Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/27/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

1250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF TEXAS...SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING AND WILL AT TIMES BE IFR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 80 66 82 / 80 70 20 40
CAMDEN AR 68 85 69 87 / 90 50 30 40
HARRISON AR 62 80 63 81 / 80 30 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 83 69 85 / 90 40 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 84 68 86 / 90 50 30 40
MONTICELLO AR 68 83 68 86 / 90 80 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 64 82 67 84 / 90 40 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 81 64 83 / 80 50 30 40
NEWPORT AR 67 80 67 83 / 80 80 20 40
PINE BLUFF AR 68 82 68 85 / 90 60 30 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 83 66 85 / 80 40 40 40
SEARCY AR 65 81 65 84 / 80 60 30 40
STUTTGART AR 66 83 68 84 / 80 70 30 40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

AVIATION...51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 80 65 80 66 / 40 80 70 20
CAMDEN AR 82 68 85 69 / 80 90 50 30
HARRISON AR 79 62 80 63 / 30 80 30 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 67 83 69 / 70 90 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 66 84 68 / 50 90 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 83 68 83 68 / 80 90 80 30
MOUNT IDA AR 78 64 82 67 / 70 90 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 63 81 64 / 30 80 50 30
NEWPORT AR 82 67 80 67 / 40 80 80 20
PINE BLUFF AR 82 68 82 68 / 70 90 60 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 65 83 66 / 50 80 40 40
SEARCY AR 81 65 81 65 / 40 80 60 30
STUTTGART AR 83 66 83 68 / 50 80 70 30
&&

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

143 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION...READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN THE DESERT WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...THE FOOTHILLS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80...WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

IN THE PAST HOUR...SHOWERS BEGAN TO FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN
MARIPOSA...MADERA...AND FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH NO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS OF YET. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TULARE
COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE LAPS 20Z CAPE
ANALYSIS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 300 AND 600 J/KG...WITH ISOLATED
AREAS JUST OVER 800 J/KG. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY...RESULTING IN A
SUBTLE WARMING TREND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES EACH
DAY. SIERRA NEVADA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAKING THESE TWO DAYS
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN
HIT THE CENTURY MARK. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 8 AN 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO DO NOT HIT 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST TIME BOTH CITIES HAVE NOT WARMED TO 100 DEGREES
IN THE MONTH OF MAY SINCE 2012.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A COOLING
TREND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:2014 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:2014 40:1953
KFAT 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998

KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
KBFL 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC DATE HI-MIN TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY 73 1991 76
MCO 26-MAY 74 1943 74
MLB 26-MAY 78 2014 79
VRB 26-MAY 76 1991 76

DAB 27-MAY 75 1998
MCO 27-MAY 76 1953
MLB 27-MAY 76 1986
VRB 27-MAY 79 1991

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

952 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z RAOB ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER
TROUGH/MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN...WITH EVIDENCE
OF A SMALLER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
IA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD OF S/WV ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...WITH TRENDS
APPEARING TO BE FAIRLY WELL HANDLED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WEAK MUCAPE ACROSS NE MO/EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL...WITH SOME FAIRLY
PERSISTENT CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CELLS NORTH OF MACOMB. THUS
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS
MID-LEVEL WAVE(S) AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND SW WI WITH A VORT MAX OVER
IOWA. THE LOWS COLD FRONT REMAINS A BIT FURTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL IA
AND EASTERN KS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL WI AND ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG
OF CAPE IS OVER I-39...BUT THINKING THAT CAPE IN REALITY IS AROUND
500 J/KG DUE TO LIMITED HEATING. CAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AS THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT THINKING IN
GENERAL THE BREAKS ARE MOVING TOO QUICKLY AND TOO FEW AND FAR BTWN
TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH VALUES AROUND 35-40 KT.

THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS INDIANA
RIGHT NOW. A SECOND SKINNY LINE OF CONVECTION LIES FROM DIXON IL TO
JERSEYVILLE IL WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL CELLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. DUE TO
LIMITED CAPE AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SW AND HELICITY IS MUCH
LOWER SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AS I WAS THIS
MORNING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE AT 1.4-1.7 INCHES SO
ANY OF THE NEW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT WE ARE NOT DONE YET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS EVENING AS THE VORT MAX
APPROACHES. THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST ALONG AND WEST OF
GARY INDIANA TO PAXTON IL LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER AND
NO SEVERE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TONIGHT SO THINKING
WE WILL NOT COOL MUCH...SO KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY TOMORROW BUT NOT AS ACTIVE. A PAIR OF
VORT STREAMERS AND THE LOWS COLD FRONT ROTATE THROUGH AND SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THEM. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THIS VORT STREAMER WOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA...NORTH
OF I-88. PRECIP MAY SINK SOUTH ACROSS DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES IN
THE AFTN...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP WILL
GET.

CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS WEST OF I-
55 BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AS CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE. HAVE TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING SO EXPECTING LAKE COOLING ESPECIALLY AT WAUKEGAN.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOCAL AREA WILL START OUT FIRMLY UNDER MID/UPPER RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSISUS BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S CELSISUS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT
DESPITE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND FAIRLY EARLY. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS (ESPECIALLY IL SHORE) IN THE UPPER 60S.

CHANGES WILL START TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GETTING SHUNTED EAST AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE FOCUSED MID
CHANCE POPS INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
FORCING WILL LIFT NORTH AND REFOCUS INTO NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAILORED POPS AS SUCH...BUT THEN A STRONGER WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
LOWER IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER IMPACT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VERY MILD START TO DAY AND WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S...WARMEST
IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA. THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MODEST CAPE
VALUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME WET MICROBURSTS WITH PWAT
VALUES IN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF
MAY. HIGHS ON THE LAKEFRONT ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 50S ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ONLY 60S AND 70S INLAND ON SATURDAY AND
60S ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SO KEPT HIGHER
CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IF TRENDS ON MUCH OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EXPANSIVE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH TO EAST...THOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKEFRONT.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA THRU OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
EVENING. AFTER NARROW AREA OF SHRA CLEARS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM IA
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHRA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AGAIN BY MID
EVENING...BUT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR RFD AND HAVE LEFT OTHER
TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW
LOW/WIDESPREAD CIGS WILL GET AND TIMING...BUT GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TIMING. DID PULL MVFR VSBY AS
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST.
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE TO SLIP INLAND LATE...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT BEHIND
SHIFT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...ONLY VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO A PROB30 DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THRU OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR LAKE BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTH WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER QUEBEC
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH. WINDS WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...THEN A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...THOUGH WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT MIXING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADD AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES
SHOWN ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

908 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW IN SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW-MEDIUM IN LOWER CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

649 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW IN SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW-MEDIUM IN LOWER CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55...BUT THESE WILL BE EXITING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S EAST OF I-57
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ALREADY
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND A LARGER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY AFTERNOON PER THE RAP MODEL...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. HAVE HAD SOME GUSTS
40-45 MPH AROUND DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN ON THE LATEST OBS...BUT THE
HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE HIGH WINDS SHIFTING INTO INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER STILL IN THE
REGION, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
NW. ILX SITUATED IN A GAP AS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOVING OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT IN ALL OF THE MODELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER 18Z TO COVER AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD IT GET THE
CHANCE TO RECOVER/RESTRATIFY. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY GIVE US ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE
END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPED THE POPS
BACK DOWN BEFORE 06Z. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN
MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT. CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SETTING UP CHANCES FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
18-19Z. THE STRONGEST OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY
FROM KCMI...BUT WINDS THERE SHOULD STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
OR SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE
GUSTS MORE IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD
00Z. NEXT PERIOD FOR CONVECTIVE CONCERN APPEARS TO START AROUND
08-09Z WITH STORMS TRACKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...SO
WILL GO WITH VCTS MENTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. TAIL END OF THE RAP
MODEL SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND BUILDING NORTHWARD...AND HAVE ADDED THESE
FOR KBMI/KDEC/KCMI.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1005 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EFFECT PIA/SPI THIS MORNING. FOR OTHER TAF
SITES WILL JUST KEEP VCSH IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PCPN
MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE/BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR
TUE NIGHT...WITH MOVE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXCEPT FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WITH VCTS. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY THIS
MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT THEN TAPER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEN WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD NW IL OVERNIGHT PROMOTING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ASSOCIATED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 1
A.M. INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING
DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY...LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED...AND BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
CONTINUING. NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY. LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS. STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
NIGHT...WHILE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PREDOMINANT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS...DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL. ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 82 63 79 / 20 60 60 60
GCK 55 81 61 80 / 10 50 60 40
EHA 54 81 61 81 / 20 30 50 30
LBL 57 82 62 81 / 10 50 60 60
HYS 56 81 64 79 / 10 50 70 60
P28 60 82 65 79 / 20 50 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
LED TO SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS LINGERING OR SLOW TO BURN OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. SO WILL KEEP SOME 2500 FOOT AGL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
FOR NOW.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR TSRA ACROSS THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE EVENING
HOURS AS HEATING INCREASES. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION OF
GREATEST TSRA COVERAGE...SO PREFER TO GO WITH VCTS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
HIGH...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FOR MOST LOCATIONS EARLY
TUE MORNING.

KETCHAM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 79 61 82 / 30 20 30 30
HUTCHINSON 59 79 60 82 / 30 20 30 30
NEWTON 60 78 60 80 / 30 20 30 30
ELDORADO 60 79 61 82 / 40 20 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 80 61 82 / 30 20 40 30
RUSSELL 56 78 58 82 / 40 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 57 78 58 81 / 40 10 20 30
SALINA 60 80 59 82 / 40 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 60 79 59 81 / 40 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 62 80 62 82 / 50 20 40 30
CHANUTE 62 79 62 82 / 50 20 40 30
IOLA 62 79 62 81 / 50 20 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 62 80 62 82 / 50 20 40 30

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Upper low over the Central Rockies continues to eject smaller pieces
of shortwave energy into Kansas, with one moving out of the forecast
area while the next is on approach. Steepening of lapse rates with
the incoming wave is providing enough instability for thunder to
develop, and model soundings indicate instability will continue to
be on the increase, along with an EML that moves into Eastern
Kansas. Also of influence will be the convective complex out in
west central Kansas moving eastward at this hour. The northern side
of this feature appears to have gust front out ahead of the
convection while the southern side still is along or just behind the
gust front. Latest HRRR dissipates this feature considerably through
the early morning hours, and at this time have opted to carry
diminishing precip chances through the morning to account for this
feature. The Cottonwood, Neosho, and Marias des Cygnes rivers
continue to be in flood, but at this time don`t see lingering heavy
rainfall and will cancel the flash flood watch. Afternoon hours
appear to be a transition period as EML moves in and perhaps
subsidence behind leading shortwave aid in clearing out earlier
convection, a reset for activity in the late afternoon and evening
hours.

Larger scale upper trof moves eastward late this afternoon and
evening, bring surface low and frontal boundary into north central
Kansas. Lapse rates continue to steepen along this boundary, with
NAM12 indicating 2500J/kg of surface based CAPE by 23z near
Concordia, and higher values toward Manhattan, although think this
is somewhat overdone by high dewpoint bias in that area. 0-1km shear
values are in the 10-20kt range, with 0-3km helicity near 150m/s2.
0-6km bulk shear values are less robust, around 25kts, with wind
speeds aloft weaker and more unidirectional making for weaker
profiles. Still enough ingredients to make severe hail and wind of
concern with storms that develop, along with potential for isolated
tornadoes, and has led to an outlook from SPC for a slight risk
across mainly the northwest half of our area. Despite rain chances
early and late, high temperatures still expected to make it back
into the upper 70s. As upper system moves eastward late evening and
overnight, have continued thunderstorm chances across the area, some
of which may continue to be strong to severe.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

By Tuesday morning the main shortwave trough should be lifting into
the upper Midwest, although there are some hints of some weak energy
hanging back across the central and southern plains. As this energy
potentially moves over the region a few of the models are generating
light QPF Tuesday afternoon and overnight with the lack of CIN, but
there is not much focus for lift. On Wednesday after some slight
mid level ridging moves east of the Rockies the lee side trough
develops and return flow becomes better established. Any
thunderstorm complexes that develop over the high plains have a
chance of moving eastward into the forecast area Wednesday through
Thursday night. Then a stronger shortwave drops out of the pacific
northwest into the central Rockies Thursday. As it lifts over the
plains on Friday and Saturday the chances for precip increases,
which has been a consistent solution for the past few days, so
will continue with the likely pops. The GFS is more aggressive
with tracking a decent surface low pressure over eastern KS, while
the ECMWF just brings a robust front through. Either way another
shot of widespread measurable rain looks to be on track for early
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

This forecast period is another tricky setup. Cloud cover should
help limit convection, however, there is a good likelihood that
some convection does develop mainly from Central KS into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. This could impact the
terminals but left VCTS for now. Any activity should end shortly
after sunset this evening. In the meantime, good confidence that
winds will continue out of the South and remain gusty as there has
been some decent mixing taking place. The second half of the TAF
period should be more settled, but still a minor chance of morning
storms perhaps over North central KS into NE.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1011 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOTS OF MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE MAKING TO A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RAPID SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK LINE
AT THIS TIME...FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO NEAR ENID OK TO KPNC.
ALREADY SEEING 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THIS AREA TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARENT HANDLING THIS
OUTFLOW VERY WELL...BASICALLY WASHING IT OUT. BUT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT WILL STILL BE AROUND. NOT ALOT OF
CAPPING...SO WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS THE MAIN STORM MODE. IF A
STORM CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SFC WINDS OUT OF
THE SE AND EAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A
STRAY SUPERCELL TO GET GOING. 0-6KM SHEAR ISNT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20-25KTS...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY...SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND MAYBE EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
TORNADO CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CENTRAL TX MCS MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH CAPPING...COULD SEE
STORM ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO SEE STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING...AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AND ALSO STORMS ACROSS
SE KS...AS AN IMPULSE IN WRN TX BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO SW MO.

ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES OR 120% OF NORMAL AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE CONVECTION.

KETCHAM

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A COMPACT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RACING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.
THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL
INTO EAST/NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED BY 900-800MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND A VORT LOBE SKIRTING NORTHWEST KS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 50-60 MPH WIND REPORTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER INSTABILITY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT MCS WILL LIKELY LAY DOWN A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
OKLAHOMA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH THINKING THERE IS
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO MITIGATE THIS CONCERN.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH
POSSIBLY ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PV ANOMALY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE MULTI-
CELL STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
/NORTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR TUE-WED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RENEWED
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE...POTENTIAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...SPORADICALLY EJECTING SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MID- AMERICA AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING UPPER PATTERN
EVOLUTION...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC EPISODES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNAL IS LOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

ADK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS/NEAR KCNU
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ENDING LIFR CONDITION DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. MEANWHILE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LURKING IN THE POST CONVECTION AIRMASS.
THESE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS FOR FOUR DAYS. HOWEVER OBVIOUS FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
IS LACKING. OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KS MIGHT BE THE TRIGGER. RAP SUGGESTS FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEARING/MIXING IN SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THIS AREA MIGHT GENERATE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
BREAK THE MINIMAL CAP. OTHERWISE A PAIR OF RIPPLES IN UPPER FLOW
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT CONVECTION TONIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...LIMITED
THUNDER CHANCES TO VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WILL CANCEL CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH WAS SLATED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO HOIST ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST RIVERS
STREAMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED RIVER FLOODING.

ADK

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THROUGH MAY 24TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 10.58
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...THESE RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL OF
BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 60 79 61 / 30 30 30 30
HUTCHINSON 79 60 79 60 / 30 30 20 30
NEWTON 78 60 79 60 / 30 40 20 30
ELDORADO 78 60 78 61 / 30 40 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 60 78 62 / 30 30 30 40
RUSSELL 78 57 78 58 / 40 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 57 78 58 / 40 30 20 20
SALINA 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
MCPHERSON 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
CHANUTE 78 62 78 63 / 40 50 30 40
IOLA 78 62 78 63 / 40 50 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

717 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ADK

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ADK

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 60 79 61 / 30 30 30 30
HUTCHINSON 79 60 79 60 / 30 30 20 30
NEWTON 78 60 79 60 / 40 40 20 30
ELDORADO 78 60 78 61 / 60 40 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 60 78 62 / 30 30 30 40
RUSSELL 78 57 78 58 / 40 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 57 78 58 / 40 30 20 20
SALINA 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
MCPHERSON 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
CHANUTE 78 62 78 63 / 60 50 30 40
IOLA 78 62 78 63 / 70 50 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

625 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Weakening area of showers to move through TAF sites early then
dissipate. Think area will see break in the clouds this afternoon
before next round of strong storms develops late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Kept as prevailing for MHK but will start
with VCTS at TOP/FOE until development better refined.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Showers over east central KS are not making it north to I70, so
precip chances will have to wait for later tonight/Monday morning.
Storms over western KS may hold together into eastern KS during
that time. However, confidence is not high so went with VCSH
during morning. Then another chance for storms will occur Monday
evening. Have gone VFR tonight, but MVFR ceilings could develop,
so will have to watch for trends.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1228 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The forecast issue tonight is how much rain will fall on the
flooded areas in the southeast part of the forecast area. At 19
UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the
southern plains. The 12 UTC short-range models were in decent
agreement with the progression of the precipitation this evening.
Heaviest rainfalls should fall across Missouri sparing eastern
Kansas of heavy rainfall. However, it appears likely that a band
of showers and isolated thunderstorms should move through this
evening. The latest HRRR is consistent with previous runs in this
scenario as are the rest of the convective resolving meso-scale
models. Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, it
would not take much rainfall to cause more flooding problems.
Therefore, we will keep the flash flood watch going and we can
cancel it early if necessary.

Additional thunderstorms are developing over southeast Colorado
which the hi-res NAM brings east into our west counties late
tonight. Keep a small POP going along with clouds late tonight and
Monday morning.

Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake
of the ejecting upper trough. Model soundings suggest a decent
cap over the area on Monday with more than modest surface based
CAPE by afternoon. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave should once
again be moving through the southern plains, but it should be too
far south to impact our weather. Meanwhile, the models develop
convection near the synoptic boundary over parts of central KS/NE.
Will keep pops going for late afternoon development over our
northwest counties. The GFS has a deeper 500 mb low over the
central plains by next Sunday while the ECMWF is not as deep and
more progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The weather pattern remains unsettled through the forecast period
and we will have thunderstorms chances almost every period. The
large upper trough over the desert southwest slowly moves into the
central plains during the period. The 12 UTC ECWMF/GFS agree
with the general progression, but there are significant differences
in the details. At the surface, there will be a boundary in the
vicinity which will be heavily influenced by mesoscale influences.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico will remain open for business with
moisture advection into the central Plains. Will keep
thunderstorms chances going with more humid and warm weather close
to seasonal normal`s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

BEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF THE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A LAPS SOUNDING FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN MISSOURI INDICATES THAT THERE IS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
FIGURE THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN FOR LONG. WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BUT
FIGURE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.

ALL EYES ARE ON THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RAKING ACROSS TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NMM AND ARW WRF BOTH
WIPE IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE TRENDING THAT WAY TOO. LIKE WPC QPF AND
FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS RATHER
LOW.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY
AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. FIGURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY WILL
BE GREATEST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

REALLY FEEL THAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...BUT HAVE CHANCY POPS IN THERE ANYWAY. A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND THIS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING THIS DEVELOPMENT CONSISTENTLY FOR AT
LEAST 3 DAYS NOW...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS DEVELOP THAT ACTIVITY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE HIGHS BACK UP IN THE
80S...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY..THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER TO WARRANT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM...MOIST...AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOW EXACTLY THIS
SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL EVOLVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL
ADVERTISE HIGHEST POPS DURING THESE PERIODS.

IT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID...AS HIGHS IN THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 80S WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AS WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...MAKING IT FEEL PRETTY STICKY OUTSIDE WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AS SHOWERS EXIT W KY THIS AFTERNOON CIGS BECOME VFR AND S WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR KEVV/KOWB. S WINDS AOB 10
KTS TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ON TUES AM CIGS/VISBYS BECOME
MVFR AND S WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS...AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ENTER FROM THE WEST AND PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...BP2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND
ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.

EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG
RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE
WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WERE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. THE PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTING MVFR IN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL FIRM UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY
STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE
EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO
LOWER DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS
FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON AMID THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR
THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAFS...A VERY BUSY TAF CYCLE IS EXPECTED AS IFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING...SLOWLY LIFTING INTO
LOW VFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH ADVANCING
CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX INTO OUR WRN TAF SITES IN E TX. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALONG WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE
IN THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ADDING
TO THE RICH MOISTURE POOL TO HELP FUEL AFTERNOON SHWRS AND STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LINGERING SHWRS AND VCTS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
/19/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE QPF OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE NOW NOSING INTO FAR W TX. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
NEAR WINK...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FARTHER SE OVER NRN OLD MX JUST W OF DRT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS SLATED TO LIFT NE
INTO RED RIVER VALLEY AND ECNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR
HEATING AND BNDRY LYR DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE MLCAPES DEVELOPING AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWEST
IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE HIGHER QPF JUST W OF THE REGION ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL TX THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z NAM IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN WITH TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...THAT COINCIDES WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OVER
SW TX/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BKN
SQUALL LINE/MCS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ACCELERATES E INTO
NE TX/SE OK.

THE 06Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR WITH A
SVR MCS DEVELOPING OVER WCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY LATE MORNING...BUT IS
SLOWER TO REACH NE TX UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. THE GFS DOES ALSO DEVELOP
A SFC WAVE LATER TODAY AND AN INTENSIFYING 40-50KT SRLY LLJ OVER
ECNTRL TX...THUS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND FOCUSING A LARGE AREA
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SPREADS E INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
BEFORE THE HEAVIER RAIN SPREADS/GUSTS E OVERNIGHT. THIS SPREAD IN
THE SOLUTIONS RESULT IN 2 POSSIBLE SCENERIOS...ONE WHERE A SVR MCS
DEVELOPS AND ACCELERATES E OVER THE REGION WHEN
HEATING/INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...THUS RAMPING THE SVR THREAT UP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO
MINIMIZING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE OTHER BEING A SVR
MCS...WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE BUT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT ALSO RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD A SFC TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR THE SVR THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE
CONVECTION MAY ACCELERATE E ALONG A COLD POOL...BUT THE SWD EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING AND TRAIN NE ALONG THE SRN
TAIL OF THE TROUGH OVER E TX/NCNTRL LA ONCE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NE INTO NRN AR.

HAVE TONED DOWN QPF/S TO 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE END
TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS 12Z TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGER
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA BY THIS TIME. AN EXTENSION
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH FOR THE ERN ZONES AS SCT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION FARTHER W TUESDAY...THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR E TX/SW AR/WRN LA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIGS SE INTO
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. WEAKNESSES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE MAY
RESULT IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR THIS PERIOD AREAWIDE...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH MID-CHANCE POPS RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT TO OUR W. WHILE TEMPS LOOKS TO HOLD NEAR CLIMO THROUGH LATE
WEEK...GREATER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THANK YOU WFO/S LZK AND TSA FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 69 86 71 / 60 80 40 20
MLU 86 70 83 70 / 60 90 70 20
DEQ 79 66 83 68 / 70 80 20 30
TXK 81 68 85 70 / 70 80 30 20
ELD 84 69 83 70 / 50 90 60 20
TYR 81 68 86 72 / 80 60 20 20
GGG 82 69 86 71 / 70 70 20 20
LFK 84 71 87 73 / 70 60 30 20

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE QPF OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE NOW NOSING INTO FAR W TX. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
NEAR WINK...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FARTHER SE OVER NRN OLD MX JUST W OF DRT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS SLATED TO LIFT NE
INTO RED RIVER VALLEY AND ECNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR
HEATING AND BNDRY LYR DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE MLCAPES DEVELOPING AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWEST
IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE HIGHER QPF JUST W OF THE REGION ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL TX THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z NAM IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN WITH TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...THAT COINCIDES WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OVER
SW TX/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BKN
SQUALL LINE/MCS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ACCELERATES E INTO
NE TX/SE OK.

THANK YOU WFO/S LZK AND TSA FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TERMINALS
ATTM...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE 06Z TAF
PD AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD...AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THIS
ASPECT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD.
/12/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 83 69 85 / 40 70 90 40
MLU 70 83 70 83 / 40 70 90 80
DEQ 69 79 66 83 / 40 70 90 30
TXK 69 81 67 84 / 40 70 90 40
ELD 69 83 68 84 / 40 70 90 80
TYR 71 81 68 85 / 40 80 90 30
GGG 71 82 68 85 / 40 70 90 30
LFK 72 83 70 86 / 40 70 90 50

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.

ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

740 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE IA LIFTING TO THE NE. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM NRN WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. WITH
MLCAPE/MUCPE FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG THE
STRONGER TSRA OVER NE WI HAVE DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY EMBEDDED ISOLD
TSRA WITH THE SHRA. AT THE SFC(19Z)...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SW CORNER OF WI WITH A TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
NE INTO WRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH ONLY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING AND ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE SOUTH BEHIND INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS...THE INSTABILITY MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE VORT CENTER GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE (0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS). OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...IN LINE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV.

WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL DEPART TO THE NE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLEARING AND AFTERNOON
HEATING (TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL PAST THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME...WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PLACEMENT ALONG
WITH COLD FRONT TIMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHILE
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-700 J/KG FROM THE
GFS TO AROUND 800-1100 J/KG FROM THE EC...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND
WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IF SKIES ARE
OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...HELPING TO
REDUCE THE SEVERE RISK. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 TO
40 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. THE RISK AGAIN WILL BE
CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE LAKES.
TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS
NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. CALM
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN CHANCES IS LOW. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
IN BUT DECIDED TO ADJUST THEM BACK TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES IN MIND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW PRES OVER CNTRL WI WILL LIFT NNE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHRA TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH KIWD/KCMX WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH -SHRA JUST BEGINNING AT THOSE TERMINALS...
SHRA AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ENSURE LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VLIFR OVERNIGHT IF THERE
ARE BREAKS IN THE PCPN. EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM
W TO E WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
-SHRA EXIT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WHERE THEY WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

425 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

140 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE WILL HAVE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD COME TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THEN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
FROM 60 TO 65.

THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN MILD...MAINLY 75 TO 80.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE NOTION OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACKED BY
MODEL DATA INDICATING ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY TONIGHT DESPITE A
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

HAVE 60-80 PCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TAPERING
TO 30-40 PCT CHANCES TOWARD INTERSTATE 94. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE GRR FORECAST AREAS. THE NORTHWEST
CWA UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON STANDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
AN EMBEDDED STORM. THE JACKSON AREA COULD BE DRY MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE PICKING UP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS
TO BECOME WINDY ON MEMORIAL DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN WE WILL GET WITHIN A DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...
MOVES IN TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH 06Z BEFORE EXITING NE. THEREFORE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
THE BEST MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN NEAR HIGHWAY 10 TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE I-94 CORRIDOR SHOULD
ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS.

THE WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED TO
ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAINLY DRY WARM SECTOR
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST MI MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN EVENT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVERHEAD WED AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST NWP
TRENDING STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A GOOD PUSH OF
SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIR BY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL SHEARING OUT OF THE WEST U.S. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
BUT THEY HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN NOT SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
(GFS) OR ON SATURDAY (ECMWF). OVERALL ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH
MORE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES.

SEVERE WEATHER WISE...SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND A
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE OVERALL. CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT BETTER WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON VERSUS MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON STRONG S/SW WIND GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ESPECIALLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AS THESE WINDS ARE NOT MORE
THAN 500 FT OFF THE GROUND. SHOULD THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOON
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ABOUT 2K FT OFF
THE GROUND AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SFC GUSTS TO BE THAT
HIGH IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME.

THE CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS TODAY DO NOT LOOK TO BE
CATEGORIZED AS IFR...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AFTERNOON
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM BTL TO LAN AND JXN WHERE GREATER HEATING
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WILL GET AN ADVANCED NOTICE AND ISSUE MARINE HEADLINES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WAVES
WILL BUILD BY MID MORNING MONDAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ANY WILLING TO GO OUT AND SWIM IN MID 40 DEGREE WATER
TEMPS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THREE MAIN ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS ARRIVING NOW. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER MUSKEGON
BASIN AND PERE MARQUETTE BASINS. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE BIGGEST HYDRO CONCERN COULD BE THE THIRD ROUND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A MORE UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF EPS...GEM...AND GFS AGREE THAT 2 TO
3 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMMEDIATE
THREAT WILL BE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FLOODING RISK IS HIGHER NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
ON SMALLER STREAMS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MIZ056-064-071.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ847>849.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD SYNOPTIC LEVEL TROUGH HAS SPREAD ITSELF OUT FROM ESSENTIALLY
THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THERE ARE
NUMEROUS WAVES SPARKING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TEXAS TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE TWO THAT MATTER FOR US ARE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF IOWA AND THE SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT IS DRIVING THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RACING ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

SOME CLEARING ACROSS IOWA TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A NICE CAPE GRADIENT NOW SETUP FROM SE SODAK
ACROSS SRN MN AND INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA. THIS CAPE GRADIENT WILL
BE THE SCENE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A NEW ULM/TWIN CITIES/CHIPPEWA
FALLS LINE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE MEAGER AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...SO FROM THE SEVERE
PERSPECTIVE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE CELLS.

OTHER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL COME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED
OUT FROM SW MN TO NW WI AND THIS WILL BE REMAINING MORE OR LESS
STALLED OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...SO EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. GFSLAMP HAS HAD DENSE FOG
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL DAY FROM NE MN INTO NW WI...SO BROUGHT IN A
FOG MENTION FOR TONIGHT IN THE NE PARTS OF THE MPX CWA...BUT THIS
COULD JUST AS EASILY END UP BEING LOW STRATUS.

FOR TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL BE
HEADING INTO WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
SHIELD OF RAIN UP INTO WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG MCV BASED ON SPIN YOU CAN SEE ON SATELLITE
AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS...SO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF THAT A
PRETTY HEALTHY BURST OF RAIN COMES UP INTO WI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...JUST WENT ALONG WITH THE WPC IDEA THAT THAT BAND WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED
POPS ACROSS MOST OF MN TOMORROW...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO WRN
WI.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF OUR WI COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN PLACE.
A POCKET OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SINKING SOUTH TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S C...SIGNALING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS
AGREES VERY WELL WITH THE RAW 2M TEMPS OFF OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND THE MET/MAV/EURO MOS PRODUCTS. THUS...RAISED
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST PLACES...THOUGH KEPT THEM SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER WI AND FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE MIXING ISN/T QUITE AS
DEEP...925 MB TEMPS ARE COOLEST...AND THERE ARE NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGES.

THE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WRN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO SRN MN/WRN WI. LAPSE RATES ARE
POOR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 35 KT BELOW 350 MB...SO NOT
EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES AND MBE
VELOCITIES LESS THAN 15 KT. THAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

ANOTHER COOL SPELL ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A 1030 MB HIGH
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN SPOTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AS A DIFFUSE SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD DLH...WE HAVE SEEN CIGS IMPROVE
QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AIRPORTS OUTSIDE OF
CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO SEE VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WHEN IT COMES TO TSRA POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA FROM NEAR KULM TO KEAU AROUND 00Z. IT ALSO
DOES AN EFFECTIVE JOB AT CLEARING CLOUDS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IT MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH TSRA DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HOPWRF
MEMBERS SHOW SOME SCT ACTIVITY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF WHERE
THE HRRR HAS IT...SO ADDED A VCSH MENTION FOR RWF/MSP/EAU. AFTER
THAT...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR
HAS SKIES PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND ANY REMNANT
SHOWERS BY 7Z. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFSLAMP...WHICH HAS
CLOUDS CLOSING BACK IN AGAIN. WITH A BAGGY PRESSURE PATTERN PROGGED
TO BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LAMP IDEA...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW
WITH VSBYS AT STC/RNH AS IT IS GOING WITH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO CURRENT TAFS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE END.

KMSP...EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR
STORMS...IF WE SEE THEM...THEN THE 23-03Z WINDOW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING THEM. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS AND THE HRRR
WOULD SAY CURRENT TAF MIGHT BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST AND A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE
TONIGHT...DO THINK MSP EVENTUALLY ENDS UP IFR BY THE TIME THE
MORNING RUSH START TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. FIRST...SPED
UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAND OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL MN TO THE NORTH.
OTHER CHANGE COMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS IS STARTING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS...WITH GOOD SWRLY SFC WINDS NOW IN PLACE
SOUTH OF I-94 TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER MILLE LACS
LAKE. WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP WITH WARMING/DESTABILIZING OF THE
ATMO...WITH THE NAM/RAP SHOWING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE H5 HEIGHT RISES BETWEEN 20 AND 40
METERS...WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...BUT SEEING ENOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD SOME CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POPS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAU BETWEEN 21Z AND 3Z. THE SPC DID BRING
A SLIGHT RISK UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...BUT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBO LOOKS BETTER DOWN ACROSS IOWA...SO THINK OUR SEVERE RISK
IN THE MPX AREA IS WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS GETTING
MARGINALLY SEVERE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF LOW PRES
CENTERS...ONE OVER FAR S-CENTRAL MN AND A SECOND OVER SWRN
NEBRASKA...CONNECTED BY A WEAVING QUASI-STNRY FRONT. FLOW ALOFT
IS DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO THIS UPR LVL SETUP...A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWED PLENTY OF LIGHT-MOD
RAIN TO SPREAD N OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FNT
ALSO LIFTING NWD...PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE SPARSE AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THRU THE MRNG HRS. AM CONCERNED WITH
HOW MUCH DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR AS THE UPR LVL LOW LIFTS OFF TO
THE NNE IN CONCERT WITH THE SFC FEATURES... BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC SETUP OVER THE AREA. THAT SAID...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT
THE DRY SLOTTING BY DROPPING POPS TO THE SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE OVER
SRN MN BY MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING THAT TREND NWD INTO THIS AFTN.
THE FLIP SIDE OF HAVING A DRY SLOT AND POTENTIALLY ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL INSOLATION TO
GROW ANY WORTHWHILE INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. PREVAILING THINKING IS
THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH OCNL SHWRS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC TSTM
MENTION TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. OVERALL...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT TSTMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING AS
THE UPR LVL LOW LIFTS INTO NRN MN AND THE SFC FEATURES SLOWLY MOVE
EWD. IN TANDEM WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
COVERAGE... TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER REMAINING N AND SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
S DUE TO THE DRY SLOTTING. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A 10-DEGREE OR
SO GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPS FROM N TO S ACRS THE CWFA TDA...WITH
CENTRAL MN HOLDING IN THE LWR 60S WHILE HIGHS HIT THE LWR 70S NEAR
THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE CO/KS AREA
AND BRING PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AS
MID LEVEL OMEGA MAX BECOMES FOCUSED IN THAT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP
SATURATION. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND DESCENT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. FORCING IS NOT GREAT BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER PRECIP VALUES
THAN THE UNDER QUARTER INCH CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR 16C. MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY GAVE TEMPS
IN THE AROUND 80 FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECTING DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE GET BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO STILL CARRYING WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...CANADIAN HIGH STILL ON TRACK TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1038 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS EAST MS...WITH
MULTIPLE LOW TOPPED CELLS EXHIBITING ROTATION. A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH MLCAPES MAINLY <1000 J/KG...LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS
THIS REGION. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA RESIDES UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER EAST MS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASE.

GIVEN THE HISTORY OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...
THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME MINOR UPDATES WILL ALSO BE MADE
TO WX WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. /DL/

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSE HAZARDS TO GTR/MEI/HBG/JAN/HKS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO GLH/GWO
AREA TONIGHT. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE
DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT
REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST
HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING
INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER
DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/EC/17/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

648 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Currently monitoring southeast Kansas and western Missouri for the
development of deep convection over the next several hours.

Water vapor over southeast Kansas indicated a disturbance
approaching the Ozarks. Storms have developed out across the Flint
Hills and east of Bartlesville Oklahoma.

We expect this trend to continue into the Ozarks this evening and
overnight.

We started to get data from our evening RAOB, which measured only
42 j/kg of inhibition from a mixed layer parcel. The level of free
convection was measured at 775mb, which will allow future updrafts
to reach into boundary layer moisture at least through the evening
hours, and potentially through the overnight period.

There is a pocket of drier air between 800 and 900mb that would
support a risk for damaging wind gusts with any organized updrafts
tonight. Some cape exists within the hail growth zone, so we can
not ruled out a marginal hail risk either.

0-3 km shear vectors will orient west southwest to east northeast through
the overnight hours ranging from 30 to 40 knots. Any north to
south oriented line segment will be capable of organizing and
producing an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends this evening and tonight.

A weak disturbance was approaching the region from the west, and
is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the
night.

Any storms that directly impacts an airport will temporarily create
lower flight conditions with reduced visibilities. There is also a
risk for damaging wind gusts and a marginal risk for large hail
with any storms that can become organized.

Otherwise look for southerly breezes at 5 to 10 mph over the next
24 hours.

Safe Travels.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

845 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

WE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MANY SPOTS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EVENING DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F
IN MANY AREAS. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF RAW
2 METER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SO WE WEIGHTED
FORECAST LOWS TO THOSE NUMBERS. OTHERWISE...WE MADE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF OTHER CHANGE. CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY WEAKENING...AND THE
00 UTC NAM SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BECOME ISOLATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT BETWEEN 05 AND 11 UTC...WHICH IS AN
IDEA WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. THUS...THERE IS
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SCHULTZ

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER EASTERN WA...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS OVER EASTERN MT...AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE
BLACK HILLS. SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO STRENGTHEN
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING US A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS OF OUR FAR EAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED NOCTURNAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
WHICH MAY LIMIT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECTING ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR FAR
WEST...AGAIN PER THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A NOTCH FOR CENTRAL AREAS
INCLUDING BILLINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERN MT
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT BY EVENING.

LOW TO OUR NW WILL OPEN UP AND SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THU INTO
FRI GIVING US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THOUGH
THE ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...PERIOD OF DEEPENED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FROM
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI MORNING. THIS INCLUDES SHERIDAN COUNTY
WHICH HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN SINCE THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW
THE SREF HERE AND FEEL THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE IF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS A BIT LONGER. HAVE RAISED POPS/QPF ACCORDINGLY FROM THU
AFTERNOON THRU FRI MORNING. THIS PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP WATER
LEVELS ELEVATED ALONG STREAMS EMERGING FROM THE BIGHORNS. ENERGY
WILL EXIT FRI NIGHT AS DRIER CANADIAN SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MT.

TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL STAY CLOSE TO LATE MAY NORMALS.
FRI WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...COURTESY OF NE FLOW DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTH.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SLOW MOVING WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINTING AT SOME DRIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY DECREASE
COVERAGE.

MORE IMPORTANT PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ON THE POSITIONING OF A
SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME CAUSE SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SET UP BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE WARMER SIDE IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PATTERN FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE WATCHING THIS PERIOD FOR A WINDOW FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. BORSUM

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED. INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ROUTES. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/071 050/070 048/063 046/078 052/080 054/080 052/077
54/T 46/T 64/W 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
LVM 045/067 044/066 045/063 044/073 047/076 049/077 046/070
56/T 56/T 64/W 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 053/073 049/073 048/066 045/079 051/082 054/083 053/079
55/T 35/T 64/W 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
MLS 055/072 052/075 048/066 045/075 052/080 056/081 055/077
46/T 43/T 43/W 13/T 32/T 22/T 23/T
4BQ 053/071 050/073 049/063 044/072 051/079 055/080 055/077
46/T 34/T 55/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 23/T
BHK 052/071 049/073 045/062 039/067 045/076 052/077 053/075
27/T 43/T 33/W 11/U 12/T 22/T 23/T
SHR 051/069 046/068 046/060 042/072 047/077 050/077 051/075
65/T 36/T 66/W 22/T 22/T 23/T 34/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GLASGOW MT

1004 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAPPENING
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CHOSE TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERALL WITH BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A BIT MORE GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.

A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR.

RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF KGDV TODAY.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

658 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BEFORE 00Z TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVIDE AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TO LIFT OUT
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT HERE...EACH CREATE
DISTINCTIVE DIFFERENCE QPF PROJECTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTION
TONIGHT WHERE HIGHER POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH.
TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT AS
BUILDING HEIGHTS PERSUE IN THE WEST SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS
THE WEST. TONIGHT COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH CENTRAL.

THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN HIGH WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAINS SUNDAY TO MAINTAIN HIGHER FLOWS. SEE THE LATEST
RIVER AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE CWA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
INTO THE PANHANDLE. NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS OUTCOME GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT KEPT SLIGHT POPS
RUNNING FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA GIVEN RUN
TO RUN PERSISTENCE IN THE MODELS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. INCREASING DPVA ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE CAP WEAKENS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE SIDE TROUGH. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST GIVEN SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AFTER DARK WILL HELP KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT.
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
EC/GEM SHOVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHES IT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ADVECTING IN DRY CONDITIONS IN IT/S WAKE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT STALLS IT OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SREF AND SFC OBS SUGGEST VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SD BORDER.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
RAIN WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS NWRN NEB. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ACROSS COLO
DRIFTING INTO NEB SUPPORTING CONTINUE RAIN MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP A TSTM COMPLEX MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WHATEVER RAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN WOULD LIKELY DECREASE 03Z-06Z
MONDAY EVENING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD/DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW
INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S...WARMEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW
MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA AND ON OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ONTO THE PLAINS.

WEATHER TONIGHT...WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD ROTATE INTO SW NEB OVERNIGHT AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE.

TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWATS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH OR
EVEN HIGH IN THE EASTERN ZONES...MOVEMENT WILL ALSO BE SLOW AND SOME
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE. BEST INSTABILITY IS TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

AS WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...A TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS
GULF COAST DEVELOPS AND BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
ONCE AGAIN. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -6C AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 1500-2500J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KT. HOWEVER...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT.

WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONSIDERATION INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL
NOT GET TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT AND
LIFTS MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SREF AND SFC OBS SUGGEST VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SD BORDER.

WHATEVER RAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN WOULD LIKELY DECREASE 03Z-06Z
MONDAY EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AND PLATTE RIVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
IS HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE NEXT PUSH OF WATER IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ANOTHER RISE OF RIVER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THIS
CREST IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER THE ONE THAT MOVED DOWN THE RIVER
OVER THE PAST WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AND MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL SNOW
MELT AND CAUSE THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY TO
RISE. AT THE GAUGE SITES...NO FLOODING IS EXPECT AT LISCO HOWEVER AT
LEWELLEN NEAR BANK OR MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE FORECAST BRINGS THEM TO THE FLOOD STAGE OF
7.5 FEET.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

852 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS...WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO EXTEND OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAD
INCREASED TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST DURING THE DAY...SUCH THAT
THERE WERE FAIRLY UNIFORM VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LATE AFTERNOON APPROACHED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS... AND ISOLATED THUNDER...OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST LOW-LEVEL STABILITY INCREASING BY AROUND SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A VERY ISOLATED STORM MAY FIND THEIR
WAY ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS U.S. 64 BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR WRF. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE COINCIDENT WITH FORECAST
MOISTENING ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND...AGAIN...HRRR WRF FORECASTS. 0-3KM
SHEAR ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND
GFS... IS LOW...SINGLE DIGITS KNOTS TO TEENS AT MOST...SO AS OF THIS
WRITING DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG...DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFS WOULD
SPREAD QPF FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WRF DEPICT...AND
BASED ON THE STABILITY EVEN ON THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM AND RAP WHICH KEEP
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS ALSO NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...SREF MODEL
PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE HIGH ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER AS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF LOW CLOUDS LATE. SINCE LOW CLOUDS OCCURRED MAINLY TOWARD THE
YADKIN RIVER AND THE TRIAD EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL AIR MASS
HAS MOISTENED...AND 925MB WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
VALUES OF 20 TO 30KT AS FORECAST BY THE GFS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AS A RESULT...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70...SHY OF
ANY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM VALUES FOR MAY 27.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

INSTABILITY OVERALL INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO JUST OVER 1000J/KG
WHILE MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3KM IS GENERALLY 500J/KG OR SO.
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY... TO NEAR -5C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VERSUS ABOUT -3C.
ALOFT...THERE IS FORECAST WEAK AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE AT 850MB...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS FORECAST MODEST LIFT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...AND ANY PIEDMONT TROUGH
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS WELL...LEADING TO A DAY WHERE SCATTERED
MOSTLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ONCE AGAIN...0-3KM SHEAR IS LOW AND 850MB AND 925MB
WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT BY AFTERNOON...10 TO 20KT. HIGHS IN THE
80S.

OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING
STABILITY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOMEWHAT
BACK WEST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL DIMINISH CHANCES EAST TO WEST AND
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONLY TOWARD
THE YADKIN RIVER ESPECIALLY FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY...BUT IF THE
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

THE REMNANT MOISTURE AND SHEAR AXIS FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE BEST MID/UPR ENERGY WILL HAVE
LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST
GFS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER US BY
MONDAY. DESPITE THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING
AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING... POSSIBLY LINGERING TO NEAR NOON WEDNESDAY AT KGSO/KINT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST STILL HAD ENOUGH OF
AN INFLUENCE TO SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER... THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS TO SLOWLY SHIFT
FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC. IN FACT WE MAY SEE A WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
THE UPSTATE OF SC CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT KGSO/KINT (THOUGH IN A WEAKEN STATE) IN THE 04Z TO 08Z TIME
FRAME... WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT... WE
CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS... BUT PROBABILITIES ARE WAY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOISTENING LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT (MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS)... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... KGSO/KINT.
FURTHER EAST STILL THINK WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS... BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT AT
LEAST INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID MORNING... WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT). THUS... GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IS HIGHEST IN THE NW PIEDMONT... WILL
ONLY ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT KGSO/KINT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH A BETTER PROBABILITY TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWEST CHANCES OF THOSE APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY WHEN THE AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE COMPARED TO OTHER DAYS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BSD/DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1256 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR A FEW WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
IN CONTROL. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOIST SLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MID/UPR RIDGE WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THRU THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHCS ESPCLY
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MCLR TO PC SKIES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 6OS WITH AROUND 70
BEACHES. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TUE TO UPR
80S AROUND 90 LATER IN PERIOD...BEACHES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRAD MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...BUT SPEEDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET. LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10
TO 15 KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING MAINLY S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWEST LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND PEAK DURING AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
THRU THE PERIOD...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

959 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY UNDERWAY AS
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS...PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S WELL INLAND.
DID RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. S/SE WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FEW/SCT CU EXPECTED.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10 TO 15
KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS
VERY PATCHY.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS ORIENTATION
AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING OCEAN SHOWERS
ADVECTING ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN
RIDING UP TO OUR SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY
SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.

TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT
MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN
BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4
FT. A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

640 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS
VERY PATCHY.

TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE
CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

CONCERNING FOG POTENTIAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. BUT
THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 4K THAT COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS WELL AS 10-15 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT COULD KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MIXED. WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR IN TAFS ATTM BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

321 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS
ORIENTATION AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH MIDDAY...THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW OCEAN SHOWERS ADVECTING
ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN RIDING UP TO OUR
SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT
COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4 FT.
A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SE ND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WC/NW MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN IDEA STILL HOLDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1237 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 1730 UTC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE WILL BEGIN
TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

856 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KJMS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH FOR
NOW AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

752 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS. I WILL MODIFY THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR THE SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN NW OHIO. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND
WILL BE ADJUSTED UP A FEW DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A
MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOME
OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE
FAIRLY SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THESE VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER 12Z. LIFT WILL
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE EASTERN SITES...STARTING AT MFD/CLE AT 19Z AND REACHING ERI BY
23Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE
EXPECTING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SOME
BR OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP TODAY
TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

659 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED
S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND
NCEP/ESRL HRRR RUNS...LIKELY POPS ARE PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE FAR
WRN ZONES FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING
AND A MORE MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD TRANSITION THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE (AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS) TO A SCATTERED
DISTRIBUTION AS IT HEADS EAST. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER
TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR
NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND
AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS
S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES.
BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW
END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS
MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE
GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR
IN THE HWO.

FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV
MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO
AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT
THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS AT 925MB /2KFT/ ARE 45KT ON AREA RADAR VAD WIND PROFILERS THIS
MORNING SO BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BUT SO FAR WIND SHEAR
COMING UP JUST SHY OF CRITERIA GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. NO DOUBT
SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH THIS LAYER THOUGH BEFORE LOW
LEVEL JET MIXES OUT BY 13Z OR SO. WHEN THIS OCCURS SURFACE GUSTS
WILL COME UP AND HAVE GUSTS TOWARD 30KTS ESP WRN TAF SITES LIKE
DAY/CVG/ILN. WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF A LITTLE BY AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
JET MIXES OUT.

PLUME OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL JUST GRAZE CVG/LUK/DAY THIS MORNING SO
INDICATED P6SM -SHRA IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...THEN A
LULL...THEN SCT SHRA THIS AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING IN ALL
LOCATIONS AS AREAS IS GRAZED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAY BE SOME
THUNDER BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

PLENTY OF VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOIST PLUME IN SWLY
FLOW. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY LATE TONIGHT...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED SOME LIGHT MIST /BR/ AT LUK WITH CIGS
REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TOL/FDY AREA BY 16Z...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...REACHING CLE/MFD TOWARDS 20Z AND CAK/YNG/ERI BETWEEN
21-02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT EVERY SITE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

527 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND
AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO
SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF
HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS
TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN
THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO
DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.

AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION
INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME. A MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
SOME OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE FAIRLY
SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR
FROM THESE VALUES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

137 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST
AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE
OF CONVECTION SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TN. HRRR AND RAP SOLNS SHOW THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING
AND PUSHING INTO ILN/S SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF PCPN AND WITH WITH LACK OF INSTBY HAVE
LIMITED MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURE WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A
LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY
WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
20 KTS.

BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST
PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 82 66 81 / 50 50 30 50
FSM 66 83 67 84 / 50 70 20 50
MLC 66 82 67 83 / 50 60 30 50
BVO 62 82 66 82 / 50 40 30 40
FYV 62 80 64 82 / 50 60 20 50
BYV 63 80 65 81 / 50 60 20 40
MKO 64 81 66 82 / 50 60 20 50
MIO 62 81 64 81 / 40 40 30 40
F10 65 81 66 82 / 50 60 30 50
HHW 67 82 68 83 / 30 50 30 40

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z! LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 61 81 65 / 60 70 10 50
FSM 81 64 81 66 / 50 100 20 40
MLC 78 62 80 67 / 80 80 20 60
BVO 81 59 80 62 / 30 50 10 40
FYV 78 61 78 62 / 30 100 20 30
BYV 80 61 79 63 / 30 100 30 30
MKO 78 61 80 65 / 60 90 20 50
MIO 79 61 79 62 / 30 70 20 50
F10 78 60 80 65 / 70 80 20 60
HHW 78 64 82 68 / 80 80 20 30

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 63 82 65 / 60 40 20 50
FSM 81 64 82 68 / 80 90 30 40
MLC 78 64 82 68 / 90 60 20 40
BVO 81 60 82 62 / 60 30 20 50
FYV 78 62 79 62 / 60 80 30 40
BYV 80 64 80 63 / 50 80 30 40
MKO 78 63 81 66 / 60 60 20 50
MIO 79 63 81 63 / 50 50 20 50
F10 77 61 80 65 / 80 50 20 50
HHW 78 64 82 67 / 90 80 20 40

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

SHORT TERM...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.

TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.

IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 63 81 64 / 70 20 20 50
HOBART OK 77 59 82 61 / 50 20 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 85 65 / 90 20 20 20
GAGE OK 79 56 80 57 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 80 61 80 62 / 30 20 20 50
DURANT OK 79 65 83 67 / 90 40 20 30

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
088>090.

23/17/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

AVIATION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 63 82 65 / 40 40 20 50
FSM 81 64 82 68 / 50 90 30 40
MLC 78 64 82 68 / 80 60 20 40
BVO 81 60 82 62 / 30 30 20 50
FYV 78 62 79 62 / 30 80 30 40
BYV 80 64 80 63 / 30 80 30 40
MKO 78 63 81 66 / 50 60 20 50
MIO 79 63 81 63 / 30 50 20 50
F10 77 61 80 65 / 60 50 20 50
HHW 78 64 82 67 / 80 80 20 40

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TORNADO LOCATION S OF I-44

NWS NORMAN OK

416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.

THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

MBS

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

23/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

915 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KLAMATH, SOUTHERN
LAKE, SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA MEETING THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS MAY OBSCURE SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON.

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT SUNDAY 24 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTH INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS BASED ON THE RADAR AND LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
SHOWERS ARE LOW TOPPED AND EXPECT ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LINGERING WEST SIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW ALREADY SPILLING OVER THE CASCADES THE MODELS
INDICATION OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY.
WITH THAT HAVE JUST KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM ANY THAT DO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE
FLOW MEETING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
EASTWARD. THE STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH WESTERLY STEERING WINDS SHOWING
MARGINAL STRENGTH TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP EAST OFF THE
TERRAIN. THE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
AND OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST, HAVE BUMPED UP
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT HALFWAY FROM GUIDANCE TO FULL ADIABATIC
HEATING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. /SVEN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASED FOR THURSDAY AS THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY THEN REACH A PEAK WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A LIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH PUSH FARTHER INLAND. BESIDES AIDING THE WARMING, THIS WOULD
BRING A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WARRANTS THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, IT IS UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. AS IS ITS TYPICAL
BIAS, THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING BUT ALSO AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES,
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN
ON SATURDAY. /DW

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1156 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN OHIO...BUT
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MOST OF THE VERY SPARSE CONVECTION THAT
DID FORM THIS EVENING DIES VERY QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL PA. THE
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THIS STUFF EVEN FURTHER.
SOME/SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT IS SEEN AT THIS TIME ON THE SRN
FLANK. IF THIS DIMINISHES AS WELL...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WILL GET
INTO THE CWA...OR CERTAINLY CROSS RTE 219 BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL
PAINT LOW POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND NIL FOR THE EAST. WHILE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS OR SUSQ VALLEY...IT
IS NOT WORTH POPS AT THIS POINT. A MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT IS IN
STORE AND SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

PREV...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 300-400 MB WIND PROGS INDICATE THAT A
WELL-DEFINED...ALBEIT COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING NE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 45-50 KT
JETLET CROSSES NRN AND WRN PENN.

ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE
GROWING CAPE VALUES /LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO PRODUCE INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE GREATEST CHC
OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA.

FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KCBE TO KSEG AND KAVP LINE...THE
PERIOD THROUGH 21Z SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AT THE SE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...AND A
RIBBON OF HIGHEST 850 MB THETA-E AIR ADVECTING EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS THERE LATE TODAY.

SPC PAINTS THEIR MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSRA ACRS ROUGHLY THE WRN
HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS IN TSRA.

TEMPS ARE NEARING THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPR 70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. MDL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE W
COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA.

GEFS MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES WED
AFTN. HOWEVER...MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LYR SHEAR ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE LATEST MDL DATA...SO THE SVR WX
THREAT JUST MRGL...AND THAT`S WHAT SPC COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF
THE CWA WITH IN THEIR DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S- L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. EXPECT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH PA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...REDUCING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
IMPLIES DRIER WX AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR RAINY WX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG AN
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY/MONDAY
AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
SOUTH OF PA.

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 04Z...THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER INTO
W PA. MAJORITY OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM KBFD-KJST AFTER 10Z. VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE SO FAR /EXCEPT AT KIPT WHERE RAIN
FELL LATE TUE AFTERNOON/ BUT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP A BIT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF CWA.

SREF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS /AND EVEN NAM MOS HINTS/ THAT THE
LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO LATE MORNING FROM KIPT-KMDT BEFORE A
RETURN TO VFR...MID MORNING ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA BETWEEN
12-18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1022 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PREV...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE GREATEST CHC
OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA.

SPC PAINTS THEIR MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSRA ACRS ROUGHLY THE WRN
HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS IN TSRA.

TEMPS ARE NEARING THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPR 70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S- L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

RADAR QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVE...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLIER RAINS AT KIPT HAVE
PRODUCED SOME EARLY IFR FOG...BUT AS FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS
INCREASES THIS SHOULD TAPER BACK TO MVFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOIST FLOW BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR FOG/CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARD
SUNRISE. SREF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS /AND EVEN NAM MOS HINTS/
THAT THE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO MID/LATE MORNING FROM KIPT-
KMDT BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR.

AT KBFD...THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE
SLIDES THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSS TSTMS ACROSS CWA
BETWEEN 12-18Z IN WESTERN HALF...AND AFTER 16Z IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT P.M. SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

920 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DOMINANT COAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/SREF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NRN
MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FOR THE GREATEST CHC
OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA.

SPC PAINTS THEIR MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSRA ACRS ROUGHLY THE WRN
HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME SPOTTY 0.25-0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS IN TSRA.

TEMPS ARE NEARING THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPR 70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARM AND
TRANQUIL CONDS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY ALTO CU CLOUDS.
SOME LOWER OROGRAPHICALLY GENERATED CLOUDS AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS WHERE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
AROUND 10Z.

HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN TEMPS...WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES.

A FEW ILL-DEFINED/VERY WEAK AND SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE HEAT OF THIS SOUPY
AIRMASS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 20 PERCENT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. MDL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE W
COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S- L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT P.M. SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...NOW EFFECTIVELY BEING DISCRETE CELLS LINED UP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL. IF NOTHING ELSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRUCTURE WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED DOWNPOURS TO MOST OF
THE YET UNTOUCHED PART OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO. GUSTS HAVE BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA WAS TAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE AND REFLECTED A STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RAP PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO REBOUND WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION IN THE
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO NEW POPS REFLECT THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PRESENT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE THE UPPER
DYNAMIC FEATURES MOVE ACROSS POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT HIGH IMPACT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HISTORY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE UPSTATE SITES
AND KAVL NOT LONG AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND STRONG SWLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LINE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME LOW
ENOUGH TO OMIT...THOUGH REMAIN NONZERO. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AN HR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MRNG BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE DELAYED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT LATE IN THE DAY PROB30 CHANCES
RETURN AROUND THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 84% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% MED 60% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 81% MED 69% MED 74% MED 70%
KHKY HIGH 98% LOW 58% MED 76% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 90% MED 75% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 76% LOW 45% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

755 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...LEWP FEATURE NOW ENTERING THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA.
WHEN THIS LINE HIT KAND AIRPORT HEAD-ON IT PRODUCED A 49 KT GUST AND
HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGE ELSEWHERE. NO LONGER SURE THAT THERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TO PREVENT IT FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MARCHES NEWD AT AROUND 45 MPH. SHEAR MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHTER
HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL STILL
PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT STORM
STRUCTURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR ON LATEST HRRR BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CUES
IMPLY IT IS LIKELY TO SURVIVE FOR SOME TIME.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 89% MED 72% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 94% MED 65% MED 71% HIGH 87%
KAVL HIGH 87% MED 78% HIGH 80% MED 72%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 66% MED 67% HIGH 98%
KGMU HIGH 93% MED 70% MED 76% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 86% LOW 42% HIGH 82% HIGH 90%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 82 66 86 / 40 70 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 65 84 / 40 70 30 30
CROSSVILLE 65 76 65 77 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBIA 66 81 66 86 / 40 80 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 66 80 65 84 / 40 80 50 40
WAVERLY 67 82 66 85 / 40 80 30 30

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.

WER

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JLH

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JLH

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CJC

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

JLH

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED THE EVENING SHOWER CHANCES TO 20%...BUT THE MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. STILL WATCHING THE NORTH TEXAS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COMPLEX AS IT SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT OVERNIGHT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE STORMS (OR THEIR REMNANTS) COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 30% POPS UP NORTH AND 20% SOUTH...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON THE POPS IN
FUTURE UPDATES IF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER AND GETS CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE A WARM LATE MAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRED AT 6 PM. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT
UNTOUCHED FOR NOW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPARENT SEABREEZE WERE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AT 23Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
INLAND SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ARW FORECASTS THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. THINK THAT THE MAIN SCENARIO WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME...GOING TO ALLOW FF WATCH FOR HARRIS AND
FORT BEND COUNTIES TO CONTINUE THRU 6 PM AS THERE ARE COME CELLS
NEARBY. ATTENTION TURNS TO N AND W TX AS CONVECTION FIRES THERE.
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS DISSIPATING BEFORE EVEN
REACHING SE TX. HOWEVER...LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REMNANTS TO MOVE INTO N & E PARTS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FCST AND LET NEXT SHIFT UPDATE WITH TRENDS.

WX ON WED & THURS WILL CONSIST OF WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE NORMAL
EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS AROUND HERE. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY
TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW
GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK
INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BACK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REALLY NOT A BIG FAN OF SEEING THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS TRYING TO BRING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SE TX LATE SAT AND SUN. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT THE
STRONG TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE WILL HELP MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THIS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE WX PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE...OTHER CONCERNS
THESE SEVERAL DAYS INVOLVE RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TIDES. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH
TIDE NEAR AND ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 30 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 20 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRED AT 6 PM. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT
UNTOUCHED FOR NOW. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 30 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPARENT SEABREEZE WERE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AT 23Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
INLAND SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ARW FORECASTS THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. THINK THAT THE MAIN SCENARIO WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 30 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
MATAGORDA.

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1227 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will improve as we head through the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will depart all terminals to the east,
with ceilings rising above 3000 feet. With this clearing southwest
to west winds will gust to near 20 knots through sunset. Overnight
ceilings will drop into the 1000 to 2000 feet range at all terminals
except KABI. Here, numerical guidance suggests some of this stratus
may approach Abilene. For now we`ve added a scattered cloud group to
account for this possibility, and will monitor trends in the data
this afternoon.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move over West Central Texas TAF sites this morning. The best
potential is over KABI 15-18Z. Have VCTS at most sites this
morning...with KABI down to 2 miles in moderate rain 15-18Z. MVFR
stratus should rise to VFR at most sites by 18Z, persisting until
21Z at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise returns after 6Z tonight from
south to north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

.Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...

A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this
morning, with strong lift associated with it. The atmosphere was
already unstable with SPC RAP most unstable CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG.
0-6KM bulk shears were 40-50 KTS. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible, even the potential for a tornado. The main threat, however
will be locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, as precipitable
water increases to 1.0-1.5 inches. Heavy rainfall on already
saturated soils will have the potential for flash flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect through 4 PM CDT.

Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms
over I-20 corridor...from Sterling City to Brownwood this morning,
mainly after 7 AM. Another second area of storms may develop east
off the mountains of Mexico... possibly affecting the Junction to
Mason to San Saba areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
continue in the Big Country in the afternoon with more isolated
storms farther south. While the Big Country and southeast sections
will likely have highest potential for thunderstorms, just about
anywhere in West Central Texas will be at risk for severe storms
today with the strong instabilities present.

Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.

(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm
development. Max temperatures will be a little lower because of
more cloud cover.

(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region
could bring another threat for storms over the weekend with
temperatures in the lower 80s.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

Aviation: Doll

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail. Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 59 90 63 / 30 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 86 63 91 68 / 40 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 86 53 91 57 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 93 63 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 60 93 66 / 20 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 82 55 88 60 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA TX 78 43 85 52 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 59 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 86 61 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
WINK TX 87 57 95 65 / 20 0 0 10

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

99/99

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

Strobin

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

84/33

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

..Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...

Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.

(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm development.
Max temperatures will be a little lower because of more cloud cover.

(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region could
bring another threat for storms over the weekend with temperatures
in the lower 80s.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20

99/99/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

Strobin

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

84/33

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

...Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...

Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.

(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm development.
Max temperatures will be a little lower because of more cloud cover.

(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region could
bring another threat for storms over the weekend with temperatures
in the lower 80s.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20

04/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 84 71 87 74 / 20 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 87 74 / 20 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 84 78 85 78 / 20 80 60 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO POP/WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME IN
CONCERT WITH LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF SIMULATED RADAR
FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODEL TRENDS AS WELL REGARDING PRECIPITATION. INITIAL AREA...NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO LWX CWA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE NEXT AREA TO
WATCH IS NOW DOWN IN GEORGIA PACKING QUITE A PUNCH THERE. FEEL
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...ALBEIT IN A
DIMINISHING STATE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 06Z ONWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK WESTERN HALF. USED A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODEL POPS THROUGH 12Z...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN RAIN COOLED AREAS AND A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING
BETTER IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
GRIDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME AND DID NOT NEED ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY NE MAINLY JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE 1000 J/KG ML CAPE EXISTS AND MOISTURE IS
DEEPER NEAR A FAINT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES MODELS SLIDING
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NE...PASSING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND SRN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AXIS...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH LITTLE OVER THE FAR EAST PER RIDGING...AND FAR WEST WHERE IN
BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES. THUS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR A WHILE
LONGER OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING AND LOW TO SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE TRIMMING BACK TOWARD SUNSET.

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO ENERGY NOW WELL TO THE SW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH THAT WILL HELP EJECT A
SHORTWAVE NE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
HOLDING IT TOGETHER OVER THE FAR WEST LATE AND OTHERS FIZZLING
COVERAGE INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. GIVEN SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND PROGGED STRONG 85H THETA-E ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OFF MOST GUIDANCE WILL REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS WEST
AFTER THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WEAKENS. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MAV MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S PER DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND.

WEAK DAMPENING WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWATS ESPCLY EAST...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA WILL FADE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WED
MORNING FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST CAPES APPEAR BEST. POTENTIAL
MORE OF A WEST WIND AND DRYING ALOFT PER LATEST SOUNDINGS COULD
LIMIT THINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.
THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT BUT UPPED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER. HOWEVER OVERALL LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN EVEN LIGHTER
STEERING THAT TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE/SHRA AROUND EARLY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE AREA RESETS IN THE SENSE THAT THE EXTRA INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH IS ALMOST WASHED OUT AND HEADS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS IS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND THERE WILL BE A NEW
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
OUR AREA IN A SCENARIO COMPARABLE TO THE CONDITIONS OF TODAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...SO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE. A ROUGE BIT OF ENERGY COULD GET EJECTED
EASTWARD OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE OR PROLONG
COVERAGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...PROJECTING ACCURATELY WHEN OR IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD BE CHALLENGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE
RIDGE...JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR. ANTICIPATE THIS
FEATURE TO GENERATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT....AND STALL OVER OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BUCKLE BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS THIS EVENING BUT
RADAR SHOWED THE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
KBLF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BROAD SW FLOW WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO KBLF
AND KRNK FIRST AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 11-12Z/7-8AM BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES
KROA.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KLYH AND KDAN BEFORE THE 00Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND
DYNAMICS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
ANY LATE DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

403 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

PER WATER VAPOR/RADAR TRENDS...THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST CO IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIED THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RAINFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDED A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TO A LOW CENTER OVER WEST CENTRAL NE
THEN SOUTH INTO WEST TX. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWEST
FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL WY.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A TRANSITORY LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS.
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL LATE
SPRINGTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL FAVOR STRONGER CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FOR THE NE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON AN
ALMOST DAILY BASIS THAT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOKS TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TO MAYBE CHEYENNE. NICE DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

KEPT TREND OF DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY WHERE WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS ARE INDICATED TO CONTINUE IN THE HRRR AND NAM
THROUGH MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO MVFR
AT SCOTTSBLUFF...CHEYENNE...LARAMIE AND RAWLINS THROUGH MORNING.
FOR CHEYENNE...HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON BATCH OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SCOTTSBLUFF AREA...MOVING IT TO NEAR
CHEYENNE BY DAYBREAK...SO AROUND 10Z WE BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN
FOR CHEYENNE BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO IFR ON CEILINGS
OR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CLOUDS START
TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND EITHER HAVE VICINITY
THUNDER OR CARRIED THUNDER FOR ALL SITES IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DUE TO PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

RECENTLY UPDATED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FORT
LARAMIE IN GOSHEN COUNTY WY. RUNOFF AND ADDITIONAL WATER RELEASES
FROM THE GRAYROCKS RESERVOIR UPSTREAM PUSHED THE STAGE TO MODERATE
SEVERITY AT 8.2 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 8.3 FEET
THIS MORNING. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LARAMIE THIS WEEK
AS THE RIVER FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 7.7 FEET.

FORECAST RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A 0.25 INCH ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TO AS MUCH AS 0.75 INCH OVER WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL RESUME TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

UPDATE...ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET. INITIAL LOOK THRU 00Z
NAM/HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
PASSES NR THE WY/NE STATELINE AS WELL AS INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THINK THAT THIS IS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE...BUT STILL FELT IT WAS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SCATTERED MENTION TO POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
LOOK FINE...THOUGH DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
SPOTS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM FALLING
MUCH FURTHER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS SUPPORT LIGHT TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALMODERATE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...NO LONGER ANTICIPATE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NRN CARBON/ALBANY AND CONVERSE COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRE FOR THESE AREAS AT 6 PM.

OTHERWISE...STILL MONITORING POCKETS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE LATEST SPC MESONALYSIS
SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE REMAINED. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE CONVECTION STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TO WANE CONSIDERABLY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE SINCE THE
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL OBSERVED AT
TIMES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL NEAR CHEYENNE. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING
OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTY AS
WELL...WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ON RADAR. COULD
STILL SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE STRONGEST STORM SO FAR
THOUGH IS OVER NORTHERN SIOUX COUNTY WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD DAWES
COUNTY WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
AND WILL WEAKEN. SIMILARLY...THE SFC LOW WILL STEADILY TREK
NORTHEAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW BEHIND THE LOW. OVERALL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE NW FLOW
IN PLACE...DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE CWA WHICH
WILL REDUCE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISO-T LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN FEATURES.

A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY
BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND HIGHER
TEMPS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH PERIODS
OF LLVL UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW / LESS
THAN 25 KTS AT H5 / WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WED-THU. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SEVERE STORM...BUT ANYTHING ORGANIZED APPEARS UNLIKELY. EXPECT DAILY
HIGHS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. H7 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 5 C SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGING ALOFT AND
A PUSH OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY GIVE US A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

KEPT TREND OF DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY WHERE WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS ARE INDICATED TO CONTINUE IN THE HRRR AND NAM
THROUGH MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
MVFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF...CHEYENNE...LARAMIE AND RAWLINS THROUGH
MORNING. FOR CHEYENNE...HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SCOTTSBLUFF
AREA...MOVING IT TO NEAR CHEYENNE BY DAYBREAK...SO AROUND 10Z WE
BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR CHEYENNE BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO IFR ON CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CLOUDS START TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND EITHER HAVE VICINITY THUNDER OR CARRIED
THUNDER FOR ALL SITES IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY
EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND NEAR FORT
LARAMIE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER AND FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...MJ/RJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

236 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
226 AM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY...
THUR CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY...WITH THE MID-LVL FLOW
REMAINING RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
EAST BY EARLY THUR MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE
EARLY THUR...UNFORTUNATELY THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW THIS
FEATURE TO LINGER. BY THUR AFTN SFC FLOW WILL BE TURNING
SOUTHERLY...AS THE MOIST CHANNEL POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE THUR NGT...AS A LOBE OF MID-LVL VORTICITY
PUSHES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SEND RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY LATE
THUR. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE
WESTERN CWFA BY LATE THUR NGT.

PRIOR TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP RETURNING...TEMPS SHUD EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRADIENT MAY BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR FAR NORTHEAST IL
PRIOR TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING IN THE AFTN HOURS. SO TEMPS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IF THE ONSHORE
FLOW IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING COUPLED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT HOW COOL TEMPS ARE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS POSSIBLY NUDGING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO HOLD ACROSS ALASKA...WITH A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPER SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A ROBUST MID-LVL
VORT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRI AND CLIPPING THE UPPER
MIDWEST SAT. ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THIS FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A
SERIES OF SFC WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FRI. THEN A STOUT SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH FRI NGT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE LARGEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP FRI INTO SAT MORNING.
THIS SETUP IS IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING
CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE EAST WITH WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH PRECIP SOUTH BY MIDDAY
SAT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS SAT MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND
THE UPR 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH ONLY LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO THE
PRIOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE WEEKEND
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO FEED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL KEEP MODERATE SWLY WINDS OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN IL IS GENERATING SCT SHOWERS...WHICH IN TURN...ARE
GENERATING SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WIND FIELD. AS THE SHOWERS PASS
EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT THE GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ARND 10KT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO ERN IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...BUT MAY SFC OBS INDICATE SCT LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR
LEVELS...SO THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE MVFR CIGS.

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST.
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAY POSSIBLY BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP INLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING...LET ALONE REACHING INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT
ORD/MDW. HOWEVER...SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...ONLY VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO...ANY
POTENTIAL SHRA COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
226 AM CDT

SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LINGERING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WEAK SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THE GRADIENT MAY
BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR
LIFTING NORTH OVER THE LAKE...SOME POCKETS OF FOG MAY PERSIST.
THEN WITH LESS WINDS EXPECTED THUR...AREAS OF FOG COULD RETURN.

SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THUR MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST THUR AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
AND POTENTIALLY VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THUR...THEN
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SOLIDIFY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE THUR
NGT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SAT
MORNING...THEN STEADILY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGING ARRIVES SAT EVENING...WHICH COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE THE FETCH AND QUICKLY BUILD
WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IL AND NORTHWEST IN SHORELINES AND LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1253 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
908 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER WI...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
253 PM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOCAL AREA WILL START OUT FIRMLY UNDER MID/UPPER RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT
DESPITE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND FAIRLY EARLY. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS (ESPECIALLY IL SHORE) IN THE UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MORNING AND THEN AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. SHRA AND MVFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
417 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS EVENING...IN
THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER MUCAPES/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE STILL DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AS A STRONG VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IA. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA TOWARDS
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 79 62 77 / 70 60 50 50
GCK 60 80 60 76 / 60 40 50 50
EHA 60 81 57 76 / 50 30 40 40
LBL 61 81 61 78 / 60 60 50 40
HYS 63 79 62 76 / 70 60 60 60
P28 64 79 64 77 / 70 60 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 82 63 79 / 10 60 60 60
GCK 55 81 61 80 / 20 50 60 40
EHA 54 81 61 81 / 50 30 50 30
LBL 57 82 62 81 / 20 50 60 60
HYS 56 81 64 79 / 10 50 70 60
P28 60 82 65 79 / 10 50 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AS EXPECTED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND
MIDDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AS A COOLER...DRIER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN INTACT TIL EXPIRATION.

THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTSOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF IT SURVIVED ALL THE
WAY TO OUR REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN THERE WITH
LESSER/NO POPS IN THE NORTH.

GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PUMPED UP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS AND A LACK OF ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTION GOING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO WILL KEEP
THE LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES POPS GOING.

WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY...FIGURE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. BUT...THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STREAM OVER
THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST
JUST TO BE SAFE. ELSEWHERE KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH MIDDLE 80S FORECAST...AND UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. NUDGED LOWS DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EACH
NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LINGER AWHILE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS OUT WEST PHASE AS THEY EVENTUALLY TRY TO MERGE OVER THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION. BY MIDWEEK...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING
ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM ENDS UP OVER OK/TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER OK/TX WILL QUICKLY SCOOT NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SO IT REALLY ENDS UP BYPASSING THE
AREA. SO AS FAR AS POPS ON FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE MERELY
BASED ON AIR MASS TYPE POP UPS. HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHER ON POPS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
JUST TO OUR WEST AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE ENTERING OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLIER...WILL BE PHASING WITH OTHER SUBTLE
WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW MODEL RUNS ARE
ADVERTISING A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN OUR
VICINITY. BUT I CAN ALSO FORESEE MODELS SETTLING DOWN A BIT WITH
THE BUSY UPPER FLOW AND WE COULD END UP DRIER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF
IS INDICATING).

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT THEN DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z-02Z, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RST
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN MCS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY IT LEAVES BEHIND ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT 40-50% ACROSS THIS REGION AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO
KEEP 30-50% COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
IS SUBJECT TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DON`T REALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

DML

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 88 70 86 70 / 50 30 50 20
LCH 87 73 85 73 / 40 20 40 20
LFT 87 71 86 71 / 50 20 50 20
BPT 86 74 85 74 / 30 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

140 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW PRES OVER NE WI WILL LIFT NNE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING OCNL SHRA TO THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHRA AND
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENSURE LIFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KSAW THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCMX WILL DROP TO LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS BECOME NWLY...WHICH IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PERIODS OF
VLIFR AS WELL DURING BREAKS IN THE PCPN. EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA EXIT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS TIME
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY SPARK SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME PCPN IN THE AREA THAN KCMX DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY BUILD UP IN THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MI. ONLY
INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON/TITUS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
COMPACT CIRCULATION ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WI. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS PUSHING
INTO EXTREME WESTERN MN...A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES IF ANY
CU AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED POPCORN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 750MB AND
THE MAX T FORECAST WAS BASED OFF A MIX DOWN FROM THIS LEVEL...AND IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN PART DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY MOISTENING THE SURFACE.

NORTHWESTERN WI STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
TODAY...STILL IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEPARTING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...EVALUATION OF SEVERAL HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA TODAY. THE HRRR IS THE MOST
CONCERNING AS EVERY NEW HOURLY RUN THAT HAS COME IN OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 80S
WILL BE REACHED AND SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE 700-300MB LAYER. I
DON/T FEEL CONFIDENT IN THUNDER ACTUALLY DEVELOPING GIVEN THE
RIDGE PUSHING IN...BUT GIVEN THAT THE
HRRR/ARW/NMM/MPXWRF/HOPWRF/NSSL WRF ALL ARE TRYING TO GENERATE
POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR JUST A FEW
HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

WE`LL QUICKLY GET BACK IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE
PRECIP WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FAR WESTERN MN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT
HEADS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED H7 LOW FORMING OVER EASTERN NE AND IA ON
FRIDAY. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LYING ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. IN ADDITION...RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS. THIS IS IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR MPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE END OF MAY. IN FACT...THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE IS 1.54 INCHES.
HENCE...LIKELY POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
TRANSITION EAST DURING THE NIGHT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH...WHEN THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
EAST AND SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HERE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAIN ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DIPS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE IDEA FROM THE GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD SPREAD THE ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING THE FA DRY. AT THIS POINT...ONLY LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM IS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY (70) AND
ANOTHER 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY (60). TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW
CLIMB WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR MONDAY...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS WC WI...WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR VSBY IN WC WI BUT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARD ONLY LOW END MVFR
VSBY/HIGH END IFR VSBY FOR BOTH KEAU/KRNH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS STARTING FROM THE SW/WSW...THEN MORE
W/WNW WED MORNING/AFTN. SOME GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN EC MN/WC WI
DURING THE AFTN.

KMSP...

SOME MVFR VSBY THIS EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION
CONCERNS WITH WINDS SW TONIGHT...BECOMING W/WNW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

329 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southeast through region
today. Initial activity over northern portions of forecast area to
exit before zone issuance. Next round firing up over southwestern MO
and moving east northeast towards forecast area. HRRR keeps activity
along and south of I-70 this morning before diminishing. So highest
pops will be over southern portions of forecast area. Otherwise,
warm conditions to persist with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak ridging to build in tonight with precipitation tapering off.
Did keep slights/low chance pops for southern portions of forecast
area, but for the most part forecast area should be dry overnight.
On Thursday, more vigorous shortwave to approach from the
southwest. Will see increasing pops with best chances over central
and southern Missouri during the day, then chances to increase
beginning Thursday night as deepening upper level trof over the
Rockies begins to slide towards region. Best chances will be
Friday through Saturday, before tapering off on Sunday.

Highs will be in the 80s for the rest of the work week with lows in
the 60s. Cooler air to filter in behind this system with highs only
in the upper 60s on Sunday, then warm back up into the upper 70s to
low 80s by next Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

Isld/scttrd SHRAs will continue to dot the area thru the prd. Weak
forcing along a diffuse bndry will keep sporadic precip percolating.
Current activity across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL should slowly
dsspt/move NE after 6Z. Guidance hints at another batch of convection
dvlpng across SW MO tonight. This precip, if it dvlps, will move
NE but appears to remain south of the STL metro terminals. Limited
coverage precludes mention attm. SHRA coverage may increase Wed aftn
with the highest coverage expected to be east of the STL metro. Winds
will become wrly Wed mrng.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd though there will be isld/scttrd SHRAs. A weak
bndry will push thru the terminal drng the late mrng allwoing winds
to become more wrly and taking the better chance of rain with it.
Limited coverage precludes mention in the fcst attm.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1152 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Currently monitoring southeast Kansas and western Missouri for the
development of deep convection over the next several hours.

A low level jet was strengthening across eastern Oklahoma
overnight, which will trigger thunderstorms across southern
Missouri.

We expect this trend to continue into the Ozarks into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends tonight.

A weak disturbance was approaching the region from the west, and
is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the night.

Any storms that directly impacts an airport will temporarily create lower
flight conditions with reduced visibilities. There is also a risk
for damaging wind gusts and a marginal risk for large hail with any
storms that can become organized.

Otherwise look for southerly breezes at 5 to 10 mph over the next
24 hours.

Safe travels.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

230 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AFTER TODAY...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY TO NORTHEAST
ELKO COUNTY HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH ALL NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ELKO AND
SPRING CREEK AREAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM PDT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
ABUNDANT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS EVER SO SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS THE
LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. THE HRR AND RAP MODELS PICKED OUT THIS
SHORT WAVE EXTENDING OFF OF THE MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER
ID/WA/OR. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO MOVE THE MEAN LOW FEATURE
IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FASHION. THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE MEAN LOW FEATURE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWFA AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AREAS AS WELL...THE EXCEPTION
BEING MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THEN AS THE MEAN TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER
WYOMING...YET ONE MORE WEAK SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY FOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE REALLY
IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA...
WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH EITHER
MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/94/94

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT SOME SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL... WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF STORMS IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

BTL/CC/TRW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

BTL/CC/TRW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
NOT RETURN BEFORE DAYBREAK. THAT SAID...HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHRA REDEVELOPING OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND THE NC MTNS.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED WORDING FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURNS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
FORECAST AS THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE LOWERED LOWS IN RESPONSE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

945 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...NOW EFFECTIVELY BEING DISCRETE CELLS LINED UP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL. IF NOTHING ELSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRUCTURE WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED DOWNPOURS TO MOST OF
THE YET UNTOUCHED PART OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO. GUSTS HAVE BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA WAS TAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE AND REFLECTED A STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RAP PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO REBOUND WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION IN THE
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO NEW POPS REFLECT THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PRESENT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE THE UPPER
DYNAMIC FEATURES MOVE ACROSS POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT HIGH IMPACT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HISTORY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORTICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHUD NOT RETURN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS MVFR THEN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK AS IS OCCURRING
TO THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH THESE TRENDS AS WELL. EXPECT A RETURN TO
MVFR BY MID MORNING...THEN LOW VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON TSRA EXPECTED
AGAIN...AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 DURING THIS TIME. S TO SW WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...IFR ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SC SITES...BUT HAS BEEN
IN AND OUT THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED IFR BUT KEPT TEMPO
VFR EARLY FOR THE BRIEF SCATTERING. KAVL AND KHKY SHUD SEE MVFR THEN
IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHUD SEE A SLOW RISE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN...SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30. HAVE
KEPT LOW VFR FOR THE EVENING...BUT RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN BEFORE
THE END OF THE PERIOD. S TO SW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 69% LOW 55% MED 65% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 56% MED 70% MED 60% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 62% LOW 43% MED 60% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 69% MED 70% MED 70% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. LATEST DATA
INDICATING TSRA INITIATION MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER SO MOVED UP
TIMING OF VCTS TO 16/17Z. LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

301 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY SOME CIRRUS AT
PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY WITH A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS POPS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY...BOTH HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ARKLAMISS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST. THUS HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FORECAST
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR A QUICK WARMUP AND WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS. FCST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE MLCAPE
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS...SO A FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE MID
STATE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH COOL
DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS IS COMMON WHEN WE MOVE
INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 66 87 67 / 50 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 84 66 85 66 / 50 30 30 20
CROSSVILLE 80 63 81 63 / 40 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 84 65 86 65 / 50 30 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 82 65 84 66 / 50 30 40 20
WAVERLY 83 65 85 66 / 50 30 30 20

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES POPS A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF STORMS CONTINUING TO EDGE THIS WAY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED THE EVENING SHOWER CHANCES TO 20%...BUT THE MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. STILL WATCHING THE NORTH TEXAS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COMPLEX AS IT SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT OVERNIGHT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE STORMS (OR THEIR REMNANTS) COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 30% POPS UP NORTH AND 20% SOUTH...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON THE POPS IN
FUTURE UPDATES IF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER AND GETS CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE A WARM LATE MAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRED AT 6 PM. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT
UNTOUCHED FOR NOW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 73 86 73 / 40 40 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 88 74 87 74 / 20 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 86 78 85 78 / 20 30 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

237 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS WELL INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WITH MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE AOA 5KFT AGL...BUT THERE IS A
SCT LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT THAT MAY BECOME BKN ATTMS ESP WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN`T RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. ONCE SOLAR
INSOLATION BEGINS WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFKIT AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS BRING MVFR CLOUDS INTO
KLYH AND KDAN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL BE BUT ANY MVFR CLOUDS WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT MAY
BRIEFLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVR MTNS AND PROGRESS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

507 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL LATE
MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN SOME AREAS IT
HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM THE WEST HAS
SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NORTH TO
SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER BURN-OFF TODAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S
INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST READINGS FOR
THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL ONLY
SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO SUMMER -- UPPER
50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING
OFFSHORE MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
SAN BRUNO GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT
SAID... STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING... THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
GENTLE SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENTLE SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...AND IN FACT SHOW
SOMEWHAT OF A MIDLEVEL CAP/WARM LAYER. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD BE HINTING AT A
LITTLE LESS SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS...EVEN PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S...SOME UPPER 80S. FORECASTED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SUPPORT CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF THUDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE.

SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY PULSE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
LINE/BROKEN LINE AND ELEVATED CORES DROP DOWN AS ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS...AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS LAG
FAR TO THE WEST...AND CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SOME MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
MARGINAL SEVERE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. ALSO A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

MORE BIG PICTURE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON
THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

652 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

550 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY BASED ON HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPE. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE IN
MN. IN WI HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE VCSH AS CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER THERE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
WESTERN MN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

KMSP...BEST PERIOD FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE FROM 20Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR ONCE THIS MORNING FOG LIFTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 68 85 68 / 77 32 47 20
MERIDIAN 85 67 85 67 / 81 35 48 20
VICKSBURG 87 69 86 69 / 99 34 47 20
HATTIESBURG 86 69 87 69 / 80 35 53 20
NATCHEZ 87 69 85 70 / 99 36 51 20
GREENVILLE 86 69 85 70 / 99 33 42 20
GREENWOOD 85 69 85 69 / 72 32 46 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/CME/22/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Recent radar trends are showing showers moving up toward KCPS and
just south of KSUS/KSTL. Went ahead and added TEMPO groups for
MVFR conditions in -SHRA through 14Z at KCPS, and added VCSH at
KSUS/KSTL. Expect this area of showers and thunderstorms to move
out of the area by mid morning leaving the rest of the TAF period
dry with VFR conditions. Winds will turn light and variable at
most of the terminals tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: The terminal will lie on the northern periphery
of a large area of showers and thunderstorms through 14Z. Have
added just VCSH for now with just VFR conditions, but may need to
amend to add -SHRA if showers move farther northward than
expected. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions the rest of the
TAF period.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

955 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE
PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS REGARDING CONVECTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THE 11-13 UTC HRRR RUNS
AND 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS INITIATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AROUND 19 UTC FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE 13
UTC RAP DEPICTING ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. THEY BOTH DEPICT A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING EASTERN MONTANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW OUT WEST. THEREFORE...TWO ROUNDS OVER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...COLD FRONT INDUCED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
TROUGH/LOW INDUCED THIS EVENING.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE RAP AND NAM HAVE
NEARLY 1000 J/KG CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER LACKING AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. THEREFORE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE RATHER
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH PWATS AROUND
1.0-1.25 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS MY NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV AND NORTH OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC HIGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 30S.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/EC MODELS STILL PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR
FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME ONCE OUR FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A VERY ACTIVE/WET 2-3 DAYS NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL TERMINALS LIKELY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

942 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER ISOLATED...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

CJC

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

06Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEM SHOWED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY 15Z...AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE 10Z HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SCT TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT COVERAGE... PROBABLY BEST TO HOLD OFF ON
TEMPOS UNTIL A CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH EXIT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

902 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24 HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT SAID...
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING...THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

403 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HRRR ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EARLIER HRRR ALSO INDICATED
POTENTIAL FOR SCT DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT
OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD SE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL
INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
THURSDAY.

ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AFTER
20Z AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. THUNDER WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 19-20Z. STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY IMPACTS THE AIRPORT AFTER SUNSET.

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DO NOT THINK SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25 KT TO NY HARBOR OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA
THERE. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AT OR JUST OVER 20 KT IN THOSE AREAS.
NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT
TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD
EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NYS
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF 125 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 61 80 61 / 50 60 60 70
GCK 82 59 81 58 / 50 60 40 50
EHA 85 58 80 56 / 40 40 30 30
LBL 85 60 81 60 / 40 50 40 50
HYS 80 61 79 60 / 50 60 60 70
P28 82 64 79 65 / 50 70 60 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR OUT STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LEAVING
A FEW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVER THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ALTOCU AND CIRRUS
CANOPY DUE TO LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE POLAR JET WILL COMBINING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AEX AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT TNITE AT AEX...CLOSER TO
MORNING AT LCH, BPT, AND ARA. LOWERING POSSIBLY TO LIFR AT ARA DUE
TO THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS THERE.

SWEENEY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

DML

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 85 70 86 70 / 100 20 50 20
LCH 84 73 85 73 / 100 20 40 20
LFT 85 71 86 71 / 100 20 50 20
BPT 84 74 85 74 / 100 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 85 70 86 70 / 100 20 50 20
LCH 84 73 85 73 / 100 20 40 20
LFT 85 71 86 71 / 100 20 50 20
BPT 84 74 85 74 / 100 20 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

330 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUCTION
W/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT.
0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR WILL MAINLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB FOR FOG/STRATUS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

417 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
NW WI COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER AREAS
WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRIGGERED SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM YQT TO DLH AND NEAR THE WI BORDER FROM LNL
TO IMT.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WI
BORDER. SOME SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER MAY ALSO SURVIVE INTO NW UPPER MI THIS EVENING BUT WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MLCAPE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE
SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...WITH COOLING BY LATE EVENING THE
REST OF THE PCPN WILL END.

WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES TO THE EAST SW
FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES.
EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 80F OVER THE WEST HALF
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOL/SCT TSRA OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 0-
6KM SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
ERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT CMX TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1253 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

STILL SKC AROSS MOST OF MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE HIGH BASED CU DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELITE TRENDS AND THE TOTAL LACK
OF CU DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT...AND IF ANY WERE TO OCCUR THEY WOULD
BE ISOLATED...LEFT SHRA OR TSRA OUT OF ALL THE TAFS FOR NOW.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP AROUND 8KFT BY 20-21Z. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1235 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Byrd

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

VFR conditions expected into Thursday morning at all TAF sites.
Light west to northwest winds this afternoon will become variable
around sunset...then southeasterly Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings
near 3000 feet AGL will move into KCOU TAF site by around 15Z
Thursday...and reach the KSTL metro TAF sites by around 20Z.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions with light west winds this
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable overnight...then
southeasterly by around 15Z Thursday. Ceilings around 3000 feet
should approach the TAF site by 20Z Thursday.

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

326 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE....NAMELY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN THEIR GOOD HANDLING OF THE EVENT THUS FAR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THIS EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 09-11 UTC.

FOR THURSDAY...SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR MARGINAL THREAT AREA IN THE
DAY TWO OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A COOL FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...A COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND POTENTIAL FROST. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COMMENCES SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES WERE USED
FOR MOST FIELDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL TERMINALS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

306 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHWOING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

105 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. AS OF 18
UTC...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
CUMULUS FIELDS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO GROW IN VERTICAL EXTENT
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH THE 14-16 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF ON POPS A TAD THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE ND/MT BORDER. BROUGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING CONTNIUES TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING CAPES LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY AND CIN IS A BIT STRONGER...BUT TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY
WOULD ERODE ANY CIN AROUND 21Z. HI RES MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
ACTIVITY VERY SCT IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT THINKING
THROUGH 06Z...WHEN ATTENTION TURNS TO INCOMING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER WAVE AND TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT. ONLY CHANGES
TO THURSDAY AT THIS POINT (HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED 12Z ECMWF) WILL
BE TO GO MORE TSTMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS
DUE TO SHOWALTERS BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY.
SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS
SHEAR VALUES. THEN NAME CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A
HAILER OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MORE DISCUSSION ON TOMORROW
WITH 21Z FCST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

407 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS THE
EVENING HOURS. TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR HAS IT EAST BY ABOUT 2-3Z.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT POST COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR MOS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST. CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST
HALF. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST..REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. LIKELY POPS REASONABLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT COMES BACK
NORTH. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF
TIMES THE MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS IN
THESE PATTERNS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE (15-30 POP) EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE CAN SEE A BETTER TREND IN THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS VEERING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR
FOG THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE EARLY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
MARINERS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COMES AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

103 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INCLUDED TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT BOTH OKC AND OUN.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE 4KM NAM AND OPERATIONAL NAM INDICATE THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSPS/KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT THESE
SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

LATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
DID NOT TO MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAHALE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FG HAS FORMED ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE W EDGE OF
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS FG APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF W OK...AND A FEW MAY AFFECT TAF
SITES. IN PARTICULAR...A RATHER STRONG TSRA WILL PROBABLY PASS
OVER OR NEAR KLAW AROUND 12Z. THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID- TO LATE-MORNING. NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z IN SW OK. THESE TSRA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OUT AND ADVANCE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY W AND N OK AND THE KSPS AREA...BUT A
FEW MAY REACH KOKC/KOUN THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BR/FG MAY FORM
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
POST-THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WILL BE...ANY FORECAST OF BR/FG WOULD BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESS.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE LEFT A SITUATION SIMILAR TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER VERY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM GENERATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIVES IT WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE IGNORED THE NAM FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE GEOGRAPHIC OR TIMING COHERENCE. THIS CHANGES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE OVERALL.

BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL FINALLY SHUT
DOWN THE ALMOST DAILY BARRAGES OF STORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE VERY WET GROUND...THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
MORE COMMON THAN IN A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. SIMILARLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED...AS THE HEAT IS USED TO EVAPORATE WATER RATHER THAN
HEAT THE GROUND AND ADJACENT AIR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 65 80 66 / 40 40 50 60
HOBART OK 84 64 78 63 / 40 50 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 65 82 66 / 50 40 40 70
GAGE OK 83 62 80 61 / 40 50 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 80 66 / 30 40 40 50
DURANT OK 82 66 82 67 / 60 40 40 60

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/84/10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY`S
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED A BIT BY A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT...THE BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SHIFT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HRRR SHOWS A RATHER
WIDESPREAD SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
OVERNIGHT. THUS...POPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WISE...WE ARE ONLY UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
DROP TO BELOW 1F FOR MANY AREAS. ALSO...NUMERICAL DATA SHOWING
SOME LOW VSBY CATS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

ON THURSDAY...18Z CAP EROSION LOOKS PRONOUNCED ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE
LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFT AND INTO THE EVE.

CAPES LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ALOFT
COME MORE INTO PLAY. AT THAT TIME...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD
FRONT TO GAIN SOME SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM TOWARD OUR AREA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA...IT WILL STALL
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ALOFT...MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOW DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE STALLED OUT SFC FRONT...WOULD ORDINARILY
POSE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED DEEP MOISTURE REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL OF COURSE KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN.

EXT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
MULTI-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL...WITH HEIGHT
VALUES ON THE ELEVATED SIDE. THIS EQUATES TO A WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 85 65 86 / 30 40 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 65 86 64 85 / 30 30 20 40
CROSSVILLE 61 78 62 78 / 40 50 20 40
COLUMBIA 64 85 65 86 / 40 40 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 64 84 64 84 / 40 40 20 40
WAVERLY 65 86 65 85 / 30 30 20 40

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

CJC

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 86 72 85 70 / 40 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 30 40 30 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 71 82 68 / 40 40 50 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 88 70 86 72 / 30 30 60 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 72 84 69 / 40 40 40 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 20 40 40 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 72 84 69 / 30 40 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 85 71 / 20 40 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 87 74 85 71 / 20 30 40 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 74 86 72 / 20 30 30 40 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST...WAS HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ANY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES
MANAGGE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY
AND TN...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL DIE QUICKLY WELL
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...WHICH WOULD BE
NEAR MIDNIGHT IF IT DID SURVIVE. KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WEST FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY... AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY IN NW NC GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
PER THE HRRR...BUT OTHERWISE DROPPING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS
NOT LIKELY AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE IT.

FOR THURSDAY...WE FINALLY HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL ADD
TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALREADY GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY IN PART BECAUSE OF
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED...BUT STILL NOTHING SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. AT THIS POINT THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WITH
WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP WATER VALUES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT ALL THAT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH ISOLATED AREAS
IF ANY STORMS BECOME LOCKED ON TERRAIN. THIS WILL STILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE JUSTIFYING SOME LIKELY POPS...BUT
STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO MID CHANCE
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
FLATTENING OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND A TROF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A WEAKLY FORCED
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DIURNAL TREND AND MOUNTAIN BIAS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HANDLING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE THE
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWER 80S WEST WITH
THE USUAL COOLER READINGS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO DEVELOPING
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME RIDGING WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SET UP A SLUGGISH BLOCKY PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING BETWEEN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VFR CUMULUS FIELD AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
LAYERS FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF BLUE RIDGE BY 18-20Z...DRIFTING WEST INTO
FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT FAR WESTERN AIRPORTS OF KBLF AND KLWB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
COMPLETELY. KEPT A VCSH MENTION AT KBCB AND KROA...WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR A LITTLE LATER AT KLYH...BUT LEFT OUT OF DANVILLE AS
MUCH GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO GET MUCH THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DYING.
STILL...SOMETHING COULD BE IN VCNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL REST OF TODAY AND EVENING UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES RIGHT OVER AN AIRPORT.

OVERNIGHT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR WEST OF FAR EAST. SOME
MID LEVEL RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW NOW FOR PLACES LIKE LWB AND BCB...AND IF ANY
SITE GETS RAINFALL FROM A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...THEY WOULD SEE
A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE BY MORNING. GENERALLY LEFT THIS OUT...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KLYH.

THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...HARD TO CALL IT EVEN A
FRONT...BUT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY IN MTNS. ADDED VCSH FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 16 OR
17Z...AND GOOD CHANCE THAT NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS WILL ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT SEVERAL OF THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/SK

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
depsite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will remain
in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain on the
burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will enhance
or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south into
Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is just
entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of showers
and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin through the
evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favoraved to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 79 57 82 59 85 / 20 10 10 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 78 54 82 56 83 / 30 20 20 30 20 20
Pullman 46 75 52 82 56 83 / 30 20 20 20 20 20
Lewiston 52 83 58 88 63 90 / 40 10 10 20 20 20
Colville 53 82 54 83 54 86 / 30 20 20 30 20 20
Sandpoint 50 78 51 81 52 80 / 30 20 20 30 20 20
Kellogg 47 76 49 81 53 81 / 40 40 40 30 30 20
Moses Lake 53 86 58 90 59 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 59 86 64 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 51 86 56 87 54 90 / 20 10 10 20 20 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon update: Showers and thunderstorms are starting to
blossom across the region with scattered activity found across the
far southeastern zones including the Blue Mtns...Camas
Prairie...and Central Panhandle Mtns. For these
locations...generally south of a line from Mullan to La Crosse,
thunderstorm activity will be a bit more scattered in nature due
to the proximity of the low pressure system.

North of this line, forcing is focusing on either the terrain or
smaller scale waves. One is currently tracking through
Lincoln/Adams Counties and has resulted in t-storms between Odessa
and Lind. A second one of these midlevel waves looks to be moving
across the North Idaho Panhandle and starting to enter NE WA with
activity a bit more scattered in nature.

Outside these waves, the terrain is acting as the main lifting
mechanism which is leading to slower development and coverage more
isolated in nature.

Most activity will wane with sunset. One item of note is a wind
switch coming into the northern Cascades and Okanogan Country
after 00z. Models indicate a switch to light northerly winds
within the 850-700mb layer and HRRR is picking up on this and
developing a line of convection. This may linger into the evening
and eventually work south into the Upper Basin if it comes to
fruition. Dprg/DT on the HRRR indicate a similar message each of
the last 4-5 runs but have slowed down the timing and intensity.
/sb

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 75 52 80 56 83 60 / 30 20 10 10 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 74 49 79 54 82 56 / 40 30 20 20 30 20
Pullman 70 46 77 52 82 56 / 60 30 20 20 20 20
Lewiston 76 52 83 58 89 63 / 60 40 10 10 20 20
Colville 80 53 84 54 84 55 / 30 30 20 20 30 20
Sandpoint 74 50 78 51 81 52 / 50 30 20 20 30 20
Kellogg 71 47 77 49 81 54 / 70 40 40 40 30 30
Moses Lake 81 53 87 58 90 61 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 82 59 87 63 89 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 82 51 87 55 87 55 / 30 30 10 10 20 20

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED. WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN. BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO. CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR. CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...AND A DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS...
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THRU THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS AND NOW RATHER MOIST LANDSCAPE...
CONSIDERED A BR MENTION IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER ALSO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW...AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS LATE TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 5F OR MORE RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...FOR SFC WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS