Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/28/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

849 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ONLY LIMITED
WARMING AS AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:36 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORNING DRIZZLE IN MANY
AREAS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH REPORTED AT
VARIOUS SITES. MARINE LAYER ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AROUND 1000 FEET. WEAK TROF
INLAND CONTINUING TO DISRUPT MARINE LAYER WITH SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS IN MONTEREY BAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND
AND ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE. UPDATED SKY GRID FOR TODAY TO BETTER
REFLECT SHORT TERM CONDITIONS.

MORNING TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY 50S IN
VALLEYS AND BAY AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY...THEN INTERIOR WARMING TREND COMMENCES WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS ALONG COAST AND LOW LATITUDE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
EJECTS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
RIDGING WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH COASTAL NW WINDS INCREASING SOMEWHAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED TO EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...BROKEN RECORD FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THROUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA. FORT ORD
PROFILER ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AND IS AROUND
3000 FEET. WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON WE WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. IN
FACT...24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE RIGHT NOW HAS VIRTUALLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN A DEGREE. WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS AT MANY COASTAL
LOCATIONS HANGING THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMER IS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A NEARLY
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH SST VALUES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL KEEP COASTAL SPOTS COOL. EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHT WARMING...ALL PLACES SHOULD STILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FEWER CLOUDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE DOWN TO THE COAST. AFTER MULTIPLE GREY
DAYS...THAT WOULD BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY PEOPLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE 850 MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER PLUS MUCH WARMER INLAND TEMPS.
STILL NO SIGNS OF AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SO COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
MUCH LESS WARMING. BY FRIDAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AT THE COAST
MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. IN OTHER WORDS..A
MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH SO THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KICK THE LOW TO
THE EAST WHILE THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK DOES SHOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING
TO OUR AREA.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. STRATUS
INTRUSION INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS OBSERVED. BOTH RUC AND WRF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
LEANING TOWARDS EARLIER MIXING OUT OF MARINE DECK THIS MORNING
VERSUS PREVIOUS MORNINGS... WITH SCT POSBL BTWN 18-20Z THIS MORN
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSBL. DRIZZLE
MAY LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18 TO 20Z WITH VFR/SCT THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED PER LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MVFR CIGS
RETURN 03-04Z WED. ONSHORE FLOW AOA 15 KT. SPOTTY DRIZZLE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO TERMINAL...EXCEPT CLEARING FROM
THE SOUTH A BIT EARLIER ON TUESDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY DRIZZLE POSBL THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN PACIFIC IS LEADING TO PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS AND LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FROM MIDWEEK
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: BLIER
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

439 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...BROKEN RECORD FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THROUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA. FORT ORD
PROFILER ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AND IS AROUND
3000 FEET. WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON WE WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. IN
FACT...24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE RIGHT NOW HAS VIRTUALLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN A DEGREE. WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS AT MANY COASTAL
LOCATIONS HANGING THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO... MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18 TO 20Z WITH VFR/SCT THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED PER LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MVFR CIGS
RETURN 03-04Z WED. ONSHORE FLOW AOA 15 KT. SPOTTY DRIZZLE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO TERMINAL...EXCEPT CLEARING FROM
THE SOUTH A BIT EARLIER ON TUESDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY DRIZZLE POSBL THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BLIER
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

307 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PUSHING INLAND INTO CA IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A NOTICABLE
WARMING TREND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY WERE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MAY ACROSS OUR AREA. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT HAS
PROVIDED FOR INCREASED ONSHORE P-GRADS RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH
GRADIENTS NOW DECREASING...WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD MORNING AND
WE THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.

06Z WRF INDICATING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER
CENTRAL CA KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE WRF IS
INDICATING CAPES AND LI/S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CREST SO SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR 31N/132W
WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST OVER NORTHERN BAJA. OTHERWISE THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
RESULTING IN RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES OVER OUR
AREA AND SUBSEQUENTLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. WRF PROGGED CAPES AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE EACH DAY RESULTING IN LESS POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER SIERRA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS REACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
IN ADDITION...WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A
CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL SHUT OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW BY NEXT
MONDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL BRING HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE P-GRADS...RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND FOR OUR
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS.

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER
18Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:2014 40:1953
KFAT 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998
KFAT 05-28 107:1984 58:1953 69:2009 45:1927

KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
KBFL 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917
KBFL 05-28 107:1973 67:1953 72:2009 43:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

128 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN 0.5 DEGREE SLICES WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE WORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH AT A DECENT CLIP THIS MORNING. ALREADY
SEEING A FEW NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
CELLS TODAY WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL START THE DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACNW VERY SLOWLY STARTS TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT HAVE BEEN FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATING A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH...WITH ALL
THE ABOVE...WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE. CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN AROUND NOONTIME WHEN THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES OVERHEAD FROM
WEST TO EAST THOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO
REACH A MAXIMUM FROM 3PM ONWARDS AS THAT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS. MODELS KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SO FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DROP...AS IT ALWAYS DOES...AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS NRN
ID SO EXPECT ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH
MODELS HINTING AT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE ONLY
REALLY BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE GETTING
CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF JUNE MAY ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE JUNE...BUT THAT IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT A "SNAILS PACE" PREVAILS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH NEEDS ABOUT 2-3 DAYS TO
REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEFORE REACHING WYOMING...PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH SENDS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO COLORADO. THIS HELPS FUEL DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN WYOMING.

THE DRYING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
DRIER DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN DRY AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO COLORADO BY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH EACH PASSING DAY. BY NEXT MONDAY...ANY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE RELEGATED TO THE COLORADO SPINE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR SUMMER ASCENT WITH DESERT VALLEYS
REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AFTER
06Z. EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED AT ALL SITES AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KTS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1142 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER OVER THE PLAINS AND POPS. 12Z NAM IS
SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS EVE OVER THE PLAINS.
COVERAGE IS LIKELY OVERDONE BUT IT HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
PLAINS THIS EVE...SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. ROSE

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CURRENTLY...H5 RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS
MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AS THE
UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS NE AND THE
DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA HAS COME TO AN END. THERE ARE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING...AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A BIT LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HI RES MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST SPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER...SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE OF A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM THIS AFTN AND EVE...POTENTIAL IS LESS TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAIN THREATS OF ANY STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LTG...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MTS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...

WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH SRN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE NRN STREAM CLOSED
LOW SETTLES OVER ID/NW WY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
SRN STREAM TROF WED AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROF
WILL MIX OUT THE DRY LINE EASTWARD INTO THE SE PLAINS. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NAM12 KEEPS LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WHICH KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000+J/KG NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. GIVEN
THE TROFFING STILL BACK TO OUR WEST...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
SOLN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS DAY...AND AREA IS OUTLOOKED WITH A SLIGHT RISK.

FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO HANG ON
PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET PERIOD AS UPPER TROF
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE BRUNT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL BE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE FOR BOTH DAYS...AND WITH
DIFFUSE DRY LINE MIXING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHERE
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES THURS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER...PROBABLY DUE TO MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CRANKS UP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THURS EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THOUGH THE REGION. PIKES PEAK
REGION COULD BE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN/CEN PLAINS FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...A
DEEPER PUSH OF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
LOOK WET AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY
BE HIGHEST THIS DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH GET HIT ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONCEPTUALLY
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND POTENTIALLY CAPPED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SE MTS AND ADJACENT I-25
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT CAPE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS
FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW
DEEP LAYER SHEARS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. MAIN THREAT
LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MON...BUT TRACK APPEARS TO
STAY FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THIS TIME...WHICH PUTS CO UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS GRIDS
WILL CARRY A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. -KT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE TS POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST FROM 22Z-03Z THIS EVE. SOME MODEL FORECASTS ARE
INDICATING TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING PAST 06Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT VCTS. SIMILAR PICTURE
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD EB A BIT STRONGER
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY E OF I-25. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH AT A DECENT CLOP THIS MORNING. ALREADY
SEEING A FEW NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
CELLS TODAY WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

948 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
AFTN/EVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

802 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOCAL BR MAY EXIST ALONG RIVER/VALLEY BOTTOMS THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING (BRIEFLY OBSERVED AT KRIL EARLIER)...BUT ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE FAST AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD FROM THE WEST.

AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WITH LOCALIZED TSRAGS WILL OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...THEN THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LOWERING CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINS FOR MOUNTAINS SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

425 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1112 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A BIT CONCERNED THAT WX MAY GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
INCREASE TO OUR NORTH AND WORK SWD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 7 PM HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS. BELIEVE THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE KDEN AREA AND THIS WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE SE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...BACK TO THE SEVENTIES...

REMEMBER THOSE DAYS? WELL...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND H7 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 7 DEG OR HIGHER TOMORROW...SHOULD GET INTO THE SEVENTIES
TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY NR 80 DEGREES FOR THE WARMEST
SPOTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE GUIDANCE
VALUES...HOWEVER.

REST OF TODAY...MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL AREAS OF 750-1000 CAPE...ESPECIALLY NR THE KS BORDER.
SO...DESPITE MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINALLY STRONG-
SVR STORMS IN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVE.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...WITH THE PASSES CURRENTLY
REPORTING MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ST OFF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MODEST ON TUE...SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LOW. EXTREME
SE CORNER OF THE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME MARGINALLY SVR PARAMETERS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS INDICATING SUPPRESSED CONVECTION
OVR THAT AREA DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING. ENJOY THE SEVENTIES! ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUE NIGHT AND WED...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS AN UPR LOW MOVES INTO ID AND ITS UPR TROF EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TO BAJA CA. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR
THE MTNS TUE EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE REST OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
TEMPS ON WED WL BE AROUND AVERAGE...WHICH IS MOSTLY IN THE 70S OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPR TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WED NIGHT
AND THU...EXTENDING FROM WRN WY INTO AZ BY 00Z FRI. THU LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS AREAS.
FOR FRI A BAGGY TROF WL LIE OVR THE STATE...AND A FRONT WL MOVE THRU
SERN CO. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REALLY MOISTEN UP DURING THE DAY
FRI...WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FRI NIGHT.
TEMPS ON THU SHOULD DROP BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN. THE UPR TROF
AND LOW WL MOVE EAST INTO KS SAT...BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ERN CO ON SAT...WITH THE MTN
AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS HAVING SCT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST
AREA WL THEN HAVE DRIER WX. ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GREAT
BASIN AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVR CO ON MONDAY. THERE WL STILL BE
ENOUGH MSTR AROUND FOR SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

KPUB...

WILL SEE SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE FCST PD...THEN
VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVIER TSRA LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING CIGS/VIS
TO MVFR. VFR EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING.

KCOS AND KALS...

VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR MID TO EARLY EVENING TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG. PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION. WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL. THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH. OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM. SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

502 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

8 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT... UPDATE TO REMOVE THE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT THREAT HEADLINE FROM THE COASTAL ZONES. THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ALL SUGGESTING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...COMING SHORE AS SPRINKLES
THAT MAY REACH WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 FROM BREVARD COUNTY TO MARTIN
COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5
MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST AND AROUND 5 MPH IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...AFT 28/04Z FEW030 INTERIOR SITES...SCT-BKN040 WITH VCSH
KTIX SOUTH AT THE COAST.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FEET JUST OFF THE BEACH PER THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM
BUOY 009 OUT TO BUOY 010. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF`S SUGGESTING
EASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING OUT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE EAST
WINDS OVER A LONG EAST FETCH IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 3 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD (SWELL) SEAS OVERNIGHT.

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)

PREVIOUS AFD

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF 15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 85 70 85 / 10 10 10 30
MCO 71 88 69 88 / 0 10 10 30
MLB 74 85 72 85 / 10 10 20 30
VRB 74 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
LEE 72 90 69 90 / 0 10 10 30
SFB 71 87 67 88 / 0 10 10 30
ORL 71 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 30
FPR 75 86 69 85 / 10 10 20 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

139 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 76 88 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 87 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 77 89 77 88 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 73 92 71 91 / 20 20 20 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 76 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI 89 77 89 77 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 93 73 92 71 / 30 20 20 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

702 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. BOTH THE RAP AND
H3R SHOW THIS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING AFTER SUNSET AS IT INTERSECTS
THE SEA BREEZE LURKING ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND MESOSCALE TRENDS.
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER ELEVATED WITH SBCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WITH DCAPES NEARING 1200 J/K. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LEVEL OF DCAPE
IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR
IN PLACE, WELL- ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM,
ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT SHORT-TERM
CONVECTIVE CONGLOMERATIONS.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN INLAND LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MEET/EXCEED CROSSOVER TEMPS AND
WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...PART OF THE DEEP LAYERED MEAN ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OFF
THE SE COAST WILL GET NUDGED A BIT FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK IMPULSES THAT IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE. UNDERNEATH AT THE SURFACE WE STILL FIND
SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST
ZONES...BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER RIDGE THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. OVERALL THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CAP TO LIMIT HOW MUCH
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
SECTIONS. BUT FURTHER INLAND THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE A LITTLE
BETTER AND THE SUBSIDENCE IS LESS PRONOUNCED. WE HAVE OPTED FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS MAINLY NEAR AND INLAND FROM I-95 FOR THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD WHERE WE FIND THE HIGHEST THETA-E AIR.
THE LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS AT BEST WILL
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WITHIN A SUB-
TROPICAL MARITIME AIR MASS OUR MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONVECTION FAR INLAND WILL FADE
WITHIN THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZING INFLUENCES WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A WEATHER WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG NW TIER WHERE RAINS
OCCURRED EARLIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPS FROM LOWER 60S NORMALLY COOL SPOTS TO 68-72 ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP RIDGING GETS SHUNTED BACK A BIT
FURTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CYCLONE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
SURFACE WAVE CENTERED FAR EAST/NE OF THE BAHAMAS. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...THE LACK OF FORCING AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE SUGGESTS
THAT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY BE 20-30 PERCENT FAR INLAND
THURSDAY AND NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE
FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WEAK CAPPING WILL EXIST FOR THE BRUNT OF THE
PERIOD...ONSHORE MOISTURE FLUX WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING ON TUESDAY SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR MVFR CIGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY AT KCHS. WILL INTRODUCE PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS AT KCHS FROM 09-13Z...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. ATTM
IT APPEARS KSAV WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE KSAV VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS. SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW OF 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT LATE. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT IN THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE 3-4 FT IS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER FLAT BUT ENORMOUS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN IT/S HOLD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...GENERATING
A CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH MINOR SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES WINDS WILL HOLD UNDER 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE A
MIX OF WIND-DRIVEN WAVES AND EVENTUALLY MORE SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EAST-SE FLOW. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOLD AT LESS
THAN OR EQUAL TO 3 OR 4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTROL CONDITIONS LOCALLY AS IT LIES OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES WON/T OBTAIN ANYTHING MORE
THAN 10 OR 15 KT...AND WHILE SWELL ENERGY WILL BECOME MORE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE...SEAS ARE STILL MAINLY 4 FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY SO WE MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK ACROSS CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

603 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT THAT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...THUS HAVE TRENDED THAT DIRECTION IN THE TAF. SOME
LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS SO KEPT OUT MENTION FOR NOW. ANY
LINGERING LOW CIGS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY SO WE MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK ACROSS CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

942 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
916 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO MATCH HOURLY OBS TRENDS.

WEAK SURFACE COLD HAD FRONT CLEARED THE CWA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING... WITH CLEARING SKIES IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONLY A SUBTLE DROP IN DEW
POINT TEMPS INTO THE MID-50S AND FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOTED ACROSS AREA PER METARS...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALREADY
TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IA-WI. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE THAT HAD TURNED NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WERE
ALSO COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH FROM WAUKEGAN NORTHWARD. THUS
EFFECTS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE MINIMAL WITH MILD LOWS NEAR
60 TONIGHT AND WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

OF SOME INTEREST IS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI...
WHICH HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING THEIR STRENGTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITHIN AXIS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS TO OUR WEST/NORTH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN WI MAY BE A
LITTLE SHARPER THAN MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH 1700+ J/KG MLCAPE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR INDICATE GRADUAL DECAY WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
SFC...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME REMNANT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MKE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY ADD
SOME POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL LAKE MI LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO AFFECT WFO LOT LAND
AREAS.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
TRENDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA TODAY CONTINUES OFF TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH WAS IN PLACE TODAY HAS WEAKENED AND
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS 50 DEGREE
DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. ANY MORE ROBUST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE AREA...WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH HERE IN
THE NEAR TERM. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKEWISE DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY/SUNNY DAY WITH
WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS WHERE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED WITH ONSHORE FLOW. A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW HIGH THE TEMPS WILL GET IN THIS
LOCATION BEFORE THE WINDS TURN...BUT THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RISING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. SO DID
BUMP UP TEMPS AND EVEN FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN INDIANA...WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LESS OF AN IMPACT FROM THE LAKE.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WITH STEERING FLOW KEEPING MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND VEERING LLJ
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY DID LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...BUT WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OVERLY GREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD AND AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH THUNDER...BUT WITH AT LEAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND A DECENT LLJ...DID LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL DIP
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR THIS MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW/MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
INITIALLY THIS WILL BE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...BUT DO THINK THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REMAINING AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONGER STORM
WITH STRONG GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD. ALSO...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN HELP FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THIS TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE THE BEST PERIODS
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH.
WITH FLOW STILL REMAINING WEAK AND WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING COULD STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
STRONG DEVELOPMENT. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...HEAVIER RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN HAZARD. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY LINGER SATURDAY MORNING BUT PUSHING SOUTH DURING THIS TIME.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT/PRECIP...STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

WINDS NEAR THE LAKE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ARE SWITCHING OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS WIND SPEEDS DROP IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY SWITCH AT KORD
AND KMDW OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS REMAINS LOW...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW 10 KT...SO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE EASTERLY OFF THE LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP AROUND 10 KT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SOME FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. A HEALTHY LATE SEASON SHOT OF CHILLY AIR ALONG
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
FULL FETCH NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT DO
SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPS ARE WARMER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MORE UNSTABLE.
WHILE WIND AND GUST GRIDS DONT REFLECT THIS...THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN ABOUT 5-8MI OF THE SHORE OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE LAKE. A LITTLE EARLY TO HOIST A GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED SOON.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

916 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
916 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO MATCH HOURLY OBS TRENDS.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
TRENDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

515 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND SW WI WITH A VORT MAX OVER
IOWA. THE LOWS COLD FRONT REMAINS A BIT FURTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL IA
AND EASTERN KS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL WI AND ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE IS OVER I-39...BUT THINKING THAT CAPE IN REALITY IS AROUND
500 J/KG DUE TO LIMITED HEATING. CAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AS THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT THINKING IN
GENERAL THE BREAKS ARE MOVING TOO QUICKLY AND TOO FEW AND FAR BTWN
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH VALUES AROUND 35-40 KT.

THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS INDIANA
RIGHT NOW. A SECOND SKINNY LINE OF CONVECTION LIES FROM DIXON IL TO
JERSEYVILLE IL WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL CELLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. DUE TO
LIMITED CAPE AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SW AND HELICITY IS MUCH
LOWER SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AS I WAS THIS
MORNING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE AT 1.4-1.7 INCHES SO
ANY OF THE NEW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT WE ARE NOT DONE YET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS EVENING AS THE VORT MAX
APPROACHES. THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST ALONG AND WEST OF
GARY INDIANA TO PAXTON IL LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER AND
NO SEVERE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TONIGHT SO THINKING
WE WILL NOT COOL MUCH...SO KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY TOMORROW BUT NOT AS ACTIVE. A PAIR OF
VORT STREAMERS AND THE LOWS COLD FRONT ROTATE THROUGH AND SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THEM. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THIS VORT STREAMER WOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA...NORTH
OF I-88. PRECIP MAY SINK SOUTH ACROSS DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES IN
THE AFTN...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP WILL
GET.

CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS WEST OF I-
55 BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AS CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE. HAVE TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING SO EXPECTING LAKE COOLING ESPECIALLY AT WAUKEGAN.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOCAL AREA WILL START OUT FIRMLY UNDER MID/UPPER RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSISUS BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S CELSISUS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT
DESPITE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND FAIRLY EARLY. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS (ESPECIALLY IL SHORE) IN THE UPPER 60S.

CHANGES WILL START TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GETTING SHUNTED EAST AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE FOCUSED MID
CHANCE POPS INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
FORCING WILL LIFT NORTH AND REFOCUS INTO NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAILORED POPS AS SUCH...BUT THEN A STRONGER WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
LOWER IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER IMPACT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VERY MILD START TO DAY AND WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S...WARMEST
IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA. THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MODEST CAPE
VALUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME WET MICROBURSTS WITH PWAT
VALUES IN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF
MAY. HIGHS ON THE LAKEFRONT ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 50S ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ONLY 60S AND 70S INLAND ON SATURDAY AND
60S ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SO KEPT HIGHER
CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IF TRENDS ON MUCH OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EXPANSIVE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH TO EAST...THOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKEFRONT.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* ISOLATED MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING TO MID/UPPER 20KTS.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MM/RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED VSBYS TO 1 MILE UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LINE PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER POCKETS OF RAIN AND TALLER EMBEDDED CELLS PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. LOW CHANCE/CONFIDENCE OF ANY OF THESE CELLS
HITTING THE TERMINALS...SO KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 19Z.

LOOKING TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
INVERSION WILL ALLOW A CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO WORK INTO
THE TERMINALS. THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY
BROKEN DECK AT 025. INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE LAKE BREEZE TO
WORK INTO ORD NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TEMPO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MM/RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTH WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER QUEBEC
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH. WINDS WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...THEN A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...THOUGH WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT MIXING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADD AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES
SHOWN ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

417 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* ISOLATED MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

* RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER CHANCES.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEED.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

332 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* ISOLATED MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

* RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER CHANCES.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEED.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE
TODAY...WHICH MAY HELP TO FURTHER ENHANCE ANY AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. IT IS POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...WHICH WITH WARMER
NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECT SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING TO OCCUR.
FURTHER OUT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THE WATER REMAINS COLD AND
EXPECT THE STABILITY TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MIX TO THE SFC THE
HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS DEVELOPING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
STEADILY SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY VEER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS QUICK WIND SHIFT WILL BE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE
LAKE. WAVES SHOULD EASILY BUILD SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

300 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF
DUBUQUE. INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER HAS ADVANCED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE INDIANA BORDER...WITH A SECONDARY AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING A
REASONABLE JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
FOR THE RAIN TRENDS TONIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH GOING
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING EXCEPT WEST OF I-55...
WHERE LOW CHANCE POP`S WERE KEPT AS A WAVE/TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE LINGERED THESE 30% CHANCES OVERNIGHT
FROM ABOUT DECATUR WESTWARD. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME INCREASE IS NOTED
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL ALONG WITH WARM AND RATHER HUMID SUMMERLIKE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DURING SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES INTO MI ON WED WHILE
PUSHING A WEAK FRONT SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY WED AFTERNOON. ALSO
HAVE A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SE IL
AND CENTRAL INDIANA BY 18Z/WED. INCREASE INSTABLITY ON WED WITH
CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-72 TO RETURN CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER CHANCES NW OF IL RIVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WED
AFTERNOON SE OF A SHELYVILLE TO PARIS LINE. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF I-72 WED NIGHT MAINLY WED EVENING. THEN ISOLATED
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN AND SW AREAS ON THU AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MORE STABLE AIR
OVER NE CWA FROM I-74 NE WHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY. NAM MODEL IS STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE THU SW OF I-74 BUT THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THIS AS
STRONGER INSTABLITY CLOSER MO AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU PLUS
HAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN STATES THU.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THU NIGHT AND IN BREEZY SSW
FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HIGHEST OVER
IL RIVER VALLEY (LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF IL RIVER ON FRIDAY) AND
LOWEST NEAR WABASH RIVER. WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WED AND MID
80S THU AND FRI AND A FEW AREAS COULD REACH UPPER 80S WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NEAR WABASH RIVER WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER.

HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING SATURDAY. HIGHS
SAT TO CONTRAST FROM LOWER 70S NW OF IL RIVER TO LOW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST IL. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST IL ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING WHILE LOWERED POPS
TO LOW CHANCE NW OVER IL RIVER VALLEY BEHIND COLD FRONT. AREAS NW OF
IL RIVER NOW APPEAR DRY ON SUNDAY WHILE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS FROM I-72 SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SE OF OHIO RIVER OVER KY/TN. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 70S SE IL.

EXTENDED MODELS LIKE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING INTO MO BY MON AND TO CONTINUE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS, BETWEEN 18Z AND 08Z, ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL.

THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AROUND THE NOON HOUR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL
FROM 19-21Z AND THEN EASTERN IL FROM 21-23Z. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE MVFR FOR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING, THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL IL JUST AFTER
SUNSET. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT SINCE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO WSW. THIS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CEILINGS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
229 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
OPEN 500MB WAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY QUEBEC...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING
WED AFTN. SFC FEATURES REMAIN DISORGANIZED WED...WITH A BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. OPER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP
WILL DEPART THE REGION. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS HOLDING ONTO CHC TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWFA WED/WED EVE.
ALTHOUGH WITH SOME HINT OF SFC HEIGHTS NUDGING UP...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME DRY AIR COULD FILTER IN AND KICK PRECIP EAST BY MIDDAY AND
ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY WED. SFC WINDS WILL BE TURNING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST...KEEPING AN OFFSHORE FLOW FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS SHOULD YET AGAIN TOUCH UPR 70S TO ARND 80 WED...IF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN PUSH EAST BY MIDDAY...SOME CLEARING WOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER INTO THE LOW 80S IN
SOME LOCATIONS. LATE IN THE EVENING THE GRADIENT SLACKENS
FURTHER...AND COULD ALLOW A LATE DAY ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

MID-LVL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL GENERALLY ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT
IS NOT VERY STRONG. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LAKE
BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THUR. TIMING COULD END UP BEING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER GIVEN THE LIGHT SFC GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN HOLDING PRECIP WEST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THUR...AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK SFC RIDGING. SO ONE MORE MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S...HOWEVER AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BLEED THE MUCH COOLER MARINE AIR WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. IF THE TIMING IS EARLIER IN THE DAY THUR...TEMPS
MAY NOT WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE CHICAGO LAKEFRONT.

FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHERLY THUR NIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
IN THE MID-LVLS PUSHING THE RIDGING EAST. A RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THUR EVE...WITH
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING EAST THUR NIGHT TOWARDS
WESTERN IL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ENERGIZED AS A ROBUST
500MB VORT MAX BREAKS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATE THUR NIGHT.

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A ROBUST TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRI. THIS COUPLED WITH DOWNSTREAM MID-LVL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.

THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION.

OPER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SERIES
OF WAVES ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI AFTN/EVE...THEN
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE EAST WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS SAT MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND
THE UPR 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH ONLY LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO THE
PRIOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE WEEKEND
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO FEED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* ISOLATED MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

* RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER CHANCES.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEED.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
229 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI MORNING.

THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

* RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SOUTHEAST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER CHANCES.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEED EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS/WEATHER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR TODAY
BASED ON TRENDS OF CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL BY THE NOON HOUR. A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST HOUR, SO ONLY A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS-ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, WHICH MAY HELP TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT CUMULUS WILL MOST LIKELY RAPIDLY FILL
IN. THE HRRR, NAM12 AND RAP ALL SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IL, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS, STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS INDICATING LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT STILL IS WEST OF THE CWA. RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
SEVERAL MCVS WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MO. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PCPN REDEVELOPING
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BUT STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS, JUST NOT ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING
SEVERE, WHICH SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL BE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO TEMPER WARM UP AS WELL SO ONLY
EXPECTING UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN PAST TWO DAYS.
POPS WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE TODAY REACHING LIKELY LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVING NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
CHANCE CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A TAD GUSTY AGAIN, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE PULLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, LINGERING
POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA FOR THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROVIDE A BIT OF FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFERING
WITH THE NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE PRECIP, BUT LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING
IN SOME PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST. NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT CONCENTRATING THE POPS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST FOR NOW. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS SYNOPTIC RUN
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICK ON THE HEELS AS THE DEEP WAVE OVER THE SW
STARTS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION AND PRECIP STARTS TO
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN THE MODELS WITH WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...BUT THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO FOCUS THE RAIN, WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND OUT OF
THE 80S FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS, BETWEEN 18Z AND 08Z, ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
1007 AM CDT

A SFC LOW IS OVER IOWA AND ITS WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS WELL TO
OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL WI. ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AN AREA OF MAINLY RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY SPREADING NNE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL. SO
FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING ACROSS MY CWA...BUT A FEW CELLS
TO THE WEST HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION.

LIKING THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS CAPE VALUES ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDS J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. THIS IS
ASSUMING SKIES STAY OVERCAST...AND THINKING WE WILL BE OVERCAST
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUNSHINE COULD
DEVELOP ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT TALLER CELLS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER. IN GENERAL THINKING DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT STRONGER STORMS WITH HIGHER
CAPE VALUES COULD SUPPORT HAIL. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING GRAVITY
WAVE TAGS MOVING ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS AND WHEN THE TAGS
INTERSECT THE LINE...STORMS BEGIN TO SPIN. THEREFORE THE TORNADO
THREAT IS NOT ZERO.

THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL. THE SECOND
WAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES ARE
1.2-1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE PSBL.

JEE

.SHORT TERM...
319 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH AROUND THE TOP OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE WHICH HAS CONTROLLED THE PATH OF
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SLY...MODERATELY
STRONG...WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT OR POSSIBLE INCH A
LITTLE HIGHER.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE TRACK OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL PREDOMINANTLY IMPACT
ERN IOWA AND WRN IL BY ARND DAYBREAK. THROUGH THE MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...ALL OF IL AND INTO NWRN IN...WILL LEAD TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. A SFC TROUGH...AS WELL INDICATED
BY THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WITH LIFT THROUGH NRN IL/IN
THROUGH THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-
50 KT...WITH PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON WIND PROFILES AND MID LEVEL
DRYING...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES SFC WIND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS FROM 180-190 DEGREES TO 160-
170 DEGREES...WHILE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN SWLY. THIS SLIGHT BACKING OF
THE SFC WINDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS TO BRING AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH PWATS REACHING 1.75 INCHES
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS THE SWLY WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK WILL RANGE
FROM ARND 45 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ARND 90KT AT UPPER
LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TO MOVE QUICKLY.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT INTO WISCONSIN
WHILE A SFC TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WINDS AT THE SFC VEERING TO SWLY...SETTING UP A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE...EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE
REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THE MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THAT A DRY SLOW SHOULD NOSE INTO NRN IL...EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF THE PCPN AREA INTO 2 SEPARATE AREA...ONE OVER WISCONSIN
AND ERN IOWA AND ANOTHER MORE FOCUSED OVER INDIANA. THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING...WHILE PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN IL
BEGIN TO WANE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION THROUGH WISCONSIN AS IT
APPROACHES THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW WILL LINGER
OVER ERN IOWA IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE STEADILY PUSHING ACROSS
NRN IL AND INTO NWRN IN OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO ANY
LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF IL...ALONG THE WI BORDER.

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
229 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI MORNING.

THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

* RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SOUTHEAST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

* MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER CHANCES.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEED EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
1007 AM CDT

JEE

.SHORT TERM...
319 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
229 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI MORNING.

THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON

* LINE OF RA APPROACHING TERMINALS WITH VCTS POSSIBLE

* SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM SSE BECOMING SSW AFTER 23Z...GUSTING
OVER 20KT

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...

DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN ANY THUNDER REACHING THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DROPPED GROUP TO VCTS FOR A LIMITED TIME. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE OF RAIN...WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...ONLY CONFIDENT
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE LINE.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AND MEDIUM IN WIND
DIRECTION.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND RAIN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
VCTS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER ALL SITES UNTIL SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPI IS THE ONLY ONE AT MVFR STATUS RIGHT NOW. ALL OTHER TAF SITES
ARE MVFR. BY THIS AFTERNOON ALL SITES SHOULD BE MVFR WITH HIGHER
CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS RADAR
LOOPS SHOWS. THEN HAS THE DAY HEATS UP THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD END SOMETIME EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN BE VFR AS THE AREA SHOULD BE WELL IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD BE MORE PCPN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THERE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
1007 AM CDT

JEE

.SHORT TERM...
319 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
229 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRI MORNING.

THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

* PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH PERIODIC TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING TO
GUST OVER 20KT

KREIN/MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NRN IL
BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL ENHANCE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PCPN AND THE CHANCE FOR TSRA...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT
PERIOD FOR THE TSRA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING TEMPO FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PCPN TIMING COULD
BE SHIFTED OR EXPANDED IN TIME.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BROUGHT A LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SITES ARE REPORTING CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR
RANGE...SO WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH
LATE MORNING. DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MIXING WHICH SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TODAY...THOUGH DIRECTION MAY BE
A BIT VARIABLE AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME GUSTINESS IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY
TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING SWLY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS TODAY. MEDIUM IN WIND TRENDS
TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF
TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TSRA TIMING AND IMPACT ON THE
TERMINALS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.

KREIN/MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WX NIL/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA/SHRA LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

KREIN

.MARINE...
229 AM CDT

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

126 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AND WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID
80S BY FRIDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS DECENT SHORTWAVE SHEARING
NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. VAST MAJORITY OF
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF OUR CWA GETTING AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH
OF PRECIP SO BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS MORE NEBULOUS GIVEN ABUNDANT PREFRONTAL CLOUDS...LACKLUSTER
FORCING...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 6 C/KM. THAT BEING SAID...
12Z NAM...RAP...AND HRRR ALL SHOW POCKETS OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND 30 KTS
WITH 0-3KM VALUES AROUND 25 KTS. NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR SOUTHEAST
HALF GIVEN MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...THOUGH WOULDN`T RULE OUT THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO DECENT
0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AND RELATIVELY LOW LCLS. HAIL THREAT IS
NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER NOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR
ANY EVIDENCE OF ENHANCED SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE POOLING THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THIS LINE APPROACHES. AGAIN...SEVERE RISK IS STILL
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SRN STREAM SW OVR NE OK WILL DAMPEN NEWD
THROUGH ERN IA TDA. HWVR UNLIKE YDA UPR JET STREAK ALIGNED A BIT
FURTHER EWD W/A MORE ROBUST HGT FALLS OVERSPREADING CWA THIS AFTN.
UPSTREAM CLD EVOLUTION SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP
THROUGH MORNING W/AT LEAST A FVRBL YET LIMITED SFC BASED
DESTABILIZATION RESPONSE RESULTING. EWD EXTENT OF MORE SIG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING MUCH IN DOUBT HWVR POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION ORGANIZATION TO CONVN ESP SHLD BTR THAN XPCD
INSTABILITY DVLP.

REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME...FOLLOWING DRYSLOT AND INCREASING MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE QUICK TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A LINGERING
SHOWER GENERALLY EAST HAVE DROPPED POPS AFT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THERE ARE LOTS OF CHALLENGES THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE LONG WAVE
TROF BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AFTER EJECTING A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE
SYSTEMS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALBEIT RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO
LIMIT CONVECTION. ALSO...SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
INTERCEPT MOISTURE FLUX AND LIMIT VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTH. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS HAS
HAD ASTOUNDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH OKLAHOMA CITY
APPROACHING 20 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH...WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH IN THIS CITY. WITH SO MUCH RECENT RAIN
UPSTREAM... THERE WILL LIKELY BE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE AS REFLECTED
IN RESEARCH AS WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1993 FLOODS. KEPT THESE FACTORS
IN MIND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AN EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
TROF SHOULD BE SE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS
WILL PLAY OUT...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST AT SOME POINT
LOOK REAL FAVORABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY WELL INTO THE 80S AS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS MEX FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING TAF FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THE MAIN CONCERN. LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA WITH SOME CONVECTION POPPING UP AHEAD OF IT WHERE MORNING
SUN HAS ALLOWED BETTER INSTABILITY TO BUILD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT INTERSECTS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
KFWA WITH LOWER CHANCES AT KSBN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
20-22Z TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LOWER CIGS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MUCH DRIER AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE SO WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1044 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME...FOLLOWING DRYSLOT AND INCREASING MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE QUICK TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A LINGERING
SHOWER GENERALLY EAST HAVE DROPPED POPS AFT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING LL MSTR FLUX AHD OF EJECTING UPSTREAM SW TROUGH OVR
ERN KS RESULTING IN RAPIDLY EWD EXPANDING MVFR CIGS. HWVR
W/SUNRISE XPC RAPID MIXING WILL ENSUE AS CIG HGTS SETTLE OUT INTO
LOW BOUND VFR CU/SC. DECAYED ARC OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA ACRS ERN
MO/WRN IL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF HGT FALLS ASSOCD/W UPSTREAM SW
AND AS THAT SYS EJECTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO WRN WI LT THIS AFTN WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVN DVLPMNT INVOF THE
TERMINALS TWD 18Z. DEGREE OF CONV VIGOR MUCH UNCERTAIN PENDING
EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR CLD CVR. SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION XPCD
TO BE REMAIN LIMITED W/BTR CHCS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION ACRS NW
OH WHERE MORE UNSTABLE CONDS MAY DVLP. OUTSIDE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS
AOA 25KTS THIS AFTN...REGARDLESS BRIEF PD OF GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE PSBL
W/CONVN ESP INVOF KFWA TWD MID AFTN COINCIDENT W/CORE OF 45KT LLJ
OVERHEAD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

713 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 80 61 77 / 80 60 70 50
GCK 59 81 58 79 / 60 40 50 30
EHA 58 80 56 79 / 40 30 30 40
LBL 60 81 60 80 / 50 40 50 40
HYS 61 79 60 78 / 60 60 70 50
P28 64 79 65 78 / 80 60 60 50

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 82 63 79 / 20 60 60 60
GCK 55 81 61 80 / 10 50 60 40
EHA 54 81 61 81 / 20 30 50 30
LBL 57 82 62 81 / 10 50 60 60
HYS 56 81 64 79 / 10 50 70 60
P28 60 82 65 79 / 20 50 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 57 79 63 / 20 20 60 60
GCK 77 55 80 61 / 20 10 50 60
EHA 77 54 81 61 / 10 20 30 50
LBL 78 57 82 62 / 20 10 50 60
HYS 78 56 79 64 / 10 10 50 70
P28 80 60 80 65 / 20 20 50 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TOPEKA KS

1213 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Precipitation persists over much of the area, though becoming
steadily more scattered in nature and generally rather low rates.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long
upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress
through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops.

Have a hard time ruling out precip for much of today and tonight.
Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation
precip`s exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in
isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around
the low into northern areas in the late morning to early
afternoon. Still seeing best lower-level forcing in southern areas
late today into tonight were somewhat better convergence exists.
There is also decent larger-scale model similarity in another wave
rotating (perhaps taking shape in western Nebraska early this
morning) passing through over this same period, although heights
are still rising. Moisture through the column not up to recent
levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some
instability developing in peak heating. Fairly unidirectional and
modest wind speeds keep severe storm concerns low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Surface high pressure moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday,
with the frontal boundary slowing over southern Kansas under
generally west southwest upper flow. Think more stable surface air
plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday
but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the
front progresses. Next in a series of shortwave trofs moves over
eastern Kansas overnight into Thursday morning, and draws rain
chances back over our area. Have continued chances into Thursday,
although features driving rain chances are more mesoscale in
nature and timing will likely need adjustment.

Better model agreement on a slightly larger scale shortwave
feature lifting out of the southwest US and across eastern Kansas
for Friday, and will keep higher rain chances as a result. Front
slides southeast across the area through early Saturday morning,
cooling things down and bringing decreasing rain chances through
Sunday from northwest to southeast. If pattern persists, may be
able to end chances sooner. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday are forecast in the upper 70s near 80, falling into the 60s
for the weekend behind the front, with lows in the 60s then
falling to the 50s late week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Expect VFR conds to prevail through the period. Only issue may be
sct -shra or isolated tsra which is possible just about anywhere
through 06z given the unstable atmosphere and proximity of the
upper system and weak boundary. Simply don`t think coverage will
be sufficient to warrant any more than vcsh at this point.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Omitt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

641 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Brief IFR deck has exited and radars
showing increasing precip trends, so went with a SHRA mention but
no limitations anticipated out of this last band. Still too low
confidence in any additional precip mention beyond 14Z.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

400 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Showers and thunderstorms should continue at TOP and FOE until
about 09Z with things slowly drying out after that. MVFR
conditions expected in the precipitation. MHK should have just
some light rain until about 09Z, with VFR conditions throughout.
After that, expect dry conditions and VFR for the day into the
evening. There is a small chance of evening thunderstorms in east
central KS this evening, but not enough confidence to put in TAF.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AS EXPECTED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND
MIDDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AS A COOLER...DRIER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN INTACT TIL EXPIRATION.

THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTSOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF IT SURVIVED ALL THE
WAY TO OUR REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN THERE WITH
LESSER/NO POPS IN THE NORTH.

GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PUMPED UP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS AND A LACK OF ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTION GOING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO WILL KEEP
THE LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES POPS GOING.

WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY...FIGURE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. BUT...THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STREAM OVER
THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST
JUST TO BE SAFE. ELSEWHERE KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH MIDDLE 80S FORECAST...AND UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. NUDGED LOWS DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EACH
NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LINGER AWHILE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS OUT WEST PHASE AS THEY EVENTUALLY TRY TO MERGE OVER THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION. BY MIDWEEK...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACFIC NORTHWEST. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING
ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM ENDS UP OVER OK/TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER OK/TX WILL QUICKLY SCOOT NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SO IT REALLY ENDS UP BYPASSING THE
AREA. SO AS FAR AS POPS ON FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE MERELY
BASED ON AIR MASS TYPE POP UPS. HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHER ON POPS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
JUST TO OUR WEST AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE ENTERING OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLIER...WILL BE PHASING WITH OTHER SUTBLE
WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW MODEL RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY. BUT I CAN
ALSO FORESEE MODELS SETTLING DOWN A BIT WITH THE BUSY UPPER FLOW
AND WE COULD END UP DRIER THAN WE HAVE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING).

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT THEN DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR AS SHOWERS EXIT
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR OWB. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. S WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS TODAY...DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AM.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...BP2|

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

BEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF THE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A LAPS SOUNDING FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN MISSOURI INDICATES THAT THERE IS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
FIGURE THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN FOR LONG. WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BUT
FIGURE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.

ALL EYES ARE ON THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RAKING ACROSS TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NMM AND ARW WRF BOTH
WIPE IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE TRENDING THAT WAY TOO. LIKE WPC QPF AND
FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS RATHER
LOW.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY
AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. FIGURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY WILL
BE GREATEST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

REALLY FEEL THAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...BUT HAVE CHANCY POPS IN THERE ANYWAY. A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND THIS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING THIS DEVELOPMENT CONSISTENTLY FOR AT
LEAST 3 DAYS NOW...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS DEVELOP THAT ACTIVITY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE HIGHS BACK UP IN THE
80S...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY..THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER TO WARRANT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM...MOIST...AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOW EXACTLY THIS
SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL EVOLVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL
ADVERTISE HIGHEST POPS DURING THESE PERIODS.

IT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID...AS HIGHS IN THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 80S WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AS WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...MAKING IT FEEL PRETTY STICKY OUTSIDE WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 8-10Z,
AND KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 10-12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR
WITH SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DROP OFF AT KCGI/KPAH AROUND
15Z, AND AROUND 17Z AT KEVV/KOWB, AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 18Z TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WEATHER TO BEGIN THE 26/18Z TAF ISSUE. CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION TOTALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD EASILY BE AVOIDED. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR THESE
CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 27/16Z. /14/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND SCALED BACK FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE MORE SOUTHERN WITH A LOWER CHANCE
CATEGORY. HRRR MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND EAST ACROSS ADJACENT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW AROUND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AIR MASS HAVING BEEN
STABILIZED AREAWIDE. THE MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POST
SQUALL LINE RAINS DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ATTM. WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
HAVING ALREADY LIFTED TO THE NE OVER SE KS/NE OK /PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ENDING...AND WILL BE
CANCELLING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CWA WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST. THE GFS/HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH IT CLEARING THE SRN/ERN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK FARTHER
W...EVEN DROPPING POPS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF SW AR/SE OK/NE
TX. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SCT REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND INTO NCNTRL LA...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR CLIMO OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE KEYING ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IN THIS FLOW TRAVERSING THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
WHICH MAY IGNITE SCT CONVECTION ALONG/JUST E OF THE W TX DRYLINE.
THUS...SCT CONVECTION MAY SHIFT E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/EXTREME NE TX LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SE OVER DEEP E TX/SRN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THIS SHORTWAVE.
MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE
REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER E OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH THE SHORT TERM
PROGS SUGGESTING THAT DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD NE FROM E TX
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING THAT WILL DRIFT E
INTO THE ROCKIES.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
BENEATH THIS DIRTY RIDGE WITH HEATING THURSDAY...BEFORE
DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR W SETTLES
FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXTENT OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT NE TX/SW AR/SE
OK MAY SEE THE CONVECTION INITIALLY...WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY
SPREADING FARTHER ESE EACH AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS. THIS TROUGH MAY USHER A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY WASHING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER E TX/N LA.
THUS...SCT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY BEFORE THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY TRIES TO CALM DOWN AS RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 86 70 86 / 30 40 20 40
MLU 70 86 70 86 / 20 40 30 40
DEQ 67 84 69 84 / 40 40 20 40
TXK 69 85 69 86 / 30 40 20 40
ELD 69 85 69 86 / 30 40 30 40
TYR 72 86 71 86 / 30 40 20 40
GGG 72 86 71 86 / 30 40 20 40
LFK 73 87 72 86 / 20 40 20 40

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1116 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND SCALED BACK FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE MORE SOUTHERN WITH A LOWER CHANCE
CATEGORY. HRRR MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND EAST ACROSS ADJACENT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW AROUND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. /06/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT SQUALL LINE MOST SITES ARE MVFR/IFR.
SOME VFR HOLDING AND EXPECTING AREA WIDE BY 17-18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL BE S/SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SW OF 20-40KTS
RIGHT OFF THE DECK...THEN SLACKING TO 10KTS BY 5KFT. GENERALLY SW
FLOW CONTINUES ON ASCENT INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KTS BY
FL220...THEN SSW 60-80KTS ON UP. WE WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY
TODAY...BUT ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
THIS WEEK...AND MAINLY MID TO LATE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 71 86 70 / 20 30 40 20
MLU 83 70 86 70 / 20 20 40 30
DEQ 84 67 84 69 / 20 40 40 20
TXK 84 69 85 69 / 20 30 40 20
ELD 84 69 85 69 / 20 30 40 30
TYR 85 72 86 71 / 20 30 40 20
GGG 85 72 86 71 / 20 30 40 20
LFK 87 73 87 72 / 30 20 40 20

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

955 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTS TO HANG ON ACRS CNTR PORTION OF CWA THO IT
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. EXPECT SHOWERS WL
CONTINUE UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN WV MVS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. NO MAJOR
CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS
OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS
SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON
W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30
KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV
WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO
NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV
LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

744 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
NW WI COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER AREAS
WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRIGGERED SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM YQT TO DLH AND NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM LNL
TO IMT.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WI
BORDER. SOME SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER MAY ALSO SURVIVE INTO NW UPPER MI THIS EVENING BUT WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MLCAPE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE
SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...WITH COOLING BY LATE EVENING THE
REST OF THE PCPN WILL END.

WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES TO THE EAST SW
FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES.
EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 80F OVER THE WEST HALF
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOL/SCT TSRA OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 0-
6KM SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. LINGERING -SHRA/-TSRA
OVER THE WESTERN TWO TAF SITES WILL BE FINISHED BY 1Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW THAT PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT RESTRICTION TO VSBY DUE
TO FOG AT KCMX ATTM AS IT WILL BE EASIER TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM
THE MARINE LAYER THERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BOTH SITES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. KIWD AND KCMX WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

421 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE IA LIFTING TO THE NE. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM NRN WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. WITH
MLCAPE/MUCPE FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG THE
STRONGER TSRA OVER NE WI HAVE DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY EMBEDDED ISOLD
TSRA WITH THE SHRA. AT THE SFC(19Z)...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SW CORNER OF WI WITH A TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
NE INTO WRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH ONLY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING AND ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE SOUTH BEHIND INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS...THE INSTABILITY MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE VORT CENTER GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE (0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS). OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...IN LINE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV.

WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL DEPART TO THE NE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLEARING AND AFTERNOON
HEATING (TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL PAST THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME...WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PLACEMENT ALONG
WITH COLD FRONT TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHILE
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-700 J/KG FROM THE
GFS TO AROUND 800-1100 J/KG FROM THE EC...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IF SKIES ARE
OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...HELPING TO
REDUCE THE SEVERE RISK. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 TO
40 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. THE RISK AGAIN WILL BE
CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE LAKES.
TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS
NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. CALM
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN CHANCES IS LOW. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
IN BUT DECIDED TO ADJUST THEM BACK TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES IN MIND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SSW WILL BRING SHRA TO THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN CNTRL UPPER MI AFFECTING SAW AS WELL...BUT PROBABILIATY
IS TOO SMALL TO PUT INTO TAFS FOR NOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. ALTHOUGH VSBY
AT CMX MAY DROP BLO 1SM...THE RAIN WILL HELP LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MORE
DENSE FOG AOB LANDING MINIMUMS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

113 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT
KSAW AS WELL...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTN. NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE S AND SW WILL BRING SHRA TO THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH KSAW MOST LIKELY TO SEE PCPN. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SOME TSRA TO OCCUR IN CNTRL UPPER MI AS WELL. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY SET IN AGAIN THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84/98
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BECOME A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER NOW HAVING
EXITED THE REGION. THIS ALL THANKS LARGELY TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL RESIDES AND THERE HAS BEEN GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO JUST BE ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH MORE RESPECTABLE FORCING WILL BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE REGION...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING GOOD LAPSE RATES WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/GREATER INSTABILITY...
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...THUS WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
LIMITED RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY. THIS WILL NUDGE A SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. /DL/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN EAST CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO
WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
/AEG/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 86 68 85 / 23 47 22 51
MERIDIAN 67 86 67 85 / 21 54 23 50
VICKSBURG 67 87 68 86 / 29 43 23 50
HATTIESBURG 69 86 68 86 / 32 58 28 58
NATCHEZ 68 86 69 85 / 34 49 25 58
GREENVILLE 69 86 69 86 / 20 39 23 42
GREENWOOD 68 85 68 85 / 20 43 23 45

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. /AEG/

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/AEG/17/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

647 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Thunderstorms were ongoing mainly along and south of Highway 60
and east of Highway 65 late this afternoon ahead of a subtle
shortwave trough moving across northeast OK/northwest AR. Low
level convergence and winds are weak in this area. However the
airmass remains very unstable with dew points in the mid and upper
60s, and CAPE values averaging around 2500 j/kg. We got a report
of pea hail with one of the weaker looking storms, so suspect that
these slow moving cells, especially over Howell/Shannon/northwest
Oregon counties are dropping some small hail and heavy rain as they
drift slowly to the east-southeast.

Most of this activity is expected to diminish after sunset. Will
need to monitor latest HRRR output which generates another area of
heavy rain over southern Howell/Oregon counties later tonight.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Fairly quiet weather is occurring early/mid afternoon over the
cwfa. Cumulus field is popping in weak sfc convergence south of a
sfc front over the northern cwfa. High res guidance (throwing out
the NAM with poor handing of sfc dew points) develops some isold-
sct convection this afternoon in the area of best sfc moisture
convergence over far southern MO/se KS. By and large however, weak
shortwave ridging is helping to suppress widespread convection
despite some decent instability. Seeing some better updrafts over
northern AR, so will need to watch our area while we still have
the sfc heating/instability.

We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave
upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night
and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. We should
see better chances for diurnally driven showers/tstms Thursday
with deeper moisture expected (but weaker instability), but the
bulk of more widespread rain is expected to remain off to the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east
through the Plains Fri/Sat. Small scale ripples in the sw flow and
then eventually convergence along the approaching relatively
diffuse sfc trough will increase rain chances Fri/Sat. Progged
synoptic forcing is fairly weak, but overall better moisture and
the potential for more efficient rain producing convection will
give us better overall chances for precip. Two-three day rainfall
totals will again mount over time, but at least for now we are a
bit too far out for any hydro watch related headlines, but
guidance trends will need to be watched.

It still looks like a period of drier weather early next week as
sfc high pressure noses south from the Midwest. A weakness/upper
level cutoff is expected to meander nearby over the mid/lower MS
Vly which may kick off some spotty diurnally driven convection,
but overall the pattern does look drier through Wed/Day 7.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

With enhanced cumulus field and ongoing convection, will keep
vicinity storms at all TAF sites through around 4Z. Through the
night and into early Thursday will see winds pick back up from the
south ahead of a deepening lee side trough over the Plains. Will
bring vicinity storms back into the TAFS by mid to late morning,
with tempo storms by early afternoon as a stronger upper level
shortwave approaches the region.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

321 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Ceilings will gradually improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon at the
TAF sites as the stratus continues to erode. An area of
thunderstorms may develop in Eastern Kansas after 00z tonight and
begin to move into the TAF sites overnight however timing and
coverage is uncertain. MVFR conditions are then possible
overnight toward morning. Winds will remain around 10-15 kts
throughout the period.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1235 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Today - Wednesday:

Vorticity max which lifted out of West TX yesterday and helped
generate the MCC that roared through east TX has attempted to merge
with the NE/KS upper trough. Hard to say if this process has been
successful. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity max
currently over east central KS while allowing a separate h7
vorticity max to rotate east through the NE/KS upper trough and
across northern MO this afternoon.

Near term portion of forecast is tied to radar trends which shows a
fairly expansive region of tropical type showers with a few
thunderstorms. The entire region of rain is starting to lift
northeast. Have followed the trend of the HRRR and gone with
categorical PoPs for much of northern and west central MO this
morning. Think we`ll see scattered afternoon convection over
northern MO in response to the above mentioned h7 vorticity max
spinning through that area. A weak cold front/convergent zone is
expected to drift south through the CWA tonight and will provide
additional lift for scattered convection.

Also watching area of loosely organized convection coming out of NM
and into the TX Panhandle. Can see some rotation in water vapor
imagery. NAM and SREF seem to have best handle of this feature and
they both lift it northeast today. Am expecting to see scattered
convection reform with this feature and likely affect at least the
far southern counties this evening/overnight. So have upped PoPs
this region.

Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to
weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.

Thursday - Weekend:

Very unsettled pattern as upper flow backs to the southwest and a
series of weak embedded disturbances lift northeast through the
Central Plains. Eventually a broad upper trough will shift east out
of the Central Rockies over the weekend and enhance precipitation
chances for at least Saturday. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will once again flow northward and gradually result in a tropical
environment by Thursday night. Medium range models have been hitting
the PoPs hard with only minor run-to-run changes. See no reason to
deviate from likely PoPs during this period. Due to recent heavy
rains leaving sub-soil saturated will need to be watchful for
flooding issues as progged soundings once again are suggestive of
warm-rain processes.

Have some concern that the model PoPs are too low as both the
GFS/ECMWF still have the upper trough just passing through MO. Think
the model blended PoPs have not picked up on this. Sunday is looking
a bit chilly since we`ll be under an extensive cloud shield with
scattered convection.

Monday:

Finally should see the start of drying out as the upper trough
should have passed east of the region with subsidence overspreading
the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Ceilings are lifting into VFR while things dry out behind this
morning`s precipitation. Scattered showers and a few storms will
likely redevelop over northern MO over the next few hours, but may
stay just north of the KC area. Could also see isolated to scattered
storms later this evening mainly to the east and southeast of KC
toward SZL and DMO.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

612 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Today - Wednesday:

Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to
weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.

Thursday - Weekend:

Monday:

Finally should see the start of drying out as the upper trough
should have passed east of the region with subsidence overspreading
the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Large area of tropical type rain will gradually lift northeast and
out of northwest and west central MO by mid-morning and northern MO
by noon hour. However, scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms look like they;ll reform across northern MO. Otherwise,
despite the rain ceilings have remained generally VFR. Should see
clouds scatter from the southwest this afternoon.

Additional area of showers and storms are expected to spread into
west central MO late this evening as a system lifts out of the TX
Panhandle.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011-012.

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

456 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Today - Wednesday:

Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to
weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.

Thursday - Weekend:

Monday:

Finally should see the start of drying out as the upper trough
should have passed east of the region with subsidence overspreading
the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift north northwest over
the next few hours, impacting all TAF sites through 06z at IXD to
07z at MKC and MCI, to 08z or later at STJ. A few showers and
possibly an embedded storm could sweep back through the area between
09z and 12z, but this is less likely and coverage should be less,
warranting a VCTS group for this period at all locations. By 12z, all
sites should return to VFR, and variable wind direction due to storm
outflow will end, allowing winds to increase out of the southwest.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-
011-012.

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

747 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST...AND THEN RAMPED UP CHANCES MORE TOWARD
LATE OVERNIGHT...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR
THE CONVECTION IN THE WEST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

700 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

912 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO SPARK OFF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POP/SKY/WX/WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ARE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MODEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. I DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE SPRING/SHEEP RANGES IN CLARK COUNTY AS MODELS DO HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THERE. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
THE HRRR..SPECIFICALLY IN INCREASING SPEEDS AND KEEPING SOUTHEAST
WINDS GOING AT KLAS FOR A BIT LONGER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOW INDICATED THAT A TURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOR THE MOMENT THE
BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS SWITCH IS 23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 15
KTS OR LESS. A FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET TODAY WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET TONIGHT SOUTH OF KIYK-KDRA-KSGU LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
20Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z OR SO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...MVFR OR LOWER VSBY IN HEAVIER SHRA AND CIGS TO 5K-8K FEET
ARE POSSIBLE. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
303 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT GOT GOING YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEVADA HAS PUSHED TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
IN A SOMEWHAT DECAYED STATE. MOST OF THE MAIN COMPLEX WAS NOW JUST
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN SOME CELLS
DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY IN THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON THE HRRR,
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL SLATED TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE AROUND FROM THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TWO FEATURES ARE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING. ONE IS THE MAIN JET STREAM WHICH IS PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL PUSH A BAND OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT RESULTING IN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME OF THE CLOUDS COULD ENHANCE OFF THE COASTAL RANGES OF
SOCAL BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THUS SKY COVER HERE MAY BE
UNDERDONE. THE SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORCAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS
MORNING. THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL WORK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEVADA TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
(MAINLY MID-LEVEL) AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE HELP TO SPARK OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INSPECTING THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM
MODELS, THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN AREAS THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE
SECOND WILL BE ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER. THE MAIN
THREATS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS THAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. DESPITE THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS WILL SNAP THE SUB-90 STREAK IN LAS VEGAS THAT
HAS BEEN AROUND SINCE MAY 4TH. WITH TEMPS RISING, SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 11000 FEET TODAY BUT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS COULD AGAIN DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. HIKERS AND OUTDOOR
ENTHUSIASTS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
AGAIN BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY CONDITIONS ON AREA TRAILS AND
CAMPGROUNDS HIGHER UP.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AND HELP TO PUSH ANY CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA OFF
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY START THE DAY OFF IN MOHAVE COUNTY. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WITH ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AS WELL
AS INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW
MORE DEGREES AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WARM FURTHER. THIS
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND I SIDED WITH THE WARMER
MAV (GFS) NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR A FULL-FLEDGED FEEL OF
SPRING (MORE LIKE SUMMER DEPENDING ON YOUR TASTE AND HOW THIS SPRING
HAS BEEN) BY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION IN. IF
YOU HAVE BEEN HOLDING OFF USING ON THE AIR CONDITIONER MUCH, GET
READY TO CRANK IT AS HIGHS SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR A
CHANGE. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COULD STILL SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING
THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST DESERT LOCALES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. HOWEVER ALL BASE AND DERIVED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EACH OTHER FROM MODEL TO MODEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FURTHER
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF 2015 FOR MANY
DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING LAS VEGAS. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD MIXING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BUMP UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY
MAKING THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROUGH...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM........STACHELSKI
LONG TERM.........PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

303 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 120 AND 160 DEGREES TRUE DIRECTION THEN SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 170 AND 220 DEGREES AROUND 21Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT 12
KTS OR LESS. A FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET TODAY WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET TONIGHT SOUTH OF KIYK-KDRA-KSGU LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
20Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z OR SO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...MVFR OR LOWER VSBY IN HEAVIER SHRA AND CIGS TO 5K-8K FEET
ARE POSSIBLE. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

522 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LESS COVERAGE
OF -TSRA/-SHRA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FAVORED AREAS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT VIRGA AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE MOST COMMON. HRRR SUGGESTS KFMN MAY BE IMPACTED
LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO THE TAF.

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

307 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS...WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO EXTEND OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAD
INCREASED TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST DURING THE DAY...SUCH THAT
THERE WERE FAIRLY UNIFORM VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LATE AFTERNOON APPROACHED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS... AND ISOLATED THUNDER...OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST LOW-LEVEL STABILITY INCREASING BY AROUND SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A VERY ISOLATED STORM MAY FIND THEIR
WAY ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS U.S. 64 BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR WRF. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE COINCIDENT WITH FORECAST
MOISTENING ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND...AGAIN...HRRR WRF FORECASTS. 0-3KM
SHEAR ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND
GFS... IS LOW...SINGLE DIGITS KNOTS TO TEENS AT MOST...SO AS OF THIS
WRITING DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG...DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFS WOULD
SPREAD QPF FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WRF DEPICT...AND
BASED ON THE STABILITY EVEN ON THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM AND RAP WHICH KEEP
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS ALSO NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...SREF MODEL
PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE HIGH ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER AS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF LOW CLOUDS LATE. SINCE LOW CLOUDS OCCURRED MAINLY TOWARD THE
YADKIN RIVER AND THE TRIAD EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL AIR MASS
HAS MOISTENED...AND 925MB WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
VALUES OF 20 TO 30KT AS FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AS A RESULT...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70...SHY OF
ANY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM VALUES FOR MAY 27.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

INSTABILITY OVERALL INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO JUST OVER 1000J/KG
WHILE MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3KM IS GENERALLY 500J/KG OR SO.
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY... TO NEAR -5C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VERSUS ABOUT -3C.
ALOFT...THERE IS FORECAST WEAK AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE AT 850MB...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS FORECAST MODEST LIFT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...AND ANY PIEDMONT TROUGH
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS WELL...LEADING TO A DAY WHERE SCATTERED
MOSTLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ONCE AGAIN...0-3KM SHEAR IS LOW AND 850MB AND 925MB
WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT BY AFTERNOON...10 TO 20KT. HIGHS IN THE
80S.

OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING
STABILITY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOMEWHAT
BACK WEST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL DIMINISH CHANCES EAST TO WEST AND
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONLY TOWARD
THE YADKIN RIVER ESPECIALLY FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY...BUT IF THE
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

THE REMNANT MOISTURE AND SHEAR AXIS FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE BEST MID/UPR ENERGY WILL HAVE
LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST
GFS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER US BY
MONDAY. DESPITE THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING
AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY MOSTLY
ISOLATED...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
AS OF THIS WRITING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED TOWARD
KCTZ...AND DURING THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
MORE TOWARD THE TRIAD. THERE EXISTS A MODEST PROBABILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SREF MODEL PROBABILITIES OF SUCH
ARE HIGH ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...HOWEVER...THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS AND NAM DIFFER AS TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS LATE. SINCE LOW
CLOUDS OCCURRED MAINLY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND THE TRIAD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED...AND 925MB WINDS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT...HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z
IN THE TRIAD AND AT KRDU...WITH TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF SUCH AT KFAY
AND KRWI WHERE CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS NOT AS HIGH WITH LIGHTER
925MB WINDS AND LESSER PROBABILITIES EVEN ON THE AGGRESSIVE SREF.
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT AT LEAST
INTO MVFR...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING WEDNESDAY AND BE BRIEF.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH A
BETTER PROBABILITY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOWEST CHANCES OF THOSE
APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY WHEN THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE
COMPARED TO OTHER DAYS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

210 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS...WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WEST PART OF RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND THE LATEST SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS AMPLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. DURING THE MORNING...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AND EAST OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN...IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP WHICH FORECASTS OVERALL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY STABLE...THE RAP DOES
FORECAST AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO 500J/KG OR LESS.
850MB LIFT IS GREATEST TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
WHERE THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF KILM. THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE IS DOING
WELL WITH THIS MODEST CONVECTION...AND DESPITE ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY...IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THE HRRR WRF DOES SHOW
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE KFAY AND KCTZ
AREAS TO NEAR KRDU AND KRWI BY LATE IN THE DAY. FARTHER WEST...RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT CIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY HOLD OFF AS WELL UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED FORCING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING DURING THE DAY...925MB AND 850MB WINDS TO 15KT.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GLANCING SHOT DPVA ATTENDANT TO UPPER DISTURBANCES IS
HIGHEST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A
BIT WHILE DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO RAIN CHANCES TODAY(DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY) WILL ESSENTIALLY GOVERN RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PERHAPS WITH MORE EQUITABLE RAIN CHANCES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PIEDMONT.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

AS FOR TEMPS...PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

201 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS...WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF WEAKENING BY THURSDAY BUT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THOUGH FORCING OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE WEAK ON THURSDAY...A WEAK
REMNANT SHEAR AXIS AMIDST PW OVER 1.5 INCHES AND 600 TO 1200 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED...THOUGH STILL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONGEST WESTERLIES WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED.

THE UPPER RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR ACTUALLY FORECAST TO FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY RE-MOISTENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NC AS WELL...THE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEARLY
EVERYDAY...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH REACHING 90 ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1032 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEARLY
EVERYDAY...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH REACHING 90 ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LIFTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KFAY SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RELATIVE TO THE REST
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE NEAR KFAY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE TRIAD...AND EVEN APPROACHING KRDU AND KRWI. FOR A POINT
FORECAST...HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE OR
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND AREAWIDE
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND MORE SO SATURDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DECENT THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/WSS/DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1000 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHTNING RATES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR.
DROPPED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WEST HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
SHOWERS CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST MUCH
LIKE THE LATEST HRRR PROJECTS. BASED ON TRENDS BUMPED UP THE POPS
TO DEFINITE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY FAR WEST WITH INCREASING CHANCES LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE....NAMELY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN THEIR GOOD HANDLING OF THE EVENT THUS FAR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THIS EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 09-11 UTC.

FOR THURSDAY...SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR MARGINAL THREAT AREA IN THE
DAY TWO OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A COOL FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...A COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND POTENTIAL FROST. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COMMENCES SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES WERE USED
FOR MOST FIELDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AT 03Z SURFACE OBS AND HRRR DEPICT LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A TROUGH LINE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
EXTEND FROM KBIS-KJMS THEN A DOWNTREND AFTER THAT. NAM MODEL STILL
FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FORMING AFTER 06Z KMOT- KISN THEN
EXTENDING SOUTH BY SUNRISE TO KBIS- KDIK. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF
THIS WILL BE IFR OF MORE MVFR. TRENDING TO THE MORE POSITIVE MVFR.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
WAA
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WE STILL EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST AROUND 6Z THEN SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THU AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THU...AND
COULD GUST TO 30KT AT TIMES. HAVE NOT GONE THIS HIGH IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS COULD
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THU...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS IN VFR RANGE.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

712 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL IMPACT KMOT-KBIS BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z AND KJMS
AFTER 03Z. THEN A COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS AFTER 06Z KMOT-
KISN- KDIK- KBIS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 18Z

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

703 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUT NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. THESE INITIAL
STORMS SHOULD DIE AS THEY DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT WITH ABOUT A 40KT LLJ AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.25 INCHES LATER TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. DID SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AFTER 06Z-12Z...BUT DID NOT
TOUCH POPS THU.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

125 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 18 UTC. THE
15-17 UTC HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMEMT WITH FURTHER HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AFTER 19-20 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KISN
TERMINAL TONIGHT AROUND 04-08 UTC. WILL ALSO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH REGARDING FORMATION.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

JUST A FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN ANY
TAF.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TAKING PLACE
WITH LINE OF CONVECTION DECAYING TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TRI STATE AREA. USED THE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR IN ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS
MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR
FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS
HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION.

WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE
COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL
NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING
FORWARD.

LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN.

CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO PA BY LATE EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VSBYS TO DIP TO IFR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY 04Z. AFTER THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT MAINLY SKC SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HRRR AND RAP RUNS
BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE IN THIS REGARD TODAY...THERE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A
COUPLE OF BANDS/CLUSTERS AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. MAXIMUM IN
DCAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST OUT AHEAD OF ACTIVITY.
STILL MONITORING FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH A FEW SEVERE CELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER THIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WITH LESS COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS
FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDOW
OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS SEEN ON THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. STILL SOME QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE
TIMING ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS
BROADLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE SEEMINGLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALTHOUGH
THIS MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION MAY DIFFER DEPENDING ON HOW EARLIER
STORMS EVOLVE.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SEEM ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE TWO FACTORS DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
IN SYNC. NONETHELESS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

MAIN UPDATE WAS ADJUSTING TIMING OF POPS AND BUMPING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING
TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION
ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE PICKED A 3 HOUR TEMPO
WINDOW WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH
LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(DUE TO POTENTIAL STRATUS) MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

153 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PATCH OF CONVECTION THAT HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND CLE NOT
MATERIALIZING. WILL STICK WITH PLAN TO ALLOW ONLY WIDELY SCT WEAK
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH QPF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S AS DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORNING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OR DISSIPATE WITH THE MORNING MIX. THE APPROACHING WAVE
FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE LIFT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED LIFT AND CONTINUED FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SHOULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INDIANA/NW OHIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION LIKELY POPS. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR RETURNS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

OF NOTE THROUGH THE WEEK IS THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RATHER HIGH. THIS MAY END UP LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TO
TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY GET INTO THE AREA BUT FOR
FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING. WITH THAT SAID WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS A BIT BETTER ON TIMING TODAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AN ECMWF
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
TENNESSEE OR LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE LIKELY MOVING BACK
NORTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING ITS OWN MOISTURE WITH IT BUT
WILL ALSO GET AN INFLUX OF GLFMX MOISTURE AS IT WAFFLES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS OF COURSE IF A FAIRLY WET PATTERN
SUGGESTING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUING MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL LIKELY CLIP CAK/YNG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BETWEEN 07-10Z. OTHERWISE EXPECTING AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO TRY TO
FILL IN AT MOST SITES EXCEPT ERIE FROM AROUND 10-15Z BUT THERE
IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL NOT DEVELOP. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN NW OHIO
TOWARDS 22Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KNOTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCT
SHRA AND TSRA...THEN RETURNING AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR WINDS WEST
THIRD. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER OFF SHORE GIVEN STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF THE COOLER WATER BUT CLOSE TO SHORE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY EVENING. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

937 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT AND MAKE A FEW
OTHER MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 02-03Z AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH WEDENSDAY MORNING. INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY TO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. /CC

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.

CC/DW/WRIGHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

354 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 300-400 MB WIND PROGS INDICATE THAT A
WELL-DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING NE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 45-50 KT
JETLET CROSSES NRN AND WRN PENN.

ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE
GROWING CAPE VALUES /LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO PRODUCE INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE GREATEST CHC
OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA.

FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KCBE TO KSEG AND KAVP LINE...THE
PERIOD THROUGH 21Z SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AT THE SE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...AND A
RIBBON OF HIGHEST 850 MB THETA-E AIR ADVECTING EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS THERE LATE TODAY.

SPC PAINTS THEIR MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSRA ACRS ROUGHLY THE WRN
HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS IN TSRA.

TEMPS ARE NEARING THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPR 70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARM AND
TRANQUIL CONDS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY ALTO CU CLOUDS.
SOME LOWER OROGRAPHICALLY GENERATED CLOUDS AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS WHERE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
AROUND 10Z.

HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN TEMPS...WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES.

A FEW ILL-DEFINED/VERY WEAK AND SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE HEAT OF THIS SOUPY
AIRMASS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 20 PERCENT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. MDL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE W
COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA.

GEFS MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES WED
AFTN. HOWEVER...MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LYR SHEAR ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE LATEST MDL DATA...SO THE SVR WX
THREAT JUST MRGL...AND THAT`S WHAT SPC COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF
THE CWA WITH IN THEIR DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S- L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. EXPECT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH PA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...REDUCING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
IMPLIES DRIER WX AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR RAINY WX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG AN
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY/MONDAY
AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
SOUTH OF PA.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME AT MOST SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF
3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLIGHTLY LONGER...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND BORDERLINE VSBYS IS FCST INVOF KJST AND KBFD BETWEEN
08-15Z AS SFC WINDS VEER MORE TO A FAVORABLE WSW UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

BRIEF...15-30 MINUTE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SIMILAR VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA AND SCTD TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN AIRFIELD...BUT MAINLY IMPACTING AIRFIELDS
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN.

BASED ON THE FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE OF THE TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE
FIELD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION
TSTMS IN MOST OF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...BUT DID INCLUDE VCTS AT
KUNV AND KIPT WHERE THE LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER AND GREATEST DEG OF INSTABILITY.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY
OF PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE DEFINED TSTM RISKS THIS WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT PRESSING
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA...MAINLY 19Z SAT-01Z SUNDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

252 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE GREATEST CHC
OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA.

SPC PAINTS THEIR MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSRA ACRS ROUGHLY THE WRN
HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS IN TSRA.

TEMPS ARE NEARING THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPR 70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN TEMPS...WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S- L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD KEEP
WARM/HUMID AIR OVR CENTRAL PA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT
SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IMPLIES
DRIER WX /ESP NORTHERN PA/...AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA IN ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES WORKING ACROSS S ONTARIO INTO N
NEW ENG.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY BY NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF RAINY WX COULD FOLLOW LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME AT MOST SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF
3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLIGHTLY LONGER...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND BORDERLINE VSBYS IS FCST INVOF KJST AND KBFD BETWEEN
08-15Z AS SFC WINDS VEER MORE TO A FAVORABLE WSW UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA...MAINLY 19Z SAT-01Z SUNDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1213 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA THROUGH TODAY.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 300 MB WIND PROGS INDICATE THAT A WELL-
DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING NE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45-50 KT
JETLET CROSSES NWRN PENN.

ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE
GROWING CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO PRODUCE
RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSRA AFTER 17Z.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS OF OUR CWA FOR THE GREATEST CHC OF SHOWERS/SCTD
TSRA. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KCBE TO KSEG AND KAVP
LINE...THE PERIOD THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AT THE SE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL SEE TRACKING NE ACROSS WEST VA AND THE BLUE RIDGE
COUNTRY OF VA. EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO DEVELOP INVOF FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND WITHIN HOLES IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
DECK/.

RAMPED UP POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES
BY 30-50 PERCENT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH ACROSS THE SE ZONES
WHERE PWATS ARE STILL UNDER 1.5 INCHES AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WERE
PRESENT.

WILL TAKE A LOOK AT NEWEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA AND MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEAN SREF/GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTN AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN
MTNS OF PA WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MDT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE
AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. SPC HAS SHIFTED THEIR MARGINAL RISK
OF SVR TSRA BACK ACRS CENTRAL PENN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A GOOD DEAL OF CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARM AND
TRANQUIL CONDS. HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN
TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. MDL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE W
COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA. GEFS
MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES WED AFTN.
HOWEVER...MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC DEEP LYR SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN MDL DATA...SO SVR WX THREAT JUST MRGL. MCLDY SKIES WILL
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN
THE M70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD KEEP
WARM/HUMID AIR OVR CENTRAL PA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT
SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IMPLIES
DRIER WX /ESP NORTHERN PA/...AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA IN ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES WORKING ACROSS S ONTARIO INTO N
NEW ENG.

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME AT MOST SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF
3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

BRIEF 15-30 MINUTE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SIMILAR VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA AND SCTD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN
AIRFIELD. BASED ON THE FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE OF THE TSRA EMBEDDED IN
THE FIELD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. UPCOMING 18Z TAF PACKAGE
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP...AS THE AREA OF GREATEST
TSRA DEVELOPMENT/CONCENTRATION CAN BE PINNED DOWN.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR
1.7 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT
1230Z SHOWING ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST
AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL VORT MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF
SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WILL
CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE REST OF THE LATE MORNING
HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING...LG SCALE
FORCING BECOMES QUITE VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...HEATING OF MOIST AIR
MASS WITH PWATS 2-3SD ABV CLIMO SHOULD YIELD SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN WITH LATEST NAM AND SREF MEAN SFC-CAPES MAXING
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE 50 PCT POPS
PAINTED. EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY AND A DIMINISHED CHC OF CONVECTION UP THERE. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION
OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MEAN SREF/GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTN AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THUS...SPC OUTLOOK
KEEPS THE MRGL RISK WEST OF OUR CWA.

EARLY AM IR LOOP SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL DAWN MSUNNY
TODAY. HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BASED
ON MDL SOUNDINGS. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY
DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARM AND
TRANQUIL CONDS. HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN
TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY BY NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG
MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF RAINY WX COULD FOLLOW LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA.

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM
NEAR KJST TO NORTH OF KIPT. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CAUSE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THAT
REGION.

VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY
LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD
INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

616 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF E COAST RIDGE IS
TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR 1.7 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT 09Z SHOWING SCT
SHRA DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL
VORT MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE AM HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING...LG SCALE FORCING
BECOMES VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS WITH PWATS
2-3SD ABV CLIMO SHOULD YIELD SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTN. BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE 50 PCT POPS PAINTED. EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW SHOULD RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND A DIMINISHED
CHC OF CONVECTION UP THERE. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MEAN SREF/GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTN AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THUS...SPC OUTLOOK
KEEPS THE MRGL RISK WEST OF OUR CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT
AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF RAINY WX COULD FOLLOW
LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM
NEAR KJST TO NORTH OF KIPT. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CAUSE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THAT
REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

451 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...THE NORTH END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER GEORGIA
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN LIKELY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR OVER
THE NE GA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER THE SOUTH END OF THAT LINE IS
REORGANIZING ALONG A GUST FRONT OR POSSIBLY SEA BREEZE FRONT.
WHILE THE VORT MAXES ASSOC WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO PASS WEST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...MCVS
FROM THESE LINES WILL SWING OVER OUR CWFA. LATEST PROGS STILL
FEATURE INCREASING CAPE VALUES THRU THE EVENING WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT HIGHER ALOFT. REVISED
POPS TO BRING THE NRN LINE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AS WELL
AS TO REFLECT BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WRN UPSTATE WITH THIS NEW
SEGMENT ORGANIZING. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINES...BUT FROM THE LOOK OF THE CU
FIELD ON VIS SAT...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK CONGESTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT JUST THE UPSTATE AS CELLS DEVELOP
OVER THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS AND MOVE N.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN
MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD
BY 02Z. SHRA ARE MORE LIKELY THAN TSRA WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH UPPER FORCING AND LINGERING
MUCAPE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TSRA WITHIN A RAIN SHIELD AS
THE FEATURES MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF
DAYBREAK IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER
IN THE VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
STEADY S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 98% MED 73% HIGH 82%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 88% HIGH 92%
KAVL HIGH 85% HIGH 89% HIGH 86% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 87%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN MAKING
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY
03Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 99% HIGH 81% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 80% HIGH 89% HIGH 85% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 99% MED 76% HIGH 94%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

802 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN EARLY UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
SOONER FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKIES...ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY WEAKENING. HRRR MODEL DID NOT DEPICT THESE LEAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DOES SPREAD THE LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER NRN AL NE INTO SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH 23Z TEMPS AND DEW
POINT TEMPS. WILL UPDATE LATER TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND
FRESHEN GRIDS AGAIN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 82 66 85 / 50 50 20 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 81 65 83 / 20 30 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 81 64 83 / 30 40 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 82 63 82 / 10 30 30 30

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

343 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG I-65 CURRENTLY. SO FAR...NO DAMAGE WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT CAPES ARE
INCREASING TOWARD THE PLATEAU. THUS...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR OUR EC AND NE COUNTIES. HRRR DATA
SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS
ADVANCING LINE...LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN
AREAS PRIOR TO 04Z. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 1SM.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AND THU. WE
STILL...HOWEVER...WILL SEE CAP EROSION BY 18Z. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS WILL BE
KEPT LOW.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY 1 DEGREE TONIGHT AS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE.

IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY AS WELL. THOUGH THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA...IT WILL APPROACH US AND
INCREASE OUR SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE EXT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 65 87 63 88 / 40 30 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 65 87 63 86 / 20 30 30 30
CROSSVILLE 63 79 61 82 / 60 30 30 30
COLUMBIA 64 85 63 87 / 40 30 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 64 83 63 85 / 20 30 30 30
WAVERLY 66 87 63 86 / 20 30 30 30

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXISTING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE EXTENT OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AS NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH 18Z THEN FROM INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

257 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MID STATE CLEAR OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BUT
WEAKENING MCS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT SPEED OF MCS BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 06Z HRRR TIMING/DEPICTION OF
MCS FALLING APART AS IT ENTERS THE MID STATE. LATEST THINKING
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH WEAKENING MCS AFFECTING
WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE. WILL SHOW POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY VERSUS CATEGORICAL
DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE SUPERBLEND
CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS
TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO JUST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
STATE...AND SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND LACKLUSTER CAPE. STILL...A FEW
STRONG OR BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH POPS
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THUS ANTICIPATED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY BEFORE DECREASING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL MICROBURST WIND/HAIL RISK
COULD BE SEEN EACH DAY AS CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL BUT BULK SHEAR
WEAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT 00Z
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 66 86 66 / 70 40 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 79 65 84 65 / 70 30 40 30
CROSSVILLE 77 64 80 64 / 70 60 50 30
COLUMBIA 79 65 83 65 / 70 40 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 78 65 82 65 / 70 40 40 30
WAVERLY 78 66 84 65 / 70 30 40 30

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 66 82 66 / 80 80 70 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 65 81 64 / 70 70 70 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 65 81 65 / 70 70 70 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 64 79 62 / 60 70 70 50

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

24/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1144 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BR AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR AT CKV/CSV...WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO IFR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT AT TIMES.

MOST PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 27/00Z...WITH AREAS OF BR
FORMING BY 27/06Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SHWRS LEAVING THE MID STATE...AND WITH NO INDICATIONS FROM SHORT
RANGE MODELS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING BACK INTO MID STATE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS FROM THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 72 85 70 / 20 30 40 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 86 72 85 70 / 20 30 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 30 30 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 71 82 68 / 20 30 50 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 70 86 72 / 20 50 60 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 72 84 69 / 20 30 40 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 30 40 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 72 84 69 / 20 30 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 40 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 74 86 72 / 20 30 30 40 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 86 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 30 40 30 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 71 82 68 / 40 40 50 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 70 86 72 / 30 30 60 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 72 84 69 / 40 40 40 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 40 40 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 72 84 69 / 30 40 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 85 71 / 20 40 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 40 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 74 86 72 / 20 30 30 40 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME...GOING TO ALLOW FF WATCH FOR HARRIS AND
FORT BEND COUNTIES TO CONTINUE THRU 6 PM AS THERE ARE COME CELLS
NEARBY. ATTENTION TURNS TO N AND W TX AS CONVECTION FIRES THERE.
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS DISSIPATING BEFORE EVEN
REACHING SE TX. HOWEVER...LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REMNANTS TO MOVE INTO N & E PARTS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FCST AND LET NEXT SHIFT UPDATE WITH TRENDS.

WX ON WED & THURS WILL CONSIST OF WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE NORMAL
EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS AROUND HERE. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY
TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW
GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK
INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BACK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REALLY NOT A BIG FAN OF SEEING THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS TRYING TO BRING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SE TX LATE SAT AND SUN. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. 47

.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT THE
STRONG TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE WILL HELP MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THIS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE WX PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE...OTHER CONCERNS
THESE SEVERAL DAYS INVOLVE RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TIDES. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH
TIDE NEAR AND ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 30 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
MATAGORDA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

121 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF
VFR MAY OCCUR. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A LINE
OF TSRA/SHRA OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE IT TOWARD THE I-35 TAF
SITES BY 12Z. WE THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY...HENCE NO MENTION IN
THOSE TAFS. TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 20Z...SO INCLUDED
MENTION. 3-5SM BR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16-17Z WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND TO ADJUST POPS FOR TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
PICK UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SUPERCELL OR
TWO. BOTH MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP THESE STORMS OVER MEXICO...BUT
WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS IT IS WORTH WATCHING. THE MORNING DEL RIO UPPER AIR
SOUNDING WAS UN-CAPPED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE
NEAR 4000 J/KG. WHAT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED TODAY IS
THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

RIVER FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS OUR ARE WITH
MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING ONGOING ALONG THE
COLORADO...FRIO...GUADALUPE...SAN MARCOS...AND NUECES RIVERS.

THERE ARE TWO SURVEY TEAMS CURRENTLY OUT SURVEYING DAMAGE REPORTS
FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. ONE WENT OUT TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
WHILE THE OTHER WILL BE VISITING BASTROP COUNTY AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE THESE TEAMS RETURN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 72 86 71 / 30 20 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 88 72 85 71 / 30 20 20 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 20 10 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 86 71 84 70 / 20 20 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 74 87 71 / 30 20 20 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 71 85 71 / 30 20 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 74 87 72 / 30 20 20 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 85 71 / 30 20 10 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 88 73 86 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 89 74 86 73 / 30 20 20 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 89 74 87 73 / 30 20 20 30 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1042 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND TO ADJUST POPS FOR TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
PICK UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SUPERCELL OR
TWO. BOTH MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP THESE STORMS OVER MEXICO...BUT
WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS IT IS WORTH WATCHING. THE MORNING DEL RIO UPPER AIR
SOUNDING WAS UN-CAPPED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE
NEAR 4000 J/KG. WHAT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED TODAY IS
THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

RIVER FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS OUR ARE WITH
MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING ONGOING ALONG THE
COLORADO...FRIO...GUADALUPE...SAN MARCOS...AND NUECES RIVERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 73 87 72 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 72 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 86 70 84 / 20 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 74 86 / 30 20 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 88 73 86 / 30 20 20 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 87 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 74 88 73 87 / 20 20 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 74 88 73 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 88 73 87 / 20 20 20 20 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

207 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE FORECAST.
ALL THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN AND THOSE ARE DISSIPATING. WE LET THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONCERNED WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOWERED VIS. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR AND LIFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS DUE TO
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS. UNSURE HOW FAR EAST THE TSRA
WILL SPREAD BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION IN KSAT/KSSF FOR TIME
FRAME IN WHICH IT WOULD OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. AFTER
18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AND PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS...MOST NOTABLY THE LAST FEW HRRR AND RAP
RUNS...ARE GENERATING BACKBUILDING STORMS IN MEXICO THAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AFTER 8-9Z...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWEST...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND A TONGUE OF MOIST AIR
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY SANDWICHED BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR ON BOTH
SIDES OF IT MAY HELP IN INITIATING THESE STORMS. THIS AREA DID NOT
RECEIVE CONVECTION EARLIER...SO IT MAY NOT BE WORKED OVER DESPITE
THE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING A CAP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE
HILL COUNTRY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST...WITH A STRONGER CELL OVER BLANCO COUNTY. IT IS CONCERNING
THAT THESE STORMS ARE STILL ABLE TO FORM DESPITE AN ENVIORMENT
THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WORKED OVER FROM AN INSTABILITY
STANDPOINT...BUT SOME HI- RES MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS
ERODING AND CAPPING WAS VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT ON THE 00Z DRT
SOUNDING. THUS...WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
WELL. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS WELL BELOW ONE INCH PER HOUR IN SOME PLACES DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO
BE ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FINALLY...A TORNADO WATCH WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11 PM CDT FOR
KARNES...DEWITT...AND LAVACA COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THIS WATCH FURTHER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
STORMS HAVE CLEARED ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH
01Z FOR SAT/SSF/AUS IN CASE BACKBUILDING STORMS PRODUCE A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE. A MESO LOW HAS FORMED BEHIND THIS LINE...WHICH
WILL CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS AT SAT/SSF/AUS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AMENDMENTS IF THEY INCREASE
ABOVE 10 KTS. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL HELP DRY OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR
CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR BY 7Z AT SAT/SSF/AUS AND MVFR BY 9Z AT DRT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-14Z AT
SAT/SSF/AUS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CAUSED A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW
TORNADOES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IN THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. A FLASH
FLOOD EMERGENCY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN WILLIAMSON AND
TRAVIS COUNTIES AFTER 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN TWO HOURS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES
PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE RATES SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO MERGE INTO
A LINE OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AND AREAS
NORTH BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE PWAT
VALUES TO DECREASE AND END THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OUR WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES...BUT CONTINUES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE 50-55 KT
SEEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HILL COUNTRY...HELICITY VALUES
ABOVE 200-300 M^2/S^2 AND LOW LCLS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THIS AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE DISCRETE
CELLS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO AND EXPANDING INTO NE TX AND SE
OK. THUS...A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO METRO.

DRY AIR WILL GRACIOUSLY FILL INTO THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO THAT
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SOIL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
80S MAY STILL ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...GIVING THE REGION A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS FOR A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL STILL CARRY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOIL MOISTURE WITH HIGHS NEARING 90
DEGREES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TO BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN ENERGY FROM
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT ALSO
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL NOT BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND STICK AROUND
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. CONSIDERING THAT A FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES MAY
SLIP INTO THE REGION TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 73 87 72 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 72 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 74 86 / 30 20 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 87 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 88 73 86 / 30 20 20 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 87 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 74 88 73 87 / 30 20 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 74 88 73 86 / 30 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 88 73 87 / 30 20 20 20 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONCERNED WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOWERED VIS. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR AND LIFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS DUE TO
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS. UNSURE HOW FAR EAST THE TSRA
WILL SPREAD BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION IN KSAT/KSSF FOR TIME
FRAME IN WHICH IT WOULD OCCUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. AFTER
18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AND PREVAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

FINALLY...A TORNADO WATCH WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11 PM CDT FOR
KARNES...DEWITT...AND LAVACA COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THIS WATCH FURTHER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 73 89 72 84 / 20 20 20 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 73 89 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 89 73 87 / 20 20 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 88 71 84 / 20 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 91 73 86 / 20 20 20 30 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 71 88 71 84 / 20 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 89 73 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 89 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 75 90 74 87 / 20 20 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 74 89 73 86 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 89 74 86 / 20 20 20 20 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

926 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 926 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM RALEIGH
NORTH CAROLINA TO EMPORIA VIRGINIA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN THE AREAS OF RICHER CAPE ABOVE 1K AND STRONG
THETAE/ADVECTION ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL MISS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ENDED
QUICKLY WITH THE MORE STABLE AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY SURVIVES ITS MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS
OF SOLAR HEATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SWODY2 (CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY 2 FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL) KEEPS
OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OR STORMS LOCKED ON TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGUA TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN. THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. FIRST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...UPSTREAM
CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS KY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TN...MOVING
ENE. THIS SHOULD BRING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE INDICATED SO IN THE TAFS...ALL
VFR. NEXT ISSUE IS FOG. MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST IN GENERATING IFR-
LIFR FOG TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. SYNOPTICALLY...THIS DOES NOT
MAKE SENSE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
1.35...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING FURTHER DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND A LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT MOST SITES. IF ANY
FOG DEVELOPS...CANNOT SEE MUCH WORSE THAN 4-5SM BR...MAINLY AT
LWB/BCB/LYH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOR THU...LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND
17Z. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT MORE THAN WE
SAW TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH STILL
MVFR CIGS AT THIS POINT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR
PROB30 JUST YET...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ONE SITE
WILL BE MORE FAVORED THAN ANOTHER...OTHER THAN KDAN...WHICH SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST CONVECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT EVEN THERE IT IS A
POSSIBILITY. AGAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
IN TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE THIS FAR OUT.

WINDS LOOK VERY CHAOTIC THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. SW WINDS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AND POTENTIALLY BECOME LIGHT SE EARLY
THU...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE COMPASS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA...THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE IS
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION AFT 13Z.
STILL...SPEEDS MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

620 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER AND AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KBLF-KLWB
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBCB IF SHRA/TSRA SPILL FARTHER EAST.
THUS WILL CARRY A PREVAILING VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO IN MORE IN THE
WAY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PENDING IF A SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW EXPECTING MAINLY 4-6K
FT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE AT
KLYH/KDAN WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL AT KROA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS 14-18KTS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING BY TO THE NE. THIS MAY LEAVE
MOST OF THE REGION IN VFR UNDER MID DECK WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR IN
FOG THIS EVENING WHERE EARLIER RAIN OCCURRED. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW TO THE SW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SPREADING IN FROM THE SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB LATE AND EAST TO KBCB/KROA AROUND DAYBREAK IF NOT
A BIT SOONER. THUS INCLUDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IN SHRA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THIS PERHAPS SLIDING INTO
KROA/KLYH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BRING IN
STRATUS SO HELD OFF GOING THAT PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY
LIKELY REDEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH TRICKY AS COULD SEE MORE
DRYING ALOFT OVER THE WEST BY AFTERNOON PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OUT EAST PENDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN VA THU BEFORE WASHING
OUT...SO ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG- EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS REMAINING SW 5-10KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

313 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND

837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S. SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low. The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 79 57 82 59 85 / 20 10 10 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 78 54 82 56 83 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Pullman 46 75 52 82 56 83 / 20 20 20 20 20 20
Lewiston 52 83 58 88 63 90 / 20 10 10 20 20 20
Colville 53 82 54 83 54 86 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Sandpoint 50 78 51 81 52 80 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Kellogg 47 76 49 81 53 81 / 20 40 40 30 30 20
Moses Lake 53 86 58 90 59 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 59 86 64 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 51 86 56 87 54 90 / 20 10 10 20 20 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1034 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED. WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN. BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO. CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE FAR
SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE MTW TAF SITE
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WILL KEEP VCSH AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER NORTHERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

852 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION CORFIDI
VECTORS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THEM INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS WELL...SO WILL USE THE HRRR TIMING AND DIMINISHING
TRENDS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

729 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO
WANING INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH AUW/CWA TO SEE IF SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED THERE.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/
LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

319 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AKRON AND LIMON WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. APPEARS CONVECTION MAY DVLP ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NR AN
INCH OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LVL FLOW BY
AFTN STORMS WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WY. PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE INTO NRN CO LATE TONIGHT THERE
MAYBE ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AS A FNT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY...WITH COOLER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HAVE ADDED
THIS DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MAKES ITS
MAIN PUSH INTO THE STATE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MUCH...EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WITH CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 9000 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASE TO NEAR 11,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BACK DOWN AROUND 10,000 FT AT NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK. FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE FRIDAY EVENING

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL KEEP STABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AT
MIDLEVELS AND AFFECT THE HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ...BUT STABLE AIR WILL INHIBIT
THEM MAKING IT TOO FAR.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES....HELPING TO WARM MORE QUICKLY WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
LOOKING AT EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
THIS EARLY JUNE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BOTH GFS AND
EC MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACNW WITH
TRENDS OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER APPROACHING THE STATE AGAIN.
HOWEVER THE JET SEEMS TO STAY FURTHER NORTH THAN WE`VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THIS MONTH...SO NOT AS WET AND COLD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A SFC LOW WAS JUST EAST OF DIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WNW WINDS. A
NARROW STRATUS DECK HAS FORMED JUST BEHIND THE LOW WITH CEILINGS
DOWN TO 800 FEET AT DIA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER UNTIL 12Z BEFORE BREAKING UP. AS FOR TSTM CHANCES IT
APPEARS BEST CHC WOULD BE IN THE 19Z-22Z RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROND 15Z AND THEN LIGHT ESE BY MIDDAY. BY 20Z
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND THEN TREND BACK TO MORE SSW BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS DRAINAGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S UPSLOPE EVENT WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD. EXPECT 0.25-0.5" OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT WESTER PLAINS. AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH MAY ADD MORE WATER TO THE AREA RIVERS...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT THAT GREAT.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AS
WELL AS THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

306 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
916 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO MATCH HOURLY OBS TRENDS.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
TRENDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
247 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY...
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR FRI WILL BE ON PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SOME SLOWING TO THE DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE...WITH MID-LVL HEIGHTS NOT BEGINNING TO FALL UNTIL AFT
DAYBREAK FRI. THE MORE POTENT LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL BE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRI...THEN FORMING A SFC WAVE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT WITH
THE MINOR DELAY IN DEPARTING RIDGE...THIS MAY PROVIDE A WEAK BUCKLE
TO THE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE ONLY TEMPORARILY FRI MORNING. BY
MIDDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIFTING EAST...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO THIS FEATURE. DEW POINTS WILL HOVER IN
THE LOW/MID 60S...AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. 850MB V-WIND
COMPONENT SUGGESTS WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG...SO AT THIS TIME
WOULD NOT SUSPECT AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
GROWTH IN CONVECTION TO BE VERY LARGE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER. WITH THE UPSTREAM MID-LVL
VORT STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL CANADA...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO FURTHER ENHANCE. THIS COULD AID IN
PRECIP PRODUCTION WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIDING OVERHEAD FRI
NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE A CHALLENGE FRI...GIVEN THE THICK SOLAR
SHIELDING POISED TO LIMIT SFC HEATING. THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ABSORB ANY HEAT...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO WARM AND
PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES TO
REFLECT THIS INTO THE UPR 70S...MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH HAVE HELD
ONTO THE 80 TO LOW 80S RANGE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO
PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AT THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TRANSITIONS INTO A RELATIVELY FLAT WEST-EAST FLOW BY TUE/WED
OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE TEMPS
ABRUPTLY CHANGEING FROM EARLY SUMMER TO MID-SPRING...WITH A STOUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT MIDDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND BLEED THE MUCH COOLER MARINE AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN SAT/SUN. HIGHS SAT MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE UPR 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH ONLY
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

WITH FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT FLAT TOWARDS MON/TUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...THIS WILL HELP TO FLUSH THE SFC RIDGE EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY
RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
CURRENTLY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRY STRETCH AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS MAY
BEGIN TO NUDGE UP CLOSER TO TUE/WED. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL
FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED ARE CURRENTLY LOW.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* ESELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAKE
BREEZE PASSAGE.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NRN IL/IN/SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OF TO CALM/LGT AND VRBL. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IS QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH ECNTRL WI AND CNTRL LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING OUT AHEAD. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN IS WEAKENING AND MOVING SELY ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL MISS THE TERMINALS...EVEN GYY. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT BY EARLY
MORNING...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL HELP
TURN WINDS TO PREVAILING SELY BY DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KT. THE WEAK SELY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THE
EXPECTED PATTERN...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST AND
INCREASING TO ARND 10KT.

AS THE SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDER
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING LOW AND MID CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING AND SPEED/DIRECTION
FOLLOWING LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
247 AM CDT

WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOR THE BULK OF TODAY. THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS WINDS
INCREASE. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STRETCHES NORTH TO JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THSI BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO INCH EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRI MORNING...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT...HELPING TO INCREASE A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES
SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TOUCH ON THE WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER A
GALE WATCH MAY STILL NEED TO BE ISSUED. THE STRONG WINDS COUPLED
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EASILY BUILD WAVES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. COOL AIR AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...LIKELY MAINTAINING LARGER
WAVES ALONG THE IL/IN NEARSHORE WATERS.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1241 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
916 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO MATCH HOURLY OBS TRENDS.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
TRENDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

RODRIGUEZ

.LONG TERM...
307 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* ESELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAKE
BREEZE PASSAGE.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING AND SPEED/DIRECTION
FOLLOWING LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. EAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.

KJB

.MARINE...
225 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015