Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/29/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

902 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24 HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT SAID...
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING...THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
GENTLE SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENTLE SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

507 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL LATE
MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN SOME AREAS IT
HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM THE WEST HAS
SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NORTH TO
SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER BURN-OFF TODAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST READINGS FOR
THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL ONLY
SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO SUMMER -- UPPER
50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING
OFFSHORE MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
SAN BRUNO GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT
SAID... STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING... THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

403 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HRRR ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EARLIER HRRR ALSO INDICATED
POTENTIAL FOR SCT DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT
OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD SE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL
INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
THURSDAY.

ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AFTER
20Z AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. THUNDER WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 19-20Z. STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY IMPACTS THE AIRPORT AFTER SUNSET.

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DO NOT THINK SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25 KT TO NY HARBOR OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA
THERE. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AT OR JUST OVER 20 KT IN THOSE AREAS.
NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT
TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD
EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NYS
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF 125 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...AND IN FACT SHOW
SOMEWHAT OF A MIDLEVEL CAP/WARM LAYER. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD BE HINTING AT A
LITTLE LESS SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS...EVEN PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S...SOME UPPER 80S. FORECASTED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SUPPORT CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF THUDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE.

SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY PULSE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
LINE/BROKEN LINE AND ELEVATED CORES DROP DOWN AS ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS...AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS LAG
FAR TO THE WEST...AND CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SOME MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
MARGINAL SEVERE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. ALSO A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

MORE BIG PICTURE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON
THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

652 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1022 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN ADD
DETAIL TO WIND GRIDS FOR LAKE BREEZE LOCATION PER METAR/RADAR OBS.
18Z NAM AND RECENT RAP/HRRR HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA/CHICAGO METRO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK PER 00Z RAOB AND RAP
ANALYSIS OTHER THAN SURFACE WARM FRONT PROPAGATING NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SFC/NEAR SFC BASED SHRA/TSRA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WERE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STILL APPEARS THAT THE
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP STILL APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS OVER MO/IA/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IL...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IL...AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MO/AR
PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY. GOING FORECAST HAS POPS INCREASING MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA 09-12Z...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY/AFTER
12Z...AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT DATA.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY FRONTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A LAKE
BREEZE WITH LAKESIDE COOLING AT THE CHICAGO SHORE ABOUT 14
DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AT ORD/MDW AS OF 200 PM. THE FRONT OF
INTEREST FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BRINGING A RETURN TO MUGGY AIR
BY DAYBREAK...AS WELL AS KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES MILD...EVEN
INCREASING THEM LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS.

MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...SOME LIKELY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THESE JUST NORTH OF KANSAS
CITY AS OF 200 PM IS WELL ANALYZED BY THE LATEST RAP AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO
WEAKER IMPULSES TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH A 25-30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THESE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT THAT
HEIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN...DUE TO HOW
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE OVERNIGHT STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DURING
FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW...AND HAVE THUS CAPPED POPS AT LIKELYS.
MORNING PRECIP AND EVEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. THIS WILL HELP WITH EARLY DESTABILIZATION WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION AND WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY RETURNING DURING THIS
TIME...THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF GOOD FOCUS AT THE SURFACE...THINK BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESIDE. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH HOW ORGANIZED ANY STORM WILL BE AND
ALTHOUGH I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. 80 DEGREE WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS LIKELY BEING LIMITED IN ANY AREA
THAT OBSERVES MORE PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.

STILL THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS VARYING WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
NIGHT WILL EVOLVE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LARGER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE
A SEPARATE TROUGH AND SEVERAL IMPULSES WORKS EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS. NONETHELESS...BEST LOW/MID LEVEL COVERAGE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING ALSO
INCREASES. SO DO THINK PRECIP WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA...BUT WITH
COVERAGE AND DURATION POSSIBLY LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDER
SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WHILE
WINDS/GUSTS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 40 DEGREE WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* -SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY.

A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OR TWO
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AROUND...OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A SECOND WEATHER
DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND MIDDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS THE DIRECTION WE HAVE GONE WITH THE LATEST TAFS...THOUGH
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A
SOURCE FOR FOG ALONG IT AND THIS HAS BEEN SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
AT TIMES DURING THURSDAY. EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT PREVALENT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND STEER
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...IT WILL DRIVE A STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR LATE MAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH WAVES ON SUNDAY.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

841 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* -SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* -SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH SHRA AND TSRA TIMING ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

236 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z RAOB ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER
TROUGH/MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN...WITH EVIDENCE
OF A SMALLER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
IA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD OF S/WV ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...WITH TRENDS
APPEARING TO BE FAIRLY WELL HANDLED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WEAK MUCAPE ACROSS NE MO/EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL...WITH SOME FAIRLY
PERSISTENT CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CELLS NORTH OF MACOMB. THUS
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS
MID-LEVEL WAVE(S) AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND SW WI WITH A VORT MAX OVER
IOWA. THE LOWS COLD FRONT REMAINS A BIT FURTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL IA
AND EASTERN KS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL WI AND ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE IS OVER I-39...BUT THINKING THAT CAPE IN REALITY IS AROUND
500 J/KG DUE TO LIMITED HEATING. CAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AS THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT THINKING IN
GENERAL THE BREAKS ARE MOVING TOO QUICKLY AND TOO FEW AND FAR BTWN
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH VALUES AROUND 35-40 KT.

THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS INDIANA
RIGHT NOW. A SECOND SKINNY LINE OF CONVECTION LIES FROM DIXON IL TO
JERSEYVILLE IL WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL CELLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. DUE TO
LIMITED CAPE AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SW AND HELICITY IS MUCH
LOWER SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AS I WAS THIS
MORNING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE AT 1.4-1.7 INCHES SO
ANY OF THE NEW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT WE ARE NOT DONE YET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS EVENING AS THE VORT MAX
APPROACHES. THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST ALONG AND WEST OF
GARY INDIANA TO PAXTON IL LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER AND
NO SEVERE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TONIGHT SO THINKING
WE WILL NOT COOL MUCH...SO KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY TOMORROW BUT NOT AS ACTIVE. A PAIR OF
VORT STREAMERS AND THE LOWS COLD FRONT ROTATE THROUGH AND SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THEM. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THIS VORT STREAMER WOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA...NORTH
OF I-88. PRECIP MAY SINK SOUTH ACROSS DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES IN
THE AFTN...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP WILL
GET.

CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS WEST OF I-
55 BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AS CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE. HAVE TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING SO EXPECTING LAKE COOLING ESPECIALLY AT WAUKEGAN.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
226 AM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY...
THUR CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY...WITH THE MID-LVL FLOW
REMAINING RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
EAST BY EARLY THUR MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE
EARLY THUR...UNFORTUNATELY THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW THIS
FEATURE TO LINGER. BY THUR AFTN SFC FLOW WILL BE TURNING
SOUTHERLY...AS THE MOIST CHANNEL POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE THUR NGT...AS A LOBE OF MID-LVL VORTICITY
PUSHES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SEND RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY LATE
THUR. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE
WESTERN CWFA BY LATE THUR NGT.

PRIOR TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP RETURNING...TEMPS SHUD EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRADIENT MAY BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR FAR NORTHEAST IL
PRIOR TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING IN THE AFTN HOURS. SO TEMPS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IF THE ONSHORE
FLOW IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING COUPLED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT HOW COOL TEMPS ARE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS POSSIBLY NUDGING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO HOLD ACROSS ALASKA...WITH A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPER SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A ROBUST MID-LVL
VORT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRI AND CLIPPING THE UPPER
MIDWEST SAT. ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THIS FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A
SERIES OF SFC WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FRI. THEN A STOUT SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH FRI NGT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE LARGEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP FRI INTO SAT MORNING.
THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE EAST WITH WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH PRECIP SOUTH BY MIDDAY
SAT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS SAT MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND
THE UPR 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH ONLY LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO THE
PRIOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE WEEKEND
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO FEED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL KEEP MODERATE SWLY WINDS OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN IL IS GENERATING SCT SHOWERS...WHICH IN TURN...ARE
GENERATING SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WIND FIELD. AS THE SHOWERS PASS
EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT THE GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ARND 10KT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO ERN IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...BUT MAY SFC OBS INDICATE SCT LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR
LEVELS...SO THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE MVFR CIGS.

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST.
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAY POSSIBLY BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP INLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING...LET ALONE REACHING INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT
ORD/MDW. HOWEVER...SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...ONLY VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO...ANY
POTENTIAL SHRA COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
226 AM CDT

SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LINGERING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WEAK SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THE GRADIENT MAY
BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR
LIFTING NORTH OVER THE LAKE...SOME POCKETS OF FOG MAY PERSIST.
THEN WITH LESS WINDS EXPECTED THUR...AREAS OF FOG COULD RETURN.

SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THUR MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST THUR AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
AND POTENTIALLY VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THUR...THEN
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SOLIDIFY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE THUR
NGT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SAT
MORNING...THEN STEADILY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGING ARRIVES SAT EVENING...WHICH COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE THE FETCH AND QUICKLY BUILD
WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IL AND NORTHWEST IN SHORELINES AND LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1253 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOCAL AREA WILL START OUT FIRMLY UNDER MID/UPPER RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT
DESPITE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND FAIRLY EARLY. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS (ESPECIALLY IL SHORE) IN THE UPPER 60S.

CHANGES WILL START TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GETTING SHUNTED EAST AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE FOCUSED MID
CHANCE POPS INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
FORCING WILL LIFT NORTH AND REFOCUS INTO NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAILORED POPS AS SUCH...BUT THEN A STRONGER WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
LOWER IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER IMPACT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VERY MILD START TO DAY AND WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S...WARMEST
IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA. THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MODEST CAPE
VALUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME WET MICROBURSTS WITH PWAT
VALUES IN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF
MAY. HIGHS ON THE LAKEFRONT ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 50S ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ONLY 60S AND 70S INLAND ON SATURDAY AND
60S ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SO KEPT HIGHER
CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IF TRENDS ON MUCH OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EXPANSIVE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH TO EAST...THOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKEFRONT.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTH WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER QUEBEC
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH. WINDS WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...THEN A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...THOUGH WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT MIXING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADD AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES
SHOWN ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS EVENING...IN
THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER MUCAPES/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE STILL DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AS A STRONG VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IA. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA TOWARDS
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL. ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

702 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TONIGHT:

ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY. THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. BULK SHEAR IS WEAKER TODAY
AND IS VERY MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS (30 KT). UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAKER TOO FOR STORM TOP VENTILATION. LIKE THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AS
FAR AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS CONCERNED. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS DESCRIBED BY THE WRF. THE NET RESULT IS CONVECTION
WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THINK UPSCALE GROWTH
IN TO A LINE IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM. TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS LIKELY
TODAY AS SUPERCELLS LOOK LESS LIKELY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS
PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINE SHOULD LIMIT SOME TRAINING OF STORMS AS THE LINE HEADS EAST. STILL,
ANOTHER 1 TO 2" OF RAIN LOOK GOOD FOR SOME SPOTS. FARTHER EAST, THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL AS THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT. WET MICROBURSTS OF 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THERE NOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT, BUT
THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
AS SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 70,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MID 80S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S DUE TO ENHANCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ONLY ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE COULD VENTURE INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A SHARPER LEE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH,
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND GIANT HAIL ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK, THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. GIVEN THE LEE TROUGHING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 13Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 79 54 70 / 70 40 40 10
GCK 57 78 53 69 / 70 40 40 10
EHA 55 77 53 70 / 50 40 50 20
LBL 58 78 55 71 / 60 40 40 20
HYS 59 78 53 69 / 50 40 40 10
P28 63 80 58 71 / 50 40 50 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 61 80 61 / 50 60 60 70
GCK 82 59 81 58 / 50 60 40 50
EHA 85 58 80 56 / 40 40 30 30
LBL 85 60 81 60 / 40 50 40 50
HYS 80 61 79 60 / 50 60 60 70
P28 82 64 79 65 / 50 70 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR OUT STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 79 62 77 / 70 60 50 50
GCK 60 80 60 76 / 60 40 50 50
EHA 60 81 57 76 / 50 30 40 40
LBL 61 81 61 78 / 60 60 50 40
HYS 63 79 62 76 / 70 60 60 60
P28 64 79 64 77 / 70 60 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 82 63 79 / 10 60 60 60
GCK 55 81 61 80 / 20 50 60 40
EHA 54 81 61 81 / 50 30 50 30
LBL 57 82 62 81 / 20 50 60 60
HYS 56 81 64 79 / 10 50 70 60
P28 60 82 65 79 / 10 50 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AS EXPECTED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND
MIDDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AS A COOLER...DRIER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN INTACT TIL EXPIRATION.

THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTSOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF IT SURVIVED ALL THE
WAY TO OUR REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN THERE WITH
LESSER/NO POPS IN THE NORTH.

GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PUMPED UP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS AND A LACK OF ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTION GOING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO WILL KEEP
THE LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES POPS GOING.

WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY...FIGURE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. BUT...THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STREAM OVER
THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST
JUST TO BE SAFE. ELSEWHERE KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH MIDDLE 80S FORECAST...AND UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. NUDGED LOWS DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EACH
NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LINGER AWHILE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS OUT WEST PHASE AS THEY EVENTUALLY TRY TO MERGE OVER THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION. BY MIDWEEK...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING
ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM ENDS UP OVER OK/TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER OK/TX WILL QUICKLY SCOOT NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SO IT REALLY ENDS UP BYPASSING THE
AREA. SO AS FAR AS POPS ON FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE MERELY
BASED ON AIR MASS TYPE POP UPS. HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHER ON POPS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
JUST TO OUR WEST AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE ENTERING OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLIER...WILL BE PHASING WITH OTHER SUBTLE
WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW MODEL RUNS ARE
ADVERTISING A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN OUR
VICINITY. BUT I CAN ALSO FORESEE MODELS SETTLING DOWN A BIT WITH
THE BUSY UPPER FLOW AND WE COULD END UP DRIER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF
IS INDICATING).

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT THEN DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z-02Z, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RST
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 86 69 83 / 30 60 50 60
MLU 69 88 69 84 / 30 50 50 60
DEQ 67 82 67 80 / 40 60 50 60
TXK 69 84 68 82 / 30 60 50 60
ELD 67 86 69 82 / 30 50 50 60
TYR 72 83 69 82 / 40 60 50 60
GGG 72 85 69 83 / 40 60 50 60
LFK 71 86 70 86 / 40 60 50 60

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LEAVING
A FEW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVER THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ALTOCU AND CIRRUS
CANOPY DUE TO LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE POLAR JET WILL COMBINING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AEX AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT TNITE AT AEX...CLOSER TO
MORNING AT LCH, BPT, AND ARA. LOWERING POSSIBLY TO LIFR AT ARA DUE
TO THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS THERE.

SWEENEY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN MCS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY IT LEAVES BEHIND ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT 40-50% ACROSS THIS REGION AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO
KEEP 30-50% COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
IS SUBJECT TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DON`T REALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 85 70 86 70 / 100 20 50 20
LCH 84 73 85 73 / 100 20 40 20
LFT 85 71 86 71 / 100 20 50 20
BPT 84 74 85 74 / 100 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 85 70 86 70 / 100 20 50 20
LCH 84 73 85 73 / 100 20 40 20
LFT 85 71 86 71 / 100 20 50 20
BPT 84 74 85 74 / 100 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

DML

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 88 70 86 70 / 50 30 50 20
LCH 87 73 85 73 / 40 20 40 20
LFT 87 71 86 71 / 50 20 50 20
BPT 86 74 85 74 / 30 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING OUR 88D
VOID OF RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. STILL
EXPECT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.. THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY. NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER. A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF OUR
STATE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

417 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
NW WI COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER AREAS
WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRIGGERED SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM YQT TO DLH AND NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM LNL
TO IMT.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WI
BORDER. SOME SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER MAY ALSO SURVIVE INTO NW UPPER MI THIS EVENING BUT WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MLCAPE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE
SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...WITH COOLING BY LATE EVENING THE
REST OF THE PCPN WILL END.

WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES TO THE EAST SW
FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES.
EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 80F OVER THE WEST HALF
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOL/SCT TSRA OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 0-
6KM SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
ERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT CMX TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

140 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE IA LIFTING TO THE NE. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM NRN WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. WITH
MLCAPE/MUCPE FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG THE
STRONGER TSRA OVER NE WI HAVE DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY EMBEDDED ISOLD
TSRA WITH THE SHRA. AT THE SFC(19Z)...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SW CORNER OF WI WITH A TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
NE INTO WRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH ONLY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING AND ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE SOUTH BEHIND INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS...THE INSTABILITY MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE VORT CENTER GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE (0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS). OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...IN LINE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV.

WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL DEPART TO THE NE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLEARING AND AFTERNOON
HEATING (TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL PAST THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME...WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PLACEMENT ALONG
WITH COLD FRONT TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHILE
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-700 J/KG FROM THE
GFS TO AROUND 800-1100 J/KG FROM THE EC...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IF SKIES ARE
OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...HELPING TO
REDUCE THE SEVERE RISK. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 TO
40 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. THE RISK AGAIN WILL BE
CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE LAKES.
TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS
NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. CALM
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN CHANCES IS LOW. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
IN BUT DECIDED TO ADJUST THEM BACK TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES IN MIND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW PRES OVER NE WI WILL LIFT NNE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING OCNL SHRA TO THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHRA AND
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENSURE LIFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KSAW THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCMX WILL DROP TO LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS BECOME NWLY...WHICH IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PERIODS OF
VLIFR AS WELL DURING BREAKS IN THE PCPN. EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA EXIT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS TIME
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY SPARK SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME PCPN IN THE AREA THAN KCMX DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY BUILD UP IN THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MI. ONLY
INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON/TITUS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1253 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
COMPACT CIRCULATION ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WI. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS PUSHING
INTO EXTREME WESTERN MN...A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES IF ANY
CU AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED POPCORN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 750MB AND
THE MAX T FORECAST WAS BASED OFF A MIX DOWN FROM THIS LEVEL...AND IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN PART DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY MOISTENING THE SURFACE.

NORTHWESTERN WI STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
TODAY...STILL IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEPARTING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...EVALUATION OF SEVERAL HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA TODAY. THE HRRR IS THE MOST
CONCERNING AS EVERY NEW HOURLY RUN THAT HAS COME IN OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 80S
WILL BE REACHED AND SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE 700-300MB LAYER. I
DON/T FEEL CONFIDENT IN THUNDER ACTUALLY DEVELOPING GIVEN THE
RIDGE PUSHING IN...BUT GIVEN THAT THE
HRRR/ARW/NMM/MPXWRF/HOPWRF/NSSL WRF ALL ARE TRYING TO GENERATE
POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR JUST A FEW
HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

WE`LL QUICKLY GET BACK IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE
PRECIP WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FAR WESTERN MN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT
HEADS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED H7 LOW FORMING OVER EASTERN NE AND IA ON
FRIDAY. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LYING ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. IN ADDITION...RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS. THIS IS IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR MPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE END OF MAY. IN FACT...THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE IS 1.54 INCHES.
HENCE...LIKELY POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
TRANSITION EAST DURING THE NIGHT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH...WHEN THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
EAST AND SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HERE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAIN ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DIPS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE IDEA FROM THE GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD SPREAD THE ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING THE FA DRY. AT THIS POINT...ONLY LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM IS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY (70) AND
ANOTHER 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY (60). TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW
CLIMB WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR MONDAY...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

STILL SKC AROSS MOST OF MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE HIGH BASED CU DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELITE TRENDS AND THE TOTAL LACK
OF CU DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT...AND IF ANY WERE TO OCCUR THEY WOULD
BE ISOLATED...LEFT SHRA OR TSRA OUT OF ALL THE TAFS FOR NOW.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP AROUND 8KFT BY 20-21Z. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

550 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY BASED ON HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPE. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE IN
MN. IN WI HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE VCSH AS CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER THERE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
WESTERN MN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

KMSP...BEST PERIOD FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE FROM 20Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR ONCE THIS MORNING FOG LIFTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS WC WI...WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR VSBY IN WC WI BUT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARD ONLY LOW END MVFR
VSBY/HIGH END IFR VSBY FOR BOTH KEAU/KRNH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS STARTING FROM THE SW/WSW...THEN MORE
W/WNW WED MORNING/AFTN. SOME GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN EC MN/WC WI
DURING THE AFTN.

KMSP...

SOME MVFR VSBY THIS EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION
CONCERNS WITH WINDS SW TONIGHT...BECOMING W/WNW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 68 85 68 / 77 32 47 20
MERIDIAN 85 67 85 67 / 81 35 48 20
VICKSBURG 87 69 86 69 / 99 34 47 20
HATTIESBURG 86 69 87 69 / 80 35 53 20
NATCHEZ 87 69 85 70 / 99 36 51 20
GREENVILLE 86 69 85 70 / 99 33 42 20
GREENWOOD 85 69 85 69 / 72 32 46 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/CME/22/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

904 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Much of the shower/thunderstorm activity across central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL was gradually weakening
this evening as the atmosphere was becoming more stable. There was
an area of showers and a few storms across south central MO ahead
of a shortwave trough that will likely move into central MO later
this evening. Very little coverage of precipitation is expected
across our forecast area by midnight or shortly after. There may
be some development of showers/storms late tonight or early Friday
morning due to a modest southwesterly low level jet. This activity
would likely be across central or southeast MO. Low temperatures
tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night due to
plenty of mid-high level clouds along with at least weak south-
southeasterly winds.

GKS

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
early this evening ahead of 500-hPa shortwave trough with the best
coverage of storms across central Missouri. Combination of nocturnal
stabilization and subsidence behind aforementioned shortwave
should lead to weakening/dissipation of storms as well as a
corresponding drop in coverage late evening/early overnight. Late
tonight...sch/chc PoPs for showers/storms return to the area as
LLJ strengthens and veers from the SSW to the WSW late tonight. As
for temperatures...mild conditions are expected due to a partly to
mostly cloudy sky and a light southerly breeze. Expect lows
tonight in the mid to upper 60s areawide.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

(Friday-Saturday Night)

Another shortwave trough will eject out toward the mid-Mississippi Valley
during the day tomorrow...similar to today just a bit further to the
northwest. PoPs will be on the increase especially Friday afternoon
for portions of central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois
as synoptic cold front associated with northern stream energy slowly sags
southeastward into region. Continued likely PoPs for showers and storms
for Friday afternoon. As for chances of severe weather...appears any
widespread strong/severe storms will be difficult due to weak deep-layer
shear values...around 20 knots. However...isolated strong to severe storms
with large hail/damaging winds does look plausible due to moderately
strong instability (1000-2000 J/kg) values.

Cold front will continue its slow southeastward progression on
Friday night and Saturday. Highest probabilities for showers and
thunderstorms continues to hone in on this period. Timing of cold
front looks to clear CWA by mid/late Saturday morning. Like Friday
...deep-layer shear/instability parameters do not look supportive
of any widespread severe weather...but a strong to severe storm is
not out of the question. Behind the front...showers (along with
some possible embedded thunder) look likely as shortwave trough
slows down and upper-level jet streak backbuilds to the southwest
putting CWFA beneath the RER.

Temperatures on Saturday look to be challenging due to frontal
timing and associated precip chances. Leaned cool (highs in the
upepr 60s to low 70s) for areas well behind the front in central and
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where clouds are
expected to linger along with strong low-level CAA from the north.
For areas further to the south and east...did not deviate too much
from guidance with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees expected.

Tightened PoP gradient a bit on Saturday night with highest PoPs
remaining across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois in closer
proximity to cold front. Did remove some mention of thunder well
behind the front due to lack of instability. Surface high across
the Great Lakes will begin flexing its muscle with much cooler and
drier weather beginning to filter into from the north and east.
Forecast lows are expected to dip back below seasonal norms with
lows generally in the 50s expected.

(Sunday-Thursday)

A cutoff low is still expected to develop somewhere near the
bootheel of Missouri on Sunday. Confined PoPs to far southeastern
sections of the area which will be closer in distance to this
feature as well as remnant cold frontal boundary. Instability looks
meager at best so just mentioned isolated tunder for the far
southern and eastern counties. Lingering clouds with 850-hPa dipping
to near +10C should yield a chilly day for very late May. Highs only
in the mid to upper 60s are expected on Sunday.

Cutoff low is expected to meander slowly to the south/southwest
heading into the middle of next week. Precipitation chances look low
as region will likely be too far north of aforementioned cutoff low
and too far south of main corridor of cyclones transversing the
upper Midwest. Best chance of showers/storms at the moment appears
to be on Thursday with chance PoPs as GFS suggests a trough axis may
approach the area from the west. All in all...the extended portion
of the forecast Monday through Thursday appears to be mostly dry
with moderating temperatures back above normal by Thursday.

Gosselin

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 501 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Thunderstorms have fired primarily along a warm front lifting
across the area. This is in response to a shortwave which will
move across by 12z. Additional thunderstorm have formed across SW
MO in the warm air in advance of the wave. This activity will
likely impact COU this evening and potentially UIN closer to
Midnight. HRRR decreases this precipitation gradually overnight,
but does fire up some new stuff primarily across SE MO as the wave
moves across eastern MO. Possible given this area has not had any
rain so far. Activity drifts into SUS and CPS area about 08z. Am
not optimistic about this so will leave out for now but will
monitor development late this evening closely. Another wave which
looks weaker moves in Friday and this will help kick off
showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Timing difficult so some
VCTS will be the best forecast for now. Overall, TAFS will stay
VFR except briefly when storms move through.

Specifics for KSTL: Question is whether STL will stay dry
overnight. HRRR kills current rain that is over SW MO but forms
new stuff about 08z, most likely in response to the short wave
lifting across the area. Have doubts if the atmosphere will be
unstable enought to support this, so will leave out for now but
will watch closely late this evening. Thunderstorms will lilely
fire Friday afternoon in response to another, although weaker,
wave moving through. Timing no certain so a VCTS for a couple of
hours will suffice for now. More thunderstorms will be likely as
the cold front moves in overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning.

JPK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 84 69 78 / 30 60 50 70
Quincy 65 81 65 69 / 80 70 70 50
Columbia 66 79 65 71 / 90 70 70 50
Jefferson City 66 80 66 71 / 80 60 70 50
Salem 67 84 69 79 / 20 40 40 70
Farmington 65 80 68 77 / 20 50 50 60

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1235 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southeast through region
today. Initial activity over northern portions of forecast area to
exit before zone issuance. Next round firing up over southwestern MO
and moving east northeast towards forecast area. HRRR keeps activity
along and south of I-70 this morning before diminishing. So highest
pops will be over southern portions of forecast area. Otherwise,
warm conditions to persist with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak ridging to build in tonight with precipitation tapering off.
Did keep slights/low chance pops for southern portions of forecast
area, but for the most part forecast area should be dry overnight.
On Thursday, more vigorous shortwave to approach from the
southwest. Will see increasing pops with best chances over central
and southern Missouri during the day, then chances to increase
beginning Thursday night as deepening upper level trof over the
Rockies begins to slide towards region. Best chances will be
Friday through Saturday, before tapering off on Sunday.

Highs will be in the 80s for the rest of the work week with lows in
the 60s. Cooler air to filter in behind this system with highs only
in the upper 60s on Sunday, then warm back up into the upper 70s to
low 80s by next Tuesday.

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

VFR conditions expected into Thursday morning at all TAF sites.
Light west to northwest winds this afternoon will become variable
around sunset...then southeasterly Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings
near 3000 feet AGL will move into KCOU TAF site by around 15Z
Thursday...and reach the KSTL metro TAF sites by around 20Z.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions with light west winds this
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable overnight...then
southeasterly by around 15Z Thursday. Ceilings around 3000 feet
should approach the TAF site by 20Z Thursday.

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Recent radar trends are showing showers moving up toward KCPS and
just south of KSUS/KSTL. Went ahead and added TEMPO groups for
MVFR conditions in -SHRA through 14Z at KCPS, and added VCSH at
KSUS/KSTL. Expect this area of showers and thunderstorms to move
out of the area by mid morning leaving the rest of the TAF period
dry with VFR conditions. Winds will turn light and variable at
most of the terminals tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: The terminal will lie on the northern periphery
of a large area of showers and thunderstorms through 14Z. Have
added just VCSH for now with just VFR conditions, but may need to
amend to add -SHRA if showers move farther northward than
expected. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions the rest of the
TAF period.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

329 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

Isld/scttrd SHRAs will continue to dot the area thru the prd. Weak
forcing along a diffuse bndry will keep sporadic precip percolating.
Current activity across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL should slowly
dsspt/move NE after 6Z. Guidance hints at another batch of convection
dvlpng across SW MO tonight. This precip, if it dvlps, will move
NE but appears to remain south of the STL metro terminals. Limited
coverage precludes mention attm. SHRA coverage may increase Wed aftn
with the highest coverage expected to be east of the STL metro. Winds
will become wrly Wed mrng.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd though there will be isld/scttrd SHRAs. A weak
bndry will push thru the terminal drng the late mrng allwoing winds
to become more wrly and taking the better chance of rain with it.
Limited coverage precludes mention in the fcst attm.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1152 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Currently monitoring southeast Kansas and western Missouri for the
development of deep convection over the next several hours.

A low level jet was strengthening across eastern Oklahoma
overnight, which will trigger thunderstorms across southern
Missouri.

We expect this trend to continue into the Ozarks into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

There is a pocket of drier air between 800 and 900mb that would
support a risk for damaging wind gusts with any organized updrafts
tonight. Some cape exists within the hail growth zone, so we can
not ruled out a marginal hail risk either.

0-3 km shear vectors will orient west southwest to east northeast through
the overnight hours ranging from 30 to 40 knots. Any north to
south oriented line segment will be capable of organizing and
producing an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends tonight.

A weak disturbance was approaching the region from the west, and
is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the night.

Any storms that directly impacts an airport will temporarily create lower
flight conditions with reduced visibilities. There is also a risk
for damaging wind gusts and a marginal risk for large hail with any
storms that can become organized.

Otherwise look for southerly breezes at 5 to 10 mph over the next
24 hours.

Safe travels.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

230 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AFTER TODAY...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY TO NORTHEAST
ELKO COUNTY HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH ALL NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ELKO AND
SPRING CREEK AREAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM PDT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
ABUNDANT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS EVER SO SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS THE
LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. THE HRR AND RAP MODELS PICKED OUT THIS
SHORT WAVE EXTENDING OFF OF THE MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER
ID/WA/OR. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO MOVE THE MEAN LOW FEATURE
IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FASHION. THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE MEAN LOW FEATURE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWFA AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AREAS AS WELL...THE EXCEPTION
BEING MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THEN AS THE MEAN TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER
WYOMING...YET ONE MORE WEAK SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY FOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE REALLY
IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA...
WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH EITHER
MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/94/94

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

953 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. THE RADAR HAS SHOWN A
GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THE PAST HOUR BUT SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL BE GENERATED TO CONTINUE THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THROUGH 1130 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AND NORTH MOST THE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT A LEADING TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SO FAR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES THEN THINGS WILL TREND DOWN. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WINDS TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NORTHWEST SEEMS TO BE
KICKING THE WINDS UP A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND A MORE DISTINCT PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AIDED
BY MULTIPLE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THEIR 1630Z DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ML CAPE OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF IMPULSES PROPAGATING NORTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND POTENTIAL WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 16-17 UTC.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF MY EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH. NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MY SOUTH
CENTRAL...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THIS.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS PARKED ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT...FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE HRRR IS SHOWING FOG
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE WRF/RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGAIN THE INGREDIENT THAT APPEARS TO BE LACKING
IS SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING NEEDED TO KICK THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DRY AND COOL FRI-SAT AFTERNOON PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT
55-65. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THE 30S. WOULD EXPECT SOME SORT OF FROST HEADLINES BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE MOVES EAST IN ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS
AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO REMOVED THUNDER AND WENT WITH STRAIGHT SHOWERS.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS.
WE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE MODELS
PUT THE STRONGER WAA.

STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/EC MODELS STILL PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR
FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR
WILL SET UP. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THE FRONT WILL PULL STRATUS CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z
TO VFR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

326 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE....NAMELY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN THEIR GOOD HANDLING OF THE EVENT THUS FAR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THIS EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 09-11 UTC.

FOR THURSDAY...SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR MARGINAL THREAT AREA IN THE
DAY TWO OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A COOL FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...A COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND POTENTIAL FROST. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COMMENCES SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES WERE USED
FOR MOST FIELDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL TERMINALS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

306 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHWOING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

105 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. AS OF 18
UTC...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
CUMULUS FIELDS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO GROW IN VERTICAL EXTENT
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH THE 14-16 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE
PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS REGARDING CONVECTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THE 11-13 UTC HRRR RUNS
AND 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS INITIATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AROUND 19 UTC FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE 13
UTC RAP DEPICTING ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. THEY BOTH DEPICT A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING EASTERN MONTANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW OUT WEST. THEREFORE...TWO ROUNDS OVER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...COLD FRONT INDUCED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
TROUGH/LOW INDUCED THIS EVENING.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE RAP AND NAM HAVE
NEARLY 1000 J/KG CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER LACKING AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. THEREFORE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE RATHER
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH PWATS AROUND
1.0-1.25 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS MY NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV AND NORTH OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 30S.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/EC MODELS STILL PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR
FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME ONCE OUR FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A VERY ACTIVE/WET 2-3 DAYS NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING CONTNIUES TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING CAPES LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY AND CIN IS A BIT STRONGER...BUT TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY
WOULD ERODE ANY CIN AROUND 21Z. HI RES MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
ACTIVITY VERY SCT IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT THINKING
THROUGH 06Z...WHEN ATTENTION TURNS TO INCOMING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER WAVE AND TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT. ONLY CHANGES
TO THURSDAY AT THIS POINT (HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED 12Z ECMWF) WILL
BE TO GO MORE TSTMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS
DUE TO SHOWALTERS BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY.
SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS
SHEAR VALUES. THEN NAME CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A
HAILER OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MORE DISCUSSION ON TOMORROW
WITH 21Z FCST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

955 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL TERMINALS LIKELY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

942 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER ISOLATED...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

407 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS VEERING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR
FOG THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

103 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT BOTH OKC AND OUN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE 4KM NAM AND OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSPS/KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT THESE
SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

LATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
DID NOT TO MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAHALE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FG HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE W EDGE OF
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FG APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF W OK...AND A FEW MAY AFFECT TAF
SITES. IN PARTICULAR...A RATHER STRONG TSRA WILL PROBABLY PASS
OVER OR NEAR KLAW AROUND 12Z. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID- TO LATE-MORNING. NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z IN SW OK. THESE TSRA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OUT AND ADVANCE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY W AND N OK AND THE KSPS AREA...BUT A
FEW MAY REACH KOKC/KOUN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BR/FG MAY FORM
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
POST-THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WILL BE...ANY FORECAST OF BR/FG WOULD BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESS.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE LEFT A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER VERY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM GENERATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIVES IT WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE IGNORED THE NAM FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GEOGRAPHIC OR TIMING COHERENCE. THIS CHANGES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE OVERALL.

BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL FINALLY SHUT
DOWN THE ALMOST DAILY BARRAGES OF STORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE VERY WET GROUND...THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
MORE COMMON THAN IN A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. SIMILARLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED...AS THE HEAT IS USED TO EVAPORATE WATER RATHER THAN
HEAT THE GROUND AND ADJACENT AIR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 65 80 66 / 40 40 50 60
HOBART OK 84 64 78 63 / 40 50 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 65 82 66 / 50 40 40 70
GAGE OK 83 62 80 61 / 40 50 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 80 66 / 30 40 40 50
DURANT OK 82 66 82 67 / 60 40 40 60

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/84/10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT SOME SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL... WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF STORMS IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

BTL/CC/TRW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

BTL/CC/TRW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
NOT RETURN BEFORE DAYBREAK. THAT SAID...HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHRA REDEVELOPING OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND THE NC MTNS.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED WORDING FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURNS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
FORECAST AS THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE LOWERED LOWS IN RESPONSE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

945 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...NOW EFFECTIVELY BEING DISCRETE CELLS LINED UP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL. IF NOTHING ELSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRUCTURE WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED DOWNPOURS TO MOST OF
THE YET UNTOUCHED PART OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO. GUSTS HAVE BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA WAS TAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE AND REFLECTED A STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RAP PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO REBOUND WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION IN THE
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO NEW POPS REFLECT THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PRESENT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE THE UPPER
DYNAMIC FEATURES MOVE ACROSS POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT HIGH IMPACT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HISTORY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORTICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHUD NOT RETURN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS MVFR THEN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK AS IS OCCURRING
TO THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH THESE TRENDS AS WELL. EXPECT A RETURN TO
MVFR BY MID MORNING...THEN LOW VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON TSRA EXPECTED
AGAIN...AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 DURING THIS TIME. S TO SW WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...IFR ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SC SITES...BUT HAS BEEN
IN AND OUT THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED IFR BUT KEPT TEMPO
VFR EARLY FOR THE BRIEF SCATTERING. KAVL AND KHKY SHUD SEE MVFR THEN
IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHUD SEE A SLOW RISE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN...SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30. HAVE
KEPT LOW VFR FOR THE EVENING...BUT RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN BEFORE
THE END OF THE PERIOD. S TO SW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 69% LOW 55% MED 65% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 56% MED 70% MED 60% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 62% LOW 43% MED 60% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 69% MED 70% MED 70% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED A BIT BY A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT...THE BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SHIFT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HRRR SHOWS A RATHER
WIDESPREAD SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
OVERNIGHT. THUS...POPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WISE...WE ARE ONLY UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
DROP TO BELOW 1F FOR MANY AREAS. ALSO...NUMERICAL DATA SHOWING
SOME LOW VSBY CATS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

ON THURSDAY...18Z CAP EROSION LOOKS PRONOUNCED ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE
LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFT AND INTO THE EVE.

CAPES LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ALOFT
COME MORE INTO PLAY. AT THAT TIME...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD
FRONT TO GAIN SOME SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM TOWARD OUR AREA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA...IT WILL STALL
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ALOFT...MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOW DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE STALLED OUT SFC FRONT...WOULD ORDINARILY
POSE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED DEEP MOISTURE REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL OF COURSE KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN.

EXT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
MULTI-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL...WITH HEIGHT
VALUES ON THE ELEVATED SIDE. THIS EQUATES TO A WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 85 65 86 / 30 40 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 65 86 64 85 / 30 30 20 40
CROSSVILLE 61 78 62 78 / 40 50 20 40
COLUMBIA 64 85 65 86 / 40 40 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 64 84 64 84 / 40 40 20 40
WAVERLY 65 86 65 85 / 30 30 20 40

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

CJC

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

CJC

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

301 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY SOME CIRRUS AT
PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY WITH A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS POPS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY...BOTH HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ARKLAMISS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST. THUS HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FORECAST
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR A QUICK WARMUP AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS. FCST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE MLCAPE
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS...SO A FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE MID
STATE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH COOL
DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS IS COMMON WHEN WE MOVE
INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 66 87 67 / 50 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 84 66 85 66 / 50 30 30 20
CROSSVILLE 80 63 81 63 / 40 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 84 65 86 65 / 50 30 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 82 65 84 66 / 50 30 40 20
WAVERLY 83 65 85 66 / 50 30 30 20

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1034 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL
4 AM CDT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CWA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS PROG THAT THE
LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY
EXPANDING THE WATCH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS. ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF CURRENT INTENSITY OF STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT DID NOT INCLUDE SVR IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DID BUMP UP POPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE HOURLY
WX ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE LRD TAF
SITE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. THOUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME IFR VSBYS AT
VCT AND WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG/BR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS GUSTY SE WINDS RETURN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALL IN PART TO A WEAKER CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE OF
PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES PER THE 12Z KCRP/KBRO SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT EXPECTED INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OUT WEST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOCUS TRANSITIONS TO THE MCS COMPUTER MODELS ARE SPINNING UP
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT RESIDES
NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WEAKENING CAP AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...EXPECTING THE LINE
TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA. SOME 4KM WRF MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF LINE MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD BE MORE
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE THETA-E
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE
MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE THE
SLOWER TIMING. THE MAIN LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DRAWING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...MAY SEE
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY RESIDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER DID COOL
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM EXPECTED RAIN AND
CLOUD COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY TROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH A
CORRESPONDING SFC BNDRY ENTERING THE CWA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING/MEANDERING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. FURTHER...AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ERN
CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY (DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THE COMBINATION OF THE
BOUNDARY/SRN UPPER TROUGH/NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
OVER THE CWA/MSA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AXIS OVER THE EXTREME WRN
GULF/TX COAST REGION DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
SFC BNDRY WL LIKELY DISSPATE MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TUESDAY-THURSDAY
YET WITH MSTR AS THE LIMITING FACTOR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 88 76 86 73 / 30 40 10 30 40
VICTORIA 75 86 74 86 72 / 40 40 20 40 50
LAREDO 77 92 75 90 73 / 60 20 10 30 40
ALICE 76 89 74 88 72 / 40 30 10 30 40
ROCKPORT 79 84 78 84 75 / 30 30 20 30 40
COTULLA 74 88 72 88 71 / 70 30 20 40 50
KINGSVILLE 78 89 76 88 73 / 30 40 10 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 79 84 78 84 76 / 30 30 10 30 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TE/81...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1005 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS. ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF CURRENT INTENSITY OF STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT DID NOT INCLUDE SVR IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DID BUMP UP POPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE HOURLY
WX ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 88 76 86 73 / 20 40 10 30 40
VICTORIA 75 86 74 86 72 / 30 40 20 40 50
LAREDO 77 92 75 90 73 / 40 20 10 30 40
ALICE 76 89 74 88 72 / 30 30 10 30 40
ROCKPORT 79 84 78 84 75 / 20 30 20 30 40
COTULLA 74 88 72 88 71 / 50 30 20 40 50
KINGSVILLE 78 89 76 88 73 / 20 40 10 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 79 84 78 84 76 / 20 30 10 30 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TB/78...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

918 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...A SOLID LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
IT COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT TRIES TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST.
DUE TO ITS CURRENT SPEED AND EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAINFALL TOTALS
PEAKING UNDER ONE INCH. IF THE COMPLEX DOES NOT MAKE IT OFF THE COAST...
WE COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE
IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN AND AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS.
FOR THE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED EVERYONE`S RAIN CHANCES A GOOD
10% TO 20% FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST
AND CHANCE POPS AT THE COAST. FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES ARE GOING TO DEPEND
HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT...WITH A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
FORM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MAKES IT TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SUBSEQUENT HRRR MODEL RUNS. I
ADDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS FOR KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HRRR. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE
HRRR SOLUTION...I MAY HAVE TO MORE AGGRESSIVELY BRING IN MORNING
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA DURING THE 03Z TAF UPDATE.

ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. SIMILAR TO
TODAY THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT ALL THE UPCOMING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...HOUSTON IAH DID REACH 90F TODAY WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME
HITTING 90 DEGREES IN 2015. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON IAH HAD A 90
DEGREE DAY WAS OCTOBER 10 2014. AVERAGE 1ST DAY OF 90 DEGREES AT
HOUSTON IAH IS AROUND MAY 7.

HOPEFULLY EVERYONE ENJOYED SOME BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WET WEEKEND WITH PROBABLY 2 PERIODS OF
WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
2 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE S ROCKIES AND W TX
WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOMORROW AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE N ROCKIES WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATE SAT INTO SUN.

WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN W TX WHICH MAY
FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
HOLD THIS LINE OF STORMS TOGETHER AND HAVE IT REACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING HOUSTON BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AS IS THE CASE IN C TX AND N TX.

MODELS STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX
TOMORROW. ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME COOLING WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND DIFFLUENCE IN THE THE JET TO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT.
DAY TIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SHOULD
AGAIN SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WITH A SWATH OF 1.8 INCH PW FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO LUFKIN. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WILL BE A BIG KEY FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE WEAK CAPPING
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE CAP WEAKEST NORTH OF HOUSTON. ORIENTED 50
POPS FOR HOUSTON NORTHWARD BASED ON CAPPING AND LOWER PRECIP
WATER ALONG THE COAST.

MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BY 00Z SUN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DROPPING INTO THE S PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO PUSHES INTO TX AND LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MAY MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE COAST LATER ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK
AND DIFFLUENT DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SAT AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 1.8 INCHES AREA WIDE.
MISSING FROM THIS SET UP IS A STRONG LLJ OFF THE GULF BUT STILL
THINK GIVEN FORCING FROM THE FRONT...VENTING ALOFT WITH DIFFLUENCE
AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES AN HR RAINRATES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS CAN BE ACHIEVED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS TIME FRAME FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ANY STORMS OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE OVER 3
INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST...MORE STORMS MAY BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME BREAK IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING BUT COULD SEE MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY CLOSE OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW. DRIER AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE WISH WE COULD END THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF MON INTO TUE
OVER LOUISIANA. ECMWF TAKES THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT SE TX WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY. DESPITE THAT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP AND CONVECTION WITH DAY TIME HEATING.
POSSIBLY BY WED/THU NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT (IN RESPONSE
TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST)
WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECT-
ING MUCH MORE THAN MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM LATE FRI/EARLY SAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCEC FLAGS FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME. MODELS STILL CALLING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO STALL
OVER SE TX SUNDAY...AND ITS PROXIMITY MAY BRIEFLY BACK WINDS TO THE
EAST AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...THE VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO NEXT MON/TUES. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 85 70 83 67 / 60 50 20 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 71 85 69 / 40 50 20 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 85 76 84 74 / 30 30 20 30 40

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 85 70 85 67 / 70 40 30 60 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 84 68 84 65 / 70 50 30 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 85 70 85 67 / 60 40 30 60 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 68 82 65 / 70 40 30 60 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 73 86 68 / 80 20 20 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 69 83 65 / 70 40 30 60 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 87 71 85 67 / 70 30 30 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 70 84 67 / 60 50 30 60 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 85 71 85 68 / 60 50 30 60 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 86 71 85 68 / 70 40 30 60 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 86 71 85 68 / 60 40 30 50 50

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

714 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT...WITH A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
FORM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MAKES IT TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY SUBSEQUENT HRRR MODEL RUNS. I
ADDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS FOR KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HRRR. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET AND ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE
HRRR SOLUTION...I MAY HAVE TO MORE AGGRESSIVELY BRING IN MORNING
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA DURING THE 03Z TAF UPDATE.

ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. SIMILAR TO
TODAY THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 44

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 85 70 83 67 / 40 50 20 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 71 85 69 / 20 50 20 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 85 76 84 74 / 20 30 20 30 40

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE LRD TAF
SITE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. THOUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME IFR VSBYS AT
VCT AND WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG/BR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS GUSTY SE WINDS RETURN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TB/78...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 86 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 30 40 30 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 71 82 68 / 40 40 50 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 70 86 72 / 30 30 60 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 72 84 69 / 40 40 40 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 40 40 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 72 84 69 / 30 40 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 85 71 / 20 40 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 40 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 74 86 72 / 20 30 30 40 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES POPS A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF STORMS CONTINUING TO EDGE THIS WAY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED THE EVENING SHOWER CHANCES TO 20%...BUT THE MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. STILL WATCHING THE NORTH TEXAS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COMPLEX AS IT SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT OVERNIGHT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE STORMS (OR THEIR REMNANTS) COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 30% POPS UP NORTH AND 20% SOUTH...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON THE POPS IN
FUTURE UPDATES IF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER AND GETS CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE A WARM LATE MAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRED AT 6 PM. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT
UNTOUCHED FOR NOW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPARENT SEABREEZE WERE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AT 23Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
INLAND SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ARW FORECASTS THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. THINK THAT THE MAIN SCENARIO WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME...GOING TO ALLOW FF WATCH FOR HARRIS AND
FORT BEND COUNTIES TO CONTINUE THRU 6 PM AS THERE ARE COME CELLS
NEARBY. ATTENTION TURNS TO N AND W TX AS CONVECTION FIRES THERE.
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS DISSIPATING BEFORE EVEN
REACHING SE TX. HOWEVER...LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REMNANTS TO MOVE INTO N & E PARTS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FCST AND LET NEXT SHIFT UPDATE WITH TRENDS.

WX ON WED & THURS WILL CONSIST OF WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE NORMAL
EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS AROUND HERE. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY
TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW
GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK
INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BACK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REALLY NOT A BIG FAN OF SEEING THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS TRYING TO BRING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SE TX LATE SAT AND SUN. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT THE
STRONG TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE WILL HELP MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THIS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE WX PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE...OTHER CONCERNS
THESE SEVERAL DAYS INVOLVE RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TIDES. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH
TIDE NEAR AND ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 40 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 20 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN. THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

237 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1039 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z. SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS TO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS...AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RESULT...TRENDED
THESE BACK BY ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z FRIDAY...SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE FOR THIS. HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THREAT WOULD BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE FRONT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THE 29.00Z MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
BEFORE REMOVING THEM.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

926 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR SHOWS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE IN MADISON AND 250 JOULES/KG AT MILWAUKEE.

NEW 00Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE TIMING AND REDUCED THE INTENSITY OF THE
SIMULATED RADAR TROUGH 03Z BUT STRENGTHENS IT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR NOW.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM.
THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING THAT
COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED MIDDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER.
MVFR/IFR WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SW WI OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THEN IT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY MIDDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE AND ADVECTION ACTIVITY.

THE LLJ WILL BEGIN POINT INTO INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
WI... PERHAPS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPE WILL BE
DECENT...UP TO 1000 J/KG... DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. BY 00Z/SAT...PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE CLIMBED
TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE REACHING 90TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
FROM WSW AROUND 25 KTS HOWEVER WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WITH
SOUTHWEST 25KT WINDS...RESULTANT MESO-BETA ELEMENTS DEMONSTRATE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF 5 TO 10 KTS. FORTUNATELY...3 HOUR FFG MOST AREAS AROUND
2-2.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW...WL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO. CWASP VALUES
OVER 70 PERCENT FRIDAY EVENING AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000-1500 J/KG. MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SEVERE SO
MARGINAL RISK LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

LEANING MORE ON 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS NAM SHOWING STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST WI/TRI-STATE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL
OPEN TROF EXITING SOUTHEAST WI LATER SATURDAY. HENCE WL CONTINUE
SHOWER THREAT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS LOW
LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

925H TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 3-4C LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. SIGNFICANTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 925H TEMPS
COLLAPSING 10-15C FROM FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO TUESDAY AS LONG WAVE TROF SPREADS INTO
WESTERN CONUS. HENCE QUIETER...DRIER CONDITIONS ASSOCD WITH SFC
RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN FOCUSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS
AFFECTING NW WI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP DURING THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE COOL LAKE MI WATERS CONTINUING TO
COOL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HENCE INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AROUND FRI/SAT AS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GTLAKES. GFS 500H 5-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GTLAKES THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING... A LULL MIDDAY... AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND BRING
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED. WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN. BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO. CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR. CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...AND A DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS...
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THRU THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS AND NOW RATHER MOIST LANDSCAPE...
CONSIDERED A BR MENTION IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER ALSO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW...AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS LATE TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 5F OR MORE RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...FOR SFC WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

335 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE
10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND
INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION AT RFD...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY PRECIP THRU MID MORNING. GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE
FOCUSED ON A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON AND THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
COVERAGE/DURATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. ASSUMING THIS ACTIVITY
DOES MATERIALIZE...WOULD EXPECT A BIT OF LULL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MORE
LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL
LOW...AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIP COULD BE POST FRONTAL INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED VICINITY MENTION IN THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF
FOR NOW.

WINDS/GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOME MID/LATE AFTERNOON ONCE PRECIP
ENDS AND CLOUDS SCATTER BUT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM FOR TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...

335 AM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH SOME GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GALES. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE...SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 15-25KT IS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...LEAVING A
WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.

THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.

PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS AND
VSBYS. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
AT KSPI WHERE THEY RECEIVED SOME RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A 6 MILE RESTRICTION TO VSBY LATE
TONIGHT AT SPI AS THEIR TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 3 DEGREES. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AT SPI WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE FOG
FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL MO TRACKING NORTHEAST AND MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MORNING AS THIS
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS STILL VERY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VCSH OR VCTS
GOING TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP COMING
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
840 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
225 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
314 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES DURING THE PERIOD ARE WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

WINDS/GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOME MID/LATE AFTERNOON ONCE PRECIP
ENDS AND CLOUDS SCATTER BUT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM FOR TSRA LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY....CHANCE SHRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO SPREAD HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATERS NORTHEAST FARTHER INTO THE DVN CWA...AND RANGED FROM NEAR 1
INCH IN NW IL TO 1.4 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO
FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MO
BUT MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK. THE HRRR INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. I
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER FRIDAY MORNING
BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

356 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Very active and chaotic pattern in the short term. A moist and
somewhat unstable airmass covered the central plains early this
morning with southwest upper flow ahead of the main shortwave over
the central Rockies. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developed over southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma after 05 UTC.
The convection was supported by a decent low-level jet at 925 mb
modest moisture transport. In the near term, forecasted the cluster
of storms over southeast Kansas to move through our southeast and
eastern counties early this morning.

The shortwave over the central Rockies moves into the central plains
today and tonight. A cold front extending from South Dakota
southwest into eastern Colorado at 06 UTC is forecast by all short
term models to move through northeast Kansas between 00 UTC and 06
UTC tonight. Given the abundant moisture and modest instability,
will continue showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until the
front moves through. Will then end precipitation chances from
northwest to southeast the moisture is pushed out of the area and
cool advection takes over behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

With upper trough passing through early Saturday, have doubts much
precip will be left in the morning and have lowered PoPs further.
Low cloud does look to remain rather prevalent and expect highs to
struggle to breach the upper 60s in moderate north wind. Weak
surface ridging then holds the area through the weekend with quiet
weather persisting into early next week as upper ridging builds into
the central ConUS. Models showing decent agreement in a shortwave
working its way through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern
Plains around Wednesday. Could see precip breach the northwest
counties with this and possibly drape a boundary farther southeast
by Thursday for modest precip chances. Temps gradually warm into the
mid week with uncertainty on specifics increasing with time.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Confidence in timing TS at the terminals remains low due to weak
forcing and a lack of a strong surface feature to focus
convection. Because of this, refinement to the forecast is likely
to be needed. With the initial wave moving in and scattered
convection developing out ahead of the outflow, just went with a
tempo for the next several hours. It`s hard to see if there is an
MCV over central KS, but the RAP has one analyzed out there so the
chance for TS remains in place through the day Friday. While I
don`t expect there to be continuous rainfall, it is difficult to
pick out a chunk of time when precip could not occur. Because of
this continue with a VCTS through the forecast period. There are
some differences in timing the frontal passage Friday evening with
the GFS more progressive. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast, will let later shifts try and nail down the FROPA a
little better. Looks like there may be some lower CIGS with the
front as well.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1216 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 70 51 75 / 40 10 10 0
GCK 53 69 50 77 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 53 70 53 79 / 50 20 10 10
LBL 55 71 53 77 / 40 20 10 10
HYS 53 69 49 75 / 40 10 10 0
P28 58 71 54 75 / 50 10 10 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-088>090.

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1145 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

On Thursday afternoon, an unorganized and rather chaotic atmospheric
setup was in place over Kansas. Several mesoscale features were
evident in radar imagery as rotating areas of precip represented
small scale energy. One larger vorticity maxima was moving northeast
across western Iowa while another was moving northeast across
southwest Missouri. Smaller scale vorticity maxima appeared to be
moving east across north central Kansas with another moving nearly
due north across extreme eastern Kansas. All of these vort maxima
were producing enhanced areas of showers and some thunderstorms as
the weak enhancement in vertical motion was easily enough to
overtake a weakly capped and weakly unstable environment. However,
in the past hour have seen a general decrease in precip coverage
likely a result of the larger scale circulations shifting off to the
east. In the short term, through mid evening, expect scattered
showers and a few storms to continue although also expecting a
continued decrease in coverage. Severe weather potential is minimal
although any convection able to develop from Salina toward Emporia
could be strong as there is a bit of clearing and warming taking
place in that region. Flooding potential also seems minimal through
this evening given decreasing trends, but if a convective cluster
was able to develop and train over some of the areas that have
received heavy rain in the past 24 hours there is some small
potential for localized flash flooding.

For tonight`s forecast into Friday morning, we must take a broader
look at forcing mechanisms as the mesoscale features have proven
extremely tough to predict with accuracy. A trough axis evident in
water vapor imagery extended from Wyoming through central Colorado
and into eastern New Mexico with several individual smaller vort
maxima evident within the trough axis. Upslope flow in conjunction
with the approaching upper energy has already initiated widespread
thunderstorms across the High Plains region, and model guidance is
rather consistent in tracking the vorticity into central KS by early
Friday morning and into eastern KS by sunrise on Friday. Thus, have
at least mid range confidence in a convective cluster developing
across western KS this evening and tracking east across the state
overnight into Friday morning, not unlike what developed and move
east last night into Thursday AM. However, it is not clear cut how
far east this complex will progress before dissipating as the low
level jet veers with little LLJ convergence. There are indications
of some elevated instability which may sustain the complex as it
moves east IF there is enough forcing in the low levels. Will be
something to monitor this evening but for now have gone with fairly
high PoPs for the entire area through Friday morning.

Friday looks to be messy on the mesoscale once again with the main
upper trough approaching from the northwest and smaller features
likely impacting the area as well. There is a strong signal for
periods of rain and thunderstorms especially south of a Marysville
to Abilene line through the day so have kept higher PoPs in those
areas. Flooding will be dependent upon the persistence of rain over
an area, and given the expected scattered nature of storms through
the day, have not issued any flood watch products at this time.
Expect plenty of cloud cover through the short term period which
will keep lows warm in the 60s tonight and high temperatures in the
mid 70s again on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Main positive tilt longwave trough will move across the region
forcing a cold front southward through the state on Friday night.
Showers and thunderstorms along the front should exit the area
around 12Z Saturday or shortly thereafter. The 700MB trough passes
by midday so there could be lingering cloud cover but cooler and
drier air will move into the area setting up a much needed dry
period for most of the weekend and into next week. In fact, both
ECMWF and GFS suggest dry weather could persist into next Weds
before the next upper trough moves into the Plains with the next
Chance for storms expected to be sometime later Weds into Thurs.
Temps should rise back toward avgs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
while dewpoints should stay in the 50s through Monday before
southerly flow develops Tues with dewpoints expected to be back in
the 60s by then.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ENTER NORTHERN
MI OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIDING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...WITH APN THE MOST LIKELY TAF TO BE IMPACTED.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY TSRA...BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF A LOW TSRA CHANCE IS TRICKY TO PORTRAY IN A
TAF. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE VCSH PATH. OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING
-SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. LLWS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONGER S WINDS OFF THE DECK. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COMPLEX FRONTAL PASSAGE IN TERMS OF PRECIP TIMING...PLACEMENT...
AND COVERAGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 3 AM...THAT
FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NE WYOMING ACROSS SODAK TO THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER THEN UP TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS FROM THERE. THERE IS A HINT
OF A SFC LOW OVER EASTERN SODAK IN THE SFC OBS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS FEATURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TO
THIS POINT...THE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING WELL WITH WHAT THE FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY HAD...SO THERE WERE NOT DRASTIC CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPS DEPARTURE SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.

RIGHT OUT THE GATE...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY MODEL THAT HAS
INITIATED ALL THAT WELL. THE HRRR AND 3Z HOPWRF MEMBERS GOT CLOSEST
TO WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND SW MN NOW...BUT HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATE IN GETTING THIS ACTIVITY GOING. STILL...FAVORED THE POP
FORECAST TODAY HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR/HOPWRF...JUST KNOWING WE HAD
TO SPREAD ACTIVITY IN A BITTER FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD SHOW.

WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY IS LEAD WAA SHOWERS OVER ERN MN/WRN
WI WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE MPX CWA BY ABOUT 15Z...THOUGH AT THAT
TIME THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE NEB MOVING
INTO SW MN WITH THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AS WELL WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW MN THAT WILL WORK OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS EXPANSION OF PRECIP
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MORE WINTER-LIKE FORCING FEATURES AS MN/WRN WI
FIND THEMSELVES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH STRONG FGEN NOTED IN THE H85-H7
LAYER. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE
PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF LENDING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A
BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW MN TOWARD THE WRN TWIN
CITIES METRO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FROPA AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO LARGELY BE UNDER 30 KTS...WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS WELL.

OTHER TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE STILL UP AROUND 14C...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AGAIN OUT TOWARD EAU...THOUGH CURRENT THOUGHT
IS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THINGS BACK IN THE 70S. ON THE OTHER END OF
THE CWA...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES OUT
AROUND AXN IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT IN WRN MN...WHERE CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH DEWPS
DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING TO
START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOL WITH MIX-DOWN
FROM THE GFS AT 850MB PROVIDING THE FOUNDATION FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE FA. FROST IS LIKELY ALONG
HIGHWAY 8 IN OUR WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES. WIND AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS FROM THE MAVMOS SUGGEST LOWS COULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST FROM A DAY AGO.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FROM A
COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER...INCLUDING MID
LEVEL WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THIS
POINT...ALLOWED FOR SMALL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS WHICH WOULD HAVE
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE TWIN CITIES AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD
STOP THE SHOWERS AT OUR WESTERN BORDER. CERTAINLY DON/T SEE THE
SHOWERS PER THE GFS AS PROFILE DATA SHOWS QUITE THE DRY WEDGE FROM
700 MB ON DOWN WITH ANY FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.

SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMEPRATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...AFTER
12AM-3AM A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN WI. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS RAIN. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

KMSP...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS /ABOUT 2000FT/ FOR THE MORNING
RUSH...RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT
EARLY IN THE MORNING. IF THE RAIN NEVER QUITE MATERIALIZES...THEN
CEILINGS MAY NEVER GET TOO LOW...BUT WE`D BE SURPRISED IF KMSP
DIDN`T GET A LOW CEILING AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING...EVEN THOUGH
THERE ISN`T A WHOLE OF LOW STUFF OUT THERE NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

250 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM: (This Weekend)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A few showers dot the radar scope locally, but have my eyes on a
cluster of convection increasing in coverage across eastern KS/OK
early this morning. This activity is moving east at 20KT and is on
schedule to arrive in central MO later this morning between 10 AM
and NOON and eastern MO/western IL between NOON and 3 PM. Additional
storms will likely form this afternoon areawide as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
just like yesterday a few stronger storms could produce some local
wind gusts and/or small hail. Temperatures will range from the 70s
in central Missouri to the 80s across eastern MO and IL.

Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approching the area from the
northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to
our northern CWA. The front will move southeast across the CWA
tonight and Saturday, reaching St. Lous around 18Z. The best chances
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with a
clearing trend from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will depend on convective trends
and frontal position, but generally think upper 60s northwest to 80s
southeast.

Sunday appears to be dry now as the front pushes south and a ridge
of high pressure builds across the region. It will be a cooler day
with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A cutoff low is expected to develop across the lower Mississippi
River Valley underneath a bulding ridge of high pressure aloft.
Appears the cutoff will stay far enough south that PoPs will be
limited and temperatures should increase through the period back
into the middle 80s. Next trof of low pressure approaches on
Thursday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the western CWA.

CVKING

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Short wave continue to lift across the area, still kickig up some
showers in central MO. HRRR is high on this with high MOS pops as
well so have put a vcsh for COU and UIN for some of the overnight
hours. Next weaker wave will likely kick off more tsra Friday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: Skeptical about all the precip the HRRR is
producing before the short wave exits east central mo. Have thus
left short term dry. Scattered tsra for Friday afternoon with more
coverage to the north of STL. Next best shot of precipitation will
be late in the period as the cold front begins moving into
northern mo.

JPK

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1147 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

GKS

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Gosselin

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

(Friday-Saturday Night)

(Sunday-Thursday)

Gosselin

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

JPK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 84 69 77 / 30 60 60 60
Quincy 65 81 65 70 / 30 60 70 50
Columbia 66 79 65 72 / 30 70 70 50
Jefferson City 66 80 66 73 / 30 70 70 50
Salem 67 84 69 79 / 20 40 40 70
Farmington 65 80 68 78 / 20 50 40 70

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

331 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOOTHILLS /ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA/ EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
RAP SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK 500-MB
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING STABILIZES THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F...BUT WE DID
WEIGHT THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND EARLY-DAY CLOUD
COVER. EXTENSIVE STRATUS FORMED OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 09 UTC AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.

TONIGHT...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING...AND OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER
THAN IT HAS RECENTLY AND SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL. IN FACT...FORECAST LOWS AT BAKER ARE IN THE UPPER 30S F.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL JUMP WELL INTO THE 70S F IN MOST PLACES
PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 F IN MANY AREAS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEK...WITH 0-6-KM BULK
WIND SHEAR OF 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...
WE ARE DOWNPLAYING THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS
THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE SREF SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK FROM
200 TO 400 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED STRONG UPDRAFTS. THUS...WHILE WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LOW FOR US TO DO ANY SPECIAL MESSAGING LIKE ISSUANCE
OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT
THERE WAS GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL. THE NAEFS SHOWED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CONTINUING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MON.

SUN WILL FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE CAPE/SHEAR ON THE SREF AND WRF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DID NOT HAVE VERY STRONG CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES.
SUN WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW. MODELS SPREAD CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWED INCREASING CAPES AND SHEAR ON MON SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.

SW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC LOW. HOWEVER...NOTED THE ECMWF HAS LESS ENERGY OVER
THE AREA THAN THE GFS ON THU. CONTINUED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT/S
RUNS...MODELS DID NOT LOOK AS CERTAIN FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR
TUE AND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AS
MODELS TRY TO CLOSE OFF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR W OF KBIL. S OF KBIL...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THE KSHR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...WITH WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 047/078 053/083 056/082 054/078 051/072 050/072
1/E 12/T 32/T 23/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 065 045/073 051/079 053/077 048/071 046/067 043/070
2/T 24/T 43/T 25/T 45/T 44/T 33/T
HDN 066 046/080 052/084 055/086 054/079 052/074 050/076
1/E 12/T 32/T 25/T 42/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 064 045/077 053/081 058/085 057/078 054/073 052/074
1/B 02/T 42/T 23/T 43/T 43/T 23/T
4BQ 063 044/076 054/081 057/084 057/078 054/073 051/074
1/E 01/B 22/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 061 039/068 046/077 053/082 054/076 051/073 049/073
1/B 01/N 42/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
SHR 061 042/076 049/079 053/080 052/075 048/070 046/071
7/W 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 43/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

240 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIRRUS WAS EXITING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A JET STREAK PULLS ON EAST. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY, MORE CIRRUS WILL SPILL IN OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TODAY HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. WE ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE MAV (GFS). AT MCCARRAN AIRPORT TODAY WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 99 BUT MANY SPOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY.

THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAK
RIPPLE NOTED IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS PROGGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
POP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUPPORTED THE CURRENT POPS.

EVEN WARMER (MAYBE HOTTER DEPENDING ON YOUR TAKE) IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY THEN GETS PUSHED EAST ON SUNDAY BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. WE CONTINUED TO SIDE THE
WARMER MAV FOR HIGH TEMPS WHICH PUTS LAS VEGAS AT THE FIRST TRIPLE
DIGITS OF THE YEAR AT MCCARRAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS
NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON SUNDAY IN LAS VEGAS (RECORD IS 104 SET IN
2002). OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY AROUND BARSTOW.

REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED THIS WEEKEND AND IF IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS BE CAREFUL FOR THE IMPACTS OF SNOW MELT INCLUDING COLD AND
RAPID FLOWS IN STREAMS AND CREEKS AND MELTED SNOW REFREEZING AND
FORMING ICE ON TRAILS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THOUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER A SCORCHING WEEKEND GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING WILL TAKE OVER THE
WESTERN US...LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH ANY IMPACTS AROUND THE AREA LIMITED TO WIND AND HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT MORE
ENERGY COMING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 14-
18 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT
TIMES AOA 25K FEET. TEMPS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100F BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ON SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TODAY THROUGH
AROUND 05Z SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF KBIH-KBJN-KCDC LINE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS AGAIN FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND KDAG.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...STEELE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DRY AND COOL FRI-SAT AFTERNOON PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT EACH OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH EXACT
TIMING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

447 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH HRRR RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING CLOSE TO THE PA/MD BORDER.
OTHERWISE LOOK TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH
BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT JUST SOME SCT CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z...AND AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL /SUB 0.50/
PWAT AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.

ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...KLNS COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG THIS MORNING SINCE THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED OUT SFC BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TRANSPORT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE OTHERWISE
CLEAR AND COOL AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER ON
FRIDAY...AS MUCH HIGHER PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES STREAMS NE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD
AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KAUS TO KTPL LINE AT INITIAL
29/06Z TIME OF TAFS. WILL CARRY WINDS OF 25G45KTS AND 1SM +TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES. THEN TRANSITION TO 5SM -TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF -RA WITH OCNL TS FOLLOWS THE SQUALL LINE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE A MIX OF IFR TO VFR. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT. N-NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE AND THEN TURN TO SE-S BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 85 67 83 66 / 30 60 50 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 84 65 82 64 / 30 60 50 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 67 83 66 / 30 60 50 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 65 80 64 / 30 60 50 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 86 68 86 69 / 20 50 60 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 65 81 64 / 30 60 50 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 67 84 67 / 30 50 50 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 84 67 82 66 / 30 60 50 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 85 68 83 67 / 30 60 60 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 85 68 83 68 / 30 60 50 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 68 84 68 / 30 50 50 40 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CURRENTLY MOVG SE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX
OVERNIGHT. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING THE LRD TAF SITE
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z WITH VCT AROUND 07Z-10Z AND ALI/CRP 08Z-11Z.
ACTUALLY PUT LONGER TIMES IN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE SLOWING
OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG/SVR OR WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARD
THE COASTAL BEND AND VCT CROSSROADS. RESIDUAL -SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY MID MORNING OR SO WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME THROUGH FRI EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL
4 AM CDT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CWA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS PROG THAT THE
LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY
EXPANDING THE WATCH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 73 84 71 / 10 30 40 50 20
VICTORIA 74 86 72 83 69 / 20 40 50 50 30
LAREDO 75 90 73 88 72 / 10 30 40 40 10
ALICE 74 88 72 86 70 / 10 30 40 50 10
ROCKPORT 78 84 75 82 74 / 20 30 40 50 20
COTULLA 72 88 71 85 69 / 20 40 50 40 10
KINGSVILLE 76 88 73 86 71 / 10 30 30 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 84 76 81 75 / 10 30 30 40 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TE/81...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1154 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MULTILAYERED LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AT BRO. THE EVENING SOUNDING GOES ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OR AT LEAST
LIFTING ABOVE MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESUME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AT THIS TIME I
AM PREDICTING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WITH THIS LINE. THESE WIND
ESTIMATES COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE LINE ACCELERATES.
ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME I EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE LINE...HOWEVER MORE GENERALIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER 16Z. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...A SOLID LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
IT COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT TRIES TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST.
DUE TO ITS CURRENT SPEED AND EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAINFALL TOTALS
PEAKING UNDER ONE INCH. IF THE COMPLEX DOES NOT MAKE IT OFF THE COAST...
WE COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE
IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN AND AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS.
FOR THE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED EVERYONE`S RAIN CHANCES A GOOD
10% TO 20% FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST
AND CHANCE POPS AT THE COAST. FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES ARE GOING TO DEPEND
HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. SIMILAR TO
TODAY THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 85 70 83 67 / 60 50 20 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 71 85 69 / 40 50 20 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 85 76 84 74 / 30 30 20 30 40

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SE MTS...

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ON AREA BURN SCARS. UPPER TROF ACROSS
NORTHERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE TODAY. MEANWHILE...FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO
EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST DEW
POINTS WILL FALL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...RESULTING IN A NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S...TO EVEN AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD CAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
...BUT IS STILL RESPECTABLE. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONGER TODAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SE MTS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS/NRN RATON
RIDGE AREA WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HANG IN.
SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING LAS
ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
CAPE...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO ENVISION THIS
RISK AREA BEING EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT TO INCLUDE THE SE MTS OF
CUSTER...HUERFANO COUNTIES AS WELL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TELLER AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LINGERS INTO THE AFTN. INTERESTINGLY...HRRR
IS STILL AGGRESSIVELY DRYING OUT SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS TELLER COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING THEM DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY 21Z.
GIVEN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT HRRR IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING...AND LEANED FORECAST GRIDS MORE TOWARDS THE UPPER 30 DEW
POINTS TO AROUND 40 THAT THE NAM AND RAP PORTRAY. SO EVEN FOR
TELLER/WRN EL PASO COUNTY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR AS
WELL AS OTHER BURN SCARS IN THE SE MTS...SUCH AS EAST PEAK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE HIT OR MISS...AND COVERAGE DOESN`T LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
CERTAINLY WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORCING FROM
THE TROF COMING IN...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONE OF
THESE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THESE AREAS. LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AT RISK TODAY.

MEANWHILE...ATMOS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH GFS MUCH WETTER FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS VS THE 00Z NAM12. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
GFS...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT IS AT THIS TIME...IT COULD
ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. WILL HANG ON TO POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT COVERAGE IN MODELS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z SAT. THINK BEST FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER 06Z. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE
WARMER CONDITIONS(ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY) IN
COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS(POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER) AS VARYING DEGREES OF
UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

INITIALLY...UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME-
FRAME. THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC REGIME WHEN COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWFA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FAVOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BOTH
DAYS AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED LIS...CAPES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH -4C...1200 J/KG AND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

THEN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN ABOVE
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WITH UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KCOS AND
KPUB STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING -TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KCOS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. CIGS
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR TO MVFR...THOUGH STRONGER STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH +TSRA. BEST
WINDOW FOR -TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL BE FROM 18Z-00Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS AND BANK UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SE
MTS AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE. CIGS IN THESE AREAS
COULD DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY SAT MORNING WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9

PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015

WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

859 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF:

A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REMAINING
HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED
TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA. DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER
IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES CAROLINE AND
TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.

I MAY RAISE TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND.

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9

PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015

WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 859A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
RIP CURRENTS...859A
CLIMATE...859A

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS SOME MORNING CONVECTION
MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL STAY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

WILL MONITOR FORECAST AS SITUATION PLAYS ITSELF OUT. FOR THE
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY WINDS WERE MADE ALONG WITH THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF LEE
COUNTY AROUND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DUE TO A
WILDFIRE IN THE AREA.

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT RSW...WITH OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THE MOST. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE NEAR THE COAST...PIE/TPA/SRQ.

.MARINE...
SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO
SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES THEIR AREA.
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 50 30
FMY 91 71 92 72 / 30 10 50 40
GIF 90 71 91 72 / 20 0 40 20
SRQ 89 71 90 73 / 30 20 40 40
BKV 90 67 91 69 / 20 0 50 30
SPG 88 72 90 75 / 20 20 40 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...20/BARRON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS IN SE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BUT POPS LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
STRONGER CAP TODAY SO NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST...AND
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
87

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
DESPITE INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PREVENTING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SEVERAL WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER TEXAS. A
WEAKER WAVE IS RIPPLING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL APPROACH ILLINOIS LATE IN THE
DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING GRADUALLY ARRIVES, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY INHIBIT
INSTABILITY, SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION. AS
A RESULT, OPTED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO GO WITH SCATTERED
WORDING TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARRIVES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN IL HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. BMI IS
THE ONLY TERMINAL SITE REPORTING MVFR FOG, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVED
TO VFR BY 14Z. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING, WITH A BREAK IN
STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONS MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN
SSE AND SSW AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF ENERGY PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS.

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER A
TERMINAL LOCATION.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

655 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER A
TERMINAL LOCATION.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREA OF MARINE
STRATUS MOVING SWWD THRU THE GULF OF ME THIS AFTERNOON. NARRE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS THIS REACHING COASTAL ZONES BY 22-00Z.
LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON LOW CIGS BY 16Z...AND BRINGS
THESE INTO THE COAST SLIGHTLY EARLIER...21Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. HOWEVER HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LOWERING DEW POINTS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A RETURN OF FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THIS STRONG FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARDS THE COASTLINE WITH TIME.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
MONDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION FOR LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY. HOWEVER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
GREEN UP SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE DANGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

944 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
933 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION PER THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON W/MOISTURE TUCKED IN AT 850MBS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUCH AS SB CAPE OF
400-700 JOULES AND 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5C/KM. THIS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY ABOVE THE 850MBS LAYER. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWS A SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIFT N W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS OF 25 DBZ SHOWING UP
W/THE BOUNDARY. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CURRENT PACKAGE OF KEEPING
THINGS DRY. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

617 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A LOW CONFIDENCE SET OF TAFS THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA. NO MODEL HAS REALLY PICKED UP WELL ON ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING...WHICH MAKES IT HARD TO BELIEVE
THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THE HRRR HAS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORCING. WITH THESE TAFS...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WITH THE THUNDER IS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLOW
IN GENERATING ACTIVITY ALL NIGHT...SO DID SPEED UP ARRIVAL SOME AT
MSP/RNH/EAU. BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NODAK INTO NW MN. THIS BAND WILL WORK DOWN
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED THE SREF MVFR
CIG PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TIMING THESE CIGS IN AND OUT OF TAFS.
OTHER AREA OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE START OF THE TAFS IS WITH THE
WINDS. BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED
IN WINDS BEING A BIT VARIABLE UNTIL BECOMING NW QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

KMSP...AM CONFIDENT IT WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CIGS DIP UNDER 017
AS THE FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH...WITH TIMING BACK TO VFR TONIGHT ON
THE LATER AS OPPOSED TO THE EARLIER SIDE OF THE TIMING ENVELOP.
ALSO HAVE TRICKY TIMING FOR CHANGING OF WINDS THAT WILL REQUIRE A
RUNWAY SWAP THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LGT AND VRB FROM 14
TO 17Z BEFORE NW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED AFTER 18Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

909 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE BIG HORN FOOTHILLS
THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OR MIST OCCURRING JUST WEST
OF BILLINGS. SO OVERALL...I REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT OVER THE BIG
HORNS VICINITY...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO BILLINGS FOR THOSE
FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. REDUCED SKY COVER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFINED AREAS OF
MORNING FOG PER SURFACE OBS. BT

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF
KBIL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...WITH OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 047/078 053/083 056/082 054/078 051/072 050/072
2/W 02/T 32/T 23/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 065 045/073 051/079 053/077 048/071 046/067 043/070
2/T 24/T 43/T 25/T 45/T 44/T 33/T
HDN 066 046/080 052/084 055/086 054/079 052/074 050/076
1/B 02/T 32/T 25/T 42/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 063 045/077 053/081 058/085 057/078 054/073 052/074
0/U 02/T 42/T 23/T 43/T 43/T 23/T
4BQ 062 044/076 054/081 057/084 057/078 054/073 051/074
0/B 01/B 22/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 060 039/068 046/077 053/082 054/076 051/073 049/073
0/B 01/N 42/T 22/T 32/T 44/T 33/T
SHR 061 042/076 049/079 053/080 052/075 048/070 046/071
2/W 12/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 43/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

710 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR OF
JUST 0.50 OF AN INCH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY...WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. QUASI
STNRY FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH INTO PENN TODAY /FIRST INTO THE WRN MTNS...WHERE PWATS
WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT
12Z....VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.

AS MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME...AND BECOME
MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 20-01Z SATURDAY.

WITH 6 KM BULK SHEAR UNDER 20KTS...AND THE SHEAR PROFILE FAIRLY
LINEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 3-18KFT AGL LAYER...MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF TSRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.

BRIEF MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSRA ACROSS OUR
WRN TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION /SHRA AND TSRA/ MAKING IT A KELZ TO KUNV AND KHGR LINE
AROUND 00Z SAT...THEN FIZZLING OUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH PWAT AIR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TSRA
WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 04Z SATURDAY.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...IN THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND JUST WEST OF THE
SUSQ VALLEY

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA LATE SAT NW...AND SAT NIGHT CENTRAL AND SE PA.

SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LAMBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

933 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPDATED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND THE HRRR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOON
AND 2PM/16-18Z. NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS IN ORDER TODAY WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE FEED ON SE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. FOCUS AGAIN OTHER THAN FOR
OROGRAPHICS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW LOOKS WEAK WITH ONLY A FAINT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH TO HELP WITH ADDED FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT
FASTER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE PROGGED OVER THE VA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WHERE CLOSER TO THE RESIDUAL FRONT. IN
ADDITION...GOOD POOLING OF HIGHER 85H THETA-E PROGGED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN SE FLOW...BUT MORE DRYING
SE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE COAST WORKS TO THE NW. THUS WILL
BUMP UP TO A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WEST-NW BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN
COMBO OF MOISTURE...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND PROGGED CAPES OF 1-2K
J/KG LATER ON. OTRW MAINLY MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FAR SE. WEAK STEERING AGAIN UNDER HIGH
PWATS SUGGESTS MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER PULSE NATURE CELLS PER SOME DRYING ALOFT
SEEN ON FORECAST RAOBS. KEPT TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS
EAST WHERE EXPECT LESS CONVECTION AFTER EARLY ISOLATED SHRA
FADE...WHILE TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MAV VALUES BLUE
RIDGE...AND POINTS NORTH GIVEN SE FLOW AND ANTICIPATED BETTER
SHOWER COVERAGE.

MODELS SUGGEST SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH NW THIS EVENING AS
BETTER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK SINKING MOTION TO
ADVECT OVER MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
ANY EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY NW. HOWEVER PENDING AFTERNOON
COVERAGE...WILL LEAVE IN SOME DECENT CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS TO INIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE CUTTING BACK TO JUST PC INCLUDING SOME PATCHY FOG LATE.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT LIKELY NOT QUITE AS MUGGY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY SATURDAY GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR SEEN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND N.
FLORIDA LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE LARGE ATLANTIC HIGH. AS
A RESULT...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SFC FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...HIGHER PWAT AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST LOCATION
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM MUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF. INCREASING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING
INCREASED COVERAGE IN PRECIP TO THE REGION...AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THEREFORE PUSHED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE TO NEAR LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPS COULD AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. BUMPED UP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL PUSH
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...LEAVING BEST CONVERGENCE
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA
AND LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT
SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT
AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE
WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS
WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE
STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOG REMAINS QUITE SPOTTY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
LOWER VSBYS RANGING FROM MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS NEAR THE TAF SITES TO
UNLIMITED VSBY UNDER MID DECK IN OTHERS. MAY STILL SEE FOG DRIFT
ACROSS ANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF
BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE-FEW HOURS LATER OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES. SINCE APPEARS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT THE WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...KEPT A PREVAILING MVFR SHRA GROUP WITH
VCTS MENTION AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB THIS AFTERNOON...AND LEFT IN VCTS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDAN WHERE THINK CHANCES ARE LESS WITHIN
THE SE FLOW.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER ALONG THE KBLF-KLWB CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME LINGERING MVFR IN SHRA OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING BEFORE ALL
BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR IN SCTD/BKN STRATO-CU AND MID DECK. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THIS
SUPPORTS MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH
ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING KROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PERHAPS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER
CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAY SEE
ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WHILE LOWER
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1137 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SE MTS...

MEANWHILE...ATMOS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

THEN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA
VICINITY OF KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR
TO MVFR...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AND BANK UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SE MTS AND NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE. CIGS IN THESE AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY BY SAT MORNING WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...INCLUDING KALS...TSRA
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...PETERSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

318 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
...AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
...BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9

PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015

WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9

PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015

WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015 AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN PLACE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ILLINOIS TONIGHT...BRINGING ENHANCED FORCING AND A GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. BASED ON RAPID REFRESH FORECAST...HAVE
INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS AT KPIA AND KSPI BY
03Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 08Z. WILL GIVE EACH TAF SITE A
10-HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY VCSH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW VFR CEILINGS INITIALLY...LOWERING TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD/ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD...THEN WILL BECOME
W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

444 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.

HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH IT WARMS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLE WELL ON THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH
SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MODELS DO NOT START OUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE NAM WAS DOING
THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO WARM. OVERALL THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO VERY DEEP DRY LAYER WITH ONLY THE VERY LOW LEVELS
HAVING ANY MOISTURE. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.

RETURN FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.
MODELS HINTING AT...MAINLY THE NAM...ABOUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADING IN CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE
FAR EAST WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE BEST COOLING
CONDITIONS THERE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING IN WITH SOME MINOR
HEIGHT RISES.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE
EAST OF IT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW
MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT. DURING THE
NIGHT MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CINH...WITH THE WEAKEST CAP LATER IN THE
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP THE IT
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL HAVE HIGH SILENT POPS. WILL
KEEP HIGH SILENT/DRY POPS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLS WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY OR NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND DIRECTION DOES
NOT BECOME DOWNSLOPE EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR WEST. NEWER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LITTLE WARMER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WILL USE
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE IN MAKING THOSE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE
NIGHT...DOES LOOK LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS.

MONDAY...LEE TROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND IS RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALOFT THE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING RATHER WARM BUT
BREAKABLE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. STORM MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW. AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST.

NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL HINDER THE WARMUP A
LITTLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN WARMER. CONSIDERING THAT PLUS
RECENT RAINS...WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENS/AMPLIFIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH A PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE/SOME BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KMCK BUT CONDITIONS WILL
COME CLOSE TO MVFR AS CIGS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE THRESHOLD. KGLD
WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KGLD AND KMCK BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TONIGHT:

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HRRR AND ARW GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION
TOWARDS 06Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS DESCRIBED BY THE NAM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS SOLUTION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN AND INSTABILITY BECOMES
MEDIOCRE TO NON-EXISTENT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
CAPE IS MARGINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL STORMS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER
AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE.

TOMORROW:

A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH POPS AT ZERO
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. EXPECTING
VALUES IN THE 68-71F RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
BY DUSK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN A QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER-WISE DURING
THE FIRST FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. EAST OF THE
TROUGH, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN.

BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HOLDS TROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR EVENING AND NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE FOCUSED MORE OVER NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
REMAIN BETTER CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, KEEPING
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY, THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CIGS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE STRATUS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
MID MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS KHYS. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED CB/VCTS
GROUPS IN THE TAF FOR 00Z-03Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK, SO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE N/NE 5-15 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 70 48 77 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 51 69 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 51 70 52 83 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 52 71 50 80 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 52 69 46 77 / 40 0 0 0
P28 55 71 49 77 / 40 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1241 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SO...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DECENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE MID LAYER SUBSIDENCE...LACK OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND GFS SOLUTION TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ADVECTS
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY. EVEN THE
GFS HINTS AT A DRY LINE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES EAST OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE...MENTIONED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE DECENT
ASCENT...SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS. MID LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT CAPES AGAIN WILL BE HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT & AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SOME COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO 18C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BASED ON THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEAN FLOW WILL OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A DOWN
SLOPE FLOW TO IMPROVE. THIS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND
MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER.

BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE ROCKIES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE DAY AND THIS WILL RISE
TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 53 70 51 / 20 30 0 10
GCK 76 51 69 52 / 20 20 0 10
EHA 76 51 70 55 / 20 20 0 10
LBL 78 52 71 53 / 20 20 0 10
HYS 77 52 69 49 / 40 40 0 10
P28 80 55 71 52 / 20 40 0 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

633 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED. SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

154 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER
MONTHS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BROAD
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.

AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NOW LOOK MAINLY DRY
AND A LITTLE COOLER. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COOLER.
POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDER. LINGERING
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST
INTO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGHS RETREATS TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
COME A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL INCH BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIURNAL CIG BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES POSSIBLE. AFTER NIGHTFALL...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM WORKS MID BASED CIGS INTO/ACROSS
AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OFFER MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE...OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE NEARING FRONT TO AGAIN INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS/VICINITY THUNDER MENTIONED EARLY AND BECOMING
PREVALANT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

139 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST T/TD OBS
AND RADAR IMAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS.

/VII/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 82 66 81 / 60 60 40 40
MLU 69 84 67 82 / 60 60 40 50
DEQ 67 79 64 78 / 60 60 30 20
TXK 68 81 65 79 / 60 60 30 30
ELD 69 82 66 80 / 60 60 40 40
TYR 69 81 65 80 / 60 60 40 20
GGG 69 82 66 80 / 60 60 40 30
LFK 70 85 67 83 / 40 60 40 40

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

VII/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE.

CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING 5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

319 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE MARINE STRATUS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE COAST. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT DEPICTION BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. LEANING
HEAVILY ON THE NARRE AND HRRR FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COASTAL ME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPWM WILL SEE
STRATUS SOONEST...WITH ALL COASTAL AREAS LIKELY SEEING LOW CIGS BY
00Z. THRU THE NIGHT THIS WILL CREEP INLAND...AND SHOULD ROUGHLY
MATCH THE CURRENT SEA BREEZE FRONT OUTLINE. WINDS SHIFTING TO SWLY
WILL KEEP STRATUS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE GREAT BAY AREA AND E IN
SERN NH...WHILE ALLOWING IT TO PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG AND KWVL
IN CENTRAL ME.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOW CLOUDS...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER IN FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT THIS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS AGGRESSIVE ON
VSBYS BELOW 1/2 SM...WHILE NARRE IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR.
SREF VSBYS PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT FOR LESS THAN
1 SM VSBY POINT TOWARDS SOME FOG MORE LIKELY THAT NOT. SO WILL
HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SAT. THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IT WILL DELAY IN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. SREF
CALIBRATED SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES PEAK AROUND 21Z ACROSS THE
FAR NRN ZONES. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIR ACROSS THIS AREA...SO WILL
ADD GUSTY WINDS TO THESE ZONES...AND DELAY TSTMS FOR COAST UNTIL
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND SLOW FRONTAL
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH TRAINING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME WATER
ISSUES. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP ANY STORMS TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED...BUT A RENEWAL OF DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY SUN AS THE DAY HEATS UP AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAY OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS COMING
TO AN END IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DENSE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY SOUTH HOWEVER AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT. LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOL (MID 50S)
WHILE MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN CLEARS OUT AND WARMS INTO THE
UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE 60S.

THE PROXIMITY OF OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS A STEADY
STREAM OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY TO BE HAD BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHTNING OFFSHORE. FOLLOWING THIS A STOUT CUTOFF SHORT WAVE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS AS MARINE STRATUS INVADES THE AREA. BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z
MOST SITES SHOULD BE IFR OR LOWER. KAUG MAY TAKE A COUPLE EXTRA
HOURS FOR LOW CIGS TO WORK INLAND...BUT BY 03Z IFR IS EXPECTED.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. GUSTY SW WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT
INTO SUN FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSTMS IS FOR
KHIE SAT EVENING.

LONG TERM...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT. COOL WATERS SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT BY LATE
SAT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER.

LONG TERM...WAVES DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
SEAS RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WETTING RAINS SUNDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

LEGRO/HANES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING IN SW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN MN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NRN STREAM 110 KNOT 250-300 JET OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA
FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CYQT-KMSP. WITH LITTLE MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE ONLY OCNL ISOLD LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED WITH THE SHOWERS
FROM NWN WI THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY 00Z/SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE JET RIGHT ENTRANCE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UNLESS ISOLD LARGER
PCPN AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK S CNTRL...RIVER RISES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
KEEPING LEVELS BLO FLOOD THRESHOLD. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE NW DURING
THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER...A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD TURN
ACTIVE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA TO SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID 20S AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS. GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
COMING OVERHEAD WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.20 INCH AND AFTN DWPNTS
ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AT THE LOWEST...ALL BUT
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WILL SEE TEMPS BLO 30 DEGREES. COLD
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN GRIDS/EHWO/HWO AND FORECAST FOR MANY
DAYS. COORD WITH GRB AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL SAT MORNING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
STILL ONGOING TONIGHT.

COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS INLAND ONLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE WINDS. HIGH IS STILL NEARBY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PWATS ARE JUST AS LOW AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING AND FROST/FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR. LIKELY
LOOKING AT MORE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

TROUGHING ALOFT IN VCNTY ON MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN
SUNDAY. AIRMASS STAYS DRY SO NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDS OR SHRA. AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH REST OF THE LONG
TERM A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. HIGHS ON MONDAY A TOUCH BLO NORMAL...
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S WEST AND AS COOL AS THE 50S NEAR GREAT
LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES DOMINATE. PWATS STILL BLO 0.30 INCHES ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AND THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY...SO COULD
SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST. STARTED A
COOLER TREND BY GOING WITH MID TEMPS IN THE MID 30S IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP
WEST AND GREAT LAKES SHORES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST AND ONLY AS COOL AS THE LOW 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES.

SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CHILLY NIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
SPILL ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
WOULD COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPS /MID-UPR 70S/ AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO BRING SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO UPR MICHIGAN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MORE ENERGIZED WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND DURING THAT TIME...PATTERN IS ONE
THAT COULD BE WARM AND HUMID AND ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA
SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS
OFF THE GFS RISE UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TODAY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOWER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

424 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN WORK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FA NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST. SHRA/TSRA LIMITED O MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT INTO
THE EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING KMSP FOR A COUPLE HOURS...AND
EXITING TO KEAU THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
TIMING OF LOWER CLOD TRENDS INTO THE EVENING. LAGGING UPPER
TROUGH COULD CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OVER
CENTRAL MN...THEN REFORMING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL BREAK OUT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN MN THROUGH ABOUT
04Z...THEN REMAINING VFR INTO WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY SEE VFR
DEVELOP THROUGH THE 12Z-14Z PERIOD THERE. CONFIDENT ON VFR
FORECAST OVER MN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND INTO WESTERN
WI BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING AND
GUSTING TO 25 KTS OVER THE WEST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND
GUTS DEVELOPING INTO THE EAST THROUGH 00Z SAT. SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TREND OF THUNDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
LOWER MVFR CIGS/-SHRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FROPA WINDS
BECOMING NORTH AND GUSTY TO 22KTS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH 04Z SAT...WITH LAYERED CLOUDS
EXITING AFTER 06Z. WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 06Z AND
BECOME GUTSY AFTER 14Z SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 G20KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL SUMMER-LIKE
SHEAR VALUES AND A SFC THERMAL RIDGE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
LINING UP GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER TO I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE UPPER DELTA
REGION...AND ALSO ONE APPROACHING THE PINE BELT REGION FROM THE
COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. MULTITUDE
OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED TO DEPICT FAIRLY
HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE FOREACST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE
IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING OVER SE AR/NE LA REGARDING
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP
IN A MORE ORGANIZED FASHION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. /EC/

A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEING NOTED ON RADAR AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRUOGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS. IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. /28/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY
THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WAS MOVING EAST AND A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD HELP
PROLONG CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE CURRENTLY SILENT OVER OUR CWA
BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY PWATS OVER THE WHOLE CWA WILL BE
BACK UP AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND HELP SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOME
UNCERTAINTY IS AGAIN CREEPING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS SHIFT
DUE TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL RUN COMING WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKE ON THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS
TROUGH ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER TOP OF OUR REGION AND SWIRLING
OVERHEAD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THIS SOLUTION
BUT THE MENTIONED EURO IDEA REDUCES CONFIDENCE AND SUGGESTS SOME
CHANCE THAT PROLONGED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MIGHT SHIFT EAST OF
OUR REGION FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

BUT AT LEAST THESE UNCERTAINTIES WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY TO SHOW UP
IN THE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON) IS PRETTY HIGH. WE DEBATED THROWING IN
MENTION OF LIMITED SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
FOR SUNDAY...BUT IN THE END WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF A BIT LONGER
SINCE THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION STILL WEAKENS WIND SHEAR AND GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUITE A BIT AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM SHIFT EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS. OF COURSE HIGH INSTABILITY CAN YIELD SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITHOUT REQUIRING MUCH WIND SHEAR...BUT IN THIS CASE MODEST LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR MORNING TO MIDDAY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. OF COURSE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS TO BE ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ONE TO INCHES OF RAINFALL...SO
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HEART OF THE
REGION TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING IN SOME LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY REPOSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED AXES OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD FUEL THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCTION EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SOME STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BACK WEST INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS WELL ON MONDAY...BUT
THIS PROSPECT COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH
ITS LATEST PROGRESSIVE TAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BE IMPACTED A GREAT
DEAL IF THIS TROUGH IS INDEED PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET-
LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO OUR EAST. IN THAT CASE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES COULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY REPRESENTS (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55) WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND WARMER. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION OF TROUGH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD STILL ARGUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HOPEFULLY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
MODEL CONSENSUS WILL STRENGTHEN REGARDING SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. /BB/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

950 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY
AS INDICATED IN THE INHERITED GRIDS AND AS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EVEN WARMER (MAYBE HOTTER DEPENDING ON YOUR TAKE) IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY THEN GETS PUSHED EAST ON SUNDAY BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. WE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER MAV FOR HIGH TEMPS WHICH PUTS LAS VEGAS AT THE FIRST
TRIPLE DIGITS OF THE YEAR AT MCCARRAN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT
HIGH TEMPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON SUNDAY IN LAS VEGAS (RECORD IS 104
SET IN 2002). OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY AROUND BARSTOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THOUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...STEELE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND

252 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. DESPITE WEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS TOWARD THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER OREGON AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC AT ABOUT 150W 37N.
UNDER FLOW OUT OF THE W TO NW...MARINE STRATUS AT THE COAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING ONLY SLIGHTLY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY AND
BUILDING CUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH IT`S LIMITED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CREST.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES. MODELS DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB PIN-POINTING THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT YESTERDAY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE
DISAGREEMENT TODAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OVERZEALOUS WITH
INSTABILITY AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NOW ACTIVITY
WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST
STORM MOTION WHICH WOULD CARRY ANYTHING TOWARD THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CREST...WILL DECREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BUT LEAVE THEM MENTIONABLE.

FOR SAT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PAC GRADUALLY MIGRATES EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WITH DEEPER WLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS STILL INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. MODEL FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS EASE ABOUT A DEGREE SAT...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL IN THE 80S INLAND.

THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SUN. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST
THROUGH THE GORGE SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SUN
AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS SUN AS MODELS NOT SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN EVENING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND 12Z NAM
IS BEGINNING TO GET ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA...BUT OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED THUNDER THREAT TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE VALLEY.
BOWEN/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT THE BASE
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE
REGION. THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
CASCADES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO GENERALLY BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT MODELS
SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW.
WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS LOW CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF CENTERS THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHICH WOULD ENABLE SOME RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE GIVEN THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BRIEFLY LIFTED TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST...
COULD STILL SEE SOME CLOUD BREAKS THROUGH 00Z SAT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO RETURN BY 01Z-03Z SAT...DROPPING TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT. VFR INLAND NEXT 24 HRS UNDER DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE MARINE STRATUS IMPACT
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN AFTER 10Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
/27

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NW TO W WINDS
WILL CONTINUE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /27

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND

908 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE VALLEYS AND
UP THE COLUMBIA TO WEST OF PORTLAND. SW WINDS IN THE SOUTH VALLEY
AROUND EUGENE HAVE BROUGHT SOME MARINE AIR IN THERE AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IN THE NORTH VALLEY
THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH MORNING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGHS OR IF MIXING WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR ONCE SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IF MIXING PLAYS THE LARGER
ROLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES JUST LIKE YESTERDAY INLAND. ALONG THE
COAST...STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A SMIDGE IN
THE NORTH VALLEY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DOWN A
SMIDGE IN THE NEWPORT AREA TOWARD YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CASCADES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS INCREDIBLY
GUNG HO WITH CAPE BUT TO AN UNREALISTIC EXTENT. THE GFS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE BUT AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH THE FACT THAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR TSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TSTORM FORECAST FOR
NOW BUT TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT 12Z MODELS AND UPDATES FROM THE HRRR AND
RUC. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS 500 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N
125W TO A 577 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 50N 140W. ALSO OF NOTE IS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE
OUT AROUND 40N 150W. THIS LATTER LOW IS THE ONE THAT WILL BECOME A
PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH. KKLS REPORTED OVC CONDITIONS AROUND
07Z...SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE NAM AND HI-RES ARW SUGGEST MARINE
STRATUS WILL COME DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND FILL IN WRN CLARK
COUNTY IN SW WA BY 12Z. THE KAST-KDPX GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AT 08Z...2.1 MB...COMPARED TO 08Z THU. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
WARMER INTERIOR RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC PRES. MODEL FORECAST
850 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO THU...MAYBE UP A DEGREE INLAND.
THUS...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BASED ON THU
VALUES. TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 AT KPDX...IF WE
HIT THE FCST HIGH OF 85.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES. MODELS DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB PIN-POINTING THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT FOR THU...ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. 06Z MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A
POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SOUNDING GIVES AN IMPRESSIVE 2800
J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE...WITH A ML CAPE NEAR 1450 J/KG. AGAIN...
BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVER-DOING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE GFS
HAS A ML CAPE OF 500 J/KG. GFS 700 MB THETA E RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE OREGON CASCADE CREST 00Z SAT. A LITTLE LOWER THETA E VALUES IN
THE S WA CASCADES COMPARED TO THU. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT JUST A BIT MORE W...BUT STILL KEEPING IT IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND NOT THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR SAT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PAC GRADUALLY MIGRATES EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WITH DEEPER WLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS STILL INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES COOLING SAT...BUT NOT SURE TO BELIEVE THAT.
MODEL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS EASE ABOUT A DEGREE...BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WARMER START AM EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO FRI VALUES.

THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SUN. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST
THROUGH THE GORGE SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SUN
AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS SUN AS MODELS NOT SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN EVENING. ALSO RAISED INLAND MAX
TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION ANYWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST AND STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE N-NE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND MODELS SUGGESTING H8 TEMPS DECREASING AROUND 10 DEG C BY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK MUCH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY ENHANCE THIS
POTENTIAL AT TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CASCADES SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SHOWERS END AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDING FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER REACHED KKLS THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF BY 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO HAVE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FROM KSLE THROUGH KEUG TO K61S...AND IN
CASCADES TIL 17Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. ROCKEY/27

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH W TO NW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT. ROCKEY.

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

233 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEGUN TO
POP. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND SPREADING SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LAURELS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY. MESO ANAL INDICATES DECREASING
STABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS.

MADE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REGION-WIDE.

THREATS PAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
1/2 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE BIGGEST RETURN IN
MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN THE PWAT ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WAVE IS
PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO
1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...AND CERTAINLY THIS SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT
MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN.

TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING
THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO
EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY
WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEGUN TO
POP. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND SPREADING SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LAURELS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY. MESO ANAL INDICATES DECREASING
STABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS.

MADE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REGION-WIDE.

ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AXIS SETTING UP BEST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW SO THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED THUS FAR TODAY. THEREFORE...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BACK TO THE WEST...WILL LOWER
POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

OTW...TEMPS STILL ON TRACK. READINGS ARE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE
AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYTIME BUT WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WORKED NORTH FROM ALABAMA EARLIER IN THE EVENING
HAVE DISSIPATED. AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHEAST
IN GENERAL REMAINS QUITE MOIST BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME
DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE. 07Z ANALYSIS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOWING A NARROW 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA UP INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLATEAU. AM HARD
PRESSED TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BUT
THE LEAST LITTLE WIGGLE THAT COMES ALONG ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. FOR NOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
BE THE ONLY PLAYER WHEN IT COMES TO PROVIDING THE NEEDED LIFT
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

CURRENTLY THERE IS COLD FRONT OVER DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE THIS WAY
AND BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HANG UP ACROSS
OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RAMP UP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MID STATE WILL
COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB TO > 1000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH.

WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH 7 DAY QPF TOTALS
NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE MID STATE. GOOD BERMUDA GRASS GROWING WEATHER.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO OHIO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ANY FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTH.

IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE SAME LOCATION HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN PUTTING
IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 07/3AM THROUGH NOON/17Z
SATURDAY.

SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD IN MORE PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEST. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE THAN SIMPLY DIURNALLY
BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL GAIN INCREASED JET DYNAMICS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY IN THE KBLF TAF WHERE STORMS WERE
DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS IN UNTIL
03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. SPC HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER
01Z/9PM THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEFT. BEST
PROBABILITY THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER WILL IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 03Z/11PM.

LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR
IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A MAJORITY
OF THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY...AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.

MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
DAYS TO BE VFR.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

148 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY SATURDAY GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
DAYS TO BE VFR.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HELP FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AREAS WHERE ML CAPES ARE
BUILDING TO GREATER THAN 400 J/KG. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER N-C WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL QUICK INCH OF RAIN. WITH
A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...PRECIP TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A
MINIMUM OF SHEAR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET...AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 WILL
LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN WITH SOME INTERACTION
FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY LEADS ME TO THINK THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE A WIDESPREAD
INCH...LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...COULD FALL.
ELSEWHERE...A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH LOOKS REASONABLE. NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES
IN. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY THE START
OF SATURDAY MORNING...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL BE HANGING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THERE FOR THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER EXITING
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 21Z. AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS. WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE POTENTIAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.

THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
HOURS. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND H850 TEMPS LESS
THAN +2 C PROVIDE A LIKELY SCENARIO OF FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AFTER DEALING WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION.
AIR MASS MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME FROST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED TO SHIFT A BIT MORE EAST. RETURN FLOW 850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERN SECTIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SO
HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST. PROGS IN
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SUBSIDING AND A RETURN TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PCPN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD RIGHT ALONG AND
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RAIN INTENSITY INCREASES...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
CIGS FALLING TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOST RIVERS LEVELS PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT
WERE MAINLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. AN ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL REVERSE THAT TREND
WITH SOME RIVERS LIKELY RISING TO NEAR FS AND PERHAPS A FEW
EXCEEDING INTO THE MINOR FS LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HIGHER 2 INCHES AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH
RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OR POST FRONTAL REGION...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO EMBEDDED STORMS.

TDH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...INTO EASTERN NEB. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...FOCUS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV-
ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...EXITING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAP MODEL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/700-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING 700-500MB LAPSE RATES GOING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
RATES WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAND/BOG COUNTRY AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THAT AREA...AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD/THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
70-75 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY SEE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPE SLOWLY
INCREASES. NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. FOR
KRST...THE 29.15Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST
00Z WHILE THE 29.12Z HI-RES ARW IS A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER. GIVEN
THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST...WILL LEAD TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER ARW AND SHOW A CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z. AS
THE ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS EAST...THE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
KLSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
STORMS WILL END WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH...CEILINGS SHOULD THEN COME DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT KRST TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING - MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL...MESO MODELS ALL POINT TO AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS
AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO.

TO THE WEST...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF A SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT OBVIOUSLY HAS ENOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POP SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NAM BUILDS ABOUT 1 K
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST AT
NEARLY TWICE THAT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED AS MORNING CONVECTION EXITS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER. IF
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN DO RESULT IN GFS-ESQUE LIKE VALUES...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SKINNY PROFILE TO CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP/STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MEAGER...MOSTLY POST THE FRONT...AND IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER.
OVERALL...NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS...BUT UNLESS STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND OVERLAPS WITH
THE MARGINAL SHEAR MORE...THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH BUILD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFYING IT AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WOULD SERVE TO SHUFFLE MOST BITS OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH WEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR THIS RIPPLE IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WHICH IS MINIMAL VIA RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A SFC HIGH IS SLATED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ALL THIS MIND...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH WED...HOLDING ONTO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CLOSEST TO ANY FORCING. CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVES SMALL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU/THU NIGHT. DON/T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT
PER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS FORECAST
FOR THE MOMENT. CAVEAT TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS...IF THE
RIDGE ISN/T QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...COOL AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 14 C THIS
MORNING...TO 4 C BY 00Z SUN. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP STANDARD ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY 0 TO -1 SAT/SUN...SO ITS NOT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP US A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATE MAY
NORMALS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND FOR THE START OF JUNE...WITH SOME 80S LOOKING LIKELY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04