUITE OF PRODUCTS TO INDICATE THIS EXPECTATION.
AS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY, SFC DEW POINT FRONT HAS NOW BECOME ALMOST
STATIONARY, AND AT 03Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR DALE HOLLOW LAKE TO JUST
SOUTH OF BNA, TO NEAR MEM. HOWEVER, SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD
BEGIN ONCE AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
729 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.Synopsis...
Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Temperatures
warm back to around average for early June by mid-week.
&&
.Discussion...
Made some minor updates to this morning`s forecast. Onshore flow
has notably decreased early this morning. The onshore pressure
gradient from San Francisco to Sacramento (SFO-SAC) is only 0.6 mb
compared to the 2.4 mb it was 24 hours ago. Looking at satellite
imagery, marine stratus has only pushed into the delta with a few
low clouds developing south of the Sac Metro region. At this
point, doesn`t look like a strong enough push to warrant mention
of drizzle in the Sacramento vicinity so have removed that. Have
also removed slight chance of precipitation for the Sierra and
parts of the valley this morning. The HRRR and WRF hi-res models
indicate that isolated showers won`t develop until later this
afternoon/early evening for those regions. Any chance of precip
this morning/early afternoon should be limited to the Coastal
range and into the Northern Sacramento Valley (primarily Shasta
County). Otherwise, the forecast of cooler temperatures today is
on track as this weak low moves inland. JBB
.Previous Discussion...
Strong onshore flow that began Sunday afternoon with
the approach of the upper trough has continued overnight and
ushered cooler air inland across NorCal. The greatest cooling has
been over the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and in the
foothills and northern Sierra where temperatures are generally
5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Surface pressure
gradients peaked earlier in the night and are now trending lower,
and winds in many areas have lost their gustiness over the past
couple of hours.
The strong short-wave that initiated showers and thunderstorms
over northwest California Sunday evening is moving up into Oregon.
The upper trough lingers over the region into Tuesday with several
weaker waves embedded in the westerly flow, continuing the chance
for a few showers mainly across the northern third of the forecast
area. The northern mountains may see a few late day thunderstorms
as well.
The marine layer has deepened to over 3000 feet overnight leading
one to believe that we`ll see some stratus make it inland into the
Sacramento area around sunrise. However, T/Td spreads remain quite
wide and humidities are actually lower this morning in the
Sacramento region compared to Sunday morning, so inland stratus is
in doubt.
The trough weakens over the area Tuesday and Wednesday allowing
temperatures to warm up. Only limited mountain convection is likely
both days. Another closed low is forecast to drop southward into
the region on Thursday bringing another increase in showers and
thunderstorms over mainly the mountains.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Extended models are in good agreement with bringing a closed low
southward through the region and lingering over SoCal or offshore
on Friday. The jetstream redirects it`s core over Canada this
weekend and bypasses the Low, resulting in only subtle movement
to the northeast back over central California and into Nevada by
Monday. This dynamic forcing will generate convection, especially
afternoons and evenings this weekend and into Monday. Precipitable
waters become fairly high by this weekend, so thunderstorms may
produce some heavy rainfall with abundant small hail at higher
elevations. NCEP GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport is showing 1
to 1.5 inches. Depending on the Low position, storm motion could
be slow and aid in increased rainfall amounts over smaller areas.
JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions except stratus spreading through
southern Solano co. and potentially into central Sac co. (SAC and
MHR) between 13Z and 16Z. Marine layer near 3000 ft but mixing out
a bit with cigs abnormally high at SUU between 020 and 025 this
morn. Better likelihood of stratus into the Valley (SAC and MHR)
early Tue morn. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS OVER CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THEME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
IS SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TODAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION HOWEVER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER CT INTO NORTHERN MA. PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...YIELDING BEST OVERRUNNING ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-NORTHERN
MA. THUS SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...PWATS OF
1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES PROVIDES THE RISK FOR A HEAVY DOWNPOUR AT ANY
TIME.
TEMPS...COLD AIR DAMMING IN EARLY JUNE? THAT/S EXACTLY THE SETUP
WE HAVE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND 1030+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS COOL NE FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY CHILLY OCEAN TEMPS IN THE L50S IN MASS
BAY AND UPSTREAM IN GULF OF ME. THUS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH PERHAPS ONLY U40S HIGHER TERRAIN! MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR JUNE 1ST.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS VERY WELL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLED THIS IDEA
VERY WELL...BUT THE TIMING NEEDED SOME TWEAKING.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST THE RAINFALL TIMING...AND
TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...W.
====================================================================
SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THANK TO HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE
HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND
SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY.
IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED.
ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z.
OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY.
SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING
QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES
WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
10 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY A GOOD
FORECAST FOR TODAY. SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW RISK OF
ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN CT AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.
MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUE. RAINFALL NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY
THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH
COASTS OF MA AND RI.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE
ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE.
LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU.
FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH AREA
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND BAND MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. FIT WELL WITH
THE HRRR DEPICTION AND EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST WERE ALSO LOWERED INTO LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY. ONCE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH....A LULL IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN
NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED TODAY...SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. IF IT MANAGES TO
LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA...TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TUE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TUE...SO
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS RAIN COULD HOWEVER BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL
FLOW THEN REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
KEEPING THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WITH NO BLOCKING PATTERN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE
AND AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
GENERALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS...
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
E-NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT TODAY. E-NE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BACK TO THE N-NNE LATE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING
TO 5-10 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FT. INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS REMAINS THROUGH
15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CONDITIONS FALL BELOW BEFORE THEN.
NO CHANGES TO SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF ELY FLOW 15-20 KT PLUS INCOMING 3-FT SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO
4-6 FT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST
INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE
AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF SHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES YESTERDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH FELL OVER A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 00Z WED AND ALSO INCLUDED THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT WHERE
SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED. THESE AREAS ARE
NOW PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE
EVE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THROUGH SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MET
NEAR TERM...24/MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEPING CONDITIONS
COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO MOVE ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AND MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO
SEA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLED THIS
IDEA VERY WELL...BUT THE TIMING NEEDED SOME TWEAKING.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST THE RAINFALL TIMING...AND
TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THANK TO
HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE
WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND SHOWALTERS DROP
BELOW 0.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY.
IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED.
ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z.
OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY.
SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING
QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES
WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY
THUNDER.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH
COASTS OF MA AND RI.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE
ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE.
LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU.
FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAVE LED TO A THICK LOW CLOUD DECK AND COOLER TERMEPRATURES.A
SUNNY SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY REGIONS IN THE DELMARVA
WILL GO WELL INTO THE 80`S WITH AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO
NORTHERN NJ STAYING INTO THE 60`S.
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TODAY. SEVERAL WRF`S THE HRRR AND RAP ALL SUGGEST
NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WHERE DOES IT SET
UP? OUR THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA NEAR PHL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NJ. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO
EXPAND THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN INTO DELAWARE. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHEAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S. PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM RDG TO PHL FURTHER
EAST. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS HAS BROUGHT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS
FROM ILG TO MIV AND ACY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN IFR AND EVEN VFR THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z FROM PHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1008 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAVE LED TO A THICK LOW CLOUD DECK AND COOLER TERMEPRATURES.A
SUNNY SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY REGIONS IN THE DELMARVA
WILL GO WELL INTO THE 80`S WITH AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO
NORTHERN NJ STAYING INTO THE 60`S.
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TODAY. SEVERAL WRF`S THE HRRR AND RAP ALL SUGGEST
NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WHERE DOES IT SET
UP? OUR THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA NEAR PHL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NJ. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED SOUTHEAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S. PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL
REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE
POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH
OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE
FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM RDG TO PHL FURTHER
EAST. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS HAS BROUGHT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS
FROM ILG TO MIV AND ACY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN IFR AND EVEN VFR THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELVOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z FROM PHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE
AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-012>022-
025>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
01/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA POSITIONED SOLIDLY BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MEAN RIDGING CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH GOES-EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING A
TONGUE OF PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES POISED TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE CAP FORECAST TO WEAKEN INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80 TO LOWER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WELL-DEFINED LAND BREEZE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE
STEADILY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE TWO SURFACE
FEATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
OR OUTFLOW INDUCED BY GULF COAST SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTICALLY, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON
WITH A RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL FOCI
PRESENT TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. INDEED, BOTH THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RAP AND H3R SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CRASH WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE AS MIXING INTENSIFIES, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AVAILABLE FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DESPITE HIGH PWATS. FOR THIS REASON, IT IS NOT EXACTLY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OR EVEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY POINTING TOWARDS LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THEN PREVIOUS
RUNS WITH BOTH THE RAP AND H3R KEEPING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
CONFINED WELL INLAND TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ITSELF AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TODAY.
GIVEN THE VARIOUS CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VALUES WILL BE
LOWERED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA MAY VERY WELL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT TODAYM SO WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE
CLUSTERS ARE UNLIKELY. WFO GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. THIS LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DCAPE AVAILABLE, BUT THE HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...
* LOWERED COASTAL POPS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SPEED OF THE SEA
BREEZE.
* RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND BASED ON THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA.
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY PER RAP/H3R SOUNDINGS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
CONVECTION GOING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE CERTAIN HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SETTING UP A DEEP/MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THE CHANNELED VORTICITY PROVIDES STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/EARLY ONSET ON
PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TO OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
ANY MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT TO OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ILL-DEFINED FRONT
WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE INFLUX OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. AGAIN...STRONG OR
EVEN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP WITH LIMITED INSOLATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...A
MINOR FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO
KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY...THEN OPEN UP INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL THEN
TRACK THROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE...GREATEST DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT SLIGHT MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING EAST SWELL.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND STALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN PUSH FARTHER
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SOUTHERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGING WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OUT TO 20 NM...AND 2-3 FT
BEYOND. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL
ENERGY AND THE FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.
Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds
east less than 10 kts are expected through the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THE LOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
THEN STALL IT OUT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
UPPER LOWS...BUT WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
EARLY THIS WEEK...FIGURE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE.
SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HOLDING ONTO POPS FARTHER WEST AND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. IF THERE IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WOULD STILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD
START TO DRY OUT...BUT WILL KEEP JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES AND
UP TOWARD THE KOWB AREA.
WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY...BUT AS WE TREND
TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE FELT IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM. MODELS
DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. HOW SOON THIS WOULD ARRIVE IN
OUR CWA IS ANYBODYS GUESS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH NO REAL TRIGGER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA
BUT WEAKENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD BUT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP IT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BUMP UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR FRIDAY
WITH THAT RIDGE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND
LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS AT KPAH AND KOWB TODAY...BUT KCGI AND
KEVV MAY EVEN CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AGAIN TONIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
742 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.AVIATION...
ALL BUT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS STARTING OFF THIS
MORNING WITH IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND EXPECTING THESE
LOWER SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY WITH THE
CLOUD CEILINGS LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT OR ABOVE AND THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES BY 01/15Z. WITH THE COMBINATION
OF WET SOILS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 02/09Z./06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 82 64 83 64 / 20 10 10 10
DEQ 80 61 82 63 / 20 10 0 10
TXK 80 63 82 64 / 20 10 0 10
ELD 80 61 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 81 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 82 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 83 65 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE MADE TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE
TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER TUCKER
COUNTY...WITH OBS JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE 70`S AND TO THE
NORTH IN THE 50`S. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A WAVE RIDES ALONG IT. COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION LOCKED IN LOW STRATUS...WITH VERY
LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS TODAY. THUS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
REALIZE HIGHS IN THE 60`S FROM I-70 NORTHWARD.
AREA OF MOISTURE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO AS OF THIS HOUR. USING TIMING FROM THE RAP AND THE
HRRR...THIS SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE HEATING A DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY BUMPING
POPS UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES A TOUCH FOR THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY
REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.
THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004>006-009>011-013-084.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-007-012-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS OF LATE...IS SLOWLY
RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO
DRIFTING TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE TN VLY.
MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE SOARED TO 80+ BY 10 AM...AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD MID 80S WITH SEVERAL 90-91 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70...WILL DRIVE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TODAY AS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME
TIME...SLOWLY LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEP...AND SOME WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT THIS
AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AND MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES ONLY LATE IN THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT
TODAY...WITH THE HRRR VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION INLAND THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE NSSL WRF AND NAM/ARW ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED.
HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARBY IN
WV IMAGERY...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TAP THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE BLENDED THE MODELS THEN...WITH SCHC ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING WEST...RAMPING UP TO CHANCE THIS EVENING WELL INLAND.
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER FORCING...BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
A WARM NIGHT FORECAST AS SW WINDS DRIVE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND AT
LEAST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INHIBITS LONGWAVE COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP ONLY TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...WARMEST ALONG
THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFF SHORE
ON TUES AS CUTOFF LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED WITH A SOLID STREAM OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT VORT
LOBES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND SUPPLY
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND STRETCHING IT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
COMES AGAINST THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND CUTOFF LOW. IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE STALLING LATE
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOCALLY AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SE TO E AT THE SFC AS FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY MAY SEE
MOST OF ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE BUT BY LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW NUDGES EAST AND
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SHIFT FROM MORE SW-S TO
S-SE PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES UP TO THE
COAST. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA TUES AFTN THROUGH WED WITH THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WHICH IN TURN WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP CLOSER TO 70...WITH SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES.WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON TUES AS MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO START THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH
ON THURS AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
PLAGUING THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THURS INTO FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS FIRST TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST GIVING SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER...BUT NEXT ONE WILL FOLLOW BRINGING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE ENHANCED
SUPPORT BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LINGERING FRONT PRODUCING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES TEMPORARILY. OVERALL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BETTER CHC OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARMER WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION.THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING...BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG
AROUND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND THIS IS ALLOWING
THE SWELL TO ABATE. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW THE PRIMARY SWELL IS AT 3
FT/10 SEC FROM THE EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT IN THE WEAK
GRADIENT...STRUGGLING TO 10 KTS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN
SWELL-DOMINATED WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF
SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUES THROUGH
WED. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS FRONT STALLS
TO THE NORTH...REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY SEE
A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE. LONGER PERIOD UP TO
8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. THEREFORE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THROUGH EARLY WED BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN A MORE
PERSISTENT SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WED INTO THURS. SEAS
WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E-SE THROUGH
THURS INTO EARLY FRI AS LINGERING FRONT SLIPS SOUTH A LITTLE BIT
AND REMAINS STALLED WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ASIDE
FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT
OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE FOR CENTRAL NC BEGINS TODAY AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING A CUT-
OFF LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
THE FIRST SUCH VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING N-NE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL BY THE RAP MODEL AND PROJECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NC THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY SET-OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY LATER THIS MORNING (6-10 AM).
OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM.
STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADING AS FAR
EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
INVERTED V SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS (35-50 MPH) WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW-
OFF/CLOUDINESS. THINK ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AS HIGH AS MAX TEMPS RECORDED SUNDAY (UPPER
80S-90). OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE NW...EARLY MORNING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
ANYTIME...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
UPEPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER
VALUES PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.8-1.9 INCHES IN OUR VICINITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT TIED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W WHICH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND-MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONSIDERED WEAK (LESS THAN
20KTS). SINCE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING
OCCURS OVER URBANIZED AREAS...LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE POPS STARTING OUT IN THE CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES IN THE MORNING...RAMPING UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON....AND SOLID CHANCE OVER THE SE COUNTIES.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE VA
BORDER AND EDGE SWD WITH TIME INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND EXPECTED EARLIER COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ONE-TWO CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED
TO TODAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE FRONT STALLING/BISECTING THE AREA... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE... A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TN VALLEY REGION WEDNEDAY MORNING...
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
WITH GOOD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER... OVERALL
DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO
MODEST AT BEST. THUS... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY INTO THE EVENING... WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE A FEW
STRONG TO MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
(GIVEN WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND NOT GREAT INSTABILITY... BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF)... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT
HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP)... WITH PW`S
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY AND DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST IT WASHES OUT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM SEASON CAD... HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY RANGE FROM THE 60S/LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL RESEMBLE THIS PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE RANGE OF TEMPS NOT AS GREAT GIVEN THE DISSIPATING CAD
BOUNDARY. THUS... EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING
OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE HEATING OF THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE
TRIAD TERMINALS.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PLUS EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS HIGHLY PROBABLE. IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
EACH MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PWB/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...AND RAP 850MB-700MB RH FIELD SUGGESTS THESE MID-CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES GIVEN SUFFICIENT MIXING. SPEAKING OF MIXING...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO AROUND 850MB AND
30 KNOTS TO MIX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
THE CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES. ONE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...AND WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE
ND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK...AND ONLY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (FOR MAINLY NE ND). WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL APPROACH...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER ON TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
OCCUR PAST PEAK HEATING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH MODEL INDICATING 850MB
COMPUTED CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR
40 KNOTS). THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE MID- LEVEL LOW. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES (GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC TYPE FORCING EXPECTED).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AFTER DAY 5. LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DESPITE THE LATEST
ECMWF WAS NOT IN YET. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING WITH FASTER
SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREE FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE TO SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY BEYOND
12Z TUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. LOWERED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...CLOSE TO THE RAW 00Z GFS HIGHS. ALSO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND
CHANGES. THE TOLEDO AREA MAY START TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THEM TO BE THE WARM SPOT FOR THE DAY WITH A
HIGH NEAR 60.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN
EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE
REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON
THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC
OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE COLUMBUS
AREA...DRAWING UP MODEST AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY STALL THE
SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH/DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
STILL EXPECT SITES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS CIGS LIFT. WESTERN SITES WILL LIKELY RECOVER EARLIER THAN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST SITES.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
4 OR BETTER WAVES HANGING ON ON THE LAKE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON AND HOPE THINGS CAN SETTLE DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST. WAVE ACTION
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AS THE
HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
0H...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ009>012 AND OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...ADAMS/MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO
ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON,
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE COLUMBUS
AREA...DRAWING UP MODEST AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY STALL THE
SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH/DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
STILL EXPECT SITES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS CIGS LIFT. WESTERN SITES WILL LIKELY RECOVER EARLIER THAN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST SITES.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO
ALONG WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
SHOWING MORE LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON,
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY
LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING
RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR/IFR AND VISBILIIES WILL
BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES WITH BR AND -DZ. BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR MAY BE
OBSERVED AT WESTERN TERMINALS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.
ISOLATED NON VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES WILL DECREASE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ON THE OPEN
LAKE AS NE FLOW DECREASES TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR SHORE...WAVES WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST. WAVE ACTION WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LAKE AS THE HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOL CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLY LOW
HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK. MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING...AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID MORNING A WEAK LOW WAS INVOF MARTINSBURG WV WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD BETWEEN PHILLY AND ATLANTIC CITY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF PA COOLER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE
WHERE THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
THE MARYLAND BORDER COUNTIES FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY EASTWARD ARE
SEEING THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE UNDER A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. THE HRRR STARTS TO LIGHT THIS AREA UP AFTER ABOUT MID
DAY. WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL BE A RATHER GLOOMY START TO THE
FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH 60 OVER THE FAR NW...AND STRUGGLING TO HIT 70 OVER MUCH OF
THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FOCUSED
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING WAVE EDGES
TO THE NJ COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE SERN TERMINALS WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED
AT INVOF MDT/LNS INTO TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIRMED WITH UNV ATCT THAT THEY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE
AWOS...WHICH OCCASIONALLY IMPACTS THE AUTO OBSERVATIONS. THEY
HOPE TO RESOLVE IT TODAY.
AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
AIRSPACE THRU MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND 01/12Z 500 MB HEIGHTS INDICATED
THE NOSE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...BOOKENDED BY A TROF MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON THE E
COAST AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWINGING ONSHORE NEAR THE PAC NW
STATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CUMULUS OVER THE
CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF COCHISE COUNTY. MANY LOCATIONS WERE QUITE WARM
ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH 01/15Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. IN FACT...THE
01/15Z KTUS TEMPERATURE OF 86 F IS 6 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THAT SAID...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF SE AZ. SOME ELEVATED W TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
BASIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 600 MB MAY
PRODUCE SOME BUILDUPS MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AND EVENTUALLY A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LATEST RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF DO KEEP PRECIP NORTHEAST OF THIS CWA...HOWEVER
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY AREAS OF
PRECIP WHICH DO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR VERY NEAR TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO WELL.
THEREFORE...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL
EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING SKC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY BETWEEN 01/20Z AND 02/03Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 01/17Z...AND
THEN WLY/NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TIL 02/04Z.
THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND
WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 02/04Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TODAY AND THEN EAST OF TUCSON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL AND
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON A SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY
ENTER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS
MODEL. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
222 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.Synopsis...
Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Drier weather
for Tues-Wed. Tropical moisture may impact our region later this
week.
&&
.Discussion...
Upper level trough continues to sit over far northwestern CA and
into the Pacific NW. Much of the precipitation so far today has
been just outside of our forecast area to the west and north.
Radar imagery shows that there have been some brief, isolated
light showers over the coastal terrain in Shasta & Tehama
counties, but nothing significant. The HRRR & WRF ARW high-res
models still in good agreement that any shower activity later this
evening will be mostly within Shasta County, especially between
5-10 pm.
The onshore gradient looks stronger early Tuesday morning than
it was today. Expect a better chance for marine stratus to push through
the delta and possibly into the Sac metro region tomorrow morning.
The upper trough will pull northward on Tuesday & Wednesday so not
much rain is expected for our CWA except for an isolated shower or
two in the mountains, again mostly within Shasta County. Daytime
highs on Tuesday will be about 1-4 degrees below normal across
interior NorCal with valley highs in the low to mid 80s...delta &
foothills in the 70s, mountains in the 50s to low 70s. Wednesday
temperatures will be fairly similar with a few degrees of warming
in the Northern Sacramento valley such that the Redding - Red
Bluff vicinity could be in the upper 80s.
The big weather change this week will begin on Thursday when
another low drops southward over CA. There will be slight cooling
and increased instability on Thursday. There will be a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms across our CWA (valley and
higher terrain). The other interesting variable is whether any
extra moisture from Hurrican Andres may push northward while the
low is over our region. This could enhance the chances for decent
precipitation. However, that variable is harder to predict at this
point so confidence is still low on the Thursday details. JBB
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Models in decent agreement that upper level wave will drop
southward across CA and close off near the SoCal coast by Friday.
Closed low is then progged to spin across the state into early
next week. Latest model runs, and GFS most aggressively so, hinting
at subtropical moisture tap and decent instability with this system which
would be enough to generate daily convection. GFS ensembles
showing PWATS in excess of 1 inch which is above 99th percentile
for this time of year. Highest chances for now look to be across
the mountains as typical with this sort of pattern, but might even
be enough for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
valley at some point during the period. Confidence in this
occurring is fairly low at this point but will definitely be
something to watch as system is better resolved. Depending on the low
position, could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees from Friday to the weekend
and will hinge on resulting cloud and precip coverage but will
generally be close to normal. CEO
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected for most of the period. A few showers
possible across northern mountains/valley this afternoon and
evening with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible. Coverage will be
highly scattered. Marine layer has mixed out from this morning,
but still may see some stratus filter from the Delta into the Valley
(mainly SAC and MHR) early Tuesday morning with brief period of
MVFR cigs possible. Winds tonight and Tuesday will generally be
below 10 kts.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
LEAD TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
CREATING QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE HAD A SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
INTO THE 80`S AND SUNNY SKIES. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE 60`S WITH LOW THICK CLOUDS IN
PLACE. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE THE FRONT AND IN THE REGIONS WITH
THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RAMP-UP. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF, HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH
TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND FOR SOME
BACKBUILDING OF STORMS INTO THE DELMARVA AS WELL. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AN INCH OR TWO, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A STIFF ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES HAVE A CORRECT HANDLE OF THE
TRENDS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME QPF UNDER
1/2 INCH. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER TRENDS IN THE MET/MAV THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES WILL GO A TOUCH LOWER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN THOSE GUIDANCE SETS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A
RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK, AS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BASICALLY WASH OUT ONCE THE ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR RDG, ABE AND TTN... MAINLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
MILES AS WELL. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.
FOR ILG,ACY, MIV,PNE AND PHL...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS BUT DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR AND IFR
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT AT ACY AND OTHER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH MANY OF THE WIND OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING GUSTS TO/OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. A BATCH OF TSTMS APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS FURTHER WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
FOR MAINE STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SMW`S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT WITHOUT UNFAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES, CAPPED WIND GUSTS TO UNDER 25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT IN OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD SCA HEADLINE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
REACHING CRITERIA IN THIS MARGINAL SETUP.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLD.
SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
LEAD TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
CREATING QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE HAD A SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
INTO THE 80`S AND SUNNY SKIES. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE 60`S WITH LOW THICK CLOUDS IN
PLACE. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE THE FRONT AND IN THE REGIONS WITH
THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RAMP-UP. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF, HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH
TO SEE HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND FOR SOME
BACKBUILDING OF STORMS INTO THE DELMARVA AS WELL. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AN INCH OR TWO, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A STIFF ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES HAVE A CORRECT HANDLE OF THE
TRENDS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME QPF UNDER
1/2 INCH. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER TRENDS IN THE MET/MAV THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES WILL GO A TOUCH LOWER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN THOSE GUIDANCE SETS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A
RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK, AS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BASICALLY WASH OUT ONCE THE ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR RDG, ABE AND TTN... MAINLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
MILES AS WELL. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.
FOR ILG,ACY, MIV,PNE AND PHL...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS BUT DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR AND IFR
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT AT ACY AND OTHER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
CONTINUING WITH THE SCA FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENCY AROUND FIVE FEET WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW. WAVEWATCH MAY BE ABOUT A FOOT LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA WITH SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TILL 10Z TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN LONGER. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EASTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS THIS
EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT WITHOUT UNFAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES, CAPPED WIND GUSTS TO UNDER 25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT IN OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD SCA HEADLINE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
REACHING CRITERIA IN THIS MARGINAL SETUP.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLD.
SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND. 19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE.
DESPITE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING N/NW OF KPIA AND E OF
KCMI...NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER. END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 20Z THEN
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO KDEC AND KCMI BY AROUND 02Z. AFTER
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.
Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
MVFR ceilings should lift the next few hours and eventually
scatter out later this evening. There is a chance of isolated
elevated showers tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions should
prevail.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN.
SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW
CLOUDS WITH ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR EAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE
CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS
CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS .
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE STORM
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES. FOLLOWING THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW
AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG
WITH THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF
THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT
WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT
RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY YIELDS
400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER 600J/KG USING
78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T REALLY GET
PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND.
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
LOW CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST AIRPORTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED TIMES
OF HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS. AFTER 02Z TONIGHT...
CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP AGAIN WITH FOG AND LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER MOST
OF THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN AND SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY EWD...AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
NUDGE NEWD. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION...WHICH HAS LED TO RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLEVIATE
THIS AND HELP TO LIFT/SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS-IS. AREAS OF DEEP E TX/W CENTRAL
LA ARE CURRENTLY ALREADY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS OF 10 AM. WITH FCST MAX TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
AVIATION...
ALL BUT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS STARTING OFF THIS
MORNING WITH IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND EXPECTING THESE
LOWER SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY WITH THE
CLOUD CEILINGS LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT OR ABOVE AND THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 6 STATUTE MILES BY 01/15Z. WITH THE COMBINATION
OF WET SOILS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 02/09Z./06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OUR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE 60S WITH AN UPPER 50 OR TWO. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN REACH THIS NEXT HOUR. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY OUT
OF THE NE AND OUR VAD IS SHOWING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ONLY A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET DEEP WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW EVERYWHERE BY SE LA. THERE IS ALSO SOME NW
FLOW TSTM ACTIVITY IN DECAY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. THAT MAY
BRING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT IS JERMAIN TO THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT NOT FOR TODAY. THERE IS JUST A AN OLD BOUNDARY OR
TWO LYING OUT THERE FROM SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TEXARKANA OVER TOWARD EL DORADO. THE HRRR SHOWS A LIGHT PEPPERING
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AR/LA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THE OTHER
MODELS LIKEWISE HAVING SOME LIGHT QPF. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL WEATHER OF THIS TIME OF YEAR RIGHT IN PLACE
FOR THE NEW MONTH LIKE NOTHING EVER JUST HAPPENED TO RAISE THE
RIVERS. THE NEXT AREA WIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY
WEEK...COULD BE THE WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 84 64 83 64 / 20 10 10 10
DEQ 79 61 82 63 / 20 10 0 10
TXK 80 63 82 64 / 20 10 0 10
ELD 80 61 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 81 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 82 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 87 65 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
629 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRIMARY CHANGE WITH 630PM UPDATE IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO. WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN HAS REMAINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO. SYNOPTIC MODELS STILL RESOLVE THIS AREA OF RAIN POORLY...AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IT DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS CONSIDERING EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT
REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH.
SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL WAVE
EXITS...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES HANGING ON TO ISOLATED SHRA
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME..CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PIT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL THEN EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE
ON WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE MOISTURE
CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS.
BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP
BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA-
WIDE. ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY
WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURES REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT...BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE DAY AND A
PESSIMISTIC OVERALL OUTLOOK WAS RETAINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES
THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH.
SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AS FRONTAL WAVE
EXITS...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES HANGING ON TO ISOLATED SHRA
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME..CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PIT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL THEN EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE
ON WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE MOISTURE
CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS.
BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP
BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA-
WIDE. ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY
WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
311 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETTLES IN
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE IT WELL INTO OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MAINTAIN QPF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY
REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CLOUDS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE PATTERN WILL BREAK BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ABOVE 3KFT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND VERY LITTLE MIXING TO SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT THE CLOUD DECK. SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO
SEVERAL TAF SITES SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVE WHICH COULD SUPPORT
PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYING OTHERWISE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PESSIMISTIC TREND
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.
THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1116 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
.UPDATE...CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS BEEN LIFTING AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN
IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE REGION BUT I DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN
COVERAGE TODAY...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PW VALUES PER THE 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING SHOW A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH VALUES AROUND 1.17
INCHES. A DRIER AIRMASS IS NOTED ON OTHER AREA RAOBS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLIX...WHICH IS SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
LOCAL MICROBURST ANALYSIS SHOWS A MEAGER POTENTIAL AND THIS IS
REFLECTED ON HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AROUND THE I-59
CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING GIVEN
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TO SLOW THE WARMING. I ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
REDUCE MORE IN THE WEST AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS...THOUGH VISBYS HAVE IMPROVED. EXPECT
CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HBG/MEI...ELSEWHERE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY
TODAY. ADDITIONAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES MORNING. /DL/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR DENSE FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING AND WET GROUND. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS TO LAST
UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.
MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS MORNING AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE PINE BELT REGION
WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING
TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AND MAINLY EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD HELP
TO ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA.
FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA AND RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME MORE FOG POTENTIAL FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
CUT BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS A BIT AND REMOVED TSTM CHANCES. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WED INTO SAT. THE PATTERN WILL BE
ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE LOW MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE REPRESENTED BY 1.0 IN OR LESS PWS FOR WED-THU AND THEN
VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 IN FOR FRI. IT`S NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
HIGHER DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIP. WITH THE OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG FOR WED-THU AND GENERALLY LOW RH FOR EARLY
JUNE. DUE TO THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT
COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH
LOW/HIGHS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 82 64 83 63 / 11 9 13 6
MERIDIAN 82 63 84 61 / 40 20 14 8
VICKSBURG 83 62 84 61 / 10 5 11 4
HATTIESBURG 85 66 88 65 / 53 25 15 12
NATCHEZ 82 63 83 63 / 10 7 13 4
GREENVILLE 79 63 82 62 / 10 5 8 3
GREENWOOD 80 61 82 61 / 10 5 9 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
WE ARE FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS WITH THIS DISCUSSION...THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF OUR SEVERE PARAMETERS SOMEWHAT
DISJOINTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IN
JUST HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE REST OF THE DAY IS LOW. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PER CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WITH
INCREASING BULK SHEAR TO GENERATE SOME STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANTICIPATED. WATCH 246 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE MAY NEED TO ADD BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
AT 2 PM WE HAD SOME CELLS FIRING QUICKLY OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS
AND BELTS...WITH ANOTHER REGION OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPING NEAR COOKE
CITY IN THE BEARTOOTHS. HRRR DID GREAT LAST NIGHT...BUT IS ALL
OVER THE MAP AND TERRIBLY INCONSISTENT WITH ITS RUNS TODAY. OTHER
MODELS DISAGREE ON SEVERAL FEATURES AND TIMING AS WELL. BUT TAKING
MATTERS FROM CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE I AM ANTICIPATING
STRONGEST CONVECTION BETWEEN 4-7 PM AND TO BE SITUATED FROM
ROUNDUP THROUGH BILLINGS TO NEAR THE BIG HORNS MOVING NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING
OUT EAST AS WELL.
ON THE OTHERSIDE OF THINGS...WEAKER CONVECTION FIRING NOW MAY
PRODUCE COLD POOLS LIMITING CHANCE OF SEVERE CELLS LATER. BUT
THIS HARD TO PREDICT AHEAD OF TIME...SO WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO A CUTOFF
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA. SEVERAL
IMPULSES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS GIVES MUCH OF
THE AREA AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HELPING THIS WILL BE A
GOOD INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. EACH AFTERNOON SOME INSTABILITY
EXISTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL UPDATE TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR
AND WILL PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/074 048/070 051/067 052/073 054/074 053/078 054/074
63/T 32/T 34/T 34/W 44/T 43/T 33/T
LVM 049/069 045/068 048/067 047/071 050/071 050/075 050/072
65/T 44/T 45/T 45/W 44/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 054/077 047/073 051/070 052/076 054/076 054/080 054/077
53/T 32/T 35/T 34/W 44/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 058/075 048/071 051/068 053/075 056/075 054/080 054/076
53/T 21/B 25/T 44/W 55/T 42/T 22/T
4BQ 057/078 049/072 052/068 053/074 056/074 054/078 054/076
32/T 32/T 45/T 34/W 55/T 42/T 33/T
BHK 055/076 046/070 046/067 049/072 052/074 051/077 050/076
63/T 31/B 25/T 33/W 55/T 42/T 22/T
SHR 050/075 045/069 048/068 049/072 051/072 050/075 052/073
33/T 32/T 54/T 44/W 55/T 43/T 44/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
156 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENT SYSTEM KICKS OFF FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT STARTING TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS PUSHING INTO IDAHO AND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT STORMS FIRING UP.
MOISTURE EVIDENT WITH THETA-E ANALYSIS SHOWING A BULLSEYE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS...WHERE STORMS ARE FIRING NOW IN VICINITY OF 4000 CAPE...
AND THE AXIS PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE MT AND ND BORDER. PARAMETERS
AND TIMING ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE BEING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED VERBAIGE
FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
ONE MINUTE GOES-14 IMAGERY (THANK YOU CIRA-RAMMB) HAS BEEN GREAT
TO USE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR REALLY SHOWING WHERE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE THINGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. HRRR IS INDICATING CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN MILES CITY
AND GLENDIVE BY 21Z AND WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CELLS TRYING TO FORM...THEY JUST AREN`T CUTTING IT YET. THE SSEO
PAGE FROM SPC SHOWED THIS EARLIER TODAY GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT
THINGS WILL FIRE UP OVER FERGUS COUNTY AREA AND MOVE INTO
PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER 5-6 PM.
A SPECIAL UPPER AIR RUN WAS RELEASED AT 19Z AND DATA SHOULD BE IN
SHORTLY. DATA THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS THAT PWATS HAVE DECREASED BY .2
OF AN INCH SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BIT OF A DRY SOUNDING BELOW
400 MB. THE SPEED SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST STORMS TO BE
MULTICELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR LINE IN OUR CWA WITH A GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF LARGER HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT TRANSITIONS INTO A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KGGW WESTWARD. SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH
OF RAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT`S PUSH INTO CANADA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK WAVES INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE INTRODUCING A WARMING TREND AND
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IT WILL HELP TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
NORTHWESTERLY...INTRODUCING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL TWEAKS THAT WERE MADE WERE
SIMPLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE SW FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SW FOR
THURSDAY...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THAT COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE... SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY
DRY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY MID WEEK AND THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...BUT IT IS SLOWLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS IS BEING DISPLACED BY A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VLY.
CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS GA AND CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLE HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS...BUT HAS STRUGGLED THUS
FAR WITHIN THE ILM CWA. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE HAVE CREATED
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER HEATING HAS DRIVEN BETTER INSTABILITY...WHICH IS ACTING
IN TANDEM WITH AT LEAST RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES THAN FURTHER
EAST IN THE CWA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE CONVECTION
OUT WEST WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER AND THEN ADVECT NE INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY DUE TO ASSISTANCE OF SHORTWAVE PVA. STILL CANNOT TRULY
IDENTIFY ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AROUND THE PRIMARY CUTOFF...BUT
THEY MUST BE THERE...AND ALL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT. HAVE
BUMPED POP TO HIGH-CHC FOR WEST OF I-95 THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND...BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING. CONVECTION WILL ERODE A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND
SPREAD EAST TOWARDS DAWN AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND EVEN BETTER
MOIST ADVECTION PUSH CLOSER.
CONTINUED SW FLOW AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL
KEEP MINS ELEVATED TONIGHT...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 70...LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES. MOS NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND HAVE BLENDED THE MET/MAV FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
THE CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO DRIFT EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING THE APPALACHIANS WED AND WED NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT CERTAIN...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ONCE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THEY WILL LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE MID AND LATE EVE. THUS...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY POINT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION...BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE ENHANCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN
BANDS/LINES...WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND
PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IS THE CASE UPSTREAM TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY
LEAD TO A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OR TWO.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER INLAND AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY 90 DEGREE
READINGS EITHER DAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT. LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THE
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE
RESIDUAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
INCLUDE A BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND WAVERING INLAND
FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS
FEATURE BASICALLY WASHES OUT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST AND THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH THE
SEABREEZE. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY TRENDING DOWN TO GOOD CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL LIKELY CRATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLO/LBT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS MODELED BY
THE RECENT HRRR AND WRF. HAVE ADDED TEMPO -TSRA TO THESE TWO
TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION...BUT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FINALLY DEEPENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
FEATURE IS DRIFTING EAST HOWEVER...AND THE SWELL IS SLOWLY ABATING.
WHAT HAD BEEN A 4FT/11SEC EASTERLY SWELL HAS EASED TO 3FT/9SEC...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS HAVE
DROPPED TO 2-3 FT...AND THE LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
MAINTAIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM IN A SWELL-DOMINATED FASHION.
SO...ALTHOUGH THE SWELL IS EASING...IT IS DOING SO ONLY VERY
SLOWLY...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT...FROM THE N AND W...WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ILL
DEFINED LATE WEEK. VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
OCCUR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUE WITH MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE ON SE AND THEN S DURING THE DAY WED AND
WED NIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST WED NIGHT...UP TO
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE WAVERING
FRONT THAT INITIALLY IS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH THE
SAME PROGRESSION OF EVENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FRONT.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL FOUR FOOTER OR TWO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...HAVE BUMPED POP TO HIGH CHC FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. STILL HAVE DIFFICULT
LOCATING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WV IMAGERY...BUT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPANDING AND DEEPENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...SO CLEARLY SOME PVA IS THERE. HRRR/WRF/NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POP HAS BEEN
ADDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM BELOW:
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS OF LATE...IS SLOWLY
RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO
DRIFTING TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE TN VLY.
MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE SOARED TO 80+ BY 10 AM...AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD MID 80S WITH SEVERAL 90-91 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70...WILL DRIVE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TODAY AS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME
TIME...SLOWLY LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEP...AND SOME WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT THIS
AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AND MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES ONLY LATE IN THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT
TODAY...WITH THE HRRR VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION INLAND THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE NSSL WRF AND NAM/ARW ARE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED.
HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARBY IN
WV IMAGERY...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TAP THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE BLENDED THE MODELS THEN...WITH SCHC ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING WEST...RAMPING UP TO CHANCE THIS EVENING WELL INLAND.
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER FORCING...BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
A WARM NIGHT FORECAST AS SW WINDS DRIVE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND AT
LEAST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INHIBITS LONGWAVE COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP ONLY TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...WARMEST ALONG
THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFF SHORE
ON TUES AS CUTOFF LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED WITH A SOLID STREAM OF DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT VORT
LOBES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND SUPPLY
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW
CUTS OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND STRETCHING IT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
COMES AGAINST THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND CUTOFF LOW. IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE STALLING LATE
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOCALLY AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SE TO E AT THE SFC AS FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY MAY SEE
MOST OF ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE BUT BY LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW NUDGES EAST AND
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SHIFT FROM MORE SW-S TO
S-SE PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES UP TO THE
COAST. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA TUES AFTN THROUGH WED WITH THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WHICH IN TURN WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP CLOSER TO 70...WITH SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES.WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON TUES AS MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO START THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH
ON THURS AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
PLAGUING THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THURS INTO FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS FIRST TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST GIVING SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER...BUT NEXT ONE WILL FOLLOW BRINGING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE ENHANCED
SUPPORT BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LINGERING FRONT PRODUCING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES TEMPORARILY. OVERALL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BETTER CHC OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARMER WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ONE MORE DAY OF THIS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
OVER A WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL LIKELY CRATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLO/LBT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS MODELED BY
THE RECENT HRRR AND WRF. HAVE ADDED TEMPO -TSRA TO THESE TWO
TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
FINALLY DEEPENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND THIS IS ALLOWING
THE SWELL TO ABATE. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW THE PRIMARY SWELL IS AT 3
FT/10 SEC FROM THE EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT IN THE WEAK
GRADIENT...STRUGGLING TO 10 KTS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN
SWELL-DOMINATED WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF
SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TUES THROUGH
WED. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS FRONT STALLS
TO THE NORTH...REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY SEE
A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE. LONGER PERIOD UP TO
8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. THEREFORE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THROUGH EARLY WED BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN A MORE
PERSISTENT SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WED INTO THURS. SEAS
WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E-SE THROUGH
THURS INTO EARLY FRI AS LINGERING FRONT SLIPS SOUTH A LITTLE BIT
AND REMAINS STALLED WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ASIDE
FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT
OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ORIGINAL...PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
TO THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
SNEAKING UP FROM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...ONLY A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON
THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3- 4 DEGREES IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE BREAKS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO
DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE
TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE
VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SNEAKING UP FROM
CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ONLY
A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT
MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR
OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES
TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3-
4 DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE
BREAKS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO
DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE
TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE
VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
104 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY COME UP 3-6 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
UNDER OVERCAST DECK AND WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB ANOTHER 3. LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW
20-30 POP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL OHIO. TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE EARLIER POPS AND ADJUSTED SOME AREAS TO
JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT IS UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY
RAIN.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FOR TODAY EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
IMPLUSE WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO OHIO FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS US 30 SO WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE HRRR GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SPEAD VERY LIGHT PCPN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE GROWING BAROCLINC LEAF SEEN ON
THE IR IMAGERY AND INCREASING RADAR ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC
OVER KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO
IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS
AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO
VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF
SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE
SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
4 OR BETTER WAVES HANGING ON ON THE LAKE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON AND HOPE THINGS CAN SETTLE DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST. WAVE ACTION
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN LAKE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND WILL BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AS THE
HIGH REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
0H...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ009>012 AND OHZ089
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS
NORCAL INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS EVENING KEEPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
PRETTY WEAK (<500J/KG)...OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS
RIGHT WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING, SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN
THERE. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T GO AWAY COMPLETELY.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE OREGON
COAST. WE`RE STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WON`T BE
NEARLY AS GREAT AS IT IS TODAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT, SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CASCADES, TRINITY ALPS OR THE EAST SIDE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WEST OF
THE CASCADES, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND WARMER, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPILDE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY, JUNE 5TH THROUGH MONDAY, JUNE 8TH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO NEVADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL LINGER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, BUT TO WHAT
DEGREE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
FORECAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
IN SUMMARY, WE EXPECT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON LIKELY TO REACH THE
WARMEST VALUE THEY HAVE OBSERVED, THUS FAR, THIS SPRING THIS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 85-95F
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT WARMER.
THE CHALLENGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PINNING DOWN DETAILS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT WILL BE
POSED BY SPOKES OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE ANTICIPATE THAT
AREAS FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR AREAS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES, WE EXPECT THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGHING FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COMBINES WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HEATING.
OF COURSE, JUST AS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, THE PATH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND, THEREFORE, FORECAST DETAILS TEND TO CHANGE
A REASONABLE AMOUNT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO STAY TUNED FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN THESE DETAILS. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z. INLAND, MVFR WILL ALSO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THESE MAY LOCALLY LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY
TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT, MONDAY, 01 JUNE 2015...SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OFFSHORE...AND WILL COUPLE WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND
TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WIND DOMINATED SEAS WILL START BUILDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND VERY STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A
REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST...GIVING WINDS A STRONGER OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND DIMINISHING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
-MSC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
MAS/BTL/MSC/CZS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
541 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.
IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE JUST BEFORE 4 PM...AND AGAIN JUST BEFORE
5 PM.
21Z TAFS SENT. ADJUSTED THE TAFS SOME MORE. HARD TO SEE CIG COMING
UP AT JST...SO TOOK OUT HIGHER CIGS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS PAST OUR SITES NOW...EXCEPT
FOR LNS.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF AOO.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.
WED...VFR.
THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.
IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.
WED...VFR.
THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE
EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS
TIME.
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND
COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD
TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY
AFTERNOON.
IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN
THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER
FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT
FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS.
WED...VFR.
THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.
MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.
SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...LA CORTE