Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/31/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SE MTS...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ON AREA BURN SCARS. UPPER TROF ACROSS
NORTHERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE TODAY. MEANWHILE...FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO
EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST DEW
POINTS WILL FALL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...RESULTING IN A NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S...TO EVEN AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD CAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
...BUT IS STILL RESPECTABLE. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONGER TODAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SE MTS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS/NRN RATON
RIDGE AREA WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HANG IN.
SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING LAS
ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
CAPE...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO ENVISION THIS
RISK AREA BEING EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT TO INCLUDE THE SE MTS OF
CUSTER...HUERFANO COUNTIES AS WELL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TELLER AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LINGERS INTO THE AFTN. INTERESTINGLY...HRRR
IS STILL AGGRESSIVELY DRYING OUT SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS TELLER COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING THEM DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY 21Z.
GIVEN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT HRRR IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING...AND LEANED FORECAST GRIDS MORE TOWARDS THE UPPER 30 DEW
POINTS TO AROUND 40 THAT THE NAM AND RAP PORTRAY. SO EVEN FOR
TELLER/WRN EL PASO COUNTY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR AS
WELL AS OTHER BURN SCARS IN THE SE MTS...SUCH AS EAST PEAK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE HIT OR MISS...AND COVERAGE DOESN`T LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
CERTAINLY WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORCING FROM
THE TROF COMING IN...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONE OF
THESE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THESE AREAS. LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AT RISK TODAY.
MEANWHILE...ATMOS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH GFS MUCH WETTER FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS VS THE 00Z NAM12. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
GFS...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT IS AT THIS TIME...IT COULD
ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. WILL HANG ON TO POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT COVERAGE IN MODELS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z SAT. THINK BEST FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER 06Z. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE
WARMER CONDITIONS(ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY) IN
COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS(POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER) AS VARYING DEGREES OF
UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
INITIALLY...UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME-
FRAME. THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC REGIME WHEN COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWFA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FAVOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BOTH
DAYS AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED LIS...CAPES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH -4C...1200 J/KG AND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.
THEN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.
OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN ABOVE
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA
VICINITY OF KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR
TO MVFR...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AND BANK UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SE MTS AND NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE. CIGS IN THESE AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY BY SAT MORNING WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS.
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...INCLUDING KALS...TSRA
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SE MTS...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ON AREA BURN SCARS. UPPER TROF ACROSS
NORTHERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE TODAY. MEANWHILE...FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO
EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST DEW
POINTS WILL FALL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...RESULTING IN A NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S...TO EVEN AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD CAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
...BUT IS STILL RESPECTABLE. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONGER TODAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SE MTS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS/NRN RATON
RIDGE AREA WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HANG IN.
SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING LAS
ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
CAPE...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO ENVISION THIS
RISK AREA BEING EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT TO INCLUDE THE SE MTS OF
CUSTER...HUERFANO COUNTIES AS WELL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TELLER AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LINGERS INTO THE AFTN. INTERESTINGLY...HRRR
IS STILL AGGRESSIVELY DRYING OUT SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS TELLER COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING THEM DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY 21Z.
GIVEN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT HRRR IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING...AND LEANED FORECAST GRIDS MORE TOWARDS THE UPPER 30 DEW
POINTS TO AROUND 40 THAT THE NAM AND RAP PORTRAY. SO EVEN FOR
TELLER/WRN EL PASO COUNTY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR AS
WELL AS OTHER BURN SCARS IN THE SE MTS...SUCH AS EAST PEAK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE HIT OR MISS...AND COVERAGE DOESN`T LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
CERTAINLY WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORCING FROM
THE TROF COMING IN...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONE OF
THESE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THESE AREAS. LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AT RISK TODAY.
MEANWHILE...ATMOS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH GFS MUCH WETTER FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS VS THE 00Z NAM12. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
GFS...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT IS AT THIS TIME...IT COULD
ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. WILL HANG ON TO POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT COVERAGE IN MODELS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z SAT. THINK BEST FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER 06Z. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE
WARMER CONDITIONS(ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY) IN
COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS(POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER) AS VARYING DEGREES OF
UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
INITIALLY...UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME-
FRAME. THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC REGIME WHEN COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWFA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FAVOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BOTH
DAYS AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED LIS...CAPES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH -4C...1200 J/KG AND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.
THEN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.
OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN ABOVE
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WITH UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KCOS AND
KPUB STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING -TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KCOS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. CIGS
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR TO MVFR...THOUGH STRONGER STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH +TSRA. BEST
WINDOW FOR -TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL BE FROM 18Z-00Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS AND BANK UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SE
MTS AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE. CIGS IN THESE AREAS
COULD DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY SAT MORNING WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS.
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY...AND PUSHES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR POPS. SCALED BACK FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
NIGHT PER LATEST TRENDS/OBS AND HRRR PROGS. REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER UNTIL VERY LATE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SO FAR HAVE WEAKENED
UPON ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING
CAPE AND NO EVIDENT SOURCE OF UPWARD FORCING...DOUBT THAT WE SEE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS HERE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...REGION WILL BE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING WITH DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TRACKING INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NY
TONIGHT. WEAK VORT ALOFT...LLJ FORCING...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LATE TONIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE N&W OF NYC METRO.
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...NEAR 70 NYC/NJ METRO.
COASTAL STRATUS/DENSE FOG LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOIST
AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COMPARABLY COOLER WATERS. SREF PROBS ARE
NOT THAT HIGH FOR TONIGHT...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LOW
PROBS THAN WHAT IT WAS SHOWING FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING WITH DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
SINKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFT/EVE IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC.
THE COLD FRONT...A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND
VORT ENERGY RIDING IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACT AS TRIGGER/FOCUSES
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING SUN AFT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT AND
NE NJ...NYC METRO. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE FRONT AND PWATS
POOL TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SPARSE AND LOW...MAINLY ACROSS
NE NJ/LOWER HUD...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY IN AREAS OF INCREASING SHEAR
FARTHER NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN VICINITY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE N/NE. WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF TSTMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTM THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM IN ITS WAKE. HIGHEST
PROB FOR SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND RAIN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO...SW CT AND LOWER HUD
VALLEY WITH LLJ FORCING TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND MORE IN
THE WAY OF VORT ENERGY...AND POSSIBLE SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
ACROSS NE NJ. COOLER AND LESS MUGGY CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS
ADVECTS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING
BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LIKELY
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FINAL LOW
DEPARTS. COULD HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AND
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE 70S FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER NEAR KSWF UNTIL AROUND 02Z.
EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. LIFR CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE WESTERN WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. ONLY A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS OCEAN WATERS AND
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS.
WITH A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...MARGINAL SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ON ALL OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN SCA AT THIS
POINT WITH OBSERVED LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT BELOW
WNA. WILL LET EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVAL.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK COULD GUST
TO 25 KT FROM TIME TO TIME.
TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NYC
METRO...NE NJ...LOWER HUD VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD POSE A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. THE PROBABILITY IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW. OF
NOTE...SBU WRF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES
DURING THIS 24 HR PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS EASTERN
LI AND SE CT...WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIRMASS LIMITING CONVECTION.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.
AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.
DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
...AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
...BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4
UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.
OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.
CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.
CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.
ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9
PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 70.8
NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.
ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874
2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015
WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0
NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.
AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.
DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND
TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4
UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.
OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.
CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.
CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.
ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9
PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 70.8
NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.
ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874
2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015
WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0
NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.
AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.
DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND
TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4
LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.
CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.
CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.
ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9
PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 70.8
NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.
ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874
2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015
WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0
NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF:
A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REMAINING
HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED
TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA. DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER
IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.
AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES CAROLINE AND
TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.
I MAY RAISE TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY.
OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND
TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4
LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY.
SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.
CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.
CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.
ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9
PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 70.8
NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.
ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874
2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015
WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0
NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 859A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
RIP CURRENTS...859A
CLIMATE...859A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS SOME MORNING CONVECTION
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL STAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WILL MONITOR FORECAST AS SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. FOR THE
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY WINDS WERE MADE ALONG WITH THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF LEE
COUNTY AROUND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DUE TO A
WILDFIRE IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT RSW...WITH OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THE MOST. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE NEAR THE COAST...PIE/TPA/SRQ.
&&
.MARINE...
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO
SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES THEIR AREA.
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 50 30
FMY 91 71 92 72 / 30 10 50 40
GIF 90 71 91 72 / 20 0 40 20
SRQ 89 71 90 73 / 30 20 40 40
BKV 90 67 91 69 / 20 0 50 30
SPG 88 72 90 75 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1122 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA/PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/STRONGER INSTABILITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
SUNRISE GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST NAM BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A 20 KT LLJ DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRESENT THINKING HAS LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATING 08Z-14Z...WITH SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR 14Z-15Z
WITH CUMULUS AGAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS. A
FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON..CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS GIVEN SCATTERED COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1015 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA/PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/STRONGER INSTABILITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOR
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
LATEST NAM BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A 20 KT LLJ DEVELOPING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRESENT THINKING HAS LOW CLOUDS
PREDOMINATING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AROUND 14Z WITH
CUMULUS AGAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS. A FEW
SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA/PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/STRONGER INSTABILITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LOW COUNTRY AND EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOR OVERNIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL SITES...WITH FOG ALSO
DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AROUND 14Z WITH CUMULUS AGAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY
AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS IN SE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BUT POPS LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
STRONGER CAP TODAY SO NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST...AND
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
DESPITE INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PREVENTING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SEVERAL WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER TEXAS. A
WEAKER WAVE IS RIPPLING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL APPROACH ILLINOIS LATE IN THE
DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING GRADUALLY ARRIVES, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY INHIBIT
INSTABILITY, SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION. AS
A RESULT, OPTED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO GO WITH SCATTERED
WORDING TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.
THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.
PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN PLACE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ILLINOIS TONIGHT...BRINGING ENHANCED FORCING AND A GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. BASED ON RAPID REFRESH FORECAST...HAVE
INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS AT KPIA AND KSPI BY
03Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 08Z. WILL GIVE EACH TAF SITE A
10-HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY VCSH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW VFR CEILINGS INITIALLY...LOWERING TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD/ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD...THEN WILL BECOME
W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
DESPITE INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PREVENTING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SEVERAL WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER TEXAS. A
WEAKER WAVE IS RIPPLING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL APPROACH ILLINOIS LATE IN THE
DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING GRADUALLY ARRIVES, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY INHIBIT
INSTABILITY, SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION. AS
A RESULT, OPTED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO GO WITH SCATTERED
WORDING TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.
THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.
PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN IL HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BMI IS
THE ONLY TERMINAL SITE REPORTING MVFR FOG, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVED
TO VFR BY 14Z. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING, WITH A BREAK IN
STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONS MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN
SSE AND SSW AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF ENERGY PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER A
TERMINAL LOCATION.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.
THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.
PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN IL HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BMI IS
THE ONLY TERMINAL SITE REPORTING MVFR FOG, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVED
TO VFR BY 14Z. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING, WITH A BREAK IN
STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONS MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN
SSE AND SSW AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF ENERGY PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER A
TERMINAL LOCATION.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN ADD
DETAIL TO WIND GRIDS FOR LAKE BREEZE LOCATION PER METAR/RADAR OBS.
18Z NAM AND RECENT RAP/HRRR HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA/CHICAGO METRO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK PER 00Z RAOB AND RAP
ANALYSIS OTHER THAN SURFACE WARM FRONT PROPAGATING NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SFC/NEAR SFC BASED SHRA/TSRA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WERE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STILL APPEARS THAT THE
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP STILL APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS OVER MO/IA/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IL...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IL...AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MO/AR
PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY. GOING FORECAST HAS POPS INCREASING MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA 09-12Z...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY/AFTER
12Z...AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY FRONTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A LAKE
BREEZE WITH LAKESIDE COOLING AT THE CHICAGO SHORE ABOUT 14
DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AT ORD/MDW AS OF 200 PM. THE FRONT OF
INTEREST FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BRINGING A RETURN TO MUGGY AIR
BY DAYBREAK...AS WELL AS KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES MILD...EVEN
INCREASING THEM LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS.
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...SOME LIKELY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THESE JUST NORTH OF KANSAS
CITY AS OF 200 PM IS WELL ANALYZED BY THE LATEST RAP AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO
WEAKER IMPULSES TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH A 25-30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THESE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT THAT
HEIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN...DUE TO HOW
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE OVERNIGHT STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DURING
FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW...AND HAVE THUS CAPPED POPS AT LIKELYS.
MORNING PRECIP AND EVEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. THIS WILL HELP WITH EARLY DESTABILIZATION WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION AND WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY RETURNING DURING THIS
TIME...THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF GOOD FOCUS AT THE SURFACE...THINK BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESIDE. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH HOW ORGANIZED ANY STORM WILL BE AND
ALTHOUGH I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. 80 DEGREE WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS LIKELY BEING LIMITED IN ANY AREA
THAT OBSERVES MORE PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
STILL THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS VARYING WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
NIGHT WILL EVOLVE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LARGER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE
A SEPARATE TROUGH AND SEVERAL IMPULSES WORKS EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS. NONETHELESS...BEST LOW/MID LEVEL COVERAGE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING ALSO
INCREASES. SO DO THINK PRECIP WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA...BUT WITH
COVERAGE AND DURATION POSSIBLY LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDER
SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WHILE
WINDS/GUSTS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 40 DEGREE WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE
10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND
INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION AT RFD...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY PRECIP THRU MID MORNING. GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE
FOCUSED ON A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON AND THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
COVERAGE/DURATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. ASSUMING THIS ACTIVITY
DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD EXPECT A BIT OF LULL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MORE
LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL
LOW...AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIP COULD BE POST FRONTAL INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED VICINITY MENTION IN THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF
FOR NOW.
WINDS/GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOME MID/LATE AFTERNOON ONCE PRECIP
ENDS AND CLOUDS SCATTER BUT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
335 AM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH SOME GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GALES. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE...SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 15-25KT IS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...LEAVING A
WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.
THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.
PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS AND
VSBYS. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
AT KSPI WHERE THEY RECEIVED SOME RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A 6 MILE RESTRICTION TO VSBY LATE
TONIGHT AT SPI AS THEIR TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 3 DEGREES. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AT SPI WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE FOG
FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL MO TRACKING NORTHEAST AND MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MORNING AS THIS
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS STILL VERY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VCSH OR VCTS
GOING TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP COMING
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN ADD
DETAIL TO WIND GRIDS FOR LAKE BREEZE LOCATION PER METAR/RADAR OBS.
18Z NAM AND RECENT RAP/HRRR HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA/CHICAGO METRO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK PER 00Z RAOB AND RAP
ANALYSIS OTHER THAN SURFACE WARM FRONT PROPAGATING NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SFC/NEAR SFC BASED SHRA/TSRA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WERE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STILL APPEARS THAT THE
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP STILL APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS OVER MO/IA/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IL...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IL...AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MO/AR
PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY. GOING FORECAST HAS POPS INCREASING MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA 09-12Z...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY/AFTER
12Z...AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY FRONTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A LAKE
BREEZE WITH LAKESIDE COOLING AT THE CHICAGO SHORE ABOUT 14
DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AT ORD/MDW AS OF 200 PM. THE FRONT OF
INTEREST FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BRINGING A RETURN TO MUGGY AIR
BY DAYBREAK...AS WELL AS KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES MILD...EVEN
INCREASING THEM LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS.
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...SOME LIKELY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THESE JUST NORTH OF KANSAS
CITY AS OF 200 PM IS WELL ANALYZED BY THE LATEST RAP AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO
WEAKER IMPULSES TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH A 25-30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THESE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT THAT
HEIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN...DUE TO HOW
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE OVERNIGHT STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DURING
FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW...AND HAVE THUS CAPPED POPS AT LIKELYS.
MORNING PRECIP AND EVEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. THIS WILL HELP WITH EARLY DESTABILIZATION WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION AND WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY RETURNING DURING THIS
TIME...THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF GOOD FOCUS AT THE SURFACE...THINK BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESIDE. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH HOW ORGANIZED ANY STORM WILL BE AND
ALTHOUGH I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. 80 DEGREE WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS LIKELY BEING LIMITED IN ANY AREA
THAT OBSERVES MORE PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
STILL THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS VARYING WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
NIGHT WILL EVOLVE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LARGER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE
A SEPARATE TROUGH AND SEVERAL IMPULSES WORKS EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS. NONETHELESS...BEST LOW/MID LEVEL COVERAGE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING ALSO
INCREASES. SO DO THINK PRECIP WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA...BUT WITH
COVERAGE AND DURATION POSSIBLY LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDER
SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WHILE
WINDS/GUSTS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 40 DEGREE WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE
10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND
INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION AT RFD...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY PRECIP THRU MID MORNING. GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE
FOCUSED ON A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON AND THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
COVERAGE/DURATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. ASSUMING THIS ACTIVITY
DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD EXPECT A BIT OF LULL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MORE
LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL
LOW...AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIP COULD BE POST FRONTAL INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED VICINITY MENTION IN THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF
FOR NOW.
WINDS/GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOME MID/LATE AFTERNOON ONCE PRECIP
ENDS AND CLOUDS SCATTER BUT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A
SOURCE FOR FOG ALONG IT AND THIS HAS BEEN SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
AT TIMES DURING THURSDAY. EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT PREVALENT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND STEER
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...IT WILL DRIVE A STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR LATE MAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH WAVES ON SUNDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO SPREAD HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATERS NORTHEAST FARTHER INTO THE DVN CWA...AND RANGED FROM NEAR 1
INCH IN NW IL TO 1.4 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO
FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MO
BUT MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK. THE HRRR INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. I
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LATEST THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.
18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.
THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER FRIDAY MORNING
BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
528 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID TERM
AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS STARTED OUT WELL AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SO ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN GOING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
MORE OF THE FORCING GOES NORTH AND THE LEAST ELEVATED CINH IS ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THAT FORCING AND WEAKNESS IN THE
INHIBITION SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS BUT AM ALSO ANTICIPATING FOG.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES. CONSIDERING THE MORNING STRATUS AND WINDS COMING
MORE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...AM SIDING TOWARD COOLER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. AS ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH
COMES UP AGAIN AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT THAT WARMUP AGAIN WILL BE TEMPERED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUT/CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DOES
SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
IN GENERAL LEE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME STRONGER THAN
OTHERS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AND WET ONCE AGAIN. KNOW IT IS FAR OUT...BUT THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST .05 ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS IT.
SO A WET AND NOT VERY HOT PATTERN LOOK IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY
BRING IN SOME FOG FOR KMCK...HOWEVER THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
LOWER VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL EAST OF THE SITE. WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEST OF KGLD. AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND TOO
FAR FROM KGLD TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CLOUD FREE SKY OTHER THAN SOME VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS IS PROBABLE AS SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, A COOLER OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTS UPPER 40S TO ABOUT 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND RAP13 ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AFTER 9
UTC, HOWEVER THE RAP 13 DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER WEST THAN CENTRAL
KANSAS VERY PATCHY COVERAGE, WHILE THE NAM , WHICH IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE, EXTENDS AREAS OF FOG MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL
GFS MOS, BUT MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING, SURFACE WINDS
WILL AGAIN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83-COLORADO BORDER CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL PERHAPS TOO RAPIDLY
SURGES DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE SUNDAY AND MID 60 BEYOND
THAT. NAM IS THE ONLY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD BRING SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM SE COLORADO INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AS OF THIS TIME NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ARW/NMM ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME/AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PROCESS TO HANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST 18 UTC RUN OF THE NAM MODEL APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EARLIER RAP13 SOLUTIONS FOR AREAL EXTENT OF
FOG POTENTIAL, WHICH WOULD MEAN THE GREATEST RISK FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG AT HAYS ONLY. STILL, WITHOUT SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
LAMP MOS OUTPUT, WE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON FOG IN THE TERMINALS
TO SEE WHAT THE 06 Z GUIDANCE AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MINOR FLOODING ALONG CROOKED CREEK IN MEADE COUNTY CONTINUED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STREAM HAS CROSSED BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE
RECENTLY AND THE WARNING IS CANCELED. UPSTREAM WATER ACROSS
CREEKS IN NORTHERN FORD AND SOUTHERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES COULD ADD
TO THE FLOW ON THE PAWNEE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO TWO AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REACTIONS DOWNSTREAM ON THE PAWNEE TOWARDS
LARNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 77 58 83 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 49 79 59 84 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 53 82 60 90 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 49 79 60 87 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 45 76 56 82 / 0 0 30 30
P28 49 77 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
HYDROLOGY...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
444 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.
HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH IT WARMS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLE WELL ON THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH
SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MODELS DO NOT START OUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE NAM WAS DOING
THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO WARM. OVERALL THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO VERY DEEP DRY LAYER WITH ONLY THE VERY LOW LEVELS
HAVING ANY MOISTURE. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RETURN FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.
MODELS HINTING AT...MAINLY THE NAM...ABOUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADING IN CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE
FAR EAST WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE BEST COOLING
CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING IN WITH SOME MINOR
HEIGHT RISES.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE
EAST OF IT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW
MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT. DURING THE
NIGHT MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CINH...WITH THE WEAKEST CAP LATER IN THE
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP THE IT
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL HAVE HIGH SILENT POPS. WILL
KEEP HIGH SILENT/DRY POPS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLS WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY OR NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND DIRECTION DOES
NOT BECOME DOWNSLOPE EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR WEST. NEWER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LITTLE WARMER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WILL USE
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE IN MAKING THOSE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE
NIGHT...DOES LOOK LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS.
MONDAY...LEE TROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND IS RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALOFT THE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING RATHER WARM BUT
BREAKABLE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. STORM MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW. AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST.
NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL HINDER THE WARMUP A
LITTLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN WARMER. CONSIDERING THAT PLUS
RECENT RAINS...WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENS/AMPLIFIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH A PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE/SOME BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KMCK BUT CONDITIONS WILL
COME CLOSE TO MVFR AS CIGS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE THRESHOLD. KGLD
WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KGLD AND KMCK BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.
HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH IT WARMS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLE WELL ON THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH
SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MODELS DO NOT START OUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE NAM WAS DOING
THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO WARM. OVERALL THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO VERY DEEP DRY LAYER WITH ONLY THE VERY LOW LEVELS
HAVING ANY MOISTURE. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RETURN FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.
MODELS HINTING AT...MAINLY THE NAM...ABOUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADING IN CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE
FAR EAST WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE BEST COOLING
CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING IN WITH SOME MINOR
HEIGHT RISES.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE
EAST OF IT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW
MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT. DURING THE
NIGHT MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CINH...WITH THE WEAKEST CAP LATER IN THE
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP THE IT
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL HAVE HIGH SILENT POPS. WILL
KEEP HIGH SILENT/DRY POPS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLS WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY OR NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND DIRECTION DOES
NOT BECOME DOWNSLOPE EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR WEST. NEWER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LITTLE WARMER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WILL USE
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE IN MAKING THOSE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE
NIGHT...DOES LOOK LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS.
MONDAY...LEE TROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND IS RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALOFT THE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING RATHER WARM BUT
BREAKABLE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. STORM MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW. AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST.
NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL HINDER THE WARMUP A
LITTLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN WARMER. CONSIDERING THAT PLUS
RECENT RAINS...WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENS/AMPLIFIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH A PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE/SOME BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
TONIGHT:
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HRRR AND ARW GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION
TOWARDS 06Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS DESCRIBED BY THE NAM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS SOLUTION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN AND INSTABILITY BECOMES
MEDIOCRE TO NON-EXISTENT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
CAPE IS MARGINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL STORMS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER
AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE.
TOMORROW:
A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH POPS AT ZERO
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. EXPECTING
VALUES IN THE 68-71F RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
BY DUSK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN A QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER-WISE DURING
THE FIRST FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. EAST OF THE
TROUGH, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN.
BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HOLDS TROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR EVENING AND NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE FOCUSED MORE OVER NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
REMAIN BETTER CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, KEEPING
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED.
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY, THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
CIGS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE STRATUS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
MID MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS KHYS. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED CB/VCTS
GROUPS IN THE TAF FOR 00Z-03Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK, SO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE N/NE 5-15 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 70 48 77 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 51 69 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 51 70 52 83 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 52 71 50 80 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 52 69 46 77 / 40 0 0 0
P28 55 71 49 77 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1241 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.
HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SO...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DECENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE MID LAYER SUBSIDENCE...LACK OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND GFS SOLUTION TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ADVECTS
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY. EVEN THE
GFS HINTS AT A DRY LINE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES EAST OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE...MENTIONED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TUESDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE DECENT
ASCENT...SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS. MID LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT CAPES AGAIN WILL BE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
...UPDATED SHORT & AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
TONIGHT:
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HRRR AND ARW GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION
TOWARDS 06Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS DESCRIBED BY THE NAM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS SOLUTION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN AND INSTABILITY BECOMES
MEDIOCRE TO NON-EXISTENT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
CAPE IS MARGINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL STORMS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER
AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE.
TOMORROW:
A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH POPS AT ZERO
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. EXPECTING
VALUES IN THE 68-71F RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
BY DUSK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SOME COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO 18C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BASED ON THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEAN FLOW WILL OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A DOWN
SLOPE FLOW TO IMPROVE. THIS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND
MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER.
BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE ROCKIES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE DAY AND THIS WILL RISE
TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
CIGS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE STRATUS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
MID MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS KHYS. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED CB/VCTS
GROUPS IN THE TAF FOR 00Z-03Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK, SO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE N/NE 5-15 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 53 70 51 / 20 30 0 10
GCK 76 51 69 52 / 20 20 0 10
EHA 76 51 70 55 / 20 20 0 10
LBL 78 52 71 53 / 20 20 0 10
HYS 77 52 69 49 / 40 40 0 10
P28 80 55 71 52 / 20 40 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
Very active and chaotic pattern in the short term. A moist and
somewhat unstable airmass covered the central plains early this
morning with southwest upper flow ahead of the main shortwave over
the central Rockies. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developed over southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma after 05 UTC.
The convection was supported by a decent low-level jet at 925 mb
modest moisture transport. In the near term, forecasted the cluster
of storms over southeast Kansas to move through our southeast and
eastern counties early this morning.
The shortwave over the central Rockies moves into the central plains
today and tonight. A cold front extending from South Dakota
southwest into eastern Colorado at 06 UTC is forecast by all short
term models to move through northeast Kansas between 00 UTC and 06
UTC tonight. Given the abundant moisture and modest instability,
will continue showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until the
front moves through. Will then end precipitation chances from
northwest to southeast the moisture is pushed out of the area and
cool advection takes over behind the front.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
With upper trough passing through early Saturday, have doubts much
precip will be left in the morning and have lowered PoPs further.
Low cloud does look to remain rather prevalent and expect highs to
struggle to breach the upper 60s in moderate north wind. Weak
surface ridging then holds the area through the weekend with quiet
weather persisting into early next week as upper ridging builds into
the central ConUS. Models showing decent agreement in a shortwave
working its way through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern
Plains around Wednesday. Could see precip breach the northwest
counties with this and possibly drape a boundary farther southeast
by Thursday for modest precip chances. Temps gradually warm into the
mid week with uncertainty on specifics increasing with time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
Confidence in timing TS at the terminals remains low due to weak
forcing and a lack of a strong surface feature to focus
convection. Because of this, refinement to the forecast is likely
to be needed. With the initial wave moving in and scattered
convection developing out ahead of the outflow, just went with a
tempo for the next several hours. It`s hard to see if there is an
MCV over central KS, but the RAP has one analyzed out there so the
chance for TS remains in place through the day Friday. While I
don`t expect there to be continuous rainfall, it is difficult to
pick out a chunk of time when precip could not occur. Because of
this continue with a VCTS through the forecast period. There are
some differences in timing the frontal passage Friday evening with
the GFS more progressive. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast, will let later shifts try and nail down the FROPA a
little better. Looks like there may be some lower CIGS with the
front as well.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY. THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. BULK SHEAR IS WEAKER TODAY
AND IS VERY MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS (30 KT). UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAKER TOO FOR STORM TOP VENTILATION. LIKE THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AS
FAR AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS CONCERNED. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS DESCRIBED BY THE WRF. THE NET RESULT IS CONVECTION
WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THINK UPSCALE GROWTH
IN TO A LINE IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM. TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS LIKELY
TODAY AS SUPERCELLS LOOK LESS LIKELY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS
PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINE SHOULD LIMIT SOME TRAINING OF STORMS AS THE LINE HEADS EAST. STILL,
ANOTHER 1 TO 2" OF RAIN LOOK GOOD FOR SOME SPOTS. FARTHER EAST, THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL AS THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT. WET MICROBURSTS OF 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW:
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THERE NOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT, BUT
THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
AS SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 70,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MID 80S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S DUE TO ENHANCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ONLY ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE COULD VENTURE INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A SHARPER LEE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH,
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND GIANT HAIL ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK, THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. GIVEN THE LEE TROUGHING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 70 51 75 / 40 10 10 0
GCK 53 69 50 77 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 53 70 53 79 / 50 20 10 10
LBL 55 71 53 77 / 40 20 10 10
HYS 53 69 49 75 / 40 10 10 0
P28 58 71 54 75 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
On Thursday afternoon, an unorganized and rather chaotic atmospheric
setup was in place over Kansas. Several mesoscale features were
evident in radar imagery as rotating areas of precip represented
small scale energy. One larger vorticity maxima was moving northeast
across western Iowa while another was moving northeast across
southwest Missouri. Smaller scale vorticity maxima appeared to be
moving east across north central Kansas with another moving nearly
due north across extreme eastern Kansas. All of these vort maxima
were producing enhanced areas of showers and some thunderstorms as
the weak enhancement in vertical motion was easily enough to
overtake a weakly capped and weakly unstable environment. However,
in the past hour have seen a general decrease in precip coverage
likely a result of the larger scale circulations shifting off to the
east. In the short term, through mid evening, expect scattered
showers and a few storms to continue although also expecting a
continued decrease in coverage. Severe weather potential is minimal
although any convection able to develop from Salina toward Emporia
could be strong as there is a bit of clearing and warming taking
place in that region. Flooding potential also seems minimal through
this evening given decreasing trends, but if a convective cluster
was able to develop and train over some of the areas that have
received heavy rain in the past 24 hours there is some small
potential for localized flash flooding.
For tonight`s forecast into Friday morning, we must take a broader
look at forcing mechanisms as the mesoscale features have proven
extremely tough to predict with accuracy. A trough axis evident in
water vapor imagery extended from Wyoming through central Colorado
and into eastern New Mexico with several individual smaller vort
maxima evident within the trough axis. Upslope flow in conjunction
with the approaching upper energy has already initiated widespread
thunderstorms across the High Plains region, and model guidance is
rather consistent in tracking the vorticity into central KS by early
Friday morning and into eastern KS by sunrise on Friday. Thus, have
at least mid range confidence in a convective cluster developing
across western KS this evening and tracking east across the state
overnight into Friday morning, not unlike what developed and move
east last night into Thursday AM. However, it is not clear cut how
far east this complex will progress before dissipating as the low
level jet veers with little LLJ convergence. There are indications
of some elevated instability which may sustain the complex as it
moves east IF there is enough forcing in the low levels. Will be
something to monitor this evening but for now have gone with fairly
high PoPs for the entire area through Friday morning.
Friday looks to be messy on the mesoscale once again with the main
upper trough approaching from the northwest and smaller features
likely impacting the area as well. There is a strong signal for
periods of rain and thunderstorms especially south of a Marysville
to Abilene line through the day so have kept higher PoPs in those
areas. Flooding will be dependent upon the persistence of rain over
an area, and given the expected scattered nature of storms through
the day, have not issued any flood watch products at this time.
Expect plenty of cloud cover through the short term period which
will keep lows warm in the 60s tonight and high temperatures in the
mid 70s again on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
Main positive tilt longwave trough will move across the region
forcing a cold front southward through the state on Friday night.
Showers and thunderstorms along the front should exit the area
around 12Z Saturday or shortly thereafter. The 700MB trough passes
by midday so there could be lingering cloud cover but cooler and
drier air will move into the area setting up a much needed dry
period for most of the weekend and into next week. In fact, both
ECMWF and GFS suggest dry weather could persist into next Weds
before the next upper trough moves into the Plains with the next
Chance for storms expected to be sometime later Weds into Thurs.
Temps should rise back toward avgs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
while dewpoints should stay in the 50s through Monday before
southerly flow develops Tues with dewpoints expected to be back in
the 60s by then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
Confidence in timing TS at the terminals remains low due to weak
forcing and a lack of a strong surface feature to focus
convection. Because of this, refinement to the forecast is likely
to be needed. With the initial wave moving in and scattered
convection developing out ahead of the outflow, just went with a
tempo for the next several hours. It`s hard to see if there is an
MCV over central KS, but the RAP has one analyzed out there so the
chance for TS remains in place through the day Friday. While I
don`t expect there to be continuous rainfall, it is difficult to
pick out a chunk of time when precip could not occur. Because of
this continue with a VCTS through the forecast period. There are
some differences in timing the frontal passage Friday evening with
the GFS more progressive. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast, will let later shifts try and nail down the FROPA a
little better. Looks like there may be some lower CIGS with the
front as well.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1047 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO INCREASING POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER TN AND VA SHOULD
AT LEAST BRUSH PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLED VALLEYS THAT HAD DROPPED
OFF A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CU DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
VCSH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FROM AROUND 5Z ON. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. ON SUNDAY...THE NEARBY BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FROM
AROUND 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INITIALLY...
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
822 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CU DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
VCSH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FROM AROUND 5Z ON. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. ON SUNDAY...THE NEARBY BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FROM
AROUND 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INITIALLY...
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
633 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED. SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED. SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER
MONTHS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BROAD
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NOW LOOK MAINLY DRY
AND A LITTLE COOLER. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COOLER.
POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDER. LINGERING
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST
INTO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGHS RETREATS TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
COME A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL INCH BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
DIURNAL CIG BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES POSSIBLE. AFTER NIGHTFALL...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM WORKS MID BASED CIGS INTO/ACROSS
AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OFFER MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE...OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE NEARING FRONT TO AGAIN INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS/VICINITY THUNDER MENTIONED EARLY AND BECOMING
PREVALANT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
139 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.
AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
DIURNAL CIG BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES POSSIBLE. AFTER NIGHTFALL...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM WORKS MID BASED CIGS INTO/ACROSS
AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OFFER MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE...OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE NEARING FRONT TO AGAIN INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS/VICINITY THUNDER MENTIONED EARLY AND BECOMING
PREVALANT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST T/TD OBS
AND RADAR IMAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.
GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.
GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.
GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY AT 1.70 INCHES. WINDS WERE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS UNTIL 38000 FEET WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF ONLY 34 KNOTS AT
45000 FEET. THESE LIGHT WINDS HAVE CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
SLOWLY AND PRODUCE HIGH RAIN TOTALS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BATON ROUGE RECORDED 2.82 INCHES /A
NEW DAILY RECORD/ AND MCCOMB RECORDED 1.06 INCHES THROUGH 00Z/7PM
LT. HEAVY RAIN SUPPORTIVE K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 30S ALSO
ARE PRESENT. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL OVER 2000 J/KG. 23Z HRRR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING A FEW MORE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WHICH LASTED 104
MINUTES. THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND BEFORE BURSTING NEAR PEARL RIVER 6 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
OFFICE.
ANSORGE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A HIGH CAPE...LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THERE IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTIVE HEATING IS AT ITS MAXIMUM. PART OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD GET CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER LA...AR
AND MS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND MOVES TO
AL..TN BY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST LA AND THE SLOWLY
RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN MS AND AL LATER DURING THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL HELP LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK...SINCE ANY THAT FORM
WILL BE GOOD WET MICROBURST CANDIDATES.
AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION RANDOMLY DOTTING THE AREA. ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN REFIRING BY ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO AS WELL. 35
MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 17/35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 83 67 83 / 40 60 40 50
BTR 70 85 68 85 / 40 60 40 50
ASD 71 85 70 84 / 30 60 40 50
MSY 72 85 71 84 / 30 60 40 60
GPT 72 84 71 84 / 20 40 40 50
PQL 70 85 70 84 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THIS TAF PERIOD BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
OUR TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT
A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWER CIGS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NW WITH FROPA WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
NEAR 10 KTS ON SUNDAY. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 81 63 81 / 40 20 10 20
MLU 66 82 63 80 / 50 40 30 30
DEQ 55 78 59 78 / 40 20 10 20
TXK 60 79 61 79 / 40 20 10 20
ELD 62 80 60 79 / 40 30 20 30
TYR 62 80 61 81 / 40 20 10 20
GGG 62 80 62 81 / 40 20 10 20
LFK 65 82 63 83 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS.
/VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 82 66 81 / 60 60 40 40
MLU 69 84 67 82 / 60 60 40 50
DEQ 67 79 64 78 / 60 60 30 20
TXK 68 81 65 79 / 60 60 30 30
ELD 69 82 66 80 / 60 60 40 40
TYR 69 81 65 80 / 60 60 40 20
GGG 69 82 66 80 / 60 60 40 30
LFK 70 85 67 83 / 40 60 40 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
VII/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
918 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
918 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MILLINOCKET.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND BRIEF GUSTY WIND
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM REGIME
BY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT
1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS OF 50+
KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE FIRST BATCH
ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATTM. THE
SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION.
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS WELL TO ENHANCE
THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH FLOODING IS LOW
DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE ANY STRONG
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS FOR
NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS STANDPOINT.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN W/PRECIP JUST IN
THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR
AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT
STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY
RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF
DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES
CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND BHB, VFR GOING TO
MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBNG/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN STEADY
RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD...WITH
KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN IMPACTED BY IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. THE WIND AND SEAS HAVE
FINALLY COME UP AND THE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. THE WIND WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY
W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP.
SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE.
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.
FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING 5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.
FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING 5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
319 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE MARINE STRATUS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE COAST. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT DEPICTION BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. LEANING
HEAVILY ON THE NARRE AND HRRR FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COASTAL ME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPWM WILL SEE
STRATUS SOONEST...WITH ALL COASTAL AREAS LIKELY SEEING LOW CIGS BY
00Z. THRU THE NIGHT THIS WILL CREEP INLAND...AND SHOULD ROUGHLY
MATCH THE CURRENT SEA BREEZE FRONT OUTLINE. WINDS SHIFTING TO SWLY
WILL KEEP STRATUS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE GREAT BAY AREA AND E IN
SERN NH...WHILE ALLOWING IT TO PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG AND KWVL
IN CENTRAL ME.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOW CLOUDS...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER IN FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT THIS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS AGGRESSIVE ON
VSBYS BELOW 1/2 SM...WHILE NARRE IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR.
SREF VSBYS PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT FOR LESS THAN
1 SM VSBY POINT TOWARDS SOME FOG MORE LIKELY THAT NOT. SO WILL
HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SAT. THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IT WILL DELAY IN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. SREF
CALIBRATED SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES PEAK AROUND 21Z ACROSS THE
FAR NRN ZONES. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIR ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL
ADD GUSTY WINDS TO THESE ZONES...AND DELAY TSTMS FOR COAST UNTIL
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND SLOW FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH TRAINING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME WATER
ISSUES. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP ANY STORMS TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED...BUT A RENEWAL OF DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY SUN AS THE DAY HEATS UP AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAY OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS COMING
TO AN END IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DENSE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY SOUTH HOWEVER AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT. LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOL (MID 50S)
WHILE MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN CLEARS OUT AND WARMS INTO THE
UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE 60S.
THE PROXIMITY OF OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS A STEADY
STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY TO BE HAD BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHTNING OFFSHORE. FOLLOWING THIS A STOUT CUTOFF SHORT WAVE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS AS MARINE STRATUS INVADES THE AREA. BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z
MOST SITES SHOULD BE IFR OR LOWER. KAUG MAY TAKE A COUPLE EXTRA
HOURS FOR LOW CIGS TO WORK INLAND...BUT BY 03Z IFR IS EXPECTED.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. GUSTY SW WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT
INTO SUN FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSTMS IS FOR
KHIE SAT EVENING.
LONG TERM...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT. COOL WATERS SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT BY LATE
SAT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER.
LONG TERM...WAVES DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
SEAS RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WETTING RAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO/HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREA OF MARINE
STRATUS MOVING SWWD THRU THE GULF OF ME THIS AFTERNOON. NARRE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS THIS REACHING COASTAL ZONES BY 22-00Z.
LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON LOW CIGS BY 16Z...AND BRINGS
THESE INTO THE COAST SLIGHTLY EARLIER...21Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. HOWEVER HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISC...
QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LOWERING DEW POINTS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A RETURN OF FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS STRONG FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARDS THE COASTLINE WITH TIME.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
MONDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION FOR LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY. HOWEVER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
GREEN UP SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE DANGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION PER THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON W/MOISTURE TUCKED IN AT 850MBS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUCH AS SB CAPE OF
400-700 JOULES AND 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5C/KM. THIS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY ABOVE THE 850MBS LAYER. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWS A SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIFT N W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS OF 25 DBZ SHOWING UP
W/THE BOUNDARY. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CURRENT PACKAGE OF KEEPING
THINGS DRY. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.
POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1118 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CORRIDOR OF POST-FRONTAL...UPPER JET FORCED RAINFALL MAKING STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO PLAGUE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISVILLE TO NEAR HOUGHTON LAKE. IF CURRENT RADAR TIMING HOLDS
TRUE...RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 03Z.
WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES. BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THICK MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. BUT BACK EDGE OF
THAT CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR (HERE AT THE OFFICE...GOT TO
SEE THE LAST 15 MINUTES OF THE SUN ON THE HORIZON BEFORE SETTING).
REST OF THE NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EAST WILL END AND SKIES WILL
LARGELY CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY GET STUCK
OVER THE SE COUNTIES COURTESY OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS WITH
LOW TEMPS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT...FORECAST
1000MB/975MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR BETTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT SUGGESTING LIMITED DECOUPLING (I.E. WE KEEP A BIT OF A
WIND GOING ALL NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING AND
CURTAIL ANY FROST FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. SO...WE WILL REMAIN FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MUCH COOLER AIRMASS NOW
FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND MUCH EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. LAGGING BEHIND OFF
THE DECK FRONTAL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RER UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS RAIN AXIS...WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SPREADING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MERGER AND DEVELOPING OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVENING RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...STEADY SOUTHWARD PUSH TO CURRENT RAIN AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER IMPRESSIVE (FOR THE
SEASON) SHORTWAVE TROUGH MERGER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FORCING THIS RAIN SHIELD TO STALL AND INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR...BUT HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY TAKING THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...ENDING ALL RAINS
OVERNIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT...SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH STILL DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND JUST GOTTA
SIDE WITH THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (ESSENTIALLY
IGNORING ALL STRAIGHT MOS GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THAT GIVES MID
30S/LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...NEGATING ANY MENTION OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT. READINGS SHOULD BE A TOUCH CHILLER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. EVEN HERE...MAINTENANCE OF
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A NEED FOR
A HEADLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEK/COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH BULK OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JUST CLIPPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. UNSEASONABLY STRONG
(FOR LATE MAY) 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (850MB 0C ISOTHERM CREEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR).
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL SLIDE MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY...
WHILE NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG IT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING...KEEPING A DECENT NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING GETS ORGANIZED
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE "BUBBLE" IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO. THIS WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THICKER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (COULD BE CLOSE FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES SO THAT IS ONE AREA
WORTH WATCHING). WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AROUND 60 PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER).
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY STARTING
THE NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S HAVE A GOOD BIT OF ROOM TO DROP. COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING...WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING/COVERAGE WOULD STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER WITH A
MENTION OF FROST BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MONDAY...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 60S
(BUT STILL 4-8F OFF EARLY JUNE NORMALS). WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SPOTS.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RECOVER (MORE 70S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SLIDES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...
OVERCAST VFR HIGH CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN BUT WILL LARGELY THIN OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.
WINDS...GUSTINESS HAS DIMINISHED. BUT WE WILL KEEP A STEADY
NORTHERLY WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT AND GUSTINESS RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING WHILE TURNING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE DAY. GUSTINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND WINDS GO CALM SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HOIST SCA/S FOR THIS AREA...LETTING OTHERS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS
REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE LAKE HURON SCA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...BERGER/DE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CORRIDOR OF POST-FRONTAL...UPPER JET FORCED RAINFALL MAKING STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO PLAGUE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISVILLE TO NEAR HOUGHTON LAKE. IF CURRENT RADAR TIMING HOLDS
TRUE...RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES SHORT AFTER 03Z.
WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES. BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THICK MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. BUT BACK EDGE OF
THAT CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR (HERE AT THE OFFICE...GOT TO
SEE THE LAST 15 MINUTES OF THE SUN ON THE HORIZON BEFORE SETTING).
REST OF THE NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EAST WILL END AND SKIES WILL
LARGELY CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY GET STUCK
OVER THE SE COUNTIES COURTESY OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS WITH
LOW TEMPS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT...FORECAST
1000MB/975MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR BETTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT SUGGESTING LIMITING DECOUPLING (I.E. WE KEEP A BIT OF A
WIND GOING ALL NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING AND CURTAIL
ANY FROST FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. SO...WE WILL REMAIN FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE
FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MUCH COOLER AIRMASS NOW
FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND MUCH EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. LAGGING BEHIND OFF
THE DECK FRONTAL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RER UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS RAIN AXIS...WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SPREADING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MERGER AND DEVELOPING OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVENING RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...STEADY SOUTHWARD PUSH TO CURRENT RAIN AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER IMPRESSIVE (FOR THE
SEASON) SHORTWAVE TROUGH MERGER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FORCING THIS RAIN SHIELD TO STALL AND INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR...BUT HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY TAKING THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...ENDING ALL RAINS
OVERNIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT...SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH STILL DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND JUST GOTTA
SIDE WITH THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (ESSENTIALLY
IGNORING ALL STRAIGHT MOS GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THAT GIVES MID
30S/LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...NEGATING ANY MENTION OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT. READINGS SHOULD BE A TOUCH CHILLER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. EVEN HERE...MAINTENANCE OF
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A NEED FOR
A HEADLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEK/COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH BULK OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JUST CLIPPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. UNSEASONABLY STRONG
(FOR LATE MAY) 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (850MB 0C ISOTHERM CREEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR).
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL SLIDE MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY...
WHILE NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG IT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING...KEEPING A DECENT NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING GETS ORGANIZED
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE "BUBBLE" IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO. THIS WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THICKER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (COULD BE CLOSE FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES SO THAT IS ONE AREA
WORTH WATCHING). WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AROUND 60 PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER).
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY STARTING
THE NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S HAVE A GOOD BIT OF ROOM TO DROP. COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING...WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING/COVERAGE WOULD STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER WITH A
MENTION OF FROST BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MONDAY...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 60S
(BUT STILL 4-8F OFF EARLY JUNE NORMALS). WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SPOTS.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RECOVER (MORE 70S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SLIDES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...
LOW CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE TERMINAL SITES AND MOST OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING OVERCAST VFR MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID EVENING. THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO EXIT W-E ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY.
WINDS...SOME GUSTINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUSTAINED WINDS SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE. WE WILL
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A N-NE WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY MONDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HOIST SCA/S FOR THIS AREA...LETTING OTHERS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS
REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE LAKE HURON SCA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...BERGER/DE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
733 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MUCH COOLER AIRMASS NOW
FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND MUCH EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. LAGGING BEHIND OFF
THE DECK FRONTAL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RER UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS RAIN AXIS...WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SPREADING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MERGER AND DEVELOPING OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVENING RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...STEADY SOUTHWARD PUSH TO CURRENT RAIN AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER IMPRESSIVE (FOR THE
SEASON) SHORTWAVE TROUGH MERGER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FORCING THIS RAIN SHIELD TO STALL AND INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR...BUT HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY TAKING THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...ENDING ALL RAINS
OVERNIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT...SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH STILL DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND JUST GOTTA
SIDE WITH THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (ESSENTIALLY
IGNORING ALL STRAIGHT MOS GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THAT GIVES MID
30S/LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...NEGATING ANY MENTION OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT. READINGS SHOULD BE A TOUCH CHILLER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. EVEN HERE...MAINTENANCE OF
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A NEED FOR
A HEADLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEK/COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH BULK OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JUST CLIPPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. UNSEASONABLY STRONG
(FOR LATE MAY) 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (850MB 0C ISOTHERM CREEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR).
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL SLIDE MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY...
WHILE NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG IT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING...KEEPING A DECENT NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING GETS ORGANIZED
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE "BUBBLE" IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO PULL AWAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO. THIS WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THICKER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (COULD BE CLOSE FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES SO THAT IS ONE AREA
WORTH WATCHING). WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AROUND 60 PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER).
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY STARTING
THE NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S HAVE A GOOD BIT OF ROOM TO DROP. COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING...WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING/COVERAGE WOULD STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER WITH A
MENTION OF FROST BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MONDAY...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 60S
(BUT STILL 4-8F OFF EARLY JUNE NORMALS). WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SPOTS.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RECOVER (MORE 70S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SLIDES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...
LOW CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE TERMINAL SITES AND MOST OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING OVERCAST VFR MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID EVENING. THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO EXIT W-E ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY.
WINDS...SOME GUSTINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUSTAINED WINDS SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE. WE WILL
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A N-NE WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY MONDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HOIST SCA/S FOR THIS AREA...LETTING OTHERS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS
REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE LAKE HURON SCA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...BERGER/DE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FAIR AGREEMENT IN GENERAL LOOK OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND MOVES
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD DROP ACROSS NW ONTARIO ON
MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING A TOUCH. ONLY IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WOULD BE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
AFFECT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DID NOT RAISE TEMPS TOO MUCH FM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH SINCE PWATS ARE STILL LOW AROUND 0.30 INCH
AND WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WOULD FALL OFF INTO
THE UPR 20S OR LOWER 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD.
TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MONDAY. COOLEST READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALL DAY. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND WEST WHERE TEMPS REACH MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 60S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY MODELS SHOWING DISAGREEMENT HOW
QUICK A WEAKER SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS
RAIN BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE AND H85-H7 AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVEGENCE
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. LINGERING
WEAK SFC GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN AT
THAT POINT. OVERALL SOME ISOLD SHRA MAY MAKE IT INTO WEST UPR
MICHIGAN WED AFTN AS THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE /MORE SO ON THE GEM-NH/...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
TSRA. THOUGH INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON WED
NIGHT THERE ARE HINTS ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE LIFTING IN DUE TO
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA OR JUST BECAUSE REGION IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER WEST CONUS TROUGH. HARD TO TIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TYPICALLY
WILL SHOW UP IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. INCREASING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000-700MB MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SLIDING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/. H85-H7 FLOW IS
FM WSW SO THIS COULD PROPEL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA. PWATS UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES
AND WEAKER CORFIDI VECTORS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. GEM-NH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHER EAST SOLN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...PRETTY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS. DID
LOWER POPS INITIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON SLOWER TRENDS.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SFC LOW REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEST-EAST FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PROBABLY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING
ON THURSDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY IS OVER MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...H85/H7 WINDS FM SW COULD PULL MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LIKELY THE POPS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CANADIAN FRONT SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL WHILE DEEPER FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. SEEMS THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS
MAX POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT
WILL SHAKE OUT. GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ECMWF WAS
MUCH MORE BULLISH...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE IT RIDES OVER
THE EAST TO WEST FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF ONLY HAD
THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE SINCE 12Z RUN ON 29 MAY...AND LATEST RUN
NOW IS QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A WRAPPED UP SFC
LOW TRACKING WEST OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES OR THE ECMWF
GOES BACK TO A WEAKER LOW. TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. NO MATTER...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 DWPNTS
SURGE ABOVE +12C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN NEXT
SATURDAY. AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE...AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE AFFECTING ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY NEXT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT IT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CONSENSUS CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH STIFF NE WINDS FLOWING OVER THE CHILLY LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS /UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S AS OF THIS MORNING PER MTU AND
NOAA BUOY DATA/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
705 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FAIR AGREEMENT IN GENERAL LOOK OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND MOVES
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD DROP ACROSS NW ONTARIO ON
MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING A TOUCH. ONLY IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WOULD BE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
AFFECT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DID NOT RAISE TEMPS TOO MUCH FM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH SINCE PWATS ARE STILL LOW AROUND 0.30 INCH
AND WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WOULD FALL OFF INTO
THE UPR 20S OR LOWER 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD.
TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MONDAY. COOLEST READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALL DAY. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND WEST WHERE TEMPS REACH MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 60S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY MODELS SHOWING DISAGREEMENT HOW
QUICK A WEAKER SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS
RAIN BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE AND H85-H7 AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVEGENCE
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. LINGERING
WEAK SFC GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN AT
THAT POINT. OVERALL SOME ISOLD SHRA MAY MAKE IT INTO WEST UPR
MICHIGAN WED AFTN AS THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE /MORE SO ON THE GEM-NH/...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
TSRA. THOUGH INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON WED
NIGHT THERE ARE HINTS ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE LIFTING IN DUE TO
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA OR JUST BECAUSE REGION IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER WEST CONUS TROUGH. HARD TO TIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TYPICALLY
WILL SHOW UP IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. INCREASING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000-700MB MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SLIDING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/. H85-H7 FLOW IS
FM WSW SO THIS COULD PROPEL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA. PWATS UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES
AND WEAKER CORFIDI VECTORS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. GEM-NH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHER EAST SOLN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...PRETTY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS. DID
LOWER POPS INITIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON SLOWER TRENDS.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SFC LOW REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEST-EAST FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PROBABLY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING
ON THURSDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY IS OVER MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...H85/H7 WINDS FM SW COULD PULL MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LIKELY THE POPS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CANADIAN FRONT SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL WHILE DEEPER FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. SEEMS THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS
MAX POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT
WILL SHAKE OUT. GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ECMWF WAS
MUCH MORE BULLISH...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE IT RIDES OVER
THE EAST TO WEST FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF ONLY HAD
THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE SINCE 12Z RUN ON 29 MAY...AND LATEST RUN
NOW IS QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A WRAPPED UP SFC
LOW TRACKING WEST OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES OR THE ECMWF
GOES BACK TO A WEAKER LOW. TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. NO MATTER...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 DWPNTS
SURGE ABOVE +12C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN NEXT
SATURDAY. AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE...AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE AFFECTING ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY NEXT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT IT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CONSENSUS CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH STIFF NE WINDS FLOWING OVER THE CHILLY LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS /UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S AS OF THIS MORNING PER MTU AND
NOAA BUOY DATA/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MVFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND SAW ARE QUICKLY MOVING BACK TO VFR AT THE
THICK CLOUDS SINK SE OF THE SITES. AFTER...LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS/VIS
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE N WINDS GUSTING
18-25KTS AT CMX AND SAW WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR W ONTARIO PUSHES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.
COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.
BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.
ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.
TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).
WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.. THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.
NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY. NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER. A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.
SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.
SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015
STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A COMPLEX FRONTAL PASSAGE IN TERMS OF PRECIP TIMING...PLACEMENT...
AND COVERAGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 3 AM...THAT
FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NE WYOMING ACROSS SODAK TO THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER THEN UP TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS FROM THERE. THERE IS A HINT
OF A SFC LOW OVER EASTERN SODAK IN THE SFC OBS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS FEATURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TO
THIS POINT...THE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING WELL WITH WHAT THE FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY HAD...SO THERE WERE NOT DRASTIC CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPS DEPARTURE SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
RIGHT OUT THE GATE...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY MODEL THAT HAS
INITIATED ALL THAT WELL. THE HRRR AND 3Z HOPWRF MEMBERS GOT CLOSEST
TO WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND SW MN NOW...BUT HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATE IN GETTING THIS ACTIVITY GOING. STILL...FAVORED THE POP
FORECAST TODAY HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR/HOPWRF...JUST KNOWING WE HAD
TO SPREAD ACTIVITY IN A BITTER FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD SHOW.
WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY IS LEAD WAA SHOWERS OVER ERN MN/WRN
WI WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE MPX CWA BY ABOUT 15Z...THOUGH AT THAT
TIME THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE NEB MOVING
INTO SW MN WITH THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AS WELL WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW MN THAT WILL WORK OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS EXPANSION OF PRECIP
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MORE WINTER-LIKE FORCING FEATURES AS MN/WRN WI
FIND THEMSELVES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH STRONG FGEN NOTED IN THE H85-H7
LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE
PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF LENDING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A
BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW MN TOWARD THE WRN TWIN
CITIES METRO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FROPA AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO LARGELY BE UNDER 30 KTS...WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS WELL.
OTHER TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL UP AROUND 14C...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AGAIN OUT TOWARD EAU...THOUGH CURRENT THOUGHT
IS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THINGS BACK IN THE 70S. ON THE OTHER END OF
THE CWA...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES OUT
AROUND AXN IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT IN WRN MN...WHERE CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH DEWPS
DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING TO
START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOL WITH MIX-DOWN
FROM THE GFS AT 850MB PROVIDING THE FOUNDATION FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE FA. FROST IS LIKELY ALONG
HIGHWAY 8 IN OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES. WIND AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS FROM THE MAVMOS SUGGEST LOWS COULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST FROM A DAY AGO.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FROM A
COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER...INCLUDING MID
LEVEL WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THIS
POINT...ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS WHICH WOULD HAVE
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE TWIN CITIES AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD
STOP THE SHOWERS AT OUR WESTERN BORDER. CERTAINLY DON/T SEE THE
SHOWERS PER THE GFS AS PROFILE DATA SHOWS QUITE THE DRY WEDGE FROM
700 MB ON DOWN WITH ANY FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST. SHRA/TSRA LIMITED O MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT INTO
THE EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING KMSP FOR A COUPLE HOURS...AND
EXITING TO KEAU THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
TIMING OF LOWER CLOD TRENDS INTO THE EVENING. LAGGING UPPER
TROUGH COULD CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OVER
CENTRAL MN...THEN REFORMING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL BREAK OUT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN MN THROUGH ABOUT
04Z...THEN REMAINING VFR INTO WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY SEE VFR
DEVELOP THROUGH THE 12Z-14Z PERIOD THERE. CONFIDENT ON VFR
FORECAST OVER MN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND INTO WESTERN
WI BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
GUSTING TO 25 KTS OVER THE WEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND
GUTS DEVELOPING INTO THE EAST THROUGH 00Z SAT. SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TREND OF THUNDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
LOWER MVFR CIGS/-SHRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FROPA WINDS
BECOMING NORTH AND GUSTY TO 22KTS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH 04Z SAT...WITH LAYERED CLOUDS
EXITING AFTER 06Z. WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 06Z AND
BECOME GUTSY AFTER 14Z SAT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 G20KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A COMPLEX FRONTAL PASSAGE IN TERMS OF PRECIP TIMING...PLACEMENT...
AND COVERAGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 3 AM...THAT
FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NE WYOMING ACROSS SODAK TO THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER THEN UP TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS FROM THERE. THERE IS A HINT
OF A SFC LOW OVER EASTERN SODAK IN THE SFC OBS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS FEATURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TO
THIS POINT...THE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING WELL WITH WHAT THE FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY HAD...SO THERE WERE NOT DRASTIC CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPS DEPARTURE SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
RIGHT OUT THE GATE...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY MODEL THAT HAS
INITIATED ALL THAT WELL. THE HRRR AND 3Z HOPWRF MEMBERS GOT CLOSEST
TO WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND SW MN NOW...BUT HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATE IN GETTING THIS ACTIVITY GOING. STILL...FAVORED THE POP
FORECAST TODAY HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR/HOPWRF...JUST KNOWING WE HAD
TO SPREAD ACTIVITY IN A BITTER FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD SHOW.
WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY IS LEAD WAA SHOWERS OVER ERN MN/WRN
WI WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE MPX CWA BY ABOUT 15Z...THOUGH AT THAT
TIME THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE NEB MOVING
INTO SW MN WITH THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AS WELL WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW MN THAT WILL WORK OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS EXPANSION OF PRECIP
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MORE WINTER-LIKE FORCING FEATURES AS MN/WRN WI
FIND THEMSELVES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH STRONG FGEN NOTED IN THE H85-H7
LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE
PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF LENDING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A
BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW MN TOWARD THE WRN TWIN
CITIES METRO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FROPA AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO LARGELY BE UNDER 30 KTS...WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS WELL.
OTHER TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL UP AROUND 14C...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AGAIN OUT TOWARD EAU...THOUGH CURRENT THOUGHT
IS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THINGS BACK IN THE 70S. ON THE OTHER END OF
THE CWA...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES OUT
AROUND AXN IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT IN WRN MN...WHERE CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH DEWPS
DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING TO
START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOL WITH MIX-DOWN
FROM THE GFS AT 850MB PROVIDING THE FOUNDATION FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE FA. FROST IS LIKELY ALONG
HIGHWAY 8 IN OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES. WIND AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS FROM THE MAVMOS SUGGEST LOWS COULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST FROM A DAY AGO.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FROM A
COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER...INCLUDING MID
LEVEL WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THIS
POINT...ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS WHICH WOULD HAVE
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE TWIN CITIES AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD
STOP THE SHOWERS AT OUR WESTERN BORDER. CERTAINLY DON/T SEE THE
SHOWERS PER THE GFS AS PROFILE DATA SHOWS QUITE THE DRY WEDGE FROM
700 MB ON DOWN WITH ANY FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A LOW CONFIDENCE SET OF TAFS THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA. NO MODEL HAS REALLY PICKED UP WELL ON ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING...WHICH MAKES IT HARD TO BELIEVE
THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THE HRRR HAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORCING. WITH THESE TAFS...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WITH THE THUNDER IS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLOW
IN GENERATING ACTIVITY ALL NIGHT...SO DID SPEED UP ARRIVAL SOME AT
MSP/RNH/EAU. BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS BAND WILL WORK DOWN
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED THE SREF MVFR
CIG PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TIMING THESE CIGS IN AND OUT OF TAFS.
OTHER AREA OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE START OF THE TAFS IS WITH THE
WINDS. BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED
IN WINDS BEING A BIT VARIABLE UNTIL BECOMING NW QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
KMSP...AM CONFIDENT IT WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CIGS DIP UNDER 017
AS THE FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH...WITH TIMING BACK TO VFR TONIGHT ON
THE LATER AS OPPOSED TO THE EARLIER SIDE OF THE TIMING ENVELOP.
ALSO HAVE TRICKY TIMING FOR CHANGING OF WINDS THAT WILL REQUIRE A
RUNWAY SWAP THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LGT AND VRB FROM 14
TO 17Z BEFORE NW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED AFTER 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A COMPLEX FRONTAL PASSAGE IN TERMS OF PRECIP TIMING...PLACEMENT...
AND COVERAGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 3 AM...THAT
FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NE WYOMING ACROSS SODAK TO THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER THEN UP TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS FROM THERE. THERE IS A HINT
OF A SFC LOW OVER EASTERN SODAK IN THE SFC OBS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS FEATURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TO
THIS POINT...THE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING WELL WITH WHAT THE FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY HAD...SO THERE WERE NOT DRASTIC CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPS DEPARTURE SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
RIGHT OUT THE GATE...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY MODEL THAT HAS
INITIATED ALL THAT WELL. THE HRRR AND 3Z HOPWRF MEMBERS GOT CLOSEST
TO WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND SW MN NOW...BUT HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATE IN GETTING THIS ACTIVITY GOING. STILL...FAVORED THE POP
FORECAST TODAY HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR/HOPWRF...JUST KNOWING WE HAD
TO SPREAD ACTIVITY IN A BITTER FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD SHOW.
WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY IS LEAD WAA SHOWERS OVER ERN MN/WRN
WI WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE MPX CWA BY ABOUT 15Z...THOUGH AT THAT
TIME THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE NEB MOVING
INTO SW MN WITH THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AS WELL WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW MN THAT WILL WORK OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS EXPANSION OF PRECIP
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MORE WINTER-LIKE FORCING FEATURES AS MN/WRN WI
FIND THEMSELVES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH STRONG FGEN NOTED IN THE H85-H7
LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE
PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF LENDING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A
BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW MN TOWARD THE WRN TWIN
CITIES METRO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FROPA AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO LARGELY BE UNDER 30 KTS...WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS WELL.
OTHER TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL UP AROUND 14C...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AGAIN OUT TOWARD EAU...THOUGH CURRENT THOUGHT
IS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THINGS BACK IN THE 70S. ON THE OTHER END OF
THE CWA...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES OUT
AROUND AXN IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT IN WRN MN...WHERE CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH DEWPS
DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING TO
START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOL WITH MIX-DOWN
FROM THE GFS AT 850MB PROVIDING THE FOUNDATION FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE FA. FROST IS LIKELY ALONG
HIGHWAY 8 IN OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES. WIND AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS FROM THE MAVMOS SUGGEST LOWS COULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST FROM A DAY AGO.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FROM A
COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER...INCLUDING MID
LEVEL WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THIS
POINT...ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS WHICH WOULD HAVE
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE TWIN CITIES AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD
STOP THE SHOWERS AT OUR WESTERN BORDER. CERTAINLY DON/T SEE THE
SHOWERS PER THE GFS AS PROFILE DATA SHOWS QUITE THE DRY WEDGE FROM
700 MB ON DOWN WITH ANY FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMEPRATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...AFTER
12AM-3AM A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN WI. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS RAIN. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
KMSP...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS /ABOUT 2000FT/ FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT
EARLY IN THE MORNING. IF THE RAIN NEVER QUITE MATERIALIZES...THEN
CEILINGS MAY NEVER GET TOO LOW...BUT WE`D BE SURPRISED IF KMSP
DIDN`T GET A LOW CEILING AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING...EVEN THOUGH
THERE ISN`T A WHOLE OF LOW STUFF OUT THERE NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL SUMMER-LIKE
SHEAR VALUES AND A SFC THERMAL RIDGE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
LINING UP GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER TO I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE UPPER DELTA
REGION...AND ALSO ONE APPROACHING THE PINE BELT REGION FROM THE
COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. MULTITUDE
OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED TO DEPICT FAIRLY
HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE FOREACST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE
IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING OVER SE AR/NE LA REGARDING
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP
IN A MORE ORGANIZED FASHION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. /EC/
&&
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEING NOTED ON RADAR AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRUOGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS. IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY
THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WAS MOVING EAST AND A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD HELP
PROLONG CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE CURRENTLY SILENT OVER OUR CWA
BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY PWATS OVER THE WHOLE CWA WILL BE
BACK UP AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND HELP SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. /22/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOME
UNCERTAINTY IS AGAIN CREEPING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS SHIFT
DUE TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL RUN COMING WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKE ON THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS
TROUGH ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER TOP OF OUR REGION AND SWIRLING
OVERHEAD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THIS SOLUTION
BUT THE MENTIONED EURO IDEA REDUCES CONFIDENCE AND SUGGESTS SOME
CHANCE THAT PROLONGED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MIGHT SHIFT EAST OF
OUR REGION FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
BUT AT LEAST THESE UNCERTAINTIES WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY TO SHOW UP
IN THE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON) IS PRETTY HIGH. WE DEBATED THROWING IN
MENTION OF LIMITED SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
FOR SUNDAY...BUT IN THE END WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF A BIT LONGER
SINCE THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION STILL WEAKENS WIND SHEAR AND GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUITE A BIT AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM SHIFT EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS. OF COURSE HIGH INSTABILITY CAN YIELD SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITHOUT REQUIRING MUCH WIND SHEAR...BUT IN THIS CASE MODEST LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR MORNING TO MIDDAY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. OF COURSE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS TO BE ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ONE TO INCHES OF RAINFALL...SO
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HEART OF THE
REGION TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING IN SOME LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY REPOSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED AXES OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD FUEL THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCTION EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SOME STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BACK WEST INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS WELL ON MONDAY...BUT
THIS PROSPECT COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH
ITS LATEST PROGRESSIVE TAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BE IMPACTED A GREAT
DEAL IF THIS TROUGH IS INDEED PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET-
LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO OUR EAST. IN THAT CASE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES COULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY REPRESENTS (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55) WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND WARMER. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION OF TROUGH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD STILL ARGUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HOPEFULLY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
MODEL CONSENSUS WILL STRENGTHEN REGARDING SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. /BB/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
250 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015
.SHORT TERM: (This Weekend)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015
A few showers dot the radar scope locally, but have my eyes on a
cluster of convection increasing in coverage across eastern KS/OK
early this morning. This activity is moving east at 20KT and is on
schedule to arrive in central MO later this morning between 10 AM
and NOON and eastern MO/western IL between NOON and 3 PM. Additional
storms will likely form this afternoon areawide as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
just like yesterday a few stronger storms could produce some local
wind gusts and/or small hail. Temperatures will range from the 70s
in central Missouri to the 80s across eastern MO and IL.
Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approching the area from the
northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to
our northern CWA. The front will move southeast across the CWA
tonight and Saturday, reaching St. Lous around 18Z. The best chances
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with a
clearing trend from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will depend on convective trends
and frontal position, but generally think upper 60s northwest to 80s
southeast.
Sunday appears to be dry now as the front pushes south and a ridge
of high pressure builds across the region. It will be a cooler day
with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015
A cutoff low is expected to develop across the lower Mississippi
River Valley underneath a bulding ridge of high pressure aloft.
Appears the cutoff will stay far enough south that PoPs will be
limited and temperatures should increase through the period back
into the middle 80s. Next trof of low pressure approaches on
Thursday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the western CWA.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
Short wave continue to lift across the area, still kickig up some
showers in central MO. HRRR is high on this with high MOS pops as
well so have put a vcsh for COU and UIN for some of the overnight
hours. Next weaker wave will likely kick off more tsra Friday
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Skeptical about all the precip the HRRR is
producing before the short wave exits east central mo. Have thus
left short term dry. Scattered tsra for Friday afternoon with more
coverage to the north of STL. Next best shot of precipitation will
be late in the period as the cold front begins moving into
northern mo.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
Much of the shower/thunderstorm activity across central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL was gradually weakening
this evening as the atmosphere was becoming more stable. There was
an area of showers and a few storms across south central MO ahead
of a shortwave trough that will likely move into central MO later
this evening. Very little coverage of precipitation is expected
across our forecast area by midnight or shortly after. There may
be some development of showers/storms late tonight or early Friday
morning due to a modest southwesterly low level jet. This activity
would likely be across central or southeast MO. Low temperatures
tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night due to
plenty of mid-high level clouds along with at least weak south-
southeasterly winds.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
early this evening ahead of 500-hPa shortwave trough with the best
coverage of storms across central Missouri. Combination of nocturnal
stabilization and subsidence behind aforementioned shortwave
should lead to weakening/dissipation of storms as well as a
corresponding drop in coverage late evening/early overnight. Late
tonight...sch/chc PoPs for showers/storms return to the area as
LLJ strengthens and veers from the SSW to the WSW late tonight. As
for temperatures...mild conditions are expected due to a partly to
mostly cloudy sky and a light southerly breeze. Expect lows
tonight in the mid to upper 60s areawide.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
(Friday-Saturday Night)
Another shortwave trough will eject out toward the mid-Mississippi Valley
during the day tomorrow...similar to today just a bit further to the
northwest. PoPs will be on the increase especially Friday afternoon
for portions of central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois
as synoptic cold front associated with northern stream energy slowly sags
southeastward into region. Continued likely PoPs for showers and storms
for Friday afternoon. As for chances of severe weather...appears any
widespread strong/severe storms will be difficult due to weak deep-layer
shear values...around 20 knots. However...isolated strong to severe storms
with large hail/damaging winds does look plausible due to moderately
strong instability (1000-2000 J/kg) values.
Cold front will continue its slow southeastward progression on
Friday night and Saturday. Highest probabilities for showers and
thunderstorms continues to hone in on this period. Timing of cold
front looks to clear CWA by mid/late Saturday morning. Like Friday
...deep-layer shear/instability parameters do not look supportive
of any widespread severe weather...but a strong to severe storm is
not out of the question. Behind the front...showers (along with
some possible embedded thunder) look likely as shortwave trough
slows down and upper-level jet streak backbuilds to the southwest
putting CWFA beneath the RER.
Temperatures on Saturday look to be challenging due to frontal
timing and associated precip chances. Leaned cool (highs in the
upepr 60s to low 70s) for areas well behind the front in central and
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where clouds are
expected to linger along with strong low-level CAA from the north.
For areas further to the south and east...did not deviate too much
from guidance with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees expected.
Tightened PoP gradient a bit on Saturday night with highest PoPs
remaining across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois in closer
proximity to cold front. Did remove some mention of thunder well
behind the front due to lack of instability. Surface high across
the Great Lakes will begin flexing its muscle with much cooler and
drier weather beginning to filter into from the north and east.
Forecast lows are expected to dip back below seasonal norms with
lows generally in the 50s expected.
(Sunday-Thursday)
A cutoff low is still expected to develop somewhere near the
bootheel of Missouri on Sunday. Confined PoPs to far southeastern
sections of the area which will be closer in distance to this
feature as well as remnant cold frontal boundary. Instability looks
meager at best so just mentioned isolated tunder for the far
southern and eastern counties. Lingering clouds with 850-hPa dipping
to near +10C should yield a chilly day for very late May. Highs only
in the mid to upper 60s are expected on Sunday.
Cutoff low is expected to meander slowly to the south/southwest
heading into the middle of next week. Precipitation chances look low
as region will likely be too far north of aforementioned cutoff low
and too far south of main corridor of cyclones transversing the
upper Midwest. Best chance of showers/storms at the moment appears
to be on Thursday with chance PoPs as GFS suggests a trough axis may
approach the area from the west. All in all...the extended portion
of the forecast Monday through Thursday appears to be mostly dry
with moderating temperatures back above normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015
Short wave continue to lift across the area, still kickig up some
showers in central MO. HRRR is high on this with high MOS pops as
well so have put a vcsh for COU and UIN for some of the overnight
hours. Next weaker wave will likely kick off more tsra Friday
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Skeptical about all the precip the HRRR is
producing before the short wave exits east central mo. Have thus
left short term dry. Scattered tsra for Friday afternoon with more
coverage to the north of STL. Next best shot of precipitation will
be late in the period as the cold front begins moving into
northern mo.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 84 69 77 / 30 60 60 60
Quincy 65 81 65 70 / 30 60 70 50
Columbia 66 79 65 72 / 30 70 70 50
Jefferson City 66 80 66 73 / 30 70 70 50
Salem 67 84 69 79 / 20 40 40 70
Farmington 65 80 68 78 / 20 50 40 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
909 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE BIG HORN FOOTHILLS
THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OR MIST OCCURRING JUST WEST
OF BILLINGS. SO OVERALL...I REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT OVER THE BIG
HORNS VICINITY...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO BILLINGS FOR THOSE
FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. REDUCED SKY COVER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFINED AREAS OF
MORNING FOG PER SURFACE OBS. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOOTHILLS /ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA/ EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
RAP SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK 500-MB
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING STABILIZES THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F...BUT WE DID
WEIGHT THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND EARLY-DAY CLOUD
COVER. EXTENSIVE STRATUS FORMED OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 09 UTC AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING...AND OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER
THAN IT HAS RECENTLY AND SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL. IN FACT...FORECAST LOWS AT BAKER ARE IN THE UPPER 30S F.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL JUMP WELL INTO THE 70S F IN MOST PLACES
PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 F IN MANY AREAS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEK...WITH 0-6-KM BULK
WIND SHEAR OF 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...
WE ARE DOWNPLAYING THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS
THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE SREF SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK FROM
200 TO 400 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED STRONG UPDRAFTS. THUS...WHILE WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LOW FOR US TO DO ANY SPECIAL MESSAGING LIKE ISSUANCE
OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT
THERE WAS GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL. THE NAEFS SHOWED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CONTINUING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MON.
SUN WILL FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE CAPE/SHEAR ON THE SREF AND WRF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DID NOT HAVE VERY STRONG CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES.
SUN WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW. MODELS SPREAD CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWED INCREASING CAPES AND SHEAR ON MON SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
SW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC LOW. HOWEVER...NOTED THE ECMWF HAS LESS ENERGY OVER
THE AREA THAN THE GFS ON THU. CONTINUED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S
RUNS...MODELS DID NOT LOOK AS CERTAIN FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR
TUE AND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AS
MODELS TRY TO CLOSE OFF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF
KBIL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...WITH OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 047/078 053/083 056/082 054/078 051/072 050/072
2/W 02/T 32/T 23/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 065 045/073 051/079 053/077 048/071 046/067 043/070
2/T 24/T 43/T 25/T 45/T 44/T 33/T
HDN 066 046/080 052/084 055/086 054/079 052/074 050/076
1/B 02/T 32/T 25/T 42/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 063 045/077 053/081 058/085 057/078 054/073 052/074
0/U 02/T 42/T 23/T 43/T 43/T 23/T
4BQ 062 044/076 054/081 057/084 057/078 054/073 051/074
0/B 01/B 22/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 060 039/068 046/077 053/082 054/076 051/073 049/073
0/B 01/N 42/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
SHR 061 042/076 049/079 053/080 052/075 048/070 046/071
2/W 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
331 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOOTHILLS /ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA/ EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
RAP SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK 500-MB
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING STABILIZES THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F...BUT WE DID
WEIGHT THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND EARLY-DAY CLOUD
COVER. EXTENSIVE STRATUS FORMED OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 09 UTC AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING...AND OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER
THAN IT HAS RECENTLY AND SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL. IN FACT...FORECAST LOWS AT BAKER ARE IN THE UPPER 30S F.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL JUMP WELL INTO THE 70S F IN MOST PLACES
PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 F IN MANY AREAS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEK...WITH 0-6-KM BULK
WIND SHEAR OF 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...
WE ARE DOWNPLAYING THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS
THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE SREF SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK FROM
200 TO 400 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED STRONG UPDRAFTS. THUS...WHILE WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LOW FOR US TO DO ANY SPECIAL MESSAGING LIKE ISSUANCE
OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT
THERE WAS GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL. THE NAEFS SHOWED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CONTINUING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MON.
SUN WILL FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE CAPE/SHEAR ON THE SREF AND WRF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DID NOT HAVE VERY STRONG CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES.
SUN WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW. MODELS SPREAD CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWED INCREASING CAPES AND SHEAR ON MON SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
SW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC LOW. HOWEVER...NOTED THE ECMWF HAS LESS ENERGY OVER
THE AREA THAN THE GFS ON THU. CONTINUED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S
RUNS...MODELS DID NOT LOOK AS CERTAIN FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR
TUE AND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AS
MODELS TRY TO CLOSE OFF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR W OF KBIL. S OF KBIL...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THE KSHR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...WITH WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 047/078 053/083 056/082 054/078 051/072 050/072
1/E 12/T 32/T 23/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 065 045/073 051/079 053/077 048/071 046/067 043/070
2/T 24/T 43/T 25/T 45/T 44/T 33/T
HDN 066 046/080 052/084 055/086 054/079 052/074 050/076
1/E 12/T 32/T 25/T 42/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 064 045/077 053/081 058/085 057/078 054/073 052/074
1/B 02/T 42/T 23/T 43/T 43/T 23/T
4BQ 063 044/076 054/081 057/084 057/078 054/073 051/074
1/E 01/B 22/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 061 039/068 046/077 053/082 054/076 051/073 049/073
1/B 01/N 42/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
SHR 061 042/076 049/079 053/080 052/075 048/070 046/071
7/W 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY
AS INDICATED IN THE INHERITED GRIDS AND AS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CIRRUS WAS EXITING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A JET STREAK PULLS ON EAST. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY, MORE CIRRUS WILL SPILL IN OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TODAY HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. WE ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE MAV (GFS). AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT TODAY WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 99 BUT MANY SPOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAK
RIPPLE NOTED IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS PROGGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
POP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTED THE CURRENT POPS.
EVEN WARMER (MAYBE HOTTER DEPENDING ON YOUR TAKE) IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY THEN GETS PUSHED EAST ON SUNDAY BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. WE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER MAV FOR HIGH TEMPS WHICH PUTS LAS VEGAS AT THE FIRST
TRIPLE DIGITS OF THE YEAR AT MCCARRAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT
HIGH TEMPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON SUNDAY IN LAS VEGAS (RECORD IS 104
SET IN 2002). OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY AROUND BARSTOW.
REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED THIS WEEKEND AND IF IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS BE CAREFUL FOR THE IMPACTS OF SNOW MELT INCLUDING COLD AND
RAPID FLOWS IN STREAMS AND CREEKS AND MELTED SNOW REFREEZING AND
FORMING ICE ON TRAILS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THOUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER A SCORCHING WEEKEND GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING WILL TAKE OVER THE
WESTERN US...LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH ANY IMPACTS AROUND THE AREA LIMITED TO WIND AND HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT MORE
ENERGY COMING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 14-
18 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT
TIMES AOA 25K FEET. TEMPS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100F BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ON SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TODAY THROUGH
AROUND 05Z SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF KBIH-KBJN-KCDC LINE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS AGAIN FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND KDAG.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...STEELE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CIRRUS WAS EXITING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A JET STREAK PULLS ON EAST. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY, MORE CIRRUS WILL SPILL IN OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TODAY HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. WE ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE MAV (GFS). AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT TODAY WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 99 BUT MANY SPOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAK
RIPPLE NOTED IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS PROGGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
POP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTED THE CURRENT POPS.
EVEN WARMER (MAYBE HOTTER DEPENDING ON YOUR TAKE) IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY THEN GETS PUSHED EAST ON SUNDAY BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. WE CONTINUED TO SIDE THE
WARMER MAV FOR HIGH TEMPS WHICH PUTS LAS VEGAS AT THE FIRST TRIPLE
DIGITS OF THE YEAR AT MCCARRAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS
NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON SUNDAY IN LAS VEGAS (RECORD IS 104 SET IN
2002). OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY AROUND BARSTOW.
REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED THIS WEEKEND AND IF IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS BE CAREFUL FOR THE IMPACTS OF SNOW MELT INCLUDING COLD AND
RAPID FLOWS IN STREAMS AND CREEKS AND MELTED SNOW REFREEZING AND
FORMING ICE ON TRAILS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THOUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER A SCORCHING WEEKEND GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING WILL TAKE OVER THE
WESTERN US...LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH ANY IMPACTS AROUND THE AREA LIMITED TO WIND AND HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT MORE
ENERGY COMING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 14-
18 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT
TIMES AOA 25K FEET. TEMPS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100F BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ON SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TODAY THROUGH
AROUND 05Z SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF KBIH-KBJN-KCDC LINE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS AGAIN FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND KDAG.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...STEELE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. THE RADAR HAS SHOWN A
GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THE PAST HOUR BUT SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL BE GENERATED TO CONTINUE THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THROUGH 1130 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AND NORTH MOST THE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT A LEADING TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SO FAR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES THEN THINGS WILL TREND DOWN. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WINDS TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NORTHWEST SEEMS TO BE
KICKING THE WINDS UP A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND A MORE DISTINCT PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AIDED
BY MULTIPLE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THEIR 1630Z DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ML CAPE OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF IMPULSES PROPAGATING NORTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND POTENTIAL WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 16-17 UTC.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF MY EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH. NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MY SOUTH
CENTRAL...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THIS.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS PARKED ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT...FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE HRRR IS SHOWING FOG
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE WRF/RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGAIN THE INGREDIENT THAT APPEARS TO BE LACKING
IS SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING NEEDED TO KICK THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
A DRY AND COOL FRI-SAT AFTERNOON PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT
55-65. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THE 30S. WOULD EXPECT SOME SORT OF FROST HEADLINES BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ROBUST RETURN FLOW WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE MOVES EAST IN ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS
AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO REMOVED THUNDER AND WENT WITH STRAIGHT SHOWERS.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS.
WE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE MODELS
PUT THE STRONGER WAA.
STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/EC MODELS STILL PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR
FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR
WILL SET UP. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT EACH OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH EXACT
TIMING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
252 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. DESPITE WEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS TOWARD THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER OREGON AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC AT ABOUT 150W 37N.
UNDER FLOW OUT OF THE W TO NW...MARINE STRATUS AT THE COAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING ONLY SLIGHTLY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY AND
BUILDING CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH IT`S LIMITED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CREST.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES. MODELS DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB PIN-POINTING THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT YESTERDAY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE
DISAGREEMENT TODAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OVERZEALOUS WITH
INSTABILITY AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NOW ACTIVITY
WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST
STORM MOTION WHICH WOULD CARRY ANYTHING TOWARD THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CREST...WILL DECREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BUT LEAVE THEM MENTIONABLE.
FOR SAT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PAC GRADUALLY MIGRATES EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WITH DEEPER WLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS STILL INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. MODEL FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS EASE ABOUT A DEGREE SAT...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL IN THE 80S INLAND.
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SUN. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST
THROUGH THE GORGE SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SUN
AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS SUN AS MODELS NOT SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN EVENING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND 12Z NAM
IS BEGINNING TO GET ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA...BUT OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED THUNDER THREAT TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE VALLEY.
BOWEN/WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT THE BASE
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE
REGION. THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
CASCADES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO GENERALLY BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT MODELS
SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW.
WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS LOW CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF CENTERS THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHICH WOULD ENABLE SOME RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE GIVEN THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BRIEFLY LIFTED TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST...
COULD STILL SEE SOME CLOUD BREAKS THROUGH 00Z SAT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO RETURN BY 01Z-03Z SAT...DROPPING TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT. VFR INLAND NEXT 24 HRS UNDER DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS IMPACT
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN AFTER 10Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
/27
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NW TO W WINDS
WILL CONTINUE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
908 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. DESPITE WEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS TOWARD THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE VALLEYS AND
UP THE COLUMBIA TO WEST OF PORTLAND. SW WINDS IN THE SOUTH VALLEY
AROUND EUGENE HAVE BROUGHT SOME MARINE AIR IN THERE AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IN THE NORTH VALLEY
THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH MORNING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGHS OR IF MIXING WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR ONCE SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF MIXING PLAYS THE LARGER
ROLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES JUST LIKE YESTERDAY INLAND. ALONG THE
COAST...STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A SMIDGE IN
THE NORTH VALLEY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DOWN A
SMIDGE IN THE NEWPORT AREA TOWARD YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CASCADES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS INCREDIBLY
GUNG HO WITH CAPE BUT TO AN UNREALISTIC EXTENT. THE GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE BUT AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH THE FACT THAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR TSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TSTORM FORECAST FOR
NOW BUT TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT 12Z MODELS AND UPDATES FROM THE HRRR AND
RUC. BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS 500 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N
125W TO A 577 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 50N 140W. ALSO OF NOTE IS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE
OUT AROUND 40N 150W. THIS LATTER LOW IS THE ONE THAT WILL BECOME A
PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH. KKLS REPORTED OVC CONDITIONS AROUND
07Z...SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE NAM AND HI-RES ARW SUGGEST MARINE
STRATUS WILL COME DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND FILL IN WRN CLARK
COUNTY IN SW WA BY 12Z. THE KAST-KDPX GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AT 08Z...2.1 MB...COMPARED TO 08Z THU. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
WARMER INTERIOR RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC PRES. MODEL FORECAST
850 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO THU...MAYBE UP A DEGREE INLAND.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BASED ON THU
VALUES. TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 AT KPDX...IF WE
HIT THE FCST HIGH OF 85.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES. MODELS DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB PIN-POINTING THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT FOR THU...ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. 06Z MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A
POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SOUNDING GIVES AN IMPRESSIVE 2800
J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE...WITH A ML CAPE NEAR 1450 J/KG. AGAIN...
BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVER-DOING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE GFS
HAS A ML CAPE OF 500 J/KG. GFS 700 MB THETA E RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE OREGON CASCADE CREST 00Z SAT. A LITTLE LOWER THETA E VALUES IN
THE S WA CASCADES COMPARED TO THU. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT JUST A BIT MORE W...BUT STILL KEEPING IT IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND NOT THE FOOTHILLS.
FOR SAT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PAC GRADUALLY MIGRATES EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WITH DEEPER WLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS STILL INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES COOLING SAT...BUT NOT SURE TO BELIEVE THAT.
MODEL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS EASE ABOUT A DEGREE...BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WARMER START AM EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO FRI VALUES.
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SUN. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST
THROUGH THE GORGE SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SUN
AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS SUN AS MODELS NOT SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN EVENING. ALSO RAISED INLAND MAX
TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION ANYWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST AND STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE N-NE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND MODELS SUGGESTING H8 TEMPS DECREASING AROUND 10 DEG C BY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK MUCH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY ENHANCE THIS
POTENTIAL AT TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CASCADES SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SHOWERS END AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDING FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER REACHED KKLS THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF BY 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO HAVE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FROM KSLE THROUGH KEUG TO K61S...AND IN
CASCADES TIL 17Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. ROCKEY/27
&&
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH W TO NW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEGUN TO
POP. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND SPREADING SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LAURELS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY. MESO ANAL INDICATES DECREASING
STABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS.
MADE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REGION-WIDE.
THREATS PAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
1/2 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE BIGGEST RETURN IN
MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN THE PWAT ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WAVE IS
PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO
1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...AND CERTAINLY THIS SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT
MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING
THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO
EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY
WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEGUN TO
POP. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND SPREADING SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LAURELS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY. MESO ANAL INDICATES DECREASING
STABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS.
MADE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REGION-WIDE.
THREATS PAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
1/2 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE BIGGEST RETURN IN
MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN THE PWAT ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH HRRR RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING CLOSE TO THE PA/MD BORDER.
OTHERWISE LOOK TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH
BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR OF
JUST 0.50 OF AN INCH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY...WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. QUASI
STNRY FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH INTO PENN TODAY /FIRST INTO THE WRN MTNS...WHERE PWATS
WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT
12Z....VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.
AS MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME...AND BECOME
MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 20-01Z SATURDAY.
WITH 6 KM BULK SHEAR UNDER 20KTS...AND THE SHEAR PROFILE FAIRLY
LINEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 3-18KFT AGL LAYER...MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF TSRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.
BRIEF MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSRA ACROSS OUR
WRN TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION /SHRA AND TSRA/ MAKING IT A KELZ TO KUNV AND KHGR LINE
AROUND 00Z SAT...THEN FIZZLING OUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH PWAT AIR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TSRA
WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 04Z SATURDAY.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...IN THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND JUST WEST OF THE
SUSQ VALLEY
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA LATE SAT NW...AND SAT NIGHT CENTRAL AND SE PA.
SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
447 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH HRRR RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING CLOSE TO THE PA/MD BORDER.
OTHERWISE LOOK TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH
BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT JUST SOME SCT CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z...AND AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL /SUB 0.50/
PWAT AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.
ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...KLNS COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG THIS MORNING SINCE THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED OUT SFC BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TRANSPORT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE OTHERWISE
CLEAR AND COOL AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER ON
FRIDAY...AS MUCH HIGHER PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES STREAMS NE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD
AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.
SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AXIS SETTING UP BEST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW SO THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED THUS FAR TODAY. THEREFORE...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BACK TO THE WEST...WILL LOWER
POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
OTW...TEMPS STILL ON TRACK. READINGS ARE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE
AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYTIME BUT WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WORKED NORTH FROM ALABAMA EARLIER IN THE EVENING
HAVE DISSIPATED. AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHEAST
IN GENERAL REMAINS QUITE MOIST BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME
DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE. 07Z ANALYSIS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOWING A NARROW 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA UP INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLATEAU. AM HARD
PRESSED TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BUT
THE LEAST LITTLE WIGGLE THAT COMES ALONG ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. FOR NOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
BE THE ONLY PLAYER WHEN IT COMES TO PROVIDING THE NEEDED LIFT
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
CURRENTLY THERE IS COLD FRONT OVER DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE THIS WAY
AND BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HANG UP ACROSS
OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RAMP UP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MID STATE WILL
COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB TO > 1000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH.
WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH 7 DAY QPF TOTALS
NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE MID STATE. GOOD BERMUDA GRASS GROWING WEATHER.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLY SOME
MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY AT THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AROUND 12Z
TO 16Z SUNDAY. THE HRRR AND NAM SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
THESE LOW CLOUDS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH BY 08Z TO 10Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT AS POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THIS UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INSERTING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THINK MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO MID 70S TO LOW 80S. NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAY ALLOW FOR ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG
SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN NM.
LONG TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FLOW WILL VEER FURTHER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE
OF THE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WHERE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. BEYOND MONDAY KEPT THE FORECAST DAY AS
A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
ALTHOUGH DID CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MEX AND ECE
GUIDANCE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CATCHING ONTO THE MOIST SOILS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.UPDATE...
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ONGOING EAST OF I-35. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 84 64 86 66 / 20 20 - 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 83 61 85 64 / 30 20 - 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 64 87 66 / 50 30 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 62 84 65 / 10 20 - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 69 89 70 / 10 30 - 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 62 84 65 / 20 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 65 87 66 / 20 30 - 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 63 85 65 / 50 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 63 85 67 / 60 40 - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 85 66 86 68 / 30 30 - 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 86 67 / 40 30 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION...
SEABREEZE EXPLOSION OF STORMS THROUGH THE HOUSTON TERMINALS
WEAKENING AND NOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STORMS FROM NEAR LFK-UTS-11R-66R THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
MORE STORMS BACK INTO THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
2-3" PER HOUR AND TREMENDOUS LIGHTNING COUNTS WERE THE NORM WITH
THE FIRST WAVE AND CAN`T RULE IT OUT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STORMS...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKER AS 3000-3500 CAPE DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WET GROUND FROM FIRST ROUND WILL MAKE
FLOODING WORSE WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT.
EXPECT THESE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH 4-5Z AND BECOME MAINLY A
COASTAL SITES ISSUE BY THAT TIME. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT WHERE IS TRICKY. NORTHERLY FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION
VCSH/VCTS FOR HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER 17Z.
SEABREEZE MAY VERY SLOWLY BACK UP INTO LBX IN THE AFTERNOON AND UP
THE TSRA THREAT THERE AND AROUND GLS.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
MESOANALYSIS...
19Z ANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FROM HOUSTON TO VICTORIA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH C TX NOW THROUGH WACO/TEMPLE AREAS. VIS
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE WITH ANOTHER AREA POSSIBLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CROCKETT TO COLLEGE STATION AND THEN NEAR SAN
ANTONIO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH N C TX AND W TX WHICH HAS ALREADY INITIATED CONVECTION
DOWN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. CONVECTION ALONG THE OUT FLOW OVER C TX
AND HILL COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE GETTING SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
ASSOCIATED LIFT. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY BUILDING UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. CHANGES IN CAPE/CIN THE LAST 3
HRS HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE CAPE AND DECREASE CIN SO STARTING TO SEE
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE AREA.
THINK THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIATING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S ALREADY. SUSPECT THAT IF PRECIP
WATER VALUES WERE HIGHER STORMS WOULD BE FORMING ALREADY. RECENT
TRENDS IN HRRR STILL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS DO 12Z
WRF ARW/NMM RUNS. EVEN TX TECH WRF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 21Z SAT TO 03Z. ONLY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
BE KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING IS SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE
THAN EXPECTED AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK RIDGING AT 700MB. THAT SAID
THERE IS A COLD POCKET OF -13C AT 500MB OVER C TX THAT MAY PUSH
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. TROUGH AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY MID LEVEL RIDGING.
ONCE STORMS DO FORM...THINKING IS THAT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY
SLOW. BUT HI RES MODELS SEEM TO THINK A LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM
WITH A COLD POOL. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS IS THAT STORMS MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND DECREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. STILL NEED TO WATCH BECAUSE ANY STORMS THAT
EXCEED RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR COULD STILL POTENTIALLY
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. IN GENERAL ANY AREA THAT GETS OVER 3
INCHES QUICKLY COULD HAVE FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD STORMS MOVE
SLOWER THE EVEN STORM WITH 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR COULD CAUSE PROBLEM
IF THEY PERSIST FOR ONLY 2-3 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON WE
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS IS.
SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW PRECIP WATER
VALUES DROPPING TO UNDER 1 INCH FOR MONDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
COULD REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK RAIN CHANCES. UPPER LOW THAT WAS
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER LA IS NOW PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SO LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.
LONG TERM...
THUR/FRI/SAT FOR THE COMING WEEK BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND ALLOW FOR GROUNDS TO DRY OUT. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES KEPT IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.
39
MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE MOMENT AND SEAS
OF 2 FEET. THIS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SYSTEM COMING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE AND EXTENDING INTO THE AUSTIN
AREA TO MAKE SURE THEY DON`T TURN EAST. IF SO THEN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR
THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING RELAX AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE FORMS. A LITTLE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH SUSTAINED NEAR 10
KNOTS. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL A
SECOND PUSH OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS ONE IS
SHORTER LIVED. WEDNESDAY IS RETURN FLOW AND MAY FINALLY SEE
SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOT SE-SSE WINDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIDE LEVELS ONE HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY WITH ONSET OF THE MORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 82 64 85 68 / 50 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 84 66 87 68 / 60 40 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 84 73 85 74 / 50 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...45
WARNINGS...33/47
HYDRO...36
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 84 64 86 66 / 50 20 - 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 83 61 85 64 / 50 20 - 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 64 87 66 / 50 30 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 62 84 65 / 40 20 - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 69 89 70 / 40 30 - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 62 84 65 / 40 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 65 87 66 / 50 30 - 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 63 85 65 / 50 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 63 85 67 / 60 40 - 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 85 66 86 68 / 50 30 - 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 86 67 / 60 30 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KAUS TO KTPL LINE AT INITIAL
29/06Z TIME OF TAFS. WILL CARRY WINDS OF 25G45KTS AND 1SM +TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES. THEN TRANSITION TO 5SM -TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF -RA WITH OCNL TS FOLLOWS THE SQUALL LINE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE A MIX OF IFR TO VFR. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT. N-NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE AND THEN TURN TO SE-S BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.
HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.
SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 85 67 83 66 / 30 60 50 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 84 65 82 64 / 30 60 50 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 67 83 66 / 30 60 50 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 65 80 64 / 30 60 50 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 86 68 86 69 / 20 50 60 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 65 81 64 / 30 60 50 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 67 84 67 / 30 50 50 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 84 67 82 66 / 30 60 50 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 85 68 83 67 / 30 60 60 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 85 68 83 68 / 30 60 50 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 68 84 68 / 30 50 50 40 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CURRENTLY MOVG SE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX
OVERNIGHT. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING THE LRD TAF SITE
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z WITH VCT AROUND 07Z-10Z AND ALI/CRP 08Z-11Z.
ACTUALLY PUT LONGER TIMES IN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE SLOWING
OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG/SVR OR WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARD
THE COASTAL BEND AND VCT CROSSROADS. RESIDUAL -SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY MID MORNING OR SO WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME THROUGH FRI EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL
4 AM CDT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CWA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS PROG THAT THE
LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY
EXPANDING THE WATCH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS. ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF CURRENT INTENSITY OF STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT DID NOT INCLUDE SVR IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DID BUMP UP POPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE HOURLY
WX ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE LRD TAF
SITE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. THOUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME IFR VSBYS AT
VCT AND WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG/BR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS GUSTY SE WINDS RETURN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALL IN PART TO A WEAKER CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE OF
PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES PER THE 12Z KCRP/KBRO SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT EXPECTED INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OUT WEST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOCUS TRANSITIONS TO THE MCS COMPUTER MODELS ARE SPINNING UP
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT RESIDES
NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WEAKENING CAP AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...EXPECTING THE LINE
TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA. SOME 4KM WRF MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF LINE MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD BE MORE
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE THETA-E
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE
MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE THE
SLOWER TIMING. THE MAIN LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DRAWING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...MAY SEE
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY RESIDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER DID COOL
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM EXPECTED RAIN AND
CLOUD COVERAGE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY TROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH A
CORRESPONDING SFC BNDRY ENTERING THE CWA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING/MEANDERING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. FURTHER...AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ERN
CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY (DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THE COMBINATION OF THE
BOUNDARY/SRN UPPER TROUGH/NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
OVER THE CWA/MSA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AXIS OVER THE EXTREME WRN
GULF/TX COAST REGION DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
SFC BNDRY WL LIKELY DISSPATE MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TUESDAY-THURSDAY
YET WITH MSTR AS THE LIMITING FACTOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 73 84 71 / 10 30 40 50 20
VICTORIA 74 86 72 83 69 / 20 40 50 50 30
LAREDO 75 90 73 88 72 / 10 30 40 40 10
ALICE 74 88 72 86 70 / 10 30 40 50 10
ROCKPORT 78 84 75 82 74 / 20 30 40 50 20
COTULLA 72 88 71 85 69 / 20 40 50 40 10
KINGSVILLE 76 88 73 86 71 / 10 30 30 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 84 76 81 75 / 10 30 30 40 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.
THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AT THIS TIME I
AM PREDICTING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WITH THIS LINE. THESE WIND
ESTIMATES COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE LINE ACCELERATES.
ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME I EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE LINE...HOWEVER MORE GENERALIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER 16Z. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...A SOLID LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
IT COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT TRIES TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST.
DUE TO ITS CURRENT SPEED AND EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAINFALL TOTALS
PEAKING UNDER ONE INCH. IF THE COMPLEX DOES NOT MAKE IT OFF THE COAST...
WE COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE
IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN AND AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS.
FOR THE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED EVERYONE`S RAIN CHANCES A GOOD
10% TO 20% FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST
AND CHANCE POPS AT THE COAST. FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES ARE GOING TO DEPEND
HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT...WITH A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
FORM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MAKES IT TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SUBSEQUENT HRRR MODEL RUNS. I
ADDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS FOR KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HRRR. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE
HRRR SOLUTION...I MAY HAVE TO MORE AGGRESSIVELY BRING IN MORNING
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA DURING THE 03Z TAF UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. SIMILAR TO
TODAY THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT ALL THE UPCOMING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...HOUSTON IAH DID REACH 90F TODAY WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME
HITTING 90 DEGREES IN 2015. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON IAH HAD A 90
DEGREE DAY WAS OCTOBER 10 2014. AVERAGE 1ST DAY OF 90 DEGREES AT
HOUSTON IAH IS AROUND MAY 7.
HOPEFULLY EVERYONE ENJOYED SOME BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WET WEEKEND WITH PROBABLY 2 PERIODS OF
WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
2 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE S ROCKIES AND W TX
WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOMORROW AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE N ROCKIES WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATE SAT INTO SUN.
WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN W TX WHICH MAY
FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
HOLD THIS LINE OF STORMS TOGETHER AND HAVE IT REACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING HOUSTON BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AS IS THE CASE IN C TX AND N TX.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX
TOMORROW. ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME COOLING WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND DIFFLUENCE IN THE THE JET TO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT.
DAY TIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SHOULD
AGAIN SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WITH A SWATH OF 1.8 INCH PW FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO LUFKIN. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WILL BE A BIG KEY FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE WEAK CAPPING
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE CAP WEAKEST NORTH OF HOUSTON. ORIENTED 50
POPS FOR HOUSTON NORTHWARD BASED ON CAPPING AND LOWER PRECIP
WATER ALONG THE COAST.
MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BY 00Z SUN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DROPPING INTO THE S PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO PUSHES INTO TX AND LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MAY MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE COAST LATER ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK
AND DIFFLUENT DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SAT AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 1.8 INCHES AREA WIDE.
MISSING FROM THIS SET UP IS A STRONG LLJ OFF THE GULF BUT STILL
THINK GIVEN FORCING FROM THE FRONT...VENTING ALOFT WITH DIFFLUENCE
AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES AN HR RAINRATES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS CAN BE ACHIEVED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS TIME FRAME FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ANY STORMS OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE OVER 3
INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST...MORE STORMS MAY BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME BREAK IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING BUT COULD SEE MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY CLOSE OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. DRIER AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE WISH WE COULD END THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF MON INTO TUE
OVER LOUISIANA. ECMWF TAKES THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT SE TX WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY. DESPITE THAT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP AND CONVECTION WITH DAY TIME HEATING.
POSSIBLY BY WED/THU NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MARINE...
THE SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT (IN RESPONSE
TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST)
WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECT-
ING MUCH MORE THAN MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM LATE FRI/EARLY SAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCEC FLAGS FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME. MODELS STILL CALLING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO STALL
OVER SE TX SUNDAY...AND ITS PROXIMITY MAY BRIEFLY BACK WINDS TO THE
EAST AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...THE VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO NEXT MON/TUES. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 85 70 83 67 / 60 50 20 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 71 85 69 / 40 50 20 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 85 76 84 74 / 30 30 20 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL RUNS.
CORFIDI VECTORS AND BEST THETA-E AXIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH ANY POSSIBILITY FOR FOLD-OVER
SHOWERS BACK INTO SE WV COUNTIES NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...OR LATER.
ALSO A SLIGHT HINT IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS OF EASING
DEGREE OF CURRENT SUBSIDENCE AND RETURN OF SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE A MINIMAL THREAT OF SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE IN FORECAST UNTIL DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY BEGINS TO OUR
SOUTH (IF AT ALL) CONSIDERING HOW BULLISH MODELS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY IN GENERATING CONVECTION THAT NOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...MOST OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY IN ALL
AREAS...SO REMOVAL OF THREAT FOR ALL AREAS FOR REST OF THE
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SEEMED WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED TO EXISTING SET OF GRIDS
AT THE PRESENT TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK/LOWER FORECAST CLOUD
COVER. HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS STILL VERIFYING
REMARKABLY WELL AND DO NOT REQUIRE MODIFICATION.
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TONIGHT IN LOCATION THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME PROLONGED CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...NOT MUCH
OTHER LIFT OR SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OR EXPANDED
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY WILL
MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BY DAWN MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADD INSTABILITY TO THE LOW
LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRULY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE HIGH WEDGES AGAINST
THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK...MAINTAINING AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...DO NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SINKING VERY FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUCH...
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
OUR AREA...WILL BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SO BELIEVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WILL
HAVE WATCH FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST...IF NOT ALL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA BASED ON LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
FORECASTS.
WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT EXCLUDING LOW LYING
SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF INTRUSION OF VISIBILITY INTO MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS...SUCH AS AT KBCB...KLWB...AND
KLYH...AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE AT KDAN PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...FOG EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z/09-10AM SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/NOON-2PM...WITH GREATEST
THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS IN
TERMINAL FORECAST TEXT AT KBLF...KLWB...KBCB...AND KROA...BUT NOT
FURTHER EAST AT KLYH OR KDAN.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH THREAT
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS/STORMS BY DAY...AND IN PATCHY FOG EARLY MORNING FOG. LOWER
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...DUE TO PERSISTENT POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL/MOIST AIR WEDGING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WERT
NEAR TERM...AMS/WERT
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO OHIO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ANY FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTH.
IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE SAME LOCATION HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN PUTTING
IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 07/3AM THROUGH NOON/17Z
SATURDAY.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD IN MORE PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEST. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE THAN SIMPLY DIURNALLY
BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL GAIN INCREASED JET DYNAMICS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY IN THE KBLF TAF WHERE STORMS WERE
DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS IN UNTIL
03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. SPC HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER
01Z/9PM THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEFT. BEST
PROBABILITY THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER WILL IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 03Z/11PM.
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR
IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A MAJORITY
OF THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY...AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
DAYS TO BE VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT FRIDAY...
UPDATED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND THE HRRR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOON
AND 2PM/16-18Z. NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS IN ORDER TODAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE FEED ON SE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. FOCUS AGAIN OTHER THAN FOR
OROGRAPHICS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW LOOKS WEAK WITH ONLY A FAINT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH TO HELP WITH ADDED FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT
FASTER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE PROGGED OVER THE VA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WHERE CLOSER TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. IN
ADDITION...GOOD POOLING OF HIGHER 85H THETA-E PROGGED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN SE FLOW...BUT MORE DRYING
SE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE COAST WORKS TO THE NW. THUS WILL
BUMP UP TO A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WEST-NW BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
COMBO OF MOISTURE...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND PROGGED CAPES OF 1-2K
J/KG LATER ON. OTRW MAINLY MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SE. WEAK STEERING AGAIN UNDER HIGH
PWATS SUGGESTS MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER PULSE NATURE CELLS PER SOME DRYING ALOFT
SEEN ON FORECAST RAOBS. KEPT TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS
EAST WHERE EXPECT LESS CONVECTION AFTER EARLY ISOLATED SHRA
FADE...WHILE TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MAV VALUES BLUE
RIDGE...AND POINTS NORTH GIVEN SE FLOW AND ANTICIPATED BETTER
SHOWER COVERAGE.
MODELS SUGGEST SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH NW THIS EVENING AS
BETTER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK SINKING MOTION TO
ADVECT OVER MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY NW. HOWEVER PENDING AFTERNOON
COVERAGE...WILL LEAVE IN SOME DECENT CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS TO INIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE CUTTING BACK TO JUST PC INCLUDING SOME PATCHY FOG LATE.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT LIKELY NOT QUITE AS MUGGY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY SATURDAY GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR SEEN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND N.
FLORIDA LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE LARGE ATLANTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SFC FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
ON SUNDAY...HIGHER PWAT AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST LOCATION
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM MUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF. INCREASING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING
INCREASED COVERAGE IN PRECIP TO THE REGION...AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THEREFORE PUSHED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE TO NEAR LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.
TEMPS COULD AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. BUMPED UP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL PUSH
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...LEAVING BEST CONVERGENCE
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA
AND LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY IN THE KBLF TAF WHERE STORMS WERE
DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS IN UNTIL
03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. SPC HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER
01Z/9PM THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEFT. BEST
PROBABILITY THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER WILL IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 03Z/11PM.
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR
IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A MAJORITY
OF THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY...AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
DAYS TO BE VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT FRIDAY...
UPDATED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND THE HRRR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOON
AND 2PM/16-18Z. NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS IN ORDER TODAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE FEED ON SE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. FOCUS AGAIN OTHER THAN FOR
OROGRAPHICS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW LOOKS WEAK WITH ONLY A FAINT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH TO HELP WITH ADDED FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT
FASTER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE PROGGED OVER THE VA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WHERE CLOSER TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. IN
ADDITION...GOOD POOLING OF HIGHER 85H THETA-E PROGGED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN SE FLOW...BUT MORE DRYING
SE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE COAST WORKS TO THE NW. THUS WILL
BUMP UP TO A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WEST-NW BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
COMBO OF MOISTURE...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND PROGGED CAPES OF 1-2K
J/KG LATER ON. OTRW MAINLY MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SE. WEAK STEERING AGAIN UNDER HIGH
PWATS SUGGESTS MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER PULSE NATURE CELLS PER SOME DRYING ALOFT
SEEN ON FORECAST RAOBS. KEPT TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS
EAST WHERE EXPECT LESS CONVECTION AFTER EARLY ISOLATED SHRA
FADE...WHILE TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MAV VALUES BLUE
RIDGE...AND POINTS NORTH GIVEN SE FLOW AND ANTICIPATED BETTER
SHOWER COVERAGE.
MODELS SUGGEST SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH NW THIS EVENING AS
BETTER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK SINKING MOTION TO
ADVECT OVER MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY NW. HOWEVER PENDING AFTERNOON
COVERAGE...WILL LEAVE IN SOME DECENT CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS TO INIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE CUTTING BACK TO JUST PC INCLUDING SOME PATCHY FOG LATE.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT LIKELY NOT QUITE AS MUGGY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY SATURDAY GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR SEEN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND N.
FLORIDA LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE LARGE ATLANTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SFC FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
ON SUNDAY...HIGHER PWAT AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST LOCATION
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM MUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF. INCREASING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING
INCREASED COVERAGE IN PRECIP TO THE REGION...AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THEREFORE PUSHED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE TO NEAR LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.
TEMPS COULD AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. BUMPED UP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL PUSH
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...LEAVING BEST CONVERGENCE
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA
AND LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FOG REMAINS QUITE SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
LOWER VSBYS RANGING FROM MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS NEAR THE TAF SITES TO
UNLIMITED VSBY UNDER MID DECK IN OTHERS. MAY STILL SEE FOG DRIFT
ACROSS ANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF
BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. SINCE APPEARS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT THE WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...KEPT A PREVAILING MVFR SHRA GROUP WITH
VCTS MENTION AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB THIS AFTERNOON...AND LEFT IN VCTS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDAN WHERE THINK CHANCES ARE LESS WITHIN
THE SE FLOW.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER ALONG THE KBLF-KLWB CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LINGERING MVFR IN SHRA OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING BEFORE ALL
BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR IN SCTD/BKN STRATO-CU AND MID DECK. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THIS
SUPPORTS MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH
ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING KROA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PERHAPS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER
CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAY SEE
ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WHILE LOWER
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WERT
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible in the Idaho Panhandle and
in the Northeast Mountains this afternoon; large hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. Thunderstorm
chances will lessen on Sunday and are expected to be more confined
to southeast Washington and north central Idaho. Meanwhile most
locations will see very warm temperatures with highs in the 80s
through the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly
on Monday into Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in
from the south. Some of the storms on Monday could be strong.
Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the remainder of
the work week with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.UPDATE....
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across north ID will continue
through noon. The showers and thunderstorms that moved through NE
WA and N ID this morning was just round one today. Low pressure
sitting in British Columbia along with a decent wave moving north
just offshore of northern CA will provide enough `squeeze` across
our area this afternoon for another round of showers and
thunderstorms...this time more widespread and stronger. The
showers earlier today just helped to moisten the atmosphere and we
are getting some clearing to the west which will allow for good
heating at the surface to get cumulus to start to build across
the region. The main impact area today for stronger storms will be
Northeast WA and north ID...Stevens, Ferry, Bonner and Boundary
counties. General thunderstorms is possible across all of eastern
WA and north ID today. Threat being torrential rains, gusty winds
and hail. /Nisbet
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...
Today: An upper level low pressure system will sit over central
BC. The eastern half of the region will remain unstable today, but
the wester portion of the region will dry out as drier air pushes
through the Cascade gaps. This will keep the active weather
northeast of a line from Omak to Walla Walla. Much of the eastern
portion of the region is very moist early this morning with P-wats
up over 0.90 inches. Although these P-wats will see a slight
downward trend through this afternoon, the atmosphere will remain
moist across this portion of the region. There is a lot of cloud
cover this morning with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing from the Okanogan Highlands down to the
Camas Prairie. Much of these showers are very wet with heavy rain
being observed underneath the stronger cores. These showers will
keep the primer pumped for more afternoon thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Dew point temps are expected to be in the mid 50s in
the Panhandle and over the Northeast Mtns. Clouds are also
expected to be clearing to the east by the late morning, which
should allow for good surface heating. Models are indicating some
impressive looking surface based CAPEs of between 1000-2000 J/KG.
There will also be a modest amount of shear of around 30 kts
between 0-6 kms. Winds also will veer with height, which will help
to generate some rotation with any thunderstorms that develop.
There is a limiting factor for developing convection and that is
there is no discernible kicker. In other words, there isn`t a
shortwave that will pushing across the region to help generate
convection like what was observed yesterday. With the upper level
low in central BC, it may be close enough to generate some weak
divergence across the northern mtns. In addition, there will be a
weak jet streak that sets up from northwest WA to the Central
Panhandle Mtns. This would also help to create some additional
lift in the left exit region across the northeast portion of the
region (albeit weak). With that said, surface based CAPEs off of
the models are strong for this portion of the region this time of
year. There will also be little to no CIN to overcome as well.
This alone should be sufficient to get convection going. Some of
these storm are expected to become strong and isolated severe
thunderstorms is not out of the question. The primary hazard will
be for large hail and gusty outflow winds. Heavy rain is also
expected, but storms should also be moving at a decent pace to the
northeast. This should limit the possibility for flash flooding
impacts.
Tonight into Sunday morning: Convection should wane quickly with
sunset. This will result in more benign weather overnight. There
will be the possibility for some fog developing by early Sunday
morning depending on how much additional rainfall is observed
today. Best potential for fog would be in the Northern Panhandle
and in the Northeast Mtns. /SVH
Sunday through Saturday: Monday will be the potentially big wx
day as far as thunder potential as a tongue of high theta-e air
surges northward ahead of the ejecting vort max that will lift N
up the Pacific Nw coast. This conveyor belt of higher theta-e air
will provide favorable ingredients that will combine with the
large- scale lift of the ejecting short- wave trough to
potentially initiate strong thunderstorms that will expand NE
through Ern Oregon and into N Idaho and Ern Wa. Uncapped CAPE of
500-1000 j/kg will combine with modest deep lyr shear of 20-30kts.
This should be plenty sufficient to produce bands of embedded
strong thunder comparable to what we saw last afternoon and
evening...though farther east closer to N Idaho. SREF guidance
also supports this slightly farther E corridor of highest thunder
threat favoring hail and gusty winds. Tues, however, will be a
tougher thunder fcst as most model guidance brings the low far
enough inland that the deepest instability from Mon is quickly
shunted E into Wrn Montana. The Tues through Fri period will
resemble closely the wx regime we experienced earlier this week
with the upper low overhead...with a resurgence of showers and
thunder every afternoon where it`s not already showering. There`s
no way we can get around broad-brushing this type of regime given
the high level of confidence we have that pattern recognition
supports the heaviest showers every afternoon. bz
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: A very unstable atmosphere will remain fixed
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle
through at least 00z. This will lead to a chance of thunderstorms
by this afternoon...with the best chances likely impacting GEG SFF
and COE with smaller chances at PUW and LWS. We did not put
prevailing thunder in the forecasts since the HRRR has
consistently kept the bulk of the thunder north and east of GEG-
COE as well as east of PUW-LWS. Nonetheless not confident that
will pan out as the atmosphere is quite ripe for convection with
clearing skies moving in from the west-southwest which should tap
into this instability. Thunderstorms will be capable of small
hail, gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning strikes and
torrential rainfall. Drier air across the Cascades will quickly
eradicate the thunder chances between 00z-02z with the last
remnants hanging on over the northern Panhandle. Remainder of the
forecast should see dry weather with VFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 57 83 59 77 52 / 40 10 10 10 60 70
Coeur d`Alene 81 55 82 57 77 52 / 50 30 10 10 60 70
Pullman 79 55 82 56 75 49 / 30 10 10 20 70 60
Lewiston 87 62 89 63 82 56 / 30 20 20 20 70 70
Colville 82 53 86 56 80 54 / 60 20 10 10 60 80
Sandpoint 74 52 80 54 76 51 / 80 50 10 10 70 80
Kellogg 77 53 80 55 74 49 / 60 30 20 20 70 80
Moses Lake 90 57 88 62 83 55 / 0 0 0 10 50 50
Wenatchee 89 60 86 63 80 56 / 0 0 0 10 60 70
Omak 89 52 85 56 81 53 / 20 10 0 10 70 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HELP FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AREAS WHERE ML CAPES ARE
BUILDING TO GREATER THAN 400 J/KG. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER N-C WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL QUICK INCH OF RAIN. WITH
A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...PRECIP TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A
MINIMUM OF SHEAR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET...AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 WILL
LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN WITH SOME INTERACTION
FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY LEADS ME TO THINK THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE A WIDESPREAD
INCH...LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...COULD FALL.
ELSEWHERE...A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH LOOKS REASONABLE. NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES
IN. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY THE START
OF SATURDAY MORNING...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL BE HANGING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THERE FOR THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER EXITING
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 21Z. AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS. WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE POTENTIAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
HOURS. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND H850 TEMPS LESS
THAN +2 C PROVIDE A LIKELY SCENARIO OF FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AFTER DEALING WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION.
AIR MASS MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME FROST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED TO SHIFT A BIT MORE EAST. RETURN FLOW 850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERN SECTIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SO
HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST. PROGS IN
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SUBSIDING AND A RETURN TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PCPN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD RIGHT ALONG AND
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RAIN INTENSITY INCREASES...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
CIGS FALLING TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
MOST RIVERS LEVELS PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT
WERE MAINLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. AN ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL REVERSE THAT TREND
WITH SOME RIVERS LIKELY RISING TO NEAR FS AND PERHAPS A FEW
EXCEEDING INTO THE MINOR FS LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HIGHER 2 INCHES AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH
RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OR POST FRONTAL REGION...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO EMBEDDED STORMS.
TDH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...INTO EASTERN NEB. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...FOCUS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV-
ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...EXITING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAP MODEL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/700-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING 700-500MB LAPSE RATES GOING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
RATES WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAND/BOG COUNTRY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THAT AREA...AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD/THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
70-75 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY SEE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPE SLOWLY
INCREASES. NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. FOR
KRST...THE 29.15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST
00Z WHILE THE 29.12Z HI-RES ARW IS A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER. GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST...WILL LEAD TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER ARW AND SHOW A CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z. AS
THE ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS EAST...THE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
KLSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
STORMS WILL END WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH...CEILINGS SHOULD THEN COME DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT KRST TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING - MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL...MESO MODELS ALL POINT TO AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS
AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO.
TO THE WEST...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF A SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT OBVIOUSLY HAS ENOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POP SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NAM BUILDS ABOUT 1 K
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST AT
NEARLY TWICE THAT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED AS MORNING CONVECTION EXITS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER. IF
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN DO RESULT IN GFS-ESQUE LIKE VALUES...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SKINNY PROFILE TO CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP/STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MEAGER...MOSTLY POST THE FRONT...AND IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER.
OVERALL...NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS...BUT UNLESS STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND OVERLAPS WITH
THE MARGINAL SHEAR MORE...THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH BUILD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFYING IT AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WOULD SERVE TO SHUFFLE MOST BITS OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH WEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR THIS RIPPLE IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WHICH IS MINIMAL VIA RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A SFC HIGH IS SLATED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ALL THIS MIND...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH WED...HOLDING ONTO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CLOSEST TO ANY FORCING. CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVES SMALL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU/THU NIGHT. DON/T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT
PER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS FORECAST
FOR THE MOMENT. CAVEAT TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS...IF THE
RIDGE ISN/T QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...COOL AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 14 C THIS
MORNING...TO 4 C BY 00Z SUN. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP STANDARD ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY 0 TO -1 SAT/SUN...SO ITS NOT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP US A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATE MAY
NORMALS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND FOR THE START OF JUNE...WITH SOME 80S LOOKING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY SEE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPE SLOWLY
INCREASES. NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. FOR
KRST...THE 29.15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST
00Z WHILE THE 29.12Z HI-RES ARW IS A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER. GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST...WILL LEAD TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER ARW AND SHOW A CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z. AS
THE ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS EAST...THE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
KLSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
STORMS WILL END WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH...CEILINGS SHOULD THEN COME DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT KRST TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.
WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
231 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED A LITTLE MORE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN FORECAST
PREVIOUSLY. THUS...WILL INCREASE POP VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP THE
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITONS
ELSEWHERE. DRY MUCH OF NEXT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE MEDUIM RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A SYSTEM ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POP VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU 31/18Z. AFT 31/18Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST
OF A KTUS TO KSOW LINE...WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF A KFHU-KSAD LINE BETWEEN 31/20Z AND 01/04Z.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/18Z...THEN WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-14 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS TIL 01/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 01/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY
BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM
COUNTY...AND THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS OF 0845Z BUT DON`T SEEM TO BE HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT`S CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF
PHOENIX WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S. WHILE WE`VE GOT SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO AND I`M
NOT EXPECTING TO SET ANY RECORDS...I COULD EASILY SEE COMING CLOSE
TO THE RECORD BUT DROPPING BELOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE RECORD WARM MIN
TEMP AT SKY HARBOR IS 83 DEGREES FOR REFERENCE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON...TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND
YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO
TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIRESW ARW AND NMM/
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX.
STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE
WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE`S EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS
DEWPOINTS AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD LITTLE
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TIMING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRFIELDS. CU
BUILDUP WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH ISOLD
TSRA WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA/PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/STRONGER INSTABILITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES
CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATED HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS 08Z-14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL A COUPLE OF OTHER
MODELS INDICATED IFR ACROSS THE CSRA AFFECTING AGS/DNL 09Z-14Z.
HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD PERSISTENCE WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AROUND 15Z AS
MIXING COMMENCES WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
A SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS GIVEN SCATTERED COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BREAK IN THE IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO SOME LOW VFR CIGS PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARDS PIA. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IF THIS DOES
GET INTO PIA...IT WON`T LAST VERY LONG AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WRAPPING ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THRU
MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF
BREAK TO LOW VFR CIGS AT PIA BUT WON`T EXPAND THAT FURTHER ACROSS
THE TAF FORECAST AREA...KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY NEW DATA
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...IF THEN...OVER IN PIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THRU THE NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS. LOOK FOR SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DIMINISHING WINDS
TOWARDS EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
358 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST
PERSISTENT BAND OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LOCATED IN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW MICHIGAN... WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED SOME SINCE FROPA AND RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING WILL NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS...
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS AROUND 11KFT RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. SO STILL APPEARS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND CONSIDERING HIGH AMOUNTS THAT FELL IN
THE AREA YDAY... WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LINGERING MOIST NE FLOW AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY TODAY WITH JUST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM
NW-SE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE M-U40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS OVERALL
TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES,
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INITIALLY BOTTLED
UP AND ALLOW FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HAVE GRUDGINGLY
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WITH SIGNALS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOR PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND HARD TO TIME
SUBTLE WAVES THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST TO WRN PA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT SBN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FWA IN MORE SHOWERY SECTOR OF THE STORM ATTM BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND AFFECTING SBN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NE
INDIANA THIS MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT THE TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTN AS LOW MOVES AWAY... HOWEVER IFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING
THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-024.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SPAWNING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF INDIANA AND OHIO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON DROPPED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WEST OF PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WATCH. RADAR MOSAIC AND
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN IL AND IN TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA WHILE FILLING IN EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH STRONG
THETA E ADVECTION WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WAS VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING QUICK BURSTS OF
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS IN 30-45 MINUTES.
WHILE LOSS OF HEATING MAY TEMPER ACTUAL TSRA...WARM CLOUD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT EXISTS OVERNIGHT WITH 30KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH WEST TO ENCOMPASS MOST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT NOW WELL
INLAND EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE NEAR THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO OPTED TO KEEP LAPORTE AND BERRIEN OUT OF WATCH AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS AND POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING
AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF APCHG POTENT SRN
STREAM SW EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE MO BOOTHILL A LG CONCERN GOING
FWD. NR TERM MARGINAL SVR THREAT TIED TO SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN YET TEMPERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR. THUS SUSPECT NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
WIND THREAT THROUGH SUNSET. HWVR RAPIDLY INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX/ASCENT SEEN INADV OF CLOSING/DEEPENING MID LVL CIRC PORTENTS A
A FURTHER WIDENING/CONSOLIDATION OF CONVN WITHIN DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF WHICH SHLD BE A VRY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.
OTRWS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE SOLUTION SPACE THAT OVER EMPHASIZED
THE MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS NW IN/SW MI AS COMPOSITING OUTFLW
ALG A KCMI-KDFI LINE SHLD IMPEDED BTR NWD MSTR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH LT
EVENING WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL QPF THERE.
UPR WAVE FLATTENS AND SHEARS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN AND XPC
PCPN WILL DIMINISH/END QUICKLY THROUGH MID MORNING. HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLD CVR AND DEEP NERLY FLW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WEAKENING DEFORMATION PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD EXIT
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING INVERSION SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLOW
EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY HELPING TO SLOW EARLY WEEK
WARMING TREND.
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE BLOCKING IN NATURE AS
SOUTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE MEAN
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN FOR LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
GFS IS A BIT MORE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH WEAK VORTS ROTATING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THIS SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK
SIGNALS/FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AS MENTIONED...MODERATING TREND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...BUT SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST TO WRN PA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT SBN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FWA IN MORE SHOWERY SECTOR OF THE STORM ATTM BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND AFFECTING SBN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NE
INDIANA THIS MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT THE TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTN AS LOW MOVES AWAY... HOWEVER IFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING
THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-024.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY. WIND
SPEED WILL PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. MEANWHILE
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO BE NEAR KGLD INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF KMCK. SINCE
THIS SO FAR OUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KGLD TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING FOG FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG HAS
BEEN PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST DATA. THEREFORE AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CLOUD FREE SKY OTHER THAN SOME VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS IS PROBABLE AS SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, A COOLER OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTS UPPER 40S TO ABOUT 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND RAP13 ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AFTER 9
UTC, HOWEVER THE RAP 13 DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER WEST THAN CENTRAL
KANSAS VERY PATCHY COVERAGE, WHILE THE NAM , WHICH IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE, EXTENDS AREAS OF FOG MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL
GFS MOS, BUT MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING, SURFACE WINDS
WILL AGAIN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83-COLORADO BORDER CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL PERHAPS TOO RAPIDLY
SURGES DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE SUNDAY AND MID 60 BEYOND
THAT. NAM IS THE ONLY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD BRING SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM SE COLORADO INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AS OF THIS TIME NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ARW/NMM ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME/AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PROCESS TO HANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY INITIATE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AOA 250
THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TODAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GRADUALLY WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNSET AND TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS NEAR 050 AND VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BLO
3NM CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR HYS TO EAST OF DDC
AND TO DISSIPATE IN CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MINOR FLOODING ALONG CROOKED CREEK IN MEADE COUNTY CONTINUED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STREAM HAS CROSSED BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE
RECENTLY AND THE WARNING IS CANCELED. UPSTREAM WATER ACROSS
CREEKS IN NORTHERN FORD AND SOUTHERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES COULD ADD
TO THE FLOW ON THE PAWNEE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO TWO AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REACTIONS DOWNSTREAM ON THE PAWNEE TOWARDS
LARNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 83 65 85 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 59 84 64 87 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 60 90 62 89 / 10 10 20 10
LBL 60 87 62 88 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 56 82 62 85 / 30 30 20 10
P28 58 81 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUTHI
HYDROLOGY...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID TERM
AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS STARTED OUT WELL AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SO ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN GOING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
MORE OF THE FORCING GOES NORTH AND THE LEAST ELEVATED CINH IS ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THAT FORCING AND WEAKNESS IN THE
INHIBITION SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS BUT AM ALSO ANTICIPATING FOG.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES. CONSIDERING THE MORNING STRATUS AND WINDS COMING
MORE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...AM SIDING TOWARD COOLER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. AS ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH
COMES UP AGAIN AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT THAT WARMUP AGAIN WILL BE TEMPERED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUT/CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DOES
SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
IN GENERAL LEE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME STRONGER THAN
OTHERS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AND WET ONCE AGAIN. KNOW IT IS FAR OUT...BUT THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST .05 ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS IT.
SO A WET AND NOT VERY HOT PATTERN LOOK IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY. WIND
SPEED WILL PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. MEANWHILE
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO BE NEAR KGLD INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF KMCK. SINCE
THIS SO FAR OUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KGLD TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING FOG FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG HAS
BEEN PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST DATA. THEREFORE AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO INCREASING POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER TN AND VA SHOULD
AT LEAST BRUSH PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLED VALLEYS THAT HAD DROPPED
OFF A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POVIDING JUST ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED
CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY DURING THE
DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...MODEL AND
RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO INCREASING POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR
THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER TN AND VA SHOULD
AT LEAST BRUSH PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLED VALLEYS THAT HAD DROPPED
OFF A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS IL AND WESTERN KY AND INTO IN. CONVECTION
HAD THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. ACROSS
EASTERN KY...CU DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN SOME CASES. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER OVERNIGHT IF NOT MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF EASTERN KY AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION/ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THERE
IF NOT IN SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THOUGH FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SEEING DRIER
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS...OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR EAST...IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 AND
20 MPH. DESPITE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THE RADAR HAS
REMAINED RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL WAVES BRUSHING BY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THESE SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND
ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BUILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PROBABLY MORE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THIS PART OF THE
STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION PROGS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
AS THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE HOLDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
SIMILARLY...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER...PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
AND MAINLY DRY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT POPS
HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICAL EXPECTED FOR
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT. FOR ANY STORM THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME MID LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS...
COOLER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...MILDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE RATHER WET
MET NUMBERS AT JKL EACH PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SETTING
UP A CLASH OF AIR MASSES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. OF COURSE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP
ON ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
STAYS MORE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INSTEAD OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...MONDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH WETTER AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THUS...WILL RAMP UP POPS TO CHANCE/LIKELY
WITH A GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO LESSER POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL THROUGH EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
THE COMING WEEK WILL FEATURE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURES FORECAST
PENDING THE FRONTAL POSITION EACH DAY...BUT POTENTIAL EXIST THAT WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA
AS CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. REGARDLESS...THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK ON THIS FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POVIDING JUST ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED
CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY DURING THE
DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCES TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
541 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS FCST HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTN...BASED ON 5 AM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH AT SOME LCTNS ACROSS THE
N WERE COOLER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BY INCORPORATING A TREND OF THE LATEST 5 AM OBS
INTO AN UPDATED OBSVD LOW TEMP FROM LAST NGT...THEN POSTING THIS
LOW AT 6 AM...THEN INTERPOLATING TO 2 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...SKY...
POP AND 6HRLY FCST QPF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GOING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
356 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
918 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO CURRENT FCST. USED LATEST MDNGT OBS
TO UPDATE FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 5-6AM WHICH WERE RAISED
A FEW DEG F BASED ON MDNGT OBS BEING WARMER THAN THE PRIOR FCST OF
TEMPS AT THIS HR.
ORGNL DISC: ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS
OF 50+ KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE
FIRST BATCH ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
ATTM. THE SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF
CONVECTION. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS
WELL TO ENHANCE THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR
TSTMS FOR NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS
STANDPOINT. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
W/PRECIP JUST IN THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW
PRES WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR
AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT
STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY
RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF
DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES
CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN
THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND BHB, VFR GOING TO
MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN
STEADY RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BAD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL SPREAD...WITH KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN
IMPACTED BY IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. THE WIND AND SEAS HAVE
FINALLY COME UP AND THE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. THE WIND WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY
W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP.
SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EVEN HEADING
THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN
THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
FAIR AGREEMENT IN GENERAL LOOK OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND MOVES
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD DROP ACROSS NW ONTARIO ON
MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING A TOUCH. ONLY IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WOULD BE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
AFFECT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DID NOT RAISE TEMPS TOO MUCH FM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH SINCE PWATS ARE STILL LOW AROUND 0.30 INCH
AND WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WOULD FALL OFF INTO
THE UPR 20S OR LOWER 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD.
TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MONDAY. COOLEST READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALL DAY. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND WEST WHERE TEMPS REACH MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 60S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY MODELS SHOWING DISAGREEMENT HOW
QUICK A WEAKER SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS
RAIN BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE AND H85-H7 AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVEGENCE
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. LINGERING
WEAK SFC GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN AT
THAT POINT. OVERALL SOME ISOLD SHRA MAY MAKE IT INTO WEST UPR
MICHIGAN WED AFTN AS THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE /MORE SO ON THE GEM-NH/...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
TSRA. THOUGH INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON WED
NIGHT THERE ARE HINTS ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE LIFTING IN DUE TO
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA OR JUST BECAUSE REGION IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER WEST CONUS TROUGH. HARD TO TIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TYPICALLY
WILL SHOW UP IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. INCREASING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000-700MB MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SLIDING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/. H85-H7 FLOW IS
FM WSW SO THIS COULD PROPEL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA. PWATS UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES
AND WEAKER CORFIDI VECTORS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. GEM-NH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHER EAST SOLN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...PRETTY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS. DID
LOWER POPS INITIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON SLOWER TRENDS.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SFC LOW REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEST-EAST FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PROBABLY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING
ON THURSDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY IS OVER MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...H85/H7 WINDS FM SW COULD PULL MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LIKELY THE POPS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CANADIAN FRONT SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL WHILE DEEPER FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. SEEMS THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS
MAX POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT
WILL SHAKE OUT. GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ECMWF WAS
MUCH MORE BULLISH...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE IT RIDES OVER
THE EAST TO WEST FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF ONLY HAD
THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE SINCE 12Z RUN ON 29 MAY...AND LATEST RUN
NOW IS QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A WRAPPED UP SFC
LOW TRACKING WEST OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES OR THE ECMWF
GOES BACK TO A WEAKER LOW. TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. NO MATTER...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 DWPNTS
SURGE ABOVE +12C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN NEXT
SATURDAY. AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE...AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE AFFECTING ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY NEXT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT IT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CONSENSUS CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH STIFF NE WINDS FLOWING OVER THE CHILLY LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS /UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S AS OF THIS MORNING PER MTU AND
NOAA BUOY DATA/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT 08Z...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO ERN NEBR...KANSAS TO THE TX PNHDL.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE. A FEW
SHOWERS NW OF THE BLACK HILLS WEST ACROSS NRN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 54 AT PINE RIDGE TO 41 AT BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...THERE MAY BE SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND POSSIBLY AS FEW SPRINKLES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BELOW 700MB STILL FAIRLY DRY SO
NO MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. HIGH FROM NEAR 70 ONL TO 81 AT
IML. ALSO A BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND EAST OF AN IML THROUGH VTN
LINE AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN SRN
IDAHO WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WEST OF AIA THROUGH LBF WHERE HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 80 AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS AREA WHERE MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND 0-3KM CAPES OF
400-800 J/KG. COVERAGE COULD BECOME SCATTERED MOVING ACROSS SWRN
NEBR THIS EVENING WITH POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER MONDAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS.
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE RIDGING
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER NORTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF OF THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WILL CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AS THEY TRACK
EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC DEW PTS NEARING 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL HELP PULL DEEP
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU SE
MT/NERN WY WOULD REACH NRN NEB AROUND 14Z. THE HRRR MODEL WEAKENS
THE STORMS TO HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS. SO THAT IS IN THE
FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE LARAMIE RANGE 18Z-21Z
SUNDAY AND MOVE E-SE INTO SRN PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB 21Z-00Z. THE MODELS MAY
BE TOO FAST WITH THIS SO ACTIVITY COULD REACH WRN NEB 00Z-03Z AND
EXIT EAST AROUND 09Z-12Z. WE WILL SEE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED.
NO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE RAP SLOWED THIS DOWN AND
KEEPS THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THUS VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE...AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WHILE ROSCOE AND BRADY WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THE STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE IS
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT. LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AT TIMES THIS WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THIS RUNOFF COULD CAUSE
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST WARNING
INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S-
CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING
THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
AN EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES PUSH WEST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR A BROKEN MVFR
DECK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT GOES LOWER
OR OVERCAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS THREE SHORTWAVES
NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THE FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS...A
SECOND OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND A THIRD OVER SRN COLORADO. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS. ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...SRLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...2 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 57 AT VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH...TO 62 AT
BROKEN BOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A SCT DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SCT DECK TO HELP PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE WARMEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOWER TO MID 50S TD/S BY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IS IN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM
DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY /MORNING/ WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY /AFTERNOON/ WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECOND IMPULSE. THE GFS GENERALLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE. AT THIS POINT
FAVORING AFTERNOON STORMS WHICH FIRST FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA /ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/...THEN THE STORMS SHOULD
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUNDINGS FROM WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND CAPE /GENERATED FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES/ FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF A STRONG STORM OR
TWO...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FLOW NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED SRLY
WINDS WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND HIGH 50S IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
WYOMING AND SERN MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS TOMORROW
EVENING COULD LEAD TO A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE STORM IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...RESULTING IN SB CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z
TUESDAY. LIKE SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM
EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE MON AFTERNOON...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN H850 JET ORIENTED FROM
WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KTS WILL FACILITATE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HRS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ATTM
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GREATER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST OVER SRN SD. ON
TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HEATING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
PUSH CAPES UP TO 4000J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WEAKER ALLEVIATING THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
WILL REACH 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING...SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FCST K INDEXES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ATTM...THIS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED.
.LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO SWRLY MIDWEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY WEEK LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK SO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU SE
MT/NERN WY WOULD REACH NRN NEB AROUND 14Z. THE HRRR MODEL WEAKENS
THE STORMS TO HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS. SO THAT IS IN THE
FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE LARAMIE RANGE 18Z-21Z
SUNDAY AND MOVE E-SE INTO SRN PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB 21Z-00Z. THE MODELS MAY
BE TOO FAST WITH THIS SO ACTIVITY COULD REACH WRN NEB 00Z-03Z AND
EXIT EAST AROUND 09Z-12Z. WE WILL SEE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED.
NO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE RAP SLOWED THIS DOWN AND
KEEPS THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THUS VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. NEAR STEADY RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD EFFECT RIVER LEVELS. PLEASE CHECK THE
LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
534 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD.
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW MTN ZONES ATTM. A WELL-DEFINED
AREA OF 925-850 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE...AND ELEVATED PARCEL
LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO C BASED WITHIN THE SAME LAYER...WILL
SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA
ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL BE SMALLER AND MORE SPOTTY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OUT IN A NEARLY EAST-WEST
DIRECTION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE/PERSISTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AND STORM MOVEMENT NEARLY
PARALLEL TO IT AT TIMES...ENCOURAGED US TO FORECAST A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-1.25
INCHES...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY AFTER 2 PM.
IN ADDITION...MDTLY STRONG LLVL VEERING AND 0-1KM HELICITY /ALONG
WITH POCKETS OF EHI BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM ABOUT
KFKL...KDUJ...KUNV AND KSEG/KIPT BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z TO 0.1Z
TEMPS WILL START THE DAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE NRN MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE M/U60S...WHILE
MIN READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL STAY AOA THE 70F
MARK.
8H TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE M80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...HEATING
OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF OHIO...SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...THUS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THIS AREA TO THE
75-80F RANGE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LVL CAA...COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE L60S ALONG THE NY
BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING CFRONT...CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE CAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
THUS...WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SVR WX SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCAL AMTS NR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR DRY STRETCH OF WX...THE FLOODING THREAT
DOESN/T APPEAR ESPECIALLY HIGH. MDL CONSENSUS PLACES THE BEST CHC
OF SHRA/TSRA AND GREATEST MEAN QPF ALONG AND JUST S OF
FRONT...SPANNING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG I-80. POPS RANGE FROM
LIKELY IN THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
SUN AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING
AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND
WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO
ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IPT/UNV TROUBLE SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CIG/VIS. OPENED
TROUBLE TICKET ON MISSING UNV CIG. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TS MOVG
ENEWD BUT NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IND TO PIT
BY 00Z MON AND THEN PUSH SLOWLY EWD ALONG/S OF PA- MD LINE TWD
DELMARVA BY 12Z TUE. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SWD TO THE I80 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DIVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND 60+F DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR/S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NMRS TSTMS OVER WRN PA BY
20Z WITH LESS CVRG TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES
TO CONVEY TSTM IMPACT RISK EXCEPT BFD WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
COOL/STABLE AIR WITH ENE SFC WINDS BY THIS AFTN. IN GENERAL LOOK
LOW CIGS TO COVER THE FAR NRN AIRSPACE WITH MARGINAL TO VFR CONDS
PREVAILING IN THE SOUTH. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS /WITH LCL IFR/
LOOK PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TAFS WITH
PCPN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD. THE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 FROM ...TO
ERIE AND BUFFALO AT 2 AM. THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MUCH
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE FCST AREA FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
ATTM. A WELL DEFINED RIBBON OF 925-850 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND
ELEVATED PARCEL LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO C /AND BASED WITHIN
THE SAME LAYER/...WILL LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING TO THE ENE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS..AND AFFECTING MANLY THE WESTERN AND NRN MTNS OF PENN.
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DECENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF SFC INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENN /AND FEEDING NORTH TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR/ WILL
MAINTAIN/FOCUS THE BULK OF PRECIP TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN
PENN.
CONVECTION WILL BE SMALLER AND MORE SPOTTY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN NEARLY STALLS AND STRETCHES OUT IN A NEARLY EAST-
WEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE/PERSISTENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND STORM MOVEMENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT AT
TIMES...ENCOURAGED US TO FORECAST A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MODERATELY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-1.25 INCHES...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY AFTER 2
PM.
WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BIT OF FOG THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY. HOWEVER...
WILL
TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE U50S OVR THE N TIER TOWARD DAWN W/ARRIVAL
OF COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE M/U60S EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF PA
TODAY. COLD FRONT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL BE PROGGED TO
STALL OUT NEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATER
TODAY.
8H TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE M80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...HEATING
OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF OHIO...SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...THUS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THIS AREA TO THE
75-80F RANGE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LVL CAA...COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE L60S ALONG THE NY
BORDER.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE CAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. THUS...WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
SVR WX SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE
FRONT COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LOCAL AMTS NR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR DRY STRETCH OF
WX...THE FLOODING THREAT DOESN/T APPEAR ESPECIALLY HIGH. MDL
CONSENSUS PLACES THE BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AND GREATEST MEAN QPF
ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT...SPANNING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG
I-80. POPS RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA SUN AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING
AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND
WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO
ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IPT/UNV TROUBLE SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CIG/VIS. OPENED
TROUBLE TICKET ON MISSING UNV CIG. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TS MOVG
ENEWD BUT NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IND TO PIT
BY 00Z MON AND THEN PUSH SLOWLY EWD ALONG/S OF PA- MD LINE TWD
DELMARVA BY 12Z TUE. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SWD TO THE I80 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DIVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND 60+F DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR/S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NMRS TSTMS OVER WRN PA BY
20Z WITH LESS CVRG TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES
TO CONVEY TSTM IMPACT RISK EXCEPT BFD WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
COOL/STABLE AIR WITH ENE SFC WINDS BY THIS AFTN. IN GENERAL LOOK
LOW CIGS TO COVER THE FAR NRN AIRSPACE WITH MARGINAL TO VFR CONDS
PREVAILING IN THE SOUTH. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS /WITH LCL IFR/
LOOK PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TAFS WITH
PCPN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
1500 TO 3500 FT MID MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF
SHRA OR BKN/OVC MVFR CEILINGS AT KFSD AND KHON...BUT POTENTIALLY
LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN KHON. HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS IN
SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
AREA RADARS SHOW ONLY VERY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HRRR AND MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SINCE THAT AIRMASS HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER FROM SUNDAY STORMS. WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS WELL. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE/
SCT TO BKN VFR DECK CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER KAUS/KSAT/KSSF/KDRT
TERMINALS. CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH 09-12Z TO MVFR AND IFR
EXCEPT KDRT WHICH SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000FT. SOME -SHRA/-DZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 17Z TO VFR. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN WITH WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TO REDEVELOP WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KDRT/KSAT/KSSF.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND FORECAST DATA
MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL THE OBSERVATION
CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR THIS TAF SITE
UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ONGOING EAST OF I-35. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 86 66 88 68 / - 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 85 64 87 66 / - 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 87 66 88 67 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 65 86 66 / - 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 70 91 71 / - 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 65 87 67 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 87 66 89 67 / - 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 65 87 67 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 85 67 87 69 / - 10 - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 86 68 88 69 / - 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 67 88 69 / - 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE/
SCT TO BKN VFR DECK CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER KAUS/KSAT/KSSF/KDRT
TERMINALS. CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH 09-12Z TO MVFR AND IFR
EXCEPT KDRT WHICH SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000FT. SOME -SHRA/-DZ MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 17Z TO VFR. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN WITH WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TO REDEVELOP WITH
IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KDRT/KSAT/KSSF.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND FORECAST DATA
MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL THE OBSERVATION
CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR THIS TAF SITE
UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ONGOING EAST OF I-35. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
MAJORITY OF TSRA IS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT KAUS/KSSF/KSAT.
INCLUDED A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO CAPTURE THIS AND TO
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR APPROACH ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE CESSATION OF THE
RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RETURN TO
VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOSS OF OBSERVATION DATA AT KDRT WARRANTED THE INCLUSION OF AN
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE TAF. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A VFR
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FORECAST DATA MENTIONS MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE OBSERVATION CAN BE RETURNED...NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE GIVEN FOR
THIS TAF SITE UNTIL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AT 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244 FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER MCS
HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE VERY PULSE LIKE. HAVE GOTTEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS AND LOTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND COLLIDE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE
STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 64 86 66 88 / 20 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 61 85 64 87 / 20 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 64 87 66 88 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 84 65 86 / 20 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 69 89 70 91 / 30 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 84 65 87 / 20 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 87 66 89 / 30 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 85 65 87 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 63 85 67 87 / 40 - 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 66 86 68 88 / 30 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 86 67 88 / 30 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
119 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL RUNS.
CORFIDI VECTORS AND BEST THETA-E AXIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH ANY POSSIBILITY FOR FOLD-OVER
SHOWERS BACK INTO SE WV COUNTIES NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...OR LATER.
ALSO A SLIGHT HINT IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS OF EASING
DEGREE OF CURRENT SUBSIDENCE AND RETURN OF SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE A MINIMAL THREAT OF SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE IN FORECAST UNTIL DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY BEGINS TO OUR
SOUTH (IF AT ALL) CONSIDERING HOW BULLISH MODELS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY IN GENERATING CONVECTION THAT NOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...MOST OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY IN ALL
AREAS...SO REMOVAL OF THREAT FOR ALL AREAS FOR REST OF THE
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SEEMED WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED TO EXISTING SET OF GRIDS
AT THE PRESENT TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK/LOWER FORECAST CLOUD
COVER. HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS STILL VERIFYING
REMARKABLY WELL AND DO NOT REQUIRE MODIFICATION.
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TONIGHT IN LOCATION THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME PROLONGED CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...NOT MUCH
OTHER LIFT OR SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OR EXPANDED
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY WILL
MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BY DAWN MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AREAWIDE.
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADD INSTABILITY TO THE LOW
LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRULY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE HIGH WEDGES AGAINST
THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK...MAINTAINING AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...DO NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SINKING VERY FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUCH...
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
OUR AREA...WILL BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SO BELIEVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WILL
HAVE WATCH FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE MENTION. OTHERWISE MAIN
CONCERN WITH FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CLOUDS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK AS FORECAST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY DEEPENS PER LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE SO ONLY
OPTING TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND KDAN TOWARD DAWN
AND MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
NOW. EXPECT FOG COVERAGE TO BE A BIT LESS THIS MORNING AFTER GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOLING...DO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
THAT MAY AGAIN GET ADVECTED INTO A FEW OF THE TAF SITES INCLUDING
KLWB/KBCB. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF INTRUSION
OF VISIBILITY INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THESE
LOCATIONS WHILE LEAVING IN A BRIEF MENTION AT KLYH/KDAN BUT NOT AT
KROA OR KBLF THIS MORNING PER LACK OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY MORNING...FOG EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE BY
13-14Z/09-10AM SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/NOON-2PM...WITH GREATEST
THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A PREVAILING PERIOD OF CONVECTION AT KBLF/KLWB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED VCTS AT KBCB AND KROA...BUT NOT FURTHER
EAST AT KLYH OR KDAN.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE THREAT
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT
PERIODS OF SUB- VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS BY DAY...AND IN PATCHY FOG EARLY MORNING
FOG. MODELS TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING
MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS
LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WERT
NEAR TERM...AMS/WERT
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
516 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE..TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS OF 0845Z BUT DON`T SEEM TO BE HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT`S CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF
PHOENIX WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S. WHILE WE`VE GOT SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO AND I`M
NOT EXPECTING TO SET ANY RECORDS...I COULD EASILY SEE COMING CLOSE
TO THE RECORD BUT DROPPING BELOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE RECORD WARM MIN
TEMP AT SKY HARBOR IS 84 DEGREES FOR REFERENCE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON...TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND
YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO
TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIRESW ARW AND NMM/
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX.
STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE
WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE`S EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS
DEWPOINTS AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
AND PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED POP AND SKY COVER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST. SBCAPE VALUES IN THE MODELS RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS
WELL WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...NYC METRO...NE NJ...AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
THE NCAR WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER NE NJ AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND ALSO NYC PER SOME OF THE NCAR WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AS SAGGING FRONT OFFERS FOCUS FOR REPEATED TRAINING OF
STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER NJ.
NAM/SREF AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS...DEPICTING AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FARTHER INLAND FROM THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY UP INTO INTERIOR SW CT. LACK OF A STRONG LLJ TO PROVIDE
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE INFLUX ALSO MAKE PINPOINTING LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAIN UNCERTAIN. ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON THE
MOTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST RAIN MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
AND/OR JUST TO ITS NORTH.
LATEST FFG INDICATES AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED IN
AN HOUR FOR FLASH FLOODING OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...WHERE AMTS
OF ABOUT AN INCH WOULD STILL CAUSE URBAN FLOODING.
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS INTO NE NJ...
WITH A MARGINAL RISK A LITTLE FARTHER NE INTO NYC METRO...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AND SW CT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT...BUT HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO THESE AREAS.
ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OVER LONG ISLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY OR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOWER IN THE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE N/NE. INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MARITIME LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE E/NE SETTING UP BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NYC/NJ METRO..SOUTHERN CT...AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE BEST FORCING RESIDES. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
AN ISOLATED STORM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 80S IN THE NYC/NJ METRO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE ADDITION OF SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE
REGION BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-90
KT JET. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER WHERE THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
RESIDE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLOWER EASTWARD TREND THEN CURRENT FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT. FOR NOW...HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE
MUCH WARMER AS CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE
70S FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
VFR WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM N TO S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. START TIME OF
TSRA 1-2 HRS EARLIER FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS AND LATE TODAY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RAIN AND BR THIS EVENING
A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND
FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS OVER 25 KT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS S OF THE ROCKAWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER WITH A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUING TODAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAY BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BRIEFLY TO
NEAR 5 FT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT HIGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. OCEAN SEAS
WERE RUNNING JUST UNDER 4 FT AND WILL KEEP AROUND 4 FT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THE WIND SHIFTS TO EASTERLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NYC
METRO...NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD POSE A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. PROBABILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR NW MA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS N CT INTO NW RI WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM. HRRR AND
HI-RES WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FILLING IN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE MOVING TO THE S
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS S ACROSS SNE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE GENERATING OVER 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...MAINLY FROM N CT TO THE MASS PIKE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST SHEAR IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF WE CAN GET OVER
1000 J/KG OF CAPE THERE MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST S
OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LINE UP TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS ARE NEAR 1.75" AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 1-2" RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WITH AXIS FROM I-84 TO THE MASS PIKE AND THIS RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD WITH CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MASS PIKE REGION 16-18Z AND THE S COAST
20-22Z. TEMPS FALL SHARPLY INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MAX TEMPS MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES S OF THE MASS PIKE BEFORE THE
FROPA. ALSO...A PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS LIKELY ACROSS
NE MA AFT 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE A LOT COOLER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN FELT IN SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT AS SURFACE FORCING
MECHANISM IS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT COULD SEE STRATUS/DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
TOMORROW...
MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING
HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE....IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SURFACE AND
850MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW.
EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO BE SCT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE. BUT AS THE SYSTEM AND BETTER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EXPECT COVERAGE TO INTENSIFY...ESP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
LLJ...BELIEVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY THAT
THUNDER WILL DEVELOP AS THE MARITIME AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION STABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CHANGEABLE PATTERN MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN USA LATE THIS WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOW POTENTIAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER MONDAY-TUESDAY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THAT
WOULD FOCUS RAIN/SHOWERS AND BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS. BUT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND THE
GENERAL FLOW OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO GENERATE OUR GRID DATA.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING A COOL MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA.
THIS WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER EACH
DAY. THE PREVAILING FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTHERLY. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
ALSO WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH MAY GENERATE A
COASTAL LOW LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING RAIN UP THE COAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE MASS PIKE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE NE MA IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT...
16-18Z NEAR THE MASS PIKE REACHING SOUTH COAST 20-22Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS ESP
ALONG MASS EAST COASTLINE.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITHIN ANY SCT -SHRA MONDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL PICK UP AND COULD DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF THE PIKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS ALONG
THE MA EAST COAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS FARTHER INLAND. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...
WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE ACROSS E MA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER NE MA
WATERS...A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS...SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.
OTHERWISE ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST
TO NEAR 15 KTS. SCA FOR BUILD SEAS FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
TOMORROW...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. A SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ROUGH SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS AND FOG DID MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING THIS STRATUS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE REGION AND WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TRIED
TO UPDATE TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR LOOKED REASONABLE...SO USED THAT AS THE BASIS FOR THESE
CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN
LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND DOWN TO THE SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z. APPEARS THAT
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY AGREED ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IS BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW
ALOFT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO A
SLOW STORM MOTION. STILL APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE MASS
PIKE AND ACROSS 1-84 IN CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY. SBCAPES ARE FORECASTED TO
BE AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FROPA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TIME WHERE PERHAPS THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LINE UP TO PRODUCE A STRONG STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
CT/RI TO THE MASS PIKE REGION AS SOUTH COAST WILL REMAIN STABLE DUE
TO THE MARITIME FLOW.
LASTLY...APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESP
NORTH OF THE PIKE AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
DESCENT CAA. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 14C DOWN TO 8C
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PIKE MAY SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
DIE DOWN DURING FROPA...HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH...ESP ALONG THE NORTHEAST MASS COASTLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE A LOT COOLER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN FELT IN SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT AS SURFACE FORCING
MECHANISM IS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT COULD SEE STRATUS/DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
TOMORROW...
MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING
HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE....IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SURFACE AND
850MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW.
EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO BE SCT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE. BUT AS THE SYSTEM AND BETTER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EXPECT COVERAGE TO INTENSIFY...ESP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
LLJ...BELIEVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY THAT
THUNDER WILL DEVELOP AS THE MARITIME AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION STABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CHANGEABLE PATTERN MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY THIS WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN USA LATE THIS WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOW POTENTIAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER MONDAY-TUESDAY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THAT
WOULD FOCUS RAIN/SHOWERS AND BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS. BUT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND THE
GENERAL FLOW OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO GENERATE OUR GRID DATA.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING A COOL MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA.
THIS WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER EACH
DAY. THE PREVAILING FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTHERLY. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
ALSO WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH MAY GENERATE A
COASTAL LOW LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING RAIN UP THE COAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE MASS PIKE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE NE MA IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT...
15-18Z ALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE REACHING SOUTH COAST 21-00Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS ESP
ALONG MASS EAST COASTLINE.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITHIN ANY SCT -SHRA MONDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL PICK UP AND COULD DROP TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF THE PIKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS ALONG
THE MA EAST COAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS FARTHER INLAND. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...
WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE ACROSS E MA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER NE MA
WATERS...A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS...SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.
OTHERWISE ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST
TO NEAR 15 KTS. SCA FOR BUILD SEAS FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
TOMORROW...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS
AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. A SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ROUGH SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND STALL THROUGH
MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MEANDERING NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A 300 HPA SHEAR AXIS.
THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM HILTON
HEAD SOUTH TO OSSABAW ISLAND ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE LITTLE; ONLY MEANDERING WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE MATURES, LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GROWS.
THE ULTIMATE DEGREE OF SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING A
NUMBER OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH MOST ACTUALLY SHOWING A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN TO STICK
WITH A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE 20-40 POP REGIME TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
GRIDDED POPS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE BEAUFORT-
SAVANNAH-RICHMOND HILL CORRIDOR.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AN INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS IN TACT PER 12Z RAOBS AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO A FEW
STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH PINNING DOWN
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT. SHOULD SEE SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE BEACHES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA /CSRA/...DUE TO THE
PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT LEAST INITIALLY...COULD
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOWS COULD FALL TO THE
LOWER 60S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE AWAY FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. MEANWHILE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND LINGER
INLAND. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL
HELP PUSH RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. TEMPS MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/31 GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND WELL
OFFSHORE. ASSUMING THIS PATTERN HOLDS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY TYPICAL WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 70 AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE KSAV TERMINAL FROM 15-18Z AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL APPEARS VERY
SMALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. SMALL CHANCE FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MOSTLY DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THU.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING.
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN SEAS COULD BUILD
INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...LINGERING SWELL ENERGY AND
PROXIMITY TO FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY. BEST
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ALONG DIVIDE PER NAM
WITH BEST SHEAR NORTH OF LINE FROM HAILEY TO SUN VALLEY. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAP THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONLY MODIFICATION TO
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO MATCH THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC AREAS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN WEATHER GRIDS. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGES AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
IDAHO FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DAILY OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SNAKE PLAN WELL INTO THE 80S.
WILL START TO COOL DOWN TUESDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT
SOME STORMS WHERE THEY DEVELOP TODAY TO BE NEAR SEVERE.
GK
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG PACIFIC COAST INTO
CALIFORNIA THEN INLAND KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE PUSHING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE THIS
SOLUTION. KEPT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
GK
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW COAST TODAY
WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPORARY TSTM IMPACTS
SNEAKING INTO THE VALLEY AT KBYI AND KPIH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING NORTH TO KSUN AND KIDA OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO
THE OREGON COAST. HUSTON
FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NW COAST
TODAY BEFORE EJECTING INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON MONDAY.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH MONDAY WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE
IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHEARS
EAST INTO MONTANA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SECOND STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NW STATES
AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO END TO
THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER IN SIGHT. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DESPITE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAST NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BLANKET CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE SLIM.
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH SOME DRYING/MIXING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 15Z/10AM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG A
KRFD TO KOTM LINE...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS ARE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SO CLEARING LINE IS NOT MAKING ANY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE KILX CWA AT THIS TIME. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TODAY. AM
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA
AROUND GALESBURG. FURTHER EAST...HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHERE CURRENT OBS SHOW CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND
REDUCED VISBYS. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S DUE TO SOME LATE DAY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS. PIA
AND SPI SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CLOUD
HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH PIA POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMBING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 20Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ILLINOIS WEAKENS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS. PIA
AND SPI SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CLOUD
HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH PIA POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMBING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 20Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ILLINOIS WEAKENS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS IT NEARS EASTERN
KY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KSME AND KLOZ FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 18Z...MAKING IT TO KSJS CLOSER
TO 0Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
THE RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE GENERALLY
FROM THE SW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DESPITE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF TAF SITES ARE IMPACTED
BY ANY OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VIS COULD BE
TEMPORARILY LOWERED. SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS EVENING...KEEPING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL...MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT ONCE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z...BUT ULTIMATELY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT IMPACTS AND SEVERITY THE FOG WILL
HAVE AT EACH SITE.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
ISOLATED CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCE/S TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
1137 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE: FORECAST IS MOSLTY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BANDS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST. TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AS RAIN COULD
FALL FROM MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION TO HOULTON AND FURTHER SOUTH.
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THAT
LINE...AS DRY 1000-850MB CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CROWN OF
MAINE.
0800 AM UPDATE: DID A QUICK UPDATE THROUGH 00Z TODAY TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AS SUB-TROPICAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. KEPT
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUMONT/MCW
MARINE...DUMONT/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0800 AM UPDATE: DID A QUICK UPDATE THROUGH 00Z TODAY TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AS SUB-TROPICAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. KEPT
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS.
530 AM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS FCST HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTN...BASED ON 5 AM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH AT SOME LCTNS ACROSS THE
N WERE COOLER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BY INCORPORATING A TREND OF THE LATEST 5 AM OBS
INTO AN UPDATED OBSVD LOW TEMP FROM LAST NGT...THEN POSTING THIS
LOW AT 6 AM...THEN INTERPOLATING TO 2 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...SKY...
POP AND 6HRLY FCST QPF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GOING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL
UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS
MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE
SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A
HLF INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME
HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL
OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST
POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A
DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A
COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN
THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC
PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING
TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND
FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE
DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY
EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR
THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND
ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE
THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND
STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT.
SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED
THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA
GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE
AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO
HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/DUMONT/MCW
MARINE...VJN/DUMONT/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION
WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ITEM OF
NOTE IS THAT NE WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20KT AT TIMES TODAY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EVEN HEADING
THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN
THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-006-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S-
CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING
THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WETTER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MAINLY TIED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY. THIS SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF VERY
MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS COUPLED WITH A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE TIME
FRAME WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. BASED ON UPPER
SUPPORT...POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THE THREE DAYS TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE REGION TO START THE DAY. PLAN TO HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER WITH TIME. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO
RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS MODEL GUIDANCE
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN
GULF.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY FUNNEL ENOUGH COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RECOVER
BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS WILL AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING (11-16Z)... WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
OCCURRENCE AT KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION... A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGSO/KINT THIS MORNING AS WELL. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD
LIFT BY 16Z OR SO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
TRIAD REGION (KGSO/KINT). THUS... HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KGSO/KINT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE... PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE TAFS.
LOOKING AHEAD: CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS MON-WED AS A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE WOULD MAKE A DECENT FORECAST TODAY
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS RIDGING BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS LOCALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH
AROUND 90 WELL INLAND...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT
AT THE BEACHES. THIS WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
SPC HAD A MRGL RISK FOR THEIR SWODY1 RIGHT UP TO THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...BUT HAVE SINCE PULLED THAT BACK CONSIDERABLY. THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AS ONCE AGAIN DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL LID SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY. IN FACT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS REDUCED POP TO MAINTAIN
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF...DEVELOPS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY...BUT THIS STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE AND EVEN MOVE WEST...SO
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR...IF NOT A LITTLE
LESS...THAN YESTERDAY. PWATS ARE ONLY ABOUT 1.25 INCHES TODAY...SO
MANY COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY...AND ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY
AFTER DARK.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT...AND
LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL WX GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
EAST AS A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUES EVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST...LEAVING SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH TO CUT
OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MON INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT AND POSSIBLY HUNG UP NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...FINALLY REACHING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY WED
MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION TO SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT IS CLOSER TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. THEREFORE MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN INLAND AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND
CONVERGENCE AROUND HIGH. BY LATE TUES RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BRUNT OF
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WEATHER REMAINING FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH.
AS WE LOSE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AS RIDGE SLIPS EAST
THROUGH LATE TUES ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER HEIGHTS. WARM BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO
70. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MID 80S MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 90
INLAND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUES AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BIT LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRETCHED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WED MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WEAKEN MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE BUT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FEEDING MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER END DEWPOINT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KFLO HAS EXPERIENCED
TEMPO IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO RE-OCCUR. WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT N.
EXPECT THE SAME GENERAL WEATHER TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT VFR FOR THE MOST PART AS
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NW-NE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL TEND TO DECREASE AND MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT TO KLBT/KFLO BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF IFR CIGS INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THU.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM AN
EXPANSIVE CENTER NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AT THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE EAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE OR FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SE IS POSSIBLE. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM TO REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED.
GUIDANCE IS UNDER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL...AS THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING
3-4 FT AT 11 SEC...A FULL 2 SEC LONGER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL
KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT TODAY...HIGHEST NEAR THE 20 NM
BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY
MAKE IT SOUTH REACHING THE WATERS MID WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
WINDS INITIALLY BUT WILL SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WIND WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS
MOST OF THE TIME WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY
DAMPENING OUT THROUGH TUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SOUTH
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY REACH THE WATERS BY THURS. AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EAST-SE BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP S-SE WINDS LESS THEN 10 KTS AND MAY SEE A GREATER SHIFT
TO E-NE IF FRONT DOES MAKE IT SOUTH BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS
3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK LATE THURS IN
INCREASING ON SHORE E TO NE FLOW IF FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP DURING THE WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE AREA ORIENTED N-S CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS AS WELL.
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND IT. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR START DRYING THE AREA OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RH FIELDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALSO STILL DRY SLOT
THE AREA BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE
PULLED POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASED
POPS OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER.
PREV DISCUSSION->
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVEL
INTO OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70...THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION ARE MOST
PREVALENT. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD SEE ONLY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A REGIME OF WEAKER FORCING BUT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY.
A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER SHALLOW CONVECTION AND WEAK WIND FIELDS.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOUT A HALF
AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH GENEROUS
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGH CAPACITY OF SOILS AND STREAMS
RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBILITY NORTH OF I-70 IN HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION...WITH
HIGH RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHILE CLOUDS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. FOR TUESDAY...THE
HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND ALL LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY ROBUST NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH UP TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MODERATION TO THE LOW TO MID
70S IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPREAD TO CVG/LUK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CIGS DROP INTO IFR TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
OCCURRENCE AND KEPT CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...DO
EXPECT IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT PER SREFS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SMALL AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WITH PREVAILING GRADIENT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY REMAINS
THAT ANY CLOUDINESS IMPACTING KSUX AND KFSD TAF SITES WILL BE JUST
INTO THE VFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY PAST TODAY. DECENT COVERAGE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BEST THREAT
FOR SOME PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KHON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING TIME OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AND UPPER
DYNAMICS OUTRACING THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT KEEPS
MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR KFSD OR KSUX BELOW THRESHOLD FOR
THE TIME. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RETURN SOME
LOWER CLOUDINESS TOWARD KSUX TOWARD END OF PERIOD...AND FOR NOW
HAVE HINTED TOWARD LOWER END OF VFR RANGE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER IS LOOKING UP...PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD. COLD FRONT GETTING DIFFUSE BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART IN THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH (BEHIND
THE FRONT). SO EXPECT TO SEE A PLEASANT DAY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRYING OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS HEADED TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR FROM CLEVELAND TO EDNA WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING AND 30S ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PW NEAR THE COAST CURRENTLY 1.4-1.6" PER GPS
IPWV WHILE BASTROP IS DOWN TO 1". EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO
STRUGGLE TO FIGHT INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER OF THE LL ATMOSPHERE BUT LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND REMAINING
MOISTURE (AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MB) WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AFTER REACHING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 82. STORMS SHOULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE
COAST IF THEY FORM. BY EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD END AND A
PLEASANT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DRY EVENING ON TAP. RESPITE FROM THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 64 85 66 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 87 67 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
MARINE...46
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 64 85 66 87 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 66 87 67 88 / 30 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP THE AZ/NM
BORDER. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AND SOME MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MORNING
TWC/FGZ RAOBS MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEDIAN...THOUGH GPS-BASED IPW INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
PHOENIX AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AMIDST WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES IN SE AZ. EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT NON-ZERO SBCAPE REMAINS RELEGATED
TO FAR SE AZ. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ASSIMILATED THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUGGEST THE EXISTING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INROADS INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING RIDGE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. BUT AGAIN...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL E0NSEMBLES KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HIGHER MTNS OF EAST-CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...WELL EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. FOR LOWER DESERTS...CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME VERY MINOR CIRRUS. SOUTHWEST AND WEST
SURFACE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS OVER METRO PHOENIX...LINGERING THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS OVER SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA THIS
AFTERNOON TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT CHANGING TO WESTERLY
GUSTINESS OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS EVENING. SIMILAR WIND PATTERN
MONDAY EXCEPT MORE DISTINCT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER METRO PHOENIX.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
STATES...THE STRONGEST ONE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL COOLING AND CONTINUED
AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZINESS...FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 PERCENT
RANGE...EVEN HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE QUITE MODEST
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH MIDWEEK...BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IMPROVING DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 106 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
219 PM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP THE AZ/NM
BORDER. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AND SOME MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MORNING
TWC/FGZ RAOBS MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEDIAN...THOUGH GPS-BASED IPW INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
PHOENIX AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AMIDST WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES IN SE AZ. EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT NON-ZERO SBCAPE REMAINS RELEGATED
TO FAR SE AZ. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ASSIMILATED THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUGGEST THE EXISTING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INROADS INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING RIDGE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. BUT AGAIN...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 106 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON INTO
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY
TO AROUND 50 F NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY
UNCHANGED FROM TUCSON WWD VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT DEWPOINTS WERE
ABOUT 10-20 DEGS F HIGHER ACROSS ERN SECTIONS VERSUS THIS TIME SAT.
31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.62 INCH...AND
THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY VALUES WERE NEAR 0.75
INCH ADJACENT THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. 31/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
588 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR SE ARIZONA WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NWD INTO IDAHO. LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WILL BE NE OF TUCSON ACROSS
GRAHAM AND NRN GREENLEE COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE 31/14Z RUC HRRR. THE 31/12Z NAM REMAINED CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING FAIRLY DECENT LIQUID AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
GRAHAM COUNTY.
THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. AT ANY RATE...
BASED ON THE ABOVE DIAGNOSTICS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE INHERITED
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING APPEARS
QUITE REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT
1-4 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST OF A KFHU-KSAD
LINE BEGINNING 18Z-19Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35-40 KTS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR 01/07Z.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FEW
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL UNTIL LATE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY SWLY TO NWLY AT 8-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY
BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM
COUNTY...AND THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /231 AM MST/...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN
FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. THUS...WILL INCREASE POP VALUES FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP THE LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITONS ELSEWHERE. DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING
DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE MEDUIM RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOWED
A SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POP VALUES FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES IN PLACE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION
CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ATOP EASTERN
AZ. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND SOME
MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. LATEST TWC/FGZ RAOBS
MEASURED PWATS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEDIAN. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CU ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...THOUGH THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE BIG STORY. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 106-108 AROUND PHOENIX WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO /104-106/. AS THESE
VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY TO TEMPERATURES. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR /ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HIRESW ARW AND NMM/ ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX. STILL LOOKING AT BL MIXING RATIOS
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-6 G/KG RANGE WITH 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE
THESE VALUES ARE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY BY MONSOON
STANDARDS...IT SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. THERE`S EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS DEWPOINTS
AREN`T EXPECTED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. I INCREASED POPS INTO THE
10-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE HRRR...NAMDNG5...AND NAEFS PROBABILITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE DESERTS AND POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING AT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR FIRST STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY
MID WEEK MOST LOCALES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY JUNE.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS
ALL OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND TEMPORARILY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN AND OF ITSELF ISN`T
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...IT`S THE POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES THAT
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO PHASE ANDRES` REMNANT
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOCAL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS ANDRES` CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH VERY FEW /IF ANY/ SHOWERS OR STORMS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
AND OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TROPICAL ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. NONETHELESS
GIVEN THE ATYPICAL NATURE OF DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE SOCAL COAST IN
JUNE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS A BIT /CLIMO PLUS
5-10 PERCENT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS VALUES/ FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS TO FIRM UP THE DETAILS AND LET THE MODEL SPREAD SETTLE
DOWN A BIT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TROUGHING TENDS TO VERIFY FAIRLY WELL
IN THE MODELS...THUS I`VE GOT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL /MID 90S/ BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CU BUILDUPS/FIELDS WELL
EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED BREEZINESS...GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE
MOSTLY FAIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...A BIT BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE OR TRANSPORTED
OVER THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH MONDAY...
PHOENIX FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
------- -------- ------ ------
SUN 107 109 (2012) 100
MON 106 111 (2012) 100
YUMA FORECAST RECORD NORMAL
---- -------- ------ ------
SUN 105 113 (2012) 100
MON 105 114 (2012) 100
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ
CLIMATE...LEINS/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
325 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE/LOW IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE (BRINGING
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING COPIOUS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SOME
HIGH-BASED AND MODEST CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. AS FAR AS WINDS, THEY ARE GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AS THE THERMAL PACKING
INTENSIFIES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BASIN
AND RANGE. WINDS ON LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE ARE SLOW TO PICK
UP, BUT THEY SHOULD DO SO SHORTLY AS GRADIENTS INCREASE AND
ENCOURAGE MIXING.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING, THE HRRR AND NAM STILL
SHOW MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF RENO. THIS MAKES SENSE AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK CONTINUE TO WORK ON
COOLING AND DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY ANEMIC, SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 60-70 DEGREES SO ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (OR VIRGA) COULD EASILY DROP WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD DROP WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF THEY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY TO BE MEASURABLE GIVEN THE WEAK CONVECTION AND VERY DRY
LOWER LEVELS.
MONDAY, THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH MODERATE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS GOING AS THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
FOR PYRAMID LAKE ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH (AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE
NORTH) WITH NO UPPER FORCING OF NOTE AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY
ALOFT TRAPPED OVER OREGON.
TUESDAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT DECREASES AND THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK BRUSH-BY
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND CUTTING OFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV BY FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CLOSED LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PROVIDES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE DUE TO HURRICANE ANDRES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
PUSH UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM
ANDRES NEXT WEEKEND AND BRINGING IT UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WE
ARE NOT FOLLOWING THIS FORECAST FOR NOW AND KEEPING WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE GFS MODEL IS NOTORIOUS FOR NOT FORECASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WELL. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
ALSO LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
SUIT. HOON
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/NV WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OVER 50KTS. CHANCES OF TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND
EAST REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ071-072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
159 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH OREGON TODAY. MIX OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE DIVIDE. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT MAINLY MAGIC VALLEY SPREADING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL MTNS AS SFC LOW ADVECTS NORTH INTO EAST IDAHO.
HRRR/RAP FURTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW THAN GFS/NAM. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF LOW SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER AND HAVE NUDGED
FORECAST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS REGION. SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH
EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AXIS. FOCUS SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL MTNS AND THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DIVIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING. SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE PUSHED POPS HIGHER IN THIS REGION WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM/GFS. COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY BUT STILL UNSETTLED. BOTH NAM/GFS SWING BROAD AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL MTNS INTO DIVIDE REGION TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE FAVORS GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SNAKE PLAIN WITH NAM MUCH STRONGER THAN GFS IN RESULTING WINDS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
BETTER CONSENSUS FROM MODELS. DMH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS COMING IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS BEGIN TAPPING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANDRES AND ADVANCING IT INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY. KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WENT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.
HINSBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ADVANCING INTO IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS/THUNDER
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
DESPITE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAST NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BLANKET CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION AT AROUND 900MB. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE SLIM.
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH SOME DRYING/MIXING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 15Z/10AM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG A
KRFD TO KOTM LINE...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS ARE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SO CLEARING LINE IS NOT MAKING ANY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE KILX CWA AT THIS TIME. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TODAY. AM
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA
AROUND GALESBURG. FURTHER EAST...HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHERE CURRENT OBS SHOW CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND
REDUCED VISBYS. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S DUE TO SOME LATE DAY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST
OBS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCMI WHERE IFR
LINGERS. NAM/RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 2500FT THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10KT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COMPLEX AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT BOTH JET AND MID LEVELS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE ALL ABOUT THE
SAME WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THAT
INVOLVES MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CAP INITIALLY IS WEAKEST IN THE FAR WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN
ORDER IN EASTERN COLORADO EARLY ON. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PROBABLY SOME STRATUS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT AND RAISED LOWS A LITTLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT MOST OF THE DAY IS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP IS AT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND THE COOLEST EAST. SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS EARLY ON IN THE EAST THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
ANOTHER COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DUE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. FIRST ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION EARLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER/NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRST ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF WITH THE
SECOND WAVE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE ELEVATED CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AM A LITTLE LEARY AT THE LACK OF QPF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME AM GOING TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER COULD SEE
WHERE THIS COULD BE RAISED MORE.
WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY CUTS OFF A
SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AND STALLS IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT SO ABOUT ANYWHERE
COULD GET PRECIPITATION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY COOL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING AROUND. BUT THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THIS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AND
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF THE FLOW...THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT MEAN MUCH AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE DETAILS.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.
OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE
RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME
RATHER STRONG...WILL MOVE THROUGH.
GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. AIR MASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWS ABOVE
NORMAL. CONSIDERING THIS...LOOK TO HAVE BOUTS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. OF
NOTE...CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE
FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM COULD GET PULLED INTO THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DUE TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AS
A RESULT MADE NO CHANGES...EXCEPT SOME SMOOTHING TO CLEAN UP SOME OF
THE GRIDS...TO ANY THE GRIDS IN THE INIT SINCE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST...AND BY MONDAY MORNING SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF KMCK TERMINAL
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED NOT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION IN TAF AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LLJ. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO ADD
VCTS GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING FROM THE WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.
HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR FOUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.
MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST...AND BY MONDAY MORNING SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF KMCK TERMINAL
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED NOT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION IN TAF AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LLJ. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO ADD
VCTS GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING FROM THE WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED IN AND DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY KICKING OFF STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD
GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED...TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
GENERALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ALSO
SOME EXPANSION WEST AND NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOWS FROM
THE CURRENT STORMS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MORE SPARSE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A TEMPO WITH THE
STORMS AT THE LOZ SITE THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL THE SITES...THOUGH SJS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL OF A DIRECT HIT
FROM STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...AND LATER STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY.
HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VIS INTO THE MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR RANGE
FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME BR. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED
AND UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN GUSTS. THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED IN AND DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY KICKING OFF STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD
GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A
FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED...TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT
BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO
BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE
SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER
HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY
LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS
WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT
IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT
WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR
CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN
THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS.
LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES
SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE...
PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT
ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A
LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF
HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE.
STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS
THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE.
OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS IT NEARS EASTERN
KY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KSME AND KLOZ FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 18Z...MAKING IT TO KSJS CLOSER
TO 0Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
THE RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE GENERALLY
FROM THE SW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DESPITE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF TAF SITES ARE IMPACTED
BY ANY OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VIS COULD BE
TEMPORARILY LOWERED. SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS EVENING...KEEPING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL...MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT ONCE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z...BUT ULTIMATELY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT IMPACTS AND SEVERITY THE FOG WILL
HAVE AT EACH SITE.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
STATE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT VCSH IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
ISOLATED CELLS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY TODAY...REACHING FAR SE KY DURING PEAK HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. SOME
BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM...BUT
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LIKE YESTERDAY...DECENT MIXING
WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPS COOL AND WINDS
CEASE...THOUGH A FEW ISL SHOWERS/TSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNKNOWN...WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER ISSUANCE/S TO INCLUDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.
FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS
NEARING 15-18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXIT SE ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT TO
FILL AS IT SLIDES ACROSS N MN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE EDGING
A TROUGH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN. LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME. WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST. STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.
APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS REGION INTO TONIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINMKLE POSSIBLE FAR
WEST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
VFR DURING PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NITE...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
559 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Rain associated with an upper level disturbance and an inverted
surface trough should remain s-se of the taf sites. The persistent
stratus cloud deck will continue at the taf sites with the
current ceilings around 2000 feet lowering to around 1000 feet
later this evening or overnight. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise on Monday to around 2000-3000 feet Monday afternoon with some
breaks possible in UIN and COU by late afternoon. N-nely surface
winds will become nely later tonight with a surface ridge
extending from MN and WI south into northeast MO shifting only
slowly eastward.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower tonight to around
1000 feet, then rise to around 2000 feet Monday afternoon. There
may be some breaks in the cloud deck Monday evening. Nly surface
wind will veer around to a nely direction later tonight.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
A cool weather pattern will persist for the next few days with
below average temperatures. A slow-moving upper trof located
through the middle and upper MS River Valley along with a
expansive high pressure system centered in southeast Canada will
be the controlling weather features. The surface high will maintain
northeasterly low level flow through Monday which will keep extensive
stratus locked in across the area, slowly clearing across the
northern CWA during the day on Monday. The upper trof will also
make us keep a close eye on southern sections for any precipitation
threat. Thus far the precipitation has remained south of the CWA,
and overall the HRRR and other few deterministic models which have
had precip into our CWA have been too far north. The influence of
the surface high should lessen a bit on Tuesday with the upper
trof axis moving to the east and the general thought is there will
be lesser low clouds as well.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Newer model runs continue to show a pattern favorable for a warm-
up through the later part of the week, however the pattern has
greater thunderstorm potential as well. The southern stream upper
trof/low through the Gulf States will slowly progress east while
an upper trof deepens in the far western U.S. In the process an
upper ridge from the Plains will attempt to build into the area,
however the guidance is now suggesting weak impulses in the NW
flow on the east side of the ridge will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances along with and an east-west frontal boundary sagging into
the area late Friday-Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015
Expect MVFR ceilings throughout the rest of the afternoon with the
ceilings likely staying below 2000 feet at the St. Louis metro
airports. Ceilings may fall below 1000 feet after 04Z tonight at
the St. Louis metro airports and KCOU before lifting mid-late
Monday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings to now remain below 2000 feet
during the forecast period with ceilings falling to IFR late
tonight into late morning Monday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. SATELLITE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA WITH THE MAIN JET MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF NOW...ONLY ONE LIGHTING STRIKE ACROSS THE
STATE AND THAT IS WEST OF MISSOULA. QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT
IS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT VISIBLY NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WITH IT AS THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING IT AT THIS TIME. ALSO
NOTED...SATELLITE SHOWING GRAVITY WAVES OVER BIG HORN COUNTY EAST
OF THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS WHICH IS ALSO A SIGN OF STABILITY
ALOFT. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WHEATLAND...GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES.
THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING. STILL BELIEVE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES LOOK LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHIFTED EAST MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CAPES AND BEST SHEAR WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOCATION OF STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS MODELS PLACE IT
JUST EAST OF BILLINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A HIGH PROBABILITY.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY A 90
DEGREE READING AT THE HOTTER LOCATIONS. READINGS TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED
WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE JUNE WITH A DAILY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST...A GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY DROPS INTO
CENTRAL/SRN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HAVE MAINTAINED A GENERAL HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS AND OTHER PERIODS OF
ENHANCED STORM CHANCES TIMED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...TOO HARD TO TIME AND IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON ULTIMATE PATH OF UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W TO E THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO KSHR
WESTWARD TO KLVM LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH SHOWERS. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/086 056/075 050/073 052/071 051/072 053/071 051/073
44/T 63/T 33/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
LVM 051/083 051/071 046/068 046/069 047/068 049/068 047/068
47/T 65/T 44/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 43/T
HDN 056/089 056/080 051/075 052/074 051/075 053/074 050/075
33/T 63/T 22/T 44/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
MLS 058/090 060/078 053/075 054/073 053/076 055/074 051/073
13/T 63/T 32/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
4BQ 055/087 057/079 053/074 053/073 054/075 055/073 051/073
22/T 43/T 33/T 46/T 44/T 55/T 43/T
BHK 052/085 058/076 050/075 051/070 051/075 052/071 048/072
12/T 64/T 43/T 46/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
SHR 051/087 053/076 046/071 049/071 049/071 050/070 048/070
32/T 43/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 55/T 53/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
CUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASED THIS MORNING FOR A WHILE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THESE MOVE EAST.
HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
TODAY
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
S-CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS
REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE
LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT
COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY
WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW
MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID
WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY -SHRA
AT THIS POINT DUE TO AMOUNT OF COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED FFA FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES AS CELLS ARE TRAINING AND BACK-
BUILDING OVER THE POCONOES ALREADY. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALMOST 4KM
WITH CAPES IN THE 0-4 KM LAYER CLOSE TO 500 J/KG LEADING TO A VERY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN SET UP AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEE PREV DSCN
BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SFC BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THIS
IS OCCURRING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WORKS INTO WRN PA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THE SFC BNDRY WAS FROM NEAR ONEONTA SW TO LACEYVILLE
PA TO NRN SULLIVAN CO IN PA IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA. THE BNDRY
SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED UP IN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SOME
INSOLATION WAS LEADING TO BNDRY LYR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY IN DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY AND IN ALL OF
NE PA EXCEPT BRADFORD AND SUSQUEHANNA CO/S. THIS BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCV
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THE BNDRY WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD UNTIL THIS MCV PASSES BY THIS EVENING.
MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE
BNDRY WHICH SHUD BE FROM A DELHI NY-TUNKHANNOCK PA LINE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES PEAK BTWN 1500 AND
2500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS AS PER 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARND 21Z OR SO.
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CAPE
VALUES...LIFTING WITH THE MCV AND SHEAR PROFILES WHICH ARE
RUNNING 15 KNOTS 0-1 KM, AND 25-30 KNOTS BOTH 0-3 AND 0-6 KM
LAYERS. IN ADDTN...PWATS ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH NOT MUCH DRY AIR
IN THE SOUNDINGS IN NE PA. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL VIGOROUSNESS OF UPDRAFTS FROM THE
PROJECTED CAPE VALUES. PARCELS DON/T REACH 0C ON THE NAM AVP
SOUNDINGS UNTIL 4 KM AND THE 0-4 KM CAPE IS ARND 500 J/KG AT 21Z!!
THIS MEANS VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES IN ANY STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. SO
HAVE MENTIONED THREAT FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN HWO IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA. I CUD
SEE THE MAIN SHOW BEING S AND W OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUR
FORECAST AREA JUST GETTING BRUSHED ON THE SRN FRINGE. SO WILL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...SPC AND WPC HEAVY RAIN DSCNS AND
OTHER WFO/S INPUT BEFORE HOISTING ANY FFA/S.
FARTHER NORTH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH SHOWATER
INDICES AS LOW AS -2C OR SO INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING AS
HEAVY RAIN FARTHER NORTH FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AREAS FARTHER N
STILL CUD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING SO CONT TO MENTION POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN HWO.
AS FOR TIMING...LATEST NAM DOESN/T HAVE ANY PRECIP IN NE PA UNTIL
CLSR TO 00Z. I BELIEVE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS MCV IN WRN PA THAT ACVTY WILL FIRE BTWN 18Z AND 21Z IN CNTRL
AND ERN PA WITH SCTRD TO NUMEROUS SHRA WORKING ACRS C NY AT THIS
TIME...CLSR TO THE LATEST HRRR RADAR TRENDS. THIS FIRST ACVTY ESP
IN NE PA WILL HAVE THE MOST CAPE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR. THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EASTWARD REACHING
NE PA/C NY CLSR TO 00Z-03Z. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
THIS WAVE AND NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP WELL ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. SO HAVE USED THE HRRR MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF THIS FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP AND THE NAM AFTER 00Z. THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITION
LIKELY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CAPES WILL BE LESS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LEADING TO SLOWING MOVING MBE VECTORS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS SRN PA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE MORE BROAD SCALE RAINS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BNDRY CONTS TO BE PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW AND SLOW TO MVE OUT OF
THE AREA. TROF OVER THE MIDWEST REMAINS IN PLACE HELPING TO FIRE
CONV AND STREAM DEEP MOISTURE NEWRD. ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET MVES LTL THRU THE SHRT TERM SO FOCUS OF DVLPG PCPN CONTS OVER
OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. RAIN SHD INTENSIFY TNGT INTO EARLY MON OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AS STRONG WV PASSES THRU...MEANWHILE
CONV CONTS OVER THE SRN HALF.
WV AND INV SFC TROF WILL PASS BEFORE NOON MON BRINGING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE RAIN...ESP OVER THE NRN ZONES. HWVR...WHILE THE SFC BNDRY
IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL BE CLOSE ENUF FOR CONT CONV.
YET ANOTHER WV APRCHS EARLY TUE AND FIRE MOR PCPN...ESP EAST OF
I81 WITH MORE CONV PCPN OVER NEPA. HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
FNLY BRING SOME DRIER WX LTR TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
I WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY WED/THUR, WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
INCREASING FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA LINE SOUTH. THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS
DOES NOT PUSH OUR EARLY WEEK BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH. THE RESULT
WOULD BE THIS BOUNDARY SNEAKING BACK NORTH AS EARLY AS THURSDAY,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE 0Z AND
12Z EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH, AND KEEPS US DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WPC
GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE WITH SHOWERS BY FRIDAY BUT ONLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OFF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP. A WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS ASCENDING THIS SHALLOW FRNTL BNDRY
SO THERE WAS MAINLY IFR IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP WHICH IS
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. AS A SFC LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SRN PA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MORE RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU 12Z. AT KAVP PROJECT FRONT TO PASS THRU BY ARND 06Z AND HENCE
HAVE INTRODUCED IFR AT THIS POINT. KITH...KBGM LIKELY WILL BE LIFR
TO VLIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVP WHICH WILL RANGE
FROM LIGHT WRLY AND SRLY UNTIL FROPA OF WHICH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NRLY.
.OUTLOOK...
MON PM...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO PERSIST...AS
SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...EPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.
WED...VFR LIKELY.
THU-FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1259 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED FFA FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES AS CELLS ARE TRAINING AND BACK-
BUILDING OVER THE POCONOES ALREADY. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALMOST 4KM
WITH CAPES IN THE 0-4 KM LAYER CLOSE TO 500 J/KG LEADING TO A VERY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN SET UP AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEE PREV DSCN
BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SFC BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THIS
IS OCCURRING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WORKS INTO WRN PA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THE SFC BNDRY WAS FROM NEAR ONEONTA SW TO LACEYVILLE
PA TO NRN SULLIVAN CO IN PA IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA. THE BNDRY
SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED UP IN ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SOME
INSOLATION WAS LEADING TO BNDRY LYR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SOUTH OF THE BNDRY IN DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY AND IN ALL OF
NE PA EXCEPT BRADFORD AND SUSQUEHANNA CO/S. THIS BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCV
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THE BNDRY WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD UNTIL THIS MCV PASSES BY THIS EVENING.
MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE
BNDRY WHICH SHUD BE FROM A DELHI NY-TUNKHANNOCK PA LINE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES PEAK BTWN 1500 AND
2500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS AS PER 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARND 21Z OR SO.
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CAPE
VALUES...LIFTING WITH THE MCV AND SHEAR PROFILES WHICH ARE
RUNNING 15 KNOTS 0-1 KM, AND 25-30 KNOTS BOTH 0-3 AND 0-6 KM
LAYERS. IN ADDTN...PWATS ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH NOT MUCH DRY AIR
IN THE SOUNDINGS IN NE PA. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL VIGOROUSNESS OF UPDRAFTS FROM THE
PROJECTED CAPE VALUES. PARCELS DON/T REACH 0C ON THE NAM AVP
SOUNDINGS UNTIL 4 KM AND THE 0-4 KM CAPE IS ARND 500 J/KG AT 21Z!!
THIS MEANS VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES IN ANY STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. SO
HAVE MENTIONED THREAT FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN HWO IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA. I CUD
SEE THE MAIN SHOW BEING S AND W OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUR
FORECAST AREA JUST GETTING BRUSHED ON THE SRN FRINGE. SO WILL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...SPC AND WPC HEAVY RAIN DSCNS AND
OTHER WFO/S INPUT BEFORE HOISTING ANY FFA/S.
FARTHER NORTH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH SHOWATER
INDICES AS LOW AS -2C OR SO INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING AS
HEAVY RAIN FARTHER NORTH FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AREAS FARTHER N
STILL CUD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING SO CONT TO MENTION POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN HWO.
AS FOR TIMING...LATEST NAM DOESN/T HAVE ANY PRECIP IN NE PA UNTIL
CLSR TO 00Z. I BELIEVE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS MCV IN WRN PA THAT ACVTY WILL FIRE BTWN 18Z AND 21Z IN CNTRL
AND ERN PA WITH SCTRD TO NUMEROUS SHRA WORKING ACRS C NY AT THIS
TIME...CLSR TO THE LATEST HRRR RADAR TRENDS. THIS FIRST ACVTY ESP
IN NE PA WILL HAVE THE MOST CAPE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR. THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EASTWARD REACHING
NE PA/C NY CLSR TO 00Z-03Z. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
THIS WAVE AND NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP WELL ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. SO HAVE USED THE HRRR MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF THIS FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP AND THE NAM AFTER 00Z. THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITION
LIKELY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CAPES WILL BE LESS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
LEADING TO SLOWING MOVING MBE VECTORS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS SRN PA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE MORE BROAD SCALE RAINS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BNDRY CONTS TO BE PARALLEL TO THE UPR FLOW AND SLOW TO MVE OUT OF
THE AREA. TROF OVER THE MIDWEST REMAINS IN PLACE HELPING TO FIRE
CONV AND STREAM DEEP MOISTURE NEWRD. ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET MVES LTL THRU THE SHRT TERM SO FOCUS OF DVLPG PCPN CONTS OVER
OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. RAIN SHD INTENSIFY TNGT INTO EARLY MON OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AS STRONG WV PASSES THRU...MEANWHILE
CONV CONTS OVER THE SRN HALF.
WV AND INV SFC TROF WILL PASS BEFORE NOON MON BRINGING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE RAIN...ESP OVER THE NRN ZONES. HWVR...WHILE THE SFC BNDRY
IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL BE CLOSE ENUF FOR CONT CONV.
YET ANOTHER WV APRCHS EARLY TUE AND FIRE MOR PCPN...ESP EAST OF
I81 WITH MORE CONV PCPN OVER NEPA. HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
FNLY BRING SOME DRIER WX LTR TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
I WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY WED/THUR, WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
INCREASING FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA LINE SOUTH. THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS
DOES NOT PUSH OUR EARLY WEEK BOUNDARY VERY FAR SOUTH. THE RESULT
WOULD BE THIS BOUNDARY SNEAKING BACK NORTH AS EARLY AS THURSDAY,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE 0Z AND
12Z EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH, AND KEEPS US DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WPC
GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE WITH SHOWERS BY FRIDAY BUT ONLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PREVAILS. ATTM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH
OF KBGM. THIS FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT... BUT SOON EXPECT THE FROPA TO PASS OVER KBGM. NORTH AND
WEST OF KBGM TAF SITES EITHER HAVE LOW END MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS... AND EXPECT KBGM TO SOON SEE IFR. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA AND
MAY DETERIORATE MORE AFTER SUNSET.
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH... KAVP WILL LIKELY
SEE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OVER KAVP AT 22Z... THEN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FROPA... AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO PERSIST...AS
SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...EPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.
WED AND THU...VFR LIKELY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
BETTER-THAN-USUAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THIS STRETCH. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HAVE SPLIT BY TUE WITH THE
POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING SRN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
CUTS OFF OVER THE TN VALLEY. AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
STAND TO SEE THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL DPVA
(ALBEIT WEAK BASED ON THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW) AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
THROUGH EARLY TUE... BUT THIS WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE SPREADING
EAST WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD WOBBLE/DRIFT OF THE LOW THROUGH WED. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF NYC DOWN
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO AL EARLY TUE... WITH A WEAK LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NC... OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN. WE`LL BE WITHIN THE THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE TUE WITH
WEAK FLOW AND PW OVER 150% OF NORMAL... BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGE... STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STUBBORN WRN ATLANTIC MID LEVEL RIDGE. SREF PLACES A 70-90+% OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TAPERING TO LESS THAN
50% IN THE EXTREME EAST ON TUE. GFE MUCAPE FORECASTS ARE FOR 500-
1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC (BIT HIGH ON THE NAM) BUT WITH
JUST 10-15 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THESE INDICATORS...
WILL HAVE 70% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
EVENING IN THE WRN CWA TAPERING TO 40-50% EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT BUT IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST GIVEN THE LINGERING MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. MODELS FAVOR DIPPING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NRN AND NW NC EARLY WED... PUSHED BY A COOLER SURFACE HIGH CROSSING
THE NORTHEAST STATES AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD... AS INVERTED TROUGHING
BECOMES MORE DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW... 50-60% POPS WED ARE WARRANTED. ONCE AGAIN...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BUT NOT END OVERNIGHT.
WET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THU AS THE LOW STARTS TO OPEN AND
TRACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL TO MODERATE DAYTIME MUCAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL STAY WEAK BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO AROUND 20 KTS. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH GENERATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF AREAWIDE WITH ATLANTIC-
SOURCE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS (50-60%) THROUGH THU.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRI INTO SUN. THE WEAK BAGGY MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION FRI... BUT THE GFS
THEN DROPS ENERGY BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...
CULMINATING IN ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD BY SUN. THE
ECMWF IN CONTRAST MAINTAINS A VERY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH ONLY VERY WEAK DPVA. BOTH HAVE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING
HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWERING PW
VALUES. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD LOWER COVERAGE WITH MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI-SUN.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP BALANCING THE
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL READINGS WED... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
BACKDOOR FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH
FRONTOLYSIS AND A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS FIRING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THREATENING BOTH KINT AND KGSO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE EAST REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FOR NOW SO ALL OTHER SITES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN THE
TRIAD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE THAN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD GO SUB-VFR AS EARLY
AS 9Z AND EXTEND TO 15Z OR BEYOND IN THE TRIAD. OTHER SITES COULD
SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER.
LONG TERM: FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND AS A RESULT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP DRIVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
MOST LIKELY MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST FROM WELL NE OF BERMUDA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CONTINUING THIS EARLY
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IN A
MORE ISOLATED FASHION THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO EVEN DRIER
AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND A CLEARLY
EVIDENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THIS IS PUTTING A LID ON
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND HAVE CONTINUED ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH NIGHTFALL WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT
THEREAFTER. THIS IS ECHOED BY THE AVAILABLE HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL
WRF GUIDANCE...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SW...ESPECIALLY INLAND...LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...ENOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
HELP MINS STAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...BUT BELIEVE THE SETUP IS BETTER FOR WARMER LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT AND HAVE BLENDED THE VERY-CLOSE MAV/MET NUMBERS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED THANKS TO MINS REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE SLUGGISHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER ATLANTIC RIDGE IS VERY RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP
GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE SE AND
S...AND IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TO OUR N AND NW WED MORNING. THE
NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR WEST DO NOT CLIP THE AREA AS THE LOW APPEARS TO GET
CUTOFF TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE MAY BEGIN TO GET BRUSHED
BY SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...VERY MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NO LONGER SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TAP BLEEDS FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR MON...BELOW
THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE...TO SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS A
BBP TO FLO LINE AND WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE HERE. TUE...WILL DOUBLE
POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO CHANCE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS ROUND 90
MON AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SEABREEZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND
APPEARS TO MAKE A MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND FIND A HOME
OFF THE COAST THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE...LIKELY POPS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING WEAKENS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES
STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARMUP A FEW DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IT WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE SE AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY
INLAND...BUT WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC PUSH AND JUST HEATING TO DRIVE IT DO
NOT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY NEAR KILM...BUT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT OR TOO FAR INLAND
TO MENTION IN COASTAL TAFS.
VFR...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR VSBYS AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP
COASTAL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT VFR...WITH VFR LEVEL LOW CIGS...MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS AS IT RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL SHORT OF THE
OBSERVED SWELL PERIOD THIS AFTN...AND WAVES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD
FROM SWAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FT...BUT HAVE
SEEN SOME 5 FTERS AS CLOSE AS FRYING PAN SHOALS. WITH GUIDANCE
UNRELIABLE...HAVE OPTED TO BASICALLY KEEP WAVES CONSTANT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE. THIS KEEPS
SEAS AT 2-4 FT...WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM PREDOMINANTLY SWELL-DRIVEN
THANKS TO SE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SEAWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS WED MORNING. THE FLOW THIS
PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE AND S MON AND THEN S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY ABATING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HAS
BEEN UNDER-FORECASTING THE 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL IN THE
NEAR TERM. WILL SHOW SEAS SUBSIDING ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH THE DAY
MON...BUT AT A SLOWER PACE GIVEN THE SWELL WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER
TO DECAY THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT MON...2 TO
3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
VIA THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. A VERY GRADUAL SHIFT TO
EAST THEN NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO THE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS OR SO.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE MOSTLY 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
FEW FOUR FOOTERS SNEAKING IN THE ZONES FRIDAY VIA A MORE ROBUST
SWELL COMPONENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
NOT AS MANY AREAS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY AS ALL
BUT KINT ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
MODELS SHOW EARLIER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BEING PUSHED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT A
FEW FACTORS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AND LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT VERY INTENSE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A MOISTURE GAP AT 700 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT
SHOULD BE ADVECTING THIS WAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND RAP SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY OF ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES COULD BECOME A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING THAT LOW STRATUS COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY. HAVE REFLECTED THIS BY STARTING MONDAY MORNING OUT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NW IN THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
SCENARIO OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
S/W EXTENDING ACROSS VA. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET HELPING TO USHER THE S/W OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE) AND IMPROVING SUPPORT ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT ALL THAT
ALARMING AS BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MAIN CONCERN WITH BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MONDAY UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN EARLY MORNING STRATUS BREAKS...ALLOWING FOR
PARTIAL SUN BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW-MID
80S APPEARS ON TARGET. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WETTER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MAINLY TIED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY. THIS SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF VERY
MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AIR
MASS COUPLED WITH A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE TIME
FRAME WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. BASED ON UPPER
SUPPORT...POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THE THREE DAYS TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE REGION TO START THE DAY. PLAN TO HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER WITH TIME. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO
RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS MODEL GUIDANCE
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN
GULF.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY FUNNEL ENOUGH COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES OUT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RECOVER
BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS FIRING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THREATENING BOTH KINT AND KGSO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE EAST REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FOR NOW SO ALL OTHER SITES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN THE
TRIAD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE THAN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD GO SUB-VFR AS EARLY
AS 9Z AND EXTEND TO 15Z OR BEYOND IN THE TRIAD. OTHER SITES COULD
SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER.
LONG TERM: FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND AS A RESULT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP DRIVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE WOULD MAKE A DECENT FORECAST TODAY
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS RIDGING BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS LOCALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH
AROUND 90 WELL INLAND...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT
AT THE BEACHES. THIS WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
SPC HAD A MRGL RISK FOR THEIR SWODY1 RIGHT UP TO THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...BUT HAVE SINCE PULLED THAT BACK CONSIDERABLY. THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AS ONCE AGAIN DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL LID SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY. IN FACT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS REDUCED POP TO MAINTAIN
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF...DEVELOPS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY...BUT THIS STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE AND EVEN MOVE WEST...SO
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR...IF NOT A LITTLE
LESS...THAN YESTERDAY. PWATS ARE ONLY ABOUT 1.25 INCHES TODAY...SO
MANY COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY...AND ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY
AFTER DARK.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT...AND
LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL WX GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
EAST AS A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUES EVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST...LEAVING SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH TO CUT
OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MON INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT AND POSSIBLY HUNG UP NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...FINALLY REACHING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY WED
MORNING AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION TO SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT IS CLOSER TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. THEREFORE MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN INLAND AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND
CONVERGENCE AROUND HIGH. BY LATE TUES RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST WITH INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BRUNT OF
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WEATHER REMAINING FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH.
AS WE LOSE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AS RIDGE SLIPS EAST
THROUGH LATE TUES ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER HEIGHTS. WARM BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO
70. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MID 80S MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 90
INLAND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUES AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BIT LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRETCHED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WED MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WEAKEN MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE BUT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FEEDING MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER END DEWPOINT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IT WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE SE AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY
INLAND...BUT WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC PUSH AND JUST HEATING TO DRIVE IT DO
NOT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
...MAINLY NEAR KILM...BUT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT OR TOO FAR
INLAND TO MENTION IN COASTAL TAFS.
VFR...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR VSBYS AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP
COASTAL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT VFR...WITH VFR LEVEL LOW CIGS...MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM AN
EXPANSIVE CENTER NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AT THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE EAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE OR FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SE IS POSSIBLE. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM TO REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED.
GUIDANCE IS UNDER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL...AS THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING
3-4 FT AT 11 SEC...A FULL 2 SEC LONGER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL
KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT TODAY...HIGHEST NEAR THE 20 NM
BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY
MAKE IT SOUTH REACHING THE WATERS MID WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
WINDS INITIALLY BUT WILL SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WIND WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS
MOST OF THE TIME WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY
DAMPENING OUT THROUGH TUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SOUTH
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY REACH THE WATERS BY THURS. AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EAST-SE BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP S-SE WINDS LESS THEN 10 KTS AND MAY SEE A GREATER SHIFT
TO E-NE IF FRONT DOES MAKE IT SOUTH BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS
3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK LATE THURS IN
INCREASING ON SHORE E TO NE FLOW IF FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP DURING THE WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE AREA ORIENTED N-S CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THIS AS WELL.
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND IT. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR START DRYING THE AREA OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RH FIELDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALSO STILL DRY SLOT
THE AREA BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE
PULLED POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASED
POPS OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER.
PREV DISCUSSION->
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVEL
INTO OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70...THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION ARE MOST
PREVALENT. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD SEE ONLY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A REGIME OF WEAKER FORCING BUT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY.
A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER SHALLOW CONVECTION AND WEAK WIND FIELDS.
COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOUT A HALF
AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH GENEROUS
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGH CAPACITY OF SOILS AND STREAMS
RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBILITY NORTH OF I-70 IN HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION...WITH
HIGH RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHILE CLOUDS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. FOR TUESDAY...THE
HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND ALL LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY ROBUST NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH UP TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MODERATION TO THE LOW TO MID
70S IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO TRANSITION TO IFR FOR OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT HAS ALLOWED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS TO
FORM. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT HAS FORMED AS A DRY
SLOT FROM 500 TO 700 MB HAS FORMED (AS SEEN ON SDF AMDAR
SOUNDING). GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY TIGHT.
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR
CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN CIGS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES. THE SREF SHOWS IFR STAYING FURTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THAT KCVG HAS ALREADY GONE IFR HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS.
MONDAY DURING THE DAY EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS MVFR AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
255 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INLAND ON MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY.
COOLER...CLOUDIER AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD RISE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES DUE TO A CAP. HOWEVER...THIS CAP
HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WITH THE FIRST FEW
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR MCKENZIE PASS PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO POP OVER
THE SISKIYOUS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN RATHER PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO
THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS
THAT DO GET GOING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. SUSPECT THESE WILL LARGELY
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FAR EASTERN LANE...
LINN AND MARION COUNTIES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING ONE CLIP
THE REGION.
THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORT MAX DRIVING CONVECTION OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN 700-
500MB THETAE LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TRAVERSING THE REGION...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND EVEN ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO
TO ZERO FOR THE COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MEANWHILE SSEO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHTNING IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL WITH FORECASTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION...UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH SHOULD SPREAD PLENTY OF MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN...THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST...PERIODS OF MORNING
CLOUDS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
/NEUMAN
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIF COAST WILL LIFT NORTH...BRINGING AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 04Z MON.
STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS REACH FURTHER NORTH
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
10000 FT BY 00Z MON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE TERMINAL AND
VICINITY AFTER 02Z...BUT ONLY A 20 PCT CHANCE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z MON MORNING. /27
&&
.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECT A SOUTH SURGE STARTING OVER THE SRN WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THEN PUSHING N...WITH WINDS STAYING AROUND 10-15 KT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTH WIND OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. COULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
WATERS.
SEAS TO REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SPECTRAL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEVERAL 2 OR 3 FT SWELL SETS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANY OF WHICH COULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SHOULD START TO
SEE MORE FRESH SWELL LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE STRONGER NLY WIND.
WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTERIN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE
TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW
MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR
THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 21Z TAFS SENT.
WIND GUST TO 48 KNOTS AT MDT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTERIN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE
TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW
MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR
THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO
DUBOIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO. AIRMASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RAP MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000J. THE BEST
SHEAR IS INDICATED ALONG A NARROW ZONE CORRESPONDING WITH THE
FRONT THAT HAS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
ALONG THE NY BORDER ONLY AROUND 50...AND TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AREAS
80 OR HIGHER.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE FOR DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCAL HELICITY TO SPAWN
A TORNADO...BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
MODELS WANT A SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE SLOWLY THROUGH SRN PA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
LOW.
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG
THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH
SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL PA WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL
CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A
SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME
STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER
AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY WEDGE FROM 5000-8000 FT AGL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOWING A COMPACT WAVE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR...AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN TREKKING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH EVEN A STRAY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING INDICATION...BUT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHING EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT TRENDS
SHOWN IN HRRR AND RAP WILL CAPTURE THE FLAVOR OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST...IN THAT INITIALLY TOGETHER SYSTEM IN TERMS OF FRONTAL AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL BECOME DISJOINTED AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CLIPS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...AND LIFT FORCING BECOMES MORE ONE DIMENSIONAL IN
TERMS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES EAST
AND SLOWS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA VERY LATE
MORNING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...STRUGGLES TO MOVE EASTWARD AS
UPPER WAVE OUTRUNS THE MID LEVEL LIFT FOCUS...AND SEE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AREA.
VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR EAST FROM ANY
LEVEL...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CLEAR OF THUNDER MENTION.
HOWEVER...BY LATER NIGHT...LINGERING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE JAMES
VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRATUS ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE I29 CORRIDOR...BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MASKED BY INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
UPSTREAM WAVE. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...AND EVEN A SCATTERED
NATURE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE A BIT
TO REACH POTENTIAL MOST AREAS...MEANING 60S FOR MOST. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECASTS...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTING
WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INCREASING EML AND A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE OTHER NOTICABLE THING WILL BE SHARP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RATHER GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SFC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (15-30 KTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS WEST OF THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DRIVEN NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING 700:500 MB WESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
LLJ...BUT THE TRACK WOULD BE VERY QUESTIONABLE. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A RATHER WARM EML AOA 12C AT 700 MB TUESDAY EVENING AT
CHAMBERLAIN.
REMNANT CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS ON SVR CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVE. BEST FOCUS FOR LATE DAY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT SVR
RISK GIVEN POOR SHEAR...BUT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN
ELEVATED RISK AT MINIMUM. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DRASTIC
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING THE MID/UPR 60S
GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AND REALLY DIFFICULT TO TAKE ANY MODEL AT FACE
VALUE GIVEN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. APPEARS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
HAVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CHANCES AND A MARGINAL SVR WX RISK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS MODEST. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH UP
IN THE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXIST MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES...AT LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM AROUND 70 AT THE COAST TO AROUND 60
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE SKY IS GENERALLY CLEAR. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME ENHANCED COVERGENCE AT THE COAST FROM
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP BROKEN CEILING THERE...WITH CLEAR
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
STORM THERE BUT MAINLY DRY AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED CU
NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT THE USUAL SPOTS...MAINLY LBX AND CXO...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER IS LOOKING UP...PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD. COLD FRONT GETTING DIFFUSE BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART IN THE NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH (BEHIND
THE FRONT). SO EXPECT TO SEE A PLEASANT DAY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRYING OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS HEADED TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR FROM CLEVELAND TO EDNA WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING AND 30S ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PW NEAR THE COAST CURRENTLY 1.4-1.6" PER GPS
IPWV WHILE BASTROP IS DOWN TO 1". EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO
STRUGGLE TO FIGHT INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER OF THE LL ATMOSPHERE BUT LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND REMAINING
MOISTURE (AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MB) WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AFTER REACHING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 82. STORMS SHOULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE
COAST IF THEY FORM. BY EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD END AND A
PLEASANT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DRY EVENING ON TAP. RESPITE FROM THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AT 1130Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT KIAH
SOUTH TO KGLS...AND ENDING THE CHANCE AROUND 13Z AT KIAH AND 17Z
AT KGLS.
THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THOUGHT THAT BOTH MODELS WERE OVERDOING
THE RAIN CHANCES WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE RAP AND ARW/NMM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD. BECAUSE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN VFR
CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH AND REACH THE COAST AROUND 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH
POPS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FEEL THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
RATHER VIGOROUSLY SO ANY RESIDUAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY SO THE AIR SHOULD HEAT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHICH RECEIVED LESS RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN AND WET GROUND WILL
NEGATE SOME OF THE HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN
EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW...ITS A PATTERN THAT HAS IN THE PAST
BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM 12 IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SE TX ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS PW VALUES NEAR 1.70
INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92 DEGREES.
PREFER TO PLAY IT SAFE SO WILL ADD 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS THE SEA
BREEZE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
SHOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 43
CLIMATE...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY
HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL
EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT
RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS RAIN). 43
MARINE...
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY RANGED FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH TIDES IN THE BAYS AND INLETS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE
TO THE VOLUME OF WATER MOVING THROUGH THE BAYOU AND RIVER SYSTEMS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 64 85 66 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 87 67 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 73 84 74 85 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99